Vol. 58 (1) - January 2009 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int uary 2009 n , and the air we breathe e 58 - Ja (1) Volum

Message from the Secretary-General 4

Climate change and air quality 10 , dust- and sandstorms and the Indian 22 WMO research and development activities to benefit Africa 41

Carbonaceous aerosol

etin 54 Atmospheric deposition to the ocean: marine MO Bull

W ecosystems and climate 61

World Meteorological Organization

7bis, avenue de la Paix - Case postale 2300 - CH-1211 Geneva 2 - Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 81 11 - Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 81 81 E-mail: [email protected] - Website: www.wmo.int

Air quality, ISSN 0042-9767 Greenhouse gases Air-quality management and weather weather and climate and urban pollution 16 prediction during the Beijing Olympics 31 in Mexico City 48 … the development of comprehensive monitoring systems, data-assimilation tools and predictive models that integrate a diverse set of data into a coherent framework is a priority.

Guy Brasseur Bulletin The journal of the Contents World Meteorological Organization In this issue ...... 2 Message from the Secretary-General on the occasion of World Volume 58 (1) - January 2009 Meteorological Day 2009 ...... 4

Secretary-General M. Jarraud World Climate Conference-3 ...... 8 Deputy Secretary-General Hong Yan Implications of climate change for air quality by Guy P. Brasseur ...... 10 Assistant Secretary-General J. Lengoasa The global atmosphere: greenhouse gases and urban pollution The WMO Bulletin is published quarterly by Euan Nisbet and Martin Manning ...... 16 (January, April, July, October) in English, French, Possible influences of air pollution, dust- and sandstorms on Russian and Spanish editions. the Indian monsoon by William K.M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Christina N. Hsu and Editor Hong Yan Brent N. Holben ...... 22 Associate Editor Judith C.C. Torres Air-quality management and weather prediction during the 2008 by Jianjie Wang, Xiaoye Zhang, Tom Keenan and Yihong Duan Editorial board Beijing Olympics ... 31 Hong Yan (Chair) WMO research and development activities in air quality, weather and J. Torres (Secretary) climate to benefit Africa by André Kamga Foamouhoue, Jose María Baldasano, G. Asrar (climate research) Emilio Cuevas Agulló, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Eugene Poolman L. Barrie (atmospheric research and and Madeleine Thomson...... 41 environment) G. Love (weather and disaster risk reduction) Air quality, weather and climate in Mexico City by Luisa T. Molina, E. Manaenkova (policy, external relations) Benjamin de Foy, Oscar Vázquez Martínez and Víctor Hugo Páramo Figueroa ...... 48 R. Masters (development, regional activities) The carbonaceous aerosol—a remaining challenge by Karl Espen Yttri, B. Nyenzi (climate) Cathrine Lund Myhre and Kjetil Tørseth ...... 54 B. Ryan (satellites) D. Schiessl (strategic planning) The impacts of atmospheric deposition to the ocean on marine A. Tyagi (water) ecosystems and climate by Robert A. Duce, James N. Galloway and J. Wilson (education and training) Peter S. Liss ...... 61 Wenjian Zhang (observing and information systems) Fifty years ago ...... 67 Obituary ...... 70 Subscription rates Surface mail Air mail News from the WMO Secretariat ...... 71 1 year CHF 60 CHF 85 Calendar ...... 76 2 years CHF 110 CHF 150 3 years CHF 145 CHF 195 The World Meteorological Organization ...... 77

E-mail: [email protected] Members of the World Meteorological Organization ...... 78

News of WMO activities and recent events may be found in WMO’s newsletter Copyright © World Meteorological Organization, 2008 MeteoWorld (www.wmo.int/pages/publications/meteoworld/index_en.html), in the The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from NEWS section on the WMO homepage (http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/ articles in the Bulletin may be reproduced without authoriza- index_en.html) and on the Web pages of WMO programmes via the WMO homepage tion provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce (http://www.wmo.int) or translate articles in part or in whole should be addressed to the Editor. The designations employed in the WMO Bulletin and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city WMO Bulletin or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of www.wmo.int/bulletin_en its frontiers or boundaries. Public information Products and Website Management Unit Opinions expressed in articles or in advertisements appearing in the WMO Bulletin are the author’s or advertiser’s opinions World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products in articles or advertisements 7bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: + 41 22 730 84 78 does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by Case postale No. 2300 Fax: + 41 22 730 80 24 WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] In this issue

The theme of World Meteorological WMO enhances the capabilities of such as and on Day this year is “Weather, climate Member countries to provide air- a regional basis. The extent of the and the air we breathe”. This issue quality forecasting, illustrating the modification and its societal impact of the Bulletin is conceived around linkages between and is not well known, but is likely to be the same theme, with articles on air air quality. important. quality and its manifestation in urban and surrounding regions, couplings Atmospheric chemical composition, Climate variability and change have with weather and climate change and weather and climate are strongly consequences for atmospheric the impact of pollutant deposition, interconnected. There is pollutant composition through the including nitrogen, on the upper emission growth in the Far East; and modification of factors that affect ocean. It opens with a message from in South America, while emissions the life cycle (sources, transport, the Secretary-General on the occasion in Europe and North America are chemical/physical transformation of World Meteorological Day, as is levelling off or being reduced. The and removal) of a pollutant in customary in the January Bulletin. economy is globalized with important the atmosphere; for example, consequences for intercontinental temperature, surface properties Between 1800 and 2007, the fraction transport of air pollution; aircraft (drought and plant cover), of the global population living in emissions (International Civil Aviation cover, precipitation (including length cities has risen from about 3 per cent Organization); and shipping emissions of dry periods) and boundary layer to 50 per cent. As a consequence, (International Maritime Organization). mixing properties. The adaptation megacities and regional hot spots Changes in farmland practices and of societies to climate change has have developed with anthropogenic in physical climate give rise to more consequences for atmospheric pollutant emissions and changes in biomass burning and forest fires. composition; for example, through land use that have large environmental The transport of air pollution across changes in the emissions from implications both in the regional national, regional and continental energy consumption as the hot spots themselves and on a boundaries is an important aspect energy production system moves larger scale. Air pollution in densely of the global cycling of air pollution, towards more extensive inclusion populated areas affects human including the impact in the Arctic and of renewable energies, including health in important ways throughout on adjacent seas. biofuels. WMO has a particular the world. The forecasting of air responsibility and proven ability to pollution in urban areas is a service Air pollution and climate change lead in the technical analysis of how required to allow the population to interact both ways. The United Nations climate variability and change and take precautions on a daily basis Framework Convention on Climate air pollution interact both ways on and to identify policy measures to Change focuses on the climate change a regional basis and in combination reduce emissions so that pollution effect of long-lived greenhouse gases. on a global basis, as these are issues target levels can be met. Through Aerosols (directly and indirectly) and of immediate concern affecting the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) tropospheric ozone, exert regional societies throughout the world to programme and its Urban Research radiative forcing on climate which is an extent that is not well known but and Meteorology Experiment (GURME) expected to modify the distribution could be significant (air pollution project and the World Weather of synoptic weather patterns and events, floods, droughts, water Research Programme (WWRP) the distribution of weather elements supply, food supply, etc).

 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Just as with climate, air pollutants The atmospheric component of the stake of relevance to WMO are the can affect weather. There is growing biogeochemical cycle of reactive quality of the water supply and the awareness that, by realistically nitrogen, including its relation to the link between the reactive nitrogen including aerosols and ozone in sequestration of carbon in ecosystems cycle and air pollution and climate weather forecast models, there will is not well known. Reactive nitrogen change. be a better chance of improving the cascades through environmental accuracy of weather forecasts. At compartments with approximately Øystein Hov, the same time, air-quality forecasts 165 megatonnes of reactive nitrogen Chair, Joint Scientific Committee on Environmental Pollution and are being produced, using the best produced each year, of which about , meteorological forecast systems in 75 per cent is related in some way WMO Commission for the world; namely those maintained to agriculture and 25 per cent to the Atmospheric Sciences by the operational weather prediction combustion of fossil fuels and the centres. industrial use of nitrogen. Issues at

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 |  Weather, climate and the air we Breathe

www.wmo.int  | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Weather, climate and the air we breathe Message by Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO, Titleon the occasion of World Meteorological Day 2009

Every year, the World Meteorological are struggling to attain the United Organization (WMO) and the Nations Millennium Development international meteorological Goals, especially in terms of health, community celebrate World food, water security and poverty Meteorological Day, commemorating alleviation, as well as to increase the coming into force of the WMO their effectiveness in preventing Convention on 23 March 1950, and mitigating natural disasters, precisely 30 days after the date of which 90 per cent are directly of deposit of the 30th instrument related to weather, climate and water of ratification or accession by hazards and thereby fall within WMO’s Members. From that day on, WMO mandate. Moreover, scientists and assumed the responsibilities of the medical professionals are increasingly former International Meteorological aware of the critical linkages between Organization (IMO), which had been weather, climate, the composition of Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General established by First International the air we breathe and their effects Meteorological Congress (Vienna, on human health. considered by many as the “father September 1873) to facilitate of medicine”, rejected superstition international collaboration in For many centuries, humans managed in favour of scientific observation, meteorology, including coordinated reasonably well to adapt to the impacts classified diseases and established observations and standardized of weather and climate by adjusting sets of moral and professional instruments. shelter, food production, energy standards still held valid today. In provision and lifestyles in harmony particular, his 5th century BC work One year after this restructuring, in with climatic and environmental “On airs, waters and places” considers 1951, WMO became a specialized conditions. However, over the the effects of climate, water supply agency of the United Nations last decades, population growth, and regions on human health and system. Today, with a much larger increased energy usage and industrial compares the geophysical conditions membership that comprises 188 development have contributed to the of life in Europe and Asia. At the time countries and territories, WMO has emission of gases and particles that of Hippocrates, it was generally expanded its mandate to include can, and do, affect human health. accepted that there were just four water and environmental issues. Thus, asthma, heart disease, lung elements: earth, air, fire and water cancer and many other medical with their corresponding qualities of Since it has become traditional conditions have been exacerbated, coldness, dryness, heat and wetness. to focus the annual celebration of or even caused, by declining air If these were present in the human World Meteorological Day around a quality. In addition, air pollution body in the right amounts and at relevant theme, the 59th session of impinges on the global economy, food the right places, then good health the WMO Executive Council decided and water security and sustainable resulted, but if the equilibrium was in May 2007 that the theme in 2009 development, by damaging plants, destroyed, then so too was health. would be “Weather, climate and crops and ecosystems. Today, we know that trace gases and the air we breathe”. Such a theme particles in the air have a significant is particularly appropriate at a time It is interesting to recall that impact on climate, weather and air when communities around the globe Hippocrates (c. 460–377 BC), quality. www.wmo.int WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 |  Meteorologists, climatologists and Europe Convention on Long Range degrees of incidence on the transport atmospheric chemists are currently Transboundary Air Pollution (1979), and permanence of atmospheric contributing to the mitigation of the the Vienna Convention on Protection pollutants. Urban heat can trap impacts of weather, climate and of the Ozone Layer (1985) and the pollutants, whilst and tend the quality of the air we breathe by United Nations Framework Convention to wash them from the atmosphere working together to provide medical on Climate Change (1994). Today, into the ground and oceans. Scientists professionals and environmental WMO continues to support these can thus use meteorological models to scientists with predictions and vital international mechanisms for advantage in evaluating and predicting analyses of the atmospheric global action. air-pollution patterns. Timely, relevant distribution, concentration and and accurate air-quality predictions transport of gases and particles in Many of the air-pollutant by-products therefore contribute to protecting the atmosphere. of the industrial revolution are also lives and property and complement responsible for other changes that the more traditional meteorological As early as the 1950s, WMO was we currently perceive in our climate, forecasts. pioneering the coordination of that are outside the range of natural atmospheric composition observations variability that we had come to expect While the development of regional and analyses. Information on from astronomic and geophysical air-quality forecasts has considerably greenhouse gases, aerosols and ozone, effects alone. The WMO co-sponsored improved over the last 30 years, as well as the classic meteorological Intergovernmental Panel on Climate delivering them to local communities and hydrological observables is now Change (IPCC) released its Fourth in a timely fashion is often still a acquired regularly, using global Assessment Report and received challenge. Yet air- quality forecasts networks of surface-based in situ and the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize in are being issued by an ever-increasing remote-sensing stations, balloon- 2007. Its conclusions are that climate number of NMHSs, many of which borne sondes, aircraft and satellites. change is unequivocal and very likely also provide a wide variety of locally This has contributed to understanding due to the increased anthropogenic appropriate, user-friendly, air-quality the changing chemical composition emissions of greenhouse gases. indices and advisories, such as of the atmosphere and has formed The IPCC has further anticipated an colour-coded schemes. Since the the scientific basis for our present increase in the frequency and intensity way in which each region issues its knowledge of the effects of weather of floods, droughts and other weather advisories varies considerably, WMO and climate on air quality, as well the and climate extremes as a result of facilitates training to maximize the reciprocal impacts of air constituents a warming climate, in particular heat effectiveness of air-quality products on our weather and climate. waves, which can have adverse effects and their societal benefits. on human health, exacerbate pollution Numerous examples of this events and spark wildfires. Never before have these products groundbreaking WMO activity can been so necessary. The World Health be traced back to scientific studies, Wind, rain, snow, sunlight and Organization (WHO) has estimated an launched in the context of the temperature can have various average of 2 million premature deaths International Polar and Geophysical Years, through the work of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO Members and in collaboration with other international organizations. In this respect, WMO has been actively involved in international efforts to assess our evolving atmosphere in terms of air pollutants such as ground- level ozone, smog, particulate matter, sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide, most of which have directly resulted from the industrial, urban and vehicular combustion of fossil fuels. WMO was a founding organization in the establishment of three major international conventions related to atmospheric composition: the United Nations Economic Commission for

 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 every year on account of air pollution. Even relatively low concentrations A folder, a brochure (WMO-No. 1035) of ozone, particles and related and a poster are being produced for pollutants can have pervasive effects World Meteorological Day 2009 on the on respiratory and heart conditions, theme “Weather, climate and the air we particularly in developing nations, breathe”. so air-quality forecasts offer vital early warning capabilities and help A World Meteorological Day 2009 Website to mitigate the dangers associated will be accessable via the WMO homepage with atmospheric pollutants. (http://www.wmo.int/wmd/), which will contain, initially, the brochure and the As megacities grow and spread, poster (in pdf format) and the Secretary- urban pollution is affecting more and General’s message. Other items will be more people throughout the world. added as they become available. About half the global population lives in large cities, many of which lack any form of air-quality monitoring, especially in developing countries. local climate. Addressing the specific Through its air-quality-related Therefore, mobilizing resources and challenges of sand- and duststorms is programmes, WMO and the NMHSs developing appropriate policies to a major objective of the WMO Sand of its Members strive to increase monitor and address air pollution and Dust Warning, Assessment awareness of the close relation in these countries is an additional and Advisory System, which facilitates between weather, climate and the and mounting challenge. The WMO development of daily sand- and air we breathe by providing the most Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) duststorm forecasts and their transfer relevant and authoritative information and the World Weather Research to global operational centres, as well to decision-makers and the public. This Programme are actively expanding the as research and assessments of sand- is a collaborative effort that requires suite of air-quality services currently and duststorm impacts. Several WMO the cooperation of all communities available through the NMHSs of WMO Members and partner organizations and sectors and its significance will Members. A number of projects have are currently engaged in the research be reflected this year in the context already been launched in several and forecasting of these hazardous of World Climate Conference-3 (WCC- countries to improve air-pollution phenomena, which especially impact 3), which will be held in Geneva from forecasting and prevention of the northern Africa, Asia and North 31 August to 4 September. associated impacts. America. In the course of this vital effort, the Besides coordinating air-quality In addition, the NMHSs of WMO NMHSs will continue to provide the forecasting, WMO promotes air- Members and some of WMO’s partner main thrust in protecting human pollution research. Particles in organizations have a key role in the health and the environment. I am suspension—or aerosols—are monitoring of, and the response confident that the theme of World critical in determining the absorption to, environmental emergencies. Meteorological Day 2009 will or reflection of heat by the Earth’s During such an emergency, in contribute to further engage all WMO surface, and atmosphere, which dangerous substances may Members and partners at the highest as well as the formation of these be released, such as an industrial level and I wish to congratulate them clouds and precipitation. Although chemical spill, a volcanic eruption, wholeheartedly on this occasion. rain washes most aerosols from an aerial vector-borne disease or a the lower atmosphere within days, nuclear plant accident, meteorologists some particles may persist for longer can help to predict their subsequent periods in the drier air masses and dispersion and propagation. In this the upper atmosphere with varied respect, WMO’s Emergency Response effects. Accordingly, aerosol studies Activities programme facilitates have become a major research area numerical modelling of airborne and will be a principal component of contaminants by a number of WMO next-generation climate- and weather- Regional Specialized Meteorological prediction models. Centres, in close collaboration with WHO, the International Atomic Air quality is also critical in terms of Energy Agency, the International sand and dust content, which reduces Civil Aviation Organization and other visibility, damages crops and affects partners.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 |  World Climate Conference-3 Climate prediction and informationTitle for decision-making

Geneva, Switzerland 31 August – 4 September 2009 Geneva International Conference Centre

Climate provides societies with The First Climate Conference resulted in the development of opportunities, as well as risks. Over (1979) helped establish institutions the UN Framework Convention on the decades, WMO has enhanced such as the WMO World Climate Climate Change in 1992. It also led capacities in meteorology, hydrology Programme; the World Climate to the establishment of the Global and related geosciences to provide Research Programme (co-sponsored Climate Observing System and to services that enable humankind to by WMO, the International Council for recommendations for future activities cope with climate conditions. Science and the Intergovernmental of the World Climate Programme. Oceanographic Commission of the The systems and standards developed United Nations Educational, Scientific WCC-3 is building on our resulting by WMO facilitate the gathering, and Cultural Organization) and the improved understanding of the processing and sharing of climate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate system and advances in the observations to provide services for Change ((IPCC) co-sponsored by WMO science of climate prediction and protecting life and property and to and the United Nations Environment information that can contribute to spur socio-economic development. Programme), which won the Nobel enhancing the well-being of society. Through the first and second world Peace Prize in 2007. It will focus on establishing services climate conferences, WMO and that enable decision-makers to better partners rallied the world to address The Second World Climate Conference manage the climate opportunities and climate issues related to the science (1990) called for the establishment risks associated with extreme climate and policies needed to better of a climate convention, adding conditions and allow communities understand and mitigate the effects momentum to international efforts to improve their ability to adapt to of climate change. to address climate change. This long-term climate change.

Sponsored by:

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Better climate information for a better future

http://www.wmo.int/pages/world_climate_conference/

The enormous amount of data gathered Adequate monitoring of the climate variability and change at regional and and archived by WMO, together system enables timely detection of sectoral levels. with its global data-processing and transboundary hazardous climate telecommunication systems, is a systems. The world must come WCC-3 is also expected to provide resource that can help significantly to together to improve climate prediction direction to address climate-related develop climate services and products. and information services that will risks, such as droughts, floods, These include maps of potential risks significantly contribute to the United extreme cold, heatwaves, famine and opportunities, return periods for Nations Millennium Development and outbreaks of certain diseases, potential risks and opportunities, Goals, the United Nations Framework which, as well as threatening lives, potentials for renewable energy Convention on Climate Change Bali affect health and the availability of sources, urban management, disease Action Plan and the Hyogo Framework essential needs such as food, water outbreak potentials and accurate Action on disaster risk reduction. and energy. climate predictions. WCC-3 will establish an international We encourage wide publicity for, Global, regional and national framework to develop climate services and participation in, the Conference climate prediction centres have which will bridge the gap between to make it a success. Please visit the skills to produce useful climate IPCC assessment reports and the our Website (see above) for the predictions and information. These services required to adapt to climate programme and other information. skills, however, vary from region to region and country to country. The capacities of developing countries and Least Developed Countries need to be strengthened to enable them to produce accurate and useful products and services.

The needs of different societies have to be well understood and integrated in the generation of products and services. Climate monitoring and prediction must be improved and appropriate policies developed. These requirements cannot be achieved by individual countries alone. The world is served by one climate system that redistributes heat, energy and other atmospheric and oceanic constituents; worldwide cooperation is therefore

indispensable. QUINET

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 |  Implications of climate change forTitle air quality by Guy P. Brasseur*

Introduction particles absorb a significant amount expected changes in temperature and of shortwave solar radiation and precipitation resulting from human Changes in the chemical compo­ affect the flux of terrestrial longwave enterprise could affect air quality in sition of the atmosphere, which radiation. the future. have resulted from massive industrial­ ization, intensive agriculture and In addition, aerosols provide the urbanization, as well as road, maritime condensation nuclei that facilitate Impact of climate and air traffic, have led directly and the formation of cloud droplets. Their change on the chemical indirectly to enhanced radiative presence in the atmosphere leads to composition of the forcing with, as a result, future noticeable changes in the cloud albedo changes in the Earth’s temperatures and lifetime with indirect effects on background atmosphere and hydrological cycles. the Earth’s climate. The presence of large amounts of aerosols may Climate models (IPCC, 2007) have been The largest contribution to radiative also affect the vertical stability of the used to project the evolution of the forcing is caused by increasing atmosphere and, when deposited on mean temperature and precipitation atmospheric concentrations of the surface, particles may reduce the rate during the coming centuries. carbon dioxide, a product of fossil albedo of snow, again with impacts When a “business-as-usual” scenario fuel combustion. The emissions of on climate. is adopted for the simulations, the other greenhouse gases, including projected increase in the global methane and nitrous oxide, have These processes are quite difficult surface mean temperature at the end also increased as a result of human to quantify, since they involve com­ of the 21st century is 2.8°C, with an activities. Ozone is a reactive gas that plex microphysical and chemical average warming of 3.5°C on land and is not only important in protecting us processes. The climate impact of of as much as 7°C in the Arctic. These from harmful ultraviolet radiation but chemical compounds, and specifically changes, which are expected to occur is also a greenhouse gas and, at high of air pollution, is therefore difficult unless drastic measures are adopted smog-level concentrations, harmful to to estimate. Even more difficult to to reduce emissions of greenhouse human health and vegetation. Finally, assess is the impact of climate change gases, will have substantial effects the release into the atmosphere of on the chemical composition and, on the coupled physical-chemical- sulphur dioxide, a precursor of sul­ specifically, on air quality. biological-hydrological system that phate aerosol particles, of black drives the evolution of the planet on carbon and organic particles has In this article, we briefly review timescales of decades to centuries. also affected radiative transfer in the processes that determine the the atmosphere with impacts on the interactions of the climate system As highlighted by Figure 1, the inter­ climate system. Submicron sulphate and the chemical composition actions of continental and oceanic aerosol particles tend to scatter a of the atmosphere at different ecosystems, the hydrological, fraction of the incoming solar radiation scales. In particular, we examine biogeochemical, photochemical, back to space, while black carbon the different processes by which microphysical and climate systems are complex, so that understanding of them requires laboratory investi­ * National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA gations, observations and modelling.

10 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Climate

Direct and indirect effects/ feedbacks on natural sources Greenhouse effect

Heat island effect Human emissions Aerosols Greenhouse gases

Fires: soot CH4, O3, Oxidants: Mineral dust N2O, CFC OH, H2O2 Human CO emissions HO2, O3 2 N deposition (Gas-phase) O3, UV radiation Chemistry Ecosystems Biogenic emissions CH4, DMS, VOC’s Dry deposition stomatal conductance

Human Land-use Land Damming/ change, fires emissions irrigation/ water/cities emissions of heat

Figure 1 — Schematic representation of the interactions of climate, atmospheric reactive gases, greenhouse gases, aerosols, ecosystems and the water system (from Cox, personal communication)

Specifically, the development of • Changes in atmospheric therefore removed from the comprehensive monitoring systems, affect the chemical production atmosphere; data-assimilation tools and predictive and destruction of chemical models that integrate a diverse set species and, specifically, the loss • Changes in surface temperature of data into a coherent framework rate of tropospheric ozone; and precipitation affect the is a priority for the international emission and deposition of research community. Humans per­ • Changes in the frequency and chemical compounds and the turb the Earth system, not only by intensity of affects surface deposition by vegetation emitting greenhouse gases but the atmospheric production of and soil; also by producing and releasing nitric oxide with direct impact reactive compounds and aerosols on the ozone budget in the upper • Changes in ocean temperature and by changing land use (e.g. troposphere; affect the atmosphere-ocean through deforestation, irrigation and exchanges of compounds such urbanization). All these anthropogenic • Changes in atmospheric cloudi­ as dimethyl sulphide, which are a changes and the resulting climate ness affect the atmospheric source of sulphate aerosols; change have the potential to modify composition by modifying the the chemical composition of the penetration of solar radiation and, • Changes in the frequency and atmosphere. hence, the photochemical activity intensity of prolonged stagnant in the atmosphere; aqueous air conditions affect the dis­ The impact of climate change on the and heterogeneous chemistry persion of pollutants and enhance atmospheric abundance of reactive associated with the presence of the frequency and intensity of gases and aerosols can occur through clouds is also modified; pollution events with severe different mechanisms: consequence for human health; • Changes in the frequency • Changes in atmospheric and intensity of precipitation • Changes in the general circulation temperature affect the rates at resulting from climate change of the atmosphere affect the long- which chemical reactions take affect the rate at which soluble range transport of pollutants from place; species are scavenged and continent to continent;

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 11 Finally, climate-generated increases in lightning frequency could produce a larger number of natural fires, especially in boreal regions with enhanced emissions of pyrogenic chemical compounds to the atmos­ phere. In each case, not only is the air quality affected, but also the radiative forcing and, hence, the climate system. Positive feedbacks between the chemical and climate systems can be identified, but their role in the overall Earth system may be overshadowed by other, more intense negative feedbacks that maintain the climate within acceptable bounds, at least for the foreseen future.

