BUSINESS SATURDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2019 13

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UK rate cut US economy ‘plausible’ if cools as consumer Brexit uncertainty spending misses persists: Saunders forecasts

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REUTERS The rates for loading United States and Brazil were SINGAPORE Middle East crude to cancelled, oil and shipping west coast in sources said. Key oil freight rates from the “There’s confusion in the H E Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi (second left), the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, holding talks with Middle East to Asia rocketed as the second week of market for those who has fixed Isshu Sugawara, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, in Tokyo. much as 28 percent yesterday in October jumped 28 the COSCO’s vessels. Everyone a global oil shipping market percent to 80-92.5 wants to avoid exposure to U.S. spooked by United States sanc- points after Reliance sanctions,” a Singapore-based Al Kaabi holds talks with tions on units of Chinese giant trader said. COSCO for alleged involvement Industries Ltd booked Provisional bookings for in ferrying crude out of Iran. two supertankers VLCCs Cosmerry Lake and Yuan Japan’s Economy Minister In what the State Department overnight. Qiu Hu to load US oil in the called “one of the largest sanc- second half of October were THE PENINSULA tions actions the US has taken” scrapped. DOHA meeting focused on cooper- and future cooperation in all since curbs were re-imposed on $600,000 per ship, a Singapore- Cosmerry Lake, owned by ation between Qatar and Japan aspects of the energy industry. Iran in November last year, two based crude oil trader said. Cosmerry Lake Maritime Inc and H E Saad bin Sherida Al in the field of energy and par- The discussions were units of COSCO were named The rates for loading Middle managed by COSCO Shipping Kaabi, the Minister of State for ticularly in the natural gas attended by Hassan bin alongside other companies in East crude to west coast India in Tanker (Dalian), is floating off the Energy Affairs, held talks in industry, and other issues of Mohammed Rafei Al Emadi, claims of involvement in sanc- the second week of October US Gulf. Yuan Qiu Hu, owned and Tokyo with Isshu Sugawara, mutual concern. Ambassador of the State of Qatar tions-busting shipments of jumped 28 percent to 80-92.5 managed by COSCO Shipping Japan’s Minister of Economy, Ministers Al Kaabi and Sug- to Japan, as well as senior exec- Iranian oil. points after Reliance Industries Tanker (Dalian), is on its way to Trade and Industry. awara reaffirmed commitment utives from Qatar Petroleum and The surprise move, affecting Ltd booked two supertankers the US Gulf. Discussions during the to stronger bilateral relations Qatargas. one of the world’s largest energy overnight, industry sources said. A third COSCO-linked shippers, operating more than 50 But there was also uncer- supertanker was chartered to supertankers, comes as US Pres- tainty over how widely the sanc- load in Brazil, but it has been Suning completes purchase Mylan in $30m ident Donald Trump seeks to tions on the COSCO units - replaced by another vessel, a exert maximum pressure on Iran COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian) source with knowledge of the of Carrefour’s China business US settlement to drop nuclear programmes. Co, Ltd and its subsidiary COSCO matter said. AFP statement posted on the As some Asian oil buyers Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Seaman Contacted by Reuters, an SHANGHAI Shenzhen Stock Exchange that over EpiPen rushed to secure vessels, rates for & Ship Management Co, Ltd - will official at COSCO said the impact it paid 4.8 billion yuan ($670m) chartering supertankers, or very be implemented. of the sanctions was being Chinese retail giant Suning in the cash transaction com- probe large crude carriers (VLCCs), to COSCO Shipping Tanker examined. Trading in shares of said yesterday it has acquired pleted on Thursday. load crude oil from the Middle (Dalian) owns and manages at COSCO Shipping Energy Trans- 80 percent of French super- “The comprehensive digi- disclosures East to north Asia in October least 36 tankers for crude and portation was halted on Thursday market Carrefour’s China tization of retail elements is the surged nearly 19% overnight to refined products, including 18 after the news on the sanctions. business as it aims to tap first priority of traditional retail AFP/NEW YORK about 75-76 points on World- VLCCs, according to shipping Industry sources said some online food sales and expand industry facing future devel- scale, an industry tool used to cal- sources and Refinitiv data. buyers were holding off while its