DEGREE PROJECT IN TECHNOLOGY, FIRST CYCLE, 15 CREDITS STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2020
A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
GUSTAV SKOOG
KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
Gustav Skoog AL130X Bachelor Thesis 2020:06
Table of Contents Abstract ...... 3 Summary ...... 4 Acknowledgements ...... 5 1. Introduction ...... 6 1.1 Climate Change and the United Nations ...... 6 1.2 Brief History of Sweden’s Climate Work ...... 7 1.3 Goal and Scope ...... 7 2. Method ...... 9 2.1 Literature ...... 9 2.2 Interviews ...... 9 Figure 1: Map of the municipalities locations ...... 10 Figure 2: Municipality Interview Questions ...... 11 Figure 3: SMHI Interview Questions ...... 11 Figure 4: DHI Interview Questions ...... 12 3. Literature Details ...... 13 3.1 Main Threats and Challenges for Sweden ...... 13 Figure 5: Number of municipalities per risk category: flooding from oceans ...... 14 Figure 6: Total effect of sea level rise and land-uplift ...... 14 Figure 7: Number of municipalities per risk category: land and mudslides ...... 15 Figure 8: National landslide risk overview of fine-grained soils ...... 15 Administrative challenges ...... 16 3.2 Initiatives and Strategies ...... 17 3.2.1 National Initiatives ...... 17 Figure 9: Sweden's Political Parties Climate Promises ...... 17 The Climate Policy Framework ...... 17 Environmental Quality Objectives ...... 18 The Climate Leap ...... 18 Green Industry Leap ...... 19 Other investments and initiatives ...... 19 3.2.2 Global Initiatives ...... 19 3.3 Sweden and Agenda 2030 ...... 19 Figure 10: Number of deaths and injuries from natural disasters 1967-2013 ...... 22 Figure 11: Sweden's greenhouse gas emissions and GDP development from 2008 to 2018 ...... 23 Figure 12: Production-based and consumption-based emissions 1993-2013 ...... 24 Figure 13: Production-based and consumption-based emission 2008-2017 ...... 24 4. Interview Details ...... 25 4.1 Interviews with Municipalities ...... 25 Sundsvall Municipality ...... 25 Haninge Municipality ...... 26 Helsingborg Municipality ...... 27 4.2 Interview with National Authority ...... 28 SMHI ...... 28 4.3 Interview with Private Consultancy ...... 28 DHI ...... 28
1 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
5. Discussion ...... 30 5.1 Climate Adaptation vs. Climate Mitigation ...... 30 5.2 Agenda 2030 and SDG 13 at the local level ...... 31 5.3 The SDG 13 targets ...... 31 5.4 Lack of indicators ...... 33 5.5 Possible Changes in Sweden ...... 33 5.6 Improvements to the Study and Further Research ...... 34 6. Conclusion ...... 36 7. Closing Remarks ...... 37 8. Appendix ...... 38 Appendix 1 ...... 38 Appendix 2 ...... 39 Appendix 3 ...... 39 Appendix 4 ...... 39 9. References ...... 41
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Abstract
Climate change and its impacts are currently affecting countries all around the world. Sweden is facing an increased risk of landslides, floods and a rising sea level that will cause major damage to infrastructure in the future. Sustainable Development Goal number 13 aims to mitigate these risks and others by strengthening different climate adaptation systems and reducing human impact on the environment. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate Sweden’s commitment to goal 13 and review the progress so far. In addition, it aimed to identify what national climate initiatives are in place and how integrated the goal is at the local level. Through official documents from the Swedish government and the United Nations, scientific research articles, and interviews with involved actors at the local level, a detailed overview of Sweden’s work on sustainable development goal 13 was produced. The research showed that Agenda 2030 and Sustainable Development Goal 13 are well integrated in the different levels of governance, and recent initiatives are leading Sweden in the right direction to reaching the different targets set by the goal. However, certain areas within Sweden’s climate work seem to still lack proper guidance and will require changes in the near future if more progress is to be made. Consumption-based emissions produced outside of Sweden’s borders remain high, a specific national climate scenario has not been elaborated and municipalities sometimes appear to lack the necessary resources and support to effectively plan for climate change. In addition, it became apparent that the sub targets for goal number 13 in some cases did not have clear indicators. This ultimately limited to what extent Sweden’s progress could be identified and measured with respect to these targets.
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Summary
The 2030 Agenda’s Sustainable Development Goals were adopted by the United Nations in 2015, outlining global targets the world needs to strive to meet in order to ensure a sustainable future. Among these 17 goals, number 13 specifically addresses climate impact. Its main purpose is to push for countries to take immediate action and work towards mitigating the consequences of climate change, including strengthening climate adaptation systems, integrating policies, improving education and capacity, and bolstering the Green Climate Fund. Meeting the targets set by this goal would mean significant progress in terms of climate sustainability for individual countries and ultimately the globe. However, failure to meet them can mean major damage to infrastructure and to the environment. In Sweden’s case, the outstanding consequences will be increased risk for landslides and rise of sea levels (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 44). How well Sweden is working towards SDG 13 is vital in deciding the eventual outcome and effect climate change will have on Sweden.
The purpose of this study is to review and investigate different sources to see how Sweden is working to meet Sustainable Development Goal number 13. Due to the many levels of governance and the municipal level having significant planning influence, how integrated SDG 13 and national environmental goals are on the local level is looked at. In addition, to what level priority between climate adaptation and climate mitigation varies in Sweden will be analyzed to further contribute to the review. A higher focus on one of them could indicate a lack of focus on the other, something that is important to note when conducting an analysis. Furthermore, Sweden’s progress and potential changes to policy and planning that could prove to be necessary is also discussed, with the goal to see if enough is being done in Sweden to reach Sustainable Development Goal 13.
In order to best cover the many perspectives and collect the most relevant information in the given time frame of the study, focus is put on a number of interviews and literary sources. The interviews were held with environmental strategists from three different municipalities: Sundsvall, Haninge and Helsingborg. In addition to an interview each with the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, and a private consultancy called DHI. To complement the interviews, multiple official documents from the Swedish government and the United Nations, together with scientific research articles, are used.
The research and the interviews show that Sweden is progressing generally well in terms of reaching Sustainable Development Goal 13. Large efforts have been made with recent initiatives to better address climate change now and in the future. Integration of Agenda 2030 overall seems quite complete, in addition to strong knowledge building both nationally and globally, with Sweden contributing significant amounts to the Green Climate Fund. However, the interviews presented that much work still remains in Sweden before any significant milestones can be reached. In addition, the lack of measurable indicators for SDG 13 makes reviewing progress difficult.
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Acknowledgements
I would like to send a special thank you to my supervisor for this project, Luigia Brandimarte. She has been readily available to provide important feedback and answer any questions that I might have had and has been an invaluable help in guiding me along the way to make this study the best it could be. Also, I would like to say big thank you to the interview participants, Sofie Eriksson, Petronella Troselius, Elin Sundqvist, Lena Lindström and Marinette Hagman, who all took time out of their schedule to be a part of the project and who provided their valued opinions and responses.
5 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
1. Introduction
1.1 Climate Change and the United Nations
The United Nations has in many ways carried the torch in unifying the world’s climate efforts to create a collected movement of countries striving to reach a common goal. In 1949, the depletion of the worlds natural resources was addressed by the UN Scientific Conference on the conservation and utilization of resources, but it was not until 1968 that the strain put on the environment was fully recognized by the UN. In 1972 the First Earth Summit was held in Stockholm, where principles and action plans were presented in order to preserve the environment. Climate change and the potential consequences was first mentioned, recommending governments around the world to be cautious of the amount of pollutants released into the atmosphere. This topic continued to gain recognition in the years following with new councils established such as the United Nations Environment Program and the Environment Fund. The adoption of the 1985 Vienna Convention implemented protocols to protect the ozone layer, with increasing evidence of climate change arising from acid rains across Europe and North America.
The connection between development and a degrading environment, and the concept of sustainable development was brought forward in 1987 with the Environmental Perspective to the Year 2000 & Beyond. This agenda pushed for international cooperation and national action to start integrating an environmental perspective in development. A year later the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed, tasked with examining greenhouse gases and climate change. 1989 marked the year where global efforts reached a new milestone (Jackson, n.d.). The Helsinki Declaration and Montreal Protocols set in place new guidelines for the protection of the ozone layer. As climate change gained momentum on the global stage, the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 brought forward the Rio Declaration and Agenda 21 who’s aim was to set international agreements on the topic of protecting the environment. From the Earth Summit also emerged the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which by 1992 had signatures from 158 countries. With the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 becoming ratified to the UNFCCC, the world had once again reached a significant milestone in the road towards global sustainability (Jackson, n.d.).
