Breaking the Link and the closure Flourishing Towns Research

Breaking the Link 2016

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Carnegie UK Trust is an independent, endowed charitable trust incorporated by Royal Charter. We seek to improve the lives and wellbeing of people throughout the UK and Republic of Ireland by influencing public policy and demonstrating innovative practice.

The Trust would like to thank the following individuals and organisations for their help with this research project:

• Mark Diffley, Ipek Ozgul and Sanah Saeed Zubairi at Ipsos MORI for undertaking resident polling on behaviour during the Forth Road Bridge closure.

• Professor Iain Docherty at the University of and Professor Greg Marsden and Jeremy Shires at the Institute of Transport Studies at the University of Leeds for sharing their research on the impact of the closure.

• The Fife business forums, networking groups, representative bodies and rotary clubs that circulated our business survey to their members, and the Fife business owners and managers who provided us with feedback on the impact of the disruption on them.

• The managers of Fife retail centres for providing anecdotal evidence of the impact of the Forth Road Bridge closure on traders and town centre footfall.

• Staff of Fife Council and NHS Health Scotland for their advice on secondary sources of data to support this research.

The text of this work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license visit, http://creativecommons.org/licenses by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, This report is printed on Mountain View, California, 94041, USA. paper that is FSC certified. BREAKING THE LINK 1

Introduction

The closure of the Forth Road crossings from Fife into the rest Bridge of central Scotland, and a circular On 4 December 2015, transport set of internal road diversions was authorities announced the introduced in Fife to separately temporary closure of the Forth stream car and heavy goods Road Bridge to allow for inspection vehicles. and testing of a faulty truss in its support structure. Commuting workers were encouraged by public authorities After confirmation of a serious to consider alternative routes fault, the bridge operator and modes of transport, in undertook a significant the expectation of significant programme of works to repair the delays to the pinch points of the bridge and make it safe for road temporary transport arrangement. traffic. These works were predicted Hauliers were advised to use other to require a complete closure road routes to reach Fife and the until 4 January 2016. In the event north east. Transport Scotland, the bridge was reopened to light the and traffic on 23 December 2015. It Fife Council all undertook large remained closed to goods vehicles communications operations to into the New Year. prepare residents and travellers for sustained delays and disruptions. During the bridge closure, a traffic redirection scheme was introduced The Forth Road Bridge is a key encompassing multimodal logistical asset connecting Fife transport. Additional trains were to , the , and added to routes serving Fife, and beyond. 24 million vehicles cross new procedures introduced at the bridge each year. Completed Fife stations to accommodate in 1964, the pressures of traffic increased commuter traffic. The volume on the bridge have Kincardine and Clackmannanshire been such that in 2007 the bridges became the principal road Scottish Government committed 2 BREAKING THE LINK to building a second relief have created areas designed to bridge from , at South capitalise on proximity to the Queensferry, and Fife, at North road and rail bridges to allow their Queensferry. This is due for occupants to find work. These are completion later in 2016. often referred to as ‘dormitory’ communities. Fife, interconnectivity and wellbeing Nearly 34,000 residents2 Fife is Scotland’s third largest commute outwith Fife for work, local authority area. Just over which recent research has found 367,000 citizens1 live in Fife. It to generate the equivalent of is a ‘kingdom of towns’, without £1 billion per year in wages and a metropolitan hub and with represent a fifth of Fife’s total its population relatively evenly economy3. Fife Council is currently distributed. Many core services working with local authorities in are spread between the principal Edinburgh, , East towns of , , Lothian, Midlothian and the and Scottish Borders to strengthen (with a host of other smaller Fife’s economic relationship with towns acting as district and parish Edinburgh and the surrounding centres). areas, through the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Fife is a highly interconnected, and Deal bid4. interdependent, community. As its traditional industrial base has 2 Neighbourhood Statistics, Where do we commute to?: Commuting patterns in the changed, many of its residents , 2011 Census Neighbourhood Statistics (online) http://www.neighbourhood. have travelled further to find work. statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc193/#sty=tru Huge new housing developments e&flow=flow1&period=0&fix=S12000015&vi ew=200,-40,630,635&tr=0,0&sc=1 [accessed along the and February 2016] coastlines, and the 3 Fife Today (2015) Forth road bridge is a eastern expansion of Dunfermline, vital £1 billion lifeline to Fife Fife Today (online) http://www.fifetoday.co.uk/news/ local-headlines/forth-road-bridge-is-a-vital- 1billion-lifeline-to-fife-1-3977689 [accessed 1 National Records of Scotland, Fife Council February 2016] Area – Demographic Factsheet National Records of Scotland (online) http://www. 4 Accelerating Growth Edinburgh and South nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/council- East Scotland City Region Deal (2016) http:// area-data-sheets/fife-factsheet.pdf www.acceleratinggrowth.org.uk/ [accessed [accessed February 2016] February 2016] BREAKING THE LINK 3

