© Colmar Brunton
New Zealand’s ‘most respected’ market research company
ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll
Oct 4 th - 9th , 2008
PREPARED FOR ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll
ATTENTION Television New Zealand
ISSUE DATE 12/10/08
CONTACT[S] (09) 919 9200
Colmar Brunton
ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll
Poll Method Summary
RELEASED : Sunday 12 th October, 2008
POLL CONDUCTED : Evenings of Oct 4 th – 9 th inclusive
SAMPLE SIZE : n = 1,008 Eligible Voters
SAMPLE SELECTION : Random nationwide selection using a type of stratified sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of people in urban and rural areas.
SAMPLE ERROR : Based on a total sample of 1000 Eligible Voters, the maximum sampling error estimated is plus or minus 3.1%, expressed at the 95% confidence level.
METHOD : Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).
WEIGHTING : The data has been weighted to Department of Statistics Population Estimates to ensure it is representative of the population in terms of age, gender, household size and ethnic origin.
REPORTED FIGURES : Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 5% which are reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1% which are reported to 1 decimal place.
METHODOLOGY The party vote question has been asked unprompted as at February 1997.
NOTE: The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the outcome of an election. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be misleading to report otherwise. Publication or reproduction of the results of this poll must be acknowledged as the “ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll”.
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Summary of Poll Results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National 51% Down 1% from 27 th September – 2 nd October, 2008
Labour 33% Steady
Green Party 8% Up 1%
The Maori Party 3% Steady
NZ First 3% Up 1%
ACT NZ 2% Steady
PARTY SUPPORT – ELECTORATE VOTE
National 54% Up 2% from 27 th September – 2 nd October, 2008
Labour 34% Down 1%
Green Party 4% Down 1%
NZ First 2% Up 1%
The Maori Party 3% Steady
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 1% Up 1% Coalition
ACT NZ 1% Down 1%
UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote 11% Up 3% from 27 th September – 2 nd October, 2008
Electorate Vote 17% Up 5%
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Summary of Poll Results
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
Key 39% Down 2% from 27 th September – 2 nd October, 2008
Clark 31% Steady
Peters 2% Down 1%
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Optimism 38% Down 3% from 27 th September – 2 nd October, 2008
Pessimism 42% Up 4%
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Key Political Events: 13 th September - 9 th October 2008
• Health Minister, David Cunliffe, acknowledges that health sector inflation may result in increased GP fees • Helen Clark announces election date – political parties kick-off campaigning • John Key announces National party’s focus on 3 key policy areas: economy, law and order and education • Commerce Commission Deputy Chairman, Donald Curtin, is to be investigated over disclosure issues relating to finance and investment companies • Corrections Minister, Phil Goff, puts legal ban on gangs under consideration • Chinese based Sanlu Group, in which Fonterra has a 43% share, involved in melamine scandal • Phil Goff to take Winston Peters’ place when Commonwealth Foreign Minister’s meet to discuss developments in Fiji • “Google bomb” on John Key by former Young Labour activistm with Mr Key’s website first to appear in Google search for “clueless” • National continue to consider tax cuts of $50 a week, despite global financial turmoil • Wall Street Investment Banks go bust. Markets plummet to lowest levels seen since Sept 22, 2002. US Federal Reserve throws US $85 billion lifeline • National Party health spokesman, Tony Ryall, writes letter to Auckland District Health Board warning them about releasing too much good news in the pre-election period • Black Power gang makes Treaty of Waitangi claim • Labour seek legal advice on spending with trade union advertising • Funeral for slain policeman, Don Wilkinson, in Kumeu • Former paraolympian, Tony Christensen, announces bid for the Bay of Plenty electorate, as a member of The Kiwi Party • National release health policy in parts – including a $10,000 a year write off for doctor’s student loans when working in hard-to-staff areas • Government officials are helping Fonterra keep its’ directors in China safe • Privileges Commission finds Winston Peters, knowingly filed a false return to Parliament when he failed to declare a $100,000 from Owen Glenn • US decide to join P4 trade agreement with New Zealand, Singapore, Chile and Brunei • Labour accuses John Key of lying over his ownership of Tranz Rail shares, with Key subsequently confessing he should have told public about the extent of his shareholding in the Company • NZ First makes gangs a post-poll priority • Maori Party accuses Labour and NZ First of preventing the course of justice and pressuring Maori Party over Winston Peters report • Consumer confidence rebounded sharply (Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence Q3)
