Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Black-footed Rock-wallaby Petrogale lateralis
Key Findings Predation by foxes and feral cats has fragmented and contracted the range of Black-footed Rock-wallabies to isolated rocky habitats across inland Australia, parts of coastal WA and SA, and some islands. Other ongoing threats include habitat degradation, competition with introduced herbivores and fire. Effective control of introduced predators is helping to recover Black- footed Rock-wallabies in a number of locations. Photo: Tony Howard Significant trajectory change from 2005-15 to 2015-18? No, over these time periods populations appear generally stable across range.
Priority future action • Ongoing, long term control of feral predators and introduced herbivores Full assessment information Background information 2018 population trajectory assessment
1. Conservation status and taxonomy 8. Expert elicitation for population trends 2. Conservation history and prospects 9. Immediate priorities from 2019 3. Past and current trends 10. Contributors 4. Key threats 11. Legislative documents 5. Past and current management 12. References 6. Support from the Australian Government 13. Citation 7. Measuring progress towards conservation
The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, including estimating the change in population trajectory of 20 mammal species. It has been prepared by experts from the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub, with input from a number of taxon experts, a range of stakeholders and staff from the Office of the Threatened Species Commissioner, for the information of the Australian Government and is non-statutory. It has been informed by statutory planning documents that guide recovery of the species, such as Recovery Plans and/or Conservation Advices (see Section 11). The descriptive information in this scorecard draws on the recovery plan (Pearson 2013), conservation advices (for P. lateralis lateralis and P. l. pearsoni, and information provided by contributing experts.
The background information aims to provide context for estimation of progress in research and management (Section 7) and estimation of population size and trajectories (Section 8).
This species comprises five recognised subspecies, with varying distributions, population sizes, threats, management priorities and conservation status. This makes for some challenges in compiling an overall scorecard for the species. Nonetheless, under the Threatened Species Strategy, the species as a whole (rather than the individual subspecies) is the entity listed as a priority species, so that treatment is followed here. Furthermore, there are some self-evident commonalities in ecology, threats and management across subspecies, and opportunities to apply management lessons from one subspecies to another.
1 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
1. Conservation status and taxonomy
Conservation status 2018
Whole species (P. lateralis) not listed; P. l. lateralis is Endangered; EPBC P. l. hacketti, P. l. (MacDonnell Ranges) and P. l. (West Kimberley) are Vulnerable; P. l. pearsoni was delisted in 2010.
Whole species (P. lateralis) not listed; WA P. l. lateralis and P. l. (West Kimberley) are Endangered, P. l. hacketti, P. l. (MacDonnell Ranges) are Vulnerable.
NT Near Threatened
Whole species (P. lateralis) not listed; SA P. l. (MacDonnell Ranges) is Endangered and P. l. pearsoni is Rare
Taxonomy: The formerly widespread P. lateralis shows local and considerable regional genetic variation. Eldridge et al. (1991) recognised three subspecies and two “races”, based on chromosome morphology and allozyme banding. The Black-footed Rock-wallaby has a fragmented range in rocky habitats in inland Australia and parts of coastal Western Australia and South Australia. Within this range, many subpopulations have been extirpated. The three described and two undescribed subspecies have disjunct ranges: P. l. lateralis (Black-flanked Rock-wallaby) was formerly widespread across Western Australia south of the Kimberley, but is now restricted to isolated subpopulations in Western Australia (extending from south-west to Cape Range and surrounds, Karlamilyi NP and surrounds, a translocated population at Jilikurru, and Barrow and Salisbury Islands); P. l. hacketti (Recherche Rock-wallaby) is restricted to three islands (Mondrian, Westall and Wilson; with a combined area of only 9.7 km2) in the Archipelago of the Recherche, southern Western Australia; P. l. pearsoni (Pearson Island Rock-wallaby) historically occurred only on northern Pearson Island, but has been translocated also to southern Pearson, Thistle and Wedge Islands (with a total area of 53 km2), South Australia; P. l. undescribed MacDonnell Ranges subspecies (‘warru’) occurs patchily in arid areas of South Australia, Northern Territory and Western Australia; and P. l. undescribed West Kimberley subspecies (‘wiliji’) occurs across several ranges of the West Kimberley.
2 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
2. Conservation history and prospects Many mainland subpopulations of Black-footed Rock-wallaby have been extirpated, mostly due to predation by foxes and feral cats (Kinnear et al. 1988; Kinnear et al. 1998; Kinnear et al. 2010; Ward et al. 2011; Woinarski et al. 2014). Intensive and sustained control of foxes and feral cats at some sites has led to some stability or increase in some subpopulations (Kinnear et al. 2010; Read et al. 2018), and there have been many successful translocations, particularly for P. l. lateralis. In contrast, most island subpopulations have been stable, with the notable exception of that on Depuch Island, Western Australia, which was extirpated after fox incursion. Translocations to previously-unoccupied (and fox- and cat-free) islands have increased the population size and range for P. l. pearsoni. With effective control of introduced predators, fire and introduced competitors, populations are likely to be stable or have the potential to increase (especially with further translocations). Without such effective management, many mainland populations are likely to experience ongoing declines. Four subspecies are listed under the EPBC Act: P. l. lateralis is Endangered; P. l. hacketti, P. l. (MacDonnell Ranges) and P. l. (West Kimberley) are Vulnerable. Petrogale l. pearsoni was de-listed from Vulnerable in 2010.