In the following years additional protocols and accords were ratified. Among these was the Copenhagen Accords in 2009, that set a goal to limit global temperature increase by 2 degrees Celsius and established the Green Climate Fund. In 2015 the Paris agreement was adopted. It established a new method for action and cooperation, setting up global binding agreements that would be met through nonbinding Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC’s). With NDC’s, reviewed every 5 years, each country’s plan of action could be more easily tracked and monitored (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, n.d.). 2015 also saw the UN Summit on Sustainable Development put forth the 2030 Agenda, including its goals for sustainable development. These 17 goals were agreed by the UN as targets that the world together should strive to meet in order to improve the living conditions of humans and the surrounding natural environment. The Paris agreement was followed up by the most recent Madrid Climate Change conference in 2019, with the goal of finalizing all the articles discussed in the 2015 talks (Evans & Gabbatiss, 2019).
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Sustainable development goal number 13 is mainly about setting goals in order to reduce the global carbon emissions and take immediate action to mitigate the consequences of climate change. This means implementing climate adaptation systems to strengthen the resilience against the rising number of natural disasters caused by global warming, integrating more climate policies at all levels of planning and governance, and improving education and institutional capacity on all matters concerning climate change. Furthermore, the goal also aims to strengthen the Green Climate Fund, the UNFCCC’s financial mechanism that helps fund climate financing investments (The Swedish UN Association, 2018). The full list of targets and indicators for Sustainable Development Goal number 13 can be found in appendix 1.
1.2 Brief History of Sweden’s Climate Work
Sweden has for a long time been recognized as a forerunner in promoting sustainability and working against climate change, and rightfully so. As early as 1967, Sweden established an environmental protection agency becoming the first country to do so. In addition to hosting the first previously mentioned Earth Summit in 1972, Sweden was a strong initiator of the Stockholm Convention held in 2001 (Sweden, 2020). This international agreement aimed to limit the emission of persistent organic pollutants (POP’s), a type of harmful chemicals that are resistant to natural degradation and that are easily distributed to regions far from their origin source (Secretariat of the Stockholm Convention, 2019).
This claim of taking a proactive role is backed up by Sweden maintaining a high position in different global sustainability and climate change rankings. The more noteworthy include the most recent 2020 Climate Change Performance Index with Sweden once again holding the top spot at number 4 (The top 3 positions are left empty since no countries reach a high enough performance) (CCPI, 2020), the 2018 Environmental Performance Index where Sweden received rank number 5 (Coleman, 2018) and the 2019 Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index measuring resource management, governance efficiency, and natural, social and intellectual capital, with Sweden ranking number 1 (SolAbility, 2019).
1.3 Goal and Scope
This study will hope to answer the following questions: How does planning for climate change look on the different levels of governance? What kind of climate related threats is Sweden facing? Does the priority between planning for climate adaptation and climate mitigation vary? How well has Agenda 2030 and SDG 13 been integrated at the local level? How is Sweden progressing in terms of the SDG 13 targets? What needs to change in Sweden? By answering these questions, this study will aim to contribute as a review to determine if Sweden is on the right path to reaching the goals. If the proper strategies are in place or if even more ambitious plans are required. In other words, is enough being done?
While much can be said about Sweden’s prominent climate change and sustainability work through these rankings, more has to be known and more precise questions have to be asked before any decisive conclusions can be reached. Sweden has quite clearly implemented effective policies and followed through on important strategies to get to this point, but what does this look like when you start to pick it apart?
7 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
In order to limit the scope of the study, UN Sustainable Development Goal number 13 has been chosen as a waypoint to continuously have something specific to reference to. While sustainability as a broader term involving an economic, social and ecological perspective is a useful indicator to look at, this study will focus more on the environmental aspect that is referred to in SDG 13 and section 1.1. The reason for this is that it allows for a more detailed approach considering the resources and time allocated for this study.
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2. Method
The initial research consisted of covering the topic in general to get a better overview of the question and what it entails. This was quite broad research, involving mostly official UN documents about the Sustainable Development Goals, the different targets, how they are set up, and what is generally required of countries. Later, the objective was to investigate the main threats to a sustainable development in Sweden. The study required finding what the biggest consequence of inaction would be, and what climate strategies were in place. More specifically what Sweden’s main focus would be in relation to climate change and SDG 13. The literature consisted of a mix of official documents published by the Swedish government discussing different adaptation strategies and national climate initiatives. Parallel to this, relevant institutions were identified to later contact for interviews.
2.1 Literature
Despite limiting the scope of the study, in order to fully grasp and be able to reach a legitimate conclusion a wide range of perspectives and sources were used. Most of the research used to establish the more underlying information mainly came from official documents from the Swedish government and the United Nations, and from different scientific research articles. Some prominent literature included the 2018 National Strategy for Climate Adaptation, articles by the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and the Environment, a report by Statistics Sweden and a report from the Swedish Delegation for the 2030 Agenda. This information, amongst others, created a premise on which the interviews were later based on, that involved interviewing three municipalities, one private consultancy, and one national authority.
2.2 Interviews
Due to unique circumstances caused by the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak during the writing of this study, the interviews were carried out through phone calls or video meetings. The interview responses were summarized to highlight the most important and relevant parts and are shown in section 4. When formulating the interview questions, the previously discussed literature was used as a starting point in order to find what information the interviews were most suited to provide. In addition, a book by Robyn Longhurst et al. called Key Methods in Geography was referred to (2010, p. 116-122). Here, different methods for preparing semi-structured interviews were presented and were used as supporting guidelines in constructing the interview questions. The interview questions can be found in figure 2, 3 and 4 shown below.
The different municipalities were chosen to provide a wider range of perspectives. Haninge was chosen because of the large area of coastal land inside their county limits. This land will almost certainly pose a risk for future development that will need to be dealt with as sea levels rise, and coastal erosion becomes more imminent. Sundsvall was chosen because of its geographical position more to the north than Haninge, meaning different circumstances and climate priorities. Helsingborg was chosen since it was ranked number 1 in a 2019 sustainability poll carried out by Aktuell Hållbarhet, a news outlet focusing on environmental work and sustainability in Sweden. Furthermore, due to the different rankings between Helsingborg, Haninge (38th) and Sundsvall (45th), this allowed for the study to investigate
9 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13 municipalities with more unique circumstances and therefor more distinct perspectives (Aktuell Hållbarhet, 2019). The different locations of the municipalities can be seen in figure 1.
Figure 1: Map of the municipalities locations
Source: Google, 2020
Municipality name labels added separately by author
The private company interviewed was DHI, a consultancy specializing in water related solutions ranging from quality improvement to climate adaptation. The reason why DHI was chosen as an interview candidate was due to the Swedish Ocean and Water authority using DHI as a key research contributor in their 2018 climate adaptation report (Swedish Ocean and Water Authority, 2018).
The interviewed national agency was the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). SMHI is Sweden’s main environmental expert agency covering nearly all aspects of environmental policy, including climatology and oceanography. In addition, they are also Sweden’s contact point for the IPCC, meaning a central responsibility in conducting research and distributing information for Swedish municipalities and citizens.
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Figure 2: Municipality Interview Questions
How is your municipality addressing Sustainable Development Goal 13?
How integrated is Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals in the planning?
Are there different priorities between climate adaptation and climate mitigation?
SMHI provides much of the information regarding different climate change projections and estimates. How important is this information for your municipality?
How much freedom do municipalities have in planning for climate change? What pressure is there from the government?
How is the communication between the government, the region and the municipalities on the question of UN development goals and planning for climate change?
Do you think that instead of guidelines and recommendations there should be stricter rules on planning for climate change that municipalities need to follow?
How prepared is Sweden for climate change?
Figure 3: SMHI Interview Questions
Would you say there is a big difference in attitude as a national agency compared to a private consultancy?
How is the communication between the government, the region and the municipalities on the question of UN development goals and planning for climate change?
What RCP’s do you recommend municipalities to go by and plan after?
Is there a planning aspect that should get more focus? Choosing between improving climate adaptation or reducing climate impact.
Much responsibility has been placed upon SMHI to provide reliable information to not only citizens but also municipalities about climate change and its impacts. How well do you think this will work going forward with climate change impacts becoming more serious across the country?
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Figure 4: DHI Interview Questions
As a private company, how integrated are national, EU and global goals in your business and operations?
Who does your clientele usually consist of?
What are the biggest challenges when working with sea level rise and climate adaptation?
At what level is the general awareness and knowledge of climate related disasters in your experience with different clients?
How well equipped would you say Sweden is when it comes to withstanding climate change related water disasters such as flooding and sea level rise?
