Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2018) Emerging Strategy for Growth 02/21
Regulation 18 Consultation Representations on behalf of Apsley Developments Ltd
jb planning associates Chells Manor, Chells Lane, Stevenage, Herts, SG2 7AA e-mail [email protected] url www.jbplanning.com tel 01438 312130 fax 01438 312131
Dacorum Local Plan Emerging Strategy for Growth (Regulation 18) 0 Representations on behalf of Apsley Developments Ltd
Contents
Introduction
Background and Context
Question 5A: Are there any other sites that you think should be included in the Plan?
Appendices
Appendix 1: WSP Technical Note – Transport / Access Appraisal
jb planning associates representations 02/21
Dacorum Local Plan Emerging Strategy for Growth (Regulation 18) 1 Representations on behalf of Apsley Developments Ltd
Introduction
1. JB Planning Associates have been instructed by our client Apsley Developments Ltd (ADL) to submit representations which support the allocation of land at Shendish Manor, which is being promoted by the site owners (W Lamb Ltd) as an urban extension to Hemel Hempstead of approximately 500 units. This site does not feature as one of the proposed allocations in the document and we understand from the information available on the site selection process that this was due largely to concerns regarding how safe site access can be provided as well as the potential impact that development of this site may have on the local and strategic road network. This led Dacorum Borough Council to conclude in the Site Selection Topic Paper (November 2020) that, on balance, there are more suitable sites in the area which can better deliver the strategy of the Local Plan.
2. We have considered the content of the Regulation 18 Emerging Strategy for Growth and the supporting evidence and wish to submit representations to the consultation which respond to question 5A by explaining how ADL can facilitate the delivery of this site by providing an additional access point which will address the concerns identified through the site selection process.
Background and Context
3. In 2010 ADL secured planning permission for 325 dwellings (ref: 4/02419/04/FUL) on its land immediately to the north of land at Shendish Manor. It subsequently sold the land to Bovis, now part of Vistry Group PLC, who have built out the development. Under the terms of the sale and transfer, ADL retained land between the Vistry development and the land at Shendish Manor, along with the rights to cross the area of public open space between this land and the new spine road on the Vistry development (Shearwater Road).
Question 5A: Are there any other sites that you think should be included in the Plan?
4. Our Client, Apsley Developments Ltd (ADL), considers that land at Shendish Manor should be included in the Local Plan as an allocation.
5. The site is in the Green Belt and comprises part golf course that is in active use, and part open land historically associated with Shendish Manor. It is bounded to the north by the Vistry development, the east by a railway line, the south by residential development on Rucklers Lane (located in the parish of Kings Langley), and to the west by the grounds of Shendish Manor, including the remaining part of the golf course. Beyond the railway line to the east is Apsley’s neighbourhood centre, whilst the town centre of Hemel Hempstead is approximate 1.5km to the north.
6. This site has been the subject of detailed testing by the Council (site reference 82) as an urban extension to Hemel Hempstead with the potential to deliver approximately 500 dwellings, a new local centre and primary school. This detailed testing, which is presented in Appendix B of the Site Selection Topic Paper (November 2020), reveals that Officers considered that the site performs well on a number of identified criteria, with the majority of identified constraints likely to be sufficiently mitigated alongside
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development, and the site’s close proximity to Apsley Railway Station seen as a significant positive.
7. However, Officers were concerned about how safe site access can be provided over the railway line to the east or onto the Rucklers Lane adjoining the southern boundary. They add that whilst a technical solution may be achievable for this, the impact that development of this site may have on the local and strategic road network could be significant. The delivery of new on-site infrastructure such as a school could exacerbate these concerns. They conclude that, on balance, there a more suitable sites in the area which can better deliver the strategy of the Local Plan.
8. Noting the decision not to move forward with the site as an allocation was made because of access issues, our Client has instructed WSP to undertake a review of whether the provision of an additional access on its retained land to the north via Shearwater Road/Featherbed Lane would address the concerns raised over the impact of the development on the local and strategic road network. A Technical Note setting out the findings of this review is included at Appendix 1 to these representations and is summarised in the following paragraphs.
9. At Figure 1.1 of the Technical Note, WSP identify the extent of ADL’s retained land between the Vistry development and the land at Shendish Manor, and at Figure 1.2 an illustrative access junction to serve the proposed site allocation from Shearwater Road is shown.
10. The Technical Note explains that the review established the predicted multi-modal trip generation of the Land at Shendish Manor site (for the provision of up to 500 dwellings) and, to assess the impact of the completed development, distributes and assigns vehicular trips onto the surrounding highway network via three potential access points. These are illustrated at Figure 2.1 and include the two identified by the site promotors and assessed by the Council as part of its site selection process (i.e. Rucklers Lane and the A4251 / Shendish Manor access) and a third access from the north, facilitated by ADL’s retained land. Notably, the latter was not considered when the site was assessed by the Council.
11. The Trip Rate Information Computer System (TRICS) database has been used to assess the potential number of trips that may be generated by the Land at the Shendish Manor Site, based upon surveys of similar sites. The multi-modal trip generation estimates that, of the total number of trips generated daily from the site (4,095), 2,874 (70%) will be made by private vehicle (car). Trips made by sustainable modes (walking, cycling, train or bus) will amount to 1,020 trips, of which 543 (53%) will be made by train. This high proportion of trips by train can be attributed to the site being adjacent to Apsley Railway Station, a calling point on the West Coast Main Line, which provides direct connectivity to London and the West Midlands.
12. Vehicular trips have been distributed using journey to work origin-destination data (2011 Census) and assigned onto the local highway network for the time periods assessed (AM peak and PM peak) using Google Maps route planner. Three access option scenarios have been undertaken:
• “Option 1” (two access points – Rucklers Lane and A4251 / Shendish Manor): it has been assumed for the purposes of this appraisal that 60% of trips would utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 40% utilising a Rucklers Lane access;
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• “Option 2” (three access points – Rucklers Lane, A4251 / Shendish Manor and northern access/Featherbed Lane): it has been assumed that 40% of trips would still utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 60% of trips utilising a Rucklers Lane access and Featherbed Lane access equally; and
• “Option 3” (two access points – A4251 / Shendish Manor and northern access/Featherbed Lane): it has been assumed that 60% of trips would utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 40% utilising a Featherbed Lane access
13. The trips anticipated to be generated by the proposed site allocation have been added onto the 2038 future year (calculated by applying growth factors to validated 2021 base flows) traffic flows to generate “2038 Baseline + Development” scenarios for the three access options.
14. The junction capacity assessments demonstrate that there is sufficient capacity at all junctions in the 2038 future year, except for the A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane signalised junction which is predicted to operate over capacity in the 2038 base scenario in both peaks. As this is a key junction for southbound traffic, it is inevitable under all three options that a significant proportion of traffic will travel through the junction; therefore, the junction still operates over capacity and slightly worsens compared with the baseline. However, Option 3 removes the assumed site access(es) onto Rucklers Lane, resulting in a significant drop in traffic flows on this arm, reducing the capacity to circa pre-development levels.
15. Notably, Featherbed Lane and its approaches have enough link flow capacity to support additional development, that would be related with the provision of a northern access to the proposed site allocation.
16. WSP conclude that the inclusion of a northern access and exclusion of the Rucklers Lane access largely remedies the increased congestion issues at the A4521 / Nash Mills / Rucklers Lane signalised junction caused by the proposed site allocation. It therefore follows that a northern access point to the site, via the ADL retained land, would facilitate the delivery of the Land at Shendish Manor site.
17. On the basis of this evidence, we consider that the concerns raised by the Council in the Site Selection Topic Paper over the potential impact of the Land at Shendish Manor development on the highway network can be addressed through the provision of the northern access point identified in these representations.
18. As such, there are no significant highway grounds not to progress the Land at Shendish Manor site, and we respectfully request that the Council reconsider its decision not to include it as an allocation in the emerging Local Plan. As the Council correctly note in the site assessment, it is in a highly sustainable location close to Aspley Railway Station and we agree that this should be seen as a significant positive. As WSP note in their assessment, there is an expectation that a high proportion of trips associated with the development could be made by train given the proximity of the site to Apsley Railway Station, a calling point on the West Coast Main Line, which provides direct connectivity to London and the West Midlands.