3. Past and current trends Many mainland subpopulations and one island subpopulation have been extirpated, mostly due to introduced predators. Many extant subpopulations for which there is no management of predators are likely to continue to decline. However, effective predator management has led to stability or increase in some subpopulations, and translocations (to cat- and fox-free islands and mainland sites at which introduced predators are effectively controlled) have succeeded in establishing (or re-establishing) some new subpopulations.
Monitoring (existing programs): Many Black-footed Rock-wallaby populations are monitored, with some of these monitoring projects having now been undertaken for decades. The monitoring information presented here is informed by contributing experts, agencies and organisations and – given the number of rock-wallaby populations and landholders and agencies involved in their management – is indicative rather than fully comprehensive.
Petrogale lateralis lateralis • In the WA wheatbelt region (including Mt Caroline, Mt Stirling, Nangeen Hill, Sales, Gundaring), monitoring through mark-recapture, camera monitoring and scat counts has been undertaken intermittently over more than two decades, by WA DBCA & WWF • At Kalbarri, Cape Range, Cape le Grand and other sites, through radio-tracking and/or camera monitoring, by WA DBCA & WWF • In Western Desert, monitoring and survey, including for the recently translocated population at Jilikurru, by WA DBCA and, Martu rangers • At Paruna, live trapping and scat surveys annually by AWC • At Barrow and Salisbury Islands, intermittent monitoring by WA DBCA; population unlikely to be subject to marked changes due to a lack of immediate threats
3 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Petrogale lateralis hacketti • At Mondrain, Westall and Wilson Islands, intermittent monitoring by WA DBCA
Petrogale lateralis pearsoni • Some ongoing population monitoring by SA DEWNR (see 2010 TSSC Listing Advice) Petrogale lateralis (MacDonnell Ranges races): • In the Central Ranges (Warburton area), scat surveys and monitoring is undertaken by WWF, DBCA, Ngaanyatjarra Council Working on Country Ranger Teams and Traditional Owners (since 2017) • At Watarrka NP, monitoring through scat counts has been undertaken by NT DENR since 2015 • In northern SA (mostly APY Lands), monitoring through scat plots, camera traps, capture- recapture and radio-tracking by Warru Recovery Team (Warru Rangers; APY Land Management; Ecological Horizons; University of New South Wales; Natural Resources Alinytjara Wilurara; Zoos SA; Australian Museum; SA DEW), at various sites (Alalka, New Well, Kangka Mangka, Kalka, Warru Pintji, Wamitjara) including translocations, episodically since 1998 • At Alice Springs Telegraph Station, population counts, by SA Warru Recovery Team since 2018 • At Newhaven, through scat surveys, by AWC Petrogale lateralis (West Kimberley race) • At Erskine Range, scat and remote camera surveys, annually from 2015 by WWF and Nyikina Mangala Rangers and Traditional Owners Population trends: Tables 1 and 2 summarise the overall trend and status of the Black-footed Rock-wallaby. The information provided in these tables is derived from the recovery plan and conservation advices with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information.
4 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Table 1. Summary of available information on Black-footed Rock-wallaby distribution and population size, and (where possible) trend estimates between 2015 and 2018 for each parameter.
Population Confidence in estimates / Published baseline 2015 Estimate 2018 Estimate parameters notes
WILD*
Extent of (WA estimate of (WA estimate of 2,653,300 km2 High Occurrence 1,438,000 km2) 1,438,000 km2)
(WA estimate of (WA estimate of 212-224 Area of Occupancy 1060 km2 Medium 212-224 km2) km2)
Dates of records As per Mammal Action Plan, AOO based on IUCN protocol of nos. of 2 km x 2 km cells with records and methods used
Table 2 provides popn estimates for each ca. 10,000 (of subspp, with varying which ca. 1000 in No. mature ca. 10,000 (of which ca. reliability, totalling to <10,000 WA; no reliable individuals 1390 in WA) 10,790 individuals. The estimates for rest no. of mature individuals of range) is somewhat less than that. Circumscription of No. of >10 24 29 locations and subpopulations subpopulations is not straightforward: values No. of locations >10 34 37 given are informed by WA Generation time 6 years n/a n/a Medium (as per MAP) EXCLOSURES/ISLANDS No recent surveys, but population likely stable No. mature n/a ca. 1800 due to lack of immediate individuals ? threats
Nangeen Wheatbelt enclosure from 2013 No. locations n/a 4 5 onwards; Newhaven from 2018 (AWC)
CAPTIVE BREEDING
No. mature Some captive breeding n/a 0 0 individuals has occurred via Zoos SA
No. locations n/a 0 0 n/a *Includes translocations
5 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Table 2. Estimated recent (2005-2015) and current (2015-2018) population trends for the Black- footed Rock-wallaby.
