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Analyzing the Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States: a Study of Recent Activity

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Analyzing the Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States: a Study of Recent Activity JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY ANALYZING THE ISLAMIC EXTREMIST PHENOMENON IN THE UNITED STATES: A STUDY OF RECENT ACTIVITY BY JOAN NEUHAUS SCHAAN FELLOW IN HOMELAND SECURITY AND TERRORISM JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY AND JESSICA PHILLIPS INTERN, HOMELAND SECURITY AND TERRORISM PROGRAM JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY NOVEMBER 7, 2011 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States THESE PAPERS WERE WRITTEN BY A RESEARCHER (OR RESEARCHERS) WHO PARTICIPATED IN A BAKER INSTITUTE RESEARCH PROJECT. WHEREVER FEASIBLE, THESE PAPERS ARE REVIEWED BY OUTSIDE EXPERTS BEFORE THEY ARE RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE RESEARCH AND VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THESE PAPERS ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL RESEARCHER(S), AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. © 2011 BY THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY OF RICE UNIVERSITY THIS MATERIAL MAY BE QUOTED OR REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION, PROVIDED APPROPRIATE CREDIT IS GIVEN TO THE AUTHOR AND THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. 2 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States Abstract The study of terrorism strives to identify logic and patterns in a phenomenon that is in constant flux. Weapons, tactics, recruitment, financing, and other elements are fluid as they evolve and adapt to current conditions and the environment. Successful policy requires remaining abreast of the ever-evolving threat and responding accordingly. As such, U.S. policymakers need to understand the current dynamics and trends in order to mitigate and combat the threats to our nation. The purpose of this paper was to compile as much factual data as possible on U.S. citizens and individuals domiciled in the United States who have been reported in the news and have been suspected to have ties to Islamic extremist activity from approximately January 2009 to April 2011. The aim of the project was to explore any perpetrator patterns that presented themselves in the hopes that the revelations could help equip decision-makers with insight to the threat and assist the creation of proactive policies in the fight against terrorism derived from Islamic extremism. Background Methodology Research focused on individuals named in the media as having been subject to detentions, arrests, deportations, and other activities and having suspected ties to terrorist activity from approximately January 2009 to April 2011. The persons included reflect the researchers’ best efforts to identify persons fitting the criteria; it is comprehensive, but should not be considered exhaustive. Sources for factual data included the international and U.S. press, general Internet media, public records, and official court documents. To the extent there have been inaccuracies reported in the press, these inaccuracies may also be reflected in the data. Researchers did not have access to law enforcement or classified information, nor did they undertake any independent investigation beyond the research sources. It is important to note that persons involved in jihadist and/or terrorist activity may be charged with crimes that do not carry the word “terrorism.”For example, Carlos Bledsoe was tried for murder in the death of military 3 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States recruiters in Little Rock, Arkansas, although he claimed to be a member of Al Qaeda and claimed the act to be his “jihad.” Purpose The purpose of this paper has been to compile as much factual data as possible on U.S. citizens and individuals domiciled in the United States who have been reported in the news and have been suspected to have ties to terrorist activity from January 2009 to approximately April 2011. The data collected will serve as a foundation for future research, and to detect and quantify trends in an ever-changing threat environment. Providing the policymakers with this type of data can allow a factual discussion and diminish rhetoric. Consequently, policy can be crafted to address current and future needs in the face of change and adaptation by those determined to bring harm to our country and its citizens. The strength of this project lies in the collection and analysis of public data that can provide policymakers and researchers with basic information that can inform policy formulation.Subsequently, no policy recommendations or suggestions have been made. Instead, the data has been allowed to speak for itself, and bring factual data to the current public debate. Analysis The analysis group contained 104 persons. The first stage of the analysis compared the data of the analysis group to nationwide federal statistics on arrests in general (excluding strictly immigration offenses) and on the “violent offense” subgroup. The