Currencies 9.20.19
Chart Menu Next 2 Pages: Click page # to jump to chart, click ‘Menu’ button to return to menu US Dollar Index (DXY) ------4-5 USD/MXN ------33 US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar --- 6-7 CAD VS. MXN ------34 DXY vs. Trade-Weighted Dollar ---- 8 USD/HKD ------35-36 DXY vs. Bloomberg Dollar Index --- 9 EUR/HKD ------37 EUR/USD ------10 Currency Volatility Indices ------38-41 GBP/USD ------11 MSCI EM Currency Index ------42 USD/CHF ------12 EM Ccy vs. MSCI Emerg. Mkts – 43 USD/JPY ------13 Asia Dollar Index vs. EEM ------44 GBP/JPY ------14 SPY/EEM VS. US Dollar ------45 GBP/CHF ------15 EM Bond Fund vs. US Dollar ----- 46 EUR/CHF ------16 Asia Currency Index ------47 GBP VS. EUR ------17 World CCY Performance Table -- 48 USD/CNY------18 EM Ccy’s: 1wk, 1mo, YTD return 49-51 AUD/USD ------19 Major Ccy: 1wk, 1mo, YTD return 52-54 USD/CAD ------20 EM CCYs Performance ------55-56 USD/TWD ------21 CFTC Spec CCY Data ------57 USD/KRW ------22 Net Spec US Dollar Bets ------58-62 USD/RUB------23 US Dollar vs. Fed Funds Rate --- 63 USD/NOK ------24 DXY vs. Dollar % Forex Reserves 64 USD/BRL ------25 DXY vs. Inflation Expectations --- 65 NZDUSD ------26 DXY vs. Gold ------66 NZD/JPY ------27 DXY vs. Crude Oil ------67 EUR/JPY ------28 CAD vs. W. Canada Crude Oil --- 68 CAD/EUR ------29 NOK vs. Brent Crude ------69 CAD/AUD ------30 RUB vs. Brent Crude ------70 AUD/EUR ------31 EM CCY Index vs. Brent Crude - 71 AUD/JPY ------32 09/20/19 Menu cont’d next page… Home 2 AUD/JPY vs. Copper ------72 Cryptocurrencies EUR vs. 10yr Bund-Tsy Spread --- 73 Crypto Performance Tables------98-99 JPY vs. 10yr Tsy – JGB Spread --- 74 Bitcoin ------100 JPY vs. Nikkei ------75 Bitcoin Cash ------101 Offshore vs. Onshore Yuan ------76 Ethereum ------102 CNY vs. CNY Mid-Rate Fix ------77 Litecoin ------103 USD/CNY vs. US Dollar Index --- 78 Ripple ------104 USD/CNY vs. US 10yr Yield ------79 EOS ------105 USD/CNY vs. USD/HKD ------80 Crypto Performance 2018-p ------106 Renminbi Basket vs. DXY ------81 Bitcoin Trust ------107 CNY/USD vs. EUR/USD ------82 Gold vs. Bitcoin ------108 CNY vs. Emerging Markets EEM – 83 Offshore Yuan vs. Bitcoin ------109 CNY vs. CRB Raw Industrials ----- 84 CFTC Spec Bitcoin data ------110-111 China RRR vs. CNY ------85 Bitcoin Spot vs. Bitcoin Futures ---- 112 US vs. China CPI Exch. Rates ----- 86 Crypto 10 vs. Galaxy Crypto ------113 DXY vs. DXY Risk Reversal ------87 Large vs. Mid-Cap Crypto ------114 10yr Yield, Gold vs. DXY Risk Rev. 88-89 Number of Bitcoins In Circulation – 115 EEM vs. DXY Risk Reversal ------90 Bitcoin Exchange Trade Volume --- 116 DXY vs. USD Positioning Indicator 91 Bitcoin Transactions Per Day ------117 Dollar Bull, Bear ETF Flows ------92-93 Bitcoin Market Cap. ------118 Share of Payments via SWIFT ------94 Bitcoin Mkt.Cap. vs Gold,Silver ETF 119 USD SWIFT vs. USD % ForEx Rsv. 95 Cost Per Bitcoin Transaction ------120 SPX Sales Growth vs. Trade Dollar 96 Average Transactions Per Block ---- 121 SPX Revenue vs. Trade Dollar ----- 97 Total Number of Blockchain Wallets 122
09/20/19 Menu1 3 Currencies
104 US Dollar (DXY) Index
100
96
Last: 98.462 92 1Wk Chg: +0.205 50DMA 98.037 100DMA 97.629 200DMA 97.154
88 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 4 Currencies
150 DXY Index Relative Strength (14 day) 107
US DOLLAR INDEX 130 97
110
Last: 52.90 87 90 1Wk Chg: +2.40
70 77
50
67 30
10 57 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 5 Currencies 134 US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar
129
124
119
114 Last: 130.11 1Wk Chg: -0.439 50DMA 129.50 100DMA 128.95 109 200DMA 128.15
Data thru: 9/13/19 104 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 6 Currencies
150 Trade-Weighted Dollar Relative Strength (14 day) 135
TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Last: 44.98 130 1Wk Chg: -7.32 125
110
115 90
70 105
50
95 30
data thru: 9/13/19 10 85 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 7 Currencies
US Dollar (DXY) Index vs. 106 US Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Index 132
103 Last: 98.46 129 Last: 130.11
100 126
97 123
94 120
91 117
sourc=bloomberg; weekly data 88 114 2015 2016 2017 2018
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 8 Currencies
US Dollar (DXY) Index vs. 100 1240 Bloomberg US Dollar (BBDXY) Index
98 1213
96
1186
94
1159
92
Last: 98.46 Last: 1,209.8 1132 90
88 1105 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 9 Currencies
