The social impacts of COVID-19 Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change August 2020 Preface In the short term, responding to In Australia, the focus has appropriately been We need to understand, monitor and document COVID-19 has required governments to on the public health response and cushioning these affects – positive and negative – to ensure prioritise managing the health crisis and the economic impact. The decisions associated our immediate and long-term policy responses responding to the economic fallout. with the economic and health impacts have account of these changes, take advantage of flow-on effects to our society. To date we have the positive aspects, and provide an effective observed negative changes in our broader social mechanism to address the social impacts Societies have grappled with different approaches, indicators, including rates of domestic and family of COVID-19. with varying degrees of success. Though success violence, mental health, child protection, and does not just sit in the hands of government justice system. – the actions of communities, our culture and businesses shape the nation’s trajectory. While Yet it is not all bad news. We have witnessed some nations have adopted effective tracing using social connectedness on a global scale, and surveillance techniques such as facial recognition innovation and adoption of new technologies or CCTV footage, this use of surveillance may be at an unprecedented rate. The use of new less welcome in other nations. Similarly, the social technologies is also changing the way we deliver fabric and understanding of one’s individual role in social services. We have seen restaurants and the contributing to a community response influences arts sector change their business models, new the success of our public health response. apps to connect those who need support with volunteers, and messages of hope that create community connections. I The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change Preface While we have a menu of imperfect choices, all The economic challenges of COVID-19 are deep Lets not just press Restart, with differing consequences, one thing is certain: and broad, but we have the opportunity to use lets press Reset. the choices and trade-offs we make today will these challenges to fast-track positive investments affect our trajectory in terms of the impact on that will ultimately deliver better social outcomes. our nation’s health, economy, environment and That way, when we do get to the other side of social system. We must not lose sight of the social the proverbial bridge, we can be confident that, impacts – to ensure the decisions being made not only did we successfully address the social today and during the recovery phase leverage impacts, but we took advantage of the impetus the social gains, and continue to protect those to change the way we delivery social services Natasha Doherty who are most at risk. across our nation. And maybe this will change our Partner, Deloitte Access Economics collective understanding of how we, as individuals and society, contribute to building a better future. II The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change Contents A framework for social impacts 01 Scenarios of the consequences of social impacts 02 Sector impacts 03 Disproportionate affects 04 Where to from here? 05 III The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change 01 — A framework for social impacts Australia’s public health response to rapidly contain the virus has, thus far, 01 proven to be crucial in preventing widespread infection, death, and an overburdened health system. This ‘lockdown’ style response, 02 involving strict social distancing, working from home, and closing of business 03 operations, has shown to be effective in curbing the spread of COVID-19. 04 05 01 The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change 01 — A framework for social impacts While necessary, these responses have led to The range of policy responses that were So, if we are to plan how we leverage the a range of social impacts. The primary focus implemented can have flow-on effects that impact positive social impacts that have occurred, of decision making has been on appropriately on other areas of our lives. These can be positive, while continuing to mitigate against the negative 01 protecting our health systems and population, such as the uptake in innovative technology in impacts, we need to understand what the impacts while minimising the detrimental effects of a order to remain connected, but can also lead are likely to be. As the crisis abates, but the social closing down of the economy. The social impacts to devastating impacts, such as an increase in impacts continue to be felt, ongoing consideration have, however, been more of a secondary factor family violence. Take for example the corporate of health and social care reforms is key to ensure 02 in immediate decision-making processes, across world: office-based businesses were quick to support for Australians is maintained. community, businesses and government alike. take the lead on encouraging their employees to work from home to promote social distancing – The social impacts operate in a framework of 03 a worthy pursuit. But in making this decision to policy responses and funding decisions, which are mitigate the spread of COVID-19, there can be underpinned by the public health response. significant adverse effects on employees with 04 unsafe home environments. In many cases, these social impacts can also disproportionally increase inequality, by having a greater effect on already disadvantaged or lower socio-economic groups in 05 the community. 02 The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change 01 — A framework for social impacts Economic Business investment Figure 1 aims to conceptualise the economic, social and environmental impacts that occur Employment GDP as a result of the public health response. These 01 impacts then result in the need for policy and funding decisions to be made in order to adapt to the current circumstances and the ‘new normal’ we find ourselves in. This report focuses 02 on the social impacts. Chapter 2 provides an Public health overview of three plausible and relevant scenarios Emissions Civil society response that consider the trajectory and impact of the 03 pandemic on the social services sector. Chapter Environmental Social 3 discusses these social impacts in more detail, Waste generation Education along with sector specific case studies. Deloitte & management DFV 04 Access Economics has also produced separate Child Justice Energy poverty reports which detail both the economic impacts, protection & policing and the environmental impacts of COVID-19 in Australia. Mental health 05 & wellbeing M s it e ig pl at m ing xa po e e licy ons and funding resp 03 The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change 02 — Scenarios of the consequences of social impacts Deloitte Access Economics has explored three plausible and relevant 01 scenarios that consider the trajectory and impact of the pandemic. 02 03 04 05 04 The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change 02 — Scenarios of the consequences of social impacts Economic recovery: A period of economic Each case posits a potential future state by 2.1 Scenario one – mild case shutdown will cause major economic disruption considering possible policy and behavioural This scenario achieves rapid control of the in the short term. However, strong fiscal stimulus responses – and the corresponding impacts virus and a swift return to economic normalcy – enables the economy to successfully go into 01 to health and the economy. These scenarios enabled by strong collective action and a cutting- hibernation while maintaining organisations’ links are described below, alongside a consideration edge surveillance toolkit. to its assets and labour. This supports a relatively of their social impacts on the Australian quick economic recovery to pre-crisis levels the population over the next two to three years. Public health response: Strong social 02 following year. These cases are not predictions; these are compliance leads to a swift reduction in hypotheses about what could happen under transmission, as Australia becomes a model in Consequences to social impacts: A swift different scenarios, designed to frame planning early containment. Rapid technological shifts return to economic normalcy limits the scale of 03 discussions. occur in parallel, enabling at-scale testing and social impact consequences. Having the shortest rigorous digital-driven contact tracing. Widespread period of both social distancing measures and and effective surveillance, coupled with strong economic disruption, the economy returns to the 04 social compliance, prevents a resurgence, even as pre-crisis levels in early 2021. The social impact social distancing measures are relaxed. consequences are most strongly felt in the first two quarters of 2020. 05 05 The social impacts of COVID-19 – Reset not restart: taking advantage of a crisis for social change 02 — Scenarios of the consequences of social impacts Having a shorter length of disruption limits the Having the shortest period of social distancing long-term consequences as the Government are measures and economic disruption – leading able to provide strong fiscal stimulus in the first to less time in confinement and lower levels of 01 six months. Both the economy and the population financial hardship –results in the lowest increase are more resilient to manage disruption in the in family violence and need for child protection. short-term. Those impacted significantly are A quick return to normalcy limits the stress in disadvantaged members of society.