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Nerang River Catchment Hydrological Study

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Nerang River Catchment Hydrological Study Nerang River Catchment Hydrological Study August 2015 1 Title: Nerang River Catchment Hydrological Study Author: Study for: City Planning Branch Planning and Environment Directorate The City of Gold Coast File Reference: WF50/44/01(P1) TRACKS #41849138 Version history Changed by Reviewed by & Version Comments/Change & date date 1.0 Draft for Consultation 2.0 Reviewed by Don 3.0 Update to Word 2010 4.0 Grammar Review Distribution list Name Title Directorate Branch NH Team PE City Planning Version 3 – August 15 TRACKS-#41849138-v6- Page 2 of 191 REPORT_NERANG_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_MODELLING_REPORT_AUGUST_2 015 1. Executive Summary The main objective of the study was to develop a hydrological model for the Nerang River Catchment based on URBS modelling software, calibrated and verified against available data, and fully documented to a consistent standard. The calibrated model was used to estimate flood discharges for design events ranging from 2 year Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) to Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The hydrological modelling of the Nerang River catchment was undertaken using an approach and methodology consistent with the other catchments in the Gold Coast City area. Previous reports separate Worongary and Mudgeeraba catchments which are contained within the Nerang River catchment. For this study, these models were combined into the Nerang URBS model and reported as one. The model parameters were kept global and the model configuration was kept as simple as possible. The URBS model has been configured based on current catchment land uses. For design event discharges, both current climate and a 10% increase in rainfall intensity to account for the impact of climate change have been demonstrated in this report. Model Calibration and Verification The Nerang URBS model, including Mudgeeraba and Worongary Creeks, has been calibrated against five historical flood events (January 1974, March 2004, November 2004, June 2005 and January 2008) and then verified against another four historical flood events (March 1999, February 2001, May 2009, and January 2013). The selected calibration and verification events cover a wide range of discharges across the catchment. It is worthwhile to note that there is only 1 water monitoring station at Worongary Creek which was installed in 2010. Hence, only the January 2013 event was verified for this creek. The emphasis of the model calibration was to achieve the best possible fit between the predicted and recorded discharge hydrographs at key stations in the Nerang River catchment for the selected calibration events. For these stations, the calibration attempted to match the predicted and recorded flood peaks and volumes, and also the shape of the hydrographs. The calibrated model was then verified by comparing the model predictions against the recorded discharge hydrographs at various gauging stations for the selected verification events using the calibrated model parameters. Rainfall losses were adjusted to achieve the best possible hydrograph shapes and flood volumes for each historical flood event. A single set of model parameters were adopted for the model and maintained for all calibration and verification events. The model parameters were adjusted to achieve the best calibration across all events, resulting in a compromise between model accuracy and model simplicity. It is noted that calibration of the models for individual events can be improved by adopting a different set of model parameters for each of the different events. The adopted model parameters for the Nerang URBS model are shown below: Version 3 – August 15 TRACKS-#41849138-v6- Page 3 of 191 REPORT_NERANG_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_MODELLING_REPORT_AUGUST_2 015 Table 1 Adopted Catchment and Channel Parameter Values for the Nerang River Catchment URBS Parameter Adopted Value (Channel Lag Parameter) 0.1 (Catchment Lag Parameter) 1.5 m (Catchment non-linearity) 0.7 Calibration and Verification Results A reasonable calibration and verification was achieved throughout the catchment, with the URBS model generally reproducing recorded flood discharges satisfactorily for most calibration and verification events. The model calibration is considered generally reasonable, considering that a single set of global parameters were adopted. Gauges upstream of the Clearview gauge and Hinze Dam are well calibrated. The calibration results for gauging stations downstream of Clearview are uncertain because of the unavailability of well rated gauging stations. The gauges downstream of Clearview are affected by downstream tide water levels. In addition, the effects and operation of the Boobegan lock during the historical events are unknown (from a hydrological perspective) to adequately calibrate the model to flows at this location. At Mudgeeraba Creek TM gauging station, the hydrograph timing, shape and volume at this station are good for the November 2004, June 2005 and January 2008 calibration events, although modelled predicted peak discharges