The quantification of coupling mechanisms between atmospheric chemistry and climate requires the development of complex Earth system models that take into account the • Changes in convective activity lead of the leaves. Once released in the known interactions of chemical and to changes in vertical transport in atmosphere, isoprene is oxidized, climate processes. Several groups the chemical composition of the which contributes to the formation in the world are currently using such upper troposphere; of secondary organic aerosols and, models, for example to assess the when the level of nitrogen oxides is rate of stratospheric ozone recovery • Changes in stratosphere- high, to the production of ozone. Most (after the phase-out of manufactured troposphere exchange affect the of the nitrogen oxides present in the halocarbons) under a changing abundance of chemical species, atmosphere are released as a result climate. A major expectation of these including ozone, in the upper of combustion processes. models is that they will also provide troposphere; information on the response of the Thus, climate warming is expected to troposphere, specifically of ozone and • Changes in surface wind intensity enhance the release to the atmosphere aerosols, to future climate change. over the continent modify the of biogenic hydrocarbons such as mobilization of dust particles isoprene, which will contribute to Several chemical transport models in arid regions and, therefore, the worsening of regional air quality; have been used to assess the response the aerosol burden in the additional ozone and aerosols will be of tropospheric ozone to climate troposphere; produced with impacts on health and changes during the 21st century (see, climate forcing. for example, Brasseur et al., 2006; • Changes in surface wind intensity Stevenson et al., 2006). In the study of over the ocean modify the A second example of climate- Stevenson et al., nine global models exchanges of trace gases at the atmospheric chemistry interaction is were used to assess how climate ocean-atmosphere interface, provided by emissions of nitric oxide change would affect tropospheric and affect the emission of sea- by bacteria in soils; these emissions ozone by the year 2030. Although salt particles to the atmospheric are sensitive to temperature and significant differences characterize boundary layer. soil moisture and will be affected the models, they suggest that, in by climate change. The increasing a warmer climate, ozone concen­ number of wildfire outbreaks in tration should decrease in the An example of interactions of the regions where droughts are becoming lower troposphere as the water- climate and atmospheric chemical more frequent or intense will lead vapour concentration increases, systems is provided by the action to substantially larger emissions of due to enhanced at the of isoprene, a biogenic hydrocarbon combustion products such as carbon surface. released in large quantities by vege­ monoxide, nitric oxide, soot and other tation. These emissions increase compounds, with large impacts on At the same time, ozone should considerably with the temperature regional and even global air quality. increase in the upper troposphere as

12 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 a result of enhanced ozone influx from Surface ozone (µg/m3) on 8 August 2003 the stratosphere. In spite of recent advances made from these model 56° studies, no definite conclusions on the magnitude or even the sign of 54° the ozone-climate feedback currently 360 exist. Similarly, the changes in the 52° 300 240 probability of occurrence of ozone 50° 220 episodes in response to climate 200 change remain a matter of debate. 180 47° 170 160 Coupled chemistry-climate models 46° 150 must also take into account the role 140 of aerosol particles. The problem is 44° 130 complex because, apart from the 120 42° 110 effects of sulphate aerosols, the role 100 of soot and organic aerosols must be 90 40° considered. Organic aerosols are pro­ 80 duced in large part by the oxidation 70 38° 60 of biogenic organic gases, followed 40 3 by the condensation of semi-volatile 36° Stations where O3 >180µg/m 20 oxygenated organic molecules. As 0 indicated above, a large fraction -10° -8° -6° -4° -2° 0° 2° 4° 6° 8° 10° 12° 14° 16° 18° 20° 22° of gaseous organic compounds Figure 2 — Surface ozone concentration (in μg/m3) on 8 August 2003 (during the are released by vegetation and the European heatwave of 2003) calculated by Vautard et al., 2005. Stations which report corresponding emissions are a strong ozone concentrations larger than 180 μg/m3 are indicated (from Vautard et al., 2005). function of temperature. Climate warm­ ing is therefore expected to enhance the emissions of biogenic hydro­ modification of long-range transport, temperature for this period of the carbons and, hence, will produce boundary-layer ventilation and cross- year. Excessive mortality rates of 50- additional organic aerosols. tropopause exchanges. Potential 100 per cent were reported in several changes in surface emissions and countries of Europe. In total, more Modern climate models include a deposition in response to climate than 30 000 additional deaths (15 000 simplified representation of aerosol change also need to be better in France, 5 000 in Germany, 6 000 in processes; they are far from realistic assessed. Experimental studies in Spain, 5 000 in Portugal, and 5 000 in when treating aerosol processes and, the laboratory and in the field, as well the United Kingdom) were recorded specifically, the formation of secondary as satellite and modelling studies, (Trigo et al., 2005). Crop damage, organic aerosols. Climate change will help resolve several of these out­ slides associated with tundra thawing will affect the emissions of aerosol standing questions. at high latitudes, forest fire outbreaks, precursors, in particular, biogenic etc., led to considerable damage to volatile organic compounds. Shifts the economy. in the period and intensity of climate Effects of heatwaves modes such as El Niño/Southern During this period of exceptionally Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical on regional air quality high temperatures, high levels of Pacific will affect the precipitation photochemically produced ozone regimes in different parts of the world. Heatwaves provide a way of estimating were observed, especially in the During El Niño events, in regions such how air pollution could evolve under central part of France and south- as Indonesia, where precipitation is future climate change. In this regard, western Germany. On 8 August, for suppressed and biomass burning is the heatwave that took place in western example, many stations reported intense, the amounts of particle and and central Europe in August 2003 ozone concentrations exceeding gas emissions are enhanced. constitutes an interesting test case. 180 μg/m3, which is considerably During the first two weeks of August, above air-quality standards (see Many unknowns remain in our under­ the temperature was particularly high Figure 2). It is believed that about standing of changes in global air in these regions of Europe, with daily one-third of the deaths reported quality resulting from climate change. maxima reaching between 35°C and during this period were associated They includes the potential changes 40°C in Paris, i.e. more than 10°C with health problems caused by these that could be expected from the above the climatological average excessive ozone concentrations.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 13 RCM simulations for northern Switzerland

(a) not only would the mean temperature in the country increase significantly but the standard variation of the CTRL temperature would double by the

Frequency 1961-1990 end of the 21st century (see Figure 3 and Schär et al., 2004). Thus, dry and (b) warm should become more frequent and, on average, heatwaves such as the heatwave of 2003 could SCEN occur every second year in Europe.

Frequency 2071-2100 Global models (IPCC, 2007) show that the standard deviation in temperature 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 and hence the probability of heatwave occurrence would increase in many Temperature (°C) parts of the world. As a result, more frequent ozone events would be Figure 3 — Simulation by the regional climate model of Schär et al. (2004) of the mean expected not only in the urbanized temperature and its variability in northern Switzerland for the period 1961-1990 and 2071- regions of the northern hemisphere 2100 (scenario SRES A2), respectively. The probability for the occurrence of heatwaves but also in emerging countries (e.g. increases in the future. China and Brazil) affected both by rapid industrialization and intense biomass burning. As countries in Several factors are believed to explain Portugal, for example, witnessed Europe and North America attempt the high ozone concentrations during one of its worst fire . Hodzic to reduce anthropogenic emissions of the August 2003 heatwave. First, et al. (2007) estimated that some pollutants, air pollution may become temperature increases favoured 130 kilotonnes of fine aerosol more resilient than expected because the chemical production of ozone particles (PM2.5) were emitted as a of climate change. in the troposphere. Second, low result of European fires during the atmospheric humidity reduced heatwave period, which led to an Conclusions ozone destruction, as well as the average PM2.5 ground concentration production of the hidroxil radical, of 20-200 per cent (up to 40 μg/m3) In summary, the high ozone which destroys several air pollutants, over Europe. These tiny aerosol concentrations observed in Europe including those which are ozone particles, composed mainly of during the heatwave of 2003 resulted precursors. Third, the vegetation organic matter and black carbon, can from a combination of meteorological, was affected by high temperature penetrate deep into the respiratory chemical and biological factors. It is and the lack of precipitation, which systems of humans and, therefore, likely that such events will become led to a substantial reduction in the represent a serious health hazard. more frequent in the future. A better removal by dry deposition to the Hodzic et al. (2007) also reported understanding of the links that exist Earth’s surface of ozone and other that the presence of elevated smoke between climate, ecosystems and compounds. Fourth, the emission of layers over Europe had significantly biogeochemical cycles is required, biogenic ozone precursors such as altered atmospheric radiative since the coupling between these isoprene was considerably enhanced properties: the model results different systems directly affect air under high temperature conditions. suggested a 10-30 per cent decrease quality. Increases of 60-100 per cent in in photolysis rates and an increase isoprene emissions were reported in atmospheric radiative forcing of As we consider regional, as well as (Solberg et al., 2008). Finally, a 10–35 W/m2 during the period of global, aspects of these interactions, it stable meteorological situation strong fire influence throughout a is important to address air pollution in with cloudless skies that persisted large part of Europe. an Earth system perspective. Models for two weeks created favourable of the future will have to capture conditions for the containment of Air-pollution episodes could become processes related to: pollutants in the boundary layer and more frequent and more acute under for active photochemistry. future climate change. Climate • The physical climate, including models show that the probability across-scale dynamics and In addition to these local conditions, of heatwaves occurring could microphysics; the extreme drought that occurred increase significantly during the in southern Europe during August present century. Models applied to • Atmospheric chemistry (reactive favoured the outbreak of wildfires. Switzerland suggest, for example, that gases and aerosol particles) and

14 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 biogeochemical cycles (including References Sollberg, S., Ø. Hov, A. Svøde, I.S.A.Isaksen, the carbon and nitrogen cycles); P. Codeville, H. De Backer, C. Forster, Y. Orsilini and K. Uhse, 2008: European Brasseur, G.P., M. Schultz, C. Granier, surface ozone in the extreme • Terrestrial ecosystems and M. Saunois, T. Diehl, M. Botzet, 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D07307, hydrological processes (managed E. Roechner and S. Walters, 2006: doi: 10.129/2007JD009098. and unmanaged ecosystems); Impact of climate change on the future chemical composition of the Stevenson, D.S., F.J. Dentener, and global troposphere, J. Climate, 19, M.G. Schultz et al., 2006: Multimodel 3932-3951. ensemble simulations of present- • Interactions of natural and social day and near-future tropospheric Hodzic, A., S. Madronich, B. Bohn, ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D8301, systems (energy, agriculture, S. Massie, L. Menut and C. Wiedinmyer, doi:10.1029/2005JD006338. coastal systems and other human 2007: Wildfire particulate matter in systems). Europe during summer 2003: Meso- Trigo, M.C., R. Garcia-Herrera, J. Diaz, scale modeling of smoke emissions, I.F. Trigo and M.A. Valente, 2005: transport and radiative effects, How exceptional was the early Atmos. Chem. and Phys., 7 (15), August 2003 heatwave in France?, One of the intellectual challenges 4043-4064. Geophys. Res. Let., 32, L10701, for the future is not only to better doi:10:1029/2005GL022410. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate understand the behaviour of the Change (IPCC), 2007: Climate Change Vautard, R., C. Honoré, M. Beekmann and different components of the Earth 2007—The Physical Science Basis. L. Rouil, 2005: Simulation of ozone system, but also to develop a Contribution of Working Group during the August 2003 heatwave I to the Fourth Assessment (S. and emission control scenarios, science of coupling, so that the Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, Atmos. Environ., 39, 2957–2967. fate of our planetary system will be M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor better simulated by comprehensive and H.L. Miller (Eds.)). Cambridge numerical models. University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and , NY, USA, 996 pp. Acknowledgements Schär, C., P.L. Vidale, D. Lüthi, C. Frei, C. Häberli, M.A. Liniger and Discussions with Claire Granier, Alma C. Appenzeller, 2004: The role of Hodzic, Jean-François Lamarque and increasing temperature variability Christine Wiedinmyer are gratefully in European summer heatwaves, acknowledged. Nature, 427, 332-336.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 15 The global atmosphere: greenhouse gases and Titleurban pollution By Euan Nisbet1 and Martin Manning2

Introduction ... atmospheric monitoring provides us with the most comprehensive overview that we For 50 years, since Dave Keeling started monitoring carbon dioxide have of biogeochemical changes in a rapidly at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and the South Pole, scientists have been tracking warming world. greenhouse and other trace gases in the global atmosphere. The results have revolutionized our The technological advances most comprehensive overview understanding of biogeochemistry necessary to avoid dangerous that we have of biogeochemical and demonstrated that human acti­ atmospheric changes come at a cost changes in a rapidly warming world. vities affect climate change and air but, increasingly, the evidence is This is no time to take atmospheric quality. Precise measurements of that the cost of doing nothing would monitoring for granted. trace-gas concentrations, pioneered be much larger. Air-quality impacts by Dave Keeling, have led from and those of climate change run exciting scientific inquiry to arguably potentially into trillions of dollars Which greenhouse the most serious socio-economic and (Burtraw et al., 2003; Metz et al., 2007; gases are monitored political challenges that humankind Sitch et al., 2007). Ironically, despite and where? has ever faced. the international attention given to global change, the precise and Greenhouse gases need to be It has only been through precise and strategic monitoring of atmospheric monitored for many reasons. First, calibrated measurements of trace trace gases—which identified the this is fundamental science: the gases at multiple locations that we problem in the first place—remains breathing of the Earth. Keeling (1960), have been able to construct reliable markedly underfunded (Nisbet, in his initial report, documented budgets for the sources and sinks 2007). Yet this Cinderella science the planetary biosphere’s seasonal of both greenhouse gases and the still provides the only way of telling cycle of growth and decay and pollutants that control air quality. whether mitigation is working. showed the dominant effect of the Anthropogenic effects on the northern hemisphere land masses atmosphere have become clearly If we could take atmospheric change over the south. Secondly, and more identified. At the same time, we have for granted, a minimalist approach worryingly, monitoring has tracked developed some understanding of to monitoring might be justified. the steady rise in carbon dioxide. the scale of damage that can be The ozone hole, however, showed Measurement began in Hawaii in caused by unfettered atmospheric that atmospheric chemistry is March 1958, recording 316 parts per changes. This is now causing a capable of producing surprises. million (ppm) of carbon dioxide. By global rethink of the direction and What is more: atmospheric March 2007, the comparable value design of economic activity. monitoring provides us with the was 384 ppm. The Mauna Loa curve, simple and unambiguous, changed 1 Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, United Kingdom the way we look at the world and at 2 Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand our own actions.

16 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Greenhouse emissions are now self- local (e.g. factory), regional and At local and regional scales many declared by many emitting nations. national and continental. short-lived pollutants, such as volatile They are estimated from economic organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen and statistical data, such as tonnes The main atmospheric trace oxide (NOx) and particulates, are of fossil fuel burned, landfill leaks or constituents monitored at global monitored along with species resulting estimates of methane outbreathings scales are: from their chemical reactions, such by cows (which can vary significantly as ozone. across national borders). There are • The core Kyoto gases carbon paper audits of the data but, despite d i o x i d e ( C O 2 ) , m e t h a n e Not all these gases are monitored the potential for errors in the data- (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2O), equally and the spatial and temporal gathering process, there is as yet hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), coverage of available data varies no independent and comprehensive perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and enormously. But, in all cases, verification of emissions. This is a sulphur hexafluoride (SF6); restricted coverage or the sporadic major flaw in the Kyoto process, as nature of measurement programmes emissions become associated with • Ozone-depleting substances such that are not funded continuously is actual financial costs or benefits. as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) limiting our ability to identify changes and hydrochlorofluorocarbons of either natural or human origin. Today, global monitoring of (HCFCs) controlled under the Verification of the effects of policy on greenhouse gases and related Montreal Protocol; emissions control has been identified species, done for the public good as a potential goal of national and by many nations, is beginning to • The indirect greenhouse gases international provide an independent, scientific hydrogen (H2) (likely to grow programmes for many years, but has approach to estimate greenhouse- sharply in a hydrogen economy) yet to be achieved in a meaningful gas budgets. At present, the data and carbon monoxide (CO) way. are only adequate to provide global (involved in methane chemistry and very broad regional insights and air quality); Monitoring is carried out by national or to quantify plumes from large, and multinational groups, some 13 localized sources. In future, under • Isotopic carbon dioxide ( CO2), governmental, others linked to 13 a Kyoto follow-up treaty, we should isotopic methane ( CH4) and universities. The most extensive be doing much more to audit ozone (O2) (to constrain emission global monitoring programme is compliance directly at all levels— sources and budgets of CO2). run by the US National Oceanic and

Figure 1 — Global carbon dioxide monitoring sites in November 2008 (courtesy A.C. Manning). Stations shown are from programmes run by NOAA (USA), Scripps (USA), Princeton (USA), Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization (Australia), National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (New Zealand), National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan), the South Africa Weather Service and CarboEurope-IP (EU, including French RAMCES programme).

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 17 Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the global collaboration and most in trace-gas concentrations to the which also provides most calibration budget modelling would be almost distribution of the sources and sinks standards. NOAA’s carbon dioxide worthless. Approximately 25 national that cause them (Rayner and O’Brien, work is closely coordinated with programmes participate in the work 2001). However, this approach has national programmes in Australia, (the number is growing). The work yet to be proven. In the near future, Canada, China, Japan, New Zealand, has global scope, with NOAA and we are clearly reliant on the ground- South Africa and many other nations. RAMCES, in particular, making based network. Moreover, in the The notable developed-nation strategic use of oceanic islands. longer term, we will continue to need exception is the United Kingdom. However, there are major gaps in the ground truth supplied by surface the coverage (Figure 1), especially and upward-looking total column European Union programmes such in the . measurements. as Carbo-Europe and GEOmon make major contributions, coordinating Satellite monitoring of trace gases Carbon dioxide varies across the national efforts such as the French is still at a preliminary stage but planet. Keeling showed it is well RAMCES (Réseau Atmosphérique should provide a valuable broader mixed on a multi-year timescale, de Mesure des Composés à Effet picture. Satellite systems, such as the but there are major seasonal and de Serre) network, and helping European Union’s Envisat’s Sciamachy latitudinal variations. Figure 2 shows with measurements in India and (Scanning Imaging Absorption the “carbon rug” or “flying carpet”— Africa. However, many monitoring Spectrometer for Atmospheric carbon dioxide in the marine boundary programmes are poorly funded or Chartography) instrument use the layer by time and latitude. This is a liable to severe cut-back (as has near infrared to measure the total marvellous record of the breathing happened to world-class work in amount of carbon dioxide and of our planetary biosphere and the Australia and Canada and to European methane in the atmospheric column. increment of human activity. The Union methane monitoring). The major Soon, the US National Aeronautics fine topography of global carbon gaps in the monitoring network are in and Space Administration’s dioxide variation bears comparison the tropics, especially in India (where Orbiting Carbon Observatory and with the global variation in absolute there is some French monitoring), the greenhouse- gases observing temperature. At the same moment Arabia, tropical Africa and Brazil (from satellite IBUKI (GOSAT) of the Japan in a , ground-level where shipment of flask samples is Aerospace Exploration Agency will carbon dioxide in a large industrialized difficult). provide additional coverage over region may exceed 450 ppm, the value much of the world. In principle, the in a budding forest one thousand WMO coordinates global measure­ near-global coverage provided by kilometres away may be 100 ppm ments and analysis, for instance remote-sensing techniques may lower. Contrast this with a July by supporting (since 1975) an lead to a significant improvement in temperature in the Sahara of 330K international biennial meeting of our ability to relate the fingerprints and 230K at the South Pole. There a carbon dioxide and trace-gas measurement experts panel. Through its Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW)

programme, WMO is responsible for ) –1 supporting international partners that maintain the key components of the GAW global carbon dioxide and

methane monitoring network that is mol mol

part of the Global Climate Observing µ ( System. A high level of engagement 2 of the international carbon cycle CO research community has enabled agreement on analytical standards and methodologies. This community Latitude assists WMO in issuing an annual greenhouse-gas bulletin describing Year consensus on global greenhouse- gas composition and trends. Import­ antly, GAW measurement expert groups initiate vital round-robin Figure 2 — Global average distribution of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the marine intercomparison studies, unloved by background, by time and latitude (from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory funding agencies but without which cooperative air sampling network (www.esrl.noaa.gov))

18 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycle; or watching the wider impacts of volcanic events.

In the USA, NOAA monitors carbon dioxide using continuous observations from tall towers and sampling by small aircraft. The data give regional gradients in space and time, fed into a data- assimilation carbon cycle modelling system called Carbon Tracker. From this, Peters et al. (2007) estimated the net carbon dioxide exchanges between the ground and the atmosphere from 2000 to 2005. They found that the North American land biosphere is a major carbon sink, absorbing some Figure 3 — Global averages of the concentrations of the major, well-mixed, long-lived 0.65 x 1 015 grams of carbon per year greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 from the (note: the variability is large, from 0.4 to NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory cooperative air sampling network since 1978 1.01 x 1 015 g/yr). This partly offsets (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/) the fossil-fuel emissions, estimated as 1.8 x 1 015 g/yr. In Europe, similar tall tower monitoring is under way as part are large seasonal cycles, and a major are not yet known and, as long as of Carbo-Europe’s Chiotto programme hemispheric gradient. this remains the case, that is a telling and an emerging Integrated Carbon indictment of our ability to diagnose Observing System. The global greenhouse atmospheric change. Formerly, the European Union supported methane Stephens et al. (2007) used vertical Figure 3 shows the evolution of isotopic monitoring of Arctic methane, profiles from aircraft measurements the global averages of the major which could, in principle, distinguish to infer that northern uptakes were greenhouse gases since 1978, as source inputs. This was terminated around 1.5 x 1 015 g/yr, less than measured by the US NOAA Earth and isotopic work in the Arctic now previously estimated, and that System Research Laboratory coop­ largely depends on US and national net tropical emissions were small erative air-sampling network. For programmes. Finally, in Figure 3, the (0.1 x 1 015 g/yr), implying that strong carbon dioxide, the rise seems chlorofluorocarbons show encour­ tropical uptakes largely balanced inexorable, particularly in the past aging declines, reflecting the success the major emissions from tropical decade. Note the change in slope of the Montreal Protocol process. forest clearing and grass fires. Piao in the time of slower growth and This outcome is a hopeful pointer et al. (2008) also sounded a warning El Niño in the early 1990s. Nitrous for follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol. note, using both NOAA observational oxide is also increasing steadily: this records and modelling to find gas, released in nylon manufacture that warming may have a and by agriculture, may be a very What is the point significant impact on carbon dioxide cost-effective target for reduction budgets. measures. of measuring greenhouse gases? Isotopic monitoring is particularly Methane, even more than nitrous powerful. Because emissions from oxide, is an attractive first target Regional studies different sources typically have for reduction efforts as many of its different isotopic ratios, source emissions, such as those from landfills Studying the detailed distribution of strengths can be estimated. For and gas pipes, are economically carbon dioxide as revealed by the example, if blowing from a 13 wasteful as well as environmentally monitoring network addresses a coalfield are enriched in CH4, then damaging. The methane budget wide variety of scientific questions. that increment can be related to the reached near-equilibrium in the Examples include quantifying sinks of total methane they release. Using early 1990s but methane may now carbon dioxide on land versus ocean; wind back-trajectory analysis, such be increasing again, especially in the assessing the impacts of the 2003 source inferences can be made at Arctic (unpublished NOAA results and European heatwave on atmospheric great distances: methane from Rigby and Prinn, 2008). The causes carbon dioxide; studying the impact Canadian fires can be “smelled” in

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 19 Ireland; African methane reaches New good proxy for overall air quality, understood, the expected growth Zealand. The isotopes eventually mix for Egham, south-west of London, of megacities is likely to raise new almost as coloured streamers do in United Kingdom. Days with very high issues, particularly as we release smoke trails. carbon monoxide are now rare. This new synthetic gas species to the improvement has occurred since 1997 atmosphere at a challenging rate Levin et al. (2007) used radiogenic 14C as a consequence of reductions in car and before we understand the full observations at regional stations in emissions brought about by catalytic environmental consequences of Germany, compared with measure­ exhaust converters, a tax regime that doing so. What is perhaps of even ment in the free troposphere at made unleaded fuel cheaper than more concern is that we still know Jungfraujoch, Swiss Alps, to estimate leaded (thereby reducing catalyst little about the broad background of regional carbon dioxide surpluses poisoning) and a more rigorous annual atmospheric chemistry changes that over background. inspection regime. London’s air is now may be occurring on larger scales. frequently sparkling. London is not For example, there is evidence that More generally, Bakwin et al. (2004) alone: most European and US cities fluctuations in the concentration of showed that, by using carbon dioxide have similar improvements. Though the dominant oxidizing species, the measurements, it is possible to assess very significant health risks remain, hidroxil (OH) radical, can be quite carbon dioxide emissions on a regional the overall picture is much brighter large (Manning et al., 2005) and it scale (of the order of one million than a decade ago. is revealing that much of what we square kilometres, provided the infer about hidroxil comes from monitoring network is adequate). Urban air quality in many cities in atmospheric chemistry models rather With relatively inexpensive modern newly industrializing countries, than from observations (Jöckel et al., instruments and some supporting especially China and India, remains 2003; Spivakovsky et al., 2000). aircraft sampling, it should be possible extremely poor. Here, too, however, to quantify emissions by quantity and improvements are beginning to take Ironically, Chinese and Indian aerosol by isotopic source. The increase in place. Beijing’s air quality is illus­ pollution acts on a global scale as effort required is not large, compared trative: the heroic efforts to improve a negative greenhouse forcing. to existing programmes. In principle, conditions for the 2008 Olympics led to Rightly, these nations will cleanse it should be possible directly to audit public desire for better air nationally. their air. In so doing, they ameliorate compliance with any future Kyoto-like In India, too, public pressure may local problems but accelerate global agreement, at least in major industrial bring about improvements. North warming. Moreover, catalytic exhaust regions such as China, Europe, India American and European experience, converters add weight to a car, and the USA. both recently with air quality and in and inefficiency. The overall fuel the decade previously with acid rain, consumption of vehicles in western Urban air impacts show that, with determined effort, nations is thus higher than it would be significant betterment of air quality if air were dirtier. Local environmental In the developed world, urban air can take place within a decade. improvement can mean a transient quality has improved markedly over increase in global warming. the past decade. Figure 4 shows While local air quality around major mean monthly carbon monoxide, a urban centres is reasonably well Conclusion Mean monthly CO concentrations 1999-2008 700 With the international support of 600 WMO, atmospheric greenhouse- 500 gas monitoring and analysis have 400 been developed in a global integrated 300 system reaching 50 years back to the 200 pioneering measurements of Dave

100 Keeling on Mauna Loa Hawaii and the

Carbon concentration 0 South Pole. The enormous scientific Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 and socio-economic implications of this work have too often been taken Figure 4 — 10-year record for carbon monoxide, Egham, west London. Mean monthly for granted. The global increase in carbon mixing ratios are shown. The detailed record for methane also shows a sharp greenhouse warming and the hot decrease in severe pollution events since 1997. From 2006 to 2008, many days with spots of degraded air quality are westerly winds had carbon not far above contemporary (seasonal) Atlantic background reasonably well understood. Now, levels and methane close to simultaneous measurements at Mace Head, western Ireland the need is for more comprehensive (unpublished preliminary data, Royal Holloway Group: note that the line is indicative and more detailed (and relatively only). inexpensive) monitoring designed

20 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 to support relevant modelling in Manning, M.R., D.C. Lowe, R.C. Moss, Geophysical Research Letters (in order to determine trace-gas budgets G.E. Bodeker and W. Allan, 2005: press). Short term variations in the oxidizing regionally and locally. This will enable power of the atmosphere. Nature, Sitch, S., P.M. Cox, W.J. Collins and an independent audit of emissions, 436: 1001-1004. C. Huntingford, 2007: Indirect by source, by location and by time. radiative forcing of climate change Metz, B. O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, through ozone effects on the land- An effective carbon tracking tool is R. Dave and L.A. Meyer (Eds.), 2007: carbon sink. Nature, 448: 791-794. now possible. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to Spivakovsky, C.M., J.A. Logan, the Fourth Assessment Report of the S.A. Montzka, Y.J. Balkanski, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate M. Foreman-Fowler, D.B.A. Jones, Change. Cambridge University L.W. Horowitz, A.C. Fusco, References Press. C.A.M. Brenninkmeijer, M.J Prather, S.C. Wofsy and M.B. McElroy, 2000: Nisbet, E.G., 2007: Cinderella science. Three-dimensional climatological Bakwin, P.S., K.J. Davis, C., Yi, J.W. Munger, Nature, 450, 789-790. distribution of tropospheric OH: L. Haszpra and Z. Barcza, 2004: Update and evaluation. Journal Regional carbon fluxes from mixing Pataki, D.E., D.R. Bowling, J.R. Ehleringer of Geophysical Research 105(D7), ratio data. Tellus, 56B, 301-11. and J.M. Zobitz, 2006: High resolution 8931-8980. atmospheric monitoring of urban Burtraw, D., A. Krupnick, K. Palmer, carbon dioxide. Geophysical Stephens, B.B. and 21 others, 2007: Weak A. Paul, M. Toman and C. Bloyd, 2003: Research Letters, 33, L03813, 5 pp. northern and strong tropical land Ancillary benefits of reduced air carbon uptake from vertical profiles Piao, S. and 15 others, 2008: Net pollution in the US from moderate of atmospheric CO2. Science 316, greenhouse gas mitigation policies carbon dioxide losses of northern 1732-1735. in the electricity sector. Journal ecosystems in response to autumn of Environmental Economics and warming. Nature, 451, 49-53. Management, 45, 650-673. Peters, W. and 15 others, 2007: An Jöckel, P., C.A.M. Brenninkmeijer, atmospheric perspective on North P.J. Crutzen, 2003: A discussion on American carbon dioxide exchange: the determination of atmospheric Carbon Tracker. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. OH and its trends. Atmospheric USA, 48, 18925-18930. Chemistry and Physics, 3, 107-118. Rayner, P.J., D.M. O’Brien, 2001: The

Levin, I., S. Hammer, B. Kromer and utility of remotely sensed CO2 F. Meinhardt, 2007: Radiocarbon concentration data in surface source observations in atmospheric inversions. Geophysical Research Letters 28(1): 175-. CO2: determining fossil fuel CO2 over Europe using Jungfraujoch observations as background. Science Rigby, M. and 15 others, 2008: Renewed of the Total Environment, 391, 211-6. growth of atmospheric methane.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 21 Possible influences of air pollution, dust- and sandstorms on the Indian monsoon Titleby William K.M. Lau1, Kyu-Myong Kim2, Christina N. Hsu1 and Brent N. Holben3

Introduction processes (indirect effect). Based aloft and melting below implies on their optical properties, aerosols greater upward heat transport in In Asian monsoon countries, such can be classified into two types: polluted clouds and invigorate deep as China and India, human health those that absorb solar radiation, convection (Rosenfeld et al., 2008). and safety problems caused by air and those that do not. Both types of In this way, aerosols may lead to pollution are becoming increasingly aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce increased local convection. Hence, serious, due to the increased loading the amount of solar radiation from depending on the ambient large- of atmospheric pollutants from reaching the Earth’s surface, causing scale conditions and dynamical waste gas emissions and from rising it to cool. The surface cooling feedback processes, aerosols’ effect energy demand associated with increases atmospheric stability and on precipitation can be positive, the rapid pace of industrialization reduces convection potential. negative or mixed. and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon Absorbing aerosols, however, in In the Asian monsoon and adjacent rain associated with flash floods or addition to cooling the surface, can regions, the aerosol forcing and prolonged drought, has caused major heat the atmosphere. The heating responses of the water cycle are loss of human life and damage to of the atmosphere may reduce the even more complex. Both direct and crops and property with devastating amount of low clouds by increased indirect effects may take place locally societal impacts. Historically, air- evaporation in cloud drops. The and simultaneously, interacting with pollution and monsoon research heating, however, may induce each other. In addition to local effects, are treated as separate problems. rising motion, enhance low-level monsoon rainfall may be affected However, recent studies have moisture convergence and, hence, by aerosols transported from other suggested that the two problems may increase rainfall. The latent heating regions and intensified through be intrinsically linked and need to be from enhanced rainfall may excite large-scale circulation and moisture studied jointly (Lau et al., 2008). feedback processes in the large-scale feedbacks. Thus, dust transported by circulation, further amplifying the the large-scale circulation from the Fundamentally, aerosols can affect initial response to aerosol heating deserts adjacent to northern India precipitation through radiative and producing more rain. may affect rainfall over the Bay of effects of suspended particles in Bengal; sulphate and black carbon the atmosphere (direct effect) and/ Additionally, aerosols can increase the from industrial pollution in central or by interfering and changing the concentration of cloud condensation and southern China and northern cloud and precipitation formation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount India may affect the rainfall regime and decrease coalescence and over the Korean peninsula and Japan; collision rates, leading to reduced organic and black carbon from 1 Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA/ precipitation. However, in the biomass burning from Indo-China Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, presence of increasing moist and may modulate the pre-monsoon MD 20771 2 Goddard Earth Science and Technology warm air, the reduced coalescence/ rainfall regime over southern China Center, University of Maryland Baltimore collision may lead to supercooled and coastal regions, contributing to County, Baltimore, MD 21228 drops at higher altitudes where ice variability in differential heating and 3 Laboratory for Hydrosphere and Biosphere, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, precipitation falls and melts. The cooling of the atmosphere and to the Greenbelt, MD 20771 release from freezing land-sea thermal contrast.

