Gerald Celente's

Gerald Celente’s TRENDSJOURNAL.COM | FORECASTING WORLDWIDE SINCE 1980 | WINTER 2014

HISTORY BEFORE IT HAPPENS

SPECIAL REPORT A global wake-up call 10 powerful, transformational trends for 2014 IN THIS ISSUE

HISTORY BEFORE IT HAPPENS DEPARTMENTS SPECIAL REPORT A global Keynote Grim trend lines Editor and Publisher with glimmers of Gerald Celente wake-up call opportunity Senior Editor Alex Silberman 2 Ten powerful, transformational trends for 2014 Contributing Editors Drawing points Dr. Paul Craig Roberts Why do we pay Bennett Daviss tyrants to build Eldad Benary prisons around us? Subscriptions Manager Emily Arter 46 Illustrations Scorecard Anthony Freda 2013’s hits Design and misses Creative Circle 48 Media Solutions, East Providence, RI

Cover: Protestors facing down police lines in Kiev, Ukraine in late January 2014. Rob Stothard/Getty Images.

All rights reserved. For permission to reproduce or translate material from The Trends Journal®, contact The Trends Research Institute. contributors The Trends Journal (ISSN 1065- 2094) is published quarterly by Derek Osenenko (“The rise of Anthony Freda (Illustrations The Trends Research Institute. ©2013. Globalnomic, Trends the Boomer Renaissance,” page 34) is for “The haves and have-nots,” p. Journal, Trend Alert, Trends in the executive editor of the Times Herald- 26; “Shape of the future,” p. 30; and The News and History Before Record and Hudson Valley Media Group in “Drawing Points,” p. 46) has created it Happens are registered trademarks of the Trends Middletown, New York. He has a lengthy history award-winning illustrations and paintings Research Institute. as a senior news media executive, managing for numerous publications, including the New The Trends Research Institute several award-winning newsrooms for major Yorker, Time, Rolling Stone, and the New York P.O. Box 3476 media companies. With an Times. He has been selected to be part of The Kingston, NY 12402 educational background in Society of Illustrators and American Illustration 845 331-3500 www.trendsresearch.com psychology, Osenenko is annual competitions. Freda considers himself an currently co-authoring a information warrior, and his politically charged book on how personality imagery currently graces millions of computer traits can evolve creatively screens via a wide spectrum of mainstream and during different life stages. alternative websites and magazines, including Trends Journal. His artwork often re-purposes vintage American ephemera into ironic, darkly humorous takes on the issues burning in the zeitgeist.

THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 WHAT IN March to economic madness The haves and have-nots: THE WORLD New market realities you must understand 4 Trouble in Slavelandia IS GOING ON? Minimum wage increase will do little to Each new day seems Altruism finds its heart to bring with it a new reverse hardening trend 26 on the Internet geopolitical crisis, one more political debacle, Technology shows us who and Shape of the future: more dire economic how we’re helping 9 Global Chinatown warnings, increased social Chinese investment comes in all sizes, disturbances, another Wake-up call: Confronting environmental threat. shapes and dollar amounts 30 the abuse of power head-on What does it all mean? What can be done? How A collective consciousness taking hold The rise of the will it end? accepts no outcome other than change 12 Boomer Renaissance Gerald Celente’s Trends The need to express creativity while doing Journal® is the only Your medical data magazine in the world good leads to promising “encores” in life 34 is a hot commodity that pinpoints how today’s current events form future Who’s mining your medical history Older adults come of age trends and how they and why 18 in social media will affect your business, This market is about to show big returns 39 career, family and future … Populism is powerful and your life. growing — but not everywhere Digital learning’s golden era Founded by a political atheist, agenda- and The U.S. is too passive and controlled to Remaining stigma is broken; online learning advertising-free, and take part in this global trend 22 is just as good 42 beholden to no one, Trends Journal provides unbiased insights, analysis and forecasts of critical socioeconomic, finance, political, economic, business, consumer/ retail, entertainment, Alex Silberman (“Altruism Lisa Ramirez (“Digital learning’s golden era,” technology, science and finds its heart on the Internet,” p. p. 42) has been living and writing in New York’s other trends that are fact- 9; and “The haves and have-nots,” Hudson Valley for more than 20 years. She began based, data-driven and on p. 26) has been an editor at the Trends her career as an obituary writer for a daily tabloid the cutting edge. Gerald Celente’s track Journal for nearly twenty years. He has and has since worked as a reporter and editor, record speaks for itself. also worked at the Wall Street Journal, Life magazine covering everything from crime He’s been forecasting and Motorcycle Weekly. He frequently writes on cyber to politics to pop culture. She worldwide since 1980. events and health care for numerous publications. is currently a freelancer No one has been so and lives in Summitville, right, on so many issues, so often! If you want Bennett Daviss (“Your medical data is a hot N.Y. with her husband and commodity,” p. 18; and “Older adults come of age in to anticipate change, daughter. take proactive measures social media,” p. 39) has been reporting on science, to seize opportunities technology, energy, and environmental issues and and develop profit trends for more than 30 years. His articles have strategies, subscribe to appeared in Discover, Money, Smithsonian, and more Trends Journal. Read than 40 other publications on four continents. He about “History Before It Happens” from the world makes his home in a part of rural New England leader in trend forecasting. where chickens still outnumber electronic devices.

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 1 KEYNOTES Grim trend lines with glimmers of opportunity Make no mistake about it, a year of transformation lies ahead

By Gerald Celente PUBLISHER This is my 34th year of forecasting trends. For the past dozen or so, when analyzing the trends that would shape much of the year ahead, I would say, “How sad, the future looks less promising than the past.” Unfortunately, I’ve been right. Each year ends worse than the year before. And I’m not alone. Along with indisputable said they will have less financial security than the socioeconomic statistics and hard geopolitical facts previous generation. to back up my forecasts, even the polls agree. A just Burdened with over a trillion dollars in college released AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Re- debt, they have good reason to worry. According search poll found that 70 percent of Americans have to a Bloomberg study, college tuition and fees have “no faith in government to make progress on the increased 1,120 percent since record-keeping began important problems and issues facing the country in in 1978. Yet, just over the past decade, wages of col- 2014.” lege graduates have actually declined by five percent. When I was growing up, it was a given that my Among the implications, as I forecasted in Trends future would provide greater opportunities than my 2000 (Warner Books, 1997): With middle-income job parents (“The Greatest Generation”) had enjoyed. opportunities shipped overseas for both high school Not anymore. A majority — 54 percent — say life in and college grads, the percentage of men and women America is worse today than four decades ago. Only ages 25–34 living in their parents’ home would rise 20 percent of college graduates believe their genera- significantly and first-time home-buyers among that tion will have more success than the generation age group would sharply contract. before them. More than twice as many (58 percent) This grim future for the young is far beyond an keynotes Grim trend lines with glimmers of opportunity Make no mistake about it, a year of transformation lies ahead

American phenomenon. In the Globalnomics section I don’t agree that the “youth are our future.” They of the Autumn 2013 Trends Journal, we listed the sky- are just part of it. As I see it, the shape of the future rocketing youth unemployment figures from around is in the hands of older generations more so than the world. Even in China, whose economy is one younger generations. The older generations, having of the world’s strongest, some 25 percent of college lived through defeat, victory, ups and downs, have grads can’t find jobs. experience and wisdom that only time on the planet Yet, you hear it all the time: “The youth are our fu- can buy. We know where we are in life, understand ture.” If they are, the future doesn’t look bright: how we got here and can see where we’re going. We know the trends. We’ve seen Young people ‘feel they have nothing to live for’ them before. We have “his- As many as three quarters of a million young people in the U.K. may feel that they tory” on our side. have nothing to live for, a study for the Prince’s Trust charity claims. Although 2014 will present The trust says almost a third of long-term unemployed young people have con- some great difficulties and templated taking their own lives. The research found that long-term unemployed young people were more than pose monumental challenges, twice as likely as their peers to have been prescribed anti-depressants. as you will see from the Top 10 One in three (32 percent) had contemplated suicide, while one in four (24 per- Trends of 2014, great opportu- cent) had self-harmed. nities also exist. If acted upon, The report found 40% of jobless young people had faced symptoms of mental illness, including suicidal thoughts, feelings of self-loathing and panic attacks, as a they can lead us to a more direct result of unemployment. prosperous, bountiful and en- (BBC, 1 January 2014) lightened future. TJ

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Photo by Anibal Adrian Greco/The New York Times/Redux Reacting to the instability of the peso in Argentina, people lined up outside a bank in Buenos Aires on Friday to buy dollars. March to economic madness New market realities you must understand

By Gerald Celente PUBLISHER Back in June 2013, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke proposed to taper—and possibly end—the Fed’s unprecedented $85 billion a month purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries, stock markets tumbled and bond yields rose. The Dow Jones Industrials and the Standard & Poor’s 500 each fell 1.4 percent. The Nasdaq composite index fell 1.1 percent and the 10-year Treasury bond rose to 2.33 percent from 2.18 percent. With few exceptions, markets overseas also fell on the tapering news. In response to the sell-off, the Fed quickly calmed the market with assurances that the money flows would continue until positive signs of economic vitality had been restored. The media was flooded with financial industry shills and government lackeys telling everyone to take a deep breath and to have trust in the Fed. Following Bernanke’s announcement, we forecast the Fed would indeed taper, but would wait until after the Christmas holiday shopping season, fearing that paring back in December could spook the markets and have a negative ripple effect on retail sales. On December 18th the Fed announced it would cut purchases by $10 billion a month in January. Within seconds, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after initially falling sharply on the news, shot up 292.71

points (see chart at right). BigCharts.com

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According to Pam Martin, who worked on Wall Street for 21 years and is editor of Wall Street On Billionaires Worth $3.7 Trillion Surge as Gates Wins 2013 Parade: A Citizens Guide to Wall Street, it was The richest people on the planet got even richer in 2013, adding $524 billion to their collective net worth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a daily ranking of the panic short-covering rather than a rally that drove world’s 300 wealthiest individuals. stocks up. Who pushed the market up in the first The aggregate net worth of the world’s top billionaires stood at $3.7 trillion at the mar- place to panic the shorts? “Because of off-shore ket close on Dec. 31, according to the ranking. The biggest gains came in the technology trading and dark pools, we’ll never know who industry, which soared 28 percent during the year. Of the 300 people who appeared on the final ranking of 2013, only 70 registered a net loss for the 12-month period. turned the onset of Fed tightening into a rally and “The rich will keep getting richer in 2014,” John Catsimatidis, the billionaire founder of a cheery ‘vote of confidence in the economy,’ ” she real estate and energy conglomerate Red Apple Group Inc., said in a telephone interview concluded. from his New York office. “Interest rates will remain low, equity markets will keep rising, and the economy will grow at less than 2 percent.” According to Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, “The …”Billionaires are asking what they should do with their money in 2014,” Mark Hae- markets also snapped back because the Fed made fele, Global Head of Investment for UBS AG’s wealth-management unit, said by phone clear that the reduced purchases were not an from New York. “Central banks will continue to be supportive, so equities will likely con- indication of less accommodation and Bernanke tinue to rise during the year.” had guaranteed continued low interest rates well (Bloomberg Personal Finance, 2 January 2014) past the time that the unemployment rate declined below 6.5 percent.” Who pushed the market up to panic the shorts? The numbers don’t lie. The average family income The most likely suspect is the New York Fed, which, of the top 0.01 percent, increased by 76.2 percent in fact, has its own trading desk where it can partici- from 2002 to 2012 while, over the same period, the pate in markets, using essentially unlimited funds. average family income of the bottom 90 percent de- Thus, despite the mid-year threat of tapering and creased by 10.7 percent. end year follow-through, global stocks closed out the It was a worldwide phenomenon. Yes indeed, year with the MSCI World Index spiking nearly 25 “Central banks will continue to be supportive, so eq- percent, giving it the best gain since 2009, while the uities will likely continue to rise during the year.” It’s Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 17 percent. In the U.S., plain and simple: The richest are getting even filthier the Dow Jones Industrial Average spiked 26.5 percent rich as the rest of society’s income shrinks and debt on the year — its best performance since 1995 — and levels grow. And, with record-low interest rates the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index registered its big- and trillions in cheap money fueling the investment gest gain since 1997, rising 30 percent. sectors and equity markets, the average ‘saver’ who But the Wall Street world of stocks is a world used to get 4 to 5 percent interest from their bank or away from Main Street. As the New Year rang in, money market accounts is lucky to get a quarter of the Fed’s total holdings topped $4 trillion, compared one percent on his savings today. with around $839 billion before the Panic of ’08. And Who would have believed that America, the place while equity players have handsomely benefited, the on the planet once admired as “the land of opportu- trillions pumped into the markets have not trickled nity,” would become “the land of inequality?” Simul- down to the man on the street: taneous with publication of the Autumn 2013 Trends Journal — whose cover story was titled “Empire Andrew Huszar: America fading fast” — a Pew Research Center poll Confessions of a Quantitative Easer was released showing that the perception of America I can only say: I’m sorry, America. As a former Federal as a world leader has tumbled to a 40-year low. Reserve official, I was responsible for executing the Imagine yourself back in the year 2000, reading centerpiece program of the Fed’s first plunge into the bond-buying experiment known as quantitative eas- a story titled “Holiday Spending Highlights U.S. ing. The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool Wealth Gap.” Anyone saying that back then would for helping Main Street. But I’ve come to recognize have been called a socialist, Marxist, anti-capitalist- the program for what it really is: the greatest back- communist. Not anymore. A story with that very title door Wall Street bailout of all time. was headlined on CNBC — the Wall Street Standard (The Wall Street Journal, 11 November 2013) CLICK TO READ of business news — on December 3, 2103. The facts are there for everyone to read and understand. Since the Panic of ‘08, the top 1 percent, whose