2005- Confidence 2015- Confidence Est. % Sub-population in in of total 2015 2018 Details (subspecies) 2005-2015 2015-2018 pop’n trend trend trend trend (2018)
Detailed information from WA DBCA:
2012 – estimated at ca. 500: Cape Range: 200-250; Calvert Range: <50; Wheatbelt: <150; Cape Le Grand: <30; Avon Valley NP: <50; Paruna sanctuary: ? (12 in 2018)
2017 – estimated at ca. 890: Cape Range: 250-300*; Calvert Range: <50; Petrogale lateralis Jilikuru: 30 (note that Jilikuru and lateralis Kalbarri are translocations that have (mainland sites) occurred recently – adults have been moved from one area to another. [WA estimate Unlikely that there has been a net 890 increase in number of animals at popn size ca. 500 Medium Medium in 2012 and ca. (8%) translocation sites (too early to 890 in 2017] determine: WA DBCA); Wheatbelt: 400; Cape Le Grand: <30; Avon Valley NP: 1; Paruna Sanctuary: (12 in 2018) ; Kalbarri NP: 75
*Revised population estimates for Cape Range are based on increased surveillance and for Kalbarri due to translocations to four sites (Pearson et al. in press). Note: population monitoring has only been possible at a few sites so any perceived population change may not reflect true population increases or decreases.
WA DBCA: 2012 estimate of ca. 700 (Barrow island: 150-200; Salisbury Petrogale lateralis 1400 Island: 500) lateralis (Barrow, High Medium (12%) Salisbury Islands) No recent surveys, but no population changes anticipated due to a lack of immediate threats WA DBCA: 2012 estimated at ca. 1100 (Mondrain Island: 500 Westall Island: 300 Petrogale lateralis 1100 High Medium Wilson Island: 300) hacketti (islands) (9%) No recent surveys, but no population changes anticipated due to a lack of immediate threats
6 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Successful translocations prior to 2015. Petrogale lateralis 1100 High High 2014 estimate of 1100 (Woinarski et al. pearsoni (9%) 2014).
2014 estimate of 6000 (Woinarski et al. 2014)
WA DBCA data suggests pop stable in WA between 2012 (popn 100-200) and 2017 (ca. 200); but probably most of popn for this taxon in NT, and some in SA.
In the Northern Territory, recent surveys have confirmed that this subspecies still Petrogale lateralis occurs at many locations, including in MacDonnell 6000 many national parks, Indigenous Ranges race High (ca. Protected Areas and other conservation reserves; however, the survey [MAP estmates ? 55%) information does not include monitoring popn at ca. 6000] data so trends cannot be readily determined (S. Ward pers. comm.).
However, annual monitoring at Newhaven showed a continued decline with the local extinction of a subpopulation in 2017 (AWC).
In contrast, there has been some increase reported for this subspecies on APY Lands over the period 2015-18 (P. Copley pers. comm.) WA DBCA data suggest stable (Edgar Ranges popn 200; Erskine Ranges popn 100). But recent surveys and sampling Petrogale lateralis 300 by WWF and Nyikina Mangala rangers West Kimberley Low Low (2%) since 2012 indicates that on the Erskine race and Grant Range populations may be declining significantly due to significant disturbance by intense wildfire.
Some successes with translocations and intensive predator management at Whole population Medium Low some subpopulations, but probably ongoing declines at most unmanaged populations.
KEY: Improving Stable Deteriorating Unknown Confidence Description High Trend documented Medium Trend considered likely based on documentation
? Low Trend suspected but evidence indirect or equivocal
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4. Key threats The threats listed here are informed by the recovery plan and conservation advices, with additional advice provided by contributing experts based on new information. Note that this is not a list of all plausible threats, but a subset of the threats that are likely to have the largest impact on populations. Given the extensive range of Black-footed Rock-wallabies but disparate environmental settings of subpopulations, the threat matrix and severity of individual threats varies geographically. Furthermore, there are very substantial and complex interactions among threats, particularly between introduced predators and introduced herbivores, such that threat management needs to be highly integrated. Some threat management also needs to be beyond the immediate area of existing colonies to ensure that some rock-wallabies can disperse successfully among otherwise isolated colonies. Predation Red foxes Vulpes vulpes: Many studies have demonstrated severe detrimental impacts of fox predation (which is likely to be more severe for juveniles and smaller females), and the benefit of effective fox control (Kinnear et al. 2010). There is a high risk of extirpation of island subpopulations if fox incursions occur, and foxes were responsible for the extinction of the Depuch Island subpopulation between 1962 and 1980 (Burbidge and Manly 2002; Burbidge and Abbott 2017). Fox presence is also associated with reduced rock-wallaby foraging times, and foraging distance from rocky refugia. Extant island populations and (currently) the west Kimberley subpopulations are beyond the range of the fox. Feral cats Felis catus: Recent evidence from South Australia has demonstrated predation by feral cats, with some evidence that this has contributed to decline and extirpation in some subpopulations (Read et al. in press). Predation by cats is likely to be more severe for juveniles and smaller females. There is a high risk of extirpation of island subpopulations if cats are introduced. Dingoes/wild dogs: dingoes and wild dogs are recognised as a threat to rock-wallaby populations, particularly near human settlements. However, in some areas, dog populations may limit the abundance and impacts of cats and foxes, and may indirectly benefit rock-wallabies. Also, in some areas (especially on Indigenous lands), baiting aimed at foxes or cats may be culturally unacceptable if it also kills dingoes. The extent of predator impact, and priorities for management responses, may also be influenced by the local or regional abundance of introduced herbivores (e.g. rabbits and sheep in southern populations; potentially cattle in southern Kimberley populations: A. Watson pers. comm.). Where and when abundant, introduced herbivores may support elevated densities of introduced predators, with such high densities leading to increased incidence of predation on rock-wallabies. Conversely, predator baiting in and around rock-wallaby colonies may lead to increases in the abundance of introduced herbivores (e.g. rabbits and goats) that may then compete with rock-wallabies for food resources. Such interactions mean that strategic and integrated pest control may be needed in and around many rock- wallaby populations. Furthermore, rock-wallabies may respond behaviourally to the perceived danger of predators – a ‘landscape of fear’ – and restrict their foraging and other activities to the ‘safest’ part of their home range. With such limited use of their home range, they themselves can deplete food resources and degrade habitat quality, and hence reduce their own population viability (Kinnear et al. 2017).