Infrastructure challenges authorities in every jurisdiction, The Forth Road Bridge closure and is proving a slow and costly tested the ability of a large, highly business. At the same time, interdependent community to challenging environmental cope with a dislocation of one conditions can create highly of its principal infrastructure unpredictable short term events assets. By ‘breaking the link’ with that consume resources and Edinburgh and the south in such generate public hostility. an unexpected way, residents, businesses, workers and travellers Breaking the Link and local had to find different ways to places move around, to commute, and to The Carnegie UK Trust is one of consume. the largest policy-led institutions to have a specific focus on This infrastructure disruption must town communities and their be set in the context of other interrelationships5. Based in current UK logistical challenges. west Fife, the Trust undertakes During the same 2015-16 winter practical and evidence led projects in which the bridge was forced that promote innovative town to close, a season (predicted to communities – most recently, continue into future winters) of through delivering the TestTown6 high winds and flash flooding youth enterprise programme on incidents affected many other 30 high streets across the UK and areas of Scotland, Cumbria, Ireland, and by helping to develop Lancashire and beyond. The evidence tools for towns such as Forth Road Bridge itself suffered Understanding Scottish Places7 numerous other temporary and the Place Standard8. closures and reduced speed operating periods due to weather 5 Carnegie UK Trust, Strategic Plan 2016-2020 Dunfermline: Carnegie UK Trust 2016 http:// disruption. www.carnegieuktrust.org.uk/publications/ strategic-plan-2016-2020 6 TestTown (2016) http://www.testtown.org.uk/ Transport infrastructure across [accessed February 2016] the UK – roads, railways, bridges, 7 Understanding Scottish Places (2016) http:// airport runways – is aging and www.usp.scot/ [accessed February 2016] under pressure from high usage. 8 The Place Standard (2016) http://www. placestandard.scot/#/home [accessed Its modernisation is a priority for February 2016] 4 BREAKING THE LINK

The Trust is interested in asked similar questions from an understanding people’s attitudes employer and business owner to their local places, and how town perspective. This provided a non- and rural communities respond to representative, indicative set of changing circumstances. Whilst results. 16 different business types cities are crucially important were represented in the survey, to economic growth, our town and businesses based in 17 of the communities play an equally vital 19 Fife postcodes took part. role. Our work suggests that they need to act as more than just Data was also collected from a residential dormitories to satisfy range of other local authority, the fast-changing needs and media, transport, business sector expectations of modern citizens. and partner sources to build a stronger understanding of ‘Breaking the Link’ is a research the behavioural impact of this project exploring how Fife’s infrastructure disruption event. local communities responded to the Forth Road Bridge closure. Our aim, in providing these initial The Trust commissioned Ipsos findings, is to contribute to the MORI Scotland to conduct discussion about how places and a representative telephone people respond to unexpected survey of 500 Fife residents, change and what can be learnt to investigating their attitudes to help the longer term development the closure and how it affected of more sustainable and satisfying their behaviour. Participants town and district communities. All were aged between 16 and 75 of the data and survey fieldwork years from across the social for this project was undertaken spectrum, and proportionately in February 2016 – a month after from each of five different areas the reopening of the bridge to of Fife – Dunfermline, Glenrothes, car traffic but during a continuing Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay, period of diverted heavy goods Kirkcaldy, and Cupar. traffic.

