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Syyria: Tilannekatsaus1 MUISTIO Julkinen 29.6.2015 SYYRIA: TILANNEKATSAUS1 LÄHDE: OCHA 1 Tilannekatsaus päivittää 11.12.2014 julkaistua Syyrian tilannekatsausta. 2 (44) Sisällysluettelo 1. Sota Syyriassa ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Tärkeimmät tapahtumat .................................................................................................... 6 2. Muutokset poliittisissa ja aseellisissa ryhmissä ...................................................................... 12 2.1. Syyrian hallinto ............................................................................................................... 12 2.2. Oppositio ........................................................................................................................ 13 2.3. Isis .................................................................................................................................. 15 2.4. Kurdit .............................................................................................................................. 17 3. Kansainvälinen yhteisö ja rauhanneuvottelut ......................................................................... 18 4. Sodan vaikutukset siviiliväestöön ja ihmisoikeusloikkaukset .................................................. 19 4.1. Humanitaarinen tilanne ................................................................................................... 20 5. Uskonnollisten ja etnisten vähemmistöjen tilanne Syyriassa .................................................. 22 6. Sisäisesti siirtymään joutuneet, turvapaikanhakijat ja pakolaiset ............................................ 25 6.1. Libanon........................................................................................................................... 25 6.2. Jordania.......................................................................................................................... 26 6.3. Turkki ............................................................................................................................. 26 6.4. Irak ................................................................................................................................. 27 6.5. Egypti ............................................................................................................................. 27 6.6. Eurooppa ........................................................................................................................ 28 7. Lähteet ................................................................................................................................... 29 3 (44) 1. Sota Syyriassa Syyrian sisällissodassa vahvimmiksi osapuoliksi ovat muodostumassa yhä enemmän presidentti Bashar al-Assadin hallinto ja Isis (Islamic State in Iraq and Sham, IS, Islamic State, Dawla Islamiya (fi al-Iraq wa al-Suria), Daesh) sekä muut islamisti-ryhmät, erityisesti Jabhat al-Nusra ja nk. maltillinen oppositio Vapaa Syyrian armeijan (Free Syrian Army, FSA, Jaish al-Suri al-Hurr) johdolla. Assadin joukot ovat kuitenkin talven 2014–2015 ja kevään 2015 aikana kohdanneet merkittäviä tappioita, kuten menettäneet Idlibin kaupungin ja Nessibin rajanylityspisteen Jordanian rajalla. Myös Damaskoksen ja Homsin yhdistävä tie sekä Aleppon kaupunki ovat uhattuina.2 Humanitaarinen kriisi on pahentunut entisestään. Tarkkaa sodassa menehtyneiden määrää ei tiedetä, mutta arviolta noin 220 000 ihmistä on kuollut ja lähes miljoona ihmistä haavoittunut. Syyrian sotaa monitoroivan järjestön, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), mukaan sodan aikana olisi kuollut 320 000 ihmistä ja haavoittunut 1,5 miljoonaa. Ruoasta, vedestä sekä terveyden- ja sairaanhoidosta on pulaa lähes koko maassa. Näin ollen myös hoidettavissa oleviin tauteihin ja sairauksiin kuollaan helpommin. Naapurimaihin pakenee yhä enemmän ihmisiä. Ne ovat asettaneet rajoituksia syyrialaisten maahantulon suhteen.3 2 Ford 24.4.2015; HIS Jane’s 360 12.4.2015 3 WHO September 2014; SOHR 16.6.2015 4 (44) Eri aseellisten ryhmien hallitsemat alueet Syyriassa 19.6.2015. Ruskea: hallinto; musta valkoisella renkaalla: Isis; vihreä valkoisella renkaalla: maltilliset kapinalliset; musta keltaisella renkaalla: Jabhat al-Nusra; vihreä mustalla renkaalla: Jabhat al- Nusran tukialuetta; lila: kurdit; punainen: kiisteltyjä alueita; keltainen: Institute for the Study of War –tutkimuslaitos tarkkailee alueita. Lähde: ISW 19.6.2015 (A). Kartat uusimmista taisteluista päivitetään osoitteessa http://www.understandingwar.org/syria-blog 5 (44) Maa-alueiden hallinta Syyriassa 19.6.2015. Punainen: Syyrian hallinto; ruskea: Jabhat al-Nusra; keltainen: maltillinen oppositio; musta: Isis; kelta-musta: Isis, Jabhat al-Nusra ja maltilliset kapinalliset; lila: YPG. Lähde ISW 19.6.2015 (A). 