UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE

Department of Civil Engineering

Development of water allocation framework for sustainable water resources management in Mara River Basin in Kenya

By

JOYCE NJIGUA

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)

July 2006

UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING MSc IWRM PROGRAMME

Development of water allocation framework for sustainable water resources management in Mara River Basin in Kenya

By

Joyce Njigua

Supervised by:

Eng. Makurira Eng. Kaseke Prof. Francis Mutua

2006

ABSTRACT

Water allocation for domestic use, agriculture, hydro-power, tourism and other water demands while maintaining environmental integrity remains a major challenge to water managers. The new Kenya Water Act of 2002 which is based on IWRM principles advocates for sustainable, economical and equitable allocation of water. The Water Act also recognizes environmental water needs for maintenance of aquatic systems. However, the Water Act is silent on the methods or techniques of water allocation and how the country intends to cater for ecological reserve.

This research paper aims to develop a water allocation decision support tool that can help the water managers incorporate environmental water allocation in water allocation procedures. The study was carried out in Mara river basin shared by Kenya and Tanzania which hosts the world’s famous Masai Mara game reserve in Kenya and Serengeti National Park on the Tanzanian side. The study applied the WAFLEX model to assess the implications of reserving 5% MAR on each tributary as ecological reserve on other users. The impacts of increased economic development on the downstream flows in the basin were also assessed.

The results of the study indicated that Mara River has a mean annual flow of 1162 Mm3/a. Of this amount, only 22 Mm3/a is committed on the Kenya side. The study found out that, with introduction environmental flows of 1.14 Mm3/month along Nyangores, 0.96 Mm3/month along Amala and 4.8 Mm3/month along Mara river, the water users experienced less satisfaction levels. It was also found out that, increased economic development will seriously reduce the downstream flow by the year 2021. The downstream flows decreased from 52.4 Mm3/yr to 2 Mm3/year from 2006 to 2021. This will inevitably affect the survival of the Masai Mara game reserve, flows in Tanzania and inflows to Lake Victoria which forms the headwaters if the wider River Nile.

The study shows that reserving 5% of the MAR for the environment coupled with increased economic development will have little significant impacts on the system at the present moment but more negative impact would be experienced after the projected 20 years. There were no shortages recorded during the studied time series without the environment but users experienced shortages of between 2-10% when the environment was introduced. The shortages increased up to between 26-99% when the present demands were projected to year 2021 and taking environmental flow requirements into consideration. The study recommends proper determination of environmental flows for the river.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 i

DECLARATION

I declare to the Registrar of examinations at the University of Zimbabwe that this dissertation is my own, unaided work. It is submitted for the Masters of Science degree in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), Department of Civil Engineering in the University of Zimbabwe, Harare. To the best of my knowledge, it has not been submitted before, for any degree or examination in any University.

Name……………………………………………………………………………………….

Signed………………………………………………………………………………………

……………………….day of…………………2006

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 ii

DEDICATION

To my parents, Atanas and Margaret, For your prayers, vision and wishes, You gave me the best, You sacrificed every resource at your disposal Put me on the academic path always… And you never gave up on me. To my angel, Christine Thuguri, this is a challenge to you. You can do better than this.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I thank My GOD for his endless blessings! Bless his HOLY NAME!

I wish to express my heartfelt gratitude to all those who contributed in one way or the other for making this research paper a success. I am greatly indebted to my supervisors Eng. Makurira, Eng. Kaseke and Prof. Mutua for their logical guidance and support. I know I will never be able to thank you enough. Eng. Makurira thanks so much for all your sacrifices, you guided me with a lot of patience me even in my confusion, you always gave me an ear, you were always there whenever I called on you.

Special thanks also go to the staff of the ministry of Water and Irrigation, Mr Mogusu, Mr. D. Kimani and all those who assisted me in one way or the other. I also thank the staff of Narok, Bomet and Transmara water offices. Mr. Anakeya, i really appreciated your kind assistance. I am also greatly indebted to the District Livestock Officer, Bomet; Kopejo, Environment Office Bomet; Chebusit of MRWUA for all the support you extended to me. To my friends, Mary Waweru, Rispha & Mutie Simon of RCMRD thanks so much.

To my family, your encouragement and support have been quite immense. My dad and mum this is a product of your sweat! To Gabriel & Christine, thank you for bearing the long spells of my absence. I know with time, you will appreciate why i left you to endure the rural hard life that you had to get used to, the hard way. To my dear brothers and sisters no words can explain my gratitude to you. John, your support all through my study, is highly appreciated.

To Luckson, Zainab & Johnson, I can’t begin telling you now! To my classmates, without you, I could have been alone…! To all the staff of Civil Engineering, thanks to you all. I am also quite grateful to the WATERnet for the scholarship to undertake this programme. May God bless you work!

May God abundantly bless you all, with GOD everything is possible!!

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 iv

LIST OF ABBREVIATION AND ACRONYMS

CAACs Catchment Area Advisory Commitees

CMAs Catchment Management Agencies

DWARF Department of Water Affairs and Forestry

FOC Friends of Conservation

GWP Global Water Partnership

ICWE International Conference on Water and Environment

IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management

KWFG Kenya Working Forest Group

MAR Mean Annual Runoff

MDG’s Millennium Development Goals

MRBMI Mara River Basin Management Initiative

MWLD Ministry of Water and Livestock Development

NRC Nairobi Rotary Club

NWRMS National Water Resources Management Strategy

SCCs Sub-Catchment Councils

UNCED United Nations Commission on Environment and Development

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

WRMA Water Resources Management Authority

WSSD World Summit on Sustainable Development

ZINWA Zimbabwe National Water Authority

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 v

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ...... I DECLARATION...... II DEDICATION...... III ACKNOWLEDGEMENT...... IV LIST OF ABBREVIATION AND ACRONYMS...... V TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... VI LIST OF TABLES ...... VIII LIST OF FIGURES ...... IX CHAPTER ONE...... 1 INTRODUCTION...... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND INFORMATION ...... 1 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT...... 3 1.3 JUSTIFICATION ...... 3 1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ...... 4 CHAPTER 2 ...... 6 LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 6 2.1 WATER ALLOCATION PRINCIPLES ...... 6 2.2 THE 2002 WATER ACT...... 7 2.3 WATER POLICY- SESSIONAL PAPER NUMBER 1 OF 1999...... 8 2.4 NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT STRATEGY (NWRMS)...... 8 2.5 WATER ALLOCATION SYSTEMS ...... 9 2.6 WATER ALLOCATION IN ZIMBABWE AND SOUTH AFRICA...... 10 2.7 WATER RESOURCES MODELING ...... 10 2.8 ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS ALLOCATION ...... 14 2.9 THE NEED FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WATER ALLOCATION...... 14 3.0 WATER CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ...... 15 CHAPTER 3 ...... 17 STUDY AREA...... 17 3.1 COUNTRY’S BACKGROUND...... 17 3.2 PHYSIOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION OF MARA...... 19 3.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES...... 23 3.5 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT...... 24 3.6 WATER QUALITY...... 24 3.7 WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN MARA...... 25 CHAPTER 4 ...... 26 RESEARCH METHODS AND MATERIALS ...... 26 4.1 DATA COLLECTION AND SOURCES ...... 26 4.2 ESTIMATION OF WATER DEMANDS...... 27 4.3 PROJECTED WATER DEMANDS...... 32 4.4 WAFLEX MODEL ...... 33 CHAPTER 5 ...... 39 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION...... 39

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 vi CHAPTER 6 ...... 44 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 44 REFERENCES...... 47 APPENDICES ...... 50 APPENDIX 1: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN MARA RIVER BASIN (1999, CENSUS)...... 50 APPENDIX 2: DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY AND AGRICULTURAL DEMANDS...... 52 APPENDIX 3: ESTIMATED WATER DEMANDS FOR HOTELS ...... 53 APPENDIX 4: HEALTH FACILITIES IN BOMET AND NAROK DISTRICTS ...... 54 APPENDIX 5: SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF WAFLEX MODEL IN MS EXCEL...... 55 APPENDIX 6: VARIATION OF RIVER FLOWS OVER THE YEARS ...... 1 APPENDIX 7: WATER SHORTAGES WITH ENVIRONMENT AND WITHOUT THE ENVIRONMENT...... 2 APPENDIX 8: WATER SHORTAGES AS A RESULT OF ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASED WATER DEMANDS ...... 3

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 vii

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1: Application of WAFLEX model…………………………………………..13

Table 3.1: Land use/land cover changes in Mara River Basin………….……….…....22

Table 4.1: Rainfall stations in Mara river Basin………………………………………26

Table 4.2: Livestock population distribution in Mara river basin.………...……….....32

Table 4.3: Existing and projected annual water demand (m3/year) for Mara river basin……………………………………………………………………………………33

Table 6.2: Reduction of flows on the downstream with environmental water demand.41

Table 6.3: Reduction of flows as a result of increased future irrigation, domestic and hospitality water demands……………………………………………………………..43

Table 6.4: Percentage shortages as a result of environment and increased water demands ………………………………………………………………………………………….43

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 viii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3.1: Institutional framework for water resources management in Kenya…………….18

Figure 3.2: The Location and administrative districts in Mara river basin...... 19

Figure 3.3: The Mara river basin with gauging stations along Mara river ...... 20

Figure 4.1: Conceptualization of Mara river water resources system…………………………

Figure 6.2: Water use by sectors...... 39

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 ix CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Information Over the past few decades, almost all developing and developed countries have embarked on water sector reforms guided by Integrated Water Resources Management Principles. Water policies and regulations are prepared in order to embody new principles and strategies for integrated water resources management (Global Water Partnership, 2000). The principles are enshrined in the report of the International Conference on Water and Environment (ICWE) held in Dublin in 1992 commonly known as Dublin Principles (GWP-TAC, 2000). These principles recognize the finite and vulnerable nature of resources, the need for more participatory process, participation of women in water management and development and the economic value of water.

Throughout the world there is broad consideration of freshwater as a finite and vulnerable resource (Agenda 21: UNCED, 1992), essential to sustain life, development and environment. The development of any country depends on the management of available water resources. Equitable access to water, or to the benefits derived from using water, is critical to eradicating poverty and promoting growth. This is very important in most developing countries, which are still facing significant inequities in accessing water.

Ensuring sustainable development while maintaining environmental integrity is increasingly becoming a popular debate both developing and developed countries. This is as a result of increased population growth, developed technology, improved lifestyles hence exerting an increasing pressure on the available natural resources. The need for environmental sustainability also recognized and emphasized in the seventh goal of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s) (UNDP, 2003).

Riverine ecosystems are threatened worldwide by unsustainable development as well as the over-utilization of often limited fresh water resources. More than half of the world’s major rivers are polluted and/or are drying up in their lower reaches because of overuse (Scanlon, 2004). Over exploitation of water resources for domestic, agricultural, industrial, hydro- power generation is posing a major threat to freshwater resources. This may trigger conflicts between downstream and upstream water users and among different water use sectors.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 1

Water allocation remains a major challenge in most parts of the world due increased competition and dwindling freshwater resources. Kenya faces serious challenges with regard to management of its water resources. The country is classified as a water scarce country (650 m3 of renewable water resources per capita per annum and it is projected to decline to 235m3 by the year 2025 (NWRMS, 2004).The recognition of environment as legitimate user may seem to compound the problem of water allocation by reducing the available water for other uses. Increased water scarcity, leads to increased competition and hence increased potential for water disputes and conflicts. A key challenge is to achieve a rational water allocation system that meets the country's economic, social and environmental goals.

The Kenyan new 2002 Water Act provides for state-controlled water rights, and advocates for a rational, economic and sustainable water allocation. There are clear policies and strategies regarding water allocation, but the Act is silent on how the country intends to promote the existing inequities, un-sustainability in water resources and protect the environment. This study is an attempt to develop a water allocation model that can help water managers interpret the principles of water allocation laid out in the 2002 Water Act and translate them into water allocation decisions.

