The Interaction of Demographic Processes in the Spanish Provinces, 1858-2011: An Event-Centered Approach

José Antonio Ortega [email protected] Universidad de Salamanca

Jesús Sánchez Barricarte [email protected] Universidad Carlos III de DRAFT, AUGUST 2, 2013

Presented at the XXVII IUSSP International Population Conference, Busan 2013

Introduction Demographic dynamics are the joint result of three different processes: mortality, fertility and migration. Demographic analysis tends to focus on the first two processes that define natural growth, and see migration and its rather unstable patterns as a nuisance. We would argue, however, that, particularly for small units of analysis like the Spanish provinces, migration is the main driver of population dynamics, and that it is not possible to understand the long-term process of urbanization and suburbanization while ignoring population movements. has a total population in 2012 of 47 million, made up of 52 NUTS-3 regions: the 50 provinces and the 2 autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. They range in population from 80000 to the 5.5 and 6.4 million of Barcelona and Madrid. Median population in 2012 is 650000 compared to 33000 in the 1900 census. An advantage of the Spanish territorial structure is that it has kept the same structure of provinces throughout all the statistical period that started with the 1857 census.1 This makes it possible to trace changes over the complete demographic transition period, and throughout most of the urbanization process since the largest cities at the onset of registration, Madrid and Barcelona, both had less than 300000 inhabitants.

In contrast to traditional demographic methods, we do not focus on the separation of demographic phenomena. We are rather interested in the interaction between

1 The only changes happened in the 1920s, when Canarias was split into the two provinces of Las Palmas and Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and when Ceuta segregated from the province of Cádiz. Melilla was in and out of the administrative system. For this reason, in this paper we focus on the original 19th century administrative structure for which we can trace the complete statistical period. That is why we present results for the Canary Islands as a whole and for the combination of Ceuta and Cádiz.

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 1 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 demographic processes, so that we can understand the contribution of migration to natural growth. Event-centered demographic measures (Ortega and Del Rey, 2011; Ortega, 2012; Ortega 2013) provide composite measures of mortality and replacement that have a dual interpretation in a closed population, and, especially, in a closed and stable population. They, therefore, provide, an “as if” interpretation of the contribution of migration. For instance, we introduce a measure of aggregate presence which would equal life expectancy in a closed stable population. It is therefore a measure of person- years lived. An aggregate presence of 100 has the interpretation that presence in the population is “as if” people born in the region lived for a hundred years, when life expectancy might be 40 years. This provides a useful analogy that makes it easy to understand the impact of migration.

The event-based measures we analyze are based on using as denominators time series of births by sex for the units of analysis. This is the first goal of this paper: the reconstruction of births by province and sex since 1858. Once the number of births is available, vital events can be “reduced” by dividing them by cohort size at birth, and aggregated to produce composite summary measures of mortality and replacement. The structure of the paper is as follows: first, we describe the process of reconstruction of the number of births and present the resulting data. Then, event-centered methods are presented and current knowledge about demographic processes in the Spanish provinces summarized. Finally, we develop three applications of the methods: the study of presence, that puts in relation population census counts to cohort size at birth; reduced deaths, that put in relation the number of deaths to the cohort size at birth; and reduced births, that provide a measure of birth replacement.

Reconstruction of the number of births, 1858-2011 The time series of births by province and sex provide the denominators for the different event-centered measures. They can be estimated from the Spanish vital registration system, contained in a number of publications under the name of “Natural Population Movement” (Movimiento Natural de Población, henceforth MNP). Unfortunately the existing data does not provide reliable figures of births by sex for every single year in the period 1858-2011. These are, in summary, the transformation required in chronological order

1858-1870 The Spanish Vital Registration system was not born out of nowhere. It actually evolved from the centuries-old system of registration of baptisms, marriages and burials by the Catholic church. This system was comprehensive and virtually universal, but it did not

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 2 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 have the compilation of statistics as a goal. The first two MNP volumes were produced for the periods 1858-1862 and 1861-1870 by the State through the compilation of events recorded by the church (Reher and Valero Lobo, 2005). This had the caveat, for instance, that children dying before baptism were not considered in the figures for “births”, although they were reported –in some years- as children dying before baptism. The volume for 1861-1870 is the only one in the 19th century that had information on distribution by sex. It does not show systematic patterns of omission of female births as the publications based on civil registration from the early 1900s. This is shown in figure 1, where the male to female birth ratio is shown in each of the provinces together with two limit lines corresponding to the binomial test of a birth ratio of 1.058. No systematic patterns above the limit lines of 95 and 99 percent are observed, indicating that it is generally not possible to reject a “natural” sex birth ratio of 1.058. We therefore use the observed sex ratio for the years 1861-1870. For the years with no information by sex in the 19th century, we use a standard proportion of females of 0.4886.

