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Equity Valuation Report on Square Pharmaceuticals Limited (Update)

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Equity Valuation Report on Square Pharmaceuticals Limited (Update) Equity Valuation Report on Square Pharmaceuticals Limited (Update) (This document has been prepared by the Research team of EBL Securities Limited) for information only of its clients. No part of this report should be copied or used in any other report or publication or anything of that sort without any reference given or permission taken from the authorized publisher of this report) Pharma, the multi billion industry of the country, has Expected to grow at CAGR of 15% over the annual turnover over BDT next 5 years 205 bn now Square is the market leader since 1985 Quality , Innovation & Square Pharma Corporate governance Holds 16.95% leads to be the number market share one in Pharma Industry. Square was in High Growth Trajectory which may slow down due to stiff competition Consistent 26.24% Mix of 12.20% 8.20% 10.45% Cash and Stock Dividend Historical Expected Historical Expected 5 Years Revenue CAGR 5 Years NPAT CAGR Square Pharmaceuticals Kenya Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary in Kenya, is likely to bring the next growth story Project Initiation Commencemnet of Operation Investment June 7, 2017 2020 USD 7-8 mn Capacity 2bn Tablets & 60 mn Bottles of EPZ in Athi River Liquid 10 year corporate income tax Mixture of Debt & Equity will holiday lead to tax shield Square Pharmaceuticals Limited DSE: SQURPHARMA BLOOMBERG: SQUARE:BD Analyst: Current Price: BDT 248.3 Mohammad Rehan Kabir rd Valuation date: 23 May, 2019 [email protected] Company Fundamentals Government has declared 10% cash incentives for export Sector Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals of pharmaceutical products. Approximately 4% of Market Cap (BDT mn) 195,910 company revenue is generated from exporting pharma Equity Market Weight 5.7% products. Current export coverage to 42 countries and Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 7,890.1 submitted several ANDAs to USFDA for approval. No. of Share Outstanding (in mn) 789.0 Free-float Shares (Inst.+For.+ Public) 65.6% The company is setting up a subsidiary manufacturing plant in Nairobi, Kenya. Square Pharma has invested BDT 1-Year Avg. Daily Turnover (BDT mn) 94.5 216.26 mn as share money deposit in this subsidiary as on 1-Year Avg. Daily Volume 349,067 June, 2018. Ground development and construction works Current P/E 15.62 for this formulation plant is underway which is expected Current P/NAV 3.03 to be completed by 2020. 52-week price range (BDT) 245.5-299.0 The company is allocated three plots in API Park in 2019-20 2020-21 2017-18 2018-19 Munshigonj. It is expected that the production cost will Exp. Exp. significantly decrease with the commercial operation of Financial Information (BDT mn) API Park. Net Sales 39,654 42,988 46,282 49,776 Square Pharmaceuticals Limited has 26 blockbuster drugs Gross Profit 19,564 21,463 23,141 24,938 among the top 100 medicines sold in Bangladesh EBITDA 15,846 17,831 19,524 21,115 according to IMS Q3 2018. Operating Profit 12,781 14,065 15,480 16,565 Profit After Tax 10,491 11,553 12,746 13,639 Square Pharma maintains large cash and cash Total Assets 61,273 70,140 80,003 90,713 equivalents. Current balance of cash and cash equivalent Total Debt 0 0 767 1,052 is almost equal to the replacement cost of their PPE. After Total Equity 57,841 64,659 74,760 84,847 Renata (Solo), Square Pharma has highest Operating Retained Earnings 46,159 52,242 61,832 71,328 Profit margin, Net profit margin in the Pharma Industry Cash 16,980 25,323 29,570 34,316 of Bangladesh. It’s latest ROA and ROE also exceeds its Dividend (C/B)% 36%/7% 40%/5% 50%/5% 60%/2.5% close competitors. Margin (50%/5 (60%/2.5 Square Pharma is an unlevered firm thus less vulnerable Gross Profit 49.3% 49.9% 50.0%%) 50.1%%) to interest rate movements. To avail tax benefits, EBITDA 40.0% 41.5% 42.2% 42.4% company will use debt financing for its Kenya Subsidiary Operating Profit 32.2% 32.7% 33.4% 33.3% but due to tax shield this won’t have any noteworthy Pretax Profit 34.9% 36.0% 36.2% 36.0% impact on its net profit. Net Profit 26.5% 26.9% 27.5% 27.4% Pharma Industry is oligopolistic in nature where Square Growth Pharmaceuticals Limited is the market leader with 16.95% Sales 8.5% 8.4% 7.7% 7.5% of market share. But recently other players are also Gross Profit 7.1% 9.7% 7.8% 7.8% entering into the industry and