The Mara river basin, located in South Western Kenya, is a fast growing ecosystem attracting lots of immigrants due to good fertile soils on the highlands of Mau forest. The population in the area is growing at a rate of 7% per annum (Mati, 2005), and hence the natural resources in the basin are in jeopardy. With increased population and development activities, competition of water resources is inevitable and this could lead to water conflicts among water users and also trans-boundary conflicts. There is need for controlled water resources exploitation and an approach that meets the water needs of the growing sectors while, at the same time, ensuring environmental sustainability.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 2 1.2 Problem statement Water allocation in the midst of declining water resources and increased competing uses poses a major task to water managers. The Water Act 2002, section 8 (1), outlines the first function of the water resources management authority as: to develop principles, guidelines and procedures for the allocation of water resources. However, it does not indicate how the available water resources should be allocated to meet the overall country’s socio-economic goals and environmental goals.

There is no water allocation method or decision support tool aid to balance the water needs of the users in an efficient, equitable and sustainable manner. This study developed a water allocation framework for Mara river that will help in planning and development of water resources in the face of declining fresh water resources and increasing water demands. The study will also assess the implications of reserving water for the environment.

1.3 Justification In the late 1990’s, Kenya adopted the integrated water resources management principles that led to the formulation of the Water Act 2002 to guide its water sector reforms. The Act recognizes the finite nature of water resources and the need to allocate them in a sustainable way. The recognition of the environment as a legitimate water user aggravates the problem of water allocation. This therefore, means that all allocation procedures must incorporate environmental water needs into consideration.

There is increasing pressure on water resources due to increased competing demands, finite nature of water availability and increasing water quality deterioration. Increased water demands will soon deplete the available freshwater resource at the expense of future generations. In such a case, there is need for a better management approach and controlled upstream development otherwise the available water resources will not meet the present and future water needs. There is need for an equitable and efficient allocation water system that will meet the demands of all the users and also plan ahead for the available water resources.

The Mara-Serengeti game reserve at the lower side of the river basin depends on Mara river which is the only reliable source of water throughout the year. The reserve support diverse plant and animal species. The Mara-Ecosystem contributes about 70% of GNP to the Kenya economy and about 75% to the Tanzanian economy (MRBMI, 2005).Users along the river

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 3 have noted the increasing amplitude in the seasonal variations in river flows. Storm flows are increasing while dry season flows are decreasing (MRBMI, 2005).Uncontrolled large scale water abstraction for commercial agriculture, industry or river diversions may affect the flow of the river downstream and could compromise the survival of the Masai Mara National Reserve and Serengeti National Park. Mati, (2005) noted that the water levels on the downstream has been declining over the years. This will lead to loss of biodiversity and foreign exchange earned from the game reserve every year both in Kenya and Tanzania.

Mara river basin is a trans-boundary water resource shared by Kenya and Tanzania. Kenya contributes over 45% of surface water inflows into Lake Victoria, hence the upper Nile (NWRMS, 2004). The Mara ecosystem once a serene environment is undergoing tremendous land use and land cover changes for example expansion agricultural lands, deforestation of Mau forest. Water allocation procedures should consider environmental water allocation if the society is to continue reaping benefits from the river for the present and future generations. Maintenance of environmental flows will also benefit all the countries concerned otherwise this could lead to trans-boundary water conflicts among the riparian countries.

1.4 Objectives of the study The main objective of the study is to develop a water allocation framework to aid decision making in water allocation in a sustainable way in the context of declining freshwater resources and increasing competing water demands.

1.4.2 Specific objectives • To establish the availability, uses and sources of water in the basin. • To quantify the water demands in the basin. • To model the implications of increased water demands on other users in the basin. • To assess the implications of reserving water for the environment. • To make recommendations.

1.4.3 Research Questions • What are the major uses, users and sources of water in Mara river basin? • How much water is available in the system?

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 4 • What are the implications of reserving water for the environment on other water users? • Is there scope for increasing water use in the upstream catchment without affecting downstream water requirements?

1.4.4 Outline of the thesis This section briefly gives an overview of the contents of the study.

Chapter 1: Introduces the background information behind the study, the problem addressed, the objectives and justification against which the study was undertaken.

Chapter 2: Gives relevant literature reviewed during the course of this study.

A detailed description of the study area, its location and human activities in Mara river basin is well documented in Chapter 3.

Chapter 4: Outlines the research methods and data used, estimation of water demands and overview of how the WAFLEX model was developed.

Results and discussion are presented in chapter 5

Conclusion and recommendations of the study marks the end of study in Chapter 6.

1.4.5 Scope of the study The study limits itself to allocation of surface water resources river Mara. There is no attempt made to discuss groundwater. The basin is shared between Kenya and Tanzania but this study is limited to the Kenyan side of the basin only due to time limitations and lack of funds.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

In this chapter, existing literature on water allocation systems; the Kenyan new Water Act; national water policy and strategies. So far, there is limited research done in East Africa to develop a water allocation methodology which interprets the water allocation principles laid out in water legislation.

2.1 Water allocation principles With increased population growth rates, increased economic development, and dwindling fresh water supplies (both in terms of quantity and quality), competition over scarce water resources is increasing at the same rate. The recognition of the environment as a legitimate user poses a greater challenges. The objective of a water allocation system is to manage the water resources so that widely held public aspirations can be achieved. Water allocation procedures should promote economic efficiency, equity and environmental integrity.

Economic efficiency is concerned with the amount of wealth, that can be generated by a given resource base. Water utilization should be of beneficial use. Equity is linked to the fact that water is a basic need and deals with the distribution of the resource among the sectors and individuals of society. Every individual should therefore be granted equal opportunity of access to water.

Environmental integrity aims to maintain the environment which is the resource base. Water resources can only be available in a natural environment capable of generating fresh water of acceptable quality. With sustainable resource use, our future generations will be able to use this resource just like the present generations. Water allocation should promote the water needs of the environment in order to maintain the ecosystems upon which all aspects of life and development depends on.

2.1.1 Integrated water resources management (IWRM) IWRM is a new water management and development concept which seeks to move people away from their traditional way of operation to a new way of operation which takes into account the scarcity of water resources, sustainable water use and the needs of other stakeholders (IWRM, lecture notes). The World Summit on Sustainable development

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 6 (WSSD) confirmed the concept of IWRM as the sustainable way of managing water. The IWRM principles are found in the Dublin principles (ICWE, 1992) as follows:

• Water is a finite, vulnerable and essential resource which should be managed in an integrated manner. • Water resources development and management should be based on participatory approach, involving all stakeholders. • Women play a central role in the provision, management and safeguarding of water. • Water has an economic value and should be recognized as an economic good, taking into account affordability and equity criteria.

2.2 The 2002 Water Act The recent water sector reforms of Kenya are enshrined in this Act. This Act was formulated with the main objective of improving equity of access, ensuring sustainability and enhancing water efficiency. It is also meant to protect the environment. All activities linked to the use of water and development of water must not jeopardize the environmental integrity. Under this Act, all water resources are vested in the State.

A major feature of this Act is the separation of the water resources management and water service delivery. The Act establishes a Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA), an autonomous body to oversee water resources development and management. The water authority is a corporate body, capable of suing and being sued. The authority is allowed to levy rates and charge fees for the services rendered. The Act gives WRMA the mandate to allocate water through permit system. The act sets out administrative procedures for applying for a permit, and who should apply. The water authority is also mandated to control pollution in rivers.

The right to the use of water from any water resource is vested in the minister. Any water use from a water resource, the discharge of a pollutant into any public water course requires a permit from the WRMA (New Water Act 2002). One does not require a permit for abstraction of domestic water if there is no pumping device is installed.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 7 The use of water for domestic purposes shall take precedence over the use of water for any other purpose. The permit requires the beneficial use of the water, will have a limited period of validity, specified in it. For one to get a permit for abstraction, one must have a storage facility to abstract the flood flow since one is not allowed to abstract normal flow.

For one to get a permit, an application is made to the water authority, is subject to public consultation, and where applicable of environmental impact assessment in accordance to the requirements of the environmental management. Permits may not be sold, leased or transferred. Since all water is vested in the State, the powers of exclusion, (right to determine who has access) and alienation (right to sell or lease water) remain ultimately vested in the State and thus clearly there are no private property rights to water in Kenya.

2.3 Water policy- Sessional Paper Number 1 of 1999 The Sessional Paper Number 1 of 1999 on National Water Policy on National Water Resources Management and Development states that one of the ways to help overcome the water challenges in Kenya is through sustainable, rational and economical allocation of water resources.

2.4 National Water Resources Management Strategy (NWRMS) The main goal of the strategy is to meet the water related Millenium Development Goals (MDG’s) by 2015 (NWRMS, 2004). The MDGs are as follows: Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Development Global partnership for development (UNDP, 2003).

In this study, the emphasis is on Goal 7 which aims to ensure environmental sustainability. Sustainable development is making efficient use of natural resources for economic development and social development while maintaining the resource base and environmental carrying capacity for future generations. The future of water resources may be put into risk by overexploitation and pollution of resources. One way towards this end is to control overuse of natural resources in our pursuit for economic development. This should take into account

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 8 water for environment to ensure downstream flow beyond borders. This can be achieved by proper water allocation and conservation methods.

According to NWRMS (2004), the activities for environmentally sustainable water resources management shall maintain minimal (reserve) flow levels into lakes and rivers at all times in order to protect bio-diversity, sensitive environments and species with important social- economic functions such as wetlands, watersheds, deltas, and riverine environments. The strategy, shall among other activities, determine abstraction limits and establish minimal flows required in each watershed to protect biodiversity and sensitive environments as well as allocate required flows to the environment giving it first priority in water allocation.

The water resources management strategy seems to conflict with the Water Act (2002) regarding priority of water use in water allocation. According to the Water Act, domestic water use shall take precedence of all other water uses but the strategy states that water for environment should be given the first priority.

2.5 Water allocation systems There are various water allocation systems of water rights found in different parts of the world. These water allocation systems include riparian rights system, prior appropriation, public allocation, proportional water rights, and tradable rights. The riparian doctrine states that every proprietor of lands on the banks of a river has naturally an equal right to the use of water which flows in the stream that flows adjacent to it. Under prior appropriation, the rights belong to those settlers who first put the water to actual, beneficial use independent of ownership of riparian land. The system is simple, water rights are acquired on first come, first served basis. In public water allocation water resources are owned by the government and one needs to apply for a water permit to use the water. Under tradable rights system, water rights are acquired through market and are allowed to be tradable. The system of proportional rights can be defined as a system where a user has a proportional share or percentage of the water available and this is independent of the amount of water available (Vos, 1997; Coward, 1986; Lang, 1997).

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 9 2.6 Water allocation in Zimbabwe and South Africa Zimbabwe, like many other Southern African countries has recently restructured the water sector and has enacted a new Water Act of 1998. With the new Water Act, all existing water rights were converted to water permits. The prior date system upon which those rights were based was abolished. According to the Act, water is to be managed on a catchment basis. The management of all national water resources is under a parastatal, Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA). At the catchment level, water management is on the hands of Catchment Councils which form the second tie. The third tier is the sub-catchment councils (SCCs) who monitor the exercise of permit issuance, water flows and uses, assist in pollution control, catchment protection and collecting water levies .The Councils issue water permits.

The Catchment Councils issue permits which are valid for limited period of time usually twenty years with the main objective of achieving equitable allocation of available water resources. They assess the needs of each applicant and the likely economic and social benefits of the proposed use. They have powers to revise re-allocate or re-apportion the permits in order to ensure the equitable distribution and use of available water resources. The new water Act does not precisely prescribe the new water allocation system that should replace the prior date system.

In South Africa, Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWARF) is the national level institution and is the custodian of the nation’s water resources. The country is divided into 19 Water Management Areas (WMAs) governed by Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs). They have the responsibility of protection, development and conservation of water resources. They are also charged with issuing the water permits. The Water Users Association (WUAs) forms the third tier of water management and are basically individual water users who wish to undertake water-related activities for their mutual benefit.

2.7 Water resources modeling A model refers to simplified representation of a complex system (Clarke, 1972). A model is a package that facilitates the simulation of a system out of a conceptual framework of the system. By manipulating a set of variable parameters, it becomes possible to predict the performance of the system under a set of operating rules (Makurira and Mul, 2004). Models are developed to and used in order to facilitate decision making.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 10 Models perform several functions; they generate information, predict impacts, identify data needs and assumption; increase system understanding and hence enhance judgment. Models also identify and evaluate alternatives and help to predict and better understand trade-off among goals, objectives and interests (Makurira and Mul, 2004). Models can be applied to vast problems in water resources like simulation of natural discharge, operational forecasting, and prediction of effects of future physical changes in a catchment. Different models are used for different purposes depending on the purpose of the model and data availability Examples of models used in water allocation includes WAFLEX and WEAP (Water Evaluation, Analysis and Planning) models.