150 EUR/USD Relative Strength (14 day) 1.42
1.32 130 Last: 44.16 1Wk Chg: -5.35 EURUSD 1.22 110
1.12 90
1.02
70 0.92
50 0.82
30 0.72
10 0.62 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 10 Currencies 150 GBP/USD Relative Strength (14 day) 1.8
1.7 130 1.6
110 1.5 GBPUSD 1.4 Last: 59.84 90 1Wk Chg: -5.85 1.3
1.2 70
1.1
50 1
0.9 30 0.8
10 0.7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 11 Currencies
150 USD/CHF Relative Strength (14 day) 1.05
130
0.95 110 USDCHF
Last: 53.76 90 1Wk Chg: -2.38 0.85
70
50 0.75
30
10 0.65 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 12 Currencies 170 USD/JPY Relative Strength (14 day) 130
150 120 USDJPY 130
110 110
90 Last: 53.25 100 1Wk Chg: -9.62
70 90
50
80 30
10 70 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 13 Currencies
170 GBP/JPY Relative Strength (14 day) 205
150 Last: 60.46 1Wk Chg: -9.34 180
130 GBPJPY 155 110
90 130
70 105
50
80 30
10 55 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 14 Currencies
170 GBP/CHF Relative Strength (14 day) 1.7
1.6 150 Last: 61.91 1Wk Chg: -5.55 1.5 130 GBPCHF 1.4
110 1.3
90 1.2
1.1 70
1.0 50 0.9
30 0.8
10 0.7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 15 Currencies
170 EUR/CHF Relative Strength (14 day) 1.3 160
150 Last: 48.59 EURCHF 140 1Wk Chg: -9.33 1.2 130 120 1.1 110 100 90 1.0 80 70 60 0.9 50 40
30 0.8 20 10 0 0.7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 16 Currencies 1.75 GBP vs. EUR
1.55
1.35
1.15
source=bloomberg; weekly data 0.95 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 17 Currencies
150 USD/CNY Relative Strength (14 day) 8
Last: 51.20 130 1Wk Chg: +2.96 USDCNY 7
110
7 90
70 6
50
6 30
10 5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 18 Currencies
170 AUD/USD Relative Strength (14 day) 1.0
150 Last: 39.60 0.9 1Wk Chg: -23.52 130
AUDUSD 0.8 110
90 0.7
70 0.6
50
0.5 30
10 0.4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 19 Currencies
170 USD/CAD Relative Strength (14 day) 1.5
150 USDCAD 1.4
130 1.3
110 1.2
Last: 52.17 90 1Wk Chg: -3.57 1.1
70 1
50 0.9
30 0.8
10 0.7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 20 Currencies
170 USD/TWD Relative Strength (14 day) 34
150
32 130 USDTWD
110 Last: 29.34 30 1Wk Chg: -0.05
90
28 70
50 26
30
10 24 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 21 Currencies
170 USD/KRW Relative Strength (14 day) 1250
150 USDKRW
130 1150
110
Last: 40.59 90 1Wk Chg: +1.58 1050
70
50 950
30
10 850 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 22 Currencies
170 USD/RUB Relative Strength (14 day) 90
150 75 USDRUB 130
60 110
Last: 34.06 90 1Wk Chg: -0.13 45
70 30
50
15 30
10 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 23 Currencies
170 USD/NOK Relative Strength (14 day) 9.5
150
8.4 130
USDNOK 110 7.3 Last: 60.64 1Wk Chg: +7.40 90
6.2 70
50 5.1
30
10 4.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 24 Currencies
170 USD/BRL Relative Strength (14 day) 4.5
150 USDBRL 4
130 3.5
110 3
90 Last: 59.76 1Wk Chg: +5.75 2.5 70
2 50
1.5 30
10 1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 25 Currencies
170 NZD/USD Relative Strength (14 day) 0.90
0.85 150 Last: 28.70 1Wk Chg: -13.12 0.80 130 NZDUSD 0.75
110 0.70
90 0.65
0.60 70
0.55 50 0.50
30 0.45
10 0.40 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 26 Currencies
170 NZD/JPY Relative Strength (14 day) 96
150 88
NZDJPY 130 80
110 72 Last: 35.49 1Wk Chg: 90 -18.34
64 70
56 50
48 30
10 40 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 27 Currencies
170 EUR/JPY Relative Strength (14 day) 150
150 140 EURJPY
130 130
110
Last: 48.54 120 1Wk Chg: -13.05 90
110 70
100 50
90 30
10 80 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 28 Currencies
CAD/EUR Relative Strength (14 day) 0.78
150 Last: 53.42 1Wk Chg: +7.82 0.73 130
CADEUR 110 0.68
90 0.63
70
0.58
50
0.53 30
10 0.48 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 29 Currencies
170 CAD/AUD Relative Strength (14 day) 1.15
150 CADAUD
130 1.05
110
Last: 90 57.95 0.95 1Wk Chg: +24.85
70
50 0.85
30
10 0.75 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 30 Currencies
170 AUD/EUR Relative Strength (14 day) 0.76
150 Last: 45.75 1Wk Chg: -15.39 0.71
130
AUDEUR 0.66 110
90 0.61
70 0.56
50
0.51 30
10 0.46 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 31 Currencies
170 AUD/JPY Relative Strength (14 day) 108
150 Last: 45.58 1Wk Chg: -20.45 98
130 AUDJPY 88
110 78
90
68 70
58 50
48 30