8 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Introduced herbivores and livestock Introduced herbivores, particularly rabbits, goats and camels, are recognised as a threat to rock- wallabies through competition and habitat degradation. Rabbit activities (selective grazing and burrowing) encourage weed infestations, and are known to support artificially high numbers of introduced predators. Predator management regimes should thus be preceded by a reduction of rabbit numbers, followed by a heavy initial knockdown of introduced predators to avoid perverse outcomes of prey switching. Some introduced herbivores (including livestock) do not forage appreciably in the core rocky habitat used by rock-wallabies, but they may constrain rock-wallaby populations by confining their foraging activities close to refugia (or alternatively, lead to a need for rock wallabies to travel further to forage). Data from the Wheatbelt NRM of threat management surrounding reserves clearly shows higher hit rates (predation on rock-wallabies) around livestock during lambing – the assumption being that livestock are drawcards for predators where they are grazing adjacent to reserves. Inappropriate fire regimes Because of their core rugged habitat, rock-wallaby populations are often buffered from the impacts of extensive and high intensity fires. However, fire causes loss of feeding resources and can result in increased predation pressure. Research by Nyikina Mangala Rangers with support of WWF-Australia and the Kimberley Land Council has identified that extensive, frequent and high intensity fires may be the primary reason for the observed reduction in Wiliji sightings and the quality of their sheltering and foraging habitat across the Erskine, Edgar and Grant Ranges occupied by P. l. (undescribed West Kimberley subspecies) (‘Wiliji’) (A. Watson pers comm.). Fire is believed to have been a main driver of the extinction of the Wamitjara (Sentinel Hill) population in the APY Lands of South Australia and populations extirpated by fire are unlikely to recolonise due to increased predation risk for colonising animals (J. Read pers. comm.). Weeds (habitat degradation) Weeds (particularly buffel grass in the central ranges) can lead to a decline in food resources and habitat quality. Grassy weeds often form more dense cover than native vegetation and so promote higher fuel loads over larger areas of habitat. This can result in dramatic changes to fire regimes, increasing intensity, extent and sometimes frequency of wildfires. Increase in weed cover (and hence decrease in food resources) may also be a consequence of over-grazing by rock-wallabies, and pest and other native herbivores (Kinnear et al. 2017). Other threats Although the species as a whole is very widely distributed, there are many disjunct populations that are now, or have long been, isolated. Many of these populations are small, and the isolation and small population size may lead to ongoing reduction in genetic diversity, with consequent reduced fitness. Local threats (such as habitat fragmentation and mining) may affect some populations, but are generally not pervasive across the range. Prospective threats may also include climate change and disease, but these are not likely to be significantly affecting populations at present. Climate change (notably likely increase in the frequency of severe drought) may have direct impacts and also exacerbate the impacts due to other threats.
9 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
The impacts of the major threats are summarised in Table 3. Note that threat impact varies somewhat between each of the five subspecies.
Table 3. The major threats facing the Black-footed Rock-wallaby and their associated impact scores.
CURRENT THREAT IMPACT
Threat Timing Extent Severity
1. Predation by foxes Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range 20-29%
Not negligible but 2. Predation by feral cats Continuing/ongoing >90% of range <20% Negligible declines 3. Predation by dingoes/wild dogs Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range (<1%) 4. Competition, habitat degradation and Negligible declines Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range enhanced predator populations due to rabbits (<1%) 5. Competition and habitat degradation due to Negligible declines other introduced herbivores (principally goats Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range (<1%) and camels)
6. Increase in fire frequency/intensity Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range 20-29%
Not negligible but 7. Weeds Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range <20%
Timing: continuing/ongoing; near future: any occurrence probable within one generation (includes former threat no longer causing impact but could readily recur); distant future: any occurrence likely to be further than one generation into the future (includes former threat no longer causing impact and unlikely to recur). Extent: <1% of range; 1-50%; 50-90%; >90%. Severity: (over three generations or 10 years, whichever is longer) Causing no decline; Negligible declines (<1%); Not negligible but <20%; 20-29%; 30-49%; 50-100%; Causing/could cause order of magnitude fluctuations.