22 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Recent studies of Middle East deserts are transported monsoon interaction and the study into northern India, during the pre- of aerosol-monsoon interaction is aerosol effects on monsoon (April through early just beginning as an interdisciplinary the Asian monsoon June). science. The effects of aerosols on precipitation processes are strongly Forced by the prevailing wind against dependent, not only on the aerosol Many recent papers have documented the steep topography of the Himalayas, properties but also on the dynamical variations in aerosol loading, surface the dust aerosols pile up against the states and feedback processes in the cooling and their possible relationships foothills and spread over the Indo- coupled ocean-atmosphere-land with rainfall in the monsoon regions Gangetic Plain (IGP). The thick layer system. To understand a particular of India and East Asia (Krishnan of dust absorbs solar radiation and aerosol-rainfall relationship, therefore, and Ramanathan, 2002; Devara et acts as an additional elevated heat the background meteorological con­ al., 2003; Cheng et al., 2005, Prasad source for the Asian summer. The ditions affecting the relationship must et al., 2006; Nakajima et al., 2007; airborne dust particles become even first be understood. George et al., 2008; and many others). more absorbing when transported Modelling studies have suggested over megacities of the IGP and coated In this article, we present basic that aerosols in the atmosphere can by fine black carbon aerosols from patterns of aerosol and monsoon affect the monsoon water cycle by local emissions (Prasad and Singh, seasonal and interannual variability, altering the regional energy balance 2007). focusing on the Indian monsoon. We in the atmosphere and at the Earth’s use the 2008 season as an example to surface and by modulating cloud The combined heating effect due to discuss possible impacts of aerosols and rain processes (Rosenfeld, dust and black carbon may excite a on, and feedback from, the large-scale 2000; Ramanathan et al., 2001; Li, large-scale dynamical feedback via the South Asian monsoon system in the 2004). However, depending on the so-called “elevated-heat-pump” (EHP) context of forcing from the ocean experimental design, the spatial and effect (Lau et al., 2006). The effect and the land. temporal scales under consideration, amplifies the seasonal heating of the the aerosol forcing and representation Tibetan Plateau, leading to increased of aerosol and rainfall processes used, warming in the upper troposphere Aerosols and the models have produced results that during late spring and early summer, vary greatly from each other. subsequently spurring enhanced monsoon system monsoon rainfall over northern India Using a global weather prediction during June and July. Wang (2007) Global aerosol “hotspots” model, Iwasaki and Kitagawa (1998) found similar results, indicating found that aerosol effect may reduce that global black carbon forcing Aerosol-induced atmospheric feed­ the land-sea thermal contrast and strengthens the Hadley cell in the back effects are likely to be most lead to suppression of the monsoon northern hemisphere, in conjunction effective in aerosol “hotspots”, of East Asia, significantly delaying with an enhancement of the Indian which are characterized by heavy the northward advance of the Meiyu summer monsoon circulation. Meehl et aerosol loading adjacent to regions front over eastern Asia. Menon et al. (2008) and Collier and Zhang (2008) of abundant atmospheric moisture, al. (2002) suggested that the long- showed that India rainfall is enhanced i.e. oceanic areas or tropical forests. term drought over northern China in spring due to increased loading Figure 1 shows the global distribution and frequent summer floods over of black carbon but the monsoon of aerosol optical depth from MODIS southern China may be related to may subsequently weaken through (moderate resolution imaging spectro­ increased absorption and heating by induced increased cloudiness and radiometer) collection-5 data for 2005 increasing black carbon loading over surface cooling. Bollasina et al. (2008) (Hsu et al., 2004). The aerosol hotspots India and China. Ramanathan et al. suggested that aerosol influence vary geographically with the season; (2005), using aerosol forcing derived on the large-scale Indian monsoon some regions exhibit all-year-round from atmospheric brown clouds field circulation and hydro-climate is activity. experiments, suggested that aerosol- mediated by the heating/cooling of induced cooling decreases surface the land surface over India, induced It is apparent from Figure 1 that the evaporation and reduces the north- by the reduction in precipitation and Saharan desert, West Africa, East Asia south surface temperature gradient cloudiness accompanying increased and the Indo-Gangetic Plain are all- over the Indian Ocean, leading to a aerosol loading in May. year-round aerosol hotspots, linked weakened monsoon circulation. Lau geographically to major monsoon et al. (2006) and Lau and Kim (2006) These new results can be as confusing regions. The vast Saharan desert is found that an abundant amount of dust as they are informative due to the situated northwards of the rainbelt of aerosols from the Thar Desert and the complex nature of the aerosol- the West African monsoon. The East

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 23 Asia monsoon region coincides with westerlies. As shown in Figure 1(b), able for the period 1979 to 2005, the industrial megacity complex of very high concentrations, as indicated with a data gap, from 1993-1996. The China and is downwind of the Gobi by large aerosol optical thickness, increase in atmospheric loading of and Taklamakan Deserts. The Indo- are found over the northern Arabian absorbing aerosols, preceding the Gangetic Plain is a megacity complex, Sea from July to August. Aerosols northward movement of the monsoon downwind of the Thar Desert and mixed with atmospheric moisture rainband, is very pronounced from Middle East deserts. These regions during the pre-monsoon months are April to June in northern India are affected by monsoon and found in the form of haze and smoke— (>20°N). The reduction of aerosols, droughts, as well as major industrial so-called atmospheric brown clouds due to rain wash-out during the peak pollution and desert sand- and dust­ (Ramanathan and Ramana, 2005). monsoon season (July-August), is . In the remainder of this article, also evident. Clearly, both aerosols we shall focus on aerosols in the Indo- Aerosol-monsoon and rainfall are related to the large- Gangetic Plain and the Arabian Sea scale circulation that controls a large region, and their possible impacts on rainfall seasonal cycle part of the seasonal variation. The the Indian summer monsoon. high aerosol region in northern India The co-variability of absorbing in June and July actually overlaps The Indo-Gangetic Plain is an aerosol aerosols and rainfall over the Indian with the rain area, indicating the “super hotspot”, hosting the world’s subcontinent can be seen in the possibility that aerosols may interact highest population density and climatological (1979-2003) time- with clouds and rain in this area and concentration of coal-firing industrial latitude section of the Total Ozone not be totally washed out by monsoon plants. Most of the aerosols are the Mapping Spectrometer-Aerosol Index rains, due to the rapid rebuild-up from absorbing species—black carbon (TOMS-AI), and Global Precipitation local emissions and transports from from coal and biofuel burning, Climatology Project rainfall (Figure 2). outside the region. biomass burning and dust. During TOMS-AI measures the relative the northern spring and early summer, strength of absorbing aerosols based Additional details of aerosol these aerosols are blown from the on absorptivity in the ultraviolet characteristics can be deduced from Thar Desert and the Middle East spectrum and are the only global, the monthly distribution of rainfall, deserts by the developing monsoon long-term, daily satellite data avail­ aerosol optical depth and Ångstrøm

(a) March-April-March-April-MMayay (b) June-July-June-July-AuAguugstust

(c) September-October-September-October-NNoovveemmbebrer (d) December-January-December-January-FebFreubaryuary

Figure 1 — Global distribution of MODIS aerosol optical depth at 0.55 μm showing aerosol hotspots for (a) March-April-May; (b) June- July-August; (c) September-October-November; and (d) December-January-February 2005

24 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 exponent of aerosol from the single- The bulk properties of the aerosols Characteristic large- site AERONET observations (Holben et can be inferred from the variations of scale circulation pattern al., 1998) at Kanpur (located within the the Ångstrøm exponent (Figure 3(b)). associated with EHP Indo-Gangetic Plain, near the boundary This is a measure of the spectral of the wet and dry zones (Figure 3). dependence of the optical thickness, As noted previously, a steady build- The aerosol optical depth has a double which is inversely proportional to up of absorbing aerosols begins in maximum in the annual cycle, i.e. the size of the particle. The lower April-May before the monsoon rains. a strong semi-annual component Ångstrøm exponents found during Figure 4(a) shows the statistical (Figure 3(a)). The first peak is associated April-June indicate coarse particles regression pattern of May-June with the building-up of absorbing (effective particle radii >1 μm) layer-averaged (surface to 300 hPa) aerosols during May and June, before absorbing aerosols such as dust. The temperature and 300 hPa wind from the peak of the monsoon rain during higher values in November-January approximately 20 years of TOMS AI July and August. Even during the signal fine aerosols (effective radii <1 for April-May over the Indo-Gangetic rainfall peak, the background aerosols, μm) from industrial pollution, which Plain. A build-up of aerosol in April- while reduced from their maximum is likely to consist of a mixture of May over the Indo-Gangetic Plain is peak value (~0.8), are still found to be absorbing (black carbon) and non- associated with the development in very high (~0.5‑0.6), indicating that absorbing (sulphate) aerosols. May-June, of a pronounced large- not all aerosols are washed out by the Because of the prevailing subsiding scale upper level tropospheric warm monsoon rain. The second aerosol conditions over the Indo-Gangetic anomaly, coupled with an anomalous optical depth peak during November- Plain during the monsoon, it upper-level large-scale anticyclone January is likely to be caused by is possible that the fine particles are over northern India and the Tibetan the build-up of atmospheric brown more confined to the atmospheric Plateau, with strong northerlies clouds from industrial emission and boundary layer and below clouds. over 75-90°E, 20-25°N and easterlies bio-fuel burning, favoured by stable Hence, they are not detected by across the Indian subcontinent and meteorological conditions associated TOMS-AI. This may account for the the Arabian Sea at 5-20°N. The with subsiding airmass and lack of absence of a second peak in TOMS- large-scale warm-core anticyclone rainfall which prevail over northern AI. More detailed analyses are associated with increased aerosol India during the winter monsoon required to confirm this conjecture. appears to be coupled with an upper- (Ramanathan and Ramana, 2005). Both the aerosol optical depth and level cold-core situated to Hence, the semi-annual cycle may be the Ångstrøm exponent indicate its northwest. The dipole pattern is largely a reflection of the seasonal large interannual variability, as is consistent with Rossby wave response variations of the meteorological evident in the large monthly standard in temperature and wind to increased conditions. deviation. diabatic heating over India and the Bay of Bengal and reduced heating in the north-western India-Pakistan region (Hoskins and Rodwell, 1995). At TOMS-Aerosol index (1973-2003) Annual cycle (70E-80E) 40N 850 hPa (Figure 4(b)), the regression 35N 2.2 2 patterns show a general increase in 30N 1.8 25N rainfall associated with enhanced 1.6 20N 1.4 convection over north-eastern India 15N 1.2 at the foothills of the Himalayas, with 10N 1 5N 0.8 the most pronounced increase over 0.6 EQ the Bay of Bengal and the western 0.4 5S 0.2 coastal region of India in June and 10S Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. July. North-western India, Pakistan GPCP Precipitation (1997-2006) 40N and the northern Arabian Sea remain 13 35N 12 dry. Anomalous westerlies are found 30N 11 spanning the Arabian Sea, crossing 25N 10 9 the Indian subcontinent and ending up 20N 8 15N 7 in a cyclonic circulation over the Bay 6 10N 5 of Bengal. The enhanced westerlies 5N 4 EQ 3 will transport more dust from the 2 5S 1 Middle East across the Arabian Sea to 10S Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. the Indian subcontinent. Throughout the May-June-July period, the large- Figure 2 — Latitude-time climatological mean cross-section of (a) aerosol optical depth scale circulation patterns in the of absorbing aerosols based on TOMS-AI; and (b) GPCP pentad rainfall upper and lower troposphere imply

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 25 1.2 1.6 (a) (b) India and the southern Bay of Bengal. 1.4 The sea-surface temperature (SST) 1 is anomalously low over the entire 1.2 Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and 0.8 1 the northern Indian Ocean (Figure 5(b)). Such widespread, below-normal sea- 0.6 0.8 300 surface temperatures would have 250 0.6 caused a weakened Indian monsoon, 0.4 200 Aerosol optical depth (500 nm) although the cooling over the northern

Ångstrøm exponent (440-870 nm) Ångstrøm exponent 0.4 150 Arabian Sea may also be the signal 0.2 100 0.2 of a strengthened monsoon. 50

0 0 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. An east-west dipole in sea-surface temperatures in the southern Indian Figure 3 — AERONET observations of climatological (2001-2006) (a) aerosol optical depth Ocean is found, possibly as a footprint and (b) Ångstrøm exponent at Kanpur, India. The solid curve indicates monthly mean of the Indian Ocean Dipole, and is rainfall in mm/month. most likely the underlying reason for the east-west rainfall dipole in a large increase in the easterly wind easterlies connecting the Indian the southern Indian Ocean. However, shear and a deepening of the Bay of Ocean Dipole and rainfall dipole over the persistent rainfall anomalies over Bengal depression. Both are signals the southern Indian Ocean. Strong northern India cannot be explained of a stronger South Asian monsoon south-westerlies are found over the directly by Indian Ocean Dipole (Webster and Yang, 1992; Goswami Arabian Sea, and western India, conditions as land precipitation et al., 1999; Wang and Fan, 1999; and heading towards the foothills of the over India has little correlation with Lau et al., 2000). These large-scale Himalayas. The rainfall deficit over large-scale oceanic forcing such as circulation patterns are characteristic western and southern India appears the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/ of the impacts of absorbing aerosols to be related to a large-scale cyclone Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is on the Indian monsoon. over the northern Arabian Sea and possible that the rainfall anomaly may an anticyclonic flow over southern be related to an extra-tropical cyclonic stationary pattern established over The 2008 Indian monsoon (a) T1000-300 & u300mb (MJ) Reg AI_AM 45N northern India or to the westward 0.4 In this section, we use the 2008 Indian 40N extension of the monsoon trough 35N 0.3 monsoon as an example for a 0.2 from southern China. This remains 30N 0.1 discussion of possible relationships 25N to be demonstrated. 0 of monsoon rainfall to the large- 20N -0.1 scale ocean-atmosphere forcing 15N -0.2 10N Possible impacts of desert and to aerosols. The Indian summer -0.3 monsoon in 2008 is somewhat 5N -0.4 dust on Indian monsoon EQ weaker than normal, following the 40E 50E 60E 70E 80E 90E 100E rainfall anomalies in 2008 La Niña condition in the tropical (b) Pcpn & u850mb (JJ) 45N

Pacific. However, highly anomalous 40N 1.6 In this section, we examine the aerosol 1.2 and persistent wetter-than-normal 35N distribution and possible signals of 0.8 conditions are found in northern India, 30N aerosol impacts on the 2008 Indian 0.4 25N along the foothills of the Himalayas, 0 monsoon. Figure 6(a) shows the 20N and drier-than-normal conditions over -0.4 MODIS image of dust and clouds 15N central and southern India, the Arabian -0.8 over the Indian monsoon region on 10N Sea and Bangladesh (Figure 5(a)). In -1.2 18 June 2008. The large cloud cluster 5N -1.6 addition, an East-West dipole rainfall EQ over north-eastern India is related to pattern is found over the southern 40E 50E 60E 70E 80E 90E 100E enhanced convection associated with Indian Ocean between the Equator heavy monsoon rainfall along the and 10°S. While the East-West dipole Figure 4 — Characteristic anomalous foothills of the Himalayas near Nepal. in rainfall may be related to the Indian large-scale meteorological features The cloud clusters off the coast of the Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Saji et al., 1999; associated with the elevated heat pump southern tip of the subcontinent and Webster et al., 1999), the reason effect, based on regression of TOMS-AI over the Bay of Bengal are associated for the persistent rainfall anomaly during April-May with (a) tropospheric with enhanced rainfall anomalies in northern India is not known. The temperature and 300 hPa wind in May- found in those regions. Most striking low-level circulation shows strong June; and (b) rainfall and 850 hPa wind is the strong contrast between the dry,

26 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 (a) Pcpn (TRMM 3B42) (June/July 2008) (b) SST (TMI) 40N 40N where the trajectories indicate a strong re-circulation defined by the 30N 30N local topography.

20N 20N Based on previous modelling studies, 10N 10N we speculate that the above-normal dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea, EQ EQ north-western India and Pakistan

10S 10S absorb solar radiation and thereby heat 40E 50E 60E 70E 80E 90E 100E 40E 50E 60E 70E 80E 90E 100E the atmosphere. The dust aerosols -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 reduce the incoming solar radiation at the surface by scattering and Figure 5 — Anomaly patterns of (a) rainfall and 850 hPa wind (m/s) and (b) sea-surface absorption, while longwave radiation temperature (°C ) during June-July 2008. The anomaly is defined as a deviation from an from dust warms the surface and cools eight-year climatological mean (2000-2007). the atmosphere. Previous studies have shown that the aerosol-induced dusty north-west India/Pakistan and Gangetic Plain and central India, atmospheric heating is of the order northern Arabian Sea compared to extending from the foothills of the of +20 to +25 W/m2 and the surface the wet (convectively active) north- Himalayas (Figure 7, bottom panel). cooling is of comparable magnitude eastern India and Bay of Bengal. Large over the Arabian Sea and the Indian dust loading can be seen over the The dust loading over northern Ocean (Satheesh and Srinivasan, northern Arabian Sea and western India has been steadily building up 2002; Podgorny and Ramanathan, India. The dust and cloud streaks since April 2008. Back trajectory 2001). We note that the cooling of the signal a prevailing south-westerly calculations show that, during April Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean already monsoon flow over north-western 2008 (Figure 8(a)), most of the aerosols began in February/March 2008, before Arabia. The heavy dust loading is found at low level (850 hPa) at Kanpur, the dust loading increased. Hence, the persistent throughout June and part located near the boundary of the wet cooling by aerosols is most likely a of July as is evident in the distribution and dry zones in the Indo-Gangetic signal of a local effect superimposed of anomalous aerosol optical depth for Plain, are transported from dust on a large-scale ocean cooling that June-July 2008 (Figure 6(b)). Centres lifted to a high elevation (above 600- is already underway, due to other of high aerosol optical depth are found 400 hPa) over the Afghan and Middle factors. The cooling of the Arabian over the northern Arabian Sea and East deserts, with some from low- Sea increases atmospheric stability north-west India/Pakistan region, level transport over the Arabian Sea and reduces precipitation. However, with a secondary centre over eastern (Figure 8(b)). In June (Figure 8(c)), the dust aerosols, possibly in combination India and the Bay of Bengal. There is transport is shifted to the northern with local black carbon emissions, a strong East-West contrast over the Arabian Sea, and is found mostly at accumulated over northern India and Indo-Gangetic Plain, reflecting the dry low levels (below 800 hPa), consistent in the Himalayan foothills in May-June, region to the west and wet regions with the establishment of the low-level provided an elevated heat source. to the east. monsoon south-westerlies over the Figure 9(a) shows the temperature Arabia Sea and north-western India. In anomaly at the upper troposphere As is evident in the Calipso lidar July (Figure 8(d)), the trajectories still and the circulation at 300 hPa. The backscatter, the dust layers extend from indicate some south-westerly inflow presence of the large-scale warm- the surface to more than 4-5 km over a into Kanpur, but it is mostly confined core anticyclone and the strong large area from Pakistan/Afghanistan to north-western India and Pakistan, easterly flow over northern India is to the northern Arabian Sea (Figure 7, 35N top panel). The dust particles are (a) (b) 0.8 lifted to high altitudes by wind forced 30N 0.6 against the steep topography, with 25N 0.4 0.2 highest concentrations at 4 km and 20N above, over land. Over the ocean they 0 15N appear in layers below and above the -0.2 -0.4 boundary layer. Below the boundary 10N -0.6 5N layer, the dust may be mixed with sea- -0.8 salt aerosols. Further East, the thick EQ 45E 50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 95E layer of mixture of dust and aerosol from local emissions extending to Figure 6 — MODIS (a) visible image showing distributions of clouds and dust over the 5 km are clearly visible over the Indo- Indian subcontinent and adjacent oceans; (b) aerosol optical depth distribution

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 27 30

25

20

15

Altitude (km) 10

5

0

55.28 49.31 43.29 37.25 31.18 25.10 19.00 12.89 6.83 76.79 74.02 71.75 69.82 68.11 66.56 65.12 63.74 62.42

30

25

20

15

Altitude (km) 10

5

0

55.44 49.47 43.46 37.42 31.35 25.27 19.17 13.06 6.99 86.13 83.34 81.06 79.12 77.41 75.85 74.41 73.03 71.71

Figure 7 — Calipso backscatter showing depth and relative concentration of the aerosol layer along a meridional cross-section over Pakistan and the Arabian Sea (above) the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the Himalayas (below). Colour key: red = high; yellow = medium; green = low concentration; grey = clouds. Numbers on abscissa represent North-latitude and East-longitude.

remarkably similar to the characteristic the southern slopes of the Tibetan the dust layer. While the above are circulation pattern associated with Plateau and return sinking motions not definitive confirmation of impacts the elevated heat pump effect (see over southern India (Figure 9(c)). of absorbing aerosols, the large-scale Figure 4). The circulation pattern at The meridional motion shows a circulation features are consistent 850 hPa (Figure 9(b)) also resembles bifurcation in the lower troposphere with the elevated heat pump effect, the elevated heat pump pattern, near 15-20°N, featuring sinking motion including the amplified warming of the indicating a partial strengthening of presumably associated with aerosol- upper troposphere over the Tibetan the monsoon flow over north-western induced cooling and rising motion, Plateau, cooling near the surface and India and central India and increased which merges in the middle and upper an increase in monsoon flow with moisture in the upper troposphere troposphere with the ascending motion increased rainfall over northern (600-300 hPa). over the foothills of the Himalayas. The India. lower-level inflow brings increased A further signature of the elevated heat moisture to the southern slopes of the Conclusions pump effect can be seen in the north- Himalayas, increases the monsoon south cross-section of meridional flow low-level westerlies over central India The results shown here suggest and temperature anomalies from the and upper level easterlies over the that aerosol and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau to southern India southern Tibetan Plateau (Figure 9(d)). monsoon area and adjacent deserts (75-85°E). Above-normal warming Here, the meridional circulation is are closely linked to the large-scale is found over the Tibetan Plateau and likely to be forced by convection circulation and intertwined with the cooling near the surface and the lower initiated by atmospheric heating complex monsoon diabatic heating troposphere in the lowlands of the by dust and amplified by positive and dynamical processes during pre- Indo-Gangetic Plain and central India. feedback from low-level moisture monsoon and monsoon periods. The Enhanced rising motion is found over convergence and ascending air in deserts provide not only the large-

28 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 (a) April (c) June 40N 40N scale radiative forcing but also dust

35N 35N particles that are transported into monsoon regions, interfering with, 30N 30N and possibly altering, the evolution 25N 25N 200 of monsoon circulation and rainfall. 20N 20N 250 Because coupled atmosphere- 15N 15N 300 ocean-land dynamical processes 10N 10N 400 are the primary driver of the Asian 5N 5N 500 monsoon, extreme care must be 35E 40E 45E 50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 35E 40E 45E 50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 600 (b) May (d) July exercised in identifying aerosol- 40N 40N 700 rainfall relationships that are truly 35N 35N 850 due to aerosol physics and do not 900 30N 30N arise because both aerosol and rainfall 950 25N 25N are driven by the same large-scale 950 20N 20N dynamics. The 2008 Indian monsoon appears to have the tell-tale signs of 15N 15N impacts by absorbing aerosols but 10N 10N further studies must be conducted to 5N 5N 35E 40E 45E 50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 35E 40E 45E 50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E determine the details of the aerosol forcing and response of the monsoon Figure 8 — Seven-day back trajectories showing possible sources and transport routes water cycle and relative roles from adjacent deserts for air mass observed at 850 hPa over Kanpur for 11 days, starting compared to forcing from coupled from (a) 15 April, (b) 15 May, (c) 15 June and (d) 15 July 2008. Height (in hPa) of tracer is atmosphere-ocean-land processes. shown in colour. Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the NASA Interdisciplinary Investigation Program.

(a) T1000-300 June 2008 (c) T & v;w June 2008 (75E-85E) 40N 300 References 35N 400 30N Bollasina M, S. Nigam and K.M. Lau, 2008: Absorbing aerosols and summer 25N 500 monsoon evolution over South 20N 600 Asia: An observational portrayal. J. Climate., 21, 3221-3239, DOI: 15N 700 10.1175/2007JCLI2094.1 800 10N 900 Cheng, Y., U. Lohmann, J. Zhang, Y. Luo, 5N 1000 40E 50E 60E 70E 80E 90E 100E 5N 10N 15N 20N 25N 30N 35N 40N Z. Liu and G. Lesins, 2005: Contribution of changes in sea surface temperature -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 and aerosol loading to the decreasing (b) q600-300 (d) q & u precipitation trend in southern China. 40N 300 J. Climate, 18, 1381-1390.

35N Collier, J.C. and G.J. Zhang, 2008: 400 30N Aerosol direct forcing of the summer Indian monsoon as simulated by the 25N 500 NCAR CAM3. Clim. Dyn. (in press). 20N 600 Devara, P.C.S., P.E. Raj, G. Pandithurai, 15N 700 K.K. Dani and R.S. Maheskumar, 2003: 800 10N Relationship between lidar-based 900 observations of aerosol content and 5N 1000 40E 50E 60E 70E 80E 90E 100E 5N 10N 15N 20N 25N 30N 35N 40N monsoon precipitation over a tropical station, Pune, India. Meteorol. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Appl. 10, 253-262.

Figure 9 — Observed spatial distributions of June 2008 anomalies for (a) mean George, J.P., L. Harenduprakash, and tropospheric temperature (°C) and 300 hPa winds (m/s); (b) mean 600-300 hPa specific M. Mohan, 2008: Multi-year changes humidity, 850 hPa winds and meridional vertical cross-sections over northern India of aerosol optical depth in the monsoon region of the Indian Ocean and the Himalayas (75-85°E); (c) meridional-vertical streamline and temperature; and since 1986 as seen in the AVHRR and (d) zonal winds (contour) and specific humidity (shading) TOMS data. Ann. Geophys., 26, 7-11.

