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Togo Electrification Strategy

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Togo Electrification Strategy Togo electrification strategy Presentation | June 2018 Presentation This is: ▪ a strategy document supporting the Government’s vision for universal access by 2030 through the deployment of grid and non-grid solutions ▪ a roadmap showing the main milestones for strategy implementation in the short, medium and long terms This is not: ▪ A detailed technical study of the technological solutions to be implemented in each location 2 Table of contents Government's vision for universal electrification Current situation A new approach to universal electrification Roadmap Annexes 3 Government’s vision for universal electrification ▪ Togo recognizes that access to electricity is essential to its policy of inclusive economic development and growth and is a key pillar in the success of its new National Development Plan ▪ Togo’s ambition is for universal access by all its citizens by 2030, with 100% access over the next ten years – This will be achieved by an intelligent combination of grid extension with non-grid technologies (mini-grids and solar kits) – The national strategy is based on a cheapest solution approach to the technologies to be deployed in the country ▪ Togo’s achievement of universal access will use private sector investment from mainly public/private partnerships (PPPs) and targeted support that will, for example, give the most vulnerable access to electricity Togo’s approach aims to show that a country can be electrified in just twelve years SOURCE: Workshop with the main stakeholders 4 Togo is currently at a critical point in its electrification process Present xy % Electrification 2010-2016 2017 2018-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Business as usual Paradigm change Demonstration Acceleration Consolidation ▪ Grid based ▪ AT2ER formed ▪ New ▪ Mobilization of ▪ Continuing ▪ Public sector ▪ Introduction of electrification the additional deployment of management non-grid strategy financing the solution ▪ Review of the needed for electrification ▪ Private sector regulatory scaling strategy until involved in framework ▪ Multiplied calls universal electrification ▪ Introduction of for tender and access flagship project launches achieved programs ▪ Proof of regional leadership 2337% ~40% ~4050% 5075% 75100% 5 The Togo electrification strategy draws on numerous approaches NOT EXHAUSTIVE and sources of information Approach Illustration Description ▪ Geospatial model used to determine the most economical Geospatial electrification model for each model location in Togo ▪ Various benchmarks and case Benchmarks Mini-grid studies underpinning the and case modeling and operating model studies Solar kits assumptions Public ▪ Meetings with over 25 Togolese sector and international energy stakeholders to test the various Financial propositions within the strategy sector Meetings and identify additional sources of Energy finance firms Financial backers 6 Table of contents Government's vision for universal electrification Current situation A new approach to universal electrification Roadmap Annexes 7 The Togo electrification rate rose from 23% in 2010 to ~40% in 2017, almost exclusively through grid extension SHS Mini-Grid Grid Electrification rates 2010-2017, % +8% p.a. 36% ~40% 33% +6% p.a. 30% At the current rate 28% of electrification2, 26% 26% 23% universal access will not be achieved until ~2050, with less than 60% access by 2030 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 20171 1 2017 launch of 4 solar mini-grids (600 kWc) and installation of 2280 kits solar kits in 25 villages 2 Assumption of 39k households electrified p.a. in 2018, and 5% annual growth in the number of electrified households SOURCE: Togo Local Electrification Program 8 Almost 1M households in Togo, mainly in rural areas, are still without electricity Togo electrification rate Millions of electrified households, 2016 Electrification rate by region, 2010-2016 Not electrified Electrified 0-10% 11-20% 21-40% >40% 6% 8% 11% 0.9 1.5 Savanes 20% Kara 13% 16% 0.8 1.0 12% 14% 18% Centrale 0.6 0.1 0.1 9% 11% 14% Plateaux 0.4 0.5 9% 13% 20% 92% Urban Rural Total 63% 74% Maritime 80% 7% 36% Electrification rate Lomé 2010 13 2016 SOURCE: Togo Local Electrification Program, team analyses 9 Electrifying all households by 2030 would mean electrifying ~1.3M additional households, of which 0.9M in non-electrified areas Not electrified Electrified Number of households to be electrified Aspirations for universal (100%) Millions of households access to electrification ~0.6 ~2.1 0.4 ~1.3 million 2030 homes not 0.2 ~1.5 electrified in 2030, 1.3 or 113 000 2030 households 1.0 or ~7% of the population electrified every 2025 year (0.9 million in 0.7 non-electrified 0.5 areas2) 2017 Population 2030 growth1 1 Assumption: 1/3 of new