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• Austin Hemmings stabbed to death in downtown Auckland • 9 Labour MPs give farewell speeches to parliament • Final parliamentary debate before election held on 26 th September • John Key releases Treaty Negotiations, Maori Affairs and Electoral Roll policy • National announce plans to dump Maori seats by 2014 • NZ First deputy leader sparks ethnic debate: migrants told to integrate or stay away • ACT candidate Kenneth Wang told to remove Billboard campaign in Botany, by National candidate, Pansy Wong • Falling world stock markets take toll on New Zealand Superannuation fund with $881m loss • Biofuel law into force on 1 st October • KiwiSaver funds mark one year anniversary • Government tax cuts come into affect on 1 st October • Government pledges to investigate electricity price hikes • Clark, Key and TV3 criticised for blackballing smaller parties to a two-leader format for televised Leaders debate • National pledge to tackle New Zealand’s doctor shortage by increasing number of medical student places by 200 a year • Cullen indicates Auckland’s rail electrification project a near certainty • National crime statistics released indicating an increase of 11.1% in violent offences recorded compared to last year • Government launch free off-peak travel for Super Gold card holders • State Services Commission annual report shows Peter Hughes, head of the Social Development Ministry, paid between $530,000 and $539,000 in last year • Winston Peters admits to $40,000 donation from Spencer Trust after it was uncovered by Serious Fraud Office • National announces parole policy. No parole for repeat violent offenders • 2 days before cut-off date for electoral office, 220,000 eligible voters were still to enrol • Maori Party held annual conference and election campaign launch • Green Party launch their campaign with the backing of NZ celebrity, Robyn Malcolm • Treasury’s Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update shows budget deficits are predicted for next ten years as economic forecasts look to be worse than predicted • Government rejects holding another inquiry into power prices • National question Labour election spending as Labour send out information booklets under each MP – which Chief Electoral Office do not deem advertising • International fallout from US credit crisis continues • Government approves a regional fuel tax to pay for Auckland’s rail electrification project • Television broadcasting for election begins • John Key says he will support Government moves to protect bank deposits if it becomes necessary
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• Electoral Commission releases result from study which shows that one-third of voters still do not know that the party vote is the most important in determining the number of parliamentary seats • National announce tax cut policy: Cuts are to be funded by taking some money away from KiwiSaver and business tax credits for research and development
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Detailed Poll Results
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”
NOTE : Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party support analysis.
Party Support
“Under MMP you get two votes.
One is for a political party and is called a party vote . The other is for your local M.P. and is called an electorate vote.”
Party Vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party . Which political party would you vote for?”
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Party Vote
IF DON’T KNOW –
“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”
9-14 6-11 27 Sept – 4 – 9 August September 2 October October 2008 2008 2008 2008
Don’t Know 6% 7% 6% 8%
Refused 3% 4% 2% 3%
TOTAL 10%* 11% 8% 11% Base: n=1,008 Eligible New Zealander Voters, 4-9 October, 2008 *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
9-14 6-11 27 Sept – 4 – 9 August September 2 October October 2008 2008 2008 2008
National 51% 53% 52% 51%
Labour 37% 35% 33% 33%
Green Party 3.5% 5% 7% 8%
The Maori Party 3.1% 1.8% 2.5% 2.8%
NZ First 2.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6%
ACT NZ 0.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6%
New Zealand Pacific Party - - - 0.4%
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 0.1% - 0.3% 0.3%
Christian Heritage 0.2% 0.5% - 0.1%
Kiwi Party 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
United Future NZ 0.7% - 0.7% 0.1%
Libertarianz 0.2% - - 0.1%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party - 0.2% 0.3% -
The One New Zealand Party - 0.1% - -
Alliance - 0.1% - -
Democrats for Social Credit - 0.1% - -
Family Party 0.3% - 0.5% -
Other 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
TOTAL 100% 100% 101%* 100% Base: n=860 Probed Party Supporters, 4-9 October, 2008 *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
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National Labour Green United FutureNZ ACT NZ First Maori Party 4 Oct – 9 Oct 9 – Oct 4
27 Sept - 2 Oct 2 - Sept 27
u y Jul
April April
December
August
April
October
u y Jul
February 06 February
Sept 12-14 Sept
August 22-25 August
u y Jul
April
December
September
ueJune March
Party Vote
November
August
a May
February 03 February
October
Late July Late ueJune
ONE NEWS/COLMAR BRUNTON POLL
March
November
August
a May February 01 February 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 %
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Electorate Vote
“Now thinking about your other vote, the Electorate Vote for your Local M.P . When you choose your local M.P., which party, if any, is this candidate likely to come from?”
