ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS
City of Saco, ME
DEC EMBER 2020
PREPARED BY:
120 West Avenue, Suite 303 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 518.899.2608 www.camoinassociates.com ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS ...... 4 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC PROFILE ...... 19 RETAIL SNAPSHOT ...... 25 RESIDENTIAL SNAPSHOT...... 34 OFFICE SNAPSHOT ...... 41 INDUSTRIAL SNAPSHOT ...... 44 COMPETITIVENESS ASSESSMENT ...... 46 WHAT WE HEARD ...... 51 ACTION PLAN...... 54 APPENDICES ...... 57
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY
The City of Saco has invested in an Economic Development Market Analysis to deepen its understanding of the local and regional economic and real estate market environment to inform economic development policies and strategies that are focused on what actions the City can take. Camoin 310 and our partner Frank O’Hara worked in conjunction with the City of Saco staff in a collaborative process to gain insight into Saco’s existing challenges and competitive advantages. The following sections comprise the market analysis:
Economic Base Analysis | The base analysis is an in-depth examination of industry trends by employment, wages, concentration, and gross regional product to create a baseline of information. This analysis homed in on the sectors that pose the greatest strength for the City of Saco.
Demographic and Socioeconomic Profile | The profile examined historic and projected trends for population, households, age, incomes, and other demographic factors that help to inform the market analysis.
Real Estate Snapshot | The City of Saco’s diversity and availability of options within the retail, residential, office, and industrial markets were examined in the retail snapshot. This snapshot outlined market supply and demand.
Competitive Assessment | To understand Saco’s role and standing in the regional economy, we compared municipal economic indicators for Saco to several other communities in the region: Biddeford, Westbrook, Gorham, Scarborough, Portland, South Portland, and Falmouth.
Business Development Strategy Survey | A public survey was employed to solicit feedback from the community on perceptions of Saco’s quality of life, business offerings, and economic development direction. (See Appendix C)
Stakeholder Interviews | As part of the Economic Development Market Analysis, the City of Saco staff and Camoin 310 conducted interviews with key stakeholders including business leaders, developers, investors, etc. The stakeholder interviews provide valuable information on public perceptions, specific challenges and opportunities, and other detailed information that informs the data analysis.
Challenges and Opportunities | The aforementioned components culminated in the creation of the challenges and opportunities section of the report, which outlines the major themes and serves as the foundation for the Action Plan. Please note that data projections outlined below do not factor in the economic impact of COVID-19. While some projections are included, the focus of the analysis is on historic and current trends that shape market opportunities for the City of Saco.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
KEY TAKEAWAYS & RECOMMENDATIONS Important takeaways from the analysis of the economy and real estate market in the City of Saco include:
INCREASE RESILIENCY THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION Saco has strong levels of incomes, education, and age demographics; however, it is exporting professional and technical jobs and importing retail and service jobs. This matters because most people engaging with Saco’s economy are only doing so through one channel – they are either living here, OR working here, few do both. This can be considered a threat because an economy based on a single, highly volatile, sector (i.e. retail), is less resilient than a diverse economy, which can adapt more capably to market trends.
ROLE OF CITY: COMMUNICATOR & CONNECTOR The City of Saco's strength in supporting real estate development is acting as the communicator and connector. The City should avoid, when possible, property acquisition for economic development - the City is not a developer. This is because it can be risky, and therefore better handled by the market. The City's primary role is to communicate about properties, assets and opportunities, and connecting businesses and developers with those properties and sites.
FOCUS ATTRACTION EFFORTS ON INDUSTRY SECTORS WITH LOCAL AND REGIONAL STRENGTH Industry sectors with strength and opportunity for success in Saco include Health Care/Medical Services, Manufacturing, and Professional & Technical Services.
Light Industrial, Manufacturing, & Logistics | This sector has a strong tradition in the region and state with historical growth. It includes a blend of small and large businesses in food production, aerospace, medical and life sciences related manufacturing, and textiles. Growth opportunity are present in the cross section of logistics and manufacturing. Pre-COVID, demand was for small flex spaces under 10,000 SF, with loading docks, which is not available in the market and price-prohibitive to build. During COVID and post- COVID, this market gap is likely to increase, with increased demand for warehouse and logistics. Professional & Technical Services | This sector is small in size but has historic and projected growth with higher than average wages in emerging industries. It includes business services such as engineering, information technology, research and development, and media and business services. Pre-COVID, there were slight increases in office space demand and supply; however, post-COVID there is great uncertainty with likely greater supply than demand and a market shift to low-density office space options. Health Care/Medical Services | This is a large and growing sector that is projected to advance, both locally and regionally. The challenge is increasing opportunities for mid-higher earning occupations. Saco is located between two major medical areas: the hospital in Biddeford and the healthcare network in Portland. The opportunity for Saco is outpatient specialty services and healthcare related offices. Medical office space is strong and growing locally and regionally today. Industry projections support increased demand. Work to attract health service providers like Biddeford-Saco Dental Associates that offer attractive career opportunities and jobs in the healthcare field, as well as investment in new office locations that create demand and synergies located within commercial districts.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
CONTINUE TO FILL EXISTING BUSINESS PARKS WITHOUT EXPANDING One of the critical questions driving this study was “Should we expand the business parks and work to attract modern amenities in the parks?”
What we found through our research and analysis is that businesses who are in Saco’s business parks today are happy with their location even though the parks themselves lack many of the amenities that more modern park do. Employers and employees in the parks feel well served by the diverse amenities and retail offerings available in Saco.
Regarding the question of expansion of the parks, the market analysis found that the supply of industrial space in the region continues to be limited, and the demand for that type of space is moderate. There are growth opportunities in the cross section of logistics and manufacturing; however, this demand is not significant enough to justify an expansion of Saco’s business parks considering the availability of privately-owned sites on the market currently.
Therefore, our recommendation is to focus on attracting businesses within the opportunity sectors to existing park properties. Do not expand business parks or dedicate resources to attracting amenities to the parks.
CONNECT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND LAND USE PLANNING How the City handles land use and zoning, including addressing parking challenges and traffic congestion, will go a long way to connecting businesses and employees to the amenities that they desire.
While the expansion of a general business park – paid for by the City – is not justified based on the limited market demand; we recommend focusing on signature projects that include:
Significant mixed-use development that integrates housing and commercial uses Riverfront projects All of this should be done with the City continuing to lead planning and zoning, as well as communicating to the private sector how the City’s vision and goals align with market opportunities, and connecting businesses and developers with projects.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS
Based on the economic, industry, and business data outlined below, the following industry groups represent the greatest strength for the City of Saco:
Health Care (NAICS 62 Health Care and Social Assistance): The Health Care and Social Assistance industry Factors for Considering is the largest industry by employment in the City of Saco. Industry Strength Saco’s Health Care industry has lower than average earnings • at $42,000 per job, compared to the surrounding two-county Number of jobs region ($63,900 per job) and state ($59,200 per job). Lower • Employment growth, past and earnings can be attributed to Saco’s high concentration of projected Personal Care Aides, which have hourly earnings of $12.21, • Employment concentrated (LQ) thus driving down earning figures in the city. Personal Care • Business establishments Aides is the top occupation in Saco with 325 jobs in 2019, up • Wages 28% since 2014. Residential Intellectual and Developmental • Occupation/talent skills and Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities are education also highly concentrated in Saco with a location quotient
(LQ)1 of 8.44. Jobs in this industry grew from 224 in 2014 to 311 in 2019 and are projected to continue growing. The largest Health Care establishment in Saco is Evergreen Rehabilitation & Living Center, a nursing home with 80 employees. As the population is projected to age, demand for health care services will increase and contribute to industry growth. Other establishments include Sweetser and Spurwink, which focus on behavioral health and disability services. Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33): Between 2014 and 2019, the Manufacturing sector expanded by 78 jobs within Saco for a growth rate of 13%. Manufacturing growth has been driven by the Small Arms, Ordnance, and Ordnance Accessories Manufacturing sector and the Roped, Cordage, Twine, Tire Cord, and Tire Fabric Mills sector, which are both significantly concentrated with LQs of 220.0 and 328.49, respectively. Seafood Product Preparation and Packing also has a high LQ at 37.76, and growth in this industry has been driven by the recent development of Ready Seafood, the largest lobster processing plant in Maine.2 Manufacturing has a significant presence throughout the two-county region and, therefore, there are regional assets that Saco can draw on to drive growth. This includes food production, aerospace, medical and life sciences related manufacturing, and textiles. Manufacturing is typically tied to an economy’s Wholesale Trade sector. Within Saco, the Wholesale Trade industry experienced a historic decline in Grocery and Related Product Merchant Wholesalers. Professional and Technical Services (NAICS 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Service and NAICS 52 Finance and Insurance): Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services has been the primary driver of growth in this sector, increasing from 183 jobs in 2014 to 277 jobs in 2019. Depository Credit Intermediation also grew from 233 jobs in 2014 to 256 jobs in 2019. Both industries are projected to
1 Location quotient (LQ) is a measure of industry concentration, indicating how concentrated a certain sector is in a given area of study, relative to the nation. It can reveal what makes a particular region “unique” in comparison with the national average. A location quotient greater than 1 indicates that sector employment in the study area is more concentrated than it is at the national level. 2 Maine’s largest lobster processing plant opens. September 6, 2020. https://www.mainebiz.biz/article/maines-largest- lobster-processing-plant-opens
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
continue growing into the future. York and Cumberland Counties had strong growth in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry, expanding 16% from 2014 to 2024. Despite its small size relative to the nearby cluster in Boston, life science research and development and related manufacturing has gained strength in South Maine. The research and development assets in Saco include Maine Molecular Quality Controls and New Earth Ecological Consulting with Maine Medical Center Research Institution, University of New England, Idexx, ClearH2O, and others nearby. Computer Systems Design and Related Services is strong in terms of jobs and growth at the two-county level. Average earnings in this sector rank above average at approximately $75,000 per job. Retail, Arts, and Accommodations and Food Services (NAICS 44 Retail Trade, NAICS 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and NAICS 72 Accommodation and Food Services): Retail Trade is the largest driver of Saco’s economy with over $103.2 million in GRP or 13% of the total GRP. Saco is home to Fun Town, Splash Town, Monkey Trunks, and a variety of other establishments that contribute to the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation industry. The concentration of these recreational assets creates a regional draw and contributes to a high location quotient of 16.38 for Amusement Parks and Arcades. Overall, occupations that fall within the Retail, Arts, and Accommodations and Food Services sector have grown since 2014 and are projected to continue adding jobs into 2024. Most of the occupations within this sector are lower-earning, including Retail Salespersons with average hourly earnings of $14.42 and Waiters and Waitresses with average hourly earnings at $14.67.
ECONOMIC DATA AND TRENDS The table below displays jobs by the 2-digit industry sector for the Saco ZIP Code in 2014 and 2019, as well as 2024 projections that were made before the COVID-19 crisis. As of 2019, there were approximately 9,300 jobs in Saco. The largest industries by employment are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, and Government. Between 2014 and 2019, Saco experienced 5% job growth, which was slightly higher than the state’s 4% job growth and lower than York and Cumberland Counties 7% job growth.
Saco (04072) Jobs by Industry, 2014 - 2024 2014 - 2014 - 2019 - 2019 - A vg. Location NAICS Description 2014 Jobs 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs 2019 2019 % 2024 2024 % Earnings Quotient Change Change Change Change Per Job 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0% 0.00 $ - 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0% 0.00 $ - 22 Utilities 26 35 34 9 35% (1) (3%) 1.10 $ 62,161 23 Construction 484 517 520 33 7% 3 1% 0.98 $ 48,644 31 Manufacturing 618 696 690 78 13% (6) (1%) 0.94 $ 71,020 42 Wholesale Trade 567 363 323 (204) (36%) (40) (11%) 1.06 $ 75,272 44 Retail Trade 1,068 1,154 1,197 86 8% 43 4% 1.24 $ 50,730 48 Transportation and Warehousing 173 235 270 62 36% 35 15% 0.68 $ 47,949 51 Information 66 87 87 21 32% 0 0% 0.51 $ 41,173 52 Finance and Insurance 305 343 348 38 12% 5 1% 0.92 $ 73,137 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 119 115 116 (4) (3%) 1 1% 0.73 $ 40,578 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 468 556 601 88 19% 45 8% 0.90 $ 75,996 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 116 126 137 10 9% 11 9% 0.94 $ 95,680 Administrative and Support and Waste 56 684 616 612 (68) (10%) (4) (1%) 1.06 $ 35,858 Management and Remediation Services 61 Educational Services 472 504 548 32 7% 44 9% 2.10 $ 46,348 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,254 1,322 1,335 68 5% 13 1% 1.11 $ 41,775 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 385 404 413 19 5% 9 2% 2.47 $ 22,889 72 Accommodation and Food Services 862 928 959 66 8% 31 3% 1.16 $ 26,809 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 378 397 404 19 5% 7 2% 0.90 $ 33,620 90 Government 861 936 967 75 9% 31 3% 0.67 $ 81,091 Total 8,904 9,333 9,560 429 5% 227 2% $ 52,024 Source: EMSI
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Industry trends in Saco were compared to trends in York and Cumberland Counties (i.e. the “two-county region”) and Maine to identify specific strengths in the local and regional economies to draw from. The economic base of Saco is generally comparable to the economic base of the two-county region in terms of industry make-up. Overall, average earnings per job in Saco ($52,024) lag average earnings in the two-county region ($59,973) and state ($54,766). This is partially driven by Saco’s high concentration of jobs in Retail, Accommodation, Food Services, Arts, and Entertainment industries, which have lower than average earnings per job. The tables below outline industry trends from 2014 to 2019 and 2024 projections for those geographies.
