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For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.       ◦ Don’t bet so small that your opponent has odds to call with everything, but don’t bet so big so that you’re risking too much when you’re bluffing.  ◦  –   ◦    ◦    ◦ Bet a bit bigger when you’re out of .             isn’t out.     ◦        ◦  ◦                           pair of 8’s, so there may be no need to .  ◦  pair of 8’s that looked pretty good on the flop is a lot  ◦    ◦  ◦                              We will replay the hand from our opponent’s                    What do we put him on? Let’s look at what he would and wouldn’t continuation bet.   Let’s review the factors of when a player       ◦   ◦   ◦   ◦    ◦   ◦  ◦  ◦  ◦      ◦    ◦    ◦   Hands that he “bluffs”: ◦     ◦    ◦    ◦    ◦   Hands that he “bluffs”: ◦     ◦      You’re betting for more .               ◦ He’s already been showing plenty of , so it’s  ◦    ◦  we’re likely to bet.  So it’s unlikely that he has a nutty hand.      ◦  ◦  ◦              

  

                    (statistical “95% confidence interval” 

 Poker is among the things where it’s  

 “If you can’t spot the fish at the table, then you are the fish.”   

 Selective memory (remember bad beats, don’t 

  

 Hit lucky streak and consider it “all skill”; blame    

  opponent if you’re playing exploitively.

 Confidence is necessary to trust you’ve made    “pay $10 to see a movie” mentality

 –      

 Playing when you’re tired, just to get “unstuck” (win back the money you lost)

  

    hold’em 

     –

 – 

 –     –hold’em    –     –   –   –   We talked about the “decision mentality” in 

     

 Everyone thinks they’re unluckier than 

 Controlling “tilt”

,mage of damaged desN (c) source unNnown. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.     

    

 “life is luck”  “”  “One long session” MIT OpenCourseWare https://ocw.mit.edu

15.S50 How to Win at Texas Hold'em IAP 2016

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