IF DON’T KNOW “Which party, if any, are they most likely to come from?”
9-14 6-11 27 Sept – 2 4 – 9 August September October October 2008 2008 2008 2008
Don’t Know 15% 14% 10% 15%
Refused 2% 2% 2% 2%
TOTAL 17% 16% 12% 17% Base: n=1,008 Eligible New Zealander Voters, 4–9 Oct, 2008
9-14 6-11 27 Sept – 2 4 – 9 August September October October 2008 2008 2008 2008
National 50% 51% 52% 54%
Labour 40% 34% 35% 34%
Green Party 3.1% 4.8% 5.0% 4.1%
The Maori Party 2.3% 4.2% 3.3% 2.9%
NZ First 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 1.6%
ACT NZ 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4%
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2%
New Zealand Pacific Party - 0.1% - 0.5%
Independent - 0.1% - 0.4%
United Future NZ 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Kiwi Party 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Democrats for Social Credit - - - 0.1%
Christian Heritage - 0.2% 0.1% -
Alliance - 0.1% - -
Family Party 0.2% - 0.4% -
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party - - - -
Other 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 101%* Base: n=821 Probed Party Supporters, 4-9 October, 2008 *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
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National Labour Green United FutureNZ ACT NZ First Maori Party
4 Oct – 9 Oct 9 – Oct 4
27 Sept - 2 Oct 2 - Sept 27
u y Jul
April
December
August
April
October
u y Jul
February 06 February
Sept 12-14 Sept
August 22-25 August
u y Jul
April
December
September
ueJune
March November
Electorate Vote
August
a May
February 03 February
October
Late July Late ueJune
ONE NEWS/COLMAR BRUNTON POLL
March
November
August
a May February 01 February 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 %
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Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current M.P.’s of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”
IF NONE –
“Is there anyone who is not a current M.P. who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
9-14 August 6-11 27 Sept – 2 4 – 9 2008 September October October 2008 2008 2008
John Key 36% 40% 41% 39%
Helen Clark 33% 31% 31% 31%
Winston Peters 3% 3% 3% 2%
Jeanette Fitzsimons 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8%
Bill English 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
Pita Sharples 0.2% 0.2% 1% 0.6%
Rodney Hide 0.5% 1% 0.7% 0.5%
Tariana Turia 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Phil Goff 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Michael Cullen 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Jim Anderton 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
John Banks 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Peter Dunne - - 0.2% 0.1%
Don Brash - 0.1% - -
John Tamihere - 0.1% - -
Nick Smith 0.1% - - -
Gerry Brownlee 0.1% - - -
Nandor Tanczos - - 0.4% -
Other 3% 3% 3% 4%
Don’t Know 18% 14% 13% 15%
None 4% 3% 5% 4%
Refused 1% 1% 1% 2%
TOTAL 101%* 99%* 102%* 101%* Base: n=1,008 Eligible New Zealander Voters, 4-9 October, 2008 *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
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4 Oct – 9 Oct 9 – Oct 4
27 Sept - 2 Oct 2 - Sept 27
Jul-08
Apr-08
Dec-07
Aug-07
Apr-07 JohnKey
Oct-06
Jul-06
Feb-06
Sept 12-14 Sept
Late Aug-05 Late
Jul-05
Apr-05
Dec-04 Sep-04
HelenClark
Jun-04
Mar-04
Nov-03
Aug-03
May-03 Feb-03
Preferred Prime Minister
Oct-02
Late Jul-02 Late Jun-02
ONE NEWS/COLMAR BRUNTON POLL Mar-02
Winston Peters Winston
Nov-01
Aug-01
May-01 Feb-01 0 % 60 50 40 30 20 10
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Economic Outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a worse state?”
