DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 284 738 SE NB 283 AUTHOR Bromown, Lester R., And Others TITLE Stanate of the World: 1987. A WorldwatchInstitut Repaport on Progress toward a SustainableSomiety. INSTITUTION Wor---ldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. REPORT NO 'SHAUN-0-393-30389-6 PUB DATE 87 NOTE 28t1p.; For 1986 report, see ED 268 037,

AVAILABLE FMWor-7-.1dwatch Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave., Waisr.mhigton, DC 20036 ($9.95). PUB TYPE Viwpoints (120) -- Reports - Descriptive (141) EDRS PRICE 140).1 Plus Postage. PC Not Available froAMMS. DESCRIPTORS Air- ; *Conservation (Environment); Demmographyy Depleted ; *EcoloOmi Faclt=ors; Sco..i.nomic Factors; *Environmental Educatioru Environmental Standards; *Global Approach; *Nattaaral Res-zources; Nuclear ; Poisons; *Quality of ; Ree=ycling; ABSTRACT This book was developed to highlight therisks confront sodeties, and to indicate the most promisingavenues EHor preemptive policies-z and actions. The document contains Aapters (1) the emergence o-f change; (2) analyzing demographicfactors; (3) assessing the fut:ur -e of urbanization; (4) reassessing nuclear powlfler_ (including n analysis of the impact of the'Chernobyl disaster); (S) the electrification = of the third world; (6) the potentld impact=s of onthe fu_Aum'eu (7)_sustaining in the worldM4 (8) raising_agricultura productivity; (9) the stabilizationof chemical cycles (witha look at the effects of acid ); (10) heigningm sustainableeconomi. cs (containing a section on balancitgeconomi c markets); and (11) charting a sustainable course. An ithx is included. 00

* ****ft* * =m***************************** *****04** Reproductions =supplied by EDRS are the best that can be mad.=a from the original document. to'

MI. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION OffIce of Educational Research end Improyernent EDUCM1ONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) Is document has bean reproduced es received from the person or organization orlginsting if. 0 Minor changes have been mede 10 imnroye reproductionquality

POInt8 of view or opinions slated In this dOcu-7- ment do not neceesarily represent offiClal OERI position or policy _

4,4ERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THI 'PAATERIAL IN MICROFICHE ONLY HAS BE GRANTED BY

' TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ER(C)." STATE OF THE WORLD 1987 Other No on/Worldwatch B o Lester R. Brown et al State of the World 1984 State of the World-1985 State of the World 1986

4 S -:.: OF THE F LD 87 AW Institute Reporton Progre irdaSustainable Society

PROJECT DIRECTOR Lester R. Brown ASSOCIATE PROJECT DIRECTOR Edward CWolf EDITOR Linda Starke SENIOR RESEARCHERS Lester R. Brown William U Chandler Christopher Flavin Cynthia Pollock Sandra Postel Edward CWolf RESEARCHER Jodz Jacobson W W-NORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON Copyright © 1987 by the World atch Institute All rights reserved. Published vrnultaneously in Canada by Penguin Books Canada Ltd., 2801 John Stree Markham, Ontario L311 184. Printed in the United States of America.

The text or this book is composed in Baskerville. with display type set in Caslon. Composition and hy The Haddon Craftsmen, Inc.

ISBN 13-393-02399-0 ISBN 0-393-30389-6(PBKI

W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue. New York, N.Y. 10110 W. W. A-"Vorton & Company Ltd.. 37 Great Russell Street, London WC18 3NU

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

6 WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE BOARD OFDIRECTORS

Orville L. Freeman, Chairman Hazel Henderson UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Andrew E. Rice, Vice Chairman Anne-Marie Holenstein UNITED STATES SWITZERLAND Lester R. Brown (Ex Officio Abd-El Rahman Khane UNITED STATES ALGERIA Carlo M. Cipolla Larry Minear ITALY UNITED STATES Edward S. Cornish Walter Orr Roberts UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lynne Gallagher Rafael M. Salas UNITED STATES PHILIPPINES Mahhub ul Hai PAKISTAN

WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE STAFF Cynthia Bainton Christopher Flavin Reah Janise Battenfield Blondeen Gravely Robin Bell Jodi Jacobson Brian Brown odi Johnson Lester R. Brown Susan Norris William U. Chandler Cynthia Pollock Angela Coyle Sandra Postel Alan Durning Edward C. Wolf

OFFICERS Lester R. Bro n Blondeen Gravely PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT Felix Gorrell Timothy Atkeson TREASURER GENERAL COUNSEL Acknowledgments

State of the World 1987, like its predeces- the authors shape and refine their ideas. sors, could not be published without the This year that capablegroup included help of a great many people beyond the Douglas Barnes, Jozsef Bognár, Robert authors of the report. Civiak, Paul Clark, Dieter Deumling, We have been fortunate since the in- Chris Dodge, Ardrea Fella, James Fish, ception of the State of the World seriesto Howard Geller, john H. Gibbons, Nora have the sustained support and enthusi- Goldstein, Nigel Green, Holly L. Gwin, asm of William Dietel, President of the Carl Haub, Maureen Hinkle, Don Hin- Rockefeller Brothers Fund. RBF and richsen, Bruce Horwith, Gábor Hovanyi, the Winthrop Rockefeller Trust, which Judith Jacobsen, William Kellogg, Peter along with David Rockefeller provided Knight, Justin Lancaster, István Ling, start-up funding for State of the World, William Liebhardt, Gene Likens, Ben Love maintained their commitmentto Livingston, James MacKenzie, Thomas the project. Beginning thisyear, the Merrick, Alan Miller, Charles Movit, George Gund Foundation is also provid- Lorie Parker, Jerry Powell, Paul Rankin, ing support for State of the Worid. Robert Rodale, Ralph Rotty, Mark Sil- The 1987 volume draws on Institute berman, Joseph Speidel, John Stuyt, Ed work supported by the Edna McConnell Sulzberger, Ken Tull, Arthur Vander, Clark, Geraldine R. Dodge, William and Stephen Viederman, Garth Youngberg, Flora Hewlett, W. Alton Jones, Andrew and David Zoellner. Errors that remain W. Mellon, Edward John Noble, and Jes- are, of course, the responsibility of the sie Smith Noyes Foundations and by the authors. United Nations Fund for Ac- Linda Starke edited and coordinated tivities. production of this fourth edition of State Timely production of State of the World of the World, as she has the previous is largely due to the efforts of two people three. Authors are indebted to Linda for at W.W. Norton 8c Company: Iva Ashner her sure editorial judgment, soundsty- and Andy Marasia. Iva handles the ad- listic and aesthetic sense, and unbending ministrative responsibilities, while Andy enforcement of atightproduction manages the production of the book schedule. This year, as last, the index from the time he receives our wordproc- that enhances the book's value as a refer- essing disks. Their commitment to the ence was compiled by Bart Brown. project ensures both speedy production Capable research assistance, which and a delightful Norton/Worldwatch strengthens all the work of the Institute, working relationship. is particularly important in the produc- Among the most important contribu- tion of State of the World. The authorsare tions made to State of the Worldare the grateful to Angela Coyle (Chapter 10), comments of outside reviewers who help Gretchen Daily (Chapter 9), and Alan (vi) Acknow Durning (Chapters 4 ara.,c1 8) for their re- time between maintaining the flow of pa- liable and insightful assistance. Jodi pers and magazines in the office and Jacobson, coauthor of Ihapter 3, made competing as a member of the U.S. substantive contributiot_s to Chapters 1, Kayak Team. Our gratitude, too, goes to 2, and 7 as . Pamela Berkeley and Colleen Bickrnan, Our greatest debt is tC=, the other mem- who left the Institute for other pursuits bers of the WorldwatcAli Institute staff, this year, and to Claver Bickman and full partners in all faect s-2. of the State ef the Linda Doherty, who pitched in when we World project, Reah Jazz-Ilse Battenfield, needed extra hands. Jodi Johnson, and Susn Norris typed Above all, we thank Worldwatch Vice chapter drafts and ove--,rsaw the book's President BlondeenGravely,whose demanding gestation. 4aCynthia Bainton skillful administration eases the burden and Jodi Johnson cocadinated sales of on researchers and support staff alike. Worldwatch Papers anal State of the World The guidance provided by the Institute's that exceeded allpr-cvious records. Board of Directors, chaired by Orville Robin Bell, new Direct+roor of Communi- Freeman, likewise reinforces our com- cations, managed the cot- Atreach and mar- mitment to raise awareness about the keting of State of the Wol4 while editing challenges that face humanity. seven Worldwatch Paprs in the course of the year. Brian Brovv--n again split his Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf

9 Contents

Acknowledgments vit 4 Reassessing , by List of Tables and Figures xi Christopher Flavin 57 Foreword xv CHERNOBYL'S TOLL THE POLITICAL FALLOUT 1 Thresholds of Change, by Lester R. REVISING THE NUCLEAR DREAM Brown and Sandra Posed 3 BEyOND INDECISION ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, AND THE ECONOMY 5 Electrifying the Third World, by CROSSING NATURAL THRESHOLDS Christopher Flavin 81 OIL DEPLETION AND AN EMERGING POWER CRISIS pRODUCTION DEVELOPINQ ELECTRICITY THE cOSTS oF CROSSING NATURAL EFFICIENCY LIMITS ELECTRIFYING RURAL AREAs LESSONS FROM THE PAST STRENCTIFI WENCH DIVERSITY OUR NEW RESPONSIBILM 6 Realizing 1ecycling's Potential, by 2 Analyzing the Demographic Trap, by Cynthia Pala 101 Lester R. Brown 20 THE GARBAGE GLUT A DEmOGRApHICALLY DIVIDED WORLD MANAGING SOLID WASTE STRESSES RECYCLING TRENDS AND DIVERGING FOOD AND INCOME TRENDS PoTENTIAL GROWING RURAL LANDLEssNEss sUCCESSFUL. RECYCLING POPULATION GROxAM AND CoNFLicT PROGRAMS THE DEMOGRApHIC TRAP CORNERSTONES OF A REcYcLING SOCIETY 3 Assessing the Future of Urbaniza- don, by Lester R. Brown and Jodi 7 Sustaining WorldAgriculture,by Jacobson 38 Lester R. Brown 122 THE oftowTH AND ROLE OF CITIES CROPLAND OVEREXPANSION URBAN ENERGY NEEDS AND FOOD FEEDING CITIES THE ROLE OF NuTRIENT RECYCLING ENERGY TO PRODUCE FOOD ECOLOGY AND ECONOMICS OF CITY FOOD 5ECURIIYTRENDS SIzE ESTIMATING SUSTAINABLE FOOD SEEKING A RURAL-URBAN BALANCE OUTPUT

1 0 (x) Co 8 Raising Agricuitural Productivity, by 10 Designing Sustainable Econonlies, Edward C. Wolf 139 by William U. Chandler 177 PRoDUCTIVrrY RECONSIDERED EFFICIENCY IN AGRICuLTURE BEyoND THE ENERGY EFFEcIENCIES REDESCOvERING TRADITMNAL EQUITY QUEsTIONs AGRICULTURE CHANGING RELIANCE ON MARKETS TOWARD APPROPRIATE ToWARD A BALANCE BIOTECHNoLOGY nvo-wAv TECHNOLOGY 11 Charting a Sustainable Course, by TRANSFER Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Waif 196 9 Stabilizing Chemical Cycles, by THE SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGE Sandra Posiel 157 COMPLETING THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DIS2UPTION OF CHEMICAL BALANCING THE CARBON EQUATION CYCLES A SECOND ENERGY REVOLUTION RISKS TO CENTERS OF DECISION cHEmICAL STREsSEs oN THREATS TO HUMAN HEALTH Notes 215 MINIMIZING RISKS Index 253 Tables andFigures

LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1. Thresholds of Change 1-1World Population, Econ?mic Output,and Consumption, 1900-86 5 1-2 World Agricultural Energy Use and GrainProduction, 1950-85 11 1-3World Oil Reserves by Region, 1985 12 1-4India: Index of Real Prices for Foodand Fuelwood in 41 Urban Centers, 1960-84 13 1-5Grain Yields Per Hectare in Four AfricanCountries With Declining Yields, 1950-52 to 1983-85 13

Chapter 2. Analyzing the DemographicTrap 2-1World by GeographicRegion, 1986 2-2 22 Projected Population Size at Stabilization,Selected Countries 23 2-3Measures of Sustainability in Seven AfricanCountries, by Ecological Zones, 1980 25 2-4Selected Debtor Countries Where InterestPayments on External Debt Exceed 20 Percent of Export Earnings, 1985 28 2-5Rapid Population Growth CountriesWith Declining Per Capita Grain Produc- tion, 1970-72 to 1985 28 2-6Changes in Population and Per CapitaIncome, Major Countries, 1980-86 29 2.7 : Landless Rural Hou eholds, 1961and 1981, With Projectionsto 2000 31

Chapter 3. Assessing the Future of Urbanization 3-1Urban Share of Total Population, SelectedRegions, 1950 and 1986, With Projections to 2000 40 3-2 Hong Kong: Energy Use by Sourceand Sector, 1976 43 3-3 India: Changes in Closed CoverAround Major Cities, 1972-75to 1980-82 44 3-4India: Fuelwood Prices in Leading Cities,1960-84 44 3-5 The Changing Pattern of World GrainTrade, 1950-86 46 3-6 Sludge Production and Disposal in SelectedIndustrial Countries, 1983 49

12 (xii ) Lisi of Tables and Figures 3-7Annual Water Consumption in Three Cifies, by Source 51 3-8India: Fuelwood Prices in Major Cities, by Size, 1984 52

Chapter 4, Reassessing Nuclear Power 4-1Soviet Union: Estimated Direct Financial Losses from the Chernobyl Accident, 1986 62 4-2Reactions to Chernobyl in Selected European Countries 64 4-3Public Opposition in Selected Countries to Building Additional Nuclear Power 65 4-4Worldwide Nuclear Power Commitment, July 1, 1986 69 4-5Projections of Worldwide Nuclear Power Generating Capacity for 1980, 1990, and 2000 70 4-6Adjustments to Nuclear Programs Since 1980, Selected Countries 71 4-7Projected Cost of New Nuclear Power Plants in Selected Countries 72 4-8Actual and Planned Worldwide Additions of Nuclear Power Generating Capac- ity, by Five-Year Intervals, 1971-95 74 4-9 The Non-Nuclear Club 76 Chapter 5. Electrifying the Third World 5-1Per Capita Income and Electricity Use in Selected Developing Countries 1982 83 5-2Electricity Generating Capacity in Selected Countries, by Source, 1982 84 5-3Brazil: Potential Electricity Savings in Selected End-Uses by the Year 2000 88 54 Extent of Electrification in Selected Developing Counties, 1982 91 5-5Electricity Uses in Homes in Rural Areas of Costa Rica and Colombia That Have Electricity. 92 5-6Decentralized Potential in Selected Countries 96 Chapter 6. Realizing Recycling's Potential 6-1Refuse Generation Rates in Selected Cities, Circa 1980 103 6-2Share of Household Waste Sent to Waste-to-Energy Plants in Various Coun- tries, 1985 107 6-3Environmental Benefits Derived from Substituting Secondary Materials for Vir- gin Resources 109 6-4Recovery Rates for Aluminum, Paper, and Glass in Selected Countries, 1985 111 Chapter 7. Sustaining World Agriculture 7-1Growth in Irrigated Area, by Continent, 1950-85 125 7-2World Fertilizer Use, Total and Per Capita, 1950-86 128 7-3Ratios of World Grain Production to Fertilizer Use, 1950-86 130 7-4Energy Use in World Agriculture, 1950-85 131 7-5Annual Growth in Energy Use in World Agriculture By Decade, 1950-85 131 7-6Annual Growth in World Grain Production Total and Per Capita, 1950-73 and 1973-86 133 13 List of Tables and Figures 7-7Index of World Food Security, 1960-86 134 7-8Projected Reductions in Annual U.S. GrainOutput as Unsustainable Use of and Water is Phased Out 138 Chapter 8. Raising Agricultural Productivity 8-1Increase in Average Grain Production and Fertilizer Use,by Regi n Between 1970-74 and 1980-84 141 8-2Land Productivity in World's 11 Most PopulousCountries, 1985 142 8-3Estimated Germplasm Samples Collected for MajorFood Crops and Coverage of Traditional Varieties and Wild Species 147 8-4Burkina Faso: Complementary Effect of Artificialand Organic Fertilizerson Sorghum Yields, 1981 150 Chapter 9. Stabilizing Chemical Cycles 9-1Estimated Annual Global Emissions of Selected Metalsto the Atmosphere from Human Activity and Natural Sources, Circa 1980 160 9-2Share of World Cereal Exports in 1984 fromMajor Countries Where Summer Moisture is Expected to Decrease 163 9-3Water Supplies Under Present and Postulated Climate,Western United States 165 9-4Estimated Forest Damage in Europe, August 1986 167 9-5Chemicals in Runoff from Forested Watersheds,Czechoslovakia, 1976-82 168 9-6Projected Dates for a Doubling of CO2 Over PreindustrialLevels Given Differ- ent Rates of Growth in Fossil Fuel Emissions 174 Chapter 10. Designing Sustainable Economies 10-1Efficiency of Energy Use, Selected Countries, 1983 182 10-2Income in 1983 and Income Distribution, Circa 1980,for Selected Countries 184 10-3Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, Selected Countries,1982 187 10-4Estimated Role of State-Owned Enterprises in SelectedEconomies, Circa 1980 189 10-5Movements Toward Market Orientation of Industry inthe Eighties, Selected Countries 190 10-6 Wheat and Rice Producer Prices in SelectedCountries, Compared with World Market Price, Circa 1982 192 Chapter 11. Charting a Sustainable Course 11-1 Countries That Have Completed the DemographicTransition, 1986 202 11-2Carbon-Emissions Intensity of World Economic Output,1950-86 205 11-3Fuel Efficiency of Selected Four-Passenger Automobiles 207 11-4Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning, 1983 211 (riv) List of Tables and Figures LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1. Thresholds of Change 1-1 Atmospheric Levels of Carbon Dioxide, 180 986 9 1-2World Oil and Grain Production, 1950-86 10 Chapter 2. Analyzing the Demographic Trap 2-1Per Capita Grain Production in Western Europe and Africa, 1950-86 29 2-2Grain Self-Sufficiency in Egypt, 1960-86 34 Chapter 4. Reassessing Nuclear Power 4-1Cumulative Years of Nuclear Reactor Operation Worldwide, 1960-85, With Projections to 2000 78

Chapter 7. Sustaining World Agriculture 7-1World Harvested Area of Grain, 1950-86 12 7-2Irrigated Land in the United States, 1949-84 126 7-3World Fertilizer Use and Grain Area Per Capita, 1950-86 128 7-4Fertilizer Use in the United States, 1950-86 129 7-5Fertilizer Use in , 1952-84 129 7-6Per Capita Grain Production in Africa and Latin America, 195 135 7-7Wheat and Rice Production in India, 1950-86 136 Chapter 8. Raising Agricultural Productivity 8-1Area Planted to High-Yielding Varieties of Wheat in South Asia, 1965-82 144

Chapter 9. Stabilizing Chemical Cycles 9-1Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion Worldwide, 1950-84 158 Chapter 10. Designing Sustainable Economies 10.1Total Agricultural Productivity for the United States and the Soviet Union, 1960-84 181 10-2Energy Consumption Per Dollar of GNP for the United States and the Soviet Union, 1970-82 187

15 Foreword

When we decided, with theencourage- World has also risen with each annual ment of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, volume. Without this extensive print and to launch the Slate of the World reports, electronic media coverage, it would be beginning with 1984, we expected there virtually impossible to reacha worldwide would be a strong demand. We didnot audience. Whether throughan article in anticipate the rate at which the demand The People's Daily (China)or an appear- would grow. Using virtuallyany indica- ance on the Today Show, all media cover- torsales,translations,orders from age of State of the World raises public policymakers, or course adoptionson awareness of both the long-standing and college campusesinterest in State of the the newly emergent environmentalis- World expands each year. sues that now confront the entire world. The first printing of State of the World Last year, we reported thatwe had 1984 totaled 16,000 copies. By year's been approached by the producersof end it had gone through five printings NOVA to collaborate on a 10-part televi- for a total of 27,000 copies. For Stateo sion series based on State of the World. the World 1987, the first printing will be Most of the $6 million for this project 50,000 copies. has now been raised, and the British State of the World now appears inmost Broadcasting Corporation and televi- of the world's major languages. In addi- sion film production units in India and tion to English, it is published in Span- Australia will be joining NOVA in the ish, Arabic, Chinese, and Japanese.It production of the series. NHK, thena- also appearsinseverallesswidely tional network in Japan, has also in- spoken languages, including Indone- dicated a strong interest. sian, Polish, Romanian, and Thai. We We are excited by this major initiative estimate that the worldwide market in all not only because it adds a new dimen- languages is now in excess of 200,000 sion to our global public educational copies. effort in its own right, but also because State of the World 1986 is used as a text- the film and print versions of Stateof the book in nearly 200 U.S. colleges and uni- World will reinforce each other through- versities. As in 1985, the University of out the world. For educators, a tele- Wisconsin campus at Madison still leads course and instructional guide are being the way, with five separatecourses hav- developed withthe support of the ing adopted the book. The University of Carnegie Corporation and the Hitachi at Berkeley uses the text in Foundation. Another promisingcom- four courses and several other institu- plement to the television series isthe tions, including Harvard, use State of the preparation of a Citizen's Guideto a Sus- World in three differentcourses. tainable Society by the Global Tomorrow Worldwide media interest in Stateo the Coalition, a Washington-based organi-

16 Foreword zation of some 70 public interest groups, people must perceive the threat for a co- from the Audubon Society to Zero Popu- gent response to emerge. Information is lation Growth. the key to crossing such thresholds. Occasionally a news reporter, an edi- Once public concernisaroused,it torial writer, or a columnist will write a becomes possible and indeed necessary piece on State of the World that strikes a for politicians to act. responsive chord, measurably raising One such threshold was crossed when public awareness. When Hugh Sidey de- Congress passed the Food Security Act voted his February 24th Time magazine in December 1985 After two compre- column, "The Presidency," to a compar- hensive USDA surveys and several ison of President Reagan's State of the studies by environmental groups in- Union address and our State of the World dicated severe enough to under- report, such a chord was struck. Sidey mine U.S.agriculture, groups concluded that State of the World was "ar- joined national environmental organiza- guably a more accurate and provocative tions to demand action. Congress voted picture of the globe than the one overwhelmingly to establish a conserva- sketched by the President.- For the fol- tion reserve designed to convert 45 mil- lowing week, our phones rang on aver- lion acres of the most highly erodible age once every six minutes as Timeread- cropland into grassland or woodland. ers called to order the report. Theinformationthatunderpins Sometimes the information in State o change may COI= in more dramatic the World contributes directly to shaping form. For societies weighing the pros policy. In other cases, the contribution is and cons of nuclear power, the accident more indirect. An annual two-day retreat at Chernobyl in April 1986 confirmed of the senior staff at the World Bank held the consequences of a core-damaging in November 1985 was devoted to sus- power accident. European coun- tainable development and addressed by tries exposed to the radiation from the project director of r .te of the World. Chernobyl were soon reexamining the And in April 1986, the African Develop- future of their nuclear power programs. ment Bank invited the authors of last Although statistical models of the risks year's chapter on "Reversing Africa's and consequences of a nuclear accident Decline- to lead a seminar for directors had long been available, the magnitude and senior staff in Abidjan on the links of the Chernobyl accident prompted ac- between the environment and the econ- tions that even widely publicized studies omy. No policy decisions weremade at had never inspired. either the November retreat or the April State of the World is intended to help seminar. But key decision makers in the societies cross perceptual thresholds be- field of international development dis- fore, rather than after, such disruptive cussed what was sustainable and what events occur. The task of the series, in was not, considering sustainabilityalong part, is to highlight the risks that con- with the financial concerns that have front societies, and to indicate the most traditionallydominated development promising avenues for preemptive poli- policymaking. cies and actions. , en- For the world to respond to global ergy efficiency, materials recycling, and challenges such as soil erosion, species population stabilizationa few of the extinction, or human-ind iced climate themes emphasized herecan broaden change, we must cross what Harvard the options open to societies and en- Universityprofessor Harvey Brooks hance the prospects of the next genera- terms a -perceptual threshold.- Enough tion. Forewo d As in the past, we welcome ideas and suggestions. Insightful comments from readers often help us cross the percep- tual thresholds that we hope keep State of the World fresh and useful. Lester R. Brown Project Director Edward C. Wolf Associate Project Dir ctor Worldwatch Institute 1776 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 December 1986 rfArE OF THE WORLD 1987 Thresholdsof Change Lester R. Brownand Sandra Postel

Daily news events remindus that our re- 1983, and five of ninewarmest years in lationship with the and its natural the entire 134-year record occurring systems is changing, often in ways we do after 1978," Three months later,a U.S. not understand. In May 1985, a British Geological Survey team reportedthat research team reported findinga sharp the frozen earth beneath the Arcticum- decline in the level of atmosphericozone dra in Alaska had warmed 4-7 degrees over Antarctica. Verified by other scien- Fahrenheit (2.2-3.9 degrees Celsius) tists, the discovery of this unanticipated over the last century, providing further "hole- in the earth's protective shield of evidence that a CO2-induced warming ozone sent waves of concern throughout was under way.2 the international scientific community.A Sometime in mid-1986, world popula- thinning ozone layer would allowmore tion reached 5 billion. Yetno celebra- of the sun's ultraviolet radiationto reach tions were held in recognition ofthis the earth, causing more skincancers, im- demographic milestone. Indeed,many pairing human immune systems, andre- who reflected on it were left witha pro- tarding crop growth,' found sense of unease about themount- in late July 1986, a team of scientists ing pressures on the earth'sforests, studying the effect of rising atmospheric , and other naturalsystems. With 3 levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) anti other billion young people entering theirre- "greenhouse gases" published evidence productive years over thenext genera- that the predicted global warming has tion, these pressures are certainto inten- begun. Meteorologists at the University sify.3 of East Anglia in the United Kingdom In October 1986, the U.S. National constructeda comprehensiveglobal Academy of Sciences and the Smith- temperature series for the last 134 years. sonian Institution conveneda National Their conclusion: "The data showa long Forum on in Washington, time scale warming trend, with the three D.C. Addressed by nearly 100promi- warmest years being 1980, 1981 and nent biologists, the conference sounded a clear note of urgency about the multi- 'inns of measurement are metric unless common plying threats to species survival.Scien- usage dictates otherwise. tists warned of a forthcomingwave of

20 Slate o orld-1987 mass extinctionone tnat would ap- dye, it nonetheless resulted in unprece- proach the magnitude of that which dented fallout of long lasting radioactive wiped out the dinosaurs and half of all materials in many parts of Europe. The other extant species some 65 million tragic mishap at Chernobyl may have years ago. There is one important differ- pushed nuclear power beyond some ence: Whereas the earlier cataclysm was previously undefined threshold of social of natural origin, the one now unfolding acceptability. In the aftermath of the is driven by human activities.4 world'sfirstmajor nuclear disaster, These changes in atmospheric chem- many nations are scaling back plans for istry, global temperature, and the abun- nuclear power development. (See Chap- dance of living species reflect the cross- ter 4.)5 ing of key thresholds in natural systems, Other trends of the mid-eighties also crossings that may impair the r:arth's ca- call into question the viability of our pacity to sustain an ever-growing human path toward economic progress. . A frustrating paradox is agriculture is producing surpluses, but emerging. Efforts to improve living stan- for the wrong reasons. (See Chapter 7.) dardsarethemselvesbeginningto A portion of today's surplus is being threaten the health of the global econ- produced only by diminishing the agri- omy. The very notion of progress begs cultural basefor example, by for redefinition in light of the intolerable plowing highly erodible land and over- consequences unfolding as a result of its drafting underground water supplies. pursuit. The extent of unsustainable in Many thresholds have been breached the United States was recognized when inadvertently from advances in technol- Congress voted in December 1985 to ogy and growth in human numbers. Cor- convert 45 million acres (18 million porations manufacturing the family of hectares) of highly erodible cropland to chemicals known aschlorofluorocar- grassland or woodland. The Food Secu- bons, for example, surely did not intend rity Act of 1985 aims to shift one eighth for these compounds to deplete the of U.S. cropland to alternative, sustain- ozone layer. Their goal was to produce able uses before erosion turns it into efficient refrigerants, a practical propel- wasteland.6 lant for aerosol spray cans, and a chemi- Burgeoningpopulationsinmany cal agent used to make foam products. urban areas are overtaxing local water Nonetheless, the accumulation of chlo- sources, fuel supplies, and waste dis- rofluorocarbonsintheatmosphere posal capacities, crossing natural thresh- threatens to subject all forms of life to olds and translating directly into eco- damaging doses of ultraviolet radiation, nomiccosts.Resource demandsin a threat that will take on new urgency if numerous cities already exceed the lim- scientists determine that these com- its of local supplies, whether it be water pounds play a role in the periodic deple- in Tucson and Mexico City, or firewood tion of the ozone layer over Antarctica. in Hyderabad. (See Chapter 3.) Espe- By the same token, radiation falling cially in Third World areas experiencing across Europe during April and May of unprecedented rates of urbanization, 1986 was not the result of a planned nu- these imbalances will frustrate efforts to clear attack. It was released accidentally improve living standarcI3. on April 26 from Chernobyl 4, a nuclear A sustainable society satisfies its needs reactor in the Soviet Union. While the without diminishing the prospects of the production of electricity to power the next generation. By many measures, Soviet economy is clearly a valid objec- contemporary society fails to meet this

21 Thresholds of Change (5 criterion. Questions of ecologicalsus- tainability are arising Though impressive by historicalstan- on every conti- dards, this growthwas dwarfed by what nent. The scale of human activities has followed.Between begun to threaten the habitability 1950 and1986, of the human numbers doubledto 5 billion, ex- earth itself. Nothing short offundamen- panding as much during thest. tal adjustments in populationand en- 36 years ergy policies will stave off the host of as during the preceding few million. Per costly changes now unfolding, capita income also roughlydoubled, changes pushing the gross world productover that could overwhelmour long-standing $13 trillion. Within efforts to improve the human condition. a generation, the global output of goods andservices quadrupled. A variety oftechnological advances aided this expansion, butnone compare with the growth in fossil fuel use. Between 1950 and 1986, world fos- ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, AND sil fuel consumption also increasedfour- THE ECONOMY fold, paralleling the growth inthe global economy. When this century began, scarcelyone Resource constraints life span ago, world population on global eco- num- nomic expansion emerged fromtime to bered 1.6 billion, Assumingan average time throughout thecentury. But a com- per capita income of $400 peryear (1986 bination of advancing technologyand dollars), the gross world productwas cheap energy repeatedly pushed $640 billion, just slightly them more than back. As opportunities foradding new France's 1986 national product of $550 cropland diminished, for example,en- billion. (See Table 1-1.) Overthe next ergy was widely substituted for land in half-century, world population grew by boosting food production. Aftermid- nearly a billion, bringing the totalto 2.5 century, relatively littlenew land was billion. Modest progress in raisingper brought under the plow inmost regions, capita income brought thegross world yet global crop output expanded product to roughly $3 trillion even in 1950. faster than before. Worldagriculture Table 1-1. World Population, Economic Output, and Fossil FuelCon.nmption, 1900-86 Gross World Population Fossil Fuel Product Consumption (trillion (billion tons (billions) 1980 dollars) of coal equivalent) 1900 1.6 0.6 1 1950 2.5 2.9 1986 5.0 13.1 sourtm Population statistics from United Nations; in 1950 from Herbert R. Block, gross world product in 1900, authors'estimate, and The Planetary Product in 1980: A CreativePause? Department of State. 1981), with updates (Washington, D.C.: U.S. 1900 from M. King Hubbell, "Energyfrom International Monetary Fund; fossilfuelsconsumptionin Resources," inResources and Man Academy of Sciences, 1969); for remaining (Washington, D.C.: National years. Worldwatch estimates basedon data from American Petroleum Institute and U.S. Departmentof Energy. (6) State of the World -1987 made a smooth transition from expand- talneededto expand output.(See ing cropland area to raising yields, and Chapter 9.) And the costs of protecting even picked up the pace of foodproduc- in low-lying areas from a tion in doing so. riseinsealevelcoulddivertvast became the central amounts of capital away from other de- goal of governments everywhere. Re- velopment goals. gardless of ideology or stage of devel- The earth's forest cover is diminish- opment, all sought similar endsan ing, most dramatically inthe Third expansion of their economies and im- World as a result of land clearing, fire- provements in living standards. Though gathering, and logging, but also in the gains achieved were far from equally central Europe as a result of distributed, the world as a whole ex- and acid deposition Besides the direct perienced remarkable economic prog- losses forest damage causes to forest in- ress. dustries, serious environmental conse- quences are emerging, includingin- creased rainfall runoff, accelerated soil Economic activity could be ap- erosion, and diminished . Only time will reveal the complete tally proaching a level where further of ecological costs, since the forest dpm- growth in gross world product age continues to spread.8 costs more than it is worth. World food production increased an impressivetwo-and-a-half timesbe- tween 1950 and 1986, but this too has its While the global economy has ex- costs. Four fifths of this increase resulted panded continuously, the natural sys- from more intensive use of land, but be- tems that support it unfortunately have tween 1950 and 1976, the year growth in not. Economist Herman Daly suggests the cropland area ended, some 130 mil- that -as the economy grows beyond its lion hectares of grainland were added. present physical scale, it may increase Though small compared with growth in costs faster than benefits andinitiate an the demand for food, this addition ex- era of uneconomic growth whichim- ceeded that of earlier, equivalent peri- poverishes rather than enriches." In es- ods when cropland expansion accounted sence, Daly pointsto an economic for virtually all growth in output. In the threshold with profound implications. headlong rush to meet the demand for As currently pursued, economic activity food, many countries overexpanded could be approaching a level where fur- their cropland base. Farmers plowed ther growth in the gross world product land that was steeply sloping, and hence costs more than it is worth.7 vulnerable to water erosion, or so arid The burning of fossil fuels literally that it was easily eroded by wind. Besides fueled industrial expansion throughout contributing to price-depressing sur- the century and remains at the heart of pluses, such unsustainable production many Third World developmentplans. cannot be supported indefinitely. Sev- Yet the buildup of atmospheric carbon eral countries are already reducing the dioxide attributable to that energy path amount of land planted to crops.8 threatens to make the earth far warmer The negative side effects of this cen- than at any time in human history. The tury's twentyfold expansion of economic cost to farmers of adjusting to new tem- activity are now becoming inescapable. perature and rainfall regimes could de- Whether through spreading forest dam- prive agriculture of the investment capi- age, a changing climate, or eroding soils,

23 Threshol of Change (7) thepursuit of short-term economic share of unhealthy trees had climbedto growth at the environment'sexpense 50 percent. Something will exact a price. As the natural inadvertently systems had tipped the balance withinforest sys- that underpin economies deteriorate, tems, triggering widespread decline.,0 actions that make goodsense eaviron- Scientists believe that pollutantsfrom mentally wil: begin toconverge with the burning of fossil fuelsare behind the those that make goodsense econom- 3preading forest damage in centraland ically. But thatconvergence may not northern Europe, whichnow covers occur before irreversible changes have more than 19 million hectares. (See unfolded. Chapter 9.) But the precisemechanisms at work are surrounded with uncertainty. Curiously, the destruction unfoldeddur- ing a period when theuse of fossil fuels had more or less leveled offin many CROSSING NATURAL countries, including West Germany.The long-term, cumulative effects ofchemi- THRESHOLDS cal stress apparently have overwhelmed Sometimes a natural thresholdcan be the trees' levels of tolerance,making defined fairly precisely, and theconse- them less able tocope with natural quences of breaching that threshold stresses such as extreme cold, wind, in- known with a reasonable degree ofcer- sects, or drought.11 tainty. If wood harvesting exceedsan- New light recently was shedon thresh- nual forest growth, for example, thevol- olds of acidification when scientistsat ume of standing timber will diminish, the Freshwater Institute inManitoba, and it will do so at arate directly tied to Canada, reported their findingsfrom how much the sustainable yieldhas been purposefully acidifying a small in exceeded. Similarly, ina , if the northwestern Ontario. Overan eight- annual fish catch exceeds therate of re- year period, they increased the lake's placement, the stock of fish will gradu- acidity from a pH of 6.8to 5.0 and docu- ally dwindle. mented how the.cosystem changed With many of the naturalsystems now along the way. At pH 5.9, forexample, the population of one shrimp speciesde- at risk, however, thresholds are not well clined defined, systemicresponses to threshold dramatically,fathead minnow failed to reproduce, andone species of crossings are not well understood, and crustacean the consequences of those crossingsare disappearedaltogether. Wilen the pH fell below 5.4,no species largely incalculable. Moreover, thresh- of fish was able to reproduce. old effects are now appearing insystems At that level of acidity, the lake wouldbecome of continental and global scale, devoid of fish within The onset of forest damage inthe a decade. Many lakes and streams in Scandinaviaand early eighties took West Germanscien- eastern North America al e believedto tists and foresters by surprise,despite have acidified in such a the nation's long tradition of meticulous way. Many more remain vulnerable as acid rainpersists.' 2 . In 1982, rough esti- Scientists also have documented mates placed the damage at 8 percent of acid- ification thresholds in soils, thecrossing the nation's trees. Just oneyear later, a of which may irreversibly damage thorough survey showed that 34 terres- percent trial ecosystems. The chemistryof soils of the trees were yellowing andlosing is determined largely by natural foliage. And by the acid and summer of 1984 the chemical inputs and therate of rock and

24 (8) State of theorld-1987 weathering, which releases ele- El Niiio drought of 1982 and 1983 ments that neutralize acidity. In some tipped the balance by reducing soil cases, soils cannot buffer all of the acid- moisture to a level below that needed to ity added by fossil fuel pollutants, and, protect the forest from fire. U.S. scien- as a result, their chemistry markedly tists studying the fires concluded that changes. The level of acidity increases, they -were ecological events of major vitalnutrients are leached out, and proportionsthathave profoundly sometimes elements toxic to plants affected the human, plant and animal such as aluminumare released. Severe communities of a tropical ecosystem al- soil acidification has already occurred in ready subjectedtonumerous pres- heavily polluted industrial regions, in- sures." " cludingextensiveareasof Eastern Far away, in the Ivory Coast, some Europe that now resemble a wasteland. 450,000 hectares of forest were de- In parts of southwestern Sweden, soil stroyed by fire during the 1983 drought, acidity has increased tenfold over the apparently linked to similar human pres- last 60 years. If acid rain continues una- sures. And in neighboring Ghana, fires bated, susceptible soils will acidify fur- during the same drought destroyed not ther; once severely degaded, they may only an extensive stand of forest, but take decades, if not centuries, to re- also 10 percent of the country's cacao cover.' 5 plantations. With pressures building on Whiletemperate-zoneforestsare rain forests throughout the tropics, the being pushed beyond a threshold of pol- moisture level below which they become lution tolerance, those in the tropics are more vulnerable to fire is likely to be being driven below a critical moisture crossed in an ever-widening area.16 threshold. Conventional wisdom holds In agriculture, an important threshold that tropical rain forests are typically too is crossed when the rate of soil erosion wet to burn naturally, but in late 1982 exceeds that of new soil formation. Over and early 1983 some seven forest fires long stretches of geologic history, soil spread through Indonesia's East Kali- material accumulated faster than wind mantan province and Malaysia's Sabah and water washed it away, yielding the province, both on the island of Borneo. thin mantle of rich topsoil on which the "'hey consumed 3.5 million hectares of world's foodisproduced. In recent tropical rain forest, an area almost the decades, the intensification of farming size of Taiwan and equal to nearly half practices and the extension of agricul- the average annual loss of moist tropical ture into marginal areas have pushed the forests from all causes." rate of topsoil loss beyond that of new soil formation on an estimated one third of the world's cropland." Satellite data show that some 16 The world is now uncomfortably close to what may be the most economically percent of India's forest cover was costly threshold crossing of all. For at lost between 1973 and 1981. least a century, the annual release of car- bon to the atmosphere from human ac- tivitiesmainly fossil fuel combustion The forest that ignited in Kalimantan and deforestationhas exceeded the and Sabah had been degraded and de- uptake of carbon by terrestrial vegeta- stabilized by land clearing for resettle- tion and the oceans. As a result, carbon ment programs, slash-and-burn farm- dioxide has been building up in the at- ing, and commercial logging. The severe mosphere. Analyses of air trapped in Thresholds of Change (9) Paris Per Million million and 120 million goats and 400 are steadily reducing vegetative cover. Satellite cinta show that some 16 percent of India's forest cover was lost between 1973 and 198 L With lessvege- 350 tation to protect soils and help retain rainfall, and desertifi- cation are spreading." 300 As the human population continuesto grow, the earth's biological systems are becoming less able to adequatelysup- 250 port it. An increasing share of the earth's netprimaryproductivity(thetotal amount of fixed biologically throughphotosynthesisminusthe amount of energy respired by plants) Is 1800 1 50 1900 1950 2000 being spent on meeting human de- Figure 1J. Mmospheric Levels of Carbon mands. Stanford University biologist Dioxide, 1800-1986 Peter M. Vitousek and his colleagueses- timate that nearly 40 percent of thepo- indicate that the atmospheric tential net primary productivityon land carbon dioxide level in 1860 was about is now used directly or indirectly by 260 parts per million (ppm). Today CO2 human populationsmostly for food measures 346 ppm, a 30-percent in- production but also for fiber, lumber, crease. Just since 1958, when scientists and fuel--or is lost as a result of human began routinely monitoring CO2, the activities. The portion remaining tosus- concentration has risen 9 percent. (See tain all other species, and to maintain the Figure 1-1.)" integrity of natural systems, gets smaller Climate modelers warn that if the CO2 and smaller as the size and demands of concentration approaches double prein- the human population mount. Deprived dustrial levels, a dramatic change in cli- of needed energy, natural supportsys- mate will result. By pushing the release tems could begin to deteriorate on a of CO2 into the atmosphere above the large scale.2I rate at which it could be assimilated by Identifying environmental thresholds natural systems, we have crossed and pinpointing when theywill be one crossed are not easy tasks. To havepre- threshold. But we can still avoid crossing dicted the onset of pollution-induced a second threshold: the level of atmo- forest damage, for example, would have spheric CO2 that will cause anunprece- required detailed knowledge of how dented and irreversible change in cli- trees respond to various levels of pollu- mate.19 tion and of how natural stresses and pol- Complex interactions between vegeta- lutants jointly affect trees,as well as a tion, soils, and water supplies are also finely tuned monitoring system for being altered as human demandsover- tracking forest health. Such extensive whelm the regenerative capacities of data and depth of understanding simply local biological systems. In India, forex- do not exist yet For most naturalsystems. ample, the demands of 785 millionpeo- This inability to recognize thresholds ple for food and fuelwood and thegraz- and predict when they will be breached ing and browsing demands of 260 makes efforts to relieve resource imbal- 26 (w) State of the World-1987 ances and environmental stresses all the farm tractor fleet quadrupled, world irri- more crucial. In the tropics, for instance, gated area tripled, and fertilizer use in- 10 trees are being cut for every 1 creased ninefold. Coal is used to fabri- planted. The ratio is 29 to 1 in Africa. cate the steel in tractors and natural gas Apart from the gradual loss of fuelwood is widely used to synthesize nitrogen fer- and wood product supplies, is the integ- tilizer, but it is oil that provides most of rity of larger systems at stake? Will, for the energy for modern farming.23 example, losses of forest cover over a Given agriculture's heavy reliance on broad area affect regional hydrologic cy- oil, trends in oil production and prices cles? Will extensive in the directly affect efforts to expand food out- Amazon impair the capacity of that trop- put. Agriculture's share of total world oil ical system to recycle rainfall inland, set- use remains small, so an absolute short- ting in motion a self-reinforcing process age of oil for food production is not an that will dry out the Amazonian region? immediate concern. But the economics Some evidence suggests that this may al- of food production are greatly shaped by ready be happening, but whether a the price of oil. Moreover, in contrast to threshold will be breachedleading to some other important oil-using activi- irreversible changes in the climate and ties, such as electricity generation, agri- vegetationOfthe Amazonis un- culture does not appear to be reducing known.22 its reliance on oil, which makes it more vulnerable to future price increases. The worldwide production of oil and grain have moved in opposite directions since1978.(See Figure1-2.) Both OIL DEPLETION AND FOOD moved steadily upward from 1950 to PRODUCTION 1978, but then oil production turned downward while that of grain continued Atmid-century,worldagriculture Billion crossed a major threshold in its efforts to Tons feedaglobalpopulationthathad reached2.5billion.As population 4- growth accelerated and the expansion of Sources: US. Dept. of Agriculture cropland slowed, farmers were forced and Amer. Petroleum Inst. for the first time to rely primarily on rais- ing land productivity. The crossing of this population/croplandthreshold started a rise in the oil intensity of world food production that has continued to date. Notwithstanding pockets of modern- Grain in, I , the world's farmers were still largely self-sufficient in energy in 1950, relying on wastes for fertilizer and draft animals fortillage power. 950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Since then, however, the agricultural use of energy has multiplied sevenfold. (See Figure 1.2. World Oil and Grain Production. Chapter 7.) Between 1950 and 1985, the 1950.86

27 Threshol of Change (ri) to go up. More importantly, the demand use of energy-intensive inputs continued for grain is projected to continue to rise to increase, but at a slower rate. Notwith- until at least the middle of the next cen- standing the drop during 1986,oil tury, yet oil production is projected to prices inevitably will rise, and in thepro- decline over this period. Efforts to boost cess they will pullall energy prices crop output by using more energy-inten- broadly upward. Higher energy prices sive inputs will make agriculture more will make it more difficult to restore the dependent on oil at a time when oil sup- economic gains needed in the Third plies are diminishing.24 World to boost per capita purchasing The best available indicator of the en- power among the poorly fed. And they ergy intensity of food production is the will, of course, further raise the costs of amount of energy used to produce a ton agricultural inputs. of grain. Between 1950 and 1985, this As thetwenty-firstcenturyap- more than doubled, rising from the proaches, two issues are of paramount equivalent of 0.44 barrels of oil to more concern in the oil/food relationship. than 1 barrel. (See Table 1-2.) The oil One isthe increasein competition equivalent of energy used in farming in among different oil-using sectors of the 1985 totaled 1.9 billion barrels, less than economy as total petroleum production one tenth the world's petroleum output diminishes. The second is the location of of 21 billion barrels.25 oil reserves. The increase in the price of oil and in By 1986, nearly half of all oil discov- energy prices generally during the sev- ered had already been consumed. In enties raised the cost of inputs on which North America, which produces nearly farmers now depend so heavily to raise one fourth of the world's grain, four productionfuel for tractors and irriga- fifths of all the oil discovered to date has tion pumps, fertilizer, and pesticides. already been burned. Current proven After the oil price hikes, agriculture's U.S. reserves in the United States total Table 1-2. World Agricultural Energy Use and Grain Production,1950-85 Energy Used Energy Use in Grain to Produce a Year Agriculture Production Ton of Grain (million barrels (barrels of of oil equivalent) metric tons) oil equivalent) 1950 276 624 0,44

1960 545 841 0.65

1970 970 1,093 0.89

1980 1,609 1,423 1.13

1985 1,903 1,667 1.14 SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute estimates based on U.S. Department of Agriculture data; David Pimentel, Energy Utilization in Agriculture; Gordon Sloggcti. Energy in /LS. Agriculture; W.R. Rangeley," and Drainage in thr World- and -IrrigationCurrent Trends a..d A Future Perspective."

d (r2) State of the World--1987 36 billion barrels, enough to supply U.S. oil reserves but only 4 percent of the needs for less than eight years at current world's people. Moreover, the Middle rates of use. (See Table I-3.) Without East's share of global reserves is rising, the jump of one fifth in oil imports in since reserves outside the region are 1986, the U.S. economy would be facing being depleted more rapidly. Despite some difficult adjustments.26 the difficulties the members of the Orga- Third World countries with rapidly nization of Petroleum Exporting Coun- rising food demands, small oil reserves, tries have had in agreeing on a produc- and financial constraints on expanding tion strategy, the growing Middle East oil imports could be in for some trau- control of the world's oil is setting the matic times. The Indian subcontinent, stage for price rises in the not too distant with a billion people to feed now and future. With petroleum reserves concen- another billion projected to be added trated in one region and with food pro- before population growth stops, has less duction becoming more oil-dependent, than 1 percent of the world's oil re- food security and accesstooilare serves. China isin somewhat better becoming closely entwined. shape with little population growth pro- Agriculture cannot expandindefi- jected, yet it also has a billion people, nitely its use of petroleum over the next and just 3 percent of the world's current several decades if oil production is de- oil reserves. clining. Ever expanding oil-based agri- The Middle East, with reserves of 398 culture simply is not sustainable, and this billion barrels, lies at the other end of underlines the need for food production the spectrum. It has 56 percent of global technt,1ogies that are less energy-inten- sive. (See Chapter 8.) In addition, the Table 1-3. World Oil Reserves by prospect of higher energy prices sug- Region, 1985 gests that the real cost of producing food is likely to rise. If it does, the affluent of Share of the world will adjust by boosting the Current OilTotal Oil share of their incomes used to purchase ReservesReserves' food. But for those on the lower rungs of (billion the global economic ladder, the only ad- barrels) (percent) justments possible may be cuts in con- North America 43 6 sumption of the sort seen in Africa since Latin America 84 12 1970 and in Latin America since 1981. Western Europe 26 4 Africa 56 8 Middle East 398 56 Soviet Union 61 9 China 18 3 THE COSTS OF CROSSING Indian 4 NATURAL LIMITS Subcontinent Rest of World 18 3 Natural thresholds are not merely of scientific interest; the consequences of Total 708 100 crossing them can directly affect econo- 'Total does not equal 100 due to rounding. mies and people's livelihoods. Defor- SOURCE: British Petroleum Company, BP Statistical estation is driving up firewood prices in Review of World Enetgy (London: 1986). scores of Third World countries. Exces-

29 Thresholof Change (13) Table 1-4, India: Index of Real Prices for continuing rapid depletion of India's Food and Fuelwood in 41 Urban Centers, woodlands, the rise in fuelwood prices is 19W-84 likely to continue and perhapseven ac- 1960 1977 celerate. 1980 1984 Dozens of developing countries are Food 100 106 102 102 feeling the economic effects of defores- tation. Many that were onceexporters of Fuelwood 100 116 140 165 forest products have become importers SOURCE: B. l3owondcr ci al., Deforestation and Foe!. astheir woodlands have diminished wood Use in Urban Centres (Hyderabad, India: Centre while their demand for wood products for Energy, Environment, and Technology and Na- has climbed. Deforestation haswors- tional Remote Sensing Agency, 1985). ened flooding and the silting ofreser- voirs in some areas. In India, damages sive soil erosion is contributing to reduc- from flooding below disrupted Hima- tions in per capita food production in layan watersheds averaged $250 million many more. The economic costs of some annually during the early eighties. Some approaching thresholds, such as CO2- Central American nations have had induced , are only begin- to ration electricity because siltationre- ning to be assessed. Unfortunately,a duced the reservoir capacities at hydro- lack of integrated research makes it diffi- electric facilities.27 cult to detect linkages between the econ- omy and its envi:onmental underpin- The excessive erosion of soilswhich, like forests, are a renewableresource if nings. As a result, many of the economic properly managedimposes numerous consequences of environmental deterio- economic costs. In four countries that ration are only realized after the fact. contain roughly a quarter of Africa's In many developing countries, fire- populationMozambique, Nigeria, Su- wood is as vital to local economies as oil dan, and Tanzaniacrop yields in the is to the global economy. The depletion mid-eighties were lower than in the early of forests in some areas has pushed fuel- fifties, in part because of heavy topsoil wood prices up almost as fast as those losses. (See Table 1-5.) The extension for petroleum-based kerosene. Between of agriculture onto marginal landmay 1972-75 and 1980-82, the forested also have contributed to this decline in areas within 100 kilometers of India's 41 largest cities collectively diminished bya Table 1-5. Grain Yields Per Hectare in third. (See Chapter 3.) Fuelwood prices Four African Countries With Declining in these cities, which increased quite Yields, 1950-52 to 1983-85 slowly from 1960 to 1977, rose some 42 percent in real terms between 1977 and Average Yields 1984. Food prices, by comparison,re- Country mained remarkably stable. (See Table 1950-52 1983-85Change 1-4.) (kilograms) (percent) Rising firewood prices directly dimin- Nigeria 760 714 - 6 ish prospects for improved livelihoods Mozambique 620 545 -12 among the poor, who are forced to Tanzania 1,271 1,091 -14 spend more of their small incomeson Sudan 780 479 -38 cooking fuel. In extreme cases, fuelwood scarcity reduces some families toone hot souRcE: U.S. Department of Agriculture, World In- dices of Food and Agricultural Production 1950-85(un- meal a day. Unfortunately, given the published printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1986). (r4) State of the WorldI987 cropland productivity, which among the suffer losses averaging $1 billion annu- four countries averaged some 17 per- ally through the middle of the next cen- cent over three decades. In agrarian tury." economies, declining crop yields often Some of the economic consequences translate into falling incomes and living of forest damage are felt outside the in- standards. dustry itself. In Switzerland, for exam- Ironically,fossilfuel combustion ple, where 36 percent of all forests now quite literally the engine behind this cen- show signs of damage, officials are con- tury's remarkable industrial expansion cerned about the increased risk of land- could well have some of the costliest slides as dying trees are removed in the economic consequences of all. Each year Alpine regions. Wintertime avalanches power plants, automobiles, home fur- will become more commonplace in some naces, and other technologies that burn mountainous Swiss villages, forcing vil- fossil fuels release 5 billion tons of car- lagers to evacuate. The use of roads and bon into the atmosphere, a global rate of ski trails will also become riskier, threat- one ton per person. Coal and oil com- ening the tourist industry that underpins bustion release about as much sulfur and the economy in some of Switzerland's nitrogen oxides as are released from all alpine cantons." natural sources combined. In many in- Worldwide, the costs of adjusting to a dustrial countries, pollutants from fossil greenhouse-gas induced warming of the fuels annually cause billions of dollars of earth may loom the largest. Agriculture, damage toforests,crops,, a highly climate-dependent sector, will building materials, and human health.28 face numerous adjustments. (See Chap- ter 9.) The existing pattern of world crop production evolved in response to In Switzerland, officials are con- particular climatic regimes that have cerned about increased risk of been more or less stable over the last few centuries. The global warming will bring landslides as dying trees are re- not only higher temperatures, but also moved in Alpine regions. changes in rainfall pact i.s. As a result, areas that do not nov ed irrigation and drainage systems may require them Forest damage, which in Europe now to sustain crop production. Water sup- covers an area the size of Austria and plies could diminish in some regions, East Germany combined, could impose forcing farmers to take land out of irri- the heaviest medium-term economic gated production. Altogether, invest- losses. Dead and dying trees are being ments totaling hundreds of billions of salvaged and dumped on wood markets; dollars may be needed in the agricultural in the short run, lumber and pulp prices sector to maintain global food security. may drop. At some point in the future, One of the most feared consequences when trees cut prematurely would other- of the projected global warming is the wise have been harvested, a period of rise in sea level that will result from both shortages and rising wood prices could thermal expansion of the oceans and the occur. Along with these market disrup- melting of glaciers and polar caps. tions, foresters undoubtedly will face in- During this century, the ocean has been creasing forest management costs. Re- rising at just over one millimeter per searchers in Berlin estimate that the year, or one cenrimeter per decade. A West German forestindustry could 1-degree Cels;us increase in ocean tem-