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WEALTH GAP? TRY GRAND CANYON To varying degrees, it’s the same everywhere. Even the Bank of England has admitted that its cheap money policy had mostly enriched the top 5 percent of households. As the data proves, over the past four years, the world’s billionaires have seen their combined net worth double while governments impose draconian austerity measures that robbed the public to pay for the massive frauds committed by bankster bandits and financial mobsters. So what’s going on? Some people say to me, “This could not have happened if it was not for the dumb- ing-down of society.” Possibly, but since the dawn of recorded history “civilizations” have a proven track record of having what it takes to destroy themselves. You only have to go back to World War II Germany. Scientifically, philosophically, culturally, in the 1930s Germans were at the top of Western civilization, only to let a two-bit freak, Adolf Hitler, destroy their nation. From the Egyptians to the Romans to all those known and unknown civilizations long before and long after, once-great nations have been destroyed by their own governments, leaders and assorted mad- men and madwomen, while the majority of its citizens either joined in the madness or remained silent and only a few protested. Dwight D. Eisenhower got it partially right when he said, “Our American heritage is threatened as much by our own indifference as it is by the most unscrupulous office or by the most powerful foreign threat. The future of this republic is in the hands of the America voter.” But in America, France, Italy, Egypt, Syria, Canada, Mexico, Argentina … name the country… who does the voter get to vote for? More often than not, rather than having a choice between the greater of two goods, they’re constrained to choosing a “lesser of two evils.” Top: Skiers travel up incomes increased 31.4 percent, seized 95 percent to the slopes on the of all income gains. During the same period, the WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW Jakobshorn mountain income of the bottom 99 percent grew only .04 Investing in stocks based on earnings and valu- in Davos, Switzerland, on Saturday, Jan. 25, percent. Between 2007 and 2012, median household ation is a relic of the past. Today, there is no such 2014 as world leaders income in the U.S. slumped 8.3 percent. Since the thing as a real “market.” That’s a figment of eco- attended the World Panic of ’08 the number of people on food stamps nomic textbook imagination. Computers running Economic Forum there. algorithms, not humans, are trading on nano-cents Above: People eat spiked from 28.2 million to 47.7 million, a 70 percent dinner at a soup kitchen increase in just five years. in nano-seconds. in New York City. The top 1 percent own over 50 percent of the Everything is manipulated by banking bandits Low-income people and the higher authorities. Proof? Interest rates! No nationwide saw their nation’s wealth, the highest level of inequality in food stamps cut. a hundred years. Just 400 Americans are worth $2 question about it. The Fed proudly admits to rigging Top photo by Jason Alden/ trillion, which, to put it into perspective, is more them. Market fundamentals? There are none! Fol- Bloomberg via Getty Images; lowing the Panic of ’08, the Federal Reserve and cen- bottom photo by John Moore/ than the GDP of countries such as Italy, Mexico or Getty Images Canada. tral banks around the world were secretly pumping 6 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends

TRENDPOST As the Fed accelerate its taper program, we forecast market funda- While it is extremely difficult to forecast the timing of these events mentals beyond Fed control will push interest rates higher. And since in the face of a variety of behind-the-scenes schemes and insider ma- this has been an interest rate recovery (see “The Interest Rate Recov- nipulations, our best estimate is that economic turmoil will rattle the ery,” Trends Journal, Spring 2013), the higher rates go, the deeper the global markets by the end of the second quarter of 2014. Considering economy will sink. Therefore, in its effort to avoid economic panic the colossal failure of the QE programs to boost general economic from spreading, we anticipate the Fed, as well as other central banks, growth, any new stimulus programs, or continuation of current ones, will devise new money injection schemes to pump up equities, inflate will be met with high skepticism and do little to boost markets and/ commercial and residential real estate sectors and keep retail sales or consumer confidence. The real estate, auto and retail sectors will be from plummeting. These new stimulus programs, which will serve to dragged lower while the equity markets risk a panic-like sell off. For us devalue already battered fiat currencies, will also drive up gold and (we do not provide financial advice), precious metals remains the pri- silver prices. mary long-term safe-haven asset. trillions of dollars into the failing financial system. ments and central banks, in attempts to stop money These were, at the time, unimaginable schemes to outflows and currency devaluations, have dramati- be undertaken by nations that prided themselves on cally raised interest rates. Thus, the higher the inter- capitalism. est rates the more it cost to borrow money which, And while we are not naïve about the dirty deal- in turn, will put even greater downward pressure on ings of the financial industry, the rigging of the daily those already weakened economies. multi-trillion dollar LIBOR and FOREX markets has It was also cheap-money policies that fueled Chi- turned out to be no conspiracy theory, it is fact. And, na’s economy following the Panic of ’08 and it will if there’s trouble in the foreign exchange markets, no be tight-money policies that will lower its economic need to worry. Uncle Sam rides to the rescue with growth in 2014. During the holiday season, when about $105 billion in the Exchange Stabilization Fund most people were not tuned into the news, the trend (ESF) and another $58.1 billion in Special Drawing indicators were being reported: Rights (SDR) from the IMF (The International Mafia Federation). And if markets really get out of hand, Concerns mount over China cash squeeze there’s always the Plunge Protection Team (Work- Painful reforms loom amid rising risks ing Group on Financial Markets) — comprising the China’s cash squeeze has worsened despite the central Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Board bank’s repeated attempts to calm markets with emer- of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman gency money injections, throwing a harsh spotlight on rising risks in the second-biggest economy of the SEC and the Chairman of the Commodity (Financial Times, Christmas Eve, 2013) Futures Trading Commission — to bring order to unruly markets. Fears after Key China debt level soars 70% The game is rigged. Capisce? The levels of money Local government borrowing nears $3 trillion and market manipulation are unprecedented in Local government debt levels in China have soared into history. Thus, the best we can do is make forecasts almost $3 trillion in less than three years … highlighting based on generally accepted market fundamentals. one of Beijing’s most daunting challenges as it attempts Considering the socioeconomic and geopolitical to sustain economic growth while avoiding a financial crisis. policies being advanced, we forecast a troubled and (Financial Times, New Years Eve, 2013) turbulent 2014 economy. We had forecast that the Federal Reserve would announce another round of tapering in late Janu- Like the U.S., UK, Eurozone, and so many other ary and that, as a result, emerging market equities countries, China — whose debt-to-GDP ratio rose would be battered. Both forecasts were correct. It was from 128 percent to 216 percent over the past five the five-year flood of stimulus that drove demand years — had become reliant on cheap capital. Local for emerging market assets and it will be the lack of governments, whose debt load increased some 13 cheap money that will badly batter those economies percent since 2012, had spent heavily on infrastruc- and drive down their currencies. Yet, even as emerg- ture and dead-end projects to fuel growth even as the ing market economies are in decline, their govern- nation’s import/export markets contracted and GDP

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The game is rigged. Capisce? The levels of money and market manipulation are unprecedented in history.

A man walking past an ATM with his baggage at the entrance of a bank in Beijing. A shockwave is looming in China’s multi- trillion dollar ‘shadow banking’ system, with an unprecedented default only days away on a $500 million investment product sold to hundreds of people. Photo by Wang Zhao/AFP/ Getty Images

weakened. With nearly half of that debt coming due is likely to remain near zero for a considerable time at the end of this year and China’s government trying after the asset purchases end, perhaps well after” the to wean speculators off cheap money by raising rates, jobless rate breaches the Fed’s 6.5 percent threshold, loans from shadow bankers, who charge loan shark he said. The Fed has been holding its benchmark in- rates, comprise an estimated 11 percent of new lend- terest between zero and 0.25 percent since December ing. It is estimated that the shadow-banking sector 2008. Yet, when Bernanke announced his blueprint now accounts for 20 to 30 percent of China’s GDP. for tapering in June 2013, the 10-year Treasury yield And overall, 43 percent of local government’s $3 tril- spiked from 1.6 percent to over 3 percent. TJ lion in debt came from “non-bank” sources, according to China’s National Audit Office. Meanwhile, back in the States, the New Year started off on a down note. It was the longest stretch of declines to start a year for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 2005. U.S. stocks would have their worst January since 2009. The usual market-driving suspects, such as employment numbers, retail sales, manufacturing, housing, etc., were identified as causes in the business press, but the lurking prospect of rising interest rates was not among the factors mentioned. In fact, Fed Chairman Bernanke — who Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images had promised that the Fed would remain commit- A trader on the floor of the New York Stock ted to keeping interest rates low even as it began Exchange on January 29, 2014. Minutes after the Federal Reserve announced another reduction in curtailing its monthly bond purchases — dismissed its monthly bond buying program, the Dow Jones the possibility. “The target for the federal funds rate industrial average dropped more than 200 points.

8 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 TOP 2014 TRENDS Altruism finds its heart on the Internet Technology shows us who and how we’re helping

By Alex Silberman SENIOR EDITOR Every morning, without fail, my wife turns her attention to the greater good while she sips her first cup of tea. She steers her browser to a website (greatergood.com) where, with a click of the mouse, she can donate a few cents to ameliorate world hunger, fund autism treatment and research, and support the work of animal shelters. This simple act doesn’t cost her any money, as advertisers provide the funding in exchange for flashing their messages at her. My wife’s sole investment is one of time and mindfulness. For these few moments she joins herself to the community of those with compassion for the needs of others. For these few moments she is part of the new altruism made possible by the internet. People who focus on 2013, while traditional the negative aspects of modes increased technology and who’ve only 1.5 percent. Bear come to think of the Click to give in mind that as the Internet and social Internet becomes ever media as the realm of more central to our “selfies” and general lives, giving on the self indulgence, of cybercrime and cyber- Internet becomes ever more natural. For bullying, may not think that Internet altruism example, statistics from Network for Good, computes. “Slacktivists” is what they call folks the Internet’s leading nonprofit giving platform, who use the ease of action on the net, belittling their which handles web donations for about 40,000 achievements and doubting their commitment. But organizations, shows that online giving occurs facts don’t bear them out. largely between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays. That For one thing, digital giving, though more prevalent is, people do most of their giving during work hours. among the young, is quickly becoming the chief There’s even a drop in giving during the noon hour. means of making donations for everyone: Even 42 For another, there’s no evidence the “click-to- percent of boomers, the age group responsible for give” sites drive down other donations or actions; the most philanthropic dollars, made their 2013 my wife hasn’t eased up on any of her causes. Such donations via websites, according to a study on everyday digital altruism actually causes a domino the charitable habits of Americans by Blackbaud, a effect, setting the stage for other altruists to engage technology firm servicing the non-profit community. in physical world activities like delivering and distributing the goods or services raised online. INTERNET GIVING ON SHARP RISE And nearly half of givers aged 18-48 engage with the Overall, online giving increased 14 percent in causes that interest them with more than money. Rather than just funneling money into the maw of big philanthropy, we can now, to a large degree, see the people we’re helping and how we’re helping them.

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In fact, fewer than a third of them believe they can make the most difference by donating money alone. As defined in the dictionary, altruism is “the belief in or practice of disinterested and selfless concern for the well-being of others.” In short, altruism is the opposite of selfishness. Some philosophers propose that there’s no such thing as pure altruism, that there is always some personal benefit to the do- gooder, be it something as intangible as a warm glow and ego enhancement or something as valuable as the likelihood of reciprocity. The theory that rings truest to me, and is supported by many evolutionary psychologists, is that the individual has a biological imperative to be concerned with the well-being of his own group. Certainly in the early days of man, one’s safety and survival depended on his immediate relatives, then his clan or tribe or village. When the altruistic impulse extends into the wider world of strangers it can be seen as a holdover of the early evolutionary trait. Or, perhaps altruism in today’s globalized Clementine (above) has world is a continuation of evolution as we recognize, received — and repaid more and more of us, something akin to a human — several loans from family. The Internet and social media have definitely kiva.org in support of her sales of smoked contributed to making a broader and broader fish, shoes and fabric at community feel like family. markets in Benin. Online charitable sites are able to paint a portrait Harrison (left), a toddler of the members of that family. Rather than just with severe epilepsy, funneling money into the maw of big philanthropy has received donations and funding the big salaries of its administrators, for medical expenses via giveforward.com. we can now, to a large degree, see the people we’re helping and how we’re helping them. Emily Scott (below) According to the Blackbaud report, this is especially turned to gofundme. com to crowdfund her important for givers under the age of 50. They training and trip to the want to know how their donations are making a Sochi Olympics. difference: Nearly 60 percent of Millennials, and half of Generation X donors, said that seeing results from their contributions influenced their decision to give. About a quarter of the under-50 givers follow their beneficiaries’ progress on social media and websites. CAN COMPASSION BE LEARNED? Compassion, caring for people who are suffering, is necessary to motivate altruistic behavior. A new study by researchers at the Center for Investigating Healthy Minds at the Waisman Center of the University of Wisconsin-Madison shows that adults can actually be trained to be more compassionate, whether the training can result in greater altruistic behavior and whether neural systems show changes related to experiencing compassion. For the study, investigators trained young adults

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TRENDPOST Altruism will find an even broader and more comfortable home in the digital world in 2014, which will fuel giving and meaningful, focused acts of charity across the globe. Here are some sites that will be leading the charge: GoFundMe.com creates crowdfunding sites for individuals, groups was founded in 2005, more than 1 million lenders have contributed and organizations to raise money for medical issues, education costs $519 million in loans that have changed lives in 73 countries. The loans and other personal needs. Since its founding in 2010, it has helped raise have a 99 percent repayment rate. $160 million from 1.4 million donors to benefit over 350,000 needs. GiveForward.com has helped raise $80.5 million to cover the medi- Kiva.org, a leading microfinance lender, leverages the internet and a cal expenses of individuals through crowdfunding. worldwide network of microfinance institutions to allow individuals to YouCaring.com is a free service that helps create personal sites to lend as little as $25 to create opportunity around the world. Since Kiva crowdsource “the causes people care about.” in compassion meditation, an ancient Buddhist The control group was exposed to the same images, technique meant to increase caring feelings for people and asked to recast them in a more positive light as who are suffering. Participants envisioned a time in reappraisal. when someone was suffering and practiced wishing Measuring the change in brain activity between that his or her suffering was relieved. They repeated the beginning and the end of the training, the phrases — such as, “May you be free from suffering. researchers found that the people who were the May you have joy and ease” — to help them focus. most altruistic after compassion training were the Participants first meditated on easing the ones who showed the most brain changes. Activity suffering of a loved one, someone whom they was increased in the inferior parietal cortex, a region easily felt compassion for. Then, they practiced involved in empathy and understanding others. compassion for themselves and, subsequently, for The study suggests that compassion, like a a stranger. Finally, they practiced compassion for physical or academic skill, can be enhanced with someone they actively had a conflict with, such training and practice. Perhaps someday compassion as a difficult coworker or roommate. “It’s kind of and kindness training in schools will help children like weight training,” said lead researcher Helen learn to be attuned to their own emotions as well Weng. “We found that people can actually build up as those of others, a knowledge that could decrease their compassion ‘muscle’ and respond to others’ bullying. Perhaps more people will learn they are suffering with care and a desire to help.” their brothers’ keeper. TJ The compassion trained group was compared to a control group that learned cognitive reappraisal, a technique to reframe their thoughts in a more positive fashion. Both groups listened to guided audio instructions over the Internet for 30 minutes per day for two weeks. A test (called the “Redistribution Game”) was devised to see if those trained in compassion would be more altruistic, helping people they had never met. “We found that Bob Morrison (front) people trained in compassion were more likely Sandra Gieco (middle) to spend their own money altruistically to help and Douglas Good- someone who was treated unfairly than those who man, participate in the were trained in cognitive reappraisal,” Weng says. compassion meditation in Cambridge Massachu- The study also measured changes in brain setts. People trained in responses using functional magnetic resonance this type of meditation imaging (fMRI) before and after training. While were more likely to spend their own money in the MRI scanner, participants viewed images altruistically than those depicting human suffering, such as a crying child or trained with cognitive a burn victim, and used their newly learned skills to methods. generate feelings of compassion towards the people. Photo by Jason Bean/ Getty Images

