Economic Development Market Analysis
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS City of Saco, ME DEC EMBER 2020 PREPARED BY: 120 West Avenue, Suite 303 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 518.899.2608 www.camoinassociates.com ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................ 1 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS .................................................................................. 4 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC PROFILE ............................................ 19 RETAIL SNAPSHOT ................................................................................................ 25 RESIDENTIAL SNAPSHOT...................................................................................... 34 OFFICE SNAPSHOT ............................................................................................... 41 INDUSTRIAL SNAPSHOT ....................................................................................... 44 COMPETITIVENESS ASSESSMENT ........................................................................ 46 WHAT WE HEARD ................................................................................................. 51 ACTION PLAN........................................................................................................ 54 APPENDICES .......................................................................................................... 57 i ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY The City of Saco has invested in an Economic Development Market Analysis to deepen its understanding of the local and regional economic and real estate market environment to inform economic development policies and strategies that are focused on what actions the City can take. Camoin 310 and our partner Frank O’Hara worked in conjunction with the City of Saco staff in a collaborative process to gain insight into Saco’s existing challenges and competitive advantages. The following sections comprise the market analysis: Economic Base Analysis | The base analysis is an in-depth examination of industry trends by employment, wages, concentration, and gross regional product to create a baseline of information. This analysis homed in on the sectors that pose the greatest strength for the City of Saco. Demographic and Socioeconomic Profile | The profile examined historic and projected trends for population, households, age, incomes, and other demographic factors that help to inform the market analysis. Real Estate Snapshot | The City of Saco’s diversity and availability of options within the retail, residential, office, and industrial markets were examined in the retail snapshot. This snapshot outlined market supply and demand. Competitive Assessment | To understand Saco’s role and standing in the regional economy, we compared municipal economic indicators for Saco to several other communities in the region: Biddeford, Westbrook, Gorham, Scarborough, Portland, South Portland, and Falmouth. Business Development Strategy Survey | A public survey was employed to solicit feedback from the community on perceptions of Saco’s quality of life, business offerings, and economic development direction. (See Appendix C) Stakeholder Interviews | As part of the Economic Development Market Analysis, the City of Saco staff and Camoin 310 conducted interviews with key stakeholders including business leaders, developers, investors, etc. The stakeholder interviews provide valuable information on public perceptions, specific challenges and opportunities, and other detailed information that informs the data analysis. Challenges and Opportunities | The aforementioned components culminated in the creation of the challenges and opportunities section of the report, which outlines the major themes and serves as the foundation for the Action Plan. Please note that data projections outlined below do not factor in the economic impact of COVID-19. While some projections are included, the focus of the analysis is on historic and current trends that shape market opportunities for the City of Saco. 1 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME KEY TAKEAWAYS & RECOMMENDATIONS Important takeaways from the analysis of the economy and real estate market in the City of Saco include: INCREASE RESILIENCY THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION Saco has strong levels of incomes, education, and age demographics; however, it is exporting professional and technical jobs and importing retail and service jobs. This matters because most people engaging with Saco’s economy are only doing so through one channel – they are either living here, OR working here, few do both. This can be considered a threat because an economy based on a single, highly volatile, sector (i.e. retail), is less resilient than a diverse economy, which can adapt more capably to market trends. ROLE OF CITY: COMMUNICATOR & CONNECTOR The City of Saco's strength in supporting real estate development is acting as the communicator and connector. The City should avoid, when possible, property acquisition for economic development - the City is not a developer. This is because it can be risky, and therefore better handled by the market. The City's primary role is to communicate about properties, assets and opportunities, and connecting businesses and developers with those properties and sites. FOCUS ATTRACTION EFFORTS ON INDUSTRY SECTORS WITH LOCAL AND REGIONAL STRENGTH Industry sectors with strength and opportunity for success in Saco include Health Care/Medical Services, Manufacturing, and Professional & Technical Services. Light Industrial, Manufacturing, & Logistics | This sector has a strong tradition in the region and state with historical growth. It includes a blend of small and large businesses in food production, aerospace, medical and life sciences related manufacturing, and textiles. Growth opportunity are present in the cross section of logistics and manufacturing. Pre-COVID, demand was for small flex spaces under 10,000 SF, with loading docks, which is not available in the market and price-prohibitive to build. During COVID and post- COVID, this market gap is likely to increase, with increased demand for warehouse and logistics. Professional & Technical Services | This sector is small in size but has historic and projected growth with higher than average wages in emerging industries. It includes business services such as engineering, information technology, research and development, and media and business services. Pre-COVID, there were slight increases in office space demand and supply; however, post-COVID there is great uncertainty with likely greater supply than demand and a market shift to low-density office space options. Health Care/Medical Services | This is a large and growing sector that is projected to advance, both locally and regionally. The challenge is increasing opportunities for mid-higher earning occupations. Saco is located between two major medical areas: the hospital in Biddeford and the healthcare network in Portland. The opportunity for Saco is outpatient specialty services and healthcare related offices. Medical office space is strong and growing locally and regionally today. Industry projections support increased demand. Work to attract health service providers like Biddeford-Saco Dental Associates that offer attractive career opportunities and jobs in the healthcare field, as well as investment in new office locations that create demand and synergies located within commercial districts. 2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CITY OF SACO, ME CONTINUE TO FILL EXISTING BUSINESS PARKS WITHOUT EXPANDING One of the critical questions driving this study was “Should we expand the business parks and work to attract modern amenities in the parks?” What we found through our research and analysis is that businesses who are in Saco’s business parks today are happy with their location even though the parks themselves lack many of the amenities that more modern park do. Employers and employees in the parks feel well served by the diverse amenities and retail offerings available in Saco. Regarding the question of expansion of the parks, the market analysis found that the supply of industrial space in the region continues to be limited, and the demand for that type of space is moderate. There are growth opportunities in the cross section of logistics and manufacturing; however, this demand is not significant enough to justify an expansion of Saco’s business parks considering the availability of privately-owned sites on the market currently. Therefore, our recommendation is to focus on attracting businesses within the opportunity sectors to existing park properties. Do not expand business parks or dedicate resources to attracting amenities to the parks. CONNECT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND LAND USE PLANNING How the City handles land use and zoning, including addressing parking challenges and traffic congestion, will go a long way to connecting businesses and employees to the amenities that they desire. While the expansion of a general business park – paid for by the City – is not justified based on the limited market demand; we recommend focusing on signature projects that include: Significant mixed-use development that integrates housing and commercial uses Riverfront projects All of this should be done with the City continuing to lead planning and zoning, as well as communicating to the private sector how the City’s vision and goals align with