York and Cumberland Counties Jobs by Industry, 2014 - 2024 2014 - 2014 - 2019 - 2019 - A vg. Location NAICS Description 2014 Jobs 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs 2019 2019 % 2024 2024 % Earnings Quotient Change Change Change Change Per Job 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1,786 2,433 2,842 647 36% 409 17% 0.71 $ 38,766 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 105 90 85 (15) (14%) (5) (6%) 0.07 $ 76,492 22 Utilities 529 463 429 (66) (12%) (34) (7%) 0.46 $ 135,576 23 Construction 15,942 17,196 17,545 1,254 8% 349 2% 1.03 $ 56,917 31 Manufacturing 16,883 20,437 20,889 3,554 21% 452 2% 0.88 $ 77,954 42 Wholesale Trade 9,164 9,298 9,112 134 1% (186) (2%) 0.86 $ 81,393 44 Retail Trade 32,934 32,784 31,433 (150) (0%) (1,351) (4%) 1.12 $ 36,424 48 Transportation and Warehousing 7,624 7,526 7,125 (98) (1%) (401) (5%) 0.68 $ 52,125 51 Information 3,842 4,145 4,045 303 8% (100) (2%) 0.77 $ 70,343 52 Finance and Insurance 13,597 15,284 15,607 1,687 12% 323 2% 1.29 $ 100,807 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 4,497 4,868 4,940 371 8% 72 1% 0.97 $ 51,831 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 15,490 17,973 19,801 2,483 16% 1,828 10% 0.92 $ 86,742 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 5,021 6,312 6,922 1,291 26% 610 10% 1.48 $ 114,683 Administrative and Support and Waste 56 14,102 14,349 14,592 247 2% 243 2% 0.78 $ 43,749 Management and Remediation Services 61 Educational Services 9,507 9,440 10,056 (67) (1%) 616 7% 1.24 $ 44,730 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 42,826 45,038 46,469 2,212 5% 1,431 3% 1.20 $ 63,851 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 5,119 5,458 5,609 339 7% 151 3% 1.06 $ 27,926 72 Accommodation and Food Services 26,264 29,023 30,262 2,759 11% 1,239 4% 1.14 $ 27,883 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 12,740 13,531 14,066 791 6% 535 4% 0.97 $ 33,218 90 Government 38,251 39,747 39,703 1,496 4% (44) (0%) 0.90 $ 73,778 Total 276,225 295,395 301,533 19,170 7% 6,138 2% $ 59,973 Source: EMSI
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Maine Jobs by Industry, 2014 - 2024 2014 - 2014 - 2019 - 2019 - A vg. Location NAICS Description 2014 Jobs 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs 2019 2019 % 2024 2024 % Earnings Quotient Change Change Change Change Per Job 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 14,608 15,006 15,078 398 3% 72 0% 1.82 $ 45,781 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 196 217 241 21 11% 24 11% 0.07 $ 74,706 22 Utilities 1,583 1,655 1,643 72 5% (12) (1%) 0.69 $ 123,064 23 Construction 41,599 44,121 44,909 2,522 6% 788 2% 1.10 $ 52,768 31 Manufacturing 51,937 54,562 53,456 2,625 5% (1,106) (2%) 0.97 $ 70,215 42 Wholesale Trade 20,620 20,318 20,306 (302) (1%) (12) (0%) 0.79 $ 77,240 44 Retail Trade 85,559 84,646 82,047 (913) (1%) (2,599) (3%) 1.20 $ 34,793 48 Transportation and Warehousing 18,435 19,068 18,744 633 3% (324) (2%) 0.72 $ 53,963 51 Information 8,307 8,179 7,756 (128) (2%) (423) (5%) 0.64 $ 64,847 52 Finance and Insurance 24,410 26,127 26,209 1,717 7% 82 0% 0.92 $ 90,901 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 8,593 9,182 9,405 589 7% 223 2% 0.76 $ 47,252 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 30,429 33,865 36,215 3,436 11% 2,350 7% 0.73 $ 78,161 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 9,082 11,448 12,707 2,366 26% 1,259 11% 1.12 $ 101,210 Administrative and Support and Waste 56 34,959 35,328 36,286 369 1% 958 3% 0.80 $ 42,455 Management and Remediation Services 61 Educational Services 20,197 20,726 22,209 529 3% 1,483 7% 1.14 $ 42,325 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 106,823 110,719 113,454 3,896 4% 2,735 2% 1.23 $ 59,211 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 11,325 12,284 12,640 959 8% 356 3% 0.99 $ 28,001 72 Accommodation and Food Services 56,018 60,274 62,100 4,256 8% 1,826 3% 0.99 $ 25,618 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 31,147 31,396 31,720 249 1% 324 1% 0.94 $ 32,466 90 Government 106,089 106,999 105,130 910 1% (1,869) (2%) 1.01 $ 65,863 Total 681,917 706,119 712,256 24,202 4% 6,138 1% $ 54,766 Source: EMSI The table below displays industries by 2019 Gross Regional Product (GRP) for the City of Saco compared to York and Cumberland Counties and the State of Maine. Retail is the largest industry by GRP in the City of Saco, constituting 13% of total GRP compared to 7% in York and Cumberland Counties and 9% in Maine. Government is the second largest industry by GRP in the City of Saco and the largest for the two-county region and state. Manufacturing and Health Care and Social Assistance are also strong contributors to Saco’s GRP. Gross Regional Product, 2019 York and NAICS Description Saco (04072) Cumberland Maine Counties 44 Retail Trade $ 103,226,405 13% 7% 9% 90 Government $ 96,731,669 12% 13% 14% 31 Manufacturing $ 79,499,954 10% 11% 12% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance $ 67,260,960 9% 12% 13% 42 Wholesale Trade $ 64,463,458 8% 7% 6% 52 Finance and Insurance $ 60,566,156 8% 11% 8% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services $ 60,288,223 8% 8% 6% 72 Accommodation and Food Services $ 42,286,844 5% 5% 4% 23 Construction $ 40,114,435 5% 5% 6% Administrative and Support and Waste Management 56 $ 34,508,561 4% 3% 3% and Remediation Services 61 Educational Services $ 25,471,526 3% 2% 2% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) $ 23,024,101 3% 2% 2% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $ 20,809,112 3% 3% 3% 48 Transportation and Warehousing $ 16,671,842 2% 2% 2% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation $ 15,854,649 2% 1% 1% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises $ 14,417,022 2% 3% 2% 51 Information $ 13,411,058 2% 3% 2% 22 Utilities $ 5,458,862 1% 1% 1% 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting $ - 0% 1% 2% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction $ - 0% 0% 0% Total $ 784,064,834 100% 100% 100% Source: EMSI
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Industry trends at the 4-digit NAICS code provide greater detail into which sub-sectors are driving growth. Restaurants and Other Eating Places is the top 4-digit industry with 721 jobs in 2019. The retail industry is primarily driven by Automobile Dealers and Grocery stores with 527 and 328 jobs respectively. Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services was the fastest-growing sector, adding 94 jobs between 2014 and 2019 for a growth rate of 51%.
Saco (04072) Top 25 4-Digit Industries by 2019 Jobs, 2014 - 2024 2014 - 2014 - 2019 - 2019 - A vg. Location NAICS Description 2014 Jobs 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs 2019 2019 % 2024 2024 % Earnings Quotient Change Change Change Change Per Job 7225 Restaurants and Other Eating Places 685 721 749 36 5% 28 4% 1.17 $ 25,031 4411 Automobile Dealers 459 527 561 68 15% 34 6% 6.97 $ 70,602 6111 Elementary and Secondary Schools 387 402 432 15 4% 30 7% 6.03 $ 52,243 9011 Federal Government, Civilian 272 339 371 67 25% 32 9% 2.07 $ 114,440 4451 Grocery Stores 316 328 325 12 4% (3) (1%) 2.13 $ 29,460 9036 Education and Hospitals (Local Government) 327 327 321 0 0% (6) (2%) 0.67 $ 62,773 5617 Services to Buildings and Dwellings 253 313 354 60 24% 41 13% 1.90 $ 32,329 Residential Intellectual and Developmental 6232 Disability, Mental Health, and Substance 224 311 341 87 39% 30 10% 8.44 $ 42,107 Abuse Facilities Architectural, Engineering, and Related 5413 183 277 318 94 51% 41 15% 3.06 $ 83,570 Services 3329 Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 242 257 246 15 6% (11) (4%) 16.01 $ 82,799 5221 Depository Credit Intermediation 233 256 258 23 10% 2 1% 2.58 $ 66,257 5613 Employment Services 267 212 195 (55) (21%) (17) (8%) 1.03 $ 37,649 7131 Amusement Parks and Arcades 203 211 219 8 4% 8 4% 16.38 $ 23,761 Local Government, Excluding Education and 9039 187 196 203 9 5% 7 4% 0.60 $ 64,127 Hospitals 6216 Home Health Care Services 243 177 154 (66) (27%) (23) (13%) 1.99 $ 44,866 Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing 6231 196 177 164 (19) (10%) (13) (7%) 1.94 $ 39,491 Facilities) Continuing Care Retirement Communities and 6233 152 170 184 18 12% 14 8% 3.14 $ 37,304 Assisted Living Facilities for the Elderly 2361 Residential Building Construction 146 160 162 14 10% 2 1% 2.23 $ 46,909 6244 Child Day Care Services 139 160 160 21 15% 0 0% 2.24 $ 27,167 7139 Other Amusement and Recreation Industries 132 155 159 23 17% 4 3% 1.85 $ 21,697 7211 Traveler Accommodation 135 142 138 7 5% (4) (3%) 1.27 $ 36,029 6241 Individual and Family Services 112 140 140 28 25% 0 0% 0.92 $ 30,929 5511 Management of Companies and Enterprises 116 126 137 10 9% 11 9% 0.94 $ 95,680 Grocery and Related Product Merchant 4244 308 113 75 (195) (63%) (38) (34%) 2.47 $ 52,306 Wholesalers 3149 Other Textile Product Mills 101 113 120 12 12% 7 6% 28.43 $ 60,978 Source: EMSI Industries with the highest concentration in Saco represent unique assets and include industries within Manufacturing, Amusement Parks, Wholesale, Healthcare, Utilities, and Education.
Saco (04072) Top 4-Digit Industries by Location Quotient, 2014 - 2024 2014 - 2014 - 2019 - 2019 - Location NAICS Description 2014 Jobs 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs 2019 2019 % 2024 2024 % Quotient Change Change Change Change 3117 Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging 64 75 82 11 16.8% 7 8.8% 37.76 3149 Other Textile Product Mills 101 113 120 12 11.8% 6 5.4% 28.43 3322 Cutlery and Handtool Manufacturing 29 41 48 12 40.9% 7 17.1% 18.68 7131 Amusement Parks and Arcades 203 211 219 8 3.9% 9 4.1% 16.38 3329 Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 242 257 246 15 6.1% (11) (4.4%) 16.01 2213 Water, Sewage and Other Systems 26 35 34 9 34.9% (1) (2.0%) 11.01 Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, 6232 224 311 341 88 39.2% 30 9.5% 8.44 Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities Agents and Managers for Artists, Athletes, 7114 35 21 17 (13) (38.8%) (4) (18.7%) 7.24 Entertainers, and Other Public Figures 4411 Automobile Dealers 459 527 561 68 14.9% 34 6.4% 6.97 6111 Elementary and Secondary Schools 387 402 432 15 4.0% 30 7.4% 6.03 Source: EMSI
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
According to 2019 Esri data, there are 191 business establishments with $512.9 million in sales within the City of Saco. There is a significant presence of Other Services (except Public Administration)3 and Retail Trade businesses with 28 and 26 establishments, respectively.
3 Examples of Saco businesses that fall under Other Services (except Public Administration) include retirement homes, cemetery associations, trail alliances, churches, kennels, hair salons, and auto shops.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Saco’s principal employers are listed in the following table. This information comes from Maine Department of Labor data and outreach conducted by City of Saco staff. As shown, major employers in the City include school and childcare services, along with the City of Saco, Prime Dealerships (multiple locations), General Dynamics, and Hannaford Brothers.
City of Saco Principal Employers Businesses by Number of Employees, 2020 Employer Employees Rank City of Saco 376 1 Saco School Department 353 2 Prime Dealerships 306 3 Sweetser Children's Services 301 4 Thornton Academy 211 5 General Dynamics 205 6 Hannaford Brothers 203 7 Saco & Biddeford Savings 131 8 Shaw's Supermarkets 130 9 Precision Manufacturing 95 10 Sources: Maine Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Labor & data compiled by City of Saco Planning & Development, contacting businesses.
Esri offers employment data by site location. According to this source, the largest business locations by employment are grocery stores Shaw’s and Hannaford with 150 and 125 employees, respectively. The third and fourth largest businesses are Boise Cascade Co, a building materials wholesaler with 100 employees, and Prime Scion of Saco, a car dealership with 100 employees. General Dynamics operates under NAICS classification 238990 - All Other Specialty Trade Contractors – which is not included in this dataset.
City of Saco Top 10 Businesses by Number of Employees, 2019 Number of NAICS Description Business Name Address Employees 44511003 Supermarkets Shaw's Supermarket Scammon St 150 44511003 Supermarket Hannaford Supermarket Main St 125 42331002 Lumber Wholesaler Boise Cascade Co Industrial Park Rd 100 81112102 Wholesale Automobile Dealer Prime Scion of Saco Portland Rd 100 52211002 Commercial Banking Saco & Biddeford Savings Instn Main St 90 81111104 Wholesale Automobile Dealer Patriot Subaru Portland Rd 83 Continuing Care Retirement 62331103 Evergreen Manor North St 80 Community Elementary and Secondary 61111007 Saco Middle School Buxton Rd 80 Schools 31141102 Food Manufacturing Sure Winner Foods Lehner Rd 80 Occupational Safety and Health 61169929 Jacman Group Pepperell Sq 75 School Source: Esri
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Most Saco businesses are small employers with less than 20 employees. Nearly 34% of businesses fall within the 1 to 4 employee category. According to the Kauffman Indicators of Entrepreneurship report, nearly 17.2% of businesses in Maine are new employers, ranking as the highest state with new employer business actualization.4 Saco Businesses by Number of Employees, 2019
Source: DatabaseUSA, EMSI
OCCUPATIONS The top twenty-five occupations in Saco complement a mix of industries spanning Health Care and Social Services, Retail and Food Related industries, Education, and Construction. The top occupation in Saco is Personal Care Aides with 325 jobs as of 2019. This occupation has grown nearly 28% since 2014 and is projected to continue adding jobs into 2024. The highest paying top occupation is General and Operations Managers with average earnings of $48.60 per hour. Overall, most of the top occupations have experienced job gains since 2014, and those that did lose jobs declined only marginally.
Saco (04072) Top 25 Occupations by 2019 Job Figures, 2014 - 2024 2014 2019 2024 2014 - 2019 2014 - 2019 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 Avg. Hourly SOC Description Jobs Jobs Jobs Change % Change Change % Change Earnings 39-9021 Personal Care Aides 255 325 332 70 27.6% 7 2.0% $ 12.21 37-2011 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping 220 252 276 32 14.7% 24 9.4% $ 16.49 41-2031 Retail Salespersons 181 199 211 18 9.7% 12 6.2% $ 14.42 35-3031 Waiters and Waitresses 175 185 191 10 5.7% 6 3.2% $ 14.67 35-3021 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, 147 169 181 22 14.8% 12 7.2% $ 11.06 41-2011 Cashiers 165 169 170 4 2.3% 1 0.4% $ 11.77 11-1021 General and Operations Managers 154 167 171 13 8.3% 4 2.6% $ 48.60 49-3023 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 147 165 173 18 11.9% 8 4.7% $ 19.41 31-1014 Nursing Assistants 175 155 149 (19) (11.0%) (6) (4.1%) $ 13.77 43-9061 Office Clerks, General 152 149 146 (3) (2.3%) (3) (2.0%) $ 16.91 25-9041 Teacher Assistants 116 133 138 18 15.2% 5 3.9% $ 16.82 43-4051 Customer Service Representatives 137 132 122 (4) (3.2%) (10) (7.7%) $ 17.17 35-2021 Food Preparation Workers 139 132 136 (7) (5.2%) 4 3.2% $ 13.08 43-6014 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except 133 130 124 (4) (2.8%) (5) (4.0%) $ 18.31 53-3032 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 125 123 126 (1) (1.1%) 3 2.4% $ 23.08 37-2012 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 111 115 117 4 3.4% 2 1.9% $ 14.58 43-5081 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 109 109 111 1 0.7% 2 1.5% $ 14.47 39-9011 Childcare Workers 113 107 101 (6) (5.6%) (5) (5.1%) $ 12.55 43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 110 105 103 (6) (5.0%) (2) (1.9%) $ 19.67 25-2031 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and 96 104 108 7 7.6% 4 4.1% $ 27.51 47-2031 Carpenters 99 102 100 3 3.3% (2) (2.3%) $ 21.46 35-3022 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and 103 101 102 (3) (2.4%) 1 1.0% $ 11.37 25-2021 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 99 100 104 2 1.8% 4 3.7% $ 26.68 37-3011 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 86 94 102 8 8.8% 8 8.5% $ 16.34 47-2061 Construction Laborers 84 91 92 7 8.3% 1 1.4% $ 17.89 Source: EMSI
4 Kauffman indicators of Entrepreneurship, 2018 New Employer Business Report: National and State Trends, March 2020.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
2020 Q1 DATA: JOBS BY INDUSTRY The following table contains jobs data for the first quarter of 2020, right before the COVID-19 crisis accelerated and began disrupting the economy.