31 Thresholds of Change 051 perature would raise sea level an es- timated 60 centimeters, or roughlytwo LESSONS FROM THE PAST feet.31 Contemporary societies are not the first Calculating the effect of the warming to cross important thresholds of natural on the earth's ice sheets is more compli- and social stability. Today we study the cated. Scientists agree that the warming archaeological sites of civilizations that will be more pronounced at the poles. If for various reasons could not sustain the earth as a whole warms by 2-4 de- themselves. In some cases, military in- grees Celsius, as is predicted with a dm:- vaders may have destroyed the social and bling of preindustrial CO2 levels, polar cultural fabric of the conquered people. temperatures are likely to rise 6--8 de- In others, however, the declineseems to grees. Current estimates suggest that the have spawned internally, with an insidi- rise in ocean levels from such a warming ous deterioration of environmental sup- would be on the order of one meter. port systems playing a central role. With greater temperature increases,sea Severalthousandyearsago,the level would of course rise further.32 Mesopotamian civilization thrived ina Coastal areas are obviously most at fertile plain between the Tigris and Eu- risk from rising seas. Many major cities phrates rivers. Supported by an impres- are close to sea level, including Shang- sivesystem of irrigatedagriculture, hai, London, and New York. Low-lying, Mesopotamian society became a seed- densely populated regions of Asia, in- bed of discovery, and is today credited cluding parts of Bangladesh and In- with developing writing, the wheel, and donesia and the deltas of the Indus, Me- domesticoted cereals. Sometime around kong, and Chang Jiang (Yangtze) rivers, 2400 B.C., however, the productivity of would be especially threatened. its aricultural land began to decline. Faced with increased risks of flooding Lack of underground drainage for irri- and inundation, governments would gated land had caused the to have to decide whether to abandon such rise near the surface, a situation that low-lying regions, evacuating popula- often occurs in irrigated areas today. In dry climates, evaporation of this water tions to higher elevations, or to build leaves the soil surface covered with dikes much as the Dutch have doneto a reclaim land from the Zuider Zee. The layer of salt that greatly reduces crop costs of protecting the rice-growing productivity." plains and deltas of Asia and the densely This process occurs gradually, and its significancemay haveescapedthe populated coastal regions found throughout the world are incalculable. Mesopotamian agriculturalists. Records indicate that yields of barley, whichac- One 2.4-kilometer dike completed by counted for 84 percent of the society's the Dutch in the Scheldt in cereals production, declined 65 percent 1986 to minimize the risk of flooding over several hundred years. Salinization from severe storms cost $2.4 billion. For forced the Mesopotamians to completely some poor countries, such as Ban- abandon production of wheat.35 gladesh, the costs of coping with a rising Archaeological evidence suggests that ocean level combined with the agricul- political weaknesses, civil strife, andwar- tural adjustments needed to adapt to cli- fare eventually caused the collapse of mate change could deprivr: the nation of Mesopotamian civilization. But the de- the investment capital needed to im- cline of sociopolitical structures may prove living standards." have partially been triggered by the de- (16) State of the orldI987 dine of the food-producing system. As New insights into this theory emerged researchers Thorkild Jacobsen and Rob- recentlythroughtheworkof an- ert Adams wrote in 1958: "Probably thropologist John W.G. Lowe. He de- there is no historical event of this magni- veloped a model that mathematically tude for which a single explanation is describes Mayan societyincluding adequate, but that growing soil salinity variables such as population growth, per played an important part in the breakup capita productivity, and the distribution of Sumerian civilization seems beyond of laborand then introduced various question."36 stress factors to simulate how the Mayan Some centurieslater,in the New society would respond. Lowe describes World, a major center of Mayan civiliza- his findings as "a tale of two thresh- tion arose in the highlands and coastal olds."33 areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, and The first threshold defines a critical southern Mexico. Over many centuries, degree of food shortage at the local level the Mayans developed a sophisticated below which his simulated Mayan system administrative and social structure, tech- recovers and returns to normal condi- niques for terracing hillsides and drain- tions, but above which it destabilizes and ing swamps to cultivate rnaize, and rich collapses. The second describes a point cultural traditions.37 at which the frequency of local collapse brings the whole Mayan system into an unstable state. Lowe's simulation further The decline of Mayan sociopoliti- suggests that some external pressure cal structures may have partially could then drive this weakened society to collapse within a relatively short pe- been triggered by the decline of the riod of time. The overall pattern of the food-producing system. simulated decline apparently is consist- ent with what the limited archaeological record suggests actually happened. At its zenith, Mayan society supported In the modern world, the aura of high a population estimated at 5 million, over technology, sophisticated industrial pro- half the size of Guatemala's population cesses, and a century of unprecedented today. Then around 750 A.D. the so- economic growth might easily lead us to called Classic Maya civilization, which think that we are immune from the kinds encompassed more than 100 individual of stresses the Mayans faced. Yet a centers, began to decline. Within less Mayan pondering that flourishing soci- than two centuries, the population fell to ety from its pinnacle in the early eighth one tenth its previous level and this ad- century would probably never have be- vanced New World culture essentially lieved it could deteriorate so rapidly. disintegrated.38 A large-scale nuclear war poses the Uncovering the exact causes of such a most obvie. Is threat of total destruction dramatic decline from the physical ruins today. Yet successful prevention of nu- is a monumental task, one that has so far clear war by no means assures the per- eluded archaeologists. But many have sistence of modern societies. Historical come to believe that the burgeoning accounts of societal decline portray corn- Mayan population may have outgrown plex syndromes of stress, often unrecog- its agricultural resource base, and that nizable in their early stages, to which the resulting food shortages and social some regions and perhaps the world as pressures unraveled the social and polit- a whole are becoming increasingly sus- ical order. ceptible. Thresholds of Change (17) Population pressures and environ- of the many stresses evident todaymay mental stresses are mounting in many ultimately prove destabilizing. At the parts of the Third World. Per capita very least, we know that diminishing for- grain production in Africa has fallen by ests and soils, a changing climate, acid roughly one fifth since 1970, and in pollution, and dwindling oil supplies will Latin America, by 8 percent in just the impose real econoic costs, ifnot on last five years. In agrarian societies, de- our generation, then on that of our chil- clining per capita food production inevi- dren or grandchildren. At worst,a con- tably translates into declining per capita stellation of such stresses, especially if income. Both Africa and Latin America accompanied by military tensions, ulti- are projected to end this decade with mately could drive some nationsor re- lower income per person than they gions beyond critical thresholds ofsta- began it with.40 bility. Northern Africa,especially,isex- periencing clear symptoms of decline today. Deterioration of its agricultural resourcesits soils, forests, and water suppliescompoundsstressesstem- OUR NEW RESPONSIBILITY ming from rapid population growth,un- sound economic policies, and warfare. As we near the end of the twentiethcen- Per capita food production is diminish- tury, we are entering uncharted terri- ing and societal tensionsare rising. Over tory. Localized changes in natural sys- the last three years, Egypt, Morocco, the tems are now being overlaidwith Sudan, and Tunisia have eachex- continental and global shifts,some of perienced riots or demonstrations con- which may be irreversible. Everyday nected with increases in food prices. It is human activitiesdriving automobiles, difficult to believe that some 2,000years generating electricity, and producing ago, northern Africa's fertile fields made foodmay collectively cause changes of it the granary of the expanding Roman geological proportions within amatter Empire. Today, vast desertscover the of decades. region, and fully half of its grain supplies A 1986 report from the Earth Systems are imported.41 Science Committee of the U.S. National For the world as a whole, destabilizing Aeronautics and Space Administration stresses could arise from the global begins: "We, the peoples of the world, economy's pervasive dependence on oil. face a new responsibility forour global Hints of that vulnerability emerged with future. Through our economic and tech- the oil price increases of the seventies, nological activity we are now contribut- which in many countries triggeredram- ing to significant global changeson the pant inflation, declining rates of eco- earth within the span ofa few human nomic growth, and rising unemploy- generations. We have becomepart of ment. Whether oil-dependent nations the Earth System and one of the forces successfully adjust to a reconcentration for Earth change." The scientistsac- of oil production in the Middle East, and tively monitoring changes in naturalsys- to the inevitable decline in total produc- tems are among the first to recognize the tion, will strongly influence prospects new responsibility that we have brought for economic growth and social stability. upon ourselves.42 Lessons from the past can help sketch A human population of 5 billion,ex- the broad outlines of societal decline, panding at 83 million per year, hascom- but they offer little guidance as to which bined with the power of industrial tech-

4 (18) State of the World-1987 nologies to create unprece=71ented mo- cause dramatic chanes. Stresses may mentum toward human-intAuced envi- become self-reinforcirig, rapidly increas- ronmental change. We ha-ve inadver- ing the system's instaability. tently set in motion gran ca.ecological Economic systems, with which we are experiments involving the L-Atire earth perhaps more familia: r, display some of without yet having the mans to sys- these features. If a hr--avily indebted de- tematically monitor the resLyar1ts.43 veloping country rea=hes a point where The ozone depiction anc=1 pollution- it can no longer pay al_ 1 the interest on its induced forest damage desc --ibed in this debt, the unpaid interest is added to the chapter are relatively recent4discoveries. principal. The princiwal grows, further Yettheactivities believe-eatohave raising the interest. Fk....fter a point, with- brought About these thre.tsthe re- out debt forgiveness c=vr other outside in- lease of chlorofluorocarbont and fossil tervention, the debt mgrows out of con- fuel pollutantshave beenunder way trol,and the syste=m moves toward for decades. Taken further 2-3 y surprise, bankruptcy. Mexico is-= perhaps the most industrial societies may trapthemselves prominent of many developing coun- into costly and dubious tast-s of plane- tries now on this patht. tarymaintenanceperhap.s seeding Never have so marsmy systems vital to clouds in attempts to triger rainfall the earth's habitability..., been out of equi- where it has diminished w-Ath climatic librium simultaneous-Ay. New environ- change, or seeking means sp"..- protection mental problems also span time periods from increased exposure tcw.ultraviolet and geographic area that stretch be- radiation, or liming vast ar--eas of land yond the authority ofil" existing political sterilized by acidification. and social institutionsz No single nation The existence of thresho4ds beyond can stabilize the earthv's climate, protect which change occurs rapidlyand unpre- the ozone layer, pre erve the planet's dictably creates an urgent n,ed for early mantle of forests airul soils, or reverse warning systems and meclanisms for the acidification of lkes and streams. averting disastrous effects. linespite im- Only a sustained, intrnational commit- pressive progress, the scientafic ground- ment will suffice. The final report of the work has yet to be laid formonitoring World Commission orra Environment and the pulse of the earth's life-upport sys- Development that wasestablished by the tems. Meanwhile, the pace of change U.N. General Assem1=4, scheduled for quickens. release in the spring o...f 1987, could help We have crossed many nat..tral thresh- launch such a cornmitmtment.44 olds in a short period of tirale. No one Matters of the gls:=Dbal environment knows how the affected nammral systems now warrant the kind =3f high-level atten- will respond, much less how- changes in tion and concern tha est the global econ- natural systems will in tunaaffect eco- omy receives. World 1=eaders historically nomic and political systems_ We can be have cooperated to pawreserve economic reasonably certain that dforestation stability, even to the point of completely will disrupt hydrologic cycls and that overhauling the intermalational monetary will induc more skin system at the 1944 ct=mference in Bret- cancer. But beyond these first-order ton . Summit Tim-meetings are held effects, scientists can provic3.e little de- periodically to attempr t to iron out inter- tail. national economic pro-whlems. Policymak- Any system pushed out of oquilibrium ers carefully track eccezmomic indicators behaves in unpredictable wars. Small ex- to determine when adjustmentsna- ternal pressureJ may be s-a_ifficient to tional or internation_l_alare required. 35 Thresholds of Change (19) Similar efforts are needed to delineate place. Resulting economic and political the bounds of environmental stability, pressures could overwhelm the capacity along with mechanisms for making of governments and individuals to adjust prompt adjustments when these bounds adequately. Societies faced with multi- draw near. plying, self-generated stresses havetwo With so many natural systems becom- options: Initiate the needed reforms in ing unstable within such a short period population, energy, agricultural, and of time, discontinuous, surprising, and economic policies, or risk deterioration rapid changes may become common- and decline. Analyzing the Demographic Tap Lester R. Brown

In1945,the eminent demographer for large families. As in the first stage, Frank Notestein outlined a theory of birth rates and death rates are in equili- demographic change based on the effect brium, but at a much lower level. of economic and social progress on pop- This remarkably useful conceptualiza- ulation growth. His theory, known as the tion has been widely used by demogra- demographic transition, classified all so- phers to explain differential rates of cieties into one of three stages. Drawing growth and to project national and heavily on the European experience, it global populations. But as we approach has provided the conceptual framework the end of the twentieth century, a gap for demographic research ever since.' has emerged in the analysis. The theo- During the first stage of the demogra- rists did not say what happens when de- phic transition, which characterizes pre- veloping countries get trapped in the modern societies, both birth and death second stage, unable to achievc the eco- nomic and social gains that are counted rates are high and population grows upon to reduce births. Nor does the the- slowly, if at all. In the second stage, living ory explain what happens when sec- conditions improve as public health mea- ond-stage population growth rates of 3 sures, including mass immunizations, percent per yearwhich means a twen- are introduced and food production ex- tyfold increase per centurycontinue pands. Birth rates remain high, but death indefinitely and begin to overwhelm rates fall and population grows rapidly. local life-support systems. The third stage follows when economic Once incomes begin to rise and birth and social gains, combined with lower rates begin declining, the process feeds infant mortality rates, reduce the desire on itself and countries can quickly move An expanded version of this chapter appeared as to the equilibrium of the demographic Worldwatch Paper 74,Our Demographically Divided transition's third stage. Unfortunately, World. these self-reinforcing trends also hold Analyzing the Dernog-raphic Trap (21) for the forces that lead to ecological ecological support systems is lowering deterioration and economic decline: living standards in many of thesecoun- Once populations expand to the point tries, making itdifficult for them to where their demands begin to exceed do so. the of local forests, The risk in some countries isthat grasslands, croplands, or , they death rates will begin to rise inresponse begin directly or indirectly Lo consume to declining living standards, pushing the resource base itself. Forests and countries back into the first stage. In grasslands disappear, soils erode, land 1963, Frank Notestein pointedout that productivity declines, water tables fall, -such a rise in mortality would demon- or go dry. This in turn reduces strate the bankruptcy of all our [develop- food production and incomes, trigger- ment] efforts." For a number ofcoun- ing a downward spiral. tries,thatspecter of bankruptcyis growing uncomfortably close.2 Grouping geographic regions accord- ing to the rate of population growth shows five of them, containing 2.3 bil- A DEMOGRAPHICALLY lion people, in the slow growthcategory. (See Table 2-1,) Bracketed by Western DIVIDED WORLD Europe, which is on the verge of reach- Close to a generation ago, countries ing , and by were conveniently classified as devel- populous East Asia, which grows 1.0 oped or developing based strictly on percent annually, this group has a collec- economic criteria. Roughly one fifth of tive growth rate of 0.8 percentper year. the world was classified as developed In these societies, rising living standards and low fertility rates reinforce each and four fifths as developing. Whether other. living standards are improving or deteri- orating may be a more useful indicator than the differences in living standards among countries. By this measure, po- A demographic ally divided world is larized population growth rates are driv- likely to become more deeply di- ing roughly half the world toward a bet- vided along economic linesas well. ter future and half toward ecological deterioration and economic decline. As the nineties approach, new demo- The other five geographic regionsare graphic criteria are needed. The world is in the rapid growth group, which dividing largely into countries where con-. tains 2.6 billion peoplejustover half population growth is slow or nonexist- the world's total. This group is growing ent and where living conditions are im- at 2.5 percent per year, three timesas proving, and those where population fast as the slowly expanding half. Inac- growth is rapid and living conditions are tual numbers, the slow growth half adds deteriorating or in imminent danger of 19 million people eachyear while the doing so. In the second group are coun- rapid growth group adds 64 million, tries now in or entering their fourth dec- more than three times as many. For ade of rapid population growth. Not many countries inthis latter group, only have they failed to complete the rapid population growth and falling in- demographic transition, but the deteri- comes are now reinforcing each other. orating relationship between people and Many others, such as India and Zaire,are (22) State of the Wor1d-1987 Table 2-L World Population Growth by Geographic Region, 1986 Population Annual Region Population Growth Rate Increment (million) (percent) Slow Growth Regions Western Europe 381 0.2 0.8 North America 267 0.7 1.9 E. Eur. and Soviet Union 392 0.8 3.1 Australia and New Zeal. 19 0.8 0.1 East Asia' 1,263 1.0 12.6

Total 2,322 0.8 18.6

Rapid Growth Regions Southeast Asia2 414 2.2 9.1 Latin America 419 2.3 9.6 Indian Subcontinent 1,027 2.4 24.6 Middle East 178 2.8 5.0 Africa 583 2.3 16.3

Totals 2,621 2.5 65.5 'Principally China and Japan.2Principally Burma, Indonesia. the Philippines, Thailand. and Vietnam. 2Numbers may not add up to totals due to rounding. sotrucE: Population Reference Bureau, 1986 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: 1986). still registering increases in per capita in this region, Thailand and Indonesia, incomes, but they risk a reversal in this have good programs trend if they do not slow population and rapidly falling fertility. They may growth soon.9 well follow Chinaintothe small family These numbers signal just how demo- category. By contrast, the Philippines graphically divided the world has be- and Vietnam, with high birth rates and come. The demographic middle ground falling living standards, are unlikely to has almost disappeared. All regions are make the breakthrough to low fertility in either growing slowlyat 1 percent per the near future. year or lessor rapidlyat 2.2 percent Long-termpopulationprojections or more. Although a few specific coun- dramatize the diverging prospects for tries in the rapid growth regions are ap- countries in the slow and rapid growth proaching or have reached the third categories. (See Table 24.) The popula- stage of the demographic transition, tion of the United Kingdom, for exam- such as Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay in ple, is expected to level off at 59 million, Latin America, their populations are not just 5 percent above the current level. large enough to markedly influence re- West Germany's population is expected gional trends. tO stabilize at 52 million, some 15 per- Southeast Asia, home to some 414 cent below the current population. For million people, is probably the best can- the United States, population growth is didate for joining the slow growth group expected to halt at 289 million, roughly in the foreseeable future. Two countries one fifth larger than in 1986.

3 9 Analyzing the Demographic Trap Table 2-2. Projected Population Sizeat Stabilization, Selected Countries Annual Rate Size of Population of Population Population at Change Country in 1986 Growth Stabilization from 1986 (percent) (percent) Slow Groh Countries China 1,050 1.0 Soviet Union 1,571 + 50 280 0.0 377 + 35 United States 241 0.7 japan 289 + 20 121 0.7 128 United Kingdom 56 + 6 0,2 59 + 5 West Germany 61 0.2 52 15 Rapid Growth Countries Kenya 20 4,2 I 1 1 +455 Nigeria 105 3.0 Ethiopia 532 +406 42 2.1 204 +386 Iran 47 2.9 Pakistan 166 +253 102 2.8 330 Bangladesh +223 104 2.7 310 +198 Egypt 46 2.6 126 +174 Mexico 82 2.6 Turkey 199 +143 48 2.5 109 +127 Indonesia 168 2.1 India 368 +119 785 2.3 1,700 Brazil +116 143 2.3 298 +108 souRcE: World Bank World Devtlopment &port 1985 (NcYork: Oxford Univcrsity Press In stark contrast, Nigeria'spopula- Population tion, now just over 100 million, projectionsforthose is pro- Third World countries wherelife-sup- jected to reach 532 million beforeit port systems are already disintegrating stops growing toward the middle of the can only be described as projections of next century. If this were to happen, Ni- disaster, India's population isexpected geria would then have within itsborders to more than double, reaching 1.7 bil- nearly as many peopleas in all of Africa lion and making it the today, a sobering picture world's most to say the least. populous country, surpassingChina, Kenya's population is projectedto more around 2010. During the than quintuple before stabilizing, same period as is Mexico's population of 82 millionis pro- Ethiopia's, where a combination ofsoil jected to reach 199 million, just erosion and ill-conceived agricultural over four fifths that of the UnitedStates policies have already led to widespread today. starvation. Needless tosay, these projec- These wide variations in tions are unrealistic for the simple projected rea- population growth suggest thata demo- son that life-support systems will begin graphically divided world islikely to to collapse long before the additional become more deeply divided along numbers materialize. eco- nomic lines as sI Unless thisrelation-

o (24) Sla le of the WorldI987 ship between rapidly multiplying popu- terns Analysis published a study analyz- lations and their life-support systems ing the population-sustaining capacity of can be stabilized, development policies, land in 117 developing countries. Calcu- however imaginative, are likely to fail. lations were made of land productivity assuming three levels of agricultural in- puts: low, moderate, and high.4 The study concluded that at the low level of agricultural inputs, by the year 2000 some 65 countrieswith 1.1 bil- CARRYING CAPACITY lion peoplewould not be able to pro- STRESSES vide even the minimum level of nutri- tion. Their populations would The concept of carrying capacity has the numbers who could be sustained by long been used by biologists, but until 440 million, implying a heavy depen- recently was rarely considered by econo- dence on imported food, widespread mists. It focuses on interactions between starvation, or, more likely, both.5 a population, its activities, andthe sur- With the full range of modern agricul- rounding environment, and it highlights tural inputs, the number of countries un- natural thresholds that might otherwise able to feed their people at minimal lev- remain obscure. In its simplest form, the els dropped dramaticallyto 19, with a concept helps in understanding individ- total population of 104 million. Yet the ual biological systems such as forests or high cost of these inputs coupled with fisheries. But it also can be applied to an the recent growth of external indebted- entire ecosystem or even a country. ness indicate that many of these coun- Knowledgeable biologists can calcu- tries will not be able to afford much be- late rather precisely the carrying capac- yond the low level of inputs.6 ity of a particular system. A natural Unfortunately, even these numbers grassland can indefinitely support a set understate the problems facing develop- number of cattle or a somewhat larger ing countries. No effort was made in this number of sheep. A fishery will meet the study to determine whether the invest- protein needs for a certain number of ment needed for the various input levels people, and the forests surrounding a would be availableonly how their use village will supply the firewood for only would affect the land's carrying capacity so large a population. if they were available. If the numbers depending on these As in any set of projections, the as- forms of biological support become ex- sumptions here strongly influence the cessive, the systems will slowly be de- results. The first assumption was that all stroyed: When herds grow too large, possible land that could be cultivated livestock decimate . When would indeed be brought into produc- the fish catch exceeds a fishery's capacity tion; this included, for example, a seven- to replace itself, stocks dwindle and the fold expansion in Latin American crop- fishery eventually collapses. Where for- land, which would entail plowing vast est cutting exceeds regrowth, the forest portions of the Amazon. And no crop- cover diminishes. land was expected to be lost to degrada- This concept can also be applied to tion, an assumption that developments such basic resources as land and water. in Ethiopia and elsewhere have already In 1982, the U.N. Food and Agriculture invalidated. Second, it was assumed that Organization in collaboration with the no land capable of producing food for International Institute for Applied Sys- human consumption would be used to

41 Analyzing the Demographic Trap (25) support livestock. Third, no allowance as well as crop output. (See Table 2-3.) was made for green vegetables or non- In the two northernmost zones, where food crops, such as cotton, tea, and rainfall is lowest, sustainable agricultural coffee. and fuelwood yields are already being On the demand side, it was assumed matched or exceeded. In all countries that only the minimum nutritional stan- and all zones, forests have less capacity dards would be suisfied and that all food than croplands and grazing lands tosup- would be evenly distributed. Perhaps the port people sustainably. most important drawback of this study The actual population for theseven was that the projections went only to the countries in 1980 was 31 million-al- year 2000, failing to consider the inevita- ready well beyond the 21 million who ble further declines in cropland perper- could be sustainably supplied with fuel- son as population growth continues. wood. The result, of course, is rapid de- A more recent, more detailed study by forestation. The region's rural popula- the World Bank of seven West African tion of 27 million was still below the 36 countries analyzed the carrying capacity million who could be sustained agricul- of various ecological zones as delineated turally, but today's population growth by rainfall. Directed by Jean Gorse,a rates ensure that this carrying capacity French agronomist, the study gauged will also soon be exceeded.7 carrying capacity in terms of fuelwood In some situations, carrying capacity and food supplies, the latter including can be raised through the investment of the livestock products from grasslands capital and technology; in others itcan- Table 2-3. Measures of Sustainability in Seven AfricanCountries, by Ecological Zones, 19801

Food Fuelwood Agriculturally Actual Food Fuelwood Actual Fuel Sustainable Rural Dis-Sustainable Total Dis- Zone Population Population parity Population Population parity (million) Sahelo- Saharan 1.0 1.8 -0.8 0.1 1.8 -1.7 Sahelian 3.9 0.0 0.3 4.0 -3.7 Sahelo- Sudanian 8.7 11.1 -2.4 6,0 13.1 -7.1

Sudanian 8.9 6.6 2.3 7.4 8.1 -0.7 Sudano. Guinean 13.8 3.6 10.2 7.1 4.0 3.1

Total 36.3 27.0 9.3 20.9 31.0 -10.1 '13urkina Faso. Chad, Gambia. Mali. Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal.The five ecological zones are delineated by amounts of rainfall, SOURCE: World Bank, in the Sahellan and Sudanian Zones of Africa (Washington, D.C.: 1985),

2 (26) State of the orld-1987 not. With cropland, investment in mod- tility, reduced further by increasing wind ern inputs can raise dramatically its pop- and water erosion. Typically the end re- ulation carrying capacity. But no practi- sult is desert: a skeletal shell of soil con- cal and profitable means exist to raise sisting almost entirely of sand and lack- the yield of oceanic fisheries. The same ing in the fine particles and organic is true for the carrying capacity of range- matter that make soil productive. land, although in some countries, nota- bly New Zealand, an abundance of rain- fallmakesitworthwhiletoapply Uncontrolled population growth in chemical fertilizer. subsistence economies is degrad. One of the principal conclusions of the West African study was that no sig- ing the resource base throughout nificant increase in carrying capacity was Africa. possible without a technological break- though. Even though technologies exist, their use in these countries is not profita- As this process continues, it reduces ble. The World Bank team concluded local water supplies, which further low- that the -available intensive production ers carrying capacity. Although water techniques [that would increase the car- was not included in the Bank's assess- rying capacity] have not proven suffi- ment of West Africa, its scarcity is par- ciently remunerative for wide adoption tially a by-product of exceeding the sus- despite the pressure on land." As a re- tainablethresholdsofforestsand sult, the team notes that "desertification grasslands. With lower water retention has set in and crop yields are falling in and percolation, water tables begin w many areas."8 fall, and as is lost, its role in Unfortunately, the various support cycling water inland is diminished. systems cannot readily be separated: Ex- Although this discussion focuses on cessive pressures tend to spread from seven West African countries, this same one to another. Once the demand for basic process driven by the same forces fuelwood exceeds the sustainable yield namely, uncontrolledpopulation of local forests, it not only reduces tree growth in subsistence economiesis de- cover but also leads to soil erosion and grading the resource base throughout land degradation. When grasslands de- Africa. Breaches of carrying capacity teriorate to where they can no longer thresholds are also commonplace in the support cattle, livestock herders often Indian subcontinent, Central America, take to lopping foliage from trees, thus the Andean countries, and Brazil. For putting even more pressure on remain- example, ecologists James Nations and ing tree cover. Both contribute to a loss H. Jeffrey Leonard describe deforesta- of protective vegetation, without which tion and soil erosion in Central America both wind and water erosion of soil ac- as being of "crisis proportions.- They celerate, leading to desertificationa write that "the region's renewable re- sustained decline in the biological pro- sources are being depleted .. the long- ductivity of land. term consequences will be severe: de- A decline in the diversity of plant and clines in income and per capita food animal communities marks the onset of production; financial losses; and the sac- desertification. This in turn leads to a rifice of future economic opportuni- reduction of soil organic matter, a de- ties." cline in soil structure, and a loss of water In countries where rates of population retention capacity. It also lowers soil fer- growth remain high, a three-stage "eco-

4 3 Analyz ig the Demographic Trap (27) logical transition' erges that is al- most influential reason for this develop- most the reverse of the demographic ment was the 1973 oil price hike, rein- transition in that its end result is disas- forced by the 1979 price rise.12 trous.Inthefirststage, expanding Part and parcel of this globaleco- human demands are well within thesus- nomic slowdown was the loss ofmomen- tainable yield of the biological support tum in agriculture. Even as oil prices system. In the second, they are in excess were rising, soil erosion and desertifica- of the sustainable yield but still expand- tion were beginning to takea toll on ag- ing as the biological resource itself is riculture. Grain production, expanding being consumed. And in the final stage, at over 3 percent per year before 1973, human consumption is forcibly reduced has increased at only 2.3percent annu- as the biological system collapses." ally since then. Growth inper capita As human needs and numbers multi- grain output for the worfr1as a whole plied over the last generation,more since 1973 has been a negligible 0.4per- countries moved into the second stage of cent per year. If China is excluded, it is the ecological transition. Carryingca- almost nonexistent." pacitythresholdswerecommonly When oilprices climbed,political breached, often reducing food and fuel leaders of developing countrieswere self-sufficiency,raising external debt, under pressure to keep their economies and lowering living standards. Under- expanding rapidly so as to maintainper standing these trends in international capita gains, and many borrowed heavily development requires a mastery of ecol- to do so. This effort succeeded briefly, ogy as well as economics. National gov- but soaring interest rates combined with ernments and the international develop- the slowdown in the globaleconomy to ment community have been slow to take leave many countries heavily indebted carrying capacity into account when for- and unable to make even their interest mulating economic and population poli- payments. cies. As a result, much of the Third World now devotes the lion's share of export earnings to paying interest on external debts. In extreme cases, suchas the Sudan, 80 percent of export earningsare DIVERGING FOOD AND required to service debt. (See Table 2- 4.) With the weakening of oil prices in INCOME TRENDS early 1986, Mexico's debt rose to $102 billion. With Mexico unableto make all Throughout the third quarter of this the century, a rising global economic tide payments,internationallenders began adding the unpaid interestto the was raising incomes everywhere. Be- outstanding debt.14 tween 1950 and 1973, when the world When the United Nations proclaimed economy expanded at a robust 5 percent the seventies the Decade of Develop- per year, incomes were rising in virtually ment, it was scarcely conceivable that all countries, regardless of theireco- half a dozen countries would experience nomic system or stage of development.11 declines in per capita grain production Since 1973, the global economy has greater than 20 percent over the follow- expanded at less than 3 percent peryear; ing 15 years. (See Table 2-5.) In three the decline is more dramatic inper countriesAngola, Haiti, and Iraqit capita terms, falling from justover 3 per- has fallen by half. Rapid population cent to scarcely 1percent. By far the growth,agricultural mismanagement,

4 4 (28) Stale of the World-1987 Table 2-4. Selected Debtor Countries Table 2-5. Rapid Population Growth Where Interest Payments on External Countries lit ith Declining Per Capita Debt Exceed .0 Percent a Export Grain Production, 1970-72 to 1985 Earnings, 1985 Grain Production Rate of Per Person Share of Population Export Growth- Annual Total Total Earnings Country 1986 Change Change External to Pay Country Debt Interest' (percent) - 1.7 - 19.0 (billion dollars) (percent) Kenya 4.2 Rwanda 3.8 - 0.3 4.0 Sudan 7 802 Uganda 3.4 - 1.6 - 19.0 Argentina 48 50 Iraq 3.3 - 5.7 - 54.0 Egypt 34 502 Zambia 3.3 - 2.2 - 25.0 Bolivia 4 42 Chile 21 41 Malawi 3.2 - 1.4 - 17,0 Liberia 3.1 - 0.4 - 5.0 Brazil 105 38 Nigeria 3.0 - 0.5 - 7.0 Mexico 97 33 Iran 2.9 - 0.5 7.0 Peru 15 29 Mali 2.8 - 0.4 - 5.0 Philippines 26 27 Ecuador 9 27 Egypt 2.6 - 1.5 - 18.0 'Percentages are higher if payments or principal Mexico 2.6 - 0.3 4.3 are included.2Export earningsdata from 1984. Angola 2.5 - 5.4 - 52.0 souacEs: Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, New Peru 2.5 - 2.1 - 24.0 York, private communication, November 9, 1986; Sudan data from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service,Agriadtural Outlook, Mozam- 2.5 - 5.0 -49.0 Washington, D.C., October 1985. bique Haiti 2.3 - 5.1 - 50.0 environmental degradation, and war or Nepal 2.3 - 0.1 - 2.0 civil unrest have contributed in varying Ethiopia 2.1 - 0.9 - 11.0 measures to these declines. All too souacEs: Population data from Population Refer- often, the adverse effects of ecological ence Bureau,World Population Data Sheet 1986 deterioration are abetted by food price (Washington, D.C.:1985); grain production data policies that favor the cities and starve from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service,World Indices of Agricultural and the countryside of capital needed for in- Food Production 1950-85(unpublished printout) vestment. (Washington, D.C.: 1986) A comparison of trelids in Western Europe, the region wk:i the slowest pop- Africa's per capita output edged upward ulation growth, and Africa, with the fast- to a peak of 174 kilograms in the mid- est, illustrates graphically how different sixties, and then began to decline.15 population growth rates are driving By 1985, Western Europe produced grain production trends in opposite di- 501 kilograms per person and Africa rections. In 1950, Western Europe pro- only 150. Total grain production over duced somewhat more grain per capita the 35-year span increased in Western than Africa (234 kilograms to 157 kilo- Europe by 164 percent and in Africa by grams), but not a great deal more by in- 129 percent. The big difference between ternational standards. (See Figure 2-1.) the two continents was in population, Analyzing ihe Demographic Trap (29) Kilograms Table 2-6. Changes in Population and 600 Per Capita Income, Major Countries, Source: us. Depi. of 1980-86 Agriculture Cumulative Change in 40 Rate ofPer Capita Western Europe PopulationIncome, Country Growth 1980-86 (percent) 200 - Rising Incomes China 1.0 +58 Africa South Korea 1.6 +34 Japan 0.7 +21 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 India 2.1 +14 West Germany -0.2 +10 Figure 24. Per Capita Grain Production in United States 0.7 +10 Western Europe and Africa, 1950-86 United Kingdom 0.2 +12 France 0.4 + 3 which increased in Europe by perhaps one fifth at the same time that it easily Declining Incomes doubled in Africa.16 Nigeria 3.0 -28 Closely paralleling these diverging Argentina 1.6 -21 trends are those in per capita income. Philippines 2.5 -16 The patterns in some of the world's Peru 2.5 -11 more populous countries illustrate the Kenya 4.2 - 8 divergence that is becoming the hall- Mexico 2.6 - 7 mark of this decade. (See Table 2-6.) Sudan 2.9 - 7 While Mexico's income fell by some 7 Brazil 2.3 - 6 percent between 1980 and 1986, that of souRcEs: Population growth rates from Population China increased 58 percent. Per capita Reference Bureau, 1986 World Population Dom Sheet income in Nigeria has fallen by nearly a (Washington, D.C.; 1986); changes in per capita third thus far during the eighties, while income for 1979-84 from B. Blazic-Metzner, and for 1985 from David Cieslikowski, Economic Anal- South Korea's has increased by that ysis and Projections Department, World Bank, amount. Most of the major countries in Washington, D.C., private communications, July Africa and all of the major Latin Ameri- 25 and October 22. 1986. can onesArgentina, Brazil, and Mex- icohave experienced income declines tenth from 1980. Barring a miracle, during this decade. Latin America, like Africa, appears likely During the seventies, Africa became to end the decade with a lower per capita the first region to experience a decade- income." long decline in per capita income during Will the forces that have slowed eco- peacetime since the Great Depression. nomic growth during the seventies and All indications are that during the eight- eighties and reversed the historical rise ies, the situation in Africa will worsen in per capita income in two regions lead further. In addition, itis likely to be to similar results elsewhere? This could joined by Latin America, where regional happen on the Indian subcontinent, incomes in 1986 were down nearly one which now has over 1 billion people, if 46 (30) State of the Wor ldI987 population growth there is not slowed area continued to grow, but not nearly as soon. Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pa- fast as population. In the more densely kistan all have population growth rates populated parts of the Third World, the well in excess of 2 percent per year. And result was growing rural landlessness the subcontinent is beset with serious lack of access to land either through environmental stresses. ownership or tenancy. As Table 2-6 indicates, many of the Though fueled by population growth, couim ies with rapid population growth rural landlessness is exacerbated by the have declining incomes, whereas almost concentrationof landownership.In all those with minimal or zero popula- Latin America, the most extreme case, it tion growth are experiencing income is not uncommon for 5 percent of the rises. But this is not a simple cause-and- populace to own four fifths of the farm- effect relationship. Among other things, land. Land distribution is at the heart of countries that cannot manage their pop- the civil war in El Salvador, and is un- ulation growth may not be able to man- doubtedly the most sensitive political age their economies very well either. issue that the government of Brazil Where energy is no longer cheap and faces.18 abundant and where the natural re- The largest landless riopulations are source base is deteriorating, countries concentrated in South Asia, principally with rapid population growth are finding on the Indian subcontinent. East Asia it difficult to raise incomes. Thus, differ- today has the largest population of any ential population growth rates are not geographic region, but it has benefited the sole cause of rising or falling per from the early postwar land reforms un- capita incomes, but they often exercise a dertaken in China, Japan, and South decisive influence. Korea. In China, although all land is owned by the state, farmers have access to it through long-term leases.I9 Although the degree of landlessness varies among Bangladesh, India, and Pa- kistan, there are broad similarities. A GROWING RURAL World Bank study reports that the three LANDLESSNESS countries now have over 30 million land- less rural households, consisting of fami- In many ways, the most fundamental lies who neither own nor lease land. As- shift in the population/resource rela- suming an average of only 6 people per tionship during the demographic transi- household, the subcontinent's landless tion's middle stage occurs between peo- rural population is nearly as large as the ple and land. Throughout most of total U.S. population. In addition, 22 human history, the gradual increase in percent of the cultivated holdings are human numbers was accompanied by a smaller than 0.4 hectares, not enough to slow expansion of the cropland area. As support a family, even when intensively populations grew, forests were cleared farmed. Another group of farmers has for farming. As land pressures built in between 0.4 and 1.0 hectares, not asu- Europe, the landless migrated to the ally enough to provide an adequate stan- New World. dard of living. A third group, farm fami- By the mid-twentieth century,the lies who cultivate between 1.0 and 2.0 amount of new land suitable for crop- hectares of land, accounts for some 21 ping was diminished just when popula- percent of allcultivated holdings in tion growth was accelerating. Cropland South Asia.2°

4 Analyzing the Demographic Trap The 30 million landless rural house- Where landownership is heavily con- holds, plus the near-landless ones (with centrated, the growth in landlessness less than 0.4 hectares), now represent can be curbed or even reversed by ini- close to 40 percent of all rural house- tiating land reform. In some countries, holds in South Asia. These people de- the base of landownershipcan also be pend heavily on seasonal agricultural broadened through resettlement. Un- employment for their livelihoods, and fortunately, Brazil and Indonesia, the increasingly on new jobs in the agricul- two countries that have invested heavily tural service industries that are spring- in resettlement in virgin tropical forests, ing up as farming modernizes. have done so at great ecologicalcost. Unfortunately,notnearly enough Another way to check the growth in work exists to employ fully the swelling landlessnessistoslowpopulation ranks of the landless and near-landless. growth through effective family plan- As a result, many live at the edge of sub- ning. Resettlement (where feasible) and sistence. And all indications are that the land reform can reduce landlessness in growth of landlessness in South Asia will the short run, but in the longrun only continue. In India alone, the number of population stabilization will work.21 landless rural households is projected to reach 44 million by the end of thecen- tury. (See Table 2-7.) In India alone, the number of land- For Africa, landlessness is a relatively less r xal households is projected new phenomenon, but one that is grow- to reach 44 million by the end of ing. Land hunger can be seen in thecon- flicts among people who are migrating the century. from eroded, worn-out fields in search of new areas. It can also be seen in the movement of farmers into re- The rural laniless invariably have far servesnot because they wish to destroy higher levels of malnutrition, lower the , but because the struggleto levels of education, and lower lifeexpec- survive on this -ridden continent tancies than others in society, In Bang- takes precedence over all other consid- ladesh,for example, those inrural erations. households who own no land or less than 0,2 hectares consumeon average Table 2-7. India: Landless Rural 1,924 calories a day. Those whoown 1.2 Households, 1961 and 1981, With hectares or more consume `?,..175 calo- Projections to 2000 ries per day, 23 percentmore. The dif- ference in protein intake is even greater Landless 28 percent on average. To be landless Year Households in an agrarian society isthus to be million) severely disadvantaged in the struggle for survival.22 1961 15 In societies such as Bangladesh, where existing holdings, already divided and 1981 26 subdivided, cannot be divided further, population growth translates into the 2000 44 landlessness that feeds unemployment souRCE: Radha Singha. Landlasness: A Growing Prob. and worsens income distribution. It is lem (Rome- U N Food and Agriculture Organiza. the source of migrants who inhabit the lion. 1984). shantytowns surrounding Third World

4 8 (32) State of the World-1987 cities andross national borders in but rather of interaction. Any meaning- search of work. This landless class, often ful analysis must take into account a con- outside the mainstream of development tinuousinteractionbetweendemo- and bereft of hope, is also a potential graphic, economic, environmental, and source of unrest. social or political trends. The analytical challenge is intimidat- ing, but the issue is a serious one, and an effort must be made. In an analysis of the turmoil in Central America, political an- POPULATION GROWTH AND alyst Sergio Diaz-Briquets argues that rapid population growth -has added CONFLICT pressure to labor markets already satura- The relationship between population ted with unemployed and underem- growth and social conflict has been ployed persons; it increases pressure on largely ignored by the social science re- the land area, it taxes governments' abil- ity to provide needed social services." search community, lost in the gap be- Further, it indirectly -plants seeds of tween demography and political science. discord by continuously increasing the Nazli Choucri of the Massachusetts Insti- ranks of unemployed youth and creating tute of Technology, a pioneer in re- stiffer competition among those trying search in this area, notes a continued to improve their lot in life, particularly in lack of awareness about it within the re- ossified social systems."24 search community. Howard Wiarda and When a society's population growth leda Siquiera Wiarda of the University of accelerates sharply, the age structure is Massachust us point out that policyrnak- increasingly dominated by young peo- ers also largely neglect this relationship ple. For example, in dozens of develop- in the formulation of both population ing countries 40 percent of the popula- and national security policies.23 tion is now under the age of 15. Difficult though they may be to mea- This shift can itself be a source of in- sure, numerous linkages exist between stability. When young people become so population growth and conflict, both numerous, they are likely to achieve a within and among societies. Conflict much higher profile in society. Changing arises when growing populations com- age structures also put pressure on so- pete for a static or shrinking resource cial institutions. Educational systems are base.Inequitable distribution of re- inundated with new students, initially for sourceswhether of income, land, or elementary schools and then for col- watercomplicates the relationship. In- leges. In parts of the Third World, the creased competition and conflict fray the tidal wave of youngsters hasover- social fabric that helps to maintain social whelmed the schools, making a mockery harmony. of compulsory education. One reason for the dearth of research Economic stresses also generate polit- on how population growth affects social ical conflict. As indicated earlier, the stability is the complexity of the relation- difference between a stationary popula- ship. To begin with, several fields of tion and a rapidly growing one can spell knowkdgeareinvolvedeconomics the difference between societies that are and ecology as well as demography and raising their living standards and those political science. In addition, the rela- that are suffering a sustained decline. A tionship between trends in these fields is 2-percent rate of economic growth in not a simple matter of cause and effect, West Germany or Denmark, which have

4 9 Analyzing the Demographic Trap (33) no population growth, will bring steady timi of river flowsamong countries progress. But in Kenya or Peru, where could become a contentious political population growth is rapid, it leadsto a issue. steady decline in living standards and One of the most neglected social is growing social unrest. sues relating to population growth is the For many developing countries, the contribution of crowding to humancon- global economic slowdown hascorne flict. The scientific literature in this just as record numbers of field young people is weak. Most research has been doneon are entering the job market. The specter animals. The Wiardas observe thatthese of growing numbers of restlessunem- studies -show a dose relationshipbe- ployed youngsters in the streets doesnot tween crowding and violence, but the convey an image of social tranquility. re- lationship is usually indirect... crowd- Foreign affairs columnist Georgie Anne ing does providea set of conditions, a Geyer notes, "Given what is coming context in which tension, violence, and unemployed youths roaming thestreets various forms of aberrant behaviorare in countries where half the population more likelyto occur.- With human often is under 18 years Ofage, with no populations, the effects of crowdingare prospect of job formation, hungry, and not easily separated from those ofpov- looking to irregular leaders to lead them erty, with which it is usually closelyas- in new and as yet unpredictablemove- sociated. Within societies, crowdingand mentsthere is little question thateven competition for jobs and land;nay exac- more political explosions are on the im- erbate long-standing religious, tribal,re- mediate horizon.-25 gional, or ethnic differences.27 When deterioratingenvironmental support systems can no longer support local populations, conflictscan arise as In parts of the Third World,the people are forced to migrate in search of tidal wave of youngsters has a livelihood. Often these -ecologicalre- over- fugees" cross national borders,a pro- whehned the schc,ols. cess now widespread within Africa. It is perhaps most noticeable in themove- ment of nomadic pastoralistsbeing Mexico and Egypt, two culturallycon- forced southward asa result of desertifi- trasting countries thatare beginning to cation. All too often these nomads, with feelthe effects of rapid population their herds and flocks, come into conflict growth, illustrate thestresses faced in with farmers in the regions theyare try- ing to enter.26 varying degrees EAroughout the Third World. Mexico's family planningpro- Intensified competition for renewable gram of the past decade has been right- resources such as water can be seen fully praised for its role in reducingbirth along the Nile River, where the countries rates. Yet, because the problem of rapid that depend on its flowEgypt, the growth was recognized too late, the Sudan, and Ethiopiaall have rapidly country's population is still growing2.6 growing populations. The competing percent annually. Mexico, home to 82 claims on the Nile couldgenerate con- million, adds 2.1 million peopleeach flict as water use grows andas the alloca- year. Over the remainder of this century, tion of its becomes literallya mat- some 15 million youngsters will enter ter of life or death. In a world where the job marketroughly 1 millionannu- industrial and agricultural expansions ally. The nation needsmore new jobs are keyed to additional water, the alloca- than ever before, but theeconomy is (34) Stale of lhe World1987 staggering under an external debt of Egypt, whose 50 million peeple make $102 billion. A broad-based deteriora- it the most populous Arab country, is tion of land resources and a scarcity of also suffering from a generation of rapid irrigation water are raising the depen- population growth. Adding 1.2 million dence on imported food in the country per year, it is in a deepening economic where the Green Revolution began.23 crisis that is generating political unrest. The basic ingredients for internal po- As recently as 1970, Egypt was largely litical conflict and civil strife are in place. self-sufficient in grain production; in An economic slowdown induced by ris- 1986, imports supplied over half the ing external debt, rising numbers of grain consumed. (See Figure 2-2.) More unemployed youth, and a highly skewed seriously, continuing population growth income distribution seem certainto will further raise the need for imported breed social tensions and rising unrest. food, since Egypt's crop yields are al- The wealthiest 10 percent of Mexicans ready high by international standards receive 41 percent of total income; the and urban encroachment on the narrow poorest one fifth, less than 3 percent. strip of farmland along the Nile is slowly Real wages have declined at least a fifth shrinking the cropland area.32 during the eighties. Fiscal string,:ncies The economic crisis in Egypt has been have forced the elimination of subsidies in the making for years, but it has been on tortillas, the corn meal food staple, at held at bay by a decade of rising oil ex- precisely the time when wages were W- ports,rerniw-tncesof workers from ing, thus weakening the social safety abroad, capitil investment from oil-rich net.2° neighbors, arid growing tourism. The Unemployment is rising. Mexican po- mid-eighties decline in oil prices has re- litical scientist Jorge Castaneda believes duced both petroleum export revenues that Mexican youth who do not find jobs and worker remittances from abroad, have three options: attempt to migrate while the terrorist threat has cut the flow to the United States, spend their time of tourists. idle on the streets, or rise up in revolu- Egypt, like Mexico, is burdened by don. Exposure to the benefits of higher external debt. At the end of 1985, this living standards, both through contact with migrants to the United States and Percent through television, gives today's youth 100 higher expectations than their parents had.3° Castaneda believes that because of the difficulty in creating enough jobs, aver- age Mexicans may be poorer at the end of the century than they are today. The only way to offset the adverse social effects on the poor is to redistribute wealth. But this is exceedingly difficult, particularly when so much capitalis fleeing the country. In looking toward Source: U.S. Dept. of the end of the century, Castaneda be- Agriculture lieves that Mexico will either be more just and more democratic or "it will be 1960 1970 0 19 0 on the verge of splitting asunderif it Figure 2-2. Grain Sell-Sufficieney in Egypt, has not broken apart already."3' 1960-86

51 Analyzing the Demographic Trap (35) totaled $34 billion, more than $9 bil- characteristics lion of which was for with dozens of other weapons imports, Third World countries. And likemany largely from the United States, In1985, others, Mexico and Egypt face the possi- the servicing of nonmilitary debtre- bility that recent declines in livingstan- quired some 32 percent of foreign- dards will continue. exchange earnings; in 1986, it took close to half.33 One of the most politically sensitive The average Egyptian doesnot un- issues in Egypt today is the food subsidy derstand the rising external and the growing economicpressures to debt, reduce it. An attempt do this in 1977 led but does understand rising bread to widespread rioting and forced Presi- prices. dent Anwar Sadat to rescind thecut. In March 1986, thousands of policecon- scripts rioted, burning 4 hotels and28 Developments within Central America nightclubs in a resortarea. They were over the past generation illustrate how protesting their low wages anda ru- population growth can contributeto mored one-year extension in their duty conflict. Following World War II,Cen- tours. This incident, which caused mil- tral American economies diversifiedand lions of dollars worth of damage,is an grew rapidly. Per capita income nearly indication of how close social dissatisfac- doubled. Then during the seventies,a tion in Egypt is to the flash point.34 number of trends convergedto under- For Egypt, efforts to reduce the bur- mine economic progress.36 geoning bread subsidymay bring its un- Even before the first oil price shock, folding demographic and economic cri- deforestation and soil erosion had been sisintosharpfocus. Although the accelerating, slowly undermining Cen- International Monetary Fund and other tral America's agricultural foundation. lenders are pressing the Egyptiangov- In effect, population growthbegan to ernment to reduce this subsidy, which is overwhelm the ecosystems, theeduca- contributing heavily to its fiscal deficits tional systems, and the employment- and external debt, many doubt that it creating capacities of nationalecono- will be politically able to doso. The aver- mies. In some countries, theeconomic age Egyptian does not understand the slowdown was aggravated by theine- rising external debt, but doesunder- quitable distribution of land and, hence, of income. In Nicaragua, it ledto revolu- stand rising bread prices. Ironically, if tion. In El Salvador, where incomes Egypt cannot reduce its external debt,it of may not be able to buy the needed the richest one fifth of the populationare wheat. The resulting shortage of bread 33 times those of the poorestone fifth, social tensions eventually burst intocivil would make the subsidy meaningless. war.36 Mexico and Egypt have much incom- mon: They export oil, have failed to Unfortunately, the conditions giving birth to the tragic recent historyof substantially check population growth, bloodshed in Central Americaare not have an external debt that is becoming unique. In additionto Mexico and unmanageable, have enormous numbers Egypt, scores of developing countries of new job applicants, andare forced by are faced with politically destabilizing external debt and fiscal stringencies to economic crises. Mountingstresses may reduce basic consumer subsidies. Except cause fragile political institutions to give for their oil exports, they sharethese way, leading to an age of disorder. (36) State of the or1d-1987 THEDEMOGRAPHIC TRAP soil loss begins to exceed new soil for- mation. Similarly, when firewood For many Third World countries, the harvesting first begins to exceed the sus- demographic trap is becoming the grim tainable yield, the effects are scarcely vis- alternative to completing the demo- ible because the excessive harvesting is graphic transition. If countries are in the so small. But over time it increases and middle of the transition for too long, eventually, as population expands and rapid population growth and the as- the forested area dwindles, it begins to sociated ecological and economic deteri- feed vigorously on itself. By the time the oration may prevent them from reaching loss of tree cover becomes widely evi- the equilibrium of the final stage. The dent, the population growth that is driv- only long-term alternative then becomes ing the deforestation has so much mo- a return to the equilibrium of the first mentumthatthedeclinebecomes stagewith high birth and death rates. difficult to arrest. Such a regression is already evident in One of the first economic indications Africa, where famine has raised death that pressure on the land is becoming rates twice since 1970. excessive is declining grain production Most of the Third World entered the per person. In earlier agricultural soci- second stage of the demographic transi- eties, population increases were simply tion around mid century. As recently as matched by those in cultivated area. the forties, world population was grow- Grain output per personas stable. ing at scarcely 1 percent per year. At that When population growth is rapid and time, North America and Africa were there is no new land to plow, expanding growing at the same rate, both slightly the use of modern inputs fast enough to faster than the world average. Suddenly, offset the effects of land degradation and as a result of falling Third World death to raise land productivity in tandem with rates,worldpopulationgrowthac- population growth is not easy. It thus celeratedsharplyinthe fiftiesap- comes as no surprise that per capita proaching 2 percent, where it has since grain production is declining in some 40 remained. developing countries.37 A typical developing country has thus When this happens in an agrarian so- been in the middle stage of the demo- ciety, it is usually only a matter of time graphic transitionfor closetofour until it translates into a decline in per decades. This high-fertility, low-mortal- capita income, and into the need for ity stage cannot continue for long. After food imports. Rising food imports con- a few decades, countries should have put tribute to growing external debt. If ex- together a combination of economic ternal debt rises fast enough, it will even- policies and family planning programs tually cross a debt-servicing threshold, that reduce birth rates and sustain gains beyond which the debtor country can no in living standards. If they fail to do so, longer pay all the interest. At this point, continuingrapidpopulation growth lenders insist that the unpaid interest be eventually overwhelms natural support added to the principal, expanding the systems, and environmental deteriora- debt further. Dozens of other develop- tion starts to reduce per capita food pro- ing countries have either crossed the duction and income. debt-servicing threshold or are in dan- Most societies do not know when they ger of doing so.38 arecrossingthevariousbiological The demographic trap is not easily thresholds that eventually lead to eco- recognized because it involves the in- nomic decline. Few notice when the top- teraction of population, environmental, Analyzing the Demographic Trap (37) and economic trends, whichare moni- all too many economic planners tored by various offices in different and gov- population policymakers have failedto ernmental ministries. And observers fre- distinguish between the need quentlyfailto to slow distinguishbetween population growth and the needto halt triggering events, suchas drought, and it. If societal demands are far below the underlying instability in the population- sustainable yield of naturalsystems, then environment relationship. slowing population growth is sufficient. The inability to cope with these devel- But when they have passed thesethresh- opments can make political leaders,even olds,thefailuretohalt population capable ones, appear incompetent.Eco- growth leads to a deteriorationof sup- nomic stresses begin togenerate social port systems. stresses. Ethnic and tribal tensionsare exacerbated and governments become preoccupied with instability. More and Countries find themselves caught more of their time and energy isre- quired merely to stay inpower. Dozens in a downward spiral withlittle of countries in Africa, Latin America,the warning. Middle East, and South Asiaarc already enmeshed in this demographictrap. National governments in the modern Governments are moving intoun- era have little experience with a long- charted territory in the population/en- term, sustained decline in living mn- vironment/resources relationship. Most dards. Thus countries find themselves developing countriescannot remain caught in a downward spiral with little much longer in the middlestage of the warning. Figuring out howto arrest the demographictransition. deterioration once it is under Eitherthey way may must forge ahead with all the energiesat dwarf in difficulty the other challenges their disposal, perhapseven on an emer- facing governments. gency basis, to slow and halt population But they are probably not the firstto growth. Or they will slide into the be caught unawares. Archaeologists demo- who graphic trap. For the first time,govern- have studied the long-term evolutionof ments are faced with the monumental the Mayan civilization, centered in the task of trying to reduce birthrates as Guatemalan lowlands, report that its living conditions deteriorate,a chal- population increased rather steadily for lenge that may require some 17 centuries before its abrupt col- some new ap- proaches along the lines discussedin lapse in the ninth century. Theycalcu- Chapter 11. If they fail, economic late that the Mayan population deteri- was dou- oration could eventually leadto social bling once every 408years. Kenya's is disintegration of the sort that under- doubling every 18 years,59 mined earlier civilizationswhen popula- Lacking a grounding in ecologyand tion demands became unsustainable. an .,.;nderstanding of carrying capacity, Assessing the Futu e of Urbanization Lester R. Brown and JodiJacobson

