Ethnicity and Democracy

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Findings from Afrobarometer Round 6 Survey in Zambia What is Afrobarometer?

• An African-led, non-partisan survey research project that measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance, the economy, civil society, and other topics. • Started in 12 countries in 1999, expanded to 35 African countries in Round 5 (2011-2013). • Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans. • National Partners in each country conduct the survey. In Zambia, Afrobarometer Round 6 survey was conducted by RuralNet Associates Ltd.

WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Where Afrobarometer works Methodology

• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens  All respondents are randomly selected.  Sample is distributed across provinces and urban/rural areas in proportion to their share in the national population.  Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected. • Face-to-face interviews In the language of the respondent’s choice. • Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and over time. • Sample size in Zambia of 1,200 adult citizens yields a margin of error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level. • Fieldwork for Round 6 in Zambia was conducted between 1 and 31 October 2014.

WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Enumerator map

Note: the numbers in the map refer to the number of enumeration areas (EAs) selected in each district. Survey demographics

Unweighted Weighted

Male 50% 50%

Gender Female 50% 50%

Total 100% 100%

Urban 43% 40%

Urban or rural Rural 57% 60%

Total 100% 100%

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6 Survey demographics

Unweighted Weighted Lusaka 19% 17% Central 10% 10% Copperbelt 16% 15%

Eastern 11% 12%

Province Luapula 7% 8% Northern 8% 8% North-Western 5% 6% Southern 11% 12% Western 7% 7% Muchinga 5% 5% Total 100% 100%

WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Survey demographics

Unweighted Weighted No formal education 8% 8% Primary 35% 34%

Secondary 43% 44% Education Post-secondary 13% 13%

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Results WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG

Ethnicity in Zambia Key findings

■ Zambia is a highly ethnically diverse country, with nine out of 10 (88%) chance that if one picked two Zambians at random, they would belong to two different tribes.

■ About one in 10 (12%) Zambians have intense feelings of belonging to their tribal grouping at the expense of national identity.

■ About half of Zambians (50%) have strong feelings of belonging to their ethnic group (tribe) while at the same time feeling a part of Zambia.

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Tribe (ethnic group)

Shona Lambia Shila Ngumbo Sala Chiyaba Tabwa Luchazi Nyika Chikunda Mbunda Ndebele Lungu Senga Chokwe Nkoya Tokaleya Lenje Soli Ushi Lamba Kunda Ila Mambwe Bisa Luvale Nyanja Lunda Lala Tumbuka Ngoni Nsenga Kaonde Namwanga Chewa Lozi Tonga Bemba 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % Share

Survey question text: What is your ethnic community, cultural group or tribe?

Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings

60%

50% 50%

40%

29% 30%

20%

10% 8% 5% 4%

0% I feel only (ethnic group) I feel more (ethnic I feel equally (national I feel more (national I feel only (national group) than (national identity) and (ethnic identity) than (ethnic identity) identity) group) group)

Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a ______[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings? Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings, 2012,2014

59 60

50 50

29 30 27

8 10 5 7 4 4 4 2 1

I feel only (ethnic I feel more I feel equally I feel more I feel only Missing group) (ethnic group) (national (national (national than (national identity) and identity) than identity) identity) (ethnic group) (ethnic group) 2014 2012

Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a ______[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings?

30 26 25 24 21 20

15 12 12 10 8 6 5 5 5 1 0

Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a ______[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings?

Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm

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Democracy in Zambia Key findings

■ A majority of Zambians (74%) say they prefer democracy to any other kind of government.

■ Close to seven out of 10 Zambians (65%) say Zambia is either a full democracy, or a democracy with minor problems.

■ About eight out of 10 Zambians say the 2011 elections were either completely free and fair, or free and fair but with minor problems.

WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Demand for the democratic ideal

100% 90% 80% 74% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 10% 6% 0% Democracy or no Sometimes non- Democracy democracy - it democratic preferable doesn’t matter preferable

Question text: Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? STATEMENT 1: Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. STATEMENT 2: In some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable. STATEMENT 3: For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.

80 71 66 70 63 60 50 40

30 22 18 19 20 10 5 10 2 1 2 4 4 2 3 3 2

One Party Rule Military rule One Man Rule A verdict on Zambia’s democracy

Do not Don’t know Not a understand 6% democracy question 2% A democracy, /democracy with major 3% problem 24%

A full democracy 31%

A democracy, but with minor problems 34% Question: In your opinion how much of a democracy is Zambia today?

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ETHNICITY AND DEMOCRACY: DO THEY MOVE TOGETHER?

Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm Key findings

■ There is an association between ethnicity and support for the democratic ideal (chi square test p-value =0.045).

■ Even individuals with strong ethnic feelings prefer the democratic ideal.

■ There is also a relationship between ethnic feelings and the extents to which individuals think Zambia is democracy (chi square test p-value =0.000).

WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Ethnic feelings and support of democracy

ETHNIC FEELINGS . SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY Sometimes non- Democracy or not: democratic Democracy Doesn't matter preferable preferable I feel only ethnic group .1% .4% 3.8% I feel more ethnic group than 1.1% .5% 6.0% national identity I feel equally national identity 4.8% 2.9% 46.5% and (ethnic group

I feel more national identity 1.0% .2% 3.9% than ethnic group

I feel only national identity 3.8% 2.9% 22.0%

Total 10.7% 6.8% 82.3%

WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Ethnic Feelings and extent of democratization

ETHNIC FEELINGS . EXTENT OF DEMOCRATIZATION A Do not democracy, A democracy, understand Not a with major but with minor A full question democracy problems problems democracy /democracy I feel only ethnic .3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.9% group I feel more ethnic .3% 2.3% 3.1% 1.4% group than national identity I feel equally national .7% 14.5% 21.5% 14.2% 1.5% identity and (ethnic group I feel more national .2% 1.0% 2.3% 1.4% .2% identity than ethnic group I feel only national 1.0% 5.9% 9.0% 13.9% .8% identity

WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Conclusions

• Zambia is an ethnically diverse country, and tribe is not a mere placid label, but an identity with potential to invoke strong tribal feelings that may undermine the sense of nationalism. • The intensity of tribal feelings appear to be growing. • As a policy direction, government should seriously embark on nation-building strategies to reverse this apparent trend towards tribal inclinations. • Though ethnically diverse, Zambian’s prefer democracy to non democratic means of governance.

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Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm