Irish Review (Dublin)

An Appreciation of the Situation Author(s): An Imperialist Source: The Irish Review (Dublin), Vol. 2, No. 13 (Mar., 1912), pp. 1-11 Published by: Irish Review (Dublin) Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/30024016 . Accessed: 14/06/2014 13:09

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eS SvfONTHLY 2fqAGAZINE OF IRISH LITERATURE. ARTe & SCIENCE

MARCH, zpr2

AN APPRECIATIONOF THE SITUATION By AN ULSTER IMPERIALIST

MILITARY phrases are so commonnowadays in Irish, or at any rate Ulster, politics that I make no apology for using one as the title of this article. It may be desirable to explain just what is conveyed to a soldier by this particular phrase. In modem peace training, the Director of the Operations issues to officers concerned two papers, entitled the "General Idea" and the " Special Idea." The "General Idea" explains the whole military situation; the "Special Idea" deals with it only from the point of view of the commander of one of the oppos- ing forces. Both sides receive copies of the " General Idea ": each side receives only its own " Special Idea." Before the imaginary campaign opens, officers are asked to write down their personal and individual opinions upon both the "General" and the "Special Ideas," and these opinions are called " Appreciations of the situation." In terms of politics, one must leave the "Appreciations of the Special Ideas " to the officers concerned--that is to say, to the poli- ticians ranged under the respective banners of Mr. Redmond and Sir Edward Carson. But, since we have no " director of the opera- tions " to issue an unbiassed " General Idea" of the Irish political

VOL. u.-No. 13.

This content downloaded from 185.2.32.109 on Sat, 14 Jun 2014 13:09:08 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE IRISH REVIEW war that is imminent, it may be permissible for an outsider to imagine one and to comment upon it as impartially as any Irishman can be expected to do. There is no need to waste space in setting out the headings of the " General Idea," as they are familiar to every one of us. We therefore proceed at once to offer, for what it is worth, an Aooreciation of the Situation.

(1.) The Irisk Question and the Elections of/ 9ro It is fairly obvious that the Irish Question has been prematurely forced into the front place just now, not by anything that has happened in , but by the condition of British political parties resulting from the 1910 elections, when the Liberal Government were returned to power with a majority so greatly diminished that they were dependant upon Irish Nationalist votes to maintain them.in office. This is most unfortunate from the purely Irish point of view (whether Unionist or Home Rule), since, had the Liberals returned to power with a majority independent of the Nationalist vote, they would have been able to pass their Bill in an atmosphere free from the accusation of "log-rolling" and of "unholy alliances" between such incongruous elements as the Roman Catholic Church and the Independent Labour Party; while, on the other hand, had the Conservative Party won at the polls, the immense change that has taken place in Ireland since 1893 would, beyond doubt, have brought forth a Conservative Home Rule movement which would have dated from the famous " Letters of Pacificus" in the Times during the closing months of 19Io. Mr. Erskine Childers may be right in claiming* for his own party a better grasp than his opponents of the principles underlying all Home Rule Systems; but since the attitude of Ulster dominates the whole problem, and since, in Ulster, English Conservatives can steal the horse while English Liberals cannot look over the fence, one must admit that the prospects of a rapid and peaceful solution are vastly more precarious to-day than they appeared to be previous to the " Framework of Home Rule," p. xvi. 2

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191o elections, or than they would be now, were a Conservative Ministry in charge of the forthcoming Bill. The Conservatives passed a far more drastic measure than any Home Rule Bill when they placed the Irish Local Government Act upon the statute-book; and we can all easily imagine what would have been the attitude of political Ulster towards that Bill, had it been introduced by the Liberals. (11.) The Imperial Argument.

Perhaps there is no single factor in the problem that has changed so much since 1893 as the average Englishman's opinion about the Imperial value of minor self-governing nationalities within the Empire. Looked upon as a nuisance in the early years of the nine- teenth century, and as likely to involve England in a series of greater or lesser "wars of independence," given self-government in the hardly-concealed hope that they would use the power to "cut the painter," the Colonial Nations have been, as it were, re-discovered, and the living principle of our Empire is now seen to be the willing allegiance of free nations with and to each other, under a Monarch who is common to us all. It is pretty safe to say that the relationship that has subsisted between Ireland and England since the twelfth century would have continued indefi- nitely into the future, had not the Colonies proved to us that the existence of Nationalities (new or old) with the widest powers of self-government, has given to the Empire a new meaning and a new strength as welcome as they were unlooked-for. The growth of this modern view of Imperialism practically dates only to the year of the first Imperial Conference in 1887, and the "man in the street" perhaps hardly realised what was happening until the dramatic appearance of General Botha, representing Boer and Briton, at the Imperial Conference and the Coronation in 1911. Nothing in Mr. Childers' book* is of greater value than the short histories which he gives recounting the development of Colonial self- *The Framework of Home Rule. 3

This content downloaded from 185.2.32.109 on Sat, 14 Jun 2014 13:09:08 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE IRISH REVIEW government and the lessons to be learnt from it. There can be little doubt that the Imperial argument for Irish Home Rule will bulk largely in the coming debates; there is no doubt at all that it is the Imperial argument that will carry the Bill, whether under the present Government or one of its successors. It is plain that Ireland will owe her independence and the recognition of her nationality to the very British Empire which some of her "patriots" are still so fond of covering with abuse.

(111.) The Attitude of Ulster.

Ever since the meeting between Lord Carnarvon and Mr. Parnell in I885, English Conservatives have, more or less openly, made overtures towards a Home Rule policy-of which overtures the " " Pacificus letters of 19Io are only the latest, largest and most open instance. If Ulster had accepted the principle, the Home Rule Bill would now be in process of settlement with the hearty approval of both English parties. It is one of the unlucky chances that seem so often to interfere with the wholesome development of Irish affairs, that by the exigency of English party politics the very same people in England who were openly rejoicing in the "Pacificus" proposals fifteen months ago are now forced to oppose them, and, by so doing, to tie their own hands from instantly adopting these or similar pro- posals on their return to office in the event of the present Govern- ment's defeat within the .next year or two. It is the attitude of Ulster, then-not of either English party- which has forced English Conservatives into the fight once more. Since Ulster, and Ulster only, lies across the path which Imperial evolution has made it possible for Ireland to tread, it is of some importance to other Irishmen that they should understand what the Ulster attitude is, and some of the chief reasons for it. In the first place, as already noted, the present Bill is coming from the wrong side of the House; if the Conservatives had been 4

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responsible for it, Ulster would have realised the impossibility of resisting, and would have made up her mind to grin and bear it. Secondly--The chief industries of Ulster (especially the linen, shipbuilding, rope-making and engineering industries) are dependant upon their Export trade for their existence. The Irish demand for Irish linens, for instance, would not keep mills running for more than a few days in the year. The business interests, the cor- respondence, the personal intercourse of the average Ulster manu- facturer are with England, Scotland, the Colonies or foreign coun- tries. He has practically no direct communication with the rest of Ireland, except as a holiday resort. He may hear-e.g., that Sir Horace Plunkett is doing good work for the country, and though he wishes him well, it is with something of the remote feeling one has towards a successful missionary in Uganda. To such a man, the establishment of an Irish Parliament is objectionable because he knows he can make a living under existing arrangements; and he wants to take no risks. His notion of any possible Irish Parliament is that it would be a glorified copy of the Dublin Corporation; and indeed there is no better argument for Unionism than this same body. It is simply a matter of course (and the point of view will be under- stood by the most rabid Nationalist) that every man, whose daily life is spent under these conditions, must be a strong Unionist.* Thirdly, and notoiously, this commercial objection is compli- cated by, and involved with, the "religious" question. There are literally thousands of Ulster Unionists whose whole political faith is built up from one sentence-" I woutd be a Home Ruler to-morrow only for the Church of Rome." It is quite impossible to argue with anyone who adopts this attitude; he agrees with every suggestion in favour of the widest imaginable measure of Home Rule, and then

*The truth of this proposition will be more fully realised by considering the much more moderate opinions held by some of those Ulster manufacturers who depend wholly or mainly upon the Irish market for the consumption of their wares. 5

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closes off the discussion by saying, " But there would be a permanent majority of Roman Catholics in the Parliament, and I do not believe a Roman Catholic's word, even on oath." There is no way of wearing down this sort of bigotry, except the spread of non political and non-sectarian bodies like the Co-operative Societies and the Gaelic League; and, unfortunately (for the second reason given above), bodies of this kind rarely interest the Belfast business man. The evil effect of this eighteenth-century belief about the Church of Rome is intensified and deepened by other factors, e.g.-(a.) There is a small number of Ulster Protestants who quite sincerely believe that they would be burned by an Irish equivalent of the Inquisition if an Irish Parliament were established, in which Roman Catholics would be in the majority. (b.) The reason why this little knot of honest fanatics has so much influence among the Ulster working-class voters is because, broadly-speaking, the superior ranks among working men, skilled tradesmen, foremen, and the like, are filled by Protestants, whereas labourers and the unskilled classes are largely Roman Catholics. Consequently, Home Rule, to say, a fitter earning high wages in an engineering shop, implies a scheme by which the unskilled labourers who work in the same shop with him would be placed in a position to dominate over him. Anyone who knows how deep are the lines of cleavage between the different grades of wage-earners, anyone who understands the working man's ultra-aristocratic tables of precedence, will at once realise how easy it is for a genuine bigot to raise the demon of "religious" hatred among men whose political opinions are formed within the narrow mould of their own social prejudices. Fourtkly-The dwindling ranks of the landlords who have not yet sold their estates still carry on the Unionist tradition; I am not aware that the Parliament Act has in the least reduced the of " prestige a title, or of the landed gentry." Lastly-The average Ulster Unionist believes, rightly or 6

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wrongly, that the two or three most conspicuous Irish defections from Unionism have been inspired more by the hope of political reward than by a real change of political faith. So much for the attitude of Ulster. It is not an easy problem to solve; but there is one striking fact which goes far to prove the contention that the present Bill is merely premature. In spite of a'l the political excitement, Ulster is still being led by the same men who fought out the battle of I893-many of them, indeed, the same who fought the battle of 1886. Not one single young man has risen up as a new leader to take the place of his seniors, the veterans of last century, at the head of the Ulster Unionist forces: There is no Ulster Unionist equivalent for a Devlin, a Kettle, or a Shane Leslie.

(IV.) Will the Bill be Passed by the Present Government?

I believe that among the worst features of the situation as it is at this moment, on the eve of the introduction of the Bill, is that very few people in Ireland are certain that it will pass. The Liberals, no doubt, have a majority at present sufficiently large to force the measure through under the provisions of the Parliament Act; but they have a rocky channel to navigate meanwhile. Who can tell whether the ship will not go to pieces before the two or three inter- vening years are up? It is not the least ironical of the many anomalies in the situation that the present Government will have to try and clean up at least one great mess of their own making; for one of their outstanding difficulties is Finance-and yet, when the Liberals came into power, Ireland was not only paying her own expenses, but " was making a handsome Imperial contribution." It passes the wit of the plain man to understand why the English Liberals did not insist on postponing the Irish part of their Old Age Pensions and Insurance Acts, leaving them to be dealt with by the Parliament 7

This content downloaded from 185.2.32.109 on Sat, 14 Jun 2014 13:09:08 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE IRISH REVIEW which they proposed immediately to set up.* There is more than a chance that their failure to do so may wreck their own fortunes now. Another and perhaps hardly less important difficulty has also been created by the present Liberal Ministry-viz.: payment of members. Quite apart from expenses involved which will presum- ably be inherited by the proposed Irish Parliament, the Home Rule movement in its existing form is led by a pledge-bound Party, whose political cement is cash. Like the Ulster Party, its units are selected, not for their capacity as law makers, but as voting machines; unlike the Ulster members, they are paid for their work by the Party funds, and, being mostly poor men, they have no alter- native but to vote according to the direction of the leaders who control both purse and policy. Should the Government be forced to seek a general election before the Royal Assent is given to the Home Rule Bill, the Irish Nationalist Party, as we know it, will doubtless be as much damaged as that other pledge-bound Parlia- mentary party for whose injury the Payment of Members' Act was presumably passed. Parliament is enormously overwhelmed nowadays-in fact, this is one of the main reasons why delegation of Irish affairs to an Irish authority is being demanded in England; but any one of several items in the programme may raise so much popular objection as to force the Government to resign. Who can tell whether the doctors will or will not break up the Insurance Act? Who can foresee the outcome of the squabble between Manhood Suffrage versus Women's Suffrage? What may develop out of the coal strike? Even on the Home Rule question itself, no man can say whether the unknown Bill will satisfy the , which will have to pronounce upon it. Indications published, up to the time *If the fear of increased taxation under Home Rule could be removed, there are not a few good Protestant Unionists, even in Ulster, who would heave a sigh of relief at any prospect of getting out from under the English torrent of experi- mental and expensive social legislation that seems to be ahead. 8