physical presence. opment,” said Suning Holdings Mylan will pay $30m to settle culate freight charges, shipping At least three ships linked to they check with legal teams to Three months after the Group’s CEO Zhang Jindong in US charges it misled investors and industry sources said. That COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian) better understand the impact of agreement was first announced, a letter to welcome 30,000 about probes of EpiPen means an increase of about scheduled to load oil from the the sanctions. Nanjing-based Suning said in a Carrefour workers in China. payments under a federal health program, a US securities regu- lator announced yesterday. Mylan settled the case Turkey will make up without admitting or denying BIS sets up ‘green’ bond the allegations. for tourists lost in Thomas The charges concern Mylan’s statements to investors Cook collapse: Minister fund for central banks in 2015 and 2016, a period when the drug company was criticized REUTETRS Speaking at a conference in AFP In a quarterly report pub- in the media and in Congress for ISTANBUL Istanbul to announce Turkey’s ZURICH lished Sunday, the BIS detailed massive price increases of more tourism strategy, Ersoy said the obstacles facing central than 500 percent for EpiPen, a Turkey will be able to make up Easyjet had guaranteed that it The Bank of International Settle- banks’ wanting to include green lifesaving allergy medication. for the number of tourists lost will provide additional capacity ments said it had launched a fund investments in their reserve In the federal Medicaid after Thomas Cook collapsed for 350,000 people annually to to enable central banks around management. program, Mylan had categorized earlier this week, Tourism Min- Turkish holiday destinations. the world to invest in “green While green bond yields are EpiPen as a generic drug, a clas- ister Mehmet Ersoy said yes- Ersoy added that Turkish bonds”, citing a growing demand high, a lack of liquidity in a sification that allowed it to pay terday, announcing that several Airlines and its joint venture for climate-friendly investments. narrow market segment cur- lower rebates to the government airlines are expected to increase with Lufthansa, Sunexpress, The Basel-based BIS, con- rently constitutes the main than if the drug had been called flights to the country. would each schedule one addi- sidered the central bank for obstacles, it found. a branded drug. Tourism is a major source of tional flight per day to Dalaman central banks, said the new fund The green bond market US officials administering income for Turkey, helping to Airport, located near several would help “central banks to remains small, but is growing Medicaid contested this classi- rein in its current account Aegean coastal holiday incorporate environmental sus- rapidly, quadrupling in size over a fication and the matter was also deficit, especially in the summer destinations. tainability objectives in the man- four-year period, from some probed by the US Department months. Around 40 million He said Britain’s Jet2 airline agement of their reserves.” BIS minimum rating of A- and $50bn in 2014 to $230bn last year. of Justice. In October 2016, tourists visited in 2018, bringing is also expected to provide addi- said that an advisory committee comply with international green Thursday’s announcement came Mylan agreed to pay $465m to in $29.5bn, according to official tional flights and British Airways drawn from a global group of bond standards, which have been as a growing number of investment settle the Justice Department data. is expected to double its flights central banks had been set up to published by the Climate Bonds and wealth funds have also been charges that it overbilled Med- The head of Turkey’s to Dalaman to six per week as support the fund, which pools BIS Initiative, it said. looking to pull away from fossil icaid for the EpiPen medication. Hoteliers Federation said on of next year and to gradually client assets “to promote green “We are confident that, by fuels and shift to renewables, espe- The SEC contended that Mylan Monday that Turkey could miss increase its flights to the Medi- finance through sizeable climate- aggregating the investment cially since the 2015 Paris kept investors in the dark about out on 600,000-700,000 terranean coastal province of friendly investments.” The open- power of central banks, we can Agreement on climate change. the possible liability prior to the tourists a year following the col- Antalya to six per week. ended fund, which is denomi- influence the behaviour of Earlier this month a report settlement. lapse of Thomas Cook. The He said EasyJet, British nated in US dollars and struc- market participants and have released as part of the “Financing By the third quarter