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S&SC Report Winter 05

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S&SC Report Winter 05 Winter 2005 BOSTON GREATER The Spaulding & Slye Colliers Report A semi-annual review and forecast of commercial real estate trends 2005 Spaulding & Slye Colliers offers Development, Leasing, Management, Investment Sales, Construction and Structured Finance to a diverse mix of clients throughout the nation and the world. 3 Table of Contents Greater Boston Overview Boston Market Greater winter 2005 Market Summaries 4 Introduction 5 Foreword: David McGarry, President Economy National 6 Regional 7 Market Overviews Boston Office 8 Cambridge Office 9 Suburban Office 10 Suburban R&D 12 Suburban Industrial 13 Investment Sales Office 14 Retail 15 Structured Finance 16 Residential Services 17 Law Firm Services 18 Market Definitions 19 The Boston office market endured a bumpy ride in 2004, but gained some momentum heading into 2005. Greater Boston Market Summaries Market Overview Total Vacant Percent Available Percent 2004 Annual Supply Space Vacant Space Available Net Absorption Office Greater Boston 152,100,940 22,486,730 14.8% 34,516,948 22.7% 1,749,603 Boston 57,120,311 6,176,730 10.8% 10,231,218 17.9% -60,541 Financial District 34,068.721 3,975,039 11.7% 6,220,850 18.3% 601,635 Back Bay 12,917,763 912,731 7.1% 2,191,006 17.0% -465,088 Cambridge 15,844,213 2,430,325 15.3% 3,709,205 23.4% 436,912 Suburbs 79,136,416 13,879,675 17.5% 20,576,528 26.0% 1,373,232 R & D Greater Boston 49,361,380 11,104,359 22.5% 15,540,307 31.5% -222,596 Boston 2,706,140 176,887 6.5% 178,380 6.6% -31,899 Cambridge 1,106,616 287,492 26.0% 434,492 39.3% 20,263 Suburbs 45,548,624 10,639,980 23.4, 14,927,435 32.8% -210,960 Industrial Greater Boston 60,171,681 10,795,530 17.9% 13,756,533 22.9% -1,742,800 Cambridge 372,530 17,156 4.6% 17,156 4.6% 24,550 Suburbs 59,799,151 10,778,374 18.0% 13,739,377 23.0% -1,767,350 5 Foreword Conventional Wisdom Overview Boston Market Greater In 2004, we saw the U.S. economy move towards a well-balanced recovery. For the first time since 2001, jobs and output grew alongside each other. The creation of 2.2 million new jobs marked the first annual employment growth since the recession of 2001 and the best job growth in five years. Alongside the creation of new jobs was the sustained growth in the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which increased by an estimated annual rate of 4.4%. As a result, 2004 marked the turning point for the national office real estate market, which saw its annual net absorption surge to 80 million square feet, nearly three times its level in 2003. However, we continued to experience regional differences, with the Mid-Atlantic region leading the recovery and the New England area lagging the national recovery. We anticipate this trend to continue in 2005. Despite these regional differences, we look forward to increasing positive momentum with the nation’s economy and our industry. The twin-set trade and budget deficits and the threats of inflation will challenge the market, but all indicators point toward a modest but steady gain in the nation’s economy. With more markets well along the recovery path, real estate has become a mainstream choice for investors, often realizing greater returns than the stock market. The relatively recent development of the public capital market (both debt and equity) as a source of real estate investment capital has turned real estate into one of the pillars of institutional investment. In conjunction with the enormous growth of the real estate capital markets has been an increase in the quality and depth of information available to real estate investors. These recent developments, combined with the historically low level of risk and potential for high return, continue to make real estate a unique and attractive investment option. The outlook for a more widespread growth in the economy and real estate markets bodes well for our matrix-based organization. We were successful in capitalizing on the many opportunities that came our way to exercise our real estate expertise for our clients in 2004. With a more broad-based growth outlook on the horizon in 2005, we will continue to take advantage of opportunities from a wide range of clients, including those in the legal services, life sciences, corporate, investor, and higher education sectors. But more importantly, we will continue to service our clients’ real estate needs. We look forward to another successful year for both Spaulding & Slye Colliers and the clients we serve. 