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 11 TOP 2014 TRENDS

People protesting the killing of a young Turkish demonstrator A protester stands in front of Turkish police during a demonstration by police during clashes in Istanbul run away from tear gas on near the entrance of Istanbul’s Taksim Square on July 20, 2013. September 10, 2013. Photo by Gurcan Ozturk/AFP/Getty Images Photo by Gurcan Ozturk/AFP/Getty Images

12 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends Wake-up call: Confronting the abuse of power head-on A collective consciousness taking hold accepts no outcome other than change

By Gerald Celente PUBLISHER he future has never been clearer. If societies continue on the current path set by major political leaders, financial powers, multinational interests and military forces, we can forecast with full confidence that tomorrow will bring more sorrow than joy, more hardship than prosperity, more war than Tpeace, more physical and mental illness than strong bodies and sound minds. Current events form future trends. It’s all However, taking all the unknowns into there for those wishing to open their eyes, ears consideration, we are confident in forecasting and minds to understand how and why the a turbulent 2014, equally infused with the po- consequences of geopolitical and socioeco- tential for significant positive change and the nomic actions taken today will shape tomor- possibility of utter social and economic misery. row. It’s as simple as cause and effect. That Absent the wild cards, a more promising future Above: A man holds a being said, the future is not predestined. can be attained if “we the people” re-establish placard that reads ‘Don’t obey’ during a dem- While we make our trend forecasts based the true essence of the Constitution and re- onstration against the on reported facts and available data, we can’t store the principles upon which the U.S. and government in Taksim envision underhanded schemes being cooked other democratic nations were founded. Square, Istanbul on June up behind the scenes. For example, who would To those who are apathetic about restoring 25, 2013. have imagined the too-big-to-fail schemes to these vital principles, take a walk on the wild Photo by Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images bail out failing banks, industries and financial side with us and see what’s going on around institutions in the U.S., the world’s paragon of the world and at home. Then decide if you capitalism? Without being on the inside, who want to help create the future or let others could have imagined the grand Federal Re- decide it for you. As the 18th-century German serve QE experiment and backdoor stimulus poet, playwright and philosopher Friedrich schemes that pumped untold trillions in direct von Schiller observed, “In today, already walks subsidies to banks, speculators and financial tomorrow.” institutions? And then there are the wild cards: miscalcu- OUR JOURNEY BEGINS IN THE MIDDLE EAST lations, scandals, terror strikes, assassinations, Egypt is in the grips of a bloody civil war and typhoons, floods, earthquakes, etc. These are the people are essentially living under martial the abstract and unpredictable factors that can law. Even though the military overthrew the derail any well-shaped trend line. democratically-elected government, the White

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 13 top 2014 trends

House doesn’t acknowledge that and keeps providing military aid, despite U.S. laws explicitly banning military funding after a coup. Take a trip to Turkey. Last spring, tens of thousands of citizens staged week-long protests to stop the destruction of an Ottoman-era army barracks and a shopping mall on the site of Gezi Park in downtown Istanbul. The sit-ins were broken up by police, who killed five people, wounded some 8,000 and arrested over 3,000. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed the “interest rate lobby” for provok- ing the demonstrations. Like other emerging markets that were flooded with cash from the Fed’s loose monetary policies, Turkey attracted billions of dollars in portfolio investments. But as interest rates moved

South Africa The Good News Jim Wallace /Smithsonian Institution higher, the cheap money that flooded in began flow- Flickr via Wikipedia Flickr via Wikipedia ing out and their boom economy turned bust. Then, in late December, the Erdogan government Hard lessons in was again under attack, this time as a result of a massive corruption scandal that spread from gov- taking a stand, ernment ministers to their family members. On a downward spiral since the middle of 2013, the Turk- ish lira crashed to new lows against the dollar and making lasting change borrowing costs soared. Will there be a military coup As the year ended, anti-Apartheid legend Nelson Mandela passed on. or civil war? That’s uncertain. But what is certain is In rejoicing over the freedom of his people, Mandela once said: “The UN that there will be turmoil, the economy will decline took a strong stand against apartheid; and over the years, an international and Turkey will be a destabilizing force in an already consensus was built, which helped to bring an end to this iniquitous system. destabilized region. But we know too well that our freedom is incomplete without the freedom As for Turkey’s neighbor Syria, the civil war between of the Palestinians….” the Bashar al-Assad government and rebel forces Mandela also said “Israel should withdraw from all the areas which it won that are armed, funded and/or supported by the Arab from the Arabs in 1967. In particular, Israel should withdraw completely from League, Turkey, France, UK and the U.S. has claimed the Golan Heights, from south Lebanon and from the West Bank.” some 170,000 lives and displaced millions since it As the year began, pro-apartheid champion Ariel Sharon passed on. In began in 2011. If Western allies and the Arab League vowing to continue taking Palestinian land to expand Israeli real estate de- pledge yet more support for the rebels, the war will velopments (a.k.a. settlements), Sharon told Winston Churchill’s grandson: continue to escalate and more refugees will flood into “We’ll make a pastrami sandwich out of them. We’ll insert a strip of Jewish neighboring countries. Those governments, in turn, settlements in between the Palestinians, and then another strip of Jewish will be drawn yet deeper into the Syrian conflict. settlements right across the West Bank, so that in 25 years’ time neither the Remember Libya? That “humanitarian mission” United Nations nor the United States, nobody, will be able to tear it apart.” launched in 2011 by Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Agree or disagree, fond memories or disgusting ones, both men are dead. Obama against a sovereign nation — at the urging They are just dust. They did what they did to shape the future. But they of Hillary Clinton, Samantha Powers and Susan didn’t do it alone. They followed many who fought and died before them, Rice — has turned what was once the richest country and their goals and ambitions were fulfilled with the support of like-minded in North Africa into a bloody hell hole. The “time- followers. limited, scope-limited, kinetic action” has killed tens What are you going to do today that will help shape tomorrow? Will you of thousands of civilians. The UK’s David Cameron ignore the current events forming future trends, passively watching them and former French President Nicholas Sarkozy also unfold, or help create tomorrow? How will history judge you? History doesn’t championed this United Nations-sanctioned initia- judge. You are the judge. When you’re dead you’re gone. tive, which has destabilized the region and ravaged This is your wake-up call. the nation. — Gerald Celente Mali, North Sudan and South Sudan, Nigeria, the Central African Republic, Congo and Somalia are 14 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends

Four days before the Czech early general election in October 2013, a giant purple hand with middle finger extended was installed on the Vltava River. The piece, sculpted by artist David Cerny, was addressed to Czech president Milos Zeman, whose residency is at Prague Castle (visible in the background). Photo by Michal Cizek/AFP/ Getty Images also bastions of the ongoing unrest and strife reign- loose from the euro and the European Union. These ing across much of the African continent. uprisings are being further fueled by daily doses of Elsewhere, the ongoing civil strife in Bahrain, scandals involving politicians, the politically con- where the U.S. Fifth Fleet is stationed, has generally nected and royal families caught stealing millions been ignored by the Western press. Yemen is a tin- while millions lose everything and unemployment derbox that keeps growing hotter with each new U.S. hits new highs across the eurozone. drone strike that wipes out “suspected militants,” “Czechs show scorn for political class” reads the farmers, wedding parties and other assorted victims headline of an article in the Financial Times, illus- of collateral damage. trated with a photo of a barge — sporting a sculpture The Iraq War, started in 2003 by the U.S., Brit- of a huge hand with the middle finger prominently ain and its “coalition of the willing” — under the raised — floating down the Vltava River to signify the pretense of the great lie that Saddam Hussein had people’s disgust for the ruling political parties. weapons of mass destruction — has devolved into The highly publicized protests of Ukrainian a bloody civil war with no end in sight. (See, “Doing demonstrators wanting to join the EU rather than The Iraq Drag,” Trends Journal, December 2004). strengthen ties with their Russian neighbor sim- And the never-ending Afghan War is now the mered after a deal was struck whereby Russia agreed longest in U.S. history. Having accomplished none to buy Ukrainian debt and slash the price Kiev pays of the goals set by Washington, the Pentagon and for its gas. But the calmness was short lived. As the NATO in 2001, when the U.S. invaded the sovereign new year unfolded, and Ukrainian leaders intro- nation, the ongoing occupation, and the death and duced new laws against public protest, the uprisings destruction it has wrought, has inflamed anti-Amer- turned more and more violent. The surging opposi- ican and anti-NATO hatred throughout the region. tion to the established power structure was taking (See “The 1st Great War of the 21st Century, Trends its toll. The Ukrainian prime minister resigned, the Journal, Spring 2011) parliament revoked the anti-democratic laws it just passed and Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych, UPRISINGS CONSUME THE GLOBAL LANDSCAPE claiming exhaustion, took sick leave. Meanwhile, Consider the massive ongoing street protests, Moscow was withholding its promised funds to bail strikes and acts of civil disobedience in Spain, Portu- out Ukraine, while the country teetered on civil war. gal, Italy, Greece and the Netherlands undertaken by Not making the news were the mass rallies of angry, austerity-ravaged citizens who want to break Bulgarians calling for their prime minister to resign,

We are confident in forecasting a turbulent 2014, equally infused with the potential for significant positive change and the possibility of utter social and economic misery.

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 15 top 2014 trends

Opposition protesters holding batons and makeshift shields march to guard Independence Square in central Kiev on January 30, 2014. A bill to amnesty arrested activists, passed by Ukraine’s parliament, gives protesters a 15- day deadline to leave occupied streets and ad- ministrative buildings. Photo by Sergei Supinsky/AFP/ Getty Images

nor reports of the tens of thousands of Romanians STAKES ARE HIGH IN THE PACIFIC marching against their government for striking a Across the Pacific, the deck is stacked with wild deal with oil giant Chevron, which they fear will rav- cards. The Korean Peninsula remains an explosive age the land. threat to the entire region. Cambodians by the tens In June, Brazil was hit by the largest protests in of thousands staged rallies against the three-decade- two decades as hundreds of thousands marched old ruling government and protested slave-labor against rising food and public transportation prices, working conditions. Thailand is on the brink of a government corruption, poor health services and civil war and/or a military coup as opposition parties higher taxes. As with other emerging markets, Brazil have divided the country and engulfed Bangkok. was a benefactor of the Fed’s loose money policies Relations between China, Japan, Vietnam and the that led to the nation being flooded with hot invest- Philippines have deteriorated over conflicting ter- ment money. As the Fed’s money flow slowed, so too ritorial claims in the East China and South China did Brazil’s economy. Hit by falling investment, by seas. This past December, tensions over the disputed year’s end the country suffered its worst performance islands escalated when China announced it had in five years. As the global economy further slows, so expanded its air defense identification zone (ADIZ). too will Brazil’s. The U.S., which said its security treaty with Japan As the economy declines, civil strife will escalate. warrants intervention, tested China’s resolve by And decline it will. Faced with rising inflation risks sending B-52 bombers into the zone. And Secretary and attempting to pump up its pummeled real, of State John Kerry immediately jetted to the Philip- which has fallen 7 percent since April, Brazil recently pines to close a $40 million “assistance” program to raised its key rate to 10.5 percent. As with other sell its government U.S. frigates and cut a deal that emerging markets in decline, the higher the rise in would allow more U.S. troops on Philippine soil and interest rates, the deeper the economies will sink. permit aircraft and ships to pass through as needed. Back in November, Argentina had its biggest anti- Having waged wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya government demonstration in a decade. Hundreds over the past decade — combined with foreign policy of thousands of Argentines marched in protest of initiatives that have helped destabilize and radicalize President Cristina Kirchner’s policies. A crashing the Middle East — the Obama administration’s new peso, decade high interest rates, rampant inflation “pivot to Asia” scheme will now entangle the U.S. (up some 25 percent this year), growing unemploy- in the simmering South East Asian battleground. ment, a weakening economy, widespread corruption Hillary Clinton, arguing for the “pivot” when she and attempts by Kirchner to amend the constitution was Secretary of State, declared: “The Asia-Pacific so she could run for a third term. With nothing but has become a key driver of global politics ... just as more of the same coming in 2014, expect an escala- our post-World War II commitment to building a tion of civil strife and social unrest to spread across comprehensive and lasting transatlantic network of the nation. institutions has paid off many time over…the time