19. Having regard to the site’s location, we consider it also relevant to note that it adjoins (beyond the railway line) the Two Waters Opportunity Area, which is identified in the emerging Local Plan as a focus for growth and regeneration in Hemel Hempstead.
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As para 23.84 of the draft Local Plan explains “The area represents the most sustainable location within the town given its proximity to public transport, retail and other facilities all of which are within easy walking distance. The area is located close to both rail and bus services delivering excellent connectivity allowing for easy movement without reliance on the private car.”
20. Land at Shendish Manor therefore represents an ideal opportunity to deliver more growth in the most sustainable location in the Borough’s principal and only strategic sized settlement. In this respect, we are of the view that the allocation of the site would accord with paragraph 138 of the NPPF which states that “when drawing up or reviewing Green Belt boundaries, the need to promote sustainable patterns of development should be taken into account... Where it has been concluded that it is necessary to release Green Belt land for development, plans should give first consideration to land which has been previously-developed and/or is well-served by public transport.”
21. To ignore the sustainability credentials of the site risks the Local Plan being found unsound during the Examination process as it would not be consistent with national policy. Furthermore, for the Council to do so on the basis of a concern over highway impact would also be unjustified on the basis of the technical evidence submitted with this representation.
Summary and Conclusion
22. In this representation, we have explained why the Council should reconsider its decision not to include land at Shendish Manor (site reference 82) as an allocation in the emerging Local Plan. We understand, whilst it is considered by the Council to be in a highly sustainable location, the decision not to include it was due largely to concerns regarding how safe site access can be provided as well as the potential impact that development of this site may have on the local and strategic road network.
23. We have demonstrated in these representations how our Client, ADL, can address this concern by providing an additional access point on the northern boundary of the proposed site allocation. The accompanying Technical Note prepared by WSP demonstrates how the inclusion of this additional access will remedy congestion issues that would have been exacerbated by the development of the site if it relied on an access from Rucklers Lane to the south.
24. On the basis of this evidence, we consider that there are no significant highway grounds to discount the Land at Shendish Manor site. To ensure that sustainable patterns of development are promoted when releasing land from the Green Belt, we respectfully request that the Council reconsider its decision not to include it as an allocation in the emerging Local Plan.
JD/1637 26 February 2021
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Appendix 1
jb planning associates representations 02/21
Apsley Developments Limited LAND AT WEST APSLEY Technical Note – Transport / Access Appraisal
70080547-WSP-TN-001 FEBRUARY 2021 PUBLIC
Apsley Developments Limited
LAND AT WEST APSLEY Technical Note – Transport / Access Appraisal
TECHNICAL NOTE (VERSION P03) PUBLIC
PROJECT NO. 70080547 OUR REF. NO. 70080547-WSP-TN-001
DATE: FEBRUARY 2021
WSP 62-64 Hills Road Cambridge CB2 1LA Phone: +44 1223 558 050 Fax: +44 1223 558 051 WSP.com
PUBLIC
QUALITY CONTROL
Issue/revision First issue Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3
Remarks P01 P02 P03
Date 12 February 2021 22 February 2021 23 February 2021
UKDAK001 UKDAK001 Prepared by UKDAK001 UKACP002 UKACP002
Signature
Checked by UKGSM002 UKGSM002 UKACP002
Signature
Authorised by UKNMD003 UKNMD003 UKGSM002
Signature
Project number 70063980 70063980 70063980
Report number TN-001-P01 TN-001-P02 TN-001-P03
file://\\uk.wspgroup.com\central data\Projects\70080xxx\70080547 - Land at West File reference Apsley- Planning Support\03 WIP\TP Transport Planning\2 Document\TN001
LAND AT WEST APSLEY PUBLIC | WSP Project No.: 70080547 | Our Ref No.: 70080547-WSP-TN-001 February 2021 Apsley Developments Limited
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 BACKGROUND 1 1.2 REPORT PURPOSE & STRUCTURE 3
TRIP GENERATION, DISTRIBUTION & ASSIGNMENT 4
2.1 OVERVIEW 4 2.2 TRIP GENERATION 4 2.3 TRIP DISTRIBUTION 6 2.4 TRIP ASSIGNMENT 7
HIGHWAY NETWORK 10
3.1 OVERVIEW 10 3.2 NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS 10 3.3 TRAFFIC FLOWS 13 3.4 JUNCTION CAPACITY 17 3.5 LINK CAPACITY 21
SUMMARY & CONCLUSION 24
4.1 SUMMARY 24 4.2 CONCLUSION 24
LAND AT WEST APSLEY PUBLIC | WSP Project No.: 70080547 | Our Ref No.: 70080547-WSP-TN-001 February 2021 Apsley Developments Limited
TABLES
Table 2-1 Person Trip Rates & Associated Trip Generation 5 Table 2-2 Multi Modal Trip Generation 6 Table 2-3 Route Assignment by Option & Access Point 7 Table 3-1 Network Characteristics 11 Table 3-2 TEMPro Growth Factors to Uplift Traffic Flows 14 Table 3-3 Network Two-Way PCUs – 2021 Base & 2038 Base 15 Table 3-4 Network Two-Way PCUs – 2038 Base + Development Options 16 Table 3-5 Modelling Software 17 Table 3-6 A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane: LinSig Summary (DoS) 18 Table 3-7 A4251 / Shendish Manor: PICADY Summary (RFC) 19 Table 3-8 A4251 / Orchard Street: LinSig Summary (DoS) 19 Table 3-9 A4251 / Featherbed Lane: PICADY Summary (RFC) 20 Table 3-10 Featherbed Lane / Henry Street: PICADY Summary (RFC) 20 Table 3-11 Capacities of Urban Road (One-Way Hourly Flows) 21 Table 3-12 Additional Dwellings Accommodatable by Featherbed Lane 22
FIGURES
Figure 1-1 Site Context 2 Figure 1-2 Illustrative Junction Layout 2 Figure 2-1 Potential Access Points 4 Figure 2-1 Existing Travel Patterns by Local Residents (Dacorum 022) 5 Figure 2-2 Key Destinations (Local Authority) for Residents of Dacorum 022 6 Figure 2-3 Trip Assignment by Option 8 Figure 3-1 Links & Junctions Assessed 10 Figure 3-2 Traffic Survey Methodology 13 Figure 3-3 Anticipated Link Flows (Vehicles): 2038 Baseline 22
LAND AT WEST APSLEY PUBLIC | WSP Project No.: 70080547 | Our Ref No.: 70080547-WSP-TN-001 February 2021 Apsley Developments Limited
APPENDICES
TRICS Output Network Flow Diagrams Traffic Survey Data Traffic Flow Validation Junction Modelling Outputs Traffic Signal Specification
LAND AT WEST APSLEY PUBLIC | WSP Project No.: 70080547 | Our Ref No.: 70080547-WSP-TN-001 February 2021 Apsley Developments Limited
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Dacorum Borough Council (DBC) are currently consulting on the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth which, once adopted, will set out where new homes will be built and what employment land, new community facilities and infrastructure will be needed across the borough, to a future year of 2038. W Lamb Ltd are seeking to promote a mixed use, residential-led development of approximately 500 dwellings – Land at Shendish Manor – through the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth. 1.1.1. The Land at Shendish Manor site, as yet, has not been identified as an allocation within the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth by DBC due largely to concern over the potential impact of the development on the local road network (particularly the A4251 and A41) at peak periods, and the likely requirement for significant enhancements to the Shendish Manor access as well as a secondary point of access. Apsley Developments Limited (ADL) are in ownership of a parcel of land located between the Land at Shendish Manor site and the Vistry Group (Bovis Homes) development to the north, which could assist to facilitate an additional point of access from the Land at Shendish Manor site onto the local highway network (Featherbed Lane). 1.1.2. This Technical Note (TN) has therefore been prepared to assess the potential impact of developing the Land at Shendish Manor site (for residential use) on the local highway network, ensuring that the delivery of the site will not cause any significant impacts on the transport network (in terms of capacity and congestion). This TN subsequently seeks to demonstrate that the Land at Shendish Manor site constitutes a suitable location for allocation within the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth and should be reconsidered by DBC.
