Wyndham Growth Area: Towards Melbourne 2030
Final Report Wyndham Committee for Smart Growth
Part A – Main Findings and Recommendations Part B – Context and Guidelines
December 2004
Confidential
Wyndham Growth Area Final Report Wyndham Committee for Smart Growth December 2004
ISBN 1 74152 273 0
Confidential
What this report contains
This report consists of two parts:
Part A – Main findings and recommendations
The main findings and recommendations of the Wyndham Committee for Smart Growth (“The Committee”) on the future development of the designated Wyndham Growth Area, to the end of 2030 (the “planning period”).
Part B – Context and guidelines
An accompanying report setting out guidelines with more detailed proposals for the development of the new growth area plan.
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Disclaimer The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the position of any specific Government department or agency or organisation, or any of their employees or members who participated on the Committee.
It is recognised that the implementation of the recommendations in this report may need to be preceded by further detailed analysis and will be subject to funding availability and strategic planning priorities within State and local governments.
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The Wyndham Committee for Smart Growth
The following people were members of the Committee at the time this report was finalised:
Tim Offor Chair Cr Henry Barlow City of Wyndham Ian Robins Chief Executive Officer, City of Wyndham Ian Bunn Community representative Patricia Goodwin Community representative Peter Vlitas Urban Development Institute of Australia Geoffrey Bills Housing Institute of Australia Dr Jenny Morris Department of Infrastructure Jill Earnshaw VicRoads Cathy Wilkinson Department of Sustainability and Environment Paul Jarman Department of Sustainability and Environment Glenne Drover Werribee Vision
Alternate members:
Cr Karen Roberts City of Wyndham Greg Aplin City of Wyndham Julian Hill Department of Sustainability and Environment David Kirkland Department of Sustainability and Environment Christopher McNeill Urban Development Institute of Australia Warwick Pattinson Department of Infrastructure
Other Committee members who served during the Committee’s deliberations:
John Forrester Community representative Fiona Nield Housing Institute of Australia Don Hogben VicRoads George Worotnicki VicRoads John Collins Department of Sustainability and Environment Michael Scrafton Department of Sustainability and Environment Rachel Murphy Werribee Vision Jo Beatty Werribee Vision
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Part A – Main findings and recommendations
Confidential
Contents Part A
1. Key findings ...... 12 1.1. Development constraints and related issues ...... 12 1.2. Opportunities for urban consolidation ...... 12 1.3. Potential for growth outside the existing UGB...... 16 1.4. Development activity and land supply...... 17 1.5. Staging of development ...... 17 1.6. Employment...... 18 1.7. Infrastructure funding...... 18 1.8. Transport infrastructure...... 18 2. Introduction ...... 20 2.1. Terms of Reference...... 20 2.2. Committee process...... 20 3. Future growth prospects...... 22 3.1. Household growth expectations...... 22 3.2. Opportunities to support growth ...... 23 3.3. Recommendations...... 23 4. Urban consolidation ...... 25 4.1. Housing and employment opportunities ...... 25 4.2. Werribee Corridor...... 25 4.3. Recommendations...... 26 5. Future land requirements...... 27 5.1. Residential supply and demand ...... 27 5.2. New urban land requirements ...... 27 5.3. Recommendations...... 28 6. Future growth directions ...... 29 6.1. Constraints to development...... 29 6.2. West and/or North...... 32 6.3. Regional high capacity public transport ...... 34 6.4. Deferred long-term new urban areas...... 34 6.5. Interface with green wedge...... 35 6.6. Recommendations...... 35 7. Activity centres ...... 38 7.1. Commercial potential...... 38 7.2. Werribee Town Centre...... 38 7.3. Laverton airbase...... 38 7.4. Werribee Plaza...... 40 7.5. Rose Grange and Manor Lakes...... 40 7.6. Laverton North Business Centre...... 41 7.7. Recommendations...... 41 8. Employment...... 43 8.1. Job requirements ...... 43 8.2. Laverton North industrial area...... 43 8.3. The new economy...... 45 8.4. Recommendations...... 45 9. Environment and the green network...... 47 9.1. Protecting and enhancing assets...... 47