10 38 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 32 Currencies
170 USD/MXN Relative Strength (14 day) 24
150 USDMXN Last: 43.83 1Wk Chg: +3.41
130 19
110
90 14
70
50 9
30
10 4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 33 Currencies
1.40 USD/CAD vs. USD/MXN 23
22 Last: 1.326 Last: 19.45 1.35
21
1.30 20
19
1.25
18
*source=Bloomberg; daily data 1.20 17 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 34 Currencies
7.86 USD/HKD
Last: 7.8367 1Wk Chg: +0.0167
7.82
7.78
7.74 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 35 Currencies
USD/HKD vs. 7.87 3mo USD Libor minus 3mo HKD Hibor 1.4
1.2 7.85 Last: 7.8367 Last: -0.1111 1
7.83 0.8
7.81 0.6
0.4 7.79
0.2 7.77
0
7.75 -0.2
7.73 -0.4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 36 Currencies
12.8 EUR/HKD
11.9
11.0
10.1
9.2
Last: 8.635 1Wk Chg: 8.3 -0.025
7.4 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 37 Currencies
24 G-7 Currency Volatility Index
21 Last: 6.86 1Wk Chg: +0.09
18
15
12
9
6
*source=JPMorgan; calculations based on 3-month at-the-money forward option volumes 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 38 Currencies
13 Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index
Last: 6.88 1Wk %Chg: -0.3% 11
9
7
source=bloomberg; daily data 5 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 39 Currencies
35 Emerging Market Currency Volatility Index
Last: 8.23 1Wk Chg: +0.10 27
19
11
*source=JPMorgan; calculations based on 3-month at-the-money forward option volumes 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 40 Currencies
1.7 Emerging Market / G7 Currency Volatility Ratio
1.5 Last: 1.1997 1Wk Chg: -0.10%
1.3
1.1
0.9
source=bloomberg; weekly data 0.7 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 41 Currencies
1,800 MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
Last: 1,615.3 1,300 1Wk Chg: -5.68 50DMA 1619.1 100DMA 1624.8 200DMA 1631.4 1,200
*source=Bloomberg, MSCI; currency weights equal to relevant country weight in MSCI Emerging Market Index 1,100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 42 Currencies
1,780 MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 56 vs. MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
51 Last: 1,615.3 1,680 Last: 41.61
46
1,580 41
36
1,480
31
*source=Bloomberg, MSCI; currency weights equal to relevant country weight in MSCI Emerging Market Index 1,380 26 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 43 Currencies
122 Asia Dollar Index 60 vs. MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
51 116
42
110
33 Last: 103.1 Last: 41.61
104 24
*source=Bloomberg; weekly data 98 15 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 44 Currencies
S&P 500 relative to MSCI Emerging Markets 7.5 vs. US Dollar Index (DXY) 110
Last: 7.17 6.4 Last: 98.46 100
5.3
90
4.2
80 3.1
*source=Bloomberg; weekly data (SPY/EEM vs. DXY) 2.0 70 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 45 Currencies
US Dollar (DXY) Index (inverted) 87 vs. JP Morgan EM Local CCY Bond Fund (LEMB) 52
90 Last: 98.46 Last: 44.61
93 48
96
99 44
102
*weekly data 105 40 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 46 Currencies
122 Asia Currency Index
Last: 103.07 115 1Wk Chg: -0.37 50DMA 103.49 100DMA 104.09 200DMA 105.04
108
101
94
source=Bloomberg, JP Morgan; Weightings: CNY (41.8%), KRW (12.05%), HKD (10.19%), INR (7.35%), TWD (6.13%), SGD (6.02%), THB (5.28%), IDR (4.86%), MYR (4.49%), PHP (1.83%) 87 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 47 Currencies
Data for week ending: 09/20/19
% CHANGE % CHANGE 1WK 4WK 3MO 6MO 1YR 1WK 4WK 3MO 6MO 1YR PALLADIUM +1.96% +12.34% +9.18% +5.77% +56.03% PERUVIAN SOL -1.13% +0.49% -1.65% -1.81% -1.99% GOLD +1.91% -0.66% +8.38% +16.47% +26.40% S. AFRICAN RAND -2.36% +2.06% -4.03% -3.57% -4.12% SILVER +3.13% +3.25% +17.23% +17.68% +25.78% NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR -1.87% -2.30% -5.02% -8.59% -6.42% PLATINUM -0.24% +10.32% +16.84% +13.77% +14.29% CHINESE RENMINBI -0.17% +0.06% -3.13% -5.33% -3.30% TURKISH LIRA -1.00% +0.28% +1.29% -5.17% +9.55% MEXICAN PESO -0.23% +2.41% -1.66% -1.25% -3.18% JAPANESE YEN +0.50% -1.99% -0.23% +3.65% +4.67% DANISH KRONE -0.54% -1.27% -3.15% -2.77% -6.35% INDONESIAN RUPIAH -1.00% +1.24% +0.00% +0.78% +5.22% EURO -0.51% -1.14% -3.10% -2.73% -6.23% PHILIPPINE PESO -0.24% +0.72% -1.14% +1.21% +4.21% CHILEAN PESO -1.42% +0.28% -4.71% -6.65% -7.09% RUSSIAN RUBLE +0.58% +3.10% -1.64% +1.17% +3.72% BRITISH POUND -0.18% +1.73% -2.03% -6.11% -4.54% HONG KONG DOLLAR -0.21% +0.07% -0.29% +0.16% -0.33% AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR -1.64% +0.15% -2.31% -4.50% -7.19% INDIAN RUPEE -0.19% +0.94% -2.24% -3.12% +1.49% THAI BAHT +0.04% -0.83% -1.27% -3.87% -5.93% SINGAPORE DOLLAR -0.29% +0.72% -1.59% -1.79% -0.94% POLISH ZLOTY -1.64% -0.87% -5.72% -4.29% -7.66% CANADIAN DOLLAR +0.17% +0.15% -0.30% +0.56% -2.62% SWEDISH KRONA -0.96% -1.03% -3.59% -4.86% -9.41% TAIWAN DOLLAR -0.18% +1.43% -0.13% -0.41% -1.10% S. KOREAN WON -1.22% +1.63% -2.93% -4.89% -6.63% MALAYSIAN RINGGIT -0.17% +0.38% -0.91% -2.00% -0.99% NORWEGIAN KRONE -0.81% -1.34% -6.20% -5.88% -10.02% SWISS FRANC -0.07% -1.65% -1.45% +1.13% -3.25% ICELAND KRONA +0.04% -0.30% -0.01% -5.63% -11.52% BRAZIL REAL -1.47% -0.58% -7.84% -8.01% -2.39% ARGENTINE PESO -1.12% -2.76% -24.79% -29.60% -34.57%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 48 Currencies
Emerging Market Currencies: 1-Week Spot Return
Russian Ruble +0.48% Taiwanese Dollar +0.25% South Korean Won +0.23% Philippine Peso +0.01% Indian Rupee -0.02% Thai Baht -0.04% Malaysian Ringgit -0.08% Chinese Renminbi -0.17% Hong Kong Dollar -0.23% Mexican Peso -0.25% Singapore Dollar -0.30% Bulgarian Lev -0.51% Czech Koruna -0.54% Indonesian Rupiah -0.64% Romanian Leu -0.87% Turkish Lira -0.92% Argentine Peso -0.96% Peruvian Sol -1.15% Chilean Peso -1.18% Hungarian Forint -1.20% Colombian Peso -1.54% Brazilian Real -1.57% Polish Zloty -1.65% South African Rand -2.36% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 49 Currencies
Emerging Market Currencies: 1-Month Spot Return Russian Ruble +3.92% South African Rand +2.91% South Korean Won +1.70% Mexican Peso +1.62% Indonesian Rupiah +1.52% Taiwanese Dollar +1.40% Thai Baht +1.15% Indian Rupee +1.08% Peruvian Sol +0.77% Philippine Peso +0.64% Singapore Dollar +0.54% Malaysian Ringgit +0.38% Hong Kong Dollar +0.06% Turkish Lira -0.14% Colombian Peso -0.21% Chinese Renminbi -0.44% Chilean Peso -0.70% Bulgarian Lev -0.73% Czech Koruna -1.00% Polish Zloty -1.17% Romanian Leu -1.22% Brazilian Real -2.34% Hungarian Forint -2.57% Argentine Peso -3.42% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 50 Currencies
Emerging Market Currencies: YTD Spot Return
Russian Ruble +8.87% Thai Baht +6.85% Indonesian Rupiah +2.38% Philippine Peso +1.19% Mexican Peso +1.01% Peruvian Sol +0.28% Hong Kong Dollar -0.08% Malaysian Ringgit -0.82% Taiwanese Dollar -0.83% Singapore Dollar -1.05% Indian Rupee -1.65% Chinese Renminbi -3.00% Chilean Peso -3.08% Bulgarian Lev -3.85% South African Rand -3.92% Czech Koruna -4.41% Colombian Peso -4.87% Romanian Leu -5.87% Polish Zloty -5.88% South Korean Won -6.08% Brazilian Real -6.69% Hungarian Forint -7.55% Turkish Lira -7.84% Argentine Peso -33.52% -40% -32% -24% -16% -8% 0% 8% 16%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 51 Currencies
Major Currencies: 1-Week Spot Return
Japanese Yen +0.46%
Taiwanese Dollar +0.25%
South Korean Won +0.23%
Canadian Dollar +0.07%
Swiss Franc -0.07%
British Pound -0.21%
Mexican Peso -0.25%
Singapore Dollar -0.30%
Euro -0.50%
Danish Krone -0.51%
Norwegian Krone -0.87%
Swedish Krona -1.10%
Brazilian Real -1.58%
Australian Dollar -1.66%
New Zealand Dollar -1.87%
South African Rand -2.37%
-3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 52 Currencies
Major Currencies: 1-Month Spot Return
South African Rand +2.89%
British Pound +2.50%
South Korean Won +1.70%
Mexican Peso +1.62%
Taiwanese Dollar +1.40%
Singapore Dollar +0.54%
Canadian Dollar +0.30%
Australian Dollar -0.19%
Swedish Krona -0.24%
Euro -0.74%
Danish Krone -0.90%
Norwegian Krone -0.92%
Japanese Yen -1.27%
Swiss Franc -1.32%
Brazilian Real -2.32%
New Zealand Dollar -2.46%
-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 53 Currencies
Major Currencies: YTD Spot Return
Canadian Dollar +2.70%
Japanese Yen +1.94%
Mexican Peso +1.01%
Taiwanese Dollar -0.83%
Swiss Franc -0.91%
Singapore Dollar -1.05%
British Pound -2.19%
Euro -3.92%
South African Rand -3.92%
Danish Krone -3.93%
Australian Dollar -4.03%
Norwegian Krone -4.69%
South Korean Won -6.08%
Brazilian Real -6.71%
New Zealand Dollar -6.86%
Swedish Krona -8.89%
-12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 54 Currencies
120 Emerging Market Currencies vs. USD (2013=100) TWD KRW THB PLN RUB ZAR BRL INR TRY MXN
100
80
60
40
source=bloomberg; weekly data 20 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 55 Currencies -Indonesian Rupiah -Malaysian Ringgit -Indian Rupee 130 2015=100