9-14 6-11 27 Sept – 4 – 9 August September 2 October October 2008 2008 2008 2008
Better 44% 50% 41% 38%
Same 18% 23% 22% 20%
Worse 38% 27% 38% 42%
TOTAL 100% 100% 101%* 100% Base: n=1,008 Eligible New Zealander Voters, 4-9 October, 2008 *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding.
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Issues Affecting Voting
“I am going to name some issues now that political leaders have mentioned as significant ones during the campaign and ask you to rate the extent to which they will influence your vote. When I read out an issue please tell me whether this issue is likely to influence who you vote for ‘a lot’, ‘a little bit’ or ‘not at all’. So, starting with…[INSERT FIRST ISSUE], is this likely to influence who you vote for ‘a lot’, ‘a little bit’ or ‘not at all’?
And what about …[INSERT NEXT ISSUE], is this likely to influence who you vote for ‘a lot’, ‘a little bit’ or ‘not at all’?”
A lot A little bit Not at all Don’t know Total
Law and order 67% 25% 8% 0% 100%
Health care 65% 28% 7% 0% 100%
Trust in the Party 64% 26% 9% 1% 100%
Education 61% 31% 8% 0% 100%
Experienced leadership 47% 39% 14% 0% 100%
Time for a change 43% 28% 28% 1% 100%
Tax cuts 37% 42% 21% 1% 101%*
Base: n=949 Likely Voters, 4-9 October, 2008. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
Law and Order More New Zealanders (67%) say this issue will affect their voting behaviour than any other issue we asked about, although only marginally more than those saying the same for Health Care and Trust in the Party.
Those more likely to say Law and Order will influence their voting a lot are:
• Those over 55 years old (72%) • Lower income households – those earning less than $30,000 p.a. (74%) • Likely National voters (76%)
Health Care A similar proportion to those saying Law and Order is highly influential, are saying this issue will be highly influential (65%) in who they vote for.
Those more likely to say this issue will influence their vote a lot are:
• Those over 55 years old (76%) • Females (71%) • Lower income households – those earning less than $30,000 p.a. (78%)
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Trust in the Party Two-thirds of likely voters say this is an issue that will influence who they vote for a lot.
There are little differences between those who are finding this issue influential on their voting behaviour and the rest of the electorate.
Education 61% of likely voters say Education will influence who they vote for a lot.
Those more likely to say this issue will influence their vote a lot are:
• Lower income households – those earning less than $30,000 p.a. (70%) • Households with children (64%)
Time for a Change Four in ten say a Time for a Change will influence their voting a lot.
There is very little difference between those saying it will influence their voting a lot and the rest of the population. The only significant difference is that likely National voters are more likely to say that this will influence their voting a lot (66%).
Experienced Leadership About half of all likely voters say this issue will influence their voting a lot.
Those more likely to say this are:
• Lower income households (60%) • Likely Labour voters (72%)
Tax Cuts Of the issues we asked about, Tax Cuts had the smallest proportion of likely voters (37%) saying that it was an issue which would influence a lot who they will vote for.
Those more likely to say it will influence a lot who they vote for are:
• Those 18-34 years old (51%) • National voters (41%)
Likely voters’ level of household income has no significant impact on this.
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Parliamentary Seat Entitlement
The following have been calculated using the St Laguë method.
The next table assumes that each of United Future New Zealand, ACT and Progressive Coalition win one electorate seat and the Maori Party wins 4 electorate seats
* Indicates overhang seats
4-9 October 2008 National 63
Labour 41
Green Party 10
Maori Party 4
United Future NZ 1*
ACT 2
Progressive Party 1*
NZ First 0
TOTAL 122
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Method Used To Calculate Parliamentary Seat Entitlement
The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for each party into the number of seats they get in parliament.
It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral Commission.
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