households are in already electrified areas 2 Estimated 400k non-electrified households are in already electrified areas and need last-mile electrification SOURCE: CEET, INSEED data, press, team analysis 10 Electrifying 113 000 households p.a. to achieve universal access by 2030 may seem ambitious – but is realistic Togo requirement p.a. at 2030 Togo history History in other aspirational countries Connections p.a. (000 electrified households) % additional households connected p.a. Togo must almost triple its historic annual connection average by also ~113 Vietnam using non-grid solutions 4.9% (99-08) 56 Kenya 51 5.3% 47 (12-15) 39 32 ~39 28 19 South Africa 3.1% (94-04) 2011 12 13 14 15 16 2017 ~7% 286 # electrified households (000)1 549 1 Electrified households are both households that are official grid subscribers and those that are not officially connected (~x1.5 subscribing households ). The estimated number of persons in each household is 5, in line with 2010 INSEED estimates SOURCE: INSEED, CEET, Kenya power, press, WEO, EIU Canback 11 Table of contents Government's vision for universal electrification Current situation A new approach to universal electrification ▪ Market segmentation ▪ Business model ▪ Financing the vision Roadmap Annexes 13 If it is to triple the number of households electrified each year, Togo must use the latest technologies and business models Grid connection Mini-grids Domestic solar kits ▪ Connection to the national grid ▪ System powered by solar panels, ▪ System that uses solar power via managed by CEET diesel or hydro, able to supply a photovoltaic panels, can supply ▪ Cheapest option for densely number of households/SMEs an entire household or one SME populated areas near the grid ▪ Cheapest option for densely ▪ Cheapest option for areas not ▪ Traditional electrification model populated areas not near the grid densely populated and not near ▪ Might be connected to the national the grid grid in future ▪ Can be installed quickly and sized to fit the needs of the household concerned Generally private sector with Generally public sector Requires a PPP public sector support SOURCE: team analysis 14 To do this, we must rethink access to electricity in terms of service level for all technological solutions Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Daily ▪ Min 12 Wh ▪ Min 200 Wh ▪ Min 1000 Wh ▪ Min 3400 Wh ▪ Min 8200 Wh consumption Installed ▪ Min 3 W ▪ Min 50 W ▪ Min 200 W ▪ Min 800 W ▪ Min 2000 W capacity Devices ▪ Lighting for ▪ General lighting ▪ Level 2 plus ▪ Level 3 plus ▪ Level 4 plus work ▪ Phone charger medium-power high-power very high- ▪ Phone charger ▪ TV devices (e.g. devices (e.g. power devices ▪ Fan, if food mixer) microwave) (e.g. fridge) necessary Solar kits Mini-grids Minimum level set by the Togo Government Grid Togo has decided that an electrified household has access to: (i) modern lighting; (ii) a cellphone charger; and (iii) additional devices where this is possible and the household wants them. The installed capacity equivalent for this level of service is at least 20W SOURCE: Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined (ESMAP, 2015) 15 Geospatial modeling using digital mapping of Togo has identified for each locality a preliminary mix of the most suitable technological solutions, based on existing and projected demand Geospatial approach to the electrification strategy Main advantages ▪ Efficient – the method uses a cheapest solution approach for each locality, based on identified demand ▪ Dynamic – the model can cope with change, including change in technological solution prices to 2030 and population growth ▪ Transparent – the model uses objective criteria and accessible data ▪ Updatable – the model can be adjusted and updated in line with changes in the electrification program (e.g. grid extension) Current Solar Light Localities Selected grid radiation emissions technologies SOURCE: GIS model 16 ESTIMATES Result – To ensure universal electrification by 2030, almost 50% of the additional households could be connected using non-grid solutions Grid Last mile Mini-grids Solar kits extension grid1 Illustration of technology choices per locality (n=3248) Implications (for universal access by 2030) Total 21% ~270k Connections 1 % of new 31% ~400k households 4% ~55k electrified3 43% ~555k2 30% ~965 Localities % of new 0% N/A localities to be 10% ~315 electrified3 61% ~1970 44 Generation 64 Additional capacity (MW) 9 85 1 Last mile electrification through the grid of households currently without electricity but in localities connected to the grid 2 Includes households in ~11k small communities, excluding the 3248 localities identified 3 Does not total 100% because percentages have been rounded up/down SOURCE: geospatial model, team analyses 17 ESTIMATES The size of the country and low population density mean that grid extension and solar kits
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