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30 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Air-quality management and weather prediction during the Title2008 Beijing Olympics by Jianjie Wang1, Xiaoye Zhang2, Tom Keenan3 and Yihong Duan4

Introduction A more detailed report is available extensive online monitoring and online at http://www.wmo.int/pages/ analysis campaign that supported The 29th Olympiad took place from 8 to publications/bulletin_en/index_ the logistics of the Games, but also 24 August 2008 in Beijing: more than en.html allowed for a unique assessment of 10 000 athletes from 204 countries, the effects of the efforts to improve territories or regions participated. It air quality (Zhang et al., 2008). was historically exceptional in terms Air-quality management The monitoring exercise tracked of its size, variety of sport events and measurements concentrations of airborne particulate and related activities, operations of matter PM10 and PM2.5, including municipal infrastructure and daily aerosol fractions of organics, sulphate, activities of the general public. Over Temporary emission reduction nitrate and ammonium in PM1, black 1.7 million volunteers provided a regulations were taken by Beijing carbon, aerosol optical depth, ozone full range of services. Analysis of Municipal Government to ensure and other reactive gases, including the historical meteorological data good air quality during the Olympic nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen shows that the olympic sites in late and Paralympic Games, and to fulfil oxide, carbon and sulphur dioxide. summer are exposed to significant the commitment to host the Games. Ground-based monitoring was risks from with heavy Some 300 000 “yellow-tag” vehicles reinforced with measurements of rain, lightning, high winds and . were banned from the roads in Beijing aerosol optical depth and column Fair weather also poses challenges from 1 July to 20 September 2008 (two nitrogen dioxide by satellite retrieval such as , haze, heat and stable days after the conclusion of the 2008 and the analysis of weather processes conditions, which are less conducive Paralympics) and all construction and characteristics. The monitoring to the dispersion of air pollutants and activities were stopped. In addition, was conducted at three urban stations can result in poor air quality. traffic was reduced by requiring that at different heights and at four rural all the vehicles in Beijing with license stations. The meteorological services therefore plates ending in odd/even numbers faced significant challenges in would be allowed on the road on odd- During the period of the Games, various minimizing the negative impacts of /even-numbered calendar days from atmospheric pollutants decreased detrimental events. Multiple weather- 20 July to 20 September. Additional dramatically in Beijing. Analysis related challenges and air quality had emission reduction measures that showed that this decrease was related to be addressed for the Games to focused mainly on coal-combustion not only to the implementation of be successful. An unprecedented were taken. control measures but was also strongly variety of air-quality management, linked to the weather. Specifically, monitoring and weather prediction From June to September 2008, the the subtropical high was located to solutions were undertaken by China China Meteorological Administration the south so that Beijing’s weather and international partners. (CMA) conducted a non-stop and was dominated by the interaction of a frequently eastward-shifting 1 Beijing Meteorological Bureau, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing trough in the westerlies and a cold 2 China Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, continental high with clear-to-cloudy Beijing 3 Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia days or showery weather. After 4 National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing removing estimates of the change

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 31 in concentrations from weather CUACE was run in real-time from 1 July that weather conditions in these conditions, analysis estimated that to 30 September. Two-day products areas would be more favourable for the removal of the yellow-tagged in 12-h mean and 2-h intervals of pollutant transport to Beijing. vehicles after 1 July 2008 resulted PM10, ozone and visibility for Beijing in reductions of: ~40 per cent in were provided everyday as forecast various reactive gas concentrations guidance (Figure 1) with three- to WMO World Weather linked with motor vehicles; 15-25 per seven-day forecasts of stabilized Research Programme cent of PM10 particle concentrations; weather condition forecasts based ~25-30 per cent traffic-related black on a parameter linking air quality demonstration projects carbon concentration; and 25-40 per and meteorology (Plam) index. This cent of particle organics and nitrate index is derived from the relationship Under the guidance of CMA, the concentration. of PM10 and key meteorological data Beijing Olympic Meteorological derived on the basis of summer data Service Centre (BOMSC) successfully Various reactive gas concentrations from Beijing and its surrounding areas provided “characteristic and high- linked to motor vehicle activities from 2000 to 2007. The meteorological level” meteorological services, based decreased by an additional ~15-20 per data include air temperature, relative on operational and cent with the introduction of odd/even humidity, wind, air pressure, visibility, warning systems and man-machine motor vehicle restriction guidelines clouds, evaporation, air stability and interactive platforms. In a preliminary after 20 July 2008. While the overall some history of weather phenomena assessment, the meteorological

PM10 particle concentrations increased of the preceding days. Higher Plam services that were provided in this a little, black carbon, particle organics indices and poor air quality (>150 µg/ complex and meteorologically 3 and nitrate were reduced by between m PM10) were associated with high challenging environment attained a 6-20 per cent. Ammonium product temperature, high humidity, lower public satisfaction of 93.1 per cent. and sulphate, however, rose by ~10 wind speed and stable weather. These capabilities were developed and per cent and ozone concentration An example of the use of the Plam tested well in advance by mobilizing increased by 30 per cent. index is shown in Figure 1. Each national meteorological expertise site outside Beijing was given a and resources and through effective Before and during the Games, CMA Plam weight according to the wind international cooperation. The WMO provided two-day forecasts of PM10, and speed direction relative to the World Weather Research Programme visibility and ozone to Beijing Municipal arrival of the airmass in Beijing. (WWRP) demonstration projects are Government and subsequently to the The higher Plam value at a site in two examples of this international Beijing Meteorological Bureau and Beijing’s surrounding areas shows collaboration. the Beijing Municipal Environmental 12hrs mean PM10 (µg/m3) 08072408-08072420 (CAWAS/CUACE) 12h-mean 03 (ppb) 08072408-08072420 (CAWAS/CUACE) Protection Bureau. The forecasters 44N 44N

43N 43N used the CMA Unified Atmospheric 350 42N 42N 300 Chemistry Environment (CUACE) 150 250 41N 41N 120 model for haze and ozone forecasting 200 40N 40N 100 150 80 system. This is a unified atmospheric 39N 100 39N 50 80 chemistry and environment modelling 38N 38N 30 50 20 system that can be easily coupled with 37N 30 37N 10 20 36N 36N different types of weather and climate 10 models at various temporal and spatial 35N 35N 34N 34N scales. For this application, CUACE 110E 111E 112E 113E 114E 115E 116E 117E 118E 119E 120E 121E 122E 121E 122E 123E 124E 110E 111E 112E 113E 114E 115E 116E 117E 118E 119E 120E 121E 122E 121E 122E 123E 124E 12hrs mean visibility (km) 08072408-08072508 (CAWAS/CUACE) 12hrs mean Plam 08072408-08072420 (CAWAS/CUACE) was fully coupled with the MM5 44N

42N prediction model with a horizontal 43N

42N resolution of 54 km over Asia and 100

50 the eastern part of Europe. The initial 41N 40N 30 40N and boundary conditions were from 20 39N 10 38N the CMA operational global medium- 5 38N 1 range prediction model. CUACE 37N 0.5 36N 0.1 comprised a chemistry module for 36N gases, gas-to-particle conversions, 35N 110E 112.5E 115E 117.5E 120E 122.5E 125E

34N secondary organic aerosols and -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 20 30 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110120130140150160 110E 111E 112E 113E 114E 115E 116E 117E 118E 119E 120E 121E 122E 121E 122E 123E 124E aerosols. Figure 1 — 12- or 24-h forecast guidance of surface PM10, visibility and ozone as well as On the basis of a CMA regional Plam index for Beijing and its surrounding areas by CUACE of the Centre for Atmosphere emission inventory from Cao (2006), Watch and Services, CMA, starting at 08 BTC, 24 July 2008

32 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Based on the WMO/WWRP project Table 1 — Data provided to B08FDP in the summer of 2008 by the Beijing Meteorological for the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games, Bureau CMA formulated plans in 2003 for Data type No. of stations and location Frequency of update a WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (BO8FDP) and a Research 4; with time synchronization 6 minutes and Development Project (BO8RDP) AWS 106; in and around Beijing 5 minutes to assist in the technical support for Radiosonde 5; in and around Beijing 6 hour the weather forecasting and services Wind profiler 1; in Beijing 6 minutes for the Beijing 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Games. NWP-RUC Horizontal resolution at 3 km, covering 3 hours Beijing and surrounding areas

The overall mission of B08FDP was to Satellite-FY2C 1 30 minutes demonstrate and quantify the benefits Lightning 1 in Beijing and 2 in Hebei province Real-time of an end-to-end nowcast (0-6 h range, especially in the 0-2 h time- economic benefits to end-users. See forecasters to enhance local support frame), focusing on the prediction box below for the eight nowcasting to the B08FDP systems, especially the of high-impact weather, using the systems which participated. local application of products. Some latest science and technology. It end-users participated as trainees. was targeted on the development, B08FDP was a 3.5 year effort with application and field demonstration two trials in the summers of 2006 The BO8RDP focused on short-term of nowcasting systems for local and 2007 to improve systems and (6-36 h) predictions through the convective storms, the use of products optimize individual algorithms on development and utilization of high from these systems in operational storm extrapolation, quantitative resolution (15 km) limited-area short- forecasting and assessments of socio- precipitation estimation, product range ensemble prediction systems generation and other tasks. The field by six different participants (the US trials also enabled the systems to National Center for Environment Participating adapt to local data, computation and Prediction and NCAR; Environment network environment. A real-time Canada, Japan Meteorological Agency; nowcasting forecasting verification system was Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und developed by the Australian Bureau Geodynamik of Austria, MeteoFrance systems of Meteorology and transferred to the and CMA). A common framework was Beijing Meteorological Bureau. By set up in which the six participants mid-July 2008, all these systems met ran their computer models remotely BJ-ANC (Beijing Meteorological the demonstration requirements. They in their own institutions with the same Bureau and the US National were finalized and frozen to ingest computation configuration covering Center for Atmospheric Research and process, on a real-time basis, Beijing and surrounding area. The (NCAR) the multivariate and frequent local observational data and ensemble observational data (see Table 1) and to member data were transmitted CARDS (Meteorological Service generate products for prediction (see through ftp server in real-time, with of Canada) Table 2) and real-time verification. unified resolution and area location, unified data format and filename and GRAPES-SWIFT (Chinese Three international workshops and a GRIB2 encoding/decoding standard. Academy of Meteorological number of meetings and telephone Table 3 shows the characteristics of Sciences) conferences were held to diagnose the six systems. the technical difficulties encountered STEPS and TIFS (Australian during the different implementation From 2006 to 2008, all participating Bureau of Meteorology) stages, explore solutions, identify systems were run in real- or near- responsible working groups and real-time in the summer seasons SWIRLS (Hong Kong (China) discuss roadmaps and timelines and the predictions were compared Observatory for major activities. Key technical and analysed. At the CMA National issues included radar data-quality Meteorological Centre (NMC) and NIWOT (NCAR) control, radar synchronization, 3- National Meteorological Information D mosaic of radar raw data and the Centre, a system was set up to fulfil MAPEL (McGill University, transfer of research into operations. the tasks of observation and ensemble Canada, and Weather Decision Two training workshops were held in prediction data transmission, data Technologies, USA) Beijing in April 2007 and July 2008 encoding/decoding, verification, to train local experts and weather bias correction and product

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 33 Table 2 — The B08FDP products on www.b08fdp.org

System Output products Forecast range (minutes) Reflectivity≥35dBZ 30, 60 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) 0-30, 0-60 B Auto- Nowcaster Storm evolution 30, 60 J Boundaries 30, 60 A Wind (u and v) N Vertical velocity C VDARS Analysis Perturbation temperature Relative humidity QPF 0-60 CARDS Point forecast Every 6 min to 102 min Storm occurrence and properties 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 42, 60 QPF 0-30, 0-60, 0-120, 0-180 Reflectivity 30, 60 GRAPES-SWIFT Storm track (35, 40, 45, 50, 55 dBZ) 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 42, 60 Convective wx potential 0-60 QPF 30, 60 MAPLE Reflectivity 30, 60 NIWOT Reflectivity≥35dBZ 60, 120, 180, 240, 300, 360 QPF (Mosaic domain ) 0-30, 0-60, 0-90 STEPS S POP (1, 10, 20, 50 mm, Mosaic domain) 0-60 Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) (6 min., Mosaic) Analysis T QPE (60 min, Mosaic) Analysis E QPE (120 min, Mosaic) Analysis P Rain fields QPE (180 min, Mosaic) Analysis S QPE (60 min, gauge blended, Mosaic) Analysis Gauge (60 min, interpolated, Mosaic) Analysis QPF (radar) 0-60, 0-120, 0-180 Probability of lightning threat 0-60, 0-120, 0-180 Storm occurrence and properties (reflectivity >=34 dBZ) 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 42, 60 : lightning initiation (type & severity), 0-30 SWIRLS (severity type), hail (type), rainstorm (intensity type) Severe wind gust (maximum possible) 0-30 POP (1, 10, 20 mm for 60 min; 1, 10, 20, 50 mm for 180 min; 1,10, 20, 0-60, 0-180,0-360 50 mm for 360 min) QPF (blended) 0-60, 0-120, 0-180, 0-240, 0-300, 0-360 Storm probability ensemble (VIPS lightning warning guidance, 0-60 automatic mode) T Storm probability ensemble (VIPS lightning warning guidance, I 0-60 TIFS manual mode) F S Rain probability ensemble (VIPS rainstorm warning guidance) 0-60

Probability of wetting rain (2 mm/h) 0-60 TITAN* Storm occurrence and properties (≥35 dBZ) 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 42, 60 WDSS* Storm occurrence and properties 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 42, 60

* TITAN is a part of Auto-Nowcaster developed by NCAR, USA. WDSS is a nowcasting system developed by the US National Severe Storm Laboratory. The two systems were participant systems of the S2KFDP for the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games and left to the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia (BOM) after the Games. BOM integrated these two systems into TIFS and as one participant system of the B08FDP.

34 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Table 3 — The B08RDP limited area ensemble prediction system in the summer of 2008

Participants Model IC Initial LBC Lateral Physical perturbation perturbation perturbation NCEP WRF-ARW (5) NCEP Breeding NCEP NCEP Multi-model WRF-NMM (5) 3DVAR Global EPS Global EPS GEFS- Downscaled (T284L60, 5) (L60M15) MRI/JMA NHM Meso Targeted JMA Global Global forecast None (L40M11) 4DVAR Global SV Forecast (T63L40) (20kmL40) (T63L40) (TL959L60) initiated by targeted SV MSC GEM MSC MSC Global MSC Global MSC Global Physical (L28M20) Global EnKF EPS EPS tendency EnKF perturbation with Markov chain, surface perturbation ZAMG & ALADIN ECMWF Blending ECMWF ECMWF Multi-physics METEO- (L37M17) Global ECMWF SV Global EPS FRANCE 4DVAR with ALADIN Forecast Forecast Bred Mode NMC/CMA WRF-ARW WRF-3DVAR Breeding CMA Global CMA Global Multi-physics (L31M15) EPS EPS CAMS/CMA GRAPES GRAPES- Breeding CMA Global CMA Global Multi-physics (L31M9) 3DVAR EPS EPS

generation, based on multi-source probability of surface elements, the • Preparing the concise texts ensemble prediction data and uncertainties of circulations and the describing the dominant product display, etc. Most ensemble special products associated with high- circulation patterns and weather products were distributed to NMC impact weather. Moreover, probability systems, as well as potential and the Beijing Meteorological products for Olympic venues were impacts on the Beijing area in Bureau as guidance for forecasters. developed. general, and on sport venues in The BO8RDP also emphasized the particular; real-time demonstration, evaluation The demonstration period for the and intercomparison of modelling aforementioned eight nowcasting and • Interpreting B08FDP products for activities that typically lie in the the real-time forecasting verification local forecasters; and research community (e.g. multi- system took place from 20 July to centre probabilistic products for the 20 September 2008. Thirteen experts • Participating on behalf of the high-impact weather, high-resolution from Australia, Canada, Hong Kong group in the twice daily weather cloud-resolving model (about 2-4 km) (China) and the USA worked an discussions. for severe weather events). intensive demonstration period (1- 24 August). All B08FDP systems To ensure effective application of provided a subset of the nowcasting In the case of an important service or ensemble products, NMC had focused guidance products referred to in a complex weather event, the B08FDP on training national- and province- Table 2 every six minutes. experts and local experts participated level forecasters in their daily weather in exchanges with forecasters and forecast duty over the previous few For support to operations to be more weather discussions in the enhanced years. Liaison between the mesoscale efficient, a project expert and two monitoring period more frequently. For and nowcasting projects was set local experts were responsible for: the opening and closing ceremonies, up and product requirements were B08FDP experts worked together with investigated from experts and • Organizing analyses and Beijing Meteorological Bureau (BMB) user groups to meet the needs of discussions on the weather and forecasters to track the variations of the Olympic weather service. The nowcasting products within the weather systems continuously until products included the mean/spread/ B08FDP group; the end of these events.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 35 Three approaches were implemented project participants in real-time. Third, Hong Kong for equestrian events; to enable weather forecasters and ensemble products developed for the Tianjin, Qinhuangdao, Shenyang on-site weather service teams to 17 Olympic venues were transmitted and Shanghai for football). With the directly access demonstration project to BMB by a high-speed dedicated approval of CMA and Beijing Municipal products and verification outcomes cable network. This allowed close Government, BOMSC was established in a user-friendly manner: collaboration between the B08RDP as the sole official meteorological forecasting and BO8FDP nowcasting service provider in August 2006 (TOK, • A Webpage (http://www.b08fdp. applications. 2008). Its organizational structure is org) in Chinese and English was given in Figure 2. developed on the BMB internal CMA B08RDP experts also worked Website, dedicated to forecasters closely with forecasters by transmitting BOMSC comprised three components: and on-site service teams for the and interpreting ensemble predictions meteorological services of the host products (see Table 2); and providing weather forecasting city, co-host cities and venue weather suggestions from the prospective of offices. Some national operational • A subset of the B08 products research. Ensemble forecasts were meteorological centres and research was put into the man-machine used to characterize uncertainties institutions within the CMA framework interactive platform in the in the predictions. Uncertainties are and six temporary meteorological BMB operational nowcasting needed to better understand and service bodies were created in Beijing, procedures for direct use improve forecasting of high-impact Qingdao and Hong Kong to support as nowcasting guidance by weather events through comparison outdoor sporting events and major forecasters; with single, deterministic forecasts. public gatherings. The meteorological services of the host and co-host cities • Local experts provided fore­ were to provide weather forecasts and casters with printouts and oral Weather forecasting services to the local sport organizing interpretations of products and committees and local organizers for expert interpretation. In addition, services major public activities, whereas the for other end-users (e.g. Beijing national operational centres and Organizing Committee for the The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games research institutions were tasked Olympic Games (BOCOG)), involved the host city and six co- with providing technical guidance civil aviation meteorological host cities (Qingdao for sailing; and support to the meteorological departments, the boating service unit of the Summer Palace China Meteorological Beijing Municipal Administration Government and the general public), the Beijing Olympic Meteorological Service Website (http://www. Weather Beijing Olympic Services Weather2008.cn) in Chinese and BOCOG Meteorological Services Olympic Family English was opened to access Centre and browse products.

Met. Office of Olympic Venue Weather National Technical Cities (7) Offices (6) Support Centres (6)

To ensure the practical application Beijing Meteorological Bureau National Meteorological of B08RDP ensemble products in the VWO for rowing/canoeing Centre Olympic meteorological services, Tianjin Meteorological National Climate Bureau especially during high-impact VWO for athletics Centre weather events, NMC designed Shanghai Meteorological Bureau National Satellite several approaches to ensure the VWO at opening/closing Meteorological Centre direct access of weather forecasters ceremony centre Shenyang Meteorological and project participants to ensemble Bureau VWO at Sports Command National Meteorological products, observations and analysis Centre Information Centre Qinhuangdao fields. First, ensemble products Meteorological Bureau Chinese Academy of were categorized and translated into Meteorological Sciences Qingdao Meteorological VWO for sailing different data formats for different Bureau Atmospheric Observation end-users or display purposes. Hong Kong VWO for equestrian Centre of CMA Second, the B08RDP Webpage (www. Observatory events b08rdp.org) was developed in the NMC internal Website to ensure access by Figure 2 — Organizational structure of the Beijing Olympic Meteorological Service all forecasters from BMB/NMC and Centre

36 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 offices in the host and co-host cities, generated much nowcasting automatically generated warning apart from Hong Kong Observatory, guidance (see Table 2); texts in both Chinese and English which had full responsibility to with an editing function. provide weather forecasts and • The BJ-RUC system was services for equestrian events. All developed jointly with NCAR. It • The OMIS system had multiple relevant observations, forecasts and is the local version of the Weather functions. It collected real-time warnings received by the dedicated Research and Forecasting system observations and venue-specific Beijing Olympic Information system with a number of improvements. weather forecasts in Beijing and were collected and converted into With a rapid cycle every three co-host cities and automatically a unified format by BMB and then hours, it provided high-resolution decoded, converting data format disseminated to BOCOG. (3 km) mesoscale numerical and unit of measurements, output covering Beijing and the translating into the target The special demands for highly surrounding area for the following languages, classifying and refined meteorological services 24 or 36 hours as forecast packaging for different users in sports events and related large social guidance; the form of different products and events exceeded the range of routine distributing to BOCOG, Beijing weather forecasts and operational • The OFIS system was a man- Olympics INFO2008 system, services in many aspects. To address computer interactive tool to Beijing Olympic Broadcasting and this issue, BMB, in association with facilitate the analysis of weather Olympic Meteorological Service other meteorological services focused conditions and the production Website in real-time. on research and the development of of three-hourly forecasts of new techniques, methodologies and refined weather elements over There was more rainfall than normal tools to make the refined forecasts of the following three days (0-63 h) in Beijing during the Olympic Games. weather elements at specific venues, based on a variety of observations, The accumulated precipitation (8- nowcasts and early warnings of local numerical weather prediction 24 August) was 151.7 mm in the severe convective weather (Wang, (NWP) products and venue plain, 90 per cent higher than the 2007). The following “four systems forecast guidance, as well as real- same period of the 30-year average and two interactive tools” were time verification of guidance. The (80 mm). There were four widespread established: venue forecast guidance derived precipitation events across Beijing mainly from: and another four local precipitation • The Hi-MAPS system pre- – Multi-element, venue-specific events, of which five individual days processed a wide range of forecasts by the support vector had 10 mm of daily precipitation. On frequent observations in a rapid machine regression method, a 10 and 11 August, the city witnessed update manner (e.g. six-minute statistic interpretation of NWP heavy storms and rainfall. High-impact radar volume scanning raw data, products; weather other than precipitation was six-minute wind profiles, five- – Multi-element, venue-specific less than normal. minute automatic weather station forecasts by half-periodic observations, six-hour enhanced function fit methods, based In the face of complex and changeable radiosonde observations, etc.). Hi- on the chief forecaster’s weather, BOMSC paid special attention MAPS provided observation data conclusions for 12-hourly to some key components in its service for the BMB operating systems forecasts for the following delivery: and provided standard data for three days; the eight B08FDP demonstration • Enhancing weather “consultation” systems on a real-time basis; • The VIPS system, a man- Special discussions were machine interactive tool, assisted organized for important events, • The BJ-ANC system was forecasters in monitoring severe such as the opening and closing developed jointly with NCAR. convective weather and producing ceremonies and weather- It produced severe convective early warnings in the Beijing sensitive outdoor events. Senior nowcasts based mainly on multiple area. A variety of high-frequency forecasters and experts, as well Doppler radar observations with mesoscale meteorological as foreign nowcasting experts, more complex extrapolation observations and NWP products, participated; techniques. It also incorporated as well as nowcasting guidance other algorithms, such as the and geographical information, • Making good use of advanced variational Doppler radar analysis could be superimposed on technologies system and radar quantitative one screen. It also supported The “four systems and precipitation estimation and early warning mapping and two interactive tools” were prediction algorithms. The system screen-revision functions and incorporated into early warning

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 37 and refined forecast processes which helped the organizers arrange but that the high jump and javelin to tap the human potential for the timing of a number of outdoor would be postponed for one hour. improving efficiency and quality events. The Olympic Schedule based on high technologies; Committee called six telephone From the check-in of the athletes conferences and made schedule at the Olympic Village to the end • Enhancing interactions with changes for eight sports events of the Paralympic Games, BOMSC venues according to the weather forecasts issued and distributed more than The simplified VIPS version was delivered by BOMSC. Despite more 10 000 copies of weather forecasts, installed at on-site weather offices rainfall than normal, accurate and reports, briefings and warnings in so that service teams could timely short-term forecasts and 18 categories in Chinese, English and access updated observations, nowcasts, as well as continuous French (Table 4). At the same time, forecasts and early warnings follow-up services, ensured the more meteorological information and enable them to interact in a smooth running of the majority of than ever before was issued to the timely manner with end-users. outdoor events. Only a few were general public by television, radio, At the same time, information interrupted because of unexpected Internet, telephone, newspapers, communication channels allowed rainfall. messaging and other means and staff on-site and at head office weather information in English was to accommodate the changes in These weather services contributed also made available. The Olympic users’ demands, and to provide significantly to all events. For Meteorological Service Website relevant and tailored services at example, BOMSC forecast that (www.weather2008.cn), established any time. there would be more rainfall before by BOMSC, had a link to the official 09:00 on 21 August, but would BOCOG Website, which received more With the benefit of these initiatives, lessen thereafter. The International than 15 million visits. BOMSC provided BOCOG with Association of Athletics Federations “characteristic and high-level” refined decided that the women’s 20-km walk Preliminary verification on the three- forecasts and early warning services, and decathlon would be held on time, hourly weather forecasts for the next

Table 4 — Weather forecast and severe weather warning issued by BOMSC from 25 July to 17 September 2008

Sum of products No. Names of products Chinese English French 1 3-hourly weather forecast for venues of host and co-host cities 13 160 13 160 272 2 Weather briefing specially for Olympics 110 110 48 3 Severe weather warning for host and co-host cities 390 390 4 7-day weather forecast of host and co-host cities for Beijing Olympics 55 55 24 5 Hourly wind forecast for Beijing Olympic shooting range (CTF) venue 62 62 -- 6 Weather forecast for Beijing Olympic rowing-canoeing venue 60 60 -- 7 Weather forecast along roads for 2008 Beijing Olympic marathon 30 30 -- 8 Weather forecast for Beijing Olympic urban cycling road course 56 56 -- 9 Weather forecast for the opening (closing) ceremony of Beijing Olympics 301 301 -- 10 Meteorological risk warning for the opening (closing) ceremony of Beijing Olympics 11 -- -- 11 Beijing weather forecast specially for traffic 110 -- -- 12 report for Beijing Olympics 22 -- -- 13 Weather outlook of next 10 days for Beijing Olympics 12 -- -- 14 Weather outlook of next 30 days for Beijing Olympics 2 -- -- 15 Weather forecast specially for Beijing Olympic logistics 55 -- -- 16 Weather forecast for the opening (closing) ceremony of Qingdao Olympic sailing 50 -- -- 17 Hourly wind forecast for Qingdao Olympic sailing venues 165 -- -- 18 Weather report for Hong Kong Olympic equestrian events 138 138 --

38 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 63 h targeted at venues in Beijing Forecast accuracy of relative humidity (|F-O|<10%). Aug 8th - 24th 2008 showed that: SVM 100 HPFF • Forecasters largely depended on Forecaster the guidance provided; they could 80 make merit-based judgments and amendments; 60 • The quantitative precipitation forecast is the most difficult one 40 in forecast elements, especially Forecast accuracy (%) when it relates to specific location 20 and time; 0 • Forecasters’ skills in temperature, 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 relative humidity and wind speed were slightly better than forecast Hour guidance, but their skills for Figure 3 — Forecast accuracy rate of relative humidity (bias<10 per cent) (statistics precipitation and based on the data of 8-24 August 2008) were more or less equivalent to the guidance on average; Mean absolute error of temperature. Aug 8th - 24th 2008 4 SVM HPFF • The accuracy rate of three-hourly 3.5 Forecaster

relative humidity forecasts issued 3 by forecasters, with bias less than 10 per cent against observation, 2.5

was about 70 per cent within 2 24 h, 65 per cent in 24-48 h, and 1.5 55 per cent beyond 48 h. The

mean absolute error of three- (°C) Mean error absolute 1 hourly temperature forecasts was 0.5 about 1.7°C within 24 h, 2.0°C in 24-48 h, and 2.2°C beyond 48 h 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 (see Figures 3 and 4); Hour • Comparing the performance of venue three-hourly precipitation Figure 4 — Mean absolute error of temperature (°C, statistics based on data of 8-24 forecasts using the threat score August 2008) (TS), forecasters had higher skill than support vector machine guidance, but the skill decreased affiliates, the opening and closing have a lasting effect on both China with valid time (TS around 0.1-0.2 ceremony operators, Shunyi water and the international community. within 24 h, and 0.07-0.13 in 24 h- sports teams, the National Stadium, 63 h against TS of support vector city operation teams, city officials, Large decreases in concentrations machine guidance less than 0.1 sport event organizers, referees, of many traffic-related gases and in 0-63 h). It is noticeable that athletes, volunteers and the general aerosols from traffic restrictions TS of three-hourly venue rainfall public, believed that the forecasts were observed. The yellow-tag guidance within a 24-h valid time delivered by BOMSC were accurate, vehicle ban had a larger effect on the from BJ-RUC had the highest TS timely and effective with a public reduction of atmospheric pollutants among the three. However, its satisfaction rate of 93.1 per cent. than the alternating registration plate unstable performance on different restrictions. Several recommendations runs during the daily cycle did not Conclusions were made to Beijing Municipal give forecasters the confidence Government for understanding and to rely on it more. The successful, extensive and improving air quality on the basis of complex set of activities to support these findings, and other urban areas Responses to a satisfaction survey air quality and weather during the throughout the world could benefit showed that users such as BOCOG Olympic and Paralympic Games will from this knowledge.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 39 BOMSC provided effective and quality to any single ensemble so that benefit Acknowledgements weather services in a period having can be obtained from the real-time more rainfall than normal. This was utilization of probabilistic products The authors wish to thank all participants recognized by all sectors. The success for severe weather. Nevertheless, the in B08FDP/RDP for their contributions to the success of the project and their was due to the use of advanced paradigm shift of a forecast office outstanding performance in supporting technologies and techniques, the from deterministic to ensemble the meteorological services to the 2008 “human” role, close interactions prediction is challenging, even after Beijing Olympics. F. Liang, S.Y. Shi, D.B. Su, H. Guo, and X.Q. Ma helped in with end-users, implantation careful training. making the figures and tables. of demonstration projects and unique working and management The Olympic Meteorological Service measures. provided a practical opportunity for forecasters to produce refined References The WMO/WWRP B08FDP proved weather forecasts. However, refined to be very effective in support of the forecasting is a new and challenging Wang, J.J., 2007: Refined forecasts for the weather service to 2008 Beijing Beijing Olympic nowcasting services task for forecasters whose previous Olympics. Paper for Annual Workshop not only by providing guidance, experience in conventional forecasts of China Meteorological Society, but also a complementary highly is not necessarily applicable. At December 2007 (in Chinese). interactive approach between experts, present, skills of forecasters for CMA, 2008: Transfer of Knowledge forecasters and knowledge deliver making refined forecasts slightly (TOK), Functional Area Report— personnel. B08FDP was a successful outperform the objective prediction Meteorological Service. example of combining research methods, but there will be much Zhang, X.Y., Y.Q. Wang, X.C. Zhang, T. Niu, findings with operational applications. room for forecasters to play a value- S.L. Gong, P. Zhao, J.L. Jin and M. Yu, This practice should be followed in added role in refined forecasts by 2008: Aerosol monitoring at multiple developing enhanced nowcasting continuous and cumulative learning locations in China: contributions of EC and dust to aerosol light absorption. support elsewhere. from experience. Tellus B 60B, 647-656.

