Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, January 31, 2020

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH KEY INDEX KEY INDEX Chg Ytd Vol Chg Ytd Vol Jasa Marga: Year of adjustment (JSMR IJ. IDR 4,800 BUY TP. Close Close IDR 6,800) (%) (%) (US$ m) (%) (%) (US$ m) Two JSMR toll roads will impose new tariffs and simplified tariff Asean - 5 Asean - 5 categories on 31 Jan 20. However, the simplified categories will Indonesia 6,058 (0.9) (3.8) 304 Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318 result in tariff cuts for large-sized vehicles. Vehicles under categories Thailand 1,524 (0.0) (3.5) 1,734 Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454 3, 4, and 5 will see tariff cuts while categories 1 and 2 will see tariff Philippines 7,393 (0.9) (5.4) 100 Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87 increases. We believe this is in accordance with the government’s Malaysia 1,546 (0.3) (2.7) 625 Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338 vision to reduce the distribution cost of goods. Another 10 JSMR toll Singapore 3,171 (0.4) (1.6) 1,023 Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908 roads are targeted for tariff adjustments this year due to delays from Regional Regional the previous year and the original schedule. We maintain our BUY China 2,977 (2.8) (2.4) 62,432 China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889 call on JSMR. Hong Kong 26,449 (2.6) (6.2) 16,149 Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093 Japan 23,171 0.8 (2.1) 1,624 Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278 To see the full version of this report, please click here Korea 2,152 0.2 (2.1) 5,981 Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790 2019 Result Taiwan 11,422 (5.8) (4.8) 9,123 Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534 Unilever Indonesia: In line FY19 earnings (UNVR IJ. IDR India 40,914 (0.7) (0.8) 259 India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495 8,225 BUY TP. IDR 9,200) Nasdaq 9,299 0.3 3.6 60,555 Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797 Dow Jones 28,859 0.4 1.1 13,080 Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490

UNVR reported FY19 core earnings growth (excluding one-off gains and the spread business) of +9.3% yoy, thanks to improved gross CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE margins and continued opex efficiencies. At the top line, the FY19 w-w m-m ytd w-w m-m ytd Rate Rate revenues were up 4.8% - mostly supported by higher domestic (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) revenues (+5.8% yoy). The FY19 net profit is in line with our Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,657 (0.1) 1.9 1.5 Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9 forecast (99% of FY19F) and consensus estimates (99%). Maintain BI7DRRR % 5.00 - - - BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0) HOLD. 10y Gov Indo bond 6.65 0.0 (0.4) (0.4) 10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9)

To see the full version of this report, please click here HARD COMMODITY HARD COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd BPD Jatim: Steady performance (BJTM IJ. IDR 620 BUY TP. Unit Price Unit Price (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) IDR 800) Coal US$/ton 69 0.1 1.4 1.4 Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0) We maintain our BUY call on BJTM with an unchanged GGM-derived Gold US$/toz 1,575 0.0 3.8 3.8 Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2 TP of IDR800, liking the bank for its turnaround story with a decent Nickel US$/mt.ton 12,545 0.6 (11.9) (10.1) Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6 loans growth outlook going forward. Commercial loans are the new Tin US$/mt.ton 16,035 (1.0) (5.8) (6.7) Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1) growth engine for BJTM as the bank is participating in loans syndication for some infrastructure projects. Thus, we expect 10.9% SOFT COMMODITY SOFT COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd yoy loans growth this year. On the funding side, CASA deposits will Unit Price Unit Price remain sizeable in the bank’s customer deposits structure backed by (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) strong support from provincial and regency government current Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,655 0.8 9.6 8.0 Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7 accounts. This should translate into a 2.8% blended CoF for FY20F Corn US$/mt.ton 142 (1.1) (1.9) (1.6) Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6 in our model. Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 53 1.2 (13.6) (13.6) Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3 Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 58 (2.5) (14.8) (11.7) Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0 To see the full version of this report, please click here Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,778 1.5 (7.4) (8.2) Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8 MARKET NEWS Rubber USd/kg 136 (0.9) (6.4) (6.4) Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 MACROECONOMY Coffee US$/60kgbag 70 1.0 2.1 2.1 Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5 ▪ The government has distributed IDR97.7bn of Village Funds Sugar US$/MT 408 0.3 12.9 13.6 Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6 stage I Wheat US$/ton 153 (0.3) 0.8 0.3 Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1) ▪ World Bank estimates 115mn Indonesians to be in the middle- Soy Oil US$/lb 31 (2.8) (12.9) (11.2) Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9 income class SoyBean US$/by 876 (1.9) (6.7) (7.1) Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3) CORPORATE

▪ Adhi Karya: Won contracts for two MRT stations phase 2

PREVIOUS REPORT ▪ Cigarette: A survey on higher prices: What will smokers do? ▪ Bank Mandiri: Still a keeper ▪ Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Stay micro, stay profitable ▪ Semen Indonesia: Year of consolidation Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity Research