second stage explored the characteristics of the analysis group—age, country of origin, religion of birth family, education, criminal history, foreign travel, and associated organizations. Analytical Results The initial analysis compared the analysis group to national crime statistics compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics in 2009 for 183,986 persons who were arrested and booked 4 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States nationwide.1 For the comparison, aggregated national statistics (excluding immigration violations) and violent offense statistics were used. Gender The analysis group was 92% male and 8% female. The statistics associated with gender showed the analysis group to be comparable to the national statistics of violent offenders. Figure 1 Gender Comparison of Analysis Group to National 2009 Arrest Statistics 100% 92% 91% 90% 87% 80% 70% 60% Persons Studied 50% Federal Arrests Fed'l Violent Offense 40% Percentage of GroupPercentage 30% 20% 13% 9% 10% 8% 0% Male Female Gender Age Age was known for 100 persons in the analysis group. The statistics associated with age indicate the analysis group to be more heavily weighted to persons in their 20s. Of the persons studied for whom age was known, 64% were 30 years old or younger, versus 42% for those arrested for federal arrests nationwide, and 49% for those arrested for violent offenses. Further analysis of the 64% figure reveals 37% were 24 or younger and 27% were 25 to 30 years of age. Given that 5 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States a year or more of indoctrination occurs before the individual would be arrested, indicted, or killed, this indicates indoctrination occurred for a large portion of the group during the formative stages of the high school and college years. Figure 2 Age at Time of Arrest, Indictment, or Death 60% 52% 50% 40% 38% 36% 30% Persons Studied 30% Federal Arrests Fed'l Violent Offenses 24% 25% 20% Percentage of Observations Percentage 18% 16% 13% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6% 6% 6% 0% 15 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 50 51+ Years of Age Citizenship The statistics associated with citizenship indicate the analysis group is more heavily associated with non-citizens than violent offenders nationwide. Proportionally, there are more instances of “unknown” citizenship status in the analysis group, so figures are provided with and without the “unknown” data. 6 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States Table 1 Analysis Violent Group Offenses U.S. citizen 62 3,817 Non-citizen 14 298 Unknown 28 435 Total 104 4,550 Figure 3 Citizenship of Analysis Group v. National Violent Offenders 90% 84% 80% 70% 61% 60% 50% Analysis Group Violent offenses 40% Portion of Group 30% 27% 20% 14% 10% 10% 7% 0% US Citizen Non-Citizen Unknown Citizenship Taking out the cases where the status is not known, the non-citizens again tend to be more heavily represented in the analysis group. 7 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States Figure 4 Citizenship of Analysis Group v. National Violent Offenders (For those with known status) 100% 93% 90% 82% 80% US Citizen Non-Citizen 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 18% Percentage of GroupPercentage 10% 7% 0% Analysis Group Violent offenses In conclusion, analysis of the sample group indicates those suspected of involvement in Islamic extremist activities or with extremist groups tend to be men, 30 years of age or younger. In comparison to federal statistics on offenders, there is a higher propensity for the analysis group perpetrators to be younger and foreign-born than the general population of violent offenders. Detailed Analysis of Studied Group Detailed correlation analysis of the group is limited by the sample size. Nonetheless, points of interest are documented. Age For those 99 for whom age was known, the median age of the study group was 26. 8 The Islamic Extremist Phenomenon in the United States Figure 5 Age at Time of Incident 9 8 7 6 5 4 Number of Persons 3 2 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Years of Age Citizenship and Immigration Status Immigration status was noted for the group, but there is an inherent limitation: the sample is focused on persons in the United States suspected of being tied to Islamic extremism and/or foreign Islamic extremist organizations and on U.S. persons suspected of the same activities abroad. The sampling does not include those persons suspected of being tied to Islamic extremism and/or extremist organizations in the United States that, although they may have resided in the United States at one time, were not U. S. citizens and were not detained in the United States. With this caveat, the results indicate that 60% of the 104 persons studied are known to be U.S. citizens; 31% were born in the United States, 22% were naturalized citizens, and 7% were dual citizens. Foreign-born individuals may have become naturalized citizens; come to the United States on a student, investment, or work visa; become a permanent resident; or been domiciled within the country for a specified time period.
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