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E-Commerce: Last Mile Industrial! Final Delivery: The Last Mile ULI Fall Meeting: E-Commerce Session • Curtis Spencer, IMS Worldwide Inc. • Chris Caton, Prologis • Ben Conwell, Cushman Wakefield U.S. E-Commerce Retail Sales Forecast 2014-2018 $500 9% 8.46% 7.99% $448.5 $450 7.52% 8% 7.26% $409.8 $400 7% 6.40% $372.5 $350 $341.8 6% $304.1 $300 5% $250 4% $200 3% $150 2% $100 $50 1% $0 0% 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 Total US E-commerce Sales $B Ecommerce is Growing Target fulfilled 30 percent of its online orders from stores in Q4 as well as netting a record number of online customers who picked up their orders in person over the holiday season. Online sales for Target in Q4 jumped 34 percent. Amazon had its biggest holiday shopping season ever in 2015, and grew 26 percent in net sales. www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Amazon Growth • Predicted Amazon sales: 7.2 billion items in 2016, 12.6 billion items in 2020. • Opened 28 sorting centers, 59 delivery stations, and 65 Prime Now hubs. • Expected to build a logistics supply chain that others can use over next 10-15 years. www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Infill Requirements and Geography Considerations www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting InFill Requirements and Considerations • InFill facilities are small(er) fulfillment centers built in dense urban areas that are filled only with the best selling items • InFill facilities support delivery of goods to customers who want one and two hour delivery timeframes • Infill land is located in a city and has usually already been developed, but is now vacant and can be re-purposed for new users www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Cornerstone, “Anchor” Cities 1. New York City 2. Los Angeles 3. Chicago 4. Washington, DC/Baltimore 5. San Francisco 6. Dallas 7. Atlanta 8. Seattle www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Ecommerce Fulfillment Center www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Inside the “BIG BOX” Fulfillment Center www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Complimentary “Second Ring” Cities 1. Charlotte 2. Boston 3. Philadelphia 4. Miami 5. Houston 6. Detroit 7. Phoenix 8. Minneapolis 9. San Diego 10. Orlando 11. St. Louis 12. Columbus www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Last Mile Logistics www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting What is the Last Mile? From the last point of distribution or sortation to Amazon, last mile means the final destination at a within 2—4 hours. Next home or business. Day = order by midnight, get it by noon-5 next day. WalMart, order today, receive Most others say it means: shipment tomorrow, second order by noon, delivery today day or three-to-five day before 8PM; inventory and delivery depending on final logistics have to be delivery zip code compressed to accomplish this! www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Amazon Prime Air Boeing 767 “It’s not that we are trying to take over (delivery). We will take all the capacity that the US Postal Service and that UPS can give us, and we still need to supplement it.” – Jeff Bezos www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Last Mile Robotics www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting Amazon Prime Now Over the last three years, Amazon has opened 60 Prime Now Hubs and fresh delivery stations. Prime Now Hubs are fulfillment centers built in dense urban areas filled with that metro area’s specific bestselling items. www.imsw.com Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting ULI Fall Meeting E-Commerce CHRIS CATON Senior Vice President, Research 16 Five Observations on E-Commerce & Logistics Real Estate Global Phenomenon Great diversity of customers Yet, relatively few specific use-cases High intensity of use Consistent evolution of user requirements 17 A Global Phenomenon E-Commerce Sales, Global E-Commerce Share of Retail Sales ($,Bar trillions) chart title (12pt bold Arial, color: r25 g25 b25) (%)Pie chart title (12pt bold Arial, color: r25 g25 b25) (Bar chart subtitle: 8pt Arial, color: r82 g84 b87) (Pie chart subtitle: 8pt Arial, color: r82 g84 b87) 5.0 25 2010 2015 2020 15,000 4.5 Bold 10,000 8pt Arial 4.0 20Pie labels 8pt Arial Data labels 5,000 3.5 Bold Legend font color Same as 3.0 0 15 Axis font color Same as Subtitle color Subtitle color 2.5 Table title (Style same as chart) Table title (Style same as chart) 2.0(Subtitle style same as chart) (Subtitle10 style same as chart) Header style: 10pt bold Arial Header style: 10pt bold Arial 1.5 $ % $ % 1.0Table text style 9pt r82 g84 b87 5Table text style 9pt r82 g84 b87 xxxxxxxxxx x,xxx x,xxx xxxxxxxxxx x,xxx x,xxx 0.5 xxxxxxxxxx x,xxx x,xxx xxxxxxxxxx x,xxx x,xxx 0.0xxxxxxxxxx x,xxx x,xxx 0xxxxxxxxxx x,xxx x,xxx US Western Japan China Latin xxxxxxxxxx x,xxx x,xxx xxxxxxxxxx Europe x,xxx Americax,xxx 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Source: e-Marketer, Prologis Research Source: Goldman Sachs, Prologis Research 18 Diversity Among the Industry’s Customers Distribution of E-Commerce Retailers by Online Revenues, U.S. (%) Smaller Retailers (<$250M) 13% Major Online Retailers (>$5B) 40% Midsized Retailers ($250M-5B) 47% Source: Internet Retailer, Prologis Research 19 Yet, Five Basic Customer Profiles Mega Brands Large Brands Emergent Brands Transportation / Parcel Post Third Party Logistics Providers 20 High Intensity of Use Real Estate Footprint by Retailer Type Brick and Mortar Real Estate Footprint: 2.8 MSF E-Commerce Real Estate Footprint: 1.0 MSF 21 Well Worn Path of Customer Requirement Evolution Real Estate Requirements as Customers Scale their Operations INCUBATION PHASE SCALING PLATFORM TAKE-OFF <$250M USD SALES $250-$500M USD SALES >$500M USD SALES Operations either occur in the Retailers tend to consolidate E-fulfilment operations require multiple major distribution centers, requiring multiple existing supply chain (for brick-and- their fulfilment operations into millions of square feet across several (or many) distribution centers mortar retailers) or leverage 3PLs a single 500K SF to 1M SF and/or exist within a handful of small facility locations 22 Greater Capacity to be Local Major Online Retailers by Revenue ($, billions, all online retailers with >$5B annual online sales) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 US Europe Asia Lat Am 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 2010 2015 2020 Source: Internet Retailer Note: Forward estimates growth individual company revenues at the expected national average pace. Actual results will be different. 23 Implications Considerable growth continues High diversity of requirements Shifting geographic needs 24 Non-Solicitation - Any securities discussed herein or in the accompanying presentations, if any, with respect to existing or potential joint venture funds, partnerships or other such entities, have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 or the securities laws of any state and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements under the Securities Act and any applicable state securities laws. Any such announcement does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities discussed herein or in the presentations, if and as applicable. www.prologis.com 25 26.
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