124
118
112
106
100
source=bloomberg; weekly data 94 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 56 Currencies
CFTC Non-Commercial Currency Data
*COT: Non-Commercial Data* Gross Positions Net Positions Spot OI OI Longs Shorts Contracts (000s) Net as CURNCY Rate $bn Chng $bn $bln Chng $bn $bln Chng $bn $bln Chng $bn Level Change % OI
EUR 1.107 69.66 -11.109 22.74 -2.183 32.23 +0.426 -9.49 -2.609 -68.56 -18.72 -13.6%
JPY 108.13 15.14 -2.461 5.88 -0.699 3.12 +0.331 2.76 -1.030 23.86 -8.73 18.2%
GBP 1.250 18.02 -3.840 1.67 -1.259 8.40 -1.650 -6.73 +0.391 -86.12 +6.11 -37.3%
CHF 1.007 6.61 -1.478 1.90 -0.123 2.48 +0.086 -0.57 -0.209 -4.56 -1.66 -8.7%
CAD 1.324 14.18 +0.259 4.68 +0.501 3.18 -0.119 1.50 +0.620 19.82 +8.30 10.6%
AUD 0.687 9.48 -3.033 2.37 -0.165 5.13 -1.050 -2.75 +0.885 -40.08 +12.93 -29.0%
MXN 19.36 4.85 -0.198 3.50 +0.247 1.39 +0.592 2.11 -0.345 81.63 -14.01 43.4%
NZD 0.636 4.35 -0.350 1.01 -0.439 3.30 -0.061 -2.29 -0.378 -36.04 -6.25 -52.7%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 57 Currencies
Net Speculative US Dollar Bets* (# of contracts) 500,000 vs. Bloomberg Dollar Index 1350
Last: 110,053 Chng: +22,033
Last: 1209.8 1260 250,000
1170
0
1080
-250,000 990
source=Bloomberg, CFTC (weekly data); *Dollar sentiment is inverse of cumulative net spec positions for: EUR + JPY + GBP + CHF + CAD + AUD + NZD + MXN -500,000 900 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 58 Currencies
60 Net Speculative US Dollar Bets* ($bln) --Cumulative vs. --Excluding Euro FX
40
20
0
-20 Last: $15.47 1Wk Chg: +2.67
Last: $5.98 -40 1WK Chg: +0.07
source=CFTC; *inverse of cumulative net spec positions for: EUR+JPY+GBP+CHF+CAD+AUD+MXN+NZD -60 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 59 Currencies
US Dollar Net Spec Bet ($bln) 60 --Level --1Wk Change 30
Last: 15.47 Last: +2.67 40 20
20 10
0 0
-20 -10
-40 -20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 60 Currencies
Net Spec Bets: US Dollar ($bln) 40 105 vs. US Dollar (DXY) Index
103
101 20
99
97 0 95
93 Last: 15.47 -20 Last: 98.46 91
89 source=Bloomberg, CFTC (weekly data); *Net Dollar bet is inverse of cumulative net spec positions for: EUR + JPY + GBP + CHF + CAD + AUD + NZD + MXN -40 87 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 61 Currencies
Net Spec Bets: US Dollar minus Gold ($bln) 60 vs. Bloomberg Dollar Index 1300
Last: -26.96 1250 40 Last: 1209.8
1200 20
1150 0
1100
-20 1050 Gold Bullish / -40 Dollar Bearish Sentiment 1000
-60 950
source=Bloomberg, CFTC (weekly data); *Net Dollar bet is inverse of cumulative net spec positions for: EUR + JPY + GBP + CHF + CAD + AUD + NZD + MXN -80 900 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 62 Currencies
US Dollar (DXY) Index 104 0.5 vs. Fed Funds Rate (inverted)
0.7
Last: 98.46 0.9 Last: 1.90% 98 1.1
1.3
92 1.5
1.7
1.9 86 2.1
2.3
80 2.5 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 63 Currencies
US Dollar (DXY) Index vs. 105 US Dollar as % Global Forex Reserves 67
66 99 Last: 98.46 Last: 61.8%
65 93
64
87
63
81 62
75 61
*Monthly data Forex Reserve data source= IMF: quarterly data (pulled in as monthly) thru: 03/29/19 69 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 64 Currencies
106 DXY Index vs. 5y5y Breakeven Inflation Rate (inverted) 1.3
99
1.8
92
2.3
85
source=bloomberg; daily data 78 2.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 65 Currencies
105 US Dollar (DXY) Index vs. Gold ($/oz, inverted) 900
Last: 98.46 100 Last: 1,516.9 1100
95
1300
90
1500
85
1700 80
QE3 *weekly data 75 1900 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 66 Currencies
105 US Dollar (DXY) Index vs. Crude Oil ($/bbl, inverted) 10
100 Last: 98.46 30 Last: 58.09
95 50
90 70
85 90
80 110
*weekly data; *Generic 1st Crude Oil contract 75 130 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 67 Currencies
USD/CAD (inverted) vs. 1.12 Western Canada Select Crude Oil Spot Price ($/bbl) 59
54
1.18 Last: 1.326 Last: 45.39 49
44 1.24
39
1.30 34
29
1.36 24
19 1.42
14
*weekly data 1.48 9 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 68 Currencies
5.0 USD/NOK (inverted) vs. Brent Crude ($/bbl) 140
120 5.9
100
6.8
80
7.7 Last: 9.062 Last: 64.77 60
8.6 40
*weekly data; *Generic 1st Brent Crude contract 9.5 20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 69 Currencies
25 USD/RUB (inverted) vs. Brent Crude ($/bbl) 135
35
105
45
55 75