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9.2. Risks to development...... 48 9.3. Open space network...... 50 9.4. Natural resources...... 50 9.5. Stormwater treatment...... 50 9.6. Recommendations...... 51 10. Movement...... 52 10.1. Regional accessibility...... 52 10.2. Internal movement ...... 52 10.3. Future high capacity public transport and funding ...... 56 10.4. Freight...... 58 10.5. Recommendations...... 59 11. Landscape...... 60 11.1. Landscape character and features ...... 60 11.2. Development with respect to landscape...... 60 11.3. Recommendations...... 61 12. Housing & Community Services...... 62 12.1. Changing needs...... 62 Housing ...... 62 Service provision...... 62 12.2. Service requirements...... 63 12.3. Recommendations...... 64 13. Water utility services...... 65 13.1. Water...... 65 13.2. Sewerage...... 65 13.3. Drainage...... 65 13.4. Recommendations...... 67 14. Special areas...... 68 14.1. Point Cook – land affected by the flight paths...... 68 14.2. Recommendations...... 68 14.3. Point Cook – interface south of growth boundary...... 68 14.4. Recommendations...... 68 15. Metropolitan Issues ...... 70 15.1. Infrastructure and Service Delivery Plan...... 70 15.2. Implementation Monitoring and Coordination ...... 70 15.3. Recommendations...... 71
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Figures
Figure 1: Wyndham study area...... 13 Figure 2: Physical constraints ...... 14 Figure 3: Growth and urban consolidation pockets ...... 15 Figure 4: Directions for growth ...... 31 Figure 5: Long-term development concept...... 37 Figure 6: Activity centre network...... 39 Figure 7: Major employment areas...... 44 Figure 8: Blue-Green network ...... 49 Figure 9: Transport network ...... 53 Figure 10: Interim Regional Public Transport Network...... 57 Figure 11: Water utility service infrastructure...... 66 Figure 12: Point Cook flight path area concept plan ...... 69
Tables
Table 1: Population and household forecast - VIF 2004 ...... 22 Table 2: Constraints on development ...... 29 Table 3: Developable land - identified growth pockets...... 32 Table 4: Strategic movement issues...... 54
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1. Key findings
The Wyndham Committee for Smart Growth (the ‘Committee’) has examined the growth and development issues facing the Wyndham growth area in accordance with the Terms of Reference from the Minister for Planning.
The report focuses on the Wyndham growth area (see Figure 1: Wyndham study area) and does not consider the merits of growth in Wyndham compared with any other designated growth area.
The Committee has noted the investigations that are underway in the Melton – Caroline Springs growth area and considers that the form and extent of growth to be provided for in that growth area may have a material impact on the growth of Wyndham.
The Committee recognises that projects and actions recommended in this report will need to be considered in conjunction with other growth area and metropolitan priorities and planning. Accordingly funding of infrastructure and other needs will be determined in a metropolitan wide and State-wide context. 1.1. Development constraints and related issues
The Committee has determined that there are significant physical, constraints to development to the south and west of the growth area that will preclude major urban development. Areas to the south are heavily constrained by environmental issues, the high value agricultural areas at Werribee South and movement limitations while areas in the west are constrained by flooding, environmental issues and extractive and landfill resources.
The best long term prospect for growth which is free of environmental constraints is towards the north of the growth area. However, the provision of public transport to these areas is a major issue.
Areas to the east are suitable for further industrial growth but the interface issues between residential communities and growing industrial areas will need careful management. 1.2. Opportunities for urban consolidation
The Committee has determined that significant development opportunities exist within the current Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) that could play a major role in the area’s future development for both residential and employment purposes. Although some of these identified opportunities may not materialise, if achieved, they would contribute to a more compact and sustainable urban form around the existing rail corridor and proposed premium bus routes. Appendix 1 - Wyndham Urban Consolidation Anticipated Dwelling Yields outlines those sites with development opportunities for consolidation.