Another problem is that the summary series for 1861-1870 published in several sources, including MNP, is not homogeneous. A careful reading of the 1861-1870 shows that the figures include the number of children dying before baptism in some years but not in others. In addition, the number of children dying before baptism is only dissagregated in those born dead and those dead before baptism for the 1862-1868 period. A local level smoother (Durbin and Koopman, 2012) is estimated at the province level for the ratio of the proportion of children born alive dead before baptism to the total number of births. The forecasts for such model imply using the same smooth value for the first/last year in retroprojection/projection.

1871-1877 The only data gap in the complete period corresponds to 1871-1877, years of political turmoil. No estimates of births by sex and province (or even National level) have ever been published, to our knowledge. We fill the data gap is the use of sex and single-year of age distribution from the 1877 and 1887 censuses. The idea is that there should be a smooth transition between the ratio of presence in 1887 to the observed number of births (for both sexes) for the generations born before 1871 and after 1877. Such smooth trend is then interpolated for the years 1871-1877, and the interpolated presence ratio is applied to the population count to derive the total number of births by province. A problem is that, for some provinces but not all of them at these ages, there is some age- heaping. The procedure we have used is the following: (a) a local-level smoother is estimated for the population 1-30 years old in the 1887 census. This is flexible enough to be equal to the observed number when the variance in the count by age is not too big, and provide a smooth estimate when there are wide fluctuations connected to age-

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 3 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 heaping, (b) The ratio of the population count to the number of births (reduced presence) is obtained for the years with available information on the total number of births, (c) Reduced presence is interpolated for the years 1871-1877, (d) The number of births for the period 1871-1877 is estimated as the ratio of the smoothed population count to the interpolated reduced presence.

1878-1899 There is information on the number of births by province for the complete period, with no information on sex. We use a standard proportion of females of 0.4886. The information for years 1886-1892 is available in the MNP for those years. The information for 1878- 1888 was made available in a table published in the official government journal Gaceta de Madrid on April 29, 1891 (p. 350). Information for the period 1893-1899 was published in the MNP for 1900 only.

1900-2011 The MNP has been published annually without interruption since 1900 classified by sex. The figures for the early part of the 1900s are known to have problems connected to the under-registration of female births and possible omission of births, which can be quite drastic in some provinces (Viciana, 1998; Blanes, 2007). In order to assess the underregistration of female births, figure 2 shows the 95% and 99% binomial test rejection limits for a sex ratio at birth of 1.058. Two features are visible: first, the limits vary very much by province and period, and quite high sex ratios at birth can be consistent with a balanced registration so that a one-for-all adjustment as suggested by Viciana (1998) and Blanes (2007) might not be a good idea. Second, there are wide differences according to regions, with provinces like Albacete, Almeria, Málaga, Murcia or Asturias showing extremely high male birth ratios than can only be explained by sex-selective birth omission, since there is no such sex imbalance in the Census. There are also some provinces that started with relatively low ratios but have periods of high ratios in the 1910s, like Canarias or Granada. From the 1930s the problem of sex-selective birth registration seems over seems the sex ratios at birth are consistent with the expectations when there is a balanced underlying sex ratio at birth.

The solution we have devised is based on the underlying binomial statistical model. In figure 3 are shown in blue the periods in which the sex ratio at birth is over the 75% limit based on a balanced distribution. If the distributions were random draws from the binomial, one would expect that one in four years the value is above the threshold, that is: a probability of 0.25 of being over the threshold. Smooth lowess estimates of the probability of being over the threshold are shown in blue. The provinces with problems of birth registration are detected by smooth probabilities close to one, meaning that

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 4 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 unbalanced sex ratios at birth are observed every year. Whenever the probability is above 75%, a corrected number of births for females has been obtained by using the 75% limit in a population with an underlying sex ratio at birth of 1.058 and where the number of births was equal to the number of male births multiplied by 2.058/1.058.

No further adjustment has been made to the number of births for the earlier period, although it is important to note a change occurring in 1975 from births registered according to place of registration to place of mother’s residence. This implies a minor break in the series for provinces where a part of the resident population would give birth in a different province.