Simultaneously, through an invited online poll, the Trust surveyed 63 Fife-based businesses and BREAKING THE LINK 5

Resident behaviour during the Forth Road Bridge closure

The Forth Road Bridge is used in 2015. Of those who had used extensively by Fife residents, the bridge to commute to work, with around one in three poll 72% said they used a different respondents having used the or longer route to get to work bridge about once a week or outwith Fife during the disruption. more (34% in 2015). A similar proportion, 28%, reported using it This behavioural change was also less than once a week but at least identified by the University of once a month in 2015. Leeds and University of Glasgow analysis of commuter activity Work during the closure. The universities’ Around a third of the Fife-based study also found an increased respondents (34%) used the Forth use of the rail network during Road Bridge to commute to work the period, with rail mode share

Work and employment during closure 36%

72% used a different or longer route 14% worked from home 13% changed their working hours 2% stopped working 29% 1% worked from a local facility 6 BREAKING THE LINK

Leisure during closure reported increasing from 17% to 53%. Total car use for commute fell from 65% to 36% for the journey to work9. The universities' survey found that 82% of participants reported the disruption had a negative/very negative impact on them as commuters in terms of both average daily journey times 10 and costs . 24% used a different or longer route to take part in a leisure activity Leisure and social life 8% used a local community centre 5% went to local restaurants or bars Access to leisure and social 4% attended local tourist attractions activities were cited most 3% used local sports facilities, parks or frequently by respondents when walking paths asked about their use of the Forth Road Bridge. Three-quarters of Bridge in 2015 for leisure activities, respondents used the bridge in around a quarter (24%) said they 2015 to meet with family, friends took a longer or different route to or to socialise, and 69% for a take part in a leisure activity over specific social event, such as to the other side of the bridge rather attend a concert or comedy show. than finding a local alternative. Fewer than one in ten said they Of those who used the Forth Road used their local community centre (8%), went to restaurants or bars in their local area (5%), attended local 9 Shires J. et al Forthcoming report. The University of Glasgow and the Institute of tourist attractions (4%), used sports Transport Studies at the University of Leeds conducted a survey on commuter travel facilities or parks or walking paths in behaviour during the closure of the Forth Road the local area (3%) during this time. Bridge in January 2016. The initial findings are based on the responses of 511 commuters out of the sample of 1242. The research team Shopping anticipate that the survey was most likely completed by those experiencing the most 71% of respondents travelled adverse impacts and, as such, the findings across the bridge for shopping should be interpreted as an upper bound of impacts amongst those most affected. The during 2015. Respondents were initial findings from this survey were shared with the Carnegie UK Trust in February 2016. more likely to change their 10 Ibid shopping behaviour than they BREAKING THE LINK 7

Shopping during closure 68% December 2015

32% shopped more at a local store 22% visited an out of town store in Fife 19% used a different or longer route to shop at a location outwith Fife

were to undertake alternatives monitoring station in to commuting to their place of indicated a positive impact on air work outwith Fife during this time. quality during this period. Monthly Around a third of respondents average rates for nitric oxide11, (32%) shopped more at a local nitrogen dioxide12 and nitrogen store while the bridge was closed, oxides as nitrogen dioxides13 were while 22% visited an out of town all lower in December 2015 than store in Fife. A further 19% took a in any other month in 2015 and in different or longer route, such as January and February 2016. the Forth Rail Bridge, to do their shopping outwith Fife as they would normally have done. 11 Air Quality in Scotland Fife Rosyth (2015) http://www.scottishairquality.co.uk/latest/ site-info?site_id=ROSY&view=statistics Environment [accessed February 2016] With residents within Fife turning 12 Air Quality in Scotland Fife Rosyth (2015) more to the rail network to http://www.scottishairquality.co.uk/latest/ site-info?site_id=ROSY&view=statistics commute to work and some to [accessed February 2016] local alternative destinations for 13 Air Quality in Scotland Fife Rosyth (2015) shopping and leisure during the http://www.scottishairquality.co.uk/latest/ site-info?site_id=ROSY&view=statistics closure, data from the air quality [accessed February 2016] 8 BREAKING THE LINK