5. Past and current management Recent and current management actions that support the conservation of Black-footed Rock-wallaby are summarised in Table 4. This information is a collation and summary of material provided by contributing experts. Some of these are directed specifically towards the species, while others have broader objectives but are expected to also benefit it. A Recovery Plan (2013) and Conservation Advice (2013) are in place, guiding recovery action (see Section 11).
10 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Table 4. Management actions that support the conservation of the Black-footed Rock-wallaby.
Est. % Contributors and Action Location Timing population partners
Examples include: (i) From Wheatbelt sites (Mount Caroline and Nangeen Hill) and Cape (i) DBCA with support Range to Cape Le Grand, Kalbarri from WWF; Translocations to and Avon Valley National Parks, (i) from 2001; (ii) DBCA with Martu, KJ; establish new WA; (ii) from 2014; (iii) AWC and DBCA; (iv) populations, (ii) Calvert Range (Kaalpi) to (iii) 2001; ca 10% DBCA; bolster existing Jilikuru; (iii) Wheatbelt to Paruna (iv) ? (v) SA Warru Recovery ones and enhance Sanctuary; (iv) Supplementation (v) 2018: Team, NT DENR, PWCNT; genetic diversity of Kalbarri population to ca. 75 (vi) ? (vi) Warru Recovery individuals; Team (v) from Alice Springs Telegraph Station to SA APY Lands; (vi) Wamitjara, SA
Many groups including Intensive control of DBCA, Wheatbelt NRM, Many populations across most of introduced WGFA volunteers; AWC; range, especially for P. l. lateralis predators, through ca. 50% SA Warru Recovery and for some populations of P. l. baiting, trapping Team, NT DENR, PWCNT; MacDonnell Ranges race etc. Indigenous landholders and ranger groups
Establishment of (i) AWC with support (i) Newhaven, NT; (ii) Nangeen introduced (i) 2018 <1% from the Australian Nature Reserve (compound) predator exclosures Government; (ii) DBCA
Many groups including DBCA, Wheatbelt NRM, Fire management WGFA volunteers; AWC; (to reduced risks of Many populations SA Warru Recovery severe wildfire) Team, NT DENR, PWCNT; Indigenous landholders and ranger groups
Control of e.g., (i) Kalbarri, Avon Valley NP, (i) DBCA, Wheatbelt (i) 2006 on; (ii) introduced Cape Range (rabbits, goats); NRM, WGFA volunteers; 2001 on herbivores (ii) Newhaven NT, Paruna WA (ii) AWC
e.g., Nangeen Hill and Mount WWF-Australia, Greening Habitat restoration Caroline Nature Reserves; and Australia & DBCA with & condition surrounding areas (Central funding support from monitoring Wheatbelt WA) WA State NRM.
11 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
6. Actions undertaken or supported by the Australian Government resulting from inclusion in the Threatened Species Strategy The Australian Government has supported several projects that are likely to benefit the Black-footed Rock-wallaby, including:
i. ‘Protecting the Central Rock-rat in the West MacDonnell Ranges’ ($270,000 funding in partnership with NT Government). This project involved intensive baiting (using Eradicat® baits) to reduce the numbers and predation pressure of feral cats in some parts of the West MacDonnell Ranges. This predator control will benefit some populations of P. l. MacDonnell Ranges race.
ii. A range of research and management actions to enhance the control of introduced predators through the ‘Applying best practice feral cat and fox baiting’ partnership project. For example, the Threatened Species Recovery Fund contributed $249,500 to support WA DBCA, Traditional owners, the local community, local Shire, Water Corporation and Department of Defence in actions to control feral goats, feral cats and foxes in the Ningaloo Coast World Heritage Area, which will benefit some populations of P. l. lateralis. In addition, $1.7 million is supporting the project ‘Threatened animal recovery through feral cat control’ which is helping protect more than 850,000 hectares across northern jarrah forest, midwest semi-arid zone, wandoo woodland and south coast regions by undertaking feral cat baiting with existing fox baiting activity as part of the WA Western Shield program. This will help a number of threatened species including the Black-footed Rock-wallaby. The project ‘Kimberley feral cat bait trial’ provided $260,000 to the WA Government to test a new hybrid feral cat bait Curiosity.
iii. Translocations to Kalbarri (in partnership with WA DBCA).
iv. Development of new technology to control feral cats (using the feral cat grooming trap or ‘Felixer’). Felixer has been trialled at Venus Bay, and could be used at selected sites in the future.
v. ‘Restoring central Australian water places for biodiversity (Restoring desert water places)’ ($320,000 funding, in partnership with the NT Government). This project aims to assist landholders and Aboriginal groups to carry out restoration works on wetland sites to benefit species such as the Black-footed Rock-wallaby and Brush-tailed Mulgara.
vi. ‘Returning Warru to Country’ ($200,000 funding in partnership with the Royal Zoological Society of South Australia). This project aims to reintroduce Black-footed Rock-wallabies to the Musgrave Ranges in South Australia, undertake feral cat and fox control and remove invasive buffel grass. vii. The project ‘Creating one of Australia’s largest fenced feral cat and fox free areas’ ($750,000 funding in collaborations with the Australian Wildlife Conservancy). This project aims to provide a safe-haven free of introduced predators to protect at least nine threatened mammals in Newhaven Wildlife Sanctuary (north-west of Alice Springs) and become one of Australia's largest fenced feral cat and fox-free areas.
