Population decline and associated social phenomena: a case study in Asturias (Spain) Maties Reus Pons S2366894
[email protected] Master’s thesis Supervisor: prof. dr. C. H. Mulder Master of Science in Population Studies Population Research Centre Rijksuniversiteit Groningen Groningen, August 8th 2013 ABSTRACT. The aim of this study is to determine the major components of population change in Asturias, as well as to find empirical evidence of several social phenomena that can be expected to be associated with population decline from a theoretical point of view. These social phenomena are ageing, human capital, economic resources, housing, local services, and tourism. Bivariate linear regression models are calculated as sophisticated description to prove these associations, as the causality direction is not clear from a theoretical point of view. A multivariate regression model is calculated as well. For those variables for which no appropriate data is available to calculate a regression model, a more simple analysis and literature review is done to prove the associations. The relationships between population decline and ageing, human capital, economic resources, and local services have been proved. Tourism has been found to be a key variable that moderates and even reverses population decline in the areas where it is more developed. Unfortunately, the association between population decline and housing could not be proven due to a lack of appropriate data. The Koenker tests suggest that the relationships modelled are stationary and that geographically weighted regression models would not add any relevant information to the study. KEY WORDS: population decline, social phenomena, natural balance, migration balance, Asturias, Spain.