6 (44) 1.1. Tärkeimmät tapahtumat Tärkeimmät tapahtumat käydään läpi alueellisesti, alkaen Etelä-Syyriasta, Deraan provinssista, ja päätyen pohjoisen kautta Itä- ja Kaakkois-Syyriaan. FSA ja Jabhat al-Nusra saivat huhtikuussa 2015 Nassibin (Nessib) rajanylityspaikan hallintaansa Deraassa, Jordanian vastaisella rajalla. FSA on kieltänyt Jabhat al-Nusran merkittävän roolin rajanylityspisteen valtaamisessa. Se oli viimeinen Syyrian hallinnolla ollut rajanylityspiste Jordaniaan. Humanitaaristen tarvikkeiden sekä kauppatavaran, esimerkiksi ruoan, maahantuonti Syyriaan vaikeutui rajanylityspisteen valtaamisen jälkeen. Aiemmin sisällissodan aikana rajan yli tuotiin Nassibissa satoja tonneja ruokaa ja humanitaarista apua päivittäin. Myös kauppatavarat esimerkiksi Libanonin, Syyrian, Jordanian ja Persianlahden maiden välillä kulkivat sisällissodasta huolimatta. Rajan sulkeutuminen vaikuttaa myös Jordanian talouteen. Artikkelin ilmestymishetkellä ei ollut varmaa, tulevatko kapinalliset avaamaan rajan myöhemmin. YK:n mukaan paikalliset yritys- ja heimojohtajat ovat yrittäneet neuvotella hallinnon ja kapinallistaistelijoiden kanssa sen avaamisesta. On mahdollista, että Syyrian hallinto avaa toisen rajanylityspisteen Suweidan kuvernoraatissa hallitsemillaan alueilla. Pakolaiset voivat yhä kulkea muilla rajanylityspisteillä.4 Institute for the Study of Warin mukaan rajanylityspiste olisi nyt FSA:han liitoksissa olevien ryhmien hallinnassa Jabhat al- Nusran vetäydyttyä sieltä.5 Isis on tehnyt iskuja myös aiemmin rauhallisempana pysyneeseen Suwaidan provinssiin6 ja hallitsee alueita provinssin pohjoisosissa7. FSA valloitti osan Syyrian armeijan al-Thalan lentotukikohdasta 11.6.2015. Hallintoa tukevat National Defence Forces (NDF) -joukot ja paikalliset komiteat (popular committees), paikallisten druusien tukemina, onnistuivat saamaan tukikohdan takaisin seuraavana päivänä.8 Pääkaupunki Damaskoksessa taistellaan myös yhä. Oppositiolla on hallussaan alueita kaupungin itäosissa. BBC uutisoi 1.2.2015, että Damaskoksen vanhassa kaupungissa räjähti pommi ja neljä ihmistä kuoli. He olivat lähteiden mukaan libanonilaisia shiiapyhiinvaeltajia. BBC:n mukaan Damaskoksen vanhakaupunki on ollut tarkoin poliisien vartioima alue ja tähän asti säästynyt paljolti taisteluilta. Jabhat al-Nusra ilmoittautui iskun tekijäksi.9 Al-Jazeera uutisoi 26.1.2015 kymmenistä raketti-iskuista Damaskoksessa. Seitsemän ihmistä kuoli kapinallisten tekemissä iskuissa. Uutisen mukaan raketit olisi ammuttu Itä-Ghoutasta, jossa Jaish al-Islam on vahvin aseellinen ryhmä. Hallinto on pitkään pommittanut aluetta ilmasta. Edellisen viikon iskuissa ja taisteluissa kuoli noin 60 ihmistä.10 Al-Jazeera uutisoi kesäkuussa niin kutsutuista elefantti-raketeista Doumaan, Damaskoksen itäiseen esikaupunkiin. Raketit saavat nimensä kovasta äänestä, joka niistä lähtee. Ne ovat erittäin summittaisia ja aiheuttavat paljon tuhoa. Vähintään 27 ihmistä kuoli iskuissa ja yli 60 loukkaantui.11 4 Huffington Post 2.4.2015; Middle East Eye 6.4.2015; Oddone 14.4.2015; UN Security Council 22.5.2015, para 20, 31 5 ISW 7.-14.4.2015 6 SOHR 5.6.2015 7 ISW 29.5.2015 8 Stratfor 12.6.2015; Reuters 12.6.2015 9 BBC 1.2.2015; UN Security Council 22.5.2015, para 11-12 10 al-Jazeera 26.1.2015 11 al-Jazeera 17.6.2015 7 (44) Isis valtasi pääkaupunki Damaskoksessa sijaitsevan palestiinalaisten pakolaisleirin, Yarmukin, 4.4.2015. Alueella asui ennen sotaa noin 160 000 palestiinalaista ja 650 000 syyrialaista. Middle East Monitor uutisoi 5.4.2015, että noin 2000 asukasta on evakuoitu Yarmukista hallinnon kontrolloiman Zahiran alueelle Damaskoksessa Isisin hyökättyä Yarmukiin. Palestiinalaiset ryhmät ja hallinto ovat tehneet yhteistyötä Isisiä vastaan. Jabhat al-Nusra on taistellut poikkeuksellisesti alueella Isisin rinnalla. Alue oli hallinnon piirittämä joulukuusta 2012 ja ihmisillä on ollut pulaa esimerkiksi ruoasta ja lääkkeistä, monet ovat eläneet nälänhädän partaalla. Alueella on yhä eri lähteiden mukaan noin 16 000-18 000 ihmistä, muutama tuhat heistä on syyrialaisia. Hallinto on pommittanut aluetta Isisin vallattua sen.12 Talvella ja keväällä 2015 on taisteltu kiivaasti vuoristoisesta Qalamounin alueesta lähellä Libanonin rajaa. Alue on tärkeä sodan eri osapuolille sen sijainnin takia. Se toimii kuljetusreittinä esimerkiksi Libanonin ja Syyrian välillä sekä pohjoiseen kohti Homsia, etelään kohti Jordaniaa ja itään kohti Syyrian sisäosia. Alueella taistelee eri ryhmiä (hallinnon ja sitä tukevien ryhmien, kuten libanonilaisen Hizbollahin ja NDF:n, lisäksi esim. FSA, Jabhat al-Nusra ja Isis) ja lisäksi monet sisäisesti siirtymään joutuneet ovat paenneet alueelle.13 Isis ja Jabhat al-Nusra ovat poikkeuksellisesti tehneet yhteistyötä
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