Aside from the growth of world popula- tal of the Chinese T'ang dynasty, histori- tion itself, urbanization is the dominant cally the world's population has been demographic trend of the late twentieth overwhelmingly rural. Widespread ur- century. The number of people living in banization is largely a twentieth-century cities increased from 600 million in 1950 phenomenon: As recently as 1900, fewer to over 2 billion in 1986. If thisgrowth than 14 percent of the world's people continues unabated, more than half of lived in cities.s humanity willreside in urban areas TheIndustrialRevolution,which shortly after the turn of the century) began in nineteenth-century Britain, fos- Cities are a relatively recent innova- tered the development of large, modern tion, lagging by several millennia the cities. Coal replaced firewood as the emergence of agriculture some12,000 dominant energy source in Europe and years ago. The first permanenthuman fueled the growth of early industrial cit- settlements evolved after traditionally ies. It was later supplanted by oil, which nomadic Middle Eastern peoples began has underwritten the massive urbaniza- to cultivate crops. Successiveagricul- tion of this century, providing fuel for tural advances, such as the harnessing of transportation and the consolidation of draft animals and the development of ir- industrialprocesses.Petroleumalso rigation, enabled farmers to produce enabled cities to lengthen their supply enough food to support nascent villages lines and draw basic resources, such as and towns. Diversification of trade and food and raw materials, from anywhere the production of a wider array of goods in the world. encouraged greater numbers to settle in Accelerated urbanization has spurred what later became cities,2 the concentration of political power Although large cities arose from time within Third World cities, leading to to time, including second-century Rome policies that favor urban over rural and Chang'an (Xian), the imperial capi- areas. Subsidies and overvalued ex-

5 Assessing the Fue of Urbanization (.34) change rates often make food and other millennia in an incremental ebb and flow basic goods cheaper in the city, dis- that paralleled the growth in human couraging agricultural investment and population. In the nineteenth century, pulling people into urban areas. Indeed, however, the Industrial Revolutioncat- many cities have been enriched only by alyzed rapid urban growth: The first impoverishing their hinterlands. countries to industrialize were also the Cheap oil and economic policies fa- first to urbanize. For example, fewer voring cities together led to a phenome- than one fourth of the British lived in nal surge in urban growth. But the signs cities in 1800, on the eve of the indus- of urban stress now apparent through- trial Revolution; a century later,two out the world are calling into question thirds of the population lived in cities.5 the continuing expansion of cities,par- Historical developments provide only ticularly the larger ones. Mountingex- a foreshadowing of the dominant demo- ternal debts are forcing nationalgovern- graphic and economic role that urban ments to scale back investments in urban centers play today. Urbanization has ac- areas and to reorder economic priori- celerated over the past several decades. ties, The transition that is slowly getting By 1987, some 43 percent of the world's under way from fossil fuels to renewable people were living in cities.6 energy sourceshydropower, biornass, Urbanization has three demographic and solar collectors, to name a fewwill components: migration, natural increase further redefine the optimal balance be- (the excess of births over deaths), and tween urban and rural populations. reclassification of rural areas to cities. Migration is most important in the early stages of urbanization, such as in Africa, while natural increasenow dominates city growth in parts of Asia and through- THE GROWTH AND ROLE outLatin America. At the current OF growth rate of 2.5 percent yearlyhalf CITIES again as fast as total populationthe Neolithic villages began giving number of peoplelivingincities way to throughout the world will double in the the first cities about 5,000 years agoon the deltas of the Nile, Tigris, and Eu- next 28 years. Nearly nine tenths of this phrates rivers. Not long after, flourish- growth will occur in the Third World, where the annual urban growthrate is ing urban centers throughout the Mid- 3.5 percentmore than triple that of the dle East became seedbeds of culture and industrial world.7 commerce. Advances in science and the Latin America, with 65percent of its arts seemEC) have depended on the dy- people in urban areas, is the site ofsome namics of a -human implosion-as the of the world's largest cities: Mexico City relative density of ancient cities speeded and Sao Paulo contain 18 million and 14 the exchange of ideas and innovations. millionpeople,respectively.Latin Urban historian Lewis Mumford has America's population is growing 2.3per- noted that the maturation of cities in cent a year, but its urban population is Greece'resulted in a -collective life more increasing by 2.9 percent peryear. By highly energized, more heightened in its the turn of the century, 466 million Latin capacity for esthetic expression andra- Americans are expected to be living in tional evaluation" than ever before.* cities, representing over three fourths of The number and size of cities in- the region's total population. (See Table creased sporadically over the past two 3-1).8 Stale of the-mid-1987 Table 3-1. Urban Share of Total Although most countries of the region Population, Selected Regions, 1950 and have relatively small proportions of their 1986, With Projections to 2000 populations in cities, urbanization seems to be accelerating, India is predomi- Region 1950 1986 2000 nantly rural, with only 24 percent of its (percent) 765 million people in cities. Yet large cities such as Bombay, Calcutta, Delhi, North America 64 74 78 and Madras are still growing, and rural Europe 56 73 79 migration to other metropolitan areas is 39 71 Soviet Union 74 rising. Similarly, the urban share of pop- East Asia 43 70 79 ulation in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam ranges from 18 Latin America 41 65 77 to 39 percent. Urban growth rates in Oceania 61 65 73 these countries range from 2.4 percent China 12 32 40 annually in Vietnam to 4.8 percent in Africa 15 30 42 Indonesia, indicating rapid urbaniza- South Asia 15 24 35 tion.11 Cities of more than 5 million can now World 29 43 48 be found on every continent. By 2000, SOURCE: For 1986 data, Population Reference Bu. three out of the five cities with popula- reau. 1986IVarld Population Data Sheet(Washing- tions of 15 million or more will be in the ton. D.C.: 1986); for 1950 and 2000, Carl Haub, Population ReferenceBureau, Washington, D.C., Third WorldMexico City, São Paulo, personal communication. August 28, 1986. and Calcutta. Asia will contain 15 of the world's 35 largest cities, in Africa, only In Africa, the least urbanized develop- Cairo is now in the 5 million category, ing region, urban population is growing but by the end of the century, the conti- 5 percent yearly as millions of Africans nent is projected to have at least eight fleeing rural poverty and environmental such centers.12 degradation migrate to urban areas. Recent urbanization trends inthe Today 175 million Africans live in cities Third World are without precedent. Be- 30 percent of the continent's total. If tween 1800 and 1910, Greater London's currentprojectionsmaterialize,this population grew almost sevenfold, from number will reach 368 million in 2000, a 1.1 million to 7.3 million, an increase tenfold increase since 1950.9 now achieved within a generation in Most East Asian countriesJapan, many Third World cities. Likewise, it Taiwan, North and South Koreaare took Paris more than a century to ex- predominantly urban. China sharply di- pand from 547,000 to about 3 million, a verges from this pattern, with scarcely 32 growth matched by many Third World percent of its population in cities. This is cities just since World War II. Moreover, due in part to the strict regulations on the population sizes to which today's internal migration that prevailed prior to high urban growth rates are adding are 1978, and in part to the growing relative dramatically larger than those in the prosperity of the countryside. Yet, ur- past." banization rates in China have stepped As Third World cities reach astound- up recently as the government encour- ing proportions, they are outgrowing ages the development of towns and the administrative capacity of local gov- small cities to reduce rural population ernments. Many are struggling to pro- pressures .1° vide the most basic of services. In Alex- South Asia presents a mixed picture. andria, Egypt, a system built Assessing the Fu e of Urbanization (0) earlier this century for 1 million people "the cost of supporting Mexico Citymay now serves 4 million. Lack of investment be exceeding its contribution in goods capital to upgrade waste treatment and and services; the nation's economic lo- drainage systems has left parts of the city comotiveisbecomingafinancial literally awash in raw sewage." drain.-17 The majority of people in large Afri- can citiesLagos, Nairobi, Kinshasa, Addis Ababa, and Lusaka, among others By 2000, three out of the five cities lack piped water and . A 1979 survey found that 75 percent of with populations of 15 millionor families in Lagos lived in single-room more will be in the Third World. dwellings. Seventy-eight percent of the households shared kitchen facilities with another family, while only 13 percent In 1983 an estimated 44percent of had running water. If the urban growth Mexico's gross domestic product, 52 forecast for Africa materializes, living percent of its industrial product, and 54 standards will undoubtedly deteriorate percent of its services were concentrated further." within metropolitan Mexico City. Simi- The Germans call it "Weltstadte": Lit- larly, more than 60 percent of Philippine erally translated as world cities, it isan manufacturing establishments in 1979 apt description of the changing urban were located in Greater Manila. Compa- role in the world economy. Mostgovern- rable statistics could be cited for Jakarta, ments in the Third World have encour- Khartoum, Lagos, and a host of others." aged large-city growth to link domestic WorldBankeconomistAndrew and international economies. As a result, Hamer, reviewing the impact of urban one city, usually the capital, often domi- economic concentration on Brazil's de- nates a country, controlling the trade be- velopment, found that in 1975 Sao Paulo tween urban areas and both rural and had less than 10 percent of the country's international markets. The large share population but accounted for 44percent of national populations in these primary of the electricity consumption, 39per- citiesreinforcestheirconcentrated cent of the telephones, and well over half wealth, power, and status. As the U.N. the industrial output and employment. Fund for Population Activitiesnotes, He concluded that -Sao Paulo has been Manila and Bangkok have more incom- the beneficiary of preferential publicsec- mon with Tokyo and Washington than tor treatment for most of the last century with their rural hinterlands." [while) large segnif'-nts of the popula- The growth of cities in industrialna- tion and even largerents of thena- tions was an integral part of national tional territory wer ject to 'benign economic development. Today's rapid neglect'."19 growth of large cities, on the other hand, This neglect is evident in the increas- often works against widespread gains. ingly disparate standards of living within National development strategies based cities, and between urban andrural solely on the economic success ofone or dwellers. In Lima and La Paz, for in- a few urban areas lack the diversity and stance, the tin-and-tarpaper shacks of stability of more broadly based efforts. the urban poor are found in the shadow The negative effects of such approaches of tall, modern office buildings. Mexico can currently be seen throughout the de- City has gained notoriety for the large veloping world. WallStreet Journalre- number of people living in makeshift porter Jonathan Kande!l observes that burrows n a hillside garbage dump.

5 3 (42) State of the World-1987 Scenes like these are repeated in shanty- trast, today's trends in part reflect agri- towns and illegal settlements ringing cit- cultural failure, Large-scale migrations ies throughout the Third World. from rural areas are a symptom of the Sharp income stratifications result in severe imbalance that characterizes na- part from too many people chasing too tional economic strategies and the sheer few jobs. In metropolitan Manila, 16 weight of population growth pushing percent of the labor force is unemployed down rural incomes. High rates of rural and 43 percent is underemployed. Low population growth, heavily skewed land incomes and high land costs leave a distribution, poor income prospects, growing number of families unable to and low or nonexistent levels of govern- buy or rent homeseven ones subsi- ment investment in agriculture all com- dized by the government. The Philip- bine to make even urban slums look pine government estimates that at least more appealing than agrarian life. two thirds of all new housing being con- structed within the city is "illegal and uncontrolled.-20 The gap between groups within cities is also widening with people's efforts to URBAN ENERGY NEEDS feed themselves. Food purchases domi- nate expenditures by the urban poor. Recent urbanization has been closely When food prices rise sharply, as they tied to the use of fossil fuels. Coal, used did in the 1972-76 period, the urban to run the engines that powered poor suffer disproportionately. For one both factories and rail transport, gave thing, the energy invested in food trans- birth to industrial society and the early port and the multiple transaction costs industrial cities, It dominated the fossil along the way ensure that food prices are fuel age until a few decades ago, but it is higher.21 oil that has made massive urbanization in the past, most governments heavily possible. As world petroleum produc- subsidized food staples and other goods tion turned sharply upward ufter mid- to encourage urban development while century, the national and international keeping wage costs down. Now, these transportation systems on which cities same governments walk a tightrope be- depend grew by leaps and bounds. tween the constraints of ballooning bud- Although urbanizationhaslargely get deficits and the demands of urban come to a halt in industrial countries, it residents accustomed to low-cost goods. isproceeding rapidlyinthe Third Egypt, once a food exporter, now World, where energy consumption is ris- meets 60 percent of its daily food needs ing as a result. Whereas rural communi- with imports, bound primarily for urban ties rely primarily on local supplies of markets. The government, which has food, water, and, to a lesser degree, fuel, barely recovered from the last spate of cities import these commodities, often bread riots, is politically unable to re- over long distances.Likewise,rural duce its 152-billion food subsidy but eco- areas can absorb their wastes locally, nomically unable to sustain it. Ironically, whereas cities use energy to collect gar- urban-biassubsidiessuchasthese bage and treat sewage. Urban dwellers helped create sharp divisions between in the Third World thus require more urban and rural life-styles, and continue energy than their rural counterparts to to draw people to the cities.22 achieve the same living standard. Past urban development has been the Supplying cities with water requires product of agricultural success. By con- energy expenditures that are unneces-

5 Assessing the Fullof Urbanization (43) sary in villages. Watenza- needs of large cit- sectors: domestic, commercial, indus- ies often exceed 1oc.---11 supplies, forcing trial, and transport. (See Table 3-2.) municipalitks toin=riport water from The domestic sector accounted for only greatdistattces,1-1c=lusehold supplies, 18 percent of energy use; the industrial drawn front sources, re- sector required slightly more than the quire physicaland cliallemical purification, transport sector. another energy-cons_iming process. Although such detailed data are not The energy required to satisfy food readily available for most cities, urban needs also increases in urban settings. energyconsumptionpatterns vary Not only is the supi=31y line longer for widely. The type of fuel esed typically cities, frequently exL-.ending across na- shifts from heavy reliance on firewood to tional borders, but E7-ood shipped long primary reliance on fossil fuels. As pe- distances needs 'nor-7e processing and troleum output expanded after mid-cen- packaging. Fruits, ve -.-..etables, and live- tury, kerosene began to replace wood as stock products oftenens require refriger- a cooking fuel in Third World cities. It ated transporcif the, are to be edible was convenient and, for many urban when they mch a cit-=y. Of the total en- dwellers, cheaper than firewood. The oil ergy used in the fa-ft.-cid system of the price surge of the seventies reversed this United States, a highusly urbanized soci- trend, catching many countries unpre- ety, one thirdis used in the production pared for the dramatic growth in urban of food, onultird in transporting, pro- firewood demand. cessing, and distribt ----ttingit, and one RiEing fuel prices and a scarcity of for- third in preparing eign exchange to import oil has forced Both the quantity at-ad nature of urban literally hundreds of Third World cities fuel needs vary with cat he level of devel- to turn to the surrounding countryside opment. In Third '1'V/oddcities,for for cooking fuel. As a result, forests are example, cooking cr_:lominates energy being devastated in ever-widening cir- use. In indusuial couritries, by contrast, cles around cities, particularly in the In- the transportation sys-tem consumes far dian subcontinent and Africa. No forests more energy.Australianecologist remain within 70 kilometers of Niamey, Kenneth Newcombe analyzed energy the capital of Niger, or of Ouagadougou, use in HongKong, a city of commerce the capital of Burkina Faso.24 and light industry, fera=r each of the four The country with perhaps the best 'fible 3-2. 311-long Kong: Energy Use by Source and Sector, 1976 Elec- Share of Sector Fijel tricity' Other Total Total (tajoules) (percent) Domestic M31 43 14 138 18 Commercial 64 9 170 22 Industrial 118 73 12 233 31 Transport 2 =I 6 1 0 217 29

Total 181 35 758 100 1A11 elcctricItywn generauited from oil at the time of this survey. souRcE: Adapted from Kerazaaneth Newcombe, in Ian Douglas, The Urban Environn Baltimore, Md.: Edward Arnold Publishcm 1983). 60 State othe World-1987 data on this proces is India, where satel- Table 3-3. India: Changes in Closed lite images have 17±:seen used to monitor Forest Cover Around Major Cities, deforestation. Ori study reports that for 1972-75 to 1980-82 nine of India's pr-Hrcipal cities, the area of closed forest u.;nrithin 100 kilometers City 1972-751980-82Change fell sharply betwen the mid-seventies (square kilometers) and early eightiesz.. (Sec Table 3-3.) In (percent) well under a deca=le, the loss of forested Bangalore 3,853 2,762 28 area ranged froma comparatively mod- Bombay 5,649 3,672 35 Calcutta 55 41 est15-percent dc=ecline around Coim- 25 batore to a stag=ering 60-percent de- Coimbatore 5,525 4,700 15 cline around Delk=i. Delhi 254 101 60 Unfortunately fr low-income urban Hyderabad 40 26 35 dwellers, this retuzurn to fuelwood has Jaipur 1,534 786 40 boosted prices. (Se Table 3-4.) Data for Madras 918 568 38 41 Indian cities s1-14=mv a 42-percent rise in Nagpur 3,116 2,051 34 fuelwood prices t--rom 1977 to 1984. SOURCE: B. Bowonder et al..Definestation and Fuel- Even though foodM prices in India have wood Use in Urban Centres(Hyderabad, India: Centre remained remarka.mbly stable, escalating for Energy, Environment, and Technology and Na. fuelwood prices irmeans that the cost of tional Remote Sensing Agency, 1985). cooked food is ris1ng.25 wed in its manufacture, providing yet As forests reeecEle from Third World another example of how urbanization cities, the cost of hauling wood rises. boosts energy consumption and acceler- Eventually it beconzines more profitable to ates the loss of tree cover.26 convert the wood =into charcoal, a more If firewood harvesting could be evenly concentrated forrmi of energy, before distributed throughout a country's for- transporting it. ThEis conserves transport ests, this could sus- fuel, but charcoal atypically has less than tain far larger with proper man- half of the energy ontained in the wood agement thanis now the case. But

Ta1310 3-4. India: Fuelwood Prices in Leading Citie 1960-84

Average Annual Fuelwood Price Per Ton Change in Price City 1960 1977 1984 1960-77 1977 4 (1960 rupees) (percent) Ahmedabad 90 94 114 0.2 2.8 Bangalore 47 69 94 2.3 4,5 Bombay 84 111 180 1.6 7.2 Calcutta 93 94 140 0.1 5.9 Coimbatore 73 74 103 0.1 4.9 Delhi 100 122 162 1.2 4.1 Hyderabad 66 74 106 0.7 5.3 Jaipur 78 91 113 0.9 3.1 Madras 85 87 117 0.1 4.4 Nagapur 60 48 99 1.3 10.9 snuRcE: B. Bowonder t al.,Deforestation and Fuelwood Use in Urban Centres(Hyderabad, India: Centre for Energy, Environment, rtcl Technology and National Remote Sensing Agency, 1985).

61 Assessing the Future of Urbanization (45) because the demand is often heavilycon- from geothermally poweredgenerating centrated around cities, nearby forests plants.28 are decimated while more distant ones As oil becomes more costly in the are left untouched. As people congre- nineties and as the worldturns to alter- gate in cities, this inability to managena- native,moregeographicallydiffuse tional forest resources for the maximum sources of energy, the economics ofen- sustainable yield could proveto be eco- ergy use will favor cities less than in the nomically costly and ecologically disas- past. Just as cities were shaped by the trous over the long term. shift from wood to coal and theneven As world oil production falls, citiesare more dramatically by the shift from coal beginning to turn to renewablesources to oil, so too will their future be shaped of energy, including hydroelectricity, by a necessary shift from fossil fuelsto waste-fueled electrical generation, solar renewable energy. Thisenergy transi- collectors,andgeothermalenergy. tion, already under way, raises questions Some cities are well along in the transi- about the optimal size of cities anda de. tion from fossil fuels. A World Bank- sirable rural-urban balance. supported effort to redw.:e dependence on imported oil by developing indige- nous hydropower resources is steadily boosting the hydroelectricity share of many Third World energy budgets. Hy- FEEDING CITIES dropower and firewood dominateen- ergy use in scores of Third World econo- When agriculture began, world popula- mies, but, as noted earlier,a major tion probably did not exceed 15 million, no more than live in Greater London or future role for firewood is contingenton better management of existing forests Mexico City today, The first citieswere and a far greater tree planting effort than fed with grain surpluses produced inthe is now in prospect." immediately surrounding countryside, since the lack of efficient transportation The list of cities relyingon renewable energy is as diverse as the sources they prevented long-distance movement of food. are drawing on: Munich derives 12 per- cent of its electricity from burning re- With the Industrial Revolution this changed, as Great Britain began fuse. A 55-megawatt power plantnear to ex- Rotterdam annually converts port industrial products in exchange for over 1 mil- food and raw materials. The practice lion tons of garbage into electricity.In erusalem and Tokyo, both located in spread, and soon much of Europe fol- lowed this trade pattern. On theeve of countries that lead in solar water heater World War II, Asia, Africa, and Latin installations, rooftop collectorsare com- America, as well as North America,were monplace. The transport system in S5o all net grain exporters. Rural Paulo relies heavily on alcohol fuels dis- areas of tilled these regions were producing grainto from sugarcane producedon exchange for the manufactured products nearby farms. San Francisco is deriving of European cities. Cities in the indus- more and more of its electricity from trial countries were tappingnot only the nearby geothermalfieldsand wind food surplusf their own countryside, farms. Reykjavik has long used geother- but that pi _iced far away as well. mal energy for most of itsspace heating, These distant sources of food for cities while Philippine cities suchas Manila are grew in importance after World War II, deriving a growing share of electricity as agricultural advances in North Amer-

6 (-) (46) State of thtszze d-1987 ica created a huge exportable sus plus 0 :of Asia (excluding India and China), grain. Between 1950 and1980, the con-s- Africa, and Eastern Europe and the So- tinent's grain ships-nett increased frort-mn viet Unionstill depend on grain from 23 million to131nilllion tons. (Seet.e abroad,principallyNorth America. Table 3-5.) Since rnikentury, NortlTh Major cities in these regions, such as America's food surplusksunderwrittervn Leningrad,Moscow,Cairo, Lagos, much of the world's urban growth. Close, e Dacca, and Hong Kong, depend heavily to half of North America's grain exportzt:s on grain produced in North America. are consumed in African and Asiancitiem-s And the Soviet Union isArgentina's half a world away. main export market. In Africa, formerly Recently, Western Europefor ovca-71- a grain exporter, some of the world's twocentuitesthedominantfood-11- fastest-growingcitiesare kingfed importing region--haskcome a net ex -zz- largely with imported grain. porter. This shift is attributable to Occasionally logistics providea sound cultural support prices well above workz:sci reason to import food. It is sometimes market levels,advancing agricultura_cal easier to supply Third World coastal cit- technology, and near-stationary popula-B.- ies with food from abroad thanfrom the don sizes. Like cities in North America-m, local countryside. China, forinstance, those in Western Europe can now beN-e imported several million tons of grain supplied entirely witli graM produced irars annually for many yearsbecauseit the surrounding countryside. In goocIszl lacked the internaltransponalion to crop years, such as 1986, Latin Arneric move grain from its agriculturalinterior can also feed people lois cities. to the major coastal cities. Although Asia is novithe leading grairm As China worked toward national self- importer, India and China,the twcpc sufficiency in cereals, some of its major countries that dominatelhe region, havelte cities were seeking gelf-sufficicncy in the recently achieved food self-sufficierwa-y production of perishables, particularly and are thus providing food for theft fresh vegetables. To reach this goal. own cities. Both coulciconceivably con-a.- Shanghai, a city of 11 million,extended tinue to do so as long as they can afronzaed itsboundaries into the surrounding the energy to keep intentifying their ag--:- countryside, increasing the ck area to ricultural production.25 some 6,000 square kilonseters,This shift Thus three major geographic region of nearby land tocity management Table 3-5. The Changing Pattes-ern of World Grain Trade, 1950_861

Region 1950 1960 1970 1989 1 (million metric ton North Amerira +23 +39 +50 +131 +102 Latin America + 1 0 + 4 - 10 - 4 Western Europe -22 -25 -30 - 10 + 14 E. Eur. and Soviet Union 0 0 - 40 - 37 Africa 0 - 2 - 5 - 15 - 22 Asia - 6 -17 -37 - 63 - 73 Australia and New Zeal, + 3 + 6 +12 + 20 + 20 'Plus sign indicates net exports; minus sign, ramet imports.Wrcliminary, sourteEs: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organizatiart-n, ProductionYearbook (Rome: various ;11.S, Depart. ment of Agriculture, PoreigO *culture Circulars, various issues.

6 3 Assessing the Future of Urbanization (47) greatly facilitated the recycling of nutri- and consumers. Popular with urban ents in human wastes. As of 1986, dwellers, they are a valuable adjunctto Shanghai was self-sufficient invegeta- the more traditional roadside stands in bles and produced most of its grain and heavily populated areas." a good part of its pork and poultry. The most effective urban food self- Vegetables consumed in Shanghai typi- sufficiency efforts are those where city cally travel less than 10 kilometers from governments orchestrate land use, nutri- the fields in which they are produced, ent recycling, and marketing, asin often reaching the market within hours Shanghai. Increased local production of of being harvested.30 perishable vegetables facilitates there- cycling of nutrients fromwaste and yields fresh produce at attractive prices. India and China have recently Another bonus is that shorter supply achieved food self-sufficiency and lines reduce dependencyon energy- are providing food for their own intensive transportation. cities.

Hong Kong, a city of 5 million occupy- NUTRIENT RECYCLING ing an area of just over 1,000square kilometers, has a highly sophisticated Each day thousands Of tons of basic system, whichpro- plant nutrientsnitrogen, phosphorus, vides 45 percent of its fresh vegetables. and potassiummove from countryside It produces 15 percent of its own pork by to city in the flow of food that sustains feeding the pigs with indigenous food urban populations. In turn, humanor- wastes, including some 130,000 tons per ganic wastessociety's most ubiquitous year from restaurants and food-pro- disposable materialsare created. cessing plants, and with imported feed- Worldwide, over two thirds of the nutri- stuffs. Relying on imported feed, the city entspresentin human wastesare also produces 60 percent of its live poul- released to the environmentas unre- try supply. Some 31 percent of Hong claimed sewage, often polluting rivers, Kong's agricultural land producesvege- streams, and lakes. As the energy costs tables. Fish ponds, occupying 18percent of manufacturing fertilizer rise, the via- of the agricultural land, are commonly bility of agricultureand, by extension, fertilized with pig and poultrymanure citiesmay hinge on how successfully and yield 25-74 tons per hectare, de- urban areas can recycle this immense pending on the particular species and volume of nutrients. Closing nutrientcy- practice used.31 cles is thus one of the building blocks of In the industrial West, European cities ecologically sustainable cities. havetraditionally emphasized urban The collectionof human wastes community gardens. After the oil price (known as night soil) for use as fertilizer hikes of the seventies, many American isa long-standing tradition in some cities also launched urban gardening countries, particularly in Asia. People projects, offering undeveloped land to use door-to-door handcarts to collect inner-city residents. State governments, night soil in many of the older neighbor- particularly in the Northeast, haveorga- hoods of Seoul, South Korea, forrecy- nized farmers' markets in cities, produc- cling to the city's , The World ing a direct link between local farmers Bank estimated as recentlyas 1981 that

64 (48) State of the o d-1987 one third of China's fertilizer require- Devising a comprehensive recycling ments were provided by night soil." strategy depends on waste composition, European cities began fertilizing crops collection, and treatment, and on the with human wastes in the late nineteenth disposable wastes that result. Different century to minimize and sewage treatment methods yield differ- to recycle sewage. By 18757 nearly 50 ent end-products, though they all mimic sewage farms existed in Britain, some or enhance natural biological waste deg- serving major cities such as London and radation. "Wet" or water-borne sewage Manchester. These early attempts at nu- systems yield raw or treated solids and trient recycling failed for several rea- wastewater effluents for recycling. -Dry" sons. The volume of wastes from grow- sanitation systems, predominant in de- ing cities soon overwhelmed the capacity veloping regions, rely on night soil as of the sewage farms. As cities grew, sites the primary recyclable material. to apply the sewage became ever more Two water-borne sewage treatment distant from the nutrient sources. And methods are now used. In the first, air, untreated human wastes were recog- , and microbial organisms break nized as a major source of health prob- down wastes, settle solids, and kill pa- lem:I. Strong taboos developed and the thogens in a series of wastewater ponds practice was halted, resulting in an open- or lagoons. Because they are inexpen- ended nutrient flow.36 sive and land-intensive, lagoons are used primarilyinsmall urban areas and throughout developing countries. About Over half the 3.6 million cubic me- one fourth of the municipalities in the ters of wastewater produced daily United States use wastewater lagoons." The second type of wastewater treat- in Indian cities with sewers is being ment uses energy and technology to rep- used to irrigate crops. licate natural processes. Plants receive large volumes of sewage (domestic wastesoftenmixed withindustrial Recently, attitudes toward nutrient wastes and ), which undergo recycling have come full circle. Higher a variety of physical, biological, and fertilizer prices, a better understand- chemicalcleansingtreatments.This ing of and ecological method produces sludgea substance constraints, and improved waste man- ofmud-likeconsistencycomposed agement technologies have renewed in- mainly of biodegradable organic mate- terest in nutrient recycling in industrial rialand purified wastewater effluent. and developing countries alike. Such Cropirrigationwithwastewater efforts protect scarce urban resources: treated in lagoons is practiced world- Municipalitiesthatrecycleorganic wide. The effluent is rich in nitrogen, wastes can simultaneously save money, phosphorus, and other nutrients, and land, and for other uses. Re- represents a valuable water resource, cycling treated sewage onto farms sur- particularly in arid regions. The Kuwaiti rounding cities also enhances urban self- government has turned to nutrient recy- sufficiency, as indicated earlier. At least cling to conserve water and reduce reli- six Chinese cities produce within their ance on imported food, and has set goals boundaries more than 85 percent of of becoming self-sufficient in the pro- their vegetable supplies in part by re- duction of milk, potatoes, onions, and claiming nutrients from human wastes garlic. In the Mexican state of Hidalgo, and garbage.36 effluents from Mexico City are recycled

65 Assessing the Futu e of Urbanization on to 50,000 hectares of cropland in the gen and phosphorus, while ofterinL- world'slargestwastewater irrigation other agricultural benefits. Sludge isa_ scheme. Falling water tables and rising soil-builder. It adds organic bulk, irn energy costs for pumping proves soil aeration and water retention, are likely to make this practice even combats Crosion, and, as a result, boosts more attractive in the future.58 crop yields. Added to soil or used as in- Municipal sewage systems currently cremental fertilizer, sludge can signifi- serve fewer than 4 percent of India's 785 cantly reduce a farmer's commercial fel- million people. Just over half the 3.6 mil- tilizer bill. lion cubic meters of wastewaterpro- More than 15,000 sewage treat/nein duced daily in Indian cities with sewers is plants in the United States handled over being used to irrigate crops. If all of it 26 billion gallons of wastewater daily were recycled, the World Bank esti- in 1985, generating 7 million tons of mates, it would yield 82,000 tons of ni- wastewater sludge (dry weight). The trogen and 24,000 tons of phosphorus U.S. Environmental Protection Agency annually.39 estimated the nutrient content ar thls Sewage-fed aquacultureisanother waste, which included I.4million Loos Of way to recycle wastes using wastewater nitrogen, at some 10 percent of that sup. ponds. Here, wastewater purification is plied to American farmers by cheroicol complemented by cultivating fish fed on , worth therefore over $1 bil- the algae in the lagoons. China, India, lion per year.41 Thailand, and Vietnam are leaders in Land application of treated sewage wastewater . Fish ponds in sludge has grown markedly over the past Calcutta provide 20 tons of fish per day two decades. Approximately 42 percent to city markets.40 of sludge generated in the United Stote$ Sludge is not usually a complete fer- is applied to land;the rest goes to tilizer substitute because of variations in landfillsor incinerators, or iscony nutrient content. Nevertheless, it can posted.(SeeTable 3-6.) WesterO provide significant quantities of nitro- Europe produces over 6.5 million dry

Table 3-6. Sludge Production and Disposain Selected Industrial Countries, 1983

Annual Method of Disposal Sludge FarmLand-Inciner. Ocean Unspec- Country Production Land Filli anon Dumpingified' Total (thousand tons) (percent)

United States 6,200 42 15 27 4 12 190 West Germany 2,200 39 49 8 2 2 100 Italy 1,200 20 55 100 United Kingdom 1,200 41 26 100 France 840 30 50 23-04;2_5129 100 Netherlands 230 60 27 2 11 0 100 Sweden 210 60 10 100 lIncludes small amounts for land reclamation and forest application. ostly sludge retained in 14. goons. souncE: A.M. Bruce and R.D. Davis, "Britain Uses Halt-Its Fertilizer As Sludge," Biocylt, March 1984: 1.1-S, data from Robert K. Bastian, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., privatecommuni- cation, September 1986.

66 (50) Stale ofhe Wor1d-1987 tons of sludge each year, a figure that is tists have devised a composting method expected to rise 5 percent annually as capable of killing virtually all pathogens more stringent water pollution controls present in night soil. The technique re- go into effect. Approximately 40 percent lies on the same principles as those em- of the sludge produced in Western ployed in sludge composting but uses Europe is now used in agriculture. less energy, is labor-intensive, and re- Composting sludge through biologi- sults in a product with a higher nutrient cal decomposition is also increasingly content. Most important is the extremely popular. Compost is a humus-like sub- low capital cost involved. Adapting such stance that is an excellent soil condi- low-technology solutions to night soil tioner. Although the nutrient value of management provides an affbrdable al- composted sludge is reduced due to pro- ternative to financially strapped cessing, other benefits, such as the elimi- municipalities.45 nation of pathogen populations and re- Nutrient recycling is likely to increase duced water content, make this method in popularity as cities grow and become of recycling more attractive in some more concentrated and as waste man- situations. More significantly, compost agementstrategiesimprove.Other enhances the ability of crops to draw on urbanorganicdisposables--such as both natural and synthetic nutrients. household food wastes and the by- Wheat yields in India increase from 28 to products of food processing plantscan 44 percent with each 5 tons of compost add significantly to the share of nutrients added per hectare.42 recycled from cities handling either wet Appropriate technologies and prac- or dry wastes. Recycling sludge through ticesforminimizingsewage-related land application and composting wher- health risks have been widely adopted in ever water-borne sanitationexistsis industrial countries, but they have not cheaperandmoreenvironmentally been fully exploited in developing coun- tries. Installing Western-style sanitafion sound than any other disposal option. As is a luxury few Third World cities can part of a broad public health strategy, afford. Approximately 40 percent of nutrient recycling can help Third World India's 100 million urban households cities reach simultaneously the goals of use dry buckets or latrines from which better health and sanitation, higher food excreta is collected for disposal; only 20 self-sufficiency, and reduced environ. percent are served by water-borne sys- mental pollution. tems and the rest have virtually no sani- tation.43 The lack of adequate organic waste collection and treatment in many Third World cities results in serious health and ECOLOGY AND ECONOMICS environmental problems. Raw night soil OF CM SIZE provides a microscopic blueprint of the enteric diseases prevalent in a commu- Cities require concentrations of food, nity. Pathogens present in human wastes water, and fuel on a scale not found in include hookworm, tapeworm, and the nature. Just as nature cannot concen- bacteria that cause typhoid and cholera. trate the resources needed to support Using inadequately treated night soil in urban life, neither can it disperse the agriculture ensures the spread of these waste produced in cities. The waste out- pathogens.44 put of even a small city quickly overtaxes U.S. Department of Agriculture scien- the absorptive capacity of local terres-

67 Assessing the Future of Urbanization (51) trial and aquatic ecosystems. Sustaining only 402 million cubic meters of water urban thus dependson heavy per year, obtains only 4 percent of its investments in systems to concentrate water from underground sources. (See the essential resources and to treat and Table 3-7.) disperse the waste products. Hong Kong has a rather differentsup- Moving largequantitiesof food, ply pattern. Of the 133 million cubicme- water, and fuel into large cities and mov- ters of fresh water used annually, 49 per- ing garbage and sewage out is not only cent comes from underground sources logistically complex, it is energy-inten- and the rest is from surface catchments, sive. The larger the city, the morecom- mostly from across the border in China. plex and costly its support systems be- Thus Hong Kong is one of the few cities come. Nutrient-rich human wastes that that depends heavily on water in another are an asset in a rural setting can become country. Sa tisfying the water demands of an economic liability in an urban envi- this prosperous commercial city of 6.7 ronment. Indeed, the collection and million inhabitants also takessome inge- treatment of sewage is a leading claim on nuity, such as using sea water for indus- urban tax revenues, even when it ispro- trial processes and to cool electricgen- cessed and sold as fertilizer. erating plants.16 As cities grow and their material needs Many large cities find that theymust multiply, they eventually exceed thesup- draw their water from ever more distant ply capacity of the surrounding country- sites or deplete the aquifersupon which side. Even water sometimes must be they sit. Los Angeles, for example,now transported over long distances. Early draws part of its water from northern cities were able to satisfy their water California, several hundred milesaway. needs from local wells, but as urban The water comes south through the Cal- areas grow their water demands typically ifornia aqueduct, over the Tehachapi outgrow local supplies. mountains some 2,000 feet abovesea The Greater New York area, for exam- level and then into the Los Angeles ple, which uses 1.9 billion cubic meters basin. Some even comes from the of water per year, obtains only 2percent Colorado River and istransported a ofitfrom indigenous underground long distance at great cost.47 sources. The remaining 98 percent Mexico City foces even greater prob- comes from surface catchments many lems: its elevated site means itmust lift kilometers from the city proper, Sydney, water from progressively lower catch- Australia, a much smaller city thatuses ments. In1982 Mexico City began Table 3-7. Annual Water Consumption in Three Cities, by Source

Underground Underground Surface Water Share City Water Catchments Total of Total (million cubic meters) (percent) New York 48 1,880 1,928 2

Sydney 17 385 402 4

Hong Kong 65 68 133 49 SOURCE:Ian Douglas,The ahimo d.: Edward Arnold Publishers, I (52) Sla le of the World 987 pumping water from Cutzamala, a site growel in the city from materializing. 100 kilometers away and 1,000 meters The city is thus faced with three rising lower than the city. British geographer cost curves in water procurementin- Ian Douglas reports that "augmentation creasing distance of water transport, in- of the Mexico City supply in the 1990s creasing height of water lift, and rising will be from Tecolutla, which is some energy costs.48 200 kilometers away and 2,000 meters is not the only emerg- lower." Pumping water this far will re- ing constraint on urban growth. As quire some 125 trillion kilojoules of noted earlier, for many Third World cit- electrical energy annually, the output of ies the rising price of oil, and hence of six 1,000-megawatt power plants. Con- kerosene, since 1973 has put pressure struction of these plants would cost at on indigenous fuelwood resources. Re- least $6 billion, roughly half the annual search on fuelwood prices in India de- interest payments on Mexico's external monstrates a remarkably close relation- debt. If the costs of expanding Mexico ship between citysize and firewood City'swatersupplyarebecoming costs. (See Table 3-8.) In some smaller prohibitive, as these numbers suggest, cities that are relatively close to forested water scarcity may prevent the projected areas, such as Darjeeling, fuelwood costs Table 3-8. India: Fuelwood Prices in Major Cities, by Size, 1984 Population of City Rupees per Less Than Between I Million More Than Metric Ton I Million and 5 Million 5 Million Less than 350 Balaghat Darjeeling

350-400 Srinagar Chikrnagalur Asansol

400-500 amshedpur Bhavnagar

500-700 Bhopal Hyderabad indore Ahmedabad Sambalpur Bangalore Amritsar Nagapur Coimbatore Jaipur Madurai Madras Alleppey Kanpur

Above 700 Gwalior Bombay Ajmer Calcutta Varanasi Delhi Howrab SOURCE: B. Bawonder et al., Deforestation and Fuelwood Use in Urban Cenirts (Hyderabad, India: Centre for Energy, Environment, and Technology and National Remote Sensing Agency, 1985).

69 Assessing the Futi re of Urbanization (53) less than 350 rupees per ton in 1984. As astronomical level compared with the citysize increased, so did firewood safe limit of 100 and the prices. In the seven cities with popula- safe swimming count of 200. Heavy tions between 1 million and 5 million, metal contamination of water supplies is prices ranged from 500 to 700 rupees also common around Third World cities. per ton. For the three cities with more Lake Managua in Nicaragua, for in- than 5 million residents, fuelwood cost stance,isheavily contaminated with more than 700 rupees per ton, at least morcury." twice as much as in smaller cities. ttle systematic effort has been made Some small cities also had expensive ,.:asure most pollutants in the air and fuelwood, usually because they were in water in Third World cities. Conse- areas with little remaining forest cover. quently, environmentally inducedill- Thus small cities in India do not neces- nesses are often the first indication of sarily have low fuelwood prices, but all serious pollution. Much of the evidence large cities have high prices. Over time of deteriorating urban environments is this economic differential may begin to affect wage costs, leading industries to physical and visual. Hardoy and Sat- move to smaller cities with lower fuel- terthwaite observe that "when one visits wood prices. a Third World city, environmental prob- Of all the investments needed to sus- lems, such as smog or smoke irritating tain cities, the shortfall is undoubtedly the eyes, inadequate provision for gar- greatest in the treatment and disposal of bage collection and disposal, opensew- human and industrial wastes. Reports on ers or no sewers at all, inadequate drain- the adverse consequences of air pollu- age and noxious and polluted rivers, tionin Third World cities, such as lakes or seacoasts are usually all too evi- Mexico City and Seoul, are legion. An cIent."51 estimated 60 percent of Calcutta's resi- Whether concentrating the resources dents are believed to suffer from respira- needed to sustain a city or dispersing the tory diseases related to air pollution. Ca- wastes that threaten to make it uninhabi- nadian environmental analyst Vaclav table, the ecology of cities is a matter of &nil reports that "lung cancer mortality concern. Changes in the ecology of ex- in China is four to seven times higher in panding cities are now becoming evi- cities than in the nation as a whole, and dent. What is less obvious is that the eco- the difference is largely attributable to nomics of sustainablecitiesisalso heavy air pollution..." changing, favoring the smaller ones. Water pollution in Third World cities may be even worse than air pollution. Jorge Hardoy and David Satterthwaite of the International Institute for Environ- ment and Development report that only SEEKING A RURAL-URBAN 209 of India's 3,119 towns and cities BALANCE have even partial sewage systems and treatment facilities. Some 114 towns and The intimate relationship between rural cities dump raw sewage into the Ganges, and urban areas stretches far back into the country's holy river. And in Co- history, yet it is a marriage so obviousas lombia,120kilometers downstream to be forgotten by most. Residents of from Bogota's nearly 5 million residents, early Greek cities were aware of their de- the Bogota River has an average fecal pendence on agricultural bounty and bacteria coliform count of 7.3 million,an sought to limit city size by design. Lewis

70 (54) State of theVorldI987 Mumford describes the towns of Greece and national interests. It is between the as "both small and relatively self-con- rural classes and the urban classes. The tained, largely dependent on their local rural sector contains most of the poverty countrysideforfoodandbuilding and most of the low cost sources of po- materials."52 tential advance. But the urban sector A stable and productive farm economy contains most of the articulateness and helps ensure long-term food security. At power." As a result, the urban classes the same time, the improvements in liv- -have been able to win most of the ing standards associated with moderni- rounds of the struggle with the country- zation require urbanization as a way to side; but in doing so they have made the provide basic services and to capitalize development process needlessly slow on the economies of scale inherent in and unfair.-54 industrial processes, such as manufac- It is not uncommon for developing turing. The countries that underwent in- countries with 70 percent of their popu- dustrialization and urbanization in the lations in rural areas to allocate only 20 nineteenth century built their cities on percent of their budgets to the rural sec- successful agrarian foundations. tor. In such situations, investment per But the present uncontrolled urban urban dweller can easily be several times growth in the Third World is the result that per rural resident. Mexican urban of failed economic and population poli- analyst Gustavo Garza notes that be- cies, driven more by rural poverty than tween 1970 and 1980, federal spending urban prosperity. Economists Michael in Mexico City "far exceeded the worth Todaro and Jerry Stilkind write that of the entire existing industrial plant in -for developing nations, the policy of the city." And Michael Lipton points out neglecting agriculture .. has produced that a child from an Indian town or city stagnating or inadequate income growth is 8.5 times more likely than a village in rural areas, while the policy of import- child to make it to a university. This ing large-scale, labor-saving technology strong urban bias in the provision of ser- to achieve instant industrialization has vices, such as education, health, electric- meant that urban job opportunities have ity, and water, increases social inequi- not grown as fast as the numbers seeking ties:Itdeprives rural individuals of work." This is nowhere more evident opportunities and societies of sorely than in Africa, where both per capita ag- needed talent." ricultural production and urban and Migrants leave rural areas for a com- rural incomes have fallen back to the lev- plex array of reasons. Landlessness and els of the sixties. The challenge now be- high rates of rural population growth fore policymakers is to find a mix of pol- have foreclosed agrarian futures in every icy approaches that maximizes progress developing region. Some subsistence for the entire society." farmers migrate to cities on a seasonal Third World governments, with only basis, looking for supplemental employ- occasional exceptions, have favored cit- ment. But more move permanently in ies at the expense of the countryside. Mi- hopes of improving their income pro- chael Lipton, an analyst of rural-urban pects. relationships in developing countries, This movement presents several prob- graphically describes the conflicts that lems. First, the majority of those who arise: "The most important class conflict migrate, especially in the earliest stages in the poor countries of the world today of urbanization, are young men, the pri- is not between labor and [those who mary wage earners in traditional soci- control] capital, nor is it between foreign eties. But too few jobs and too many 71 Assessing the Fue of Urbanization (55) jobseekers lead to 20-percentunem- transferring net income to urban resi- ploymentrates and 40-percent un- dents. Both Thailand and India haveac- deremployment in many Third World tively restricted foodgrain exports inan countries.56 effort to dampen domestic urban food Second, due to low domestic agricul- prices. In Zambia, consumer maize sub- tural prices and the migration of job- sidies are an essential feature ofa food seekers to cities, the food surpluspro- policy aimed at encouraging the growth duced in the countryside may dwindleor of cities and attracting workersto the disappear. Consequently, urbanareas mines. Local producers of maize receive become increasingly dependent on im- well below market rates, encouraging ported food. To forestall impending the formation of a pool of labor for min- foodshortages,governments spend ing. At the same time, the low price of scarce foreign exchange that would be food in the cities due togovernment- better spent on fertilizer or irrigation subsidized imports helps keepwage pumps; were such investments made, costs down.57 they would expand food output and the The World Bank and International national product while creating employ- Monetary Fund are encouraging heavily ment. indebtedgovernmentsseeking new Aside from the inherent inequity, the loans to abandon the biased policies that urban bias evident in the economic poli- have contributedtotheir dilemmas. cies of so many Third World countries Many are being pressed to eliminate the wastes both rural human talent and nat- food subsidies that benefit primarily ural resources. Two policiesthe official urban dwellers and to adopt agricultural exchange rate that governs the terms of price policies that will stimulate domes- trade between a country and the outside tic food production and reduce depen- world, and the food price policy that dence on imported food. governs rural-urban terms of tradeare the principal means of favoring cities. Official exchange rates are set to make Thailand and India have actively imports cheap, often bringing the price of imported food below that of foodpro- restricted foodgrain exports inan duced in the surrounding countryside. effort to dampen domestic urban The economic stresses being feltin food prices. many Third World countries, including potentially unmanageable external debt, are one manifestation of this economic China offers perhaps the best example bias. of a country that has managedto regu- Food price policies directly affectru- late the growth of cities, by restricting ral-urban relationships by providingun- migration and investing heavily in the realistically cheap food for city dwellers countryside. The Chinese model willnot and discouraging private investments in fit all countries. But the example ispar- food production and hence ruralem- ticularly instructive in that rural incomes ployment. The resulting distortion in now rival urban ones as a result of wide- the development process helps explain spread agricultural reform. Few Third both the increasing reliance on imported World governments emphasize agricul- food and the attraction cities hold for the ture as strongly as the Chinese do, how- rural unemployed. ever. What is needed to adequately man- Such policies hold down producer age today's cities and to stem the flow of prices as well as rural incomes, thereby migrants is a set of farsighted national

72 (56) Slate o orld-1987 policies that increase national equity. In- don. There is no guarantee that vast cit- deed, the most effective efforts to ame- ies with tens of millions of peoplesuch liorate the problems facing cities may as projected for Mexico City or Calcutta, well be those to increase investment, and for examplecan be sustained or, in- hence employment and productivity, in deed, should be sustained, if doing so the countryside.58 requires heavy subsidies from the coun- Third World policymakers facc the tryside. Although the age of renewable question of how large cities should be in eirgy is only beginning to unfold, both a world that depends primarily on re- the ecology and the economics of a newableenergyresources.Existing world economy based largely on these urban projections are keyed to fmsil energy sources suggest that the future fuels rather than renewable sources, and may favor smaller cities and those who so may overestimate future urbaniza- live in rural areas.