2.7.1 Spread sheet modeling Spreadsheets can be used to develop a simple model which can be used to aid decision making processes. This is done by linking cells through mathematical functions. Cells where important functions are taking place like abstractions are called nodes. Spreadsheet models can be developed to become complex models. As the models become more complex, advanced spread sheet applications become necessary such as the use of macros. Macros allow for speedier execution of commands hence shorten the programming process (Griphin, 2002).

2.7.1.1 The WAFLEX model This is a spreadsheet based model which performs a water balance at given time steps. Its network functions are based on the equation of continuity and the fact that water flows from upstream to downstream (Natsha, 1999). The model is river basin simulation model that simulates the response of the river basin on management strategies and can therefore be used for decision support. Successive and systematic runs of the model evaluate the responses to the variations in inputs or operating conditions (Makurira and Mul, 2004). When used in conjunction with engineering and economic criteria, the results of these allow:

• The evaluation of the effect of the upstream development on the flows at the outfall and the consequent downstream development. • The systematic comparison of alternative configurations of water resources in the basin.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 11 The model calculates water balances with monthly time series for each cell and can be used for strategic decisions (Natsha, 1999). For each time step and given input such as inflows and water demands, the WAFLEX model, calculates satisfaction levels for each demand and hence the water shortages for given management options. The results are stocked in the database (Natsha, 1999).

Water allocation for the various users is done from upstream to downstream. If the abstraction demands more the water available, the downstream flow will be negative. To overcome this, the downstream will take the sum of the upstream cells (demands being given negative) or zero, the equation is the abstraction node should read; =MAX (sum of upstream cells, 0). The outputs of the model include time series for abstraction, shortages and reservoir volumes if reservoirs exist on the river. The model consists of a supply, demand, reservoirs, outputs, macros and user interface components.

Reservoirs, if they exist, can also be incorporated in the network. It consists of three cells: an inflow cell, storage cell and a release cell. The release cell acts as an inflow point to the downstream branch. The storage and release of the reservoir in determined in a subroutine macro and takes into account the flood rule curve (FRC), the utility rule curve (URC) and the dead storage curve (DSC. The interface sheet contains command controls which can be adjusted to suit ones’ needs.

The outputs of the model include time series for abstraction, shortages and reservoir volumes if reservoirs exist on the river. Future changes in water resources management (e.g. new changing reservoir operations, allocation) can be estimated on their impact on the total performance of the system and the individual water users (Griphin, 2002). The model can also be used to investigate the impact if improving water demand management in the towns or irrigation schemes (other crops, less irrigation) or change the priority of allocation.

2.7.1.2 Choice of the model WAFLEX model was chosen for this study since it can easily be configured to represent any river system This model will give a starting point and can be developed further to become a complex model. WAFLEX model also require less data inputs which could be gathered within time limits given for this study.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 12 2.7.1.3 Application of WAFLEX model WAFLEX model has previously been applied in various studies. Some of them include, Table 2.1: Application of Waflex model Author Application From Priority date to fractional allocation: Towards Natsha F. Thomas (1999) equitable distribution of water resources in Zimbabwe Dam operation for Environmental flow releases: The case Griphin Symphorian (2002) of Osborne dam, Save Catchment, Zimbabwe.

Water Resources Modeling in the Komati Catchment shared Sakhiwe M. Nkomo (2003) by South Africa and Swaziland Impact of water supply to City of Harare from parallel Hodson Makurira (1997) river systems and implications to other uses in the river systems Alexander Mhizha (2001) Reservoir operation for a system of major dams in Manyame catchment: the applicability of the 21 month rule Incorporating of in stream flow requirements into the Trevor T. Shongwe (2003) allocation of the water resources in the Ngavuma River in Swaziland

2.7.1.4 Strengths and weaknesses of the WAFLEX model Some of the advantages of the model include, • The model is transparent, • Easy to follow, • Can be modified with relative ease. • The model is also easily set up and therefore, • Very efficient as first indicator in decision-making process.

However, the model can easily be abused since it easy to modify and manipulate to suit ones’ needs, usually over simplify issues and usually can not be used for conclusive decision making. It also oversimplifies the situation for example; water losses like evaporation, seepage are not accounted for.

The model can be used for decision support tool particularly for strategic decisions. It can be used to give initial guidance to planning and development of water resources in a basin. The model gives quick or rapid assessment conditions of implications of measures for river basin management and development.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 13 2.8 Environmental flows allocation Environmental flows refer to the water required to maintain healthy aquatic ecosystems and cater for downstream users’ water needs. The term is used interchangeably in this study with ecological reserve, environmental water needs and environmental water requirements.

There have been no comprehensive studies done in Sub-Saharan countries to determine environmental flows. However, studies have been carried out in South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania. The studies show that there is no agreed value for environmental flow. The value depend’s on the river’s characteristics. In Ngwavuma river in Swaziland, a study carried out by Frenken and Bousquet (1997) recommended a figure of 20% of the flows of the river.

The Tripartite Interim Agreement (TIA) (2002), between Mozambique, Swaziland and South Africa recommends 50 Mm3/a, as the mean target across the border flows between Mozambique, Swaziland and South Africa for Ngwavuma river. The TIA also recommends a minimum target flow of 0.1m3/s to be left to flow across the border. This flow is equivalent to 18% of the normal flow during the driest months (Tripartite Interim Agreement, 2002).

According to research done in Great Ruaha Catchment in Tanzania, a flow of 0.5-1 m3/s is recommended for Great Ruaha river through the Ruaha National Park to sustain the environment in the park during the dry season (Kashaigili, 2005). In Kenya no attempt has been made and even the Water Act (2002) does not have any clause on how the country intends to protect its environment although it recognizes environmental water needs.

2.9 The need for environmental water allocation The environment requires water for life sustenance and for maintaining a healthy ecosystem. The environment is actually the resource base from which the overall socio-economic development relies on but until lately it has not been recognized in the water allocation system compared to other water user/users. Provision of water for environmental purposes is still assigned a low priority in water resources management, and the condition of freshwater ecosystems worldwide continues to deteriorate (Revenga et al. 2000; Rosenberg et al. 2000). Environmental flows will protect the rivers from drying up due to lack of water, loss of ecosystems and can also help revive floods in overused rivers.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 14 Deterioration of downstream river conditions due to reduced water levels and poor water quality leads to significant costs to a country. These are usually manifested in terms of externalities in water resources development. They include irreversible destruction of river channels, loss of biodiversity, reduced life-span of water infrastructure, reduced water quality leading to health problems and loss of resources for local communities. Allocation of water for the environment will enhance the sustainability of the river ecosystem since overexploitation of water will be controlled. It can also help avert potential conflicts among the downstream and upstream communities.

The majority of the rural poor derive their livelihoods from the Mara River in terms of fish, medicinal herbs, fuel firewood, grazing lands. The downstream communities particularly the rural poor are in will be severely affected if the rivers dry up or water is not enough to maintain ecological life. The downstream communities and other users are also likely to experience water quality problems due to reduced volumes of water for dilution of wastes. This limits their efforts of poverty alleviation, food security, natural resources protection and improvement of local people’s living standards. Leaving some water for the environment will therefore help sustain the local communities’ livelihoods.

However, provision of water for the environment in the context of water scarcity is a good idea in blue print, but its implementation is likely to be met with some resistance. The introduction of a new water user when the available water is hardly enough will often create some trade offs between development sectors, particularly between agriculture and environments. It will mean hard choices have to be made, especially in this era when food security is major concern everywhere in the world but they must be made if the present and future generations are to benefit from the river ecosystems.

3.0 Water conflicts in water resources management Conflicts or disputes over water resources are common all over the world. Conflict is a relationship between individuals or groups, whereby they perceive they have incompatible goals, scarce resources as well as interference from others in achieving the same goals. There is a direct link between conflicts and water.

First, water scarcity as a result of climate change, over-exploitation and increased water quality deterioration, is a potential source of water conflict. Water scarcity reduces access to

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 15 adequate water supplies. Poor water quality poses health hazard in terms of water borne diseases. Water pollution in rivers reduces available usable water and also imposes extra cost on downstream users due to increased costs.

Second, water is a source of livelihood to many people. Water shortages lead to loss of livelihoods leading to increased poverty levels. A third link between water and conflicts regard water governance. Water conflicts are not only caused by water shortages but also the way the resource is managed. Some of the factors that trigger conflicts in water use include unmet expectations, unequal power and authority, incompatible objectives, conflicting institutions and weak institutional capacity, lack of infrastructure.

In Mara basin, conflicts exist for example between the Masai pastoralists and other local communities who migrate during the dry season in search of grass and water. According to the Masai culture, a man’s power is measured by the head of cattle owned. The conflicts arise in the receiving areas particularly when they invade private water points like water holes earth dams to access water for their cattle. This triggers water conflicts among the local communities.

Water use conflicts can be reduced or prevented by strengthening water management institutions and adopting water allocation approaches that are transparent, equitable and rational. Involvement of all stakeholders in planning and decision making in water allocation may help since the stakeholders are given an opportunity to air their contributions. It also calls for a strong legal and regulatory framework to help monitor the water users’ adherence to laid down rules and regulations.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 16 CHAPTER 3 STUDY AREA

This chapter gives an overview ok Kenya in general and a detailed description of the Mara river basin. The section includes physical description and social-economic aspects of the basin.

3.1 Country’s Background

3.1.1 Geographical location Kenya is located on the Eastern Africa coast between latitudes 50 40’ North and 40 4’ South and between longitudes 330 50’ West and 410 45’ East. The country is bordered by Tanzania to the South, Uganda to the West, Sudan and Ethiopia to the North; and Somalia and Indian Ocean to the East. Kenya has an area of 590,00Km2 and a coastline of 608Km long. Administratively, Kenya is divided into eight provinces, Central, Coast, Eastern, Nyanza, Rift Valley, Nairobi, North Eastern and Western provinces. Kenya has diverse landforms ranging from the coastal plains through the dry Nyika Plateau to the Savannah grasslands and the highlands on both sides of the Rift Valley. Mount Kenya, The Mau ranges, Mount Elgon and the Aberdare or Nyandarua range dominates the highlands which are traversed by Rift Valley.

3.1.2 Water resources in Kenya Kenya is classified as a water scarce country with per capita water resources availability estimated as 643m3/a for the present population of 30 million. Average annual rainfall varies between 250mm between the thinly populated semi-arids in the North to 1250mm in the Central highlands, covering less than a quarter of the land area but supporting 75% of the population. Surface water represents 86% of the available water resources in the five drainage basins namely; Lake Victoria Basin, Ewaso Ngiro North, Tana river, Athi river, Rift Valley basins. The quality and quantity of water varies from basin to basin.

There are 17 major dams with a storage capacity of 4.06 Km3, 2,660 small dams and 41 sub- surface dams with an estimated capacity of 4.7*106m3. Lake storage is estimated at 0.315 Km3. The country’s ground water resources are not well developed and information on

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 17 aquifers is scanty. There are about 9000 registered boreholes abstracting approximately 57 Mm3/a, mainly for domestic and livestock supplies.

3.1.3 Institutional framework With the new water sector reforms, water management has been decentralized to the lowest water levels. Water management at the catchment level is managed by a regional water authority board. Each catchment has a Catchment Area Advisory Committee (CAAC’s) who advise the water authority. Figure 3.1 shows the institutional framework for water resources management in Kenya.

Figure 3.1: Institutional framework for water resources management in Kenya

3.1.4 Transboundary waters Kenya has a lot of water bodies shared with her neighboring countries. Over 65% of the surface water flow is shared by neighbouring countries mainly Tanzania, Uganda, Somalia and Ethiopia.. Mara river basin is a transboundary resource shared with Tanzania, drains into Lake Victoria and hence Mara contributes the headwaters of River Nile. Trans-boundary

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 18 waters are a potential source of conflict since each country has its own development interests. Although, so far no transboundary conflicts have been reported in Mara river basin, there is need for collaboration and cooperation between the two countries in water resources management to ensure that benefits from the river are shared equally while ensuring environmental sustainability.