Company Update

Friday,31 January 2020 BUY Jasa Marga(JSMR IJ) Maintain Year of adjustment

Last price (IDR) 4,800 Two JSMR toll roads will impose new tariffs and simplified tariff categories on Target Price (IDR) 6,800 31 Jan 20. However, the simplified categories will result in tariff cuts for large- sized vehicles. Vehicles under categories 3, 4, and 5 will see tariff cuts while Upside/Downside +41.7% categories 1 and 2 will see tariff increases. We believe this is in accordance Previous Target Price (IDR) 6,800 with the government’s vision to reduce the distribution cost of goods. Another 10 JSMR toll roads are targeted for tariff adjustments this year due Stock Statistics to delays from the previous year and the original schedule. We maintain our Sector Toll Road BUY call on JSMR. Bloomberg Ticker JSMR IJ Two JSMR toll roads are scheduled to implement new tariffs on 31 Jan 20, namely: Cawang – Tomang – Pluit, also known as Jakarta Inner Ring Road (JIRR) No of Shrs (mn) 7,258 and the Gempol – Pandaan toll. Besides the new tariffs, the tariff categories for Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 34,838/2,551 these two toll roads will be simplified from five categories to three based on Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 21.4/1.6 the type of vehicle. Hence, categories 1 and 2 will see tariff increases while vehicles under categories 3 to 5 will see tariff reductions. We believe the policy Major shareholders (%) is being applied to reduce the distribution cost of goods. Government 70.0 Categories simplified resulting in tariff cuts for categories 3, 4 and 5. On JIRR and Gempol – Pandaan, the tariff increases only apply for categories 1 and 2 Public 30.0 with hikes of around IDR500 to IDR3,500, translating into 3.8% to 30.4% increases. However, the simplified tariffs resulting in tariff cuts range from IDR2,000 to IDR31,000 or -3.2% to -26.1% tariff reductions. This results in a EPS Consensus (IDR) lower discrepancy in tariffs between categories 1 and 5 since previous tariffs 2019F 2020F 2021F for category 5 were more than double to triple category 1 tariffs and they are Danareksa 294.5 301.4 371.0 now 1.7x to 2.14x higher. However, passenger cars (category 1) dominate the traffic with more than a 70% contribution. Consensus 284.1 289.6 311.4 More toll roads targeted for tariff adjustments this year. More JSMR toll roads Danareksa/Cons 3.7 4.0 19.2 are targeted for tariff adjustments this year on the back of delays from the previous year and the schedule. JSMR’s toll roads which should have seen tariff JSMR relative to JCI Index adjustments in 2019 and were delayed are: Gempol – Pandaan, JIRR, Bali Mandara, Surabaya – Gempol, Palikanci, Belawan – Medan – Tj. Morawa, Padaleunyi, and Cipularang. These toll roads contribute 42% of the traffic and 34% of the revenues. By comparison, toll roads which should see tariff increases in even years are: Bogor Ring Road section 1 and 2A and Jakarta – Cikampek. These toll roads contribute 15.6% to the traffic and 13.2% to revenues. Maintain BUY. New tariffs were implemented on three toll roads in 2019, namely: Prof Sedyatmo, Jagorawi, and Jakarta – Tangerang. They contribute 22.5% of the traffic and 23.3% of JSMR’s revenues. Furthermore, tariffs were raised on the Surabaya – Mojokerto toll road as of 3 Jan 20 by 5.6% for passenger cars. The toll road contributes 1.9% to JSMR’s traffic and 3.2% to revenues. We believe the lower revenues owe to lower charges for large-sized vehicles which might be offset by more volume. We have included the tariff

delays in our model as the 9M19 revenues represent 73.1% of our target. We Source : Bloomberg expect revenues to grow by 17.4% yoy in FY20, outpacing FY19’s 11.2%yoy.

Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue (IDRbn) 8,922 9,784 10,879 12,768 15,150 EBITDA (IDRbn) 3,328 3,581 4,307 4,995 5,425 EBITDA Growth (%) 9.7 7.6 20.3 16.0 8.6

Net profit (IDRbn) 2,200 2,203 2,138 2,187 2,693 EPS (IDR) 303.2 303.5 294.5 301.4 371.0

EPS growth (%) 9.5 0.1 (2.9) 2.3 23.1 BVPS (IDR) 2,080.2 2,329.7 2,592.7 2,864.5 3,205.5 x Maria Renata DPS (IDR) 78.1 60.6 30.3 29.5 30.1 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3513 PER (x) 15.8 15.8 16.3 15.9 12.9 [email protected] PBV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.2 17.3 16.2 14.7 14.1

Source : JSMR, Danareksa Estimates www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

Equity Research

Results Note

Friday,31 January 2020 HOLD Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) Maintain In-line FY19 earnings

Last price (IDR) 8,225 UNVR reported FY19 core earnings growth (excluding one-off gains and the Target Price (IDR) 9,200 spread business) of +9.3% yoy, thanks to improved gross margins and continued opex efficiencies. At the top line, the FY19 revenues were up 4.8% Upside/Downside +11.9% - mostly supported by higher domestic revenues (+5.8% yoy). The FY19 net Previous Target Price (IDR) 9,200 profit is in line with our forecast (99% of FY19F) and consensus estimates (99%). Maintain HOLD. Stock Statistics Sector Consumer FY19 revenues grew 2.7% yoy. UNVR reported 4Q19 revenues of IDR10.6tn, - Bloomberg Ticker UNVR IJ 3.1% qoq but +2.8% yoy, which led to FY19 revenues of IDR42.9tn, + 2.7% yoy. No of Shrs (mn) 7,630 However, stripping out the spread revenues in 2018, the FY19 top line reported equivalent growth of 4.8% yoy. Domestic revenues grew +3.5% yoy in FY19 Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 62,757/4,595 (excluding spread revenues in 2018: +5.8% yoy), while exports declined by Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 87.9/6.4 11.3% yoy in the same period. By division, Home and Personal Care (HPC) reported solid +4% yoy top line growth in FY19. Food and Refreshments (FNR) Major shareholders (%) booked flattish growth (-0.1% yoy) in FY19. The FY19 top line is 98.6% of our Unilever Indonesia Holding B.V. 85.0 FY19F and 98.8% of consensus estimates, i.e. inline.