This document must not be circulated Page 12 Figure 1: TheThe StudyStudy AreaArea
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Figure 2: Physical Constraints Map Ref. 1120, 21 December 2004 Urban Growth Boundary Growth Pockets Outside UGB RAMSAR Prime Agricultural Land Main Roads Urban Consolidation Pockets High Estimated Extractive Industry Site and Buffer Biodiversity Values (( Rail Line and Station Flood Plains Aircraft Noise Buffer Medium Estimated Rivers, Creeks & Lakes Wetlands (1994 data) Biodiversity Values Industrial A4 332 ha
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Figure 3: Growth and Urban Consolidation Pockets Map Ref. 1364, 21 December 2004 Urban Growth Boundary Growth Pockets Outside UGB Main Roads Urban Consolidation Pockets
(( Existing Rail Line and Stations
Rivers, Creeks & Lakes Confidential Key findings and recommendations
Within the UGB, the main growth management recommendations include:
action to explore the potential of consolidation sites ensuring that where consolidation can create more viable neighbourhoods, this is achieved reviewing employment areas on release of the Western Regional Employment and Industrial Development study early in 2005 translation of the Committee’s findings into formal local planning policies. 1.3. Potential for growth outside the existing UGB
The Committee has also determined that the predominant areas for future urban expansion exist in ‘growth pockets’ outside the UGB to the immediate west (Wyndham Vale) and north (Truganina-Tarneit East). Areas to the south are constrained while areas to the east will be infilled with mainly industrial development. There are some strategic benefits from developing in the west including a larger catchment for the Werribee Principal Activity Centre and provision of improved local retail and social services and local employment opportunities for Werribee West and Wyndham Vale. However, the land area there is limited and the impact on the natural environment needs careful attention. The development pockets identified for the west would mark the ultimate boundary of Wyndham’s western development.
There are some cost savings and other potential benefits (including potentially strong sustainability outcomes) with the north growth pockets. More importantly they provide the only long-term opportunity to provide developable land for the growth area. Preliminary modelling by the Wyndham Council has indicated higher capital and recurrent costs for urban development and infrastructure provision to the west compared to the north, including for those areas already within the UGB.
Other potential growth pockets along the Princes Freeway corridor to Little River were considered. However, social and environmental issues and difficulties with provision of physical services limit their viability as sustainable communities. The flight paths for Avalon Airport overlap Little River township and preclude any significant urban development in that area as well, although a very limited amount might be allowed to help consolidate the township and improve the ability to supply local services to the existing population.
Development opportunities in Point Cook South are extremely limited and heavily constrained by the sensitivity of the natural environment and Point Cook Airfield flight paths. Only very limited development is proposed for pocket I2, and then only in association with creation of a buffer between Point Cook and the agricultural and environmentally significant areas to the south. However, the Committee has determined that some additional land could be brought within the UGB in the area north of the airfield to generally align with the projected 13 ANEF contour (subject to assessment of environmental constraints), although future airfield operations issues need to be carefully addressed.
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1.4. Development activity and land supply
Based on the 2004 Urban Development Program, the Wyndham Growth Area has enough land within the existing Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to provide for the next 15 to 20 years of projected household and population growth at current densities of development on greenfield sites and at current (low) levels of urban consolidation. However, if Melbourne 2030 household distribution aspirations are achieved then the need for additional land will be further delayed. Alternatively, based on continuing upward trends in the Region’s and Wyndham’s shares of metropolitan growth, the period may be as short as 12 to 13 years (Wyndham Council assessment) or 10-12 years (development industry assessment).
Accordingly, the growth rate needs to be carefully monitored and the growth area plan reviewed regularly.