Saco (04072) Jobs by Industry,2019 - 2020 2019 - 2020 2019 - 2020 NAICS Description 2019 Jobs 2020 Jobs Change % Change 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0 0 0 0% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0 0 0% 22 Utilities 35 37 3 8% 23 Construction 517 534 17 3% 31 Manufacturing 696 685 (11) (2%) 42 Wholesale Trade 363 377 14 4% 44 Retail Trade 1,154 1,176 22 2% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 235 273 38 16% 51 Information 87 92 6 7% 52 Finance and Insurance 343 352 9 3% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 115 118 3 2% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 556 577 21 4% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 126 148 22 17% Administrative and Support and Waste Management 56 616 599 (17) (3%) and Remediation Services 61 Educational Services 504 505 1 0% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,322 1,269 (53) (4%) 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 404 389 (15) (4%) 72 Accommodation and Food Services 928 952 24 3% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 397 401 4 1% 90 Government 936 1,023 87 9% Total 9,333 9,507 174 2% Source: EMSI
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
WORKFORCE AND SKILLS ASSESSMENT The workforce and skills assessment examines workforce trends as they relate to business City of Saco Inflow/Outflow, 2017 development in Saco through commuter trends, occupation trends, demand for credentials, and academic completions in the two-county region.
COMMUTER TRENDS As of 2017, over 5,200 people commute into the City of Saco for work. Approximately 1,400 Saco residents both live and work within the city and nearly 8,600 residents commute out of Saco for work.
Where Saco’s Workforce Lives | The majority of Saco’s workforce lives within York and Cumberland Counties with 21% residing in the City of Saco, 12% in the City of Biddeford, and 6% in the City of Portland. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Approximately 48% of Saco’s workers travel less than 10 miles from their home to work at Saco businesses and 10.2% travel over 50 miles from areas including Boston, MA, and Bangor, ME.
Where Saco’s Residents Work | Approximately 14.0% of City of Saco’s residents work within the city, with an additional 20.4% working in the City of Portland, and 10.8% working within the City of Biddeford. The majority of Saco residents work within the two-county region. In terms of distance traveled, 41% of Saco residents travel less than 10 miles to work while 8% work over 50 miles from the city in places including Lewiston, ME, and Augusta, ME.
Where City of Saco Workers Live, 2017 Where City of Saco Residents Work, 2017 Number Percent Number Percent Saco city (York, ME) 1,402 21.1% Portland city (Cumberland, ME) 2,042 20.4% Biddeford city (York, ME) 811 12.2% Saco city (York, ME) 1,402 14.0% Portland city (Cumberland, ME) 419 6.3% Biddeford city (York, ME) 1,075 10.8% Old Orchard Beach town (York, ME) 264 4.0% South Portland city (Cumberland, ME) 948 9.5% Sanford city (York, ME) 221 3.3% Scarborough town (Cumberland, ME) 799 8.0% Scarborough town (Cumberland, ME) 211 3.2% Westbrook city (Cumberland, ME) 452 4.5% South Portland city (Cumberland, ME) 167 2.5% Kennebunk town (York, ME) 223 2.2% Waterboro town (York, ME) 159 2.4% Old Orchard Beach town (York, ME) 190 1.9% Kennebunk town (York, ME) 148 2.2% Sanford city (York, ME) 167 1.7% Lyman town (York, ME) 141 2.1% Buxton town (York, ME) 127 1.3% All Other Locations 2,697 40.6% All Other Locations 2,564 25.7% Total 6,640 100.0% Total 9,989 100.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
The figure below displays the major employment centers within Saco and Biddeford, with the intensity of the blue indicating job density. Employment Centers Near Saco
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
The table below displays Saco’s net commuters by occupation as a measure of jobs within Saco compared to residents within each occupation. The top occupation where workers commute into Saco to work is Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics with 82 net commuters. Most of these occupations are expected to grow and 5 therefore keep residents within Saco, except for Home Health Aides. The automation index (AI) f is displayed for these occupations to indicate which occupations are at high risk for automation. Sewing Machine Operators and Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment have a high AI of nearly 124 indicating they are at high risk for automation.
Top 10 Occupations Where Saco Imports Workers, 2024 Net 2019 - Residents in A vg. Automation Commuters: Annual SOC Description 2019 Jobs 2024 the Hourly Index Jobs Less Openings Change Occupation Earnings Residents 49-3023 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 165 8 105.9 83 82 18 $19.41
39-9021 Personal Care Aides 325 7 94.2 291 34 47 $12.21 39-3091 Amusement and Recreation Attendants 51 3 108.1 26 25 13 $11.98 51-3022 Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers 41 3 118.3 18 23 6 $13.77 53-7061 Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment 49 4 123.7 28 21 8 $14.57 51-6031 Sewing Machine Operators 30 2 123.8 14 16 4 $15.07 39-9031 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 46 3 84.4 32 14 9 $21.88 41-2022 Parts Salespersons 35 1 98.7 21 14 5 $16.30 31-1011 Home Health Aides 50 (1) 92.0 38 12 6 $13.17 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special 25-2031 104 4 84.9 93 11 9 $27.51 and Career/Technical Education Source: EMSI
The table below displays the top ten occupations where Saco exports workers, meaning Saco residents are leaving the city to work in other communities. These occupations are a mix of service workers and professionals. The professionals that commute out of Saco for work include Registered Nurses, General and Operations Managers, and Insurance Sales Agents which have higher earnings of $39 to $48 per hour. Overall, Saco sees a greater influx of service occupations than it exports while a greater portion of professional occupations commutes out of Saco. This indicates an opportunity to capture these professionals through small business growth in Saco.
Top 10 Occupations Where Saco Exports Workers, 2024 Net 2019 - Residents in A vg. Automation Commuters: Annual SOC Description 2019 Jobs 2024 the Hourly Index Jobs Less Openings Change Occupation Earnings Residents 41-2031 Retail Salespersons 199 30 93.4 339 (140) 32 $14.42 29-1141 Registered Nurses 89 (4) 85.3 228 (139) 5 $32.51 43-4051 Customer Service Representatives 132 (15) 96.4 216 (84) 18 $17.17 43-9061 Office Clerks, General 149 (6) 102.0 231 (82) 18 $16.91 41-3021 Insurance Sales Agents 19 4 96.0 101 (82) 2 $28.98 35-3031 Waiters and Waitresses 185 16 129.8 261 (76) 37 $14.67 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, 43-6014 130 (9) 91.4 202 (72) 15 $18.31 Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 11-1021 General and Operations Managers 167 17 82.2 235 (68) 16 $48.60 31-9092 Medical Assistants 27 5 97.3 94 (67) 4 $15.28 41-2011 Cashiers 169 5 105.5 223 (54) 33 $11.77 Source: EMSI
5 The automation index captures an occupation’s risk of being affected by automation relative to other occupations with 100 being an average worker, values over 100 being at risk for automation, and values under 100 having a low automation risk. Automation index measures an occupation’s time spent of high risk work and low risk work, number of high risk jobs in compatible occupations, and overall industry automation risk.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
CREDENTIALS AND SKILLED DEMANDED FOR MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS
Health Care Credentials: The majority of Health Care positions in Saco require a high school diploma or equivalent. Nationally, the health care sector is projected to grow as health care spending continues to rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that providers are challenged with finding practitioners and support personnel to fill positions and that this low supply is likely to continue.
Saco Health Care Skills Summary, 2019 - 2024 Entry Education Median Earnings 2019 - 2024 Sample Jobs 2019 Jobs Level Range, Hourly Change No Formal Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners; Cooks, Institution $10.35 - $14.98 55 0 Credential and Cafeteria, Food Servers Personal Care Aides; Childcare Workers; Home H.S. or Equivalent $11.61- $18.49 625 9 Health Aides Registered Nurses; Substance Abuse, Behavioral Bachelor's Degree $24.17 - $51.84 Disorder, and Mental Health Counselors; Medical and 118 2 Health Services Managers Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers; Postsecondary $26.09 - $114.31 Physical Therapists; Obstetricians and 221 (3) Gynecologists Source: EMSI
Skills: Job postings from October 2018 to October 2019 were analyzed to understand the most in-demand skills for each sector. The top in-demand hard skills in Health Care are mental health, substance abuse, crisis intervention, and nursing. The top common skills are a valid driver’s license, leadership, communications, and teaching. Within Saco, the most in-demand Health Care qualifications include Licensed Clinical Social Workers, Certified Nursing Assistant, and Licensed Clinical Professional Counselor.
Manufacturing Credentials: Saco’s Manufacturing sector primarily requires a high school degree or equivalent with few occupations requiring higher education. However, most of the occupations projected to decline to require a typical entry-level education of a high school degree or equivalent. Training and education could help to transition those workers into higher-earning positions within the same sector. The sector has the highest median hourly earnings for no formal credential at $19.03 per hour.
Saco Manufacturing Skills Summary, 2019 - 2024 Entry Education Median Earnings 2019 - 2024 Sample Jobs 2019 Jobs Level Range, Hourly Change No Formal Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers; $11.26 - $19.03 108 0 Credential Sewing Machine Operators; Packers and Packagers Machinists; Production Workers; Sales H.S. or Equivalent $13.21 - $27.71 260 (15) Representatives; Metal Workers and Plastic Workers General and Operations Managers; Computer Bachelor's Degree $16,05 - $59.13 18 1 Programmer; Accountant Postsecondary $29.83 - $65.99 Laywers; Statisticians; Economists 0 0 Source: EMSI
Skills: The most in-demand skills in the Manufacturing cover a variety of industries including rope manufacturers with Yale Cordage being the top posting company, as well as the snack/food industry (Synder’s-Lance and Oakhurst Dairy), laboratory (Maine Molecular Quality Controls), and construction (Andersen and Boise Cascade Building Materials). The top hard skills include quality control, warehousing, palletizing, cycle counting, and material handling. The top common skills include communications, sales, and management. Companies within this sector are seeking
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
candidates with a Commercial Driver’s License. The most in-demand skills in the Manufacturing sector show that these skills are not necessarily acquired at a four-year university.
Professional and Technical Services Credentials: Most occupations in the Professional and Technical Services sector require a high school diploma/equivalent or bachelor’s degree. Those occupations that require a bachelor’s degree do not require work experience or training, meaning education alone is enough to fill the role.
Saco Professional and Technical Services Skills Summary, 2019 - 2024 Entry Education Median Earnings 2019 - 2024 Sample Jobs 2019 Jobs Level Range, Hourly Change No Formal Retail Salespersons, Telemarketer; Industrial Truck $11.26 - $15.11 0 0 Credential and Tractor Operators Tellers; Customer Service; Bookkeeping, Accounting, H.S. or Equivalent $13.64 - $27.50 240 2 and Auditing Clerks Civil Engineers; Accountants and Auditors; Bachelor's Degree $25.21 - $59.13 266 21 Management Analysts Postsecondary $29.83 - $38.95 Lawyers; Urban and Regional Planners; Economists 17 1 Source: EMSI
Skills: Sales and customer relationships are a large component of the Professional and Technical Service sector with the most in-demand common skills being management, sales, customer service, communications. The most in- demand hard skills include selling techniques, demonstration skills, Corrective and Preventive Action (CAPAC), and Medicare.
Retail, Arts, and Accommodation and Food Services Credentials: Most Retail, Arts, and Accommodation and Food Services occupations have no formal education requirement. Typical training for occupations in this sector is short term on the job training. While butchers and meat cutters have no education requirement, they often require long on the job training to advance their skills. Nationally, automation is increasing efficiencies and reducing labor requirements throughout this sector through automated hotel concierge, cashiers, etc. This will place increased emphasis on more skilled positions such as Dietitian and Nutritionists that require higher education and internship training but are relatively rare in the Saco community with less than 10 positions.
Saco Retail, Arts, and Accomodation and Food Services Skills Summary, 2019 - 2024 Entry Education Median Earnings 2019 - 2024 Sample Jobs 2019 Jobs Level Range, Hourly Change No Formal Retail Salespersons; Waiters and Waitresses; $10.93 - $15.73 1,393 55 Credential Butchers and Meat Cutters Stock Clerks and Order Fillers; First-Line Supervisors H.S. or Equivalent $12.80 - $26.78 567 13 of Retail Sales Workers; Customer Service General and Operations Managers; Bookkeeping, Bachelor's Degree $10.01 - $26.65 84 2 Accounting, and Auditing Clerks; Coaches and Postsecondary $20.80 - $62.81 Pharmacists; Curators <10 (1) Source: EMSI
Skills: The Retail, Arts, and Accommodation and Food Service sector’s demanded skills are centered in the food industry. Nationally, restaurant and food establishments experience high turnover rates, which could be attributed to the demand for positions in Saco. The top in-demand hard skills in this sector include restaurant operation, franchising, food safety, and selling techniques. Top common skills include customer services, sales, management, and communications.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
ACADEMIC COMPLETIONS AT REGIONAL INSTITUTIONS The table below displays all academic institutions in York and Cumberland County and their attributed degree and certificate completions in 2018. This represents the offerings in the region and the capacity and skillsets for supporting businesses. Of the fifteen institutions, none are in the City of Saco and, therefore, the city draws from regional institutions to educate its workforce. Primary institutions are the University of New England and the University of Southern Maine. Southern Maine Community College is the primary resource for Associate’s degrees in the region with 785 of the 1,017 degrees; the region is also served by York County Community College in Wells for Associate’s degrees. Top programs for completions include social work, register nursing, and business administration and management.