12 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
7. Measuring progress towards conservation Table 5. Progress towards management understanding and management implementation for each of the major threats affecting the Black-footed Rock-wallaby in 2015 (i.e. timing of TSS implementation) and 2018, using the progress framework developed by Garnett et al. (2018) PROGRESS IN MANAGING THREATS
Threat Year Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat being managed 6. Research complete and being applied OR 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2015 ongoing research associated with adaptive with continued conservation intervention management of threat 1. Predation by foxes 6. Research complete and being applied OR 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2018 ongoing research associated with adaptive with continued conservation intervention management of threat 1. Research being undertaken or completed 3. Solutions have been adopted but too early to 2015 but limited understanding on how to manage 2. Predation by feral demonstrate success threat cats 3. Solutions being trialled but work only 3. Solutions have been adopted but too early to 2018 initiated recently demonstrate success 5. Trial management is providing clear 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2015 3. Predation by evidence that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention dingoes/wild dogs 5. Trial management is providing clear 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2018 evidence that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention 4. Trial management under way but not yet 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 4. Competition and 2015 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention enhanced predator 4. Trial management under way but not yet 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only numbers due to rabbits 2018 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention 5. Competition due to 4. Trial management under way but not yet 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2015 other introduced clear evidence that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention herbivores (principally 4. Trial management under way but not yet 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2018 goats and camels) clear evidence that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention 2. Research has provided strong direction on 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2015 6. Change in fire how to manage threat with continued conservation intervention frequency/intensity 2. Research has provided strong direction on 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only 2018 how to manage threat with continued conservation intervention 2. Research has provided strong direction on 2015 1. Management limited to trials 7. Habitat degradation how to manage threat due to weeds 2. Research has provided strong direction on 2018 1. Management limited to trials how to manage threat > Green shading indicates an improvement in our understanding or management of threats between 2015 and 2018, while red shading indicates deterioration in our understanding or management of threats. KEY: Score Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat is being managed 0 No knowledge and no research No management Research being undertaken or completed but limited 1 Management limited to trials understanding on how to manage threat Work has been initiated to roll out solutions where threat applies 2 Research has provided strong direction on how to manage threat across the taxon’s range Solutions have been adopted but too early to demonstrate 3 Solutions being trialled but work only initiated recently success Trial management under way but not yet clear evidence that it Solutions are enabling achievement but only with continued 4 can deliver objectives conservation intervention Trial management is providing clear evidence that it can deliver Good evidence available that solutions are enabling achievement 5 objectives with little or no conservation intervention Research complete and being applied OR ongoing research 6 The threat no longer needs management associated with adaptive management of threat
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8. Expert elicitation for population trends An expert elicitation process was undertaken to assess population trends for the period 2005-2015 and post-2015 under the following management scenarios. Please note that differences between Management Scenarios 2 and 3 (Fig. 1) are difficult to attribute, as it can be difficult to determine whether actions undertaken after 2015 were influenced by the Threatened Species Strategy or were independent of it (see Summary Report for details of methods). Management Scenario 1 (red line): no conservation management undertaken since 2015, and no new actions implemented.
• Cessation of current substantial set of management actions including (i) predator control at many mainland sites, (ii) control of introduced herbivores at some sites, and (iii) fire management. No translocations. Most island subpopulations probably persist as risk of introductions relatively low. Management Scenario 2 (blue line): continuation of existing conservation management (i.e. actions undertaken before implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy or independent of the Threatened Species Strategy).
• Ongoing control of predators at (and around) many sites • Ongoing control of introduced herbivores at many sites • Some supplementation of existing sites to enhance genetic diversity and population sizes • Some translocations to new sites • Fire management at many sites Management Scenario 3 (green line): continuation of existing management, augmented by support mobilised by the Australian Government under the Threatened Species Strategy.
• As for 2, but more effective predator control at many more sites, and more progress towards new techniques allowing for more effective broad-scale predator control • Habitat restoration at some sites • More translocations Overall estimated population trajectories subject to management scenarios considered The Black-footed Rock-wallaby is currently being managed under Scenario 3 (green line).
14 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Figure 1. Estimated relative percentage change in population under each of the management scenarios described above. Data derived from 6 expert assessments of Black- footed Rock-wallaby expected response to management, using four-step elicitation and the IDEA protocol (Hemming et al. 2017), where experts are asked to provide best estimates, lowest and highest plausible estimates, and an associated level of confidence. The dashed line represents the baseline value (i.e. as at 2015, standardised to 100). Values above this line indicate a relative increase in population size, while values below this line indicate a relative decrease in population size. Shading indicates confidence bounds (i.e. the lowest and highest plausible estimates). NB: lower and upper bounds wider than shown in graphs.