7 3 Reas essing Nuclear Power Christopher Flavzn

At 1:24 a.m. on the 26th of April, 1986, the accident," as Soviet officialseu- two large explosions destroyed one of phemistically put it,1 four power reactors at Chernobyl in the The health of people and of the envi- Soviet Uniona blast heard round the ronment bothinthe Ukraine and world. Within days, much of Europewas throughoutEuropecouldwellbe experiencing the highest levels of radio- affected for decades. Estimates of future active fallout ever recorded there; within cancer deaths range from a few hundred two weeks, minor radioactivity was de- to more than 100,000. The Chernobyl tectedinTokyo, Washington, and nucicar cloud showed graphicallyand throughout the northern hemisphere. tragicallythat we all share the global The Chernobyl accident was by anymea- environment. sure the most serious nuclear accident The economic and political fallout the world has ever suffered. from Chernobyl may be evenmore The direct costs of the accident are widely felt. Many Europeans have lost high: 31 deaths as of September 1986; faith in government officials whom they 1,000 immediate injuries; 135,000 peo- believedeliberatelyunderstatedthe ple evacuated from their homes in the health threat from the accident. Public Ukraine; at least $3 billion of direct support for nuclear power, already quite finaneal losses. But the long-term im- slim in most countries, shrank to the lowest levels ever. Several politicalpar- plications are far greater, longer lasting, ties that once strongly favored nuclear and less dear, It may not be possible power or took a neutral stance have simply to -remove the consequences of come out strongly against it. In some An expanded version of thts chapter appeared as countries the debate is not over whether Worldwatch Paper 75, Reassessing Nuclear Power: The to build more reactors but whether to Fallout from Chernobyl. close existing ones. And nuclear power

74 (58) State of the World-1987 is now a contentious bilateral issue for CHERNOBYL'S TOLL several neighboring countries with dif- fering nuclear policies. From the early accidental discovery of Most nuclear programs were far from the Chernobyl nuclear cloud in Sweden healthy even before Chernobyl. Plant through weeks of announcements, warn- construction worldwide has fallen 45 ings, misstatements, and corrections, percent from its peak in 1980, and is the international community showed it likely to be down much further by 1990. was not even remotely prepared for such Only a handful of countries have steady an emergency. Yet ever since the first expansion programs. It now seems al- nuclear power plants of the fifties, engi- most certain that nuclear power's share neers have recognized the potential for of world electricity will be lower in the a catastrophic accident that would kill year 2000 than it is in 1987.2 people and contaminate the environ- Chernobyl marks a major milestone in ment. Elaborate and redundant safety the erosion of the world's nuclear pro- systems are used so that, even in the grams. The accident has forced a reas- event of a serious malfunction, these sessment of nuclear power's role, and a materials will not get into the human growing portion of the scientific commu- food chain or the wider ecosystem. The nity and the public at large believe that need to minimize this risk has led to ex- nuclear power as it has so far been devel- acting design and construction stan- oped is unacceptable. Antinuclear advo- dards. cates are no longer confined to the polit- At Three Mile Island, where the reac- ical fringes: Included now in their ranks tor's core partially melted in 1979 and are the Prime Minister of Austria, the heavily contaminated the plant, the reac- President of the Philippines, and the tor vessel and containment building kept leaders of the main opposition parties in all but a tiny portion of the dangerous Great Britain and West Germany. Prime materials from spreading acrossthe Minister ingvar Carlsson of Sweden, Pennsylvania countryside. The Ukraini- once a nuclear power supporter, added ans were not so fortunate. For the first up the damage to his country four time ever a large reactor exploded, lift- months after Chernobyl and concluded, ing a I ,000-ton steel cover plate off the "Nuclear power must be got rid of."5 reactor and obliterating the containment As we approach the end of the twen- structure. Much has been made of the tieth century, Albert Einstein's observa- factthatSovietgraphite-moderated tion that -the unleashed power of the reactors have relatively weak contain- atom has changed everything save our ments but it is not clear that any contain- modes of thinking" seems ever more ment in use today could have withstood profound.4 Our technological capacities the immense force of the steam explo- have produced au energy source whose sion caused by the runaway Chernobyl implications many citizensfindpro- reactor.5 foundly troubling. They argue that nu- Soviet scientists estimate that between clear power's long-term costsin waste 3 and 4 percent of the radioactive disposal, threats of terrorism, and acci- materials in the core were released to the dentsexceed anyconceivableeco- environmentabout 7,000 kilograms of nomic benefits. Chernobyl will force the material containing 50-100 million cu- world's governments to consider this ries of radioactive isotopes, over 1,000 possibility far more carefully than they times the amount released at Three Mile have so far. Island.6 Reassessing Nuclear Power (59) The immense force of the explosion, runoff to concentrate along valleys and combined with a resulting fire in the in reservoirs, forming -hot spots." graphite that surrounded the uranium A person can be injured by directex- fuel rods, forced radioactive materials posure to radioactive materials, by inhal- high into the atmosphere. Nearby ob- ing radioactive gases and dust,or by in- servers reported a spectacular fireworks gesting contaminated foodor water. display as burning uranium and graphite Chernobyl led to all threeexposures, were hurled into the night sky. Volatile but the largest concern outside the im- gases, smoke, dust particles, and pieces mediate vicinity was radiation taken in of the nuclear core itselfwere found through the food chain and watersup- downwind of the plantover the follow- ply. Radioactive materials fallingonto ing days, and Soviet scientists found the soil or grass can be consumed by dozens of radioactive isotopesamong grazing animals, where the radiation is these materials.7 further concentrated and thenenters The dispersion of radioactive fallout people by way of meat and dairypro- was left to the winds, as the fire at the ducts. damaged reactor raged for 10 days, spewing a radioactive plume into the air. Metropolitan Kiev, home to 2.4 million Radioactive materials were depos- people, was largely spared dueto winds that blew away from the city during the ited more than 2,000 kilometers worst period. But several wind shifts from the plant and in at least 20 brought the nuclear cloud over virtually countries. all of Europecxtendingas far north as the Arctic Circle, as far southas Greece, and as far west as the British Isles. Poten- The materials in the nuclear cloud in- tially health-threatening levels of radio- cluded up to 50 radioactive isotopes with active materials were depositedmore half- ranging from two hoursto than 2,000 kilometers from the plant and 24,000 years. The twomost significant in at least 20 countries.8 components were iodine 131 and cesium The Chernobyl nuclear cloud leftan 137, which is particularly hazardousbe- extraordinarily complex pattern of fall- cause of its 30-year half-life. Bothare out that may never be fully understood. chemically reactive elements thatare Many parts of Europe directly under the readily absorbed into biological materi- plume received little fallout while others als, thus contaminating the food chain.10 got larger amounts. West German re- In the first days, iodine 131was most searchers found that over a distance of worrying sinceitwas widely spread 100 kilometers, radiation levels varied and tends to concentrate in the thyroid by a factor of 15. Similarly, levels 100 gland, where it can cause thyroid nod- kilometersnorthwestof Stockholm ules that can become cancerous. How- reached 10 times those in the capital. ever, iodine 131 has a half-life of 8 days Not only was the radioactive cloudcom- and was largely gone withina few posed of many different elements with months. This is unfortunatelynot true varying weights and half-lives (the time it for cesium 137. for strontium 90, witha takes to decay to half the originalcon- half-life of 27 years, or for plutonium centration), but their depositionwas 239, with 24,000 yearsall of which heavily influenced by rainfall. Localto- were present in the Chernobyl fallout. pography then caused the radioactive American scientists estimate thatone

7 6 (6o) State of the World-1987 tenth to one sixth as much cesium 137 summer vacation a few weeks after the was released at Chernobyl as has entered disaster. The exposures of all these peo- the environment from all above-ground ple varied enormously, depending on nuclear weapons testing to date.11 the path of the plume, how much time The health effects of high levels of they spent outdoors, and what they ate radiation exposure are well known due and drank. However, Soviet doctors be- toinvestigationsatHiroshima and lieve that many of those exposed face Nagasaki as well as from accidents in- serious cancer risks in the years ahead volving workers at nuclear facilities dur- and there is a plan to carefully monitor ing the past 40 years. Most of the 29 them for the rest of their lives.14 people who died from radiation expo- Even low levels of radiation carry sure in the first few months were among some cancer risk, but medical scientists the 50 plant workers and firefighters do not know how much. The official So- who received direct radiation in excess viet radiation figures indicate that the ac- of 500 rads (units of absorbed radia- cident will raise the cancer rate in the tion).12 European part of the Soviet Union by Doses over 500 rads cause severe less than 1 percent according to the con- damage to the body's tissues, particu- sensus of medical scientists. Based on larly those that grow the fastest. Doctors observed fallout patterns, one to three report that many of the Chernobyl vic- times as many deaths are likely outside tims died slowly and painfully from radi- the Soviet Union. According to Robert ation burns. The bone marrow that pro- Gale, an American physician who helped duces the body's red blood cells was also treat the victims of Chernobyl, Soviet damaged in many patients. Efforts by an radiation figures imply that between international team of doctors to trans- 5,000 and 50,000 people will die of can- plant fresh bone marrow or fetal liver cer in the Soviet Union and the rest of cells into about 20 patients were of lim- Europe.' 5 ited success: Within three months, three Frank von Hippel, aphysicistat quarters of the patients were dead, some Princeton University's Center for En- killed by infections that overwhelmed ergy and Environmental Studies, used a their immune systems. Two hundred computer model to predict between more people received doses of between 15,500 and 135,000extra cancercases 100 rads and 500 rads, and although and a maximum of 35,000 extra deaths, they are still alive, long-term prospects mainly as a result of exposure to radioac- are not good. They are at increased risk tivecesium. None of the estimates of developing cancer, including leuke- should be considered more than edu- mia and tumors, for the rest of their cated guesses. The diverse pathways by lives.13 which people can receive radiation, the Estimating the health dangers to the enormous variations in exposure over wider population is more difficult. It was short distances, and a shortage of local not until 36 hours after the accident that monitoring equipment only compound an armada of 1,100 buses evacuated Pri- the uncertainties. And several medical pyat's 49,000 residents and all others scientistsinthe United States and within 10 kilometers of the plant. Later, Europe believe that Chernobyl's even- the evacuation zone was widened to 30 tual cancer toll will be far higher than the kilometers and 94,000 people, and consensus figures indicate.16 finally to 135,000 people. In Kiev, 80 These figures represent a serious kilometers south of the plant, all school- health threat, but one that is exceeded children were sent away for an early by other risks that societies live with. Reassessing Nuclear Power (61) Swedish scientists, for example, estimate the public by understating the health thatpeoplelivinginheavilycon- dangers. This mixture of paternalism, taminated areas are about half as likely bureaucratic incompetence, and lack of to die from cancer caused by Chernobyl preparation turned out to be a chaotic as in an automobile accident. And pollu- brew. In Italy, it was left to localgovern- tion from coal-burning power plants is ments and citizens' groups to monitor estimated to kill thousands of people radiation levels; even four months after every year who contract heart or respira- the accident, significantamounts of ce- tory disease or cancer. One thing is cer- sium were being discovered in wild tain: Chernobyl has created a hugeex- mushrooms, veal, rabbit, and mutton. In periment on the effect of radiationon the United Kingdom, official claims that human health.17 the country would be sparedwere fol- In the weeks following the accident, lowed by a deliberate National Radiolog- fresh vegetables in many parts of Europe ical Protection Board effort to downplay contained levels of radioactivity above the health effects, according toa report limits recommended by health authori- in New Scientist." ties,Cattle grazing on contaminated grass were soon producing milk with sig- nificant radioactive materials. This ledto Chernobyl has created a hugeex- both voluntary and mandatory foodres- trictions throughout Europe. For several periment on the effect of radiation months, perhaps 100 million people al- on human health. tered their diets." In the absence of accepted interna- tional standards, national,state, and As the Chernobyl cloud passedover local governments issued a widerange eastern France, the government repeat- of regulations and recommendations. In edly stated that the fallout had missed southern Germany, the local govern- the country and life could continuenor- ment in Konstanz severely restricted mally. Weather maps were issued show- milk and vegetable consumption, while ing sweeping turns in windcurrents as the adjacent Swiss canton of Thurgau they steered around France. But ina few took almost no precautions. Sweden days independent monitors revealed adopted a comprehensive nationalpro- that France had in fact received fallout gram, including extensive monitoring. comparable to that in adjoining nations. Eating of spring vegetables, berries, and The government tried to explain its mis- freshwater fish in some areas was dis- handling of the information by saying couraged when they were found to be that officials were on holiday. Though contaminated with iodine and cesium. widely criticized, it still refusedto issue Most of Sweden's cattle were restricted significant food restrictions.21 to their barns until meadows had been International organizations did little approved for grazing, a process thatwas either. The International Atomic Energy not completed until the end of the sum- Agency (IAEA) provided no foodor mer. Although itis hard to quantify, health recommendations. The World these restrictions probably helpedre- Health Organization madeno official duce Chernobyl's overall cancer toll in pronouncement until a week after the Europe.19 accident, and then issued only broad Throughout Europe, people were warnings, The European Economic confused and critical of what were per- Community (EEC) did adopt interim ceived as government efforts to placate limits on radiation levels incrops and

78 (62) Slate othe World-1987 restrictions on the import of fresh food Table 4-1. Soviet Union: Estimated from Eastern Europe for three weeks. Direct Financial Losses from the However, the standards were weak and Chernobyl Accident, 1986 clouded by political compromises. Since the accident, EEC ministers have consid- Loss Estimated Cost ered creating a radiological information (million dollars) service and permanent food standards.22 Siu cleanup 350-690 Scientists believe that in most areas Health care for victims 280-560 radiation levels will fall sufficiently to Relocation of residents 70 permit resumption of normal life within Replacement cost of plant 1,040-1,250 a year or twoprimarily due to the dilut- Lost agricultural output 1,000-1,900 ing effects of rain, wind, and ploughing. Some problems may persist, however. Lost export earnings 220-660 One exampleisSwitzerland's Lake Total 2,960-5,130 Lugano,whereauthoritiesbanned fishing on August 1 when it was discov- souitcE: "Economic Consequences of the Accident at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant," PlanEcon Re- ered that fish had concentrations of ce- ports, Issue 19-20, quoted in "The Cost of Cher- sium up to six times the EEC standard. nobyl,- European Energy Report (Financial Times Radioactive materials may remain in lake Business Information), June 13, 1986. sediments and some types of agricultural soils for several years.23 core remained entirely within the reac- In Scandinavia, the Sarni people (also tor vessel, is still under way seven years known as Lapps) were severely affected. later, and cleanup costs will pass $1 bil- Some 97 percent of the reindeer initially lion.26 slaughtered in late summer had radioac- Other countries are also adding up the tivity above the level recommended for costs, and some plan to submit their bills human consumption, a problem that bi- to the Soviet Union. In the United King- ologists believe may persist for years. dom, sheep farmers have claimed losses The result is a potential catastrophe for of $ 15 million. In Sweden, total costs are the delicate Lapland ecosystem and for projected at more than $145 million, the culturally endangered Sami people mainly for radiological monitoring and who depend on it.24 the compensation of farmers. The West The Soviets have mounted a massive German government reports it will pay cleanup effort near Chernobyl, bringing farmers at least $240 million for lost in equipment, conscripted workers, and sales.Poland estimatesthatitlost military forces from all parts of the na- $35-50 million in agricultural sales to tion. All nearby forests will have to be Western countries. For East European razed and the topsoil removed and countries already pressed for hard cur- buried. The town of Pripyat may not be rency, Chernobyl was a serious blow.27 habitable, and farmland in the area may Several Western governments plan to havetobe abandonedformany present claims against the Soviet gov- decades.23 In the Soviet Union alone, ernment at the World Court in The the direct costs come to $3 billion ac- Hague, but Soviet authorities say they cording to official Soviet estimates and will not accept the Court's jurisdiction, up to $5 billion according to indepen- flatly denying that Western countries dent economists. (See Table 4-1.) But have suffered significant damage. In- the eventual costs may be far above even deed, one top Soviet official has sug- the larger estimates. The cleanup at gested that funds should flow in the op- Three Mile Island, where the reactor positedirection,to compensate for

79 Reassessing Nuclear Power (63) damage that exaggerated Western press authorities downplayed the seriousness, reports did to the Soviet Union. Since no refusing to release detailed fallout infor- establishedlegal principles underpin mation and squeezing stories about the most of these claims, experts generally accident onto the back pages of Pravda. do not expect the World Court tore- Although the Chernobyl reactorwas quire compensation.28 blown to pieces in the initial seconds of The impact on the Soviet energy econ- the accident, days later the Soviet Union omy will be enormous, going far beyond was assuring the world that the reactor the 2,000 megawatts of power that has was "under control."38 been lost indefinitely. Authorities plan The Soviet silence and deceptions significant modifications of all reactors were only slightly more extreme than the of similar design, though mostcon- behavior of utility officials at Three Mile tinued to operate in 1986 after brief Island or British officials at the Wind- shutdowns. By way of comparison, the scale disaster in 1957. (The first press far less severe Three Mile Island acci- release issued during the Three Mile Is- dent resulted in extensive modifications land emergency denied there had been that delayed the completion of dozens of an accident.) Thus, the anti-Soviet reac- plants and added billions of dollars to tion was relatively brief in mostcoun- their cost. Blackouts have plagued the tries and was soon replaced bymore im- Ukraine since the accident, and power mediate concerns such as whether itwas shortages could persist for years. The dangerous to go for a walk or drink the country's energy expansion program water, and whether nearby nuclear facili- will inevitably be set back. With one of ties were safe.81 the world's least energy-efficient econo- This focus was a natural outgrowth of mies and with oil revenues sliding, the public opposition to nuclear power that Soviet Union can ill afford thesenew began to appear in Europe in the mid- blows.28 seventies. Opposition was generally lo- cally based, stirred up by the presence of nearby nuclear facilities. Nationaloppo- sition was led by citizens' groupscon- cerned with environmental and peace is- THE POLITICAL FALLOUT sues. But most major political parties, both left and right, remained committed Rarely have so many countries beenso to nuclear power during this time. By affected by a single event. Nuclear power 1986, most of Europe's antinuclear has been politically controversial for groups had peaked and were in de- more than a decade, and Chernobyl may cline.82 have decisively tipped the delicate bal- All of this changed on April 26. (See ance of opinion. But the fallout has Table 4-2.) By the summer of 1986, broader implications, testing the ability there had been a rebirth of large antinu- of East and West to cooperate in combat- clear demonstrations throughout West- ing a common danger, as well as the pub- ern Europe, including massive rallies in lic's confidence in government authori- Rome and at several controversialnu- ties and society's faith in technology. clear facilities in West Germany, where Despite an avowed new policy of hundreds of demonstrators and police openness, Soviet authorities waited al- were injured. By late August, over 1 mil- most three days before annouricing the lion Italians had signed petitions calling disaster, and that was only in reactionto for a referendum on the nuclearpro- outcries from Scandinavia. Even then, gram. Switzerland too announced its

80 (64) Stale of the Wor1d-1987 Table 4.2. Reactions to Chernobyl in Selected European Countries Country Citizen Response Political Response Austria Antinuclear movement victor oils Government decides to dismantle at home; protests in sole plant; develops formal neighboring countries, non-nuclear stance.

Finland Opposition doubles, to 64 New orders postponed. percent; 4,000 women go on childbearing strike.

France Public angered by disinformation All major parties remain on fallout but opposition pro-nuclear; safety study ordered.

Italy 100,000 protest in Rome; I All major parties turn against the million petition for nuclear nuclear program; conference on referendum. nuclear power planned.

Poland 3,000 petition government to halt Government affirms nuclear plans; construction until inspection by safety study ordered, upgrade IAEA. promised if found necessary.

Sweden Heavy fallout redoubles Government establishes non-nuclear consensus; many commission to consider detailed call for rapid phaseout. plans for previously agreed phaseout.

United KingdomOpposition to new plants up 18 Conservative government affirms points, to 83 percent; citizens nuclear course; Labor and block waste sites. Liberal parties call for phaseout.

West Germany Large demonstrations; Green Government establishes Party gains in state elections. cabinet-level post for nuclear safety; Social Democrats call for phaseout.

Yugoslavia Opposition nearly doubles in size;Planned plants postponed local antinuclear groups are pending safety evaluation. formed. suoucEs: Various news articles and personal contacts. third nationwide antinuclear referen- The opposition cuts across ideological dum in six years. British public concern lines. Thousands of Swedish hunters has focused on the low-level waste dis- and fishers have taken up the antinuclear posal program; hundreds of families cause. Farmers from northern Sweden blocked village roads in order to stop dumped 10 tons of cesium-laden hay in test drilling." front of government buildings in Stock- 81 Reassessing Nuclear Power (65) holm. In the Netherlands, powercom- it as part of a continuing pattern of tech- pany workers voted even before Cherno- nical problems and misinformation. As byl not to work on new nuclear projects. the most sophisticated and potentially In the United Kingdom, the Labour dangerous technology ever harnessedto Party called for a IO-year phaseout of meet basic needs, nuclear power re- nuclear power in September, despite the quires an extraordinary faith by ordinary opposition of workers employed in the citizens in their technical elitea faith nuclear industry. In Finland, over 4,000 that is now badly tattered.36 women declared a childbearing strike, pledging not to have children until the government changes its nuclear policy.34 Over two thirds of the people in Over two thirds of the people in most most European countries are now countries are now against the construc- tion of nuclear plants, a significant in- against the construction of nuclear crease since before Chernobyl. (See plants. Table 4-3,) About half the people in Europe favor the shutdown of existing facilities. Andrew Holmes of the Energy In France, Chernobyl's political fall- Economist writes, "Nowhere does nuclear out has been muted. Although the share power command the enthusiastic assent of the French opposed to further nuclear of a large majority of the population."" power development has reached 59 per- Three Mile Island had a similar initial cent, this is the lowest such figure in impact, and Americans' faith in nuclear Europe. French pride in the nuclearpro- power continued to drift downward in gram is strongly tied to a desire to be a subsequent years. Three Mile Island did leading technological power, free of for- not occur in isolation, and the public saw eign domination, And the Frenchtrust their elite. The philosophy,as one top Table 4-3. Public Opposition in Selected executive puts it, is "it would be totally Countries to Building Additional Nuclear unhealthy, counterproductive, and dam- Power Plants' aging for technical issues to be dealt with in public and constantly exposedto criti- Before After cism and statements by just anyone."37 Country ChernobylChernobyl A small crack appeared in this united (percent) front two weeks after Chernobyl, when the government admitted it had with- United Kingdom 65 83 held information on the health threat Italy 79 posed by the nuclear cloud. Soon after, United States 67 78 it was re...:aled that a French plant had Yugoslavia 40 74 suffered a critical malfunctiontwo years Canada 60 70 earlier but reports of the accident had West Germany 46 69 been quietly entered in official docu- Finland 33 64 ments and never reached public atten- France 59 tion. These revelations resulted incon- IAllpolls asked, essentially. -Are you for or demnation of what French editorial against building additional nuclear power plants?" writers called -nuclear disinformation.- though wording and polling techniques varied. The data arc therefore broadly comparable. Pre- However, officials soothed public fears Chernobyl figures are from polls taken between by setting up an interministerial commit- 1982 and 1986. tee to look into the charges, and criti- souncE: Worldwatch institute, based on Gallup cism soon faded." and other polls. The Chernobyl accident hasalso

8 2 (66) State of the lforld-1987 stirred opposition in Eastern Europe, den. Of particular concern is the Swed- which has comparatively little nuclear ish plant at BarsebNck, just 30 kilometers power but some big plans. The radioac- across the Oresund Strait and visible on tive cloud made a deep impression on a clear day from Copenhagen. Danish many East Europeans, in part because officials fear that the forced evacuation the previous lack of a public debate over of their capitalwhose 1.5 million resi- nuclear issues meant that many had no dents are almost a third of Denmark's idea a disaster hundreds of kilometers populationcould cause the virtual col- away could cause such problems. A peti- lapse of the national economy.42 tion signed by 3,000 Poles and endorsed Concern over BarsebNck has risen by the underground Solidarity move- steadily since the late seventies; after ment demanded that construction be Chernobyl the Danish parliament voted halted at one plant uinil it was inspected to ask Sweden to close Barsebäck, a re- by the International Atomic Energy questthe Swedish government has Agency." agreed to consider. In light of a wide- In Yugoslavia, local opposition groups spread feeling among Swedes that the have sprung up in several republics. In Danish request is well founded, observ- East Germany, citizen activists have peti- ers expect a decision to shut the plant tioned the People's Chamber of Parlia- down,'" ment, asking for a national referendum Cross-border disputes over nuclear on halting the nuclear program. And in power are not being settled so diplomat- the Soviet Union, the Moscow Trust ically elsewhere. At the French plant at Grouphasorganizedsmallstreet Cattenom, just 10 kilometers from both demonstrations to protest the govern- Luxembourg and West Germany, four ment'sfailuretoprovide adequate 1,300-megawatt reactors (one of the health warnings and to urge that the world's largest power complexes) are country's graphite reactors be shut down being built on the Moselle River. Some until they can be operated safely." 334,000 people live within 30 kilometers Nuclear power has now emerged as an of the plant and 1.5 million within 50 important bilateral issue causing ten- kilometers.44 sions between neighboring countries. Public opposition mounted quickly Chernobyl demonstrated that the effects afterChernobyl, and demonstrators of a nuclear accident can cross interna- from Germany and Luxembourg have tional borders with impunity, and in crossed the border to protest at Carte- Europe, 119 nuclear power plants are nom. Local West German governments located within 100 kilometers (62 miles) have requested that the project be re- of a national frontier. Nuclear plants are considered. They are opposed to the fa- often clustered near borders in part be- cility because it is in a heavily populated cause the large rivers that commonly area, is on swampland that has already form national boundaries can provide caused some buildings to sink, and does cooling water. Also, it is easier to per- not meet German safety standards and suade local communities to accept a nu- so, they say, should not be allowed to clear facility if half the affected people jeopardizethehealthof Germans. live across a frontier and so have no say French authorities have refused to yield, in the matter." claiming that the plant is as safe as any. Denmark, where the parliament voted They view the opposition as a manifesta- in 1985 never to develop nuclear power, tion of German -ne;Irotic anxiety" and is close to reactors in East and West Ger- flatly assert that other countries have no many as well as across the sound in Swe- right to question a plant located on 83 Reassessing Nuclear Po (67) French soiL Catt nom has becomea waste and has a history of mismanage- symbolic battle the Frencharc deter- ment. A report by thc British House of mined to win.45 CommonsEnvironmentCommittee Another battle is brewing over the states that the Irish Sea is "the most radi- Wackersdorf nuclear reprocessing plant oactive sea in the world." Many Irish citi- that West Germany has just startedto zens and politicians have asked that the build in Bavaria near the Austrian bor- plant be closed, but British officialsre- der. This facility would eventually han- fuse to consider dle nuclear spent fuel carried in from Outside of Europe, themost impor- Gorman nuclear plants. Therepro- tant cross-border dispute is between cessed high-level waste would travel by Hong Kong and China. Hong Kong utili- road or rail over 500 kilometersacross ties, the colony's British rulers, andChi- one of the most populated areas of nese officials have for years been devel- Europe for storage in saltcaverns in opingplanstobuildatwo-unit northern West Germany. In protest of 1,800-megawatt nuclear plant at Daya these plans, a small chapel has beenset Bay, just 50 kilometers from Hong up in the woods near the plant; services Kong. The $3.4-billion plant, the largest and demonstrations every Sunday in- joint venture China hasever undertaken, volve thousands of West Germansand will be financed by Hong Kong banks Austrians. Authorities have responded and Hong Kong utilities will purchase 70 by surrounding Wackersdorf witha mas- percent of the power.49 sive steel fence topped with barbed wire; nearby forests have been razed and the soil churned up to impede demonstra- Concern over Wackersdorf bas led tions. Protesters have been met byup to 6,000 riot police, 40 watercannons, 300 to a virtual break in relations be. vehicles, and numerous helicopters.46 tween Austria and Bavaria. Since Chernobyl, concern over Wack- ersdorf has led to a virtual break in rela- tions between Austria and the German Following Chernobyl, 1 millionpeo- state of Bavaria, including a threat to ple-20 percent of the adults in Hong stop the Austrian Vice-Chancellor from Kongsigned petitions objecting to the crossing the border to attend a Wackers- Daya Bay plant, mainly dueto fears that dorf protest. The Austriangovernment in an accident the people in HongKong has formally asked the Germangovern- would be trapped. China, however, has ment to stop the plant, stating that the dismissedtheobjections and Hong facility would pose serious dangersto Kong's legislative council has bowedto Austrian citizens. The West German Chinese pressure and has let the project Foreign Minister's reply is that hisgov- proceed despite public opposition. It is ernment is moving forward "without ironic that in the historic effortto reinte- pause for thought.-47 grate Hong Kong with China, scheduled A border skirmish has also flaredup for 1997, a nuclear project conceived by between Ireland and the United King- British colonial rulers butnow aggres- dom. Ireland is concerned about several sively defended by Beijing has becomea British nuclear facilities that discharge major stumbling block.50 radioactive materials into the Irish Sea, These disputeshighlightawider but they are particularly worried about point. The question of how nuclearpro- the Sellafield reprocessing plant, which jects are managed and even whether has illegally thanped largeamounts of they should be built is fast beingrecog-

8 4 (68) Stole of the Wor1d-1987 nized as an international issue in which cent of the world's electricity, ranging nations have a moral duty to consider from 65 percent in France to 31 percent the effects on neighboring states. The in West Germany, 16 percent in the 1986 IAEA meeting in Vienna resulted United States, and zero in many na- in an agreement (supported by the So- tions.53 viet Union) to provide immediate infor- The world's operating reactors repre- mation in the event of future radioactive sent a cumulative investment of well leaks that may affect other countries. over $200 billion; an additional $60 bil- Similar proposals have been made to the lionisspent annually building new Nuclear Energy Agency, which includes plants and operating existing ones. Nu- most Western nuclear nations, and to clear development is dominated by the the European Economic Community.51 most economically powerful and techno- IAEA delegates also agreed on a plan logically advanced nations: Five coun- to provide coordinated assistance in the tries have 72 percent of the world's event of future accidents. Some repre- generating capacity. This handful of sentatives wanted to go further. Hans countries sets the international nuclear pace, an axis of power that revolves Blix, the Swedish Secretary-General of mainly around Washington, Paris, Bonn, the agency, says that there is "growing and Tokyo. Even the Soviet Union has support- for a study on providing finan- tended to follow the path of the leading cial compensation in the event of trans- capitalist nations.54 national damage caused by future acci- The experience of most nuclear pro- dents. And the Soviet Union has called grams during the past decade can best for an expert committee to develop in- be summed up in a single phrase: low- ternational safety standards.52 ered expectations. In the early seventies, Such proposals are controversial be- when national nuclear programs were cause reactor designs and safety philoso- being rapidly geared up, planners had phies have always been considered sen- lavish ambitions. At one point the IAEA sitiveareas of nationalsovereignty. expected 4.45 million megawatts of nu- Nonetheless, major efforts will undoubt- clear power to be in place by the year edly be made to implement international 2000, with much more to follow. This standards and controls. It is in many would require 4,450 1,000-megawatt ways shocking that the world has come nuclear plants and is more than double so far into the nuclear age without such the size of the world's entire electricity agreements. system in 1986.55 Both national and international pro- jections of nuclear capacity have fallen steadily during the past 15 years. Today, the IAEA projects that the world will REVISING THE NUCLEAR have just 372,000 megawatts of nuclear DREAM power in 1990 and 505,000 megawatts in the year 2000. (See Table 4-5.) This The overall scale of the global nuclear is almost 90 percent below the agency's enterprise is impressive. As of mid-1986, 1974 projection, and a 45-percent de- the world had 366 nuclear power plants cline from the 1980 forecast. Yet even in operation, for a generating capacity of the most recent projection is more a 255,670 megawatts. (See Table 4-4.) hope than a realistic forecast. The cur- These facilities generate about 15 per- rent Worldwatch Institute projection is Reassessing Nuclear Power Table 4=4. Worldwide Nuclear PowerCommitm nt, July 1, 1986

Plants Plants Under Country Total Operating' Construction Commitmet (number)(megawatts)(number)(megawatts )(number) (megawatts) United States 92 78,618 28 30,849 120 109,467 France 44 38,948 18 22,210 62 61,158 Soviet Union 44 27,338 29 28,950 73 56,288 Japan 33 23,639 11 8,768 44 32,407 West Germany 16 16,114 7 6,877 23 22,991

Canada 17 11,145 4,361 22 15,500 United Kingdom 38 11,748 4 2,720 42 14,468 Sweden 12 9,435 - - 12 9,435 Spain 8 5,682 2 1,979 10 7,661 South Korea 5 3,580 4 3,686 9 7,266 Czechoslovakia 6 2,380 7 3,230 13 5,610 Belgium 7 5.450 - - 7 5,450 Taiwan 6 4,884 - - 6 4,884 East Germany 5 1,702 5 2,532 10 4,234 Bulgaria 4 1,760 2 1,906 6 3,666

Italy 3 1,285 3 2,004 6 3,289 Switzerland 5 2,930 - - 5 2,930 Finland 4 2,310 - - 4 2,310 South Africa 2 1,840 - - 2 1,840 India 6 1,244 2 440 1,684 Romania - - 3 1,680 3 1,680 Hungary 2 820 2 820 4 1,640 Argentina 2 935 1 692 Mexico 1,627 - - 2 1,308 Poland 1,308 - - 2 880 2 Cuba 880 - - 2 880 880

Other Countries 5 1,883 300 6 2,183 World Total 366 255,670 140 127,072 506 382,742 'Includes several plants in long.term shutdowns that may not be restarted duetosafety concerns. SOURCE: -World List of Nuclear Power Plants,-Nuclear News, August 1986. for 325,000 megawatts of nuclear capac- programs are almost as diverseas the ity by 1990 and 380,000megawatts by the end of the century.56 countries themselves. (See Table4-6,) High costs, slowing electricitygrowth, The reasons for scaling back nuclear technicalproblems, mismanagement, (7o) Slate World-1987 Table 4-5. Projections of Worldwide are scheduled after 1988. Even assuming Nuclear Power Generating Capacity for the usual delays, the U.S. nuclear con- 1980, 1990, and 2000 structionbusinesswillhavenearly stopped by 1990. U.S. nuclear capacity Source and Projection For will likely peak in about 1992 and will Year of then slowly decline as aging plants are Projection 1980 1990 2000 dceommissioned.57 (thousand The American nuclear collapseis megawatts) driven primarily by economic forces. Thc ratc of growth in U.S. electricity International Atomic consumption has fallen from 7 percent Energy Agency per year in the early seventies to 1.8 per- 1972 315 1,3003,500 cent since 1980. This led to a general 1974 235 1,6004,450 scaling back of construction programs 1976 225 1,1502,300 that had been designed for an era of 1978 170 5851.400 rapid growth. Most utility executives cut 1980 137 458 910 their nuclear projects first and most 1982 386 833 heavily, sometimes after spending bil- 1984 382 605 lions on construction. (Orders and can- 1986 372 505 cellations for coal plants have about bal- anced since 1980, whereas 54 nuclear Worldwatch projects were canceled and none or- 1986 325 380 dered.)58 SOURCES: International Atomic Energy Agency, An- Nuclear plants in the United States nual Reports (Vienna; 1972-80); IAEA, "Reference that cost less than $200 per kilowatt in Data Series No.I ," Vienna, September 1982: the early seventies carried price tags of IAEA, Nurfrar Power: Slams and Trends (Vienna: 1984-86); Worldwatch Institute. $750 per kilowatt in 1980, $1,900 per kilowatt in 1984, and over $3,200 per and political opposition have all had an kilowatt for the 23 reactors scheduled effect. Yet these various problems are for 1986 and 1987. The industry's own closely related. For example, rising costs figures indicate that electricity from new usually represent some combination of plants costs on average at least 120 per technicalproblems and mismanage- kilowatt-hour, while new coal plants cost ment. Political opposition often arises about 60 per kilowatt-hour and cogener- because of safety concerns or rising ation plants cost even less.58 costs. The U.S. utility industry, which in the The United States led the world into early years was able to sweep these costs the nuclear age and appears to be lead- under its huge financial rug, has finally ing it out. The last year a U.S. nuclear been overwhelmed by them. The system plant was ordered that was not subse- is largely made up of private companies quently canceled was 1974. Meanwhile, that must answer to investors as well as orders for 107 reactors have been with- state regulators. For many, the cost drawn, representing a capacity compara- overruns have been sufficient to raise ble to the plants now in operation and prices and damage their financial condi- under construction. Yet U.S. nuclear ca- tion, driving some to the edge of bank- pacity continues toriseasprojects ruptcy. The U.S. business magazine started in the early seventies are finally Forbes wrote in 1985 that "the failure of completed. In 1986 and 1987, 23 plants the U.S. nuclear power program ranks as are scheduled for completion. But only 4 the largest managerial disaster in busi- Reassessing Nuclear Power (71) Table 4-6. Adjustments to Nuclear Programs Since1980, Selected Countries

Country Nature of Shift Reasons for Shift Argentina 4 planned plants canceled; one Financial problems; foreign debt; under construction in danger of new civilian government. cancellation.

Brazil Government canceled 6 of 8 Financial problems; foreign debt; planned plants in 1986; delayed new civilian government. other 2.

China 8 of 10 planned plants canceled in Foreign-exchange requirements. 5-year plan of 1986.

France Slow down from 6 orders in 1980 Slowdown in electricity demand to 1 per year; government still growth; nuclear overcapacity. plans 90 percent of electricity from nuclear.

Italy Planned capacity of 13,500 Economics; safety; strong local megawatts in 2000 cut opposition. drastically; just one plant nea ing completion.

Japan Capacity goals cut in 1984; Slowing demand groh; technical construction down to 2 plants problems. per year; government remains committed to program.

Mexico Plans to build 20 plants scrapped Financial problems; foreign debt. in 1982; third and fourth reactors canceled.

Spain 5 plants under construction Rising costs and technical mothballed or canceled, 1984. difficulties; policies of new Socialist government.

Sweden 1980 referendum called for Safety and waste concerns phaseout by 2010; 1986 intensified by Chernobyl. decisions affirm course.

United States 54 plants canceled, no orders; de Cost overruns; slowing demand facto moratorium by utilities. growth.

West Ger any No new orders in 10 years; Intense political pressure by state phaseout possible. governments and opposition political parties; overcapacity. SOURCES: Diplomatic reports; various news articles. (72) State of the World-19 7 ness history, a disaster on a monumental and the regulatory processtsmore scale.-60 chaotic than in most nations. But the The late eighties will be a strange time main distinguishing characteristic of the for the U.S. nuclear industry. Schedules American system is its dominance by pri- callfor a major increase in nuclear vate utilities. Elsewhere, public authori- power generation during die next two ties are able quietly to pass the financial years, and since these plants are the sur- burden of nuclear power to the public at vivors of an era of massive cancellations, large. they should be the industry's star per- Nonetheless, most other countries formers.Sadly, many are economic have suffered their own nuclear set- disasters that should have been canceled backs. The West German nuclear expan- years ago. Safety experts believe that sion program has been stalled since the some have serious construction deficien- mid-seventies, and the seven plants that cies as wel1.6' remain to be completed include several Projectednuclearcostselsewhere troubled plants, three of which are in range from $2,000 per kilowatt in Can- jeopardy of cancellation. Since Cherno- ada to less than $1,000 in France, but byl,a vigorous political debate has most are close to $1,500, making nuclear begun over when to shut down the coun- power barely economical in some coun- try's existing plants. The ruling Chris- tries. (See Table 4-7.) Many U.S. nuclear tian Democratic Party wishes to wait 30 projects have been badly mismanaged, years, the Social Democratic Party has called for a phaseout in 10 years, and the Table 4-7. ProjectedCostof New wants to finish the job in Nuclear Power Plants in Selected two. Studies have shown that even a two- Countries year phaseoutisfeasible,with only minor economic penalties and a slight Nuclear increase in air pollution.62 Share France's nuclear power program is of Electricity, unique in having largely met its goals of Country Cost 1985 the early seventies. The nation already gets two thirds of its electricity from nu- (1984 dollars clear power and in 1987 has more nu- per kilowatt) (percen clear capacity than Sweden, the United United States 2,865 16 Kingdom, and West Germany com- United 2,080 19 bined. The French nuclear program is Kingdom highly centralized and run by state- Canada 2,019 13 owned companies. Reactors are built in Sweden 1,600 42 just six years, and neither local govern- West 1,429 31 ments nor citizens' groups can impede Germany projects.Socialist President Francois Japan 1,405 23 Mitterand came to power in 1981 prom- France 870 65 ising a reevaluation of the nuclear pro- Soviet Union 10 gram, but soon decided to leave it un- souaces: Nuclear Energy Agency, "Projected touched. Since then, the efficacy of the Costs of Generating Electricity from Nuclear and program has been questioned only by Coal-Fired Power Stations for Commissioning in those on the fringes of French politics.63 1995," OECD. Paris, 1986; electricity share from Yet despiteitsachievements,the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency,Nuclear Power: Matra and Trends, 1986 Edition(Vienna: French nuclear program faces a largely 1986). self-inflictedcrisis: The overarching Reassessing Nuclear Power (73) commitment to nuclear power has led 33 plants that now supply 23 percent of the state utility, Electricité de France the country's electricity, 11 are under (EDF), to order more plants than the construction. Japan has scaled back its country needs or can afford. EDF now initial plans as difficulties developed, but has a debt of $32 billionexceeding that carefully studied and correctedmany of most developing countries. The Presi- problems. In 1984, Japan lowered the dent of EDF admitted in 1986 that the forccast for its nuclear capacity in the country will have two to four "extra" year 2000 by 31 percent. Japanese utili- reactors by 1990, and the French labor tie3 are now ordering just tworeactors union CFDT has estimated Overcapacity per year, a rate more likely to fall than to in 1990 at 19,000 megawattstheout- increase. Public concernover nuclear put of 16 nuclear plants, representing all safety was heightened by Chernobyl, but the reactors ordered since 1979.64 it has not translated into any effective move to stop nuclear power.67 The nuclear program that is hardestto The Soviet nuclear programis judge is the one most directly affected by beset by problems that predate the Chernobyl accident. The Soviet Chernobyl. Union has followed Western countries into the nuclear agealbeit undera veil of secrecyand, like France, hascon- centrated on standardization. Priorto To justify its massive nuclear invest- Chernobyl, the Soviet Union and its East ment, EDF has prematurely shut down European allies had just released their relatively new oil- and coal-firedpower latest nuclear expansion plans, which plants, has promoted electricitycon- showed the Soviet Union buildingtwo sumption through a complex pricing thirds of the nuclear capacity planned system, and is marketing power to neigh- worldwide between 1990 and 1995. At boring countries. Nonetheless, substan- the September IAEA meeting, the chief tial overcapacity is expected forat least Soviet delegate confirmed these plans.68 a decade; officials are planning to run Despite the confident tone, the Soviet most nuclear plants at less than half their nuclear program is beset by problems rated capacity in the nineties.65 that predate Chernobyl. Reports have A representative for the state-owned reached the West of construction mis- nuclear company (Framatome) has said: haps and delays, including problemsat "One power plant a year is not sufficient the Atommash nuclear manufacturing to maintain Framatome. We would have facility, designed to build equipment for to cut employees and close one of our all the Eastern bloc's light-waterreac- two factories. It would be very difficult to tors. The plant required major recon- start them up again." Yet one order per struction, was completed fiveyears late, year is the best that Framatome can hope and is still not producing at the planned for, particularly given the bleak export capacity. These and other problems outlook since Chernobyl. The French have caused the Soviet Union to miss nuclear program may turn out to bea most of its nuclear targets by margins as costly relative of the Concordesuper- wide as any in the West.69 sonic jeta technological marvel buta Enormous efforts are now being made financial albatross.66 to fix the graphite-moderated reactors, Japan's nuclear power program has and by November two of the threesur- moved forward more slowly but also viving units at Chernobyl had been more steadily than France's. Beyond the restarted, a remarkable and perhaps

9 0 (74) Stale of the World-1987 risky achievement. (By comparison, it seventies and have put further plans on took six years before the reactor adja- hold. Brazil's sole operating plant (near cent to the damaged unit was restarted at Rio de janiero) was shut down by court th- Three Mile Island plant.)" order following Chernobyl and work has The restart at Chernobyl and the virtually stopped at the two plants being quick retrofits of similar reactors signal a built. Many development experts now Soviet commitment to get the nuclear believe that nuclear power has few at- program back on track. It remains to be tractions in the countries most likely to seen whether this will be accomplished. have rapid growth in energy use. (See The public is now concerned about nu- Chapter 5.) The Third World's precious clear health and safety issues, but the capital can be used for many more press- indirect link between popular opinion ing needs.72 and official action makes it difficult to The world is now in transition from know how the bureaucracy will respond. rapid growth of nuclear power in the late It also remains to be seen whether the seventies and early eighties to very slow nuclear slowdown in the West will affect growth in the nineties. While 114,400 the Soviet effort, and it will be several megawatts of nuclear capacity came years before the post-Chernobyl trend is on-line between 1981 and 1985, and apparent in the Soviet Union and East- 123,400 megawattsisscheduled for ern Europe. 1986-90, just 22,900 megawatts is sched- Plans for nuclear expansion in the uled for 1991-95. (See Table 4-8.)" Third World have also been drastically This represents a 75-percent decline revised. Only a handful of developing in the nuclear construction industry in countries (mainly South Korea and Tai- just five years. Although these figures do wan) will have significant amounts of nu- not predict future trends, since more clear power in the year 2000. China, plants can be ordered, they do indicate once a great hope of nuclear companies the general direction in which the world looking for export markets, announced is moving. Indeed, in North America and in March 1986 that its ambitious plans Western Europe, net additions during have been postponed indefinitely.71 the nineties will probably be lower than Latin American programs are in a indicated and could even be negative, shambles. Argentina and Brazilare particularly since these plans were devel- struggling to complete much-delayed oped prior to Chernobyl. Official Soviet and overbudget projects started in the plans call for 40,000 megawatts of new Table 4-8. Actual and Planned Worldwide Additions of Nuclear Power Generating Capacity, by Five-Year Intervals, 1971-951 North Western Eastern Europe Total Period America Europe and Soviet Union tiler Additions housand megawatts) 1971-75 32.9 11.0 6.1 5.5 55.5 1976-80 18.2 22.8 8.2 11.2 60.4 1981-85 28.4 49.6 18.5 17.8 114.4 1986-90 35.2 36.2 36.9 15.1 123.4 1991-95 3.0 6.3 4.5 9.1 22.9 'Figures based on pre-Chernobyl national plans and utility surveys. sougcr.: "World List of Nuclear Power Plants." Nuclear News, August Reassessing Nuclear Pow (75 ) nuclear plants between 1986 and 1990, that have kept it going for thepast two far more than shown in Table 4-8, but decades. Indeed, the global nuclearen- even before Chernobyl it was unlikely deavor is like a cancer patient who has that this target would be met. If the So- also suffered a heart attackCherno- viet nuclear program instead proceedsat by1.77 its current pace of 25,000megawatts Declining faith in nuclearpower is re- each five years, worldwide nuclearpower flected by the emergence of non-nuclear generation could peak before the end of energy policies in several countries. This the century.74 "non-nuclear club"iscomposed of countries with the capability and thepast inclination to rely on nuclearpower that have decided to forgo this source ofen- ergy. (See Table 4-9.) Several govern- BEYOND INDECISION ments decided some time ago not to de- velop nuclear power, but Chernobyl has The leaders of many countries rallied swelled the club's ranks. behind their nuclear programssoon The accident led Austria'sgovern- after the Chernobyl accident. The head ment to confirm a referendum decision of the Soviet delegation to the Septem- first made in 1978, to dismantle the ber IAEA meeting said that "the exploi- country's only (and never operated) tation of the atom's energy has become reactor, at Zwentendorf. Similarly, Cora- a realistic requirement, and is precon- zon Aquino, the new Philippines Presi- ditioned by interests of human civiliza- dent, announced soon after Chernobyl tion progress. We shall continue to de- that the newly completed Bataannu- velop nuclear power in our country in clear plant would be dismantled. And accordance with our plans for theyear Greece's Socialist government decided 2000.'15 to abandon plans to build the country's West German Chancellor Helmut first plant.78 Kohl told a national television audience, "Abandoning nuclear power would spell the end of the Federal Republicas an The global nuclear endeavor is like industrialized nation." Energy Secretary Peter Walker of the United Kingdom a cancer patient who has also suf- said, "If we care about the standard of fered a heart attackChernobyl. living of generations yet tocome, we must meet the challenge of the nuclear age and not retreat into the irresponsi- This non-nuclear clubmay gain some ble course of leaving our children and new members in the next few years. In grandchildren a world in deep and prob- West Germany, although the rulinggov- ably irreversibile decline."76 ernment is still against the rapid phase- Soon after Chernobyl, Hans Blix, out of nuclear power, the powerful So- Secretary-General of the IAEA, called cial Democratic Party is pressingto close nuclear power "a grown up industry, not down the plants. The future of thenu- an infant industry that might be dealt a clear program there will dependon the death-blow by one serious accident." results of the early 1987 parliamentary But nuclear power is a sick industry,not elections and related political develop- a mature one. Moreover, it is propped ments. At a minimum, nuclear power up by government subsidies and quickly generation will decline slowly during the losing the political life-supportsystems nineties. But West Germanymay have

9 2 (76) State af the World-1987 Table 4-9. The Non-Nuclear Club When Country Form of Non-Nuclear Policy Announced Australia Labor government has no-nuclear energy policy. 1983

Austria Public referendum barred plant from operating. 1978 Government announceil decommissioning. 1986

Denmark Parliament decision to never build reactors. 1985

Greece Decision to forgo first nuclear plant. 1986

Ireland No official policy, but consensus againsnuclear po er. late sev ntie

Luxembourg De facto moratorium; current governm nt has explicit early eighties no-nuclear policy.

New Zealand Labor government policy of Nuclear Free Zone; legislation 1984 pending.

Philippines Government decision to dismantle only nuclear plant. 1986

Sweden Public referendum to phase out plants by 2010. 1980 souucas: Diplomatic reports; various news articles. largely abandoned nuclear power by the bargain of nuclear energy has been lost. end of the century." It is high time to leave the path pursued In Italy,allthe major parties are in the use of nuclear energy in the past, against nuclear power, and the country's to develop new alternative and clean coalition government may soon develop sources of energy supply and, during the a plan to shut down the nation's reac- transition period, devote all efforts to tors. Switzerland and the United King- ensure maximum safety. This is the price dom are moving slowly in the same di- to pay to enable life to continue on this rection.Standingstronglyagainst planet."" reliance on nuclear power is now not Opinions on the future of nuclear only a respectable political position, it is power are more divided than at any time becoming the official policy of some gov- in the past. No consensus exists among ernments." scientists,politicians, or the general Austria's Foreign Minister shocked public. But despite the diverse opinions, the international nuclear establishment the direction of movement is clear, and when as host he addressed the 1986 it reflects a generational shift. Fewer en- meeting of the IAEA and explained the gineering graduates enter the nuclear government's new stand on nuclear industry now, and fewer young politi- powera statement considered rude by ciansadvocateitsexpansion.The IAEA standards: -For us the lessons world's nuclear programs are now run from Chernobyl are clear. The Faustian by older men, many of whom developed

93 Reassessing Nuclear Power (77) enthusiasm for the atom in the forties, plant disaster killedmore than 2,000 when nuclear prospectswere bright. Most of their successors have people, for instance, and the Mexico not inher- City earthquake killedat least 5,000.85 ited their optimism.82 It is true that the direct health Getting the nuclear endeavor back impact on of nuclear power has been minorso far. track would require manyyears of trou- But Chernobyl alonemay eventually ble-free plant operation, the speedyres- causetens olution of the waste disposal problem, of thousands ofcancer deaths, and this is but the first suchacci- and the elimination of threats of nuclear dent. It is the long-term and unpredict- terrorism. The combination isnot likely able consequences of and may not even be possible. Yet with- a nuclear accident that people fear the most, and thedis- out such developments, a growingnum- turbing truth is that experts donot know ber of people are likely to call foran end how safe nuclear plants to nuclear power." are. Moreover, the Chernobyl accident includedunex- The nuclear industry continuesto pected phenomena, demonstratingas blame most of its problemson an overly Three Mile Island didthat it is fearfuland impos- technologicallyignorant sible to anticipate all problemsat nu- public. This argument raisessome basic clear plants. issues about modern societies andthe Although the accident occurredat a way political institutions deal with com- plant of uniquely Soviet design, itsmain plex and potentially dangeroustech- cause was the same as at Three Mile Is- nologies. Although public understand- land: operator error. Human beingsare ing of nuclear issues is certainly limited by nature capable of making and some fears are misplaced, mistakes public that cannot be foreseen, and thehuman concerns broadly reflect those of the element can never be excludedfrom scientific community. safety systems. Despite the modifications Local opposition to the disposal ofra- made after Three Mile Island andthe dioactive wastes, for example,may be changes the Soviets now plan, largely due to the NIMBY ("not in reactors my remain vulnerable to catastrophicacci- back yard") syndrome, but it reflectsa dents. Safety measures judgment by many geologists that can only reduce un- their likelihood. It is also disturbingthat, derground storage of wastesmay one in the United States day lead to serious public health at least, the indus- prob- try's recent operating record isquite lems. The fact that the worldnow has poor. It may be only a matter of time almost 400 nuclear power plants but not before one of the dozens of seriousinci- a single long-term waste disposal pro- dents that occurs eachyear ends in an- gram yet in place must be considered other disaster.88 one of the major failings of the nuclear No one knows how oftennuclear era.84 disasters will happen. The elaborate Those who favor nuclearpower often probablistic risk assessments conducted say it is held up to unrealistically strict in the past decadeare now under chal- standards. Its environmental and health lenge because they failto reflect the impacts, they argue, are less thanthose enormous complexity of nuclear systems of coal plants, which are estimated to kill and because they have beenmisused by thousands of people eachyear, mainly industry representatives attemptingto through air pollution. Nuclearpower, it demonstratethesafetyof nuclear is said, presents relatively small risks power.87 compared with others that modern soci- Government studies show that eties live with. The Bhopal chemical core- damagingnuclearaccidentsshould

9 4 (78) Stale o ie -orld-1987 Thousand mark the outer boundary of damage Reactor from a nuclear accident. Many plants are Years closer to large cities than Chernobyl is, 10 and in future accidert:s the weather con- Soares.: Nuclear News ditions may be less favorable. Moreover, many countries with less 8- regimented societies may have more difficulty dealing with the consequences 6 - of a nuclear accident than the Soviet Chernobyl/ Union did. In the United States, for ex- - Accident ample,evacuationplanning extends only to 16 kilometers, yet the Soviets Three Mile evacuated everyone within 30 kilometers 2 Island and all children within 150 kilometers, Accident Worldwide, more than 700 million peo- ple livewithin 160 kilometers (100 miles) of a nuclear plant. (More than 20 1960 1970 0 2000 million people live that close to the In- Figure 4-1. Cumulative Years of N- ,oPr dian Point nuclear plant in New York Reactor Operation Worldwide, State.)°° With Projections to 2006 U.S. government studies show that a major accident near a large urban area occur only once every 10,000 to 1mil- with unfavorable winds could cause lion years of reactor operation. (With the losses as high as $150 billion and result number of plants likely to be operating in 140,000 deaths. In Europe, where worldwide in the year 2000, this would reactors are generally closer to cities, the mean one accidentevery 20-2,000 figures could be even higher. In some years.) However, the Three Mile Island instances an accident might require the accident occurred after just 1,500 years permanent evacuation of millions of of reactor operation, and Chernobyl fol- people and could cause a virtual national lowed after another 1,900 reactor-years. collapse.91 (See Figure 4-1.)88 If this accident rate continues, three additional accidents would occur by the If this accident rate continues, yea,: 2000, at which pointwith over three additional accidents would 500 reactors in operationcore-damag ing accidents would happen every four occur by the year 2000. years. Scientists in Sweden andWest Germany estimate that there is a 70-per- cent probability that another such acci- Thus, although the overall risk of a dent will occur in the next 5.4 years.89 nuclear catastrophe may be small, its po- Not all nuclear accidents are catas- tential magnitude could well exceed any- trophic. At Three Mile Island, where the thing that modern civilization has ex- reactor vessel was not breached,the perienced outside of war. Are people in damage was confined to the power plant fact misguided in not wanting to use a itself, resulting in no immediate deaths technology that poses even a small risk and direct economic damages of perhaps of such a catastrophe? $2 billion. But even Chernobyl does not As a matter of simple practicalit:t is

95 Reassessing Nuclear Power (7)) questionable whether countriescan or so essential that we should curtail demo- should base their powersystems on cratic institutions and accepta French- technologies that much of the public style centrally plannedenergy system as finds objectionable. Although modern a fair price to pay? societies must deal with manycontrover- Reliance on nuclear power for 80-90 sial issues, the nuclear endeavor is al- percent of electricity (which the French most unmatched in the steadily mount- are planning) could also force a govern- ing opposition it has faced. Such battles ment to shut down most of the power take a toll morally as well as econom- system (and economy) in the event ofa ically.In some countries they have serious accident. And the threat ofter- begun to tear at the national political rorism means that nuclearpower com- fabric. Does it make sense topursue nu- plexes must be virtual fortresses, with clear power if to do so leaders will have heavily armed security forces andsur- to struggle continually with those they veillance equipment. Outside the mili- represent? At what point does the politi- tary, modern society has no other facili- cal cost of such campaigns exceedany ties that require this scale of protection. benefits? A West German government-sponsored The extent of public oppositionto nu- study examined the societal implications clear power also reflects a realization of of a large-scale nuclearpower system the ultimate implications of pursuing the and found that the securitymeasures nuclear path. By the year 2010 several needed would make much of West Ger- thousand conventional reactorswere to many a police state, requiring a curb on be operating, many of them at the edge states' rights, a suspension ofsome civil of large cities. Hundreds of breeder liberties, and perhaps evena change in plants were to be running on plutonium the constitution." that would ride the world's highways and The world's nuclear leaders have lost railroads from the reprocessing plants their early vision but havenot found a where it would be refined. new one, leaving many nuclear pro- Nuclear waste sites and fuel manufac- grams in shambles. Justifying the huge turing facilities were to beas common in costs of an industry that will supply less 2010 as steel plants are today. Withouta than 15 p rit of the world's power major improvement in industryper- and 5 perc,....t of its energy in theyear formance,seriousnuclearaccidents 2000isincreasinglydifficult.Fast- would have become a regularoccur- breeder reactors that just fiveyears ago rence in the twenty-first century. Cher- were assumed to be the successors to nobyl gave people a glimpse of thenu- conventional plants are in theprocess of clear future, and they didnot like what being abandoned as a costly dead end. they saw. There is talk of buildingnew, -inher- The political implications of that fu- ently safe" reactors, but theseare at best ture may be just as troubling. Most of the decades in the future. Noone yet knows world's nuclear executives point with which designs to pursueor when they some envy to the French nuclear pro- might be ready." gram. But that program is made possible One costly side effect of this confusing by a political system that people inmany situation is that efforts to developnon- other nations would find objectionable. nucleartechnologiesand newap- Public participation in decision making, proaches to energy policy have beenpar- for example, is more limited than in alyzed. Attempts to reduce acid rainm-e most Western nations. Is nuclear power forestalledbecause energyplanners (8o) State of the World-1987 continue to argue that nuclear power is byl's lasting legacy may be that it has the only real solution. Energy conserva- helped put such issues squarely on the tion receives short shrift because its suc- table. cess would make it difficult to justify or- The conclusion here isthat many dering enough nuclear plants to keep countries will opt for the deliberate, the industry profitable. And important planned phaseout of nuclear power. reforms of electric utility systems are Those that do not may believe they are delayed because the end of utility gaining an important technological ad- monopolies could bring the market's vantage, but more likely they will be verdict down on the remaining nuclear preoccupied with divisive struggles that programs. will weaken them politically as well as Nuclear power is advocated and ob- economically. In the end, they too will jected to for dozens of reasons, and the likely move away from nuclear power rationales on both sides make sense a step that is not only an economical op- when viewed in isolation. But the ulti- tion, but the most practical path to fol- mate decision should be based on soci- low. ety's wider vision of its future. Cherno- Electrifying the Third World Christopher Flavin