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3. Literature Details
3.1 Main Threats and Challenges for Sweden
Climate change in Sweden In order to start to break down and analyze how Sweden is handling SDG 13 one must first look at why Sweden must handle it. What immediate consequences will arise if no action is taken? And even if appropriate strategies are implemented what threats should they be aiming to mitigate? Climate change is well recognized as a global issue and has been for quite some time now. One nations Co2 emissions for example will not only impact their own well-being and climate but will contribute to a wider accumulation of emissions that impact the whole world. With climate change leaving nearly no corner of the globe unaffected, different pre- conditions such as local fauna, post-glacial movements and infrastructure amongst many can heavily decide the scale of these consequences in that specific region.
Equally important is simply the geographical location. Studies have shown that the northern hemisphere is heating up faster than the southern. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, one cause is the global ocean currents transporting heat away from the southern hemisphere into the North Pacific and Atlantic, heating up coastal areas. Another factor causing this disproportion was researched by U.C. Berkley and the University of Washington. Since oceans warm slower than land, the higher percentage of land mass compared to ocean covering the northern hemisphere also contributes to a faster heating (Freedman, 2013). Geographically Sweden is located quite far north, so what does this north vs south disparity mean for them? Much of this was discussed in a government proposition published in 2018 presenting a national strategy for climate adaptation. Climate scenarios showed that temperatures in Scandinavia could increase more compared to the global average. This seems to be in line with the previously considered finding that the northern hemisphere is heating up faster than the south.
Furthermore, two threats stood out as more imminent than the rest. Projections in the report showed that in the period 2041-2070 rainfall in Sweden could increase by 20% (2017, p. 24), with other sources claiming this number could reach 30% between 2070-2100 (Andersson- Sköld et al, 2013, p. 45). Despite rainfall projections being hard to predict accurately in the long term, it does seem highly probable that rainfall episodes in some areas could become more extreme without occurring more regularly. Many rivers and lakes today, such as Göta Älv and Vänern, already pose threats in terms of flooding and will become increasingly difficult to maintain due mostly to geotechnical challenges (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 26).
While each municipality’s susceptibility to damage from flooding depends on the city structure such as density and technical infrastructure, the projections show that all municipalities across Sweden will face an increased risk of rainfall in the future. However, only 2% of municipalities fall into risk category 3* and 5% in category 2 due to flooding from lakes and rivers (2018, p. 26). So, while still a threat, a more serious problem seems to lie in the rising of sea levels. Here 15% of municipalities fall within risk category 3 and 8% in category 2 (figure 5). Due to a much lower post-glacial land uplift in the southern part of Sweden, the southernmost located
*Risk category 2 and 3 mean that new climate adaptation actions will need to be taken in order to reduce damage, with category 3 defined as more severe.
13 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13 regions could face a sea level rise of up to 1 meter by the year 2100 (2017, p. 27). In a report by the Ocean and Water Authority on climate adaptation conducted in 2018, the topic of flooding and rainfall was further expanded upon and investigated. According to the report, instead of new areas becoming potentially threatened by floods caused by increased sea levels, existing ones would become increasingly potent with more regular floods and higher regular water levels (2018, p. 25).
Figure 5: Number of municipalities per risk category: flooding from oceans
Source: The Climate Adaptation report SOU 2017:42, cited in National Strategy for Climate Adaptation 2017:163
Figure 6: Total effect of sea level rise and land-uplift Calculated on the basis of a 1-meter global sea level rise over a 100-year period
Source: IPCC Future sea levels AR5 WG 2 2014, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, SMHI
In this same report it stated that due to more aggressive water flows as a result of increased rainfall, this could lead to a higher risk of landslides and erosions occurring in already sensitive areas (Swedish Ocean and Water Authority, 2018, p. 24). Going back to the National Strategy for Climate Adaptation from 2018 referenced earlier, landslides was considered to be a priority alongside flooding. With figure 7 showing that 13% of municipalities fall under risk category
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4, 8% in category 3, and 7% in 2, meaning more areas are in a higher risk category for landslides than for flooding (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 30). However, these two are connected to each other. As mentioned earlier, the risk for landslides will only increase as rainfall patterns change and sea levels rise. In contrast to the threat of flooding predicted to be higher in the southern regions, landslides are believed to hit the southwestern municipalities the hardest, with risks projected to increase by 25% by the year 2100 if no action is taken (2017, p. 29).
Figure 7: Number of municipalities per risk category: land and mudslides
Source: The Climate Adaptation report SOU 2017:42, cited in National Strategy for Climate Adaptation 2017:163
Figure 8: National landslide risk overview of fine-grained soils
Translated legend: - Significant risk for landslides - Palpable risk for landslides - Moderate risk - Small risk - No fine-grained soils or insignificant spread - No evaluation made
Source: SGU (Swedish Geological Investigation) 2016
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To summarize, the report concluded that flooding and landslides would be the most likely to cause severe damage to society. More specifically, this would mean high economic and social costs for the protection and maintaining of infrastructure. Ecosystems, buildings and citizens were deemed to be at increased risk because of these consequences. To directly quote from the report†:
“A collective conclusion is that landslides and flooding affect more sectors and areas in Sweden and will therefore result in severe consequences to society… Reasons for the governments evaluation: risks connected to landslides, mudslides, flooding and erosion can potentially mean major consequences to human lives and health, to ecosystems and infrastructure, buildings and cultural locations.” (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 44)
Administrative challenges After researching the more physical climate threats that Sweden is facing that were mentioned above, a different type of challenge was brought to light. This was the administrative part and difficulty that comes with planning around such long-term threats. As mentioned in a 2017 article by Markus Eriksson et al. about the risks and effects of sea level rise in the Baltic:
“Many municipalities in Sweden do not have a strategy for a future sea level rise beyond the year 2100, as the projections of the pace and extent of a future sea level rise are uncertain, thus complicating decision-making.” (M. Eriksson et al, 2017, p. 2)
Furthermore, the amount of available resources and reliance on other bodies such as consultancies and agencies to provide information to municipalities was a topic that was brought up in an article by Annika Carlsson Kanyama, a senior researcher at KTH. In this article she discussed amongst other things how two municipalities, Nacka and Haninge, had to rely on regional authorities and consultants for estimates on sea-level rise, and did not have the necessary resources to conduct these evaluations (Kanyama et. al, 2017, p. 7). Now, while there is of course nothing wrong or unusual about having to consult with specialized agencies about complex estimates such as sea-level rise, it does raise the question on how well-equipped Swedish municipalities are to deal with these challenges?
This overall topic was also discussed in the 2018 National Strategy for Climate Adaptation referenced earlier, where certain shortcomings to Sweden’s strategy were brought up. The European Commission and SMHI stated back in 2015 in their evaluation reports that a national governance of the climate adaptation work was missing. This included clear mandates not given to relevant authorities, a lack of cooperation between different sectors, and no appropriate follow-ups to evaluate the climate adaptation work. In general, they argued that the lack of clear responsibilities and economic support was holding back work at the local level (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 75).
† All quotes from Swedish literature were translated by the author of the study
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3.2 Initiatives and Strategies
3.2.1 National Initiatives After having looked at the main challenges and threats that Sweden is currently facing, the question becomes what strategies are in place to combat these? In recent years some the most significant initiatives have been taken, including the greatest ever climate and environment investments (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, 2017). The 2018 budget bill saw a doubled increase from the previous one in 2014 (Sweden, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2017). These climate initiatives seem to originate from the fact that the Swedish general opinion both from citizens and political parties is that climate work is an important focus. A 2019 investigative poll by the opinion feed institute Novus, showed that environment and climate as a political question increased the most, from 33% in February of 2019, to 45% landing behind healthcare (63%), immigration (53%), education (52%) and safety (50%) (von Heijne, 2019). Additionally, an investigation by the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SSNC) right before the 2018 elections, showed that the majority of political parties have relatively strong climate ambitions. Figure 9 shows how out of 18 different climate policies and strategies, 7 out of 8 parties stated that they were behind at least 10 of the suggested policies (Swedish Society for Nature Conservation, 2018).
Figure 9: Sweden's Political Parties Climate Promises Answer Yes (green), unsure (grey), no (red)
Source: Swedish Society for Nature Conservation, 2018
The Climate Policy Framework According to the Swedish Ministry of Environment, the Climate Policy Framework is “the most important climate reform in Sweden’s history”. The goal of the framework is to create a clearer pathway for Swedish society and businesses to follow to be able solve the climate change problem, with long-term goals reaching beyond 2020. The framework is built upon 3 foundations: a climate act, a set of climate goals, and a climate policy council. The first one, the climate act, sets obligations for the government. It states that each electoral government must now establish and follow up on a climate policy every 4 years in order to work towards the climate goals set by the parliament. The follow-up must be made every year in the government’s budget bill (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, 2017).