are slightly higher than the recorded peak rated discharges. At Worongary Creek ALERT station, only recorded water level is available and hence the calibration is undertaken using a hydraulic model. More information is further discussed in the hydraulic report (Ref 40). Design Flood Discharges The calibrated URBS model was used to estimate design flood discharges throughout the Nerang River catchment based on design rainfall intensity – frequency – duration (IFD) data (Ref 1). Design flood discharge hydrographs were estimated for a range of storm durations from 0.5 hour to the 120 hour event for the 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 2000 year ARI events, and up to the 120 hour event for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) events. The design rainfall data and associated procedures and input data (including IFD, temporal patterns, areal reduction factors, spatial distribution and design rainfall losses) adopted in the study are based on a comprehensive review of the latest available data and information (Ref 2). Version 3 – August 15 TRACKS-#41849138-v6- Page 4 of 191 REPORT_NERANG_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_MODELLING_REPORT_AUGUST_2 015 The peak design discharges estimated in this study have been compared with the peak design discharges reported in previous studies (Ref 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 9). The current study estimates the 100 year ARI peak design discharge at the Hinze Dam outflow (Hinze Dam Stage 2) is 964 m3/s and 1045 m3/s at Clearview, compared with previous studies as seen in Table 2. Table 2 Peak Discharge Comparison, Hinze Dam Stage 2 Estimated Peak 100 year ARI Discharge (mᶟ/s) Hinze Dam Outflow Clearview Current Study 964 1045 Council's 2011 Update (Ref 4) 1045 1099 Hinze Dam Alliance 2009 (Ref 8) 740 ‐ WRM 2010 (Ref 3) 919 968 Council 2001 (Ref 6) 1119 1201 GHD 1999 (Ref 5) 938 1007 It is worthwhile to note that the 1999, 2001 and 2009 studies used unfiltered AWE (Ref 10) temporal patterns and design rainfalls (Ref 1) without the application of areal reduction factors (ARFs). Further, previous studies did not attempt to reconcile their URBS model design discharge estimates with flood frequency analysis (FFA) results, with the exception of GHD study in 1999 (Ref 5) The Hinze Dam design outflows (100 year ARI) estimated by the 2009 HDA study (Ref 8) for both Stage 2 and 3 of the dam are lower than the estimates from this study. The 2009 HDA study (Ref 8) used the Monte-Carlo (i.e. joint probability) modelling approach to estimate design discharges. Rainfall events more frequent than 1000 years ARI used an initial reservoir level at Hinze Dam from a distribution of sample drawdowns derived from simulated reservoir levels. For rainfall events rarer than 1000 years ARI, the Hinze Dam was assumed full to provide a reasonable degree of conservatism (Ref 8). This study used a differing method whereby the design flows were estimated with the dam assumed full at the commencement of all design storm events. Flood Frequency Analysis Flood frequency analyses (FFA) was undertaken using the methodology recommended in Australian Rainfall and Runoff (Ref 11) by fitting a Log-Pearson Type III distributions to annual series of recorded peak flood discharges at Clearview and Neranwood gauging stations. These were the only two gauging stations with a sufficiently long record to undertake a useful FFA for the Nerang River Catchment. The FFA results were compared with FFA results from the 1999 GHD (Ref 5), 2000 GCCC (Ref7) and 2010 WRM (Ref 3) studies. The URBS model estimated peak design discharges were also compared with the FFA results to assess the consistency between the discharge estimates and reconcile any differences from the two methods. Version 3 – August 15 TRACKS-#41849138-v6- Page 5 of 191 REPORT_NERANG_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_MODELLING_REPORT_AUGUST_2 015 The FFA comparative results at Clearview (Pre-Hinze Dam) are displayed in Table 3. The design peak discharges estimated by the URBS model corresponded well to the FFA estimates of the current study for all ARIs up to the 100 year. The FFA results from all studies are relatively similar across all ARIs with the exception of the 50 and 100 year ARI from the WRM 2010 study (Ref 3), which is slightly higher than the current study results. Confidence is achieved in the current studies values of the design peak discharges for ARIs up to 100 years at the Clearview gauging station as a result of the similarity between the URBS and FFA outputs. Table 3 FFA Comparison @ Clearview (Pre-Hinze Dam) FFA Estimated Peak Discharge (m3/s) URBS ARI GHD 1999 GCCC 2000 WRM 2010 Current Current (Years) (Ref 5) (Ref 7) ( Ref 3) Study Study (mᶟ/s) 5 920 965 808 828 868 10 1163 1212 1192 1148 1195 50 1833 1885 2237 1953 2061 100 2182 2232 2754 2335 2399 Joint Probability Analysis Joint Probability approach or Monte Carlo approach has also been undertaken using the Total Probability Theorem approach (TPT) and Cooperative Research Centre – Catchment Hydrology approach (CRC-CH). Joint probability techniques offer an alternative to the design event approach in estimating peak discharges for various ARI events.
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