ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.7, JULY 2014

THE EFFECTS OF THE ISIS OPERATIONS ON THE TURKMENS

Bİlgay Duman

he Islamic State of and the Levant (ISIS)1, which has dominated headlines, has been continuing its of- Mr. Bilgay Duman is a researcher at ORSAM, focusing on Middle Eastern Tfensive, causing a crisis among the people in areas in affairs, in particular Iraq. He has the northern part of Iraq, where it has captured. Especially been a doctoral candidate at the the Sunni Arabs and Turkmens are facing hard times in the International Relations Department in Abant İzzet Baysal University since cities under the ISIS, rule such as Mosul, Tel Afar, Salahaddin 2011. His master’s thesis was entitled and Diyala, in which they constitute the majority. The Sunni ‘Turkmens and Kirkuk in Post-Saddam Arabs, while being under risks due to the ISIS operations, are Era.’ Mr. Duman has published several articles and commentaries in various not under a direct threat. However, for the Turkmens, who academic and policy-oriented outlets, live in the same region as the Sunni Arabs, the ISIS advance as well as being interviewed widely constitutes both direct and indirect threats to their survival. by media. Mr. Duman has attended several conferences, has been to several field trips to the region, and served in UN elections observation teams in Iraq and Afghanistan. 1 ISIS declared the Caliphate on 29 June 2014 and changed its name to “the Islamic State.” However, this report prefers “ISIS,” which is more popularly used. THE EFFECTS OF THE ISIS OPERATIONS ON THE TURKMENS

The Characteristics of the a harsher stance. Therefore, ISIS Operations there is a threat and conflict po- tential for the Sunni Arabs and Currently, the areas under the Turkmens. the ISIS rule are mainly Sunni Arab territories. For this reason, The ISIS did not move its the security situation and living forces to Iraq all of a sudden. It conditions in these areas are fights against the PYD for the worsening, while the Iraqi gov- control of the territories, where ernment’s operations against the live, and against the ISIS inflict damages to the ci- Assad regime and the Free Syr- vilian population. Even though ian Army. Its actions in Syria it appears to enjoy the support evoked reactions by both the of some segments of the Sunni people and local groups. ISIS population, ISIS is intimidating used to move to Syria when it is the local Sunni communities, under pressure in Iraq and move based on its previous actions to Iraq when it faced pressure in in Syria. ISIS has started to Syria. However, ISIS acted in a look for dialogue opportunities more systematical way during with people and avoided harsh its offensive in June 2014. It actions although it stated “Ca- gathered support from anti-Ma- liphate Regulations”. However, liki groups, former Baathists, once ISIS reinforces its rule, it the Naqshbandis, tribes and lo- is highly likely that it will adopt cal people during its advance.

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Furthermore, it stimulated the and communities. For the peri- Ansar al Sunna, and the Iraqi od ahead, if these groups have al Qaeda to action in order to disagreements among them- bolster its forces and reach a selves or with ISIS, it is highly considerable amount of fight- likely there will be armed clash- ing potential. Besides, there had es, which will cause important been some social and political problems. developments in Iraq, which paved the way for ISIS’s ad- The Situation of the vance. The Sunnis started opt- Turkmens ing for radical measures due to several factors, such as the lack The ISIS rule in the territo- The Sunni Arabs of an all-encompassing polit- ries, where the Sunnis consti- and Turkmens ical organization for the Sun- tute the majority, form a direct are facing hard nis, the disagreements about and indirect threat for all other times in the communities in the region. The the leadership of the Sunnis, cities under the Turkmens are under the most se- and the pressure ISIS rule such as on the Sunni politicians. For rious threat. They mostly live in Mosul, Tel Afar, this reason, ISIS was not able or around the Sunni dwellings, to control its captured territo- which makes them vulnerable Salahaddin and ries on its own. It had to leave during the ISIS offensive. The Diyala, in which the control of these territories scattered Turkmen dwellings they constitute to local groups. Therefore, it across Iraq do not form a consis- the majority would be more precise to speak tent territory, nor are they fit for of a growing coalition under the protection and sheltering. There- leadership of ISIS. ISIS, as a fore, they face a multi-pronged mobile offensive force, moved threat against themselves. Mo- on after relinquishing the con- sul, Kirkuk, Salahaddin and Di- trol of the conquered territories yala, the cities under the ISIS to local groups. These groups rule, house a considerable Turk- are mostly influential groups men population. Since many in their territory and accept co- Turkmens in the north of Iraq operation with ISIS. As of the are Shiites, they are primary tar- current situation, ISIS remains gets for ISIS. The threat is even in the outer rim of , greater, because the Turkmens Tikrit and Diyala, which are are unarmed and unguarded, de- governed by tribes, local groups void of an armed group and be- 3 THE EFFECTS OF THE ISIS OPERATIONS ON THE TURKMENS