Business behaviour during the Forth Road Bridge Closure

63% of businesses said that they and their employees used the We suffered a massive Road Bridge ‘very frequently’ in impact on delivery times 2015 (indicating daily or at least and costs in our service 2-3 times weekly). Only 13% used the bridge ‘very infrequently’. For our respondent group, the Fewer than one in ten took a road bridge was a very significant strategic decision to focus on business asset. more localised sales or business development during the period, In terms of changes to business whilst around three in ten (29%) practice during the closure, around rescheduled some of their work or half (55%) used a longer or slower time commitments. route to get around the problem. When asked what the businesses’ Changes to business practice during closure workers had done differently, with employer support and approval, 22% reported that staff had been permitted to work from home, work flexibly, or shift around hours to accommodate the closure. For 72%, there had been no change to working practices or staff had been expected to use alternative routes to reach work or keep business 55% used a longer or slower route appointments. Participants said 29% rescheduled some of their work or time commitments that none of their staff had worked 22% allowed staff to work from home, work from a business centre, hot-desking flexibly, or change working hours hub, library or other similar facility 9% refocused work, sales or general business to the local area as a result of the closure. BREAKING THE LINK 9

60% of businesses reported profits We introduced decreasing teleworking, changed working hours patterns, and rescheduled meetings to cope

Business survey respondents businesses may have benefited presented a broadly negative from residents shopping more picture of the bottom line impact locally. Leisure industries may of the closure on business during also have gained from the closure the period. 43% thought that as residents sought more local visitor and business enquiry entertainment14. Businesses numbers had decreased, with only reliant on ‘exporting’ from Fife 7% feeling they had increased. (for example, taxi companies 60% thought that profits had normally transporting clients into decreased on a like for like period. Edinburgh) or those dependent on logistical connections may have Anecdotal evidence of the impact suffered added costs and delays on business performance is more that hit profitability15. mixed. Facility managers of the Kingdom Shopping Centre in Glenrothes and the Kingsgate I lost work, lost profits, Centre in Dunfermline both and had to reduce staff reported increased footfall during the period, suggesting retail

14 The Courier (2015) Forth Road Bridge closure gives Christmas bonus to Fife shops The Had it continued, Courier (online) http://www.thecourier.co.uk/ I would have had to close. news/local/fife/forth-road-bridge-closure- gives-christmas-bonus-to-fife-shops-1.915928 The continued closure [accessed February 2016] to HGVs impacts on our 15 The Courier (2015) Forth Road Bridge closure: daily business Cabbies in the Kingdom feel the pinch The Courier (online) http://www.thecourier. co.uk/news/local/fife/forth-road-bridge- closure-cabbies-in-the-kingdom-feel-the- pinch-1.915979 [accessed February 2016] 10 BREAKING THE LINK

Satisfaction, attitude and future change

Residents (69% compared with 49%). There Residents polled as part of was also an area distinction. this research rated their local Whilst 80% answered ‘very good’ communities very highly. Across to neighbourhood quality in Fife, 60% of respondents rated Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay, their neighbourhood as a ‘very only 39% did so in Kirkcaldy. good’ place to live and a further 36% rated it as ‘fairly good’ Those taking part in the survey (where neighbourhood was were also asked to consider if they defined as the area within 15 felt that their local area was too minutes’ walk of home). Only 3% reliant on the Forth Road Bridge. rated their area as ‘poor’ or ‘very 62% agreed with this statement, poor’. 31% disagreed. Proximity to the bridge was an influential factor There were some differences by in this response, with Cupar age and area. Older people were participants less likely to agree more likely than younger people (36%) than those in Inverkeithing to rate their area as ‘very good’ and Dalgety Bay (77%). There was also some variation by how frequently residents used the ‘My area relies too heavily on the Forth Road Bridge’ Forth Road Bridge. Respondents using the bridge every day were more likely to agree that Fife had become too dependent on the road crossing, compared with those who used the bridge less than once a month (87% compared with 47%).