The WMO/WWRP B08RDP furthered The activities for the Olympic and knowledge on the use of multi- Paralympic Games were extensive and centre ensembles and characterizing much of their success lies in the long- uncertainty. The bias-corrected term multi-year planning for all aspects and combination products of the of the effort and commitment of the multimodel ensemble were superior international partners and local hosts.

40 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 WMO research and development activities in air quality, weather and climate to benefit Africa by André Kamga Foamouhoue1, Jose María Baldasano2, Emilio Cuevas Agulló3, TitleAïda Diongue-Niang4, Carlos Pérez García-Pando2, Eugene Poolman5 and Madeleine Thomson6

Introduction cent in 2000. Droughts in East Africa immediate benefits to Africa by reduced the hydro-electric potential of improving access to, and the utility Dramatic and sustained improvements Kenya, leading to an emergency loan of, prediction products of the have occurred in our prediction of more than US$ 50 million. Poor air developed world to a 10-year research capabilities for air quality, climate quality from biomass-burning, sand and development plan to enhance and weather (e.g. Hollingsworth et and dust and air pollution is also a predictive and mitigation capacities al., 2005; Intergovernmental Panel growing concern. within Africa. on Climate Change, 2008; Uppala et al., 2005). Nevertheless, the demands As a result, changes have occurred Severe Weather for more accurate predictions have in the orientation of African National increased due to the exponential Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting growth of population, climate change Services (NMHSs) from one of Demonstration Project and the increasing susceptibility primarily taking meteorological of society to natural disasters and observations to one of contributing to The current capabilities of leading poor air quality by concentrating sustainable development by assisting numerical weather prediction (NWP) populations in urban centres, coastal public safety and sensitive economic centres include high-resolution regions and river valleys. activities (Afiesimama, 2007). The deterministic models that provide foundation for this shift in orientation the best estimate of future weather Mitigating strategies are a particular is the ingenuity and initiative of the and ensemble prediction systems challenge for Africa with many NMHSs, often in partnership with (EPS) that attempt to capture the developing nations of which more WMO Members outside Africa, that range of possible outcomes and than 30 are among the 49 Least have resulted in both improved use of extend the useful range of forecasts. Developed Countries (LDCs) of the modelling products and limited area These advances have meant that world. Such nations have limited models being run locally by several the lead-time of severe weather ability to mitigate natural disasters NMHSs in Africa. This paradigm warnings has increased far beyond which threaten public safety but shift is also supported by broad the traditional two days with routine also cause shock waves that ripple international collaboration that has useful forecasts issued up to five days through fragile economies. For developed under WMO. in advance with outlooks several days example, tropical-cyclone-related beyond. Unfortunately, few NMHSs floods reduced Mozambique’s annual This article describes three project of developing nations and LDCs have growth rate from 8 per cent to 2.1 per that range in scope from bringing adequate access and make extensive use of the high-resolution products; 1 African Centre for Meteorological Applications to Development even fewer make use of EPS to reach 2 Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Centro Nacional de these extended lead-times. Supercomputación 3 Director del Centro de Investigación Atmosférica de Izaña, Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia To ensure that LDCs and developing 4 Direction de la Météorologie nationale, Sénégal nations also benefit from the 5 Chief Forecaster: Disaster Risk Reduction, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, revolutionary advancements in South Africa 6 Chair Africa Regional Programme, International Research Institute for Climate and Society predictive skill, the WMO Commission (IRI) for Basic Systems (CBS) initiated

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 41 which maintained control over the Unravelling the effects of weather, final decision on issuing warnings to their emergency management climate and sand-/duststorms on authorities. RSMC Pretoria also meningitis outbreaks in central Africa provided daily guidance products of potential heavy rain or strong wind for the next five days, based on an Meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the Sahel caused by the analysis of all available NWP and bacterium Neisseria meningitides occur in the latter part of the dry EPS products. RSMC La Reunion, season, characterized by dry and dust-rich trade winds. What responsible for exactly triggers meningococcal meningitis epidemics across the Sahel? Is forecasts in the South Indian Ocean, it possible to create early warning systems that could provide longer lead- maintained normal operations and times for initiating response? The complexity of these questions expands supported the project with valuable the discussion between the atmospheric sciences and health communities. information on tropical . The The Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies (MERIT) project included training for the five Consortium has evolved through the collaborative efforts of the WHO and participating NMHSs to enhance the members of the environmental, public health and research communities. use of guidance and model products The consortium aims to extend current capabilities to more effectively on the RSMC Pretoria Website. The combine and use environmental information with knowledge of epidemic project is being expanded to all meningococcal meningitis through analysis that includes information and 16 countries of Southern Africa and data on distribution of meningitis cases, population, environment and should prove to be a useful model climate, vaccination status and strain characteristics. for developing nations and LDCs elsewhere. Further details on this In particular, dust is considered an important candidate for use in an successful project can be found in epidemic early warning system. Although the mechanism by which dust the recent article by Poolman et al. may influence meningitis epidemic occurrence remains unclear, the most (2008) in the December edition of common explanation for its role is that physical damage to the epithelial MeteoWorld (http://www.wmo.int/ cells lining the nose and throat in dry and dusty conditions permits the pages/publications/meteoworld/ easy passage of the bacteria into the blood stream. More accurate climate index_en.html). and dust forecasts for the in the Sahel could be of relevance for establishing early warnings of meningitis epidemics. It is expected that the MERIT approach will have an immediate impact on public health outcomes Sand- and duststorms in Africa through increasing the effectiveness of meningitis prevention and response control strategies. in Africa: opportunities to better monitor and predict the risk- reduction process the Severe Weather Forecasting conducted in south-eastern Africa Demonstration Project (SWFDP). from November 2006 to November When winds are strong, large amounts Its aims include the improvement 2007 with the European Centre for of sand and dust can be lifted from in accuracy and lead-time of Medium Range Weather Forecasts bare, dry soils and transported into forecasts of severe weather events, (ECMWF), the US National Centres for the atmosphere downwind, affecting improving the lead-time of alerts Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and regions hundreds to thousands of for these events and improving the the United Kingdom Met Office acting kilometres away. Approximately interaction of NMHSs with emergency as Global Product Centres. 1 000- 3 000 Tg of dust is exported management authorities before and from source regions each year. The during events. The Regional Specialized Sahara Desert is the largest source of Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of mineral dust aerosol and contributes The project utilizes the network of Pretoria (designated to the South 50-70 per cent of the dust emitted Global Data Processing and Forecasting African Weather Service), was worldwide. For countries in and System (GDPFS) centres to provide responsible for the distribution downwind of the Saharan Desert, state-of-the-art operational products of the NWP and EPS products airborne sand and dust present through a cascading forecasting through a dedicated Website to five serious risks to the environment, process (e.g. global production centres participating NMHSs (Botswana, property and human health. Saharan to NMHSs through regional centres). Madagascar, Mozambique, United dust also plays an important role in The first regional subproject was Republic of Tanzania and Zimbabwe), climate and weather due to their

42 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 direct (radiative forcing) and indirect region, providing publicly available and forecast products to meet the (clouds, precipitation) impacts on the products. needs of their societies. SDS-WAS atmosphere. and MERIT are also GEO activities Fifteen countries in the region to assist in capacity-building. In the early 1990s, it was understood have shown interest in improving that, if dust concentrations were their capabilities to forecast and An SDS-WAS regional centre for included as predictive variables in understand the dust process. As a Northern Africa, Middle East and NWP models, successful predictions response to the interest, and with Europe is being hosted by Spain. of the atmospheric dust process the support of Fourteenth World This regional node has generously (emission, turbulent mixing and Meteorological Congress, the WMO provided technical support staff, deposition) could be performed. secretariat launched the Sand and data storage and Web capabilities A first experimental dust forecast Dust Storm Warning, Advisory with the possibility of using local was performed in 1993 for the and Assessment System (SDS- high-performance computational North African and Mediterranean WAS) in 2007 as a joint project resources. To meet user needs, the region. However, modelling with an of the World Weather Research Regional Centre in Spain already accurate dust component could not be Programme (WWRP) and the Global provides daily dust prediction accomplished without corresponding Atmospheric Watch (GAW) under the products for northern Africa (www. observations. In the beginning of WMO Commission for Atmospheric bsc.es/projects/earthscience/ the 1990s, only synoptic visibility Sciences. The SDS-WAS mission is DREAM/). The steering group for observations and coarse Meteosat to enhance the ability of countries to this region met in Tunis-Carthage in images indicating dust presence over deliver timely and quality sand- and November 2008 to implement a near- the sea were available to validate duststorm forecasts, observations, real-time system in 2010 and begin dust forecasts. Several subsequent information and knowledge to users the process of requesting formal projects and initiatives have been through an international partnership participation of operational and launched to improve our knowledge of research and operational research modelling centres. National of the dust process and its impacts communities. SDS products will users and international organizations in Africa, including aspects of the be created and delivered to users will be consulted in the development African Monsoon Multidisciplinary via the Web with the aim of having of useful products and tools. This Analysis–Special Observation, the the same output from the various regional effort also includes a 40- Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment participating models displayed year re-analysis product containing a and the Bodélé Dust Experiment 2005 in identical formats over a single, historical database of dust forecasts (the Bodélé Desert is believed to be uniform agreed upon domain. The to develop climatological tools the largest single source area in the project will also include a near-real and to support applications such Sahara). time verification system. Capacity- as for the health community (see building will be a major component box on previous page). A second Dust modelling and related measure­ of the regional Centre in Africa in regional centre for Asia is being ments have drastically improved over order to improve both observation hosted by the China Meteorological the last 15 years. Today, there are a technology and the capacities of Administration. The coordination number of advanced atmospheric countries to utilize SDS observations between both regional centres is dust models producing daily research forecasts; there are also several other models used for scientific research, WMO SDS-WAS including very high resolution models. A number of most recent satellite products from NASA (e.g. MODIS, CALIPSO) and ESA (Meteosat Second Regional node 1 Generation) are capable of detecting Regional node n Regional Centre 1 dust over the Saharan region in high Partner n resolution modes and to observe Partner 1 its vertical structure. There are also ... Partner 2 Partner 5 ... other complementary observational Partner 3 Partner 4 dust activities such as lidar networks Regional node 2 (WMO GALION), sunphotometry (GAW/AERONET-PHOTONS/SKYNET) and particulate matter networks. Six dust forecast models are routinely run Figure 1 — The international network of SDS-WAS comprised of federated nodes, over the African and Mediterranean assisted by regional centres

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 43 The THORPEX (The Observing Core Steering Committee, 2005). The System Research and Predictability WWRP-THORPEX African Science Experiment) programme of the plan was developed in 2006 and WMO WWRP has developed an 2007, following planning meetings ambitious 10-year plan to assist in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, and in achieving these improvements. Karlsruhe, Germany, in February and THORPEX was established as a November 2007, respectively. An 10-year international research and implementation plan was developed, development programme in 2003 using the foundation provided by Fourteenth World Meteorological by the science plan with a third Congress to focus on research that WWRP/THORPEX Africa planning would accelerate improvements in meeting in Pretoria, South Africa to the accuracy of one-day to two-week agree on a final vision. These three Figure 2 — Proposed domain for the forecasts of high-impact weather meetings are the cornerstones of Northern Africa, Europe and Middle and to realize the related societal, the African THORPEX Science Eastern node of the SDS-WAS project economic and environmental benefits and Implementation Plans and of improved prediction (Shapiro and the establishment of a Regional Thorpe, 2004; THORPEX/International Committee. guaranteed through the WMO SDS- WAS Steering Committee. Water Availability

3 Reducing impacts of 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 m Scarcity Stress Vulnerable natural disasters and Côte d’Ivoire contributing to food Niger security in Africa Benin Sudan Senegal The challenges in Africa for air quality, Mauritania weather and climate are numerous Mozambique (WMO, 2008). Africa has a population Uganda of several hundred million, who place Ghana significant pressure on resources, Togo food supply and demand, especially Nigeria Water availability per capita in desert margins. It is also among Madagascar in 1990 in 2025 the most vulnerable of the world to Burkina Faso Tanzania hydrometeorological disasters. The Water scarcity observing and modelling systems Zimbabwe less than 1 000 m3/person/year Ethiopia Water stress of the region have relatively high 1 000 to 1 700 m3/person/year deficiencies. In addition, weaknesses Lesotho Water vulnerability 3 in communication infrastructure in Mauritius 1 700 to 2 500 m /person/year most African countries have created Comoros Freshwater Stress and Scarcity a barrier to disseminating forecasts South Africa in 2025 products. These challenges imply that Egypt significant benefit would occur from Somalia a long-range strategy to improve not Malawi only predictive skill of the models Rwanda but also the infrastructure, scientific Burundi capabilities and technical expertise Kenya of Africa. These improvements would Carpe Verde allow Africans to play a far greater Djibouti Scarcity role in developing and implementing Stress improvements in forecasting and in DELPHINE DIGOUT G R I D BASED ON A SKETCH BY PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ responding to, and mitigating, the UNEP A r e n d a l MAY 2002 detrimental effects of weather, air Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Addis Abeba ; Global Environment Outlook 2000 quality and climate change. Figure(GEO), UNEP, 3 — Earthscan,Water availability London, 1999. in Africa for 1990 and 2025

44 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 damaging production and distribution infrastructure, reducing supply and Morocco Tunisia increasing demand. Power shortages Algeria Western have increased in Africa over the Sahara Libya Egypt past decade and THORPEX Africa envisages collaboration with major Touaregs Halaïb Mauritania Mali power corporations to develop and Eritrea Senegal Sudan demonstrate better estimates of Gambia Niger Chad Casamance Burkina Djibouti Guinea- supply, demand and early warning Guinea Faso Bissau Benin Nigeria Somaliland information. Sierra Ivory Togo Central Coast Leone Ghana African Rep. Ethiopia Liberia Cameroun Somalia Sao Tome Equatorial Uganda Transportation: An important source e Principe Guinea Rwanda Kenya of income of most African NMHSs is Gabon Democratic Congo services to aviation. WWRP/THORPEX Republic of Burundi the Congo Indian will support further improvements Tanzania Ocean to these meteorological services to Comoros sustain and strengthen the thrust and Angola Malawi Mayotte Chronic malnutrition Zambia (France) visibility of NMHSs and thus facilitate (less than 2300 calories per day Mozambique and per capita, in 1995-1997) the development and implementation Namibia Zimbabwe Madagascar of an AMDAR-Africa project. Food shortages Botswana

Main areas of famines during Swaziland the last thirty years Health: Malaria, meningitis, Rift Lesotho 0 500 km Valley fever and cholera are among Main conflicts in the 90s South Africa PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ JUNE 2002 weather-/climate-driven diseases that

Sources: Map originally created by sylvie Brunel and Cécile Marin. Human Development Report, PNUD, 1996 ; Ramsès 1994, Dunod; hit African countries. The existing Total Call of the HCR Examination of the Programs, HCR, 2001 ; The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO, Rome, 1999 ; Populations en danger, Médecins sans frontières - Lepac, La Découverte, 1995 ; Interventions, Action internationale contre la faim, 1994; Le Monde partnerships for MERIT (see box on peut-il nourrir le monde?, Les Clés de la planète, hors-série n° 1, Croissance, Paris, 1998. page 42) between WMO and WHO is a framework to engage the health Figure 4 — Malnutrition and food shortages in Africa community in studies to better understand weather- and climate- health relationships and improve on The THORPEX Africa effort will sustainable development for many epidemic preparedness and response contribute to development objectives African countries. THORPEX will plans. agreed at UN conferences and summits contribute to integrated water (e.g. the World Summit on Sustainable resource management with better The interested reader is referred Development in Johannesburg, South heavy rainfall and flooding forecasts to the complete Science and Africa in 2002; the WMO Conference and warnings. Implementation Plans on the Web on secure and sustainable living; social (http://www.wmo.int/thorpex) and and economic benefits of weather, Food security: The majority of asked to provide comments. A few climate and water services in Madrid, African countries have experienced highlights of the WWRP/THORPEX 2007). The programme was developed severe malnutrition, food shortage Implementation Plan for Africa are: by African researchers for Africa. The or famine over the past decades. current version of these plans will be The USAID/Famine Early Warning • To enhance the use of available vetted by NMHSs and other potential System (FEWS) already operating observing technologies, participants early in 2009, leading to a in Africa will work with THORPEX including satellite-based final version of the plan in the summer Africa to test advanced forecasting remote-sensing, assess the of 2009. The THORPEX-Africa plan systems to improve early warnings performance of operational and puts special emphasis on activities with integrated forecasts from days to special observation networks that contribute to societal benefits a season, while the African Economic on predictive skill, and provide and the utilization of advances in EPS Research Consortium will assess the recommendations to the WMO deterministic models. The plan is user- damage of past high impact weather Commission for Basic Systems driven, focusing on the following key events on food security and develop for an optimal low-cost observing application areas: tools to estimate the incremental network from the prospective of benefits. high impact weather; Water management: the vulnerability, stress and scarcity of water Energy: Weather hazards contribute • A weather information system are impediments to secure and to power shortages over Africa by for Africa will be developed in

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 45 into account the move to Internet and cellphone communication and strengthening of novel ... changes have occurred in the orientation of uses of local communication resources. African National Meteorological and Hydrological Services from one of primarily taking meteorological Concluding remarks observations to one of contributing to sustainable development by assisting public safety and sensitive This article outlined three international efforts coordinated by the WMO to economic activities. benefit African society by improving prediction capabilities. The first effort is the SWFDP programme. An appealing aspect of this project is collaboration with the United of a partnership with the socio- the use of the cascading forecasting Nations Educational, Scientific economic research community; concept to deliver state-of-the-art and Cultural Organization/ operational prediction capabilities International Centre for Theoretical • Forecast demonstration pro­ to the developing world at relatively Physics with the identification jects, training and other low cost. The second project is SDS- of high-impact weather events, capacity-building/infrastructure WAS that is making a new forecast impact data, analysis methods development are planned, as capability available in Africa. It also has and tools. These will support required by the Madrid action strong links to end-users and serves joint initiatives between socio- plan (March 2007) and the as a focal for model improvement, economic, environmental and Brussels programme of action product development and new forecasting scientists to develop for LDCs adopted by the third ensemble capabilities for sand- and end-to-end products and services. UN Conference for LDCs (May duststorms. The project has benefited A workshop to define the content 2001). These demonstration from national resources to establish of this system will take place in projects should include EPS a regional centre Spain and from 2009. A subsequent effort will and the next generation of cooperation between partners. define predictive skill to help high-resolution deterministic isolate weaknesses in the chain forecasting systems, and The third project, THORPEX-Africa, of events from model prediction satellite application facilities (e.g. is a long-term vision to improve the to the utilization of weather EUMETSAT-Meteosat Second prediction and research capabilities information; Generation). These efforts will within Africa in contrast to the improve the limited visibility previous efforts that rely more heavily • THORPEX Africa will contribute to of NMHSs in some countries on capabilities outside Africa. A long- a seamless integrated forecasting as it is an impediment to staff term development project requires system in Africa that uses recruitment and development; buy in from the NMHSs and the deterministic and EPS products African users of environmental from days to seasons and decades. • WWRP/THORPEX Africa will prediction products. Even with the This activity will start by identifying work with WMO/World Weather assumed strong contribution from existing products at daily, weekly, Watch/WMO Information nearly all components of WMO, biweekly and monthly timescales System to assess the strengths a coordinated effort to generate at global centres and assess their and weaknesses of the Global resources is needed to make the vision availability, quality, utility and Telecommunication System of THORPEX Africa a reality. One step potential added value; over Africa and to develop and in resource mobilization, as well as to implement a telecommunication strengthen links and benefits to end- • Forecast verification, damage, project to network African users, is the recent establishment of losses and cost/benefit university laboratories, research THORPEX-Africa as a Group on Earth assessments will be made from institutes, NMHSs, regional and Observations task. This article seeks a user perspective and cost/ international centres for data and to gain feedback from the broader benefit assessment schemes will exchange methods, tools and Africa community and other partners be developed in the framework products. Such an effort will take to implement this vision.

46 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Acknowledgements socio-economic value in GEOSS. Q.J. THORPEX/International Core Steering R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3493-3512. Committee, 2005: THORPEX Inter­ national Research Implementation We thank the participants without whose Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Plan, WMO/TD-No. 1258, WWRP/ contributions, these WMO efforts for 2008: Fourth Assessment Report: THORPEX, No. 4, 95 pp. Africa would not have been possible. Climate Change 2007—The Physical Basis. Cambridge University Press. Uppala, S.M. et al., 2005: The ERA-40 re- analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, Poolman, E., H. Chikoore and F. Lucio, 2961-3012. References 2008: Public benefits of the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration WMO, 2007: The Madrid statement and Project in south-eastern Africa. action plan. International Conference Afiesimama, E.A., 2007: Weather WMO newsletter MeteoWorld. http:// on Secure and Sustainable Living: forecasting in Africa over the last www.wmo.int/pages/publications/ Social and Economic Benefits of 25 years. WMO Bulletin, 56 (1), meteoworld/swfdp_en.html Weather, Climate and Water Services. 49-51. http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/ Shapiro, M.A. and A.J. Thorpe, 2004: wmoprod/documents/madrid07_ Hollingsworth, A. et al., 2005: The THORPEX International Science ActionPlan_web_E.pdf transformation of earth-system Plan. WMO/TD-No. 1246, WWRP/ observations into information of THORPEX, No. 2, 51 pp.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 47 Air quality, weather and climate in Mexico City Titleby Luisa T. Molina1, Benjamin de Foy2, Oscar Vázquez Martínez3 and Víctor Hugo Páramo Figueroa3

The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is one of the world’s largest megacities with an estimated 20 million inhabitants living on the dried bed of the elevated lake Texcoco and its surroundings. The inland basin is at an altitude of 2 240 msl and is surrounded on three sides by mountains and volcanoes, with an opening to the Mexican Plateau to the north and a mountain gap to the south-east. With a diameter of around 50 km and limited room for expansion, MCMA has a high density of population as well as of industrial and commercial activities (Figure 1). It represents around 20 per cent of Mexico’s population and 9 per cent

of its greenhouse gas emissions, with Molina L.T. emissions of 60 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Figure 1 — Aerial photo of Mexico City

Air quality management solar radiation combined to cause per billion (about three times the strategies and trends intense air-quality problems of both standard) 40-50 days a year, among primary and secondary pollutants. the worst in the world (Molina and During the 20th century, Mexico The automatic air-quality monitoring Molina, 2002). City experienced a huge increase in network, established in the late 1980s, population and urbanized area as it revealed high concentrations of all Both the Mexican Government and the attracted migrants from other parts criteria pollutants: lead, carbon citizens of Mexico City have recognized of the country and industrialization monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur air pollution as a major environmental stimulated economic growth (Figure 2). dioxide, ozone and particulate matter and social concern since the mid- Population growth, increasing (PM). Ozone exceeded the air quality 1980s. In the 1990s, comprehensive motorization and industrial activities, standards more than 90 per cent of air quality management programmes a constrained basin and intense days and peaked above 300 parts were developed and implemented. Specific actions included removal of lead from gasoline and the 1 Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, California and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, USA implementation of catalytic converters 2 Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, Missouri, USA in automobiles, reduction of sulphur 3 Environment Secretariat, Government of the Federal District, Mexico content in diesel transportation fuel;

48 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Mexico City was selected as the case study of MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local And Global Research Observation), an international scientific project to investigate the of emissions from a megacity (Molina et al., 2008). These field studies have provided comprehensive data­ sets for updating and improving the emissions inventory, the chemistry, dispersion and transport processes of the pollutants emitted to the MCMA atmosphere and their regional and global impacts.

One of the important PROAIRE 2002- 2010 measures is in the transportation sector, the most important source of pollutants emitted to the MCMA atmosphere. Mexico City has recently adopted the bus rapid transit system, designed initially in the city of Curitiba, Brazil, and successfully adopted in Limit of metropolitan area Bogotá, Colombia, where prime road Federal District boundary State limit space was allocated to low-emission, Municipality (State of Mexico) limit high-capacity buses. A recent study 1910 1930 1950 1970 2000 conducted by researchers at INE/ SEMARNAT showed that commuters’ Figure 2 — Topographical map of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area showing urban exposure to carbon monoxide, expansion hydrocarbons and particulate matter was reduced by about 50 substitution of fuel oil in industry continuing increase in population and per cent when the popular 22-seater and power plants with natural gas; economic activity (Figure 3). Mexico gasoline minibuses were replaced reformulation of liquified petroleum City’s levels for particulate matter and by modern diesel buses (Metrobus) gas used for heating and cooking. The ozone, however, still exceed standards running in a confined or dedicated government also strengthened the recommended by the World Health lane (Wöhrnschimmel et al., 2008). vehicle inspection and maintenance Organization. This study corroborated Bogotá’s programme; vehicles were required to findings that the bus rapid transit be inspected in a centralized system The Metropolitan Environmental system can simultaneously reduce and more frequent inspections Commission (CAM), an interagency criteria pollutant and greenhouse- were required for higher emitting body that consists of environmental gas emissions, commuters’ exposure vehicles as incentives to promote fleet authorities in federal government, levels and travel time. turnover and help ensure the proper the State of Mexico and the Federal maintenance of vehicles. In addition, District was created in the mid- The Government has also increased the “no driving day” (Hoy no circula), 1990s to coordinate the policies and its efforts to encourage public which stopped private vehicles from programmes that are implemented participation and stakeholder input. circulation one day a week, have been in the metropolitan area. The current Information on air-quality levels and effective in modernizing the vehicle air-quality management programme, new initiatives are available on line fleet by exempting low-emitting PROAIRE 2002-2010, includes a series (www.sma.df.gob.mx/simat/) and vehicles from the “no driving day” of new measures to further improve published in news media. rule. air quality and calls for more extensive observation data to improve the Meteorology As a result of these regulatory MCMA emissions inventory (Molina actions, combined with technology and Molina, 2002; CAM 2002). A Aside from air pollution, the Mexico change, concentrations of criteria large field measurement campaign, City Metropolitan Area has an ideal pollutants have been decreasing supported by CAM, was carried out climate: a cool dry season from over the past decade, despite the in 2003 (Molina et al., 2007). In 2006, November to February, followed by

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 49 20 Population accumulation of pollutants and peak 18 smog episodes. In MCMA, simulations of particle trajectories show that the 16 rapid growth of the boundary layer 14 leads to efficient vertical mixing.