16 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends has come for the United States to make similar investments as a Pacific power.” TRENDPOST For its part, it was Japan that had upped the ante in the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islets when, The global financial crisis lingers. Moving forward under the current systems and structures ensures that general economic conditions will continue to deteriorate, in September 2012, the government announced it the gap between rich and poor will widen, and the populism and class warfare had purchased three islets from a private owner and trends we’ve forecast will accelerate. had nationalized them. Moreover, Japan Prime Min- In 2014, a collective consciousness will firmly take root across the globe, one that ister Shinzo Abe had run on a platform to amend the fully recognizes the power structure for what it is and accepts the depth of change country’s constitution, which limits Japan’s military that must take place. to self-defense, to allow building more muscular armed services and give the military more freedom While the protests have been most apparent across of action. Abe also drafted a security plan that calls Europe and the Middle East, the underlying deter- for closer military ties with the U.S. to counterbal- minants of the unrest are global. And the U.S. is far ance China’s military expansion and “intrusions” into from immune. The Associated Press reported last waters around the disputed islands, and to counter August that, in what once was the most egalitarian North Korea’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile nation on earth, four out of five Americans face near- capabilities. poverty and no prospects for meaningful work. The In late December 2013, Prime Minister Abe’s visit cause of these trend lines “points to an increasingly to the Yasukuni Shrine that honors Japan’s war dead, globalized U.S. economy, the widening gap between including 14 high-ranking convicted WWII war crim- rich and poor, and the loss of good-paying manufac- inals, triggered strong protests from China, North turing jobs as the reason….” Korea, South Korea and other nations that had suf- It was a trend that was long in the making and one fered from Japan’s brutal wartime aggression. To that we had long predicted. But now it’s not only the keep the fires of hatred burning, on Jan. 1 of this year mainstream media reporting on this social tragedy, a Japanese cabinet member, Internal Affairs Minister so too is the Pope. Yoshitaka Shindo, paid a follow-up visit to the shrine On Christmas Day last year, Pope Francis attacked that victims of Tokyo’s wartime aggression consider a the global economic system as an “idolatry of money” symbol of Japanese militarism. and beseeched governments to guarantee its citizens Pope Francis deliver- Should a war break out in Asia involving China, “dignified work, education, and health care.” Pope ing his Christmas Day Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Taiwan and Francis condemned the mega-salaries and big bo- message on December 25, 2013 in Vatican America, it will truly be not only “the war to end all nuses of the one percent as symptoms of economies City, Vatican. In it, he wars,” but the war that will end life on the planet as based on greed and inequality. And he warned of the condemned the salaries we know it. rising risks of income disparity in both developed of the one percent, and warned of the risks of and emerging economies. income disparity. THE COMMON THREAD OF UNREST Yes, indeed, “When people lose everything, and Photo by Franco Origlia/ We can go on. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Is- they have nothing left to lose, they lose it.” TJ Getty Images rael, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Singapore, which has seen its first riots in 40 years, are included on the endless list of nations experiencing war, terror, economic turbulence or social unrest. But the story we would tell in each case is the same. Around the globe, growing class warfare and the backlash against oppressive political and governmental power are erupting. It is often linked to a specific issue or cir- cumstance, but at its core, the abuse of power that has left so many behind fuels the upheavals. The young, who are providing much of the energy behind these uprisings, are not likely to abate their efforts, particularly with about one quarter of the world’s youth without jobs or an education. They are restless, angry, without hope and thoroughly dis- trustful of the power structures that rule their lives.

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 17 TOP 2014 TRENDS Your medical data is a hot commodity Who’s mining your medical history and why By Bennett Davis CONTRIBUTING WRITER There’s a hot new commodity on the market: individuals’ medical records, available literally for pocket change. It’s not only legal, but it’s a thriving industry. In fact, McKinsey & Co. forecasts that the trade in tion for depression or your spouse’s hemorrhoid medical data will be a $10-billion annual industry by surgery? Mostly, public health agencies. 2020, driven largely by health agencies’ conversion In September 2012, the government of England to electronic medical records to save the cost, time threw open the archives of the National Health and space needed to manage and store paper. Service. Prime Minister David Cameron declared it Those who buy and sell the data claim that it’s “a waste” not to be mining the aggregated statistical been “anonymized” — stripped of all personal iden- data of health care records. In the U.S., states are tifying information, leaving only the medical details. exempt from the federal Health Information Privacy Your doctor isn’t the only person who sees But privacy hawks are demonstrating how easy it is and Accountability Act — HIPAA — passed in 1996. your medical records — to attach these anonymized case files to individuals Your doctor and insurance company are forbidden they’re likely resold to by name, using nothing more than a newspaper and to release your health records to the public, but insurance carriers, drug companies and hospital a few clicks of a computer mouse. states can and do: Arizona, New Jersey, New York, chains, among others. Who’s peddling the details of your hospitaliza- Tennessee and Washington are among the states paul_irish via flicker.com hawking their residents’ medical data. The National Association of Health Data Organizations reports that 37 states have mandated their health departments to scoop patient data from hospitals and 17 states collect case histories from physicians’ offices and clinics. Those who buy the data often resell it to third parties, typically after having collated, refined, organized, combined or otherwise added value to it. The motive is noble as well as practical. By selling the data to insurance carriers, drug companies, hospital chains and other private businesses, public agencies hope to improve care and trim costs. For example, if analysts show that 22 percent of Hospital One’s knee-replacement patients have post-oper- ative infections, but only 3 percent do at Hospital Two, then One can learn something from Two. Health care becomes more competitive. Patients are happier, insurance companies face fewer claims, and the cost of care goes down. The idea is proving its value. Utah has had one of the lowest rates of Cesarean births in the U.S., but researchers used aggregated case data to show that top 2014 trends

rural hospitals had four times the rate of C-sections Critics give her achievement a grudging than did urban care centers. Interviewing doctors nod but argue that Sweeney performed her feat taberandrew, flickr via photopin and administrators, state officials found that rural before HIPAA’s “safe harbor” standards took effect. obstetricians often lacked the expertise to handle These standards mandate that 17 unique identifiers, tricky deliveries, so Cesareans became a way to avoid from e-mail addresses to vehicle license plate num- risk. The problem: C-sections are more dangerous bers, be removed from individual medical records to mother and infant and can cost twice as much or before they’re released. A University of Chicago more as natural births. study found that when the safe harbor standards Now the state has built telecommunications links were observed, only two individuals could be identi- that allow rural hospitals to consult specialists in fied out of 15,000 separate medical records. large medical centers who guide them through But, in many cases, those standards have been difficult cases. As a result, the number of rural C- ignored. Exempted from HIPAA, most states at sections has fallen, as have costs, while patients’ sat- first observed less stringent rules — and there are isfaction with services has risen. still people like Sweeney, now director of Harvard University’s Data Privacy Lab, prowling through the PRIVACY VS. COST BENEFITS world of information. But these benefits come at the risk of losing per- In 2011, in a project for Bloomberg News, she sonal privacy. Latanya Sweeney, while a graduate scoured newspapers until she found the word “hos- student in computer science at Carnegie Mellon pitalized.” She opened the article and found the University, proved the point. name, age, and town of residence of a man involved In 1997, the Massachusetts Group Insurance in a motorcycle accident in Washington state. On Commission decided to make state employees’ hos- the Internet, she found his address and zip code. pitalization records available to researchers at no The data allowed her to match the accident victim’s charge. The commission required that, before being name to his medical record in an anonymized batch released, all personal identifiers be removed from that she’d bought for $50 from the state’s health de- the data. Personal privacy was preserved, the com- partment. In all, Sweeney was able to put names to mission declared. 35 of the 81 medical cases in the data set. She says the Sweeney wasn’t satisfied. She paid $20 for the sup- odds are strong that she can put a name to any medi- posedly anonymized data set, dug in, and produced cal record if she has a person’s name, zip code, and the individual medical record of William Weld, Mas- date of hospitalization; moreover, after sifting 1990’s sachusetts’ governor at the time, who recently had census data, she claimed that 87.1 percent of U.S. res- been hospitalized after collapsing at a public event. idents can be identified by a determined snoop using The record she retrieved even included his diagnosis only a person’s zip code, birth date and gender. and prescriptions. Graciously, she didn’t release the Denise Love, executive director of the National As- records publicly but simply gave them to the gover- sociation of Health Data Organizations, points out nor to emphasize how thoroughly the commission’s that Washington state stiffened its privacy controls vaunted privacy protections had failed. after the incident and that virtually every state now

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 19 labeltop 2014 trends Obamacare: How secure is your medical information? The millions of new users flocking to state and federal health exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act “could mean bigger data breaches with bigger lawsuits, fines and financial losses,” worries Experian, a giant in the data privacy business. Could, yes — but how great is the risk? Fears were worsened last November when a insurance exchange with “a level of uncertainty ... Congressional hearing revealed that an internal deemed as a high [security] risk.” The center’s chief memo within the Center for Medicare and Medicaid information security officer approved the waiver, Services noted that “the [security] threat …is limit- even though three of her colleagues objected in a less” from undisclosed features of the Obamacare written statement, saying that the agency’s mitiga- website’s information-handling infrastructure. tion steps — including a dedicated security patrol More troublesome, the memo didn’t make its way to and frequent testing — wouldn’t reduce the risk. Henry Chao, the center’s deputy chief information But what is the risk? The state and federal health officer, an omission that fanned fears of a cover-up. exchanges themselves aren’t new databases; they Ignorant of the memo, Chao certified the website’s don’t store data or ask for personal medical informa- security as part of its ill-fated October debut. When tion. They gather data from people signing up for confronted with the memo, Chao hinted that he health insurance — income levels, Social Security might not have certified the website as ready for numbers, and other identifiers — and then electron- launch if he’d seen the memo. ically verify the information with the relevant fed- Another of the center’s internal memos shows eral agency. Once the data has been verified and the that it gave itself a waiver to open the federal health person’s health insurance account has been created, the data is expunged from the exchanges’ records. As part of the federal website’s reinvention, security risks have been tamed, according to the website’s administrators. George Smith, a well-known international consultant on cybersecurity and senior fellow at GlobalSecurity.org, notes that the exchange’s data is handled using the same protocols that other government websites and databases use to ensure security. Scott Borg, CEO of the private, nonprofit U.S. Cyber Consequences Unit, which an- alyzes and advises on data security, says that health exchange websites are less complicated than most e-commerce sites, which makes them easier to keep secure. Still, on the Internet, security is measured against the last hack attack, not the next one. To ensure data privacy in the age of Obamacare, Experian suggests that any organization handling individuals’ health care data redouble its security vigilance, Dailem Delombard handed over personal train staff to handle data securely, and have detailed information as she signed up for health insurance emergency plans in place to deal with breaches. But on an exchange in Florida. While health exchanges nothing replaces the individual responsibility that don’t store personal data after an account is created each of us has to follow precautions in revealing our and verified, individuals using them should follow sensible precautions. medical or personal details to anyone — even, or Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images especially, government agencies. TJ

20 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends either complies with HIPAA’s safe harbor rules or has number of times a data set could be sold, and recom- instituted their own, more stringent policies. “But mend buyers be banned from re-selling data to third those in our industry are never comfortable with parties; private encryption schemes could be shared the privacy protections we have,” she adds. “We’re between buyer and seller but not others; and harsh always looking for something better.” sanctions might be imposed on hackers and “re-identifiers.” Sweeney has designed a mathematical com- NO STOPPING THE DATA TRAIN puter algorithm she’s dubbed “k-anonymity” that This tension between personal privacy and the flummoxes would-be re-identifiers without compro- relentless hunger for medical data can’t be resolved: mising the usefulness of the data to researchers. the bits of data essential to researchers are the same But neither technology nor other humans can data that allow peepers to find us. However, that guarantee the privacy of your medical history. The tension can be eased. best advice: if you see a doctor or enter a hospital, Some argue for controls that would limit the guard your medical data like you guard your credit amount of data any single entity could possess or the cards. TJ

HOW CAN YOU PROTECT YOUR MEDICAL PRIVACY?

The Health Information Privacy and Accountability Act of 2003 – HIPAA – offers basic, but not complete, protection of your medical records. Take these extra steps to ensure you’re shielding your medical records from thieves and peepers.

 Under HIPAA, your health care provider  Don’t fill out surveys or questionnaires that are indispensable to the case and, after can share your medical records. Give your that ask for personal medical information in the proceeding is over, ask the judge to seal provider a written statement that revokes exchange for entering you in a contest or re- the case’s records or, at least, the portion that permission to share your records without your warding you with coupons or discounts. includes your medical details. written consent.  The Internet is the Wild West of informa-  If your employer offers an employee health  Ask your provider how photocopies of your tion-sharing. If you take part in medically- or wellness plan, find out if your records will be records are handled. Records sometimes are related chat rooms or sites that ask for your stored with an outside business or become part copied more times than are needed and the personal data, check the site’s privacy policy. of your personnel file. If so, ask for a written extras may be put into the wastebasket instead Even if you use a pseudonym in chats, your copy of the privacy policy that governs the use of going straight to the shredder. personal information can be matched to your of the records.  Cordless and cell phones are less secure computer’s Internet address. Before sharing  Avoid genetic testing if at all possible. If than landlines, and fax transmissions aren’t personal information on a health website, find you decide to be tested, get a written statement secure at all. Find out your provider’s policy out if it participates in a web seal program about who will have access to the test results about how records are shared with consulting such as TRUSTe, HON, or URAC Health and how they’ll be stored and by whom. Website Accreditation. If you’re not convinced specialists and others involved in your care.  By law, your medical records are your that the site can guarantee the confidentiality  If you work for a business that’s self- property. Keep a copy of your medical history of your identity and medical details, leave. insured, the company’s human resources in case your care provider goes out of business.  If your health care provider retires, merges department is likely to have copies of medical  If your information has been breached or with another practice, or goes out of business, records. Find out how these records are stored stolen: find out how your records will be treated and and handled, and deliver a written statement — Contact the credit bureaus and check where they’ll be stored. If a business goes bank- to the department that you hold the company, your credit report at www.freecreditreport. rupt, its database of patient information can the department and its manager personally com. You’re entitled to one free copy of responsible for the security of your records. Ask become an asset for sale. File written state- your report each year. the manager to countersign the statement to ments with archival sites that you will hold — Contact your health insurance carrier, show that it was received. them personally responsible for your records’ health care provider, and any hospital that  Be skeptical about taking part in publicly- security. If you can’t get a countersignature on has records of you and tell them that your offered health screenings in shopping malls or your statement, send it by registered mail so medical information has been rifled or getting flu shots at a drug store. Ask what use you have proof of delivery. stolen. will be made of any of your medical informa-  If your medical records are subpoenaed as — File a police report. tion. If you’re not given the opportunity to part of a legal proceeding, they become part — Finally, file an incident report at www. forbid your personal information from being of the public record. Ask the judge involved to ftc.gov. This is additional insurance that shared, don’t give any. only open the portions of your medical record your case has been reported. Do you have other ideas? Tell us at [email protected].

