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Changing Climate and Glacio-Hydrology Advanced Review Changing climate and glacio-hydrology in Indian Himalayan Region: a review Shaktiman Singh,1 Rajesh Kumar,1* Anshuman Bhardwaj,1,2 Lydia Sam,1,3 Mayank Shekhar,4 Atar Singh,1 Ramesh Kumar1 and Akhilesh Gupta5 Edited by Matilde Rusticucci, Domain Editor, and Mike Hulme, Editor-in-Chief This study presents a comprehensive review of the published literature on the evidences of a changing climate in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) and its impacts on the glacio-hydrology of the region. The IHR serves as an important source of fresh water for the densely populated areas downstream. It is evident from the available studies that temperature is significantly increasing in all parts of the IHR, whereas precipitation is not indicative of any particular spatiotempo- ral trend. Glacio-hydrological proxies for changing climate, such as, terminus and areal changes of the glaciers, glacier mass balance, and streamflow in down- stream areas, highlight changes more evidently in recent decades. On an aver- age, studies have predicted an increase in temperature and precipitation in the region, along with increase in streamflow of major rivers. Such trends are already apparent in some sub-basins of the western IHR. The region is particu- larly vulnerable to changing climate as it is highly dependent on snow and gla- cier melt run-off to meet its freshwater demands. We present a systematic review of key papers dealing with changing temperature, precipitation, glaciers, and streamflow in the IHR. We discuss these interdisciplinary themes in relation to each other, in order to establish the present and future impacts of climatic, glaciological, and hydrological changes in the region. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. How to cite this article: WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:393–410. doi: 10.1002/wcc.393 INTRODUCTION wind speed, and direction) observed in a given loca- tion. Climate change refers to any long term devia- limate is the long-term average of the weather tion in these climate parameters caused by natural Ccondition (temperature, precipitation, humidity, variability or human activities.1 The phrase ‘long term’ is consistent with the definition of climate as an * Correspondence to: [email protected] average of its parameters over a duration of 30 years. 1 Department of Environmental Science, School of Basic Sciences All the available records of temperature and climate and Research, Sharda University, Greater Noida, India 2 models show near-surface rise in temperature, partic- Division of Space Technology, Department of Computer Science, 2 Luleå University of Technology, Kiruna, Sweden ularly in recent decades. Studies suggest an increased 3 rate of warming, particularly in the minimum tem- Defence Terrain Research Laboratory, Defence Research and Development Organisation, New Delhi, India peratures of the mountainous regions (the Swiss Alps, 4Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeobotany, Lucknow, India the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Tibetan Plateau/ 5Department of Science and Technology, Technology Bhavan, Himalayas, and the Tropical Andes), as compared to 3 New Delhi, India the nearby low land areas. The rising temperature fl fl has a negative impact on the glacio-hydrology of Con ict of interest: The authors have declared no con icts of inter- 4 est for this article. snow/ice-fed river catchments. Glacio-hydrology is Volume7,May/June2016 ©2016WileyPeriodicals,Inc. 393 Advanced Review wires.wiley.com/climatechange an integrated term using the words ‘hydrology’ and depending upon the topography and local – ‘glaciology.’ Hydrology refers to the science that climate.4,15 21 In fact, contrary to the general incorporates the occurrence, distribution and move- retreats, Hewitt22 observed expansion of a few ment of water, and their relationship to the physical debris-covered glaciers in the Karakoram region. factors in each phase of the hydrological cycle.5 The high mountain ecosystems in the Indian Therefore, the term hydrology also includes the glaci- territory, also known as Indian Himalayan Region ological processes as part of hydrological cycle, but (IHR), need significant study and exploration due to due to distinguishing behavior of glaciers and its their vulnerability toward anthropogenic and climatic importance in hydrological regime, it has been sepa- factors. The ever-increasing population in this region rately termed as glaciological process and its study is marks an era of mankind’s dominance on ecosystem referred to as glaciology. The term glacio-hydrology services and life supporting systems.23 Excessive use defines both the glaciological processes as well as the and encroachment of the land resources have led to hydrological processes within a catchment. The form extensive degradation of natural landscapes, extinc- of precipitation coupled with snow- and glacier-melt tion of species, and loss of ecosystem functions and – are the most important hydrological processes in a services.24 26 Glacier retreat in