Governing power in

From coal crunch... to wind rush? ESRC climate change fellowship on the governance of clean dldevelopment Analytical framework

This research fuses a politica l economy approach with socio‐technical transitions in order to gain insights into electricity governance and policy‐making in ShSouth Afri ca Case studies

• Integrated resource plan for electricity • Medupi coal‐fired power plant South Africa electricity sector • National grid • Electricity sector: 90% coal • 50% of CO2 emissions • 70% access Minerals‐energy complex • Fine and Rustomjee (1996) “core site of accumulilation in the ShSouth Afri can economy” • historical dependence on cheap coal + cheap labour= cheap electricity for minerals export‐ oriented industry • Energy Intensive Users’ Group (36 members) consumes 44% of SA’s electricity • SA’ s major international mining and energy conglomerates e.g BHP Billiton, Anglo‐ American “uniquely dependent on electricity and uniquely eliilectricity‐ii”intensive”

Source: IBRD 2010:10 South Africa electricity • Supply side crisis in 2006/8‐ load shedding • No longer cheapest electricity in world • Climate change: Copenhagen: 34% below current emissions baseline by 2020 & 42% by 2025 monopoly • Generates 96% of national electricity • Sole transmitter of electricity via high‐voltage transmission grid. • Strategic position within the MEC is threa tene d by: elltiitectricity supply shhtortages, rising coal costs from private coal suppliers, funding crisis • Legislative changes to allow the introduction of independent power producers in renewable energy Southern Africa grid

Source: Eskom 2008 Knowledge gap 1 Inadequate analysis of politics and political economy in socio‐technical transitions Knowledge gap 2 A paucity of analysis of South Africa’s power sector from a critical political economy perspective in post‐apartheid era (Büscher 2009:2) Political economy perspective • Analysis of historical power relations, structural change & vested interests (Söderbaum 2004, Moe 2010). • Looks beyond the role of the state • Dynamics of gllblobal economic expansion, transnational corporations and multilateral institutions in governance. • Avoids ‘techno fix’ (Paterson 2005) and ‘policy fix’ (Büscher 2009) Socio‐technical transitions: Multi‐level perspective Research questions • How can ppperspectives from political economy contribute to a socio‐technical transitions framework in order to generate insights into governance and policy making in South Afri ca ’s eltiitlectricity sect?tor?

• To what extent do recent developments in South Africa’ s electricity sector represent a genuine shift in its minerals‐energy complex? New Renewables, more coal • Integrated Resource Plan for electricity, approved May 2011. • Doubling of generation capacity New renewables, more coal IRP 2010: demand forecast New renewables, more coal • ‘Technical advisory group’ on modelling process: coal miners, energy intensive users, Eskom and government. No renewable energy or civil society • MiMeetings and minutes confident ia l • Reveals the influential role that regime incumbents have over electricity governance • Technical electricity modelling can be inherently political Medupi: ‘clean coal’

April, 2009 July, 2009 Source: www.eskom.co.za •484.8 GW (Drax 4GW). In top 10 largest in world •‘clean coal’: super‐critical, FGD, ‘ccs‐ready’ •world’ s largest dry‐cooled coal‐fired power plant •Will emit 30 million tonnes of CO2 p.a World Bank loan to Eskom • $3,040 million to Medupi • $260 million for the 100 MW Sere and 100 MW Upington CSP plant • $440 million for “low carbon energy efficiency components” incllduding the Majuba Rail Project Medupi: ‘clean coal’ Eskom’s finance director said, that World Bank loan finance is...

“Catalytic for South Africa’s commitment to renewable energy and lower carbon technologies such as large‐scale solar thermal and wind power”

• Clean Development Mechanism credits Findings Some gains made by renewable energy niches Increase in coal, though cheap abundant coal‐ based trajectory no longer sustainable Vested interests in MEC are still strong WB fdifunding to MdMedup i: ““ifreinforc ing lldandscape development” (Geels and Schot 2007) Technological modifications and discourse in the form of “incremental innovations” (Scrase and Smith 2009) to preserve regime interests Findings CDM‐ landscape pressure serving regime interests rather than supporting nihiches Limited structural changes in regime’s architecture Methods • 60 semi‐structured interviews with: key government departments; wind IPPs; EIUG; technology manufacturers; national banks; lawyers; energy analysts; civil society; unions; Eskom; and energy regulator. • National policy documents, media articles, national law • Informal/ off‐record leading to formal sources Methods • Participant observation at business and civil society forums e.g Win d Energy Afri ca, IRP 2020 hearings, civil society Energy Caucus, Africa Energy, Parliamentary portfolio committee meetings, media briefings, union meetings... • Site viiitsits to DDliarling Win d Farm • Visit to Eskom’s Mega Watt Park A political economy ppperspective A critical political economy of , “studies and challenges the political and economic power structures that influence How (global and local) actors make energy decisions, how energy debates are framed more generally and eeploresxplores the deeper stru ctures behind energy production and consumption among different actors on different scales” (Büsc her 2009:2) .