THE BRATSK-ILIMSK TERRITORIAL PRODUCTION COMPLEX: A FIELD STUDY REPORT H. Knop and A. Straszak, Editore RR-78-2 May 1978 Research Reports provide the formal record of research conducted by the International lnstitute for Applied Systems Analysis. They are carefully reviewed before publication and represent, in the Institute's best judgment, competent scientific work. Views or opinions expressed therein, however, do not necessarily reflect those of the National Member Organizations supporting the lnstitute or of the lnstitute itself. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-236 1 Laxenburg, Austria Copyright @ 1978 IIASA AU ' hts reserved. No part of this publication may be repro7 uced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publieher. Preface The Management and Technology Area of IIASA has carried out case studies of large-scale development programs since 1975. The purpose of these studies is to examine successful programs of regional development from an international perspective, with a multidisciplinary team of scientists skilled in the use of systems analysis. The study of the Bratsk-Ilimsk Territorial Production Complex (BITPC) represents an interim effort in our research activities. The first study was of the Tennessee Valley Authority in the United States*, forthcoming is the study of the Shinkansen development program in Japan. The present Report covers six major aspects of the BITPC program: goals, variants, and strategies; planning and organization; model calculations and computer applications; integration of environmental factors; energy supply systems; and water resources. It is hoped that the experience of the Soviet scientists and practitioners and the observations and suggestions of the study team will ~rovidethe IIASA National Member Organizations" with insights into problem solving in the management, planning, and organization of large-scale development programs. The study was accomplished with the support and assistance of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology, and the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Special thanks are given to G. Aleksenko, Academician A. Aganbegyan, V. Smirnov, G. Filshin, V. Gukov, and K. Kosmachov for their assistance in preparing and implementing the field study. *Hans Knop, ed. The Tennessee Valley Authority Experience, 2 vols., CP 76-2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976. Contents Introduction Concept, Goals, and Strategies of the BITPC Planning and Organization of the BITPC Models for Regional Development Planning Automated Management Systems in the BITPC Integration of Environmental Factors in the Development of a Territorial Production Complex Energy Supply Systems Water Resource Development in the BITPC Introduction Planning, managing and organizing large-scale development programs are complex activities carried out by many governments, local authorities and corporations. Technological, political, economic, social and environmental factors must be taken into account when seeking solutions to problems in this area. Systems Analysis has proved increasingly helpful for these purposes. Because of international interest in this subject the IIASA Management and Technology Area launched a series of studies of large-scale development programs worldwide. The first study was the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in the United States. The Bratsk-Ilimsk Territorial Production Department (BITPC) in the Soviet Union is the second in this series; the third will be the Shinkansen super express railway program in Japan. These studies cover program preparation and implementation including goal setting, elaboration of alternatives, decision proc esses and selection, organizational structure and functioning, model calculations, and computer application, as well as integra- tion of environmental factors in planning and decisionmaking. The objectives of these studies are as follows: - To learn about problems and solutions in large- scale development programs; - To obtain a better understanding of the respective socio-economic environments; - To extract and generalize methodological experiences; - To ascertain principles and methods applicable to the development of other large-scale production complexes. Each study has been preceded by an international conference at IIASA [I ,2], followed by a field study and report by an IIASA team of scientists. The results of the field study at Bratsk-Ilimsk are presented in this Report. During the field study, IIASA scientists worked as a team as well as in separate working groups. These working groups are responsible for the various papers in this Report. The composition of these groups and their subject areas are as follows : - Goals, Variants, and Strategies of the BITPC: Hans Knop, Rolf Pieplow, John Tomb, and Detlof von Winterfeldt. - Planning and Organization of the BITPC: Cyril Davies, Ada Deb, Raul Espejo, and Roman Ostrowski. - Models for Regional Development Planning: Jan Owskinski, Kurt Schaffir, and Andrzej Straszak. - Automated Management Systems in the BITPC: Bohumil Mazel, and Kurt Schaffir. - Integration of Environmental Factors in the BITPC Development: David Fischer, Saburo Ikeda, Robert Tuch, William Matthews, and Weseley Foell. - Energy Supply Systems: Plamen Tsvetanov. - Water Resource Development in the BITPC: Ilya Gouevsky. For the purpose of a unified report, there have been cross- contributions of working groups to other papers. The study of the BITPC was sponsored by the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology. A group of Soviet scien- tists led by Academician A. Aganbegyan took part in the inter- national conference, in the preparations for the field study, and in the internal organization of the study in the USSR, and played the important role of consultants to the IIASA team. This group had the following composition: Viacheslav Smirnov, Gennady Filshin, Vladimir Gukov, Kirill Kosmachov, and Leonid KO zlov . The IIASA scientists had credible access to the organiza- tions scheduled for interviews. All scientists involved recog- nized the helpfulness of those interviewed. The IIASA scientists developed a good rapport with their Soviet counterparts and accompanying translators. Close communication over the three week study period contributed to a broad understanding of the concepts and the context of the Soviet planning and management system. In addition, the Soviet scientists accompanying the group in Siberia returned to IIASA to study and discuss the group's findings. This review further added to the verification process. The schedule of the field trip was prepared in advance and the organizations to be studied were selected by the head of the study group in conjunction with the Soviet scientists. At the institutions visited, several hundred Soviet scientists and government officials attended the meetings, and gave presenta- tions and/or interviews. These institutions are as follows: Moscow GOSPLAN (State Planning Committee of the Soviet Council of Ministers) SOPS (Council for the Study of Production Forces under GOSPLAN of the USSR) KEPS (Committee of Production Forces and Natural Resources of the Presidium of the USSR Academy of Sciences) CEMI (Central Economic Mathematics Institute of of the USSR) CERI (Central Economic Research Institute the Russian Federation) Moscow State University - Department of Geography SCST (State Committee for Science and Technology of the USSR) HMS (Hydrometeorological Service) Ministry of Energy ENERGOSETPROJECT - design institute for energy systems Institute of Geography, USSR Academy of Sciences ~ovosibirsk(Academgorodok) IEOIP (Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of USSR Academy of Sciences) Institute of Mathematics, Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences Computing Center of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences Irkutsk Siberian Institute of Energetics, Siberian Branch of USSR Academy of Sciences Institute of Geography of Siberian and the Far East, Siberian Branch of USSR Academy of Sciences Irkutsk Branch of IEOIP OBPLAN - Planning Commission of the Oblast Soviet Irkutsk Hydrometeorological Branch Lake Baikal - Institute of Limnology of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences Bratsk Executive Committee of Bratsk Bratskgesstroi Bratsk Hydroelectricpower station Aluminium Plant Timber Processing Complex Bratsk Hydrometeorology Branch Bratsk Cultural Center Ust-Ilimsk Bratskgesstroi Ust-Ilimsk Branch Ust-Ilimsk Hydropower Station Cellulose plant construction site STUDY PERSPECTIVE AND APPROACH The BITPC is one of the major TPCs in the USSR. The method used for the IIASA study was a retrospective case analysis. Such hindsight reviews can be valuable tools for utilizing information about past projects in future planning of similar development projects. By monitoring development, it is possible to show how successful the project was in attaining prescribed goals, how unforeseen impacts--political, economical, technological, environmental and otherwise--were taken into account, and how the development process was adapted to changing sets of circum- stances over time. Such reviews, however, are not common. The potential for criticism, the problems of impartiality, and the difficulty of confirming past perceptions may explain the general reluctance