Trip Generation, Distribution & Assignment The Trip Rate Information Computer System (TRICS) database has been used to assess the potential number of trips that may be generated by the Land at the Shendish Manor Site, based upon surveys of similar sites. The analysis indicates that the site is anticipated to generate a total of 4,095 new two- way multi-modal trips across the daily period (07:00-19:00) with 488 (12%) being undertaken in the AM peak hour (08:00-09:00) and 425 (10%) occurring in the PM peak hour (17:00-18:00). Approximately 70% of all trips are anticipated to be undertaken by car with a further 25% undertaken by active and sustainable modes (2011 Census). Vehicular trips have been distributed using journey to work origin-destination data (2011 Census) for the resident population of Dacorum 022 Middle-Layer Super Output Area (MSOA). As can be expected the majority of workplace destinations for residents of Apsley and Kings Langley are within the local authority of Dacorum (40%, 399 trips) and the neighbouring authorities of Watford (19%, 192 trips) and Three Rivers (14%, 142 trips). Vehicle trips generated by the Land at the Shendish Manor site have then been assigned onto the local highway network for the time periods assessed (AM peak and PM peak) using Google Maps route planner. Where there were multiple route options with similar journey times, vehicle trips have been split equally across all routes (up to a maximum of three). Three access option scenarios have been undertaken:
LAND AT WEST APSLEY PUBLIC | WSP Project No.: 70080547 | Our Ref No.: 70080547-WSP-TN-001 February 2021 Apsley Developments Limited
“Option 1” (two access points – Rucklers Lane and A4251 / Shendish Manor): based upon the Land at Shendish Manor site boundary, it has been assumed for the purposes of this appraisal that 60% of trips would utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 40% utilising a Rucklers Lane access; “Option 2” (three access points – Rucklers Lane, A4251 / Shendish Manor and northern access/Featherbed Lane): based upon the Land at Shendish Manor site boundary, it has been assumed that 40% of trips would still utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 60% of trips utilising a Rucklers Lane access and Featherbed Lane access equally; and “Option 3” (two access points – A4251 / Shendish Manor and northern access/Featherbed Lane): based upon the Land at Shendish Manor site boundary, it has been assumed that 60% of trips would utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 40% utilising a Featherbed Lane access. Highway Network The trips anticipated to be generated by the Land at Shendish Manor site have been added onto the 2038 future year (calculated by applying growth factors to validated 2021 base flows) traffic flows to generate “2038 Baseline + Development” scenarios for the three access options. The turning flow matrices have then been used within junction capacity assessments undertaken on a number of junctions (selected on the basis that these junctions could experience notable changes in traffic flows as a result of development-related traffic) surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor site. The junction capacity assessments demonstrate that all the junctions operate with reserve capacity in the 2038 future year scenario for all access options, except for the A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane signalised junction. The A4521 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane signalised junction is predicted to operate over capacity in the 2038 base scenario in both peaks, with the DoS being between 100- 120% across all arms, except for the Rucklers Lane arm during the PM peak. As the A4251 / Nash Mills / Rucklers Lane signalised junction is a key junction for southbound traffic, it is inevitable under all three options that a significant proportion of traffic will travel through the junction; therefore, the junction still operates over capacity and slightly worsens compared with the baseline. However, Option 3 removes the assumed site access(es) onto Rucklers Lane, resulting in a significant drop in traffic flows on this arm, reducing the capacity to circa pre-development levels. In addition, Option 3 also reduces DoS on all other arms below that of Option 1, i.e. no access to the north. Featherbed Lane and its approaches have enough link flow capacity to support additional development, that would be related with the provision of a northern access to the Land at Shendish Manor. Summary This TN therefore concludes that a northern access point to the site, via the ADL land parcel and the Vistry (Bovis Homes) development would facilitate the delivery of the Land at Shendish Manor site. The introduction of a northern access point to the site suitably addresses the concerns raised by DBC regarding the potential allocation of the site in the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth and the Land at Shendish Manor site is subsequently deemed a suitable location for allocation.
LAND AT WEST APSLEY PUBLIC | WSP Project No.: 70080547 | Our Ref No.: 70080547-WSP-TN-001 February 2021 Apsley Developments Limited
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND NEW DACORUM LOCAL PLAN (TO 2038) 1.1.1. The Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth1 is to set out where new homes will be built and what employment land, new community facilities and infrastructure will be needed across the borough, to a future year of 2038. Once adopted, the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth will replace the Site Allocations Development Plan Document2, Core Strategy3 and “saved policies” from the Dacorum Borough Local Plan 1991-20114. 1.1.2. Dacorum Borough Council (DBC) are currently consulting on the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth which sets out DBC’s preferred approach to accommodating growth across the borough, the sites DBC are proposing and the draft policies that will deliver and control other development. The consultation is running until Sunday 28 February 2021. LAND AT SHENDISH MANOR 1.1.3. W Lamb Ltd are seeking to promote their site (hereafter known as “Land at Shendish Manor”), outlined in blue in Figure 1-1, and gain an allocation through the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth for a mixed use, residential-led development of approximately 500 dwellings. The Land at Shendish Manor site is located approximately 500m south-west of the Apsley Mills Retail Park and 2.5km south of Hemel Hempstead. It is bounded by the West Coast Mainline (WCML) to the east, Rucklers Lane to the south, Shendish Manor Hotel and golf course to the west and Shearwater Road / Linnet Road to the north. 1.1.4. The Land at Shendish Manor site, as yet, has not been identified as an allocation within the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth by DBC due largely to concern over the potential impact of the development on the local road network (particularly the A4251 and A41) at peak periods, and the likely requirement for significant enhancements to the Shendish Manor access as well as a secondary point of access5. Based upon the site boundary and knowledge of the current intentions for site access, the vehicular access strategy of the Land at Shendish Manor site is assumed to be: utilisation of the existing Shendish Manor access (A4251 London Road / Shendish Manor priority junction – noting that significant enhancements would likely be required); and one / two additional accesses (likely simple priority junctions) directly onto Rucklers Lane.
1 https://www.dacorum.gov.uk/home/planning-development/planning-strategic-planning/new-single-local-plan 2 https://www.dacorum.gov.uk/home/planning-development/planning-strategic-planning/local-planning-framework/site-allocations 3 https://www.dacorum.gov.uk/home/planning-development/planning-strategic-planning/local-planning-framework/core-strategy 4 https://www.dacorum.gov.uk/home/planning-development/planning-strategic-planning/local-plan-1991-2011 5 https://www.dacorum.gov.uk/docs/default-source/strategic-planning/topic-paper---site-selection---appendix-b.pdf?sfvrsn=79da0c9e_4
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APSLEY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED LAND 1.1.5. Apsley Developments Limited (ADL) are in ownership of a parcel of land located between the Land at Shendish Manor site and the Vistry Group (Bovis Homes) development to the north, shown in black and green respectively in Figure 1-1.
Figure 1-1 Site Context
1.1.6. This parcel of land has the potential to provide an additional point of access from the Land at Shendish Manor site onto the local highway network (Featherbed Lane) through the Vistry Group (Bovis Homes) development, thereby dissipating the potential traffic impacts of the site and providing a solution to the access and highway impact concerns initially raised by DBC. An illustrative junction layout, providing access from the ADL land to Shearwater Road, can be seen in Figure 1-2. At this stage, this is indicative and has not been assessed for capacity.
Figure 1-2 Illustrative Junction Layout
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1.2 REPORT PURPOSE & STRUCTURE PURPOSE 1.2.1. The site has initially been considered unsuitable for allocation within the Dacorum Local Plan (2020- 2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth by DBC, due to concern over the potential impact of the Land at Shendish Manor site on the surrounding highway network and that “on balance, there are more suitable sites in the area which can better deliver the strategy of the Local Plan”5. 1.2.2. This Technical Note (TN) has therefore been prepared to assess the potential impact of developing the Land at Shendish Manor site (for residential use) on the local highway network, ensuring that the delivery of the site will not cause any significant impacts on the transport network (in terms of capacity and congestion). This TN subsequently seeks to demonstrate that the Land at Shendish Manor site constitutes a suitable location for allocation within the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth and should be reconsidered by DBC. STRUCTURE 1.2.3. This TN subsequently covers: Trip Generation, Distribution & Assignment: • establishes the predicted multi-modal trip generation of the Land at Shendish Manor site (for the provision of up to 500 dwellings). It then sets out the methodology used to distribute and assign vehicular trips onto the surrounding highway network via a series of potential access points; Highway Network: • describes the characteristics of the highway network surrounding the site and identifies potential constraints to development, in terms of access. It then assesses the existing (2021) and forecast future (2038 – end of the New Dacorum Local Plan: Emerging Strategy for Growth) capacity of key junctions. It also assesses the capacity of key links that would facilitate a northern access (particularly King Edward Street, Shearwater Road and Featherbed Lane); and Summary & Conclusion: • summarises the findings of this TN.