Within the planning period to 2031, it is likely that additional land will need to be brought within the UGB. The preferred growth pockets to the west (Areas E1, D1, D3, C1 and C2) would provide another 5 or so years of supply and those to the north (Areas A1, A2, A3 and A4) another 5-10 years of supply. In the longer term, there are some additional areas to the north-west (B1 and B2 - Tarneit) that could be considered for inclusion within the UGB, and need to be considered in infrastructure planning. 1.5. Staging of development
The staging of any releases beyond the UGB should initially address the cost of infrastructure, the viability of growth communities and any immediate strategic benefits. Three cases stand out:
A limited area north of Leakes Road, (pocket A1), subject to provision of a reservation (or road lanes) for a proposed high capacity public transport service. This would create a more viable Tarneit East community and activity centre, and create the opportunity to relocate the proposed Rose Grange activity centre to a location that is integrated with the Principal Public Transport Network A smaller pocket (E1) on Geelong Road, Werribee West would add to the community’s viability and help provide access to and support a potential new railway station. However, this is subject to an assessment of potential odour issues arising from proximity to the Western Treatment Plant, definition of costs, and commitment to road network upgrades and any other infrastructure to be funded by development contributions. Limited areas at Point Cook between the existing UGB and recommended buffers to the airport and a smaller area west of Point Cook Road.
Staging of later releases should be reviewed within 3 years, and founded on relevant issues at the time, including evaluation of relative sustainability between options,
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The Committee believes that a clear long-term land release strategy is essential, to ensure that planning by government and by the private sector is well-informed, including the nature of the urban form and structure of communities, the role for and protection of the green wedges, and the requirements for transport networks and other urban infrastructure. A concept for long-term development is included in the report. 1.6. Employment
A key issue in Wyndham is the shortfall in jobs for the resident population but more particularly the lack of diverse job opportunities. Laverton North provides a solid core of employment for an industrial workforce but the area is less successful in attracting the jobs of the service and ‘new economy’ (finance and business services, health, education, government, research and development) that currently supply only 9% of existing employment.
This has impacts on transport as available jobs in these sectors are generally located closer to the Melbourne CBD. 1.7. Infrastructure funding
The Committee notes that development contributions will be relied on to fund a wide range of urban infrastructure. To the extent that the development industry will be expected to contribute to major infrastructure, a clear long-term development concept is essential, to enable more consistent, equitable application, and ensure that costs can be effectively factored into land purchases.
The Committee is concerned that there is uncertainty on how infrastructure funding for major projects will be shared between the development industry, local Government and the State government. The Committee believes that this is an issue that should be resolved before committing to further land releases beyond the current UGB. 1.8. Transport infrastructure
Any new urban development in either the west or north will be heavily dependent on supply of significant and expensive transport infrastructure (road and rail). To deliver the required infrastructure will require clarity regarding responsibility, and recognition that the provision of infrastructure is a shared responsibility by the public and private sectors. The ability to encourage increased urban consolidation also depends on some significant improvements to transport infrastructure within the existing urban area.
There are a number of significant transport issues that need to be addressed over time to cater for the growth in urban development. These include but are not limited to:
an ‘Outer Ring Road’ (proposed in the Outer Western Suburbs Transport Study). It would provide essential links from Wyndham
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Vale, south to the Princes Freeway and north-east to Tarneit and major employment areas beyond upgrades to the existing mile road grid, headed by Palmers and Derrimut Roads [north-south] and Sayers and Leakes Roads [east- west], plus new and improved access to the region’s freeways investigation of a business case for a spur from the Werribee rail line into Wyndham Vale northern ‘high capacity public transport corridor’ servicing Truganina- Tarneit and linking with the Melton rail line to the north expansion of the premium ‘SmartBus’ system into the growth area on a number of routes as well as expansion of the local bus network modal interchange improvements to encourage increased use of public transport. new train stations on the Werribee rail line rail/road grade separations or major alternative works, to contribute towards addressing road capacity issues across the Werribee Line. Of particular concern is the Werribee Street level crossing, and the ability of the road network within that area to support road and public transport traffic arising from urban development in Wyndham Vale and Manor Lakes investigation of options to develop a standard gauge rail siding and/or intermodal terminal within the municipality The Committee recommends strongly that proposals be developed and assessed for provision of the required public transport and road infrastructure in the growth area, and that such plans and implementation arrangements, including funding, be agreed to by all levels of government within the next three to five years and before any extension to the UGB (excluding the pocket labelled ‘E1’). Monitoring the rate of development will be required to inform this process.
