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Economic Perspectives The Journal of The Journal of Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives The Journal of Winter 2012, Volume 26, Number 1 Economic Perspectives Symposia Energy Challenges Hunt Allcott and Michael Greenstone, “Is There an Energy Efciency Gap?” Paul L. Joskow, “Creating a Smarter U.S. Electricity Grid” Lucas W. Davis, “Prospects for Nuclear Power” Severin Borenstein, “The Private and Public Economics of Renewable Electricity Generation” Christopher R. Knittel, “Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation” Catherine Wolfram, Orie Shelef, and Paul Gertler, “How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?” A journal of the Higher Education American Economic Association David J. Deming, Claudia Goldin, and Lawrence F. Katz, “The For-Prot Postsecondary School Sector: Nimble Critters or Agile Predators?” 26, Number 1 Winter 2012 Volume Christopher Avery and Sarah Turner, “Student Loans: Do College Students Borrow Too Much—Or Not Enough?” Ronald G. Ehrenberg, “American Higher Education in Transition” Articles Maury Gittleman and Brooks Pierce, “Compensation for State and Local Government Workers” Recommendations for Further Reading • Notes Winter 2012 The Journal of Economic Perspectives A journal of the American Economic Association Editor David H. Autor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Co-editors Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago John A. List, University of Chicago Associate Editors Katherine Baicker, Harvard University Benjamin G. Edelman, Harvard University Robert C. Feenstra, University of California at Davis Raymond Fisman, Columbia University Gordon Hanson, University of California at San Diego Susan Houseman, Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Anil Kashyap, University of Chicago Jonathan Morduch, New York University Rohini Pande, Harvard University Bruce Sacerdote, Dartmouth College Kerry Smith, Arizona State University Chad Syverson, University of Chicago Managing Editor Timothy Taylor Assistant Editor Ann Norman Editorial offices: Journal of Economic Perspectives American Economic Association Publications 2403 Sidney St., #260 Pittsburgh, PA 15203 e-mail: <[email protected]> The Journal of Economic Perspectives gratefully acknowledges the support of Macalester College. Registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (®). Copyright © 2012 by the American Economic Association; All Rights Reserved. Composed by American Economic Association Publications, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A. Printed by R. R. Donnelley Company, Jefferson City, Missouri, 65109, U.S.A. No responsibility for the views expressed by the authors in this journal is assumed by the editors or by the American Economic Association. THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (ISSN 0895-3309), Winter 2012, Vol. 26, No. 1. The JEP is published quarterly (February, May, August, November) by the American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203-2418. Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00 depending on income; for an additional $15.00, you can receive this journal in print. Further information on subscriptions and the American Economic Association can be found at <http://www. vanderbilt.edu/AEA/>. Periodicals postage paid at Nashville, TN, and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. Printed in the U.S.A. The Journal of Economic Perspectives Contents Volume 26 • Number 1 • Winter 2012 Symposia Energy Challenges Hunt Allcott and Michael Greenstone, “Is There an Energy Efficiency Gap?” . 3 Paul L . Joskow, “Creating a Smarter U .S . Electricity Grid” . 29 Lucas W . Davis, “Prospects for Nuclear Power” . 49 Severin Borenstein, “The Private and Public Economics of Renewable Electricity Generation” . 67 Christopher R . Knittel, “Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation” . 93 Catherine Wolfram, Orie Shelef, and Paul Gertler, “How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?” . 119 Higher Education David J . Deming, Claudia Goldin, and Lawrence F . Katz, “The For-Profit Postsecondary School Sector: Nimble Critters or Agile Predators?” . 139 Christopher Avery and Sarah Turner, “Student Loans: Do College Students Borrow Too Much—Or Not Enough?” . 165 Ronald G . Ehrenberg, “American Higher Education in Transition” . 193 Articles Maury Gittleman and Brooks Pierce, “Compensation for State and Local Government Workers” . 217 Timothy Taylor, “Recommendations for Further Reading” . 243 Notes . 