3.2 Physiographic description of Mara

3.2.1 Geographical location The Mara River is an international river, shared between Kenya and Tanzania and is about 395km long. The basin is located in the Equatorial East Africa, between 35.780E and 0.430S on Southwest Kenya and 33.780E and 1.480S in Northeast Tanzania. The transboundary basin covers an area of about 13,750 km2, of which about 65% is located in Kenya and 35% in Tanzania. The basin crosses Nakuru, Narok, Bomet and Transmara districts in Kenya and Tarime, Musoma and Serengeti administrative districts. See figure 3.2 and 3.3 below.

Figure 3.2: The location and administrative districts in Mara river basin

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 19 The basin originates from the Napuiyapui swamp, in South West Mau Escarpment in the highlands of Kenya. The altitude ranges from 2932m at its source to 1134m at Lake Victoria. The basin is bounded by the Soit Olooloo Escarpment on the West and the Loita and Sannia plains to the East.

Figure 3.3: The Mara river basin with gauging stations along Mara river

3.2.2 Climate The climate varies greatly with the change in altitude. The basin is characterized by the dominant tropical dry/wet dry climate (Mati et al., 2005). The rainfall is highest on the highlands with a mean annual value of 1400 mm/yr and lowest in the lower Loita hills and around Musoma with a mean annual value of 600 mm/year. The rainfall seasons are bi- modal, with the long rains occurring in March-April-May and the short rains in October- November. The basin has a mean annual temperature of 250C. The lower portion is a dry plain with high evaporation (Valimba et al., 2005.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 20

3.2.3 Soils The soils in the basin are diverse in both texture and structure. The basin is dominated by two types of soils, cambisols and vertisols. Cambisols are found mainly in the middle and upper part of the basin while vertisols are common in the lower part (Mati et al, 2005). The mountains have rich volcanic soils which include shallow but well drained dark-brown suitable for agricultural production.

The plateaus and high level plains of Siria, Niarage Enkare and Naroosura have gray-brown to dark dark-brown soils. In areas like Shartuka, Kapkimolwa plains, and Masai Mara National reserve deep dark-greyish soils are found.

3.2.4 Drainage There are various streams in the basin that drain into Mara river. Most of the streams in the basin are seasonal with most of them drying up in the dry season. The main perennial tributaries are Nyangores and Amala both originating from the Western side of Mau forests. Other tributaries includes Talek river which originates from Loita plains and joins the Mara at Masai Mara game reserve, Engare Engito originating from the Ilotyookoit Ap Soyet ridges and the Sand River, which is the last main tributary. The river then flows through Mosirori Swamp, then through Mara bay into Lake Victoria at Musoma in Tanzania. See figure 3.3.

3.2.5 Forestry The forest highlands are high potential area with ideal climatic conditions and fertile soils. The main forest, Mau Forest, is found on the upper catchment areas. The forest plays a major role as a water catchment. The middle part of the basin is dominated by savanna vegetation while dense tropical rainforests are found in the Mau escarpment (Mati et al., 2005). However, over the four few decades, the forest area has been reduced by about 50% (KFWG 2003). Forests have been cleared to pave way for agriculture, charcoal burning, settlement schemes resulting into massive land degradation. The modifications of the natural vegetation usually lead to modifications in run off generation and consequently flow regimes.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 21 3.2.6 Land use / land cover changes The land use /land cover in Mara transboundary basin is changing rapidly. This is as a result of increased population growth, due to high rates of immigration (Mati, 2005). The basin is endowed with good fertile soils suitable for agricultural production particularly in the upper and middle sub-catchments. This is promoting large and small scale agriculture with more lands opening up for farming. The on-going deforestation of Mau forests which is the source of Mara river is just one case in point.

Destruction of closed forest has seen land under tea increase by 82%. Forests and savannah lands have been cleared and lands converted to agriculture. For instance, the are under cultivation in Amala sub-catchment increased from less than 20% in 1990 to more than 50% in 1991 (Mati, 2005). Privatization of communal pastoral lands is attracting immigrants which may lead to overgrazing. These land use/land cover changes have caused sharp rises in flood peaks, attenuation of hydrographs and reduction in base flows (Mati, 2005). Table 3.1 below shows land use /land cover (LU/LC) changes over a period of fourteen years.

Table 3.1: Land use/land cover changes in Mara River Basin

Land cover 1973 1986 2000 % type (Area) km2 (Area) (Area) km2 Change in Change in km2 LU/LC LU/LC

Forests 1008 893 689 -39 -32 Tea/Open 621 1073 1948 +1327 +214 forests Agricultural 826 1617 2504 +1678 +203 land Shrubland 5361 5105 3546 -1815 -34 Grassland 2465 1621 1345 -1120 -45 Savanna 3163 2867 2354 -809 -26 Wetlands 286 604 1394 +1108 +387 Water bodies 104 54 55 -49 -47

Source: Mutie S.M. (2005)

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 22 3.3 Socio-economic activities

3.3.1 Agriculture The main economic activity in the basin is agriculture, with both commercial and subsistence farmers. About 62% of the households are small holder farmers (Abound et al, 2002). The main crops grown are maize, wheat, cassava, beans, potatoes, cotton. Large tea, coffee, wheat and barley plantations have been opened in Kericho and Narok districts and there are further plans to open up more land for wheat plantations (Mati, et al., 2005).

In view of increasing population pressure; land use is inevitably leading to agricultural expansion (Abound, 2002). This will obviously exert more pressure on water resources through pollution from farm runoff, soil erosion and increased water abstraction.

3.3.2 Livestock rearing Livestock rearing is the second major economic activity in the Mara basin. During the dry season, the river provides the only reliable source of water for livestock (Abound, et al, 2002).The midlands comprise highland plateaus and form the grazing lands for the pastoralist community. The vegetation is grassland savanna with scattered tree shrubs dominated by red oat grass (Themeda Triadra), wire grass (pennisetum schimperi), croton dichogamus shrubs, acacia and spiny camiphora tree species (FOC, 2000).

3.3.3 Tourism and wildlife Tourism and wildlife are also major activities in the river basin. At the centre of the basin lies the world’s most famous Masai Mara game reserve on the Kenyan side and Mara-Serengeti National Park on the Tanzanian side. The Mara-Serengeti is a world heritage site, of global conservation significance and of great economic importance to the local communities in the two countries.

The Mara ecosystem is a world famous wildlife sanctuary and contains the most diverse combination of grazing animals in the world holding 400,000 wildlife and livestock (Mati, 2005). This wildlife habitat is also famous because of the annual wild beest migration. The ecosystem supports local people’s livelihoods like the pastoralists, farmers, hunters and gatherers and is an important source of foreign exchange for both countries. However, the ecosystem is threatened by increasing population pressure on resources in the catchment.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 23 3.4 Population Mara river basin is made up diverse tribes. The major tribes are Masai, Kipgisis, Kalenjin and other immigrants like Kikuyu, Kisii, Luo and Luhya tribes. The Masai mainly occupy Narok, Transmara districts, while Kipsigis and Kalenjins are found in Bomet district. The immigrants are found in all the districts (See Appendix 1 for population numbers).

3.5 Water resources development The main water sources in Mara basin for domestic, agricultural and other uses are rivers, boreholes, springs, water pans and shallow wells. The water is mainly for domestic use, livestock, irrigation, tourism and wildlife. Other households and commercial enterprises in Bomet and other growing centres like Longisa, Mulot, Kapkimolwa fetch water directly from the river, utilizing both human and animal draught power. The most important source of water for households in Mara during the wet season is unprotected springs. The trend changes during the dry season when the major source is the river and second unprotected springs (NRC, 2004). This is because most households lack storage facilities and again most of the other water sources dry up forcing households to resort to rivers. The river is the only reliable source of water particularly during the dry season.

Some households get their water from protected springs, open wells while others harvest rain water from their roofs. Earth dams, water pans and boreholes are also important sources of water in the basin. The dams and pans are important source of water particularly to pastoralists for their livestock. This water is also used for domestic purposes in some areas especially by the Masai community. The water is usually contaminated since it is mostly used by livestock, wildlife and is also exposed to environmental effluents.

The majority of the population does not have access to piped water. Piped water is only found in parts of Bomet district. The average distance between the consumers and water sources is about 5 kilometres. It takes about 2 hours to reach reliable water supply especially during the dry season. The average walking distance for livestock to water points is about 10km (Water Master plan, 1992).

3.6 Water quality The water quality in the Mara river has been deteriorating over the years. This is largely due to increased sediment load as a result of deforestation and unsustainable agricultural

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 24 practices, increased feacal coli-forms from urban centres and tourist hotels, and possible heavy metal seepage (particularly mercury) from small scale mining (MRBMI, 2005).

Data on persistent organic pollutants (POPS) have not yet been analysed. Nitrate levels in the river will inevitably rise given the increased cultivation of wheat and this may lead to Eutrophication downstream and in L.Victoria (MRBMI, 2005).

3.7 Water resources management in Mara Mara River falls under Lake Victoria South Water Resources Management Authority. The regional office is at Kisumu while the sub-regional office is at TransMara District. At the local level is the Mara River Basin Water User’s Association (MRBWUA’s), an organization composed of major water users in the Mara. An interview with a member of MRBWUA revealed that it has not been easy to involve all water users along the river particularly the hotels in Mara. The WUA’s are mandated to protect and conserve the catchment to ensure sustainable, efficient water resource use. They are also mandated to approve new water permit application; monitor water quality and abstractions; and resolve conflicts between the water users.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 25 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH METHODS AND MATERIALS

This chapter gives an overview of the procedures and methods used to estimate the water demands, the data used and its quality and other types of information relevant for the study.

4.1 Data collection and sources Both secondary and primary data were used for the study. The data used for the study included mean monthly rainfall and stream flows, and water permits. Hydrological data and water permits were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation while rainfall data was acquired from the Kenya Meteorological Department. Daily rainfall data was available for the stations shown in table 4.1. Mean monthly rainfall for a period 1970-1992 was calculated for all the above stations to highlight the rainfall variation over the years. Water permits were used to estimate some water demands. The mean annual runoff was calculated to assess water availability in the basin. Mean monthly stream flows and water demands were used as inputs into the WAFLEX model.

Table 4.1: Rainfall stations in Mara river basin

Station Name of Station Country Long. Lat. Record I/D length 9035079 Sotik, Tenwek Mission Hosp. Kenya 35.33 -0.75 1970-1992

9035260 Kericho, Koiwa estate Kenya 35.35 -0.81 1970-1992

9035265 Bomet town Kenya 35.35 -0.78 1970-1992

9035241 Elburgon, Baragot Forest Kenya 35.73 -0.41 1970-1992 35.21 9135013 Keekorok Game lodge, Narok Kenya -1.61 1970-1992 Population data was obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics, Bomet Office. To get the population in Mara river basin, the population data was overlaid with the catchment boundary in Arcview (GIS software). Population distribution in Mara is as shown in appendix 1.

Livestock population data was acquired from Narok, Bomet district offices while institutional data like schools and hospitals in Narok and Bomet districts was obtained from District

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 26 Education offices and Ministry of Health in the districts respectively. There are no schools and hospitals in Trans-mara district getting water from Mara river.

Interviews with various stakeholders like government officers, water supply managers, hotel managers, commercial farmers and small-scale farmers, households were also carried out to gather information on water management in the basin. Related literature from government offices, research institutions and individual articles was also reviewed.

4.1.1 Limitations and gaps in data Most of the hydro-meteorological data acquired had gaps and was inconsistent. This made the researcher discard a lot of rainfall and stream flow data and remained with only 21 years from 1970-1991. Missing data for stream flows and rainfall were filled using multiple regression equation below, across the stations with data for the same period as missing period.

Y = + + …………………………………………….Eq. 4.1 C C1 X 1 C 2 X 2

Where, Y is a set of values of the base station (dependent variable)

Xi is a series of values of the neighboring station C is the equation constant

C1 Equation’s coefficients.

The water permits as well had a lot of inconsistencies. Most of the permits were outdated, since the records were not updated by the time this research was carried out Water demands for such permits were collected by interviewing the abstractors.