Estimated free float 15.0 FY19 core earnings growth of +6% yoy. UNVR reported a higher 4Q19 gross margin of 52.9%, as both the HPC and FNR divisions reported higher gross EPS Consensus (IDR) margins of 56.8% (3Q19: 53.6%) and 43.4% (3Q19: 43.4%), respectively. This 2019F 2020F 2021F supported the FY19 gross margin improvement to 51.3% (FY18: 50.5%). On the Danareksa 195.7 209.9 223.0 operating front, the company continued its efficiencies in opex in spite of Consensus 195.4 194.2 206.5 various new product/relaunching activities. Bear in mind that the company booked one-off gains from the spreads business sale of IDR2.1tn in 3Q18. As Danareksa/Cons 0.2 8.1 8.0 such, UNVR booked lower FY19 operating profits of IDR10.1tn, down 17.9% yoy.

UNVR relative to JCI Index Combined with higher interest expenses, this filtered through to FY19 net profits of IDR7.4tn, down 18.6% yoy. However, stripping out the one-off gains and also the existing profits of the spreads business in 2018, UNVR reported FY19 core profits growth of 9.3% yoy. The FY19 net profits are 99% of our FY19F and of consensus estimates, i.e. in line.

Maintain HOLD with a TP of IDR9,200. The company will continue to launch or relaunch new products/brands within its HPC and FNR segments to better serve the needs of its customers, we believe. Combined with solid household consumption, UNVR is well placed to sustain revenues and earnings growth going forward. At the current share price, UNVR is trading at FY19F PE of 45.5x, at its average 3-y PE of 45.6x. We maintain our HOLD recommendation with a TP of IDR9,200. Key Financials Source : Bloomberg Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue (IDRbn) 41,205 41,802 43,522 46,352 49,627 EBITDA (IDRbn) 10,129 13,033 10,784 11,520 12,175 EBITDA Growth (%) 9.6 28.7 (17.3) 6.8 5.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 7,005 9,109 7,465 8,009 8,506 EPS (IDR) 183.6 238.8 195.7 209.9 223.0

EPS growth (%) 9.6 30.0 (18.1) 7.3 6.2 BVPS (IDR) 135.6 198.6 199.3 200.0 200.7 DPS (IDR) 183.0 182.9 195.0 209.2 222.2 PER (x) 44.8 34.4 42.0 39.2 36.9 x Natalia Sutanto PBV (x) 60.7 41.4 41.3 41.1 41.0 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3508 Dividend yield (%) 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 31.3 24.1 29.1 27.3 25.8 [email protected]

Source : UNVR, Danareksa Estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

Equity Research

Result Note

Friday,31 January 2020 BPD Jatim (BJTM IJ) BUY Maintain Steady performance

Last price (IDR) 620 We maintain our BUY call on BJTM with an unchanged GGM-derived TP of Target Price (IDR) 800 IDR800, liking the bank for its turnaround story with a decent loans growth outlook going forward. Commercial loans are the new growth engine for Upside/Downside +29.0% BJTM as the bank is participating in loans syndication for some Previous Target Price (IDR) 800 infrastructure projects. Thus, we expect 10.9% yoy loans growth this year. On the funding side, CASA deposits will remain sizeable in the bank’s Stock Statistics customer deposits structure backed by strong support from provincial and Sector Banking regency government current accounts. This should translate into a 2.8% Bloomberg Ticker BJTM IJ blended CoF for FY20F in our model. No of Shrs (mn) 14,975 FY19 highlights. FY19’s net profits of IDR1.38tn are inline with our/consensus Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 9,284/680 forecasts with a lower NIM of 6.1% on the back of lower lending rates on Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 4.5/0.3 multipurpose loans as well as higher exposure to the commercial segment. Meanwhile, the gross NPLs ratio continued to improve to 2.8% as of Major shareholders (%) December 2019 as the management already made IDR519bn of write-offs in East Java provincial government 51.4 FY19. Meanwhile, credit costs rose to 103bps from 41bps in FY18 as BJTM’s East Java regencies government 28.5 management allocated more provisions to comply with PSAK 71. Estimated free float 20.4 Stronger loans growth. The bank posted brisk loans growth of 13.2% yoy in EPS Consensus (IDR) December 2019 mainly driven by 27.1% yoy growth in the commercial 2019F 2020F 2021F segment. This is also a reflection of the bank’s management’s commitment toward supporting infrastructure projects both in East Java and outer East Danareksa 90.6 97.2 105.2 Java areas, including loans for toll-road construction. Additionally, BJTM’s Consensus 91.0 100.6 112.4 management also highlighted that it now implements better risk management Danareksa/Cons (0.4) (3.4) (6.4) on the commercial segment by reviewing its borrowers’ cashflow more thoroughly and regularly. All in all, we project 10.9% yoy loans growth this BJTM relative to JCI Index year with 13.7% yoy growth in commercial loans.