While the Committee is of the view that the provision of transport infrastructure is the key to future development, particularly to increase employment, it must be emphasised that other major infrastructure items for community development and environment protection are also required.
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2. Introduction 2.1. Terms of Reference
“The Committee for Smart Growth is responsible for reviewing and revising existing plans or developing new plans for the development of the designated growth area consistent with the Principles, Key Directions and Policies of Melbourne 2030.
The Committee will review, provide advice and recommend, as appropriate, to the Department of Sustainability & Environment and Wyndham City Council on:
the detailed technical investigations of development constraints and issues within the Growth Area carried out by the Technical Working Group an overall strategic framework plan (including an integrated transport strategy) for the Growth Area that accords with and implements Melbourne 2030, as the basis for a new or revised Ministerial Direction issues of development staging as proposed by the Technical Working Group and a ‘preferred development sequence’ the preparation of any associated development guidelines, policies or precinct plans that may be needed to ensure development achieves the agreed outcomes.” In subsequent guidance the Minister for Planning advised the Committee that it is not required to make recommendations in relation to the urban growth boundary (UGB). Any views of the Committee regarding the timing of release of particular parcels of land can be addressed through identification of a preferred development sequence. 2.2. Committee process
The Committee has met on 13 occasions. In its deliberations it has undertaken two public workshops to seek out the views of residents and others with an interest in the growth area.
Members have participated in an intensive four-day workshop (Inquiry by Design) managed by the Department of Sustainability and Environment including active participation from Wyndham City Council representatives and State government agencies.
In September 2004 the Chair forwarded an interim report to the Minister.
The Committee has also reviewed submissions related to the planning of the growth area that were received following the release of Melbourne 2030 in 2002. This has included providing an opportunity to submitters affected by the UGB (in December 2004) to add to their submission with a verbal presentation to the Chair and representatives of the Committee.
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In addition the Committee has received and Members have been able to consider a range of unsolicited correspondence and proposals by landowners, developers and others outlining issues that these persons believe the Committee should take into account.
The advice in this report is based upon available information drawn from expert consultants, community and industry representatives, and officers from Wyndham, Brimbank and Melton Councils, and State government.
The Committee has made substantial efforts to consider economic, social and environmental issues affecting the growth area and a preliminary analysis has been prepared (see Appendix 3).
The recommendations in this report have been formed by the Committee based on advice from a Technical Working Group, Department of Sustainability and Environment, and Wyndham Council officers.
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3. Future growth prospects 3.1. Household growth expectations
The western region of metropolitan Melbourne and the Wyndham Growth Area are providing increasing proportions of metropolitan Melbourne’s new housing stock (currently 24 and 10% respectively). The proportion in Wyndham may increase further by continuation of current trends or may decline and depending on whether or not the Melton-Caroline Springs Growth Area is capable of taking more growth Wyndham’s share may be further increased or moderated. The State government’s Victoria in Future (2004) projections assume that Wyndham’s share will ease, to average 8.8% in 2001-2031, while Council believes it will rise further, to average about 11% in the study period.
Without any policy intervention, Victoria in Future 2004 projects that the total number of households in Wyndham will increase from 29,047 households in 2001 to 83,950 households in 2031 (see Table 1). This represents an increase of almost 55,000 households over the thirty years from 2001 to 2031 (or about 48,000 from 2004). Council’s forecasts are about 14,000 households more. The total number of households in metropolitan Melbourne is projected to increase by 626,661 households over the thirty-year period.
Table 1: Population and household forecast - VIF 2004
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Population 87,141 118,230 142,707 162,936 181,521 196,551 208,208
Households 29,047 40,873 51,161 60,285 69,212 77,098 83,950
Exactly when this growth should eventuate is dependent on economic issues, living preferences and other factors. Continuation of recent rates of development suggests that these thresholds would be reached well within the planning period.
