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Economic Lessons, Perspectives and Challenges from the Balkans

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Economic Lessons, Perspectives and Challenges from the Balkans MONETARY AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTER 2ND ANNUAL CONFERENCE ECONOMIC LESSONS, PERSPECTIVES AND CHALLENGES FROM THE BALKANS 13-14 October 2016 Sofia The second annual scientific conference of the Monetary and Economic Research Center (MRC) was held from 13th to 14th of October 2016 at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE) in Sofia, Bulgaria. Founded in 2014, MRC diffuses knowledge in monetary theory, history, policy and institutions, associating empirical researches, developing new statistical measurements, estimating quantitative models of economic behavior, assessing the economic effects of monetary policies, and projecting the effects from the work of alternative monetary organisations. The MRC is а nonprofit economic research unit within the department of UNWE. Main accent on the 2nd Annual Conference conference was the learned lessons, perspectives and challenges from the Balkan Region. Researchers and professionals from more than 13 countries took part. The present book consists papers in English, Bulgarian and Russian languages. FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR PAPER CONTENT IS BEARED BY THE AUTHORS! 2 SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE Statty Stattev, Rector of UNWE Nikolay Nenovsky, Director of MRC Pencho Penchev, Member of MRC Petar Chobanov, Member of the MRC Presiana Nenkova, Head of Finance Department, Member of MRC Rositsa Toncheva, Member of MRC, UNWE Diyana Miteva, Member of MRC, UNWE Gergana Mihaylova, Member of MRC UNWE Silvia Triffonova, Member of MRC, UNWE Jerome Blanc, University of Lyon II Jaime Marques Pereira, University of Picardie Dominique Torre, University of Nice Sophia Antipolis Michalis Psalidopoulos, University of Athens Julius Horvath, Central European University, Budapest Vladimir Avtonomov, Higer School of Economics, Moscow Camelia Turcu, University of Orleans Gildas Bondi, Université Marien NGOUABI, Brazzaville-Congo Kiril Tochkov, Texas Christian University EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Nikolay Nenovsky, Director of MRC Diyana Miteva, Member of MRC, UNWE Xavier Richet, University of Paris 3, France Giovanni Pavanelli, University of Turin, Italy Jaime Marques Pereira, University of Picardie, France Bruno Théret, University of Paris Dauphine, France Jean Paul Pollin, University of Orleans, France Yannick Lucotte, Paris School of Business, France Mihai Mutascu, West University of Timisoara, Romania Elena Ponomorenko, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russia FORMATING AND PUBLISHING EDITOR Elena Kirilova ISBN: 978-619-90797-1-3 Sofia, 2016 Publisher: Monetary and Economic Research Center Postal Address: Studentski grad "Hr. Botev", 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria, Office 2020 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://mrcenter.info/ © 2016 All rights are reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the publisher/or authors. 3 Contents 1. THE NEW APPROACH IN THE INTEGRATION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES by ZAFIROSKI JOVAN…………………………………………………………………….…6 2. DEVELOPMENT AND STATUS OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL BANKS IN SWITZERLAND by MARTIGNONI JENS……………………………………………………………………..17 3. RESHUFFLING THE MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM: LESSONS FROM THE SOCIAL AND SOLIDARITY ECONOMY by HIROTA YASUYUKI……………………………………………………………….……31 4. POPULAR BANKS IN BULGARIA IN THE INTERWAR PERIOD (1918-1939): LEADING SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT by NENOVSKY NIKOLAY AND MARINOVA TSVETELINA………………………..…52 5. THE ROAD TO EUROZONE. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE MAASTRICHT CRITERIA FULFILLMENT BY THE CEE COUNTRIES by DIMITROVA IVAYLA……………………………………………...………….………..77 6. THE LOSS OF INTEREST FOR THE EURO IN ROMANIA by ALBULESCU CLAUDIU……………………………………………………….……..…88 7. MONETARY POLICY AND MONETARY REGIMES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE (in Bulgarian) by MIHAYLOVA BORISOVA GERGANA…………………………………………..….…97 8. FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY OF FINANCIAL SAFETY NET AND PARTICULARLY OF THE DEPOSIT INSURANCE SYSTEMS AND INVESTORS COMPENSATION FUNDS (in Bulgarian) by MITEVA DIYANA……………………………………………………………………...109 9. ЕCONOMIC CONVERGENCE INDICATORS OF BULGARIA (2007-2016) (in Bulgarian) by HRISTOZOV YANKO………………………………………………….……...……….124 10. CASH FLOWS AND NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (NEED NEW SATELLITE ACCOUNT) by HRISTOV METODI……………………………………………………………...……..139 11. SOCIALIST INDUSTRIALIZATION AND INFANT INDUSTRY ARGUMENT by BOGATZKY NIKOLAY……………………...…………………...........................……160 12. ESTIMATION OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES FOR MOROCCAN FINANCIAL MARKET USING VASICEK MODEL by SAIKAK MOULAYDRISS………………………...…………………......................