Morning Call April 15, 2010 Thursday

Market Review Today KSE-100 Index 10,570.88 The market is likely to map out a green trajectory today as strong foreign inflows Change (In Points) 64.68 in the energy sector are supporting the local bourse. Healthy foreign inflows and DoD Change (In %) 0.62 good expected corporate results are expected to drive investors confidence High CY2010 (9-Apr-10) 10,586.46 positively. However, a cautious stance should be adopted for the scrip which are Low CY2010 (4-Jan-10) 9,437.85 trading near their target prices. We recommend investors to accumulate Turnover (Shares in mil) 280.93 fundamentally strong scrips like POL, PPL, BAFL, UBL, AKBL, ACPL, LUCK, PSO DoD Change (Shares in mil) 102.67 and APL, on dips. Whereas at current levels MCB, OGDC and FFC provide a Gainers/Losers 231/155 good opportunity of profit taking. 6 Months KIBOR (In %) 12.35 T-Bills 12 Months (In %) 12.33 FFBL – 1Q-CY2010 earning preview PIB 10 Years (In %) 12.63 Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) is scheduled to announce its financial Futures Volume (in mil) 20.63 result for the first quarter ended March 31st, 2010 on April 16, 2010. The Futures Value (in mil) 1,173.88 Company is expected to post net profit of PKR 804 million (EPS: PKR 0.86), FIPI (in mil) $3.83 exhibiting a staggering 61x YOY increase. We expect the Company to declare Forex Market cash dividend of PKR 0.75 per share. Currency Inter-Bank Open market Dollar 83.72/83.91 83.85/84.20 Euro 113.40/114.50 P&L statement (PKR million) 1Q-CY2010E 1Q-CY2009A YOY chg Pound sterling 128.40/129.50 News Highlights Sales 6,343 5,856 8% Economy: Cost of sales 4,469 5,037 -11%  Govt seeks relaxation in IMF performance Gross profit 1,874 819 129% criteria for 5th tranche (The News) Selling & admin expenses 502 428 17% Other income 283 248 14% Oil & Gas: Finance cost 243 628 -61%  OGDC chairman, managing director lock horns over Sara Sufi Fields Profit before taxation 804 13 6085% (Business Recorder) Earnings per share (PKR) 0.86 0.01 6085%

Board Meetings Dividend per share (PKR) 0.75 - Nestle 15-Apr-10 10:00 AM Sources: Company accounts & AHL estimates Fauji Fertilizer Bin 16-Apr-10 11:00 AM Al Ghazi Tractors 16-Apr-10 4:00 PM Packages 19-Apr-10 1:00 PM Key points: Pakistan Tobacoo 19-Apr-10 11:30 AM Rafhan Maize 19-Apr-10 11:30 AM  Net sales are expected to increase by 8% to PKR 6,343 million for the period Lafarge Pakistan 19-Apr-10 3:00 PM in contrast to PKR 5,856 million recorded in same period last year, on the 20-Apr-10 10:00 AM back of higher urea and DAP prices. We anticipate DAP sales to show no Indus Motor 20-Apr-10 10:30 AM growth for the period in contrast to corresponding period last year whereas National Refinery 20-Apr-10 11:00 AM urea volumetric sales are expected to decline to 100 thousand tons from 114 Sui Northern Gas 20-Apr-10 11:30 AM thousand tons, on account of plant turnaround activity during February Attock 20-Apr-10 2:30 PM 2010 for 26 days. Attock Refinery 20-Apr-10 4:00 PM Pakistan Oilfields 20-Apr-10 5:30 PM Kot Addu Power 21-Apr-10 11:30 AM  Gross margins are estimated to advance by 15.5% to 29.5% in 1Q-CY2010 JS Bank 21-Apr-10 4:00 PM following robust DAP primary margins to US$ 230/tons compared to IGI Insurance 21-Apr-10 2:00 PM US$100/tons in 1Q-CY2009 and higher urea prices. Pakistan Refinery 21-Apr-10 10:00 AM MCB Bank 21-Apr-10 2:00 PM  Other income is expected to surge by 14% to PKR 283 million due to Habib Metro. Bank 21-Apr-10 3:00 PM increase investments in money market funds and short terms deposits Bata Pakistan 22-Apr-10 11:00 AM coupled with higher cash balance as at December 31st 2009. Shell Pakistan 22-Apr-10 10:00 AM Sitara Chemicals 22-Apr-10 4:30 PM Habib Bank 22-Apr-10 10:00 AM  Financial charges are expected to drop massively by 61% YOY on account of 22-Apr-10 11:00 AM lower carry over inventory resulting in reduced working capital Lotte Pakistan 22-Apr-10 3:30 PM requirements. DAP inventory at December 2008 stood at 173 thousand tons 23-Apr-10 10:00 AM versus nominal 2 thousand tons at December 2009. 26-Apr-10 10:00 AM Tri Pack Films 26-Apr-10 12:00 PM Recommendation Clariant Pakistan 28-Apr-10 11:00 AM Based on our revised June 2010 target price of PKR 32.55 per share, the scrip is IGI Investment Bank 28-Apr-10 3:00 PM trading at almost at its target, therefore we recommend SELL. Siemens Pakistan 29-Apr-10 3:00 PM Safe Mix Concrete 30-Apr-10 4:30 PM Upcoming Events Shahbaz Ashraf T-Bills Auction 21-Apr-10 [email protected]

Important notice: The information contained herein is compiled from sources AHL believes to be reliable, but we do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to be an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. AHL and its officers or employees may or may not have a position in or with respect to the securities mentioned herein and they do not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication and its contents. AHL may, from time to time, have a consulting relationship with a company being reported upon. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice. AHL (Equities Research Dept.): Phone: 2415213-15 Fax: 2429653