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TRIP GENERATION, DISTRIBUTION & ASSIGNMENT
2.1 OVERVIEW 2.1.1. This section establishes the predicted multi-modal trip generation of the Land at Shendish Manor site (for the provision of up to 500 dwellings). It then sets out the methodology used to distribute and assign vehicular trips onto the surrounding highway network via a series of potential access points, as illustrated in Figure 2-1.
Figure 2-1 Potential Access Points
2.2 TRIP GENERATION TOTAL PEOPLE TRIPS 2.2.1. The total person trip generation for the Land at Shendish Manor site – up to 500 residential dwellings (use class C3) – has been calculated using the Trip Rate Information Computer System6 (TRICS) database v.7.7.4. The “Residential – Houses Privately Owned” category was selected (this provides the most robust trip rates) and multi-modal trip rates were obtained for sites reflecting the locational characteristics of the Land at Shendish Manor site.
6 http://www.trics.org/Login.aspx
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2.2.2. The residential person trip rates, per dwelling, for the typical weekday AM peak hour (08:00-09:00), PM peak hour (17:00-18:00) and daily period (07:00-19:00) are outlined in Table 2-1. The person trip rates have then been applied to the 500 proposed dwellings. The TRICS output, detailing the selection criteria and trip rates, is attached at Appendix A.
Table 2-1 Person Trip Rates & Associated Trip Generation
AM Peak Hour (08:00-09:00) PM Peak Hour (17:00-18:00) Daily Period (07:00-19:00) Trip Rate & Trips Arrive Depart Total Arrive Depart Total Arrive Depart Total
Trip Rate (per dwelling) 0.183 0.793 0.976 0.565 0.285 0.850 3.994 4.196 8.190
Person Trips (500 dwellings) 92 397 488 283 143 425 1,997 2,098 4,095
Source: Trip Rate Information Computer System v.7.7.4
2.2.3. The data demonstrates that a daily person trip rate of circa eight trips per dwelling has been adopted, which equates to a total of 4,095 new two-way person trips throughout the day (07:00-19:00). Of these, 488 (12%) new two-way person trips are forecast to be undertaken in the AM peak hour and 425 (10%) new two-way person trips are anticipated to occur in the PM peak hour. MULTI-MODAL TRIPS 2.2.4. Journey to work data from the 2011 Census7 for the local area has been analysed to identify the existing travel to work characteristics of local residents. The Middle-Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) that contains the Land at Shendish Manor site – Dacorum 022 – has been selected to obtain existing travel to work data. The data provides a good proxy for future resident travel patterns to, and from, the site. The analysis, provided in Figure 2-2, excludes people working from home, people who are unemployed or those who selected “Other” methods of travel.
Figure 2-2 Existing Travel Patterns by Local Residents (Dacorum 022)
Driving a car or van
Train 13.3% On foot 8.5% 3.9% 1.3% 1.8% Passenger in a car or van Bus, minibus or coach 0.7% 70.2% Bicycle 0.3% 2.3% Motorcycle, scooter or moped Taxi
Source: Table QS701EW – Method of travel to work (Census, 2011)
2.2.5. To predict the trip generation by mode for the Land at Shendish Manor site, the 2011 Census mode share (outlined in Figure 2-2, page 5) has been applied to the person trips (shown in Table 2-1). The predicted multi-modal trip generation for the Land at Shendish Manor site is provided in Table 2-2.
7 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/default.asp
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Table 2-2 Multi Modal Trip Generation
AM Peak Hour (08:00-09:00) PM Peak Hour (17:00-18:00) Daily Period (07:00-19:00) Mode Arrive Depart Total Arrive Depart Total Arrive Depart Total
Car / Van (Driver) 64 278 343 198 100 298 1,402 1,472 2,874
Train 12 53 65 37 19 56 265 278 543
On foot 8 34 42 24 12 36 170 179 349
Car / Van (Passenger) 4 15 19 11 6 17 78 82 159
Bus, Minibus or Coach 2 7 9 5 3 8 36 38 74
Bicycle 1 5 6 4 2 6 26 27 54
Motorcycle 1 3 3 2 1 3 13 14 28
Taxi 0 1 2 1 0 1 7 7 14
Total 92 397 488 283 143 425 1,997 2,098 4,095
Note: due to rounding, some totals may not tally.
2.2.6. The multi-modal trip generation estimates that, of the total number of trips generated daily from the Land at Shendish Manor (4,095), 2,874 (70%) will be made by private vehicle (car). Trips made by sustainable modes (walking, cycling, train or bus) will amount to 1,020 trips, of which 543 (53%) will be made by train. This high proportion of trips by train can be attributed to the site being adjacent to Apsley Railway Station, a calling point on the WCML, which provides direct connectivity to London and the West Midlands. The high proportion of car trips can be attributed to the short distance to the A41, M25 and other key strategic road network links. 2.3 TRIP DISTRIBUTION 2.3.1. Vehicle trips anticipated to be generated by the Land at Shendish Manor site have been distributed using journey to work origin-destination data (2011 Census) for the resident population of the Dacorum 022 MSOA. The number of car / van trips, by workplace destination (aggregated at local authority level), was extracted with destinations with 10 or more trips being used as a proxy to determine the typical workplace destinations for local residents. Figure 2-3 outlines the key workplace destinations (at local authority level) for residents of the Dacorum 022 MSOA.
Figure 2-3 Key Destinations (Local Authority) for Residents of Dacorum 022
37% 18% 13% 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Dacorum Watford Three Rivers St Albans Hertsmere Welwyn Hatfield Hillingdon Harrow Chiltern Barnet
Source: Table WU03EW – Location of usual residence and place of work by method of travel to work (MSOA level) (Census, 2011)
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2.3.2. As can be expected, the majority of workplace destinations for residents of Apsley and Kings Langley (Dacorum 022 MSOA) are within the local authority of Dacorum (37%, 399 trips) and the neighbouring authorities of Watford (18, 192 trips) and Three Rivers (13%, 142 trips). 2.4 TRIP ASSIGNMENT 2.4.1. The number of car / van trips, by workplace destination (at MSOA level), was extracted with destinations with 10 or more trips being used as a proxy to determine the typical workplace destinations for local residents. Vehicle trips generated by the Land at Shendish Manor site have then been assigned onto the local highway network for the time periods assessed (AM peak and PM peak) using Google Maps route planner. Where there were multiple route options with similar journey times, vehicle trips have been split equally across all routes (up to a maximum of three). 2.4.2. Three access scenarios have been considered: “Option 1” (two access points – Rucklers Lane and A4251 / Shendish Manor): based upon the Land at Shendish Manor site boundary, it has been assumed that 60% of trips would utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 40% utilising a Rucklers Lane access; “Option 2” (three access points – Rucklers Lane, A4251 / Shendish Manor and Featherbed Lane): based upon the Land at Shendish Manor site boundary, it has been assumed that 40% of trips would still utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 60% of trips utilising a Rucklers Lane access and Featherbed Lane access equally; and “Option 3” (two access points – A4251 / Shendish Manor and Featherbed Lane): based upon the Land at Shendish Manor site boundary, it has been assumed that 60% of trips would utilise the A4251 / Shendish Manor access with the remaining 40% utilising a Featherbed Lane access. 2.4.3. The route assignment of vehicle trips generated by the Land at Shendish Manor site under each option is summarised in Table 2-3, whilst Figure 2-4 translates this diagrammatically to vehicular trips on the highway network. A full suite of network flow diagrams can be seen in Appendix B.
