atmosphere Article Generating Projections for the Caribbean at 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 ◦C from a High-Resolution Ensemble Jayaka D. Campbell 1,* , Michael A. Taylor 1, Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot 2, Tannecia S. Stephenson 1, Abel Centella-Artola 2 , Leonardo A. Clarke 1 and Kimberly A. Stephenson 3 1 Climate Studies Group Mona (CSGM), Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Kingston 07, Jamaica;
[email protected] (M.A.T.);
[email protected] (T.S.S.);
[email protected] (L.A.C.) 2 Instituto de Meteorología, Loma de Casa Blanca, Regla, La Habana 11700, Cuba;
[email protected] (A.B.-M.);
[email protected] (A.C.-A.) 3 Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, Kingston 07, Jamaica;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract: Six members of the Hadley Centre’s Perturbed Physics Ensemble for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). Climate scenarios at long- term temperature goals (LTTGs) of 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 ◦C above pre-industrial warming levels are generated for the Caribbean and six sub-regions for annual and seasonal timescales. Under a high Citation: Campbell, J.D.; Taylor, emissions scenario, the LTTGs are attained in the mid-2020s, end of the 2030s, and the early 2050s, M.A.; Bezanilla-Morlot, A.; respectively. At 1.5 ◦C, the region is slightly cooler than the globe, land areas warmer than ocean, and Stephenson, T.S.; Centella-Artola, A.; for the later months, the north is warmer than the south.