Academic Completions at York and Cumberland County Institutions, 2018 Certificate Associate's Bachelor's Master's Doctor's All Institution Completions Degrees Degrees Degree Degree Completions University of New England 85 Not Offered 497 770 443 1,795 University of Southern Maine 134 0 1,130 388 85 1,737 Southern Maine Community College 37 785 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 822 Bowdoin College Not Offered Not Offered 670 Not Offered Not Offered 670 Saint Joseph's College of Maine 76 5 303 257 Not Offered 641 Northeast Technical Institute 276 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 276 York County Community College 32 199 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 231 Kaplan University-Maine Campus 55 20 80 29 0 184 Spa Tech Institute-Westbrook 146 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 146 Maine College of Art 30 Not Offered 91 20 Not Offered 141 Empire Beauty School-Maine 78 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 78 The Landing School 44 8 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 52 Seacoast Career Schools-Sanford Campus 38 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 38 Birthwise Midwifery School 8 Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 8 Institute for Doctoral Studies in the Visual Arts Not Offered Not Offered Not Offered 2 2 4 Total 1,039 1,017 2,771 1,466 530 6,823 Source: EMSI
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC PROFILE POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS
In 2019, the City of Saco had a population of nearly 20,000 among 8,282 households. Between 2010 and 2019, Saco’s population grew at an annual rate of 0.89%, which was nearly double the state’s rate but lower than that of York and Cumberland counties combined. During the same period, Saco’s household growth rate was higher than the state and slightly higher than the combined counties indicating growth in small households in Saco.
Population, 2010 - 2024 Annual Annual 2010 2019 2024 Growth Rate Growth Rate 2010 - 2019 2019 - 2024 City of Saco 18,482 19,955 20,750 0.89% 0.78% York and Cumberland Counties 478,805 519,257 541,990 0.94% 0.86% Maine 1,328,361 1,381,874 1,409,603 0.45% 0.40% Source: Esri Households, 2010 - 2024 Annual Annual 2010 2019 2024 Growth Rate Growth Rate 2010 - 2019 2019 - 2024 City of Saco 7,623 8,282 8,633 0.96% 0.85% York and Cumberland Counties 198,348 214,773 224,170 0.92% 0.88% Maine 557,219 579,262 590,849 0.44% 0.40% Source: Esri AGE The City of Saco and York and Cumberland Counties have a similar age distribution. As of 2019, the median age in both geographies was approximately 44 years old. The population of both are highly concentrated in the 45-65 age range.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Median Age, 2010 - 2024 2010 2019 2024 City of Saco 41.8 43.9 44.1 York and Cumberland Counties 41.8 44.0 44.6 Maine 42.7 45.0 45.8 Source: Esri
INCOME
As of 2019, median household incomes were approximately $63,000 in the City of Saco, $69,000 in York and Cumberland Counties, and $56,000 in Maine. The city has a lower proportion of households in the upper-income categories higher than $75,000 compared to the surrounding two-county region. Earnings in the City of Saco, York and Cumberland Counties, and Maine are projected to rise.
Households by Income, 2019 York and City of Saco Cumberland Maine Counties < $15,000 564 6.8% 8.0% 11.3% $15,000-$24,999 587 7.1% 7.5% 9.9% $25,000-$34,999 727 8.8% 8.1% 9.9% $35,000-$49,999 1,105 13.3% 11.3% 13.1% $50,000-$74,999 1,853 22.4% 18.6% 19.2% $75,000-$99,999 1,110 13.4% 15.1% 13.4% $100,000-$149,999 1,471 17.8% 18.4% 14.4% $150,000-$199,999 348 4.2% 6.3% 4.7% $200,000 + 517 6.2% 6.6% 4.2% Source: Esri
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
RACE AND ETHNICITY
Esri’s diversity index measures the likelihood that two people, chosen at random from the same area, belong to different races or ethnic groups. The diversity index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, with 100 being the most diverse. Saco, much like the two-county region, is primarily white with low diversity.
Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2019 York and City of Saco Cumberland Maine Counties White 94.2% 92.9% 94.1% Black/African American 1.2% 2.1% 1.5% Asian 2.1% 1.9% 1.3% American Indian/Alaska Native 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Other Race 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% Two of More Races 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% Diversity Index 14.6 17.1 14.6 Source: Esri
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT This indicator looks at the adult education level as defined by the highest level of education completed by the 25- 64-year-old population. Saco has slightly lower education attainment levels than the two-county region, but higher than the state.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
UNEMPLOYMENT As of 2019, the unemployment rate for Saco was 3.0%, the lowest of the benchmark geographies.
The figure below displays the annual unemployment rate for York County, Cumberland County, Maine, and the United States for 2000 to September 2020 (2020 YTD). For all geographies, the 2007-2009 recession led to a spike in unemployment. Between 2009 and 2018, the unemployment rate slowly declined until 2019.
Now in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing unemployment rates to rise quickly. As of September, unemployment rates were as follows: Cumberland County 5.4%, York County 5.5%, State of Maine 6.1%, and United States 7.9%. In October, the national unemployment rate fell by a percentage point – regional data is not yet available.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
MIGRATION FLOWS According to the 2013-2017 American Community Survey, York County had a net migration of 2,294 residents during that 5-year time. Positive net migration and overall population gain demonstrate the county is both attracting new residents and growing its current population.
Counties contributing the most inbound migration to York County, ME; Middlesex County, MA; Essex County, MA; and Kennebec County, ME. The top outbound counties, or places that York County residents moved to include Penobscot County, ME; Lake County, IL; Oxford County, ME; and Bexar County, TX.
The figure below displays the net migration for York County with counties represented in dark and light orange indicate counties with populations that moved into York County and counties in light and dark blue notate areas where York County residents migrated to.
Total New Migration Flows for York County, ME
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2013 – 2017
The Downeaster Amtrak serves the State of Maine and provides service to New Hampshire and Boston, MA. Saco’s Amtrak station provided service to 48,158 passengers, including arrivals and departures, in 2018.6 On average, passenger trips are 86 miles in length with the top destination by ridership and revenue being the Boston-North Station. It is important to note that Boston-North is the most southern destination on the Downeaster, and passengers would need to travel 3.7 miles to Boston-South station to continue trips beyond Boston. Other top destinations by ridership include Portland, ME; Durham-UNH, NH; Haverhill, MA; and Woburn, MA.
6 National Association of Railroad Passengers
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
RETAIL SNAPSHOT SUPPLY
Maine Department of Revenue Services provides data on monthly taxable sales to the public. The City of Saco falls within the Biddeford Economic Summary Area (ESA)7 where overall sales have increased across all retail sectors from 2007 to 2019, from $668 million to $972 million. During that period, taxable sales within Saco increased from $244 million to $279 and accounted for roughly 37-41% of the total sales within the Biddeford ESA.
Between 2007 and 2019, the auto/transportation sector increased by nearly $117 million or a 63% growth. Nearly all that growth occurred within the City of Saco. Conversely, sales within the other retail categories are more dispersed between municipalities within the Biddeford ESA. As of 2019, Auto/Transportation sales in Saco accounted for 86% of the sales in the Biddeford ESA while Building Supply sales accounted for roughly 3%.
7 The Biddeford Economic Summary Area includes Bar Mills, Biddeford, Buxton, Dayton, Hollis, Limington, Ocean Park, Old Orchard Beach, and Saco.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
The breakdown of average monthly sales from 2017 to 2019 indicates that the majority of retail categories experience increased sales in the summer from June through August. Most notably, average monthly sales from lodging spikes from $1 million to nearly $20 million in July.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
The City of Saco holds 11% of the retail/office inventory in York County with approximately 395,000 SF.8 Overall, Saco has seen continued low vacancy with retail properties as Main Street continues to prosper. Saco has proved successful in attracting new retail offerings. In 2017, Krispy Kreme opened its first location in Maine on Main Street in Saco.
The following table summarizes the retail sales activity in the City of Saco in 2017, including spending on retail goods and services by residents (in the city and out), and sales at Saco Businesses by all customers. As shown by the large negative retail gap, Saco’s automotive dealers, food and beverage stores, and sporting goods/hobby/musical industry stores attract a significant amount of spending by non-resident consumers.
8 Southern Maine Finance Agency, York County Market Overview. January 2020.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
City of Saco Retail Sales Supply & Demand, 2017 Sales Demand Sales at Saco Number of NAICS Description by Saco Retail Gap Businesses Businesses Residents 441 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $54,751,101 $155,045,822 ($100,294,721) 24 4411 Automobile Dealers $42,047,783 $147,607,194 ($105,559,411) 18 4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $8,497,865 $3,916,571 $4,581,294 3 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $4,205,453 $3,522,057 $683,396 3 442 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $7,681,531 $350,140 $7,331,391 1 4421 Furniture Stores $4,622,865 $0 $4,622,865 0 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $3,058,666 $350,140 $2,708,526 1 443 Electronics & Appliance Stores $7,352,635 $4,455,964 $2,896,671 4 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $16,973,998 $14,080,228 $2,893,770 10 4441 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $15,775,494 $12,012,074 $3,763,420 5 4442 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $1,198,504 $2,068,154 ($869,650) 5 445 Food & Beverage Stores $44,774,004 $66,925,995 ($22,151,991) 9 4451 Grocery Stores $41,032,097 $65,386,311 ($24,354,214) 7 4452 Specialty Food Stores $3,020,194 $1,539,684 $1,480,510 2 4453 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $721,713 $0 $721,713 0 446,4461 Health & Personal Care Stores $15,065,311 $18,835,085 ($3,769,774) 6 447,4471 Gasoline Stations $26,909,638 $28,646,238 ($1,736,600) 9 448 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $12,529,516 $1,973,171 $10,556,345 6 4481 Clothing Stores $7,531,399 $1,530,991 $6,000,408 5 4482 Shoe Stores $2,371,329 $0 $2,371,329 0 4483 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $2,626,788 $442,180 $2,184,608 1 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $13,871,264 $45,566,059 ($31,694,795) 5 4511 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $12,922,545 $44,394,748 ($31,472,203) 4 4512 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $948,719 $1,171,311 ($222,592) 1 452 General Merchandise Stores $38,407,957 $4,945,042 $33,462,915 2 4521 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $31,424,055 $4,662,613 $26,761,442 1 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $6,983,902 $282,429 $6,701,473 1 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $10,477,681 $9,183,496 $1,294,185 18 4531 Florists $519,100 $0 $519,100 0 4532 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $2,733,904 $1,766,076 $967,828 3 4533 Used Merchandise Stores $1,915,745 $666,324 $1,249,421 5 4539 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $5,308,932 $6,751,096 ($1,442,164) 10 454 Nonstore Retailers $1,888,829 $1,284,876 $603,953 1 4541 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses $901,691 $0 $901,691 0 4542 Vending Machine Operators $166,936 $1,284,876 ($1,117,940) 1 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $820,202 $0 $820,202 0 722 Food Services & Drinking Places $26,676,802 $29,190,783 ($2,513,981) 42 7223 Special Food Services $662,750 $1,759,431 ($1,096,681) 3 7224 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $434,744 $0 $434,744 0 7225 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $25,579,308 $27,431,352 ($1,852,044) 39 Source: Esri
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
DEMAND
A retail trade area is a geographic extent within which City of Saco Retail Trade Areas a community generates most of its customers. Generally, 65-75% of customers of local businesses reside in the trade area. The map delineates two retail trade areas for the City of Saco’s Main Street, a City of Neighborhood Trade Area, and a Regional Trade Area. Saco The Neighborhood Trade Area is the trade area for retail establishments that serve the day-to-day needs of customers that offer convenience type products (supermarkets, gas stations, coffee shops, etc.). The Neighborhood Neighborhood Trade Area is generally a 20- Trade Area minute walk radius from Main Street. Overall, the Neighborhood Trade Area’s population has a lower median household income at Regional Trade Area $44,694 than the City of Saco and a younger demographic with a median age of 37.2. The Regional Trade Area applies to businesses that sell ‘destination’ products and services. The Regional Trade Area is the area within 20 to 30-minute drive of Saco’s Main Street. The population of the Regional Trade area is slightly less affluent than the City of Saco (median household income of $61,695) Source: Esri and an older demographic (median age 46.2). The figures on the following pages show the retail supply and demand by residents within the Neighborhood Trade Area and Regional Trade Area. Retail categories with sales leakage are in green, and those with sales surplus are in red. Within the Neighborhood Trade Area and Regional Trade Area, there is a mix of retail sectors showing leakage, thus indicating a possible opportunity to open or expand new businesses. A sales surplus might exist for several reasons. The geography might be a popular shopping destination for tourists and other out-of-town visitors, or a cluster of competing businesses offering a similar product/service may be located within the trade area. Alternatively, a sales surplus could be an indication of market saturation.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Neighborhood Trade Area Retail Gap Demand Supply (Retail Number of NAICS Description (Retail Retail Gap Sales) Businesses Potential) 441 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $24,255,528 $14,877,767 $9,377,761 4 4411 Automobile Dealers $18,741,406 $7,729,151 $11,012,255 1 4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $3,649,079 $5,469,961 ($1,820,882) 1 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $1,865,043 $1,678,656 $186,387 2 442 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $3,365,293 $1,312,722 $2,052,571 2 4421 Furniture Stores $2,094,729 $850,975 $1,243,754 1 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $1,270,563 $461,747 $808,816 1 443 Electronics & Appliance Stores $3,298,788 $5,041,348 ($1,742,560) 5 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $6,500,253 $1,370,590 $5,129,663 2 4441 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $6,056,055 $1,360,309 $4,695,746 2 4442 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $444,199 $0 $444,199 0 445 Food & Beverage Stores $20,790,036 $52,553,416 ($31,763,380) 12 4451 Grocery Stores $19,053,093 $52,474,298 ($33,421,205) 12 4452 Specialty Food Stores $1,414,443 $0 $1,414,443 0 4453 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $322,499 $0 $322,499 0 446,4461 Health & Personal Care Stores $6,612,445 $14,681,351 ($8,068,906) 5 447,4471 Gasoline Stations $12,504,162 $16,615,226 ($4,111,064) 4 448 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $5,609,797 $4,070,852 $1,538,945 9 4481 Clothing Stores $3,398,167 $1,495,968 $1,902,199 5 4482 Shoe Stores $1,077,838 $0 $1,077,838 0 4483 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $1,133,792 $2,574,884 ($1,441,092) 4 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $6,318,170 $5,490,576 $827,594 6 4511 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $5,866,539 $5,430,387 $436,152 6 4512 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $451,631 $0 $451,631 0 452 General Merchandise Stores $17,296,641 $7,447,432 $9,849,209 4 4521 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $14,102,242 $4,944,007 $9,158,235 2 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $3,194,399 $2,503,425 $690,974 2 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $4,672,986 $10,202,466 ($5,529,480) 21 4531 Florists $188,079 $743,443 ($555,364) 1 4532 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $1,205,555 $1,610,612 ($405,057) 3 4533 Used Merchandise Stores $840,379 $1,800,334 ($959,955) 4 4539 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $2,438,973 $6,048,076 ($3,609,103) 13 454 Nonstore Retailers $804,996 $0 $804,996 0 4541 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses $397,535 $0 $397,535 0 4542 Vending Machine Operators $77,720 $0 $77,720 0 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $329,741 $0 $329,741 0 722 Food Services & Drinking Places $12,008,396 $23,649,672 ($11,641,276) 50 7223 Special Food Services $289,209 $0 $289,209 0 7224 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $197,355 $1,286,453 ($1,089,098) 6 7225 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $11,521,833 $22,084,090 ($10,562,257) 44 Source: Esri
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Regional Trade Area Retail Gap Demand Supply (Retail Number of NAICS Description (Retail Retail Gap Sales) Businesses Potential) 441 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $241,274,983 $248,006,800 ($6,731,817) 60 4411 Automobile Dealers $185,282,965 $187,826,295 ($2,543,330) 33 4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $37,743,731 $45,658,078 ($7,914,347) 12 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $18,248,288 $14,522,428 $3,725,860 15 442 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $32,217,839 $22,301,490 $9,916,349 25 4421 Furniture Stores $19,170,680 $14,146,025 $5,024,655 11 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $13,047,159 $8,155,466 $4,891,693 14 443 Electronics & Appliance Stores $30,978,968 $11,182,540 $19,796,428 21 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $76,126,157 $69,046,805 $7,079,352 40 4441 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $70,500,043 $57,261,752 $13,238,291 29 4442 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $5,626,114 $11,785,053 ($6,158,939) 11 445 Food & Beverage Stores $193,024,496 $297,909,472 ($104,884,976) 61 4451 Grocery Stores $176,990,337 $263,957,655 ($86,967,318) 40 4452 Specialty Food Stores $12,987,918 $31,706,860 ($18,718,942) 18 4453 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $3,046,241 $2,244,957 $801,284 2 446,4461 Health & Personal Care Stores $66,903,921 $65,341,869 $1,562,052 29 447,4471 Gasoline Stations $117,537,214 $107,134,119 $10,403,095 25 448 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $51,741,426 $37,067,866 $14,673,560 49 4481 Clothing Stores $31,181,904 $23,003,722 $8,178,182 33 4482 Shoe Stores $9,747,122 $1,668,394 $8,078,728 2 4483 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $10,812,401 $12,395,750 ($1,583,349) 13 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $57,457,641 $57,290,190 $167,451 39 4511 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $53,551,102 $53,979,223 ($428,121) 34 4512 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $3,906,539 $3,310,967 $595,572 5 452 General Merchandise Stores $162,735,902 $126,331,657 $36,404,245 19 4521 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $132,704,754 $116,574,374 $16,130,380 8 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $30,031,149 $9,757,283 $20,273,866 11 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $46,101,510 $61,589,367 ($15,487,857) 143 4531 Florists $2,250,920 $4,782,810 ($2,531,890) 12 4532 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $11,585,422 $13,002,187 ($1,416,765) 32 4533 Used Merchandise Stores $8,072,880 $11,853,580 ($3,780,700) 42 4539 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $24,192,289 $31,950,791 ($7,758,502) 57 454 Nonstore Retailers $8,607,340 $4,199,583 $4,407,757 6 4541 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses $3,795,681 $703,623 $3,092,058 2 4542 Vending Machine Operators $713,454 $1,142,676 ($429,222) 1 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $4,098,205 $2,353,284 $1,744,921 3 722 Food Services & Drinking Places $111,054,866 $171,732,710 ($60,677,844) 245 7223 Special Food Services $2,744,044 $9,282,169 ($6,538,125) 12 7224 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $1,781,107 $2,190,937 ($409,830) 10 7225 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $106,529,715 $160,259,604 ($53,729,889) 223 Source: Esri Sales leakage does not necessarily indicate that a new business or expansion of an existing business will be successful within a region. The figures below compare the retail spending gap in the Neighborhood Trade Area and
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Regional Trade Area to retail categories that have sales leakage to the average sales of similar businesses in Maine. This allows us to identify which of the industries with sales leakage in each of the trade areas may have enough unmet demand to support opening a new store or expanding existing stores. Supportable business figures in each respective trade area are determined assuming: (1) 25% of the sales leakage is recaptured (this is typical among various retail categories), and (2) New businesses have sales comparable to the average sales of all Maine businesses in the same retail category.