4.2 Estimation of water demands Water demand can be defined as the amount of water required to meet the needs for various purposes like domestic, agricultural, industrial and commercial. The main uses of water in Mara river basin are for domestic use, small and large scale irrigation, livestock production and power generation. Water demands for domestic, irrigation, livestock and institutions in Mara basin were estimated. The following section briefly describes the approach used to estimate the water demands.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 27 4.2.1 Domestic water demand Water for domestic purposes includes water for drinking, cleaning the house, laundry. This water demand was estimated for water supply facilities usually located along the Nyangores tributary and for a few individuals abstracting for domestic uses along the river system. These water supplies include Kapcheluch, Mugombet, Tenwek, Bomet, Sigor and Chepalungu. The domestic water demand was estimated from permitted abstractions both for water supplies and individuals as per water permits. Domestic water demand was estimated at 394x 103m3/yr. (See appendix 2).

Interviews with most water supply representatives revealed that there were no good records indicating the amount water supplied per day. The population with piped water in the houses or stand pipes was also not clear in most of these water supplies since some people had been disconnected but the records had not been updated. There were also no records on households with water meters and it emerged out that a good number did not have water meters. It was therefore, not possible to estimate domestic water use based on population data.

In this study, it was assumed that the population with no piped water gets water from the river or other sources. Those fetching water directly from the river using water containers and buckets were assumed to have insignificant influence on river flows and hence this demand was not included in this research.

4.2.2 Institutional water demand The term institution was used in this research to mean schools, hospitals and hotels. Institutional water demand was estimated for institutions depending on the Mara river and its tributaries to meet their water needs. It was not possible to visit all the schools and hospitals due to time limits and wet weather conditions rendering some roads impassible. Water demands were therefore, estimated using records from relevant ministries.

Water demands in schools and hospitals were estimated using students population and number of beds in hospitals respectively. The following section briefly describes how water demand for institutions in both Narok and Bomet district were estimated. More details can be found in appendix 4. There are no hospitals or schools in Trans-mara District abstracting on Mara river.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 28 (a) Hospitals There are about 53 health facilities in Bomet district: 4 hospitals, 8 health centres, 28 dispensaries, 13 clinics. Only 10 out of the total have admitting facilities. Narok district has about 9 health facilities, 3 health centres, 5 dispensaries, 1 clinic and only have admitting facilities as shown in appendix 4

Water use in the hospitals is a function of the number of beds, per-capita use. The per capita use adopted is 350 l/d/per bed (Wallingford, 2001). For all the districts water demand for hospitals can be estimated as;

Total number of beds * per capita use. []b × p ………………………………………………Eq.4.2 where, n is the number of beds and p is the per capita use. The total water demand for Narok and Bomet district was estimated at 77,420 m3/ year.

(b) Schools There are about 25 secondary schools in Narok with a total population is 5428. In Bomet district, there are 93 secondary schools in the district with a total population of 13608 students. Water use in schools is a function of the total student’s population and per capita use. Water demand in secondary schools is estimated as, Total students population* per capita use =p × pc ……………………………………………………..…Eq.4.3 where p is the total school population and pc is the per capita use.

It was not possible to reach all the schools and hence water demands were estimated from ministry of education list of schools. The per capita use for students was assumed at 45 l/d. The figures were arrived from interviews with water officers in the area and some students. The total amount of water was estimated to be 31.3 x 103m3/yr. (c) Hotels Water demand for hotels in Mara includes water demand in the tourist hotels/lodges/camps along Mara river and also other small hotel businesses. In areas like Bomet, Mulot, Longisa,

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 29 where there is no piped water, interviews were carried out to estimate the water demand for the small hotel businesses. These hotels get significant quantities of water directly from the river using animal power. Water demand in tourist hotels can be estimated using the number of beds and the per capita use (Wallingford, 2001).

The water demand was varied according to high and low seasons since the tourists are more in high season (June-January) and low season (February-May).The total hotels water demand was estimated at 2.76 x 103m3 per month during the high season. From interviews with most hotel managers, the researcher assumed that only a quarter of the full bed capacity is occupied during the low season and hence a quarter of water demand is used during that period (See appendix 3).

4.2.3 Agricultural water demand Irrigation water demand is seasonal and weather dependent, the size of irrigation scheme and the types of crops are important in determining water consumption rates for crops. Direct interviews with large and small scale farmers were carried out to verify the records in the water permits. It was found that some farmers were abstracting more than permitted and some were operating with no permits.

Since it was not possible to reach all the farmers irrigating from the river, water demands was estimated from water permits. Water for agriculture was estimated at 6.57Mm3/yr (See appendix 2). The water permits did not have consistent data like types of crops grown and area under irrigation and therefore the researcher used abstractions in the water permits.

4.2.4 Livestock water demand Livestock keeping is a major economic activity in Mara basin, both large scale and small scale livestock keeping is practiced. Livestock water demand is a function of type of animal, population and per capita use (Wallingford, 2001). The number and type of animals in the three districts is shown in the table 4.2

In this study, water demand was estimated only for cattle, sheep and goats. This is because these livestock drink from the river in large numbers. The per capita water use for cattle, goats, and sheep is estimated at 45, 10, and 10 litres respectively (Wallingford, 2001). Livestock water demand was estimated using the following equations in all the three districts

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 30 • Water demand for cattle was estimated as, No. of cattle* per capita use = nc * pc …………………………………………………..Eq. 4.4 where, nc is the number of cattle and pc is water per capita. • Water demand for goats was estimated as follows, No. of goats* per capita use = ng * pc …………………………………………………...Eq. 4.5 where, ng is the number of goats and pc is water per capita. Water demand for sheep was estimated as No. of sheep* per capita use = ns * pc ……………………………………….…………...Eq. 4.6 where, ns is the number of sheep and pc is water per capita. Total livestock water demand in the basin was estimated as 12.9Mm3/yr as shown in table 4.2 below.

Table 4.2: Livestock types and population in Bomet, Narok and Trans-mara districts

WATER Type of livestock Population DEMAND (103 m3/Year)

Narok Bomet Transmara

Cattle 291,470 179,380 142,052 10,067 (Beef+Dairy) Goats 315,205 51,545 32,549 1,457 Sheep 262,795 58,040 55,122 1,372 TOTAL 12896

4.2.5 Water for wild life The Mara-Serengeti ecosystem is a home to a diverse number of wildlife. The wild animals in Mara are also a major water consumer. Water for wildlife is a function of type of animals, total population and per capita use. Water for wildlife consumption was not possible to

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 31 estimate due to lack of reliable wildlife numbers i.e. number of animals drinking from Mara river. Wild animals are migratory, are not limited to the park and most of them are found outside the park hence rely on other water sources mostly springs. This water was therefore not considered in the modeling process.

4.2.6 Environmental water use The environment is now recognized as a legitimate water user (New water Act 2002), although the Act does not indicate how much should be set aside for ecological reserve. Due to lack of precise data and guidelines, the study assumed an arbitrary value for environmental water use as 5% of the mean annual runoff (MAR) and will be a constant value throughout the year. This figure seems appropriate to help sustain the river throughout the year particularly in this system where there are no reservoirs which can provide environmental releases during the dry season. This will be reserved from the MAR’s of the three main branches of the river i.e. Nyangores, Amala and Mara.

4.3 Projected water demands Future projection of water supply and demand is important for planning, development and management of water resources. This study estimated the future water demands for domestic, agriculture and institutional sectors in Mara river basin. The Kenyan food policy puts a lot of emphasis on food security for the nation. This calls for more agricultural land being opened up for cultivation through irrigation. This is likely to increase water demands for the sector. With this background, this study attempted to assess the implications of increased future water demand for irrigation.

The researcher assumed that the sectors will grow at the same rate as national population growth rate of 3.5% per annum. For modeling purposes, the demands were distributed among the tributaries for example; water demand for domestic purposes is likely to increase more in Bomet district than in Narok since the town seems to be growing at a faster rate than the other towns.

The water demands were shared as follows depending on the sector; for domestic water demand, 75% of the increase went to Nyangores tributary since Bomet town is likely to grow faster than the other towns, 75% of the remainder to Amala and the rest to Mara tributary. For

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 32 institutional water demand increase, 75% was allocated to Mara since the area has potential for more tourist hotels opening up, 75% of the remainder to Bomet and the rest to Amala.

Livestock water demand increase was assumed to remain constant because it is hard to project livestock numbers since livestock die in large numbers due to droughts for example the drought that occurred during the research period that hit various parts of the whole country. Environmental water demand was assumed to remain constant over the years.

Projection of future water supplies in the basin was beyond the scope of this study. Table 4.3 below shows the projected water demands for domestic, agriculture and hospitality industry at five years intervals.

Table 4.3: Existing and projected annual water demand (103m3/year) for Mara river basin

SECTORS 2006 2011 2016 2021 Domestic 394 468 556 660 Agriculture 6,573 7,807 9,272 11,013 Institutional 275 327 389 462

4.4 WAFLEX model This section presents an overview of how the WAFLEX model was configured. The aim here is to apply a model for simulating the basin’s response to changes in water allocation scenarios.

The Mara river system is represented as having three main segments. The main stem is the Mara river and two main branches which represent the Nyangores tributary on the left and Amala tributary on the right. The two tributaries meet to form the confluence of Mara river. The water users are shown alongside the tributaries. The river system as conceptualized in figure 4.1 was schematized in Ms Excel as interlinked cells (WAFLEX model). See appendix 5 for the schematized river basin.

The model is based on a network of spreadsheet cells which are interlinked. The inputs into the model in this study include inflows (runoff) on the two tributaries and water demands

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 33 along the river. Water balance is calculated for each cell. Each cell should sum the flow that comes from upstream. For each time step (month), the flow is calculated in each cell adding up the flows of upstream and adjacent cells. Flow availability on each node is calculated by adding the inflows from upstream to downstream as (=inflow-demands).

4.4.1 Definition of system variables The system variables in WAFLEX model include the water demands, inflows and outflows. This section describes how the water demands were incorporated in the WAFLEX model. Some basic assumptions were made for simplicity when representing the users/water demands along the river in the WAFLEX model. The users with the same purpose along the same river stretch were lumped together and various notations adopted as described in the following sections. These notations includes but not limited to ws=domestic use (both for water supplies and individuals), Agric=irrigation demand, L=livestock demand, inst=institutions, H=hotels, Envi for Environment. The tributaries were represented as Tributary 1-Nyangores, Tributary2-Amala, Tributary 3-Mara river.

The lumping was done on almost all the water uses. For example, instead of having so many small irrigated farms, they will be combined to form one agriculture project called agric1, agric2 e.t.c. Some users were assumed to have only one abstraction point with others attached to it. For example, the case of ws3 which has ws31, ws32 and ws33 on it, meaning there are three water supplies assumed to have one point of abstraction. Water supplies along the tributary 1 were also named depending on number of abstraction nodes and number of water supplies e.g. a water supply along tributary 2, was named ws4-7, to mean the fourth abstraction node but the seventh water supply (See figure 5.1).

(a) Domestic water demand For domestic uses, the notation that was adopted for representation of domestic water demand in the model is WS to mean water abstracted for domestic use either by water supply facilities or individuals.

(b)Water for irrigation Water for irrigation purposes was be lumped together both for large and small-scale irrigation. The type of crops grown under irrigation and acreage was ignored because of two major reasons. One, records in the water permits were not consistent and two limitations of

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 34 the model. For example, some permits were not indicating the types of crops grown under irrigation and acreage.

Water abstracted for irrigation purposes was represented as Agric1, Agric2, and Agric3 and so on. If there are two agricultural projects on a tributary, the name will start with tributary number, followed by the number of project starting from upstream e.g. Agric12, Agric22 e.t.c

(c) Institutional demand Institutions include hospitals, schools and hotels. The notations adopted were Inst1, Inst2 e.t.c and again it will depend on the tributary. If institutions are on the upstream of tributary1, the notation will be Inst11 and if on downstream Inst12 and so on.

The notations adopted for hotels are H1 for hotels along tributary1, H2 hotels along tributary2 and H3 along tributary3. H1 and H2 represent the small hotel businesses in either side of the two tributaries. The hotels get their water from the river using animal power. H3 represents the major tourist hotels in Mara river. They have been lumped together and assumed to have one abstraction point (See appendix 4).