Table 2-3 Route Assignment by Option & Access Point
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Route Assignment %
Lane Lane Lane Lane Lane Lane
Manor Manor Manor
Rucklers Rucklers Rucklers
Shendish Shendish Shendish
Featherbed Featherbed Featherbed
40% 60% 0% 30% 40% 30% 0% 60% 40%
A4251 [South] 60% 24.0% 36.0% 0.0% 18.0% 24.0% 18.0% 0.0% 36.0% 24.0%
Two Waters Road [East] 23% 9.3% 13.9% 0.0% 6.9% 9.3% 6.9% 0.0% 13.9% 9.3%
Featherbed Lane [West] 1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5%
Red Lion Lane [East] 9% 3.5% 5.3% 0.0% 2.7% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% 5.3% 3.5%
Two Waters Road [West] 2% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% 0.8%
Durrants Hill Road [East] 4% 1.5% 2.2% 0.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 2.2% 1.5%
Rucklers Lane [West] 1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
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Figure 2-4 Trip Assignment by Option
Option 1
Option 2
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Option 3
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HIGHWAY NETWORK
3.1 OVERVIEW 3.1.1. This chapter describes the characteristics of the highway network surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor and identifies potential constraints to development, in terms of access. It then assesses the existing (2021) and forecast future (2038 – end of the New Dacorum Local Plan: Emerging Strategy for Growth) capacity of the key junctions outlined in Figure 3-1. This chapter also assesses the capacity of key links that would facilitate a northern access, particularly King Edward Street, Shearwater Road and Featherbed Lane to ensure that this route assignment to the north is feasible.
Figure 3-1 Links & Junctions Assessed
3.2 NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS KEY LINKS 3.2.1. The highway network in and around Apsley provides direct connectivity to key locations – London and the M25 (south) and Birmingham (north) via the A41, Hemel Hempstead (north), St Albans (east) and Chelmsford (east) via the A414 and other destinations from the adjoining road network. The characteristics of key links immediately surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor site (including the A4251, Rucklers Lane, the Shendish Manor access road, Orchard Street, Featherbed Lane, Henry Street, the A414 and the A41) are summarised in Table 3-1.
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Table 3-1 Network Characteristics
Street
-
Type
Road
Access
Parking
Frontage
On
Footways
Operating
Bus Bus Route /
Road Width Road
Speed Speed Limit
Carriageway
Approximate
Infrastructure StreetLighting
A4251 Single 30mph 6.8m Mixed Yes Yes Yes Yes
Rucklers Lane Single 30mph 6.7m Residential Yes Yes Yes No
Shendish Manor Single 30mph 5.2m Residential No No No No
Orchard Street Single 30mph 4.1m Mixed Yes Yes Yes No
Featherbed Lane Single 30mph 6.3m Residential No Yes Yes No
Henry Street Single 30mph 6.5m Residential Yes Yes Yes No
A414 Dual 40mph 17.4m No No Yes Yes Yes
A41 Dual 70mph 20.1m No No No No No KEY JUNCTIONS A2451 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane 3.2.2. The A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane staggered signalised junction is located to the south-east of the Land at Shendish Manor site. The A4251 (southern arm) is single carriageway up until the junction with Abbots Rise (approximately 70m back from the give-way line) where it flares out to provide a two-lane approach, with the left-lane providing for vehicles turning left onto Rucklers Lane or continuing along the A4251 and the right-lane for vehicles turning onto Nash Mills Lane. The remaining arms all provide a single-lane approach to the junction with on- street parking occuring on Rucklers Lane. The Nash Mills Lane arm stopline has recently been moved eastward to allow for an additional signal controlling a local access. Pedestrian crossing facilities (dropped kerbs with tactile paving and central refuge islands) are provided across the Rucklers Lane, A4251 (south) and Nash Mills Lane arms to facilitate crossing movements.
The WCML overbridge and the anticipated extent of highway boundary limits opportunities to provide infrastructure that enhances capacity.
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A2451 / Shendish Manor 3.2.3. The A4251 / Shendish Manor access is a priority T-junction (with right-turn ghost-island) located to the east of the Land at Shendish Manor site. It is within close proximity to a residential access road and the A4251 / Doolittle Meadows roundabout. Informal parking associated with the London Road residential properties limits the available footway on the western side of the A4251. The Shendish Manor access (minor arm) is single carriageway on approach with limited flaring. From the give-way line, it has two 90-degree bends before narrowing to cross the WCML (operating single track “shuttle” working). The A4251 (major arm) is single carriageway with a right-turn ghost island – approximately 25m in legth – facilitating right-turn movements. Footways are located along the A4251 with pedestrian crossing facilities (dropped kerb with central refuge island) provided 15m north of the junction faciliating access to a northbound bus stop (south of the junction). Source: Google Maps
The proximity to other junctions limits the physical measures that can be implemented. The carriageway narrowing over the WCLM is likely to require traffic management.
A4251 / Featherbed Lane / Orchard Street 3.2.4. The A4251 / Featherbed Lane junction is a priority T- junction (with right-turn ghost-island) located to the north of the Land at Shendish Manor site. Featherbed Lane is single carriageway on approach and is restricted to left-turn movements only. The A4251 is single-carriageway and provides a right-turn ghost island. For southbound movements, vehicles are required to use the A4251 / Orchard Street signalised junction, via the Featherbed Lane / Henry Street priority junction. Orchard Street (past Manor Avenue) is one-way and restricted to right-turn movements only, whilst the A4251 is restricted to ahead movements. Both the A4251 and Orchard Street are single carriageways on approach with offset on-street parking for residential / commercial usage. Footways are present along all carriageways with pedestrian crossing facilities (dropped kerbs with tactile paving and central refuge islands to the north) facilitating crossing movements. Source: Google Maps
Southbound vehicles are required to route through Henry Street and Orchard street, which removes this conflicting movement from the A4251 / Featherbed Lane junction.
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3.3 TRAFFIC FLOWS 3.3.1. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, traffic surveys on the highway network surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor may not currently provide outputs that are representative of typical traffic flows and the Department for Transport (DfT) has indicated that traffic levels may not stabilise to a “new normal” for a sustained period. However, Hertfordshire County Council (HCC) recognise the need for a pragmatic approach to data which considers each site and application on a case by case basis; therefore, a site-specific traffic survey methodology has been developed. METHODOLOGY 3.3.2. Historic Manual Classified Count (MCC) data, collected on the 04 December 2018, was obtained from HCC for the A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane junction. This data has been uplifted to 2021 using the Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPro) v7.2, using the National Trip End Model (NTEM) and National Traffic Model (NTM) AF15 datasets. 3.3.3. In addition, WSP commissioned additional MCC surveys at the locations shown in Figure 3-2 during February 2021. The data was collected on a neutral weekday between 07:00-10:00 and 16:00-19:00 to capture the AM and PM peak traffic profiles. The data is classified by vehicle types and queue length data has also been collected.
Figure 3-2 Traffic Survey Methodology
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3.3.4. The junctions where data has been collected were selected on the basis that these junctions could experience notable changes in traffic flows as a result of development-related traffic (see Chapter 2 for details on anticipated trip generation / assignment). The locations surveyed in 2021 also include data of a junction contained within the Hertfordshire Countywide Model of Transport (COMET) which has been used for validation purposes. The raw survey data can be seen in Appendix C. VALIDATION 3.3.5. A search of publicly available data, recent planning applications and following enquiries with HCC’s Data Team has led to the identification of one historical dataset which is relevant to the network surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor which can be used to validate the 2021 observed traffic flow data. Turning count data for the A4251 / Featherbed Lane junction (obtained from COMET for the base year of 2014) has been uplifted to 2021 using TEMPro v7.2 and the NTEM and NTM AF15 datasets. 3.3.6. The uplifted COMET flows were then used to determine how representative the observed flows (at the same location) were. This analysis indicated that the observed dataset was likely underestimating the traffic volumes of the local highway network; therefore, growth factors (derived from the percentage difference between the datasets) were applied to the observed data to generate a 2021 baseline representative of more “typical” conditions on the local road network. The traffic flow validation process can be seen in Appendix D. 3.3.7. In addition, as the surveys were undertaken under national lockdown restrictions, traffic flows at the A4251 / Shendish Manor priority junction were still deemed unrepresentative as the hotel and golf course were closed; thereby not attracting any trips. Vehicular trip rates were obtained from TRICS using the “Golf – Private 18 Hole Courses” and “Hotels” categories with the associated vehicular trips assigned onto the surrounding highway network using turning proportions derived from the observed survey data. The trips are considered conservative and therefore robust as the Shendish Manor & Golf Course are unlikely to operate in a similar manner to the hotel sites included within TRICS. TEMPRO GROWTH 3.3.8. For the purposes of this TN, the capacity of the junctions on the highway network surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor site has been assessed to a future forecast year of 2038 – aligning in strict accordance with the end date of the forthcoming Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth. The 2021 turning count data (validated) has subsequently been uplifted to 2038 using TEMPro v7.2 and the NTEM and NTM AF15 datasets. 3.3.9. The TEMPro growth factors, for the validation process and the future forecast year calculation, for urban principal roads in the Dacorum 022 MSOA – within which the Land at Shendish Manor lies – are summarised in Table 3-2.