The climate goals consist mainly of an overarching goal that aims to make Sweden’s net emissions zero by 2045, and negative thereafter. The goal includes emissions abroad that
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Sweden helps reduce through climate investments and indicates that emissions on Swedish territory will be 85% less than in 1990. In addition, by 2030, emissions from transport (not including domestic aviation since already covered in European Union Emissions Trading System) will be 70% lower than in 2010. The third foundation is the Climate Policy Council, whose main objective is to assess the climate policy set by the government and whether or not it complies with the climate goals (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, 2017)
Environmental Quality Objectives One of the major ways that Sweden is in fact working with the Sustainable Development Goals is through the creation of the environmental quality objectives. Established in 1999, these 16 goals are meant to act as long-term targets and guidelines on how to protect and maintain the environment at all levels of society. These goals cover a very wide range of environmental challenges, from limiting climate impact to only allowing natural acidification in lakes and rivers. The full list of climate goals can be found in appendix 2 (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2019). In order to facilitate and create a clearer roadmap on how to reach the goals, certain sub-goals exist. These include waste management, limited climate impact, biological diversity, hazardous chemical management, sustainable urban planning and reduced air pollution (Sweden’s Environmental Goals, 2019). All 16 main goals and sub-goals have a single Generational Goal, acting as an overarching direction for all environmental work. The generational goal is defined by the parliament as:
“The overall goal for the environmental policy’s is to hand over to the next generation a society where the major environmental issues have been solved, without causing further climate or health problems outside of Sweden’s borders.” (Sweden’s Environmental Goals, 2020a)
The environmental goals are extensively followed up every 4 years, with more general evaluations made every year. In the extensive follow-up, a more detailed review is made to see if the instruments and policies in place are adequate to be able to reach the different goals, with existing conflicts and opportunities highlighted to see what needs changing. Each goal has a specific national authority assigned to it with the task of conducting this evaluation (Sweden’s Environmental Goals, 2020b).
The Climate Leap The Climate Leap is another major investment made by the Swedish government. This one aims to help finance local and regional climate initiatives all over the country. The most recent numbers indicate that 3200 projects have already been funded which has been estimated to mean a reduction in emissions by around 1.45 million tones carbon dioxide per year (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry of Infrastructure, 2019). The total budget for the Climate Leap initiative has been increasing year after year and has also included co-financing in certain projects by the private sector, municipalities and county councils. The total investment capability planned between 2015-2020 was around 7-9 billion SEK, with further increases proposed in 2019 bringing to total for 2020 to around 2 billion SEK (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, 2016) (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry of Infrastructure, 2019).
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Green Industry Leap Similar to the Climate Leap in principle, the Industry Leap is meant to facilitate the move towards zero net emissions in the industrial sector. These investments are aimed at technological advancements to reduce emissions and help industries move towards more renewable and sustainable methods. Like the Climate Leap, the total budget for the industry leap has been increased from 300 million SEK every year to 600 million SEK for 2020 (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry of Infrastructure, 2019).
Other investments and initiatives Among the ones mentioned above, other initiatives include: a 5.9 billion SEK investment between 2019-2020 in the railway system to facilitate journeys by train, a new energy policy with investments in renewable energy and with the goal of an energy sector consisting of 100% renewable energy by 2030, a new strategy for more sustainable consumption and a cooperation initiative between companies, municipalities and organizations for a fossil-free Sweden (Sweden, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2017) (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, 2016).
3.2.2 Global Initiatives In addition to committing domestically to reach these goals, Sweden has made significant contributions globally to support both less developed countries and the UN. In 2015, Sweden donated 4 billion SEK to the UN Green Climate Fund, doubling this amount in 2019, joining the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan as the top global contributors. The Green Climate Fund is dedicated to help developing countries reduce their emissions and fight climate change through financial support from global contributors (Green Climate Fund, 2019). In addition to this, a new 5-year government strategy for global development cooperation was established in 2018 with 3 main focus areas: environmental sustainability, sustainable climate and ocean, and sustainable use of natural resources. This strategy is supposed to act as a guideline for the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), and similar to the Green Climate Fund (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2018):
“…create better opportunities for better living conditions for people living in poverty and under oppression, and to contribute to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and the Paris agreement.”
The strategy draws from a number of the Sustainable Development Goals presented in Agenda 2030, among these is goal number 13, climate action. The other goals can be found in appendix 3. With a total budget of 6.5 billion SEK, this in addition to the contributions made towards the UN Green Climate fund, totals up Sweden’s global efforts to a significant amount (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2018).
3.3 Sweden and Agenda 2030
Now that a clearer picture of what Sweden is doing domestically in terms of environmental and climate work has been presented, how does this look in relation to Agenda 2030? What have evaluations said about Sweden’s progress, and where on the path to achieving the goals is Sweden? In a report outlining the environmental quality objectives it is clear that Sweden is
19 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13 committing themselves to a big role in leading the work towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2016). This ambition is further seen in an official action plan for Agenda 2030 published by the Ministry of Finance in 2018:
“Sweden is to be a leading nation in the implementation of Agenda 2030, both domestically and globally. The implementation means a successive readjustment of Sweden as a modern welfare state. Sweden is to be transformed into the world’s first fossil free welfare country. Sweden is to be an international role model when it comes to economic, social and environmental sustainability, with a concurrent policy that takes into account the perspective of poverty-stricken people and human rights.” (Ministry of Finance, 2018, p. 3)
More on how Sweden is doing in terms of Agenda 2030 was shown in a 2019 assessment by the Swedish Delegation for the 2030 Agenda, where the delegation presented its proposals and evaluation of Sweden’s work. Early in the report it states that many of the already implemented policies by the government and parliament go beyond the targets of the 2030 Agenda, meaning that if the national policies are carried out fully then the SDG’s will for the most part be accomplished in Sweden. However, it was highlighted that since the more ambitious national goals have not yet been reached, much work still remains to reach the Agenda goals (2019, p. 2).
Many different proposals were presented in the report, with the majority and most noteworthy ones referring to changes at the top level of governance. The delegation expressed that the government should propose a bill making the targets in the 2030 Agenda into national objectives, meaning that
“…this will create conditions which promote long-term commitment and the strongest possible political support for the Agenda 2030.” (Swedish Delegation for the 2030 Agenda, 2019, p. 3)
Further, it was proposed that a committee be tasked with following up on the bill and suggesting potential policy changes in order to better work towards the goals.
In a report submitted to the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development in 2017, outlining Sweden’s progress with the 2030 Agenda, the integration of the Agenda in national authorities’ operations was discussed. Approximately 90 government authorities were then actively working with incorporating the Agenda 2030 and stated that “a cross-sectoral perspective” needs to be implemented to better achieve the goals since much of the work done by one authority tended to affect the other (Sweden, Ministry of Finance; Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Report to HLPF, 2017, p. 49). The report continued to commend them on having highly appropriate knowledge platforms and instruments required for implementing the Agenda. However, the government authorities highlighted that a more “clear vision” regarding the Agenda was necessary together with assessments of the progress, national objectives and a follow-up system (2017, p. 50).
Much of this was discussed by the Swedish Delegation for the 2030 Agenda who also stressed the importance of including authorities on the local level. Municipalities and county councils have a lot of influence over planning in Sweden, with municipalities having a so-called planning monopoly. This means that, with the exception of some supervision and reviewing
20 Gustav Skoog AL130X Bachelor Thesis 2020:06 from appointed national authorities, municipalities have nearly full planning control over their county borders. Because of this, the delegation emphasizes how important it is that the Agenda 2030 and sustainable development in general receives the appropriate attention on a local, municipal level. The National Agency for Public Procurement should be given the resources to support the municipalities in their use of sustainable procurement from companies (Swedish Delegation for the 2030 Agenda, 2019, p. 6). Other proposals suggested by the delegation include: promoting research about what is required for Agenda 2030 at higher educational institutions, ensuring that there is sufficient communication between county boards regarding implementation, organizing regional forums to strengthen knowledge on the Agenda, and clarifying what responsibilities agencies have in terms of sustainable development (2019, p. 4, 7).
Looking specifically at Sustainable Development Goal number 13, Climate Action, the part that sticks out the most in the Action Plan for Agenda 2030 is the goal for zero net emissions. As shown by the Climate Policy Framework mentioned earlier, this overall goal aims to have zero net emissions by 2045 (Ministry of Finance, 2018, p. 30). Many of the other actions presented in this Action Plan have already been discussed in the previous section on National Initiatives.
