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Foresight and Social Epistemology FORESIGHT AND SOCIAL EPISTEMOLOGY AN INQUIRY INTO THE EPISTEMIC VERSATILITY OF FUTURES RESEARCH AND THE POTENTIAL OF A SOCIOEPISTEMIC APPROACH ERDUANA SHALA 2018 This document is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0): https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en FORESIGHT AND SOCIAL EPISTEMOLOGY AN INQUIRY INTO THE EPISTEMIC VERSATILITY OF FUTURES RESEARCH AND THE POTENTIAL OF A SOCIO-EPISTEMIC APPROACH Zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades einer DOKTORIN DER PHILOSOPHIE (Dr. phil.) bei der KIT-Fakultät für Geistes- und Sozialwissenschaften des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT) angenommene DISSERTATION von ERDUANA SHALA KIT-Dekan: Prof. Dr. Michael Schefczyk 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr, Armin Grunwald 2. Gutachterin: Prof. Dr. Dr. Rafaela Hillerbrand Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 16.04.2018 There comes a time in the growth of any intellectual endeavor when further progress de- pends on knowing the philosophical foundations on which it stands. (Bell and Olick 1989: 116) Abstract II Abstract In this work, I examine the potential of social epistemology to serve as a foundation for foresight. I firstly describe the history of ideas that led to foresight and clarify the spe- cific characteristics of foresight in contrast to other futures research activities. To devel- op an epistemological classification of foresight, or rather to show the impossibility of such a classification, I sketch the development of main strands of philosophy of science and the most prominent approaches of futures research and foresight theory. I argue that foresight is best grasped on the basis of socio-epistemic approaches that recognize the importance of values in science. On this basis I propose a socio-epistemic foresight framework that includes rules for scientific criticism, operates in close connection with scientific practice, and accommodates both the role of values and forms of objectivity. The work shows that Longino’s claim that “science is social knowledge” (Longino 1990) can be adapted to foresight as “foresight is science as social knowledge”. Zusammenfassung III Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit überprüft, inwiefern ein sozialepistemologischer Ansatz als Grundlage für Foresight tauglich ist. Hierzu wird zunächst die Ideengeschichte des Denkens über die Zukunft skizziert, die letztlich in der Herausbildung der Zukunftsfor- schung und in praktischen Ansätzen wie Foresight mündete. Anschließend wird eine Definition der Charakteristika von Foresight und dessen Abgrenzung zu anderen Ansät- zen der Zukunftsforschung vorgenommen. Um Foresight wissenschaftstheoretisch ein- ordnen zu können – bzw. um die Unmöglichkeit dieses Unterfangens aufzuzeigen – werden die maßgeblichen Strömungen der Wissenschaftsphilosophie umrissen, sowie gängige Theorien zur Zukunftsforschung und zu Foresight. Hierauf aufbauend, sowie auf Ansätzen der sozialen Erkenntnistheorie, welche die Rolle von Werten in wissen- schaftlichen Prozessen berücksichtigen, wird ein Konzept für ein socio-epistemic fore- sight framework entwickelt. Dieses Framework ermöglicht es, Theorie und Praxis in Foresight einer wissenschaftlichen Kritik zu unterziehen, welche auch den geregelten Einfluss von Werten und verschiedene Objektivitiätsbegriffe berücksichtigt. Longinos These Wissenschaft sei soziales Wissen folgend (Longino 1990), ließe sich demnach Foresight als seine auf sozialem Wissen basierende Wissenschaft begründen. Danksagung IV Danksagung Die vorliegende Arbeit habe ich als Promovierende des Karlsruher Institut für Techno- logie, Institut für Philosophie, angefertigt. Fast zeitgleich war ich, bis Ende 2016, am Fraunhofer Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI am Competence Center Foresight als wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin und Doktorandin tätig. Jene Konstellation brachte mich mit vielen Menschen zusammen, von denen ich viel Fachliches und Menschliches gelernt habe, und die mich in meinem Promotionsvorha- ben unterstützt haben. All jenen möchte ich herzlich danken. Prof. Dr. Armin Grunwald, meinem Doktorvater, gilt mein besonderer Dank. Zunächst für die Ermutigung, mich dem Thema der Wissenschaftlichkeit von Zukunftsfor- schungsmethoden anzunehmen, aber auch für die konstruktiven fachlichen Gespräche, und die immer sympathisch-motivierende Art der Betreuung. Ebenso danke ich Prof. Dr. Dr. Rafaela Hillerbrand, dass sie die Aufgabe der Zweitprüferin übernahm und mir viel wertvolles Feedback zu meiner Arbeit und zu ‚values in science‘ gab. Am KIT gilt mein Dank auch Prof. Dr. Gregor Betz, der mich ins „LOBSTER“-Kolloquium