Table 3-2 TEMPro Growth Factors to Uplift Traffic Flows
TEMPro Growth Factors AM Peak Period PM Peak Period
Dacorum 022 MSOA 2018-2021 1.0581 1.0579
Dacorum 022 MSOA 2014-2021 1.0990 1.0996
Dacorum 022 MSOA 2021-2038 1.1262 1.1378
Source: Trip End Model Presentation Program v7.2, National Trip End Model and National Traffic Model AF15 datasets
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LINK FLOWS 2021 Base & 2038 Base 3.3.10. Following the aforementioned methodology to data collection and validation, the resultant 2021 and 2038 baseline two-way link flows are provided in Table 3-3. The link flows are presented in passenger car units (PCUs) – a unit of measurement of traffic flow, or capacity, which is equivalent to a single car – for the AM (08:00-09:00) and PM (17:00-18:00) peak hours respectively. Network flow diagrams demonstrating the “2020 Baseline” and “2038 Baseline” scenario traffic flows are provided in Appendix B.
Table 3-3 Network Two-Way PCUs – 2021 Base & 2038 Base
2021 Base 2038 Base Junction Arm AM Peak PM Peak AM Peak PM Peak
A4251 [South] 1,507 1,214 1,697 1,382
Rucklers Lane 177 176 199 200 A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane A4251 [North] 1,346 1,142 1,516 1,299
Nash Mills Lane 1,084 1,040 1,221 1,183
A4251 [South] 793 887 893 1,009
A4251 / Shendish Manor Shendish Manor Access 100 80 113 92 Access
A4251 [North] 818 900 921 1,024
A4251 [South] 1,085 1,210 1,222 1,377
A4251 / Orchard Street Orchard Street 77 69 87 79
A4251 [North] 1,008 1,141 1,135 1,299
A4251 [South] 1,021 1,142 1,150 1,299
A4251 / Featherbed Lane Featherbed Lane 377 351 425 399
A4251 [North] 1,226 1,315 1,381 1,496
Featherbed Lane [East] 354 312 398 354
Featherbed Lane / Henry Henry Street 71 53 79 60 Street
Featherbed Lane [West] 390 343 439 390 3.3.11. The baseline traffic flows indicate that the A4251 and Nash Mills Lane are more heavily trafficked in the peak hours compared to the rest of the highway network surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor site. This is expected, as the A4251 forms the main arterial route through Apsley and Kings Langley to access the A41 / A414 to the north and the A41 / M25 to the south. Nash Mills Lane provides accessibility to Abbot’s Hill School and the commercial sector off Rose Lane, to the east of the River Gade (part of Grand Union Canal in this location), approximately 250m east of the A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane signalised junction.
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2038 Base + Development 3.3.12. The vehicular trips associated with the Land at Shendish Manor site, for all three access options (shown in Figure 2-4, page 8), have been added to the 2038 future year baseline to form the “2038 Baseline + Development (Option 1)”, 2038 Baseline + Development (Option 2)” and 2038 Baseline + Development (Option 3)” scenarios. Table 3-4 presents the two-way link flows (in PCUs) for these scenarios and indicates the percentage change on the links as a result of development of the Land at Shendish Manor site. Network flow diagrams for these scenarios are shown in Appendix B.
Table 3-4 Network Two-Way PCUs – 2038 Base + Development Options
2038 Base + Dev (Option 1) 2038 Base + Dev (Option 2) 2038 Base + Dev (Option 3) Junction Arm AM Peak PM Peak AM Peak PM Peak AM Peak PM Peak
A4251 [South] 1,902 12% 1,560 13% 1,902 12% 1,560 13% 1,902 12% 1,560 13% Mills
Rucklers Lane 334 68% 318 59% 300 51% 289 44% 203 2% 204 2% Lane
A4251 [North] 1,698 12% 1,458 12% 1,711 13% 1,470 13% 1,755 16% 1,508 16%
Lane / / Lane Rucklers A4251 / Nash A4251/ Nash Mills Lane 1,251 2% 1,210 2% 1,251 2% 1,210 2% 1,251 2% 1,210 2%
A4251 [South] 1,075 20% 1,168 16% 1,089 22% 1,179 17% 1,132 27% 1,218 21%
Shendish Manor Access 316 180% 268 193% 248 120% 209 129% 317 182% 270 195%
Manor
Access
A4251 / A4251/ Shendish A4251 [North] 1,024 11% 1,114 9% 1,064 15% 1,148 12% 1,079 17% 1,161 13%
A4251 [South] 1,312 7% 1,456 6% 1,359 11% 1,497 9% 1,377 13% 1,512 10%
Orchard Street 88 1% 81 3% 148 70% 102 30% 169 95% 109 39%
Street
A4251 / A4251/ Orchard
A4251 [North] 1,225 8% 1,375 6% 1,212 7% 1,395 7% 1,208 6% 1,403 8%
A4251 [South] 1,239 8% 1,376 6% 1,226 7% 1,396 7% 1,222 6% 1,404 8%
Featherbed Lane 428 1% 400 0% 467 10% 465 17% 480 13% 488 22%
Lane
A4251 / A4251/ Featherbed A4251 [North] 1,467 6% 1,571 5% 1,467 6% 1,571 5% 1,467 6% 1,571 5%
Featherbed Lane [East] 402 1% 356 0% 440 11% 421 19% 454 14% 444 25%
Henry Street 80 1% 62 4% 140 77% 83 39% 162 104% 91 52%
Street
Featherbed Lane / / Lane Henry Featherbed Lane [West] 443 1% 394 1% 542 24% 480 23% 577 31% 510 31% 3.3.13. The Land at Shendish Manor would have the highest impact upon two-way link flows on the Shendish Manor access, Rucklers Lane and Featherbed Lane / Henry Street / Orchard Street – dependent upon the assignment option. This is to be expected as these links would form the primary access / egress points onto the surrounding highway network from the Land at Shendish Manor and currently have relatively low base traffic flows. The impact of the Land at Shendish Manor on the A4251 is lower with two-way traffic flows increasing by up to 15% (except at the A4251 / Shendish Manor priority junction where the impact is marginally greater – up to 27%). Across the remainder of the network assessed, the Land at Shendish Manor site would have a lesser impact upon two-way link flows.
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3.4 JUNCTION CAPACITY 3.4.1. To understand the existing (2021) and future forecast (2038) performance of junctions on the local highway network surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor site, a series of junction capacity assessments have been undertaken. The following sections provide details on the modelling software used to assess the different junction types, before detailing the modelling results for each of the junctions assessed in the “2021 Baseline”, “2038 Baseline”, “2038 Baseline + Development (Option 1)”, “2038 Baseline + Development (Option 2)” and “2038 Baseline + Development (Option 3)” scenarios. Model outputs for all junctions and all scenarios can be viewed at Appendix E. SOFTWARE 3.4.2. Table 3-5 provides an overview of the modelling software that has been used to assess each of the junctions surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor site. It outlines the modelling software and their critical outputs (which have been presented within this TN) to assess the capacity of a junction.
Table 3-5 Modelling Software
Junction Type Software Overview Junctions
The Priority Intersection Capacity and Delay (PICADY) module of Junctions 9 has been used to assess the capacity of the priority junctions. A4251 / Shendish Manor The Ratio of Flow to Capacity (RFC) model output is typically used to assess the performance of each arm. The Design Manual for Roads Priority and Bridges8 (DMRB) industry-standard 0.85 RFC threshold is A4251 / Featherbed Lane Junctions generally accepted for new junctions, with an RFC of up to 1.00 generally accepted for the operation of existing junctions in peak periods. Featherbed Lane / Henry Street The traffic flows have been entered in PCUs and the Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) percentage for each movement has been calculated using the traffic survey data (validated) collected.