of 2015, Tourism Ministry has said earlier Airways and Jet2 officials would tured according to Swiss law, will some impact on how green the Future” summit in Cape Town Mylan “knew or should have that it was working with the be in Turkey next week to be managed in-house by BIS investment standards develop,” found that institutional investors known” that a material loss con- Finance Ministry to extend a discuss details and sign a deal Asset Management, it said. BIS Banking Department head holding assets worth $11 trillion nected to the probes was “rea- loan support package to busi- on agreements reached to To be eligible for inclusion in Peter Zollner (pictured) said in have now pledged to divest from sonably possible,” the SEC said nesses that were affected. increase flights. the fund, bonds must have a the statement. fossil fuel assets. in a complaint. 14 BUSINESS SATURDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2019 UK rate cut ‘plausible’ if Brexit MARKETWATCH uncertainty persists: Saunders QSE FTSE100 DOW CRUDE 10,420.02 7,426.21 26,789.59 $55.51 REUTERS and perhaps to loosen policy at Last week, without -21.02 PTS +75.13 PTS −101.53 PTS -0.90 BARNSLEY, ENGLAND some stage, especially if global directly raising the 0.2% 1.02% 0.38% Dow & Brent before going to press growth remains disappointing,” prospect of cutting The Bank of England may need he said. to cut interest rates in the likely British economic growth interest rates, the scenario that high levels of continuing at its current level of Bank of England said uncertainty over Brexit persist, 0.1%-0.2% would be sufficient Brexit and slower policymaker Michael Saunders to justify lower rates, due to the (pictured) said yesterday in the risk of slack opening up in the world growth were Zimbabwe first clear signal that the BoE is economy and pushing inflation increasingly causing considering a cut. further below its 2% target, Britain’s economy inflation soars to Last week, without directly Saunders said. to perform below raising the prospect of cutting The economy shrank by 0.2% interest rates, the Bank of in the second quarter of 2019 and potential. England said Brexit and slower last week the BoE trimmed its nearly 300%: IMF world growth were increasingly 4-5 basis points as investors third-quarter growth forecast to rate cut if the outlook brightened AFP causing Britain’s economy to priced in the increased chance 0.2% from 0.3%, while inflation would be low, Saunders added at HARARE The latest estimates perform below potential. of lower borrowing costs. dropped more sharply than the event hosted by the Barnsley are stoking fears of Saunders - who was one of Prime Minister Boris Johnson expected to 1.7% in August. and Rotherham Chamber of Com- the the first BoE policymakers to has pledged to take Britain out David Cheetham, chief merce and Institute of Chartered Zimbabwe’s annual inflation a return of the kind vote for higher interest rates in of the European Union by Oct. market analyst at brokers XTB, Accountants. rate soared to nearly 300 of hyperinflation 2017 and 2018 - said it was now 31, without any transition said the BoE looked increasingly “In general, I would prefer percent in August spurred that wiped out his view that the unpredictable agreement if necessary, but is in likely to follow the U.S Federal to be nimble... accepting that it mainly by a collapsing cur- savings 10 years ago path of Brexit would effectively a standoff with parliament which Reserve and European Central may be necessary to change rency, the International Mon- act as a “slow puncture” for the has voted to block a no-deal Bank and cut rates. course if the outlook changes etary Fund (IMF) said when the economy economy. departure next month. “The economy is still barely significantly,” he said. Thursday after a mission to collapsed and “Growth has slowed to a Even if Britain temporarily keeping its head above water. Saunders still agreed with the crisis-weary country. prices of goods and mere crawl,” he told local busi- avoids a no-deal Brexit, uncer- Throw in the almost universally recent BoE guidance that a In a statement, the IMF services skyrocketed nesses in Barnsley, northern tainty was likely to remain high, acknowledged continued levels limited and gradual increase in said year-on-year inflation England. “I think it is quite plau- either due to the risk of a no-deal of heightened uncertainty on the interest rates would be needed “reached almost 300 percent every week. sible that the next move in Bank Brexit in 2020 or due to a lack political front ... and it is actually over the medium term, if Brexit in August”. Rate would be down rather than of clarity about longer-term pretty shocking that a comment uncertainty reduced significantly The local currency has concluded that the southern up.” trading relationships with the that a rate cut is ‘quite plausible’ and global growth perked up a fallen from parity against the African country remains in After the comments, sterling EU, Saunders said. has caused such a response.” bit. American dollar to 16.5 Zim- “economic difficulties” which fell by as much as half a cent “In this case, it might well be Simply waiting to see what n the event of a no-deal babwean dollars (ZWL) per US have been “exacerbated by against the dollar to a three- appropriate to maintain a highly happened with Brexit risked Brexit, Saunders repeated the dollar following currency severe weather shocks”. week low, and short-dated gov- accommodative monetary policy leading to inappropriate monetary BoE position that all policy reforms introduced in Feb- “GDP growth in 2019 is ernment bond yields dropped stance for an extended period policy, and the cost of reversing a options would be open. ruary in a bid to solve a expected to be steeply neg- chronic monetary crisis. ative, as the effects of drought In June, inflation had on agricultural production and Barclays pays stood at 176 percent. electricity generation, impact The latest estimates are of cyclone Idai, and the signif- $6.3m to settle stoking fears of a return of the icant fiscal consolidation to kind of hyperinflation that correct past excesses serve to hiring probe wiped out savings 10 years ago drag on growth,” it said in a when the economy collapsed statement. REUTERS/NEW YORK and prices of goods and services It said that social condi- skyrocketed every week. tions had “deteriorated Barclays has agreed to pay Early last month Finance sharply”, with more than half about $6.3m to settle US Minister Mthuli Ncube said the of the country’s population charges it violated a federal government would stop pub- unlikely to be able to feed anti-bribery law by hiring lishing inflation figures until itself adequately between now family and friends of foreign February next year to allow and the next harvest season officials in the Asia-Pacific the statistics agency to collect in the first half of 2020. region to help win or retain fresh data using the new cur- “Weakening confidence, investment banking business. rency since prices were no policy uncertainty, a contin- The US Securities and longer pegged in US dollars. uation of FX market distor- Exchange Commission yes- The US dollar had been tions, and a recent expan- terday said the civil settlement the national currency since sionary monetary stance” had resolves charges that the British 2009 when the country increased pressure on the bank’s hiring practices in the trashed its own currency fol- exchange rate, it said. region, including China, Hong lowing hyperinflation of as President Emmerson Kong and South Korea, violated much as 500 billion percent. Mnangagwa, on taking over the Foreign Corrupt Practices But in June, Zimbabwe from Robert Mugabe, Act. ended the use of US dollars promised to revive the Without admitting or and other foreign currencies economy and declared Zim- denying wrongdoing, Barclays and replaced them by two babwe “open for business”. agreed to pay a $1.5m civil fine, local parallel currencies -- But nearly two years later, France 2020 budget plus $4.8m of disgorgement and “bond notes” and electronic the economy is floundering French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire (right) and Gerald Darmanin, French Minister of Public Action interest. A bank spokesman, RTGS dollars. and many Zimbabweans say and Accounts attend a news onferencec on 2020 budget at the ministry in Paris, France. Mark Lane, declined to After its two-week they are worse off than they comment. mission, the IMF team were under Mugabe. In counterweight to Wells Fargo Fed girding for repo trouble on names new China, EU, Japan sign chief executive Monday even as market calms

AFP BLOOMBERG may be more muted than some deal to link Asia NEW YORK NEW YORK are fearing. REUTERS across more than 60 countries, Trading in repurchase BRUSSELS known as the Belt and Road Initi- Wells Fargo yesterday named The repo market has calmed agreements suggests rates are ative, seeking a network of land Charles Scharf as its chief exec- down, but the Federal Reserve coming down. The overnight The European Union and Japan and sea links with Southeast Asia, utive, making good on a is gearing up its safeguards in rate for quarter-end is being signed an infrastructure deal yes- Central Asia, the Middle East, promise to appoint an outsider case turmoil resurfaces on quoted at approximately 2.85 terday to coordinate transport, Europe and Africa. “The sea route as it tries to pivot from a Monday. percent, down from about 3.25 energy and digital projects linking that leads to the Mediterranean number of scandals. Last week’s craziness was percent around 9 am yesterday, Europe and Asia, seeking an alter- and the Atlantic must be open,” he Scharf, who has been chief not the first time in recent according to traders familiar native to Chinese largesse that has added, referring to the need to executive of Bank of New York memory that US money markets with the transactions who asked raised suspicion in Brussels and prevent projects funded by Beijing Mellon, will move into the top have shown signs of stress. It’s to not be identified because they Tokyo. and its vast foreign exchange spot at Wells Fargo on October tended to happen around are not authorized to speak The accord, signed by Jap- reserves dominating transport 21. Prior to Mellon, Scharf quarter-end, most notably in publicly. anese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe routes.Juncker also vowed to help worked as chief executive at late December. York time, earlier than prior But that’s far above the and European Commission Pres- build infrastructure “without Visa and in senior roles at The third quarter ends morning actions. Both signal the current level of around 1.88 ident Jean-Claude Juncker, for- mountains of debt” or a reliance JPMorgan Chase. Monday. So, for the past two Fed is girding for rates to spike percent, according to ICAP malises Japan’s involvement in a “on a single country”. His top priorities will days, the New York Fed has run again. data. new EU-Asia “connectivity” plan That was a veiled reference include persuading the $100bn overnight repo opera- As of now, it appears that The overnight repo rate that is set to be backed by a to Chinese-financed projects that Federal Reserve to lift a cap tions -- bigger than the $75bn the New York Fed “was able to soared to a record high of 10 €60bn ($65.48bn) EU guarantee have sent debts in some central on its balance sheet growth daily liquidity injections that satiate primary dealer demand percent last week amid a fund, development banks and Asian and Balkan countries imposed after a number of began early last week -- plus for term funding at these rate funding crunch that drew private investors. soaring after they embarked on regulatory messes, especially separate 14-day operations. levels,” Jon Hill (pictured), a scrutiny to the size of the Fed’s “Whether it be a single road building bridges, roads and a fake accounts scandal in late Neither of Friday’s actions were strategist at BMO Capital balance sheet and fueled calls or a single port, when the EU and tunnels they could ill-afford. 2016 that was a factor in the fully subscribed and short-term Markets, wrote in a note. “The for the central bank to start Japan undertake something, we The EU and Japan also want departures of the last two lending rates are well below the question then becomes how injecting liquidity. are able to build sustainable, stricter environmental standards. CEOs. peak seen last week, a sign much of the reserve infusion The central bank responded rules-based connectivity from the EU officials said they are con- He also comes as large retail order has been restored for will be able to permeate through to the funding pressures, which Indo-Pacific to the Western cerned about what they see as a banks invest more heavily in now. markets and reach other appeared to be building around Balkans and Africa,” Abe told an Chinese investment model which mobile technology programs for But on Monday, that larger participants.” quarter-end, with three term EU-Asia forum in Brussels. lends to countries for projects they banking and payments that have $100bn size will be repeated Hill said that while there operations this week and a daily Since 2013, China has may not need, making them altered the role of bank and the overnight operation will may still be upward pressure on schedule of overnight actions launched construction projects reliant on China once under way. branches. run from 7:45 a.m. to 8 a.m. New short-term rates on Monday, it through October 10. SATURDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2019 BUSINESS 15

Weak data pulls US economy cools as euro to more than consumer spending two-year lows REUTERS LONDON misses forecasts The euro was pinned at more than two-year lows yesterday as a steady drip BLOOMBERG much the weakness will filter of negative economic data this week WASHINGTON through to the broader economy. sapped investor demand for the single The business-equipment currency while the dollar benefited from The US economy cooled in data reflect an escalation of tariff some quarter-end rebalancing flows. August as Americans spent less threats by President Donald Dismal business activity data from than projected and companies Trump in August, but September the euro area, especially powerhouse cut capital-equipment orders, figures