Inhabitants (millions) 12 When the convergence line moves 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 north-east, the air mass is vented from Year 5.0 the basin by the winds aloft. There is Vehicles therefore limited recirculation and 4.0 day-to-day carry-over in the basin. 3.0 In fact, MCMA is more similar to 2.0 Houston, where a polluted airmass Vehicles (millions) Vehicles 1.0 is vented out to sea in the morning 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 and transported back over the city Year by the afternoon sea breeze (Banta 600 Energy consumption et al., 2005). 500 400 From the climate point of view, a 100- 300 Transport sector 200 year time series of temperature from 100 the meteorological observatory shows 0 a slight decrease in the first half of the Energy consumption PJ/Year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 century followed by a marked increase Year 0.30 up to the present of 2 to 4 °C. There has Ozone (annual average of daily maximum) also been an increase in the number 0.25 Figure 3 — Trends and duration of heat waves in MCMA. 0.20 in population, Modelling studies of land use change 0.15 vehicular fleet, energy suggest that up to three quarters of

0.10 consumption and this may be attributed to the urban ozone concentration heat island and the remainder to 0.05 Concentration (ppm) in the Mexico City climate change. Studies of the urban 0.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 Metropolitan Area heat island show that it may interact Year (1990-2006) with the mountain-valley winds and influence night-time drainage flows a warm dry season until April and a concentrations during rush hour and afternoon ventilation. rainy season from May to October. and into the morning. Being at low Temperatures are moderate and latitudes (20°N), synoptic forcing is Rainfall had an even more pronounced humidity is low. With mountain weak and the weather is strongly trend over the last century than shielding on most sides, winds are influenced by the mountain-valley temperature (see Figure 5). Annual weak inside the basin. In terms of air winds in the basin. A typical warm- rainfall at the observatory has pollutants, the cool season has strong season circulation starts with weak increased by 50 per cent. Whereas surface inversions and higher peaks drainage winds into the basin. This there used to be 0-3 days per year of primary pollutants in the morning. is followed by very rapid boundary with extreme events (> 30 mm/day) at The warm season has more ultraviolet layer growth to maximum heights the beginning of the century, there are radiation and hence more smog. Drier of 2-4 km in the early afternoon. A routinely 5 to 10 days per year in more conditions cause increased aerosol gap flow enters the basin from the recent decades. It is still unclear how loadings due to dust and biomass south-east and creates a convergence much of the change can be attributed burning. The rainy season has lower line across MCMA (see Figure 4). The to the urban heat island and how

PM10 and carbon monoxide but timing of the gap flow determines the much to climate change. continues to have high ozone due to location and magnitude of maximum intense photochemistry before the ozone concentrations (de Foy et al., Climate Change Action Plan afternoon showers. Air quality is 2008). therefore a year-round concern. The MCMA’s Climate Change Action With such weak winds and intense Plan (Acción Climática), designed for Part of the problem lies with smog, it is tempting to compare MCMA 2008-2012, consists of 26 emission- meteorology. Weak winds and with Los Angeles. In Los Angeles, reduction measures, 12 adaptation strong temperature inversions at stable high-pressure systems with measures and six communication night lead to high primary pollutant aloft lead to multi-day and education measures with a total

50 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Figure 4 — Conceptual program for climate change, education circulation model for for resource-efficient housing, water a warm-season day. conservation, public understanding Surface winds from the campaigns and integrated waste north meet the gap flow management campaigns. The focus is from the south (red) and on raising awareness, understanding form a convergence line risks and promoting adaptation and (pink). Vertical mixing mitigation measures. leads to basin venting due to westerlies aloft Results to date include a “solar (blue). MODIS true colour standard” being promoted for solar image projected on terrain collectors for hot water provision. elevation model (vertical This has already been adopted by scale exaggerated). 30 per cent of swimming pools (6 957 m2 installed) where it has a 1.5 year pay back period. Installation will continue with 6 500 new housing budget of nearly US$ 5.955 billion. It improved flood management by projects by 2012, as well as adoption was initiated with World Bank support, developing flood gates and alert by hotels and other commercial developed with analysis of costs, systems. Rural development partners. benefits, barriers and impacts and projects will promote soil and concluded with public consultation water conservation, reforestation The Metrobus system is a resounding and consensus-building between and crop protection projects. These success with one of the most highly 32 governmental organizations. will further include monitoring used lines in the world carrying The aim is to reduce greenhouse- of genetically modified crops, 265 000 passengers per day. This gas emissions by 7 million tonnes promotion of organic agriculture, is the first project in the world to of carbon dioxide equivalent for the planting of climate- change-resistant sell emission reductions as part of period from 2008 to 2012 and to have tree species and the promotion of its financing. For the period from an adaptation plan ready for 2012. green roofs. Adaptation to increased 2005 to 2007, there was reduction of temperature will focus on remote- about 67 400 tonnes carbon dioxide The largest emission-reduction sensing and monitoring of forest equivalent, which sold for 281 600 measures are for biogas capture fires and an epidemiological euros. New lines are being developed projects and waste-management monitoring system for vulnerable and 10 new transport corridors will be projects. Next come the transportation populations. installed by 2012 leading to a reduction sector with public transport for school of 369 500 tonnes of carbon dioxide children, a new Metro (subway) line, Education and communication projects equivalent along with an improved up to 10 new Metrobus lines and include a permanent education urban environment. special transport corridors. These are complemented by fleet renewal 1 300 projects for taxis and medium-capacity 1 200 buses, inspection and maintenance 1 100 measures and modernization of fleet 1 000 transfer and renovation stations. 900 In the residential sector, efficient 800 lighting for homes is particularly 700 cost-effective. Additional measures 600 will address residential energy and 500

water use and sustainable housing Millimeters/year 400 development. Energy efficiency will be 300 promoted through targeted projects 200 in government agencies and public 100 utility sectors. Further measures 0 include renewable energy generation

projects and recycling centres. 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Adaptation to increased rain and extreme events will consist of Figure 5 — Historical trends in rainfall at one meteorological observatory in MCMA

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 51 Urban meteorology research Global: climate change

REGIONAL: acid rain, tropospheric ozone, WMO Members reacted to the needs to develop aerosols, greenhouse gases meteorological and environmental capabilities in urban areas by establishing the Global Atmosphere (GAW) Urban Research Meteorology and Environment (GURME) LOCAL: air pollution project in 1999. The interest arose from the difficulties health effects lume Heat island P countries were facing from growing urbanization and related air pollution problems.

Several projects have been undertaken under GURME People to assist and facilitate related research activities and consequently in establishing urban applications. These projects include such activities as: • Studies to understand the formation of local atmospheric pollution; • Heat island studies; forecasting and to help identify future research needs • Designing, establishing and enhancing both to improve the forecasts. Training has been offered to meteorological and air pollution measurement Latin American and South Asia regions. Both research networks; and operational sectors have come together in these • Building air-quality modelling and forecasting events. systems and services; • Training and capacity-building for air-quality GURME involves cooperation between organizations and modelling and forecasting; agencies acting in different fields. Working in concert • Studies on the impact the urban area has on regional with different authorities is important for the successful air quality; carrying-out of the studies, implementation of activities • Building Web-based communication systems for and fostering of improved prevention strategies. informing authorities and the public on special weather conditions (such as ice, snow, smoke and GURME also engages collaboration that extends to haze) and on air pollution. regional and global scales. There is growing appreciation that accurately forecasting chemical weather requires GURME has concentrated its efforts on air-quality consideration of the influence of pollution sources from modelling and forecasting—activities needed to support larger-scale phenomena (such as duststorms and forest effective environmental management on the urban fires). The multiscale nature of the issues addressed in scale. Expert meetings are conducted to gather up-to- GURME necessitate and facilitates collaboration across date information on new methods for chemical weather scales.

Conclusions The Government has also taken air pollution and climate mitigation actions to mitigate greenhouse-gas efforts have been conducted for Mexico City has been working on emissions. The aim of the plan is to Mexico City. An examination of four improving air quality for a number promote “no-regrets” policies that megacities (Mexico City, New York of years. Much progress has been are beneficial even in the absence of City, Santiago de Chile, and São Paulo) made in tackling air-pollution climate change. The plan also seeks by Cifuentes et al. (2001) indicated problems through comprehensive to focus on “win-win” strategies that greenhouse-gas mitigation would air-quality management programmes that promote social development lead to large reductions in ozone and based on scientific, technical, social at the same time as environmental particulate matter concentrations with and political considerations. Yet benefits. substantial resulting improvements in continuing pressure from increasing public health. McKinley et al. (2005) urban population and the desire of There are substantial air-quality found that five proposed control people to have a better quality of life co-benefits to mitigating climate measures in Mexico City, estimated causes an ongoing need to improve change. Integrated assessments to reduce annual particle exposure air quality. evaluating co-benefits of coordinated by 1 per cent and maximum daily

52 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 ozone by 3 per cent, would also reduce De Foy, B., J.D. Fast, S.J. Paech, Molina, L.T., S. Madronich, J.S. Gaffney greenhouse gas emissions by 2 per D. Phillips, J.T. Walters, R.L. Coulter, and H.B. Singh, 2008: Overview of T.J. Martin, M.S. Pekour, W.J. Shaw, MILAGRO/INTEX-B Campaign, IGAC cent for both periods 2003-2010 and P.P. Kastendeuch, N.A. Marley, Newsletter, 38, 2-15. 2003-2020. Another study showed that A. Retama and L.T. Molina, 2008: if the current air-quality management Basin-scale wind transport during West, J., P. Osnaya, I. Laguna, J. Martínez programme (PROAIRE 2002-2010) the MILAGRO field campaign and and A. Fernández-Bremauntz, 2004: comparison to climatology using Co-control of urban air pollutants for Mexico City were implemented cluster analysis. Atmos. Chem. and greenhouse gases in Mexico as planned, they would result in a Phys., 8:1209-1224. City. Environmental Science and reduction of 3.1 per cent of projected Technology, 38:3474-3481. CAM, 2002: Programa para Mejorar la carbon dioxide emissions in 2010, Calidad del Aire en el Valle de México Wöhrnschimmel, H., M. Zuk, G. Martínez- in addition to substantial local air- 2002-2010, Comisión Ambiental Villa, J. Cerón, B. Cárdenas, L. Rojas- pollutant reductions (West et al., 2004). Metropolitana, Mexico. Bracho and A. Fernández-Bremauntz, 2008: The impact of a rapid bus It is therefore important to integrate McKinley, G., M. Zuk, M. Hojer, transit system on commuters’ air-quality and climate-stabilization valos onzález niestra M. Á , I. G , R. I , exposure to benzene, CO, PM2.5 and aguna artínez snaya goals in the design of environmental I. L , M.A. M , P. O , PM10 in Mexico City. Atmospheric policy to realize potential synergistic L.M. Reynales, R. Valdés and Environment (in press). J. Martínez, 2005. Quantification benefits. of local and global benefits from air pollution control in Mexico City. Environ. Sci. Technol., 39, 1954-1961. References Molina, L.T. and M.J. Molina (Eds.), 2002: Air Quality in the Mexico Megacity: Banta, R.M., C.J. Seniff, J. Nielsen- An Integrated Assessment, Kluwer Gammon, L.S. Darby, T.B. Ryerson, Academic Publishers. R.J. Alvarez, S.R. Sandberg, E.J. Williams and M. Trainer, 2005: A Molina, L.T., C.E. Kolb, B. de Foy, bad air day in Houston, Bul. Amer. B.K. Lamb, W.H. Brune, J.L. Jimenez, Meteoro. Soc., 86: 657-669. R. Ramos-Villegas, J. Sarmiento, V.H. Paramo-Figueroa, B. Cardenas, Cifuentes, L., V.H. Borja-Aburto, V. Gutierrez-Avedoy and M.J. Molina, N. Gouveia, G. Thurston and D.L. Davis, 2007: Air quality in North America’s 2001: Climate change: hidden most populous city—overview of health benefits of greenhouse gas the MCMA-2003 campaign, Atmos. mitigation, Science, 293, 1257-1259. Chem. Phys., 7, 2447– 2473.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 53 The carbonaceous aerosol— Titlea remaining challenge by Karl Espen Yttri*, Cathrine Lund Myhre* and Kjetil Tørseth*

Introduction the carbonaceous aerosol is needed. between the carbonaceous aerosol This article briefly highlights central and cardiovascular emergency The ambient aerosol level remains effects of the carbonaceous aerosol department visits. With emerging a major challenge in atmospheric on health and climate and addresses evidence of effects which can science due to its ability to cause some of the knowledge gaps related be directly associated with the negative health effects and its ability to future projections. It also addresses carbonaceous fraction, the ability to to influence the radiative balance the need for further development of assess exposure and effect to larger and, thus, the Earth’s surface monitoring activities to reduce these populations will improve. temperature. Our knowledge of the knowledge gaps. mechanisms by which the effects can The carbonaceous aerosol contains be explained, however, is still a matter a large number of organic species, of ongoing research. Moreover, our The carbonaceous but the majority remains yet to be understanding of the atmospheric identified. However, the presence sources and sinks and of the physical aerosol and of well-known toxics, such as and chemical properties of the aerosol health effects oxy- and nitro-polycyclic aromatic is still incomplete. hydrocarbons and polychlorinated On a worldwide basis, the annual dibenzodioxins/furans have been A large part of our shortcomings number of premature deaths caused reported. Nevertheless, the scientific in this area can be attributed to the by cardiovascular and pulmonary community is still grappling with what carbonaceous fraction of the aerosol, diseases following ambient air causes the ambient aerosol toxicity. despite having received substantial particulate matter (PM) exposure is scientific attention during the last 15- estimated to be substantial at 800 000 In a recent study, McDonald et al. 20 years. This could be explained partly (World Health Organization (WHO), (2004) were able to pinpoint certain by the large number of species involved 2002). Despite growing evidence that particulate organic species (hopanes in the formation and transformation of certain sources of particulate matter and steranes) when addressing the the carbonaceous aerosol, and by the are more strongly related to negative lung toxicity of diesel and gasoline fact that current analytical capabilities health effects than others (Hoek et exhaust samples. This finding are insufficient for complete qualitative al., 2002; Laden et al., 2000), WHO provides valuable insight into which and quantitative characterization. Also, still recommends the use of only sources and constituents of the the emissions to the atmosphere one risk factor when assessing the complex carbonaceous aerosol are of primary carbonaceous particles health impacts of ambient particulate responsible for the lung toxicity of and gas precursors of secondary matter exposure. Thus, any major inhaled particles. Further, it supports carbonaceous aerosols are poorly contributor to ambient particulate the epidemiological studies pointing known. matter, such as the carbonaceous towards vehicular traffic as an fraction, constituting 20-70 per cent important source of air pollution To improve this situation, increased of the mass concentration, is of major leading to premature mortality (Hoek knowledge of nearly every aspect of concern. et al., 2002; Laden et al., 2000; Metzger et al., 2004). Finally, it strengthens the * Research scientist, Norwegian Institute for Recently, epidemiological studies have general advice given by WHO that Air Research demonstrated a statistical association combustion-derived primary particles

54 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 are particularly important as they “are often rich in transition metals and organic compounds, and also have a relatively high surface area”. As the international community prepares to enter a regime where renewable fuels will play a more important role, it should be kept in mind that WHO does not distinguish between the effects caused by particles from combustion of fossil fuel and those of biomass combustion (WHO, 2005).

The carbonaceous aerosol and climate effects

When studying aerosol impact on climate, the largest uncertainties by far are associated with the effects of the carbonaceous aerosol. It is also fair to argue that the carbonaceous aerosol is currently the most important with respect to aerosol effect on climate. This is mainly attributed to the black carbon part of the carbonaceous http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/ aerosol, which absorbs solar radiation

in the atmosphere. According to NASA Ramanathan and Carmichael (2008), this feature has made black carbon the MODIS Terra satellite image including fire hot spots (red dots) over western Canada second most important contributor to on 5 July 2004, 19:35 UTC. The grey colours indicate the smoke plumes from the boreal global warming after carbon dioxide. forest fires. However, the climate effect of black carbon is uncertain and debated (Forster et al., 2007). on snow and ice could enhance glacier is vital to quantify and subsequently Elevated black carbon concentrations melt, not only in the northern high reduce uncertainties in the climate in areas with high solar radiation are latitudes but also in non-polar regions effects of black carbon to be able to a major contributor to the so-called such as the Himalayas and could work out effective and well-targeted brown clouds covering large regions, subsequently cause secondary effects abatement strategies. for instance in Asia (Ramanathan and with respect to water supply in the Carmichael, 2008). Brown clouds have densely populated regions draining In this respect, increased know­ led to dimming of the Earth’s surface, the Himalayas. ledge of sources and physical warming of the atmosphere and and optical properties of black perturbation of the hydrological cycle, These pronounced effects of black carbon is particularly essential for possibly affecting the monsoon. carbon on the regional and global the implementation of effective climate and its short lifetime (1 week ± mitigations steps. In particular, As pointed out in the Fourth Assessment 1 week) compared to carbon dioxide, the use of source specific tracers, Report of the Intergovernmental Panel has led several to the conclusion that radiocarbon analysis, and aerosol on Climate Change (IPCC) (Forster, reducing emissions of black carbon time-of-flight mass spectrometers 2007), black carbon in snow has a is the most effective strategy to slow has proven helpful resolving sources substantial impact on total radiative global warming (Bond, 2007; Hansen of black carbon. forcing of the atmosphere by et al., 2000; Jacobson, 2002), while absorbing more incoming sunlight. reduction of greenhouse gases are Any attempt to reduce black carbon Furthermore, black carbon deposited needed to stop the warming. Thus, it emissions will also benefit the goals

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 55 set by WHO with respect to health, of biomass (renewables) is likely to and combustion appliance and this as toxicological studies (Donaldson et increase by approximately 200 per may affect the toxicity of the particles. al., 2000) have linked adverse health cent between 2000 and 2020. Current knowledge on this matter effects to elemental carbon exposure. is, however, very limited. While the The organic carbon fraction of the Future emissions of carbonaceous presence of levoglucosan in winter carbonaceous aerosols could enhance aerosols from the expected increase in points to carbonaceous aerosols the absorbing capacity of black carbon biomass consumption will be critically from residential wood burning, the by a factor of 2-4 when acting as a dependent on the technologies used presence of levoglucosan in samples coating (Bond et al., 2006; Fuller et al., to transform biomass into heat and collected in summer has been 1999; Jacobson, 2001, Schnaiter et al., energy. Predictions made by the associated with impacts from wild 2005). The organic carbon aerosol is International Institute for Applied fires and agricultural waste burning. also ultraviolet-absorbing due to the Systems Analysis for the CAFÉ While agricultural waste burning is presence of so-called brown carbon. (Clean Air For Europe) project point banned in most western European Furthermore, organic carbon aerosol towards domestic heating and, in countries, it is common practice in plays a role in the cloud droplet particular, wood burning as one of large parts of the world. formation, which once was thought the major sources contributing to to be affected only by the inorganic future loadings of particulate matter In recent years, there have been fraction of the aerosol. and black carbon in Europe. For large several examples of emissions from parts of Europe, emissions from wild and agricultural fires severely residential wood burning are poorly affecting the air quality in Europe Future perspectives regulated and combustion tends to (Saarikoski et al., 2007; Yttri et al., take place in small installations with 2007), violating particulate matter limit of the carbonaceous old technology, which promotes values and raising the carbonaceous aerosol emissions of carbonaceous aerosols. aerosol concentration by nearly one In addition, the turnover time for wood order of magnitude in certain cases. The need for understanding the stoves and fireplaces is rather long, There are also examples of how wild carbonaceous aerosol will become which hampers the shift to new and and agricultural fires have affected even more important as emissions cleaner technology. the air pollution concentrations in the thereof from developing economies Arctic (Stohl et al., 2007), and it has are expected to dramatically A number of recent studies been argued that boreal forest fires increase in the future. In addition, measuring levoglucosan, a unique could be the major source of black the relative importance of different tracer of carbonaceous aerosols carbon in the Arctic summer in years sources that emit carbonaceous from wood burning, have shown of high fire activity (Stohl et al., 2006; aerosols to the atmosphere could that it is present in the urban as Stohl et al., 2007). change dramatically in the future well as the rural environment for a as we attempt to adapt to a carbon- wide range of sites in Europe and Concern has already been expressed neutral society, replacing fossil in quite high concentrations. These regarding the consequences of large- fuel by renewable fuels. It is also include sites that were not expected scale conversion from gasoline to speculated that global warming might to be particularly influenced by this ethanol (bio-ethanol) with respect to have a similar affect by increasing source. For wood smoke particles, the ozone related health consequences. the formation of secondary organic physical and chemical characteristics E85 (85 per cent ethanol and 15 aerosols, following from atmospheric will differ with combustion conditions per cent gasoline) may increase oxidation of gas-phase organic precursors. A relatively local urban emission problem is While the switch to renewables will transformed into a regional source of oxidized improve the situation with respect to carbon dioxide, the impact on and presumably hydrophilic carbonaceous the carbonaceous particulate air pollution level is uncertain. According aerosols. The health consequences and climate to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007), close to 80 per cent effects of this oxidized material are almost of renewable energy sources are certainly dramatically different from those of combustibles, of which 97 per cent is biomass. Projections made by primary emissions. (Robinson et al., 2007) the Energy Information Administration (2008) show that the consumption

56 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 ozone-related cancer, mortality and hospitalization by as much 9 per cent in a major city such as Los Angeles, compared to 100 per cent gasoline, according to calculations made by Jacobson (2007).

Concern has also been attributed to oxidation of unburned ethanol as a source of acetaldehyde, which is a human carcinogen. Combustion of biofuels will inevitably change the organic constituent composition of the carbonaceous aerosol. While biofuels typically have higher oxygen content, more oxygenated species can be expected in the emissions.

This fraction of the carbonaceous TORRESV. aerosol is the least explored, partly because of analytical limitations, In a recent paper in Nature, Robinson et al. (2007) suggest that anthropogenic secondary and is thus an area of further organic aerosols might be more abundant than previously expected, because of oxidation investigation. Polar oxygenated of low volatility products that evaporate from primary carbonaceous aerosol with compounds are the most water atmospheric dilution. This suggests that the majority of the population is exposed to soluble species and thus potentially secondary organic aerosols, even in urban areas. cloud-condensation-nuclei-active.

Recent developments in analytical primary carbonaceous aerosol with The heterogenic nature of this source chemistry have provided evidence that atmospheric dilution. This suggests makes it difficult to predict how it will biogenic secondary organic aerosols that the majority of the population respond to climate change. (BSOA) contribute substantially (60 is exposed to secondary organic per cent) to the organic fraction of the aerosols, even in urban areas. As Attempting to reduce global warming atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol, stated by Robinson et al. (2007): by reducing black carbon emissions even in the urban environment (Szidat “A relatively local urban emission requires targeting all major sources et al., 2006). This confirms what problem is transformed into a regional but, in particular, in regions of special has long been stated: that biogenic source of oxidized and presumably concern; i.e. where emissions of black secondary organic aerosols are hydrophilic carbonaceous aerosols. carbon have a strong climate effect. one of the major missing sources The health consequences and climate Examples are the growing economies of the carbonaceous aerosol. It is effects of this oxidized material are in Asia such as those of China and hypothesized that global warming almost certainly dramatically different India, which together account for 25- causes an increase in the concentration from those of primary emissions”. 35 per cent of the world’s total black of biogenic secondary organic Primary biological aerosol particles carbon emissions (Ramanathan and aerosols, due to a rise in emissions have typically been ignored when Carmichael, 2008). Another is northern of biogenic volatile organic gaseous assessing the sources of the Eurasia in winter and spring, which is compounds that subsequently carbonaceous aerosol. However, a the major source region of the Arctic oxidize to form particulate matter few recent studies have shown that lower troposphere (Barrie et al., 1986; in the atmosphere. In addition, primary biological aerosol particles Sharma et al., 2006; Stohl et al., 2006). biogenic secondary organic aerosol may account for a substantial 30-40 Emissions within the Arctic itself formation may be further propelled per cent of the organic fraction of the should be reduced to a minimum, as by temperature- dependent reaction carbonaceous aerosol in moderately they have a disproportionately large rates, as the atmospheric global anthropogenically influenced effect. This could prove difficult, as warming increases. Arguments raised regions (Winiwarter et al., 2008(a); various anthropogenic activities are by Robinson et al. (2007) suggest that Winiwarter et al., 2008(b); Yttri et al., likely to increase as the sea ice retreats. anthropogenic secondary organic 2007). Selected primary biological An opening of the North-west Passage aerosols might also be more abundant aerosol particles may be active as would probably increase shipping than previously expected, because both cloud condensation nuclei and activity, as would further oil and gas of the oxidation of low-volatility heterogeneous ice nuclei and thus exploration, as currently seen in the products that evaporate from can contribute to cloud formation. Barents Sea.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 57 Another major challenge could be be it from the use of fossil or biofuels ments must be taken into service. boreal forest fires in Siberia (Russian or from more frequent boreal forest Obviously, such requirements are not Federation), Canada and Alaska (USA), fires, will increase the importance of in line with easy-to-operate, low-cost which are beyond human control. An mitigating their sources in the years instrumentation, but should rather be increase in the frequency of forest to come. aimed at selected supersites within fires has been postulated as one of the a network. consequences of global warming and this could further escalate the melting How could monitoring Alternatively, dedicated campaigns of sea ice and snow in the Arctic. could be conducted. This approach has During the severe air pollution event networks meet the strong advantage that it combines that affected the European Arctic in the challenge of the efforts made by research groups spring 2006—which was caused by carbonaceous aerosols with those conducted by national agricultural fires in eastern Europe— agencies. A recent example is the Stohl et al. (2007) nicely demonstrated from a multitude intensive campaigns undertaken how the disproportionate warming of of sources? by the European Monitoring and the Arctic recruited new areas in the Evaluation Programme, of which mid-latitudes as source regions of Long-term monitoring (> 10 years) of some are also co-located with the Arctic air pollution. This event could the carbonaceous aerosol is typically campaigns of the European Integrated serve as an early warning of what not available, although with a few Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate Air could happen more frequently in the exceptions (Scharma et al., 2006). Quality Interactions project. Here, future if the Arctic warms more rapidly This is partly due to the lack of specific measurements are being than the mid-latitudes. It also shows a standardized approach of how made during autumn 2008 and winter/ that the practice of agricultural waste sampling and subsequent chemical spring 2009, in order to allocate burning should be banned. analysis should be performed. Sub­ sources of carbonaceous aerosols. stantial artifacts can be introduced Similarly, there are efforts providing Crop residues are a carbon-dioxide- during sampling of the carbonaceous long-term data also in North America. neutral energy reserve that could add aerosol, which can both grossly over- Unfortunately, the global coverage a valuable supplement to the total and underestimate its organic fraction of sites measuring carbonaceous energy consumption; open field and great analytical challenges are aerosols is very limited. In particular, burning is thus a waste of resources. associated with splitting the organic the equatorial regions, Asia and the With the world population growing by fraction and the elemental carbon/ boreal regions are under-sampled. 1 per cent per year during the period black carbon fraction (McDow and Typically, limitations originate in a lack 2005-2030 (IEA, 2008) a proportional Huntzicker, 1990; Schmid et al., 2001). of domestic competence, finances increase in food production and thus Thus, data from various monitoring and infrastructures, but an increasing crop residues should follow, which networks are hardly comparable. In number of funding opportunities for could further enhance the problem Europe, effort is now being made capacity transfer might improve the of emissions from agricultural waste to create a unified protocol for how situation in the years to come. burning. For Ukraine, which has the to sample and chemically analyse highest European values for energy- carbonaceous aerosols in the rural Similarly, the analytical capabilities crop potential it has been suggested environment for the European have strongly improved during that the wheat yields have the potential Monitoring and Evaluation of the the last few years. One important to double (FAO, 2003; Ericsson and Long-range Transmission of Air improvement has been the Nilsson, 2006; Sciare et al., 2008). Pollutants in Europe/WMO Global implementation of various tracers, Thus, this is a non-negligible future Atmosphere Watch joint supersites such as 14C, levoglucosan, cellulose, source of carbonaceous aerosols. through the European Supersites sugars and sugar alcohols, in source for Atmospheric Aerosol Research apportionment studies. Continued use During the last decades in project (www.eusaar.org). of such tracers but also aerosol time- Europe and North America, the of-flight instruments will inevitably anthropogenic emissions of ammonia, In 2008, the level of sophistication improve our understanding of the nitrogen oxides and non-methane needed to allocate various sources carbonaceous aerosol. Aerosol phase hydrocarbons have been stabilized contributing to the ambient carbon­ measurements should be backed up and those of sulphur dioxide have aceous aerosol concentration is not by simultaneous measurements of been significantly reduced. This met by any air-quality monitoring the likely gas-phase precursors to has led to a relative increase in the network, at least not on a continuous the carbonaceous aerosol, including importance of carbonaceous versus basis. To do so, component speci­ biogenic volatile organic compounds, inorganic aerosol species. A further ation must be widened and more anthropogenically emitted volatile increase of carbonaceous substances, sophisticated on- and offline instru­ organic compounds, their degradation

58 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 products and compounds such as Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis and A.M. Sage, A.P. Grieshop, T.E. Lane, formaldehyde and glyoxal (Simpson et V. Oinas, 2000: Global warming in the J.R. Pierce and S.N. Pandis, 2007: Rethinking organic aerosols: al., 2007). For the latter components, twenty-first century: An alternative scenario. P. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 97, semivolatile emissions and even space-borne capacities exist, 9875-9880. photochemical aging. Science, 315, allowing the provision of regional 1259–1262. concentration patterns using a single Hoek, G., B. Brunekreef, S. Goldbohm, P. Fischer and P.A. van den Brandt, Saarikoski, S., M. Sillanpää, M. Sofiev, instrument. 2002: Association between mortality H. Timonen, K. Saarnio, K. Teinilä, and indicators of traffic-related air A. Karppinen, J. Kukkonen and pollution in the Netherlands: a cohort R. Hillamo, 2007: Chemical compo­ study. 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60 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 The impacts of atmospheric deposition to the ocean on marine Titleecosystems and climate by Robert A. Duce1, James N. Galloway2 and Peter S. Liss3

Introduction ... there are no regions of the oceans that escape the influence of human action ... this influence The transfer of chemicals from the atmosphere to the ocean will increase in the future as both the human has long had an impact on the ocean (e.g. nutrient source; pH population and the per capita use of resources influence). With the advent of the Anthropocene, the transfer of continue to grow. some chemicals has increased over natural levels and the transfer of new chemicals has commenced. This brief review examines the GESAMP reports (GESAMP, 1991; Several factors determine whether impact of the increased transfer GESAMP, 1995) tied inputs to the sea any part of the ocean will receive of certain nutrients (nitrogen, iron surface to global change (Liss and atmospheric inputs that could alter and phosphorus), toxins (lead and Duce, 1997). WMO was a founding biogeochemical processes. Three mercury) and pH regulators (carbon supporter of GESAMP and currently, important factors are the reactivity dioxide) on ocean ecosystems and through the Global Atmospheric of the material being deposited; the climate. Watch programme, is leading an residence time of the chemical in effort to develop an integrated the atmosphere; and atmospheric This topic has been investigated for database on transfer of chemicals transport patterns, relative to over 100 years, with earlier papers from the atmosphere to the ocean anthropogenic sources, i.e. where focusing on carbon dioxide (Bolin, (www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/ is the chemical emitted, how long 1960). A substantial body of work gaw/gesamp.html). A new GESAMP does it stay in the atmosphere, and began to accumulate on a number Working Group (No. 38, supported what does it do when transferred of substances in the late 1960s by WMO, the International Maritime to the ocean? These factors will and 1970s (e.g. Murozumi et al., Organization, the International be addressed in the following 1969; Goldberg, 1971). A series of Council for Science Scientific sections. reviews was produced by the UN Committee on Oceanic Research Group of Experts on the Scientific and the Swedish International The atmospheric residence time Aspects of Marine Environmental Development Cooperation Agency) of a contaminant is perhaps the Protection (GESAMP), with a major has recently been formed to address most critical factor in determining review of the topic (GESAMP, 1989; the entire issue of the atmospheric whether there will be significant Duce et al., 1991). Two additional input of chemicals to the ocean. transport of the contaminant to open ocean regions. In general, if 1 Departments of Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College the atmospheric residence time of Station, TX 77845 USA a substance is short, i.e. days, the 2 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA substance will only be transported 3 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United on the local-to-regional scale. Kingdom Substances with residence times

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 61 of weeks can be transported on the hemispheric scale, while those with residence times of more than one or two years can be transported globally.