(d) Livestock water demand Water for livestock was represented as L1, L2, and L3. The livestock were assumed to have two drinking points along the tributaries. For example, L21 will be on the upstream while L22 will be downstream of tributary 1 and so on. Livestock here includes cattle, goats and sheep.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 35 Nyangores ws11 Amala ws12 ws4-7 L21 Dam WS ws31 ws32 ws33 Agric21

L11 H2 Inst21 ws3

Inst11 H1

Inst12 L12 L22 Inst22

Agric1 E1 Agric22

E2 L31 Agric31

Agric32 WS5-8

Mara H31 H33 H34 H36 H37

H3 Game H32 H35 reserve E3

Downstream

Fig. 4.1: Conceptualization of the Mara water resources system

The following steps were followed when developing the model:

• Step 1: Create excel sheets for the various components. The river schematization was done in the supply sheet. In this sheet, the flows were also calculated in the downstream direction. In demand sheet, schematization of the river was also done and the demands in the river network calculated by adding them in the upstream direction. Abstraction points were represented in the network as nodes. Reservoir sheets may

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 36 also included if there are reservoirs and can be operated with rule curves. There were no reservoirs in the basin. The macros were written in the macros sheet. • Step 2: Cells were interlinked to form the river system including all outflows and inflows into the river. Various colors were used to represent the users along the river. • Step 3: In the series sheet, the inputs (observed run off) and all the demands (calculated somewhere else) were copied in columns. V-LOOKUP FUNCTIONS were also defined, which look up for each time step calculation. • Step 4: The supply sheet and the series sheet were linked using the = (INDIRECT FUNCTION). On each node, a logical operation was put to allow abstraction if the flow in the river is more than the environmental flow and to allow no abstraction if the flow is less than the environmental flow. This was meant to protect the river by ensuring that the required flows for its sustenance are maintained. An example of a logical operation on a water supply (WS2) node along Nyangores tributary was defined as:

=IF ((conWS2-Envi11-WS2)>0, conWS2-WS2, IF ((conWS2>Envi11), Envi11, conWS2))

If the flow at a particular node (in this case water supply 2) is greater than zero and less than the demand, let it be the environmental allocation and abstraction at that node, and if the inflow into a particular node is less than the environmental water needs, allow no abstraction, let the inflow just flow to sustain the river.

• Step 5: The model makes use macros to simulate the system. Macros were written in the macro sheet using visual basic program in Ms Excel. An example of macros used is shown below.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 37

Sub Computation() 'This procedure starts a loop to compute all time

steps

For Count = 1 To Range("end").Value Range("Counter").Value =

Count Calculatetimestep Next Count

End Sub '------Sub Calculatetimestep() 'Computation of one timestep. Each time step the results in the range $output are copied 'to the right location in the output table.

Application.Calculate Range("Output").Copy Range("Output").Offset(Range("Counter").Value + 4, 0).PasteSpecial

(xlPasteValues)

End Sub ______

• For scenario1, the model was run without environmental flows, the second run with environmental flow for Nyangores, for Amala and for Mara consecutively. The downstream flow was noted for each run. Other scenarios were run to include increased agricultural water demand, expansion of tourism industry, and increased domestic water demand. LOGICAL OPERATIONS were also used for example to monitor the shortages.

4.4.2 Water Balance Water balance calculations were used to monitor the errors in the model and to ensure that all water within the system was accounted for. The following water balance equation was used:

Water inflow – water outflow-change in storage = 0 Inflows- abstractions-downstream- unaccounted losses = 0.

4.4.3 Sensitivity analysis The models’ sensitivity was checked by changing the water demand on some nodes. A slight change in water demands like increasing the demand or decreasing it on any node was reflected on the downstream flow.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 38 CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This chapter presents a summary of research findings of the study including water availability, water uses and some model outputs.

6.1 Water resources availability From the data analysed, this study found out that Mara river basin has enough water to meet all the water requirements and that the river is not over-abstracted. Nyangores tributary has a mean annual runoff off of 8.79m3/s, Amala, has 7.31 m3/s while the station downstream at Mara mines has 36.85 m3/s (1162Mm3). The mean monthly averages of the three stations analyzed are shown in Appendix 6. Obviously, the biggest contribution is from the ungauged South Eastern branch of the river. The total abstractions were estimated at 22Mm3 on the Kenyan side only. Along Nyangores tributary, the abstractions were estimated at 0.9 Mm3, Amala about 0.6 Mm3 while Mara river had about 0.7 Mm3 per month.

The major uses of water in the basin are domestic, agriculture, livestock and institutional. The livestock sector is the largest water consumer; this is because the river crosses large pastoral areas particularly Masai land where the main economic activity is livestock rearing. Agriculture is the second major water user, followed by domestic and institutions. Figure 6.1 below shows water use summary of the various sectors.

Water use by sectors

4% 20% Domestic 30% Agriculture Livestock Institutional 46%

Figure 6.1: Water use by sectors

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 39 Hydro-power generation is a minor user found on the upstream at Tenwek Mission Hospital. It is worth noting that there are many illegal abstractors along the river, and it was not possible to reach most of them due to wet weather conditions and time limitations hence the real abstractions could be slightly more than what the researcher found out. Other major users who could not be reached include some tourist hotels along the Mara. The study also could not establish water demand by wildlife due to lack of good reliable data.

6.2 Scenarios The study ran 2 major water allocation scenarios in WAFLEX model including implications of allocating water for the environment, impacts of increased water demands on available water resources. In the first major scenario, the first run did not incorporate the environment while the next three runs incorporated the environment on each tributary. The second major scenario included the environment and the projected demands and was run 3 times (3 years: 2010, 2016, 2021). The following section describes the scenarios analysed and their implications on other users.

6.2.1 Environmental water demand The new Water Act recognizes the environment as a legitimate water user and should be given priority together with domestic water use. However, the Act is silent on how much should be reserved for the environment or even how the reserve should be determined. This study explored the implications of reserving water for the environment. The study set on an arbitrary figure of 5% of mean annual runoff as environmental reserve as mentioned earlier, due to lack of precise figures or guidelines. This was arrived at from the interviews carried out with the water officers in the Ministry of Water and Irrigation. The environmental water demand was calculated for each tributary.

The study found out that, the basin has enough water but when the reserve was introduced on each tributary, some users in Mara could not meet their water needs to full satisfaction as shown in appendix 7. The graph shows that there were no shortages without the environmental reserve but when the environment was introduced, some shortages were recorded in the downstream. When the model was run with no environmental reserve, the downstream flow was 52.4 Mm3/yr and when the environment was included the downstream flows increased to 59.3 Mm3/yr. The model was run three times to assess the implications of environmental flows on other users. In Scenario 1, the reserve was incorporated in Nyangores

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 40 tributary; second scenario, Amala tributary and third scenario for Mara river. The downstream flow was recorded for each run.

When the reserve for Nyangores was incorporated, the downstream flow increased from 52.4 Mm3 to 53.5 Mm3 (Scenario1). When Amala environmental reserve (Scenario2) was incorporated, the flow further increased to 54.4 Mm3. With Mara environmental reserve, the flow downstream flow again increased to 59.3 Mm3 (Scenario 3) Since the environment is a non-consumptive water user, reserving water for environment will mean an increase in the downstream flow. These values are far much below 96.8 Mm3/yr which was observed at the gauging station at Mara mines.

This could be attributed to two major reasons. One of the reasons could be under-estimation of the water demands in the river, second, could be as a result of extra inflows contributed by the ungauged Eastern and South Eastern part of the basin. It could also be that, since the better part of the basin is a protected area (Mara-Serengeti ecosystem), there are no abstractions in the park. The table below depicts the increase of downstream flows with the introduction of environmental reserve.

Table 6.2: Reduction of flows on the downstream with environmental water demand for the 3 scenarios

Environment Initial Final Percentage Tributary 5% MAR downstream downstream reduction of (Mm3/month) flow flow flow (%) (Mm3/year) (Mm3/year) Nyangores 1.14 52.4 53.5 2.1 Amala 0.96 53.5 54.4 1.7 Mara 4.8 54.4 59.3 8.1

This is a clear indication that reserving some water for the environment will not have significant changes on the amount of water available for other users both for downstream and

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 41 upstream users. The environment can easily be catered for with ease since river basin has plenty of water. However, it was noted that in some time steps where the flows were very low, reservation of 5% of MAR was too high, causing water shortages and hence reduced satisfaction levels of some water users. This therefore means that, there is need for proper determination of the ecological reserve.

The study also showed that reserving 5% of MAR might be challenging. For example, a user might be requiring only 2% of the total flow to irrigate his farm. It will be unfair to deny the user in order to 5% reserve for the environment. In order to incorporate the environment, some compromises will have to be made between the various sectors.

6.3.2 Future water demand for agriculture, domestic and hospitality industry The study investigated the impact of increased domestic and hospitality water demand on the downstream flows. With population increases, water for domestic purposes is also likely to increase; more people are likely to have piped water in their homesteads. Further, the study looked at the possibilities for expansion of the hospitality industry in Mara, more hotels, lodges and camps are likely to be opened up in the near future.

For all the future demands, the model was run with projected demands for year 2011, 2016 and 2021 and the results are as shown in table 6.3. There was a reduction of flows as the total demand for the sectors increased with time. With increased demands, the satisfaction level of most of the users was reduced due to competition of water resources. This is depicted in appendix 6. The shortages were also experienced from the downstream users (Mara) and increased to reach more upstream users. The study shows that users along Amala will be more affected than users along Nyangores.

The percentages of water shortages experienced by different users increased with time as shown in table 6.4. The table shows the range of shortages by particular sectors. The ranges increased as the demand increased due to competition of water resources. Water for environment was assumed to be a constant value for all the years. Any increase of upstream demands will reduce the water available for downstream users.

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 42 Table 6.3: Reduction of flows as a result of increased future irrigation, domestic and hospitality industry water demands.

SECTOR DEMANDS (103m3/Month) YEARS Flow Domestic Agriculture Institutional Environment (Mm3/year) 2006 32 547 22 6,947 52.4 2011 39 650 27 6,947 51.3 2016 46 772 32 6,947 39.5 2021 55 917 38 6,947 2.2

This study also investigated the variation of river flows over the years. As shown in Appendix 6, the basin has been experiencing fluctuations in river flows with notable flood peaks and also very low flows during the dry season. The reduction of flows at the downstream with increased demand and reservation of water for environment means that proper water allocation measures have to be put in place to prevent water conflicts in future.

Table 6.4: Percentages of shortages as a result of environment and increased water demands

PERCENTAGE SHORTAGES (%) YEARS WITHOUT ENVIRONMENT Domestic Agriculture Institutional Environment 2006 0 0 0 0 WITH ENVIRONMENT 2006 0-7 2-10 2-10 0 2011 0-10 2-11 2-13 0 2016 1-36 9-29 3-35 0 2021 26-98 70-92 66-99 0

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 43 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This chapter gives a summary of this research and ends with some important recommendations which can be adopted to improve water resources management in Mara river basin and elsewhere in Kenya. The recommended strategies are based on the research findings, gaps and issues identified in the course of the study.

The study adopted WAFLEX model to run various scenarios of water allocation. These include reservation of water for environment, possibility of increased water demands in future. It was found that environmental flows can easily be provided since there is enough water (1162 Mm3) in the basin. The study found out that reservation of 5 % of MAR on each tributary; Nyangores 1.14 Mm3/month, Amala-0.96 Mm3/month, Mara - 4.8 Mm3/month every month for environment will only have an impact on available water resources for upstream users who will be required not to abstract but let the water flow for the environment and downstream users. The 5% MAR blanket reservation is not practical particularly in low flow seasons.

The Mara-Serengeti ecosystem will be under threat if environmental flows are not provided for and if upstream development is not controlled. Since the environment is not a consumptive use, provision of environmental flows will increase the downstream flows as shown in table 6.2, to help sustain the ecosystem. With increased agricultural development, expansion of tourist hotels along Mara and increased demand for domestic water, the study noted a tremendous decrease of downstream flow from 52.4 Mm3 to 2 Mm3 between 2006- 2021.

These reductions of river flows will cause loss of biodiversity, foreign exchange earned from the reserve and irreversible river degradation. Kenya must ensure that enough surface runoff reaches Lake Victoria which forms the part of headwaters of River Nile to avert future trans- boundary conflicts.

The study concludes that WAFLEX model is a reliable decision-making support tool which can be used to inform the policy makers and decision makers of any impacts of proposed

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 44 developments on the river. The model gives a quick response of the basin to any physical changes on the basin. It can be used to guide future water allocation procedures; in accommodating new entrants, sharing the water equitably among the sectors in times of shortages. The model can also be used in other river basins by modifying it to suit the river basins’ characteristics. However, since this is the first attempt to apply the model in the basin, the results from this study should be used with care.