The combination of very strong

Agree – 62% satisfaction with local place, and Disagree – 31% a sense that Fife has become BREAKING THE LINK 11

Residents viewing their neighbourhood as very good ‘My area relies too heavily on the Forth Road Bridge’

CUPAR 72% 36%

DUNFERMLINE 65% 68%

GLENROTHES 42% KIRKCALDY 66% 39% 66%

INVERKEITHING AND DALGETY BAY 80% 77% too dependent on its primary leaving Fife for work and business outbound road route, could merit might indicate residents would like further investigation. Residents to see more local economic and are more positive about their employment activity. communities than might be expected of ‘dormitories’. However, Business the reliance on commuting and Meanwhile, business survey participants reported little ongoing change to their operations in We had a loss of the wake of the bridge closure. profits, loss of business 79% said that any business and and a loss of reputation employee practices changed to accommodate for the closure would not be continued in the future. 12 BREAKING THE LINK

However, 9% said that staff might some evidence that business be allowed to work flexibly or representative organisations from home more often. Overall, are calling for more strategic business respondents felt the preparations for future closure had been disruptive of disruption16. Some of our planned business activity, and respondent businesses also that the aftermath of increased reported an increased interest in logistical costs meant a deeper local supply chains and business impact still than that felt by networks. residents.

Whilst inevitable that individual We're using more local businesses would be focused on suppliers; and we're trying the immediate implications of the to plan more in advance closure period, there is

16 The Courier (2015) Forth Road Bridge: Business group says ‘lessons must be learned’ The Courier (online) http://www.thecourier. co.uk/news/local/fife/forth-road-bridge- business-group-says-lessons-must-be- learned-1.916403 BREAKING THE LINK 13

Emerging debates

The emergency closure of the support strong, vibrant towns and Bridge and the ‘broken link’ sustainable local economies by between Fife and opportunities encouraging residents to spend across the Forth provides a a portion of their weekly shop prism through which to consider in independent businesses in emerging debates on the offer their area. This approach also of towns and district areas in encourages local businesses to Scotland and across the UK. use local suppliers and encourages residents’ support for the high Greater devolution or street. decentralisation could create a ‘double dividend’17 of economic Local authority areas in England and social success in the form like Leeds and Cornwall20 have of more jobs, decent wages, increased living standards and civic pride at the local level.

Organisations such as Scotland’s Towns Partnership18 are working to support towns as economic and social hubs, while award- winning campaigns such as Totally Locally19 are designed to

17 McInroy, I. and M. Jackson, The local double dividend: securing economic and social success Manchester: for Local Economic Strategies 2015 http://www. carnegieuktrust.org.uk/publications/2015/ the-local-double-dividend 18 Scotland’s Towns Partnership (2016) http:// 20 Shreeve, V. et al. Healthy, working economies: www.scotlandstowns.org/ [accessed February Improving the health and wellbeing of the 2016] working age population locally : The Work Foundation 2015 http://www. 19 Totally Locally (2016) http://totallylocally.org/ theworkfoundation.com/Reports/381/ [accessed February 2016] Healthy-Working-Economies 14 BREAKING THE LINK taken the lead in fostering environmental benefits from economic growth through reduced transport usage. creating more and better quality local jobs. One similar, The provision of good quality independent initiative in Scotland opportunities for leisure and social is the Fairer Fife Commission21, activity to capture and sustain which recommended that Fife this local spend is also key to the Council and the Fife Partnership regeneration and sustainability refocus their economic of towns. Evidence suggests that development strategy from a consumer spending on leisure is ‘Fife-outwards’ perspective to set to increase further over the one that focuses on the assets next ten years, with restaurants, within Fife. The Commission cafes and gyms continuing their suggested that this could be growth, and that the ‘leisure and achieved by a Fife ‘Towns Deal’ experience aspect’ of shopping which emulates the principles of trips is a significant driver of the City Region Deal, but would footfall and dwell time in town support towns to attract ‘good centres22. jobs’ to Fife, back private sector investment, and help to grow the There is a need for an regional economy through local independent research base, policy procurement. support and clear narrative on the importance of towns in the The Commission also UK to the wellbeing of citizens. recommended the development The Carnegie UK Trust is currently of Digital Business Hubs across commissioning an evidence base Fife to support employees of on international best practice in organisations based outwith the innovation, regeneration and Fife to work locally more often, sustainability of towns to allow with economic benefits to the public policy debates on towns to Fife economy, social benefits for be further advanced. families and communities, and

