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Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression

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Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations Student Graduate Works 3-2003 Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression John V. Bielecki Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Risk Analysis Commons Recommended Citation Bielecki, John V., "Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression" (2003). Theses and Dissertations. 4182. https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/4182 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Graduate Works at AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ESTIMATING ENGINEERING AND MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT COST RISK USING LOGISTIC AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION THESIS John V. Bielecki, Captain, USAF AFIT/GCA/ENC/03-01 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U. S. Government. AFIT/GCA/ENC/03-01 ESTIMATING ENGINEERING AND MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT COST RISK USING LOGISTIC AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Mathematics and Statistics Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Cost Analysis John V. Bielecki, BS Captain, USAF March 2003 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. AFIT/GCA/ENC/03-01 ESTIMATING ENGINEERING AND MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT COST RISK USING LOGISTIC AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION John V. Bielecki, BS Captain, USAF Approved: //Signed// Edward D. White, Major, USAF (Chairman) date //Signed// Michael A. Greiner, Major, USAF (Member) date //Signed// Michael J. Seibel (Member) date Acknowledgements I thank God, the country and the Pepsi Company® for helping me make it through this ordeal. I would like to especially thank Maj Edward White, my thesis advisor, for all his patience with my repetitive questions and his guidance on this project. I extend a sincere thanks to my committee members, Mr. Michael Seibel and Maj Michael Greiner for their constructive guidance on this thesis. I also want to thank my friend Captain Vince Sipple for his invaluable assistance in helping complete this thesis and for the opportunity to follow-up on his original idea. I would like to thank my wife for her encouragement, inspiration and infinite patience of this undertaking. Finally, thanks to my children, whose boundless energy kept me on track with what is truly important. John V. Bielecki iv Table of Contents Page Acknowledgements.......................................................................................... iv List of Figures................................................................................................ viii List of Tables ................................................................................................... ix Abstract..............................................................................................................x I. Introduction ...................................................................................................1 General Issue ..............................................................................................1 Specific Issue..............................................................................................2 Scope and Limitations of the Study............................................................3 Research Objectives ...................................................................................5 Chapter Summary.......................................................................................6 II. Literature Review.........................................................................................7 Chapter Overview.......................................................................................7 The Acquisition Process.............................................................................7 The Environment......................................................................................10 Risk and Uncertainty ................................................................................11 Characteristics...................................................................................12 Risk Estimating Methods..................................................................12 Past Research in Cost Growth ..................................................................15 Chapter Summary.....................................................................................23 III. Methodology.............................................................................................24 Chapter Overview.....................................................................................24 Database ...................................................................................................24 SAR Limitations.......................................................................................27 The Baseline Problem .......................................................................28 Variation of Reported Program Costs...............................................29 Inconsistency in SAR Preparation Guidelines and Techniques........29 Incomplete Database.........................................................................30 Unknown Funding Levels for Programs...........................................30 Joint Programs...................................................................................31 Reporting Effects of Cost Changes Rather Than Root Causes.........31 v Page Data Collection.........................................................................................32 Exploratory Data Analysis .......................................................................33 Response Variables ..................................................................................35 Predictor Variables ...................................................................................35 Program Size Variables.....................................................................36 Physical Type of Program.................................................................36 Management Characteristics.............................................................37 Schedule Characteristics ...................................................................38 Other Characteristics.........................................................................39 Logistic Regression ..................................................................................41 Multiple Regression..................................................................................44 Chapter Summary.....................................................................................45 IV. Results and Discussion .............................................................................46 Chapter Overview.....................................................................................46 Preliminary Data Analysis........................................................................47 Logistic Regression Results – Model A ...................................................52 Multiple Regression Results – Model B...................................................63 Rolling Validations...................................................................................72 Chapter Summary.....................................................................................74 V. Conclusions................................................................................................76 Chapter Overview.....................................................................................76 Restatement of the Problem......................................................................76 Limitations................................................................................................77 Review of Literature.................................................................................78 Review of Methodology...........................................................................78 Restatement of Results .............................................................................80 Recommendations ....................................................................................81 Possible Follow-on Theses.......................................................................82 Chapter Summary.....................................................................................83 Appendix A – Schedule Cost Growth Five Variable A Model .......................84 Appendix B – Schedule Cost Growth Four Variable A Model .......................85 Appendix C – Estimating Cost Growth Seven Variable A Model ..................86 vi Page Appendix D – Schedule Cost Growth #1 Four Variable B Model ..................87 Appendix E – Schedule Cost Growth #2 Four Variable B Model...................88 Appendix F – Estimating Cost Growth Five Variable B Model......................89 Appendix G – Model A Validation Results.....................................................90 Appendix
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