Last: 64.01 Last: 64.77 65
45
75
*weekly data; *Generic 1st Brent Crude contract 85 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 70 Currencies JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index 100 vs. Brent Crude ($/bbl) 130
91 100
82
70
73
40 64
source=bloomberg; weekly data 55 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 71 Currencies
105 AUD/JPY vs. Copper ($/lb) 3.5
3.32 Last: 72.776 Last: 2.59 98 3.14
2.96
91 2.78
2.6
84 2.42
2.24
77 2.06
1.88
*weekly data 70 1.7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 72 Currencies
1.5 EUR/USD vs. 10yr Bund-Treasury Spread 0.5
0 1.4
-0.5 1.3
-1
1.2
-1.5
Last: 1.1 1.1017 Last: -2.246 -2
1.0 -2.5
*weekly data 0.9 -3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 73 Currencies
130 USD/JPY vs. 10yr Treasury-JGB Spread 3.6
Last: 107.56 3 Last: 1.937
115
2.4
100 1.8
1.2
85
0.6
*weekly data 70 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 74 Currencies
140 USD/JPY vs. Nikkei 26000
Last: 107.56 Last: 22079.1 126 22000
112 18000
98 14000
84 10000
*weekly data 70 6000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 75 Currencies
7.3 Offshore Yuan vs. Onshore Yuan 0.16 --Gap
Last: 7.1243 7.1 Last: 7.0916 0.12 Gap: 0.0327
6.9 0.08
6.7 0.04
6.5 0
sourc=bloomberg; daily data 6.3 -0.04 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 76 Currencies
7.3 USD/CNY vs. USD/CNY Mid-Rate Fix 0.36 --Gap
Last: 7.0916 7.1 Last: 7.0730 Gap: 0.0186 0.24
6.9
0.12
6.7
0 6.5
source=bloomberg; daily data 6.3 -0.12 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 77 Currencies
7.2 USD/CNY vs. US Dollar (DXY) Index 110
Last: 7.0916 1Wk Chg: +0.0123
6.9 Last: 98.462 102 1Wk Chg: +0.205
6.6 94
6.3 86
6.0 78 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 78 Currencies
3.5 US 10yr Yield vs. USD/CNY 7.5
7.3 Last: 1.723 Last: 7.092
7.1 2.8
6.9
6.7
2.1 6.5
6.3
*Daily data 1.4 6.1 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 79 Currencies
7.86 USD/HKD vs. USD/CNY 8.2
7.7
7.83
7.2
6.7
7.80
Last: 7.8367 6.2 Last: 7.0916
7.77 5.7 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 80 Currencies
108 Renminbi Basket vs. US Dollar (DXY) Index 105
100 104
95
100
90
96 Last: 90.19 Last: 98.46 85
92 source=Bloomberg 80
Jan. 1, 2017: addition of 11 currencies to RMB basket drops US weighting to 22.4% from 26.4% 88 75 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 81 Currencies
0.162 CNY/USD vs. EUR/USD 1.28
0.157 1.21
0.152
1.14
0.147
1.07 0.142
source=bloomberg; weekly data 0.137 1 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 82 Currencies
6.2 Yuan (inverted) vs. Emerging Markets (EEM) 53.5
50.5 6.4
47.5
6.6
44.5
6.8
41.5
7.0 38.5
source=bloomberg; weekly data (Onshore Yuan CNY, iShares MSCI Emerging Mkts. ETF) 7.2 35.5 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 83 Currencies 6.2 Yuan (inverted) vs. CRB Spot Raw Industrials Index 540
6.4 518
6.6 496
6.8 474
7.0 452
source=bloomberg; weekly data (Onshore Yuan CNY) 7.2 430 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 84 Currencies
24 China RRR vs. USD/CNY (inverted) 5.8
6.3
18
6.8
7.3
12
7.8
source=bloomberg, People's Bank of China (required deposit reserve ratio for major banks); weekly data 6 8.3 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 85 Currencies 109 CPI-Based Broad Effective Exchange Rates (5.9.17=100) --US --China
106
103
100
97
94
source=bloomberg, JP Morgan; daily data 91 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 86 Currencies
US Dollar (DXY) Index vs. 100 US Dollar (DXY) Index 3-Month Risk Reversal 1.25
1 98 Last: 98.46 Last: -0.0017 0.75 96
0.5 94
0.25
92 0
90 -0.25 Dollar Bearish
88 -0.5
86 -0.75 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 87 Currencies
US 10yr Yield vs. 3.5 US Dollar (DXY) Index 3-Month Risk Reversal 1
Last: 1.723 0.75 Last: -0.0017
0.5 2.8
0.25
0
2.1 Dollar Bearish -0.25
-0.5
1.4 -0.75 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 88 Currencies
Gold ($/oz) vs. 1,570 US Dollar (DXY) Index 3mo Risk Reversal (inverted) -1
-0.8 Last: 1,516.9 1,480 Last: -0.0017 -0.6
-0.4
1,390 -0.2
0
1,300 0.2
0.4
1,210 0.6
0.8
1,120 1 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 89 Currencies
Emerging Markets (EEM, inverted) vs. 36 US Dollar (DXY) Index 3-Month Risk Reversal 1.1
0.88 39 Last: 41.61 Last: -0.0017 0.66
42 0.44
45 0.22
0 48
Dollar Bearish -0.22
51 -0.44
54 -0.66 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 90 Currencies DXY Index vs. 103 Citi USD FX Positioning Alert Indicator (PAIN) 90
