The Rise and Fall of Thailand’s Export-Oriented Industries* Bhanupong Nidhiprabha Faculty of Economics Thammasat University 2 Prachan Road, Bangkok 10200 Thailand
[email protected] Abstract In the past three decades, with the exception of the Asian financial crisis in 1997–98, the Thai economy was propelled by the rapid growth of manufactured exports. There were 18 years of a double-digit export growth, averaging 20.5 percent per year.In 2009, Thailand’s exports collapsed after the 2008–09 global financial crisis, but rebounded sharply in the following year.Thailand’s exports growth significantly slowed down in 2011 and 2012. From 2013 to 2016, Thailand’s exports experienced negative growth. The global recession and China’s slowdown contributed to the dismal export performance. There was also a supply factor responsible for the negative growth, however.The dwindling level of foreign direct investment (FDI), caused by Thailand’s political turmoil and pessimistic business sentiment, has diminished export capability and competitiveness. The fall of Thailand’s export-oriented industries can be attributed to the country’s inability to attract FDI inflows. Some industries that are able to secure continuous flows of FDI remain competitive, whereas others that cannot will progressively retreat from the world market. 1. Introduction Thailand is an example of an export-driven economy. The country enjoyed double-digit growth of exports on the average of 23 percent per year from 1986 to 1995. The sharp re- bound of the Thai economy after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis in 1997 can be attributed to the strong export growth in 1999 and 2000.