High CASA deposits provide a buffer for its CoF. BJTM continues to have a high level of CASA deposits thanks to its regional bank status. For current accounts, the local and provincial governments remain its niche market. And for savings accounts, the payroll payments of East Java’s civil servants support its CASA deposits. All in all, we expect CASA deposits to account for 76.2% of total customer deposits by the end of 2020F with a 2.8% blended CoF.

BUY with an unchanged TP of IDR800. We maintain our BUY call on BJTM with an unchanged GGM-derived TP of IDR800 (implying 1.22x 2020F PBV) assuming 11.5% CoE, 13.4% sustainable ROAE and 3.0% long-term growth.

Key Financials Source : Bloomberg Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F

PPOP (IDRbn) 1,860 1,840 2,143 2,362 2,478 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,159 1,260 1,353 1,451 1,570

EPS (IDR) 77.7 84.4 90.6 97.2 105.2

EPS growth (%) 12.8 8.7 7.3 7.2 8.2

BVPS (IDR) 523.6 567.5 608.3 652.0 699.4

Eka Savitri PER (x) 8.0 7.3 6.8 6.4 5.9 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext.3506 PBV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 [email protected] Dividend yield (%) 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.6 9.3 ROAE (%) 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.6

Source : BJTM, Danareksa Estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, January 31, 2020

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY The government has distributed IDR97.7bn of Village Funds stage I The Ministry of Finance recently distributed village funds stage I for 2020 of IDR97.7bn to help village development. The village funds budget in 2020 will be distributed to 74,953 villages across Indonesia via 169 State Treasury Offices (KPPN). Hence, each village will get around IDR960.6mn, or up from IDR933.9mn in 2019. (Investor Daily)

World Bank estimates 115mn Indonesians to be in the middle-income class In the latest report of the World Bank, around 115mn Indonesians (45% of the population) are estimated to be classified in the middle-income class. In the last 15 years, the middle-income class population comprised 20% of the population or around 52mn people. The WB believes that the middle-income class will be the main driver of household consumption and human resource development to boost investment. The growth of household consumption by the middle-income class has increased by 12% from 2002. As such, to really utilize this opportunity, the WB is urging the Indonesian government to carry out investment reformation, extend employment opportunities, improve the ease of doing business ranking, and strengthen the tax system to improve tax compliance. (Kontan)

CORPORATE Adhi Karya: Won contracts for two MRT stations phase 2 Adhi Karya’s (ADHI) consortium including Shimizu Corporation has won working contracts in the Jakarta MRT Phase 2 CP201 package worth IDR4.1tn. The CP201 package consists of the development of two MRT stations, Thamrin Station and Monas Station. Construction is targeted to start in Mar2020. The Jakarta MRT phase 2 will link Bundaran HI to Jakarta Kota and will have 7 stations along the route. Furthermore, MRT Jakarta is conducting a feasibility study to extend the phase 2 track to Ancol Barat. This is different from the previous plan to pass through Kampung Bandan. The development of Jakarta MRT phase 2 is targeted to be completed by 2024. For phase 3 of the project which would link Ujung Menteng to Kalideres, the basic engineering design (BED) is currently being carried out by the Japan International Cooperation Agency. (Investor Daily)