Reconstructed number of births by sex The reconstructed number of births by sex from 1858 to 2011 is shown in figure 4. The results are extremely interesting since the Spanish provinces show very different long- term dynamics. In one extreme, there are the regions having almost continuous growth until the 1970s with a U shaped pattern since then to 2011. They are mostly provinces traditionally attracting immigrants, like Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Gipuzkoa or Bizkaia. The rising number of births is fueled first by high fertility and a rising population, and mainly by a rising population afterwards. In the other extreme, there are provinces where the number of births has not ceased to diminish for the last 150 years. Those are traditionally sending provinces such as Ávila, , Huesca, Segovia or Teruel. In between these extremes there are different combinations of growth and increase. In particular, trends have been reversed in the 2000s thanks to immigration in some of the traditionally sending provinces such as Guadalajara, Toledo, Girona or Castellón.

Event-Centered methods

The standard demographic approach to study how migration, mortality and fertility interact is based on the separation of each of the processes, with measures like life expectancy, the total fertility rate or the total migration rate (Henry, 1959;Shyrock and Siegel, 1973). These “pure” measures are then combined into synthetic cohort measures of reproduction, like the Net Reproduction Rate (NRR), or replacement, like those described by Calot and Sardon (2001). Recently proposed measures based on an event- centered perspective (Del Rey and Ortega, 2011; Ortega, 2012; Ortega, 2013), take the opposite approach: First derive composite measures of replacement or mortality that do not require any assumption of separability, and then separate, to the extent required, for interpretation. This approach has an additional advantage: given the retrospective nature of the indicators, it focuses on what has happened to real populations. Instead,

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 5 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 prospective synthetic-cohort indicators like the NRR only tell what would happen in the future if the unlikely scenario of constant mortality and fertility and no migration were to hold. But those conditions have never happened in any real population.

The great advantage of using composite measures is the treatment of migration. Migration processes, inherently less stable than fertility and mortality, have a large impact on population dynamics, particularly at the subnational level. For this reason, the common exclusive use of fertility and reproduction measures for subnational populations leaves aside what is often the main driver of population dynamics, migration. Migration is, in that respect, only seen as a nuisance or perturbation in separating demographic processes (Henry, 1959). In contrast, the measures of mortality and replacement used in this presentation highlight the contribution of migration to (a) Population size by measuring presence, the number present in the population at a certain moment as a fraction of the cohort size at birth, (b) mortality and the number of deaths measured through death cohorts and reduced death densities, (c) population replacement measured through reduced birth densities and Birth Replacement Sums (BRS).

In open populations (see figure 1), there are new entrants and exits to the population meaning that populations observed through time, even while controlling for year of birth, are not composed of the same individuals. In fact, at local and subnational levels, people dying and having children in a population were very often born elsewhere, and people born in a population very often have children and die elsewhere. All this is absent from standard demographic measures of mortality and fertility that attempt to isolate phenomena. The measures we propose, on the contrary, exploit that interaction.

In the case of mortality, a basic concept is the death cohort: the number of people dying in a population sharing the same year of birth. Using National data from the Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database, table 1 shows the comparison of birth and death cohorts in Spain for the generation born in 1908 (with birth cohort size adjusted as described in the previous section). Consistent with the migration patterns of that cohort, the death cohort is somewhat smaller than the birth cohort, with a difference of 6% for males and 4% of females.

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 6 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 Table 1. Event-centered mortality and reproduction measures for the generation born in 1908, Spain Sum of Mean age Birth Absolute reduced at reduced Standard Cohort Size Events events events Indicator Mean age Birth Death Relative Death at Reduced Cohort life Indicator Cohort Cohort Cohort Size Death expectancy Deaths both sexes 670266 636623 0.95 47.3 47.5 Deaths males 344720 322793 0.94 44.2 44.7 Deaths females 325546 313830 0.96 50.4 50.3 Cohort Net Birth Mean age Reproduction Birth Total Replacement at Reduced Cohort Total Rate (Both Indicator cohort Children Sum Birth Fertility Rate sexes) Births to women 325546 628837 1.93 29.8 3.01 1.91 Note: Own elaboration based on data from Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database, and births reconstructed as described in the text. Reduced events (in a Lexis triangle) refer to events divided by birth cohort size. Sums up to age 101.

Regarding reproduction, the number of children born to women of a particular generation is made up of the contribution of non-migrant Native women and immigrant women. Table 1 shows the number of children born to women from the 1908 generation in Spain. The ratio of this number to the initial birth cohort size provides the cohort birth replacement sum (BRS), which in this case coincides with what would be the cohort birth replacement ratio (BRR). In contrast to a cohort TFR of 3.01, the National level BRS is 1.93. The main reason for the discrepancy is connected to female mortality, since there was not strong female migration for this cohort. It is also possible to obtain mean ages from the distribution of reduced events that are related to the mean age at birth and life expectancy.

A major advantage of Birth Replacement Sum over Ratios, is that they are defined at the event level. In this sense every vital event, birth, death, or presence recorded in a Census, makes some contribution to the phenomenon (e.g: a birth to replacement). We can define the reduced event by measuring such contribution compared to the cohort size at birth. Those contributions can then be mapped in a Lexis diagram as densities of reduced events, and integrated along cohort or period lines to derive summary measures such as the Birth Replacement Sum. Figure 6 displays the birth replacement surface for Spain as an aggregate. Cohort and Period birth replacement sums correspond to the sums along cohort and period lines. Cohort and period effects are clearly visible in the surface. Cohort

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 7 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 effects are basically connected to infant mortality: those cohorts experiencing high mortality in childhood see their number of members reduced. Period effects are mainly connected to events such as the 1936-1939.

Reduced birth and reduced death densities obtained by putting in relation births and deaths for a particular year and age to the initial birth cohort size provide age profiles. They can be interpreted as analogue to net maternity function and cohort life table deaths, but including the interaction with migration. Figure 7 shows the age profiles for the 1908 birth cohort together with standard age-specific fertility and (both sexes) net maternity functions, and cohort life-table deaths. The difference can be ascribed to migration. The effects of the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) are clearly visible on all of the curves. It is also possible to derive the average length of life from reduced-death densities. At the National level, the two curves are very similar, but they are considerably different at the provincial level given the importance of internal and international population movements in Spain throughout the period.

Interaction of demographic processes in the Spanish Provinces The Spanish provinces provide a particularly interesting set of populations to study the interaction of the three demographic phenomena since they are historically very heterogeneous in terms of fertility (Devolver, Nicolau and Panareda, 2006; Gil Alonso, 2010, 2011), mortality (Dopico and Reher, 1998; Blanes, 2007) and migration (Silvestre, 2002, 2005): total fertility in the 1920s was ranging from 2.5 to 5.6 (Gil Alonso, 1997), while life expectancy was ranging from 34 to 52 years for both sexes (Dopico and Reher, 1998) . Using Birth Replacement Ratios, a technique connected to Birth Replacement Sums but lacking an age-specific dimension, del Rey and Ortega (2011) have shown the large contribution of migration to replacement, with Spanish provinces in the 1970s ranging from 50 percent net immigration to 50 percent net migration factors in birth replacement. Del Rey, Cebrián and Ortega (2009) and Del Rey and Cebrián (2010) apply the BRR method to selected provinces for a longer time period since 1858. In this paper we study the contribution of population movements to three different demographic phenomena: presence, replacement and mortality, since 1858.

Cohort Presence in Spanish Censuses Presence corresponds to a particular event: being present in a population at a certain moment in time. It can be measured through Censuses and population counts. In our case, we observe presence at the 1877, 1887, 1900, 1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1960, 1970, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses (or displaced counts to December 31st in the last three cases).

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 8 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 Presence reconstruction is based on province counts by single year of age, sex and age since 1877. The 1950 census is skipped since it did not provide information for single years of age. Event-based measures of presence are based on comparing census presence to cohort size at birth (Reduced presence at age 0 is therefore equal to 1). They provide an implicit estimate of coverage/infant mortality for early ages. The closed population analogue is Lx , representing in an open population the joint contribution of mortality and migration to person-years lived. It has therefore the interpretation of being “as-if” person- years lived at age x were equal to reduced presence. The integral behind the curve represents an open-population dual of life-expectancy.

Cohort reduced presence in Spain is shown in figure 8 for selected cohorts. Again, very different patterns are observed in different provinces. Immigration provinces have reduced presence well over one over an extended age-range. In fact, levels over 2 are observed in some provinces at peak adult ages denoting that more than double the number born in that cohort are present in the population. The effects of the recent international immigration coming to the country after 1990 are also clearly visible in the upward bent of presence lines for more recent cohorts.

A closer look shows the relationship between the patterns found in the birth time series and presence. It is in those provinces where presence has been high due to the contribution of immigrants where the number of births has been rising.