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of writing, point towards another half-and-half measure, setting up a sort of patronagecommittee to dole out grantsbased on Treasury guessworkabout the amountof moneydue to Irelandfrom Imperially- collected revenues. It is quite possible to make out a very good case for maintaining the Union until the country has had time to complete the agreements still to be signed under the Land Purchase Acts, until the rapidly rising prosperity of the people has overtaken the financial deficit of the moment, and until the veterans-of last century on both sides have given place to the younger generation who will have to conduct the affairs of our country; but it is very hard to make a good case for setting up an authority which would have the minimum of responsi- bility and the maximum of friction between itself and Westminster and which would quite fail to attract the best available men, either from Ulster or anywhere else. Nobody wants Poyning's Law to be fought out over again. (V.) If the Bill Fails to PassP Suppose any one of these many dangers should wreck the forth- coming Bill, how would matters stand? The present Nationalist Party would be broken up-partly, as we have seen, by the Payment of Members' Act; partly because the Sinn Fein and All-for-Ireland parties would consider themselves (with some justice) to have been true prophets, and would no doubt gain an immense accession of strength. The conflict between Nationalists of the Co-operative movement and Nationalists of the T. W. Russell party would prob- ably split a new line of cleavage across the whole body of Irish politics, giving rise to a new party which would contain nearly all the constructive elements of Irish life, whether Unionist or Nation- alist, centreing upon an agrarian policy, and becoming inevitably a Home Rule party in which gradually but the best of our citizens would be very much of one mind. In some such way as this, Ireland might, before the lapse of many years, arrive at a settlement of the Home Rule question by a process not very different from the final 9

This content downloaded from 185.2.32.109 on Sat, 14 Jun 2014 13:09:08 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE IRISH REVIEW settlement of the by the Land Conference, thus complet- ing the great work of peace initiated by the Recess Committee. (VI.) If/ the Bill Passes?

If the present Bill passes, beyond doubt there will be rioting in Belfast and other parts of Ulster. But the first tangible proof that the Bill had passed would be the issue of writs for the first election. I do not believe that Sir Edward Carson's "Provisiohal Government" could succeed in boycotting the elections to the extent that no present-day Unionist would stand; quite the contrary, I am of opinion that the younger men, who are so conspicuous by their absence on the front benches of a Carsonism, would come forward and replace many or most of the existing Ulster members, just as it is to be hoped that many of the rank-and-file Nationalist members would be retired into private life. And then? The first event in the life of the new body would undoubtedly be the opening of the Irish Parlia- ment by the King in person; and who that saw the re- ception his Majesty received last July, will doubt the welcome he would then receive in College Green? Of all the attempted prophecies in this essay, the most difficult is " to forecast the frame of mind of the Loyal Provisional Govern- ment" when they start in to ignore the King's actions in Dublin upon that eventful day. Will they hold a Loyal Demonstration at Craigavon? Or will they march down to Dublin and prevent His Majesty from holding his meeting by occupying the rooms overnight? Imagination boggles at the Gilbert-and-Sullivan situation in which Ulster will find itself should the forthcoming Bill become law while Ulster opinions are voiced by Sir Edward Carson and his stalwarts. Summary and Conclusion. " " Our Appreciation of the Situation must now draw to a close; the conclusions are fairly simple. The Ulster attitude, while it is understandable, is impossible, in the event of the Govern- IO

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ment having sufficient English support to force the Bill through. Once everyone was certain that it was inevitable, a great body of moderate Unionist opinion would separate itself from the extremists, and would show the public that even in Ulster the King's Government would be carried on. But if the Government have, as many people believe, nearly exhausted their supporters in England by the frenzy of drastic legislation which they have passed and promised to pass, then whether through the clamour of Ulster or the unpopularity of the Insurance Act, or through some possibly irrelevant item like the cordite vote that dismissed another Ministry, they will fail to carry their measure; the existing Nationalist Party will break up, and the whole question will have to be dealt with de novo as the greatest and most urgent of all Imperial problems by the Conservative Party in England.

II

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