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 21 TOP 2014 TRENDS Populism is powerful and growing — but it’s not everywhere The U.S. is too passive and controlled to take part in this global trend

By Gerald Celente PUBLISHER Your life is storybook-perfect. Contentment nourishes your soul and permeates the world around you. You love your job. You earn more money than you ever imagined possible and have accumulated more wealth than you’ll ever need. You have the perfect family, too. The ties that bind you and your spouse are as romantically strong as when you first met. And your children are special; in fact, they are amazing. Not only are they perfect students, they take your advice and obey your every command. You live in a nation that is a picture-perfect ex- But suppose you don’t live in dreamland. Sup- ample of a true democracy. Your elected officials pose you hate your job, despise your boss and can’t possess advanced intellectual skills and are of the stand your coworkers. You’re doing the work of two highest moral standing. Beyond reproach, these or three people because of all the layoffs. And the men and women pledge allegiance to “We the peo- pay stinks. You can’t save a dime or even make ends ple” and not to special interests. In practice, they are meet. You stay in the job primarily for medical cov- the dedicated public servants they said they would erage and other safeguards, but thanks to new gov- be when they campaigned and ultimately got your ernment laws, mergers/acquisitions and benefit cuts, vote. The policy decisions they make on behalf of you’ve lost those too. Not only that, your marriage is the citizenry have created freedom, peace, prosper- on the rocks. Your kids — victims of a troubled, dys- ity, liberté, egalité and fraternité. functional household and a long-failing educational Congratulations. Dreamland is everything you system — don’t listen to a word you say, think you’re expected. a loser. They’re heading for certain failure.

Getty Images by (from left): Rufux Cox; Dieter Nagl/AFP; Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert; and Arvind Yadav/Hindustan Times Populism around the world: Anti-government protesters in Bangkok, Thailand (above left); Austrian Freedom party followers (center left); supporters of Scottish secession (center right); and Aam Aadmi party members in India (above right)

22 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends Populism is powerful and growing — but it’s not everywhere The U.S. is too passive and controlled to take part in this global trend

Suppose you live in a country that is a democracy the business that had been in the family for three gen- in name only. Your elected officials are consistently erations. When the Panic of ’08 hit and the banks that and overwhelmingly incompetent. Some are even caused the crisis were in trouble, the government said sociopaths or psychopaths. Though they are shrewd they were “too big to fail” and stole your money to bail operators and master- them out. As economic ful manipulators, they conditions deteriorated are petty, small-minded To those in power, and tax bases shrank as intellectual lightweights populism is a wrecking ball a result of lost jobs and and morally corrupt. declining commerce, Their primary interests aimed at destroying the government raised are the special interests your taxes, cut services, and money powers that ruling parties closed hospitals, raised paid and paved their and the ruling class. the retirement age, way into office. They lie, eliminated social safety cheat, steal and kill in nets and redirected the name of justice and national security to further public funds to favor financial sector interests. They personal aims and enrich those who enrich them at even sold off valuable public assets under the guise the expense of the public and the future of the na- of “privatization.” tion. You lost the job you had for 20 years. Your pen- SEARCHING FOR A WAY OUT sion was stolen. You have no benefits and no savings. Realizing that continuing on this path without Your closest family members are deep in debt: Unable taking steps to dramatically alter prevailing condi- to compete with predatory multinationals, they lost tions will only lead to greater personal loss and

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 23 top 2014 trends

Minister Enrico Letta.” “To fight against populism, TRENDPOST in my view, is a mission today — in Italy and in the other countries.” While there may be “growing populism” among voters in the U.S., compared to Europe, India, Thai- MANY FORMS, ONE PURPOSE land and other nations where it is surging, populism Derided by the press as a eurosceptic, Marine Le is not a significant trend. Pen, leader of France’s National Front, has promised Whenever the seeds of an uprising have taken a “massive breakthrough” by a surge of national par- root in the U.S., the public face of protest has been ties spreading across the continent that “will block quickly and skillfully controlled by law enforcement. by all means, to the maximum, anything that con- Look no further than the “Occupy” movement tributes to the transfer of powers from our people to protesters for proof. Eventually, the promise of the movement was reduced to images of a few hundred the European Union.” Le Pen’s mission? “I am only weathered protesters occupying soggy, dirty tents in looking for one thing from the European Union, and public squares while armed law enforcement officers that is that it explode.” stood guard. The movements, too numerous fully list here, Considering the monopoly the two-party sys- include the Dutch Party for Freedom, Hungary’s tem has over “the land of the free and home of Jobbi, Great Britain’s UKIP, Golden Dawn in Greece, the brave,” a true rise of populism in the U.S. is the Danish People’s Party, the Finns Party, Austria’s predicated on the true rise of a new political party Freedom Party, the Flemish Vlaams Belang, the or well-defined social movement that takes direct Italian Lega Nord, the Sweden Democrats, the Slo- aim at challenging the legacy corruption and in- vak National Party, and secessionists movements competence that have so masterfully cemented the in Scotland and Catalonia. In terms of political or self-serving bond between government and the cor- social ideology, the movements include right-wing, porate world. That one-percent echelon we hear so left-wing, anti-immigration, anti-Semitic, anti-Mus- much about includes both. lim, neo-Nazi, and neo-Fascist positions. Yet all have We don’t see populism as a powerful 2014 trend in the U.S., but across the globe these movements been built on the same foundation: The principles of will become even more powerful, well-defined and populism. effective. Populism is a megatrend that is now only in its early growth stage. To those in power, populism is a societal degradation, you, and millions like you, wrecking ball aimed at destroying ruling parties and young and old, take to the streets to protest the the ruling class. For those who are out of work or endemic corruption and government oppression. underpaid; over-taxed or deep in debt; seeing their The police, rather than serve and protect the pub- homes in foreclosure or living in a community with lic, beat up protestors and, in the process, serve boarded up factories, populism is regarded as a great and protect politicians, government institutions salvation. They face a bleak future. They are tired of and multinational interests. Governments, bent being oppressed by police and forced to follow the on restraining your voice (such as in Spain and letter of the law while banking bandits and political elsewhere), pass new laws restricting public dem- wiseguys literally and figuratively get away with pil- onstrations and impose police-state measures to lage and plunder. “All go home!,” (the entire govern- stamp out dissent. ment must resign!) is the chant of Italy’s Pitchfork What term or definition should we use to refer protestors, a chant that started with the struggling to citizens taking decisive measures to resist being farmers of Sicily and can now be heard throughout corralled in a globalized and multinational country the country. whose laws and regulations are conceived, imposed These populist movements have not only swept and enforced by outside powers? How should we across Europe, they are spreading across the globe. label a movement meant to preserve autonomy, Though taking various forms, they are all commit- national identity, cultural heritage, monetary sover- ted to bringing down those in power. In India, for eignty, peace and prosperity? example, the recently formed Aam Aadmi (Common The media and politicians call it “Populism” and, Man) party, which ran on an anti-corruption plat- for the most part, they mean the term to be pejora- form, has scored a stunning victory in state assembly tive. “The rise of populism is today the main Euro- elections in New Delhi. In Thailand, a self-styled pean social and political issue,” cried Italian Prime “people’s uprising” against the ruling government,

24 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends which protestors say has subverted democracy, has pushed southeast Asia’s second largest economy into Democrats Turn to Minimum Wage as 2014 Strategy turmoil. WASHINGTON — Democratic Party leaders, bruised by months of attacks on the new health care program, have found an issue they believe can lift their fortunes both locally and nationally in 2014: an increase in the minimum wage. U.S. SITS BY IDLE The effort to take advantage of growing populism among voters in both parties Meanwhile, back in the U.S., where political dis- is being coordinated by officials from the White House, labor unions and liberal sent is muted — and massive street protests, though advocacy groups. In a series of strategy meetings and conference calls among them in recent permitted in theory are essentially forbidden in weeks, they have focused on two levels: an effort to raise the federal minimum practice — populism has been watered down to re- wage, which will be pushed by President Obama and congressional leaders, and flect the passive state of the nation. a campaign to place state-level minimum wage proposals on the ballot in states There is no real emergence here of the powerful with hotly contested congressional races. After being battered for nearly two months on the problems with Mr. Obama’s collective movements we see developing in other signature health law, Democrats see the minimum-wage increase as a way to shift parts of the world. For now, a few meaningless po- the political conversation back to their preferred terms. litical bonbons thrown at the suffering working class The New York Times, 29 December 2013 appear to be enough to cushion the establishment sectors from the ire of the masses. Political babel acknowledging the fast-expanding gap between the Thus, playing to populism has become a mere haves and have-nots, leads many to think the issue political ploy to distract voters from the calamitous is gaining traction. And legislative proposals to Obamacare health law, while implying that an in- raise the minimum wage further reinforce crease of the minimum wage will lead to economic that illusory comfort zone. salvation. TJ

Joe D/A Brand New Minneapolis via Flickr Don’t look for crowds of protesters in the U.S. — although we may put up signs in our yards.

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 25 TOP 2014 TRENDS The haves and have-nots: Trouble in Slavelandia Minimum wage increase will do little to reverse hardening trend

By Alex Silberman SENIOR EDITOR Welcome to the world of Income Inequality. Today the phrase seems to be on everyone’s lips — Democrats, Republicans, conservatives and radicals, millionaires, billionaires, the broadcast talking heads — and all over your browser and Twitter feed. President Obama has proclaimed Income Inequality “the defining challenge of our time,” and made it clear that Democrats will use it as a political centerpiece in midterm elections. Republicans are scrambling to come up with a vote- saving position that doesn’t betray their hard-on-the-poor principles. And everyone is tossing around putative solutions to Income Inequality that have little probability of anything other than short-term success. Of course, Income Inequality isn’t “news” to the children, hoping for a better day that may never nearly one in five American households that are come. The employment outlook for college grads continuing to have difficulty meeting their basic has actually been in decline since 2000, even before needs, are unable to cover their rent or mortgage, are our latest recession. having their phone or utilities cut off, are dealing with Income Inequality is also not news among the aftermath of eviction, are doing without a doctor the ranks of the middle-aged, those who are or dentist, and are going hungry. It isn’t news to the underemployed, unemployed or who’ve opted approximately one in four workers who are pulling out of the fruitless search for a job. It’s not news down less than $10 an hour. for the 8 million denizens of Slavelandia who are Income Inequality isn’t “news” for the 43 percent working part-time because they can’t find a full- of 25-year-old Americans paying off an average time job. student debt of more than $20,000 while working, It’s not news for the older workers who will or hoping to work, at a lower wage than they had be delaying retirement because lower wages, imagined possible when they signed their student unemployment, disappearing pensions and reduced loan papers. According to a study by the Federal investment returns have depleted their nest eggs. In Reserve Bank of New York, 44 percent of recent 2012, 26.8 percent of seniors aged 65–74 were in the college graduates are “underemployed,” holding workforce, an increase of 30 percent over 2002. The down jobs that don’t require a college degree. Many Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that number of these taxi drivers (15 percent of taxi drivers are will go up another 18 percent by 2022, when close to grads), baristas, waiters and retail clerks are living at a third of seniors will still be toting that barge and home with their parents, putting off marriage and lifting that bale.

Today, the portion of the nation’s GDP going to workers as wages and salaries is at an all-time low while corporate profits are at a record high.

26 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 illustration by Anthony Freda top 2014 trends

Steve Rhodes/Flickr via photopin Protesters for higher wages in Oakland, Calif., in October 2013. TRENDPOST Those seeking political advantage by directing attention at Income heights, this vital element of our institutions and our way of life is Inequality are likely to face unintended consequences. It is one thing to eroding.” struggle for survival, suspecting the game is rigged, and quite another In 1933, in a statement regarding the National Industrial Recovery to have your face rubbed in it. Even the least politically aware citizens Act, FDR said, “It seems to me to be equally plain that no business will come to understand that it’s not just their problem, a result of bad which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its luck, or not enough education. workers has any right to continue in this country.” If, as seems likely, As Joseph E. Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize winning economist wrote in wages don’t rise sufficiently, and sufficiently fast, to allow a greater a recent NYT op-ed, “… trust is becoming yet another casualty of proportion of Americans to enjoy a safe, decent standard of living, we our country’s staggering inequality: As the gap between Americans may witness a growing number of workers sharing FDR’s sentiment. widens, the bonds that hold society together weaken. So, too, as The resulting trouble in Slavelandia may take many forms, some of more and more people lose faith in a system that seems inexorably them far more disruptive to business as usual than last year’s brief job stacked against them, and the 1 percent ascend to ever more distant actions by fast food workers.

WORKING FOR THE MAN A further boost to the American workers’ The US economy grew by more than 18 percent downward mobility derives from the fact that between 2000 and 2011, yet the median income of in 2011, after a decade of shrinkage in the working families fell 12.4 percent. Workers are no manufacturing sector, the number of workers in longer sharing in the economic prosperity of their the retail sector — home of the McMinimum employers: Today, in Slavelandia, the portion of wage — topped the number of workers in the nation’s GDP going to workers as wages and manufacturing for the first time. According to a salaries — 42.6 percent — is at an all-time low while 2012 National Employment Law Project study, 21 corporate profits are at a record high. percent of the jobs lost during the recession were

28 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends low-wage jobs, but more than half of the jobs in the majority of cities and an average of 22 percent created in its wake pay low wages. Similarly, about of homeless persons needing assistance did not 60 percent of the jobs lost were middle-income receive it. It’s worth noting that the report found 19 jobs, but just 22 percent of new post-recession jobs percent of homeless adults were employed. pay that well. Education initiatives and skills development This will come as no surprise when you consider are likely to get significant bipartisan support as a that the three largest U.S. public-sector employers seemingly logical and noncontroversial approach in 1960 were General Motors, Ford and AT&T, to easing unemployment and lifting low-wage two manufacturers and a utility that paid their earners higher up the income ladder. Certainly, employees a living wage. Today’s employment some individuals will benefit, but education alone leaders are Wal-Mart, Yum! Brands (owner of Taco will have little impact on the employment picture as Bell, Pizza Hut and Kentucky Fried Chicken) and a whole. A recent paper published by the National McDonalds, who provide their employees advice on Bureau of Economic Research (by a former chair of how to survive on starvation wages. the Council of Economic Advisors and the Principal Economist of the U.S. Census Bureau) posits, IT’S NOT GETTING BETTER ANYTIME SOON “Neither industrial nor demographic shifts nor a The proposals for ways to fix Income Inequality mismatch of skills with job vacancies is behind the and its effects on the fabric of American life have increased rates of unemployment.” begun to multiply and are, as you might imagine, This finding is in keeping with the projections of replete with partisan positioning. Raising the the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a December, 2013 minimum wage is one move that is drawing a great article frighteningly titled, “The U.S. economy to deal of attention, though there isn’t unanimity 2022: settling into a new normal.” Most new jobs among economists, much less lawmakers, that it’s from 2012 to 2022, according to its figures, will not a true fix. But the issue carries a lot of moral weight require a college degree. About 8.8 million new and touches citizens at the level of simple fairness. jobs will require a high school diploma or less. Only Labor Department statistics put the number of about 3.1 million new jobs are projected to be in workers earning at or below minimum wage at occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree for entry. about 5 percent. But, since the minimum wage As better-educated or higher-skilled workers are serves as a pay marker, as many as 35 million workers forced to accept lower-level jobs, they send lower- earning near the minimum stand to benefit. skilled workers even further down the occupational Whether a raise in the minimum wage will make ladder. TJ a significant difference in the long run remains to be seen. In the short run, perhaps for the next decade, a raise is vital to minimize the hardships of the working poor. Between Washington’s dogma-driven benefit cuts, reduced funding for assistance programs at the state and local levels and continued high unemployment, America’s safety net will be stretched to the breaking point and beyond. At the December, 2013 meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, a nationwide increase in requests for emergency food and shelter assistance was reported, and even greater demand is expected in the years ahead. Last year, emergency kitchens and food pantries were forced to reduce the quantity of food doled out at each pantry visit or offered in meals served at kitchens. More than three-fourths of the cities had to reduce the number of times an individual or family could visit a food pantry each month. Two-thirds of the cities’ facilities had to John Moore/Getty Images Needy residents receive free groceries from a food pantry in New York City. turn people away because of lack of resources. In Demand increased when 47 million low-income people nationwide saw their addition, the number of requests for shelter was up food stamps cut as the federal SNAP program expired.

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 29 TOP 2014 TRENDS Shape of the future: Global Chinatown Chinese investment comes in all sizes, shapes and dollar amounts By Gerald Celente PUBLISHER Not too long ago, the 20th century was called “The American Century.” Not only was Uncle Sam the world’s military superpower from the end of World War II through the next several decades, he was an unstoppable economic heavyweight. But after years of squandering the nation’s precious human, scientific, technological and economic resources on waging costly, never- ending wars — Cold War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Afghan War, Iraq War and The War on Terror — Uncle Sam has lost his edge. Indeed, President This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under Dwight D. Eisenhower, the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging a former Five-Star Gen- from a cross of iron eral and Supreme Allied Many heard Eisenhower’s “Cross of Iron” speech Commander during in 1953, but few listened. This was no “pinko- World War II, warned commie,” the label attached to anyone at that time American citizens of the who believed the military was getting too powerful consequences of spend- and spending too much. “Ike,” who would serve ing vast sums of money two terms as a Republican president, knew what it on the military rather looked like on the battlefield. than directing it to society: THE ROOTS OF MILITARY OVERSPENDING Every gun that is made, Then, in his famous farewell address in 1960, every warship launched, Eisenhower told Americans that the military had every rocket fired signifies, taken over the nation. “The military-industrial- in the final sense, a theft complex would cause military spending to be driven from those who hunger not by national security needs but by a network of and are not fed, those weapons makers, lobbyists and elected officials,” he who are cold and are warned. not clothed. This world It was a coup d’ état; a military takeover. And after President Dwight D. in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the Ike left office, lobbyists and elected officials contin- Eisenhower, in 1954. sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes ued to sell out the nation not only to defense con- Photo by New York Times via tractors, but to the highest bidders. Breaking down Library of Congress of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is barriers in the name of “free trade,” they exported two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 American jobs and technology to countries where population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. labor was cheap. While enriching the multination- We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that als, the policies dramatically drove down wages and could have housed more than 8,000 people. It is some the standard of living for what used to be called “the 50 miles of concrete highway. We pay for a single fighter great middle class.” And to help further widen the with a half million bushels of wheat. wage gap between the classes, lobbyists and elected

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illustration by Daniel J. Zollinger officials repealed acts and gutted laws that were put Moreover, when it comes to the world’s largest in place at the onset of “The American Century” to trading nation, China, with annual trade in goods prevent robber barons and Wall Street sharks from above $4 trillion, has now overtaken the U.S. stealing the nation’s wealth. When Eisenhower left office, the U.S.’s GDP stood CHINESE SET GLOBAL SIGHTS at $520.5 billion. Trailing far behind, the United With plenty of cash, the value of its currency Kingdom ranked 2nd at $72.2 billion, France, at $62.6 rising, and a GDP still growing at 7.5 percent, the billion, was third, followed by China at $61.3 billion, Chinese will be buying up valuable assets around the according to the World Bank. world while the U.S. keeps spending on foreign en- In 2012, while the U.S. still tops the list at $15.6 tanglements, a global War on Terror and funneling trillion, China, in second place, reports its GDP trillions into Wall Street in the name of “stimulus” at $8.52 trillion. And while the U.S.’s national debt and quantitative easing. today stands at $17.3 trillion (compared to China’s In 2014, America has become the “paper tiger” $2.4 trillion), China, unlike the U.S., is holding $3.7 that Mao Zedong had predicted. “In appearance it trillion in foreign exchange reserves. Over the past [America] is very powerful,” Mao said in 1956, “but year, its yuan rose 2.9 percent over the dollar and is in reality it is nothing to be afraid of; it is a paper expected to rise another 3 percent against the green- tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable back in 2014. Taking inflation into account, the yuan to withstand the wind and the rain. I believe that rose nearly 19 percent against the dollar since 2010. [America] is nothing but a paper tiger … all reaction- Thus, their stronger yuan buys more assets with less aries are paper tigers — superficially powerful but money. prone to over extension leading to sudden collapse.”

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Top: A dump truck is loaded with ore in the open-pit mine at the Norton Gold Fields Ltd. Enterprise in Australia. Norton is controlled six countries, including South Korea and Australia, is by China’s Zijin Mining Group Co. a major partner in Brooklyn’s $5 billion Atlantic Yard Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg via apartment project, which will be the single-largest Getty Images real estate project in New York in decades. At right: Pregnant sows are housed in group AMBITIOUS INVESTMENTS IN U.S. pens at a farm near Mil- There’s no mistaking it, the Chinese are on a ford, Utah. Shuanghui International Holdings buying binge. In the U.S., for example, the rate Limited bought the of investment by Chinese investors is skyrocket- world’s largest pork ing. The examples are many and telling, including: producer in 2013 for $4.7 billion. landmark properties and residential real estate in Smithfield Foods via Flickr decaying Detroit; restaurant complexes, plants and higher-education institutions in Toledo; big oil deals in Oklahoma; a new textile plant in South Carolina; a proposal to buy up to 600 acres in New York’s Borscht Belt to build “China City,” complete with an education center, 36 dorms with 2,456 units, more than 100 units of housing, a sports arena, performance center and museum; and trophy purchases of One Chase Manhattan Plaza and a 20 percent stake in the General Motors building in New York City. Already owning AMC theatres and IBM’s PC business, in 2013, Chinese investors bought out U.S.- based Smithfield, the world’s largest pork producer, for $4.7 billion. According to private equity fund A Capital, Chinese investors put $24.7 billion into Above: In 2012, AMC Leading investment targets for Chinese investors mergers and acquisitions in all of North America in Theatres, which has are countries where there are already a lot of Chi- the just first three-quarters of last year. more than 300 locations in the U.S., was acquired nese people, such as New Zealand, Japan, Australia, by Beijing-based Wanda Singapore, Malaysia Canada and the U.S. NOT JUST COMMERCIAL OR RESIDENTIAL Group, a privately held “We go where the people go,” proclaimed Yu Hungry for metals and minerals to feed its industry entertainment conglom- Liang, President of Vanke, China’s biggest real estate and fuel the nation, Chinese companies have been erate. company. He recently bought a 70-percent stake in a buying up mines and mineral rights from Sierra AMC major development on Folsom Street, San Francisco, Leone to Australia, and from Canada to Peru. And from real estate developer Tishman Speyer. Else- with 1.3 billion people devouring about 20 percent where, China’s Greenland Group, which has entered of the world’s food — and not enough farms to feed

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TRENDPOST Flush with cash and building its military strength, China 2014 is Chinese families are moving out of their overpopulated, polluted and not the Japan of 30-plus years ago. There are no comparisons between politically restrictive homeland and spreading their roots around the the Chinese businesses buying up worldwide assets today and Japan’s world. So, too, are its college grads who can’t find jobs at home, won’t flash-in-the-pan meteoric economic rise and fall of the 1980s. As the work in factories and are searching the world to find their fortune. world’s number two economy, and growing, China will continue to Trends are born, they grow, mature, reach old age and then die. The purchase valuable assets and precious resources worldwide, while China buying spree is still in its early growth stage. Entrepreneurs, Japan ramps up spending on its war machine and America continues cities, communities, investors, real estate agents and businesses of all to waste its dwindling resources on fighting wars and on military shapes and sizes would do well to contact Chinese consulates, make hardware. connections with local Chinese businesses, and join appropriate pro- And unlike the Japanese three decades ago, the Chinese are not fessional/trade associations to learn more about Chinese investment only investing in real estate, they are occupying it. Chinese firms and needs and expectations, and how they can best be filled. them — the Chinese are buying up and leasing out dium-sized developers has been formed to invest in thousands of square miles of fertile land. the U.S. real estate market, indicating Chinese devel- In 2013, some of the bigger deals included leasing opers’ growing interest in expanding overseas. 7.4 million acres of Ukrainian farmland for the next “Around one to two deals are expected to close 50 years, and roughly 9 percent of arable land in the soon. We may raise more money after the Spring U.K. Chinese connoisseurs will be washing down Festival,” said Gong Yi, director of China Real Estate their meals with some of the most cherished French Chamber of Commerce. Bordeaux’s direct from the scores of French chateaus The fund is initiated by the US-China Real Estate bought by Chinese investors in the past few years. Investment Center, which is affiliated to China Real The year ahead will also see a growing number of Estate Chamber of Commerce. smaller investor groups form to manage investments “Investment return is not the investors’ major con- that often don’t get the attention of the larger, more cern,” Gong said. “They just want to diversify their transformative deals that are routinely reported in business portfolios, given increasing uncertainties the mainstream media. in the home market.” (China Daily USA, December 4, A $100 million fund by China’s small- and me- 2013) TJ

A developer has proposed a $6 billion China-themed development in New York’s Borscht Belt, complete with massive dorms and other housing, a sports arena, performance center and museum, all intended to house new and prosperous Chinese immigrants. China City via townofthompson.com

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 33 TOP 2014 TRENDS The rise of the Boomer Renaissance The need to express creativity while doing good leads to promising “encores” later in life

By Derek Osenenko CONTRIBUTING WRITER You already know that a number of economic dynamics are forcing aging boomers to entirely rethink retirement and stay in the workforce far longer than they had expected to. And, of course, you know that our longer lifespans have all but obliterated traditional thinking about when it’s time to call it quits. But what is less apparent is the way these trend vival and self-actualization into a new world- and self- lines, coupled with powerful cultural, social and psy- view. The signs won’t be immediately apparent; they chological determinants, are fundamentally altering will come in subtle waves. But as 2014 unfolds, the the way older people define and approach work. transition to an entrepreneurial-based environment Aging boomers are now exploring creative and self- for older workers, something that has been steadily driven ways to redirect their work lives, tapping into building over recent years, comes into full force. a rich reservoir of possibilities made attractive and By no means does this evolving trend minimize compelling by need. the challenges boomers around the globe will face. In 2014, we will see growing evidence of the result- As the Associated Press reported at the end of 2013: ing Boomer Renaissance in the form of self-guided A global retirement crisis is bearing down on workers entrepreneurship that will alchemize commerce, sur- of all ages...Spawned years before the Great Recession

James Glay, of Arlington Heights, Ill, was laid off from his job in sales, and had trouble finding a new position. He drew on his love of vintage drums to open his own business selling them. AP Photo/M. Spencer Green

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TRENDPOST ••Outsourcing for boomers: The extended work force is here to as such, artists’ co-ops and related organizations are finding it fruitful stay. Freelancing is expected to grow sharply in the immediate years to form creative coalitions to allow groups of artists and craftsmen to ahead. Opportunities are ripe for boomers, including writers, artists, sell handmade products from one location — neighborhoods, reno- information technology experts, market analysts, educators and finan- vated old warehouses, indoor/outdoor flea markets, etc. These move- cial experts. More and more boomers will enter this arena. ments are becoming more sophisticated and are gaining the support ••Community causes: Community causes that are supported by of local municipalities — including funding, tax breaks, work space — organized groups, foundations and events have become increasingly because they drive income for the community at large. Boomers feed sophisticated and larger in scope. In fact, there are a growing number this trend from both ends — as sellers and buyers. of spin-off businesses that have become important drivers of tourism ••Service/product hot sectors: A 2009 Pew Research Center and sales tax income for municipalities. Having the business, creative Study found that aging boomers have their own concept of when old or life experience to managing these enterprises, boomers will find sat- age actually begins — at 72, not 65. This being the case, sustaining a isfaction in forming small businesses or not-for-profit operations that lifestyle that promotes healthy living and slows aging is of paramount are cause-driven. importance to them. They are more conscious about the product/ ••Small business retail: Small cities and towns across the globe, in service trends that make life more fulfilling in later years. This, too, is a long-evolving movement to promote locally-made products and ser- a trend that appeals to boomers who are looking to buy the product vices, have created durable niches for local craftspeople. From furniture or service, and who are providers of that product or service. Farm-to- makers to pottery and jewelry makers, boomers tend to trust “local” table, health care, green living, senior care services, travel planning and products more than other age groups. They highly value quality. And, leisure activities for the aging are growth areas. and the 2008 financial meltdown, the crisis was signifi- pared to a 6.7 percent decrease for 20- to 24-year- cantly worsened by those twin traumas. It will play out olds. And while 62 percent of the 20- to 54-year-olds for decades, and its consequences will be far-reaching. who lost jobs have been reemployed, only 47 percent Many people will be forced to work well past the of those 55- to 64-years-old have made it back into traditional retirement age of 65. Living standards will the workforce. For workers over 65, a growing breed, fall and poverty rates will rise for the elderly in wealthy the situation is dire: only 24 percent of that age countries that built safety nets for seniors after World group is drawing a paycheck again. War II. In developing countries, people’s rising expecta- A number of myths regarding the performance of tions will be frustrated if governments can’t afford retire- older workers and their suitability for the modern ment systems to replace the tradition of children caring workforce contribute to age bias, on both institution- for aging parents. alized and subconscious levels. Older workers, the But for a growing number of people in their 50s, myths contend, are set in their ways, technophobic, 60s and older, the pending crisis is not only breath- unexcited about challenges, too expensive, etc. Yet, ing new life into their efforts to survive, but allowing a growing body of scientific studies — psychological them to do so with a greater sense of purpose and and biological — indicates that, as people age, their fulfillment. capacity to innovate, create and productively channel life experiences are all enhanced. Studies analyzing WHY NOW? the correlation between creativity and aging have The U.S. Department of Labor expects that 25 found that older workers boost innovation in the percent of the work force will be 55 or older by 2020, workplace. In fact, a recent study published in the when the population of those aged 65 years and over Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology will reach 55 million. That’s a 36 percent increase for concludes that “...older workers are no less innova- the decade, according to U.S. Census data. tive or creative than younger workers, and under the Older workers, aged 55 to 64, actually suffered right conditions are much more so.” slightly less from recession layoffs than other age Nevertheless, five years into the Recession and the groups. But those who did lose their jobs have found supposed recovery, the majority of new jobs available it significantly tougher to get back into the work- are low-wage service jobs that don’t require force, even as the overall job market improves. Two- experience or commitment. As boomers are waking thirds of the boomers who found new employment up to the fact that growing old isn’t what it used to are making less than they did in their previous job, be, they face the sobering realization that the suffering a median salary loss of 18 percent, com- Continues on page 38

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Stanley Blum in his studio with his painting “harlem jazz” at left. One man’s tale of courage Photo by Andy Wainwright, artportrait.org and self-realization Meet Stanley Blum. He’s 94 years old. He survived the Great Depression, World War II and 35 years in the shoe industry. Today — as a poet, painter and seeker — Blum has finally manifested his true inner self. He is engaged in a creative whirlwind of self-discovery that took off at age 80 and grows more textured and vibrant with each passing year. He is, in effect, figuring out what he wants to be when he grows up. “I have spent a lifetime trying to unearth the debris To have a conversation with Blum, is to grasp the that has obscured my inner voice. And now I have essence of what Swiss psychologist Carl Jung called found my inner voice. But I didn’t wake up until I was “the duty and necessity to devote serious attention” 80 years old,” he says. That’s when he began work on to ourselves as we age — attention to our inner his first book, “Unplugged.” He now has three books selves. “The afternoon of human life must also have a to his credit. And his paintings and poems are draw- significance of its own and cannot merely be a pitiful ing larger audiences, people of all ages who are, like appendage to life’s morning,” Jung wrote. Blum, reaching their “Tipping Point:” Blum strongly believes this, and is convinced that everyone has the innate capacity to realize this don’t tell me what is — “necessity.” All his life, his passions were art, litera- tell me what can be ture, poetry and jazz, but those passions were held don’t tell me where you were — “captive of somebody else’s agenda, always subject tell me where you’re going to influences beyond our control.” The habits and expectations imposed on us by outside forces can be don’t tell me what you think — life-long haunts, shadows that fool us into thinking tell me what you’re about to know our creative sides won’t serve us well in the world,

36 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trendslabel according to Blum. For him, it was 9/11 that unleashed “the angst and the creative energy that lay dormant for years.” That day was a trigger, an awakening to a deeply-held understanding: “It takes courage to accept the chaos and mindlessness around us,” says Blum. The only way to counter those outside forces is reach deep inside. A select few can break free of their own volition. For others, a catalyst, like Blum’s 9/11 epiphany is needed to provide the impetus. But far too many find themselves locked in by material comforts, cultural dictates, deteriorating health and other factors. This helps explain the unique Renaissance we see unfolding for people in their 60s, 70s and older. “They are slowly but surely being forced to break their habits — their dependencies on the structures they have no control over,” Blum believes. There is nothing new about the notion that our capacity to navigate through the search for meaning is enhanced as we age. Robert Frost said,” the afternoon knows what the morning never expected.” But we are, as Blum so powerfully articulates, ingrained in our legacy behaviors, our habits, routines and the ex- ternally modified expectations that shape our actions. Yet that’s all changing. “We are living longer. We lest we forget, oil on canvas have more time — perhaps as much as ten years or more — to realize who we are, the hidden potentials we were never compelled to realize and didn’t have the time to realize,” Blum said. “We have more time to accept how our lives are being controlled and mis- guided — and to act on that.” Blum is ahead of the trend. He has long known the secret to breaking free from the prescribed, pre- dictable and, in many ways, pre-destined patterns of conventional aging: “What keeps the longevity wheels moving is finding your creative self and cel- ebrating it.” TJ

These days, Blum and June, his wife of 72 years, split their time between the bucolic beauty of the Hudson Valley and the vigor and vitality of Man- hattan. June is a clinical psychologist still actively engaged in her discipline. Stanley is always creating. To learn more about his work, visit jam session, oil on canvas http://stanleyblumartist.squarespace.com/

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 37 top 2014 trends The predilection for community service will drive boomers to arenas for doing good or bringing meaning to other peoples’ lives.

from corporate dictates; free from formulated pro- cesses; free from routine, these aging boomers make up the first generation to realize that self-realization and survival are not mutually exclusive: Making a living can be accomplished by doing something you love and have a unique penchant for doing. A study by The Kauffman Foundation, which studies small business and entrepreneurial trends, found that even as the recession was taking hold in 2007 and 2008, Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 were creating small businesses at the highest rate of any age group, as they had been for the previous ten years. The study posited: “The decline of lifetime employment, the experience and knowledge of the age group, longer lifespan, and the effect of the current recession are all factors contributing to the increase in entrepreneurial activity in the baby boom generation.”

FINDING MEANING IN WORK Whether they need income or a way to contribute and stay relevant, the predilection for community service will drive boomers to arenas for doing good or Kim Gustafson shows Continued from page 35 bringing meaning to other peoples’ lives. The Corpo- knee-support tights comfort zones where they found work and career ration for National and Community Service analyzed made by Opedix in Vail, decades of Census and Labor Department statistics Colo. Complications fulfillment throughout their lives no longer exist. from a skiing injury Whether they were booted out or left on their own, to conclude: “The number of volunteers of age 65 and led the retired office- when older boomers — educated, skilled, healthy older in the U.S. will increase 50 percent by 2020.” furniture executive And other studies show how boomers, highly edu- Gustafson to his calling: and richly experienced — find themselves out of he started a company to work and unprepared for retirement they have no cated and deeply engaged in their communities, are sell the tights. choice but to reach deep to construct a new stage more likely than previous generations to volunteer Photo by Zach Mahone/ for the next phase of their lives. This has led many to with groups and causes that have direct and measur- The New York Times/Redux take a more “right-brain” approach to life and career. able impact on the lives of their neighbors. Meaning comes from helping a neighbor or sup- DO WHAT YOU LOVE porting a special cause. And it comes from expressing During the annual Aging in America conference creative impulses that traditional workplaces and hosted by the American Society on Aging in April industries too often restrain. That’s why so many 2013, Ken Dychtwald, president and CEO of Age- boomers across the globe, disheartened by investing Wave, said: “Anyone who thinks the boomers will hope in political and economic dead-ends, will turn turn 65 and be the same as the generation before are to their own talents to inspire and aid those in their missing out on the last 60 years of sociology.” Free immediate community. TJ

38 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 TOP 2014 TRENDS Older adults come of age in social media This market is about to show some big returns

By Bennett Daviss CONTRIBUTING EDITOR Not long ago, older folks were ridiculed as being technologically too clueless to program the clock on a DVD player. Now people 55 and older are the fastest-growing group adopting social media: more than 43 percent of Americans 65 and older are using Facebook and its cohorts, compared to just 1 percent in 2008. The Pew Internet and American Life Project has found that 39 million people 65 and older use Facebook, Twitter, and Skype. And Marketingprofs.com reports that 83 percent of seniors now spend more time online than they do watching television.

Photo by Suzanne Kreiter/The Boston Globe via Getty Images Simon Belenkiy, a resident of an elderly housing community in the Boston area, learns how to use Facebook. Watching him work is his wife, Sulamif Belenkiy.

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Proportionately, there are still fewer in this group a dozen letters. Besides, every day a larger share of communicating over the Internet than in other age the folks qualifying as “seniors” come to that age ranges, but the Silver Set is coming to social media category with basic-or-better skills in electronic faster than there are young people being born technologies. into it. • Age can strip people of their familiar social In 2014, the number of adults 55 and older networks. Lifelong friends die; the neighbors of 30 adopting social media will continue to grow years move to warmer climates. Social media not faster than those in younger age groups. But, only ease the sense of loss by enabling seniors to so far, advertisers and marketing campaigns keep in contact with friends and make new acquain- have been slow to capitalize on this emerging tances; it also is immediate. trend. • Many adults find their social networks cen- That will change rapidly this year. Adults 55 tered around their places of work. Retiring from a and older control 70 percent or more of the job also can mean retiring from a network of friends. U.S.’s discretionary income. Pair that with Facebook offers a way to stay in touch with people another unexpected number: a 2012 study by that an older person might otherwise have no rea- the television rater Nielsen Co. discovered son to contact. that a third of online banner ads sway buy- Keeping in touch is the prime reason for Boom- ing decisions in the advertiser’s favor, while ers to migrate to social media. Loneliness and social only a fifth of TV ads do. On the other hand, isolation are implicated in deteriorating physical and 26 percent of TV ads drive buyers away, while mental health and social media provides the anti- only 16 percent of online ads have a negative dote: networks of like minds that can be contacted effect. with a few key clicks. There are affinity groups for Companies with services and products to sell people who share religious or political views, pas- will tailor not only their messages, sions for cooking or television series or other activi- but also their choice of venues, ties, and for retirees from various fields. to seniors hanging out on social “I was dying of boredom,” a 73-year-old woman media. told a New York Times reporter. Social media sites, Among those seniors, Facebook where she often spends 12 hours a day or more in is the first choice. More older conversations and watching news, “gave me a reason adults tune into Facebook than to keep on going.” any other social forum. The reason is simple: It’s still the first BUSINESSES LEADING THE WAY choice for staying in touch with Perhaps, then, it’s not surprising that companies family and friends. catering to seniors are among the businesses leading Here are some key indica- the foray into seniors’ social media territory. tors that will come full circle Merrill Gardens, a chain of more than 50 assisted in 2014: living facilities, uses social media to contact not only • The habits of hand-writ- older people, but also their children who are — or ing letters to take to the post soon may be — looking for supervised settings for office and handing in rolls of their aging parents. Merrill’s homes also use Face- camera film at the drug store book, Twitter, and Instagram to keep residents and were made over a lifetime. their adult children in touch with news and events, But now fewer of the people and Merrill’s Pinterest site hosts community pages these folks want to stay in for residents who knit, love cars, and share other contact with are doing those things. To see what the special interests. Merrill Gardens, a grandkids are up to, it’s essential to tap into social Twenty-four of HCF Management’s 27 senior chain of assisted- care residences throughout Ohio and Pennsylvania living facilities, uses media (which might explain why teens are fleeing Facebook, Twitter and from Facebook and adopting newer venues such as also have created their own Facebook pages. The Pinterest, among other Snapchat and Instagram). facilities also offer YouTube “virtual tours” and in- social media, to connect • Older people are still busy; it’s less time-con- troductions to the homes’ caregivers. Far-flung fam- with residents and their ily members can watch the videos, then discuss their children. suming to post photos and messages to a Facebook page than to reprint six pictures and write and mail opinions of various possible residences. Adult chil- 40 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends How to reach “Baby Boomers” People over 55 don’t think of themselves as being old and don’t like to be reminded that they are. Use the term “Baby Boomers” to address the “new old.” The word “seniors” is now more often applied to people in their early to mid-70s and “elders” to people in their late 70s and beyond. Don’t assume that people who are old need to be spoken to with simple words and short sentences. Most older people resent being treated like children or as if they’re no longer able to grasp complex ideas. It’s said that, especially on the Internet, “nobody reads any more.” But mature people still do. Give them facts and substance, not just phrases, hype and flashy images. Older eyes don’t see well and older people don’t have much patience for pointless flash. In Photo by Maddie Meyer/The Washington Post via Getty Images web-based communications, use large type and David Hoexter and his wife Marcia shop for CDs uncluttered layouts. outside of Capitol Hill Books in Washington, DC. The Hoexters are active Baby Boomers When you do use images, be realistic. Use who moved from the suburbs into more urban pictures of people with white hair and laugh lines settings where they could walk and bike to but show them happily engaged in active pursuits. shops and restaurants. dren don’t have to take a plane trip to see if a sibling through a network of “ambassadors,” offers training, is making the right choice for Mom. group online activities, and one-on-one support to Marketing to seniors and their families is a bot- users. tom-line issue for senior residential care centers in In other words, people over 55 are beginning to another way: the satisfaction of residents and their use social media much like those who are younger. families is becoming a factor in how well the centers In fact, according to a study by the Center for the are paid by government social-service agencies. En- Digital Future for AARP, “there is often little differ- gaging, educating, and entertaining seniors through ence in use of online technology between Boomer in-house websites are becoming crucial levers in and older users and some of the youngest users.” boosting satisfaction for residents, as well as their Adds Jim Gilmartin, principal of the Coming of Age families. marketing consultancy in Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois, AARP, the association of older persons, claims people 55 and older are “using all forms of informa- more than 40 million members, more than a million tion gathering available to them, and so should mar- Facebook friends, and 62,000 Twitter followers. It keters. Those that discount new media” — whether uses YouTube and other social media to broadcast older adults themselves or marketers hoping to reach tips for staying healthy, managing finances, connect- them — “are making a big blunder.” TJ ing with grandchildren, and other member-targeted messages. The steady stream of targeted content RESOURCE adds value to members’ lives, keeps members loyal, For ideas on how the talents of older workers are being tapped in creative ways, check out the work of and keeps renewals coming. encore.org. The not-for-profit was founded “to make it The trend to use social media to engage and sell easier for millions of people to pursue second acts for to seniors has spawned its own support industry. the greater good...jobs that combine personal mean- For example, the Quincy, Massachusetts-based firm ing, continued income and social impact — in the second half of life.” The organization provides resources, Connected Living creates customized web and Face- grants and training opportunities to realize “work with book home pages for senior residential facilities and, a purpose.”

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Digital learning’s golden era Remaining stigma is broken; online learning is just as good By Lisa Ramirez CONTRIBUTING WRITER If you can recall the Golden Era of comic books or remember a time before anti-smoking laws all but obliterated matchbook advertising, you may have been tempted to learn to draw at home. The Famous Artists School was, perhaps, the most well known of all the correspondence schools. It offered an art and illustration course that anyone, anywhere could take through the mail. Quaint and even quirky in retrospect, it was, essentially, distance learning, a way to reach students regardless of their location or access to a campus. in some sectors, that the quality of digital learning is appreciably sub par. Many traditional educators have been making that argument for years while largely ignoring the fact that their students have spent their entire young lives connected to and in- timately merged with digital life experiences on all levels — educational, social, cultural, etc. Even while in class being lectured to, they were likely digitally connected and engaged. In higher education circles, the long-held belief that digital learning has significant limitations will also fade. Being compelled to find more cost-effective ways to educate college students, educators will more easily turn to digital models and, in the process, develop innovative ways to blend traditional classroom knowledge with life experience.

THE FOUNDATION IS IN PLACE According to the Federal Communications Com- mission, a whopping 97 percent of U.S. elementary, middle and high schools supplied connectivity to Remember the old days, Now, the sweeping availability and ever-decreas- students in 2012. The pervasiveness of its use may when a matchbook was ing cost of technology has revolutionized many vary widely from school to school, community to an invitation to a new career? arenas, from how we communicate, to how we community, with some simply providing online Photo by Scott Kingsley work, to how we spend our leisure time. How we homework help and others offering fully virtual learn and how we teach is being transformed, too. courses. But its advantages are undeniable, and its And while the digital learning trend has been value is increasingly documented. evolving for many years, 2014 will see some resilient In fact, the U.S. Department of Education found stigmas about digital learning dissipate, paving the that students who did at least some of their course way for new educational platforms and applications work online did better than those who received all to emerge across a wide range of fields. their instruction in a classroom — ranking in the The most critical stigma to sunset is the belief, 59th percentile compared to the 50th — and the

42 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends

digital learning trend is poised to expand across the total education spectrum. “The study’s major significance lies in demonstrating that online learning today is not just better than nothing — it actually tends to be better than conventional instruction,” educational psychologist Barbara Means, the study’s lead author, told the New York Times. Even the Library of Congress, which boasts a col- lection of 32 million old-fashioned paper-and-ink books, endorses digital learning. Later this winter, the Library, along with the Alliance for Excellent Ed- ucation, will co-host “Digital Learning Day,” touted as a “nationwide celebration of innovative teaching and common-sense, effective applications of digital learning in America’s schools that support teachers, improve learning and help students achieve at their highest potential.” Most markedly, online education enables educa- DIGITAL LEARNING ON FIRE The Library of Congress, tors in the K-12 arena to personalize learning in ways “Technology has completely changed the para- repository of 32 million traditional books, is co- that would otherwise be impossible: The pace of digm. We’ve been able to leverage technology to the hosting a day to explore instruction can be precisely matched to a student’s point where we can have literally quadrupled the and celebrate ways of progress; niche and highly specialized classes can number of people we can serve in a year,” Odom using digital learning in our schools. be offered by even the smallest of schools. And stu- says, adding that his team uses a range of technolo- Digitallearningday.org dents in need of extra help, along with those who gies, including podcasts, self-contained modules outpace their classmates, can access just the right called “webinettes,” and synchronized sessions in coursework, tutoring, or expert to serve them best. which the teacher and the student are online to- Collaboration among students — made increasingly gether, interacting in real time. possible as iPads, smart phones and tablets become Digital learning, Odom says, also saves the exorbi- available to those of even the most modest means tant cost of travel, lodging and meals for instructors — is yet another emerging development within the to visit individual schools, often just to meet with digital trend. a handful of teachers. And, he said, they don’t even Some innovative educators, meanwhile, were have to worry about snowstorms, which can wreak among the first to recognize the benefits of digital havoc on schedules in many areas. learning for their own scholarship and professional “It’s made it possible that even with a few people development. we can deliver courses that offer the same depth and Donald Odom Jr., program assistant for the New quality, and we can also be so much more flexible York State Department of Education’s Hudson with scheduling. It allows us to really focus on the Valley Regional Bi-Lingual Education Resource training, to get right into it,” Odom says. Network, is part of a small but efficient team -re Adults seeking to hone very specific skills will dis- sponsible for bringing training to 144 school discover digital education options growing at a feverish tricts in his region. There are four full-time staffers pace. Entrepreneurs and small business owners will and one part-timer on the team, he says, and their use the Internet to learn bookkeeping, tax prepara- task would be near impossible without the use of tion, accounting, retirement planning and the like digital tools. in even higher numbers. Some of them will even The pace of instruction can be precisely matched to a student’s progress; niche and highly specialized classes can be offered by even the smallest of schools.

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create second careers for themselves by creating the ers and reinforce old stereotypes. But as established modules themselves and providing the training. education “brands” continue to embrace and offer Online vocational training courses and certifi- online courses, the stain of charlatan schools will cate programs are in particular demand, especially continue to fade. Even Harvard, Yale and Oxford among non-traditional students who find it impossi- offer non-residential, online programs, lending their ble to maintain a conventional class schedule. Adults irrefutable pedigrees to the digital trend. with jobs and families, those lacking reliable trans- And while online education will have fewer nay- portation, even incarcerated students, can “earn sayers in 2014, it wasn’t long ago that employers their degree!” in a myriad of trades. The choices assumed that an online vocational or professional seem endless — hospitality, travel and tourism, inte- education was a second-rate one, a default for stu- As seen from the control rior decorating, fashion design, paralegal, firefight- dents who lacked the commitment, wherewithal room, professor Eric ing, construction, medical transcription, automotive or the smarts to succeed in a “real” school. But the Lander is videotaped by three cameras while he repair, web design, floral design and culinary arts — stigma that an online education is inferior to a tradi- teaches an introduction and, when offered by a trustworthy institution, can tional classroom environment will all but disappear to biology class at MIT, move the graduate to an improved livelihood. during the year ahead. Massachusetts Institute Take, for example, the State University of New This holds true in some field more than others. of Technology, in an edX online learning York College of Technology at Delhi, which offers its It’s likely that we will continue to insist that our hair- series. Online courses increasingly popular RN and BSN online programs, dresser, our surgeon and our airline pilot have spent a don’t mean substandard along with associate degrees in electrical construc- good amount of time in the same room with real-life teaching — Lander is the pioneering professor tion and a bachelor’s in criminal justice. instructors. But it’s also likely that students currently who had the idea for the training for those professions will take some online human genome project. WHY 2014 IS A TURNING POINT courses, attend a virtual lecture, or e-mail a final. Photo by Melanie Stetson There are pitfalls, clearly, and online schools with The year ahead will cement the credibility of digi- Freeman/The Christian Science Monitor via Getty Images dubious credentials continue to exploit consum- tal learning in virtually every arena that requires a

44 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 top 2014 trends general or specific educational/training background. to share your expertise as a trainer or instructor on That means opportunity that might have evaded emerging platforms that provide specialized learning. online-educated individuals in previous years, is now You’ll be able to enhance a traditional educational worth a second shot. background with specialized online training. Even In 2014, you’ll find wider and more immediate ac- community- and volunteer-based organizations will ceptance of online degrees and certificates among be able to use digital platforms to enhance efficiency prospective employers. You’ll find new opportunities and productivity. TJ

DIGITAL LEARNING TRENDPOSTS ••Professional education courses — Teacher re-certification programs and professional development courses will be made available in record numbers. ••Summer school — Rather than sit in a brick-and-mortar classroom, high schoolers who need to re-take a class to recover credit can take the course online, whether through their local school or via an accredited online provider. Students can also advance their learning or get ahead on their course of study.

•• Khan Academy — Salman Khan launched his non-profit educational website back in 2006, and since then he has become a rock star among teachers, students and parents alike. It’s worldwide, free, and offers tutorials in everything from basic algebra and microeconomics to astronomy. •• Graduate Courses — Learning institutions from public universities to the Ivy League will offer a much wider range of post-graduate courses, clearing the way for adults with careers, families and demanding schedules to continue their education. •• Vocational Training — Specialized online training is bringing opportunity to people without access to a traditional school setting and employers increasingly recognize its value and effectiveness in preparing candidates for the work force. Skills for careers in areas such as medical billing, paralegal, web design and retail are taught in the courses most commonly offered. This trend is especially beneficial to people living in rural or remote communities and those without access to reliable transportation.

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 45 DRAWING POINTS Illustration by Anthony Freda SCORECARD Our Top Trends for 2013, revisited When we launched a series of improvements to our Trends Journal last summer, we promised you we would hold ourselves accountable for the forecasts we made and the quality and accuracy of our analyses. Here’s a look back at what we forecast a year ago and how we did. — Trends Research Institute staff

The 1st Great On the Road Gerald Celente’s War of the to Financial Four Rules The Great Recession 21st Century Collapse of Peace Awakening Progression

OUTCOME: OUTCOME: OUTCOME: OUTCOME: OUTCOME: ✓ We have ✓ Last October, ✓ This was more ✓ We forecast Thomas Naylor, warned that all China re- of a plan than that just as it ? who penned that is needed to engulf sponded to the continual a forecast. We out- was “The Great Awak- the piece and was a driv- the world in war is an outpouring of newly- lined how, by follow- ening” that ignited the ing force of secession in Archduke Ferdinand mo- created dollars to finance ing four practical rules for American Revolution, the United States, died ment, a flashpoint. This the outpouring of new peace, economies would we would see strong evi- of a stroke just days after past June, when U.S. Pres- U.S. federal debt with a be reinvigorated and the dence of Americans again writing that trend fore- ident Obama declared call to “de-Americanize” nature of civilization awakening to the realiza- cast. With his passing, the that the Assad govern- the world. It announced would be advanced. We tion that the future is in movement in America ment in Syria had crossed that China would cease told subscribers that if their hands. The proof is has dramatically slowed. the “red line,” and the accumulating more dol- they didn’t believe in the in the numbers. Accord- The big test abroad this U.S. was ready to launch a lars. Brazil, Russia, India, plan they could cancel ing to The Associated year will be whether Scot- missile attack, that could China and South Africa their subscription within Press/NORC Center for land will finally break have been the spark. (BRICS) are organizing 60 days and get a full Public Affairs Research away from Mother Eng- But with the majority to abandon the use of refund. We didn’t get survey, 7 in 10 voters do land, and Catalonia from of Americans opposed the U.S. dollar as world one cancellation for that not have any confidence Spain. Stay tuned. to more war, his lacking reserve currency. With reason. The people want in the government “to Congressional and in- its gold supply diminish- peace; it’s the politicians make progress on the ternational support, and ing, the Federal Reserve and military that take us important problems and with a deal cut by Russia is running out of means to war. The latest Pew issues facing the country for Syria to dispose of its to keep its printing press Research poll found that in 2014.” Over 50 percent chemical weapons, war from driving down the support among Ameri- called for a complete was avoided. One year dollar’s value. This could cans for global engage- “government overhaul.” later, the Financial Times be the year that the Fed’s ment is at a 40-year low. They’ve awakened. is making world head- printing press dethrones lines with its editorial, the dollar. “Reflections on the Great War,” which is essentially making our case that socioeconomic and geopolitical conditions of today are similar in nature to those that prevailed before the outbreak of WWI. See “Wake Up Call” in this edition for 2014’s forecast.

48 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | WINTER 2014 scorecard

Energy 2013: New Millennium The Year Education Safe Food of the Frack Party Time Generation Eff’d

OUTCOME: OUTCOME: OUTCOME: OUTCOME: OUTCOME: ✓ Going back ✓ Despite the de- ✓ Trends Journal ✗ We had pre- ✓ We saw the to early 1990’s feat of “Right- Science Editor dicted that Millennial (when Al Gore invented to-Know Genetically Ben Daviss wrote one with the tough eco- generation, a 70-million the Internet), we had Engineered Food” refer- of the most extensive, nomic times, as in the strong demographic seg- written about the big endums in California and comprehensive and well 1930’s, the young and ment (born between 1980 megatrend we called “In- Washington State, the balanced forecast analysis young at heart would and 2000), as Generation teractive U,” a.k.a. on-line buy-local, farm-to-table and strategy implementa- pack up all their cares Eff’d because they were learning. and safe-food/clean-food tion piece on this subject and woes, dress up, put in 2013, and even more so The future has ar- trends escalated world- at the time: “Hydrofrack- on their dancing shoes now, facing a bleak future rived. Virtual classrooms wide. We forecast an ing: The Devil is in the and go out and “boogie and an economy of con- and digital educational increase in contaminated Details.” before the lights go out.” straints. tools are being rapidly food reports from around This trend forecast is We got it wrong. The Our forecast was dead integrated into both the world, shortages of as close to “Fracking” per- cats can’t boogie, hipsters on. From what they schools and for the home organic products and a fect as could be humanly ain’t hip and geeks ain’t would need, to how they schooled. What’s next? steadily growing base possible. chic. Style, elegance and would spend their time, And why is still a top of educated consumers grace aren’t in their DNA. to how they would spend trend? See “digital learn- shifting buying and eat- America has gone their money, this 2013 ing” in this edition. ing habits from quantity from Ella Fitzgerald to analysis was deeply rel- to quality. Clearly, we Miley Cyrus, from Frank evant. were right. Sinatra to Justin Bieber, from Billy Holiday to Nicki Minaj.

WINTER 2014 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL As a Trends Journal subscriber, you’ll stay “I love the Trends In The News feature! on top of what’s really happening in the world Where can you get a daily breakdown of between quarterly issues with exclusive access the news like that anywhere else? I search through articles on many news sites and to Gerald Celente’s Trends in the News weekday websites every day, but Gerald always video broadcasts. brings something new to the table in order Unlike the dumbed-down fare that dominates to think about things in a different way. It’s like having a great professor in your living network and cable broadcasts, Celente delivers room every night. Do you have to agree provocative, pertinent and entertaining with everything? No — but damn it, listen insights, trends analysis and forecasts that you and learn something!” JMC, Mich. won’t find anywhere else! Subscribe today at “Real news, real truth and Gerald trendsjournal.com/secure/orders.php is a real human.” fludog1, online

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