Efficiency in , Parr Rosson, Flynn Adcock, Michelle Niemeyer, Emmy Williams, and John Robinson

Center for North American Studies Department of Agriculture Economics A&M University, College Station

Based on work done by Aaron Hobbs, unpublished paper “The U.S./Mexico Water Dispute: Impacts of Increased Irrigation in Chihuahua, Mexico” May 2003

U.S./MexicoU.S./Mexico WaterWater • Allocations of Rio Bravo/ Under 1944 Treaty

• Mexico Water Deficit – 726,153 acre-feet – Lost LRGV Business Activity from Withheld Minimum Annual Inflows: $135 Million (John Robinson)

• Issues/Problems – Drought Conditions and Greater Water Demand – Low Irrigation Efficiency (40%) – Population & Trade Growth Along Border – Ground Water Depletion Objectives • Overview of Water Treaty Provisions

• Review Cropping Patterns in Chihuahua, MX

• Estimation of Irrigation Water Use in Chihuahua & Savings from Improved Irrigation Efficiency

• Discuss Potential Policy Options to Mitigate Impacts of Water Debt with Mexico 19441944 WaterWater TreatyTreaty Administered by International Boundary & Water Commission (IBWC-El Paso) Delimits Rights to International Waters of Tijuana, , and Rio Grande (Rio Bravo) Rivers from Fort Quitman, Texas to the U.S. Receives 1/3 of Total Flows or Minimum of 350,000 Acre Feet (af)/Year from Rio Grande River Below Fort Quitman Mexico Receives 1.5 million af/Year from the Colorado Mexico Receives 2/3 of Rio Grande, ALL of Waters from San Juan & Alamo Rivers & Half of the Flow from Rio Grande Below Falcon Dam 19441944 WaterWater TreatyTreaty ContingenciesContingencies forfor DroughtDrought • Extraordinary Drought-What is it? – When Mexico has Difficulty Delivering Run- off of 350,000 af/Year • Any Deficiencies at the End of 5 Year Cycle SHALL Be Made Up in Following Cycle • Whenever Conservation Capacities of U.S. in Two International Are Filled, a Cycle SHALL Be Terminated & All Debits Fully Paid TributariesTributaries && ReservoirsReservoirs

Rio Grande Rio Bravo del Norte •Ft. Quitman Chihuahua Presidio •Amistad 80% Capacity Chihuahua 43% Capacity Delicias 65%65% ofof InflowsInflows LRGV •Falcon Reservoir 100%Capacity NuevoRio San Juan Basin Leon Tamaulipas StudyStudy AreaArea

Francisco I. Madero Reservoir, Delicias 282,000 acre-feet capacity, 134,000 acre-feet on July 20, 2004 Present level: 1,002,480 acre-feet (2/14/05)

Francisco I. Madero Reservoir, Delicias 282,000 acre-feet capacity, 134,000 acre-feet on July 20, 2004 Present level: 1,002,464 acre-feet (1//12/05) Irrigated Crop Production, Chihuahua, Mexico, 1980-2003

Area (Million H. Acres) and Production (Million Metric Tons) Yield (MT/HA) 6 5.00 Yield Area Production 4.26 5 3.61 4.00 3.49 3.54 3.12 3.32 3.06 3.02 2.72 4 3.00 2.21 3 2.00 1.63 1.04 1.11 2 0.83 0.79 0.80 0.78 0.80 0.65 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.75 1.00 0.55

1 0.00 '80 '85 '90 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 SAGARPA Irrigation Crop Acreage in Chihuahua, MX 2003

Total Acreage: 797,289 Top 5 Crops, 66.7%Alfalfa Dry Beans 18.6% 6.8% Pecans 8.1%

Corn Apples 19.6% 7.2%

Cotton Cut Oats Others 10.9% 4.0% 15.3% Veg/Melons 9.5%

Estimates: CNAS; Total of 27 crops included in study. PenmanPenman--MonteithMonteith IrrigationIrrigation WaterWater UseUse ExampleExample • Alfalfa ETo: 56.45 inches • Crop Coefficient: 0.8833 • Seasonal ETo: 56.45 * 0.8833 = 49.86 • Annual Rainfall: 13.78 inches • Estimated Irrigation Water Use: 49.86 – 13.78 = 36.08 acre-inches • Estimated Irrigation Water Use in Acre- Feet for Year: 36.08 / 12 = 3.01 acre-feet Irrigation Water Use in Chihuahua, MX Million Acre-Feet

5.0 4.5

4.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3

3.0 2 2.2 2.0

1.0

0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Author's Estimates, CNAS Estimated Irrigated Water Use in Chihuahua, MX 2003 (1,000 acre foot)

Apples 404 Pecans 360

Veg/Melons 337 Corn 612

Cotton 333

Wheat 83

Others 386 Alfalfa 1116

Estimates: CNAS; Total of 27 crops included in study. ApparentApparent IrrigationIrrigation EfficiencyEfficiency --DeliciasDelicias IrrigationIrrigation DistrictDistrict-- Crop Percent Alfalfa 38 Pecans 36 Peanuts 14 Corn 32 Wheat 58

Furrow & Flood Irrigation Dominant, Some Center Pivot, Sprinkler Systems in Use WhatWhat isis ValueValue ofof ChihuahuaChihuahua IrrigationIrrigation Water?Water?

• $424/acre-foot ($652/ac in LRGV) – Total Value of Irrigated Production/Total Water Used Net of Rainfall • Improving Irrigation Efficiency from 40 to 60% in Chihuahua – Saves 1.1 million acre-feet/year – Valued at $472 million/year PolicyPolicy OptionsOptions

• Retaliatory Duties on Mexican Agricultural Products • Direct Compensation for Texas Producers • Divert Flows from • Construct New Water Delivery System • Improve Existing Water Delivery Systems & Adopt More Efficient Irrigation Technology in U.S. and Mexico ConclusionsConclusions • Irrigation Water Use Has Increased • Switch from Surface Water to Aquifer • Switch to More Water Intensive Crops & Higher Yields • Antiquated Institutional Framework? • Extraordinary Drought Needs Rigorous Definition • Stakeholder Input Crucial to Future • Environmental Consequences of Population & Trade Growth Are Important