….184 4 13. FINANCIAL FACTORS FOR FISCAL STABILITY OF MUNICIPALITIES IN BULGARIA (in Bulgarian) by PETROV STEFAN………………………………………………………………...…….196 14. IS THE CONTAGION EFFECT PRESENT ON THE CEE CAPITAL MARKETS? by CIOACA SORIN……………...……………………………………….......................….215 15. НАСТОЯЩИЙ ПЕРИОД ДВИЖЕНИЯ НА ЗАПАД ЦЕНТРА МИРОВОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ И ТРАГИЧЕСКАЯ СУДЬБА РОССИИ – БЫТЬ В ТРЕТИЙ РАЗ АРБИТРОМ В БИТКЕ МЕЖДУ СТАРЫМ ЦЕНТРОМ И НОВЫМ ПРЕТЕНДЕНТОМ (in Russian) by NAYDENOV GEORGI……………………………………………………………...….228 16. HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AT BULGARIAN SEA PORTS – PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT by KORALOVA PETYA……………………………………………………………...……240 17. SOCIAL COSTS OF THE INEFFICIENT MANAGEMENT OF THE EU FUNDS FOR BULGARIA by NOZHAROV SHTERYO……………………………………………………...………..254 18. ПОДХОД ЗА АНАЛИЗ И ОЦЕНКА НА СИВАТА ИКОНОМИКА В ХРАНИТЕЛНАТА ПРОМИШЛЕНОСТ (in Bulgarian) by IVANOV IVAN…………………………………………………………………...….…272 19. АНАЛИЗ И ОЦЕНКА ЕФЕКТИВНОСТТА НА ОБРАЩАЕМОСТ НА КРАТКОТРАЙНИТЕ АКТИВИ НА ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ ОТ ХРАНИТЕЛНИЯ СЕКТОР (in Bulgarian) by IVANOV IVAN……………………………………………………………………....…293 20. ON BARTER MONEY – PHILOSOPHICALLY (in Bulgarian) by TONCHEVA ROSITSA…………………………………………....………...….......…..319 21. THE BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS AND THE DARK HISTORY OF FINANCE DURING WORLD WAR II by STOYANOV PETER………………………………………………………………..…329 22. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS and CONFERENCE PROGRAMME................................341 5 The New Approach in the Integration of the Financial Markets. The Case of the Balkan Countries1 Jovan ZAFIROSKI, Phd Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopie Abstract: The lack of tradition and financial culture for using of the financial markets as a medium for financing of business which is coming as a heritage from the past where the financial markets were non-existent is the main reason why the financial markets in the Balkan countries even in the post transition period are still undeveloped facing massive liquidity problems. Also, the difficulties are caused from the fact that each financial market in all the countries in the region is small not only in comparison with the world’s main financial centres but also with average financial markets in the EU capitals. Taking into consideration the common problems and similar market preferences the best possible solution for the fragmented markets in the region would be an integration on the markets which will provide more opportunities for investors and in some way will help in solving the liquidity problem. In this respect, the three stock exchanges in the region, Bulgarian, Macedonian and Croatian stock exchange have decided to take a step in connecting of the financial markets in the countries by establishment of a company SEE Link with one main goal to increase turnover of the participating exchanges and potentially increase of their economic value. The aim of the SEE Link is to create regional infrastructure for trading of securities listed on the Macedonian, Bulgarian and Croatian market. Thus, the integration of the financial markets in the region will be achieved with lowest possible costs i.e. without merger or corporate integration but with using technology. This integration approach provides that the stock exchanges remain independent while providing investors with market access in all of the participating Stock exchanges. Four stock exchanges, Belgrade, Ljubljana, Banja Luka and Athens stock exchanges have also applied for membership in the SEE Link. This paper is going to present the current model of connecting the financial markets in the Balkan countries and will offer an analyses of the future prospects of the integration process. 1 The paper is based on the author’s presentation at the 2nd Annual Monetary and Economic Scientific Conference: Economic Lessons, Perspectives and Challenges from the Balkans, organised by Monetary Research Center, Sofia 13-14 October 2016. The last update on the data used in this paper is the conference day. 6 Introduction The financial market is in the core of the economic system. Due to different integration processes, regional and global, it is impossible to isolate the national financial markets from the global trends. Everything is interdependent while each move on one market has effects on the others. Usually, the financial markets have good information and what happens there shows what will follow in the real economy2. Well-developed financial market is conditio sine que non for well-functioning and good performance of the economy. However, it is still unclear whether advanced real sector creates sound financial system or is vice versa. The lack of tradition and absence of financial culture for using of the financial markets as a medium for financing of business, coming as a heritage from the past where the financial markets were either non-existent or undeveloped, is the
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