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National Oil Companies and Value Creation Public Disclosure Authorized WORLD BANK WORKING PAPER NO. 218 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized National Oil Companies and Value Creation Public Disclosure Authorized Silvana Tordo Public Disclosure Authorized with Brandon S. Tracy and Noora Arfaa WORLD BANK WORKING PAPER No. 218 National Oil Companies and Value Creation Silvana Tordo with Brandon S. Tracy and Noora Arfaa © 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11 World Bank Working Papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the de- velopment community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally-edited texts. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judge- ment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-8831-0 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8832-7 ISSN: 1726-5878 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8831-0 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. Tordo, Silvana. National oil companies and value creation / Silvana Tordo with Brandon S. Tracy and Noora Arfaa. p. cm. — (World Bank working paper ; no. 218) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8213-8831-0 (alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8213-8832-7 (electronic) 1. Petroleum industry and trade. 2. Business enterprises. I. Tracy, Brandon S., 1973- II. Arfaa, Noora. III. Title. HD9560.5.T647 2011 338.2’7282—dc23 2011020570 Contents Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................vii Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................ix Executive Summary..................................................................................................................xi 1. The Petroleum Sector Value Chain ....................................................................................1 1.1 Overview of the Value Chain ..................................................................................... 1 1.2 Policy Decisions Affecting Value Creation ...............................................................3 1.1.1 Industry Participation ........................................................................................4 1.1.2 Licensing and Petroleum Contracts ................................................................ 4 1.1.3 Taxation ...............................................................................................................5 1.1.4 Depletion Policy .................................................................................................. 5 1.3 Value Creation Through Integration ......................................................................... 7 1.4 Local Content Policies and Value Creation ...............................................................8 1.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 11 2. The Establishment of a NoC: Advantages and Issues ................................................15 2.1 A Brief History of Nocs ........................................................................................... 15 2.1.1 Industry Participation ..................................................................................... 15 2.1.2 The Emergence of Nocs ................................................................................. 16 2.1.3 Opec Revolution and Post-Colonial World ................................................. 17 2.1.4 The Reaction of Consumer States .................................................................. 19 2.1.5 A New Agenda: Liberalization and Privatization ...................................... 19 2.1.6 The End of History? ......................................................................................... 20 2.1.7 Developments Since 2000 ................................................................................ 21 2.2 Arguments in Favor of Nocs ...................................................................................22 2.2.1 Historical Context ............................................................................................22 2.2.2 The Importance of the Petroleum Sector .....................................................22 2.2.3 Political Gains from State Control ................................................................. 23 2.2.4 Efficiency and Monitoring of Operations .................................................... 23 2.2.5 Petroleum Rent Maximization ...................................................................... 23 2.2.6 Socioeconomic Issues and Priorities ............................................................. 24 2.3 Practical Difficulties and Setbacks withoc N s ..................................................... 24 2.3.1 Historical Context and Ideology .................................................................... 24 2.3.2 Economic Cost of Political Control ................................................................ 25 2.3.3 Operational Inefficiencies ............................................................................... 25 2.3.4 Lack of Competition ........................................................................................ 26 iii iv World Bank Working Paper 2.3.5 Subsidies and Noncommercial Objectives................................................... 26 2.3.6 Weak Corporate Governance ......................................................................... 27 2.3.7 Funding Strategy and Requirements ............................................................ 27 2.3.8 Conflict of Interests and Balance of Control ................................................ 28 2.4 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 29 3. The Performance and Value Creation of NoCs: A Conceptual Model ....................38 3.1 A Conceptual Model of Value Creation .................................................................. 38 3.2 Measuring the Performance of Nocs: The Value Creation Index ...................... 39 3.2.1 Proxy Measures Used in Vci .........................................................................40 3.2.2 Determination of Vci ......................................................................................44 3.3 The Value Drivers .......................................................................................................44 3.3.1 Selection of Proxy Variables ........................................................................... 45 3.4 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 47 4. Case Studies and Lessons Learned ..................................................................................50 4.1 Exploratory Analysis of Value Drivers ....................................................................50 4.1.1 Selection of Proxy Variables ...........................................................................50 4.1.2 Indications from the Statistical Analysis...................................................... 52 4.2 Case Studies ................................................................................................................ 53 4.3 The Corporate Governance of Nocs ......................................................................54 4.3.1 Context Variables and Noc Corporate Governance ..................................54 4.3.1.1 External Governance ............................................................................. 67 4.3.1.2 Internal Governance ............................................................................. 72 4.3.2 Selected Nocs Corporate Governance Scorecard ...................................... 81 4.4 Lessons Learned .........................................................................................................84 5. Conclusion...........................................................................................................................102
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