Substances present on particles, such as most heavy metals and dust, will generally have relatively short residence times (days to a few weeks) and their removal, either by wet or dry deposition to the ocean surface, will generally be on a local- to-regional scale, particularly close to coastlines for terrestrial sources 0.00 0.20 0.50 1.00 2.00 5.00 10. 20. 50. or near major shipping lanes for ship-based sources. This is also the Figure 1— Average atmospheric dust deposition (g cm2/yr-) (from Jickells et al., 2005) case for reactive gases with short residence times. Long-lived gases such as carbon dioxide and some marine biological productivity caused such as sulphur dioxide and nitrogen of the persistent organic pollutants additional drawdown of atmospheric oxide have more than doubled as a (POPs) which have atmospheric carbon dioxide, thus affecting climate. result of anthropogenic activity and lifetimes of decades, are distributed Deserts and drylands currently nitrogen oxide emissions are expected more uniformly globally and occupy about one-third of the Earth’s to continue to increase (Dentener et their input to the ocean is largely land surface. These regions are very al., 2006). independent of the distribution of sensitive to climate and other global their sources. changes, which can possibly alter Mineral dust particles primarily have the flux of mineral particles from the diameters from 0.1 to 10 µm, with land surface to the atmosphere. The a mean diameter of ~2 µm. These Nutrient transport global atmospheric deposition of iron particles have lifetimes that allow is shown in Figure 1. them to be transported thousands to the ocean of kilometres, with subsequent Iron is present in very low concen­ deposition to the ocean (see Iron and dust trations in the ocean due to its low Figure 1). Dust production, transport solubility in oxygenated waters. and deposition to the oceans depend Iron (Fe) is an essential micronutrient Biogeochemically, it is the soluble on climatic factors that affect the for marine photosynthetic organisms iron that is used as a nutrient. The uplift, wind velocity and rainfall and in approximately 30 per cent iron content of soil dust averages (which is important for removal of of the surface ocean, much in the ~3.5 per cent, but the iron solubility particles). Human activities may Southern Ocean, it is the nutrient that from soil dust is very low, generally have increased the production of limits biological primary productivity from <1 per cent to 2 per cent in atmospheric dust by up to 50 per (Martin, 1990). The primary source seawater. However, measurement cent (Mahowald, Engelstaedter et for open ocean iron is atmospheric of the solubility of iron in mineral al., 2009). deposition, since the large iron inputs aerosol samples indicates a higher to the ocean from rivers are largely solubility, possibly due to processing The suggestion of Martin (1990) that removed to the sediments close to the of the aerosol as it is transported iron is a limiting nutrient in large areas coast (Jickells et al., 2005; Mahowald over the ocean (Jickells and Spokes, of the ocean has led to a series of et al., 2005). The iron is present 2001). mesoscale iron addition experiments primarily in terrestrial mineral dust, to test this hypothesis. As pointed largely from arid regions. Factors that control aerosol iron out by Boyd et al. (2007), these experi­ solubility include photochemistry, ments “reveal that iron supply exerts Enhanced interest in iron was especially the photo-reduction of Fe III controls on the dynamics of plankton stimulated by Martin (1990), who also to Fe II, and the acidic environment blooms, which in turn affect the suggested that, during periods in the of the mineral aerosol, particularly biogeochemical cycles of carbon, past when larger quantities of mineral during aerosol cloud processing nitrogen, silicon and sulphur and dust, and thus iron, were transported (Jickells and Spokes, 2001). We know ultimately influence the Earth climate to the ocean, the resulting increased that the emissions of acid precursors system”.

62 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Nitrogen and phosphorus the industrial age and intensive pogenic reactive nitrogen to primary agriculture. In 1860, reactive nitrogen production could approach current All organisms on Earth require deposition to most of the ocean was estimates of global nitrous oxide nitrogen but less than 1 per cent of <50 mg N m2/yr, with very few areas fixation by 2030 (Duce et al., 2008). all biological species have the ability >200 mg N m 2 /yr. Most oceanic to convert ubiquitous molecular deposition was from natural sources; In addition to nitrogen and iron, nitrogen (N2) into bio-available anthropogenic sources impacted phosphorus (P) can also be a limiting reactive nitrogen (Nr). Because of its only a few coastal regions. By 2000, nutrient in the open ocean. A recent scarcity, nitrogen is often the limiting deposition over large ocean areas review (Mahowald, Jickells et al., nutrient for croplands, forests and exceeded 200 mg N m2/yr, reaching 2009) suggests that there is a net grasslands and coastal and open >700 mg N m2/yr in many areas. loss of total phosphorus from many ocean ecosystems. Humans have, Intense deposition plumes extend land ecosystems and a net gain of in principle, solved the problem of far downwind of major population total phosphorus by the oceans the nitrogen limitation of croplands centres in Asia, India, North and South (560 Gg P/yr). Mineral aerosols are the through nitrogen fertilizer production. America, around Europe and west of dominant source of total phosphorus Since most of the nitrogen used in Africa (Figure 2) (Duce et al., 2008). on a global scale (82 per cent), with food production and all the reactive primary biogenic particles (12 per nitrogen produced by fossil fuel Atmospheric reactive nitrogen cent) and combustion sources (5 per combustion is lost to the environment, deposition is now approaching cent) important in non-dusty regions. however, there is a substantial leakage molecular nitrogen fixation as a Globally averaged anthropogenic of reactive nitrogen to unmanaged result of the dramatic increase in the oceanic inputs are estimated to systems, including terrestrial and anthropogenic component. These be ~5 per cent and 15 per cent for marine ecosystems. increasing quantities of atmospheric total phosphorus and phosphates, anthropogenic fixed nitrogen entering respectively, and may contribute as The atmosphere is the most important the open ocean could account for up to much as 50 per cent to the deposition vector distributing anthropogenic about one-third of the ocean’s external over the oligotrophic ocean, where reactive nitrogen to the global (non-recycled) nitrogen supply and up productivity may be phosphorus- environment. In the mid-1990s, to ~3 per cent of the annual new marine limited. Mahowald, Jickells et al. (2009) about 40 per cent of anthropogenic biological production, ~0.3 petagram also speculate that the increased reactive nitrogen created was emitted of carbon per year. This input could injection of anthropogenic nitrogen to the atmosphere. By 2050, it will be account for the production of up to into the ocean could also shift some 50 per cent. Thus, with the exception ~1.6 teragrams of nitrous oxide per marine regions from being nitrogen- of coastal ecosystems (where rivers year. Although ~10 per cent of the limited to phosphorus-limited. are an important reactive nitrogen ocean’s drawdown of atmospheric source) atmospheric deposition is the anthropogenic carbon dioxide may most important process supplying result from this atmospheric nitrogen Toxic metal transport anthropogenic reactive nitrogen to fertilization, leading to a decrease in unmanaged terrestrial and marine radiative forcing, up to about two-thirds to the ocean ecosystems (Galloway et al., 2008). of this amount may be offset by the increase in emissions of nitrous oxide, a Lead Not surprisingly, atmospheric reactive greenhouse gas. On the basis of future nitrogen deposition has increased scenarios for anthropogenic emissions, Large quantities of the toxic heavy substantially with the advent of the contribution of atmospheric anthro­ metal lead (Pb) have been emitted

Nr 2000 (mg N/m2/yr)

0-14 15-42 43-70 71-140 141-210 211-280 281-420 421-560 561-700 Figure 2 — Total atmospheric 701-840 841-1 120 reactive nitrogen deposition 1 121-1 400 2 1 401-2 100 in 2000 in mg m /yr(from 2 101-2 800 2 801-3 500 Duce et al., 2008)

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 63 180 column near Bermuda, mercury may Marine Dissolved Pb have decreased by a factor of about 3 160 Atmospheric Pb 2 between 1979 and 2000 (Mason and g/m

-10 140 Gill, 2005).

120 Mercury is highly toxic and there have been a number of instances of 100 its toxicity in coastal regions, starting

80 with the infamous Minamata Bay incident. While there is no evidence 60 that mercury in surface open ocean waters has caused any toxicity effects, 40 there is considerable evidence that some fish in open ocean regions 20 Pb concentration in seawater, pmo1/kg and Pb concentration in seawater, Pb concentration in the atmosphere, 10 concentrate mercury sufficiently to 0 be harmful to humans if too much 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 of that fish is consumed. Given the

Year bio-accumulation of mercury in fish, additional data on its deposition rates Figure 3 — Change in atmospheric and oceanic lead concentrations from the 1970s to and the role that humans play in them, the late 1990s near Bermuda (from Duce, 2001, using data from Huang et al., 1996 and are needed. Wu and Boyle, 1997) Carbon dioxide and to the atmosphere as a result of have been found near Hawaii. Because human activities. This lead is on lead has a short oceanic residence ocean acidification very small submicrometre particles time (~10-20 years), changes in the and can be transported thousands of atmospheric input flux showed up As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) kilometres before depositing in the relatively quickly in the surface- water rises due to human activities, the ocean. Smelters and other industrial concentrations. amount of dissolved carbon dioxide processes are important sources but in the oceans also increases. Since the primary source for atmospheric Mercury industrialization, about half the lead until recently was the combustion anthropogenic carbon dioxide emitted of fuels containing tetraethyl lead. It is now well established that to the atmosphere has dissolved in the Atmospheric deposition of anthro­ atmospheric deposition is the main oceans. Because the pH of seawater pogenic lead has resulted in a source of mercury (Hg) in the ocean (about 8.2 ± 0.3) is determined by the measurable increase in surface ocean (Mason and Scheu, 2002). Most balance between dissolved alkaline water lead concentrations. atmospheric mercury is present (basic) substances entering the as gaseous elemental mercury, oceans from land weathering and the While this is most noticeable in although gas-phase ionic mercury dissolution of atmospheric carbon the North Atlantic, it could even be is also found. The primary form of dioxide (to produce acidity or hydrogen seen 20-30 years ago in the South mercury deposited to the ocean is ions (H+) in the water), an increase in Pacific (Patterson and Settle, 1987). divalent ionic mercury (Hg2+) in rain, atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause Lead is one of the few metals for but dry deposition of gas-phase seawater to become more acidic. which atmospheric deposition has ionic mercury may also be important Concomitantly, the concentration of 2- observably affected its concentration (Fitzgerald et al., 2007). It has been carbonate (CO3 ) ions will fall, making in the surface ocean. However, estimated that, in the past 200 years, it harder for organisms to make their because of the removal of lead from the global atmospheric burden of shells of calcium carbonate (CaCO3), motor vehicle fuels, input to the ocean mercury has increased by a factor since they rely on the supersaturation has decreased significantly over the of 5 as a result of human activities, provided by the concentration of past 20-30 years (Huang et al., 1996; leading to increased inputs of mercury carbonate ions. Wu and Boyle, 1997). Figure 3 shows to the ocean over that time (Slemr and atmospheric and surface oceanic lead Langer, 1992). Human activities clearly Since the advent of major industrial­ concentrations at or near Bermuda dominate terrestrial natural sources for ization, it has been calculated that the from the early 1970s to near 2000. atmospheric mercury. Mercury input to pH of the surface oceans has decreased The decrease in atmospheric lead is the ocean may actually be decreasing by 0.1 pH units, corresponding to a reflected in a similar decrease in lead now in some regions, however: there is 30 per cent increase in hydrogen ion in the surface ocean. Similar results evidence that, in the upper-ocean water concentration. By assuming what the

64 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 level of atmospheric carbon dioxide the lower availability of carbonate Changes are also likely to occur in will be in the future, it is possible ions in a higher carbon dioxide the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon to calculate that, at the end of this world. This will add to the effect of dioxide, because the addition of acidity century, the pH of surface seawater raised seawater temperature that leads to a decrease in carbonate ions may well be lowered by 0.5 pH units, already appears to be affecting that provide seawater with much of corresponding to a 300 per cent corals in tropical waters. In addition, its natural ability to absorb carbon increase in hydrogen ion concentration microscopic phytoplankton having dioxide. Thus, less of the carbon from pre-industrial times. structures made of calcium carbonate dioxide emitted into the atmosphere (common throughout the oceans) will be taken up by the oceans, having This increase is well outside the range will also be at a disadvantage (see a potentially important feedback of natural variation indicated above Figure 4). In contrast, plankton that on global warming. Other gases and the predicted pH is probably form their structures by fixation of important for climate and air quality lower than has occurred for several carbon may well benefit from the such as dimethyl sulphide and organo- hundreds of thousands of years— availability of extra carbon from the halogens are also likely to be affected perhaps longer. Furthermore, the increase in carbon dioxide. Indeed, by pH-induced changes in micro- rate of hydrogen ion increase has this may even be the situation for organisms in near-surface seawater been much more rapid than anything some carbonate secretors according that produce these compounds. experienced by the oceans over this to a recent study (Iglesias-Rodriguez period (Royal Society, 2005). Given et al., 2008) that found evidence for Sulphur and nitrogen oxides are other this profound and rapid change in the increased calcification in one phyto­ acidic gases formed as a result of acid/base balance of seawater, what plankton species under lowered the combustion of fossil fuels. Like are the implications for biological life, seawater pH. Any effects are likely carbon dioxide, they also dissolve marine ecology and biogeochemical to be most pronounced in the in water to form acidic solutions— feedbacks, including the very ability of Southern Oceans, where the low indeed, they are generally stronger the oceans to absorb anthropogenic water temperature leads to enhanced acid formers. Doney et al. (2007) carbon dioxide? dissolution of carbon dioxide. Clearly, report a modelling exercise to assess organisms will respond and/or adapt the relative importance of carbon Corals are an obvious example of in different ways to the lowered pH dioxide versus sulphur and nitrogen widespread calcium-carbonate- so that increased acidity will almost oxides and conclude that, for the secreting organisms and they will certainly lead to changes in marine global oceans, carbon dioxide greatly very likely be adversely affected by biodiversity. outweighs the other two oxides.

Geo-engineering schemes to moderate climate change directly (e.g. mirrors a b c in space, injection of particles into the stratosphere) will do nothing to solve the ocean acidification problem. The only realistic way to do that is to decrease the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. Although the physical chemistry behind the role of carbon dioxide in d e f seawater is straightforward, the effect of decreasing pH on biological life in the ocean and feedbacks to the global system are far from clear. Because of this, it is a subject in need of urgent further study; indeed, several major research programmes are currently in progress or will soon be initiated.

Conclusion Figure 4 — Scanning electron microscope pictures of coccolithophorids grown under low and high carbon dioxide conditions, corresponding to carbon dioxide levels of The atmospheric transport of about 300 ppmv ((a)-(c)) and 780-850 ppmv ((d)-(f)). Note the difference in the coccolith chemicals to the ocean has been structure (including malformations) and in the degree of calcification of cells grown at investigated for over a century. normal and elevated carbon dioxide levels (from Riebesell et al., 2000). With time, we have found that the

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 65 atmosphere is a critical source of GESAMP, 1989: The atmospheric input Mason, R. P. and G.A. Gill, 2005: nutrients, toxins and acids. We have of trace species to the world ocean, Mercury in the marine environment. Rep. Stud., GESAMP 38, 111 pp. In: Mercury: Sources, Measurements, also found that there no region of Cycles and Effects (M.B. Parsons and the oceans escapes the influence of GESAMP, 1991: Global changes and the J.B. Percival (Eds.)). Mineralogical human action and that this influence air/sea exchange of chemicals, Rep. Association of Canada, 2005; Vol. 34, will increase in the future as both the Stud., GESAMP 48, 69 pp. Chapter 10. human population and the per capita GESAMP, 1995: The sea-surface Mason, R. P. and G.R. Sheu, 2002: Role of use of resources continue to grow. microlayer and its role in global the ocean in the global mercury cycle, change, Rep. Stud., GESAMP 59, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 16 (http:// 76 pp. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001440).

Goldberg, E.D., 1971: Atmospheric dust, Murozumi, N., T.J. Chow and C.C. Patterson, References the sedimentary cycle and man, 1969: Chemical concentrations of Comments in Geophysics: Earth Sci. pollutant lead aerosols, terrestrial 1, 117-132. dusts and sea salts in Greenland Bolin, B., 1960: On the exchange of carbon and Antarctic snow strata, Geochim. dioxide between the atmosphere and Huang, S., R. Arimoto and K. Rahn, Cosmochim. Acta, 33, 1247-1294. the sea, Tellus, 12, 274-281. 1996: Changes in atmospheric lead and other pollution-derived trace Patterson, C.C. and D. Settle, 1987: Boyd, P.W., T. Jickells et al., 2007: elements at Bermuda, J. Geophys. Review of data on eolian fluxes of Mesoscale iron enrichment Res., 101, 21033-21040. industrial and natural lead to the experiments 1993-2005: Synthesis lands and seas in remote regions on and future directions, Science, 315, Iglesias-Rodriguez, M.D. et al., 2008: a global scale, Marine Chemistry, 22, 612, doi: 10.1126/science.1131669. Phytoplankton calcification in a high- 137-1620.

CO2 world, Science, 320, 336-240. Dentener, F., J. Drevet et al., 2006: Riebesell, U., I. Zondervan et al., 2000: Nitrogen and sulfur deposition Jickells, T.D. and L. Spokes, 2001: Reduced calcification of marine on regional and global scales: A Atmospheric iron inputs to the plankton in response to increased

multimodel evaluation, Global ocean, in Biogeochemistry of Iron in atmospheric CO2, Nature, 407, Biogeochem. Cycles, 20, GB4003, Seawater (D. Turner and K.A. Hunter 634-637. doi:10.1029/2005GB002672. (Eds.)), John Wiley, Hoboken, New Jersey, 85–121. Royal Society, 2005: Ocean acidification Doney, S.C., N. Mahowald et al., due to increasing atmospheric 2007: Impact of anthropogenic Jickells, T., Z.S. An et al., 2005: Global carbon dioxide. Policy Document atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur iron connections between desert 12/05, Royal Society, London, 60 pp. deposition on ocean acidification dust, ocean biogeochemistry and and the inorganic carbon system, climate, Science, 308, 67–71. Slemr, F. and E. Langer, 1992: Increase in Proc. National Academy of Sciences, global atmospheric concentrations 104, 14580-14585. Liss, P.S. and R.A. Duce (Eds.), 1997: of mercury inferred from the The Sea Surface and Global Change, measurement over the Atlantic Duce, R.A., 2001: Atmospheric input of Cambridge University Press, 519 pp. Ocean, Nature, 355, 434-437. pollutants, Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, Academic Press, New York, Mahowald, N., A.R. Baker et al., 2005: Wu, J. and E.A. Boyle, 1997: Lead in 192-201. Atmospheric global dust cycle and the western North Atlantic Ocean: iron inputs to the ocean, Global Completed response to leaded Duce, R.A., P.S. Liss et al., 1991: Biogeochem. Cycles, 19, GB4025, gasoline phaseout, Geochim. The atmospheric input of trace doi:10.1029/2004GB002402. Cosmochim. Acta, 61, 3279-3283. species to the world ocean, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 5, 193-259. Mahowald, N., S. Engelstaedter et al., 2009: Atmospheric iron deposition: Duce, R.A., J. LaRoche et al., 2008: global distribution, variability Impacts of atmospheric nitrogen and human perturbations, Annual on the open ocean, Science 320, Review of Marine Science, 1, 893-897. 248-278.

Fitzgerald, W.F., C.H. Lamborg and Mahowald N., T.D. Jickells et al., C.R. Hammerschmidt, 2007: Marine 2009: The global distribution of biogeochemical cycling of mercury, atmospheric phosphorus sources, Chem. Rev., 107, 641-662. concentrations and deposition rates and anthropogenic impacts, Global Galloway, J.N., A.R. Townsend et al., Biogeochemical Cycles (in press). 2008: Transformation of the nitrogen cycle: recent trends, questions and Martin, J.H., 1990: Glacial-interglacial

potential solutions, Science, 320, CO2 change: The iron hypothesis, 889-892. Paleoceanography, 5, 1-13.

66 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Fifty years ago ...

the last of the forms containing the relatively modest budgets, thanks meteorological observations has been to the generous invitations from our received at the WMO Secretariat, thus Members, the ability and unselfishness completing the collection of data which of our experts and to hard work. constitutes a unique contribution to Most of the latter was the result of future developments in the science of unflagging devotion to duty on the meteorology. part of the Secretariat staff under the A. Viaut, President leadership of the late G. Swoboda— D.A. Davies, Secretary-General who was responsible for ensuring that the vital transition from the former Contents IMO was made without a hitch— and subsequently under that of the The January 1959 Bulletin carried dynamic D.A. Davies ... articles entitled “WMO and the development of meteorology”, Fortunately, all this effort was not “Meteorological problems in atomic in vain. The many achievements of energy”, “An instrument for counting which WMO has every right to be local lightning flashes”, “World proud include the following: meteorology: retrospect and prospect” A message to meteorologists and “New British ocean weather ship”. • Establishment of the Technical At the close of the International It also covered the second session Regulations which—with the Geophysical Year (IGY), we would like of the Commission for Agricultural barometer and radiosonde to express, on behalf of the World Meteorology, collaboration with comparisons—contribute to Meteorological Organization, thanks other international organizations, the universal standardization of and appreciation to all meteorological International Geophysical Year, meteorological procedures and services of the world for their whole- activities of regional associations and practices; hearted collaboration in this vast technical commissions and technical project, which provides yet another assistance. • Publication of a large number of demonstration of the international spirit Technical Notes and the Cloud for which meteorologists have long been Atlas, the success of which has renowned. A special tribute must be WMO and the exceeded all our expectations; paid to the thousands of meteorological observers throughout the world upon development of • The continuous improvement whom the IGY imposed many additional meteorology of the observing networks and duties. We are confident that the same transmission channels, whose enthusiastic support will continue until Achievements of efficiency and regularity could lasting importance serve as an example to other branches of science which are A fuller version of “Fifty years ago” is The immense tasks ... placed passing from the laboratory stage available in the WMO Bulletin online: http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/ before the Organization have been to the synoptic stage long after bulletin_en/ successfully carried out, in spite of meteorology;

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 67 • International cooperation of such a step, which would increase their cause and their relationship with in arid zone problems and the importance and prestige of the the development of the wind field, up the development of water Organization. The final decision lies to at least the level of the tropopause. resources; with Third Congress. Moreover, it is possible to confirm beyond all doubt the existence of a • The large-scale participation in … I think that the results obtained layer with a mean thickness of 7 km, the International Geophysical by WMO are such as to convince ... lying 2 km above the tropopause, Year programme, including the Members that the best possible use in which wind speed decreases creation of a Meteorological Data has been made of the contributions considerably and the temperature Centre in Geneva; which they pay. … F.W. Reichelderfer variations are very small: a layer, [has] pointed out quite rightly that therefore, where the conditions, • Ever-increasing participation in “they [meteorologists] have of free from clouds and probably of the United Nations Technical necessity practised their profession turbulence, are ideal for long-distance Assistance Programme. with minimum facilities and meagre flights by the turbo-propelled aircraft information and data—facilities of tomorrow. Thus, every day brings that would be regarded as less than new confirmation of the notion of the All these achievements are in harmony reasonable standards in other physical worldwide interdependence of all with the aims of our Organization, one sciences”. This spirit of economy— atmospheric phenomena. of the most important of which is to which is a sort of professional “further the application of meteorology characteristic of meteorologists— The charts prepared by the to aviation, shipping, agriculture and has resulted, when transferred to the meteorological services formerly other human activities”. More special international level, in WMO being one covered areas of varying, but often attention should perhaps be given in of the best investments amongst the limited, extent. Today, the drawing the near future to another or our aims, international organizations. of hemispheric charts will have to namely “to encourage research and become a part of the daily work, at training in meteorology and to assist in Problems for future study least in a certain number of services; coordinating the international aspects planetary charts will, in their turn, of such research and training”. We can justifiably be proud of the soon be introduced into routine results already obtained, but we must practice. New spheres of activity ensure that this very praiseworthy desire for economy does not lead Parallel with the increase in the In the meantime, the Organization to harmful cheese-paring. To use an intensity of meteorological work, has had to tackle some entirely new anatomical metaphor, our Organization there is also an expansion in its scope. and urgent problems such as those can be slim but it must not run the risk Observations of radiation, ozone, the connected with the use of atomic of becoming rickety. chemical composition of the air and energy and the introduction of radioactivity, which hitherto were commercial jet aircraft. Thanks to the This is particularly important at the not very widespread, are acquiring cooperation of those Members which moment, for meteorology is now increasing importance; they are no have willingly lent the services of undergoing an evolution which longer made only at isolated stations, experts in these fields, the Executive with the passage of time may one but also in organized networks. This Committee has been able to take day be considered as a revolution. development has been speeded up by appropriate and effective action. … The traditional charts showing the the International Geophysical Year and isobars, fronts and air masses, used it would be regrettable if these new The collaboration of our Organization exclusively until quite recently, are networks were to be closed down. has been solicited in another important now supplemented by contour charts field, that of hydrology, because it has which may in turn be partly replaced by Application of new become apparent that there is need tropopause and streamline charts. Our for intergovernmental coordination knowledge of the general circulation, techniques of hydrological observations and jet streams and the structure of the investigations throughout the world. tropopause is constantly growing. New techniques are on the point of The Economic and Social Council of Study of the upper winds between making a valuable contribution to the United Nations has recommended 20 and 40 km north of the Tropic of this mass of data. It is still too early that the responsibilities of WMO be Cancer show, for example, that in to make a complete inventory of extended to cover a large part of this addition to the seasonal variations in all that meteorology may expect to field. … a preliminary inquiry carried the easterlies, there are also variations obtain from the extra-atmospheric out by the Secretariat has shown that in speed and direction which merit observations made by means of many Members would be in favour closer study in order to determine rockets or artificial satellites. We