The Lincoln Signals (LinSig) v3 software has been used to assess the capacity of the signalised junctions. To ensure that the LinSig models operate in accordance with the on- site specification, the models have been calibrated using traffic signal controller specification data obtained from HCC – attached as Appendix F. Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane Signalised The traffic flows have been entered into the models in PCUs and the
Junctions critical outputs from the model are the Degree of Saturation (DoS) and Practical Reserve Capacity (PRC). Orchard Street The DoS identifies the ratio of saturation to capacity of each individual link or lane whilst the PRC is a measure of how much additional traffic demand can be accommodated at the junction, before it operates over- capacity (i.e. at least one lane with a DoS value greater than 90%). DoS is presented within this TN with the threshold of 90% adopted to ascertain whether the junction operates over-capacity. 3.4.3. Under normal circumstances, as per the DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance9 (WebTAG), the “2021 Baseline” modelled queues would be compared to observed queue data to allow an assessment to be made of the models’ ability to predict the junction operation. Naturally, in the current Covid-19 situation, this has not been possible.
8 https://www.standardsforhighways.co.uk/dmrb/ 9 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-tag
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3.4.4. The quality and reliability of observed queue length data is generally low due to the subjective nature of the collection method. It is therefore not appropriate to rely on the observed data for detailed calibration purposes, i.e. to aim to make a detailed match between the modelled and observed queue lengths. A4251 / NASH MILLS LANE / RUCKLERS LANE 3.4.5. The turning flow matrices for the AM and PM peak hours for all scenarios have been used to run the LinSig model for the A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane signalised junction. The LinSig capacity assessment results for all scenarios are summarised in Table 3-6. 3.4.6. The junction has been run on a cycle time of 120 seconds, resulting in 30 cycles an hour. It has been assumed that there will be lower demand on both the Nash Mills Side Road and the pedestrian crossings in relation to the traffic phases. A LinSig Model provides results for the average stages in an hour and assumes that all stages run every cycle; however, in cases where there are demand dependencies, this over-estimates the green time available to the demand-dependant stages and under-estimates the green time that is available for the non-demand dependant stages. In this model, to account for this demand dependency, positive bonus greens have been added to the main traffic stage to account for the additional green time per cycle that the main traffic stage runs due to the demand dependant stage not running. 3.4.7. Negative bonus greens have been applied to the demand dependant stage to account for the amount of time it does not run for when not called. It has been assumed that demand on the Nash Mills Lane side road will be approximately four phases per hour, while the pedestrian demand will be six phases per hour.
Table 3-6 A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane: LinSig Summary (DoS)
2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2021 Base 2038 Base (Option 1) (Option 2) (Option 3) Arm / Lane
AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM
A4251 [North] 1/1 91.8% 86.3% 118.0% 111.2% 128.5% 118.4% 124.6% 115.8% 126.5% 115.6%
Nash Mills Lane 2/1 99.9% 89.1% 119.0% 113.0% 127.1% 117.2% 127.3% 117.0% 123.6% 117.2%
Rucklers Lane 3/1 80.2% 69.0% 101.5% 79.4% 122.3% 102.0% 126.6% 105.8% 102.4% 81.2%
A2451 [South] 4/1+4/2 93.4% 88.3% 110.9% 112.7% 124.0% 117.9% 124.0% 117.9% 117.1% 117.9%
Nash Mills Side Rd 9/1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4.8. The model outputs indicate that the A4251 / Nash Mills / Rucklers Lane signalised junction is forecast to operate with reserve capacity in both peak hours in the 2021 base scenario. The DoS is notably lower on the Rucklers Lane arm; however, the DoS is between 85% and 100% on all other arms. The impact of background traffic growth pushes the junction over capacity in the 2038 base scenario in both peaks, with the DoS being between 100-120% across all arms, except for the Rucklers Lane arm during the PM Peak. 3.4.9. It is evident from Table 3-6 that traffic associated with the Land at Shendish Manor would have an impact on the junction, as the DoS increases in all three options from the 2038 base results. It should be noted that once a LinSig model is running over capacity, slight increases in traffic flows can destabilise the model and have a profound impact on results.
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3.4.10. As the A4251 / Nash Mills / Rucklers Lane junction is a key junction for southbound traffic, it is inevitable under all three with development scenarios that a significant proportion of traffic will travel through the junction. As a result of this, the junction operates over capacity in all three scenarios. As option 3 removes the assumed site access onto Rucklers Lane, a significant drop in traffic flows is seen on this arm, with capacity at circa pre-development levels. In addition, option 3 also reduces DoS on all other arms below that of Option 1, i.e. no access to the north. 3.4.11. As a result of the junction operating over capacity in all three options, mitigation measures are likely to be required in order for the junction to operate sufficiently under the increased traffic flows. A4251 / SHENDISH MANOR 3.4.12. The turning flow matrices for the AM and PM peak hours for all scenarios have been used to run the PICADY model for the A4251 / Shendish manor priority junction. The PICADY capacity assessment results for all scenarios are summarised in Table 3-7.
Table 3-7 A4251 / Shendish Manor: PICADY Summary (RFC)
2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2021 Base 2038 Base (Option 1) (Option 2) (Option 3) Arm / Lane
AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM
A4251 [South] N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Shendish Manor 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.06 0.49 0.21 0.36 0.17 0.51 0.22
A4251 [North] 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.1 0.14 0.09 0.12 0.1 0.15 3.4.13. The model outputs indicate that the A4251 / Shendish Manor priority junction is forecast to operate with reserve capacity in both peak hours across all scenarios. The RFC is below 0.85 on all arms, and queues / delays are relatively short. A4251 / ORCHARD STREET 3.4.14. The turning flow matrices for the AM and PM peak hours for all scenarios have been used to run the LinSig model for the A4251 / Orchard Street signalised junction. The LinSig capacity assessment results for all scenarios are summarised in Table 3-8.
Table 3-8 A4251 / Orchard Street: LinSig Summary (DoS)
2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2021 Base 2038 Base (Option 1) (Option 2) (Option 3) Arm / Lane
AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM
A4251 [North] 1/1 31.5% 30.5% 35.5% 34.7% 36.0% 37.8% 39.0% 37.9% 40.2% 37.6%
A4251 [South] 2/1 34.7% 41.5% 39.1% 47.2% 43.3% 48.9% 46.7% 52.6% 48.1% 53.4%
Orchard Street 3/1 34.5% 41.2% 39.0% 47.2% 43.0% 48.4% 46.8% 49.9% 47.8% 53.8% 3.4.15. The model outputs indicate that the A4251 / Orchard Street signalised junctions is forecast to operate with reserve capacity in both peak hours across all scenarios. The DoS is below 90% on all arms, and queues / delays are relatively short.
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A4251 / FEATHERBED LANE 3.4.16. The turning flow matrices for the AM and PM peak hours for all scenarios have been used to run the PICADY model for the A4251 / Featherbed Lane priority junction. The PICADY capacity assessment results for all scenarios are summarised in Table 3-9.
Table 3-9 A4251 / Featherbed Lane: PICADY Summary (RFC)
2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2021 Base 2038 Base (Option 1) (Option 2) (Option 3) Arm / Lane
AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM
A4251 [South] N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Featherbed Lane 0.25 0.19 0.29 0.23 0.3 0.23 0.33 0.24 0.34 0.25
A4251 [North] 0.33 0.36 0.38 0.43 0.39 0.44 0.4 0.48 0.41 0.5 3.4.17. The model outputs indicate that the A4251 / Featherbed Lane priority junction is forecast to operate with reserve capacity in both peak hours across all scenarios. The RFC is below 0.85 on all arms, and queues / delays are relatively short. FEATHERBED LANE / HENRY STREET 3.4.18. The turning flow matrices for the AM and PM peak hours for all scenarios have been used to run the PICADY model for the Featherbed Lane / Henry Street priority junction. The PICADY capacity assessment results for all scenarios are summarised in Table 3-10.
Table 3-10 Featherbed Lane / Henry Street: PICADY Summary (RFC)
2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2038 Base + Dev 2021 Base 2038 Base (Option 1) (Option 2) (Option 3) Arm / Lane
AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM
Featherbed Lane [East] N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Henry Street 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Featherbed Lane [West] 0.11 0.08 0.13 0.1 0.13 0.1 0.27 0.15 0.32 0.17 3.4.19. The model outputs indicate that the Featherbed Lane / Henry Street priority junction is forecast to operate with reserve capacity in both peak hours across all scenarios. The RFC is below 0.85 on all arms, and queues / delays are relatively short.