The study recommends the following strategies to help improve water resources management in Mara river basin.

¾ Although the water resources in Mara river basin seem to be plenty water to meet the needs of the various sectors, there is need for enforcement of laws to ensure sustainability of the water resource. The Lake Victoria South Basin Authority should ensure that illegal abstractors and polluters should be charged heavily. There is need to control development along the river and environmental impact assessment should be compulsory. Water quality should also be monitored especially pollution from farm runoff from the farms and hotel discharges.

¾ Hydro-meteorological data collection like river flows, rainfall, demands and supply should be given priority in water resources management. Lack of reliable, up to-date data is a major handicap in water resources management. The study recommends the used of advanced technology like Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) for data collection. Rainfall estimates and stream flow prediction particularly in the ungauged Eastern and Southern Western side of the basin can easily be done using GIS and RS.

¾ In view of the existing water problems in Mara river basin, particularly lack of water for domestic use as indicated by average travel distance, 2km, to water sources and water shortages that might be experienced with increased economic development, the study recommends the construction of a dam for multiple uses of water. This can ease water shortages problems particularly during the dry season. The rural poor are languishing in poverty when there is enough water that can be exploited to improve rural livelihoods and, also, store water for environmental; requirements in drier

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 45 seasons. The government may provide access subsidies to help the poor access water for domestic use and other productive uses.

¾ Mara river basin being a trans-boundary resource, the two governments should work hand in hand and develop policies and strategies that will promote sustainability and ensure continued benefits from the river. Stakeholders’ involvement in planning and development of the river is important. This should include all the relevant ministries like tourism, agriculture, livestock, forestry; water users and experts in all fields.

¾ The study recommends further research in quantification of ecological reserve for Mara River. The 5% of MAR used in this study which was assumed arbitrarily is not conclusive; ecological reserve should vary during over seasons depending on the flow in the river because sometimes it might be too low or high or too and there fore difficult to provide for it.

¾ If the 5% MAR is to be maintained then reservoirs should be considered to regulate flows. There is also need for valuation of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem goods and services to help aid water allocation decisions in the basin. Further research is also recommended in determination of wildlife water demand

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 46

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Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 49 APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN MARA RIVER BASIN (1999, CENSUS) PROVNAME CODE_SUB SUB_NAME MALE FEMALE TOTAL H_HOLD TRUE_AREA

RIFT VALLEY 156014 KAPSASIAN 3585 3807 7392 1301 30.0 RIFT VALLEY 156006 EMURUA DIKIRR 3293 3772 7065 1268 33.0 RIFT VALLEY 156019 KIRIBWET 2168 2468 4636 883 29.0 RIFT VALLEY 156005 EMARTI 1096 1117 2213 417 40.0 RIFT VALLEY 156043 OLKERIN 3929 4165 8094 1596 58.0 RIFT VALLEY 156034 NTULELE 1318 1428 2746 606 48.0 RIFT VALLEY 156020 KIRINDONI 1704 1644 3348 720 59.0 RIFT VALLEY 156020 KIRINDONI 1704 1644 3348 720 59.0 RIFT VALLEY 156050 OLOOLOLO 588 537 1125 265 80.0 RIFT VALLEY 156047 OLOLMONGI 2251 1872 4123 917 581.0 RIFT VALLEY 156016 KERINKANNE 1342 1425 2767 530 57.0 RIFT VALLEY 156035 OLAITENG 823 862 1685 318 10.0 RIFT VALLEY 156002 ANGATA 1603 1670 3273 683 156.0 51815 10224 RIFT VALLEY 154084 OLPUSIMORU 4888 5122 10010 1878 240.0 RIFT VALLEY 154075 OLOKURTO 2697 2630 5327 1013 326.0 RIFT VALLEY 154098 TENDWET 1764 1738 3502 641 381.0 RIFT VALLEY 154077 OLOLULUNGA 8299 7915 16214 3541 355.0 RIFT VALLEY 154089 SAGAMIAN 2748 2686 5434 927 21.0 RIFT VALLEY 154094 SOGOO 4990 5119 10109 1794 35.0 RIFT VALLEY 154039 MOGOIWET 1945 1987 3932 651 13.0 RIFT VALLEY 154024 ILMOTIOK 5562 5965 11527 2038 60.0 RIFT VALLEY 154038 MELELO 3895 3939 7834 1466 95.0 RIFT VALLEY 154062 OLCHORRO OIROUA 1436 1464 2900 528 13.0 RIFT VALLEY 154051 NKIITO 1235 1277 2512 431 13.0 RIFT VALLEY 154042 MULOT 3027 3070 6097 1176 38.0 RIFT VALLEY 154031 KUTO 2828 2939 5767 1010 9.0 RIFT VALLEY 154055 NKORIKORI 4178 3941 8119 1711 129.0 RIFT VALLEY 154088 RONGENA 3254 3262 6516 1216 58.0 RIFT VALLEY 154006 ENELERAI 1127 1193 2320 470 32.0 RIFT VALLEY 154032 LEMEK 4201 3787 7988 1820 553.0 RIFT VALLEY 154069 OLKINYEI 1007 1100 2107 447 259.0 RIFT VALLEY 154046 NARASHA 1185 1440 2625 591 496.0 RIFT VALLEY 154035 MARARIANDA 1552 1291 2843 661 412.0 RIFT VALLEY 154001 AITONG 1435 1470 2905 622 261.0 RIFT VALLEY 154034 MAJI MOTO 1210 1293 2503 535 341.0 RIFT VALLEY 154030 KOYAKI 2069 1977 4046 824 532.0 RIFT VALLEY 154091 SEKENANI 1002 944 1946 443 639.0 RIFT VALLEY 154009 ENKIU 781 771 1552 295 151.0 RIFT VALLEY 154052 NKIMPA 261 305 566 125 81.0 RIFT VALLEY 154052 NKIMPA 261 305 566 125 81.0 RIFT VALLEY 154037 MEGWARA 1433 1613 3046 578 296.0 RIFT VALLEY 154054 NKOILALE 1937 1327 3264 876 224.0 RIFT VALLEY 154048 NAROOSURA 2447 2386 4833 1004 190.0 RIFT VALLEY 154092 SIANA 2658 2653 5311 1155 428.0 RIFT VALLEY 154086 OSARARA 577 700 1277 302 108.0 RIFT VALLEY 154043 NAIKARA 1944 2058 4002 882 225.0 RIFT VALLEY 154016 ENTUROTO 677 784 1461 326 88.0 RIFT VALLEY 154033 LESHUTA 1233 1371 2604 554 191.0 RIFT VALLEY 154018 ESOIT 1539 1506 3045 659 248.0 RIFT VALLEY 154040 MORIJO LOITA 1395 1385 2780 549 395.0 RIFT VALLEY 154040 MORIJO LOITA 1395 1385 2780 549 395.0 RIFT VALLEY 154063 OLDERKESI 1454 1489 2943 636 178.0 RIFT VALLEY 154022 ILMARAE 920 918 1838 386 87.0 RIFT VALLEY 154057 NKOPON 430 457 887 178 110.0 177838 35613 RIFT VALLEY 152063 KITIRO 1312 850 2162 528 131.0 RIFT VALLEY 152094 MILIMET 1776 1392 3168 632 30.0 RIFT VALLEY 152062 KIPTUNGA 535 526 1061 229 115.0 RIFT VALLEY 152012 BARAGET 364 331 695 128 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 152016 CHEBARA 1237 1250 2487 446 30.0 RIFT VALLEY 152046 KAPSIMBEIYWO 1989 1934 3923 704 24.0 RIFT VALLEY 152045 KAPNANDA 2865 2744 5609 1285 91.0 RIFT VALLEY 152129 SILIBWET 936 844 1780 324 12.0

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 50 RIFT VALLEY 152036 IRONGO 844 851 1695 278 9.0 RIFT VALLEY 152026 CHEPTUECH 864 855 1719 308 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 152047 KAPUGUNOT 769 770 1539 285 9.0 RIFT VALLEY 152031 EMITIK 986 1086 2072 385 10.0 RIFT VALLEY 152044 KAPLAMAI 2075 2088 4163 772 22.0 RIFT VALLEY 152023 CHEPAKUNDI 1431 1457 2888 544 25.0 54879 11250 RIFT VALLEY 145030 KABUSARE 3181 3132 6313 1081 19.0 RIFT VALLEY 145113 TEGANDA 1840 1866 3706 656 14.0 RIFT VALLEY 145096 NYANGORES 1152 1145 2297 404 7.0 RIFT VALLEY 145002 AISAK 1543 1507 3050 533 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 145090 MUGANGO 1601 1550 3151 598 10.0 RIFT VALLEY 145070 KITOBEN 1702 1713 3415 596 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145105 SILIBWET 3331 3350 6681 1264 14.0 RIFT VALLEY 145069 KIROMWOK 2859 2874 5733 949 15.0 RIFT VALLEY 145088 MOTIGO 2244 2248 4492 793 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145049 KAPSIMOTWO 2967 2992 5959 1038 12.0 RIFT VALLEY 145084 MENET 2004 2126 4130 714 13.0 RIFT VALLEY 145018 CHEPNGAINA 3446 3077 6523 1883 10.0 RIFT VALLEY 145067 KIPYOSIT 1803 1935 3738 658 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 145086 MERIGI 1913 2017 3930 684 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145024 ITEMBE 1859 2080 3939 681 28.0 RIFT VALLEY 145015 CHEPKOLON 1765 1711 3476 617 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 145048 KAPSIMBIRI 1124 1123 2247 396 6.0 RIFT VALLEY 145114 TEGAT 2165 2319 4484 814 13.0 RIFT VALLEY 145108 SITOTWET 1402 1420 2822 526 9.0 RIFT VALLEY 145014 CHEPKITWAL 1909 1973 3882 717 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 145079 LELKATET 1659 1738 3397 600 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 145012 CHEMANER 1140 1202 2342 412 9.0 RIFT VALLEY 145076 KYONGONG 2294 2336 4630 862 17.0 RIFT VALLEY 145027 KABISOGE 1976 2096 4072 746 18.0 RIFT VALLEY 145007 CHEBOIN 1956 1953 3909 712 15.0 RIFT VALLEY 145044 KAPORUSO 2320 2374 4694 875 13.0 RIFT VALLEY 145075 KONGOTIK 2229 2350 4579 855 16.0 RIFT VALLEY 145047 KAPSIGIRIO 714 759 1473 242 4.0 RIFT VALLEY 145006 CHAMBORI 700 762 1462 267 5.0 RIFT VALLEY 145068 KIRIBA 1187 1370 2557 484 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145068 KIRIBA 1187 1370 2557 484 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145052 KICHUTMOI 1826 1966 3792 705 16.0 RIFT VALLEY 145054 KIMENDERIT 1104 1277 2381 470 9.0 RIFT VALLEY 145022 EMITYOT 1472 1637 3109 597 10.0 RIFT VALLEY 145102 SEGEMIK 1693 1896 3589 667 12.0 RIFT VALLEY 145073 KOITASILIBWET 2008 2228 4236 837 77.0 RIFT VALLEY 145071 KOIBEIYON 2298 2626 4924 1024 22.0 RIFT VALLEY 145066 KIPTULWA 1364 1432 2796 543 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145101 SAMITUK 1458 1585 3043 655 10.0 RIFT VALLEY 145037 KAPKESOSIO 900 939 1839 358 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 145095 NYAMBOGO 1657 1928 3585 695 17.0 RIFT VALLEY 145053 KIMAYA 1518 1587 3105 582 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145107 SIONGIROI 187 2105 3975 753 31.0 RIFT VALLEY 145116 TUMOI 1139 1236 2375 465 12.0 RIFT VALLEY 145092 NDUBAI 1555 1781 3336 693 12.0 RIFT VALLEY 145038 KAPKIMOLWA 1744 1957 3701 731 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145019 CHEPTAGUM 962 1143 2105 458 7.0 RIFT VALLEY 145058 KIPLABOTWA 1168 1288 2456 471 11.0 RIFT VALLEY 145111 SUGUMERGA 1263 1416 2679 522 10.0 RIFT VALLEY 145003 AREIYET 1409 1559 2968 538 14.0 RIFT VALLEY 145061 KIPRERES 1828 2049 3877 797 18.0 RIFT VALLEY 145104 SIGOR 2201 2437 4638 896 19.0 RIFT VALLEY 145026 KABISIMBA 1351 1453 2804 476 13.0 RIFT VALLEY 145065 KIPSUTER 1387 1481 2848 528 8.0 RIFT VALLEY 145041 KAPLIYO 1708 1900 3608 769 12.0 RIFT VALLEY 145010 CHEBUNYO 2658 2888 5546 1023 20.0