einlud und mir damit den Zugang zu zahlreichen kontroversen Diskussionen über valide Zu- kunftsaussagen ermöglichte. Am Fraunhofer ISI lernte ich in zahlreichen Projekten, was Foresight ist und wie es in der Praxis betreiben wird (aber auch, wo die epistemischen Schwächen liegen) – mein Dank hierfür gilt meinen früheren CC V Kollegen, insbesondere Dr. Antje Bierwisch und Dr. Ewa Dönitz, die schon seit meiner Zeit als wissenschaftliche Hilfskraft ihr Wis- sen und ihre Leidenschaft für Foresight mit mir teilten. Vor allem aber bin ich Dr. Kers- tin Cuhls zu Dank verpflichtet, die mir mit ihrer entspannten Art und als Foresight- Koryphäe eine hervorragende Mentorin war, sowohl menschlich als auch fachlich. Ebenso danke ich Dr. Victoria Kayser für die motivierende Zeit als Büro-Kolleginnen, in der wir täglich ausheckten, wie wir Foresight optimieren können, und in der wir eine Reihe von Papers und Konferenzbeiträgen produzierten. Für Ermutigung, Kraft und positive Energie danke ich meinen Eltern, meinen Schwes- tern, und vielen Freunden. Mein größter Dank aber gilt meinem Mann Michael Wald, der in den letzten Jahren während aller Höhen und Tiefen, die mit der Promotion ein- hergingen, stets an meiner Seite war. Die Promotion selbst ist nun Vergangenheit – was bleibt, sind Erinnerungen an eine intensive und bereichernde Zeit, sowie verschiedene denkbare Zukünfte, wie die Er- kenntnisse aus dieser Arbeit sich weitertragen werden. Contents V Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................. II Zusammenfassung ........................................................................................................... III Danksagung .................................................................................................................... IV Contents ............................................................................................................................ V Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... VIII List of tables ................................................................................................................... IX List of figures ................................................................................................................... X 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 2 2. A Short History of Future Thinking ............................................................................ 11 2.1 Perceptions of time and the future since Antiquity ............................................... 11 2.2 The impact of the idea of progress on future thinking .......................................... 15 2.3 The rise of futures research ................................................................................... 21 2.4 Foresight, TA and FTA – the fuzziness of futures terms ...................................... 25 3. What is Foresight? ....................................................................................................... 30 3.1 Forecasting as a precursor of foresight ................................................................. 30 3.1.1 Forecasting technological change for planning and decision making ...... 30 3.1.2 The limits of forecasting ........................................................................... 33 3.2 The characteristics of foresight ............................................................................. 36 3.2.1 New purposes and application areas ........................................................ 37 3.2.2 Methodological advancement................................................................... 38 3.2.3 Multiple futures ........................................................................................ 39 3.2.4 The time span ........................................................................................... 40 3.3 Using foresight ...................................................................................................... 41 3.3.1 Selection of foresight methods ................................................................. 41 3.3.2 The interrelation of qualitative and quantitative approaches ................... 43 3.4 How a foresight process works ............................................................................. 45 Contents VI 3.5 Synopsis ................................................................................................................ 49 4. On Different Accounts of Science ............................................................................... 51 4.1 Positivist and realist accounts of science .............................................................. 52 4.1.1 The inductivist approach .........................................................................
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