6 National Economy Jocelina O. Benzmiller, Vice President 2004: A Banner Year for the U.S. Economy U.S. Net Absorption and New Office Jobs The Labor Market Aligns with Output Growth 150 1,500 80 MSF 120 1,200 2004 was a banner year for the U.S. economy. The economy’s 672,000 steady forward movement during the latter half of 2003 through 90 900 (’000) Jobs New Office the first half of 2004 gained full steam by year’s end, as the 60 600 national economy enjoyed both employment and output growth 30 300 for the first time since 2001, pointing towards a more broad-based 0 0 national economic recovery. The creation of 2.2 million new jobs (MSF) Absorption Net -30 -300 in 2004 marked the first annual employment growth since the -60 -600 recession of 2001 and the best job growth performance in five -90 -900 years. As a result, the national unemployment rate fell to 5.1% at 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 year’s end, its lowest year-end level since 2000 and the lowest Net Absorption New Office Jobs monthly rate since December 2001. Alongside steady job creation was a healthy growth in output, with real gross domestic 102.7 in December. With high energy costs and the national product - the output of goods and services produced in the United inflation rate continuing to trend upward to 2.7% in 2004, the States - increasing at an estimated annual rate of 4.4%. Encouraged Federal Reserve Bank continued gradual interest rate hikes by the gains in the labor market, consumer spending continued to throughout 2004 in order to dampen the inflationary threat that feed the nation’s economic growth, as sales grew by 8%, its best often accompanies a surging economy. performance since 1999's 8.5% rate of growth. The expectations for a steady but modest upward movement of Fuelling job creation was the private service sector, which interest rates throughout the year - federal funds rate is forecasted accounted for 76% of the nation’s total new jobs. Perhaps the to approach 4% by the end of 2005 - will help keep inflationary most significant indicator for the commercial real estate market was threats at bay, and thus, protect from an overheated economy. the creation of 672,000 net new office jobs in the nation. Reflecting This monetary policy will go a long way in ensuring that both this influx of new jobs, the national office real estate market saw its consumers, who have been the engines of growth in this gradual net absorption surge to 80 million square feet in 2004, nearly three journey towards a full recovery, and businesses continue to invest times the 2003 annual level. With national net absorption posting (spend) in the economy, a critical factor in achieving continued its best performance in five years, the national office market employment and output growth in 2005. While other vacancy rate continued its downward trend to reach 15.4% at issues - existing trade and budgetary deficits and a weak dollar, year’s end. among others - will challenge public policy and the economy in Of significance in the economic landscape of 2004 was a more 2005, we expect the year ahead to continue the momentum built broad-based healthy economy across the country. Unlike the past in 2004. several years where growth was restricted to limited pockets of the We expect a steady and modest economic growth in 2005. country, a majority of the metropolitan areas across the nation Specifically, the expectation for some 2.1 to 2.5 million new jobs mirrored the upswing in the overall national economic environment and the continued downward movement of the unemployment in 2004. Eighty percent of the 274 metro areas in the U.S. posted rate towards 5%, will bring opportunities to the national office annual employment increases at year’s end, with the following five market - continued absorption gains especially in high office-using metro areas experiencing the largest over-the-year employment job markets. increase: Washington, DC, Phoenix-Mesa, Las Vegas, New York, and St. Louis areas. Encouraged by sustained economic growth and the recovery of the labor market, consumers remained bullish on the state of the national economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index surged to 7 Regional Economy Ben Breslau, Vice President Jobs Remain the Name of the Game The U.S. economic recovery is clearly underway, with three and a half years of positive GDP growth, 2.2 million jobs created, and business confidence, profits and capital spending all trending upward in 2004. Some encouraging signs surfaced regionally in 2004 as well, but several key obstacles still stand in the way of a sustained local expansion. Regionally, job growth remains critically lacking. The country added enough jobs in January 2005 to officially surpass its previous peak employment level of 2000.
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