While there is not a retail category with enough unmet demand to support an entire store in the Neighborhood Trade Area, there are a variety of categories with unmet demand to support nearly 20,000 SF of retail space.
Neighborhood Trade Area Supportable Retail A B C D E F G H 25% Average Supportable Average Supportable NAICS Retail Category Retail Gap Leakage Sales per Businesses Sales per SF Recapture Business (D / E) SF (D / G) 4441 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $ 4,695,746 $1,173,937 $ 1,945,193 0.60 $ 350 3,354 4481 Clothing Stores $ 1,902,199 $ 475,550 $ 938,019 0.51 $ 300 1,585 4421 Furniture Stores $ 1,243,754 $ 310,939 $ 1,068,145 0.29 $ 300 1,036 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $ 808,816 $ 202,204 $ 826,377 0.24 $ 300 674 4452 Specialty Food Stores $ 1,414,443 $ 353,611 $ 1,472,375 0.24 $ 350 1,010 4442 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $ 444,199 $ 111,050 $ 693,777 0.16 $ 250 444 4521 Department Stores $ 9,158,235 $2,289,559 $15,274,003 0.15 $ 250 9,158 4482 Shoe Stores $ 1,077,838 $ 269,460 $ 1,880,254 0.14 $ 300 898 4512 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $ 451,631 $ 112,908 $ 967,895 0.12 $ 250 452 4511 Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores $ 436,152 $ 109,038 $ 1,205,456 0.09 $ 250 436 4453 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $ 322,499 $ 80,625 $ 1,127,686 0.07 $ 350 230 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $ 690,974 $ 172,744 $ 2,601,369 0.07 $ 500 345 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $ 186,387 $ 46,597 $ 919,382 0.05 $ 300 155 Total 19,780 Source: Esri, Camoin 310 Within the Regional Trade Area, Electronics & Appliance Stores shows the greatest potential followed by Clothing Stores. Other retail categories with enough unmet demand to support an entire business within the Regional Trade Area includes Other General Merchandise Stores, Building Material & Supplies Dealers, Home Furnishing Stores, Furniture Stores, Shoe Stores; and Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores.
Regional Trade Area Supportable Retail A B C D E F G H 25% Average Supportable Average Supportable NAICS Retail Category Retail Gap Leakage Sales per Businesses Sales per SF Recapture Business (D / E) SF (D / G) 4431 Electronics & Appliance Stores $ 19,796,428 $4,949,107 $ 1,417,841 3.49 $ 500 9,898 4481 Clothing Stores $ 8,178,182 $2,044,546 $ 938,019 2.18 $ 300 6,815 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $ 20,273,866 $5,068,467 $ 2,601,369 1.95 $ 500 10,137 4441 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $ 13,238,291 $3,309,573 $ 1,945,193 1.70 $ 350 9,456 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $ 4,891,693 $1,222,923 $ 826,377 1.48 $ 300 4,076 4421 Furniture Stores $ 5,024,655 $1,256,164 $ 1,068,145 1.18 $ 300 4,187 4482 Shoe Stores $ 8,078,728 $2,019,682 $ 1,880,254 1.07 $ 300 6,732 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $ 3,725,860 $ 931,465 $ 919,382 1.01 $ 300 3,105 4521 Department Stores $ 16,130,380 $4,032,595 $15,274,003 0.26 $ 250 16,130 4461 Health & Personal Care Stores $ 1,562,052 $ 390,513 $ 2,137,540 0.18 $ 400 976 4453 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $ 801,284 $ 200,321 $ 1,127,686 0.18 $ 350 572 4512 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $ 595,572 $ 148,893 $ 967,895 0.15 $ 250 596 Total 72,682 Source: Esri, Camoin 310
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
MARKET SEGMENTS Market segmentation is a tool used by retail site selectors to determine the characteristics of a trade area. Market segmentation classifies consumers according to demographic, socioeconomic, housing, and lifestyle characteristics. Retailers and site selectors use market segmentation to compare consumer trends across trade areas when considering many site locations. Businesses utilize market segmentation to understand their customers’ lifestyle choices, purchasing preferences, and how they spend their free time. Market segmentation data for the Neighborhood Trade Area was obtained from Esri’s Tapestry Segmentation model. Additional information about this Esri model can be found here: http://www.esri.com/landing-pages/tapestry.
Neighborhood Trade Area Market Segmentation Rank Tapestry Segment Percent of Households 1 Set to Impress 64.5% 2 Front Porches 15.0% 3 Bright Young Professionals 13.2% 4 In Style 4.4% 5 Parks and Rec 2.8% Other Segments 0.1% Total 100.0% Source: Esri
Overall, most households in the Neighborhood Trade Area are categorized as Set to Impress, which includes people in their 20 to 30s living alone. These individuals tend to be highly conscious of sales and prefer shopping at discount stores. They enjoy quick meals on the run and leisure activities such as sports. Across all major market segments within the Neighborhood Trade Area, apparel ranks as one of the highest consumer expenditures. A detailed overview of each consumer tapestry segment is provided in Appendix B.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
RESIDENTIAL SNAPSHOT SUPPLY
Since 2010, the number of households in the City of Saco has gradually increased, which is in line with the surrounding two-county region.
York and Cumberland Counties capture a significant portion of the residential housing market in Maine. According to the Maine Association of Realtors, 23% of the home sales in Maine occur in Cumberland County and 18% occur in York County. Sales in York County alone exceed the sales in Franklin, Lincoln, Piscataquis, Sagadahoc, Waldo, and Washington counties combined.9
Saco is an attractive place to live, as exhibited by its low housing vacancy rate. Approximately 10.3% of the housing stock in the City of Saco is vacant compared to 19.0% in York and Cumberland Counties. According to the 2018 American Community Survey, of the total vacant housing units in the City of Saco approximately 1.4% are attributed to homeowner vacancy and 6.5% are attributed to rental vacancy.
9 Maine Association of Realtors. Based on data from Maine Listings for the period 1/1/07 through 12/31/19.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Housing stock is predominately single family in the City of Saco and York and Cumberland Counties. However, there is a variety of multifamily options within the city ranging from 2 to 50+ unit properties.
Housing Units by Structure Type, 2017 York and Cumberland City of Saco Counties Number Percent Number Percent 1 Unit, Detached 4,887 58.0% 168,870 67.3% 1 Unit, Attached 453 5.4% 10,347 4.1% 2 Units 976 11.6% 15,373 6.1% 3 or 4 Units 935 11.1% 16,902 6.7% 5 to 9 Units 445 5.3% 9,742 3.9% 10 to 19 Units 145 1.7% 4,849 1.9% 20 to 49 Units 186 2.2% 5,707 2.3% 50 or More Units 100 1.2% 6,096 2.4% Mobile Homes 302 3.6% 12,890 5.1% Boat/RV/Van/etc. - 0.0% 84 0.0% Total 8,429 100.0% 250,860 100.0% Source: American Community Survey 2013 - 2017
In terms of housing age, the housing stock in the City of Saco is similar to the surrounding two-county region. Nearly 30% of the city’s housing units were built before 1939 and 97% of its housing units are more than 10-years old.
Housing Units by Year Built, 2017 York and Cumberland City of Saco Year Built Counties Number Percent Number Percent 2014 or Later 73 0.9% 1,768 0.7% 2010-2013 177 2.1% 4,626 1.8% 2000-2009 1,167 13.8% 34,127 13.6% 1990-1999 882 10.5% 30,285 12.1% 1980-1989 1,315 15.6% 38,518 15.4% 1970-1979 870 10.3% 33,342 13.3% 1960-1969 401 4.8% 17,331 6.9% 1950-1959 619 7.3% 17,923 7.1% 1940-1949 459 5.4% 13,293 5.3% 1939 or Earlier 2,466 29.3% 59,647 23.8% Median Year Structure Built 1973 1975 Source: American Community Survey 2013 - 2017
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
PRICE POINTS The figure below displays the housing values in Saco (ZIP 04072), York County, and Cumberland County from 2000 to February 2020 (2020 YTD) by the Zillow Home Value Index.10 As displayed below, the median home values in the three geographies peaked during the 2006 housing bubble dropped through 2012, and have slowly increased since 2012, now exceeding their pre-recession values.
10 The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHRI) differs from the methodology used by the American Community Survey and Esri and therefore show slightly different values.ZHRI is the median home market value for a given geography based on real time data.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
As of 2019, the median home value in the City of Saco was approximately $252,000 compared to $269,000 in York and Cumberland Counties. According to the Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc., the median sales price for homes as of March 2020 was $297,000 in York County and over $317,000 in Cumberland County. Both counties have experienced sales price growth of 10% and 9% respectively from 2019 to 2020.11
11 https://www.mainerealtors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MaineHousingReport-February2020.pdf
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
The median gross rent in the City of Saco is Gross Rent, 2017 York and Cumberland $1,010, just above York and Cumberland City of Saco Counties Counties at $986. The City of Saco has a Number Percent Number Percent greater portion of renters than the < $250 37 1.5% 2359 4.3% surrounding two-county region and $250 - $499 142 5.9% 4716 8.5% therefore a greater demand for rental $500 - $749 203 8.4% 7167 13.0% properties. $750 - $999 801 33.2% 14228 25.7% Building permit data indicates that the city $1,000 - $1,249 580 24.1% 11868 21.5% $1,250 - $1,499 461 19.1% 7894 14.3% has experienced a proportionally higher $1,500 - $1,999 128 5.3% 4957 9.0% influx of multifamily building permits, which $2,000 - $2,499 38 1.6% 1479 2.7% could be attributing to newer multifamily $2,500 - $2,999 7 0.3% 365 0.7% options that demand higher rents. $3,000 - $3,499 0 0.0% 109 0.2% $3,500 + 14 0.6% 167 0.3% Median Gross Rent $ 1,010 $ 986 Source: American Community Survey 2013 - 2017
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
DEMAND The City of Saco has two distinct areas by demographics: East of the Turnpike (Census Tracts 52, 53, 54, and 61), and West of the Turnpike (Census Tract 51). The residents of the area East of the Turnpike are slightly older than the city average, have lower incomes, and are more likely to be renters. West of the Turnpike are more affluent with a median household income of nearly $93,000 compared to $63,000 for Saco and are more likely to own their homes.
Demographics, 2019 Median Household Renter Occupied Site Median Age Income Housing Units East of Turnpike 44.2 $57,993 38.91% West of Turnpike 43.1 $92,699 9.04% City of Saco 43.9 $63,078 32.01% Source: Esri
The tables below estimate the projected change in households by income and age of householder for the West of Turnpike, East of Turnpike, City of Saco, and York and Cumberland Counties. This model projects that the city will have a net increase of 351 households between 2019 and 2024 while the combined geography of York and Cumberland Counties is projected to have a net increase of 9,397 households. Please note that these figures are projections based on historical trends and adjusted for inflation for the areas and are not reflective of any transformative projects or disruptive events that might occur.
Projections for the City of Saco and York and Cumberland Counties indicate that housing trends are favoring higher- earning households with a decline in households earning under $149,999 and an increase in those earning at least $50,000. Both geographies anticipate the largest increase in householders with earnings from $100,000 to $149,999. In terms of householder age, the leading demographic for both geographies are households with householders aged 65 and older, followed by aged 25 to 44. Households with householders aged 45 to 64 are projected to contract in the city and counties along with a modest net decline in households under the age of 25 in the city. East of Turnpike will have the greatest housing demand with 276 net new households compared to 75 West of Turnpike.