Developing countries have over thepast to follow a nuclear path, the 1986 acci- few decades devotedenormous re- dent at Chernobyl has forceda reconsid- sources to establishing electric power eration of those plans. (See Chapter 4.) systems, which planners consider essen- Third World electrification effortsare tial to the creation of modern societies. closely modeled on the large utility The results include many impressiveen- monopolies and centralpower plants gineering achievements anda rapid typical of industrial countries. Western growth in the availability of electricity. banks lend money for the projects and But they also encompass environmental Western engineers help design them. destruction, the displacement of indige- But conditions in developing countries nous peoples, and crippling foreign debt differ greatly from those in industrial in many nations. ones. Technical skills are often lacking, Most Third World electrification pro- management is less rigorous, and popu- grams are currently unsustainableand lations dispersed inrural areas are so are unlikely to serve broader develop- harder to reach with electric lines. ment goals or help create sustainable so- Perhaps the most important difference cieties. Financial difficulties and increas- is that for developing countries the bulk ingly frequent blackouts plaguemany of the expansion effort lies ahead. The countries. Power systems in some Third World has just 120 watts of elec- cases tricity per person, compared with 2,900 are starting to drag developing econo- watts per person in the United States mies down rather than support them. a twenty-four-fold difference. Some 1.7 For the few nations that have attempted billion people in developing countries, Portions of this chapter appeared in Worldwatch mostly in rural areas, haveno electricity Paper 70.Electricity For A Developing World: New Di. at all. Although 80 percent of the people rections. in Costa Rica and 60 percent of those in 82) State of the World-1987 China have electricity, fewer than 10 fifties. Electricity systems dominated by percent in countries such as Bangladesh, private utilities, as in the United States Kenya, and Nepal do.1 and Japan, are now rare in the Third Developing countries need to carve World, though a few large nationsBra- out their Own electrification programs zil and India, for examplehave com- based on their needs and resources plex systems mixing both public and pri- rather than on Western models. These vate agencies. must be based on a clear vision of the Third World nations now use six times future and a realistic assessment of the as much electric power as they did two financial and physical resources avail- decades ago. The rapid development of able. Electricity is important to develop- sizable electric power systems is a major ment, but it must be weighed against achievement for many developing coun- other needs. In the past, cities and in- tries. Compared with industrial coun- dustries have generally been favored tries, however, electricity plays a rela- over rural villages. In the future, rural tivelysmallroleinThird World energy programs will require more em- economies. Wood and crop wastes still phasis. provide at least 12 times as much energy The Third World also cannot afford as electricity does. the inefficient use of electricity that is As of 1982, annual per capita electric- typical throughout the world today. Pro- ity use ranged from highs of 1,402 kilo- grams that improve efficiency can pro- watt-hoursinArgentina and1,192 vide developing countries with electric- kilowatt-hours in South Korea to 36 kilo- ity services at far lower casts than most watt-hours in Bangladesh and 23 kilo- new power sources being developed. watt-hours in Nepal, enough to light a Also, small-kale power plants based on 30-watt bulb for a month. (See Table 5 fossilfuelsandrenewableenergy 1.) These figures contrast with per capita sources often are more suited to Third consumption of 9,600 kilowatt-hours in World power systems than large central the United States.2 plants are. By exploring these options, Even inthe wealthier developing countries where per capita electricity use developing countries can better use is relatively high, a large share of the electricity to achieve overall develop- population may be completely without ment goals. power. Over half the electricity pro- duced in most developing countries goes to industry, a far larur fraction than in the industrial world. And most of the electricity is used in just a handful of AN EMERGING POWER power-intensive industries, often those CRISIS that produce goods for export. In Mex- ico, 55 percent of the electricity is used Electric utilities are among the s ronger by industry; in South Korea, the figure is institutions in the Third World, thanks 68 percent.3 Electricity use in the mod- both to the magnitude of their financial ern Office buildings and hotels that dot resources and to their partial autonomy the skylines of many Third World capi- within the political system. Most devel- tals is also growing rapidly. oping countries are served by large, na- Household use of electricity is limited tionally owned utility systems, many of in most developing countries. Many peo- which were expropriated fromfor- ple cannot afford to purchase. let alone eign-owned private companies in the operate, appliances that are heavy power

9 Electnfying the Third World (83) Table 5-1. Per Capita Income and ElmtricityUse in Selected Developing Countries, 1982

Per Capita Per Capita Country Income Electricity Use Electricity Use (million (dollars) kilowatt-hours) (kilowatt-hours) Argentina 2,520 39,804 1,402 Brazil 2,240 151,721 1,197 South Ko ea 1,660 47,197 1,192 Mexico 2,737 0,589 1,103 Costa Rica 1,806 2,500 1,041 Zimbabwe 849 7,614 1,015 Colombia 1,300 22,564 837 Philippines 746 20,560 405 Nicaragua 802 1,153 Thailand 400 764 17,687 365 China 307 327,578 325 Bolivia 932 1,703 290 India 247 138,677' 197 Zaire 203 4,392 143 Kenya 420 1,098 110 Senegal 541 633 105 Indonesia 524 12,722 83 Niger 338 350 60 Bangladesh 132 3,305 36 Nepal 136 356 23 sovRcr: World Bank, "1982Pow/Energy Data Sh ets for 104 July 1985. evcloping Counts ies," Washington,.C.,

users, Even in cities, only the wealthiest they were relatively inexpensive. Im- families can pay for refrigerators, elec- ported oil then cost only $2-3per barrel. tric stoves, air conditioners, and the Startingwithrelativelyinsignificant other appliances that many consumers in power systems, most utility officialses- the industrial world take for granted. timated a need to expand electricitysup- Residents of Manila or São Paulo typi- plies at over 10 percent annually.This cally pay as much for electricityas do massive constructioneffort was just their counterparts in Washingtonor gearing up when oi; prices soared inthe Paris, but because their incomesare far early seventies. smaller, their electric billsconsume pro- Third World power systemsare still portionately more of their incomes. heavilydependentonfossilfuels, Projections of growing demand in the though hydropower is the predominant Third World led to the first bigwave of and most rapidly growing electricity power plant construction in the sixties. source in many countries. (See Table Many oil-fired plants were built because 5-2.) In 1980, the most recentyear for 1 0 (84) 987 Table 5-2. Eleetrieity G4-41 --- in f'.,,,.-2cted Countries, by Source, 1982

. -. Capacity Provided by Source Tota' Country Capar Hydro Geothermal Nuclear (mega, (percent) China 72. 32 0 Brazil 38..110i 85 0 India 38. 34 2 Mexico 21 31 0 Argentina 49 0 3

South Korea 79 10 11 Philippines ' 64 25 11 Thailand 71 29 0 lombia 36 0 Indonesia 3,5 )3 83 16 1

Zaire 1,716 3 97 0 Zimbabwe 1,192 41 59 Bangladesh 990 92 8 Costa Rica 657 30 70 Kenya 574 33 62 5

Bolivia 508 44 56 0 Nicaragua 400 65 26 9 Senegal 165 100 Nepal 162 22 78 Niger 100 100 0 SOURCE: World Bank, 982 Power/Energy D eveloping Countries,- Washington, D.C, July 1985. which data are available, hydropower percent and 36 percent of their hydro- supplied 41 percent of Third World power potential by 1980, Asia had har- electricity, coal supplied 15 percent, and nessed just 9 percent, Latin America 8 oil, 37 percent. Most of the largest devel- percent, and Africa 5 percent.5 oping countrieswith the important ex- Third World hydropower develop- ceptions of Brazil and Colombiaob- ment involves some of the largest and tain at least 60 percent of their power most expensive civil works projects in output from fossil fuels and many rely history, including the 10,000-megawatt extensively on oil.4 Guri project in Venezuela and the Many developing countries have ex- 12,600-megawatt itaipu plant on the cellent hydropower potential, which is Brazil-Paraguay border, both of which usually associated with mountainous are still under construction. The latter terrain and abundant rain or snow. project will produce as much power as Managed properly, hydropower is a re- 13 nuclear plants. Between 1978 and newable energy source immune from 1983, Mexico's hydropowe r capacity fuel price increases. Whereas North rose 43 percent, Brazil's increased 55 America and Europe had developed 59 percent, and Argentina's, 58 percent.6

01 Eleetnfying the Third World (85) The World Bank projects that be- plans to boost its coal-generatingcapac- tween 1980 and 1990, hydro capacity in ity of about 50,000megawatts to over the Third World, excluding China, will 140,000 megawatts in thenext 13 years. more than doublerising from 100,000 Most of the country's 12,060megawatts megawatts to 201,000 megawatts. China of oil-fired generating capacityhas al- has 17,000 megawatts of large hydro ready been converted to coal.8 projects under construction that will Coal development entails much larger bring the country's total from thissource environmental trade-offs than hydro- to 41,000 megawatts. The proposed power. Northern Chinese cities are al- Three Gorges projecton the Chang ready heavily polluted bY coalburning, iang (Yangtze) River would provide ad- and evidence of acid rain damageis be- ditional capacity of about 13,000mega- ginning to appear in watts.? some parts of the Third World. The highCOSE and com- The environmental and hurrrincosts plexity of pollution control technologies of some of these hydropower projects have impeded their widespreaduse in are substantial. Construction of new many developing countries. In addition, dams has displaced millions of people, coal combustion is a major contributor flooded agricultural land, and trapped to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, river silt that once fertilized plains. which many scientists believeare in- The visions of power plannersare now creasing so rapidly as to severely alter often in direct conflict with the needs of the rth's climate within 30to 50 indigenous people. years.(See Chapter 9.) The Kuriba Darn built in Zimbabwe in the sixties uprooted 56,000 people, many of whom never found suitable homes, farmland, or clean drinking Spending on Third World .olectrifi- water. The Three Gorges project in cation now approaches $50 billion China would increasethecountry's each year. power capacity by 15 percent, reduce flooding downstream, and provide addi- tional irrigation for the rich Sichuan Nuclear power, once widely promoted Plain. But it would also flood thousands in the Third World, has lost groundin of hectares of rich agricultural land and many nations. For developing countries, displace between '300,000 and 1 million nuclear power is not only complicated people in one of China's most densely and expensive, it requiresmore foreign populated regions.8 exchange than do mostpower invest- Third World governments also wish ments. Major projects in Argentina. Bra- to increase coal's contribution to elec- zil, and the Philippines haverun into tricity generation. The World Bankpro- technical and financial problems;politi- jects an expansion of coal-firedgen.,r- cal disputes have drastically slowedpro- atingcapacity,excludingplantsin grams in Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan. Only China, from 35,000 megawatts in 1980 in the rapidly industrializing FarEast has to 92,000 megawatts by the year 2000. nuclear power contributed significantly Most of this development isconcen- to electricity supplies. In 1986, South trated in the few Third World countries Korea had 3,580 megawatts of nuclear with substantial coal reserves, such as capacity (22 percent of its total),and India and Colombia. China, which hasas Taiwan had 4,884 megawatts (52per- much coal in reserves as the Soviet cent of the total). Yet even in these Union and the United States combined, countries there are indications thatthe 102 (86) State of the World-1987 accident in Chernobyl may slow plans nificantly the result of huge public power for additional nuclear plants. (See Chap- investments in nearly ali of the coun- ter 4.)11 tries." In Costa Rica, 18 percent of the The cost of building additional gen- country's foreign debt is attributed to erating capacity in the Third World has the power sector;in Honduras, the increased dramatically since the mid- figure is 33 percent." seventies. Not only are hydropower and Electricity consumption in most devel- coal plants inherently more expensive oping countries is so low and the poten- than oil plants, but developers have had tial future uses so great that electricity to turn to more costly hydro projects use continues to expand even when the since the most attractive sites are already economy does not. The World Bank developed. In the sixties, hydro projects projects that developing countries will costing more than $800 per kilowatt have to invest $60 billion in electric were considered economically question- power each year in order to keep up with able, but now many devtloping coun- a demand growth rate of 7 percent. is- tries are building facilities that cost from This is more than the Third World re- $2,000 to $3,000 per kilowatt. Construc- ceives in development assistance funds tion cost increases have coincided with a annually. These investment goals are for period of high interest rates an6 (until the most part unattainable, and many recently) high oil prices.12 utilities are not keeping up with demand. Spending on Third World electrifica- The combined pressures of underfinanc- tion now approaches $50 billion each ing and overuse result in inadequate year. Typically, about one third of a generating capacity and blackouts. powerproject'scostrequiresfor- eign-exchangepaymentstooutside companies, a burden made worse by Many Third World utilities are sim. high interest rates. The World Bank and ply no longer credit-worthy. the regional development banks have devoted about 20 percent of their lend- ing to electricity development and have encouraged commercial banks to invest Financial pressures often cause utili- heavily in Third World power systems. ties to cut back on maintenance work, Such projects now account on average which reduces reliability. In many coun- for about one quarter of public capital tries, over 30 percent of the power trans- investments in developing countries, or mitted islost because of inadequate up to 2 percent of gross national prod- maintenance, undersized lines, and il- uct's legal tapping of power lines. Pakistan Although no precise figures are avail- faces some of the worst problems: able, total Third World utility debt can Losses on the national power system av- be estimated at over $180 billion, which erage 38 percent and blackouts occur is one fifth of the Third World's ac- daily. China's leaders project that the na- cumulated foreign debt of over $900 bil- tion's electricity supplies (growing 6 per- lion. National treasuries are in all cases cent annually) will not keep up with the ultimate guarantors of these debts. A needs and so 'will constrain industrial 1985 report to the U.S. Agency for Inter- growth. Already, in Sichuan Province national Development on the situation power is cut three days a week to ensure in Central America concluded that -the adequate power the other four days.16 region's financial crisis, and its con- The financial problems of many elec- straints on future development, is sig- tricutilitiesare getting worse. The Electnfying the Third World (87) World Bank has projected a $32-billion budgets,strengthen ngmaintenance gap between utility needs and financial procedures, raising salaries, and capabilities in Latin America and intro- the ducing bettermanagement t.echniques Caribbean during the next fiveyears. In are thus essential to any serious many cases, the cost of servicing the util- program of improvements of Third Worldpower ity's debt absorbs most of theoperating systems. Internal changes and external revenues; constructioniscontinually pressure from lending agencies aremov- adding to the debt load. Chileis fairly ing many utilities in this direction. typical, with a planned constructionbud- To get of $1.4 billion for 1984-88 and meet the ever-growing demand foren- ergy, however, planners need to make scheduled interest payments of $1bil- even more fundamental changes. lion, but with projected operatingreve- nues of just $1.1 billion." Increasingly, gorernment leadersare projecting financial shortfalls andforc- ingutilitiestocurtailconstruction spending. Recent budget negotiationsin DEVELOPING ELEC,TRICITY Brazil and India forcedpower authori- EFFICIENCY ties to halve planned expenditures.A study of Central American utilitiescon- Even analysts who should knowbetter cluded that "due to a combinationOf often dismiss the potentialto improve existing debt obligations andinternal energy efficiency in developingcoun- organizational problems, the largena- tries. Per capitaenergy use in develop- tionalutl!itiescould havedifficulty ing countries is low, they pointout--and financing plar.ned power investments, so rapid growth in energy consumption beginning immediately.- Many Third is assumed to be inevitable. Thiserro- World utilities are simplyno longer neous assumption threatens to discour- credit-worthy, and the banks refuseto age developing countries trom investing issue new loans.18 in one of the essential elementsof their The problem is not simplymoney. energy future. Many Third World powersystems have If energy efficiency is economicallyat- also outgrown theirown internal man- tractive when electricityuse is relatively agement capabilities and are increas- stable, it is even more attractivewhen ingly short of technical expertise.Cor- use is rising rapidly, since it can displace ruption has become widespreadin some some of the most expensive planned countries, as symbolized by the mul- generating capacity. Lookedat another timilliorrdollar payoffs that allegedly way, greater efficiency can increase the passed from the U.S.-based Wrsting- productivity of the large numberof house Corporation to theMarcos gov- power plants being built in the Third ernment in the Philippines in orderto World. secure a contract for the Bataan nuclear Research and development havein- plant. In addition, some utilities,having creased the efficiency ofmany technolo- relied for years on expatriate laborand gies in recent years. In 1985,a U.S. study temporary consultants, are now short of found that in the past decade people skilled in specialized fields. the effi- Many ciency of new refrigerators increased52 of the best-trained people haveleft for percent, while that of room air condi- better-paying jobs in the privatesector tionersincreased or overseas.19 76 percent. Even greater improvements have occurred in Selectively trimming construction Japan,wherecompaniesdeveloped

104 (88) State ohe WorldI987 more efficient appliances more rapidly tage given the improved efficiency of than did their American counterparts.20 newer appliances. New Japanese and European fluores- In some industries, the manufacturing cent lights use one fourth as much power process itself is outmoded and much as the incandescents now in use. Electric moreenergy-intensivethannewer motors, the largest user of electricity in processes.Inaddition,inadequate most industries, have been improved. equipment maintenance can lower effi- For example, adjustable speed drives ciency.22 Using electricity more effi- can lower the power use of electric mo- ciently would lower production costs tors by 20 to 30 percent. Newly devel- and the price of goods, making Third oped aluminum smelters reduce the World exports more competitive. electricity required in this power-inten- Without such gains. Brazilian plan- sive process by 24 percent, and alumi- ners project that the country's generat- num recycling can lessen power needs ing capacity will have to grow 150 per- by 95 percent.21 cent in the next 15 years, at a cost of over Several recent studies demonstrate a $130 billion. Of the 66,000 megawatts of similar potential to improve electrical additional power they expect to need, efficiency in developing countries where only about 34,000 megawatts is cur- industry, agriculture, and commercial rently planned. A 1986 study concluded buildings are the main users of electric- that projected electricity consumption ity. In many cases, they use more elec- just in selected major power uses in Bra- tricity than a comparable industrial- zil could be cut 30 percent by the year country facility does. The equipment 2000 if a range of cost-effective effi- used generally was designed years ear- ciency measures were adopted. (See lier in another country, a clear disadvan- Table 5-3.) The $10 billion needed to Table 5-3. Brazil; Potential Electricity Sangs in Selected End-Uses' by the Year 2000 Savings Potenuai Current Electricity Use Forecast Amount Share (tera a -hours) (percent) Industrial Motors 177.3 35.5 20

Domestic Refrigerators 28.3 14.8 52

Domestic Lighting 17.7 8.8 50

Commercial Motors 29.7 5.9 20

Com ercia! Lighting 25.8 15.5 60

Street Lighting 17.9 7.2 40

Total 296.7 87.7 30 'Theseaccount for about twothirds of total electricity use in Brazil. These projectedsavingsinclude only efficiency improvements that are economically justifiable based on currently available technologies. souact: Howard Geller et al., "Electricity Conservation Potential in Brazil," AmericanCouncil for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington. D.C., March 1986.

105 Electnfying Third World (89) implement these measures wuld elimi- formed decisions aboutpower usage. nate the need for 22,000 reiegawatts of Campaigns can promote efficiency labels generating capacity that wou-uldcost an on appliances, free energy audits for fac- estimated $44 billion to built:V=1." tories or homes, andeven simple re . The cornerstone ofa progricram to im- minders to turn out lights and maintain prove efficiency is a pricing smr-zystem that appliances. Second, governments reflects the true cost of providtljng can power. initiate mandatory efficiencystandards Ideally, this system shouldc-i-_-_harge the for appliances, homes, and industrial consumer just what the utility-N, mustpay equipment. Third, governments to deliver additional electricity, provid- or utili. ties can directly assist in the financingof ing incentives to use it efficsentatly. Unfor- efficiency investments, using either low. tunately, pricing often becontreaws a politi- interest loans or outrightgrants. Many cal tool, and prices are kepttwzoo low to countries have tried variations encourage adequate conservatt_tion._ on these approaches, and developing nationsno Of course, some sulastdizimogof elec- longer need look to the industrial world tricity pricesisinevitable aandeven to find examples of programs that work. beneficial. Few villagers would=1ever get South Korea has one of the highest electricity if in the first few yNivears they electricity consumption growthrates in were forced to pay what it eost-st topro- the world and severely limited domestic vide power. The problemocce=urs when energy reserves. Not surprisingly, the low, subsidized electricity priiicescon- government has initiated a comprehen. tinue indefinitely. Recently,tra_fany devel- sive efficiency program, starting with oping countries have bitten timbe a bullet 1980 "Law Governing Rationalizationin and raised prices to more realist .7.ticlevels. the Use of Energy.- It regulates Some now have "time-of-use" energy rates for efficiency of new buildings, requires effi- industry to discourage power uftlse during ciency labels on new householdappli. peak demand periods. I3ut poiediticshas ances, and established a national energy slowed the move to price reform-Aland fur- conservation center to prc vide technical ther changes are needed.24 support and training. Financial incen. Other obstacles block theinns-tore effi- tives for energy conservation include cient use of electricity. Inmar=rty coun- in. tries the government come tax deductions, reduced tariffson guaransnatees the energy-saving equipment,a one-year de. purchase of manufactured goo-dadsat a preciation allowance for energy-saving cost-plus price. Improved efficies-ency and investments, and subsidized loanpro- the resulting cost-saving donczgot there- grams for conservation investments in fore increase a company's profit margin. industrial plants and buildings." Even where more efficient techminologies are clearly economical based ori_mcurrent electricity prices, consumers oftifienpur- Developing nations no longer need chase a less efficient applianc.=e.Poor people who have virtually no disposable look to the industrial worldto find income cannot afford to buya slightly examples of programs that work. more expensive, albeit more emfficient, device even if the investmentwor=nild pay for itself in less than three yeare_-s. Confrontedwith A broad range of programs theprospectof c=an help power shortages, the South Koreangov- overcome these barriers. The sztimplest ernment has simply curtailed some are educational campaigns to encb-courage power uses. For example, it has banned industries and consumers to rrwnake in- the use of air conditioners,except for a 106 (go) State of the orid-1 40-day period in the iirnmer, and pro- It is too early to assess the impact of hibited the use of elvators in the first energy-efficiency programs aimedat three floors of buildinws. Saving electric- consumers and local industry. Data col- ity is considered a naizxional priority, be- lection is often inadequate and sorting cause the nation's air---bitious economic out the relative importance of different plans depend on maia=rstaining competi- measures is difficult. Nonetheless, many tive electricity prices.6 of these programs will undoubtedly Brazil, the Philippin_xes, and Singapore yield substantial benefits. are among the other developing coun- Since efficiency investments can in tries that have made i'lergy efficiency A effect provide additional services in the national priority. Anusong Brazil's pro- same way that power plants do, utilities grams are an energy labeling program themselves should invest in efficiency for refrigerators and arein electricity price whenever it is less expensive than new system that penalizes = heavy consumers. generating options. Utilities can invest In the Philippines, th National Bureau in efficiency improvements in their own of Energy Utilization provides free en- generating and distribution systems and ergy audits to large fctories and com- intheelectricity using technologies mercial buildings, arn=1 efficiency labels owned by industries and consumers. are required on air ca.mnditioners. In ad- If efficiency and production programs dition, a U.S.-suppored pilot program are kept separate, a utility could be assists in the financing7of energy conser- building a power plant that costs $2,000 vation. Singapore intmooduced a financial per kilowatt while the energy ministry is incentives program fcr=,r energy-efficient passing up efficiency investments that buildings in 1979." cost $500 per kilowatt. National utilitier, One problem many--. countries face is have access to relatively low-interest how to encourage thft-e manufacture of funds; rechanneling 10-15 percent of more-efficient equiprrx-sent. Companies, their construction budgets to efficiency perceiving that consunumers care little programs could yield enormous returns. about efficiency, neglct potential inno- Consumers would be better served if vations. In some devloping countries, electricutilities were gradually con- firms manufacture efFILEcient equipment verted into energy service companies for export while sellingtg less efficient de- that would provide efficiency as well as vices domestically. EIIIMciency standards new power suppliesusing the same are probably needed i=in most countries economic criteria.28 and can be met by doinestic research or Only in the industrial world have utili- byobtaining foreimtechnologies ties begun to invest in improved end-use through manufacuirirtmg licenses. Brazil efficiency. The Pacific Gas and Electric now has a program to .upport the devel- Company (PG&E) in northern Califor- opment of more-efficziktent refrigerators, nia, for example, has a peak demand of lighting systems, heatot pumps, and air 13,000 megawatts, more than that of all conditioners. but five developing nations. PG&E spon- Internationallycotified appliance- sors extensive energy audits, offers zero testing programs woti_uld be a big help. interest loans for home weatherization, With the internationaLi marketing of ap- and has rebate incentives for the pur- pliances growing racrei=idly and several chase of energy-saving devices. Com- countries already hav-G-ing incompatible pany economists calculate that the $80 standards, future ina-iovations may be million spent in 1983 resulted in a sav- hampered without scz=me standardiza- ings of 240 megawatts. The savings cost tion. of $350 per kilowatt contrasts sharply

1 0 E'iectrzfying the Third World (91) with the M760 Iper kilowattcost of tution, for instance, includesa guarantee flatly recerrxatly completdgener- that all villages will eventuallyget elec- atio 2, 1 00-inegawatu Diablo tricky. In most developing countries Cajin nuclear fa.sci1ity.29 there is a gap between rhetorical InIht Third 1Keoricl, support Cit Sc Paulo for rural electrification and theminimal latcrgest...-is ortie, of the funds devoted to its achievement.Fewer few lathes to acIa4=fipta nodest package than 10 percent of the Third World's enerpetficiericrry progms.It is col- electricity investments go to ruralareas, lectihigdala on the t"..end-usesof a-lectricity and in many countries that investmentis and is hionstrAirting 4tid mc:-"nitoring below 5 percent.si the lig of enearEwy-efficient The extent of electrification varies equiPotnt. The Ptimblic Utiiities Moard of widely in different countries. (SeeTable sinopott previder=senergy at_xdits for 5--4.) Overall, just I out of 20 rural some ofits custot ts-tters. Afri- In th.- Indian cans has power. In Latin America,over state diarnatakA, the sate electricity one third of those in rural areas lack bowl ha set upor-131"elecirkity queue- that giyo efficient x companies priority Table 5-4. Extent of Electrification in acee5 4 to the state's s poN.Nrer sup- Selected Developing Countries, 1982 Share of Total Share of Population Population with LJ.c1RlFYING RLITZL FiREAS Country in Rural Areas Electricity Itird World elec tt=ricityprogrrns are (percen largelràted to wprovidingpinpwer for Taiwan 29 99 citiesand industriries. Altliouhtwo Singapore 0 99 thirds dpeople in tl-Ehe developimgworld South Korea 43 95 in rnal areas, rid=soliticalpowr flows Mexico 30 81 to the diks, and eL-T..lectricpowr flows with it. Overall, feviwer thavone chirdof Costa Rica 52 80 the peopkia the rurz-ral ThirdWcpx-ldnow China 79 60 have aalt to electixrieity. Nonetheless, Brazil 32 56 natal eindkation irktas beam integral Colombia 33 54 to the derelopment x procea ant.c1 each yor intlons more rwz:eOple are pr-davided Philippines 63 52 with Octricity.Urriafortuviely,. many Senegal 58 36 Indonesia prograes are uraszintderfunded, mis- 78 16 directedor poorly nzt=ntanaged.Arz.c1rural India 77 14 lectriholion is oftri prouteaas an end in iA rather than asa rnans of Kenya 84 roachirpore basic goals. Nepal 94 5 In the pat two clto.cades,devloping Bangladesh 85 4 countries have given sm increased Ez:Driority Niger 84 3 to owl ekdrificationsmt, whichisvied as SOURCES: Population ReferenceBureau, 1985 a way of unifyingc001711111trieS diiTerent World Population Data Wel (Washington,D,C.; hnic wmuni ties, tirzherehy tons.olidat- 1985); World Rank, "1982 Power/EnergyData Sheets for 104 Developing Countries." Washing., iPg politialpower. Oz.zangladesh's onsti- ton, D.C., juiy 1985, 108 (92) Slate athe World-1987 electricity. Several Asian countries have Table 5-5. Electricity Uses in Homes in made great strides in the past 15 years. Rural Areas of Costa Rica and Colombia Virtually all of Taiwan has electricity, That Have Electricity' and in India 350,000 villages out of more than 600,000 are now connected Appliance Costa RicaColombia to an electricity grid. (Even in "elec- (percent of homes) trified" villages, however, often half or Lights 100 95 more of the houses lack power.)32 Iron 57 73 China has brought power to 500,000 Television 54 39 of its 710,000 villages, mostly in the past two decadea: the amount of electricity Radio 52 79 available to rural areas has increased Refrigerator 42 19 tenfold since 1965. Elsewhere in Asia, Blender 39 32 progress has been slower. Not even 5 Washing machine 31 percent of Nepal's rural population has Electric stove 21 91 electricity, and in Bangladesh, fewer Sewing machine 3 26 than 2,000 of 65,000 villages are elec- Fan 7 trified,notwithstanding the constitu- tional guarantee." 'Based on household surveys in the early eight- ies, On the rich agricultural plains of the souucEs: Randy Girer, -Rural Electrification in Far East, rural electrification is easier to Costa Rica: Membership Participation and Distri- justify than in Africa's arid Sahel, where bution of Benefits,'Masters Thesis, Graduate both the and income Program in Energy, Management and Policy. Uni- levels are far lower. Isolated mountain versity of Pennsylvania, 1986; Eduardo Velez, "Rural Electrification in Colombia,- Resources for communities, such as those in Nepal or the Future, Washington, D.C., March 1983. Bolivia, are also hard to reach with elec- tricity because population density is low Women often benefit more from elec- and the terrain makes the installation of tricity than men do, since it helps ease power lines difficult. Many developing household chores, while fans and radios countries face an almost impossible en- make leisure time more pleasant. Many gineering and financial task in extending women report that they have had more power grids into all parts of the nation. free time since electricity became avail- Even at their best, Third World rural able. Frequently, electric pumps provide electric systems rarely match the reliabil- a reliable, clean supply of water from a ity taken for granted in industrial coun- tries. People often go for days without village well for the first time, which power, waiting for a spare transformer makes life easier and improves health. to be carried in over rutted roads or for Several studies have found that elec- repairs to be made to storm-damaged tricity promotes literacy by allowing chil- lines. Nonetheless, electricity can bring dren to study in the evening. In rural sweeping changes to the lives of rural India,television-viewing has become people. Many look back on the arrival of widespread, thanks both to electricity electricity as a turning point in village and a new satellite that transmits na- life. Light bulbs are usually the first pur- tional programming into remote areas. chase, a big improvement over gas or The government broadcasts educational kerosene lamps. Electric irons are also programs, including lessons in preven- popular, as are radios, televisions, and tive health care and new farming tech- electric fans; most people, however, do niques." not have appliances such as refrigerators Like many technologies, rural elec- or stoves.34 (See Table 5-5.) trificationcan perpetuateinequality, 109 Elechifying the ThirdWorld (93) particularly in poor villages where only gies to improve their effectivenessare wealthy households can affordpower. In developed. However, some applications the Philippines, for example, newly elec- of electricity have no good substitute. trified villages generally have a hookup These include high-quality lighting,re- charge of $30-40, which is beyond the frigeration, television, computers, and means of many poor families. A survey in telecommunications. Comprehensive India found that it took onaverage 10 rural energy planning is neededto intro- years after initial electrification before duce a range of appropriate technolo- poor families could afford to connect to gies. Although electricitycan be benefi- the system. In Costa Rica, although pref- cial, it should not get exclusive priority. erential hookup rates and subsidized The real value of electricity is in stimu- prices have allowed most homes to ob- lating economic development. Oneway tain power, poor households stilluse this can happen is through the creation muchlesselectricitythanwealthy of rural industries. So far the record isat households do. Special efforts must be best mixed. Where economic expansion made if the benefits of electricityare to has already begun and marketsare de- be widely shared.36 veloping for various products, rural in- In most villages, even well-designed dustries have followed electrification. electrificationprograms can address Costa Rica has seen some use of electric- only part of the energy problem. The ity in sawmills, cement factories, and main use of energy in ruralareas is for tourist hotels, but electrification hasnot cooking, a task that often is done with been a major boost to rural industry. In wood, crop residues, or dung. These most countries, development planners biomass sources provide an estimated find electricity is not enough. Rural in- 48 percent of all the energy used in dustries require a variety of other infra- the Third World, and in many rural structure investments in roads, training, households they supply over 90 percent. and financial ciAit.38 Electricity is far too expensive to be used Electricity can also raise agricultural for cooking, even in most cities. (A sim- productivity, but so far farmuse of ple hot plate uses more than 500 watts of power is mainly limited to large planta- power, or 33 times as much as the 15- tions owned by the wealthy. Electricity watt light bulbs that are the main source has few affordable useson MOSE small of light in many village homes)" farms. In Costa Rica, electricity is rarely Otherinitiativesmust accompany used in the production of coffee,sugar, electrification programs in order to ad- or vegetables, but it has helped raise the dress the broad range of ruralenergy output of poultry and dairy farms. In problems. Promising approaches that Bolivia, planners had hoped that elec- have been tested successfully insome tricity would encourage irrigation, but countries include community tree plant- the harsh climate, salty soils, and lackof ing programs, more efficient cookstoves, financial support cut these plans short. biogasdigesters(toturnbiological Rural electrification in India and Pakis- wastes into flammable methane gas), tan is largely directed to developing irri- and solar ovens. gation in semiarid parts of thecountry. Other important rural energy uses in- This has been successful, though it has clude water pumping, grain grinding, required heavy subsidies. One study and other mechanical processes. These found that Indian farmers can were only pay- be performedwithelectrically ing between 7 and 10 percent of theac- driven motors, but they t:an also bepow- tual cost of providing them with electric- ered by biomass energyor by human or ity.39 animal power, particularly if technolo- Given the many needs of rural people, 11 0 (94) State of the World-1987 investment priorities must be balanced. utilities to support income-generating Electricity can help meet basic needs, industries.'" but it may not be the fastest or most Costa Rican cooperatives that were cost-effective way to do so in sparsely started with U.S. assistance in the sixties populated areas or regions with moun- provide electricity to about half the fami- tainous terrain. As a Papua New Guinea lies in their areas, and have helped stim- Energy White Paper published in 1979 ulate economic growth. In the Philip- said, "it is clear that investment in elec- pines, rural electric cooperatives have trification is investment foregone in such provided power to over 18,000 villages areas as improved roads, , in just 12 years. And many of them pro- schooling, and health services."40 vide much more than electricity: They have become involved in charcoal pro- duction, school lighting, school water- In the Philippines, nual electric works, and vegetable gardening. Here, cooperatives have provided power as elsewhere, the effectiveness of electric to over 18,000 villages in just 12 cooperatives depends on the quality of local leadership and the ability to insu- years. late them from day-to-day political ma- neuvering. Among the countries now looking seriously at the potential to ex- Rural electrificationis not a magic pand cooperative-based electrification cure for the ills of village life. Rather, i: are Bangladesh. India, and indonesia.42 is one tool that is sometimes appropri- Such approaches can help decentral- ate. Since village conditions vary greatly, ize the decision-making process and careful studies should be done before bring local people into energy and de- choosing a package of development velopment planning. Indeed, rural elec- tools. Health care and simple farming trification outside the context of an over- technologies may deserve priority. Elec- all development strategy is bound to fail. trification should be linked to other en- Broadly based cooperatives that can also e gy and development programs, such address the cooking fuel issuethe cen- as the introduction of efficient cook- tral energy problem in most rural areas stoves. would be even more effective. Co-ops One way to make rural electrification could be used to promote tree planting part of a comprehensive development program is through the creation of de- programs, more efficientcookstoves, centralized power agencies. One ap- and other development efforts. proach that has proved successful is elec- tric cooperativeslocal agencies, owned by the members and managed by local staffs but often supported by a national electrification agency. Most co-ops do STRENGTH THROUGH not generate their own power but pur- DIVERSITY chase it from the national utility. Electric cooperatives can play a role in encourag- Rural electrification to date is concen- ing productive uses of electricity by pro- trated in areas where grid extension is viding low-interest loans and technical relatively easy and economicalheavily extension services for everything from populated agricultural plains and near small lumber mills to irrigation systems. major urban and industrial centers. Left And they are more likely than national behind are remote, forested, and moun-

111 Electrifying ihe Third World (95) tainous regions where populationsare relativelyinexpensivetoinstallbut sparse and cash incomes are limited. Ex- costly to fuel. Total diesel generation amples include much of the Andesre- costs typically range from 15-500 per gion of South America; most of Central kilowatt-hour, compared withan aver- America; large sections of India, In- age cost of grid electricity in the Third donesia, and Pakistan; and virtually all of World of about 7. Diesel generators Afghanistan, Bhutan, Burma, Laos, and needfrequent maintenance;neglect Nepal. commonly leads to breakdowns and In addition, many island communities time-consuming repairs. Often a dam- will never bc reached by grid electricity. aged generator must be fixed ina distant The Philippines, for example, consists of town, so a village desiring reliable power over 7,000 islands, and even when the service has to have a spare ready.'" national grid is fully completed,many Today, however, a much widerarray villages will not be connected. Thesame of small-power optionsisavailable, is true in Indonesia, large stretches of many of them not requiring fossil fuels. the South Pacific, and the Caribbean. Small hydropower is the most mature al- Full rural electrification, if that is the ternative. Usually classifiedas less than goal, can never be accomplished bycen- 15 megawatts in capacity, small hydro's tral grids alone. advantage is that the technology is well The next frontier in rural electrifica- developed and economical. A study for tion is the use of decentralized technolo- the U.S. Agency for International Devel- gies that rely on renewableresources. opment found that 10,000 megawatts of Although these are particularly impor- non-grid-connected small hydropro- tant in more remote areas, they are also jects had been constructed in the Third likely to prove useful for small towns, World by 1983, and projected that the industries, and even the centralpower capacity of stand-alone small hydrosys- grids of developing countries. Most tems will reach 29,000 megawatts in Third World power systems are rela- 1991. The worldwide potential is proba- tively small and so can more easilyac- bly well over 100,000 megawatts. In commodate small generators than they many countries the potential exceeds can the large coal and nuclear units typi- total installed power capacity.44 (See cal in industrial countries. Table 5-6.) Another advantage of small power Since 1980, substantial efforts have projects is that they can be built quickly. been made to develop new approaches At a time when future energy trends and to small hydropower development based economicconditionsareuncertain, on local skills and materials. Many mi- small projects can be planned to match cro-hydro projects under 100 kilowatts actual needs rather than tenuous fore- in capacity are run-of-the-riversystems casts.Interestcostsandforeign- that require less construction anduse lo- exchange requirements are in turnre- cally made equipment. As small hydro duced. projectsmultiply,entrepreneursin An estimated 580 megawatts of stand- India, Nepal, and Pakistan have started alone diesel systems are now inuse in manufacturing pipes, turbines,genera- the Third World. Diesel generators of tors, and load controllers. Similar enter- 10 kilowatts or less are used topower prises have begun to appear in Africa individua l! homes and communications and Latin America. Such innovations systems, while larger generators of sev- have reduced costs from the $3,000 eral hundred kilowatts or morecan run 6,000 per kilowatt typical of many heavily a whole village. Diesel generators are engineered systems to $1,000-2,000.45

11 2 (96) Slate of the Wor1d-1987 Table Deeenitalized Hydropower Potential in Selected Countries Small Hydro Small Hydro 1982 installed Potential as Share Country Potential Power Capacity' of 1982 Capacity (megawatts) (percent) Peru 12,000 3,300 364 India 10,000 35,400 28 Philippines 4,000 4,800 83 Costa Rica 2,700 650 415 Thailand 1,100 4,630 24

Indonesia 1,000 5,170 19 Guatemala 1,000 530 9 Nepal 800 138 580 Guinea 560 102 549 Bolivia 500 500 100

Pakisum 300 4,100 7 Madagascar 270 190 142 Sri Lanka 200 500 40 Liberia 150 360 42 Jamaica 100 680 15 !Reflects country's total generating capacity, not just small hydropower. SOURCE: Agency for International Development, Derentra/izedHydropower in AIM D glop/nen! Assistmwe Program(Washington, D C.: 1986). The United Mission to NepH , in- massive rural electrification effort ever digenous, church-supported organiza- attempted in the developing world." tion, has helped establish a private small About 40 percent of China's rural town- hydro industry that has instaPed 65 wa- ships and one third of its 2,200 counties ter-powered mills since the mid-seven- now get most of their power from small ties, for grinding grain and sawing logs hydro dams.47 in areas more than a day's walk from the Although overall plans are developed nearest road. Most of the components by China's leadership and some projects aremanufacturedlocally.Although get national subsidies, local villages and these projects usually involve mechani- counties are in charge of much of the cal mills, many of the lessons can be ap- planning, execution, and financing of plied to water-powered electricity gener- the country's small hydro projects. Many ators. Similar efforts have succeeded on small hydro projects started as autono- a smaller scale in India, Pakistan, Zaire, mous systems, but were later linked to- and elsewhere.46 gether and connected to larger central In China, some 76,000 small hydro- grids. power plants supply 9,500 megawatts of Efforts are also under way to develop power, and the country plans to more small-scale power systems using biomass than double capacity in the next 13 energy sources such as wood and agri- years. These plants are the foundation of cultural wastes. The advantage of bio- what the World Bank terms -the most mass is that the fuels can be stored for

113 Elec. In:lying Third World (97) use when needed. Despite the shortag: lerns appear to be resolvable, andpro- of fuelwood in many regions,some rural jections show that the dendrothermal areas have ample supplies of biomass, plants can produce power for less than such as rice hulls or ci.,:cnut shells. In the average cost of electricity in the addition, crop or forest plantationscan country. Too often, planners undertake be established to grow biomass specifi- innovative projects like thisone but fail cally for use in power generation. to allow for the start-up problems that Among the technologies used, the are inevitable with first-time projects." simplest is direct combustion of bio- is another source ofen- mass, using the heat to run a reciprocat- ergy with considerable potential in some ing steam engine or a steam turbine, ei- developing countries. Used widely by ther of which can be connectedto a American midwestern farmers in the generator. Another approach is to gasify twenties,beforeruralelectrification, the biomass, using the gas to run a diesel wind generators are proving effective in engine or gas turbine. The village of similar settings in the Third World. The Picon in Indonesia has installed two 40- most extensive effort so far is on the re- kilowatt wood gasifiers, for example, mote windswept plains of Inner Mon- using the electricity for pumped irriga- golia, where nomadic herdersuse 2,000 tion, food processing, and woodwork- small wind turbines for lighting, running ing. Finally, some biomass sourcescan televisions,electrifying corralfences, be converted to liquid fuels suchas and projecting movies. A portable wind ethanol or fuel oil. In the Philippines, turbine has been designed so that the some small generators are run on coco- nomads can carry their powersource diesel, a mixture of coconut oil and die- with them. Three Chinese factoriesare sel fue1.48 now producing several thousand wind The Philippines is also the site of t..e generators each year for use in Xizang only large-scale effort to supply a central (Tibet), Xinjiang (Sinkiang), and other power grid with electricity from wood- remote areas.51 fired plants. The National Electrification Grid-connected collections of wind Administration, with the assistance of generators known as wind farms show foreign lending agencies, started a -den- promise as well. Wind farmswere first drothermal- program in the late seven- built in California in the early eighties ties to help reduce the country's costly and now supply that state with about dependence on imported oil. Equipment 1,100 megawatts of power. Utility-spon- for 17 power plants was imported from sored studies show that the better wind the United Kingdom and France, and farms can produce power for about 70 fast-growing leucaena plantationswere per kilowatt-hour, which is competitive started. Like many crash projects, the with conventional power sources.52 dendrothermal program ran into trou- Several developing countries arenow ble. Some plantations were startedon studying the potential of wind farms, poor soil and failed, much of the gen- and small projects are being tested in erating equipment required extensive China, India, and Pakistan. European repairs before it would work properly, and American firms have signedagree- and the country's worseningeconomy ments to establish joint manufacturing forced a cutoff of funds for rehabilitating facilities in these countries. Third World the program.49 wind-power development is still atan Only three dendrothermal plantswere early stage, and detailed windassess- working in the Philippines in 1985. This ments and feasibility studies are needed. is unfortunate because most of the prob- But early evidence indicates that wind

114 (98) State o e World-1987 power will soon take its place as a decen- systems can be installed on a very salad tralized power source that is economical scale to provide power for health cen- in many areas." ters, communications, and education in Solar photovoltaic cells are in a sense areas where village-wide electricity will the ultimate decentralized power source not be affordable for years. It is for these because they rely on sunlighta more uses that photovoltaics is growing most widely available resource than wind, bio- rapidly. The industry is also beginning mass, or falling water. Moreover, solar to step up marketing and production of celis directly produce electricity, requir- solar cells in developing countries. This ing no separate generators. If electricity together with the fact that the cost of isneeded after dark orincloudy photovoltaics is projected to decline sig- weather, however, storage batteries or a nificantly in the next decadewill make backup generator must be added, which solar electricity the power of choice for can double the cost. But with or without a growing number of tasks in rural areas. storage, photovoltaics provide impor- It may soon be economical to electrify tant amenities to villages that cannot whole villages using photovoltaics or hy- afford the alternatives. brid photovoltaic-diesel systems. The Philippines provides one of the best examples of successful electricity It may soon be economical to elec- diversification. The country has reduced fy whole villages using photovol- the oil share of electricity generation from 78 percent in 1978 to 46 percent in taics or hybrid photovoltaic-diesel 1984 through the development of hydro systems. and geothermal resources. By 1984, the Philippines had 1,654 megawatts of hy- dropower capacity in place and 894 Since 1980, the use of photovoltaic megawatts of geothermal capacity, out systems has grown rapidly in the Third of a total of 5,196 megawatts. An addi- Worldmainly for communications sys- tional 604 megawatts of hi, dro dams, tems, lighting, and water pumping. Al- 110 megawatts of geothermal, and 110 though these systems still cost about megawatts of coal are being developed. $10,000 per kilowatt, for many rural Several small power plants that burn areas that are not connected to a grid, wood and coconut shells are operating solar cells are already less expensive or are under construction." than the alternatives, including diesel It is notable that throughout the Third systems." World little of the development of the One of the largest village photovoltaic smaller decentralized power systems is programs is in French Polynesia, where the work of national utilities. They are 2,000 solar electric systems have been simply not accustomed to executing installed on 18 islands since 1982. In- small projects at the local level. This cluded in the program are 1,000 homes, opens a wider issue: Should the private 300 freezers, five hospitals, and dozens sector be brought into the power gener- of radio beacons, streetlights, and ationbusiness?Thisconceptruns pumps. The program uses French tech- against the grain of power-planning over nology andispartlysubsidized by the past few decades, which has been French foreign aid, but less subsidy is characterized by public appropriation of needed than for a comparably sized die- private power systems. Nonetheless, it sel system.55 may now make sense to create competi- An advantage of photovoltaics is that tive power systems in which there is

11 5 Electrifying the Third World (99) some central planning and control, but similar vein, the Chinese in which private companies government is are encour- encouraging local governments andin- aged to bring innovaAion and efficiency dustrial enterprisf:sto pool their re- to the system. sources to build power plants indepen- Recent initiatives in openingup the dently from the national Ministry electricity system to competition have of Water ReNources and ElectricPower." occurred where power expansion has Neither acompletely government- run into problemssuch as Colombia dominated power systemnor an entirely and Turkey. In Pakistan, the Water and deregulated private approachcan cap- Power Development Authorityis already ture the ideal mix of economic efficiency short of capacity by 1,200 megawatts, and reliable service. However,opening and forced blackoutsare common. Pri- the power system to limited privatecom- vate companies, probably in partnership petition is a way to both bring with foreign corporations, financial may be of- resources to electricity projects andspur fered contracts to build andoperate the development of innovative power plants and sell the electricity to technolo- gies. Countries with differentpolitical the national utility at a fixed price. The systems and power industries foreign partners rvould help raise seem to be the moving insimilar directions,which foreign exchange needed and couldown makes the new developments equity in the project.57 particu- larly noteworthy. The end ofthe era of Such efforts are loosely modeledon exclusive government the Public Utility Regulatory Policies power monopo- Act lies will almost certainlyopen oppor- passed in the United States in 1978. tunities to improve the reliablity Under the act, U.S. utilities and are required cost-effectiveness of electricitysystems. to purchase power from independent Nosimple producers at the long-run marginal prescriptionscanbe cost handed out for the Third World'selec- of generation. This, together withthe tricity problems. The needs availability of tax credits, has resulted are vast and in the available resources small.New initia- over 30,000 megawatts of proposed tives must be carefully designed.Alter- small power projects, half of which are ing the status quo is always difficult,par- fossil-fuel-fired cogeneration (combined ticularly if it involves sucha large and production of heat and power) and the politically powerful sector of society. rest a diverse mix of wind power, hydro- The sheer pace of ongoing construction power, wood-fired plants, waste-fired also undermines attemptsto change. plants, and solar power projects. In Cali- But most developing countriessimply fornia, enough powercontracts have cannot afford to neglect fundamental been signed to providemore than one problems any longer. For third of the state's electricity.58 better or worse, electric power is a large andcru- The state of Gujarat may becomethe cial sector of most Third World California of India. The State Electricity econo- mies, and if its future growth ismis- Board offered in 1985to pay 100 per directedorpoorly kilowatt-hour for privately generated managed,the development process itself couldbe wind power. It is too earlyto know the jeopardized. outcome of this offer or whether it will Increased efficiency, more attention be extended, but Gujarat already has to the the special energy needs of ruralvillag- Third World's first operating windfarm, ers, and the development of decentral- and the state government has success- ized power technologiescan together fully supported the developmentof contribute significantlyto the viability other renewable energy sources. In a and effectiveness of Third Worldpower

116 (zoo) State of the orld1 987 systems. The most fundamental cnange accelerating the pace of power system needed is a philosophical one, however, expansion and more on ensuring that Electricity is not an end in itself but part electricity effectively promotes develop- of a larger package of initiatives for rural ment. areas. Less effort should be placed on

1 7 Realizing ecycling's Potential Cynthia Pollock

Residents of New York City collectively Most of the products availableto con- discard 24,000 tons of materialseach sumers are intended for a one-night day. The amalgam, considered trashby stand. They are purchased, consumed, most of its contributors, contains valu- and discarded with little regardfor their able metals, reusable glass containers, remaining value. Theenergy, materials, recyclable paper and , andfood and environmental lossesassociated wastes high in nutrient value. It alsocon- with this consumption tains ever greater amounts of hazardous pattern are stag- gering, David Morris of theWashington- wastesmercury from batteries, cad- based Institute for Local SelfReliance mium from fluorescent lights, and toxic puts it well: -A city the size of San Fran- &mica'sfromcleaningsolvents, cisco disposes of more aluminum paints, and wood preservatives.' than is produced by a small bauxite mine,more New Yorkers hold the world record copper than a medium copper mine and for producing the most garbageper more paper than a good sized timber capita, although growing volumes ofre- stand. San Francisco isa mine. The fuse as well as a scarcity of disposalsites question is how to mine it plague cities everywhere. Municipal most effec- gov- tively and how to get the maximumvalue ernments worldwide are strugglingto from the collected materials,"2 find the best methods for managing their Recycling offers communitiesevery- residents' wastes. Particularly in indus- where the opportunity trial countries, the premium to trim their now placed waste disposal needs, and therebyre- on space and environmental quality is duce disposal costs, while simultane- restricting the use of traditional landfills. ously combating global environmental Increasingly, refuse is either hauled long problems.Recyclingmetals, distances to a sanitary landfill, burned in paper, glass, , and organicwastes would incinerators designed torecover energy, lessenthe demand forenergy and or separated in order to retrieve valu- materials. Producing aluminum able materials for recycling. from scrap instead of bauxite cutsenergy 118 ( lo2) State of theorld-1987 usage and air pollution by 95 percent. and dirty. On the contrary, most materi- Making paper from discards instead of als in use today are chosen for their du- virgin timber not only saves valuable for- rability. One wearing does not make a ests, it reduces the energy used per ton rag, nor does one trip through the type- by up to three quarters and requires less writer or the bottling plant render paper than half as much water,3 And since cut- or glass unusable. ting fossil fuel consumption is one of the An inventory of the world's discards most effective actions people can take to would reveal metal wastes more valuable slow the buildup of carbon dioxide that than the richestores, paper wastes is warming the earth's atmosphere (see representing millions of hectares of for- Chapter 9), recycling must be part of the ests, and plastics wastes incorporating effort to delay climate change. highlyrefinedpetrochemicals. That Managing solid waste is a global prob- these products rich in raw materials and lem: Refuse is produced throughout the concentrated energy are frequently con- world. But it is also a local problem in sidered worthless is indicative of a dis- that there is no such thing as a global torted economic system. We are literally waste stream. The cumulative waste throwing away our future. management decisions made by local and national governments affect global energy balances, the rate at which the atmosphere warms, and the amount of pollution emitted into the environment. THE GARBAGE GLUT They also affect international trade flows and the accumulation of debt. Individu- Growing populations, rising incomes, als are not powerless in the face of these and changing consumption patterns problems that sometimes seem too ab- combine to complicate the waste man- stract or remote for constructive action. agement problem. Total garbage gener- The degree to which people and nations ation expands as a city swells in size, as act together to conserve raw materials consumers earning more money in- and energy resources can slow the rate at crease their consumption of food, bever- which the global ecosystem is altered. ages, and so-called durable goods, and as strengthening demands for greater convenience encourage the marketing of Americans spent more for food single-serving and more heavily pack- aged products. In most areas of the packaging in 1986 than farmers re- world, the ability to manage waste effec- ceived in income. tively lags far behind its rate of growth. Before the days of densely populated urban areas, waste disposal was eased by In many areas of the world, recycling the absorptive capacity of the surround- has been hampered by a prejudice ing land and water. Farm communities against used, or postconsumer. materi- that transferred their food from field to als and the products that incorporate tablebypassing the processor, pack- them. Currency is not considered worth- ager, advertiser, and grocercreated lit- less after it has been exchanged, but be- tle waste. Vegetable peelings and the cause refuse collection began as a mea- like were either fed to the animals or sure to protect health, many people tossed on a compost heap to fertilize the mistakenly believe that materials that next crop. Moving off the land brings an have already been used are dangerous entirelynewconsumptionpattern.