68 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 can already imagine, however, that Geophysical Year data. Immense Sir Gilbert will be remembered the measurements of the Earth’s benefits for humanity may be principally for his outstanding work albedo which these observations expected from this, the most in establishing correlations between include, will be of the greatest important scientific enterprise of all meteorological phenomena in different value to meteorologists. The first time. All meteorologists are certainly parts of the world which formed the photographs taken over vast areas of prepared to make every possible basis for his method of forecasting clouds also open up very encouraging effort to ensure that these benefits are the course of the Indian monsoon. perspectives. acquired without too much delay. He was also responsible for initiating some of the early investigations into The transmission and application There is a proverb—Union is strength. atmospheric electricity and the upper of this immense accumulation of For many years meteorologists air. In 1924 he succeeded Sir Napier information raises considerable throughout the world, intent on Shaw as professor of meteorology problems, for which solutions can problems relating to the atmosphere, at the Imperial College of Science only be found by ever-expanding which recognizes no political and Technology in London where international coordination which our frontiers, have shared the same he remained until his retirement in Organization alone is able to ensure, preoccupations. In this undisputed 1934. During this period he gave provided that it has the necessary field of understanding, the human much attention to research work on means. All meteorological services contacts happily made possible by the formation of clouds. should preferably possess their our meetings lead to the development own transmission networks. They of ever closer links of friendship. It is For more than 20 years Sir Gilbert also would then be sure of being able to this fraternal unity, transcending all played a very active part in the work obtain directly and with the least our changes of fortune, which offers of the IMO. During much of this time possible delay the basic synoptic data the greatest encouragement in the he was a member of the International essential for the regular operation face of the immense tasks which are Meteorological Committee and also of their forecasting services, which already known and those which are served on a number of commissions have to provide the information still to come. dealing with many different aspects needed for a large number of human of meteorology. activities dependent on changes in A. Viaut, President of WMO meteorological conditions. After a long and distinguished career News and notes which brought him many honours Sir The progress which is being made Gilbert pursued his research work in in numerical weather forecasting Death of Sir Gilbert Walker retirement with as much enthusiasm has led to the increasing use by as ever. On his 90th birthday he meteorological services of electronic It is with regret that we have learned was reported to be collaborating computers. The efficiency of these of the death of Sir Gilbert Walker, in the writing of a textbook on the machines is to a great extent linked C.S.I., F.R.S., on 4 November 1958 at aerodynamics of the flute. with the possibility of satisfying their the age of 90 years. Sir Gilbert was huge appetite for fresh observations. educated at St Paul’s School, London, This new obligation makes it more than and Trinity College, Cambridge, ever essential to keep the international where his mathematical interests meteorological telecommunications were mainly in the fields of dynamics plans up to date. and electromagnetism. It was only in 1903 when he became director- One of the heaviest and most urgent general of observatories in India that tasks faced by meteorologists is he became closely associated with the processing of the International meteorology.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 69 ObituaryTitle

Kenneth Potter limitation to water resources Ken had more than a professional assessment and development interest in water; he was enthusiastic in Guyana and throughout the about water sports and none more so Kenneth Evan Duke Potter, Director English-speaking Caribbean was the than rowing. He was founder member of the Guyana Hydrometeorological inadequacy of trained hydrological of the Georgetown rowing club. He Service from 1965 to 1975 and technicians. He accordingly sought enjoyed sailing on the Demerara Permanent Representative of Guyana the establishment of institutionalized River and occasionally ventured out with WMO from 1967 to 1979, died in training similar to that being done to the Caribbean Sea and around the Sydney, Australia, on 10 June 2008. for meteorological technicians in islands. the region. He became the driving Ken was born in Georgetown, Guyana, force behind the creation of the In 1980 Ken resigned his post in on 14 June 1935. He received his Caribbean Operational Hydrology Guyana and settled with Lesley in secondary school education at Institute (COHI), set up in 1980 with Adelaide, Australia. From 1981 to Queen’s College in Georgetown, then WMO sponsorship alongside the 1992 he worked with a consulting obtained a Guyana scholarship to Caribbean Meteorological Institute firm on a broad range of hydrology study civil engineering at Aberdeen (CMI) in Barbados. and hydraulic engineering projects in University in Scotland. He obtained South Australia. In 1993 he opened his BSc in 1958 and a postgraduate In 1968, Ken met Lesley, a young his own consultancy specializing in Diploma in Engineering Hydrology Australian graduate student in flood and drainage problems. from Imperial College, London geography, who was undertaking University, in 1963. fieldwork in Guyana as part of her Ken was highly respected for his work PhD programme at McGill University both in the Caribbean and in South Ken began his professional career in in Montreal. In 1971, Lesley returned Australia. His family and many friends the Drainage and Irrigation Department to take up a position at the University describe him as a gentleman, quiet and held various engineering posts of Guyana. She and Ken were married and kind. It was a pleasure to have between 1958 and 1965. When the in Georgetown in 1973. known him and worked with him and Guyana Hydrometeorological Service a privilege to have been his friend. was created in 1965 as a centralized In 1975, Ken was appointed Chief Division of the Ministry of Works Works Officer in the Ministry of Works Our thoughts are with his wife Lesley and Hydraulics, Ken was appointed and Transport with responsibility for and his sister Ann. Chief Hydrometeorological Officer— coordinating and overseeing the work a position he held for nine years. of the eight Technical Divisions. John Bassier Under his direction, the Hydromet Service developed rapidly into a In 1980, Ken served as a WMO well-coordinated and dynamic entity consultant to start the operational with a solid core of professional phase of the COHI project. Several personnel. years later COHI was amalgamated with CMI to create the Caribbean Early in his Hydromet mandate, Institute for Meteorology and Ken recognized that a significant Hydrology.

70 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 News from the WMO TitleSecretariat

Visits of the Secretary-General

The Secretary-General, Michel Jarraud, recently made official visits to a number of Member countries as briefly reported below. He wishes to place on record his gratitude to those Members for the kindness and hospitality extended to him.

The Netherlands

On 29 September 2008 the Secretary- General visited Amsterdam at the invitation of the President of the European Meteorological Society (EMS), to participate in the opening Banjul, The Gambia, October 2008 — Mr Jarraud is greeted by the Secretary of State for of the 8th Annual Meeting of the EMS Justice, Ms Marie Saine Firdaws. To her right are Mr Ousman Jah, Head of the Social and the 7th European Conference on Sciences Department, University of The Gambia, and Mr A. Ndiaye, Director, WMO Applied Meteorology. Mr Jarraud gave Regional Office for Africa. a presentation entitled “The evolving role of WMO in climate change number of key environmental reports, President of the Republic of The adaptation”, which was followed by including the Fourth Assessment Gambia, for discussions on sustainable questions and lively discussion. Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental development. He also visited the Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Central Weather Forecast Office at The Gambia which WMO has co-sponsored since Banjul International . 1988. Mr Jarraud underscored the At the invitation of the Government, importance of rapidly advancing United Nations New York made through HE the Hon. Momodou both the mitigation of greenhouse- Cham, Secretary of State for Forestry gas emissions and adaptation to the The Secretary-General attended and the Environment, the Secretary- local effects of climate change. He the second 2008 regular session General visited The Gambia to welcomed the The Gambia climate and retreat of the United Nations participate in the The Gambia Climate change initiative and highlighted the System Chief Executives Board for Change Forum, which opened in Kololi urgent need for all Africa to address Coordination (CEB), chaired by the UN on 6 October 2008. the climate change issue. Secretary-General at United Nations headquarters in New York, on 24 and Among the main session objectives The Secretary-General met with 25 October 2008. The session focused was enhancing awareness on a HE Ajaratou Isatou Njie-Saidy, Vice on climate change, staff security and

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 71 safety, the financial crisis, the global energy challenge and the customary briefing on political, economic and social issues. Regarding climate change, CEB reviewed progress in the development of the common United Nations system approach, in which WMO, jointly with UNESCO, plays a key convening role in coordinating efforts to enhance climate knowledge, including climate system and impacts monitoring, assessment, predictions and early warnings on climate extremes. Climate knowledge supports five main focus areas: adaptation, mitigation, REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), technology Beijing, China, 28 October 2008 — Award of 53rd IMO Prize to Qin Dahe: Chinese Vice transfer , capacity building and Premier, Hui Liangyu (centre) with, to his right, WMO President, Alexander Bedritsky; financing. to his left, WMO Secretary-General, Michel Jarraud and Zheng Guoguang, Permanent Representative of China with WMO; far right, Qin Dahe; and, far left, Elena Manaenkova, CEB reviewed the draft report Director, WMO Department of Cabinet and External Relations prepared by conveners of all areas through the High Level Committee on Programmes. The resulting paper an exchange of views on issues well as WMO’s activities in support of entitled “Acting on climate change: the of common interest, in particular its Members in the areas of climate UN delivering as one” was adopted climate change and the role of the change adaptation and natural disaster for submission to Member States at China Meteorological Administration prevention and mitigation. the UN Climate Change Conference (CMA), the enhancement of global in Poznan in December 2008, as work cooperation and collaboration Egypt continued toward the development of between China and WMO. a common framework for presentation On 9 November 2008, the Secretary- at the meeting of the Conference of Messrs Bedritsky and Jarraud General travelled to Alexandria to Parties (COP) to the United Nations visited CMA and were briefed by the participate in the Ninth International Framework Convention on Climate Permanent Representative of China Conference on Dryland Development: Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen with WMO, Zheng Guoguang, on the Sustainable Development in the in 2009. achievements and the progress made Drylands—Meeting the Challenge of in various areas, including satellite Global Climate Change. The session CEB members expressed their meteorology, disaster risk reduction was organized by the International continuing commitment to collective and the key contributions of CMA Dryland Development Commission. efforts on climate change. to the recent hosting by China of the 29th Summer Olympics and the The Secretary-General gave a China Paralympics Games. presentation entitled “Climate change and drylands: Impacts on The President of WMO and the United Arab Emirates natural resources and the role of Secretary-General visited China from WMO”, focusing on the key issue 27 to 29 October 2008, to present the Following a special invitation of the of ensuring long-term agricultural 53rd International Meteorological World Economic Forum, the Secretary- productivity while conserving land, Organization (IMO) Prize to Mr Qin General visited Dubai between 7 and water and biodiversity. Mr Jarraud Dahe and the 2008 WMO Research 9 November 2008, to participate in the underscored that sustainable Award for Young Scientists to Summit on the Global Agenda. development of regions affected by Ms Sun Ying. drought and desertification can only Mr Jarraud took part in a number of come about through concerted efforts During their visit, they met with discussions in which he highlighted based on a sound understanding of HE Mr Hui Liangyu, Vice-Premier the role of WMO in natural hazard the different factors contributing to of the State Council of China, for risk reduction and climate change, as land degradation.

72 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 During his visit, Mr Jarraud met with the Minister for Panama Canal Affairs, Mr Dani Kuzniecky; the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Ricardo Duran; the Manager of Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica SA (ETESA), Mr Isaac Castillo; the Director of the Spanish State Agency of Meteorology and Permanent Representative of Spain with WMO, Mr Francisco Cadarso; and the Hydrometeorology Manager of ETESA and Permanent Representative of Panama with Panama, November 2008 — The Secretary-General participated in the Sixth Conference WMO, Ms Luz Graciela M. de of Directors of Iberoamerican Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Calzadilla.

Poland

Algeria The objectives of the Conference of The Secretary-General visited Poznan, Directors are the strengthening of Poland, from 9 to 11 December 2008, The Secretary-General visited Algiers the institutional capacity of National to attend the United Nations Climate on 19 November 2008 to participate Meteorological and Hydrological Change Conference (14th session in the African Conference of Ministers Services (NMHSs), enhancement of of the Conference of the Parties in Charge of Environment on Climate education and training of personnel to the United Nations Framework Change for Post-2012. The meeting and improvement of operational and Convention on Climate Change was a high-level preparatory event for management capacities. Through (UNFCCC)). He hosted a working lunch the COP 14 of the UNFCCC in Poznan, horizontal cooperation, the NMHSs for 30 permanent representatives Poland, in December 2008. are able to optimize resources, and other senior representatives share experiences and integrate of NMHSs, which provided an Addressing the meeting, Mr Jarraud meteorological and hydrological opportunity for free interaction and highlighted the importance of development across two WMO exchange of views among on the developing African climate change Regions. ongoing conference. strategic plans, which will contribute to better prepare the continent for the impacts of climate change in the 21st century, including an effective regional framework for all the relevant national and regional climate change programmes, with a view to identify shortcomings and to remedy them in the African context, in particular by reinforcing and mobilizing the relevant structures and institutions.

The conference was also an opportunity for discussions with ministers and executive heads of international organizations present at the session.

Panama Poznan, Poland, 10 December 2008 — The United Nations convened the side event “Acting on climate change: the UN delivering as one“ (from left to right): Anna Tibaijuka, The Secretary-General visited Panama Executive Director, UN-HABITAT; Kandeh Yumkella, Director-General, UNIDO; Michel to address the Sixth Conference Jarraud, Secretary-General, WMO; Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General; Achim Steiner, of Directors of Iberoamerican Executive Director, UNEP; Sha Zukang, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Meteorological and Hydrological Social Affairs; Katherine Sierra, Vice-President for Sustainable Development, World Services (27-29 November 2008). Bank.

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 73 Mr Jarraud had a meeting with Staff matters Office, Cabinet and External Rela­ Elisabeth Lipiatou and Lars Mueller of tions Department, on 20 October the European Commission to discuss Appointments 2008 the participation of the Commission in World Climate Conference-3 (WCC- Barbara J. RYAN: Departures 3) (August/September 2009). Director, WMO Space Programme Dusan HRCEK, WMO Representa­ He also participated in a round table Office, WMO tive for Europe, Development and that was organized for members of Integrated Global Regional Activities Department, the United Nations Chief Executives Observing System retired on 16 October 2008. Board for Coordination (CEB), which Branch, Observing was chaired by the Secretary-General and Information Systems Inés BRÜLHART, Translator/Reviser/ of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon. Department, on 2 October 2008 Interpreter, Linguistic Services and Ten members of CEB participated in a Publishing Branch, Programme round table that was organized for the Lisa-Anne JEPSEN: Support Services Department, purpose of demonstrating the concept Administrative retired on 30 November 2008. of “UN: delivering as one”. Mr Jarraud Officer, Secretariat highlighted WCC-3 and its expected of the Intergovern­ Jean-Baptiste MIGRAINE, Junior outcomes, which are aligned with the mental Panel on Professional Officer, Disaster Risk objectives of the UNFCCC. Climate Change, on Reduction Division, Disaster Risk 1 October 2008 Reduction and Service Delivery The Secretary-General gave a press Branch, Weather and Disaster Risk conference and a number of interviews Michael I. BERECHREE: Aircraft Reduction Services Department, left with media representatives, in which he Meteorological WMO on 30 November 2008 at the underlined the importance of climate Data Relay end of his three-year assignment. information and prediction and the Technical need to fill gaps in data observation Coordinator, Antonio BELDA, Printing Operator, networks, especially in developing WMO Observing Linguistic Services and Publishing countries. A press release was issued Systems Division, Branch, Programme Support Ser­ in the six UN official languages and WMO Integrated vices Department, left WMO on 31 was widely disseminated. Global Observing October 2008. System Branch, Observing and Mr Jarraud held a meeting with the Information Systems Department, Anniversaries Deputy Minister of Environment Mr on 1 November 2008 Ales Kutak of the Czech Republic, Olga BERNASCHINA, Terminology which will have the next European Anna Christina KUHN: Junior and Reference Clerk, Linguistic Union presidency. Among the Professional Officer, Global Climate Services and Publishing Branch, proposals was the possibility of Observing System Programme Support Service the country hosting a preparatory Joint Planning Department: 20 years on 2 October WCC 3 meeting, and of support in Office, WMO 2008 ensuring high-level participation in Integrated Global the Conference. Observing System Azeddine ABDERRAFI, Digital Branch, Observing Reproduction Clerk, Printing and Information and Electronic Publishing Unit, Systems Linguistic Services and Publishing Department, on 1 October 2008 Branch, Programme Support Services Department: 25 years on Promotions 1 November 2008

Anushia MANOHARAN: Finance Yvette BURNET DENIS, Officer (salaries), Finance Senior Secretary, Hydrological Division, Resource Management Forecasting and Water Resources Department, on 1 October 2008 Division, Hydrology and Water Resources Branch, Climate and Melissa SERANTES: Clerk, Water Department: 20 years on Communication and Public Affairs 1 November 2008.

74 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 Recent WMO publications New books received and the international context in which climate change is experienced and Technical Regulations negotiated. It analyses the elements Volume II— Aerosol Pollution of an appropriate international policy Meteorological service Impact on response, and the challenges that face for international Precipitation: Australia in playing its proportionate air navigation A Scientific Review part in that response. The Garnaut (WMO-No. 49) Climate Change Review considers what [ A - C - E - F - R - S ] policies the international community CD-ROM should adopt in responding to climate 2008; 175 pp. Zev Levin, William R. Cotton (Eds.) change. ISBN 978-92-63-10049-8 Springer (2009) ISBN 978-1-4020-8689-2 Price: CHF 70 xxi, 386 pp. Price: 149.95 €/US$ 229 Large-Scale Aerodrome reports Disasters and forecasts— Prediction, Control a users’ handbook to and Mitigation the codes One of the factors that could contribute (WMO-No. 782) to precipitation modification is aerosol [ E - F - R ] pollution from various sources such 2008; 81 pp. as urban air pollution and biomass ISBN 978-92-63-10782-4 burning. Natural and anthropogenic Edited by Mohamed Gad-el-Hak Cambridge University Press (2008). Price: CHF 20 changes in atmospheric aerosols ISBN 978-0-521-87293-5. might have important implications xxiii + 576 pp. From weather for precipitation by influencing the Price: £ 100/US$ 200 gods to modern hydrological cycle, which in turn could meteorology—a feed back to climate changes. philatelic journey (WMO-No. 1023) This book reviews our knowledge of This volume presents an integrated [ E ] the relationship between aerosols review of the broad research field of 2008; 111 pp. and precipitation reaching the Earth’s large-scale disasters and establishes ISBN 978-92-63-11023-7 surface. a common framework for predicting, Price: CHF 40 controlling and managing both man- made and natural disasters. There is Executive Council, 60th session— The Garnaut Climate a particular focus on events caused Abridged final report Change Review by weather and climate change. Other with resolutions topics include air pollution, tsunamis, (WMO-No. 1032) disaster modelling, the use of remote- [ A - C - E - F - R - S ] sensing and the logistics of disaster CD-ROM management. 2008; vi + 156 pp. ISBN 978-92-63-11032-9 Ross Garnaut Price: CHF 16 Cambridge University Press (2008). ISBN 978-0-521-74444-7. Expert Meeting to Evaluate Skill of xiv + 634 pp. Price: US$ 60 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Forecasts (Boulder, Colorado, USA, 24-25 April 2008) (WMO/TD-No. 1455) The Garnaut Climate Change Review [ E ] examines the impacts of climate 2008; 26 pp. change on the Australian economy, Price: CHF 30 the costs of adaptation and mitigation,

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 75 Calendar

Date Title Place 11–15 January American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2009 (co-sponsored) Phoenix, USA 12–14 January Twelfth session of the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Miami, USA Prediction 19–20 January WMO Consultative Meetings of High-level Policy on Satellite Matters—ninth Port of Spain, Trinidad and session Tobago 19–21 January TIGGE Limited Area Modelling (LAM) Workshop Bologna, Italy 19–23 January Twenty-first session of the GEWEX Scientific Steering Group Irvine, USA 21–22 January Sixty-first session of the WMO Bureau Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago 26–30 January Joint GEOmon/IMECC Meeting Geneva 26–28 January Scientific Planning Meeting for a GLOBE Student Research Campaign on Climate Geneva Change 2–4 February 2009 Meeting of Presidents of Technical Commissions Geneva 2–5 February Meeting on the Updating the GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-92) Geneva 4–6 February Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)—RA III Meeting Brasilia, Brazil of Regional Subproject Implementation Team 5–6 February RARS Implementation Group—third meeting and IGDDS Implementation Group— Tokyo, Japan third meeting 9–10 February Research Task Team—second meeting Geneva 9–20 February Training on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting at RSMC Tropical Cyclone- New Delhi, India New Delhi (RSMC) 11–13 February EC Working Group on Climate and related Weather, Water and Environmental Geneva Matters—second session 16–19 February Meeting of the CAgM Expert Team on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Beijing, China Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Rangelands, Forestry and Fisheries 16–20 February CHy Advisory Working Group—first session Geneva 23–25 February International Conference on Challenges and Opportunities in Agrometeorology New Delhi, India 26–28 February Meeting of the CAgM Implementation/Coordination Team on Support Systems New Delhi, India for Agrometeorological Services 2–6 March WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones—thirty-sixth session Muscat, Oman 9–13 March Third THORPEX International Science Symposium Monterey, USA 16–18 March EC Working Group on WMO Strategic and Operational Planning—second Geneva meeting 16–18 March International Organizing Committee for WCC-3—third Meeting Bonn, Germany 23 March–3 April RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and Warning and Public Weather Miami, USA Services 23–25 March Meeting of the Management Group of the Commission for Climatology Geneva 1–3 April CCl Management Group Geneva 24 April-1 May Regional Association IV—fifteenth session Nassau, Bahamas 11–14 May Training Workshop on Integrated Flood Management , Iran 18-21 May International Workshop on Content, Communication and Use of Toowoomba Agrometeorological Products and Services for Sustainable Agriculture 3–12 June Executive Council—sixty-first session Geneva 31 August– World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) Geneva 4 September

76 | WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 The World Meteorological

Organization As of 31 December 2008

WMO is a specialized agency of the Services serving in an individual Elected members of the Executive United Nations. Its purposes are: capacity; it meets once a year to Council supervise the programmes approved M.A. Abbas (Egypt) • To facilitate worldwide coop- by Congress. A.C. Anuforom (Nigeria)* eration in the establishment O.M.L. Bechir (Mauritania) of networks of stations for the R.C. Bhatia (India) making of meteorological obser- The six regional associations P.-E. Bisch (France) vations as well as hydrological are each composed of Members Y. Boodhoo (Mauritius) and other geophysical observa- whose task it is to coordinate mete- S.A. Bukhari (Saudi Arabia) tions related to meteorology, and orological, hydrological and related F. Cadarso González (Spain) to promote the establishment and activities within their respective M. Capaldo (Italy) maintenance of centres charged Regions. S.-K. Chung (Republic of Korea)* with the provision of meteorologi- H.H. Ciappesoni (Argentina) cal and related services; G. Foley (Australia)* • To promote the establishment and The eight technical commissions W. Gamarra Molina (Peru) maintenance of systems for the are composed of experts designated D. Grimes (Canada) rapid exchange of meteorological by Members and are responsible for S.W.B. Harijono (Ms) (Indonesia) and related information; studying meteorological and hydrologi- J.L. Hayes (USA)* • To promote standardization of cal operational systems, applications T. Hiraki (Japan) meteorological and related obser- and research. J. Hirst (United Kingdom)* vations and to ensure the uniform W. Kusch (Germany) publication of observations and L. Makuleni (Ms) (South Africa) statistics; Executive Council J.R. Mukabana (Kenya) • To further the application of mete- President M. Ostojski (Poland) orology to aviation, shipping, water A.I. Bedritsky (Russian Federation) M.M. Rosengaus Moskinsky (Mexico) problems, agriculture and other First Vice-President P. Taalas (Finland)* human activities; A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of F. Uirab (Namibia) • To promote activities in opera- Iran) K.S. Yap (Malaysia) tional hydrology and to further Second Vice-President G. Zheng (China) close cooperation between T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean * acting member Meteorological and Hydrological Territories) Services; Third Vice-President • To encourage research and training A.D. Moura (Brazil) Presidents of technical in meteorology and, as appropri- commissions ate, in related fields, and to assist Ex officio members of the Executive in coordinating the international Aeronautical Meteorology Council (presidents of regional aspects of such research and C. McLeod training. associations) Agricultural Meteorology Africa (Region I) J. Salinger M.L. Bah (Guinea) Atmospheric Sciences The World Meteorological Congress Asia (Region II) M. Béland is the supreme body of the V.E. Chub (Uzbekistan) Basic Systems Organization. It brings together South America (Region III) A.I. Gusev delegates of all Members once every R.J. Viñas García (Venezuela) Climatology four years to determine general policies North America, Central America and P. Bessemoulin for the fulfilment of the purposes of the the Caribbean (Region IV) Hydrology Organization. L.G. de Calzadilla (Ms) (Panama) B. Stewart (acting) Instruments and Methods of South-West Pacific (Region V) Observation The Executive Council A. Ngari (Cook Islands) J. Nash is composed of 37 directors of National Europe (Region VI) Oceanography and Marine Meteorology Meteorological or Hydrometeorological D.K. Keuerleber-Burk (Switzerland) P. Dexter and J.-L. Fellous

WMO Bulletin 58 (1) - January 2009 | 77 Members

of WMO on 31 December 2008

States (182) Afghanistan Dominican Republic Mali Sri Lanka Albania Ecuador Malta Sudan Algeria Egypt Mauritania Suriname Angola El Salvador Mauritius Swaziland Antigua and Barbuda Eritrea Mexico Sweden Argentina Estonia Micronesia, Federated Switzerland Armenia Ethiopia States of Syrian Arab Republic Australia Fiji Moldova Tajikistan Austria Finland Monaco Thailand Azerbaijan France Mongolia The former Yugoslav Bahamas Gabon Montenegro Republic of Macedonia Bahrain Gambia Morocco Togo Bangladesh Georgia Mozambique Tonga Barbados Germany Myanmar Trinidad and Tobago Belarus Ghana Namibia Tunisia Belgium Greece Nepal Turkey Belize Guatemala Netherlands Turkmenistan Benin Guinea New Zealand Uganda Bhutan Guinea-Bissau Nicaragua Ukraine Bolivia Guyana Niger United Arab Emirates Bosnia and Herzegovina Haiti Nigeria United Kingdom of Great Botswana Honduras Niue Britain and Northern Brazil Hungary Norway Ireland Brunei Darussalam Iceland Oman United Republic of Tanzania Bulgaria India Pakistan United States of America Burkina Faso Indonesia Panama Uruguay Burundi Iran, Islamic Republic of Papua New Guinea Uzbekistan Cambodia Iraq Paraguay Vanuatu Cameroon Ireland Peru Venezuela Canada Israel Philippines Viet Nam Cape Verde Italy Poland Yemen Central African Republic Jamaica Portugal Zambia Chad Japan Qatar Zimbabwe Chile Jordan Republic of Korea China Kazakhstan Romania Territories (6) Colombia Kenya Russian Federation Comoros Kiribati Rwanda British Caribbean Territories Congo Kuwait Saint Lucia French Polynesia Cook Islands Kyrgyzstan Samoa Hong Kong, China Costa Rica Lao People’s Democratic Sao Tome and Principe Macao, China Côte d’Ivoire Republic Saudi Arabia Netherlands Antilles Croatia Latvia Senegal and Aruba Cuba Lebanon Serbia New Caledonia Cyprus Lesotho Seychelles Czech Republic Liberia Sierra Leone Democratic People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Singapore Republic of Korea Lithuania Slovakia Democratic Republic of Luxembourg Slovenia the Congo Madagascar Solomon Islands Denmark Malawi Somalia Djibouti Malaysia South Africa Dominica Maldives Spain

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Guy Brasseur Vol. 58 (1) - January 2009 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int uary 2009 n Weather, climate and the air we breathe e 58 - Ja (1) Volum

Message from the Secretary-General 4

Climate change and air quality 10 Air pollution, dust- and sandstorms and the Indian monsoon 22 WMO research and development activities to benefit Africa 41

Carbonaceous aerosol

etin 54 Atmospheric deposition to the ocean: marine MO Bull

W ecosystems and climate 61

World Meteorological Organization

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Air quality, ISSN 0042-9767 Greenhouse gases Air-quality management and weather weather and climate and urban pollution 16 prediction during the Beijing Olympics 31 in Mexico City 48