ing geographically segregated. khourmatou of the Salahaddin In addition, the areas that the province, Beledruz, Haneqin Turkmens live have great po- and Kifri townships of the Di- tential for conflict. First, despite yala province. These regions the fact that these areas have the were captured by either ISIS or Sunni majority, they also have a the Kurdistan Regional Govern- great diversity in terms of eth- ment (KRG) after the Iraqi gov- nic and sectarian groups, which ernment’s withdrawal in the face live together. Second, the oil of the ISIS offensive. The Kurds reserves in the north of Iraq are captured most of the disputed inside the Turkmen areas. Third, territories in this period; there- these areas are the main subject fore the ISIS offensive has been of dispute between the Kurdish advantageous for them. In the Regional Government and the following period, if the Kurds Iraqi government. The disputed transform the de facto situation territories encompass the cities to a de jure form, the Turkmen and districts, where the Turk- areas will be under the KRG mens live. The Turkmens live in rule. It is known that the Turk- the four (out of seven) districts mens are displeased with such a of Mosul, in entire Kirkuk, Tuz- prospect.

Disputed territories in Iraq according to UNAMI

GOVERNORATE -DISTRICT

District Border Governorate Border Country Border

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Moreover, the Peshmarga their homes. ISIS oppressed the and ISIS did not have a major Sunni Turkmens as well. There- fight, except for some minor fore, almost all the Turkmen skirmishes as of today. That is population of Tel Afar, which because their respective inter- amounted to almost 230,000, ests do not clash yet. It is likely had to flee, except for the old, that ISIS will move to those ar- sick and disabled people. eas under the Peshmarga control Besides, the Shiite Turkmens such as Kirkuk after it has con- in the central Mosul are under solidated its current territorial the oppression of ISIS. ISIS gains. For example, Tuzkhur- threatens the villages of Şerihan, matou is under the Peshmarga Karakoyun and Kubbük in the ISIS acted control, where mostly Shiite rural Mosul, where the Turk- in a more Turkmens used to live. If ISIS mens live. Moreover, the Iraqi systematical moves against the Turkmens in government’s aerial operations way during its Tuzkhurmatou, it will be a test against ISIS in Tal Afar caused offensive in June for power and good will for the civilian casualties among the 2014. It gathered Peshmarga about protecting the Turkmens. Thus, the Turkmens Turkmens. The Turkmens, who support from are vulnerable to almost all kinds anti-Maliki fled from Tal Afar, are not admit- of developments in Iraq. ted by the KRG on the grounds groups, former Tuzkhurmatou, since 2011, that the KRG does not have ade- Baathists, the has been the site of bombings, quate capacity. Some Turkmens Naqshbandis, shootings and fighting. Even are sheltered in the three tem- though the Peshmarga con- tribes and local porary camps just outside the trols the city, it is vulnerable to people during its KRG borders. Turkmens do not the ISIS threat. Therefore the advance receive substantive aid from the Turkmen villages of Yengice, KRG and the Iraqi government, Biravcılı, Çardaklı, Karanaz, and they try to survive on the Köküz and Bastamlı are invad- limited aid provided by Turkey ed by ISIS. And also the Amirli and the UN. district, which houses a Turkmen ISIS moved to Tal Afar after majority, is under a blockade by Mosul and attacked the Shiite ar- ISIS. eas multiple times. Almost all of Thus, the Turkmens are be- the Shiite Turkmens had to flee sieged by several threats. On