Period aggregate presence over time is shown in figure 9. This indicators can be interpreted as an “as-if” life-expectancy, or total person-years lived, in the presence of migration. The overall rising trend is connected with rising life expectancy from very low levels in the 19th century, but the provincial differences are again drastic. Many provinces show aggregate presence levels over 100 years in recent periods, indicating that the population they have is similar to the one they would have had with such a high life expectancy in the absence of population movements. At the other side of the spectrum, even today there are provinces with aggregate presences around 60 person-years lived.

Birth Replacement

Measuring birth replacement requires data on births tabulated by the age of the mother. Such information exists in Spain since 1922, but provincial tables are not available for many province-years. Province level information is available for all provinces for the 1965- 1975 period. Only since 1975 data is available for single-years of age and the province corresponds to the province of residence, and not of occurrence. While we strive to reconstruct the complete dynamics since 1900 based on the information on children ever

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 9 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 born available since 1920 and the available information on births by age of the mother, we introduce here only the results for the period since 1975. Figure 10 shows the densities of reduced births by age for the different years in the complete period 1975- 2011. While there are large interprovincial differences, there exists a very common pattern in which two peaks of birth replacement densities are observed, an earlier one corresponding to the earlier period when fertility was still relatively high and early, and a new one at a later age for the recent years. This is similar to the pattern we observed in the birth replacement surface for Spain as a whole. The period of fast birth postponement is almost not visible since fertility rates were very low, partly due to tempo effects, and because presence was relatively low since the impact of international immigration had not felt itself. The difference between the earlier and the later period depends on the relative importance and sign of migration streams in the earlier and the later period. The provinces receiving large migration streams reached very high peak levels of birth replacement density, at 400 per thousand.

Period Birth Replacement Sums are obtained by adding up the birth replacement densities. The pattern observed in figure 11 is very similar to the one based on birth replacement ratios for the period 1975-2005 in Del Rey and Ortega (2011) with the new feature of a post-2008 decline in some provinces, that breaks a trend of fast increase. This is observed in provinces such as Alicante, Almeria or Sevilla, and also in the provinces currently with the highest birth replacement levels, above or close to 3 children per woman, like Guadalajara, Girona or Tarragona. The biggest metropolitan provinces, Madrid and Barcelona, share the feature of extremely high BRS in the 1970s, over 5, with a decline below replacement levels, to go back to levels around 2 children per woman in the 2000s. This can be interpreted that the new international immigration has been high enough to keep births at the peak levels reached in the 1970s when internal rural-urban migration was at its peak. This is not the case in some other traditionally receiving provinces like Bizkaia.

We have argued before that in order to understand birth replacement in Spain, the role of migration is often more relevant than fertility. This is shown in figure 12, where parallel maps for the Birth Replacement Sum in 1975 and aggregate presence in 1970 are provided. The pattern is observed is almost coincident. The reason is that migration is the main driver of both presence and natality. In fact, there is a close relationship between presence, fertility and birth replacement. For a Lexis point defined by age and time (x,t), there is the following relationship:

( , ) ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) = = = ( , ) ( , ) ( ) P ( , ) ( ) 퐵 푥 푡 퐵 푥 푡 푃 푥 푡 푅퐵 푥 푡 ∙ 퐹 푥 푡 ∙ 푅푃푟푒푠 푥 푡 퐵 푡 − 푥 푥 푡 퐵 푡 − 푥

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 10 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 So that reduced births are the product of fertility rates and presence. That their patterns resemble more those of presence than those of fertility show that migration is a more important determinant of replacement than fertility in this particular application.

Reduced Deaths

Reduced deaths are obtained by dividing the number of deaths by age by the corresponding cohort size at birth. They are an event-centered dual of lifetable deaths, to which they would be equal in a closed stable population. In the case of Spain, deaths by age are available for some periods in the 19th century, for age-groups in the period 1900- 1907, and by single years of age since 1908. As with the number of births, a break in the concept occurs in 1975, when they start to be tabulated by province of residence instead of province of registration.

The sum of reduced-deaths over age at the cohort-level provides an indicator of the effect of migration on the number of deaths. For this reason we have called this indicator relative death cohort size or, in short, death cohort (Ortega, 2012). At the period-level, there is also an effect connected to mortality change over time: to the extent that mortality is going down, the number of deaths is lower that would be expected since parts of the different cohorts died in earlier years when mortality was higher. For this reason, period relative death cohort size is generally smaller than one.