Wyndham’s share of Western Region growth may be moderated if the existing urban area of Melbourne succeeds in catering for higher housing densities as is intended by Melbourne 2030. The regional ‘aspirational’ distribution of new households in Melbourne 2030 would need to be met if the strategy is to succeed in reducing outward growth and increasing consolidation in established areas. If Melbourne 2030 aspirations are achieved, then the number of new households expected in Wyndham between 2004 and 2031 drops from the trend forecast of 48,000 to about 30,000.
However if these aspirations are not met and current growth rates in Wyndham are sustained then the current forecasts will need to be modified to indicate a more rapid growth rate and potentially earlier release of land outside the UGB.
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3.2. Opportunities to support growth
Land suitable for new urban development is not yet a constraint - enough land has been identified for urban development within the planning period and beyond (see ‘Future growth directions’ on page 27).
However, there are a number of key opportunities and challenges which need to be faced to support the extent of future development in the growth area, and the wider metropolitan urban system.
There are opportunities to improve the current restriction in capacity of the regional road and public transport system that provides access from the growth area to and from central Melbourne. This should be addressed as a short to medium term priority as the growth area will continue to depend on central Melbourne for a large proportion of jobs and services (see ‘Movement’ on page 52 ).
The need to identify new opportunities to facilitate future investment in infrastructure and public transport and services, particularly transport, for existing and committed development is a key challenge. Substantial investment is required to provide for long-term growth, to meet Melbourne 2030 sustainability objectives, and to support urban consolidation initiatives (see ‘Urban consolidation’ on page 25).
The need to stimulate the local economy and to create local employment opportunities is also a key challenge. The growth area has an above average outer urban jobs-to-resident workforce ratio of 69:100, but the area is lacking in many of the service and ‘new economy’ jobs (finance and business services, health, education, government, research and development). The ability to attract and retain employment for the current and future population is inhibited by a limited ability to coordinate investment in support of new forms of economic activity within the broader region and growth area. Identified constraints in the current transport network will need to be addressed to:
Reduce the cost of intra-urban travel Provide and plan for opportunities for new households to live close to local employment, so that the growth areas have a greater level of self containment (see ‘Employment’ on page 43) The ability to bring into play and focus significant public and private resources and to manage long-term redevelopment of the necessary scale cannot be done by Council alone. In recent years regional and local growth have far exceeded both the forecasts, and the infrastructure delivery planned on those forecasts. There are opportunities to form new partnerships between State and Local government to realistically plan, monitor and manage growth and coordinate provision of infrastructure. 3.3. Recommendations
3.3.1. Closely monitor the growth rate and land take-up on an annual basis through the Urban Development Program and adjust the UGB when necessary 3.3.2. Undertake a major review of future growth prospects of the area every five years in conjunction with the planned review of Melbourne 2030
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3.3.3. Review institutional and management arrangements to facilitate management and coordination, planning and delivery of essential infrastructure and services within the growth area 3.3.4. Accelerate and consolidate work of defining major existing and emerging transport infrastructure and service issues in the broader Region 3.3.5. Apply substantial resources to initiatives to diversify employment growth.
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4. Urban consolidation 4.1. Housing and employment opportunities
In support of Melbourne 2030, the Wyndham Growth Area has an excellent opportunity to provide for a significant amount of new development on existing major redevelopment sites within the UGB. Depending on estimates of capacity and availability, these sites could provide between 2 and 5 years of housing supply and significant new local employment opportunities (see Appendix 1 on page 72). The Committee is of the view that some of these sites could be readily available for development while others are less likely to occur at least in the short term and will be heavily dependent on the intent of the landowners.
The urban consolidation sites are designated with the “UC” prefix on Figure 1 First priority should be given to unlocking these major redevelopment sites as they would add a third ‘growth direction’ in addition to preferred areas of outward growth and provide for new styles of housing not yet supplied in the growth area to any significant extent.