119 Realizing Recling's Potenlia (103) Homegrown food is traded for products United States pay3 for packaging. wrapped, sealed, and packaged for Pre- con- liminary figures released bythe U.S. De- venience. partment of Agriculture indicate that Industrial societies with smaller farm- Americans spent more for foodpackag- ing populations and higherincomes pro- ing in 1986 than farmersreceived in in- duce considerablymore waste per per- come. The packaging bill for theyear !on than developing countries do. New was expected to total $28 billion.4 Yorkers, for example, throwout nine As more women enter theworkforce, times their weight in rubbisheach year, demand for convenienceproducts con- while residents of Manila throwaway 2.5 tinues to grow. Frozen, canned,and times their weight in rubbish. (SeeTable vacuum-packed food packagesare fre- 6-1.) Part of thereason is that most of quently the eat-at-home substitutefor the food brought into New YorkCity is can-yout meals. Such prepared dishesdo shipped hundreds or thousandsof kilo- cut down on household organicwastes, meters, and the packaging usedto keep but the food trimmings havesimply been products fresh and attractive isseveral disposed of elsewhere.Inabsolute times greater than theamounts used at terms, the waste stream is enlargedby farmers' markets. Nearly $1out of every the packaging and materialsused in the $10 spent for food and beveragesin the advertising campaign. Transportationto processors and packagers increasesthe Table 6.1. Refuse Generation Ratesin energy intensity of the product.Con- Selected Cities, Circa 1980 sumer awareness of the effects ofpur- chasing decisions onwaste volumes and Per Capita disposal needs is only slowlyemerging. Waste In industrial countries, packagingcon- City Generation Rate tributes about 30percent of the weight (kilograms per day) and 50 percent of thevolume of house- hold waste. Food and yardwastes ac- Industrial Cities count for most of the remainder. Paper New York, United 1.80 States constitutes by far the largest shareof Singapore packaging, followed by glass,metals, 0,87 and plastics. Every Am zricandiscards al- Hong Kong 0,85 most 300 kilograms of packagingeach Hamburg, West 0.85 year. The plastics fraction, starting from Germany a negligible base in the sixties, has Rome, Italy 0.69 grown the fastest. Soft drinks, vegetable oils, cleaning products, and Low-Income Cities toiletries are all available in plasticcontainers.5 Lahore, Pakistan 0.60 In fact, it is becoming almost Tunis, Tunisia impossi- 0.56 ble to buy some of theseitems in tradi- Bandung, Indonesia 0.55 tional glass containers. Thus, Medellin, Colombia not only is 0.54 the quantity of packagingincreasing, the Calcutta, India 0.51 materials used for packaging Karachi, Pakistan are also 0.50 changing. A growing share ofthe waste Manila, Philippines 0.50 stream is composed of containers that Kano, Nigeria 0.46 are not easily reusable or recyclable. SOURCE: Sandra j. Coimreau, Environmental Man- The soft drink industryprovides a agement of Urban Solid Wastes in Developing counInes good example of boththe changing (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1982). packaging mix and theway rising afflu- (104) State of the World-1987 ence and greater demand for conve- combined. Sales have grown at an an- nience products swell household gar- nual rate of almost 5 percent since 1977. bage bins. Until 1975, refillable glass Bottlers of ketchup, canners of soup, bottles dominated international bever- and packagers of ice cream are all adopt- age container markets. Aluminum and ing lightweight, unbreakable, nonbiode- steel cans and throwaway bottles ac- gradable plastic containers. In Canada, counted for the remainder. By 1981, the Japan, and the United Kingdom, beer ratio in the United States had reversed, drinkers may now buy -a six pack in a and most carbonated beverages were bottle." sold in one-way containers.6 Although the layperson tends to think During the same period, soft drink of plastic as a single material having nu- consumption per capita rose 56 percent. merous applications, more than 46 Since then aluminum cans and plastic different polymers are actually in com- bottles have overtaken all forms of glass mon use. A squeezable ketchup bottle, in U.S. markets. By 1985, aluminum cans for example, is made of six layers of plas- and plastic bottles achieved a 69-percent tics, each engineered to do a different market share by volume, while refillable job, such as to give the bottle shape, glass retained only a 16-percent share. strength, flexibility, and impermeabil- Carbonated beverage containersfre- ity. ° quently account for more than 5 percent Combining plastics with other materi- of U.S. household wastes.7 als further expands the variety. A brand- Aluminum, the most abundant metal name photocopier supplier now offers on earth, is never found free in nature. long lasting "plastic paper" to compa- Not until the 1820s did Danish and Ger- nies willing to pay 35v a sheet. And food man scientists learn to refine the metal packagers are experimenting with com- into a valuable product. At $1,200 a kilo- posites of aluminum foil and plastic that gram, aluminum was more precious than are less bulky than rigid packages and gold. Since its first use in a toy rattle for have a longer shelf life.11 Unfortunately, Napoleon's son, the use of aluminum as packaging materials increase in com- has mushroomed. The first 355-milli- plexity, the cost and difficulty of recy- liter, all-aluminum beverage can ap- cling them mounts. And unlike most peared on the market in 1963, and such materials, plastics do not degrade in the containers are today the largest single presence of sunlight or bacteria. use of aluminum, accounting for 22 per- In a growing number of cities, the vol- cent of U.S. shipments. In 1963, 11.5 ume of discarded materials now sur- billion metal beverage cans were used in passes the available managerial and the United States, of which 11.4 billion physical capacities to dispose of them. were made of steel. By 1985, more than Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and 24 other 70 billion beverage cans were used, of large Chinese cities are trying to cope which almost 66 billion-94 percent with garbage piles that increase by 10 were made of aluminum.6 percent each year. Rising living stan- The advent of low-priced petrochemi- dards in the surrounding countryside cals and new technologies ushered in the have prompted farmers to stop accept- age of plastics. Two-liter plastic bottles, ing garbage dumping on their fields. introduced in 1978, now contain 22 per- Farmers who can afford commercial fer- cent of the volume of soft drinks sold in tilizers fear that pollution from con- the U.S. market. More plastics are now tinued dumpiag will degrade their land. produced in the United States than alu- And in Mexico City, most of the 10,000 minum and all other nonferrous metals tons of trash collected daily was, until

121 Rsalizing Recycling's Potential (105) recently,throwninto open dumps, Parisians continued to toss their trash where it nourished huge populations of out the window until the fourteenthcen- flies and rats that swarmed throughpoor tury. Several hundred years later, aspeo- neighborhoods. i r ple thronged to newly industrializingcit- Municipalities in industrial and devel- ies to obtain the first factory jobs, the oping countries alike are watching their garbage crisis multiplied. Citygovern- garbage piles and problems mount. In ments ultimately adopted the responsi- some areas the waste management infra- bility for collecting and disposingof re- structure has become overloaded; in fuse." others, it does not yet exist. Effortsto Once the garbage left the city/ate, it reduce waste volumes andrecover re- was commonly dumped ons .:auered cyclable materials are viable in allre- piles in the surroundingcount! yside. As gions, however. cities grew, the available countryside Less waste means less demand forex- shrank, and the noxious odors andrat pensive garbage-hauling equipment and infestations caused by the dumps be- waste transfer stations, as well as the loss came intolerable.Freestanding niles of habitat for disease-spreading insects gave way to pits dug to confine the and rodents. Greater use of recyclable waste. In densely populatedareas of materials cuts the need for importedre- Europe, even this disposal methodwas sources, reduces energy consumption, soon regarded as requiring too much and curtails water and air pollution. So- space and posing an undue threatto cieties that recycle canmore efficiently groundwater, and a new solutionwas and less expensively allocatescarce en- sought. ergy and materials among growing The 'first systematic incinerationof populations. municipal refuse was tested in Notting- ham, England, in 1874. Burning reduces waste volumes by some 70 to 90 percent, depending on the contents,so waste commissioners on both sides of the At- MANAGING SOLID WASTE lanticheraldedthedevelopment. Densely populated and affluentcities Although even the earliest civilizations soon built experimental incinerators, produced wastes, the refuse problem is but many communities couldnot justify basically an urban blight, associated with the expense. Large capital outlays limited space and dense populations. for in- cinerators only made sense wherecheap, Where people are scattered sparsely and unregulated waste burialsites were waste volumes are low, the environment unavailable. In addition,many cities that can naturally assimilate discards. But did hop on the incinerationbandwagon where large numbers of peoplecongre- soon jumped off when their air quality gate, unorganized waste disposal be- deteriorated. Waste burial continued comes an unsightly health hazard. as the most widelypracticeddisposal About 500 B.C,, Athens issuedthe method." first known edict against throwinggar- Some 90 percent of the refuse in the bage into the streets, and organized the United States is still buried. Butmany first municipal dumps by requiringsca- U.S. landfills are rapidly fillingup, and vengers to dispose of wastes no less than fearsof groundwater contamination one mile from the city walls. Like many make landfills unwelcome neighbors. Greek innovations, the practice of waste From January 1984 until August1985, removal was lost in medieval Europe. Chicago enforced a moratoriumon the

122 (1o6) State of the WorldI987 development of new landfills until better should rise as each new ton of waste is systems for monitoring and controlling deposited."17 leachate and methane gas migration Lack of new landfill space coupled were devised. According to David Morris with growing waste volumes is prompt- and Neil Seidman of the Institute for ing a search for new methods of waste Local Self Reliance, more than half the management.Supportforwaste-to- cities in the United States will exhaust energy plants that burn solid waste to their currentlandfills by1990---just produce either steam or electricityis three years from now." snowballing. After a number of false Disposal space is becoming a coveted starts in the mid-seventies, the technol- and more strictly regulated commodity, ogy has been refined, with the help of and prices are beginning to rise accord- European experience, and is now being ingly. In Minneapolis, Minnesota, the adopted by cities from Alaska to Florida. cost of burying a ton of refuse has risen A 1986 survey by the U.S. Conference from $5 to $30, a sixfold increase in as of Mayors found 62 waste-to-energy many years. By 1990, cities and towns in plants already in operation, 26 under California will pay $1 billion annually to construction, and another 39 in the ad- get rid of their trash. Philadelphia, a vanced stages of planning. Some of metropolitan area of 6 million people, these plants, known as mass burn, are no longer has access to a local landfill fired by unsegregated solid waste that is and has sometimes shipped its waste as simply shoveled into the furnace. Oth- far away as Ohio and sout nern Virginia. ers, known as refuse-derived fuel plants, Since 1980, Philadelphia's disposal costs remove glass and metals and shred the have risen from $20 to $90 per ton. Even remaining solid waste to produce either when cities are able to gain access to a confettilike or pelletized fuel that can new, environmentally sound landfills, be burned in specially designed boilers the sites are usually remote. Disposal or mixed in small proportions with costs increase by 500 to $1 for every mile coal." each ton of garbage is transported." Yet, in many areas landfill fees are still artificially low. Until city managers and More than half the cities in the waste producers are forced to pay the United States will exhaust their higher costs of diminished capacity and current landfills by 1990. stricter closure requirements, they will not actively pursue other strategies Maurice Hinchey, chair of New York's legislative commission on solid waste Waste-to-energy plants appeal to city management, believes that -the most administrators because they require no critical defect in our present waste econ- change in waste collection patterns, their omy is the gross under pricing of our management can be turned over to a pri- disposal capacity. Because landfill vate owner if desired, low-cost financing charges are set so low, private haulers mechanisms are available, and there is a and munk pal waste collection agencies guaranteed market for the energy pro- alike have little incentive to sort and sal- duced. A 1978 U.S. law requires electric vage recyclable materials from the refuse utilities to purchase, at a fair price, elec- or to invest in their own materials recov- tricity offered for sale by private produc- ery system." He reasonsthatsince ers. This institutional arrangement is -there is noexcesscapacity left in the not as readily available to incineration system, the cost of remaining capacity plants elsewhere in the world."

123 Realizing Recycling's Potential (107) Companies that previously supplied these plants produce electricityas a by- equipment to the now lethargic electric product of the combustion. Alarger utility industry are actively promoting fraction generate steam that isconveyed their newly developed incinerators. The through ducts to neighboring industries uniican be sized to fit a community's or residential developments. Since 1960, needs and range in capacity from less the number of incinerators in Japan than 100 tons of garbage per day has up to tripled and the overall capacityhas 3,000 tons. Both the very small andvery swelled 17 times. In the UnitedStates, large incinerator marketsare growing. A only 3 percent of municipalwaste is in- dozen plants with capacities ofat least cinerated. Promoters of the technology 1,500 tons per day are either operating predict the figure will reach 40percent or in the advanced planning stages. Asa before the turn of the century.21 point of comparison, to burn all of the Not everybody is convinced of the combustible waste produced in New merits of waste-to-energy plants. The York City would require 12 incinerators round of incinerators built throughout each capable of handling 1,500tons of the world during the first half of this waste a day.20 cen- tury have all been retired in largepart Promoters of waste-to-energy plants because they did notmeet air quality point to international experience with standards established after theircon- incinerators as an indicator of their feasi- struction. Some analysts arenot satisfied bility. Some 350 plants are operating in that the emissions problemsat the newer Brazil, Japan, the Soviet Union, and vari- incinerators have been resolved. ous nations in Western Europe, which Skeptics point especially to thepoten- has about half the total. In Denmark, tial problems of burning materialscon- Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland,more taining chlorine compounds. (Plastics than half of household waste is burned and bleached paperare the two major (see Table 6-2), but only a portion of sources.)During combustion,these Table 6-2. Share of Household WasteSent to Waste-to-Energy Plants in Various Countries, 1985 Amount Amount of Waste of Waste Share of Generated Burned Wastes Country Plants Per Year Per Year Burned Operating (million metric tons) (percent) (number) United States 136.1 4 3 58 japan' 71.5 18.7 26 361 West Germany 26.3 9.0 34 46 Sweden 1.8 51 7 Switzerland 2.5 1.9 75 14 'Data for 1983. soustcE: Allen Hershkowitz, Garbage Burning Lessons fromEurope: Consenms and Controversy in Four European Stales (New York: Inform, 1986); Allen Hershkowitz,Managing JapanWaste (New York: Inform, 1987).

124 (108) State of the World-1987 molecules regroup and form members Beforeanyoperatingexperience of the chemical families known as diox- could be gained at the first plant, the city ins and furans. Some dioxins, such as would issue bonds worth $1.5 billion. tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, are among This is a risky venture. Investments of the most toxic molecules known. They this size require careful planning, and are implicated in weakeningthe immune the introduction of a relatively new tech- system, thereby making the body more nology should proceed slowly so that the susceptible to carcinogens, and they bugs can be ironed out at the first plant have been shown to affect fetal develop- before the second is built. Encouraging ment and cause chloracne.22 recycling and developing a new, envi- From February 1985 until June 1986, ronmentally sound landfill site, which ul- Sweden enforced a moratorium on the timately will be required anyway for in- construction of additional incinerators so cinerator ash and noncombustibles if that it could investigate the formation, not for trash, is likely to be a wiser use of emissions, and health effects of dioxins taxpayer funds. Recycling less than 15 further. Denmark followed with a mora- percent of New York City's waste would torium of its own, and concern among eliminate the need for one incinera- West German and American scientists tor.26 grew. Epidemiological surveys indicated No nationwide emissions standards disturbing levels of dioxin in the milk of exist for waste-to-energy plants in the nursing mothers, and many analysts attri- United States, nor are there federal bute the prevalence to incinerators.23 guidelines on permissible dioxin levels. Sweden is thc only country with specific dioxin regulations. In West Germany, 11 pollutants are regulated and furnaces A growing number a cities around that violate emissions limits for one hour the world are integrating recycling are required to close. Any plant manager into their waste management plans. who knowingly violates an environmen- tal standard receives a mandatory two- year jail term.21 Unansweredquestionsaboutthe In addition, all plant workers in West chemistry of the combustion and cooling Germany and all plant managers and processes have led to heated arguments high-level workers in Switzerland are re- by scientists on both sides of the issue.24 quired to attend two-arid-a-half years of Until the uncertainties surrounding di- practical and theoretical training in re- oxin formation and its health effects are source recovery. Regulator:: are also resolved, it would be prudent for cities concerned about the ash residue from to proceed slowly and cautiously in their waste-to-energy plants. Because the ash adoption of waste-to-energy plants. contains heavy metals, Sweden treats it In citieslike New York, however, as hazardous waste anu California may where disposal space is fast running out, adopt the same approach.28 waste managers are looking for a quick Waste collection, transpurtation, and fix. They want to build five incinerators disposal cost cities from $30 to over initially, followed by three more, with a $100 per ton. Solid waste management total capacity among the eight incinera- is a large and growing share of city bud- tors of 17,850 tons of waste per day.The gets. Yet evaluating alternative manage- first five plants, with a capacity of 11,200 ment practices is frequentlyleft to the tons per day, would be constructed system's critics. The purchase-consume- simultaneously.23 dispose mentality jc so well rooted in

125 Realizing RecyclIng's Potential (ro9) Table 6-3. Environmen:al Benefits Derived fromSubstituting Secondary erials for Virgin Resources Environmt-'rital Benefi Aluminum Ste 1 per Glass (percent) Reduction of Energy Use 90-97 47-74 23-74 4-32 Reduction of Air Pollation 95 85 74 20

Reduction of Water Pollution 97 76 35 Reduction of Wastes 97 80 Reduction of Water Use 40 58 50 sounce: Robert Cowles Letcher and Mary T. Shed, "Source Separationand Citizen Recycling,- i dliarn D. Robinson, ed., The Solid Wasie handbook (NewYork: John Wiley 8c Sons. 1986).

public attitudes that even proposalsto mixed with other refuse, particularlyor- shift from one disposal site to another ganic food waste, Glass and metals, for example, from a landfill toa waste- while less vulnerable to degradation, to-energy plantare touted as radical. competewithuncontaminatedraw Recycling programs that requirenot materials in the marketplace. Organic only a new way of thinking about waste wastes destined for the compost pileare but greater involvement bya host of easiest to handle if theyare free of inor- small, dispersed participants face even ganics and substances toxic to plants.As greater institutional barriers. Despite a rule, the nearer to the origin of the these obstacles, a growing number of cit- waste that recovery occurs, the less sort- ies around the world are integratingre- ing and processing will be needed before cycling into their wastemanagement the material can be recycled. The clean- plans. These cities save money by avoid- est secondary materials always command ing disposal costs and by sellingsec- the highest prices. ondary materials. Some consumer wastes, suchas refill- able glass bottles, only requirea thor- ough washing before reuse. The bottles are about 50 percent heavier than their nonrefillable counterparts andare de- RECYCLING TRENDS AND signed for up to 30 round-trips. Alumi- POTENTIAL num, nonrefillable glass, and steel re- quire more elaborate processing,but Wastes available for recycling theoreti- can be recycled almost indefinitely. The cally include all consumer discards. In energy and materials savings associated practice, it is necessary to distinguish be- with recycling these productsare enor- tween quantity and quality. Although mous. (See Table 6-3.) some analysts assert that more than half Aluminum is the most energy-inten- the consumer waste streamcan be eco- sive commodity in commonuse, and in nomically recycled, achieving such high some areas of the world, energy is a rates requires careful waste handling. greater share of the production costs Paper rapidly loses its value when than raw materials. Recycling aluminum

1 2 6 (no) State of the World-1987 requires only 5 percent as much energy percent cheaper. In the United States, as producing it from bauxite and each some 200 mills use only reclaimed can recycled saves the energy equivalent paper. Developing countries that rely on of a half can of gasoline. Remelting one waste paper can rer.erve scarce water for ton of aluminum eliminates the need for drinking supplies and keep down foreign four tons of bauxite and 700 kilograms debts. Simply recovering the print run of of petroleum coke and pitch, while re- a Sunday edition of the New York Times ducing emissions of air-polluting alumi- would leave 75,000 trees standing." num fluoride by 35 kilograms.29 As literacy rates and paper consump- Use of 15-20 percent crushed, post- tion increase in fiber-poor countries, the consumer glass (collet) was already stan- expanding domestic industry provides dard practice in many glass plants prior an export market for fiber-rich nations. to the energy price hikes of 1973, but The largest importers of waste paper are several newer systems, particularly in de- Canada, Italy, Mexico, South Korea, and veloping countries, now run furnaces ex- West Germany. In India, the domestic clusively on cullet. For every ton of paper industry was aided until 1985 by crushed glass used in the manufacturing stiff duties on wood pulp and paper, but process, some 1.2 tons of raw materials no duty is levied on imported waste are saved. Every 10 percent of cullet in- paper, which all the mills have the capa- troduced into the furnace results in en- bility of using. Paperboard mills in Fin- ergy savings of 2-5 percent. The recent land also import large amounts of used adoption of stricter air pollution stan- corrugated containers, so municipalities dards in japan! Sweden, the United have been given the authority to ban the States, and West Germany has led to an disposal of corrugated boxes. Waste increase in the demand for cullet by paper now accounts for one of every four glass producers because its use reduces tons of general cargo shipped from the emissions.99 Port of New York.32 Materials unsuitable for recycling back into the original product include those Recycling is a cost-effective "dis- composed of many different r:-,nateri- als and those that are severe] y deffrlded. posal" option if it requires fewer Laminated aluminum, paper, ; plas- government subsidies than landfill- tics or simply plastic products made of ing or incineration. chemically incompatible resins are gen- erally too expensive to recycle. The costs of separating and processing exceed the Many different grades of paper pro- value of the resources recovered ducts are recycled, ranging from the Some degraded materials, however, highest quality computer and office can be recycled for new uses. Paper, for paper to corrugated cardboard, newspa- example, is sold as many different grades per, and mixed miscellaneous sheets. depending onitsfiber content and Recycling programs spare millions of brightness. After several rounds through hectares of trees, while simultaneously the recycling mill, the fibers become too conserving water and energy and reduc- short for papermaking, but are still valu- ing the amount of air and water pollu- ableasinsulation,animal bedding, tion that would otherwise occur. Addi- roofing felt, or fuel. The cleaner the tionalsavingsarereapedbecause paper is kept at each stage, the more building a mill designed to use waste conversions it can undergo. paper instead of virgin pulp is 50-80 Recycling rat= fca- such commonly

127 Realizing Recycling's Potential (m) used materials as aluminum,paper, and Only a small percentage of these materi- glass are on the upswing inmany indus- als are nonrecoverable, such trial as paper countries. In the past 10 years used for cigarettes and books. Yetonly Austria has tripled and Japanmore than the Netherlands collectsmore than half doubled its aluminum recyclingrate. its aluminum, paper,or glass for recy- Glass recycling increased bymore than cling. In effect, the country requiresno 50 percent from 1981 to 1985 in Austria, raw materials for making its bottles and the United Kingdom, and West Ger- jars one year out of two. A minimum many. In Germany the volume of glass 50-percent recovery rate for each of collected rose sixfold in the decade these materials is clearly feasible. Infact, through 1984, and in 1985 thecountry the Organisation for Economic Co-oper- recycled more than 1 milliontons. Paper ation and Development estimatesthat recovery has also increased substantially over 90 percent of waste glass could be over the years, but appears to have made available for recovery. Recycling reached a plateau in many countries. Of half the paper used in the worldtoday the 10 nations listed in Table 6-4, only would meet almost 75 percent ofnew Austria,Sweden,andSwitzerland paper demand, and would preserve 8 boosted their paperrecovery rates by million hectares of forestland,an area more than 20 percent during the eight- equal to about 6 percent of Europe's for- ies." ests.34 Despite these overall gains, recycling Processes for cleaning plasticsare not rates could be improved considerably. well developed and the industry isnot yet able to turn a used PET (polyethyl- Table 6-4. Recovery Rates for Aluminum, ene terephthalate) soda bottle into a new Paper, and Glass in Selected Countries, PET bottle. Containers thatare turned 19851 in for recycling are sometimes shredded and stuffed into seat cushionsor used as Country Aluminum Paper2 Glass insulation in sleeping bags and jackets. Netherlands 40 46 53 Plastic lumber is also an emergingmar- Italy 36 303 25 ket for applications suchas low-mainte- West Germany 34 40 39 nance fences and pier supports. Sub- japan 32 483 stituting plastic for wood is encouraged United States 28 27 10 in japan, where plastics consumption has soared in recent years. But in New France 25 34 26 York State, two thirds of the plasticsoft United Kingdom 23 29 12 drink containers returned under thede- Austria 22 44 38 posit system were buried in 1985 be- Switzerland 21 43 46 cause of poor scrap markets." Sweden 18 42 The economics of recycling depend largely on the alternatives available, 'Includes industrial recycling.3Data or 1984. the 3Data for 1983. markets for the recovered products, and souncEs: Aluminum Association, Inc., Aluminum the costs of operating the recyclingpro- Statistical Review for 1985 (Washington, DC.: gram. For years, recycling has been ham- 1986); U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, pered by the belief that it should make Waste Paper Data, 1982-84 (Rome: 1985); Glace Ga- zette (Brussels). October 1986; U.S. glass data from money. But recycling is a cost-effective U.S. Department of Commerce, "Current Indus- -disposal" option if it requires fewer trialReports: Glass Containers.- Washington, government subsidies than landfillingor D.C., May 1986. and Bill Clow, Owens Illinois, incineration. Lower taxes,energy sav- private communication. August 28. 1986. ings, and a cleaner environmentare the

1 2 (142) State of the orldI987 real bottom lines. As landfill costs con- Montgomery County, Maryland, is guar- tinue to rise because of space constraints anteed at least $30 per ton by the mill. In and stricter environmental regulations, theNetherlands,bufferstocksen- and as the high capital costs of incinera- able collectors of waste paper to sell to tors and their pollution control tech- the government-established fund when nologies sap city budgets, the appeal of prices drop below a predetermined recycling will inevitably grow. level. The stock is sold when prices rise. In the densely populated northeastern Such assurances make recycling more section of the United States, for in- appealing to local governments, while stance, the average fee for landfill dis- providing scrap purchasers with stable posal is already more than twice that supplies of secondary materials.36 for any other region. If a system of Unfortunately, opportunities for recy- "sharel savings- were implemented, cling are sometimes blocked by other both cities and private recyclers could community objectives. Flow control or- make money. Taking the extreme exam- dinances, for example, are designed to ple of Philadelphia, a ton of recyclable ensure that waste-to-energy plants oper- newsprint sells for $20-25, but costs the ate at full capacity. Some measures may city $90 to dispose of. If the city instead make it illegal to divert any portion of paid recyclers half the costs--$45--both the waste stream for recycling. But burn- sides would come out ahead and the city ing is not the most cost-effective or effi- would save money. Virtually all materials cient disposal method for many waste except aluminum are worth more as a products. cost avoidance mechanism than as raw Noncombustibles such as metals and materials for recycling.36 glass are valuable when recycled but In California, a study conducted by cause undue wear and tear and take up the Waste Management Board found the storage and furnace space at incinera- statewide average cost of collection and tors. Paper and plastics, on the other disposal of refuse is $60 per ton. Accord- hand, help generate valuable electricity. ing to Board estimates curbside recy- Unseparated municipal waste has a heat- cling typically costs about $40 per ton, a ing value of some 8,400 kilojoules per third less than landfill disposal. The dif- kilogram, approximately half that of ference in net costs comes from the reve- coal. The calorific values of paper and nues gained through selling the recycla- plastics are two and four times as high, bles rather than paying for their buria1.37 respectively. Thus the energy recovery Prices paid for the materials recovered potential of the waste diminishes as also factor largely in the economics of these materials are culled.33 recycling. Low and volatile prices are the High-grade paper, however, is more bane of secondary materials markets. valuable as a raw material than as a fuel, Without a dependable floor price, or and newspaper and corrugated card- ample storage space to maintain price- board may be as w,11. A study done for stabilizing buffer stocks, program plan- Garden State Paper Company in New ning is impaired. Economically sustain- jersey concluded that if 25-50 percent of able recycling requires high consumer newsprint were recycledinsteadof participation rates, yet households can- burned, the energy output of the incin- not be asked to change their behavior erator would drop by 3.5-7 percent. from week to week in order to accommo- When the energy required to produce date market swings. newsprint from virgin fibers was ac- A curbside newspaper collection ser- counted for, the energy savings dramati- vice available to 70,000 residences in cally offset the incinerator losses. News-

129 Realizing Recyc ing's Potential (ir3) paper recovery rates already exceed 50 culations of incinerator capacity begin. percent 7n a number of cities.40 Otherwise, cities commit themselvesto Plastics are a higher value fuel than producing enough waste to justify their paper and thus desirable in terms of en- investment. ergy recovery. But according to Dr. Jack A growing number of wastemanage- Milgrom, a plastics analyst, "Recycling ment programs are setting t'plicit goals plastics saves twice as much energy as for the share of wastes that will berecy- burning them in an incinerator. Produc- cled or the share that will bc diverted ing a fabricated plastic product from from landfills. The Portland, Oregon, scrap instead of virgin resin saves some metropolitan area, for example, has de- 85-90 percent of the energy otherwise termined that up to 52 percent of its used, including the energy of the petro- waste stream is potentially available for leum feedstocks used to manufacture the resin."41 reduction, reuse, or recycling and that materials, fuels, or electricitycan be In addition, because plastics,espe- recovered from the remainder. Com- cially polyvinyl chloride, contain dioxin munities within the metropolitanarea precursors, burning them poses envi- will be able to devise their ronmental risks. In Japan, a 1982survey own strategies by the Ministry of Health and Welfare of for meeting these targets, but if the goals 3,255 municipalities revealed that 41 are not achieved by 1989, waste loads percent collect plastics as part of com- containing a high percentage of recycla- bustibles and 34 percent designate plas- ble materials will not be acceptedat dis- tics as one of the incombustibles,or posal facilities that do not processwaste wastescausingdifficulties whenin- for recovery. The region, hometo 1.2 cinerated. A trial program in Bremen, million people, already recycles 22per- WestGermany, will ask42,000 cent of its waste stream, one of the high- households to separatetheirplastic est rates in the United States.43 wastes for a period of six months. The government is hoping that a plastic-free waste stream will reduce the need for additional air pollution control devices at the city's solid waste incinerator.42 SUCCESSFUL RECYCLING In deciding how much of a municipal- PROGRAMS ity's waste should be incineratedversus recycled, program planners need to in- Getting consumers to participate andes- clude an assessment of the netenergy tablishing markets for recovered materi- gainspossible from eachmaterial. als are the keys to successful recycling Wastes that are more valuable whenre- programs.Severalapproacheshave cycled should be recovered instead of effectively increased recovery rates and burned. By overbuilding incineratorca- salesopportunities.Consumers can pacity, cities lose money IWOways. The segregrate their recyclables for pickup, excess capacity represents a capital in- permit others to retrieve the valuable vestment that is not used and the desire components, or pay for a central pro- (or in some cases contract obligation) to cessing plant to separate them. They deliver a high volume of wastes to the may also return selected items to the plant curtails the incentive to reduce and place of purchase or take them toa col- recycle wastes both now and in the fu- lection or redemption center. ture. Only after designing the largest The demand for recovered products practical recycling program should cal- can be enhanced by meeting the re- 130 ("4 ) Slate of the World-19137 source needs of regional industries, ex- German and Swiss governments are au- ploring new uses for secondary materi- thorized to implement deposits on one- als, and offering economic incentives to way packages at their discretion. In On- waste processors and companies that use tario, Canada, a soft drink container recycled materials as product inputs. regulation issued in 1985 ties the use of Procurement policies that either favor or deposits to the market share of refillable explicitly do not discriminate against containers and the recycling rate of non- goods made with postconsumer wastes refillable containers. The policy protects also boost demand. Market stimulation the current 40-percent market share for simultaneouslyrequlresguaranteed refillable bottles and requires that all suppliesofhigh-qualitysecondary nonrefillable containers achieve a mini- materials. Competition from virgin re- mum recycling rate of 50 percent within sources and industry standards for the three years of their introduction. Failure finishedproductsettheoperating of any type of container to achieve the parameters. If recycled materials are not designated 50-percent target will result as reliable, they will not be used. in a deposit equivalent to that on a com- Programs geared to the recycling of parably sized refillable bottle. A two-liter specific products often include a mone- PET bottle, for example, would carry a tary incentive, usually in the form of a deposit of 800 Canadian." deposit. When consumers purchase car- The new regulations in Ontario pave bonated beverages or milk jugs, for ex- the way for introduction of new con- ample, they may be charged separately tainer materials, but in a manner that for the container. If it is returned clean ensures they are recycled. Since 1972 and intact, the consumer receives a re- refillable bottles and steel cans have fund. Once popular, voluntary deposit been the only legal soft drink containers programs are now almost extinct and in the province, with steel cans enjoying most of today's schemes are spurred by a 60-percent share of the market as the legislation. Nine American states, home only nonrefillable package available. to more than 40 million people, require Now, nonrefillable glass and PET bottles deposits on soft drink and beer contain- will also be allowed, but aluminum cans ers.44 arenot permitteduntilSeptember Oregon pioneered the system in 1972, 1987.47 and New York's program, the newest, Some retailers are purchasing reverse began in 1983. The 400 million cases of vending machines to accept returned beverage containers sold in New York containers and disburse deposit refunds. each year make it a larger market than After inserting their containers (as rap- the other eight states combined. A study idly as one per second), customers are conducted by the Beer Wholesalers As- issued either cash or a redeemable sociation found that within two years of voucher, sometimes accompanied by its implementation the New York de- promotional coupons. Most of the ma- posit law had saved $50 million in chines are designed to accept aluminum, cleanup expenditures, $19 million on but reverse vending machines that ac- solid waste disposal costs, and $50-100 cept glass are already on the market, and million on energy, while increasing net at least one company is working to de- employment by at least 3,800 jobs." velop a machine for PET bottles." Deposits on beverage containers are By the end of 1985, over 12,000 re- also used in the Netherlands, Scan- verse vending machines were in use in dinavia, the Soviet Union, and parts of 15 countries. Sweden has one third of Australia, Canada, and Japan. The West the total, and another half are found

131 Realizing Recycling's Polenlial (ii5) throughout Norway, the United States, tion. Since 1981, more than half the300 and France. Most of the machinescan billion aluminum cans sold havebeen read the universal product cedeon the returned for recycling. Theaverage can container and are equipped with mi- that comes out of a store is remeltedand crocomputers programmed to maintain back on supermarket shelves withinsix a running inventory of the number, type, weeks. American consumers have and brand of package received. Both in- re- ceived over $1 billion for their efforts.By door and outdoor modelsare available encouraging recycling and reducing with a wide range of storage capacity. the weight of their cans, the industry used22 Beverage distributors like the system be- percent less energy to producea pound cause instead of picking up a fraction of of aluminum in 1984 than in 1972.52 each customer's returns, theycan pick up all the units in storage and a central accounting system willcalculate the credits and debits owed each company.49 Long-term contracts for recycled A few countries have successfully glass have operated foryears in shunned deposit systems in favor of vol- West Germany, Switzerland,and unteer drop-off programs. In West Ger- Austria. many, for example, 35,000 bottle collec- tion centers are scatteredacross the country, with some 6,000 igloo-shaped Official programs forrecovering high- containers in Bavaria alone. Residents of value materials are usually lacking in de- the state of Hesse will soon haveaccess veloping countries, but informal, early to both a glass and paper receptacle morning scavenging is often evidentin within 500 meters of their homes. In high-income residential neighborhoods. 1985, West German glass container While not encouraged, it is generally tol- manufacturers bought nearly 1 million erated, and frequently well organized. tons of domestic scrap, representing The informal system is commonly based about 80 percent of total disposable bot- on a network of buyers and their ap- tle production, and purchased another pointed neighborhood agents, typically 90,000 tons of cullet from importers.50 specialized in only one or justa few cate- Collection rates are also high in Swit- gories of materials. Sometimes the rigLts zerland, after increasing tenfold in the to scavenge in certain neighborhoods decade to 1984. On average, 19.7 kilo- are actually bought and sold. grams of glass per person are recycled, Scavenging also takes placeat stages corresponding to about 50 percent of further along in the wastemanagement glass consumption. Here,as in West system. In Bangkok, Thailand, collection Germany, glass returns are usuallysepa- crews spend up to 40 percent of the time rated by color to enhance their value. while on their service routes recovering The demand is greatest for clear and and sorting paper, bottles,cans, and brown cullet, as color-mixedscrap is plastics. They reportedlyearn as much only usable for makinggreen glass. from recycling as they do from their offi- Long-term contracts for recycled glass cial salary. Collectioncrews in Manila have operated at the national levelfor bring along an extra unpaid member years in West Germany, Switzerland, solely for the purpose of sorting.59 and Austria." Recognizing the contributions that In the United States, aluminumcan this informal sector makes byreducing mmufactur ers promote recycling in all dependence on foreign imports and states, not just those with deposit legisla- lessening the volume ofwastes requiring 132 (ii6) State of the--orld-1987 land disposal, the Ministry of Environ- Colorful, space-saving storage contain- ment in Indonesia is developing strate- ers appear to elicit greater cooperation, gies aimed at supporting scavenging. In as do reminders from a designated the Philippines, a pilot recycling pro- neighborhood leader about the timing gram in Manila was initiated with the of the next pickup and the value of recy- purpose of lessening the stigma attached cling. High levels of participation, essen- tohouse-to-housescavengers.Sup- tial for a successful program, are also ported by a widespread public informa- encouraged by offering frequent collec- tion campaign, workers were trained as tions, which mean consumers need to ECO-AIDES and provided with clean dedicate less household storage space. uniforms emblazoned with the message By lowering the cost of municipal waste "pera sa basura," meaning "money from disposal, recycling programs also pro- refuse."54 vide tax breaks for local residents. Municipal dumps also attract scaven- Source separation programs are in gers. In Mexico City, the dump sites are place in many areas of Western Europe said to support 10,000 people. Waste and Japan and are increasingly used in piles in Cali, Colombia, a much smaller the United States. The earliest plans city, supply 400 well-organized workers were adopted in small to mid-size cities, with salable scrap. Scavengers in Orange some of which now have a decade of ex- County, California, bid each week for the perience behind them. Larger cities such right to salvage from one of the four as Chicago and New York are engaged in county landfills. Because of the low liv- small-scale experimental programs de- ing standard and health risks associated signed to test citywide feasibility. The with this type of labor, scavenging is not Office of Recycling in New Jersey recom- the preferred recovery method. On the mends that source separation programs other hand, new waste management sys- be made mandatory for residential and tems should take into account their dis- commercial generators. The short-term placement of this traditional source of goal is to reduce the municipal waste re- employment and secondary materials.55 quiring disposal by 25 percent.56 The fastest growing type of recycling In the state of Oregon, a Recycling program in industrial countries requires Opportunity Act went into effect on July consumers to separate their refuse by 1, 1986. Its aim is to make recycling material and then place it on the curb for available to all citizens in the state. Resi- routine collection. In some areas, recycl- dential curbside pickup of recyclables is ables and nonrecyclables are collected required at least once per month in cities on the same day in a slightly modified of 4,000 or more; in smaller communi- truck. In others, a specially designed, ties, recycling depots must be made compartmentalized truck with an alter- available at disposal sites. The law ex- nate schedule is used. The materials plicitly ranks solid waste management most often segregated are aluminum, options in terms of priority. The most glass, ferrous metals, and newspapers. desirable action is to reduce the amount Some programs also recover corrugated of waste generated, then to reuse the cardboard, used oil,plastics, organic material for the purpose it was originally kitchen wastes, and yard and garden de- intended. Next comes recycling of the bris. nonreusable material, followed by en- Because the purchase-consume-dis- ergy recovery from "waste that cannot pose habit is so well entrenched, espe- be reused or recycled, so long as the en- cially in industrial countries, promoting ergy recovery facility preserves the qual- a shift to recycling often calls for wide- ity of air, water and land resources.- spread publicity, incentives, or both. The last step is to dispose of the remain-

133 Realizing Re Potential -ler by landfilling or other approved cause environmentally conscious resi- method.57 dents demanded it.60 Appropriate structuring of waste col- The other side of the recycling coin lection and disposal fees also encour- relies on stroag and stable markets for ages recycling. Surcharges on landfill secondary materials. Recovery ratesare costs are one way to discourage dump- meaningless if there is no demand for ing. In New Jersey, the 120-per-cubic- the materials collected. On the freemar- yard fee, implemented in 1982, isre- ket, recyclables compete with virginre- funded to communities in the form of sources for industry dollars. As a result, tonnage grants for materials recycled. the more consistent the volume col- The program appears to be working. By lected and the cleaner the wastes, the 1985, more than half of Newlersey's 567 easier it will be to find a buyer. municipalities offered curbside recycling To encourage the use of recycledpro- programs-159 of them mandatory ducts, governments can require their and collection volumes have increased purchasing agents to buy competitively each year.56 priced goods that contain a certainper- The remaining municipalities in New centage of postconsumer stock. Reports, Jersey have at least one recycling depot laws, and tax forms printed on recycled or a mobile collection vehicle, and more paper, government vehicles lubricated than 80 towns have started composting with rerefined oil, and public roads or mulch programs for yard and garden paved in part by recovered rubber all wastes. A regional 80-ton-per-day recy- represent huge markets. cling facility opened in April 1986 in According to Richard Keller, director Camden County will process approxi- of the Maryland paper procurementpro- mately 60 percent of the recyclable bot- gram, "Use of recycled paper by Federal tles and cans from the county's 37 towns agencies is important not only because when it is fully operational. Plantmanag- of the volume of Federal purchases ers expect it to be self-supporting within (creating a large market demand), but a year.59 also because Federal procurementar- Recycling programs are most effective rangements will be used by state, local when integrated within a city's overall and private organizations as a modelto solid waste management plan. If added establish programs of their own to buy as an afterthought, and implemented recycled paper. Additionally,as the mar- outside of the waste collection system', ket grows for recycled paper, the unit recycling schemes typically have lower cost will go down, reducing costs for all recovery rates. One way to ensure that organizations."61 proposals for materials recovery get a fair Leafing is to appoint a full-timere- cycling coordinator at both the state Surcharges on landfill costs are one and municipal level. Cities can alsoen- courage recycling by stipulating that way to discourage dumping. franchises for or contract bids by waste collectors and haulers include a compre- hensive curbsiderecycling program. The state of Maryland has had a pro- This approach is working successfully in gram to buy recycled paper since 1977. dozens of cities, but is still a long way Over 1 million reams of recycled bond from universal adoption. The municipal- and a total of $17 million in recycled ities that have gone this route usually paper products have been purchased. chose it when they were faced with rap- The state government is now buying half idly rising waste disposal costs or be- its bond paper from recycledpaper 134 (118) State of theorld-1987 manufacturers and nearly all of its tissue often begin with subsidized raw mat and towel products from reclaimed fiber als and energy prices and continue mills. Enough energy has been saved to through the design stage, where product heat nearly 9,000 homes for a year.62 managers focus on dozens of marketing In Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, concerns but are rarely influenced by an and Wisconsin, businesses engaged in item's recycling potential. Throughout recycling pay lower taxes. Two pro- the manufacturing, merchandising, and grams are available in Oregon. One ad- consumption phases, materials selection ministered by the state energy agency and purchasing decisions are made with- granted 27 Oregon firms $13.8 million out considering a product's afterlife. in tax credits in 1984 for the purchase of Characteristics that inhibit reuse, recy- recycling equipment. The other is run by cling, or disposal are too often either the state environmental agency and pro- ignored or viewed as somebody else's vides a 50-percent investment tax credit problem. Removing and overcoming for projects that reduce pollution. In these barriers and establishing markets North Carolina, the cost of equipment for secondary materials are essential to purchased for recycling may be de- making the relationship between pro- ducted from income and franchise taxes, ducers and consumers a two-way street. and excluded from property taxes. Sales Prices for raw materials, energy, and tax exemptions are available to recycling production inputs rarely reflect their full firms in Florida and Wisconsin.63 cost or societal value. Depletion and ex- Conducting studies of the inputs used tractionallowancesencouragecon- by manufacturers and the degree to sumption of virgin resources, while pub- which those inputs could be supplied by licly administered mineral and forest recycled materials will also stimulate leasing programs are chronic money los- markets. By focusing on regional de- ers. The U.S. Forest Service, manager of mand, secondary materials processors 22 percent of the nation's timberlands, can tailor their output. In agricultural lost more than $2 billion on its sales dur- areas, for example, they can produce ing the last 10 years. Selling timber fencing and animal bedding, in coastal below cost promotes the depletion of regions pier supports and products for wildlife habitats and continued reliance onvirginmaterials. The taxpayers export, and in industrial settings pallets, charged for these subsidies are effec- containers, and nonspecialized parts. tively paying to shrink the market for Plastics recyclers in Rome daily turn old their recyclable paper.66 garbage sacks into 350,000 new refuse Subsidized loans for power plant con- bags. In East Germany, waste plastic bot- struction and pollution control equip- tles are converted into a polyester back- ment compound the problem by mask- ing for carpets and other textiles.64 ing the true costs of the large amounts of energy used to process materials. Ana- lysts at the Washington-based Center for Renewable Resources estimated that the U.S. government provided $44 billion in CORNERSTONES OF A subsidies to the energy industry in 1984, RECYCLING SOCIETY a sum equal to one quarter of the federal budget deficit. Other production inputs, Many of today's tax codes, pricing mech- such as water, are also sold below cost anisms, and marketing practices discrim- and at rates considerably less than re- inate against recycling. The obstacles placement value, thereby sending erro-

135 Realizing Recycling's Potential (zi9) neous signals to plant managers. The turnable packages for beer andcarbon- opportunity to trim waterusage by three ated beverages are permittedon the fifths if recyded paper is used insteadof market. The French government, adopt- pulp will not become cost-effective until ing a different approach, in 1979di- water is realistically priced.66 By under- rectedthatbeverage pricing natural resources, containersin governments household waste be reduced 40percent subsidize the continuation ofa throwa- and the amount of energy consumed way society. per packaged hectoliter be reduced 12per- Stricter air and water pollutionregu- cent by 1984. The industries affected lations would also make recyclingmore could develop their own strategies appealing. As noted earlier, substitut- for meeting the target. Unfortunately,lack ing scrap steel and aluminum forores of diligence resulted ina less than effec- cuts smelter emissions by 85 and 95 tive program.68 percent, respectively. Water pollution is Sometimes the materials themselves scaled back 76 and 97 percent. Already. are the barrier to recycling. The plastics stricter regulations governing ground- share of U.S. municipalwastes has nearly water pollution and methane gasgener- doubled over the past 10years, to an ation at sanitary landfillsare starting to estimated 6-8 percent of total volume. tilt the economic scales in recycling's According to Mary Sheil, director favor.67 of New Jersey's Office of Recycling,"These Superfluous and ill-conceived packag- materials have limited recycling ing and advertising further complicate markets and often replace recyclable materialin waste management and recyclingpro- product packaging.- One of the barriers grams. Products packed in metal, sur- to further plastics recycling is the inabil- rounded by plastic, and then placed in ity to distinguishone plastic resin from paper bags are not uncommon;more another. Without separation by elaborate wrappings are alsoeasy to type, find. And though manufacturers will not evenattempt to most wineries and recycle the scrap. Effortsto develop a some breweries are still content to usea plastic identification system forconsum- standard bottle witha unique paper ers are slowly getting under way.69 label, many soft drink bottlers and food By focusing on an individual package, packagers have adopted the maxim that the national Coalition for Recyclable products have to stand out and be differ- Waste, headquartered in Washington, ent in order to sell. But the more com- D.C., helped keep the plasticCoca-Cola posites and combinations of materials, can off supermarket shelves. Ina trial and the more designs employed in pack- sales campaigninthe southeastern aging, the more difficultreuse, recycling, United States,experienced recyclers and disposal become. Junk mail,flyers, were alarmed by the polyvinyl chloride and coupons are also overused arsenals label, which would contribute of the advertising industry. to dioxin formation if the canwere burned, and by The key is to design bothproducts the possible contamination of aluminum and packaging withenergy efficiency and recycling programs. If the look-alike waste reduction in mind. Standardized, plastic cans were addedto beverage can refillable containers thatcan be used by collection piles, the sudden flares of multiple producers, such heat as traditional they release would foul secondaryalumi- wine and beer bottles, could bedevel- num smelters. Largely because of this oped for fruit juices, milk, soft drinks, public pressure, the can has been coffee, jams, and so on. In both Denmark side- lined while Coca-Cola works withthe re- and Norway, fewer than 20 differentre- cently formed Plastic Recycling Founda- 136 (120 State of theWorldI987 tion to develop new washing and pro- posable packaging, banned the sale of cessing technologies.70 almost all one-way soft drink containers, in the future, biodegradable plastics including aluminum cans.72 may be used for packaging. Scientists Frustrated by the proliferation of new working independently at a subsidiary of packages and materials, some public offi- Imperial Chemical Industriesinthe cials are beginning to talk about apply- United Kingdom and at Bel land in Swit- ing the "cradle-to-grave" management zerland have come up with a formula for concept from the hazardous waste field "intelligent plastics" that will degrade to solid waste. Materials production, either as a result of natural processes or use, and conversion would be closely following the application of a reagent. monitored so that premature or irre- Initial production runs, constrained by sponsible disposal could be avoided or high costs and low volumes, limit ap- penalized. plications to high-value medical and in- Attempts to increase the amount of dustrial uses, but both companies pro- material available for recycling are on ject large sales to the consumer products the upswing in many areas. Higher industry within several years. A German landfill charges, new legislation, and the subsidiary of Continental Can has al- encouragementofsource-separated ready paid to test the technology for curbside refuse collection are all increas- making labels on recyclable bottles.71 ing the supply of secondary materials. But if governments are going to encour- age recycling, they must also take some Lawmakersinseven American responsibility for enlarging secondary states and at least as many Euro- materials markets. Simplyincreasingsupplywithout pean capitals have introduced bills stimulating demand leadsto glutted to limit or ban some plastics. markets and depressed product prices. The U.S. Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, along with subse- Government regulations and fiscal in- quent amendments, requires all levels of centives may compel manufacturers to government and government contrac- produce recyclable products and pack- tors to purchase "items composed of the aging. One-way containers, for example, highest percentage of recovered materi- could be taxed to discourage their use, als practicable, consistent with maintain- or sales tax exemptions could be imple- ing asatisfactorylevelof competi- mented for products or packaging com- tion.-73 posed of at least 50-percent postcon- Developing these procurement guide- sumer waste. Because of the present lines for a range of recovered materials inability to recycle a large share of waste is proceeding slowly. Only one final plastics, lawmakers in seven American guideline (regarding the use of fly ash in states and at least as many European concrete and cement) was issued during capitals have introduced bills to limit or the directive'sfirst decade. Thirteen ban some plastics. Fast-food containers, states have tried to take up some of the plastic tampon applicators, and dispos- slack by passing procurement laws of able plastic diapers are frequent targets their own. A uniform national standard of proposed prohibitions. West Ger- would, however, have a more far-reach- many has already outlawed PET bottles. ing effect and would free secondary And back in 1977, the Danish govern- materials processors from trying to com- ment, alarmed by the profusion of dis- ply with different rules in each state.74 Realizing Re c tng's Potential (121) The potential for increasedmarkets is is probably the best example tremendous. In 1985 federal, of the state, and broad-based shift away fromraw materi- local governments employed 16.4mil- als and toward recycling. By lion people and spent 1983, the an amount equal industrial market economiesproduced to 35.4 percent of the gross national 30 percent of theirraw steel in electric product. Stimulating markets forrecy- cled materials could arc furnaces, or minimills, that relyex- turn household clusively on scrap for their feedstock.In food wastes into soil-enrichingcompost Argentina, Italy, and Spain, for public parks and old more than newspapers into half the steel is produced in electricfur- insulation for low-income housingpro- naces. Minimills are proliferating while jects. Discarded tires, now fire hazards large integrated steel millsthat depend and breeding grounds for mosquitoes, on iron ore and energy-intensive could help repave and pro- create longer last- duction processesare closing their gates ing highways.75 or filing for bankruptcy.77 Governments can also generatemar- As low cost and abundant kets by encouraging manufacturers energy, for. to est, and mineral resources becomea use more discards in their production thing of the past, processesand new manufacturing alteringnonessential processes and pricing policiesare sure quality standards. Tax incentivesto en. to be introduced in other industries. courage the purchase of recycling equip- Though the gains made in ment is an approach that appears recovering to be aluminum, glass, and paperare impres- gaining favor. New Jersey is considering sive, tremendous potential remains. a 50-percent tax credit for equipment Pro- viding a growing world populationwith that makes products containingat least wood for housing,paper, and fuel and 50-percent recycledmaterials. Paper with metals and glass brightness and glass clarity standards to build cities, manufacture technical equipment,and can also be modified for certainpro- package food and medicines will require ducts, thus enlarging the marketfor re- that resources not be wasted. cyclables.76 Future economic growth depends The inevitable global transition on from the efficient marshaling ofenergy, raw dependence on extractive industriesto materials, and scarce financial reliance on recycled materials has capital. al- The countries that make thetransition to ready begun. Higherenergy and materi- als prices and the development a recycling society most quickly and of new smoothly will have the healthiestenvi- technologies are propelling the transfor- ronments and the strongest economies. mation. The international steelindustry Sustaining World Agriculture Lester R. Brown

World agriculture is in a state of dis- woodland first. In addition, agricultural array. Per capita food production is ris- production has been raised to artificially ing in some regions, and falling in others. high levels in many industrial countries U.S. farmers, the world's most produc- by government-supported farm prices tive, are going bankrupt at a rate not far above world market levels. seen since the Great Depression. West- On the demand side, food consump- ern Europe, a grain importer since the tion trends have not followed the script. Industrial Revolution began, now com- Improvements in diet that were rou- petes with traditional exporters in world tinely projected for the Third World markets. have not materialized everywhere. In Over the past decade, the world farm Africa and Latin America, where malnu- economy has been transformed as the 'on is common and output should grain shortages of the seventies have be- have been rising, per capita food pro- comethegrainsurplusesofthe duction was actually falling, pulling con- mid-eighties. Unfortunately, thisshift sumption down with it. Although 1986 has occurred for all the wrong reasons was a relatively good crop year for overplowing, excessive subsidies, and Africa, the amount of grain produced falling food consumption in regions with per person was still 14 percent below the hungry people. postwar peak reached in 1969. And in During this century's third quarter, Latin America it has declined 8 percent farmersthroughouttheworldre- from the historical peak in 1981, falling sponded to both market demands and in four of the last five years.' subsistence pressures by plowing a re- Compilations of world agricultural cord amount of new land. Much of it is production data include output pro- highly erodible land that will eventually duced with agricultural practices that lose its topsoil and become wasteland erode soils, lower water tables, or are unless it is converted to grassland or otherwise unsustainable. A more accu- Sustaini ig Wod Agriculture (123 ) rate picture requires an ecological defla- Milikin tor comparable to the deflatorecono- Hectares mists use to eliminate the effects of price inflation when calculating real economic growth. Such a measure would bothhelp determine "real" production levels in the short run and, by determining which production is ecologically sustainable, facilitate more intelligent planningfor long-term food security.