Reduced death densities for 1975 are shown in figure 13 for males and females. We observe a profile similar to the profile of lifetable deaths, with women deaths happening at an older age for advanced ages. Contrary to lifetable deaths, there are difference in the levels observed since the number of deaths does not add-up to one. In fact, figure 14 maps period relative death cohort size for 1975. In receiving regions like Barcelona and Madrid, levels can be over 1, in sending regions levels can go to extremely low values close to 0.2, even lower for females since rural to urban migration was more intense for females in the 1960s and 1970s. Despite differences in levels, the profile of reduced deaths by age can be used for a first assessment of differences in mortality levels.

Conclusion In this paper we have carried out a reconstruction of the number of births for all the Spanish provinces in the period 1858-2011. This is the first prerequisite to the estimation of event-centered measures that look at the interaction of demographic processes, including the effect of migration on measures of replacement, presence or reduced

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 11 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 deaths. The Spanish vital registration system cover almost the complete period with only a small gap in 1871-1876 that has been filled up based on information on presence in the 1887 census. Some deficiencies, like incomplete coverage of female births at the beginning of the 20th century, or the treatment of deaths before 24 hours or the inscription of birth have also been addressed.

Once the homogenous series of births is available, it is possible to compute densities of reduced events for the phenomenon of interest. We have provided three such applications. The study of presence provides a fast way to assess migration trends based on population figures. Receiving provinces can have at some point extremely high levels of presence, with the population present being more than double the population born in the province. This happened in Madrid for some of the peak migrating cohorts in the rural-to- urban migration process, and is happening now in some of the new population receivers like Girona and Guadalajara. The study of birth replacement shows that despite relatively low fertility levels, birth replacement can be very high, over 3 or even 4 children per woman when immigration is very high. The reverse process is also true, with sending provinces have extremely low levels of birth replacement below 1 child per woman due to migration. The relationship between the maps for presence and the maps for birth replacement shows that migration is the key determinant of differences in birth replacement, rather than fertility levels. Death cohorts provide a glimpse at the interaction between observed deaths, migration and mortality. Reduced deaths show an age-profile very similar to lifetable deaths, but without the property of adding up to one. Differences in period death cohort size can be ascribed mainly to migration.

These are only some illustrative application of event-centered methods that highlight the interaction of demographic processes in the Spanish provinces. As more series of vital events become available and homogenized, we can study the geographical variation of demographic behavior at a level of disaggregation that is able to capture the important contribution of net migration that is usually left out from traditional demographic analysis.

Acknowledgments This research has been partly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy under project CSO2012-31206, Dynamic Interaction between mortality and fertility in the initial stages of the demographic transition.

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Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 12 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 Calot, G and Sardon, J-P. (2001) “Fécondité, reproduction et remplacement”. Population, 56(3): 337–396.

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Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 13 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 Ortega, J. A. (2013) Event-Centered Demographic Methods: Theory and Examples. Presented at the XXVII IUSSP International Population Conference, Busan, Republic of Korea, 26-31 August 2013.

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Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 14 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013

Figure 1

Figure 2

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 15 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013

Figure 3

Figure 4

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Figure 5. The open-population model

55

50 rbirths 45 40 0.075

Age 35 0.050 30

25 0.025 20

15

192119261931193619411946195119561961196619711976198119861991199620012006 Year

Figure 6. Birth Replacement Surface, Spain. Density of reduced births for Lexis triangles.

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 17 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 Survival and Reproduction: Spanish Cohort born 1908

Cohort Reduced Death Densities and Life Table Deaths, Spanish Cohort born 1908

log(RDFemale) log(LTDFemale) log(RDMale) log(LTDMale)

1928 1948 1968 1988 1928 1948 1968 1988

-2 -2

-3

-4 -4 log(RDFemale) + log(LTDFema log(RDFemale) + log(LTDMale)log(RDMale) +

-5 -6

-6

-8 -7

20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80 Age Age

Cohort Reduced Births, Age-Specific Fertility Rates and Net Maternity, Both sexes

RBFemale ASFR NetMat

1928 1938 1948 1958

0.20

0.15

RBFemale ASFR + NetMat + 0.10

0.05

0.00

20 30 40 50 Age

Figure 7: Cohort Reduced Event Densities compared to life table deaths, ASFR and net maternity (both sexes) estimated from HMD and HFD data and birth reconstruction in this paper. Spanish cohort born in 1908.

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 18 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013

Figure 8

Figure 9

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 19 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013

Figure 10

Figure 11

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 20 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013 Figure 12

Figure 13

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 21 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013

Figure 14

Ortega and Sánchez-Barricarte 22 XXVII IUSSP IPC Conference, Busan 2013