East of Turnpike Change in Households by Income and Age of Householder, 2019 - 2024 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total <$15,000 (3) (8) (12) (19) (19) (9) (4) (74) $15,000-$24,999 (7) (6) (11) (13) (18) (8) 3 (60) $25,000-$34,999 (9) (5) (12) (27) (21) (8) (1) (83) $35,000-$49,999 (6) (2) (19) (38) (29) 3 17 (74) $50,000-$74,999 11 36 4 (24) (6) 62 33 116 $75,000-$99,999 5 32 9 0 14 40 23 123 $100,000-$149,999 5 52 48 20 37 36 21 219 $150,000-$199,999 2 9 14 10 12 6 6 59 $200,000+ 0 21 2 4 4 16 3 50 Total (2) 129 23 (87) (26) 138 101 276 Source: Esri
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
West of Turnpike Change in Households by Income and Age of Householder, 2019 - 2024 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total <$15,000 0 0 (2) (7) (9) 1 2 (15) $15,000-$24,999 0 0 (4) (4) (5) 1 1 (11) $25,000-$34,999 (3) (6) (3) (10) (7) 0 4 (25) $35,000-$49,999 (1) (3) (8) (8) (10) 2 3 (25) $50,000-$74,999 (2) (5) (3) (19) (18) 9 12 (26) $75,000-$99,999 0 1 (1) (15) (5) 18 2 0 $100,000-$149,999 0 14 17 (9) 18 28 7 75 $150,000-$199,999 0 11 15 12 11 10 7 66 $200,000+ 0 1 5 6 13 11 0 36 Total (6) 13 16 (54) (12) 80 38 75 Source: Esri
City of Saco Change in Households by Income and Age of Householder, 2019 - 2024 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total <$15,000 (3) (8) (14) (26) (28) (8) (2) (89) $15,000-$24,999 (7) (6) (15) (17) (23) (7) 4 (71) $25,000-$34,999 (12) (11) (15) (37) (28) (8) 3 (108) $35,000-$49,999 (7) (5) (27) (46) (39) 5 20 (99) $50,000-$74,999 9 31 1 (43) (24) 71 45 90 $75,000-$99,999 5 33 8 (15) 9 58 25 123 $100,000-$149,999 5 66 65 11 55 64 28 294 $150,000-$199,999 2 20 29 22 23 16 13 125 $200,000+ 0 22 7 10 17 27 3 86 Total (8) 142 39 (141) (38) 218 139 351 Source: Esri York and Cumberland Counties Change in Households by Income and Age of Householder, 2019 - 2024 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total <$15,000 (29) (493) (407) (620) (1,029) (400) (39) (3,017) $15,000-$24,999 (103) (379) (367) (474) (767) (353) 70 (2,373) $25,000-$34,999 (174) (601) (507) (789) (844) (380) 177 (3,118) $35,000-$49,999 (66) (508) (508) (901) (978) (171) 556 (2,576) $50,000-$74,999 127 (71) (148) (993) (923) 1,205 1,281 478 $75,000-$99,999 98 411 373 (341) 4 1,429 1,036 3,010 $100,000-$149,999 134 1,264 1,693 393 1,129 2,202 1,524 8,339 $150,000-$199,999 75 748 1,096 864 1,094 957 682 5,516 $200,000+ 22 374 594 255 582 929 382 3,138 Total 84 745 1,819 (2,606) (1,732) 5,418 5,669 9,397 Source: Esri Housing demand in Portland is leading to an increase in demand and prices regionally. According to the Vitalius Real Estate Group, there is a high demand for 5+ unit multifamily builds in the Greater Portland region and low supply. The Mills at Saco Falls in the historic district of Biddeford, ME is an example of a successful conversion of a textile mill into luxury apartments. The Mills reports that over half their tenants are in their 20’s, which similarly matches the younger demographic in the Neighborhood Trade Area. In addition to a favoring rental market, lower mortgage rates are boosting housing sales nationally.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
OFFICE SNAPSHOT SUPPLY
In the York County market, retail and office space are typically grouped into one category with a total inventory of 3.585 million square feet. Saco makes up about 11% of the inventory with about 395,000 square feet of space.12 The average vacancy is about 8%, and Saco’s vacancy rate is a point lower at 7%.
As of 2019, the office market in the larger Greater Portland market has an inventory of 12.2 million square feet and a vacancy rate of 6.34%. Downtown absorption remains strong with asking rents continuing to increase. Class A space, the highest quality space, in downtown environments exhibits an extremely low vacancy rate of less than 1% in 2019. While it is closer to 13% in suburban settings. New construction is expected to slow into 2020 and 2021.13 DEMAND Traditional Office Space
Future demand for office space is dependent on growth in office-utilizing industry sectors. Saco (ZIP 04072) and York and Cumberland Counties are projected to grow their office utilizing industries by 3% from 2010 to 2024.
Saco (04072) Projected Growth in Office-Utilizing Industries, 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 NAICS Description 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs Change % Change 51 Information 87 87 0 0% 52 Finance and Insurance 343 348 5 1% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 556 601 45 8% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 126 137 11 9% Administrative and Support and Waste 56 616 612 (4) (1%) Management and Remediation Services 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 397 404 7 2% 90 Government 936 967 31 3% Office-Utilizing Industries 3,060 3,155 95 3% Source: EMSI
12 Will Armitage, York County Market Overview, Southern Main Finance Agency, January 2020. 13 Nate Stevens, Southern Maine Office Forecast presented at MEREDA’s 2020 Annual Conference, The Boulos Company, 2020.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
York and Cumberland Counties Projected Growth in Office-Utilizing Industries, 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 NAICS Description 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs Change % Change 51 Information 4,145 4,045 (100) (2%) 52 Finance and Insurance 15,284 15,607 323 2% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 17,973 19,801 1,828 10% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 6,312 6,922 610 10% Administrative and Support and Waste 56 14,349 14,592 243 2% Management and Remediation Services 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 13,531 14,066 535 4% 90 Government 39,747 39,703 (44) (0%) Office-Utilizing Industries 111,341 114,737 3,396 3% Source: EMSI
The figure below estimates the rentable square footage (RSF) that growth in these office-utilizing industries will demand. Under the conservative assumption that each new worker will require 175 rentable square feet (RSF) of office space14, new demand for office space will be nearly 17,000 SF in Saco and over 593,000 SF in York and Cumberland Counties from 2019 to 2024. While demand is minimal in Saco, it is feasible that Saco’s downtown could capture some of the demand from the surrounding counties.
New Demand for Office Space, 2019 - 2024 Change in Office-Utilizing Rentable Square Feet New Demand for Office Jobs, 2019 - 2024 (RSF) per New Worker Space (RSF) Saco (04072) 95 175 16,707 York and Cumberland Counties 3,396 175 594,307 Source: EMSI, Camoin 310, U.S. General Services Administration
Medical Office Space
Future demand for medical office space is examined using employment projections for ambulatory care and outpatient care services between 2019 and 2024. Overall, there are a small presence of ambulatory care and outpatient care services in Saco as of 2019 and projections indicate a slight contraction in medical office-related jobs for the city. A standard assumption of 200 rentable square feet is used to calculate the amount of medical office space needed per worker. Using this assumption, Saco is expected to experience a slight contraction in medical office space needs while York and Cumberland County will require nearly 168,000 SF medical office space.
14 A 2010 report from the U.S. General Services Administration, “Workspace Utilization and Allocation Benchmark,” found average rentable office space per employee to be 230 square feet. As a result of efforts to implement more efficient design standards, the typical office standard has declined from around 250 square feet per workstation in the early 2000s to around 190 square feet or less. In addition, a trend toward less personal workspace in favor or larger group space, as well as an increase in teleworking will likely contribute to continued declines in office space per employee.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
New Demand for Medical Office Space, 2019 - 2024 New Demand for Change in Medical Office- Rentable Square Feet Medical Office Space Utilizing Jobs, 2019 - 2024 (RSF) per New Worker (RSF) Saco (04072) (25) 200 (5,000) York and Cumberland Counties 839 200 167,800 Source: EMSI, Camoin 310, U.S. General Services Administration
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
INDUSTRIAL SNAPSHOT SUPPLY
The City of Saco is located within the Greater Portland Industrial market, which includes nearly 600 buildings totaling 19 MSF and a vacancy rate of 1.84%.15 For several years, this market has been defined by a critical lack of inventory, which, combined with a severe labor shortage, limits economic development across the region. These conditions make it challenging for businesses to find adequate space to meet their needs and give landlords the leverage to be choosy about tenants. Competition is stiff and off-market or early-market deals are common with multiple offers.
The Dunham Group issued an Industrial Market Survey in 2019 that indicated the industrial market in Greater Portland corrected slightly in 2018 with the influx of larger, quality space leading to a temporary increase in vacancy, which ticked back downward in 2019. Price points in the Greater Portland Industrial Market continued to increase to an average sales price of nearly $70 per SF and average lease $6.78 per SF.
Saco was noted as one of the most “…successful and attractive industrial areas in Southern Maine.” Saco’s proximity to I-95, supportive zoning and municipal utilities have allowed for growth at Saco’s Mill Brook Business Park and industrial park.
The vacancy rate for industrial space in Saco at 2.74%, which is low for a typical market; however, Saco’s vacancy is currently the second-highest rate in the Greater Portland Market. Mill space represents most of the vacancy in Saco and the region. Other communities with significant mill space include Biddeford, which has the highest vacancy rate at 5.2% (100,000 SF mills space available), and Sanford, not included in the Greater Portland Market, with a vacancy rate of 7.78% (660,000 SF mill space available).16 Regarding price, Saco’s average asking lease rate of $7.25 per SF NNN is among the highest in the Greater Portland Region, second only to Portland, which is $1 more per SF.
Within York County, Saco holds 20% of the industrial inventory with approximately 1.65 million SF. Acreage available for industrial development is limited in York County. Saco has about 135 acres available, second only to Sanford with 1,600 available acres.
Greater Portland Industrial Market Inventory Avg. Asking Lease Rate City/Town Total Buildings Available SF Vacancy Rate (SF NNN) Biddeford 53 105,298 5.2% $5.25 Gorham 41 0 0.0% N/A Portland 228 127,346 2.0% $8.25 Saco 58 41,082 2.7% $7.25 Scarborough 93 13,800 0.5% $6.95 South Portland 50 32,356 1.1% $5.75 Westbrook 70 32,670 1.2% $6.50 Greater Portland 593 352,552 1.8% $6.78 Market Source: NAI The Dunham Group, Industrial Market Review & 2020 Forecast: Greater Portland
15 NAI The Dunham Group, Industrial Market Review & 2020 Forecast: Greater Portland. 16 Southern Maine Finance Agency, York County Market Overview. January 2020.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
DEMAND For the last several years, the greatest demand is for smaller spaces under 10,000 SF. Other criteria tenants are looking for include flex style spaces loading docks. This type of product is largely unavailable in the Greater Portland market.17
Despite the critically low availability of the product, new construction is limited because the price divide between existing space and new development is significant. Most speculative projects are asking at or above $10 per SF NNN, creating a $4 PSF to $5 PSF difference in price points between old and new.18 In 2018-2019, these conditions hit a breaking point and several new buildings were constructed in the 10,000-20,000 SF category; however, absorption was a bit slower than expected as these projects were all competing against each other and still larger than what most tenants were looking for.
Industrial sectors represent approximately 14% of total jobs in Saco and 13% of the total jobs in York and Cumberland Counties. The Manufacturing, Transportation and Warehousing, and Wholesale Trade sectors require the use of various industrial spaces. Employment in these industries is expected to contract slightly across Saco and the region between 2019 and 2024. This is a statewide trend, as workforce availability, energy, and availability of business services continue to challenge the industrial market in Maine.
Manufacturing is projected to increase in the larger region and presents an opportunity for Saco to capture some of this growth with the right site offerings. Furthermore, as the manufacturing sector transitions to increased automation, technical equipment, and storage needs demand for industrial space may increase. Under these new conditions, stagnant job growth could be met with increased demand for industrial space. According to NAIOP, industries projected to increase their demand for industrial space include fabricated metals, plastics wood, and furniture products while computer and electronic, chemical products, apparel, and textile manufacturing are projected to decrease their industrial space demands.19
Saco (04072) Projected Growth in Industrial Industries, 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 NAICS Description 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs Change % Change 31 Manufacturing 696 690 (6) (1%) 42 Wholesale Trade 363 323 (40) (11%) 48 Transportation and Warehousing 1,154 1,197 43 4% Industrial Industries 2,213 2,210 (3) (0%) Source: EMSI
York and Cumberland Counties Projected Growth in Industrial Industries, 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 2019 - 2024 NAICS Description 2019 Jobs 2024 Jobs Change % Change 31 Manufacturing 20,437 20,889 452 2% 42 Wholesale Trade 9,298 9,112 (186) (2%) 48 Transportation and Warehousing 7,526 7,125 (401) (5%) Industrial Industries 37,261 37,126 (135) (0%) Source: EMSI
17 NAI The Dunham Group, Greater Portland Industrial Market Survey, 2019. 18 Ibid. 19 NAIOP Research Foundation, Stabilization of the U.S. Manufacturing Sector and Its Impact on Industrial Space June 2013.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
COMPETITIVENESS ASSESSMENT We compared Saco to several local comparative geographies including Biddeford, Westbrook, Gorham, Scarborough, Portland, South Portland, and Falmouth. We examined metrics pertaining to business development and private sector investment; customer service; innovation; market position for residential, commercial, and industrial opportunities; infrastructure needs; and workforce assets. ASSETS
Access to effective cost controls – The City of Saco has economic cost controls to incentivize business startup and expansion including Opportunity Zones in census tract 23031005200 and Pine Tree Zones. The City of Saco is the only comparison geography that offers both cost controls. Moderate housing prices and healthy vacancy rate – Of the eight comparison geographies, the City of Saco’s housing prices are mid-range. The City of Saco offers a more affordable option for rental and homeownership than Scarborough, Portland, and Falmouth. As of August 2020, the vacancy rate for multifamily in Saco was 4.6%, which is a healthy vacancy rate that indicates the market is attractive to potential tenants and property owners are offering competitive amenities. OPPORTUNITIES
Leverage cost controls to build job growth – Between 2010 and 2019, the City of Saco’s population grew by 8% while its job opportunities grew by 4%. During that time, contraction in the Wholesale Trade and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services hindered job growth for the city. Available industrial and flex space – According to CoStar 2020 YTD20 data, the vacancy rate for industrial and flex space in the City of Saco was 12.4%. For comparison, there is about 1.2% vacant space in Biddeford and Gorham and 1.5% in South Portland. Additionally, the rental rate in Saco is lower than the rates in Westbrook, Gorham, Portland, and Falmouth. Available office space – According to CoStar 2020 YTD data, the office vacancy rate in Saco is 7.4%, which ranks the second-highest to South Portland (9.1%) and ties with Scarborough (7.4%). CHALLENGES
High (but not the highest) taxes – The property tax rate in Saco is $18.1 per thousand dollars of assessed value, ranking among the higher rates of the geographies studies. The municipal tax rate in Saco is $19.67 per thousand dollars of assessed value making it lower than Portland ($23.31), Biddeford ($20.05), and South Portland ($19.75). Overall, Saco is competitive in terms of taxes compared to Portland, Biddeford, and South Portland. However, Falmouth, Gorham, Westbrook, and Scarborough offer lower tax rates. Slow employment growth – Job growth has been slow in the City of Saco, growing by 4% from 2010 to 2019. During that time, the other geographies grew as much as 17%. Low economic output – The competitiveness assessment examined economic output per capita as a measure of Gross Regional Product (GRP) per person and retail sales per person. The City of Saco ranked second-lowest in terms of economic output per capita ($39,292). For retail sales per capita, Saco ranked the third-lowest ($18,995 of retail sales per capital), above Biddeford and Gorham.
20 CoStar Year to Date (YTD) data covers January 2020 – August 2020.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Saco Commercial Development Comparative Analysis Municipality Saco Biddeford Westbrook Gorham Scarborough Portland South Portland Falmouth Average County York York Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Population 19,955 22,617 19,970 17,920 20,836 70,835 26,265 12,737 Population Growth % - Past 8.0% 6.3% 14.2% 9.4% 10.1% 7.0% 5.1% 13.9% 9.2% 10 years Median Household $63,078 $53,424 $55,294 $84,609 $92,411 $54,718 $63,878 $110,589 $72,250 Income Median Age of 43.9 39.2 41 39.8 47.3 38.2 40.8 48 42.28 Population Education Attainment -% Pop 25 yrs. or 39.0% 27.0% 32.9% 47.4% 56.1% 51.1% 45.2% 71.6% 46.3% older with bachelors or more
Employment - persons that work at 9,333 14,965 15,059 6,137 17,327 73,845 28,085 7,208 establishments within the municipality
Employment 0.47 0.66 0.75 0.34 0.83 1.04 1.07 0.57 0.72 Per Capita Employment Growth % - Past 4.0% 8.8% 16.8% 9.0% 12.6% 11.6% 8.1% 8.8% 10.0% 10 Years Labor Force - residents in 11,668 13,276 10,870 10,748 11,934 42,772 15,409 7,015 labor force Economic $784,064,834 $1,245,658,005 $1,736,619,143 $564,525,706 $1,930,607,203 $7,972,145,364 $2,973,285,767 $650,945,332 Output Economic Output per $39,292 $55,076 $86,961 $31,503 $92,657 $112,545 $113,203 $51,107 $72,793 capita Retail Sales $379,052,352 $418,062,112 $383,403,680 $132,666,616 $641,590,400 $1,813,591,680 $1,182,546,944 $297,922,080
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Saco Commercial Development Comparative Analysis Municipality Saco Biddeford Westbrook Gorham Scarborough Portland South Portland Falmouth Average County York York Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Retail Sales Per $18,995 $18,484 $19,199 $7,403 $30,792 $25,603 $45,024 $23,390 $23,611 Capita Property Tax Base - State Full $2,653,400,000 $2,639,350,000 $2,268,700,000 $1,992,000,000 $4,778,350,000 $10,507,000,000 $4,622,350,000 $2,726,900,000 Value
Property Tax $132,969 $116,698 $113,605 $111,161 $229,331 $148,331 $175,989 $214,093 $155,272 Base Per Capita
Property Tax Base Growth % 12% -2% 14% 25% 19% 18% 11% 17% 14% - Past 10 years
Property Tax Rate - State Full 18.1 19.4 17.27 15.7 14.84 18.08 15.98 14.22 16.69875 Value 23.31 (will not 14.70 (will not Municipal Tax change until at 19.67 20.05 17.86 18.95 change until 19.75 16.87 Rate least September) September) Median Home $262,115 $220,279 $220,110 $268,505 $361,193 $275,255 $242,013 $443,898 $286,671 Value Median Gross $1,010 $927 $964 $985 $1,255 $1,079 $1,226 $1,528 $1,122 Rent Vacancy Rate - 10% 15% 5% 4% 13% 9% 5% 9% 9% Housing Vacancy Rate - 3% 5% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% Industrial Vacancy Rate - Residential 5% 5% 8% 3% 4% 7% 5% 2% 5% excluding seasonal Effective Rent Per Unit - $1,083 $959 $1,208 $939 $1,547 $1,357 $1,630 $1,614 $1,292 Multifamily
Gross Rent $11.80 $8.38 $11.78 $18.00 $13.80 $19.44 $11.43 $15.20 $13.73 Overall - Office
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Saco Commercial Development Comparative Analysis Municipality Saco Biddeford Westbrook Gorham Scarborough Portland South Portland Falmouth Average County York York Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland Cumberland NNN Rent Overall - $7.83 $5.55 $8.36 $10.08 $7.72 $8.88 $6.67 $9.00 $8.01 Industrial and Flex Vacancy Rate - 4.6% 6.0% 6.6% 5.4% 10.6% 2.0% 4.5% 2.3% 5.3% Multifamily Vacancy Rate - 7.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.8% 7.4% 4.6% 9.1% 2.2% 4.5% Office
Vacancy Rate - Industrial and 12.4% 1.2% 2.4% 1.2% 3.0% 5.2% 1.5% 8.7% 4.5% Flex
Opportunity Zones (Census 23031005200 NA 23005002800 NA NA 23005000300 23005003000 NA Tracts)
Pine Tree Zones Yes Yes No No No No No No
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Saco Commercial Development Comparative Analysis - Data Sources & Dates Year of Data Source of Data
Population Esri 2019 Population Growth % - Past 10 years Esri 2010-2019 Median Household Income Esri 2019 Median Age of Population Esri 2019 Education Attainment -% Pop 25 yrs. or older with Esri 2019 bachelors or more Employment - persons that work at establishments EMSI 2019 within the municipality Employment Per Capita Camoin 310 2019 Employment Growth % - Past 10 Years EMSI 2010-2019 Labor Force - residents in labor force Esri 2019 Economic Output EMSI 2019 Economic Output per capita Camoin 310 2019 https://www.maine.gov/revenue/research Retail Sales 2019 /sales/TownAnnual032020.xlsx Retail Sales Per Capita Camoin 310 2019 https://www.maine.gov/revenue/property Property Tax Base - State Full Value 2020 tax/sidebar/2020_state_valuation.pdf Property Tax Base Per Capita Camoin 310 2019/2020 Property Tax Base Growth % - Past 10 years State Valuation History 2010-2019 https://www.maine.gov/revenue/property Property Tax Rate - State Full Value 2016 tax/municipalservices/fullvalue.htm Municipal Tax Rate Municipal Websites 2019 Median Home Value Esri 2019 Median Gross Rent Esri 2019 Vacancy Rate - Housing Esri/American Community survey 2019 NAI The Dunham Group, Industrial Market Vacancy Rate - Industrial 2019 Review & 2020 Forecast: Greater Portland
American Community Survey 5 year Vacancy Rate - Residential excluding seasonal 2018 estimate Effective Rent Per Unit - Multifamily CoStart & Local Real Estate Reports 0 Gross Rent Overall - Office CoStart & Local Real Estate Reports 0 NNN Rent Overall - Industrial and Flex CoStart & Local Real Estate Reports 0 Vacancy Rate - Multifamily CoStart & Local Real Estate Reports 2020 YTD Vacancy Rate - Office CoStart & Local Real Estate Reports 2020 YTD Vacanacy Rate - Industrial and Flex CoStart & Local Real Estate Reports 2020 YTD
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
WHAT WE HEARD The market research included several opportunities for individuals to provide their opinions and validate the data- analysis with first-hand knowledge. A community survey, survey of City staff, stakeholder workshops, and interviews with business leaders provided a detailed picture of current economic development issues, challenges, and opportunities in Saco. Through these multi-channel engagement efforts (digital surveys, phone calls, and Zoom meetings), the study team collected input from over 100 people. Their input has been summarized around core themes: Downtown and Riverfront, Housing, Workforce, Retail and Restaurants, and City Government. DOWNTOWN & RIVERFRONT Downtown Saco is the heart of the community. Throughout this strategic planning process, stakeholders expressed that Main Street is safe, walkable, and aesthetic. The following concerns were mentioned:
Lack of adequate parking and traffic concerns – A lack of parking was noted by many. Survey respondents indicated that they would be more likely to spend their time and money in downtown Saco if there were more adequate parking options and traffic was less of an issue. Traffic and congestion are hindering residents and visitors from spending time and money in Saco’s downtown businesses. Route 1 from the highway ramp through to Biddeford continues to be a major bottleneck area to be avoided. Signage restrictions limit business visibility – A lack of visibility due to sign restrictions was noted as a significant challenge for some consumer-based businesses. Interviewees indicated a desire for more flexibility in size and style. Furthermore, some downtown businesses expressed a desire for support with their marketing efforts to reach a larger audience and attract more customers downtown. Need for repairs and vacant properties – With older properties comes increased need for repairs. Some properties downtown require major upgrades to sell, thus hindering their attractiveness to potential buyers. Other interviewees noted that vacant first floor properties are creating a less than inviting fell downtown. Incentivizing necessary repairs through state and federal grant opportunities while promoting downtown retail and housing options would help to fill these spaces. A major opportunity to increase the vibrancy of downtown Saco is to better integrate the mill area of Saco with the downtown similar to Old Port in Portland, Maine. Infusing boutique retail, public art, downtown housing options, and building off the Eastern Trail would attract both residents and visitors alike. Historic preservation is also a priority for many and a desire to balance bringing density into the downtown while also retaining historic homes and character.
Overall, Saco’s riverfront is seen as having great economic potential, but is currently an underutilized asset. Visions for the riverfront include greater connectivity with Biddeford, more access, improved pedestrian and transportation infrastructure, and – specifically around Saco Island -- some kind of significant entertainment/tourism oriented development.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
HOUSING Housing is a critical component of quality and sense of place for a community. There are differing opinions about the appropriate residential mix for the city; some encourage density while others noted opposition to additional housing and mixed-use development.
Survey respondents indicated that Portland Road, Route 112 Corridor, and near the Biddeford-Saco County club would be ideal locations for mixed-use development within Saco. Other opportunities include creating residential offerings in the mill buildings like the Lincoln Mill Development in Biddeford.
Challenges such as restrictive site requirements, challenging permitting processes, and local opposition to mixed- use development is hindering housing development opportunities in Saco. Interviewees noted that development in Saco is more difficult and less welcoming than in the neighboring town of Scarborough. Maintaining ongoing dialog, that is welcoming and flexible, between the City of Saco and the development community to determine appropriate housing density for locations is important for the success of future housing projects. WORKFORCE
According to local Saco businesses, one of the greatest challenges they face is staffing, and right now this is at a crisis level with COVID-19. Service businesses have faced challenges with workers not feeling safe to return to work in the pandemic. Hiring for local businesses often happens through word of mouth, making it difficult to find skilled and trade workers that reside outside the region. Education and training opportunities in Saco’s major industry sectors will be key to creating a sustainable workforce to support local businesses. RETAIL AND RESTAURANTS The retail market analysis shows that retail in Saco experiences an increase in sales during the summer months when tourism is at its peak. Saco retail is reliant on its residential base to support retail the remainder of the year. With historic growth and the potential to continue growing in terms of population and households, Saco retailers seemed generally optimistic about the future of retail, despite the current disruption due to COVID-19.
Survey respondents demonstrated that there is local demand for coffee shops, upscale clothing, restaurants, breweries/distilleries, hardware store, and organic food stores. Creating niche retail options where Saco stores can remain cost-competitive within the regional market can help to attract customers year-round. Sporting goods stores in Saco have tapped into this trend by offering goods that are exclusive to stores, giving them a greater customer draw.
There is also an opportunity to provide the local workforce with quality dining options that can be accessed during lunch hours. While there are fast food options along Route 1, this area can be congested, and residents and workers alike are searching for alternative dining options. Creating casual and finer dining options that are situated near concentrated employment centers can fill this gap.
Nationally, COVID-19 is impacting business development and Saco is no exception. Diminished funds and tourism figures have reduced sales for downtown businesses. The City of Saco can help to mitigate impacts from the pandemic by helping businesses to develop a strong online presence and providing networking opportunities. Business owners that were interviewed noted that reduced rent and taxes would help significantly during these trying times.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
CITY GOVERNMENT General perceptions of the City of Saco government indicate that the government is viewed as business-friendly with smooth (but slow) permitting and review processes. Certain businesses noted that the City of Saco was helpful in helping to arrange TIFs for their operations. Some parties expressed concern that the government staff is not ‘out and about’ within the community (pre-COVID-19). Others noted that Saco lacks competitiveness compared to nearby communities due to development constraints. Individuals expressed the desire for the City of Saco to be more engaged in the community and to support a more flexible development process.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
ACTION PLAN
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Initiative Recommendation Description Next Steps Business Attraction Focus attraction efforts Industry sectors with strengths, and opportunities, in Saco include: light The City of Saco's strength in supporting real estate development is one of communicator and & Recruitment on industry sectors with industral, manufacturing & logistics, professional & technical services, and health connector. The City should avoid property acquisition for economic development. The City is local and regional care. not a developer because it can be risky and is therefore better handled by the market. The strength City's primary role is to communicate about properties, assets and opportunities, and to connect businesses and developers with those properties and sites. Work with developers on the best projects, which may be business parks, infill, or mixed-use development.
Light Industrial, This sector has a strong tradition in the region and state with historical growth. It Focus development in business parks, and along the Route 1 corridor. Continue to support Manufacturing & includes a blend of small and large businesses in food production, aerospace, existing business and industrial parks through marketing efforts (attraction and helping fill Logistics medical and life sciences related manufacturing, and textiles. Growth buildings as the become available). Ensure land and property listings are up to date, keep the opportunities are present in the cross section of logistics and manufacturing. Pre- City's website up to date, and continue ongoing discussions with the real estate and Covid, demand was for small flex spaces under 10,000 SF with loading docks, development community. which is not available in the market and price-prohibitive to build. During the pandemic and afterward, this market gap is likely to increase, with increased demand for warehouse and logistics. Professional & Profession and technical services are small in size but have historic and projected Focus development in mixed-use areas. Consult with Maine Department of Economic and Technical Services growth with higher than average wages in emerging industries. This sector Community Development, and other site locators, outside private and non-profit economic includes business services such as engineering, information technology, research development agencies and organizations for leads on companies, firms, and businesses and development, and media and business services. Pre-Covid, there were slight looking to locate in the southern Maine region. increases in office space demand and supply; however, post-Covid there is great uncertainty, and likely greater supply than demand and a market shift to low- density office space options. Health Care This is a large and growing sector with projected growth, both locally and Continue to attract health service providers similar to the growth currently occurring just regionally. The challenge is increasing opportunities for mid-higher earning outside of Downtown along Route 1. This sector offers attractive careers and jobs in the occupations. Saco is located between two major medical areas: the hospital in healthcare field, as well as investment in new office locations. This creates demand and Biddeford and the healthcare network in Portland. The opportunity for Saco is synergies within commercial districts. Promote workforce assets associated with health care, outpatient specialty services and healthcare related offices. Medical office space and focus development in mixed-use areas. is strong and growing locally and regionally today. Industry projections support increased demand. Expand and maintain There is an abundance of available commercial and light industrial space Work with the real estate community and property owners to maintain current information updated real estate available for sale and lease in Saco currently. The challenge is the lack of about properties that are on the market. Ensure that this information is being populated on listings for commercial information that is widely available about these properties. regional and national real estate aggregators like LoopNet. Disseminate this information to and light industrial sites. economic development partners (Maine & Co., DECD, Biddeford-Saco Economic Development Corporation, and Southern Maine Reginal Planning). Establish a direct line of communication with commercial brokers in Southern Maine. Educate the market on where to find information about available sites and properties.