Source; U.S. Dept. of ROPLAND OVEREXPANSION Agriculture Between 1950 and 1976,thearea 1950 1960 1970 1980 planted to cereals, whichcover two 1990 thirds of the world's cropland, expanded Figure 7.1. World Harvested Area of Grain, from 590 million to 720 million hectares. 1950-86 Although small compared with growth in world food demand, this 22-percent to correct the imbalance thus created, increase greatly exceeded that forany the U.S. government urged farmersto comparable historical period. Most of take a record amount of landout of pro- this growth came in two surges.2 duction.4 The first surge, in the mid-fifties,was The experiences of the big three food largely aresult of Moscow's Virgin producersthe Soviet Union, China, Lands project, an undertaking thatex- and the United Statesillustratewell panded Soviet cropland by roughlyone the overplowing that afflicts theworld as fifth. The second came during themid- a whole. For roughly two decades the seventies, when world grain pricesdou- Soviets sought to maintain thegains bled following poor 1972 harvests inthe from the Virgin Lands expansion,but Soviet Union and the Indian subconti- they finally concluded that muchof this nent. Several additional poor cropyears land was marginal. Asa result, the Soviet in the mid-seventies kept prices highand grain area has contracted in eight ofthe spurred world cropland expansion, prin- last nine years, declining 12percent cipally in the United States and Brazil. overall. To some degree, the shrinkage Between 1971 and 1975, the U.S. grain reflects an increase in fallowedarea. But area expanded by some 8 million hect- most of it resulted from the abandon- ares, or roughly one tenth.3 ment of cropland, and it has coincided Since 1976, the world area in cereals with a decline in Soviet grainproduction has fluctuated somewhat, but basically of nearly one fifth since the lateseven- changed little. (See Figure 7-1.) The 715 ties.5 million hectares harvested in 1986is A similar situation existed in China, slightly below the 720 millionhectares where the "grow more grain" campaign of 1976. The principal shiftscame in instituted by Mao Zedong ledto an eco- 1981, when the United States removed logically unsound expansion ofcrop- all crop restrictions ina shift to a free- land. Harvested grainarea dropped market philosophy, and in 1983, when, from 98 million hectares in 1976to an 140 (.124 Slate of the Wor1d-1987 estimated 88 million hectares in 1986, a cropland to grass or trees under 10-year decline of one tenth, In China's case, contracts. The plan provided for the pulling back from margin...1 land did not conversion of 45 million acres (1 acre lead to production declines as it did in equals 0.4 hectares) to grassland or trees the Soviet Union. The phenomenal by 1990: 5 million acres in 1986, 10 mil- surge in production associated with the lion acres for each of the following three 1978 shift to a market-oriented farm sys- years, another 5 million acres in 1990, tem completely masked any negative plus 5 million acres to be retired as con- effects on production.8 venient. Coupled with restrictions on the conversion of grassland to cropland (the "sodbuster- provision) and the World cropland area may not ex- draining of wetlands(the "swamp- buster" provision), this program is ex- pand at all during the remainder ofpected to reduce US. grain area by this century. roughly one seventh by 1990, on a par with the recent Soviet and Chinese re- ductions.8 In the United States, with an economic Smaller countries with marginal crop- system quite different from either the land areas are also cultivating less land. Soviet Union or China, cropland area In mountainous regions, a combination expanded markedly in the mid-seventies of small fields and heavily eroded soils is in response to high grain prices. Farmers making farming uneconomical. Italy, for reacted to the 1972-74 price increases example, reducer' its grain area from 7 by plowing grassland in order to plant million hectares to less than 5 million wheat in the western Great Plains, even between the mid-fifties and the mid- though this land is vulnerable to wind eighties, a fall of nearly one third. Dur- erosion.Inotherregions,farmers ing the same period, Yugoslavia reduced drainedswampland.Worldmarket its area in gra in by one fourth.9 prices and government policies both fos- The scheduled shift of 45 millioi tered a mentality of planting -fencerow acres of U.S. cropland to grass and trees to fencerow.- means the world cropland area may not American farmers responded quickly expand at all during the remainder of to the growing markets abroad, but this century. If, as projected, another bil- often at the expense of their soil. By the lion people are added to world popula- late seventies, they were losing nearly as tion over the remaining 13 years of this much topsoil as they had during the Dust century, the grain harvested area, which Bowl years of the thirties. Soil erosion dropped from 0.24 hectares per capita in from wind and water exceeded new soil 1950 to 0.15 hectares in 1986, will shrink formation on one third of U.S. cropland, to 0.12 hectares per person.18 much of it in the midwestern agricultural heartland. But the erosion was heavily concentrated on marginal land: Half of the soil loss came from roughly one tenth of the cropland.7 WATER AND FOOD Congress responded to these unsus- tainable practices by incorporating a During the several millennia since irriga- conservation component in the Food Se- tion was developed in the Middle East, it curity Act of 1985, which encouraged has spread gradually throughout the farmers to plant their highly erodible world. By 1900 some 40 million hectares 141 Sustaining World Agrkulture (125) wereirrigated;by1950,thetotal He (Yellow). These rivers originateat reached 94 million hectares. Since then, high elevations and traverse long dis- growth has been explosive: The irri- tances, providing numerous opportuni- gated area nearly tripled between 1950 ties for irrigation as they flow seaward. and 1985, contributing to the record This contrasts sharply with Australia, for growth of world food production." example, which has no major rivers and, The 177 million hectares added to the hence, only 2 percent of its land under wovld's irrigated area during this time irrigation." entailed heavy use of both surface and One reason that Asia can support half underground . Irrigation the world's people is that it hastwo was a major focus of lending by interna- thirds of the world's irrigatedarea. (See tional development agencies and of in- Table 7-1.) North America and Europe vestment by those working the land. (including the Europeanpart of the So- Farmers drilling wells on theirown land viet Union), each with justover one with their own capital in the southern tenth of the world total,account for U.S. Great Plains and the Gangetic Plain much of the remainder. Africa and South of India achieved impressive gains.12 America are far down the line. The conditions conducive to irriga- The irrigated areagrew most rapidly tion are concentrated in Asia, which has during the fifties and sixties, when itwas many of the world's great riversthe expanding at nearly 4 percent annually. Indus, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the During the seventies, however,even Chang Jiang (Yangtze), and the Huang though rising food prices stimulated

Table 7-1. Growth in Irrigated Area,by Contine 1950-85 Total Irrigated Growth in Irrigated Area Region Area, 1985 950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-85 million hectares) (percent) Asia! 184 52 32 28 8 North America 34 42 71 14 112 Europe3 9 50 67 33 9

Africa 13 25 80 27 13 South America 9 67 20 28 17 Ocea ia 2 0 100 0 0 World 271 49 41 26 8 'Includes the Asian part of the Soviet Union. 'This number, which is for 1980-84 and theUnited States only, is from U.S. Department of Agriculture,Farm and Irrigation Survey-1984. pean part of the Soviet Union, 'Includes the Euro- souacE: Adapted from WA. Rangeley, "Irrigadon and Drainage in the World,- paper presentedat the International Conference cm Food and Water, TexasA&M University, College Station, May 26-30.1986; 1980 irrigated acreages prorated from 1970and 1982 figures as cited in W.R. Rangeky,"Irrigation Current Trends and A Future Perspective," WorldBank Seminar, February 1983. 142 (136) State of theWorldI987 other agricultural investments, irriga- severai Nears, -the development of new tion growth slowed. And the amount of [irrigation] areas has barely surpassed irrigated land has grown on average less the surface (area) of older ones which than 1 percent per year during the first had to be abandoned."15 half of tbs-: eighties. The only large example of fossil !-A some countries, such as the United depletion is the Ogallala, which States, the ;wen is actually declining. In supplies irrigation water in the U.S. 1978, just before the second oil rice Great Plains, from Nebraska tothe hike, U.S. irrigated area totaled 20.4 mil- Texas panhandle. The effect of its falling lion hectares. By 1934, the last year for water level on irrigation has been trau- which data are available, it had dropped matic: In the six states that rely most to 18.1 million hectares, a fall of 11 per- heavily on the OgallalaColorado, Kan- cent. (See Figure 7-2.) Depressed farm sas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, prices suggest further declines occurred and Texasirrigated area declined 15 in 1985 and 1986. California, Colorado, percent between 1978 and 1984.16 Florida, and Texasall leaders in irriga- Although the depletion problem is lo- tionhave registered heavy reductions calized, the overdrafting of rechargeable aquifers can be seen in parts of India, over the last several years.14 China, and the United States, all leading Year-to-year changes in world irri- agricultural countries. In -:e state of gated area reflect the sum of the addition Tamil Nadu on India's southeastern of new capacity and the loss of estab- coast, heavy pumping has dropped the lished capacity due to aquifer depletion, water table some 25-30 meters over the lowered water tables, abandonment of past decade. In the Beijing-Tienjin re- waterlogged and salted land, reservoir gion of northern China and around silting, and the diversion of irrigation Phoenix and Tucson in Arizona, the water to nonfarm uses. In Africa, for ex- combination of agricultural and urban ample, a Club du Sahel review of several demands on underground water sup- Sahelian zone countries where large irri- plies is lowering water tables several me- gationprojectshavebeenpoorly ters per year.17 managed concluded that during the last Waterlogging and salting of irrigated fields are forcing some farmers off the Mil ion land. If underground drainage is not ad- Hectares equate, percolating water gradually ac- cumulates and raises the water table to within several feet of the surface, at which point deep-rooted crops begin '20- suffering.Indryclimatestheac- cumulated water begins evaporating through the remaining inches of soil into the atmosphere, leaving salt on the sur- face and reducing the land's productiv- 10 ity. Glistening white expanses of aban- doned cropland that was once highly Source: U.S. Dept. of productive can be seen when flying over Agriculture Pakistan and the Middle East. Warren Hall, acting director of the 1949 960 1970 140 1990 U.S. Department of Interior's Office of Figure 7-2rrigated Land in the United States, Water Resources Research, stated as 1949-84 early as 1973 that "today every arid land

143 Su.slazing World Agriculture (127 region of the world is insome intermedi- to choose whether to use reservoir water ate or final stage of [salinization], and to generate electricity or to irrigate nowhere, it would seem, has there been farmland, In the Soviet Union, where established a genuine détente with these food is more scarce thanenergy, the deceptively simple destroyers ef man's official policy is to maximize irrigated vaunted accomplishments." As ofthe area, even though for some multipur- mid-eighties, scientists are makingsome poseprojectsthishasmeantre- progress in designing techniques to re- ducingelectricitygeneration30-40 claim land from salt, buton balance percent.21 salinity is spreading." in the United States, which imports In much of the Third World, silting is energy and exports food, the decision reducing the storage capacity of surface often goes the other way. A study ofpo- reservoirs, making it difficult to extend tential irrigation expansion in thePacific irrigation to new areas. All too often, the Northwest concluded that developing engineers who design irrigationsystems 891,000 hectares would not be pay little attention to watershed defor- econom- ical because, among other things,it estation. As trees arc cut and soil erodes, would require forgoing electrical silt Wis reservoirs. gener- ating capacity. The reseas.chteam con- Irrigated agriculture isalso threat- cluded that "most irrigation develop- cued by the diversion ofwater to non- ment will be a net loss for the economy, farm uses, both resi.iential and indus- costing more than it returns byat least trial. This is a problem in several Sun the power cost and, insome areas, a Belt statesArizona, California, Colo- good deal more.-22 rado, Florida, and Texaswheregrow- ing populations are bidding Depleted aquifers, fallingwater tables, water away and growing competition forwater from from farmers. China's northwest and the nonfarm sources suggest that only mod- southwest Soviet Republicsare also di- est increases in irrigation lie ahead. Fu- verting irrigation water to otheruses. ture output gains from irrigated agricul- Looming water shortagesinSouth ture will in many regions depend Africa may force a reduction of irrigated more area there too." on gains in water use efficiency thanon The decision by the Soviet Union new suppliesa shift toward efficiency to that could paralkl the change in oiluse cancel a vast project to divert north- that began in 1974. bound Siberian rivers southwardto the farm belt will markedly lower theex- pected growth in world irrigation. The two largest, the Ob and the Irtysh, were to expand irrigation massively in central Asia. Even the more modest projectto THE ROLE OF FERTILIZER funnel water frcim northern European The technological foundation for the rivers to the Caspian Sea basin would use of chemical fertilizer to raise land cost billions of dollars at a time when productivity was established in 1847, capital is scarce. Soviet leaders have sim- when Justus von Liebig,a German agri- ply decided they cannot afford these cultural chemist, demonstrated that all projects, and are concentratingon rais- the nutrients that plantsremove from ing productivity on the existing cropland the soil could be added inchemical and putting their capital into industrial form. For the next 100years, however, it modernization.20 was easier for farmers to increase output As the world demand for electricity in- through organic fertilizers andcropland creases, governments are being forced expansion. It was not until the mid-twen- 144 (128) State of theWorld-1987 tieth century, when the expansion of Kilograms Hectares cropland fell far behind the growth of 30 0.3 population, that they began to concen- trate their on raising land pro- Fertilizer U. ductivity with chemical fertilizers. World fertilizer use skyrocketed be- 20- -0.2 tween 1950 and 1986 from 14 million to 131 million tons. (See Table 7-2.) In per capita terms, usage quintupled during Grain Area this period, from 5 kilograms to 26 kilo- grams, offsetting a one-third decline in 10 - -0.1 grain area per person. (See Figure 7-3.) This increase was largely responsible for Source: U.S. Dept. of world grain production's climb from 624 Agriculture million to 1,660 million metric tons. 23 1950 1960 1990 1980 1990 Table 7-2. World Fertilizer Use, Total Figure 7-1 World Fertilizer Use and Grain Area and Per Capita, 1950-86 Per Capita, 1950.86 Year Total Per Capita From mid-centurythrough1980, growing world fertilizer use was one of (million metric tons) (kilograms) the most predictable of global economic 14 5 trends, moving higher each successive year, with only an occasional interrup- 1955 18 7 tion. After 1980, however, the pattern became somewhat erratic as the growth 1960 27 9 in world food demand slowed, as Third World debt soared, as agricultural com- 1965 40 12 modity prices weakened, as diminishing returns on fertilizer use set in, and as 1970 63 17 many governments reduced fertilizer subsidies. The annual growth in use 1975 82 21 dropped from 6 percent in the seventies to less than 3 percent in the eighties." 1980 112 26 1981 116 26 During the fifties and most of the six- 1982 115 25 ties, growth in world fertilizer use was 1983 115 24 concentrated in the industrial world, but 125 26 as the adoption of high-yielding, fertil- 1984 izer-responsive varieties of wheat and 1985 130 26 rice gained momentum in Asia, so too 1986 131 26 did fertilizer use. In some agriculturally advanced countries, fertilizer use is now souRcrs: U.N. Fowl and Agriculture Organiza. leveling off or declining. In the United tion,Fertilizer Yearbooks(Rome: various years); Paul Andrilenas.U.S.Department of Agriculture, States, for example, fertilizer use peaked Washington, D.C., private communication. May 9. in 1981, and has fallen since then as farm 1986; population statistics from United Nations prices have weakened. (See Figure 7-4.) Department of international Economic and Social Affairs:Statistical Abstractofthe U.S.-1986(Wash. Given that some 45 million acres of ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, cropland is due to be put into the con- 1986). servation reserve by 1990, U.S. fertilizer 145 Sustaining World Agriculture (129) Million Million Tons Tons 2 30 Sources: FAQ, I 11. Food Policy Research Inst.

10

Source: U.S. DeM. of Agriculture

50 1960 1970 1980 1990 1952 1960 1970 19130 1990 Figure 7-4. Fertilizer Use in the United States, 1950-86 gure 7.5. Fertilizer U e in Chin 952-84 use may not regain the 1981 level for 14 million tons of chemical fertilizer some years.25 were applied, grain production totaled In China, now the world's second larg- 624 million tons. With fertilizeruse ex- est food producer, significant expansion panding far more rapidly than grainpro- in chemical fertilizer use did not begin duction, this ratio gradually declined. until 1960, as planners realized thateven Between 1950 and 1980, the ratio of the most assiduous use of organic fer- grain production to fertilizeruse fell tilizer could not produce enough foodto from 46 to 13. During thenext six years, sustain the country's population. Asnew the ratio remained remarkablyconstant, fertilizer plants came on-line in the late suggesting a reluctance by farmersto seventies, usage climbed sharplymore push it lower, given current grain/fer- than doubling between 1976 and 1981 tilizer price relationships. in the steepest increase ever ina major Farmers were pushed to usemore fer- food-producing country. (See Figure 7_5.)26 tilizers during the seventiesnot only by the spread of irrigation and high-yield- Nevertheless, organic fertilizer contin- ing crop varieties, particulady in India ues to be a major source of plant nutri- and China, but by extensive fertilizer ents. Over half of China's organic fer- subsidies in many Third Worldcoun- tilizer comes from livestockmanure, tries. In the early eighties, these subsi- principally that of pigs (which Maore- dies typically amounted to 50 to 70per- ferred to as four-footed fertilizer facto- cent of fertilizer cost. Urea, for example, ries)and draftanimals. Nightsoil was supplied to farmers in Sri Lanka at (human waste), green manurecrops, and 56 percent below cost. The Nigerian compost make up most of the remain- government went even higher, covering der.22 80 percent or more of costs.28 A crude ratio of world fertilizeruse to Third World governments subsidize grain production, ignoring theuse of fertilizer use to encourage the adoption fertilizer on other crops, showsa rather of a new technology, to achieve food marked shift over the past generation. self-sufficiency, and to stimulate thepro- (See Table 7-3.) In 1950, when nearly duction of export crops. Although these 146 (130) Stale ohe World-1987 Table 7-3. Ratios of World Grain ladesh and Pakistan, and their elimina- Production to Fertilizer Use, 1950-86 tion has been recommended in India. They have been cut back significantly, Grain Fertilizer Response and are headed for elimination in Sene- Year Production Use Ratio gal, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Benin, (million me tic tons) and Togo, among other west African countries."29 14 46 1950 624 Growth in world fertilizer use is likely to remain slow in the absence of either 1955 790 18 43 asubstantialimprovementinthe 30 grain/fertilizer price ratio or technologi- 1960 812 27 cal advances that boost the fertilizer re- 1,002 40 25 sponsiveness of grain. Without these, it 1965 will be uneconomical for most farmers, 63 19 particularly those who already apply 1970 1,197 large amounts, to use a great deal more 1975 1,354 82 16 fertilizer. A rise in grain prices would r,:'_mulate such an increase. But it would 1980 1,509 112 13 also restrict grain consumption among 1981 1,505 116 13 :hose who are on tin lower rungs of the 1982 1,551 115 14 global economic ladder, the very people 1983 1,474 114 13 who most need to ;ricrease their con- 1984 1,628 125 13 sumption of food.

1985 1,674 130 13 1986 1,661 131 13 souRcE:s: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organiza- ENERGY TO PRODUCE FOOD tion,Fertilizer Yearbooks(Rome: various years); U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, ll'arldIndices of .4p-imam-al and Food Produc- At the turn of the century, farmers relied tion 1950-85(unpublished printout) (Washington, on livestock to provide both fertilizer D.C.: 1986), and draft power. They were largely self- sufficient in energy, but as the century reasons all have merit, chemical fertilizer progressed, the use of fossil fuels began subsidies do distort resource use in to increase gradually, and then climbed agriculture, and this is now widely recog- dramaticallyaftermid-century.(See nized. They make agriculture more en- Table 7-4.) Fossil fuels used to operate ergy-intensive and less land- and labor- irrigation pumps and tractors and to intensive. They also discourage the use manufacture fertilizer account for the of indigenous, organic fertilizers. lion's share of energy purchased by In response to budgetary and for- farmers, and hence have been the key to eign-exchange imbalances, many gov- raising grain yields between 1950 and ernments have reduced fertilizer subsi- 1986 from just over 1 ton per hectare to dies during the eighties, and some have 2.3 tons." eliminated them entirely. Economist El- Overall, energy use in agriculture liot Berg notes that most East Asian grew at some 7 percent annually during countries have abandoned these sup- the fifties, then slowed during the sixties ports altogether. In addition, he reports and seventies. (See Table 7-5.) During that "[subsidies] are declining in Bang- the eighties, growth has fallen to 3.4 per- 147 Su.siaining World Agriculture

Table 7-4. Energy Use in WorldAgriculture, 19585 Tractor Irrigation Fertilizer Total Year Fuel Fuel Manufacture Other! Energy (million barrelsofoil equivalent) 1950 143 17 70 46 276 1960 288 33 133 91 545 1970 429 69 310 162 970

1980 650 139 552 268 1,609

1985 739 201 646 317 1,903 ISince no worldwide data are availablefor other uses of energy such turing tractors and other equipment. as synthesizing pesticides, manufac- distributing fertilizer, drying grain, andso on, these were collectively assumed to be 20 percent of thetractor-irrigation-fertilizer total, SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute estimates basedon U.S. Department of Agriculture data; David Error 1741;:ation i» .1gricult tor Gordon Sloggett, Pimentel, Enoris in ti.& 1g-rictdoire: W,R. Rangeley,"Irrigation and Drainage in the World" and "IrrigationCurrentTrends and A Future Perspective." cent per year, a reflection of markedly of feeder canals. Onceconstructed, slower growth in both thetractor fleet and fertilizer use. some gravity-fed systems require rela- tively little energy tooperate, although In irrigation, surface diversionsys- others, such as California's surface tems require heavy energy investments water diversion scheme, depend heavilyon during construction, principallyto build the large darns and associated pumps. By contrast, pump irrigation that networks draws on undergroundwater maintains a steady claim on energyresources. Table 7-5. Annual Growth in EnergyUse Since 1970, the amount ofenergy in this in World Agriculture By Decade,1950-85 sector has risen rapidly, largely because of the surge in well irrigationin India Annual and China, where millions ofpumps Period Growth have come into use.si (percent) The world's tractor fleet hasincreased 1950-60 7.0 from 5.6 million in 1950to 23 million vehicles today. Although draftanimals 1960-70 6.0 are still extensively used for tillage in Africa and Asia, as muchas two thirds of the world's cropland 1970-80 5.2 may now be plowed with tractors. Insome major food-pro- 1980-85 3.4 ducing areas, such as North America,the number of farm tractors has reachedan SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute estimates basedon apparent saturation point, withno in- U.S. Department of Agriculture data; DavidPi- crease since 1979.32 mentel,EnergyIrMizalionin .4g-1-iridiumGordon Sloggett,Enero in U.S. Agriculture;W.R. Rangeley, At mid-century, tractors accountedfor "Irrigation and Drainage in the World" and"Irri- the lion's share of fossil fueluse in agri- gationCurrent Trends and A Future Perspec- five." culturea position that has diminished gradually as pump irrigationand fertil- 148 (132) State of the World-1987 izer use have increased. As of 1985, trac- by the rising fuel costs of the seventies tors are still the largest user of energy in and indicates that the energy intensity of agriculture, but the lead over fertilizers food production can be reduced. has narrowed markedly and could disap- Nevertheless, given the scarcity of pear well before the end of the century. good land to plow, the energy intensity In contrast to the other two leading of world food output seems certain to agricultural uses of energy, tractors con- increase further. If world food consump- tribute more to labor productivity than tion grows 2 percent annually over this to that of land. In general, farm mechan- century's remaining 13 yearsbarely ization has been undertaken primarily to enough to maintain current consump- boostlaborproductivity.Yet some tion levelsfood demand will rise by mechanized activities, such as better nearly one third. If it somehow expands seedbed preparation and more timely at 3 percent per year, as it did from 1950 field operations, have helped farmers to 1973and as it must if malnutrition is reap two harvests per year, thus raising to be markedly reducedthen output land productivity as well. And in much of would have to rise by nearly half. But if the world, it is this productivity that is cropland area does not expand, as now the overriding concern. seems likely, land productivity must rise accordingly. Using conventional technologies, the The energy intensity of world food world's farmers will have to use far more output seems certain to increase energy than they now do to boost the average grain yield per hectare from 2.3 further. tons in 1986 to 3.45 tons in the year 2000. In absolute terms, this would nearly equal the yield gain of 1.3 tons Perhaps the best measure of agricul- per hectare from 1950 to 1986. Since tural mechanization is growth in the yields in some countries are already world tractor fleet, although the larger quite high and increasing little, if at all, size of tractors today means that the total those in countries where they are still substantially understates the growth in low will have to rise disproportionately if horsepower used in agriculture. For the projected needs are to be met.34 United States, a leader in agricultural mechanization, the number of tractors increased from 3.4 million in 1950 to 4.7 million in 1985, while tractor horse- power went from less than 100 million to FOOD SECURITY TRENDS over 300 million.33 The overwhelming trend, therefore, At the global level, changes in per capita has been for agriculture to become more grain production and in grain carry-over energy-intensive. The adjustments that stocks (the amount in storage bins when lie ahead, as world oil production de- a new begins) provide a broad clines, will challenge the world's agricul- sense of food security trends. (See Ta- tural scientists to devise less energy- bles and 7-7.) intensive methods of expanding world Sincegrainssupply overhalf of food output. (See Chapter 8.) One re- human food energy when consumed di- cent trend, the growth in conservation rectly and a substantial part of the re- tillage in the United States, was spurred mainder in the form of livestock prod-

149 Sustaining World Agriculture (133 ) Table 7-6. Annual Growth in World At the other extreme,per capita grain Grain Production, Total andPer Capita, production in Africa has fallen 1950-73 and 1973-86 by nearly one seventh since 1969, drawingpro- Grain duction down close to the survivallevel Grain Output for millions of Africans.At these low lev- Period Output opulationPer Capita els, even a modestweather-induced downturn can becomelife-threatening, (percent) as in 1984 and 1985, when Africans 1950-73 3.1 1.9 1.2 starved to death in recordnumbers." With carry-over stocks ofgrain, the 197346 2,1 1,7 0,4 second food security indicator,an in- crease means that production exceeded souaces: U.S.Department of Agriclure, Eel:). nomic Research Service, WorldIndices of Agricultural consumption during the precedingyear. and Faod Production 1950-85 (unpublishedprintout) Trends here may be measuredin abso- (Washington. D.C,:1986); populationstatistics lute terms or in days ofworld consump- from United Nations Departmentof International tion. Whenever Economic and Social Affairs. carry-over stocks drop below 50 days of consumption,prices ucts, per capita productionprovides increase dramatically. In1972, three some measure ofwhether the worldfood events coincided to price stocksbelow situation is improvingor deteriorating this thresholda 1j.S. decisionto idle a (although it provides littleguidance on record amount of croplandto boost individual countries). Whenfalling per farm prices and tocurry the favor of capita grain output isnot offset by a farmers at election time, theSoviet deci- in stocks,average consump- sion to offset acrop shortfall by imports tion also declines. rather than belt-tightening,and a poor Grain productionper person since monsoon in the Indian subcontinent. 1950 can be divided into In response, world grainprices dou- two distinct bled and remained periods. From 1950 through1973, the strong through 1975 year of the first oil price hike,per capita as poor harvests in major food-produc- output worldwide climbedsome 30 per- ing countries frustratedefforts to re- cent. Since then it has increased build stocks. Despitean all-out produc- scarcely tion effort during the 4 percent, with much ofthis accounted next few years, it for by spectacular gains in was not until 1976 thatcarry-over stocks China.33 moved above 50 days of In addition to the globalslowdown consumption since 1973, regional production and restored some semblanceof price trends stability to the world grain have begun to diverge. Theproduction market.38 surge in China boosted per capita grain When carry-over stocksrange be- tween 55 and 64 days ofconsumption production from scarcely 200kilograms as they did from 1976 through 1981 in 1973 to nearly 300 in1986, providing a degree of tood security unmatched prices are relatively stable,providing a in decent return to producers the country's recent history.With pro- and an as- duction well above the sured supply toconsumers. But when 180-kilogram they exceed 80 daysthesituation in subsistence level,not only has China 1985 and 1986world grain ended its dependenceon imports, it also prices are is converting grain into severely depressed andgovernment pork, poultry, treasuries suffer as theytry to support and eggs to add protein andvariety to diets.36 farm prices and maintainfarm income. As governments seekto alleviate domes-

150 Slate of the World-1987 (-4. ) Table 7-7. Index of World Food Security, 960-86 Reserves World Grain Share of Carry-over Equivalent of Annual World Yea Stocks Idled U.S. Cropland Total Consumption (million metric tons) (days) 1960 199 36 235 103 81 1965 142 70 212 75 1970 6 71 236 71 1971 183 46 229 67 1972 143 78 221 49 1973 148 25 173 43 1974 140 4 144 44 1975 148 3 151 1976 201 3 204 57 55 1977 201 1 202 64 1978 231 22 253 1979 207 16 223 56 56 1980 191 191 57 1981 227 227 67 1982 262 14 276 1983 191 97 288 67 1984 240 33 273 62 82 1985 316 38 354 87 1986 339 51 390 soukcEs: Carry-over stocks and worldconsumption derived from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Forcign Avicullurt Circular, FC-5-86, May 1986; idledcropland estimates from Orville Overtioe, USDA Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service, privatecommunication, June 2, 1986; grain equiva- lents derived from idled cropland data by assuming a yieldof 3.1 metric tons per hectare.

tic surpluses by exporting more grain, (FAO/WHO) calculations of the amount competition for markets intensifies and of food a person needs to function at full trade wars develop. The cost of carrying capacity in all daily activities. This yard- unnecessarily large stocks becomes bur- stick was used to establish two reference densome. poifits for measuring dietary adequacy. A recent World Bank analysis of Third The first benchmark was 80 percent of World nutrition provides some idea of the FAO/WHO standard, a level below the full picture behind these cold data on which stunted growth and serious health food security trends. The study was risks are common. The World Bank re- based on Food and Agriculture Organi- ported that 340 million people fell short zation/World Health Organization of this consumption level in 1980half 151 Suslaining World Agricidlur (135) of them in the Indian subcontinent and Kilograms one fourth in sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly 300 four fifths of this group lived in countries where incomes averaged less than $400 per person annually.39 Latin America The second benchmark, 90 percent of the FAO/WHO standard, is a levelat 200 which growth is not severely stunted but Africa where people do not obtain enough calories to lead a fully productive work- ing life, in 1980, some 730 millionpeo- 100 pleone third of the developing world outside Chinafell short of thisstan- dard. Of this total, 470 million lived in Source: U.S. Dept. a the seven countries that makeup the In- Agriculture

dian subcontinent. Some 150 million 1950 1960 1070 1 were in sub-Sahara Africa, with the re- maining 110 million in Latin America, Figure 7-6. Per Capita Grain Production in North Africa, and the Middle East.40 Africa and Latin America, 1950-86 Between 1970 and 1980 the share of people in the Third World (excluding regions who cannot affordto buy more China) getting less than 90 percent of food. In Egypt, for example, publicre- theFAO/WHOfoodrequirement sistance to a cut in the wheat subsidy dropped from 40 to 34 percent. For led to a less direct reductiona lower- those who were severely malnourished, ing of the wheat content ofa loaf of the decline was somewhat less. But this bread.43 good news is tempered by the impact of Recent developments have brought population growth, which increased the new sources of food security as well as number of malnourished people from insecurity. The dramatic growth in irri- some 680 million to 750 million.41 gation since mid-century has resulted in No comprehensive surveyscompara- more reliable harvests. It has also helped ble to those for 1970 and 1980 have diversify agriculture, reducing depen- been done since, but per capita grain dence on a single crop. For example,a production trends for Africa and Latin quarter-century ago, India depended America suggest a deteriorating food sit- heavily on a single dietary staple, rice; uation in both continents since 1980. today it also relies heavily on wheat. (See (See Figure 7-6.) The famine andnear- Figure 7_7.)44 famine conditions in some 22 African Two developments are responsible: countries in 1984 and 1985 attest to this the increase in irrigation to make dry deterioration. Similarly, as Latin Ameri- season cropping possible and the new can incomes have fallen by nearly one earlymaturing wheats and rices, Many tenthsince1981,the malnourished Indian farmers can grow a summer rice share of the population has undoubtedly crop and a winter wheat crop on the increased as wel1.42 same land. Since 1964, wheat produc- The reduction or elimination of food tion has more than quadrupled, reach- subsidies in key countries is affecting the ing 45 million tons in 1986, compared nutritional condition of literally hun- with a rice harvest of 60 milliontons. dreds of millions of people in thesetwo Wheat may edge out rice as India's lead-

152 (136) State 01 the o d-1987 Million ESTIMATING SUSTAINABLE Tons 80- FOOD OUTPUT Source; U.S Dept.of Agneulture As noted earlier, when economists mea- sure economic gains, they distingush be- tween reported and real growth. The first measures growth in terms of market value; the second uses a price deflator to exclude the effects of inflation. To more accurately measure progress in world agriculture, and to distinguish sustain- able increases in food output from those that are not, a parallel ecological defla- tor is needed. Under theexisting economic ac- 1950 1960 1970 1990 counting system, food production can soar even while the agricultural prac- Fig-ure7.7.Win and Rice Production in India, tices followed are consuming the re- 1950-86 source base on which future production ing food staple before this century is out. depends. Without an ecological defla- A similar trend has emerged in China, tor, intelligent long-term planning is although it has not yet progressed as difficult,ifnotimpossible.When far.45 analyzing food production trends, for On other fronts, food securityis example, such a deflator would exclude deteriorating. Farmers, who have always food produced on cropland so prone to faced the uncertainties of weather, now erosion that it will not sustain cultiva- face the prospect of wrenching climate tion over the long term. Similarly,it change if atmospheric carbon dioxide would not include food produced by continues to rise. The projected rise in the pumping of irrigation water that ex- temperatures and shift in rainfall pat- ceeds aquifer recharge. terns over the next several decades will Althoughproductiononrecently dwarf any occurring since agriculture plowed, highly erodible land cannot be began. (See Chapter 9.) Heavy capital sustained, it does boost harvests tempo- outlays in irrigation and drainage will be rarily. As indicated, both the Soviet required to adjust to the new conditions. Union and the United States have been For the first time, many of the world's guilty of extensive overplowing. In fact, farmers will be investing heavily merely the 12-percent reduction in Soviet grain to sustain food output rather than to ex- area since 1978 has also lowered eco- pand it. nomic losses from failed harvests and Mounting external debt is a source of preserved the capacity to produce grass food insecurityin many developing on land that would otherwise have be- countries. For those living in the shadow come barren.46 of debt, the lack of external purchasing In the United States, national soil ero- power may have an even greater impact sion surveys in 1977 and 1982 showed thanreducedindividualpurchasing large areas of cropland losing topsoil at power. Even while food deficits are ex- a rate that would eventually render it panding, some countries are forced by useless. With the establishment of the indebtedness to curb imports. long-term conservation reserve in 1985,

1 5 Su.ciaining World Agriculture ('.37) efforts to conserve soil and to manage water table isfalling by at least six production were, for the first time, inte- inches, and in some casesup to several grated into a single program. The de- feet, per year on over 14 million of the tailed data used by Congress to draft this 36 million au es irrigated with ground- cropland retirement legislation provide water. When this land eventually reverts a basis for estimating the unsustainable to dryland farming or , as out- share of U.S. output due to excessive soil lined in the USDA study, grain produc- erosion. If 40 million of the 45 million tion will be reduced byan estimated 9 acres to be retired is in grain, and if the million tons.49 grain yield on this rapidly eroding land is two thirds of the nationalaverage (1.8 tons per acre), then the unsustainable output amounts to 48 million tons.47 Food production can soareven In addition to expanding food produc- while the agricultural practices fol- tion by mining the soil, some farmersare lowed are consuming theresource also mining underground watersup- base. plies, a process that yields dramatic short-run production gains. This deple- tion can take the form of usingwater Combining this figure with the grain from fossil sources or of withdrawing output on highly erodible land yieldsa water in excess of the aquifer recharge. total of 57 million tons of grainoutput The use of for irrigation per yearone sixth of recent U.S. grain often makes economic sense for individ- harvestsas unsustainableover the lorg ual farmers, though perhaps not for the term. This provides a way to compare taxpayers who are paying to idle adja- unsustainableU.S.grainoutputto cent rain-fed cropland under farm pro- growth in world grain carry-over stocks. grams. Between 1981, when world stocks to- Exactly how much food production is taled 227 million tons (57 days of world based on unsustainable uses of water is consumption) and1986, when they not known, but the practice issuffi- reached a price-depressing 339 million ciently widespread that any global cal- tons (87 days' worth), carry-over stocks culation of sustainable output would be increased by 112 million tons,or 22 mil- misleading if it were not included. In lion tons per year. This is far less than the case of land irrigated from the the unsustainable grain output of 57 mil- Ogallala, for example, the unsustain- lion tons produced peryear in the able output is the difference between United States alone. (See Table 7-8.) dryland yields and irrigated yields. For If the 1985 farm bill provi,'")I,s that the United States as a whole, roughlya restrict the plowing of high! dible fifth of all groundwater withdrawalsare land had been in effect much the in excess of aquifer recharge and thus current grain surplus might never have cannot be sustained.48 developed. And if in additionwater ta- Where food output is expandingas a bles were not being drawn down for irri- result of the overdrafting of rechargable gation, then instead of buildingup 22 aquifers, converting to a sustainable million tons of carry-over stocks each basis means reducing output byan year between 1981 and 1986, the cush- amount that will permit the water table ion would have been lower. Instead of to stabilize. A recent study by U.S. De- having 87 days' worth of consumption in partment of Agriculture (USDA) econo- storage, reserves would have been closer mist Gordon Sloggett reports that the to the lower end of the historical range. 154 (138) State of the World-1987 Table 7-8. Projected Reductions in Annual U.S. Grain Output as Unsuinable Use of Land and Water is Phased Out Source of Reduction Reduction (million metric tons) Grain Output on Highly Erodible Land Now Scheduled for Retirement Under 48 Food Security Act of 1985

Grain Output Reduction as Irrigation is Discontinued on Land wi Falling 9 Water Table

Total 57 souneEs; Worldwatch Institute estim based on U.S. Department of Agriculture data; Gordon SloggeR and Clifford Dickason. Ground-IVnter ng in the United Slates; David Pimentel, Energy Utilization in ilgricul. turf.

And the world grain market would be far has contributed to the halving of per stronger. capita food production since 1950.50 Rapidly eroding land everywhere will The use of this ecological deflator al- eventually be withdrawn from crop pro- lows a comparison of the trends in sus- duction either because national govern- tainable food production with projected ments follow the United States in divert- growth in world food demand. Unfortu- ing itto less eroding uses, such as nately, existing data do not permit a pre- grazing or firewood production, before cise worldwide measurement of the it loses all its topsoil, or because it no share of food output produced by the longer supports agriculture. Recent dra- unsustainable use of soil and water re- matic examples of cropland abandon- sources. Calculations for other countries ment can be seen in Ethiopia, where comparable to the ones made here for many of those living in the northern the United States would provide valu- provinceshavebecomeecological able insights into the long-term food refugees, and in Haiti, where topsoil loss prospect. Raising Agricultural Productivity Edward CIVo(f

After 20 years, the Green Revolution not been distributed evenly. Theaggre- stands as a touchstone in international gate statistics hide a large group who did agricultural development. Ata time not benefit from the new technologies: when famine seemed imminent,new va- subsistence farmers raising food for rieties of wheat and rice introducedto their families on marginal, rain-fed land. Asia and Latin America along with fer- High-yielding varieties of wheat and tilizers, pesticides, and mechanized farm rice have been introducedto less than a equipment dramatically increased har- third of the 423 million hectaresplanted vests. to cereal grains in the Third World. The Thisagriculturalstrategy,which rates of adoption vary widely by region: transformed the lives andprospects of 36 percent of the grainarea in Asia and hundreds of millions, is considered the the Middle East, 22 percent of Latin most successful achievement in interna- America's fields, and only Ipercent of tional development since the Marshall those in Africa grow improved varieties Plan and the reconstruction of Europe of wheat and rice. Other cropsbarley, following World War II. India, whose sorghum, potatoes, and especially maize food prospects formerly seemed bleak, have also been improved byresearch today holds grain reserves that provide and breeding, andnew varieties have insurance against famine. Indonesia, been distributed to farmers. Thelocal once the world's largest rice importer, is contributions of such advanceshave now self-sufficient and exports rice. been substantial. Butnone have yet had an effect on total food production, aver- But the agriculturalprogressthat made the Green Revolution possible has age productivity, and rural incomesas widespread and significantas the Green An expanded version of this chapter appearedas Revolution wheats and rices.1 Worldwatch Paper 73, Beyond the Green Rrvolution: The case for increasing yieldsremains Nrw Approaches for Third World Agriculture. as compelling today as it was agenera- 1 r 6 (140) Stale o orld-1987 Lion ago. Nearly 100 million people in yields in many staple crops. Third World Latin America, 280 million in Africa, and farmers cultivate poor soils under harsh over 990 million in Asia raise food under climates that require finely tuned agri- difficultconditionsatyieldslittle cultural practices. As rural populations changed since mid-century. But because grow, these farmers will need farming grain yields in more agriculturally ad- improvements that are labor-intensive, vanced regions are already near their bi- rather than capital- and energy-inten- ological ceilings, this group of nearly 1.4 sive. Such conditions demand research billion people in the Third World holds approaches different from those that the key to future increases in world food raised yields in the past. production.2 A new strategy of efficiency and regen- eration could help meet the needs of subsistence farmers, and begin to ad- There is as yet no research base for dress the environmental and economic achieving high yields in many sta- problems linked to more intensive crop- ping practices as well. Such a strategy ple crops. would stress the efficient use of fertil- izers, chemicals, water, and mechanized equipment. Supplementing this, farmers Over the next 13 years, world popula- could blend biological technologies and tion will expand from today's 5 billion to traditional farm practices to increase the 6.2 billion. Few analysts expect a signifi- contribution that the land's natural fer- cant increase in cultivated land by then. ility makes to food production. The op- ust to maintain current consumption portunities have never been greater for levels will require a 26-percent increase reaching the quarter of the world's peo- in average grain yields. And by 2020, pleand quarter of the world's cropland feeding the projected population of 7.8 left out of the Green Revolution. billion will require yields 56 percent higher than 1985 levels.3 Green Revolution approacheswill only be part of the answer for the 230 million families in Africa, Asia, and Latin America whose farming methods are al- PRODUCTIVITY most identical to those of their ances- RECONSIDERED tors. One reason is energy. Past ad- vances have come from increasing the The pursuit of productivity has been energy intensity of farming: fuel to run central to agriculture since farmers first machinery,fossil-fuel-basedartificial selected the wild grasses ancestral to fertilizers, and diesel fuel or electricity to today's crops. In recent years, harvests run irrigation pumps. Few of the rural have outpaced population growth, not poor can afford these costly materials only because more landhasbeen and services. Even if they had the income brought under the plow, but because to purchase such inputs, many farmers different plant varieties, more irrigation, are not served by roads or markets that newly available fertilizers, and improved could reliably supply them. tools and equipment have allowed farm- In addition, subsistence farmers grow ers to produce more from each hectare crops that have received comparatively of land and each hour worked. World little research attention. There is as yet grain production increased from 624 no research base for achieving high million metric tons in 1950 to 1,661 mil- 157 Raising Agricultural Produaivity lion tons in 1986, and the average yield cial fertilizers, and the regionsthat have per harvested hectare climbed from 1.1 used the most have reaped thelargest tons to 2.3 tons. These rapid increases benefits. have no precedent.4 (See Table 8-1.) Asia and North America, source of nearlyfour The postwar increase in yields rested fifths of additional world grain on a simple formula. Researchers and produc- tion, accounted for 56 percent of thein- extension agents encouraged farmersto crease in fertilizer use. North America's use more fertilizers, pesticides, and irri- average harvested area also expanded gation in combination with newly bred over this period, but virtually all the crop varieties. According to the conven- growth in Asian harvestscame from fer- tional approach, substituting thesecapi- tilizer. Yet Eastern Europe and theSo- tal- and energy-intensive inputs for the viet Union demonstrate that additional traditional resources of land and labor fertilizer does not necessarilymean pro- would allow farmers to expand harvests portionately larger harvests. Relying each year. on central planning rather than farmersto Enthusiasm for the conventionalpro- allocate fertilizer supplies accountedfor ductivity formula is understandable. The much of the inefficiency in this region. increase in world food production in the (See Chapter 10.) last decade has been associated witha Average grain yields in the world's comparable increase in the use of artifi- most populous countries reflect inpart Table 8-1. Increase in Average GrainProduction and Fertilizer Use, byRegion, Between 1970-74 and 1980-04

Grain Production Fertilizer Use Share of Share of Total World Total Region World Increase Increase Increase Increase (million metric tons) (percent) metric tons) (percent) Asia 200.3 55 19.2 45 North America 86.0 23 4.6 U Western Europe 9 2.8 7 Latin America 23,9 7 3,2 8 E. Eur. and Soviet Union 8.8 2 10.7 25

Oceania 8.4 0.6 Africa 8.2 2 1.5 3 World 366.9 100 4. r' 100 somtcEs: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research ServiceVorld Indices of Arricultu Production 1950-85 (unpublished printout) (Washington. and Food D.C.: 1986); U.N. Food and Agricuture Organi- zation, Fertilizer Yearbooks (Rome: 1982 and1989). 158 (142) State of theWorld-1987 variations in rainfall and , but The first step most countries can take they also illustrate the productivity gap to increase harvests is to correct the that must be closed in the effort to raise inefficient application of chemical fertil- the world's average yield above 2.3 tons izers. Even China's high grain yield con- per hectare. The 11 countries shown in ceals a substantial opportunity to ex- Table 8-2 are home to nearly two thirds pandtotalharvestsbydistributing of the world's population and represent fertilizers more equitably to Chinese the entire economic and ecological spec- farmers. China's remarkable increase in trum. Slightly fewer than a third of the food production from less than 200 mil- world's people live in four countries lion tons in the mid-seventies to over where land productivity, measured as 300 million tons by 1985 was made pos- tons of grain harvested per hectare of sible in large part by an equally dramatic agricultural land, exceeds 33 tons, well increase in fertilizer use.5 above the world average. Another third By 1983, Chinese farmers were apply- live in the five countries where produc- ing 115 kilograms of artificial fertilizers tivity is less than 2 tons per hectare. Al- per hectare planted, about as much as though the highest yields occur in afflu- U.S. farmers. But according to Bruce entindustrialnations,Chinaand Stone of the International Food Policy Indonesia demonstrate that low income Research Institute, most of this was des- need not be associated with low yields. tined for just a third of Chinese crop- land, in the country's most fertile and Table 8-2. Land Productivity in World's most market-oriented areas. Adding an- 11 Most Populous Countries, 1985 other sack of fertilizer to these fields now produces much less additional grain Average than fertilizing neglected areas. Using Country Grain Yield Population fertilizer on the other two thirds of Chi- (tons per nese cropland could yield 3 to 15 times hectare) (million) more grain per ton of additional fertil- Japan 5,8 122 izer than the state and market-oriented United States 4.8 241 farms could produce under the existing China 3.9 1,050 distribution system.° 3.7 168 Another reason for using fertilizer Indonesia more efficiently is the high environmen- Bangladesh 2,2 104 tal costs linked to heavy use. Govern- 2.1 82 ment subsidies in Europe, Japan, and Mexico North America encourage farmers to ex- pand production by applying more fer- Brazil 1,8 143 785 tilizerthan either sound agronomic India 1.6 practices or world market conditions Pakistan 1.6 102 warrant. One result is that as much as Soviet Union 1.6 280 one fourth of the nitrogen fertilizers into 0.8 105 usedintheseregionsleaches Nigeria groundwater. Increasing concentrations 3,182 of nitrates in drinking water, which pose Total Population a health threat to bottle-fed infants, have souRcEs:Population Reference Bureau,1985 been reported in Denmark, France, the World Population Data Sheri (Washington, D.C.: Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and 1985);U.S. Department of Agriculture, World In- dices of Agricultural and Food Production 1950-85 (un- West Germany. Ironically, at the levels published printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1966). of fertilizer applied by European farm-

159 Raising Agricu ral Productivity (z4.3) ers, as much as 30 to 45 kilograms of the excess that remains in the soilcan nitrogen may be lost per hectaremore help nourish a subsequent graincrop. fertilizer than is applied to cropland in Soil scientist David Bezdicek and his many Third World countries.7 colleagues at Washington State Univer- Farmers in Africa, Latin America, and sity have found that residual nitrogen Oceania have used the least additional from artificial fertilizer can reduce the fertilizer and contributed leastto ex- amount of nitrogen fixed by a legume panded food supplies. In Latin America, crop such as chick-peas. A heavy dose of the challenge of managingenormous ex- fertilizer applied at the start of thegrow- ternal debts has forced many countries ing season suppresses biological activity, to curtail imports of fertilizers inan while in some cases a smallamount of effort to conserve foreign exchangefor fertilizer can actually stimulate nitrogen interest payments. In Africa, few farmers fixation. More nitrogen might besup- can afford conventional fertilizers, and plied by the correct balance of artificial limited water supplies often make them fertilizer and biological nitrogen fixation unprofitable. Yet, African and Latin than by using artificial fertilizers alone.") American farmers need to expand food production, which has fallen behind population growth in both regions. Biological approaches Using additional fertilizermore effi- can help ciently would help, but these farmers poor farmers better cope with the also need less costly alternativesto the risks imposed by erratic rainfall conventional methods of raising produc- and less fertile soils. tivity. Correcting inefficiencies in theuse of purchased resources is not the onlyway The regenerative approach seeksto to raise and sustain agricultural produc- maximize such biological contributions tivity. Farmers have another set ofassets to agricultural productivity. It makes the that U.S. publisher Robert Rodale has most of natural sources of nitrogen, aptly labeled the -internal resources" of phosphorus, and potash, as wellas the agriculture: the inherent fertility of the way these nutrients are cycled andcon- soil, rainfall and climatepatterns, the served in natural ecosystems. Regenera- dynamics of pest populations and their tive farming practices include sowing natural enemiesin other words, the different crops together touse fully the natural resource base. The productive soil's fertility, rotating food grainswith potential of these internalresources is nitrogen-fixing legumes, and planting sometimes masked or even diminished trees and shrubs whose roots draw nutri- by heavy use of artificial fertilizers and ents from deep soil layers to the surface. other farm chemicals.6 Purchased fertilizers and pesticidesare -The rapid introduction of external used sparingly in these practices. Al- inputs into agricultural productionover though regenerative methods require the past century has unnecessarily di- more careful farm management, they minished the strength, vitality, anduse- are less costly than conventionalap- fulness of the internalresources of proaches." farmers," Rc dale argues.° Researchon Agricultural research that emphasizes nitrogen fixal ion by legumes shows how biological approaches w raising produc- thi can happen. Microorganisms in the tivity can help poor farmers bettercope roots of these crops convert nitrogen with the risks imposed by erratic rainfall from the air into a form plants can use; and less fertile soils. Conventionalagri- 160 State of the World-1987 cultural modernization, based on fossil Million fuels, will remain beyond the means of Hectares many Third World farmers. Offered bet- 40 ter methods for managing the internal Source: LIS Agency resources of agriculture, these farmers for Intl. Devel, can reduce their vulnerability to crop '30 failure and famine.