Some of these sites are primarily to be developed for employment uses - such as the Technology Precinct. The creation of higher density residential environments is seen as a way to enhance the attractiveness of these sites for service and ‘new economy’ businesses (finance and business services, health, education, government, research and development). In employment precincts housing should be limited to that which directly supports the operation of the precinct. 4.2. Werribee Corridor
The major redevelopment sites are mostly clustered around the existing Werribee rail corridor with its concentration of public transport services and activity centres. This makes them more likely to generate less car use and more active lifestyles based on public transport and walking/cycling.
Activity along this corridor will require significant investment in additional infrastructure to address emerging and future accessibility issues. Urban consolidation opportunities at key sites would be enhanced by providing additional passenger rail stations at Point Cook, Derrimut, Racecourse and near McGrath Road. Priority should be given to Point Cook and a site near McGrath Road. The Derrimut Road proposal should proceed in support of the Technology precinct.
The existing congestion at Werribee Street will also need to be addressed, to enable better road vehicle (car, light commercial and bus) access to the Werribee Principal Activity Centre, and to support new employment opportunities at the Technology Precinct. If upgrades to the Werribee Street crossing are found to be ineffective or unviable, it may be necessary to focus on techniques to divert traffic that is only passing through the precinct, to alternative routes. Road connections and improved public transport services to the rest of the growth area and beyond are also needed to support these urban consolidation sites.
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There is no guarantee that these urban consolidation sites will be major housing or employment areas unless the owners agree, redevelopment is consistent with other relevant strategies, and opportunities are actively promoted and supported. Some sites, like the Racecourse, may not be redeveloped within the life of the growth area plan. However, such opportunities need to be pursued especially where the sites are wholly or partly under government ownership and control. Two sites offer a special opportunity for demonstrating consolidation principles: the Technology Precinct, a vital employment node which is owned by the State Government; and land along the Princes Highway (Farm Road area) in Werribee West, a proposed residential community which is owned by Melbourne Water. 4.3. Recommendations
4.3.1. Designate the identified major redevelopment sites in the growth area plan as potential locations for new forms of higher density urban use 4.3.2. Actively facilitate the redevelopment of the identified sites in the short to medium term through all means available such as by applying the Priority Development Zone, investing in strategic infrastructure, facilitating site assembly or by other means of support 4.3.3. Fully define and evaluate the transport and other infrastructure required to support consolidation objectives.
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5. Future land requirements 5.1. Residential supply and demand
The Committee recognises that rates of development and densities of development will vary over the planning period depending on a range of factors including the achievement of the consolidation aspirations contained in Melbourne 2030.
Based on the 2004 Urban Development Program, the Wyndham Growth Area has enough land within the existing Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to provide for the next 15 to 20 years of projected household and population growth, at current densities of development on greenfield sites and at current (low) levels of urban consolidation. If Melbourne 2030 household distribution aspirations are achieved, then the need for additional land will be further delayed. Alternatively, based on Wyndham’s increasing contribution, and recent high rates of growth, this period may be as short as 12 to 13 years (Wyndham Council assessment) or 10-12 years (development industry assessment).
Sites within the UGB have been identified to provide for up to another five years of housing supply, but some of these identified opportunities may not materialise or yield the capacity sought, at least within the planning period.
This has led the Committee to consider that it should plan for a population and household target rather than a particular year when this population and household threshold is likely to occur. It has based these thresholds on the trends identified in Victoria in Future i.e. to accommodate the estimated additional 48,000 households between 2004 and 2031. Council estimates that in June 2004, there was potential to develop another 36,400 dwellings within the UGB, excluding major redevelopment sites not zoned for housing. At the same time, the Department of Sustainability and Environment in 2004 estimated a potential for between 32,000 and 36,400 dwellings on ‘greenfield’ sites, excluding multi-unit infill and redevelopments. These similar projections suggest a shortfall of between 11,000 and 18,000 dwellings on the VIF forecasts. 5.2. New urban land requirements
Given the household trend projections to 2030, there is likely to be a need to provide additional urban land for housing and related activity.