22 Wrigley, Professor N. and Dr Dionysia Lambiri, High Street Performance and Evolution: A 21 Fairer Fife Commission, Fairness Matters Fife: brief guide to the evidence Southampton: Fairer Fife Commission 2015 http://www. University of Southampton 2014 http:// carnegieuktrust.org.uk/publications/2015/ thegreatbritishhighstreet.co.uk/pdf/GBHS- fairness-matters HighStreetReport.pdf BREAKING THE LINK 15

BRIDGE CLOSED Use alternative route

During closure of Forth Road Bridge...

used a different 24% or longer route 72% to take part in a leisure activity

used a different or longer route to get to work

72%

of Fife-based businesses 32% did not change shopped more working practices at a local store

Welcome to YOUR NEIGHBOURHOOD

rated their 60% neighbourhood as very good 62% believed their local area relies too heavily on the Forth Road Bridge 16 BREAKING THE LINK

Conclusions

The closure of the Forth Road Bridge was a dramatic, if short- People were prepared lived, example of an infrastructure to alter their behaviour disruption around which as retail and leisure the community struggles to consumers reorganise itself. For residents and businesses alike, the significance of the bridge as the key link in the happy to use the retail, hospitality economic and transport system and entertainment industries was clear from this project’s much closer to home. There was research. little evidence that the disruption encouraged residents to seek Fife residents affected by the out local recreation activities like closure appear to have taken walks, museum visits or sports a pragmatic approach to their clubs in any greater numbers. individual responses. They were prepared to seek out more local Residents and businesses reported shopping and leisure options that, in terms of movement for that did not involve long journeys work, they were more inclined through the affected transport to try and travel around the network. The collected polling, problem (by using the under- qualitative and anecdotal stress train network, or driving evidence concurs that, when longer routes to work) than leaving Fife was made less employ innovative alternatives straightforward, residents were like home working, altered shift patterns or remote meeting techniques. Whilst this is perhaps Commuters travelled predictable – it was a short and around the bridge unexpected disruption – it should closure to get to work be set against a backdrop of a significant public information BREAKING THE LINK 17

most likely to be using the bridge Fife people love their neighbourhoods, but feel for economic purposes, and the over-reliant on crossing feeling of over-reliance, is also the Forth for work telling. Addressing more of Fife’s economic needs without the campaign encouraging workers use of outbound transport and employers to minimise travel infrastructure might have strong where practical. benefits for resident wellbeing and local productivity. It could also Lastly, the contrast between help to make Fife more resilient, residents’ very positive attitudes in the event of future significant to their neighbourhoods and their disruptions. Perhaps places where sense of collective over-reliance on people work – as well as rest the Road Bridge is an important and play – could be still more piece of learning. The relationship attractive and satisfying for their between those groups and areas residents. The Carnegie UK Trust works to improve the lives of people throughout the UK and Ireland, by changing minds through influencing policy, and by changing lives through innovative practice and partnership work. The Carnegie UK Trust was established by Scots-American philanthropist Andrew Carnegie in 1913. Andrew Carnegie House Pittencrieff Street Dunfermline KY12 8AW Tel: +44 (0)1383 721445 Fax: +44 (0)1383 749799 Email: [email protected] www.carnegieuktrust.org.uk Written by Jim Metcalfe and Lauren Pennycook March 2016

Carnegie United Kingdom Trust Scottish charity SC 012799 operating in the UK and Ireland Incorporated by Royal Charter 1917 ISBN number: 978-1-909447-39-4