Initiative Recommendation Description Next Steps Communicate the value Saco has a number of good economic development incentives available to the Incorporate information about the Pine Tree Zone, Opportunity Zone, and Tax Increment and availability of Saco's development community; however, awareness of and information about these Financing Districts into economic development webpages, and other marketing materials economic development tools is limited. related to real estate development opportunities. incentives
Clarify and promote There is confusion about the actual impact fees a business will experience if they The Planning & Economic Development Department should work with Water Resources Saco's impact fee system move to Saco, which can deter businesses from considering the City. Saco does Department to clarify the impact fees, share this information with businesses, investors, have impact fees; however it is an "all-in" cost, which means businesses avoid developers, and the real estate community. Create a simple cut-sheet with infographics additional fees in the future. compairing Saco's impact fee system to surrounding communities. Promote Saco's transparent impact fee model as an advantage in marketing for business attraction.
Business Retention Focus BRE efforts on By focusing the BRE program on businesses within opportunity sectors, a wealth The City initiated a BRE Business Outreach and Visitation Program in early 2020, which & Expansion opportunity industries, of information about industry trends, needs, etc. will become readily available included purchasing and populating ExecutivePulse software as a business resource and business park tenants, and can be used to develop attraction strategies. Share this information with database. Staff also sent a letter and survey to all business across the City. This process was and the real estate development partners (i.e. realtors, brokers, economic development partner, put on hold due to the pandemic. Next steps should include targeting about 30 businesses to community etc.). contact personally to kickstart the initiative in 2021, and to resume the full BRE program when possible post-Covid. Retail, Arts, This sector is the largest driver of economic output (GRP) in Saco, and was on Focus on helping existing businesses survive, support Downtown growth and investments, Accommodations, & upward trend pre-Covid. These businesses are facing high losses due to Covid- and ensure that future businesses help support the downtown as a walkable, mixed-use Food Services 19, with lots of risk and uncertainty. The impacts vary by sub-sector based on human-scale environment. Partner with Saco Main Street to support BRE and business their ability to adapt, differentiate, and meet local demand. attraction for this sector. Strategic Mixed- Plan, prepare for, and A regional differentiating factor is the ability of a community to attract and Identify nodes within the City, such as along Route 1, the Saco-Biddeford connection in the Use Development support mixed-use support mixed-use development. It continues to be in demand, including high- Mill District, and riverfront, to focus mixed-use development and work to attract private sector development in identified profile projects (e.g. The Downs, Scarborough, Rock Row, Westbrook; Biddeford investment into these nodes using the City's economic tools (TIF, Opportunity Zone, Pine Tree nodes throughout the Downtown, Biddeford; and Portland Foreside, Portland). Mixed use development Zone, etc.) This requires a willingness to accept residential development within mixed-use, to City that integrates housing, office, retail, and entertainment uses is highly sought provide the right financial balance for the developer. after throughout the region and present an opportunity for Saco to strengthen its tax base and economic strengths. Riverfront Unlock riverfront access The riverfront is one of Saco's important community and economic development Work closely with the City of Biddeford to plan for and implement riverfront projects that will Vitalization and development assets, and it continues to be underutilized for commercial development, public benefit both sides of the riverfront and both downtowns. Engage property owners, riverfront potential access, and recreation. anchors, and other strategic partners. The bike-pedestrian bridge across the Saco River is an example of this type of project that is ongoing. Continue to seek similar opportunities.
Activate the riverfront It is important for the community and region to recognize the important asset Work with community partners to bring more awareness to the riverfront potential through with events and that they have in the riverfront. One way to increase positive perceptions is to planned events and activities. Partner with Saco Main Street on these efforts. All should be programming focus community events and activities on/at the riverfront. backed with strong marketing and communications with the goal of creating advocates for the riverfront. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
APPENDICES A: DATA SOURCES
ECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALISTS INTERNATIONAL (EMSI) To analyze the industrial makeup of a study area, industry data organized by the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) is assessed. Camoin Associates subscribes to Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI), a proprietary data provider that aggregates economic data from approximately 90 sources. EMSI industry data, in our experience, is more complete than most or perhaps all local data sources (for more information on EMSI, please see www.economicmodeling.com). This is because local data sources typically miss significant employment counts by industry because data on sole proprietorships and contractual employment (i.e. 1099 contractor positions) is not included and because certain employment counts are suppressed from BLS/BEA figures for confidentiality reasons when too few establishments exist within a single NAICS code.
ESRI BUSINESS ANALYST ONLINE (BAO) ESRI is the leading provider of location-driven market insights. It combines demographic, lifestyle, and spending data with map-based analytics to provide market intelligence for strategic decision-making. ESRI uses proprietary statistical models and data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Postal Service, and various other sources to present current conditions and project future trends. Esri data are used by developers to maximize their portfolio, retailers to understand growth opportunities, and by economic developers to attract business that fit their community. For more information, visit www.esri.com.
AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY (ACS), U.S. CENSUS The American Community Survey (ACS) is an ongoing statistical survey by the U.S. Census Bureau that gathers demographic and socioeconomic information on age, sex, race, family and relationships, income and benefits, health insurance, education, veteran status, disabilities, commute patterns, and other topics. The survey is mandatory to fill out, but the survey is only sent to a small sample of the population on a rotating basis. The survey is crucial to major planning decisions, like vital services and infrastructure investments, made by municipalities and cities. The questions on the ACS are different than those asked on the decennial census and provide ongoing demographic updates of the nation down to the block group level. For more information on the ACS, visit http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/
ONTHEMAP, U.S. CENSUS OnTheMap is a tool developed through the U.S. Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program that helps to visualize Local Employment Dynamics (LED) data about where workers are employed and where they live. There are also visual mapping capabilities for data on age, earnings, industry distributions, race, ethnicity, educational attainment, and sex. The OnTheMap tool can be found here, along with links to documentation: http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
B: TAPESTRY SEGMENTATION DEFINITIONS Set to Impress Average Household Size: 2.12 people Median Age: 22.9 years Median Household Income: $32,800 Set to Impress is depicted by medium to large multiunit apartments with lower than average rents. These apartments are often nestled into neighborhoods with other businesses or single-family housing. Nearly one in three residents is 20 to 34 years old, and over half of the homes are single person and nonfamily households. Although many residents live alone, they preserve close connections with their family. Income levels are low; many work in food service while they are attending college. This group is always looking for a deal. They are conscious of their image and seek to bolster their status with the latest fashion. Set to Impress residents are tapped into popular music and the local music scene.
Consumer Preferences:
They listen to a variety of the latest music and download music online. Majority have cell phones only, no landlines. They use the Internet for social media, downloading video games, and watching TV programs. They own used, imported vehicles. Residents prefer shopping for bargains at Walmart, including discount stores like Big Lots, and the local dollar store. They enjoy leisure activities including going to rock concerts, night clubs, and the zoo.
Front Porches Average Household Size: 2.57 people Median Age: 34.9 years Median Household Income: $43,700 This segment blends household types, with many young families with children and single households. More than half of householders are renters, and many of the homes are older town homes or duplexes. Friends and family are central to Front Porches residents and help to influence household buying decisions. Households tend to own just one vehicle but used only when needed. Income and net worth of these residents are well below the US average.
Consumer Preferences:
Go online for gaming, watching movies, employment searches, and posting pics on social media. Prefer cellphones over landlines, and use their mobile devices for entertainment such as streaming movies and music. Drink energy and sports drinks. Participate in leisure activities including sports, playing board games and video games. Watch Comedy Central, Nickelodeon, and PBS Kids Sprout.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Bright Young Professionals Average Household Size: 2.41 people Median Age: 33.0 years Median Household Income: $54,000 Bright Young Professionals are primarily located in urban outskirts of large metropolitan areas. These communities are home to young, educated, working professionals. More than one out of three householders is under the age of 35. Slightly more diverse couples dominate this market, with more renters than homeowners. Labor force participation is high, generally white-collar work, with a mix of food service and part-time jobs (among the college students). Residents of this segment are physically active and up on the latest technology.
Consumer Preferences:
Own retirement savings and student loans. Own newer computers (desktop, laptop, or both), iPods, and 2+ TVs. Go online and use mobile devices for banking, access YouTube or Facebook, visit blogs, download movies, and play games. Use cell phones to text, redeem mobile coupons, listen to music, and check for news and financial information. Find leisure going to bars/clubs, attending concerts, going to the beach, and renting DVDs from Redbox or Netflix. Enjoy a variety of sports, including backpacking, rock climbing, football, Pilates, running, and yoga. Eat out often at fast-food and family restaurants.
In Style Average Household Size: 2.35 people Median Age: 42.0 years Median Household Income: $73,000 They embrace an urbane lifestyle that includes support of the arts, travel, and extensive reading. They are connected and make full use of the advantages of mobile devices. Professional couples or single households without children, they have the time to focus on their homes and their interests. The population is slightly older and already planning for their retirement.
Consumer Preferences:
Partial to late model SUVs: compact SUVs are gaining popularity. Homes integral part of their style; invest in home remodeling/maintenance, DIY or contractors; housekeeping hired. Prefer organic foods, including growing their own vegetables. Financially active, own a variety of investments often managed by a financial planner. Meticulous planners, both well insured and well invested in retirement savings.
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Generous with support of various charities and causes. Actively support the arts, theater, concerts, and museums.
Parks and Rec Average Household Size: 2.25 people Median Age: 40.9 years Median Household Income: $60,000 These practical suburbanites have achieved the dream of home ownership. They have purchased homes that are within their means. Their homes are older, and town homes and duplexes are not uncommon. Many of these families are two-income married couples approaching retirement age; they are comfortable in their jobs and their homes, budget wisely, and do not plan on retiring anytime soon or moving. Neighborhoods are well established, as are the amenities and programs that supported their now independent children through school and college. The appeal of these kid-friendly neighborhoods is now attracting a new generation of young couples.
Consumer Preferences:
Cost and practicality come first when purchasing a vehicle; Parks and Rec residents are more likely to buy SUVs or trucks over compact or subcompact vehicles. Budget-conscious consumers stock up on staples at warehouse clubs. Pass time at home watching documentaries on Animal Planet, Discovery, or History channels. For an outing, they choose to dine out at family-style restaurants and attend movies. Between trips to the casinos, they gamble on lottery tickets and practice their blackjack and poker skills online. Convenience is important in the kitchen; they regularly use frozen or packaged main course meals. Ground coffee is preferred over coffee beans. Residents here take advantage of local parks and recreational activities. Their exercise routine is a balance of home-based exercise; a session at their local community gym; or a quick jog, swim, or run.
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C: BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY SURVEY The Saco Business Development Strategy Survey was open from August to September 2020. In total, 80 people initiated the survey with 49 respondents answering every question. The results of the survey are as follows:
Quality of Life in Saco The majority of respondents like living in Saco with 51% of respondents indicating they “Like being here a lot” and 16% additional indicating “Saco is the best- wouldn’t live anywhere else”. Respondents noted the following reasons for liking Saco: proximity to ocean/beach, small-town feel, school system, history, safety, great food, outdoor activities, great location (close to Portland, Boston, etc), and friendly people. What’s your overall impression of Saco as a place to live, work, and play?
Respondents noted the following reasons that they disliked about Saco: lack of parking, no new businesses, high taxes, traffic, lack of downtown green space, anti-business attitude, poor code enforcement, and minimal signage.
Businesses in Saco Respondents stated they would like to see the following new businesses in Saco:
Coffee shops Upscaling clothing Restaurant Breweries/Distilleries Organic food co-ops, trade joes, etc Manufacturing and high tech Hardware store Favorite stores in Saco include:
Quiero Café Renys Maine Bike Woods
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
CIA Saco Scoop Post Office Shaws Gorham Bike & Ski Golden Rooster Respondents are most likely to visit stores around dinner time (5:00 PM to 7:00 PM). Several respondents noted their desire to get breakfast foods and coffee before starting their day. What are the typical weekday hours for you to shop or eat out in Saco?
Economic Development in Saco When asked “What would encourage you to spend more time and money in downtown Saco?”, respondents answered:
Ability to find parking Increased variety of restaurants Better business hours Lower taxes Landscape and green spaces Better looking Main Street/ clean up downtown Community coffee shop The following developments ranked as the top voted for each location:
Downtown near Saco River Reservoir – Retail and Mixed-Use Downtown along Main Street – Retail and Mixed-Use Near Biddeford-Saco Country Club – Mixed-Use and No Development Industrial Park Road – Manufacturing and Office
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME
Portland Road – Mixed Use and Manufacturing Route 112 Corridor – No Development and Mixed-Use Ferry Beach/Camp Ellis – No Development and Retail
Approximately a quarter (24%) of respondents think Saco could better support economic development. How well do you think Saco is supporting economic development today?
Respondents noted the following ways to better support business and economic investments:
Clear communication Reasonable rents for businesses Downtown beautification with flowers and signage Assist prospective businesses with permits Divert traffic away from downtown Parking Add restaurants downtown Lower taxes Look to Biddeford for attracting young businesses
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D. ABOUT CAMOIN 310
Camoin 310 has provided economic development consulting services to municipalities, economic development agencies, and private enterprises since 1999. Through the services offered, Camoin 310 has had the opportunity to serve EDOs and local and state governments from Maine to California; corporations and organizations that include Lowes Home Improvement, FedEx, Amazon, Volvo (Nova Bus) and the New York Islanders; as well as private developers proposing projects in excess of $6 billion. Our reputation for detailed, place-specific, and accurate analysis has led to projects in 40 states and garnered attention from national media outlets including Marketplace (NPR), Forbes magazine, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Additionally, our marketing strategies have helped our clients gain both national and local media coverage for their projects in order to build public support and leverage additional funding. We are based in Saratoga Springs, NY, with regional offices in Portland, ME; Boston, MA; Richmond, VA and Brattleboro, VT. To learn more about our experience and projects in all of our service lines, please visit our website at www.camoinassociates.com. You can also find us on Twitter @camoinassociate and on Facebook.
THE PROJECT TEAM
Jim Damicis Project Principal
Christa O. Franzi Project Manager
Bethany Meys Analyst
Frank O’Hara Strategy Advisor
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Leading action to grow your economy
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