The table in Appendix 2 indicates that the amount of land required outside the UGB would be between 0 and 1,100 hectares based on the State Government’s forecast of growth and its assumptions about urban consolidation dwelling uptake; versus almost 1800 hectares based on Wyndham Council’s forecast and assumptions.
Using the State’s analysis of dwelling supply and demand, there is no immediate or short term need to expand outside the UGB. However, the likelihood is that the provision of a 15 year land supply in the growth area will need to be addressed in the next 5 years or sooner if Council and development industry forecasts prove correct. Both Council and development industry forecasts call for release of land in the current review to maintain a 15 year supply in the UGB.
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Current growth rates suggest that development is uneven across Wyndham and that different parts of the growth area within the UGB will be built out within the planning period. That is:
the Point Cook area is likely to be fully developed around 2016 the northern areas around Tarneit and Truganina are projected to be fully developed around 2020 Wyndham Vale (at current growth rates) is estimated to remain in a development phase after 2030 (but not if the other growth areas are all closed by 2020). The Committee’s view is that it would be prudent to plan for at least the 1100 hectares of new urban land required under the State Government’s trend forecast, while assuming that some urban consolidation dwelling uptake would occur first and would thus delay the release of the new urban land for development.
On one (possibly low) estimate the growth area also has a requirement for at least 650 hectares of additional industrial land (possibly all inside the current UGB), of which future ‘heavy industry’ requirements may be around 270 hectares. Of this about 150 hectares is needed for industries that require large buffers and it may be prudent for government to ensure this land is available through more active planning controls or even the acquisition of key sites.
Other employment land requirements can be met from within the growth area’s identified employment and activity centre sites. The current Western Regional Employment and Industrial Development Study will further inform this issue. 5.3. Recommendations
5.3.1. The growth area plan should identify the potential for development beyond the planning period to enable long term planning for infrastructure provision and future activity centre based communities 5.3.2. The growth area plan should provide an additional 1,100 hectares of land outside the current UGB for future residential and related growth 5.3.3. Rates of consolidation, and land take-up within the UGB should be monitored through the Urban Development Program to ensure that a 15 years supply of developable land is available 5.3.4. Identify at least 650 hectares of land for future industrial use 5.3.5. Reassess employment land requirements following the release (in 2005) of the Western Region Employment and Industrial Development Study.
This document must not be circulated Page 28 Confidential Future growth directions and recommendations
6. Future growth directions 6.1. Constraints to development
Major constraints of future development directions have been identified and are listed in Table 2. The physical constraints are depicted in Figure 2: Physical constraints
Table 2: Constraints on development Direction Major Physical Policy Constraints Comments Constraints
South Coastal wetlands Protect Point Cook A minor adjustment to Airfield and flight the UGB was found to Flood prone and paths be justifiable in two salinity risk areas locations - the Point Protect Werribee Cook southern Werribee South South horticultural boundary affected by intensive area the incursion of the agricultural area flight paths from the Protect coastal airfield and a smaller Western Treatment wetlands and Port area west of Point Cook Plant Phillip Bay Road (see page 68).
‘Ramsar’ wetlands No development in Access and transport floodplains constraints also affect
this area. Provide odour buffers to Western Treatment Plant
South- Significant stone Maintain access to The area between West and quarries and future productive extractive Werribee West and West resources requiring industry areas Little River along the large amenity Princes Highway buffers Protect Avalon corridor is highly Airport and flight constrained by natural Extensive paths features. floodplains Protect high value Potential development Areas of major environmental areas areas are isolated, of environmental insufficient scale, too significance Protect green wedges dispersed and likely to from inappropriate be costly (e.g. transport) Groundwater development to create sustainable salinity north of the communities. Princes Highway No development in floodplains Much of the Little River township is covered by Avalon Airport flight paths and is unsuited for
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