5 THE EFFECTS OF THE ISIS OPERATIONS ON THE TURKMENS

Internal Displacement in Iraq after ISIS Operations Source: The Mission of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

the one hand, ISIS openly tar- ISIS, will be more vulnerable if gets the Turkmens and their ISIS and the KRG or the KRG dwellings. On the other hand, and the Iraqi government start the Peshmarga has acquired the fighting. control of the Turkmen dwell- ings. Even though the Peshmar- The Situation of Kirkuk ga does not directly threaten the Turkmens, the Kurdish pressure The lack of balance in on the Turkmens is increased Kirkuk increases the possibil- by the capture of Kirkuk by the ity for a conflict as discussed Peshmarga. The Turkmens, who above. Kirkuk has been under are already being harmed by the the Kurdish and Peshmarga government operations against threat since 2003 and its demo- 6 ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS NO.7, JuLy 2014 graphic and political structure with a fait-accompli, the Turk- has undergone a transforma- mens will face additional prob- tion. Its population, which was lems. There will be new dy- 830,000 in 2003, has risen to namics for conflicts. If the Iraqi 1,169,171 in 2014 in official government gains the upper numbers, and with the unreg- hand against the ISIS, it is pos- istered people it surpasses 1.5 sible that the Peshmarga control million. The increase in the in Kirkuk will be challenged. In population of Kirkuk is in favor addition, the Arabs of Kirkuk of the Kurds, which upsets the oppose the Kurdish control in social, political and economic Kirkuk as well. Kirkuk, which balance in the city. The Turk- is located in the heart of the Turkmens do mens and the local Arabs are north-south direction in Iraq, not receive displeased and worried about is unlikely to be abandoned as substantive aid this situation. Barzani’s recent a result of a unilateral action from the KRG statements such as “Kirkuk is a of one side, which distorts its and the Iraqi Kurdish territory, it will remain administrative, social, politi- government, in Kurdistan” create discontent cal and economic structure. It and disquiet among the Turk- might cause a multilateral con- and they try mens. flict. In addition to the Pesh- to survive on the limited aid While the center of Kirkuk marga, the security in Kirkuk is under the Peshmarga control is maintained by the local Kirkuk provided by relatively safe for Turkmens, police as well, which mostly Turkey and the the surrounding villages are consists of Kurdish people. A UN under the ISIS threat. As ISIS unilateral act against Kirkuk moved against Tazekhurmatou might cause a major upheaval. and the village of Beşir, it killed The Turkmens state that they all the men there and treated are going to fight for Kirkuk in the women in most inhumane the case of a Kurdish unilateral ways. Beşir remains under the annexation. ISIS control and ISIS destroyed Another problem is the pos- the Turkmens’ graveyards and sibility that a clash in Kirkuk their holy places. The villages will spread to other Turkmen of Yayçı and Türkalan are under areas. If it happens, the Turk- the ISIS threat as well. mens will be facing a greater If the KRG annexes Kirkuk threat. Therefore the KRG is expected to act responsibly and 7 THE EFFECTS OF THE ISIS OPERATIONS ON THE TURKMENS

pay attention to the other groups Turkey has undergone a lot of in Kirkuk. The KRG, which difficulties concerning politics maintains good relations with and method, while reaching out Turkey, has to act more care- the Turkmens. The Iraqi gov- fully about the protection of the ernment considered Turkey’s Turkmens’ rights. attention towards the Turkmens The developments in Kirkuk as interfering in its domestic after 2003 and the effect of the affairs. In Iraq, Turkey’s each sectarian rift on the Turkmens move in favor of the Turkmens have hindered the real potential has run the risk of creating addi- of the Turkmens. In Iraq, there tional costs for them. Therefore, is an important Turkmen popu- after 2010, when Turkey’s re- lation, who defends its territory lations with Iraq were strained, and wants to have a say in the there was extra pressure against future of their country. the Turkmens. Not only the gov- ernment, but also the Arabs and Kurds pressure the Turkmens The Turkmens and Turkey because of Turkey’s aid. How- after the ISIS Offensive ever, Turkey continues sending The Turkmens have never aid to the Turkmens after the severed their ties with Turkey. ISIS offensive. Turkey’s Disas- Turkey has always maintained ter and Emergency Manage- its attention on the Turkmens. ment Presidency (AFAD) and