A more statistical overview of Sweden’s work with Agenda 2030 was presented in a 2017 report by Statistics Sweden (SCB), who were tasked with using data and results to better map out progress. Overall, SCB concluded that 49 out of a total of 244 indicators have already been reached (20%). However, among these 49 SCB mentioned that some were deemed irrelevant for Sweden to pursue nationally (SCB, 2017, p. 23). When looking at Sustainable Development Goal number 13, the report describes how the steps needed to reach SDG 13 would set solid foundations on which to reach other Agenda 2030 targets such as eliminating poverty, clean water, economic growth and sustainable resource use, amongst others (SCB, 2017, p. 157). With 5 targets for SDG 13, the SCB bring up an alarming concern, stating that for such an important goal there is only one indicator directly related to the goal that can be used to measure progress. They do however attempt to solve this by using indicators from other development goals that can be tied into goal 13. These are: percentage of renewable energy systems, modernization of the industrial sector and fossil fuel subventions. In addition, statistics gathered by the EU on greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel price incentives can also be used (2017, p. 157). The report concludes that the only indicator that can be measured appropriately from the 5 chosen targets is 13.1.1: Deaths and injuries from natural disasters. Here (figure 10) data from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) was used to show number of injuries and deaths from natural disasters from 1967 to 2013:
21 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
Figure 10: Number of deaths and injuries from natural disasters 1967-2013 Deaths = blue, injuries = red
Source: Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) n.d.
For the remaining targets, 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into policy and planning, 13.3: Build Knowledge and capacity to meet climate change, and 13.A: Green Climate Fund mobilization of $100 billion, either have no indicators decided upon or have a different time period such as 2020-2025 for 13.A. However, as mentioned the SCB did state that other indicators could be used to help measure. For example, indicator 7.2.1: Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption, has shown that Sweden has already passed the EU directive of 49% for 2020 with 53%, putting Sweden at the top of the EU member states (2017, p.105).
For indicator 9.4.1: CO2 emissions per unit of value added, meaning the ratio of total emissions from the economy and the economy’s total value added, a general decline has been shown. This means that the total emissions have decreased while the economy has increased. In addition, investments to lower environmental impact by the industrial sector seem to have increased over the years (2017, p. 126-127).
Indicator 12.c: Amount of fossil fuel subsidies per unit of GDP, can also be used to get a better view of progress on climate goal 13. Here, SCB only states that Sweden does not pay out subventions for fossil fuels (2017, p. 156).
In addition, the SCB suggests using statistics from the EU regarding total greenhouse gas emissions. Data of greenhouse gasses is one of the key indicators used to track global climate change and follows the IPCC’s guidelines. The report shows that between 1990 to 2015 emissions have reduced by 25% (2017, p. 156). However, more recent data from SCB indicate a turnaround in the trend where emissions have slowly increased since 2015:
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Figure 11: Sweden's greenhouse gas emissions and GDP development from 2008 to 2018
Source: Statistics Sweden (SCB), 2019
*At the time of publication data for 2018 was preliminary
It is also important to look at the consumption-based emissions. In contrast to the production- based which are emissions inside a geographical area, these are a result of the production of imported goods adding to the amount of emissions in the country doing the exporting. As discussed in a 2013 article by Josefin Wangel on the sustainability of two areas in Stockholm, and further shown in more recent statistics by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and Statistics Sweden, Sweden’s consumption-based emissions tell a very different story compared to the production-based. Sweden is a net importer of greenhouse gases, in other words, the emissions produced by imported goods surpasses the amount of emissions produced inside Sweden’s borders (Wangel, 2013, p. 8). This is further shown in data (figure 12) by the Environmental Protection Agency and SCB:
.
23 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
Figure 12: Production-based and consumption-based emissions 1993-2013
Emissions in Sweden = blue, emissions in other countries = red
Source: SCB and Environmental Protection Agency, cited in SCB’s Statistical follow-up of Agenda 2030, 2017
More recent data from the Environmental Protection Agency show a slight increase in the consumption-based emissions:
Figure 13: Production-based and consumption-based emission 2008-2017
Production-based = yellow, consumption-based = green
Source: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2019
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4. Interview Details
While the statistics and data above do give significant insight into the made progress in a more measurable way, a local perspective could shed light on how working towards the goals actually looks like. As the Delegation for the 2030 Agenda discussed, implementation of the agenda at the municipal level is a key factor to successfully reaching the targets. Therefore, a number of interviews were held with different actors on the more local scale.
Three municipalities took part, along with a national authority and a private consultancy. Below are the results of the interviews, summarized to highlight the most relevant information pertaining to the study. For the municipalities, the questions were mostly about how they integrate SDG 13 and Agenda 2030, but also their opinions on communication between different actors and what changes could be made in general. Similar questions were asked to the private consultancy and SMHI, however with slightly more focus on their roles and responsibilities.
4.1 Interviews with Municipalities
Sundsvall Municipality The interview was held on April 22nd with Sofie Eriksson who works as an Environmental strategist for Sundsvall.
A key point that was discussed early in the interview was the distinction of two different ways to plan for climate change. There is climate adaptation, which according to the IPCC is:
“The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects” (IPCC, 2014)
Then there is climate mitigation, which in this study refers to actions that affect the rate at which the climate changes. Sofie Eriksson made this distinction and went on to explain that Sundsvall were quite early in implementing climate adaptation strategies, looking at what would impact them in the future. However, admitting that they need to rethink how they approach planning for climate mitigation. Recently though programs for environmental analysis have been produced and a more substantial mitigation plan is in the works.
When asked about how integrated Agenda 2030 is in Sundsvall’s operations, many of the local goals in the municipality are connected to the SDG’s where it is relevant, along with a social sustainability program. Eriksson goes on to say that the majority of Swedish municipalities have experience with the 2030 Agenda and have been working with the goals for a while now, with the same questions coming back often, however it seems that the way to approach them is what changes.
A challenge for Sundsvall, and municipalities in general, is knowing what scenario to plan after and to what extent. All regions have different circumstances and need to plan accordingly, and a nationally decided guideline has not really been produced to give clear directions. She
25 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13 explains how it becomes a very delicate balance. Actions have to be economically and socially sustainable, while also set to the correct standards and likely scenarios.
Another topic discussed during the interview was the government’s role and what changes could be made. Sofie Eriksson explains that the aspects of SDG 13 that are aimed at reducing emissions are difficult to scale down to a local level. The transportation and industry sectors vary between the different municipalities, therefore a decided upon emissions reduction for all of Sweden will mean altered reduction requirements for municipalities. She says how a level of freedom in planning is positive, as it allows for priorities according to local circumstances can be made.
Building on this, when asked if guidelines and recommendations are enough or if stricter rules would help, Eriksson answers that making requirements for all municipalities would be hard to implement appropriately. This is because they would not apply to all regions in an effective way. Instead of stricter laws, clearer guidelines on what scenario to follow would be of more help to municipalities. This has apparently been often left to individual assessments in most situations relating to climate adaptation. When it comes to preparedness and climate mitigation in general, Sofie Eriksson states that Sweden’s consumption and emissions including those abroad have a long way to go and in addition further adaptation measures are needed.
Haninge Municipality The interview was held on April 23rd with Petronella Troselius who works as a Climate and Environment strategist for Haninge.
In contrast to Sundsvall, Petronella Troselius explained that Haninge has had a stronger focus on reducing their climate impact rather than working on climate adaptation. While a climate adaptation strategy is in the production process, their main goals for climate mitigation follow the national goals. In addition, Haninge works with promoting and delivering more sustainable food to schools and care homes in a program called The Public Meal. Troselius explained that as Haninge decided on an environmental and climate-political program, the 2030 Agenda, Paris agreement and national environmental quality objectives were all part of the process and were important to integrate. She went on to give an interesting take on the difference between climate adaptation and climate mitigation:
“…And that’s interesting, because people tend to confuse what is what, climate [mitigation] is on behalf of coming generations and other countries, while climate adaptation is more “selfish” so to say, we do that for us, to reduce future costs, that’s what it’s about, to identify risks and weak points, and how to handle them.”
When asked how Haninge integrate SDG 13 and Agenda 2030 in their planning, Troselius explains that they work more with trying to raise awareness and knowledge on the goals in municipal organizations and internal seminars. How to approach the goals is also something that comes up often. Furthermore, Haninge has decided on an environment and climate- political program designed to work with all climate related questions, and a similar one dealing with social-political questions is soon to be produced. With these in place she says, the agenda 2030 will be widely covered in their planning.
Speaking about the national environmental quality objectives, she discusses how since they were decided upon nearly 20 years ago, they have become a regular part of planning, and when
26 Gustav Skoog AL130X Bachelor Thesis 2020:06 compared to the SDG’s have a lot in common. This has made Sweden somewhat of a role model in this area, implementing these goals early on and making them a natural part of municipal planning. However, Troselius goes on to say that there is still a lot of work left for Sweden. There needs to be a political will for goals to be established and later implemented. Additionally, it can be compared to the current Covid-19 pandemic and the way it is handled in Sweden, with a built-up system in place consisting of mostly recommendations and guidelines rather than laws. According to Troselius, the correct state of mind is on its way along with a better understanding of how urgent the issue is. We need to work on getting a clear picture of the situation and prioritize addressing the most negative impacts she says.
Helsingborg Municipality The interview was held on May 4th with Elin Sundqvist who works as an Environmental Strategist for Helsingborg.