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Grow th PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE Valuation Target Rp Bn 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 Danareksa Universe 4,294,597 258,015 285,979 209 232 8.4% 10.8% 16.6 15.0 12.9 11.9 2.4 2.2 14.9 15.2 Auto 268,204 21,942 23,302 441 469 6.3% 6.2% 12.2 11.5 8.2 7.8 1.7 1.6 14.4 14.2 Astra International BUY 6,625 8,000 268,204 21,942 23,302 542 576 525 546 6.3% 6.2% 12.2 11.5 8.2 7.8 1.7 1.6 14.4 14.2 Banks 1,412,573 86,444 98,704 658 751 8.5% 14.2% 16.3 14.3 2.3 2.1 14.7 15.1 BCA HOLD 33,700 33,000 830,874 32,883 37,215 1,334 1,509 1,334 1,509 12.4% 13.2% 25.3 22.3 N/A N/A 4.2 3.7 17.9 17.8 BNI BUY 7,250 9,000 135,203 16,573 18,085 889 970 889 970 4.2% 9.1% 8.2 7.5 N/A N/A 1.0 0.9 13.0 12.8 Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,930 2,700 20,439 2,203 3,423 208 323 208 323 76.8% 55.4% 9.3 6.0 N/A N/A 0.8 0.7 8.6 12.2 Bank Mandiri BUY 7,650 9,000 357,000 28,813 33,046 617 708 617 708 2.9% 14.7% 12.4 10.8 N/A N/A 1.7 1.5 14.0 14.7 BTPN HOLD 3,060 3,500 24,936 2,870 3,298 352 405 352 405 11.2% 14.9% 8.7 7.6 N/A N/A 0.8 0.7 9.3 9.9 BTPS HOLD 4,520 4,200 34,821 1,651 2,067 214 268 214 268 27.4% 25.2% 21.1 16.8 N/A N/A 5.7 4.6 30.1 30.5 BPD Jatim BUY 620 800 9,301 1,451 1,570 97 105 97 105 7.2% 8.2% 6.4 5.9 N/A N/A 1.0 0.9 15.4 15.6 Basic Industries 269,545 2,430 2,783 23 26 64.2% 14.5% 110.9 96.8 19.0 18.5 6.2 6.0 5.6 6.3 Barito Pacific HOLD 1,240 1,200 110,380 821 994 9 11 15 12 115.2% 21.1% 134.4 111.0 11.4 11.4 6.4 6.4 4.8 5.8 Chandra Asri Petrochemical HOLD 8,925 8,800 159,164 1,609 1,789 90 100 94 105 46.4% 11.2% 98.9 89.0 35.1 33.0 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.6 Cement 136,367 4,183 5,367 435 558 23.2% 28.3% 32.6 25.4 11.8 10.5 2.4 2.3 7.4 9.2 Indocement BUY 17,225 21,600 63,409 1,823 2,051 495 557 495 557 12.2% 12.5% 34.8 30.9 21.0 19.6 2.7 2.6 7.7 8.5 Semen Indonesia BUY 12,300 17,500 72,958 2,360 3,316 398 559 398 559 33.4% 40.5% 30.9 22.0 8.5 7.3 2.2 2.0 7.2 9.6 Cigarettes 353,766 26,421 28,874 223 244 8.3% 9.3% 13.4 12.3 9.0 8.1 3.8 3.5 29.6 30.0 Gudang Garam BUY 55,700 60,850 107,172 11,042 13,016 5,739 6,765 5,739 6,765 9.4% 17.9% 9.7 8.2 6.6 5.5 2.0 1.7 21.0 22.2 HM Sampoerna HOLD 2,120 2,100 246,594 15,379 15,858 132 136 132 136 7.5% 3.1% 16.0 15.6 11.2 10.7 6.6 6.5 41.9 42.1 Construction 91,843 10,809 12,157 145 163 10.3% 12.5% 8.5 7.6 9.13 8.39 0.9 0.8 11.4 11.6 Wijaya Karya BUY 1,930 3,000 17,312 2,714 3,046 303 340 314 352 20.2% 12.3% 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.6 0.9 0.8 15.2 15.1 Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 1,395 2,300 8,649 1,455 1,627 235 262 280 300 11.0% 11.8% 5.9 5.3 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 9.9 10.0 Adhi Karya BUY 1,030 2,000 3,668 745 799 209 224 289 315 12.3% 7.2% 4.9 4.6 3.9 3.5 0.4 0.4 9.4 8.7 Waskita Karya BUY 1,255 2,200 17,035 2,234 2,341 165 172 172 172 4.2% 4.8% 7.6 7.3 14.8 13.4 0.8 0.7 11.1 10.7 Waskita Beton BUY 266 410 7,012 899 1,007 34 38 34 38 15.8% 12.0% 7.8 7.0 8.8 7.8 0.8 0.8 10.8 11.3 Wika Beton BUY 382 680 3,329 574 