these high mountains glacierized catchment. Therefore, to understand the is not just a physical process but it also affects the hydrology of a glacierized catchment, one needs to livelihood and economy of the downstream regions understand the processes like snow and glacier melt, with implications on the traditional knowledge and glacier dynamics, surface and subsurface hydrology, beliefs of the local communities.27,28 Because of the and energy and mass balance mechanisms. difficult terrain and harsh weather conditions, the Glacio-hydrology of mountainous catchments availability of observed data is scarce and fragmen- has significant implications on socioeconomic aspects ted, and the studies carried out in the IHR are very as well with changing climatic trends. Mountains few. This has increased the uncertainties and cover around 24% of the global surface area and restricted the understanding of probable impacts of sustain about 12% of the world’s population.6 changing climate in the region. Therefore, it is impor- Nearly 10% of the global population is dependent tant to carry out studies helpful in generating a data- on mountains directly for its livelihood while another base and reducing the uncertainties about the 40% depends indirectly on mountain ecosystems for changes observed in the IHR. This scientific timber and nontimber forest products, fresh water, approach is more important in case of the complex and river valley projects for industrial, agricultural, glacier systems which are the ultimate source of and domestic purposes.7,8 The Himalayan mountain water in the Himalayan rivers. Such studies can fur- range is the youngest and highest mountain range. It ther help in assessing the relationship between cli- has enormous fresh water storage in the form of mate parameters, contribution of glacier discharge, snow, glaciers, permafrost, natural lakes, wetlands, and the impact of climate change on the hydrology and natural springs and hence is known as the water of glacierized basins. In addition, they can provide tower of Asia. The mountains of High Asia the future scenarios of variation of streamflow in (Figure 1) or Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) have river basins, defining the prospective economy of this around 50% (by area) of all the glaciers falling out- region. The studies on changes in the biodiversity side the polar realm.10 There are approximately and ecosystem are also important as they serve as 54,000 glaciers in the HKH region, covering an area important ecological and economic resources for of about 60,000 km2 with nearly 6000 km3 of ice communities at local and regional scales. volume reserves.9 The rivers originating from these The present study is an attempt to analyze the mountains provide freshwater to support livelihood existing glacio-hydrological research carried out of people (~1.3 billion) living in densely populated across IHR. It provides an overview of the patterns – downstream regions.11 13 Because of latitudinal and and the effects of changing climate in IHR; changes altitudinal positions, the Himalayan glaciers are vul- observed or predicted for different indicators, nerable to even minute changes in temperature and namely, temperature and precipitation, and their patterns of precipitation.12 Several studies have impact on glaciers and river systems of the region are shown that the changing climate will have a negative emphasized upon. The study first discusses the study impact on snow and glacier melt, ultimately affecting area and its significance in terms of high population the water supply and storage capacity of the density and glacio-hydrological systems. In the fol- region.4,12,14 Various studies propose that most of lowing sections, the results of various studies on the the Himalayan glaciers are retreating, though the rate changes observed and predicted in temperature and of retreat varies both spatially and temporally, precipitation are discussed. The article further 394 ©2016WileyPeriodicals,Inc. Volume7,May/June2016 WIREs Climate Change Changing climate and glacio-hydrology 60°0'0''E 70°0'0''E 80°0'0''E 90°0'0''E 100°0'0''E N 40°0'0''N 40°0'0''N 30°0'0''N 30°0'0''N River basin Amudarya 20°0'0''N Brahmaputra Extent 20°0'0''N Ganga Indian state boundary Indus HKH glaciers 0 250 500 1,000 Irrawaddy HKH boundary Kilometers 60°0'0''E 70°0'0''E 80°0'0''E 90°0'0''E 100°0'0''E FIGURE 1 | Major river basins and glaciers in Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) adjoining Indian Himalayan Region (boundary after Bajracharya and Shrestha9). highlights the impact of changing climate on the gla- Indus and Ganges are the two river basins ori- ciers and streamflow regimes and their interrelation- ginating from the Himalaya, covering large part of ships in the IHR. The study also attempts to point the IHR. The Geological Survey of India, in 2008, out the areas of high uncertainty in the climatic and estimated 9575 glaciers in IHR, of which 7997 gla- physical proxies which require further investigation ciers covering an area of 33,679 km2 are in the Indus to draw any conclusion with confidence.
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