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Red Crescent send humanitari- Sunnis may establish a federal an aid to the Turkmens, though political structure in their own it is not sufficient for almost regions. In this respect, it is pos- 350,000 displaced Turkmens. sible for both Sunnis and Shi- Some Turkish non-governmen- ites to establish federal units. It tal organizations provide aid to is known that al Hakim sought the Turkmens as well. Howev- to establish a “Shiiteistan” er, the Turkmens need political consisting of nine provinces in support and protection, besides the south of Iraq back in 2004- humanitarian aid. They are left 2006. The majority of the oil unguarded, since they do not reserves in Iraq remain in the have an armed militia. Under south, where the Shiites live. Turkey’s Disaster these circumstances, they seek Since they do not have an eco- and Emergency to achieve protection through nomic disadvantage, the Shiites Management their own limited capacities and may be comfortable about au- Presidency guard their houses and neigh- tonomy. (AFAD) and Red borhoods. Neither the KRG nor Therefore, the major prob- Crescent send the Iraqi government is able to lem is about the Sunni Arabs and humanitarian aid protect them. the Turkmens. Since the Turk- to the Turkmens, men dwellings overlap with the though it is not Conclusion and disputed territories, they will be sufficient for Evaluation further segregated in the case of a federal or confederate Iraq. almost 350,000 The ISIS offensive in June Some Turkmens will remain in displaced 2014 started a new process in the Kurdish region, while oth- Turkmens Iraq, while at the same time ers will remain in the Shiite or increasing the pressure on the Sunni regions. Such a rift will Turkmens. In Iraq, nothing will directly influence Syria, Turkey be as it was before the ISIS of- and Iran. fensive. Iraq may adopt a loose federal structure or a confeder- This situation shows the im- ation. For the Kurds, the cur- portance of Turkey’s policy to- rent situation is advantageous. wards Iraq, which stands for its They strongly state their histor- territorial integrity and political ical ideal of “independence.” unity. This stance is import- In addition, as long as the ISIS ant for the Iraqi government. remains an active force, the Turkey has always advised the 9 THE EFFECTS OF THE ISIS OPERATIONS ON THE TURKMENS

Turkmens to defend their so- Turkmens will be more active cial, political, cultural, legal and in the central Iraqi politics. For economic rights in accordance the period ahead, Turkey may with the territorial integrity and spend efforts for making Kirkuk political unity of Iraq. After a province with a special status. Turkey developed good rela- Turkey may also push for mak- tions with the KRG after 2009, ing Tel Afar a province; how- the Turkmen-Kurdish relations ever the precondition for that is developed and the Turkmens stability and consensus within found space to operate with- Iraq. A consensus in the domes- in the KRG’s political system. tic politics of Iraq alone will not Turkey may achieve a similar be sufficient to achieve these result with the Iraqi govern- results. It will be essential to ment as well. If Iraq achieves reach regional and international stability, it is possible that the consensus on Iraq.

ORSAM is an independent think-tank specializing on Middle Eastern affairs. ORSAM seeks to diversify sources of knowledge on the region and establish a channel of communication between the local experts and Turkish academic and policy circles. Toward that end, ORSAM facilitates the exchanges of officials, academics, strategists, journalists, businesspeople and members of civil society from the region with their Turkish counterparts. ORSAM conducts studies on the regional developments and disseminates their results to the policy and academic circles as well as the wider public through various publication outlets. ORSAM publications include books, reports, bulletins, newsletters, policy briefs, conference minutes and two journals Ortadoğu Analiz and Ortadoğu Etütleri. © Content of this report is copyrighted to ORSAM. Except reasonable and partial quotation and use under the Act No. 5846, Law on Intellectual and Artistic Works, via proper citation, the content may not be used or re-published without prior permission by ORSAM. The views expressed in this report reflect only the opinions of its authors and do not represent the institutional opinion of ORSAM.

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