644 66 74 66 74 13.2% 12.3% 5.8 5.2 4.0 3.7 0.9 0.8 15.8 15.8 Jasa Marga BUY 4,800 6,800 34,838 2,187 2,693 301 371 301 371 2.3% 23.1% 15.9 12.9 14.7 14.1 1.5 1.3 9.9 10.9 Consumer 565,924 21,108 22,709 256 276 8.1% 7.6% 26.8 24.9 15.9 14.8 6.5 5.9 25.1 24.8 Indofood CBP BUY 11,625 12,900 135,570 5,590 5,948 479 510 465 510 8.4% 6.4% 24.3 22.8 19.3 18.2 5.0 4.5 21.8 20.9 Indofood BUY 7,900 8,800 69,365 5,272 5,821 600 663 600 663 13.5% 10.4% 13.2 11.9 6.2 5.7 1.8 1.6 14.0 14.3 Unilever HOLD 8,225 9,200 313,784 8,009 8,506 210 223 210 223 7.3% 6.2% 39.2 36.9 27.3 25.8 41.1 41.0 105.2 111.3 Kino Indonesia BUY 3,150 5,000 4,500 295 328 206 230 206 230 -42.6% 11.3% 15.3 13.7 9.8 8.7 1.6 1.4 10.8 11.0 Mayora Indah BUY 1,910 2,600 42,705 1,943 2,106 87 94 88 96 11.2% 8.4% 22.0 20.3 11.8 10.6 3.9 3.4 18.9 17.9 Pharmaceutical 95,350 3,927 4,311 58 63 -68.5% 9.8% 24.3 22.1 19.0 17.1 4.0 3.7 17.4 17.2 Sido Muncul HOLD 1,195 1,470 17,925 895 1,000 60 67 60 67 11.5% 11.8% 20.0 17.9 16.7 14.7 5.5 5.2 28.3 29.9 Kalbe Farma BUY 1,515 1,800 71,016 2,851 3,115 61 66 61 66 8.8% 9.3% 24.9 22.8 15.8 14.4 3.9 3.5 16.6 16.4 Phapros BUY 985 1,200 827 110 121 130 144 130 144 13.7% 10.5% 7.6 6.8 3.8 4.5 0.4 0.4 7.7 6.1 Kimia Farma HOLD 1,005 1,350 5,582 71 75 13 14 13 14 6.5% 5.0% 78.1 74.4 17.2 15.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 Heavy Equipment 74,509 10,808 10,757 2,897 2,884 -4.5% -0.5% 6.9 6.9 3.0 2.8 1.1 1.0 17.0 15.4 United Tractors BUY 19,975 28,000 74,509 10,808 10,757 2,897 2,884 2,817 2,769 -4.5% -0.5% 6.9 6.9 3.0 2.8 1.1 1.0 17.0 15.4 Industrial Estate 18,262 1,965 1,874 31 30 15.1% -4.6% 9.3 9.7 6.3 5.9 1.1 1.1 12.2 11.2 Puradelta Lestari HOLD 278 300 13,399 1,352 1,026 28 21 28 21 16.7% -24.1% 9.9 13.1 8.6 10.9 1.8 1.8 18.6 14.0 Bekasi Fajar BUY 170 390 1,640 394 460 41 48 41 48 -10.9% 16.8% 4.2 3.6 4.1 3.3 0.3 0.3 8.4 9.2 Surya Semesta BUY 685 1,000 3,223 219 388 46 82 46 82 105.6% 77.5% 14.7 8.3 4.1 2.5 0.8 0.7 5.3 8.8 Media 44,420 3,712 4,215 128 145 10.7% 13.5% 12.0 10.5 8.3 7.2 2.4 2.1 20.8 21.1 Media Nusantara Citra BUY 1,585 1,900 22,628 2,303 2,577 161 181 161 181 10.1% 11.9% 9.8 8.8 7.0 5.9 1.7 1.6 18.8 18.8 Surya Citra Media BUY 1,475 1,725 21,793 1,409 1,638 95 111 95 111 11.6% 16.2% 15.5 13.3 10.6 9.4 3.7 3.3 25.3 26.1 Mining 137,157 14,381 14,711 162 166 0.0% 2.3% 9.5 9.3 4.1 3.9 0.9 0.9 9.7 9.5 Adaro Energy BUY 1,295 1,800 41,422 6,076 5,808 190 182 190 182 -12.7% -4.4% 6.8 7.1 2.8 2.6 0.7 0.7 10.6 9.7 Timah BUY 735 1,100 5,474 87 190 12 26 12 26 -138.5% 118.4% 62.9 28.8 7.6 7.1 0.9 0.9 1.4 3.1 Vale Indonesia BUY 3,110 4,400 30,902 1,258 1,519 127 153 127 153 85.1% 20.8% 24.6 20.3 7.2 6.3 1.1 1.0 4.5 5.2 Aneka Tambang BUY 740 1,100 17,783 724 790 30 33 30 33 -5.5% 9.2% 24.6 22.5 8.9 9.1 0.9 0.8 3.6 3.8 Bukit Asam BUY 2,240 3,700 25,806 4,191 4,387 364 381 364 381 3.0% 4.7% 6.2 5.9 4.0 4.0 1.3 1.1 21.7 20.4 Indo Tambangraya Megah BUY 10,750 15,000 12,147 1,730 1,676 1,531 1,483 1,531 1,483 -6.4% -3.1% 7.0 7.2 2.