251 Statement of Purpose The Journal of Economic Perspectives attempts to fill a gap between the general interest press and most other academic economics journals . The journal aims to publish articles that will serve several goals: to synthesize and integrate lessons learned from active lines of economic research; to provide economic analysis of public policy issues; to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas among the fields of economics; to offer readers an accessible source for state-of-the-art economic thinking; to suggest directions for future research; to provide insights and read- ings for classroom use; and to address issues relating to the economics profession . Articles appearing in the journal are normally solicited by the editors and associate editors . Proposals for topics and authors should be directed to the journal office, at the address inside the front cover . Policy on Data Availability It is the policy of the Journal of Economic Perspectives to publish papers only if the data used in the analysis are clearly and precisely documented and are readily available to any researcher for purposes of replication . Details of the computations sufficient to permit replication must be provided . The Editor should be notified at the time of submission if the data used in a paper are proprietary or if, for some other reason, the above requirements cannot be met . Policy on Disclosure Authors of articles appearing in the Journal of Economic Perspectives are expected to disclose any potential conflicts of interest that may arise from their consulting activities, financial interests, or other nonacademic activities . Journal of Economic Perspectives Advisory Board Abhijit Banerjee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund Judy Chevalier, Yale University Dora Costa, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Elizabeth Hoffman, Iowa State University Patrick Kehoe, University of Minnesota Christopher Jencks, Harvard University David Leonhardt, The New York Times Carmen Reinhart, Peterson Institute Eugene Steuerle, Urban Institute Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 26, Number 1—Winter 2012—Pages 3–28 Is There an Energy Effi ciency Gap? Hunt Allcott and Michael Greenstone any analysts of the energy industry have long believed that energy effi ciencyciency offersoffers anan enormousenormous “win-win”“win-win” opportunity:opportunity: throughthrough aggres-aggres- M sive energy conservation policies, we can both save money and reduce negative externalities associated with energy use. In 1979, Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin and the Harvard Business School Energy Project made an early version of this argument in the book Energy Future: If the United States were to make a serious commitment to conservation, it might well consume 30 to 40 percent less energy than it now does, and still enjoy the same or an even higher standard of living . Although some of the barriers are economic, they are in most cases institutional, political, and social. Overcoming them requires a government policy that champions con- servation, that gives it a chance equal in the marketplace to that enjoyed by conventional sources of energy. Thirty years later, consultancy McKinsey & Co. made a similar argument in its 2009 report, Unlocking Energy Effi ciency in the U.S. Economy : Energy effi ciency offers a vast, low-cost energy resource for the U.S. economy— but only if the nation can craft a comprehensive and innovative approach to ■ Hunt Allcott is Assistant Professor of Economics, New York University, New York City, New York. Michael Greenstone is 3M Professor of Environmental Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Allcott is a Faculty Research Fellow and Greenstone is a Research Associate, both at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Their e-mail addresses are 〈[email protected]〉 and 〈[email protected]〉. doi=10.1257/jep.26.1.3 4 Journal of Economic Perspectives unlock it. Signifi cant and persistent barriers will need to be addressed at mul- tiple levels to stimulate demand for energy effi ciency and manage its delivery . If executed at scale, a holistic approach would yield gross energy savings worth more than $1.2 trillion, well above the $520 billion needed through 2020 for upfront investment in effi ciency measures (not including program costs). Such a program is estimated to reduce end-use energy consumption in 2020 by 9.1 quadrillion BTUs, roughly 23 percent of projected demand, potentially abating up to 1.1 gigatons of greenhouse gases annually. In economic language, the “win-win” argument is that government interven- tion to encourage energy effi ciency can improve welfare for two reasons. First, the consumption of fossil fuels, which comprise the bulk of our current energy sources, causes externalities such as harm to human health, climate change, and constraints on the foreign policy objectives of energy-importing countries. Second, other
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