Helsingborg have for a long time been working with climate questions and have since the 1990’s reduced their emissions by around 50%, becoming one of the most successful municipalities in this respect says Elin Sundqvist. Transport and energy emissions inside Helsingborg is an area of focus, but so is the consumption patterns that cause emissions outside of the geographical area. The municipally owned companies and administrations in Helsingborg can operate as they see appropriate in all areas including climate related questions, as long as they follow the guidelines and ambitions set by the municipality’s governance documents.
The international perspective is important for Helsingborg and Sundqvist explains how it is this perspective that they compare and measure against when implementing strategies. She goes on to say how there are climate-energy and life quality programs in place in her municipality that refer to many goals in the 2030 agenda. The Paris agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is used as a starting point for many of Helsingborg’s climate related questions.
When asked about the freedom that municipalities have in planning for climate change, Sundqvist answers that the given level of local governance is lenient and goes on to explain how this is an important aspect. With knowledge and research about the necessary adjustments to meet the 2030 agenda and the Paris agreement constantly updated, it is important says Sundqvist that there is a level of flexibility available so that changes can be better adapted to. With different circumstances in all municipalities, methods on how to act will naturally differ, but it is important that all actors’ base decisions on the same foundations and knowledge.
Further, local and national goals will have to be stricter if Sweden hopes to fulfill the Paris agreement, and outline not just the deadlines but also by how much emissions need to reduce each year. To reach the international agreements and deadlines however, Sundqvist states how it will eventually require that the government implements more national actions and possibly stricter guidelines, and that municipalities that need it get the right support. A lot of work remains, especially in the transport sector, and Sweden has not reduced emissions at the pace stated in the environmental quality objectives. We need to step it up and act quicker, and all of society will need to work together to achieve this says Sundqvist.
27 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
4.2 Interview with National Authority
SMHI The interview was held on April 24th with Lena Lindström who works as a contact-point coordinator for IPCC at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), and a product owner of SMHI’s climate services.
With SMHI is a national authority, therefore receive their mandate from the government. Lindström explains that SMHI is a research operation, and the information and material that they produce is based on scientific grounds. They have different knowledge services, such as the Climate Adaptation Portal, and maintain a great deal of communication with municipalities and county governments.
One question that SMHI apparently received quite often, was what RCP‡ levels SMHI recommended municipalities to plan after. Lindström says that while many municipalities for example would like one exact scenario to plan after, SMHI do not recommend one single scenario since one is not more likely than the other. A lot can change in human behavior and usually it becomes a political issue that is out of SMHI’s mandate. Instead, their mission is to raise awareness on how a certain behavior and emissions level will result in a specific scenario. They calculate projections showing how the climate will react and how it will affect Sweden.
As with the other interviews, the topic of climate adaptation and climate mitigation was talked about. Lindström discussed how the two need to be taken into perspective. They need to be communicated together so that one of them does not end up becoming prioritized over the other one. She went on to say that an important perspective to hold on to is that as we reduce our climate impact, the necessary climate adaptation measures will no longer be as necessary. However, with the consequences of climate change already impacting society today, we need to be proactive and find flexible solutions that can be built upon in the future.
4.3 Interview with Private Consultancy
DHI The interview was held on April 17th with Marinette Hagman who is head of the Natural Waters Department at DHI.
DHI is a global company who works with developing solutions to water related challenges that ultimately contribute to solving global development goals. In Sweden they mostly work with ensuring clean water, but also the impacts on the sea environment due to climate change. Hagman explains that their usual clientele consists of a wide customer base. Mostly of municipalities and regional boards, and the occasional larger company wishing to reduce their emissions. Many seem to have a good idea of how climate change will impact Sweden, yet do not necessarily know about the available solutions. This however is okay explains Hagman, since it allows consultants and companies with dedicated resources to specialize in solutions.
‡ Representative Concentration Pathways. Used to predict how greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will change due to human behavior. RCP levels range from 2.6 (very low), 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 (very high), and refer to the year 2100 (CoastAdapt, n.d.)
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Since climate adaptation is such an extensive policy, many factors tend to come in play. Hagman goes on to say that rainfall for example poses difficulties since it can change unpredictably and becomes hard to adapt to accordingly. There will be dryer and wetter periods, and both need to be considered. Many of the greater challenges will vary and depend on the pre-existing circumstances in the region or municipality.
Many municipalities already work with these challenges, how to solve them, how to plan and control better, and this work is integrated in their strategies. While there is significant work currently in progress, we are not at the point where we are prepared for all the changes explains Hagman.
29 A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
5. Discussion 5.1 Climate Adaptation vs. Climate Mitigation
The research and the interviews have shown that there exists a rift between climate adaptation and climate mitigation. Focus between the two appeared to differ on the more local level. As these tend to vary in priority as seen with Sundsvall working more with climate adaptation and Haninge with mitigation it suggests that with limited resources full integration of the two is not always possible. This raises the point that resource allocation during the implementation phase is vital. In Sweden’s case, the question of how to allocate resources between climate adaptation and climate mitigation becomes very difficult.
As discussed, climate change is a global problem and one nations actions and emissions affect the scale of impact in another. Climate adaptation is therefore important, as proven in the 2017 National Strategy. Large scale projects and long-term strategic developments must take into account the future climate threats during the planning stage as damage could otherwise turn out to be extremely costly, as with the damage to infrastructure, ecosystems and human lives (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 44). The timescale is still long however, with many consequences only beginning to be seriously felt around 2075-2100 (2017, p. 27). Looking at the statistics, as shown in Figure 5, only 15% of municipalities will be in risk category 3 of ocean flooding. Figure 7 shows how only 13% will be in landslide risk category 4. In addition, as Markus Eriksson et al. mentions in the earlier section identifying administrative challenges, the uncertainty in projections of future sea levels complicates decision-making (M. Eriksson et al, 2017, p. 2). Not only are the major threats neither widespread across the country nor immediate, but more importantly the numerous uncertainties that come with sea level changes and the unpredictability of rainfall episodes makes it so that climate adaptation is complex to plan, and therefore costly.
In terms of climate mitigation, production-based emissions in Sweden are slowly making progress, despite a slight recent stagnation (figure 10). The long-term climate goal connected to the Climate Policy Framework is very ambitious, and renewable energy use is the highest in Europe (SCB, 2017, p. 105), showing good political will and a positive direction. Consumption patterns in Sweden however could potentially be affecting the nations doing the producing and exporting, making it harder for them to reach SDG 13 and Agenda goals. It seems to be the one area that is greatly holding Sweden back in terms of making significant progress and becoming a model nation. Yet similar to climate adaptation, consumption patterns are complex and difficult to plan. Certain economic incentives are possible, including emissions-tax or renewable energy subsidies, and as discussed in section 3.2.1, Swedish public opinion appears to be generally in-favor of pushing the government and local authorities to continue and intensify climate work (von Heijne, 2019).
However, laws restricting consumption cannot realistically be implemented, and EU laws for fair trade limit to what extent Sweden can choose more sustainable exporters of goods, including EU regulations on public procurement and local sourcing, which further limits the possibilities. Changes in consumption ultimately come down to the choices made by the public, and the most the government or municipalities can do here is increase awareness and promote locally sourced produce. On a national scale consumption patterns are hard to change quickly; it takes time for citizens to willingly change their behavior.
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According to the municipalities that were interviewed, regardless if for example climate adaptation received more focus, there was still a plan in place or in the process to produce new strategies for improving climate mitigation. So, despite some varying focus between mitigation and adaptation, the importance of implementing both to successfully combat climate change seems well recognized. As Lindström from SMHI says, climate adaptation and mitigation need to be considered together and put in perspective - one should not get more focus than the other.
5.2 Agenda 2030 and SDG 13 at the local level
Looking at the local level, Agenda 2030 and SDG 13 seem to have found their place. The interviews showed that they are recognized and a relatively important part of the planning process. The environmental quality objectives reflect the aims of the UN climate goals but are kept specific for Sweden’s circumstances and immediate issues. As mentioned by both Eriksson (Sundsvall) and Troselius (Haninge), most municipalities have for a long time worked with the environmental quality objectives and therefore have passively been working with the 2030 Agenda climate goals. A good example is Helsingborg, where according to Sundqvist the international perspective is important, and also where significant progress in terms of reducing emissions and implementing policies has been made. This all indicates that Sweden at the local level seems to have successfully integrated the relevant aspects of Agenda 2030, and in this case, the climate goals. Additionally, as presented in section 3.2.1, the majority of Swedish political parties recognize the importance of climate policies. This shows that the general public opinion is in favor of continued climate ambitions in the parliament.
5.3 The SDG 13 targets
Using the SDG 13 targets as shown in appendix 1, the progress Sweden is making can be further discussed.
13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related disasters It is difficult to evaluate how well this target is getting achieved. Climate adaptation work is part of the planning and there is a definitive recognition of the issue as proven by the 2018 National Strategy for Climate Adaptation. The interviews showed that municipalities generally are working on climate adaptation in varying degrees, where in some cases climate mitigation was instead a higher priority. This statement is hard to justify however as only 3 municipalities were interviewed; a topic raised later on in the study. With the more serious effects of climate change approaching Sweden, the level of resilience and adaptive capacity will be tested. As shown in figure 10, Sweden has had few instances of natural disasters throughout the years, with the majority causing mostly injuries and few deaths. This indicates that Sweden has not been significantly susceptible to natural disasters, and preparedness to these has so far been sufficient enough to keep casualties low. Yet as previously mentioned in section 5.1, long-term projects currently in the planning process need to take into account how climate disasters will change and become more severe. Areas today such as Göta Älv already pose threats and will only increase in risk if no action is taken (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 26).
A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
13.2 Integrate climate change measures into policy and planning More progress has certainly been made for this target. Planning and policy have both on a national and local level been integrated with climate change measures. These include the well- established Environmental Quality Objectives that convey much of the UN climate goals and have been present for many years. The interview with Helsingborg showed that the Paris agreement seems to have made its way into local planning too. Agenda 2030 gets attention, either by direct integration and reference for local strategies and programs, or through awareness and knowledge raising such as in the case for Haninge. Important to mention also is Sweden’s support to international efforts. Perhaps this is more relevant to target 13.A, but the international commitment shows that the political will exists and that climate questions in general, not just inside Sweden’s geographical borders, are part of the government’s political agenda and focus (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2018).
13.3 Build knowledge and capacity to meet climate change While a difficult target to measure properly, many of the discussed initiatives, like The Climate Policy Framework and the Environmental Quality Objectives, indicate that knowledge is present, and that this goal is nearly met. Municipalities are knowledgeable on what the current situation is, and the interviews proved this. Capacity also appears to be present in terms of multiple relevant authorities such as the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, SMHI, the Water- and Ocean authority, SCB, the Swedish Delegation for 2030 Agenda etc. However, in some cases at the local level there were doubts as to how to implement the knowledge and address the challenges effectively. Resource allocation also appeared to be an issue.
13.A Implement the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Again, this is slightly hard to measure. The time period for this goal is to by 2020 to start raising funds meaning it could be that it is too early to say if this target is being reached. Questions also arise, for example how much Sweden is responsible of contributing. This is after all an international goal involving many developing and industrialized nations, and it currently seems no decided amount has been set for each nation to contribute. However, Sweden already contributes a significant amount to the Green Climate Fund, now one of the top donors (Green Climate Fund, 2019). In some ways it might be fair to say that Sweden is doing its part in international funding, but it is too early to reach a decisive conclusion on the progress of this target.
13.B Promote mechanisms to raise capacity for planning and management Here Sweden appears to be doing quite well at the global level. The new 5-year strategy for global cooperation and development acting as a guideline for SIDA almost directly relates to this target and shows that mechanisms are promoted internationally by Sweden (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2018). The green climate fund contributions could be argued to be a passive way of reaching this target, as the Green Climate Fund works to reach it.
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5.4 Lack of indicators
An issue originally raised by Statistics Sweden is the lack of clear and measurable indicators for SDG 13 (2017, p. 157). It could be that Sweden and other countries working towards goal number 13 have trouble reaching the targets and setting up clear strategies since it seems as though there are not enough unanimously agreed upon ways to measure progress. SCB stated that they did not have a clear way to do this, and much of it has to be analyzed using different targets from other sustainability goals as discussed in section 3.3. A common tool used for setting goals is the acronym SMART, which means that each goal should be: Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic and Time-bound. Of course, this tool might not be fully applicable to the Sustainable Development Goals since they are a very specific type of goals. They are made to apply to multiple countries over many years and therefore need to take into account all types of local circumstances. But SMART can be used to develop a simple review of the targets in question. The SDG 13 goal and its targets seem quite attainable and realistic for most countries. They also time bound for 2030, but how measurable and specific are they? Some of them naturally are. Indicator 13.A.1 stating 100 billion US dollars to be contributed between 2020-2025 is specific and measurable, yet indicator 13.3.1 measures how many countries have integrated climate change learning aspects into education at the primary, secondary and tertiary level (Ritchie et. al, 2018). Is it sufficient to have it as one explored theme during a subject taught in high-school, or should entire courses be dedicated to climate change already in middle school?
Another example is indicator 13.3.2:
“Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation and technology transfer, and development actions.” (Ritchie et. al, 2018)
Uncertainties could arise on how to appropriately define this indicator in a practical use. Giving value to “systemic and individual capacity-building” in order to measure progress is difficult. This is not intended to act as a critique of the goals. The SDG’s are arguably the most important international goals and reaching them could prove to be a pivotal point in history, but it should be discussed to what extent progress is to be expected and reviewed.
On the other hand, maybe they do not need to be measurable to be reached. A striving to reach the goals as well as possible could be argued to be enough. As long as countries interpret them correctly and persistently pursue them, this should be sufficient. As SCB states, other targets can still be used to measure the progress, and what needs to be done to reach different climate goals is becoming common knowledge. What seems to be missing is not fully measurable goals, but rather maybe a stronger political will in place to pursue them (Troselius, 2020).
5.5 Possible Changes in Sweden
The interview responses showed that more needs to be done in Sweden. While many were in agreement on the main objective, they seemed to have generally different ideas on what should change. For example, the need for improved consumption patterns was further brought up by Eriksson (Sundsvall). The need for clearer guidelines was also mentioned. Sundqvist (Helsinborg) argued that decisions need to be based on the same basis, and Lindström
A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13 mentioned that SMHI regularly receive the question on what RCP’s levels and scenarios to plan after. Perhaps the government should decide upon a clear and agreed scenario that states what direction Sweden is heading in under the current circumstances. Important to consider however is that most of the mentioned initiatives in section 3.2 are still relatively recent, the impact might still remain to be seen and will hopefully mitigate many of the projected threats. As the government stated, the Climate Policy Framework is the most important climate reform in Sweden’s history, meaning it will surely have a strong impact going forward (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, 2017). Additionally, while consumption patterns are difficult for the government to affect, the transport sector is an area the government has more responsibility and freedom in to implement changes. Further investments in more fossil free transportation could not only lower emissions but also set an example for other countries to do the same.
Some further challenges were discussed in section 3.1 and 5.1, where the point was raised according to Markus Eriksson that uncertainty in sea-level rise estimates is a factor that complicates climate change planning for municipalities. In addition, some municipalities in Sweden do not have a strategy for a future sea level rise beyond the year 2100 (2017, p. 2), and many have to rely on consultants and regional authorities to provide estimates and projections (Kanyama et. al, 2017, p. 7). This raises the question whether Swedish municipalities are receiving enough support, and if the government should allocate more resources so that municipalities can produce their own estimates and projections. Perhaps analyses produced in- house could prove to be cost-effective in the long run, allowing for more frequent and accurate studies.
Also discussed in section 3.1, according to the 2018 National Strategy for Climate Adaptation, the European Commission and SMHI stated in 2015 that a national governance of the climate adaptation work was lacking. Additionally, relevant authorities received insufficient and unclear mandates, there was a lack of cooperation between different sectors and few appropriate follow-ups to evaluate the climate adaptation work (Sweden, Department for Environment and Energy, 2017, p. 75). This suggests that changes need to be made in the administrative sector, and that communication between involved actors needs to improve. However, many of the discussed climate initiatives in section 3.2, such as the Climate Policy Framework, sets obligations for the government to establish a climate policy. This could address the issue brought up by the European Commission and SMHI about the lack of a national governance. The Climate Policy Council’s task is to assess this climate policy, which will hopefully include a more overarching follow-up of the climate work across the country (Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, 2017). With this, it seems that progress is getting made in the areas that were earlier deemed as falling behind. Not to mention the environmental quality objectives already well in-grained into municipal planning, and the ambitious goal of zero net emissions by 2045. With much work of course still remaining Sweden does appear to have recognized some of the faults in their planning for climate change and have since stepped up the work to better meet the goals and the expectations.
5.6 Improvements to the Study and Further Research
Some changes that could have been made to this study would firstly have been to interview, or at least conduct more research, on more than just three municipalities. While the interviewed municipalities did prove to be different not only in geographic location but also in the way they plan for climate change and climate mitigation, the possibility of drawing more general
34 Gustav Skoog AL130X Bachelor Thesis 2020:06 conclusions addressing all of Sweden became relatively limited. All municipalities plan according to unique circumstances and just because Haninge, Sundsvall and Helsingborg have integrated Agenda 2030 in their strategies, or prioritize climate adaptation, does not necessarily mean that this is the case for other municipalities. This is important to remember when looking at the different arguments that were brought up in the discussion and the conclusions that were made. In order to make the study more reliable one or two more municipalities should have been interviewed so that stronger comparisons and generalizations could have been made.
Secondly, a comparison with one or two other countries could have allowed for a different perspective on Sweden’s progress. The most ideal comparison would perhaps have been briefly studying another Nordic country facing similar climate threats. This way Sweden’s initiatives and strategies could have been better analyzed, when looking over for example Norway’s or Denmark’s strategies. Seeing what policies they have implemented and comparing these to Sweden’s could have allowed for more of an evaluation rather than a just a detailed review.
Lastly, an interview with someone in a more national position would have been beneficial as it would have widened the perspective of the study. A relatively local view was given through the interviews with the municipalities, with DHI and SMHI giving more of a general perspective. While all very valuable to the study, an interview candidate in a government position or similar could have shed light on many of the discussion points in the study that referred to the political will or the national governance of climate policies. Since these are quite important aspects of Sweden’s climate work, more insight in this area would give the study and its conclusions more legitimacy.
Some interesting research that could be made to further expand the topic would be looking at the European Union’s role. More specifically, investigating a similar study but with the EU in focus, reviewing the different climate goals and targets that member states of the EU work to achieve, and how Sweden is working towards these or even achieving them. This aspect could be integrated into the study to look at how the UN goals transfer down to the EU and how these are further applied in Sweden. Some questions could be for example what differences there are between EU and UN targets, and how they have been changed to better fit European circumstances.
A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
6. Conclusion
After having analyzed the research material together with the interview results, and discussed the different perspectives and outcomes, some general conclusions can be drawn despite the limitations discussed above. Looking first at the positive aspects, it is clear that the knowledge and capacity to deal with climate change exists in Sweden. With numerous authorities involved and the trend showing that municipalities have already integrated both national and global climate goals, the relevant aspects of Sustainable Development Goal number 13 are a part of planning. The recent climate initiatives show a commitment to filling the gaps in areas of policy and planning that were previously lacking, such as a clearer national governance. The coming years will tell how effective these initiatives will actually turn out to be, yet the potential is there. Equally significant is the political view that exists in Sweden, with the majority of parties including climate ambitions in their political agenda. This shows that favorable circumstances exist within Sweden for SDG 13 to be reached, with a change in the political majority in parliament not diminishing the ongoing climate work. This reaches beyond Sweden’s own borders, in the current global efforts getting carried out in the form of large monetary contributions and cooperation strategies for supporting developing countries.
With this said, there are changes that would need to be made in order to further improve the climate work in Sweden. A nationally agreed upon climate scenario could give municipalities the necessary direction to be able to plan more effectively for future changes, in addition to further resources becoming available by the government to allow for independent climate analyses and projections. Further, consumption-based emissions need to be addressed more and made into a priority. By looking at how to reduce import levels of different goods as a result of consumption patterns across the country, much progress would be made by reducing the total emissions caused by Sweden. However, influencing consumption patterns remains a great challenge requiring a change in citizen behaviors which ultimately takes time. Even though the study in section 3.2.1 did show how the environment is becoming an increasingly important question amongst citizens, this does not necessarily mean a change in behavior is on its way.
The lack of measurable indicators for Sustainable Development Goal number 13 is an important factor to remember when looking at the made progress. While this could be considered to be an obstructive aspect holding back progress in certain countries due to the difficulty in measuring, continuous work to meet the goals needs to be maintained. By using other SDG’s as indicators, progression can still be measured, and it is important that countries remain persistent in their climate work.
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7. Closing Remarks
Humankind is hesitantly stumbling through what could one day be regarded as the most pivotal periods in our history. Time and time again we have stood at the doorsteps of global crises that have taken the form of tyrannical empires, deadly pandemics, and trigger-happy world leaders. In one way or another however, we have managed to persist through these and have emerged on the other side slightly more aware of the mistakes that were made. But one threat has yet to reveal its true form. One that has been discretely reminding us of the potential disasters yet remained mostly hidden, in order to let us drive it to the point of no return. The sleeping giant that is climate change is getting increasingly awoken by the nearby village that is the human footprint on earth. Since previous threats have caused imminent danger to human lives, we have been able to quickly recognize the gravity of inaction. However, climate change does not present itself in a way where tomorrow will be different, it is 10 to 20 years from now that will be different. We fail to see the urgency of the threat; therefore, we fail to act on it accordingly.
Perhaps this is a harsh way to see it. But it is important to highlight that the decisions we make, and more importantly do not make, will ultimately affect future generations in countless ways. An effective, long-term solution requires cooperation and teamwork where everyone is included. The responsibility cannot be solely placed on one person, government, or authority, but needs to be a joint effort. The changes to our daily life and to the system we follow that are needed are generally known. Most people and countries nowadays recognize that we need to lower our carbon emissions, we need find more sustainable ways of harnessing energy and growing food, and we need to start working together. Yet, much work still remains before we can sit back and relax. Hopefully this study will contribute to further sustainable development in Sweden by highlighting some of the inner workings of climate planning and identifying areas for improvement, and ultimately acting as a global reminder to all of us that the job of saving earth is not yet finished.
A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
8. Appendix
Appendix 1 Targets and indicators for SDG 13, taken from SDG-Tracker.org
Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related disasters
SDG indicator 13.1.1: Deaths and injuries from natural disasters Definition: “number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population”
SDG indicator 13.1.2: National disaster risk management Definition: “number of countries that adopt and implement national disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030”
SDG indicator 13.1.3: Local disaster risk management Definition: “Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national disaster risk reduction strategies”
Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into policy and planning
SDG indicator 13.2.1: Integration of climate change into national policies Definition: “Number of countries that have communicated the establishment or operationalization of an integrated policy/strategy/plan which increases their ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development”
Target 13.3: Build knowledge and capacity to meet climate change
SDG indicator 13.3.1: “Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation and impact reduction and early warning into primary, secondary and tertiary curricula”
SDG indicator 13.3.2: “Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation and technology transfer, and development actions”
Target 13.A: Implement the UN Framework Convention of Climate Change
SDG indicator 13.A.1: Green Climate Fund mobilization of $100 billion Definition: “mobilized amount of United States dollars per year between 2020 and 2025 accountable towards the $100 billion commitment”
Target 13.B: Promote mechanisms to raise capacity for planning and management
SDG indicator 13.B.1: Support for planning and management in least-developed countries Definition: “Number of least developed countries and small island developing states that are receiving specialized support, and amount of support, including finance, technology and capacity-building, for mechanisms for raising capacities for effective climate change-related planning and management” (Ritchie et. al, 2018)
38 Gustav Skoog AL130X Bachelor Thesis 2020:06
Appendix 2 The national environmental quality objectives:
1. Reduced Climate Impact 2. Clean Air 3. Natural Acidification Only 4. A Non-Toxic Environment 5. A Protective Ozone Layer 6. A Safe Radiation Environment 7. Zero Eutrophication 8. Flourishing Lakes and Streams 9. Good-Quality Groundwater 10. A Balances Marine Environment, Flourishing Coastal Areas and Archipelagos 11. Thriving Wetlands 12. Sustainable Forests 13. A Varied Agricultural Landscape 14. A Magnificent Mountain Landscape 15. A Good Build Environment 16. A Rich Diversity of Plant and Animal Life
(Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2019)
Appendix 3
SIDA strategy goals: - SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation - SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy - SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities - SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production - SDG 13: Climate Action - SDG 14: Life Below Water - SDG 15: Life on Land
(Sweden, Ministry of the Environment; Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2018)
Appendix 4
Names and titles translated from Swedish to English by author: - Swedish Environmental Protection Agency = Naturvårdsverket - Swedish Ocean and Water authority = Havs- och vattenmyndigheten - Sweden's Environmental Goals = Sveriges Miljömål - Statistics Sweden = Statistik Myndigheten - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) = Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut - The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency = Myndigheten for Samhallskydd och Beredskap - The Whole List: All 290 Municipalities Ranked = Hela listan - alla 290 kommuner rankade - Goal 13: Climate action = Mal 13: Klimat paverkan
A Closer Look at What Sweden is Doing to Achieve SDG 13
- The Ocean and Water authority's work on action plan for climate adaptation = Havs- och vattenmyndighetens arbete med handlingsplan för klimatanpassning - National Overview of fine grained soils landslide risk = Riksöversikt över finkorniga jordars skredbenägenhet - How Sustainable are Hammarby Sjöstad and Norra Djurgårdstaden? = Hur hållbara är Hammarby sjöstad och Norra Djurgårdstaden? - Conditions for Sustainability = Hallbarhetens Villkor - Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SSNC) = Naturskyddsföreningen - Novus: Environment and Climate Increasingly Important for Swedish Voters = Novus: Miljö och klimat allt viktigare för svenska väljare - Political Parties Promise This Much for the Environment = Så mycket lovar partierna för miljön
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