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 13.4 13.1 Harum Energy BUY 1,340 1,300 3,623 315 341 116 126 116 126 10.6% 8.2% 11.5 10.6 - 1.1 - 1.5 0.8 0.8 7.2 7.5 Plantation 31,139 1,396 1,213 160 139 358.8% -13.1% 22.3 25.7 7.6 8.0 1.1 1.1 5.1 4.3 Astra Agro Lestari BUY 11,925 15,000 22,952 940 843 488 438 488 438 502.5% -10.3% 24.4 27.2 7.9 8.1 1.2 1.2 4.9 4.3 PP London Sumatra BUY 1,200 1,800 8,187 456 370 67 54 67 54 207.6% -18.8% 18.0 22.1 6.7 7.3 1.0 0.9 5.4 4.3 Poultry 129,343 6,511 7,887 214 260 25.0% 21.1% 19.9 16.4 12.8 11.0 3.3 3.0 18.0 19.2 Charoen Pokphand HOLD 6,700 6,500 109,867 4,309 5,277 263 322 262 322 22.8% 22.5% 25.5 20.8 17.2 14.4 4.5 4.1 19.0 20.6 Japfa Comfeed BUY 1,490 2,000 17,473 1,868 2,207 159 188 170 199 29.8% 18.1% 9.4 7.9 6.6 6.0 1.5 1.3 16.6 17.1 Malindo Feedmill BUY 895 1,400 2,004 334 403 149 180 149 180 28.7% 20.6% 6.0 5.0 5.6 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.4 15.3 Property 81,120 6,570 7,607 55 63 -12.0% 15.8% 12.3 10.7 9.7 7.4 1.0 0.9 8.3 8.9 Alam Sutera HOLD 206 240 4,048 1,011 939 51 48 59 56 86.2% -7.1% 4.0 4.3 5.7 5.7 0.4 0.3 9.6 8.2 Bumi Serpong Damai HOLD 1,135 1,300 21,845 2,171 2,662 113 138 113 138 -30.6% 22.6% 10.1 8.2 8.5 6.1 0.7 0.6 7.2 8.2 Ciputra Development HOLD 915 1,100 16,983 706 1,028 38 55 38 55 -8.9% 45.5% 24.0 16.5 12.2 9.3 1.1 1.0 4.7 6.5 Pakuw on Jati BUY 535 640 25,765 2,116 2,321 44 48 46 50 -15.8% 9.7% 12.2 11.1 7.3 7.3 1.6 1.4 13.6 13.3 Summarecon HOLD 865 950 12,479 566 657 39 46 39 46 11.6% 16.0% 22.0 19.0 38.2 9.5 1.6 1.5 7.5 8.2 Utility 43,635 4,161 4,416 172 182 4.7% 6.1% 10.5 9.9 5.1 4.6 1.1 1.0 10.5 10.7 PGN BUY 1,800 2,700 43,635 4,161 4,416 172 182 167 163 4.7% 6.1% 10.5 9.9 5.1 4.6 1.1 1.0 10.5 10.7 Retail 43,928 2,902 3,451 107 128 9.1% 18.9% 15.1 12.7 8.4 7.8 3.5 3.1 24.5 25.6 Ramayana BUY 1,080 1,450 7,664 667 718 94 101 94 101 2.6% 7.6% 11.5 10.7 6.0 5.7 1.7 1.6 15.6 15.7 Matahari Department Store BUY 3,360 4,100 9,424 1,103 1,502 393 535 532 535 14.5% 36.2% 8.5 6.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.6 43.5 45.6 Ace Hardw are HOLD 1,565 1,550 26,840 1,132 1,231 66 72 66 72 8.1% 8.8% 23.7 21.8 18.1 16.4 5.1 4.5 22.5 21.9 Telco 495,607 28,113 31,406 149 166 12.5% 11.7% 17.6 15.8 5.5 5.0 3.0 2.7 17.8 18.2 Telekomunikasi Indonesia BUY 3,860 5,100 382,380 23,964 25,853 242 261 242 261 10.7% 7.9% 16.0 14.8 5.6 5.1 3.2 2.9 21.1 20.5 Indosat BUY 2,290 4,200 12,444 (801) (285) (147) (52) (147) (52) -22.2% 64.4% (15.5) (43.7) 2.7 2.4 1.3 1.3 (7.9) (3.0) XL Axiata BUY 2,940 4,100 31,423 1,161 1,591 109 149 109 149 66.8% 37.0% 27.1 19.8 3.7 3.2 1.6 1.5 5.9 7.7 Tow er Bersama HOLD 1,170 1,200 26,509 1,029 1,224 45 54 45 54 24.6% 19.0% 25.8 21.7 11.4 10.6 5.2 4.7 21.0 22.6 Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 840 960 42,852 2,760 3,023 54 59 54 59 11.4% 9.5% 15.5 14.2 9.1 8.3 4.1 3.7 27.9 27.3 Transportation 1,905 234 235 33 33 4.3% 0.6% 8.2 8.1 3.2 3.1 0.8 0.8 10.2 9.9 Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal BUY 565 950 1,027 164 172 90 95 90 95 5.6% 5.1% 6.3 6.0 2.9 2.8 0.8 0.8 13.7 13.6 Jasa Armada Indonesia BUY 166 175 877 70 63 13 12 13 12 1.4% -10.0% 12.5 13.9 4.1 4.4 0.8 0.8 6.4 5.6 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, January 31, 2020