Population size projections based on expert elicitation are extended here to 2025, 2035 and 2045 (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 years after the establishment of the Threatened Species Strategy) on the grounds that some priority conservation management actions may take many years to achieve substantial conservation outcomes. However, we note also that there will be greater uncertainty around estimates of population size into the more distant future because, for example, novel threats may affect the species, managers may develop new and more efficient conservation options, and the impacts of climate change may be challenging to predict.
15 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Improved trajectory (Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 target): The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against achieving the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, i.e. a demonstrated improved trajectory for at least half of the priority species (10 birds and 10 mammals). To assess this, we first use the expert-derived trend between 2005-15 (i.e. 10 years prior to implementation of the TSS) as a baseline for assessing whether there has been an improvement in trajectory in the time since implementation of the TSS (i.e. 2015-18). Table 6 below summarises this information, where negative values indicate a declining population, and positive values indicate an increasing population. We used Wilcoxon match-paired tests to compare trajectories for these two periods; a significant result (probability <0.05) indicates that there was a high concordance amongst experts that their trajectory estimates for 2005- 15 were different to their estimates for 2015-18. Table 6. A comparison of the relative annual percentage population change for the periods 2005-2015 and 2015-2018.
Pre-TSS trend Post-TSS trend Year 3 Significant concordance (2005-2015) (2015-2018) target met? among elicitors?
No pronounced change in trajectory from 2005-15 to Annual 2015-18 is apparent, with percentage confidence about trend 0 0.12 population assessment constrained by change lack of monitoring information for many populations.
The Black-footed Rock-wallaby has an extensive but fragmented distribution across Australia. At many sites, populations have been extirpated by introduced predators, and these (and other threats) are causing ongoing decline in some surviving populations. Conversely, many populations have been subject to intensive, extensive and sustained management over several decades, and there have also been many translocations to sites at which introduced predators are effectively controlled. Given this variable history of management effort and success, overall trends are not straightforward to assess, but the population as a whole may be reasonably stable. Many stakeholders, especially state agencies, conservation NGOs and Indigenous ranger groups and landowners are involved in management. The Threatened Species Strategy has contributed to some recovery of the species, particularly through support for the establishment of a large introduced predator exclosure at Newhaven, and supporting ongoing research on and application of some innovative control mechanisms for introduced predators.
16 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Additional actions that could improve trajectory The potential impact of carrying out specific additional conservation measures on the population trajectory of the Black-footed Rock-wallaby was also evaluated through expert elicitation. Additional actions that could further improve the population trajectory of the Black-footed Rock-wallaby include more translocations and, eventually, more options for broad-scale predator control. If these additional actions were carried out, experts considered that the trajectory of the Black-footed Rock-wallaby would continue to increase, at slightly higher rates, with more existing populations secured, and some additional populations newly established or re-established.
9. Immediate priorities from 2019 Given the extensive (if highly patchy) range of this species, and the number of agencies and organisations involved in its management and its threats, priorities vary at national and local scales. The priorities listed here are derived from the Recovery Plan, Conservation Advice and information provided by contributing experts based on new information. Identification of these priorities in this document is for information and is non-statutory. For the statutory conservation planning documents (Recovery Plan and Conservation Advice), please see Section 11. Data collection: • Ongoing monitoring of population size (and in some cases genetic diversity) at key, representative and susceptible colonies and over range • Ongoing monitoring of key threats • Ongoing monitoring of effectiveness of management Management actions: Management for this species may be especially complex, because many subpopulations are very small, and may succumb rapidly to changes in threat level or unexpected events. Furthermore, although management is needed at the localised sites of occurrence, threat management at broader scale may also be needed to allow for dispersal of individuals among otherwise isolated subpopulations. Management of most threats needs to be enduring (long-term) as conservation gains can readily be lost if, for example, cat or fox populations build up rapidly after a hiatus in management. Overall management is complex because many of the threats (e.g. predation by cats, foxes and dogs; habitat degradation and competition due to introduced herbivores; fire) are highly inter-related, and hence management needs to be carefully integrated; also, in some areas, baiting that has negative impacts on dingoes may be culturally unacceptable.
• Fox and cat control at larger scales (i.e. beyond the primary refuge habitat to facilitate dispersal), and more effective and innovative control • Implement appropriate fire regimes (northern and central populations); • Integrated control of introduced herbivores
17 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
• Effective broad-scale control of buffel grass (complemented where possible by research on biological control) • Undertake translocations for augmenting genetic diversity Note also that WWF advised that they were in the process of conservation action planning for Black-flanked Rock-wallabies in WA using Open Standards for Conservation.
10. Contributors Merril Halley, Alexander Watson, and Darren Grover (WWF-Australia); Wheatbelt NRM; Simon Ward (NT DENR); Peter Copley (SA DEWNR); John Read; Danae Moore, David Roshier, John Kanowski (AWC); David Pearson, Juanita Renwick, Alicia Whittington, Michelle Drew, Manda Page, Jennifer Higbid (WA DBCA); John Woinarski, Sarah Legge, Hayley Geyle (NESP TSR Hub); Andrew Burbidge; Peter Menkhorst; Nicholas MacGregor.