rivalry becomes intensified Operating Profit 3.9% 10.0% 10.1% 7.0% resulted in market share lose by Square Pharma. Retaining Net Profit 7.9% 10.1% 10.3% 7.0% current share may become a challenge for Square Pharma Profitability in days ahead. ROA 17.1% 16.5% 17.0% 16.0% ROE 18.1% 17.9% 18.3% 17.1% We initiated a valuation based on Discounted Cash Flow Payout Ratio 25.3% 27.3% 32.5% 38.3% method and Relative Valuation method while assuming next 5- PEG ratio 2.59 1.97 1.75 2.41 Years’ CAGR of revenue will be 8.20% (which is 12.20% now). Leverage Debt Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.2% Price-Volume Movement of SQURPHARMA 2,000,000 Debt-Equity 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.2% 350 VOLUME CLOSEP* Altman Z-Score 40.7 28.1 30.6 28.9 330 1,500,000 Valuation 310 1,000,000 EPS (BDT) 13.3 14.6 16.2 17.3 290 NAVPS (BDT) 78.4 81.9 94.8 107.5 270 P/E 20.6 20.0 18.1 16.9 500,000 250 P/NAV (x) 3.7 3.6 3.1 2.7 EV/EBITDA 12.6 11.5 10.9 10.5 230 0 EV/Sales 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 Bangladesh Pharmaceutical Industry: the story of an emergent generic drugs hub in Asia According to Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI) and Directorate General of Drug Administration (DGDA), approximately 257 licensed pharmaceutical manufacturers are operating in Bangladesh and about 150 are Market Size of Pharmaceuticals Product of Pharmaceuticals Bangladesh and Growth (Amount In US Dollar Million) industry of Bangladesh functional. These manufacturing $2,500 40.0% Local Sales Growth has experienced a CAGR companies meet around 97% of local 35.0% 33.5% $2,000 of 15.6% in last 5 years, demand. Specialized products like 30.0% expected to become an vaccines, anti-cancer products and 25.0% $1,500 industry of $5.11b by 22.6% hormone drugs are imported to 20.0% 2023 with an expected meet the remaining 3% of the $1,000 16.3% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% growth of 15% demand. 80% of the drugs produced 10.1% 10.0% in Bangladesh are generic drugs, rest $500 6.2% 5.0% 20% are patented drugs. According $797 $977 $1,136 $1,206 $1,375 $1,835 $2,020 $- 0.0% to Director General of Drug 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Administration (DGDA), the Source: Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industry & EBLSL Research industry has 29,351 registered of allopathic medicine, 2,400 registered Homeopathic drugs, 6,207 registered Unani Drugs, 524 registered Herbal drugs and 3,998 registered Ayurvedic drugs. Domestic market value of Pharmaceutical products in Bangladesh has shown an increasing trend over the past few years and the market size is BDT 205.12 billion now1. However, this number does not reflect total market size because IQVIA report does not include homeopathic, unani, ayurvedic or herbal medicine information. According to industry experts, market size of pharmaceuticals may reach about $5.11 bn (or BDT 434.35 bn considering $1 = BDT 85) by 20232. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the industry has contributed 1.83% to the GDP in 2017-18 at constant prices. Burgeoning Exports of Pharmaceuticals Product from Bangladesh- Currently Being Exported to 145 Countries around the World According to Bangladesh Export Revenue of Pharmaceuticals Product and Association of Pharmaceutical Growth (Amount In US Dollar Million) Exports of Industries (BAPI), approximately $120.00 30.00% Pharmaceuticals 1,200 pharmaceutical products $100.00 25.00% 24.0% products crossed $100 received registration for export $80.00 20.00% mn benchmark in 2017- over the last two years and are 16.0% $60.00 15.7% 15.00% 18 with a 5-year CAGR being exported to more than 145 13.0% of 11.6%. Target for 8.9% countries including USA, UK, $40.00 10.00% 2018-19 is $112.19 on 8.1% 8.6% Australia and Africa. According to 4.9% which 89% have been $20.00 5.00% Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), $44.30 $48.25 $59.82 $69.24 $72.64 $82.11 $89.17 $103.46 achieved within 9 $- 0.00% months of this fiscal in the fiscal year 2017-18, 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 year Bangladesh has exported Source: Bangladesh Export Promotion Bureau & EBLSL Research pharmaceuticals product worth USD 103.46 million as against USD 89.17 million in 2016-17. Over the last 7 years, export revenue CAGR was nearly 10%. However, export sales only contributes 5.12% of pharmaceuticals market in 2017-18. Hence, the contribution of export sales in pharmaceuticals industry is low.
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