will offer a fuller picture economy Germany at the start of the with below-forecast prices also of the impact of the duties that week, has pushed European bond yields adding to concerns that may went into effect September 1. lower across the board this week with support the case for further Nonresidential investment, concerns about a weak economy in Federal Reserve easing. Treasury which includes corporate outlays Britain also weighing. yields pared gains. for structures, contracted in the “We have had a steady drip of weak Consumer spending on second quarter for the first time data from the eurozone this week and goods and services, which since 2016. that is highlighting the differences accounts for about two-thirds of week’s September jobs report to “You’ve got this huge between the U.S. and Europe where the gross domestic product, show whether the labor-market dichotomy between the former is still showing signs of strength,” increased 0.1 percent from July, slowdown is deepening. At the domestic economy -- driven said Thu Lan Nguyen, an analyst at the smallest gain in six months, same time, solid income gains mainly by the consumer -- on Commerzbank. Commerce Department data and a still-healthy job market one side that’s doing well, and Against the greenback, the dollar held showed yesterday. The Fed’s should keep supporting con- then the piece of the economy firm at $1.0927, just above a May 2017 preferred underlying price gauge sumption and extend the record- that’s exposed to the global sit- low of $1.0904. rose 0.1 percent from July, long U.S. expansion in coming uation and to trade has really Versus a basket of its rivals, the missing the median 0.2 percent months, as wages and salaries taken it on the chin,” Stanley greenback pushed 0.1 percent higher to estimate, while the gain in posted the biggest increase since said. 99.21, its highest in more than three incomes matched projections. March. The core personal con- weeks. Sterling was the other big loser “The consumer is still in solid Last week, Fed officials cut sumption expenditures price in London trading after Bank of England shape and the quarter’s still the benchmark interest rate by index, which excludes food and policymaker Michael Saunders hinted at going to be good, but we were a quarter point for the second energy, increased 1.8 percent looser monetary policy if Brexit uncer- shaping up initially for a spec- time in two months to protect from August of last year, tainty remained prolonged against a tacular quarter, and I think we the economy from global matching estimates though the backdrop of disappointing global growth. probably need to temper expec- weakness and trade uncertainty. monthly figure was below The pound weakened 0.3 percent to tations a little bit,” said Stephen Central bankers’ quarterly fore- forecast. The annual gain was a new two-week low of $1.2285 yesterday Stanley (pictured), chief econ- casts signaled only a minority of the largest since January, as his comments raised expectations that omist at Amherst Pierpont Secu- officials saw the need to lower offering some comfort to policy the next move from the central bank rities. A separate Commerce borrowing costs further this makers, who view the core could be a rate cut. Department report showed year. gauge as a better indicator of Markets are also digesting the bookings for non-military capital The trend in non-military underlying price trends. impeachment probe launched into US goods excluding aircraft – a capital goods orders underscores The broader PCE price President Donald Trump and the latest proxy for business investment – how the US-China trade war and gauge, which the Fed officially headlines from the trade dispute between fell 0.2 percent, the weakest per- slowing growth abroad are targets for 2 percent inflation, the United States and China. formance in four months, com- weighing on American com- was unchanged from the prior A whistleblower report released on pared with forecasts for no panies. Policy uncertainty has month -- missing estimates for Thursday said Trump not only abused change. muddled supply chains and con- a gain -- and rose 1.4 percent his office in attempting to solicit Ukraine’s The data suggest growth tributed to delayed long-term from a year earlier, matching the interference in the 2020 U.S. election, continued to cool in the third investments in people and median projection in a but the White House tried to “lock down” quarter, adding focus to next capital. The question is how Bloomberg survey. evidence about it.

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GANAGANDHARVAN Ganagandharvan is a Indian Malayalam comedy film directed by Ramesh Pisharody and written by Pis- harody and Hari P. Nair. is playing a ‘gan- amela’ singer named Kalasadhan Ullas.