11. Legislative documents SPRAT profile (P. l. lateralis): http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi- bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=66647 Pearson, D.J. (2013). Recovery plan for five species of rock wallabies: Black-footed rock wallaby (Petrogale lateralis), Rothschild rock wallaby (Petrogale rothschildi), Short-eared rock wallaby (Petrogale brachyotis), Monjon (Petrogale burbidgei) and Nabarlek (Petrogale concinna) 2012-2022. Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, WA. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/recovery-plan-five-species-rock-wallabies. In effect under the EPBC Act from 30-Jan-2014 as Petrogale lateralis MacDonnell Ranges race. Threatened Species Scientific Committee (TSSC) (2010). Commonwealth Listing Advice on Petrogale lateralis pearsoni (Pearson Island Rock-wallaby). Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. Canberra, ACT: Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/224-listing- advice.pdf. In effect under the EPBC Act from 15-Jul-2010. Threatened Species Scientific Committee (2016). Conservation Advice Petrogale lateralis lateralis black-flanked rock-wallaby. Canberra: Department of the Environment and Energy. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/66647- conservation-advice-07122016.pdf. In effect under the EPBC Act from 07-Dec-2016
18 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
12. References Burbidge AA, Abbott I (2017) Mammals on Western Australian islands: occurrence and preliminary analysis. Australian Journal of Zoology 65, 183-195. Burbidge AA, Manly BFJ (2002) Mammal extinctions on Australian islands: causes and conservation implications. Journal of Biogeography 29, 465-473. Eldridge MDB, Close RL, Johnston PG (1991) Chromosomal rearrangements in rock-wallabies, Petrogale (Marsupialia: Macropodidae). IV. G-banding analysis of the Petrogale lateralis complex. Australian Journal of Zoology 39, 621-627. Garnett, S.T., Butchart, S.H.M., Baker, G.B., Bayraktarov, E., Buchanan, K.L., Burbidge, A.A., Chauvenet, A.L.M., Christidis, L., Ehmke, G., Grace, M., Hoccom, D.G., Legge, S.M., Leiper, I., Lindenmayer, D.B., Loyn, R.H., Maron, M., McDonald, P., Menkhorst, P., Possingham, H.P., Radford, J., Reside, A.E., Watson, D.M., Watson, J.E.M., Wintle, B., Woinarski, J.C.Z., and Geyle, H.M. (2018) Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian Birds. Conservation Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13220. Hemming, V., Burgman, M.A., Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F., and Wintle B.C. (2017) A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 169-180. Kinnear JE, Krebs CJ, Pentland C, Orell P, Holme C, Karvinen R (2010) Predator-baiting experiments for the conservation of rock-wallabies in Western Australia: a 25-year review with recent advances. Wildlife Research 37, 57-67. Kinnear JE, Onus ML, Bromilow RN (1988) Fox control and rock-wallaby population dynamics. Australian Wildlife Research 15, 435-450 Kinnear JE, Onus ML, Sumner NR (1998) Fox control and rock-wallaby population dynamics. II. An update. Australian Wildlife Research 25, 81-88. Kinnear, J.E., Pentland, C., Moore, N., Krebs, C.J. (2017). Fox control and 1080 baiting conundrums: time to prepare for a CRISPR solution Australian Mammalogy 39, 127- 136. Pearson D (2013) 'Recovery plan for five species of rock wallabies: Black-footed rock wallaby (Petrogale lateralis) Short-eared rock wallaby (Petrogale brachyotis), Monjon (Petrogale burbidgei), Nabarlek (Petrogale concinna), Rothschild rock wallaby (Petrogale rothschildi).' Western Australian Department of Environment and Conservation, Perth. Pearson DJ, Neaves LE, Paxman M, Desmond A, Renwick J, Halley M, Willers N, Eldridge MDB (in press) Identification of a remnant population of the black-flanked rock-wallaby (Petrogale lateralis lateralis) in Kalbarri National Park, Western Australia, and implications for its management. Australian Mammalogy. Read J, Copley P, Ward M, Dagg E, Olds L, Taggart D, West R (2018) Bringing back warru: return of the Black-footed Rock-wallaby to the APY Lands. In 'Recovering Australia’s Threatened Species: a Book of Hope'. (Eds S Garnett, P Latch, D Lindenmeyer and J Woinarski) pp. 237-248. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne) Read JL, Dagg E, Moseby KE (in press) Prey selectivity by feral cats at central Australian rock- wallaby colonies. Australian Mammalogy. Ward MJ, Urban R, Read J, Dent A, Partridge T, Clarke A, van Weenen J (2011) Status of Warru Petrogale lateralis MacDonnell Ranges Race in the Anangu Pitjantjajara
19 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)
Yankunytjatjara Lands of South Australia. 1. Distributions and declines. Australian Mammalogy 33, 135-141. Woinarski JCZ, Burbidge AA, Harrison PL (2014) 'The Action Plan for Australian Mammals 2012.' (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne).
13. Citation Please cite this document as:
National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Research Hub (2019) Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 Scorecard – Black-footed Rock-wallaby. Australian Government, Canberra. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/20-mammals-by- 2020/black-footed-rock-wallaby
20 Information current to December 2018