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3.5 LINK CAPACITY 3.5.1. The junction capacity assessments, covered in Section 3.4, indicate that it would be advisable and necessary to provide a northern vehicular access, through the Vistry Group (Bovis Homes) development – utilising the ADL land parcel – to dissipate the potential impacts of the Land at Shendish Manor on the surrounding highway network. It is therefore important to ensure that the surrounding highway links have sufficient capacity to accommodate any additional demand. 3.5.2. Guidance in Manual for Streets10 (MfS) highlights that carriageway widths should be appropriate for the particular context and uses of a street, taking into consideration the volume of vehicular traffic, the traffic composition and the design speed. Table 4.1.1.1 of Roads in Hertfordshire11 (RiH) – the current design guidance at the time of writing – sets out that up to 300 dwellings can be served from a 5.5m access road; however, for wider local distributor roads, such as those of King Edward Street, Shearwater Road and Featherbed Lane (typically >6m wide), there is no guidance on the maximum number of dwellings that can be served. 3.5.3. As MfS and RiH do not specifically provide guidance on the volume of vehicular traffic that a highway can accommodate; TA 79/99 Traffic Capacity of Urban Roads of the DMRB has been used to assess the potential capacity of Shearwater Road, King Edward Street and Featherbed Lane. It is noted that TA 79/99 was withdrawn in May 2020; however, it has yet to be replaced by any similar documentation. As such, at the time of writing this TN, TA 79/99 remains the most relevant guidance to assess highway link capacity. 3.5.4. TA 79/99 provides the maximum hourly vehicle capacity that can be achieved for different road types and widths. Capacity is defined as the maximum sustainable flow of traffic passing in one-hour, under favourable road and traffic conditions. For the purpose of this TN, it is assumed that Shearwater Road, King Edward Street and Featherbed Lane would be classed as an Urban All-Purpose Road (UAP) Type 2 which is characterised as a good standard single (or dual) carriageway road with frontage access, more than two side roads per kilometre, access to residential properties, restricted parking and loading and some at-grade pedestrian crossings and bus stops at kerbsides. Table 3-11 outlines the one-way hourly capacity (for the busiest direction of flow) for UAP Type 2 roads, taken directly from TA 79/99.
Table 3-11 Capacities of Urban Road (One-Way Hourly Flows)
Two-Way Single Carriageway – Busiest Direction Flow
(Assumes a 60 / 40 Directional Split)
Total Number of Lanes (Lanes Per Direction) 2 (1) 2 (1) 2 (1) 2 (1)
Carriageway Width 6.10m 6.75m 7.30m 9.00m
Capacity (UAP2) 1,020 1,260 1,470 1,550
Source: Capacities of Urban Road one-way hourly flows in each direction, TA 79/99 Traffic Capacity of Urban Roads (DMRB, 1991)
10 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/341513/pdfmanforstreets.pdf 11 https://www.hertfordshire.gov.uk/media-library/documents/highways/development-management/section-4-design-standards-and-advice.pdf
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3.5.5. Using Ordnance Survey (OS) mapping, the width of Shearwater Road, King Edward Street and Featherbed Lane are assessed to be a minimum of 6.1m wide. Therefore, according to TA 79/99 they each have sufficient capacity to accommodate 1,020 vehicles (one-way). Using the forecast 2038 link flow data for Featherbed Lane (without any flows associated with the Land at Shendish Manor site), it is anticipated that a maximum of 230 vehicles trips (one-way, westbound) occur in the AM peak hour and a maximum of 232 vehicles trips (one-way, westbound) occur in the PM peak hour. Based upon satellite imagery, it has been calculated that approximately 120 dwellings are served by Shearwater Road and approximately 320 dwellings are currently served by King Edward Street. Applying the Featherbed Lane link flows proportionally to Shearwater Road (27%) and King Edward Street (73%) results in the anticipated link flows, as shown in Figure 3-3.
Figure 3-3 Anticipated Link Flows (Vehicles): 2038 Baseline
1200 1000 800 600 400 223 230 232 163 168 165 121 169 200 60 62 45 63 0 Northbound / Eastbound Southbound / Westbound Northbound / Eastbound Southbound / Westbound AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Featherbed Lane King Edward Street Shearwater Road Capacity
3.5.6. The data indicates that there is sufficient capacity for all three links to support additional development. Using the trip generation assumptions, outlined within Chapter 2 of this TN, the number of additional dwellings that can be accommodated by Featherbed Lane (Shearwater Road and King Edward Street both ultimately feed Featherbed Lane) has been calculated, as shown in Table 3-12.
Table 3-12 Additional Dwellings Accommodatable by Featherbed Lane
AM Peak Hour (08:00-09:00) PM Peak Hour (17:00-18:00)
Arrivals (Westbound) Departures (Eastbound) Arrivals (Westbound) Departures (Eastbound)
2038 Capacity
Capacity 1020 1020 1020 1020
Existing Usage 230 223 232 165
Residual Capacity 790 797 788 855
Additional Dwellings
Trip Rate (per dwelling) 0.183 0.793 0.565 0.285
Person Trips (1,430 dwellings) 262 1,134 808 408
Vehicular Trips (70.2%) 184 796 567 286
Residual Capacity 606 1 221 569
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3.5.7. The analysis indicates that an additional 1,430 dwellings can be accommodated by Featherbed Lane before it reaches its one-way theoretical capacity, according to TA 79/99. Therefore, if a northern access were to be established through the Vistry Group (Bovis Homes) development – utilising the ADL land parcel – there would be sufficient link capacity to accommodate development on the Land at Shendish Manor.
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SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
4.1 SUMMARY PURPOSE 4.1.1. This TN has been prepared to assess the potential impact of developing the Land at Shendish Manor site (for residential use) on the local highway network, ensuring that the delivery of the site will not cause any significant impacts on the transport network (in terms of capacity and congestion). The purpose of this TN is to demonstrate that the site constitutes a suitable location for allocation within the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth. HIGHWAY NETWORK ASSESSMENT 4.1.2. Under the trip generation, distribution and assignment assumptions made within this TN, the subsequent junction capacity assessments at key junction surrounding the Land at Shendish Manor site, demonstrate that there is sufficient capacity at all junctions in the 2038 future year, except for the A4251 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane signalised junction. 4.1.3. The A4521 / Nash Mills Lane / Rucklers Lane signalised junction is predicted to operate over capacity in the 2038 base scenario in both peaks, with the DoS being between 100-120% across all arms, except for the Rucklers Lane arm during the PM Peak. As the A4251 / Nash Mills / Rucklers Lane signalised junction is a key junction for southbound traffic, it is inevitable under all three options that a significant proportion of traffic will travel through the junction; therefore, the junction still operates over capacity and slightly worsens compared with the baseline. However, Option 3 removes the assumed site access(es) onto Rucklers Lane, resulting in a significant drop in traffic flows on this arm, reducing the capacity to circa pre-development levels. In addition, Option 3 also reduces DoS on all other arms below that of Option 1, i.e. no access to the north. Featherbed Lane and its approaches have enough link flow capacity to support additional development, that would be related with the provision of a northern access to the Land at Shendish Manor. 4.1.4. It is concluded that the inclusion of a northern access through the Vistry (Bovis Homes) development, but excluding the Rucklers Lane access, largely remedies the increased congestion issues at the A4521 / Nash Mills / Rucklers Lane signalised junction caused by the impact of the Land at Shendish Manor development with a Rucklers Lane access in place. It follows that a northern access point to the site, via the ADL land parcel and the Vistry (Bovis Homes) development would facilitate the delivery of the Land at Shendish Manor site. 4.2 CONCLUSION 4.2.1. This TN concludes that the introduction of a northern access point to the site, via the ADL land parcel and the Vistry (Bovis Homes) development, suitably addresses the concerns raised by DBC regarding the potential allocation of the site in the Dacorum Local Plan (2020-2038): Emerging Strategy for Growth. The northern access point will minimise the impact of any development at the site on the highway network; therefore, the site is deemed a suitable location for allocation as there are no significant highway grounds not to progress the Land at Shendish Manor site.
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