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

LEADERS

Price as on Code 30-Jan-20 29-Jan-20 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating Kino Indonesia KINO 3,150 2,900 8.6 7.1 (8.2) (8.2) BUY BTPN BTPN 3,060 2,970 3.0 (1.3) (5.8) (5.8) HOLD Surya Semesta SSIA 685 665 3.0 0.7 4.6 4.6 BUY Astra Agro Lestari AALI 11,925 11,800 1.1 (4.0) (18.2) (18.2) BUY Charoen Pokphand CPIN 6,700 6,675 0.4 (6.3) 3.1 3.1 HOLD Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 1,930 1,930 - (4.9) (9.0) (9.0) BUY Semen Indonesia SMGR 12,300 12,300 - (5.7) 2.5 2.5 BUY Harum Energy HRUM 1,340 1,340 - (0.7) 1.5 1.5 BUY Sampoerna Agro SGRO 2,400 2,400 - (3.6) 0.8 0.8 BUY Malindo Feedmill MAIN 895 895 - (3.2) (10.9) (10.9) BUY Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS

Price as on Code 30-Jan-20 29-Jan-20 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating Semen Baturaja SMBR 334 354 (5.6) (12.1) (24.1) (24.1) SELL Vale Indonesia INCO 3,110 3,280 (5.2) (5.8) (14.6) (14.6) BUY Bekasi Fajar BEST 170 179 (5.0) (11.0) (21.3) (21.3) BUY Wika Beton WTON 382 402 (5.0) (9.5) (15.1) (15.1) BUY Summarecon Agung SMRA 865 910 (4.9) (8.5) (13.9) (13.9) HOLD Bukit Asam PTBA 2,240 2,330 (3.9) (7.1) (15.8) (15.8) BUY Waskita Karya WSKT 1,255 1,305 (3.8) (3.8) (15.5) (15.5) BUY Erajaya Swasembada ERAA 1,655 1,715 (3.5) (2.4) (7.8) (7.8) BUY Indocement INTP 17,225 17,825 (3.4) (7.3) (9.5) (9.5) HOLD Ciputra Development CTRA 915 945 (3.2) (7.6) (12.0) (12.0) BUY Sources: Bloomberg

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, January 31, 2020

PREVIOUS REPORTS

▪ Cigarette: A survey on higher prices: What will smokers do? ▪ Bank Mandiri: Still a keeper ▪ Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Stay micro, stay profitable ▪ Semen Indonesia: Year of consolidation ▪ Bank Negara Indonesia: Steady Progress ▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Solid grounds for optimism ▪ Telkom Indonesia: Ready to show its teeth ▪ Astra International: Stable market share in 2019 ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: December Outlook: Soft Trade Activities ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Moderation Transpired in 2019 ▪ 2020 Compendium : The Set and Drift ▪ Plantation: Positive market dynamics ▪ Astra Agro Lestari: Benefitting Despite Negative Volumes ▪ PP London Sumatra: Negative Volumes, Positive 2020 Earnings ▪ Mitra Adiperkasa: Triple Double Performance Continuing ▪ Property : Fewer incentives may dim the outlook ▪ Barito Pacific: Leading businesses with demanding valuation ▪ Chandra Asri Petrochemical: Long play game ▪ Telco: Content (is king) and Gaming 2020 parade ▪ Towers: Solid trajectory and tower plays in 2020 ▪ Consumer: In a good position to sustain growtht ▪ Banking: Boarding to the new period ▪ Coal Mining : Have coal prices bottomed? ▪ Surya Citra Media: Staying Resilient ▪ United Tractors: Komatsu sales remain soft in November 2019 ▪ BTPN Syariah: Fully valued ▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Lower monthly sales ▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Collabs and Digital as the Drivers ▪ Semen Indonesia: On track to meet our targets ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: 4Q19 Slower as Expected ▪ Astra International: Solid market share above 50% in November 2019 ▪ Bukit Asam: Higher production to support earnings ▪ November Outlook: Picking Up ▪ Cigarette: Navigating strong headwinds ▪ Construction: Moving in the right direction ▪ Puradelta Lestari : Double-edged sword ▪ Telco: Year-end Bonanza with content ▪ Bank Mandiri: Maintaining its focus ▪ Surya Semesta Internusa: Winter is over ▪ Pembangunan Perumahan: Cutting our targets ▪ Bank Negara Indonesia: Focusing on its funding cost ▪ Plantation: Dry and Feverish is Good For CPO Price ▪ November 2019 Inflation Update: Lower than Expected ▪ Telco: Takeaways, Kemkominfo says take action ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Solid Performance ▪ Waskita Beton Precast: Seeking greater independence ▪ Matahari Department Store: The Discounter, Discounted ▪ November 2019 Inflation Outlook: Remaining Mild

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, January 31, 2020

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Gedung BRI II Lt.23, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav.44-46 Bendungan Hilir, Tanah Abang – Jakarta Pusat 10210 Indonesia Indonesia Tel (62 21) 50914100 Fax (62 21) 2520990

Equity Research Team

Helmy Kristanto Stefanus Darmagiri Natalia Sutanto

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3500 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3530 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3508 S Head of Research, Strategy Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal Consumer, Tobacco

Maria Renata Eka Savitri Niko Margaronis

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3513 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3506 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3512 Construction, Toll Road, Cement Banking Telco, Tower, Utilities

Victor Stefano Ignatius Teguh Prayoga Andreas Kenny [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3503 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3511 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3509 Poultry, Property, Industrial Estate Basic Industries, Port Retail, Media, Plantation

Muhammad Naufal Yunas

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 Research Associate

Sales team

Vera Ongyono Ehrliech Suhartono Laksmita Armandani

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3120 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3132 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3125

Tuty Sutopo Upik Yuzarni Wisnu Budhiargo [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3121 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3137 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3117

Rendy Ben Philips Adeline Solaiman Thalia Kadharusman

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3148 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3503 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3124

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, January 31, 2020

Economic Calendar

Date Time Event Period

7-Jan-20 Consumer Confidence Index Dec 8-Jan-20 Foreign Reserves Dec 8-Jan-20 Net Foreign Assets IDR Dec 15-Jan-20 Exports YoY Dec 15-Jan-20 Imports YoY Dec 15-Jan-20 Trade Balance Dec 15-Jan-20 Local Auto Sales Dec 23-Jan-20 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 23-Jan 30-Jan-20 Danareksa Consumer Confidence Jan 3-Feb-20 Markit Indonesia PMI Mfg Jan 6-Feb-20 GDP YoY 4Q 6-Feb-20 GDP QoQ 4Q 7-Feb-20 Danareksa Consumer Confidence Feb

Source: Bloomberg

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Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT