Ecography ECOG-00928 Menuz, D. R., Kettenring, K. M. Hawkins, C. P. and Cutler, D. R. 2014. Non-equilibrium in distribution models – only an issue for introduced or dispersal limited species? – Ecography doi: 10.1111/ ecog.00928

Supplementary material Appendix 1.

Table A1. Species used in distribution models with associated species traits, including nativity (I for introduced, N for native), plant family, seed weight (Wt), maximum height (Ht), whether species is planted frequently (Planted), wetland affinity (Wet), and shade tolerance (Shade). For introduced plant species, the approximate date of the initial introduction to the United States and the first recorded herbarium record within the main states of the study area (Montana, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) are listed.

U.S. Introduction Date 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nativity Species Sites Family Wt (g) Ht (cm) Planted Wet Shade (First study area record)

I Agropyron cristatum 18 1.9 100 yes 17a intolerant early 1900s, 1934

I elatius 15 Poaceae 2.8 150 yes 1 toleranta early 1800sa, 1918

I stoebe 59 Asteraceae 1.32 180 no 17a intolerant late 1800s, 1925 I Cirsium arvense 252 Asteraceae 1.3 200 no 33 tolerant 1600s, 1892 I Cynoglossum officinale 40 Boraginaceae 28 120 no 25 tolerant 1859, 1893 I 91 Poaceae 0.9 150 yes 25 tolerant mid 1700s, 1901

I Elymus repens 52 Poaceae 4.27 80a no 42 intolerant 1600s, 1914

I Hieracium aurantiacum 14 Asteraceae 0.6a 60 no 45b tolerant late 1800s, 1993

I Hypericum perforatum 45 Clusiaceae 0.2 100 no 25b tolerant late 1600s, 1898

I Leucanthemum vulgare 63 Asteraceae 0.41 80 no 45b toleranta 1800sb, 1903

I Phleum pratense 284 Poaceae 0.4 100b yes 42 tolerant early 1700s, 1888

I Poa bulbosa 30 Poaceae 0.9 60 no 17a tolerant 1891, 1932 I Poa trivialis 25 Poaceae 0.2 120 no 75 tolerant unknown, 1925

I Ranunculus repens 36 Ranunculaceae 2.5 61a no 75 toleranta 1700s, 1903

I Tanacetum vulgare 30 Asteraceae 0.2 150 no 65b tolerant 1600s, 1896

I Thinopyrum intermedium 15 Poaceae 4.93 115 yes 25b intoleranta 1932d, 1975 I Trifolium repens 313 Fabaceae 0.6 60 yes 50 intolerant unknown, 1903

N Adenocaulon bicolor 73 Asteraceae 5.54 100 no 45b tolerantb

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N Agastache urticifolia 39 Lamiaceae 0.4 150 no 25b toleranta

N Alopecurus aequalis 23 Poaceae 0.13 70 no 100 toleranta N Artemisia ludoviciana 127 Asteraceae 0.14 100 no 17 intolerant

N Cinna latifolia 170 Poaceae 0.08 200 no 75 toleranta N Elymus glaucus 268 Poaceae 4 180 yes 25 tolerant N Elymus trachycaulus 74 Poaceae 4.6 120 yes 50 intolerant

N Festuca idahoensis 80 Poaceae 1.19 100b yes 25 tolerant

N Koeleria macrantha 25 Poaceae 0.3 60 yes 25b tolerant

N Lupinus polyphyllus 57 Fabaceae 20.8 150b no 58 tolerantc

N Packera pseudaurea 276 Asteraceae 0.4a 70 no 75 tolerantd

N Ranunculus uncinatus 86 Ranunculaceae 0.31 60 no 42 intolerantd

N Rudbeckia occidentalis 132 Asteraceae 1.5 200b no 42 intolerantb

N Silene menziesii 40 Caryophyllaceae 0.25 70 no 50 tolerantd N Solidago canadensis 170 Asteraceae 0.11 200 no 25 intolerant

N Trisetum canescens 27 Poaceae 0.5a 120 no 25 toleranta

N Trisetum wolfii 15 Poaceae 0.5a 80 no 25 intolerantd 1 Nativity and plant family taken from United States Deparment of Agriculture (USDA) Database (http://plants.usda.govs) 2 Per 1000 seeds. Seed weights taken from Kew Royal Botanic Gardens Seed Information Database (http://data.kew.org/sid/sidsearch.html). Weights taken from means across some or all members of genus instead of species-specific value indicated by a. 3 Maximum plant height, taken from Electronic Atlas of the Flora of British Columbia (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/biodiversity/eflora, except for heights taken from USDA PLANTS Database indicated by a and Jepson Online Interchange (http://ucjeps.berkeley.edu/interchange/index.html), by b. 4 For natives, species were considered planted widely if at least 10 vendors were listed as selling their seed in the Native Seed Network (http://www.nativeseednetwork.org). For introduced species, species described as commonly planted in the USDA PLANTS Database and/or in the USDA Forest Service Fire Effects Information System (http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/index.html) were considered widely planted. Planting status was corroborated by Peppin et al. (2011) because all species listed as used for post-wildlife seeding in this publication were considered widely planted through other data review.

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5 Wetland affinity ratings derived from Wetland Indicator Status rankings for region 9 in the USDA PLANTS Database, with conversion to numeric Wetland Indicator Values using Table 1 in Coles-Ritchie et al. (2007). Values range from 1, no affinity to wetlands, to 100, only found in wetlands, with values of 50 indicating that species are equally likely to be found in wetlands and uplands. Species without Wetland Indicator Status values were assigned ratings based on verbal descriptions in the USDA Forest Service Fire Effects Information System, indicated by a, or the average soil moisture regime where species were found in the Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification Database in the Electronic Atlas of the Flora of British Columbia, indicated by b. 6 Shade tolerance information taken from verbal descriptions in the USDA Forest Service Fire Effects Information System, or from USDA PLANTS database, a, Jepson Online Interchange, b, Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center Native Plant Information Network (http://www.wildflower.org), c, or Electronic Atlas of the Flora of British Columbia, d. 7Information on initial introduction dates to the United States taken from the USDA Forest Service Fire Effects Information System,or from the USDA Plants database, a, or the Center for Invasive Species and Ecosystem Health (http://www.invasive.org), b. Data on first study area record taken by searching for herbarium records from Montana, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho in the Intermountain Region Herbarium Network (http://intermountainbiota.org/portal/index.php). Herbarium record dates cannot be used to infer relative differences in introduction dates because plant collectors are likely to target different habitats and taxa differently. However, the information at least provides information at the latest possible date at which different taxa were introduced to a region.

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Table A2. Predictor variables used in species distribution models, including variables in environment-only models and road-based dispersal variables. Range and units of measures listed for continuous variables.

Variable Description Range Units Continuous variables Pmin mean monthly precipitation of the driest month of the year 7-96 mm Pmax mean monthly precipitation of the wettest month of the year 28-273 mm Tmin mean monthly temperature of the coldest month of the year -18.8- -3.1 °C Tmax mean monthly temperature of the hottest month of the year 15.5-31.9 °C Grazing1k percent of 1-km buffer around site with grazing allotments 0-100 % RockP percent phosphorous in the dominant rock at sites 0.07-3.1 % RockN percent nitrogen in the dominant rock at sites 0-0.07 % Nfixer cover of nitrogen fixing species at site 0-100 % OM percent of fines composed of organic matter in soil 1.2-10.8 % pH soil pH of site 5.1-8.5 Shrub cover of shrubland at site 0-92 % Grass cover of grassland at site 0-100 % Slope slope of site stream segment 0-25.5 % Baseflow streamflow attributed to ground-water discharge into streams 31-89 % Categorical variable Fire presence/absence of fire within last 10 years at site Variables only in models that include road data Rd1k length of roads in 1-km buffer around site 0-30408 m RdNear distance from site to nearest road 0.3-19220 m

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Table A3. Model accuracy statistics for distribution models built using only environmental predictors and models built with environmental predictors and dispersal kernel. Statistics include percent correctly classified (PCC), specificity (SPEC), sensitivity (SENS), area under the curve (AUC), and true skill statistic. Environment-only Environment + dispersal kernel Species PCC SPEC SENS AUC TSS PCC SPEC SENS AUC TSS Introduced Agropyron cristatum 80.8 80.9 77.2 0.84 0.58 81.2 81.0 91.7 0.93 0.73 Arrhenatherum elatius 87.3 87.2 94.0 0.95 0.81 89.3 89.2 100.0 0.98 0.89 Centaurea stoebe 66.0 65.6 75.6 0.78 0.41 72.4 72.0 79.8 0.82 0.52 Cirsium arvense 57.9 56.2 64.8 0.65 0.21 60.2 57.5 71.2 0.70 0.29 Cynoglossum officinale 67.4 67.2 73.0 0.80 0.40 71.9 71.7 76.3 0.83 0.48 Dactylis glomerata 63.7 63.3 69.3 0.73 0.33 66.6 66.0 75.5 0.78 0.41 Elymus repens 66.3 66.5 61.3 0.69 0.28 67.2 67.2 67.3 0.74 0.34 Hieracium aurantiacum 72.8 72.7 81.4 0.82 0.54 82.2 82.1 84.3 0.90 0.66 Hypericum perforatum 76.8 76.5 84.4 0.87 0.61 81.1 81.0 84.4 0.91 0.65 Leucanthemum vulgare 66.7 66.4 71.4 0.78 0.38 70.0 69.5 79.7 0.82 0.49 Phleum pratense 62.4 59.6 72.5 0.72 0.32 66.8 65.1 73.1 0.77 0.38 Poa bulbosa 77.7 77.6 82.3 0.88 0.60 82.5 82.5 82.3 0.91 0.65 Poa trivialis 65.8 66.1 51.6 0.61 0.18 70.5 70.6 65.2 0.76 0.36 Ranunculus repens 68.1 68.0 70.6 0.77 0.39 73.1 73.2 72.8 0.81 0.46 Tanacetum vulgare 75.2 75.0 84.0 0.86 0.59 80.6 80.5 85.3 0.89 0.66 Thinopyrum intermedium 75.6 75.7 64.0 0.75 0.40 75.9 75.9 73.3 0.82 0.49 Trifolium repens 62.8 63.4 34.1 0.50 -0.03 64.5 64.7 54.8 0.62 0.20 Native Adenocaulon bicolor 71.1 70.4 82.6 0.85 0.53 75.1 74.5 85.5 0.88 0.60 Agastache urticifolia 68.0 67.8 73.3 0.75 0.41 73.7 73.5 77.9 0.82 0.51 Alopecurus aequalis 65.4 65.4 62.6 0.68 0.28 65.8 65.7 72.2 0.74 0.38 Artemisia ludoviciana 68.9 67.5 82.5 0.81 0.50 70.4 69.0 83.1 0.84 0.52 Cinna latifolia 59.0 57.3 69.9 0.69 0.27 62.7 60.7 76.6 0.75 0.37 Elymus glaucus 62.1 59.8 70.8 0.71 0.31 67.3 65.9 73.1 0.76 0.39 Elymus trachycaulus 63.1 63.2 61.4 0.65 0.25 64.9 64.6 69.2 0.71 0.34 Festuca idahoensis 61.6 61.6 62.9 0.68 0.24 62.7 62.3 69.3 0.71 0.32 Koeleria macrantha 69.7 70.0 54.4 0.69 0.24 76.7 76.7 74.8 0.82 0.51 Lupinus polyphyllus 70.2 69.5 85.3 0.85 0.55 73.9 73.4 84.4 0.87 0.58 Packera pseudaurea 63.1 59.8 75.5 0.74 0.35 70.3 69.8 72.0 0.78 0.42 Ranunculus uncinatus 63.9 63.6 69.1 0.72 0.33 66.8 66.3 73.7 0.75 0.40 Rudbeckia occidentalis 70.7 69.6 79.8 0.81 0.49 73.7 73.1 79.5 0.85 0.53 Silene menziesii 63.2 63.1 65.5 0.69 0.29 66.8 66.6 70.8 0.74 0.37 Solidago canadensis 64.8 64.4 67.5 0.72 0.32 70.7 71.3 66.8 0.77 0.38 Trisetum canescens 65.1 62.2 74.3 0.75 0.36 68.2 65.5 76.5 0.78 0.42 Trisetum wolfii 78.4 78.4 78.7 0.85 0.57 80.6 80.6 81.3 0.90 0.62

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Literature Cited

Coles-Ritchie, M. et al. 2007. Use of a wetland index to evaluate changes in riparian vegetation after livestock exclusion. – J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 43:731-743.

Peppin, D. et al. 2011. Recent trends in post-wildfire seeding in western US forests: costs and seed mixes. – Int. J. Wildland Fire 20:702-708.

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