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 51 APPENDIX 2: DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY AND AGRICULTURAL DEMANDS

DOMESTIC Amount(m^3/d) Amount(m^3/yr) AGRICULTURE Amount(m^3/d) Amount(m^3/yr ws1 ws11 Kapcheluch 70.0 25,550.0 Agric1 Forester 10.5 3,814.3 Forester 40.9 14,928.5 Samuel Cheruiyot Kerich 27.3 9,964.5 Total 110.9 40,478.5 Stanley K Ngetich 6.0 2,190.0 Stanley Sang 6.0 2,190.0 ws22 Mugombet 100.0 36,500.0 Total 49.8 18,158.8 Kenya Highland Bible College 36.3 13,264.1 Total 136.3 49,764.1 Agric21 County Council of Kipsigis 245.5 89,589.3 Shimo Ltd 2,272.7 829,535.5 WS2 21 Tenwek Hosp 130.2 47,515.7 Rongena Focal Are Devp 4.5 1,657.1 Tenwek Sch 2.7 975.3 Mara River Basin Water Users 29.1 10,617.9 Tirgaga Tea Factory 2.0 730.0 Kiplangat 6.3 2,299.5 Stanley K Ngetich 1.4 514.7 Antony Koske 1,976.0 721,240.0 Stanley Sang 0.8 292.0 Agnes Wambui 29.0 10,585.0 Total 137.1 25,550.0 Total 4,563.1 1,665,524.2

ws3 31 Bomet 130.0 47,450.0 Agric22 Ndakini Farm Limited 2,272.7 829,542.8 32 Sigor 400.0 146,000.0 Ndakaini Farm Ltd 100.0 36,500.0 33 Chepalungu 200.0 73,000.0 Ndakaini Farm Ltd 1,272.2 464,353.0 Samuel Cheruiyot Kerich 0.9 332.2 Ndakaini Farm Ltd 908.0 331,420.0 County Council of Kipsigis 245.2 89,514.4 Total 4,552.9 1,661,815.8 Kaboson Sec+Disp 21.0 7,665.0 Kaptilolwo Women Group 151.6 55,334.0 Agric31 Musola Agricultual Contractors 2,000.0 730,000.0 Leonard Kimei 2.7 992.8 Olerai Limited 2,363.6 862,714.0 Kyongong Sec School 2.1 759.2 Shimo Ltd 1,136.4 414,771.4 Total 623.6 227,597.6 Francis Nicholas Brown (M. Lim 1,272.7 464,535.5 Total 6,772.7 2,472,020.9 Mulot Water Project 181.8 66,363.6 ws4-7 Rongena Focal Are Devp 95.4 34,821.0 Agri32 Glen Cottar Safaris 13.6 4,964.0 Kiplangat 11.3 4,124.5 Maasai Mara (SOPA) Lodge Lim 101.8 37,164.3 Ndakaini Farm Ltd 10.0 3,650.0 Kiplangat Arap Koech 63.2 23,068.0 Ndakaini Farm Ltd 10.0 3,650.0 Anthony Kipkoske Kimeto 1,818.2 663,635.7 Ndakaini Farm Ltd 37.5 13,687.5 Mara Koyiek 2.3 839.5 Ndakaini Farm Ltd 39.2 14,308.0 Sahakar Ltd 72.7 26,535.5 Total 2,071.8 756,207.0 Total 385.2 140,604.6 ws5-8 Maasai Mara (SOPA) Lodge Limite 25.5 9,289.3 Total Agric 6,573,726.7 m^3/yr Tourism Promotion Services Ltd 90.9 33,178.5 Mara Buffalo Camp 15.9 5,803.5 Kiplangat Arap Koech 5.9 2,153.5 Mpata Investments Ltd 100.0 36,500.0 Total Ws 394,198.2 m^3/yr

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 52 APPENDIX 3: ESTIMATED WATER DEMANDS FOR HOTELS Hotel/Lodge No.of Beds Hotel code Percapita per bed (l/d) Water demand (l/d) High season(m^3/yr) Low season(m^3/yr)

Base camp 30 H31 350 10500 23100 8431.5 2107.875 Christal 12 H31 4200 Enkanng 24 H31 8400 Governers 76 H32 26600 92400 33726 8431.5 Keekorok 166 H32 58100 Kicheche Mara Camp 22 H32 7700 Mara Buffalo 126 H33 44100 72100 26316.5 6579.125 MaraHippo 20 H33 7000 Mara Intrepids 60 H33 21000 Mara Safari 100 H34 35000 143500 52377.5 13094.375 Mara Sarova 155 H34 54250 Mara Sarova Camp 155 H34 54250 Mara Simba 180 H35 63000 76650 27977.25 6994.3125 Masai Mara river Camp 32 H35 11200 Mateso bila Chuki 7 H35 2450 Olaro camp 16 H36 5600 13300 4854.5 1213.625 Old Boma 12 H36 4200 Oldobe Ltd 10 H36 3500 307400 112201 28050.25 Savuka tours and safaris 40 H37 14000 265884.25 Shompole 16 5600 Talek River Lodge 20 7000 Olonana Camp Limited 127300 Mpata Investments Ltd 150000 OTHER HOTELS (H1,H2) Bomet Amount(m^3/yr Centa View 720 262.8 Silent 520 189.8 Boston 600 219 Mar a I nn 600 219 Mar a Vi ew 400 146 California 862 314.63 Maitu Guest 1030 375.95 Israel 320 116.8 California complex 1030 375.95 Safari park 700 255.5 Twiggs 1045 381.425 Cannan 980 357.7

Total 8807 3214.555 Kaboson 5560 2029.4 Bomet+Kaboson (H1) 14367 5243.955 Other towns (H2) Mul ot 6500 2372.5 Longisa 6230 2273.95 Total 12730 4646.45 Total Hotels Demand(H1+H2+H3) 275774.655

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 53 APPENDIX 4: HEALTH FACILITIES IN BOMET AND NAROK DISTRICTS

Bomet District Narok District HEALTH FACILITY NO. OF BEDS HEALTH FACILITY NO. OF BEDS Longisa District Hospital 144 Sogoo H/C 12 Sigor Sub District Hospital 36 Aitong H/C 12 Kapkoros Health Centre 9 Naikarra H/C 8 Siongiroi Health Centre 12 Gelegele Health Centre 6 Tegat Health Centre 6 Olbutyo Health Centre 6 Bomet Health Centre 6 Tenwek Mission Centre 300 Sot Nursing Home 25 Kaboson Health Centre 24

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 54 APPENDIX 5: SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF WAFLEX MODEL IN MS EXCEL Inflow1 Nyangores Tributary 25,651,850 25,651,850 25,651,850 0 0 Envi1 25,651,850 Inflow2 Amala Tributary 25,651,850 25,648,477 3373.2083 3373.2083 ws11 28,590,983 25,648,477 28,590,983 25,648,477 28,590,983 0 0 Envi2 25,648,477 28,590,983 25,648,477 28,590,983 25,644,330 4147.0083 4147.0083 ws12 28,590,983 25,644,330 28,573,692 17290.75 17290.75 ws47 25,644,330 28,573,692 Tenwek Dam 25,644,330 28,573,692 Tenwek Dam 25,644,330 28,573,692 25,644,330 28,573,692 WS2 4168.969 4168.969 25,640,161 28,573,692 25,640,161 28,573,692 25,640,161 28,573,692 25,644,330 28,434,263 139429 139429 Liv21 25,644,330 28,434,263 25,640,161 28,434,263 25,640,161 28,434,263 ws32 25,640,161 28,434,263 12166.67 25,352,782 287379 287379 Liv11 28,434,263 12166.67 25,352,782 28,434,263 12166.67 25,352,782 28,434,263 12166.67 WS3 25,352,782 28,434,263 25049.65 25049.65 37216.32 37216.32 106379.3 106379.3 25,246,403 28,295,469 138793.7 138793.7 Agric21 25049.65 69163.01 25,246,403 28,295,469 25049.65 69163.01 25,246,403 28,295,469 ws33 25049.65 ws31 69163.01 25,246,403 28,295,469 25,187,416 58987.072 58987.072 Hot1 28,295,469 25,187,416 28,282,807 12662 12662 Hot2 25,187,416 28,282,807 25,187,416 28,282,807 813428.6 25,187,416 inst21 28,282,807 25,187,416 19411.91667 19411.91667 28,263,395 25,187,416 28,263,395 inst11 30807.52 30807.52 25,156,608 28,263,395 25,156,608 28,263,395 25,156,608 28,263,395 25,156,608 28,243,983 19411.92 19411.92 inst22 25,125,801 30807.521 30807.521 inst12 28,243,983 25,125,801 28,243,983 25,125,801 28,243,983 25,125,801 28,243,983 25,125,801 28,243,983 24,838,422 287379 287379 Liv12 28,243,983 24,838,422 28,243,983 24,838,422 28,243,983 24,838,422 28,243,983 24,838,422 Gauge1 28,243,983 24,838,422 28,104,554 139429 139429 Liv22 Agric1 40511.03 40511.03 24,797,911 28,104,554 24,797,911 28,104,554 Gauge2 24,797,911 28,104,554 24,797,911 28,104,554 24,797,911 28,104,554 24,797,911 28,104,554 24,797,911 27,983,021 121533.1 121533.1 Agric22 24,797,911 27,983,021 24,797,911 27,983,021 24,797,911 27,983,021 24,797,911 27,983,021 24,797,911 24,797,911 24,797,911 52,780,932 27,983,021 27,983,021 27,983,021 52,780,932 52,780,932 Envi3 0 0 52,780,932 52,780,932 52,780,932 486132.4 Agric32 52,780,932 Agric3 486132.4 52,088,798 692134.1561 692134.1561 692,134 486132.4 486132.4 52,088,798 206,002 52,088,798 206,002 52,088,798 206,002 52,088,798 206,002 ws58 5763.5841 5763.5841 52,083,034 206,002 Agric31 52,083,034 52,083,034 52,083,034 52,083,034 52,076,047 6987.407917 6987.407917 Liv3 52,076,047 52,076,047 52,076,047 Hot36 Hot34 Hot32 52,076,047 Hot37 308440 4854.5 184794 235948.3 52,076,047 308440 4854.5 184794 235948.3 H3 52,076,047 308440 308440 308440 313294.5 313294.5 341271.8 526065.8 552382.3 552382.3 788330.5 788,331 796762.04 796762.04 51,279,285 27977.25 26316.5 8431.5 51,279,285 Hot35 27977.25 26316.5 Hot31 8431.5 51,279,285 Hot33 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 Game Reserve 51,279,285 0 0 GR 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 51,279,285 Gauge3 51,279,285 Downstream 51,279,285

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 55 APPENDIX 6: Variation of river flows over the years

Longterm mean monthly averages of 1LA03, 1LB02 and 107072

340.00

290.00

240.00

190.00

140.00 Flow (m^3/s)

90.00

40.00

-10.00 1 3 0 2 76 981 988 990 1970 1970 197 1972 1973 197 1974 1975 19 1976 1977 1978 1979 1979 198 1 1982 198 1983 1984 1985 1985 1986 1987 1 1988 1989 1 1991 1991 Years 1LB02 1LA03 107072

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 1 APPENDIX 7: Water shortages with environment and without the environment

12

10

8

6

4

2

Percentage of shortages of Percentage 0 ws11 WS2 WS3 Hot1 L12 E1 L21 inst21 inst22 Agric22 ws5-8 Agric3 GR -2 With Environm ent Water users (upstream to downstream) Without Environment

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 2 APPENDIX 8: Water shortages as a result of environment and increased water demands

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 Percentageshoratages of 1 1 8 3 2 1 1 c3 s1 S L1 E L2 t2 GR -20w WS2 W Hot1 s s5- in inst22 w Agri 2006 Agric22 2010 Water users (downstream to downstream) 2016 2021

Master of Science (IWRM) 2006 3