60 99
30
95
0
91 -30
source=bloomberg; weekly data 87 -60 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 91 Currencies
US Dollar Bullish (UUP) Fund Flows ($mln):
120 12-Week 1-Week 150
Last: -21.45 125 Last: -53.67 60 100
0 75
50 -60 25
-120 0
-25 -180 -50
*dailly data thru: 09/19/19 -240 -75 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 92 US Dollar Bearish (UDN) Fund Flows ($mln): 20 12-Week 1-Week 90
Last: +4.20 Last: 0.00 10
60
0
-10 30
-20
0
-30
*dailly data thru: 09/19/19 -40 -30 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 93 Currencies
Share of Payments via SWIFT (Top 8) 50 Left Scale: -USD -EUR Rt Scale: -GBP -JPY -CNY -CAD -AUD -CHF 20
18
40 16
14
30 12
10
20 8
USD: 40.01% CNY: 2.22% 1.50% 6 EUR: 33.93% HKD: data thru: 07/31/19 GBP: 6.98% CAD: 1.82% AUD: 1.62% 10 JPY: 3.63% 4
2
source=Society For Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 94 Currencies
48 Share of SWIFT Payments in USD vs. 67 US Dollar as % Global Forex Reserves
66 Last: 40.01% Last: 61.8% 42 65
64
36
63
62 30
61
*SWIFT data monthly thru: 07/31/19 Forex Reserve data source= IMF: quarterly data (pulled in as monthly) thru: 03/29/19 24 60 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 95 Currencies
S&P 500 Sales Growth Y/Y vs. 20 US Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Y/Y (6mo lead, inverted) -15
-10
10 -5
0
0
5
10 -10
15
source=Bloomberg, Federal Reserve; monthly data -20 20 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 96 Currencies
-16 US Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar y/y (inverted) vs. 15 S&P 500 Revenue Per Share y/y (8mo lag)
10 -8
5
0
0
8
-5
16 -10
source=bloomberg; weekly data 24 -15 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 97 Currencies
Data for week ending: 09/20/19
% CHANGE 1WK 4WK 3MO 6MO 1YR
BITCOIN -1.31% -2.18% +1.97% +160.07% +51.09%
BITCOIN CASH +4.92% +0.18% -27.98% +118.60% -36.94%
DASH +6.65% +2.96% -41.14% +7.06% -52.73%
EOS +4.84% +6.58% -44.22% +4.34% -35.37%
ETHEREUM +19.55% +12.23% -26.39% +59.23% -10.78%
ETHEREUM CLASSIC +0.16% -10.24% -28.65% +38.75% -46.44%
LITECOIN +9.11% -0.94% -46.00% +27.61% +23.25%
MONERO -1.60% -11.67% -31.92% +39.44% -40.53%
XRP +13.66% +4.97% -34.37% -7.60% -45.20%
ZCASH +9.74% -4.27% -55.41% -8.74% -61.06%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 98 Currencies CRYPTO MARKET CAP (TOP 25 COINS) (all data from coinmarketcap.com) MARKET CAP 7-DAY CHANGE Bitcoin $182,214,300,137 -1.5% Ethereum $23,358,084,835 +20.2% XRP $12,517,517,059 +13.8% Bitcoin Cash $5,628,985,269 +4.9% Litecoin $4,711,258,240 +8.6% Tether $4,115,740,072 -0.1% EOS $3,643,588,311 +5.2% Binance Coin $3,319,417,435 +2.3% Bitcoin SV $2,195,769,277 +4.1% Stellar $1,468,772,590 +27.4% Cardano $1,329,224,640 +12.3% Monero $1,258,523,961 -2.1% TRON $1,146,047,872 +11.8% UNUS SED LEO $1,083,668,487 +2.5% Huobi Token $1,004,056,088 +0.9% Dash $874,066,728 +5.0% IOTA $858,571,276 +27.9% Tezos $699,119,338 +8.7% Ethereum Classic $696,837,718 -0.4% NEO $667,003,721 +5.6% Chainlink $628,004,952 +13.9% Cosmos $589,645,237 -0.9% Maker $544,170,621 +19.6% Ontology $437,652,143 +9.6% NEM $415,356,993 +5.6%
TOTAL: $255,405,383,000 +1.93%
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 99 Currencies
20,000 Bitcoin
Last: 10,135.9 1Wk Chg: -134.7 16,000 50DMA 10,378.3 100DMA 9,701.7 200DMA 6,902.1
%Change 12,000 5-day -1.3% 30-day -14.6% 90-day 42.6%
8,000
4,000
0 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 100 Currencies
1,800 Bitcoin Cash
Last: 312.2 1,500 1Wk Chg: +14.7 50DMA 310.4 100DMA 353.7 200DMA n/a
1,200
%Change 5-day +4.9% 30-day -0.2% 900 90-day -12.7%
600
300
0 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 101 Currencies
1,000 Ethereum
Last: 216.3 1Wk Chg: +35.4 50DMA 200.4 100DMA 228.8 750 200DMA n/a
%Change 5-day +19.5% 30-day +3.4% 500 90-day -7.3%
250
0 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 102 Currencies
250 Litecoin
Last: 74.35 1Wk Chg: +6.21 200 50DMA 80.5 %Change 100DMA 95.4 5-day +9.1% 200DMA n/a 30-day -12.0% 90-day -14.3%
150
100
50
0 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 103 Currencies
1.2 Ripple
Last: 0.2895 1Wk Chg: +0.035 1.0 50DMA 0.287 %Change 100DMA 0.341 5-day +13.7% 200DMA n/a 30-day -1.2% 90-day -21.9%
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 104 Currencies
20 EOS
16 Last: 5.7300 1Wk Chg: +0.280 50DMA 6.234 100DMA 9.307
12 %Change 5-day +5.1% 30-day +2.1% 90-day -67.6%
8
4
0 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 105 Currencies
75 Crypto Performance June 2018 - Present
50 Bitcoin +34.5% Ripple -52.8% Litecoin -37.6% Ethereum -62.7% 25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100 6/1/18 8/1/18 10/1/18 12/1/18 2/1/19 4/1/19 6/1/19 8/1/19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 106 Currencies
40 Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) 600
32 Last: 12.8 1Wk Chg: +0.21 500
24 400
16
300
8
Net Asset Value: 9.939 200 0 Premium to NAV: 28.8%
100 -8
-16 0 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 107 Currencies
20,000 Gold vs. Bitcoin 1600
Last: 1,516.9 Last: 16,000 10,135.9 1500
12,000 1400
8,000 1300
4,000 1200
0 1100 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 108 Currencies
7.4 Offshore Yuan vs. Bitcoin 14000
12000
7.0 10000
8000
6.6 6000
4000
source=bloomberg; daily data 6.2 2000 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 109 Currencies
5,600 Bitcoin: Non-Commercial --Longs --Shorts # of contracts, futures only
4,800 Last: 2,502 Change: +55
Last: 3,572 4,000 Change: +174
3,200
2,400
1,600
800 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 110 Currencies
Bitcoin: Net Non-Commercial Position 0 # of contracts, futures only
-300
-600
-900 Last: -1,070 Change: -119
-1,200
-1,500 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 111 Currencies
14,000 Bitcoin Spot vs. Bitcoin Futures 12000
12,000 9000 Last: 10,180.0 Last: 10,135.9 10,000
6000 8,000
6,000 3000 Futures Premium: 44.06
4,000
0 2,000
*Generic 1st Bitcoin Futures 0 -3000 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 112 Currencies
12,000 Crypto Market 10 Index vs. Galaxy Crypto Index 1350
Last: 6,223.3 9,800 1wk %Chg: +2.7% 1090 Last: 433.42 1wk %Chg: +10.32%
7,600 830
5,400 570
3,200 310
*BBG Galaxy Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, EOS); Crypto 10 (top 10 cryptos) 1,000 50 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 113 Currencies
75,000 Bitwise Indices --Large-Cap Crypto 10 --Mid-Cap Crypto 20
50,000
25,000
source=bloomberg; weekly data 0 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 114 Currencies
18,100 Total Number Of Bitcoins In Circulation (000s)
Last: 17,946.0 17,700 30day Chng: +58.20
17,300
16,900
source=blockchain.com 16,500 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 115 Currencies
Bitcion US Exchange Trade Volume 25,000 (10-day sum $Mln)
20,000 Last: 992.8 30day Chg: -42.66%
15,000
10,000
5,000
source=blockchain.com 0 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 116 Currencies
500,000 Total Number Of Bitcoin Transactions Per Day
Last: 346,110 400,000 30day Chg: +3.84%
30-day average: 327,719
300,000
200,000
source=blockchain.com 100,000 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 117 Currencies
350,000 Bitcion Market Cap. ($Mln)
Last: 179,395.0 270,000 7day Chg: -2.02% 30day Chg: -6.68%
190,000
110,000
source=blockchain.com 30,000 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 118 Currencies
4.0 Bitcoin Market Cap. relative to Value of Total Known Gold + Silver ETF Holdings
3.5
3.0
Last: 1.39
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
source=bloomberg, coinmarketcap.com 0.0 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 119 Currencies
180 Cost Per Bitcoin Transaction ($) (miner revenue divided by # of transactions)
150
Last: 54.49 30day Chg: -13.74% 120
90
60
30
source=blockchain.com 0 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 120 Currencies
3,000 Average Transactions Per Block
Last: 2,339 30day Chg: +7.35% 2,400
30-day average: 2,122
1,800
1,200
source=blockchain.com 600 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
09/20/19 Meridian Macro Research LLC Tel: 212-679-0094 [email protected] Menu 121 Currencies
45,000 Total Number Of Blockchain Wallet Users (thousand)
36,000 Last: 42,097.5 30day Chng: +747.4
27,000
18,000
9,000
source=blockchain.com 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
© 2019 Meridian Macro Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. The information and data contained herein is assumed to be accurate, but is not Menu guaranteed. Specific reference to any specific security should never be construed as a solicitation to either buy or sell. The charts and commentary 122 released under its banner may not be reproduced, forwarded or referenced without the express consent of Meridian Macro Research LLC.