20

BEYOND THE GREEN REVOLUTION Two decades have passed since new, high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice 1970 1975 1980 1985 were introduced to farmers in Mexico, the Middle East, and South Asia. The Figure 8-1. Area Planted to High-Yielding new types, more responsive to artificial Varieties of Wheat in South Asia, 1965-82 fertilizers and irrigation than traditional the area planted to those crops ex- ones,"spreadmorewidely,more panded by only 20 percent. The ability quickly, than any other technological in- to harvest two crops a year with the new novation in the in seeds contributed to these increases. In the developing countries,- according to 1980, the additional wheat and rice pro- Dana Dalrymple of the U.S. Agency for duced by Green Revolution technolo- International Development.12 gies was worth an estimated $56 billion, Modernvarietiesof wheatwere of which $10 billion was due to the im- quickly taken up by farmers in Bangla- proved genetic potential of the new va- desh, India, and Pakistan. (Sce Figure rieties, This expansion of the food sup- 8-1.) New rice seeds spread just as ply has been crucial to many countries rapidly throughout Southeast Asia. In with rapidly growing populations.14 Latin America, the area planted to new Africa has benefited least from the wheat and rice varieties increased from Green Revolution. Few of Africa's 50 270,000 hectares in 1970 to 9.6 million million rural families grow wheat or rice, hectares by 1983. By the mid-eighties, and only in the last decade have re- roughly half the wheat area and nearly searchers turned their attention to mil- 58 percent of the rice area of all develop- let, sorghum, cassava, yams, and cow- ing countries had been sown to high- peasthe subsistence staples of most yielding varieties. In major wheat- and rural Africans. Only 6 percent of sub- rice-growing regions, the percentages Saharan Africa's wheat and rice area is are far higher: Eighty-two percent of planted to modern varieties. Improved Latin America's wheat area and 95 per- maize varieties and hybrids have boosted cent of China's rice area were planted to harvests in such countries as Kenya, tnese Green Revolution products in South Africa, and Zimbabwe, but on the 1983.13 whole scientific plant breeding has not The amount of rice and wheat grown decisively changed the continent's food in developing countries increased 75 prospects.15 percent between 1965 and 1980, while High-yielding varieties of wheat and

161 Raising Ag-ricu a/ Productivity (i45) ricearestillspreading,however. (CGIAR). The centers' agenda today Though the early Green Revolution covers 21 food crops, conservation of seeds were planted almost exclusively by the genetic resources used for plant farmers with well-irrigated land who breeding, and live- could afford to purchase thenecessary stock diseases, and policy issues related supplements of fertilizers and pesticides, to agricultural research.17 modern varieties are now grown by A high priority of the CGIARcenters farmersunderless-favoredcircum- is defending the gains already achieved. stances. More than half the high-yielding Farmers who currently plant high-yield- wheat in Bangladesh is watered only by ing varieties of wheat and rice need the rain, as is about 85 percent of the high- results of continuous researchto sustain yielding rice in the Philippines. Varieties theiryields.This "maintenance re- bred and released today perform better search- emphasizes breedingnew vari- than traditional varieties even without eties to increase crops' natural abilityto costly inputs.16 resist pests and disease. Maintainingsta- The scientists who developed thenew ble yields at high levelscan be a more varieties of wheat and ricenever ex- complex task than raising yields in the pected their work to provide anopen- first place. Having varietieson hand to ended solution to the world's food prob- replace old ones that succumb topests lems. Many believedthatthe new and disease requires a vast breedingpro- technologies offered a means to buy gram and extensive system of gene time until population growth rates could banks.18 be slowed. Harvests could not increase National and international research indefinitely; birth rates would haveto programs are also turning to a new chal- fall. Twenty years later, countries like lengedeveloping crops and technolo- China that both promoted new seeds and gies for farmers who do not irrigate their ituted economic reforms andna- fields and who lack the incometo pur- tionalfamily planning programsto chase fertilizers and pesticides. The rice- lower birth rates have done themost to breeding agenda at IRRI illustrates the improve the welfare of their people. shift in research priorities that will help A unique research network launched this group. In the sixties, the effortto in Mexico by the Rockefeller Foundation raise yields of irrigated rice ledto IR-8, in 1943 may be a more significant contri- IRRI's first widely planted high-yielding bution of the Green Revolution than the variety. When IR-8 began to experience expanded harvests achieved so far. Sup- serious pest infestation, breeders sought ported by the Rockefeller and Ford a wider variety of agronomic traits. Foundations, plant breeders developed IR-36 combined high yield with broad new varieties appropriate for conditions geneticresistancetopests,andit in India, Mexico, Pakistan, and Turkey. matured even more quickly than earlier Success in these countries led to thecre- varieties, permitting twocrops to be har- ation of the Philippines-based Interna- vested each year.19 tional Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in IRRI's next successfulricestrain, 1962, the International Center for the 1R-64, was selected both for its resist- Improvement of Maize and Wheatnear ance to pests and disease and for its Mexico City in 1965, and ultimatelya more flavorful grain. In the eighties, system of 13 international agricultural breeders have further expanded their research centers funded through the goals, developing rice varieties suitedto Washington-based Consultative Group adverse growing conditionsvarieties on International Agricultural Research that will be profitable for marginal and 162 (146) State of theorldI987 disadvantaged farmers. IRRI's breeding tributed to researchers all over the world goals have evolved from a nearly exclu- for testing." sive emphasis on achieving peak yields A range of other food crops is begin- with inputs of water and fertilizer to de- ning to receive deserved research atten- pendable production under a range of tion. Wheat and rice tend to be grown farming conditions. under relatively homogeneous condi- tions. Breeders of these crops drew on an enormous backlog of improved Systematic work on cassava and wheats and rices already available in cowpeas in West Africa or potatoes japan and North America,varieties whose pedigrees predated World War in the Andes is little more than a II. By contrast, improving the staple decade old. crops widely grown in Africa, and the potatoes, yams, and legumes grown throughout the Third World, is a much In addition to appropriate crop vari- more challenging task. Such crops grow eties, poor farmers need alternative under widely divergent conditions, and sources of plant nutrients. IRRI has have no comparable history of improve- begun to investigate opportunities to ment. Systematic work on cassava and substitute farm-grown nutrient sources cowpeas in West Africa or potatoes in for purchased artificial fertilizers. Prom- the Andes is little more than a decade ising approaches for Asian farmers in- old. cludethenitrogen-fixing blue-green Efforts to raise the productivity of all algae associated with a fern called Azolla staple crops depend on gathering a wide microphylla that thrives in flooded rice range of traditional varieties, crop rela- paddies, and types of bacteria that could tives, and wild plants for breeding. enhance soil fertility. Chinese farmers Breeders need this genetic sampling to already use some of these methods quite select the traits that strengthen resist- successfully, and researchers in the Phil- ance to pests and disease, and to tailor ippines have found that farmers who crops to grow under varied ecological grew A. microphylla in their paddies were conditions. Collecting and storing crop able to halve their use of purchased fer- germplasm, coordinated by the interna- tilizers without lowering yields.20 tional Board for Plant Genetic Re- Such innovations are not restricted to sources (IBPGR), is now a major respon- Asia. Scientists at the International Insti- sibility of all the international centers. tute of Tropical Agriculture in Nigeria IBPGR has initiated genetic resources have identified a leguminous African programs in 50 countries, and national shrub called Sesbania rostrata that may committees concerned with conserva- prove to be a low-cost nitrogen source tion of germplasrn have been set up in for African rice farmers. Research in Co- over two dozen others.22 lombia indicates that farmers can cut For most major food crops, germ- their needs for phosphate fertilizers in plasm collections of modern and tradi- half by using certain fungi that help tional crop varieties are impressively plant roots absorb phosphorus. IRRI re- broad. (See Table 8-3.) Except for cently created the International Biofer- wheat, however,scientists have not tilizer Germplasrn Conservation Center thoroughly investigated or collected the at its Philippines headquarters, where wild relatives of these crops. The unique promising microbial sources of plant nu- genetic combinations of wild crop rela- trients can be evaluated, stored, and dis- tives are often lost as modern varieties

163 Raising Agricultural Productivity (147) Table 8-3. Estimated Germplasm Samples table crop native to the Americas that is Collected for Major Food Crops and both nutritious and drought-tolerant, Coverage of Traditional Varieties and may prove better-suited than conven- Wild Species tional crops to the environmental and economic conditions facing many Third Distinct Share of Diversity World farmers.23 Accessions Collected The network of international research in MajorTraditionalWild centers will not be the wellspring of work Crop Genebanks VarietiesSpecies on promising but unproven crops. By usands) their charters, the centers are instructed (percent) to work on the most widely grown food Wheat 125 95 60 crops. Research efforts focus on those with proven potential and regions where Rice 70 70 10 the return to research investment is likely to be high. But restricting research Maize 60 90 n.a. to familiar crops may foreclose some im- portant agricultural opportunities. Barley 50 40 10 Naturalist Gary Paul Nabhan, who has studied traditional food and medicinal Sorghum 20 80 10 plants native to the Sonoran desert in the southwestern United States, believes Potato 30 95 n.a. that research on unconventionalcrops may be as valuable for insights on how to Cowpea 12 75 1 manage familiar crops as for novel agro- souRce: Adapted from Consultative Group on In- nomic possibilities. He writes, -By eval- ternational Agricultural Research, "International uating native desert plants as potential Agricultural Research Centers: Achievements and Potential" (unpublished draft). Washington. D.C., economic resources, and comparing August 1985. them with conventional crops,we stand to learn something about the tradeoffs and replace traditional between short-term productivity and farming methods. Wild speciesmay hold long-term persistence in unpredictable keys to improvements in the productivity environments."24 of crops such as sorghum andcowpeas Independent research centers havean that are especially crucial to Africa's important role to play in pursuing the food prospects. agricultural opportunities that fall out- side the mainstream of internationalre- Most of the world's food is supplied by search. The privately funded Rodale a handful of crops that our neolithic Research Center in Pennsylvania coordi- ancestors selected millennia ago. While nates worldwide research on amaranth farming technologies have advanced and maintains a germplasm collection of steadily, there have been few significant 1,300 samples from Asia and Latin botanical innovations since the origins America. Scientists at Rodale andat the of agriculture. Most internationalre- Land Institute in Kansas are investigat- search deals with just 16 widelygrown ing perennial grain polyculturesas pos- crops, although at least 3,000 plants sible alternatives to today's annualcorn have been used for food at one timeor and wheat monocultures, particularly another in history. Crops like teff,a for marginal lands. Agriculture basedon hardy grass grown as a staple grain in perennials, though probably decades Ethiopia, or amaranth, a grain and vege- away, would offer several advantages 164 (148) State he World-.-! 987 over current practices, including re- sistence were swept aside. A report by duced soil erosion, simplified weed con- U.S. President Lyndon Johnson's Sci- trol, improved water management, and ence Advisory Committee warned in enhanced soil fertility. Understanding 1966 that -the very fabric of traditional perennial-based cropping practices societies must be rewoven if the situa- could shed new light on how to reduce tion is to change permanently."26 the environmental impact of more con- Agricultural scientists have recently ventional farming practices.25 begun to recognize that many farming New crop varieties and technologies systems that have persisted for millennia for farmers in developing countries will exemplify careful management of soil, be essential in the years ahead. Biotech- water, and nutrients, precisely the meth- nologies may provide the next genera- ods required to make high-input farming tion of seeds to farmers left out of the practicessustainable.Thisoverdue Green Revolution. But to avoid the envi- reappraisal stems in part from the need ronmental and social costs associated to use inputs more efficiently, and in part with the last generation of agricultural from the growing interest in biological technologies, tomorrow's innovations technologies. The complex challenge of will have to be more consistent with re- Africa's food crisis in the early eighties gional agricultural traditions and better forced scientists to look more closely at the methods used by peasant farmers. matched to the ecological context into Many researchers today seek to "im- which they are introduced. prove existing farming systems rather than attempting to transform them in a major way," according to William Lieb- hardt,Director of Researchatthe Rodale Research Center.27 REDISCOVERING Traditional farming systems face real TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURE agronomic limits, and can rarely com- pete ton for harvested ton with high- Agricultural research has been need- input modern methods. It is important lessly hindered for two decades by to recognize these limitations, for they pejorative attitudes toward traditional determine both how traditional practices farming. Some scientists assumed that can be modified and what such practices because peasant farmers produced low can contribute to the effort to raise agri- grain yields, their practices had little rel- cultural productivity. evance to twentieth-century agriculture. First, most traditional crop varieties Until recently, few researchers recog- have limited genetic potential for high nized the ecological and agronomic grain yields. They are often large-leaved strengths of traditional practices that and tall, for example. These traits help bad allowed farmers over the centuries farmers meet nonfood needs, supplying to maintain the land's fertility. In pursuit thatch, fuel, and fodder as well as food to of higher productivity, many agricultural farm households. Traditional varieties scientists overlooked the need for long- respond poorly to the two elements of term sus tainability. agronomic management that make high The food crisis in India and through- grain yields possible: dense planting and out Asia in the late sixties lent a sense of artificial fertilizer.25 urgency to efforts to promote the Green Second, peasant farmers often have to Revolution. The strengths of traditional plant in soils with serious nutrient defici- practices and the reasons for their per- encies, where crop combinations and ro-

165 Raising Agricultural Productivity 0491 tations are needed to help offset the lim- grain yields are often highest underan itations. Many tropicalsoils,forin- acacia's crown.31 stance, lack sufficient nitrogen to sustain Fields that include acacia treespro- a robust crop. Soils in vast areas of duce more grain, supportmore live- semiarid Africa arc deficient in phospho- stock, and require shorter fallow periods rus. High-yielding varieties, more effi- between crops than fields sown to grain cient in converting available nutrients only. Acacia naturally enhances produc- into edible grain, can rapidly deplete soil tivity by retnrning organic matterto the nutrients if they are planted in monocul- topsoil, dr ig nutrients from deep soil tures by peasant farmers who cannot layers to thurface, and changing soil purchase supplemental fertilizers." texture so that rainwater infiltrates the Traditionalagriculture,practiced topsoil more readily. All of these ben- underbiologicalandphysicallim- efits make farming on marginal lands itations, often breaks down undergrow- more productive and profitable without ing population pressure. As ruralpopu- requiring the farmer to purchase fertil- lations grow, farmers try tosqueeze izers year after year." more production from existing fields, Equallyimportant,such improve- often accelerating the loss of fertility. Or ments in soil structure, organic matter they may cultivate new, marginal,or content, water-holding capacity, and bi- sloping land that is vulnerableto soil ological nitrogen fixation allow themost erosion and unsuited to farming. productive application of conventional Nonetheless, traditional methods can fertilizers. Programs promoting acacia- make animportant contributionto based could complement efforts to raise agricultural productivity. fertilizer extension in semiarid countries They offer what Gerald Marten of the with agroforestry playing a role analo- East-West Center in Hawaii calls "prin- gous to irrigation. Governments with ciples of permanence.- They use fewex- modest fertilizer-promotionprograms ternal inputs, accumulate and cyclenatu- may find that they can maximize the ben- ral nutrients effectively, protect soils, efits of fertilizers by promoting agrofor- and rely on genetic diversity. "Neither estry as well." modern Western agriculturenor indige- nous traditional agriculture,intheir present forms, are exactly what will be In the Sahel, grain yields needed by most small-scale farmers,- are often notes Marten. "The challenge for agri- highest under an acacia'scrown. cultural research is to improve agricul- ture in ways that retain the strengths of traditional agriculture while meeting the Legume-based crop rotations andtra- needs of changing times."s° ditional intercropping systems husband Farming methods like the traditional organic material and nutrients much agroforestry systems of West Africa's more carefully than do modern mono- Sahel region offer improvements inwa- culture practices. While organicma- ter-use efficiency and soil fertility that nures and composts contribute signifi- subsistence farmers can afford. Sahelian cant amounts of nutrients in their own farmers traditionally planted theirsor- right, they can, like agroforestry, also ghum and millet crops in fields inter- magnifythecontributionofsmall spersed with a permanent intercrop of amounts of artificial fertilizers. Aca,ia albida trees. Acacia trees fix nitro- Research in Burkina Faso illustrates gen and improve the soil. In the Sahel, the complementary effect. (See Table

1136 ( 15 Stale o World-1987 8-4.) This study looked at the contribu- sign of agricultural systems to make the tions of straw, manure, and compost to most of sunlight, soil nutrients, and rain- sorghum yields with and without the ad- fall. dition of small amounts of artificial ni- Shifting cultivation practices, such as trogen. The results showed that the bush-fallow methods in Africa, demon- most productive organic method, apply- strate how farmers can harness the ing compost, increased sorghum yields land'snaturalregeneration. Farmers from 1.8 tons per hectare to 2.5 tons. using bush7fallow systems clear fields by Artificial fertilizer alone produced grain burning off the shrubs and trees. Ashes yields slightly higher than any of the or- fertilize the first crop. After a couple of ganic practices. But the best result was seasons, as nutrients are depleted, har- achieved by combining compost with ar- vests begin to decline, so farmers aban- tificialfertilizer;thisraised sorghum don the field and move on to clear new yields to 3.7 tons per hectare. The three land. Natural regeneration takes over; organic practices increased the efficiency shrubs and trees gradually reseed the of nitrogen application by 20 to 30 per- field, returning nutrients to the topsoil cent. Given responsive crop varieties and restoring the land's inherent fertil- and small amounts of artificial fertilizer, ity. After 15-20 years, the land can be traditional practices that cycle organic burned and cultivated again.35 materials effectively would raise yields in The bush-fallow system has obvious the same manner.51 limitations. It requires enormous Intercropping, agroforestry, shifting amounts of land, and when population cultivation, and other traditional farm- growth pushes farmers to return too ing methods mimic natural ecological quickly to abandoned fields, serious en- processes, and the sustainability of many vironmental deterioration can result. traditional practices lies in the ecological Declining land productivity in crowded models they follow. This use of natural countries like Rwanda is testimony to analogies suggests principles for the de- this danger. But even disintegrating sys-

Table 8-4. Burkina Faso: Complementary Effect of Artificial and Organic Fertilizers on Sorghum Yields, 1981 Sorghum Yield Without With Artificial Treatment Artificial Fertilizer Fertilizer! (metric tons per hectare) No Organic Treat ent 1.8 2.8

Sorghum Straw2 1.6 3.4

Manure2 2.4 3,6

Compost2 2.5 3.7 At 60 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare. TAllorganic materials applied at a rate of 10 tons per hectare. souacE: M. Sedogo, "Contribution A la Valorisation des Residus Culturaux en Sol Ferrughwux et Sous Climat Semi-aride (doctoral thesis), Nancy, France, ENSA1A, 1981, quoted in Herbert W. Ohm and Joseph G. Nagy, eds.,Appropriate Teclawlogirs far Farmen in Semi-Arid Iresi Africa(West Lafayette, Ind.: Purdue University International Programs in Agriculture. 1985).

167 Raising Agricultural Productivity (i 51) tems offer a basis for designing produc- constitutes a founda ionupon which tive and sustainable farming practices. science can build. Researchers at the Nigeria-based In- ternational Institute of Tropical Agricul- ture, for instance, have adapted the principles of natural regenerationin bush-fallow systems to a continuous-cul- tivation agroforestry system called alley TOWARD APPROPRIATE cropping. Field crops aregrown between BIOTECHNOLOGY rows of nitrogen-fixing trees; foliage from the trees enhances the soil organic Most agricultural innovations of thepast matter, while nitrogen fixed in root have been based on gradual refinements nodules increases soil fertility. A high of technologies known at least sincethe level of crop production is possible with- Industrial Revolution and insome cases out a fallow interval. Traditional shifting since the dawn of farming. But the1953 cultivation provided the model for this discovery of the structure of DNAand system." the 1973 development of recombinant DNA (gene-splicing) techniquesprom- ise to change irretrievably the familiar Biotechnologies may offer cheaper of agricultural development. and quicker ways to improve Third Biotechnologies based on these insights World staples. allow scientists to identify thegenes that control certain physical traits andto combine the genes of distantly relatedor unrelated plants and animalstwobar- Traditional practices exemplify effi- riers that conventional plant breeders ciency and the regenerative approachto could never overcome. Many analysts agricultural development. Yet untilre- believe that agricultural applications of cently, a kind of myopia has kept there- biotechnology will marka watershed in search community from recognizing the the effort to raise productivity. opportunities for agricultural innova- From 1920 to 1950, agriculture in in- tions that lie in traditional practices.In dustrial countries was dominated byme- West Africa, for example, 70-80percent chanical technologies that dramatically of the cultivated area issown to combi- increased the amount of food produced nations of crops in traditional intercrop- per worker and per hour. Shortly after ping systems. Cowpeas,one of Africa's World War II, the mechanicalage gave most widely grown food staples, are al- way to the chemical age as farmers ways planted as an intercrop. But only worldwide began to adopt artificialfer- about 20 percent of the research effort in tilizers and synthetic chemicalpesti- sub-Saharan Africa focuseson inter- cides. Biotechnologies shift thefocus of cropping.37 research toward crop plants themselves. As these African examples show,re- They have inaugurateda new era of agri- searchers can use traditional principles culture likely to reshape research, devel- to develop new techniques thatpre- opment assistance, and farmers' choices. serve the land's stability and productiv- Biotechnologies may offer cheaper and ityevenaspopulationsincrease. quicker ways to improve Third World Though traditional methods havelim- stapiesincluding millet,cassava, and itations, they are not archaic practices yamsthan the costly innovations ofthe to be swept aside. Traditional farming mechanical and chemical eras.38 168 (152) State otheVorld----1987 The new technology encompasses an enacting regulations that guard against array of tools and applications that allow the uncertainties will slow the marketing researchers to manipulate the genetic of commercial biotechnology products material of plants, microbes, and ani- to industrial-country farmers.39 mals. These methods provide ways to The genetic engineering of plants is modifythecharacteristicsthatare far harder than modifying microbes, but passed from one generation to the next. it is also less controversial on environ- The vaccines, antibiotics, and reproduc- mental grounds. Crops with modified tive technologies created through bio- traits are under a farmer's direct control, technology and genetic engineering are and their reproduction and spread in the alreadyrevolutionizinganimalhus- environment are both slower and more bandry. Biotechnologies are not yet as predictable. Crop characteristicslike widely applied to cultivated crops, in drought-tolerance, ability to withstand part because scientists understand less salty water, and pest resistancethe about plant genetics and physiology traits that have always concerned breed- than about domestic animals. ersare a likely focus of the new tech- Technical hurdles are not the only nologies. constraints on agricultural applications Thus, the major applications of bio- of biotechnology. So far, advances have technologies to Third World crops will been made in industrial countries, where complement rather than replace conven- public scrutiny is intense. The environ- tional plant breeding. Developing new mental risks posed by releasing gene- crop varieties can be an extraordinarily spliced microbes or plants into the envi- laborious and intricate process. Identify- ronment remain poorly understood. ing desirable characteristics, crossing The development of regulations and parents, planting and growing the first guidelines for the newly emerging tech- generation of the cross, selecting the nologies has led to a contentious public progeny that have the right mix of debate about genetic engineering. desired traits, and refining those charac- teristics through further breeding and screening can easily take a decade or Biotechnologies that affect agricul- longer. Conventional breeding of a new variety of wheat may involve thousands ture in the years ahead will have a of carefully selected crosses. decidedly private-sector cast. By contrast, tissue culture, gene trans- fer, and other genetic techniques allow much of this work to be done in the labo- In the United States, concerns have ratory, because researchers can manipu- centered on proposals to release bacte- late single cells rather than entire plants. ria modified to retard the formation of This saves space and time. Gene-splicing frost on strawberry and potato plants. techniques permit researchers to trans- Because the bacteria could reproduce in fer only specific traits into a crop. Such the natural environment and thus spread precision can help reduce the need to beyond thefields where they were identify and eliminate full-grown plants released, predicting environmental im- carrying undesired genetic baggagea pacts is both more crucial and more problem when distantly related species complex a task than with many other or varieties are crossed. technologies. Developing the predictive Given the ability to modify virtually ecology that critics say is necessary for any plant characteristic and to tailor thorough environmentalreview and plants in precisely defined ways, biotech-

163 Raising Agrkultu I Productivity (z53) nology would seem to offer tools well- for small farmers to protect fiagile tropi- suitedtoagriculturaldevelopment cal soils. Yet in both industrial and de- strategies that emphasize resource effi- veloping countries, the soil andenergy- ciency and farming's internalresources. saving benefits of conservation tillage According to the U.S. Office of Technol- could be offset by the hazards of in- ogy Assessment, "Most emerging tech- creased reliance on chemical herbicides nologies are expected to reduce substan- if herbicide-resistant seedsare widely tially the land and water requirements planted.42 for meeting future agricultural needs?"4° The most significant influenceon the For example, it should eventually be direction of agricultural biotechnology possible to modify a plant's physiology is the rapid shift of research from the to improve its efficiency in photosynthe- public to the private sector. This isespe- sis, enabling grains to producemore car- cially evident in the United States. For bohydrates, and thus higher yields. The nearly a century, public agriculturalex- adaptations that allow some plants to periment stations and landgrant univer- lose very little water through their leaves skies sponsored by the U.S. Department in transpiration, transferredto more of Agriculture (USDA) performedmost widely grown crops, could reduce irriga- agricultural research. Private seedcom- tion needs. panies often used the plant varieties Nothing in the nature of biotechnolo- developed by government-supported gies renders them inherently appropri- breeders. Over the last three decades, ate to a strategy of efficiency and regen- however, the private sector has assumed eration, however. Many biotechnology control of research efforts. Privatecom- innovations pose trade-offs rather than panies now perform two thirds of U.S. clear-cut benefits. One such trade-off agricultural research.43 centers around herbicide resistance, a In biotechnology, the deck is stacked relatively uncomplicated genetic trait even more in favor of the private sector. that is therefore an attractive research USDA's Agricultural Research Service target. Researchers have already put and Cooperative State Research Service considerable effort into developingcrop support most public work. in agricultural plants that resist herbicides, allowing biotechnology, and these two federal farmeri to apply more of these chemi- programs spent less than $90 million on cals. Much of this work is suppo7ted by biotechnologyresearchin1984-85. the chemical companies that market her- Monsanto, which has the largest but by bicides." no means the only plant biotechnology Herbicides now playmajor role in research program among private U.S. industrial-country farming. High fuel corporations, has already invested $100 costs and the need to conserve soil have million in agricultural biotechnology de- prompted U.S. farmers to adoptre- velopment. Biotechnologies that affect duced-tillage practices on 42 million agriculture in the years ahead will havea hectares. These methods, which involve decidedly private-sector cast. With the less plowing and leave topsoil covered exceptions of mechanization and the de- with crop residues, rely on herbicides velopment of hybrid corn, that hasnot rather than cultintion to control weeds. generally been true of important innova- Conservation tillagcis also being ad- tions in agriculture." vocated for the Third World; scientists Leaving research priorities to themar- at the International Institute for Tropi- ketplace may eclipse promisingoppor- cal Agriculture are investigatingmore la- tunities. Research effortson crops will bor-intensive forms of these practices be proportional to the value of thecrop 170 (I51) State of the Wor1d-1987 and the size of the market. Because im- liquid fuels and industrial chemicals, and proving crops for small farmers in devel- to develop food-processing industries oping countries means producing low- with biotechnology methods. According cost agronomic innovations, many of to W.G. Padolina, of the National Insti- which must be site-specific and thus not tute of Biotechnology and Applied Mi- suitable for mass-marketing, crop im- crobiology at the University of the Phil- provement for the vast majority of the ippines, "The national strategyisto world's farmers offers little profit. Few transformbiomassbiologicallyinto private companies are likely to enter food, fuel, fertilizers, and chemicals."46 such an unpromising market. Conse- Achieving these goals is certain to be quently, investigations of minor crops costly. Few countries can afford the in- like sorghum and millet, grown primar- vestment in equipment that major bio- ily by Third World subsistence farmers, technology programs entail, and some will be neglected. lack sufficient numbers of trained scien- The private-sector domination of bio- tists to staff such programs. Agricultural technology raises questions about the biotechnology contrasts sharply in this role new technologies will play in inter- regard with conventional plant breeding nationalresearchprograms.Private programs, which require relatively mot-l- companies may become competitors est capital investments. with the CGIAR-sponsored centers, par- Biotechnologies offer promising tools ticularly when it comes to improvements for more resource-efficient and sustain- in major, widely traded crops such a..; able agriculture. Technical hurdles must wheat and rice. The full exchange of be overcome and environmental risks scientific information that is essential to evaluated before that potential can be the international centers may be cur- realized. But more troublesome from tailed if it appears to compromise pro- the standpoint of Third World agricul- prietary corporate research. Moreover, ture is the degree to which the private international centers may increasingly sector will dominate agricultural bio- have to purchase or license new tech- technologies. An expanded commitment nologies that were formerly freely avail- to public research, at both the national able through public channels. Finally, and international levels,is needed to private firms will compete with the cen- research ters for scientific talent, and the centers correctdistortionsof the may be unable to match the salaries, agenda and ensure that Third World pri- facilities, and security that corporate orities command attention. laboratories offer.45 Uncertainties cloud the prospects for nationalbiotechnology programsas well. A few developing countries, nota- bly Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thai- TWO-WAY TECHNOLOGY land, have established national pro- TRANSFER gramsinagriculturalbiotechnology. The Philippines views its program as the The sense of urgency with which the firststep toward an industrialization Green Revolution was launched has strategy based on biological materials largely disappeared from international that can help free the country from de- agricultural development efforts. That pendence on imported oil. Philippine several developing countries, formerly scientists hope to use crop residues and food importers, now have achieved food by-products as raw materials to produce self-sufficiency has led some policymak-

171 Raising Agricu tu Produc y ('55) ers to question the value of assisting much of the work that led to the Green poor countries to raise production fur- Revolution, can help kindle interest in ther. new research priorities. In 1983, the But for Third World farmers who Rockefeller Foundation redirectedits never shared in the agricultural ad- program in agricultural sciences to em- vances of the Green Revolution, the phasize biotechnology researchon rice, issue is economic survival. Only by hus- the grain of least interest to private firms banding their scarce resources,regen- in industrial countries. And in 1986, the erating their land, and raising their foundation outlined a new agenda that yields can these farmers improve their included plans to extend biotechnology economic prospects. The reorientation research to the improvement ofsor- of agricultural research and develop- ghum, millet, and other neglected staple ment assistance needed to meet their food cropspartly to counterbalance needs has begun, but it deservesmore the private-sector emphasison more attention and support. widely grown commercial crops.49 One bellwether of trends in interna- The public research agenda cancom- tional agricultural research is the fund- plement and compensate for the inter- ing of the 13 CGIAR-sponsoredre- ests of the private sector in other ways as search centers. The budget grew from well. One way is to focus some portion of $21 million in 1972, when thesystem agricultural research on ecology. Robert included just four centers, to over $100 Barker of Cornell University argues that million by 1980. This growth expanded public institutions like the U.S. land the research mission to newcrops and grant universities should shift their at- ecological zones. Spending increased tention to the "development of theeco- more slowly to a level of about $170 mil- system sciences,"" Designing agricul- lion by the mid-eighties. Althoughsup- tural technologies and practices that port for the centers remains strong, emphasize efficient use of resources and sufficient financial resources in the years regenerative approaches ismore likely ahead to underwrite more complexre- to draw on the insights of ecology and search tasks and changing technologies evolutionary biology than on biochemis- are by no means assured 47 try. CGIAR centers have established an At the international level, CGIARcen- important foundation of basic knowl- ters have begun to acknowledge the im- edge about staple food crops in the last portance of agricultural sustainability. 15 years. Opportunities to apply that The directors of the centers agreed in knowledge could slip away if funding May 1986 to devote more researchto support stagnates. A large measure of raising crop productivity inways that responsibility for adapting crop research avoid environmental deterioration. The to local conditions rests with national re- new emphasis on resource management search programs. Scientists at CGIAR goes beyond crop yield to encompass hope that such programs will assume soil conservation, watermanagement, most of theresponsibilityfor crop and ways to help farmers reduce their breeding in the years ahead. This would reliance on purchased chemicals and fer- allow the international centers to focus tilizers. In addition, the centers will work on more strategic issues, including coor- to develop technologies that can restore dinating the conservation ofcrop ge- degraded croplands.51 netic resources and applying biotechnol- Several international research centers ogy to staple crops.48 have adopted a new approachto better Private fbundations, which funded understand the constraints faced by 172 (156) State of the World-1987 farmers on marginal lands. -Farming of one-way technology transfer, as so systems research" involves farmers and many people perceived the Green Revo- rural households directly in the research lution. Innevations and insightsthat process. But how can a handful of scien- help raise agricultural productivity will tists in national and international re- flow in both directionsbetween re- search begin to reach a quarter of a searchers and farmers, between devel- billion households and refine technolo- oping and industrial countries. Success gies to match their individual circum- inthe low-productivity fields of the stances? The answer must be a far more Third World can suggest new ways of decentralized research effort that builds managing agriculturalresourcesthat on farmer-scientist collaboration and farmers in Iowa or France could use as equips farmers to produce innovations well. for themselves.52 The world is far from having solved The reappraisal of traditional prac- the problems of agricultural productiv- tices is a step toward this collaboration. ity. The conventional approach to rais- According to Paul Richards of University ing productivitycombining new crop College in London, who has worked with varieties with fertilizers, pesticides, and Ni irmers, indigenous agricul- heavy use of energysucceeded dramat- tur.. _owledge is "the single largest ically in increasing food production in km, icdge resource not yet mobilized in industrial countries and in parts of the the development enterprise." In his Third World. But new approaches are book Indigenous Agricultural Revolution, needed to reach farmers who could not Richards documents how traditional afford to follow this path, as well as to farmers in West Africa have modified correct inequities in the distribution of farming practices on the basis of care- resources and to confront widespread fully controlled experiments, ranging environmental problems. Complement- from selection of rice varieties to the ing the use of conventional resources control of grasshoppers. He suggests with innovative biological technologies that mainstream researchers have as that maximize agriculture's internal re- much to learn from the partnership with sources can begin to achieve affordable small farmers as vice versa.53 and sustainable gains in agricultural pro- The challenge for agriculturalre- ductivity. search at all levels is no longer a problem Stabilizing Chemical Cycles Sandra Postel

Over the last two centuriesamere in- definitive picture of how each threat will stant of geologic timeindustrial soci- unfold invites costly and potentially dis- eties have altered the earth's chemistry astrous effects. By the time researchers in ways that may have staggeringeco- document a marked change in climate, logicaland economic consequences for example, it will be irrevocable, and within our lifetimes or those ofour chil- the consequences unavoidable. Stk:h ir- dren. Three stand out as particularly reversibility requires citizens and politi- threatening and costly to society: di- cal leaders to act before theconse- minished food security froma changing quences of chemical pollutionfully climate, the demise of forests from air emerge. pollution and acid rain, and risks to An unsettling element of surprise also human health from exposure to chemi- pervades environmental threats. Natural calpollutantsintheenvironment. systemsincluding climate, forests, and These consequences arise fromevery- the human bodymay absorbstresses dayactivitiesthatcollectivelyhave for long stretches of time without much reached a scale and pace sufficientzo outward sign of damage. A point is disrupt natural systems that evolved reached, however, when suddenly condi- over millions of years. tions worsen rapidly. Scientistsmay an- Much scientific uncertainty surrounds ticipate such sudden changesvariously called jump events, thresholds,or inflec- each of these threats, and more research tion pointsbut rarely can they pinpoint is urgently needed. Yet waiting fora when they will occur. As the scale and An expanded version of this chapter appearedas pace of human activities intensify, the Wor1dwatch Paper 71.Altering the Earth's Chemistry: risk of overstepping such thresholds in- Assessing the Risks. creases.

174 (158) State of the arIdI 987 DISRUPTION OF CHEMICAL cropland and pasture contributed even more carbon to the air each year than CYCLES fossil fuels did. Scientists estimate that between 1860 and 1980 forest clearing Just six elementscarbon, oxygen, ni- released to the atmosphere more than trogen, hydrogen, phosphorus, and sul- 100 billion tons of carbon. Today, land furconstitute 95 percent of the mass of conversionprincipally deforestation in all living matter on earth. Since the sup- the tropicsis estimated to cause a net ply of these elements is fixed, life de- release of between 0.6 billion and 2.6 pends on their efficient cycling through billion tons of carbon annually, or be- the atmosphere and the rocks, soils, wa- tween 12 and 50 percent of that released ters, and organisms of the , a each year by fossil fuel combustion.3 process called biogeochemical cycling. Scientists voiced concern about this In recent years, researchers have learned addition of carbon to the atmosphere as that human activities have significantly long as a century ago. Until fairly re- disrupted these cycles, notably those of cently, many assumed that the oceans carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur.' the biggest reservoir in the carbon cycle Since 1860, the combustion of fossil would remove this element added by fuels has released some 185 billion tons human activities. Then in the late fifties, of carbon to the atmosphere. Annual researchers atop Hawaii's Mauna Loa emissions rose from an estimated 93 mil- began to measure the concentration of lion tons in 1860 to about 5 billion tons atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and at present, a fifty-three-fold increase. fonnd that it was ricing_ Borwefft 1959 The bulk of these emissions occurred and 1985, the annual average CO2 con- since 1950 as the rapid rise in oil use centration increased from 316 parts per added substantially to carbon releases million (ppm) to about 346 ppm, or 9 from coal.2 (See Figure 9-1.) percent. With CO2 levels prior to 1860 Earlier in this century, the clearing estimated at 260-270 ppm, human activ- and burning of forests to make way for ity had increased the atmospheric con- centration of carbon dioxide by about 30 Billion Tons percent in just 125 years.4 6 The central role of carbon dioxide in Source: Inn. for Energy regulating the earth's temperature has Analyjis, Oak Ridge 5 - long been suspected. Like a one-way filter, CO2 lets energy from the sun pass 4 - All through but it absorbs the longer wave- length radiation emitted from the earth's surface. Researchers have mathemati- 3 - Oil cally modeled this phenomenon, dubbed "the greenhouse effect," to pre- 2 dict how the earth's climate would re- Coal spond to higher concentrations of CO2. From the models' results, a consensus has emerged that should the concentra- tion of atmospheric CO2 reach double 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 preindustrial levels (which under exist- Figure 9.1, Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel ing trends will occur around the middle Combustion Worldwide, 1950.84 of the next century), the earth's average

175 Stabilizing Chemical Cycles (159) temperature will rise between 1.5 and from 9.3 million tons in 1950 to 20.2 4.5 degrees Celsius.8 million tons in 1973, and have sincere- Such a change, while seemingly small, mained at roughly this high level. Cur- would have profound effectson the rent estimates peg worldwide NOx emis- world's climate. During the last Ice Age, sions from human activitiesas equal to when vast sheets of ice covered much of those from lightning, soils, and other Europe and North America, the earth's natural sources combined.° average temperature was only about 5 Parts of the nitrogen cycle have also degrees colder than it is today. The pre- been accelerated by the increasing inten- dicted change from a doubling of CO2 sity of crop and livestock production. To would make the earth warmer than at meet growing world food demands, any time in human history.6 farmers have applied large amounts of Recently scientists have begun to raise nitrogen-based fertilizers to the land and concerns about another carbon com- have stepped up meat production by pound: methane. Studies of ancient air raising cattle in feedlots. Scientists be- trapped in polar ice show that the atmo- lieve that the fertilization of soils, the spheric concentration of methanere- concentration of animal wastes, and,to a mained constant for many thousands of lesser degree, fossil fuel combustionre- years, but then began rising around the lease substantial quantities of nitrous year 1600. It has since more than dou- oxide, known to many people as laugh- bled, and is now increasing 1-2 percent ing gas. Unlike the NOx compounds, per year. The exact cause of this increase which settle or rain out aftera relatively rPmains uncertain.7 short life in the atmosphere, nitrous Most gaseous methane is produced by oxide may remain for a centuryor more. bacteria that decompose organic matter Concern about this compound has in- in oxygen-deficient environments. Bac- tensified with the discovery that it,too, is teria in the digestive tracts of cows and a greenhouse gas. The projected con- the soils of rice paddies worldwidepro- centration of nitrous oxide in theyear duce on the order of 140 million tons of 2030 is expected to increase the global methane annually, perhaps double the warming by between 10 and 20percent amount released from natural swamps over the level expected by then from car- and wetlands.Like carbon dioxide, bon dioxide." methane acts as a greenhouse gas,trap- Unlike nitrogen and carbon, sulfur ping heat from the earth. Researchers maintains no major reservoir in theat- estimate that methane's buildup in the mosphere, yet a portion of it cycles atmosphere by the year 2030 could add through the air as it move:: between the to the global warming expected then land and sea. Each year volcanoes,sea from carbon dioxide by between 20 and spray, wetlands, and tidal flats release 40 percent.° some 90 million to 125 million tons of Only a partial picture exists of the sulfur to the atmosphere. Thegreatest global nitrogen budget, but humanac- human influence on the cyclecomes tivities clearly have altered the cycling of fromindustrialactivitymainlythe this key element as well. The combus- combustion of coal and oil and the tion of fossil fuels releases oxides of ni- smelting of sulfur-bearing metallicores. trogen (N0x) to the atmosphere. Power These sources emit the compound sul- plants, automobiles, and industriesare fur dioxide (SO2). (Every twotons of sul- large emitters of these compounds. In fur dioxide emitted addsone ton of the United States, NOx emissionsrose sulfur to the air.) Worldwide, humanity's

1.76 (16o) State of the orld-1987 annual contribution of sulfur to the at- metals, releases to the atmosphere from mosphere now roughly equals that of all human activities now greatly exceed natural sources combinedabout 100 those from soils, volcanoes, and other million tons, essentially doubling the an- natural sources. (See Table 9-1.) Emis- nual cycling of sulfur through the bio- sions of cadmium have been increased sphere." twentyfold, and of zinc twenty-three- Once aloft, NOx and SO2 react with fold. The use of lead in gasoline, which other chemicalsinthe lower atmo- began in the twenties, has boosted lead sphere. NOx and hydrocarbons, for ex- emissions worldwide to 2 million tons ample, are both emitted by the combus- annually-333 times greater than es- tion of oil in automobiles. Under intense timated releases from natural sources. sunshine, they help form ozone, a princi- Like emissions of acid-forming pollu- pal ingredient in the "photochemical tants, metals return to earth and are smog" that blankets many urban areas. deposited in soils, streams, and lakes. These pollutants can migrate from the Scientists do not know the regional or cities to the countryside, sometimes car- global extent of metal deposition, since ried great distances by prevailing winds. it has not been monitored extensively. In many rural areas of Europe and North Yet a team of North American research- America, summer ozone concentrations ers found from a literature survey cover- now measure two to three times higher ing nearly 300 sites worldwide that metal than natural background levels.i2 deposition rates in rural areas were be- Similarly, acid deposition stems from tween 10 and 100 times greater than in a complex set of reactions involving sul- the remote North Atlantic. In urban fur and nitrogen compounds. In the mid-nineteenth century, English chemist Table 9-1. Estimated Annual Global Robert Angus Smith studied the precipi- Emissions of Selected Metals to the tation falling around Manchester, En- Atmosphere from Human Activity and gland, and found higher sulfuric acid Natural Sources, Circa 1980 levels in town than in the surrounding Ratio of countryside.Overthelastseveral Human decades, however, acid rain has spread Human Natural to Natural widely throughout rural areas in indus- Metal Activity SourcesContribution trial countries. The increase in emissions of acid-forming pollutants, along with ousand tons tall smokestacks designed to disperse Lead 2000, 6 333 them away from cities, converted acid Antimony 38 38 rain from a localized urban problem to Zinc 840 36 23 one regional and continental in scale.13 Cadmium 6 0.3 20 Industrial activities have also turned Copper 260 19 14 metalsintotroublesomepollutants. Selenium 14 3 5 Metals occur naturally in soils and rock; Arsenic 78 21 4 in the forms and concentrations found in Nickel 98 28 4 nature, they pose little hazard. But with Vanadium 210 65 3 the growth of fossil fuel combustion, Chromium 94 58 2 smelting, incineration, and other high- somice: James N. Galloway ci al., -Trace Metals in temperature processes, metal concen- Atmospheric Deposition: A Review and Assess- trations in the environment have in- ment," inmospherk Environmeni, Vol.16, No. 7, creased markedly. For nearly a dozen 1982.

177 Stabilizing Chemical Cycles (r6i) areas, the rates were between 100 and by banning or restricting aerosoluses of 10,000 times greater. They concluded CFCs. Yet because of increasing de- that mercury and lead "are now being mands for CFC products in Third World deposited in some areas at levels toxicto countries and for unrestricted CFCuses humans" and cadmium, copper,mer- in industrialnations,this downward cury, lead, and zinc "at levels toxic to trend appears to have reversed. Es- other organisms."14 timated production (excluding the So- Besides altering the cycling of natural viet Union, Eastern Europe, and China) (.: ments such as carbon, nitrogen, rose16 percent between1982 and and metals, society has introduced 1984." in the environment over the last half- century thousands of substances that have no natural counterparts. Their Humani early creators probably never imagined s annual contribution of that these chemicals might severely dam- sulfurtothe atmosphere now age natural systems. Yet in the early sev- roughly equals that of all natural enties, scientists warned that one family sources combined. ofsyntheticcompoundsthechlo- rofluorocarbons (CFCs)could destroy the life-protecting layer of ozone in the Assuming modest emissions growth upper atmosphere. rates for related atmospheric gases and Ironically, ozonethe chemical that a 3-percent annual increase in CFC in the lower atmosphere forms irritating emissions, the U.S. National Aeronautics urban smogin the upper atmosphere and Space Administration has projected performs a vital function. It absorbs ul- a 10-percent depletion of the ozone traviolet radiation from tbe sun that, if it layer by the middle of the next century. reached the earth, would cause skincan- According to a study by the U.S. Envi- cers, damage crops, and have other ronmental Protection Agency, such a de- harmfuleffects. Once aloft,chloro- pletion could result in nearly 2 million fluorocarbons migrate to the upper at- additional skin cancer cases eachyear, mosphere, where the sun's intense rays damage to materials such as plastics and break them down, releasing atoms of paints worth as much as $2 billionannu- chlorine. This chlorine in turn drivesa ally, and incalculable damage tocrops series of reactions that destroyozone. and aquatic life.17 Largely as a result of worldwide CFC Concern about the pace and predicta- emissions, stratospheric concentrations bility of ozone depletion was heightened of chlorine are now more than twicenat- recently with findings of roughlya 40- ural levels." percent decrease .n the ozone layer Production of CFC-11 and CFC-12, above Antarctica each October, shortly the most worrisome members of the after sunlight reappears following the CFC family, rose steadily from the early continent's dark winter. Scientists had thirties to the early seventies as demand not anticipated such a loss, and whether grew to use them as propellants in aero- it portends a more-rapid-than-expected sol cans, as foam7blowing agents, andas depletion of the ozone layer globallyre- coolants for refrigerators. Production mains unknown.18 declined from the mid-seventies through Chlorofluorocarbons also add to the 1982 after a number of industrialna- threat of climate change, both indirectly tions responded to scientists' warnings by their attack on the ozone layer and

178 (162 ) e of Me World-1987 directly by acting as greenhouse gases. would have _measurable quantities of The expected ozone depletion will alter DDT in their blood and fat; or that more the energy budgets of the upper and than a decade after being banned from lower atmospheres, tending to warm the use in the United States, DDT would still earth. Since CFCs themselves effectively be found in carrots and spinach sold in trap heat radiated from the earth, their San Francisco supermarkets," buildup in the atmosphere will add sub- How extensively_ alterations in the stantially to the greenhouse warming. In earth's chemistry will affect people and October 1985, scientists from 29 nations natural systems remains unknown, With meeting in Villach, Austrb, concluded built-in mechanisms of checks and bal- that the climate-altering potential of ances, the biosphere tends toward a greenhouse gases other than CO2such steady state, much as the human body as methane, nitrous oxide, and the CFCs maintains a constant internal tempera- --is already about as important as that ture regardless of the temperature out- of CO2.- Taken together, the rising con- doors. Yet any self-regulating system centrations of carbon dioxide and all can be so perturbed by external stresses other greenhouse gases could lead to the that it destabilizes and loses its ability to equivalent of a doubling of CO2 over function, preindustrial levels by "as early as the 2030s."10 The long-term effects of the thou- sands of other synthetic chemicals ap- plied to croplands, emitted from facto- RISKS TO FOOD SECURITY ries, and deposited as waste onto the land are largely unknown. As with many Over the centuries, farmers have geared industrial products, the benefits of using their cropping systems to nature's nor- chemicals are easier to quantify than the mal offering of rain and warmth. Depar- costs.Pesticides,for example, have tures from these seasonal conditions can helped control such dreaded diseases as severely undermine crop production, malaria, bubonic plague, typhus, and farmers'livelihoods,and,ultimately, sleeping sickness, saving many millions food security. Because of the rising con- of lives. They kill insects that can devas- centrations of carbon dioxide, chlo- tatecrops, and thus have arguably rofluorocarbons, and other greenhouse helped reduce hunger and avert famine. gasesinthe atmosphere, a marked Yet research has revealed that pesticides change in the earth's climate may occur and other chemicals pose serious and over the next 50 years. Existing models often insidious long-term risks,20 cannot capture all the complexities of Few people could have known when the world's climate, nor can they predict the pesticide DDT came into widespread precisely the changes in temperature use in the early forties that it would in- and rainfall that will occur in specific re- terfere with the formation of normal gions. Yet they clearly indicate the need eggshells in peregrine falcons, bald ea- for some major and costly adjustments gles, and other predatory birds, thus to maintain global food security.22 nudging these species toward rarity and Although theclimatewillchange extinction.Stillfewerwouldhave gradually as the concentrations of green- guessed that DDT would find its way to house gases increase, most modelers penguins in the Antarctic; that within focus their predictions on what will threegenerations,mostAmericans occur from the equivalent of a doubling

179 StabilizingC nical Cycles (163 ) of carbon dioxide over preindustrial lev- crop losses in these major breadbaskets. els. They generally agree that tempera- As a rule of thumb, for example,corn tures will rise everywhere, though by yields in the United States drop 10per- greater amounts in the temperate and cent for each day the crop is under se- polar regions than in the tropics. Sincea vere stress during its silking and tassel- warmer atmosphere can hold more ing stage. Thus, five days of temperature moisture, average world- or moisture stress during this critical pe- wide is expected to increase by 7-11 per- riod, which would likely occurmore fre- cent. In many regions, however, this ad- quently in much of the U.S. Cornbelt ditionalrainfall would be offset by with the anticipated climate change, higher rates of evaporation, causing soil would cut yields in half.25 moisturethe natural water supply for cropsto decrease.23 Recent model results indicate a sub- Temperatures will rise everywhere, stantial summertime drying out of the though by greater amounts in the mid-continent, mid-latitude regions of temperate and polar regions than the northern hemisphere.24 Soil mois- ture for summer crop production would in the tropics. diminish in large grain-producing areas of North America and the Soviet Union. Together, Canada and the United States Although some key food-producing account for more than half of the world's regions may dry out, prospects forex- cereal exports, and the United States panding production in other areas could alone accounts for 72 percent of the improve. Warmer and wetter conditions world's total exports of corn. (See Table in India and much of Southeast Asia 9-2.) might increase rice production in these In large portions of these areas, lack of areas. The picture remains unclear for water already limits crop production. A Africa. But reconstructions of theso- drier average growing season, along called Altithermal period some 4,500to with more frequent and severe heat 8,000 years ago, when summertime tem- waves and droughts, could lead to costly peratures were higher than at present, suggest that northern and eastern Africa Table 9-2. Share of World Cereal Exports could get substantially more rainfall. If in 1984 from Major Countries Where so, average flows of the Niger, Senegal, Summer Moisture is Expected to Volta, and Blue Nile rivers would in- Decrease crease, possibly aiding the expansion of irrigation. In northern latitudes, higher All temperatures and milder winters might Country CornRice Wheat Cereals Open vast tracts of land to cultivation. (percent) AgriculturalproductioninCanada, northern Europe, and the Soviet Union Canada 1 0 19 11 might expand northward.26 Soviet Union 0 0 2 Unfortunately, shifting crop produc- United States 72 17 37 44 tion to areas benefiting from climate Total change would not only be costly,it 73 17 58 56 would have to overcome some serious SOuRCE: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, constraints. Thin, nutrient-poor soils 1984 F.40 Trade Yearbook (Rome:1985). cover much of northern Minnesota, Wis-

S 0 164) Stale ohe WorldI987 consul, and Michigan, so a northward water, nutrients, and other factors are shift of the U.S. Cornbelt in response to not limited, every 1 percent rise in the higher temperatures would result in a CO2 concentration may increase photo- substantial drop in yield. Poor soils will synthesis by 0.5 percent." also inhibit successful northward agri- Yet, other factors could offset poten- cultural migrations in Scandinavia and tial gains in yield. Crops might need Canada. It would take centuries for more more nitrogen and other nutrients to productive soils to form. Though during achieve the greater productivity made the Altithermal period the present des- possible by higher CO2 levels. Damage ert regions of North Africa were savan- from insect pests could increase, since nas suited for grazing, these lands also the warmer climate would likely enhance would require a long time to regain their insect breeding. Yields of some crops-- former fertility." notably corncould also suffer from greater competition from weeds." Whatever the outcome for individual Climate change couldcarrya regions, adapting to climate change will global price tag of $200 billion for exact heavy costs from governments and farmers. The expensive irrigation sys- irrigation adjustments alone. tems supplying water to the 270 million hectares of irrigated cropland worldwide were built with present climatic regimes Low-lying agricultural areas face the in mind. These irrigated lands account threat of a substantial rise in sea level for only 18 percent of total cropland, yet from the altered climate. Since water ex- they yield a third of the global harvest. pands when heated, oceans will rise with Irrigated agriculture thus plays a dispro- theincreaseinglobaltemperature. portionately large role in meeting the Warmer temperatures willalso melt world's food needs. Shifts in rainfall mountain glaciers and parts of polar ice patterns could make existing irrigation sheets, transferring water from the land systemsincluding reservoirs,canals, to the sea. From the global warming ex- pumps, and wellsunnecessary in some pected by the middle of next century, sea regions, insufficient in others. More- levels could increase as much as one over, seasonal reductions in water sup- meter, threatening large tracts of agri- plies because of climate change could cultural lowlandswhere much of the seriously constrain irrigated agriculture, world's rice is grownwith inundation. especially where competition for scarce Of particular concern are the heavily water is already increasing.81 populated, fertile delta regions of the A look at one key food-producing re- Ganges River in Bangladesh, the Indus gionthe western United Stateshigh- inPakistan,andthe Chang Jiang lights how costly climate change could (Yangtze) in China.28 be. Though by no means conclusive, cli- The productivity of major food crops mate models suggest that much of this wia respond not only to changes in cli- area could experience a reduction in mate, but directly to the higher concen- rainfall along with the rise in tempera- tration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Car- ture. Since rates of precipitation and bon dioxide is a basic ingredient for evaporation largely determine any re- photosynthesis, the process by which gion's renewable water supply, supplies green plants transform solar energy into in the West would diminish. Assuming a the chemical energy of carbohydrates. 2-degree Celsius increase in tempera- Experiments suggest that as long as ture and a 10-percent decrease in pre-

181 Stabilizing Chemical Cycles (165) Table 9-3. Water Supplies Under Present and PostulatedClirn s ern United States Aver geAnnual Supply Ratio of Demand WaterResources Present Altered Region in Year 2000 to Climate Climate' Change AlteredSupply (billion cubic meters) (percent) Missouri 85.0 30.7 64 Arkansas-White-Red 1.2 93.5 43.2 54 0.4 Texas Gulf 49.2 24.7 Rio Grande 50 0.7 7.4 1.8 76 3.7 UpperColorado 16.4 9.9 40 1.7 Lower Colorado 11.5 5.0 California 57 2.7 101.8 57.1 44 0.7 AllRegions 350.92 165.32 53 0.9 'Assumes a 2-dogrce Celsius temperawre increase and a 10-percent reduction in precipitation.2Does not equal sum of column bccause a portion of LowerColorado flow is derived from Upper Colorado. SOURCE: Roger R. Revelle and Paul E. Waggoner, "Effectsof a Carbon Dioxide-Induced Climatic on Water Supplies in the Western United States," in National Change ington. D.C,: National Academy Press, 1983). Research Council, Changing Clime!, (W ash- cipitation, supplies in each ofseven these seven westernU.S. regions western river basins would be reduced roughly 35 percent of thearea currently some 40 to 76 percent. (See Table 9-3.) irrigated." Such reductions would create severe A reduction of that magnitudewould imbalances in regional water budgets. have high costs, measured eitherby the Projected water consumption 13years capital investments in dams, canals, from now would exceed supplies and avail- irrigation systems rendered obsoleteor able under the current climate onlyin by the replacement value ofthat irriga- the Lower Colorado region. With theas- tion infrastructure. Investment needs sumed climate change, however, for con- expanding irrigation vary widely, butas- sumption in the year 2000 would exceed suming expenses of $1,500to $5,000 the renewable supply in four regions, per hectare, replacement costs could with local shortages probably occurring range from $7 billion to $23 billion in in the other three." the United States alone. Worldwide, Since agriculture is by far the biggest maintaining food security under theal- consumer of water, balancing regional tered climate could requirenew irriga- water budgets would likely require that tion systems beyond those thatwould be irrigation cease on a substantial shzIreof added anyway as world foodneeds in- cropland. This is happeningnow in por- creased. If such additional tions of the Lower Colorado, where systems were con- needed for the equivnlent of 15percent sumption already exceeds the renewable of existing irrigatedarea, climate change supply. Correcting the large imbalances could carry a global pricetag of $200 resulting from such an alteredclimate billion for irrigationadjustments could require that asmany as 4.6 million alone." hectares be taken out of irrigationin The need for new drainagesystems, 182 (166) State of theWorld--1987 flood control structures, cropping pat- the leading causes. A more thorough terns, and crop varieties would greatly surveyin1984 confirmedthatthe magnify the costs of adapting to a unusual tree disease was spreading. For- changed climate. According to some esters found that trees covering half of ballpark estimates, the annual cost of a the nation's 7.37 million hectares of for- greenhouse gas-induced warming of 2.5 ests were damaged, including two thirds degrees Celsius could amount to 3 per- of those in the southwestern state of cent of the world's gross economic out- Baden WUrttemberg, home of the fabled put. Much of this expense would result Black Forest.37 from the loss of capital assets in agricul- Spurred by West Germany's alarming ture. Poorer countries would have the discovery, other European nations took most difficulty adapting, and as food action to assess the health of their own production typically generates a rela- forests. Different methods of surveying tively large share of their incomes, their and estimating damage were used in var- peoplewouldsufferdisproportion- ious countries, so the results are not ately." strictly comparable. Nonetheless, the as- Moreover, as climate expert William sessments collectively suggest that 14 percent of Europe's forests, or 19.3 mil- W. Kellogg points out, the need to adapt lion hectaresan area the size of Austria to climate change will arise "against a and East Germany combinedexhibit backdrop of increased world population, signs of injury. (See Table 9-4.) The key increased demands for energy, and de- symptoms for the conifer species, the pletion in many places of soil, forests, hardest hit, parallel those found in West and other natural resources." The dis- Germany: yellowing of needles, casting ruptions wrought by a changing climate off of older needles, and damage to the may thus bring new pockets of famine, fine roots through which trees take up losses of income, and the need for huge nutrients. In eight countriesAustria, capital investments that many countries Czechoslovakia, Finland, Luxembourg, will find difficult to afford.36 the Netherlands, Poland, Switzerland, and West Germanya quarter to half the forested area is damaged.38 National estimates in some cases belie the extent of damage in specific regions. CHEM CAL STRESSES ON Total damage in Sweden is placed at FORESTS about 4 percent, but an estimated 20 percent of the forested area in the south Growing threats to forests from changes is affected. In Yugoslavia, 1 out of 10 in the chemistry of the atmosphere con- trees is damaged nationwide, but 1 out stitute another set of potentially costly of 3 exhibits injury in Slovenia. In 1984, consequencesduringthe coming foresters in France surveyed portions of decades. In the autu:nn of 1983, the the French Jura and Alsace-Lorraine, ad- West German Ministry of Food, Agricul- jacent to West Germany's Black Forest, ture, and Forestry galvanized both scien- and found that more than a third of the tists and the citizenry with an unsettling trees were injured, at least 10 percent of finding: 34 percent of the nation's trees them severely." were yellowing, losing needles or leaves, Indeed, the alpine region spanning or showing other signs of damage. Pre- portions of Austria, France, Italy, Swit- liminary evidence pointed to air pollu- zerland, and West Germany exhibits the tion and acid rain as contributing, if not worstdamage.Swissofficialshave

1 Stabilizing Chemical Cycles (167) Table 94. Estimated Forest Damage in Europe,August 1986 Total Forest Estimated Portion of Total Country Area Area Damaged! Area Damaged (thousands of hectares) (percent) Austria 3,754 960 26 Belgium 616 111 18 Czechoslovakia 4,600 1,200 26 East Germany 2,900 350 12 Finland 19,400 6,790 35 France 15,075 280 Hungary 1,670 184 1 I Italy 6,363 318 5 Luxembourg 82 42 51 Netherlands 309 155 50 Norway 8,330 400 5

Poland 8,677 2,273 26 Sweden 26,500 1,000 4 Switzerland 1,200 432 36 West Germany 7,371 3,824 52 Yugoslavia 9,500 1,000 10 Other 19,687 Total 136,034 19,319 14 !Estimates were made in 1984. 1085, or 1986, and are generally the mo t 1. '424 percent of the 1.16 million hectares surveyed exhibit damage. sooRce.s: (Illgenithw Forst Zrilsrlinli. Munich, West Germany, No. 46, 1985and No. 41, 1981i.

warned that avalanches and landslides subtle signs of ill health come from the resulting from the loss of treecover will discovery that pine trees in a broadre- damage houses and farms, andmay gion of the U.S. Southeast grew 20-30 force people to evacuate someareas. Es- percent less between 1972 and 1982 timates for some East Europeancoun- than they did between 1961 and 1972.1n tries include a large share of severely a November 1985 report, U.S. Forest damaged trees In Poland, for example, Service analysts stated that thenet an- dead and dying trees cover 450,000 hec- nual growth of softwood timber in the tares, 20 percent of the total area dam- Southeast "has peaked and turned aged. No data are available for Greece, downward after a long upward trend."4' Ireland, or Portugal, and Spanish offi- Though less well documented,unex- cials report no significant damage.40 pected growth declines appear to have Unusual tree injury in North America occurred throughout the Appalachians, is largely confined to high-elevation for- extending north into New England. In ests of the eastern mountain ranges. written testimony presented to the U.S. There, red spruce trees are undergoing Senate in February 1984, soil scientist a serious dieback, a progressive thinning Arthur H. Johnson drew an unsettling from the outer tree crown inward. More parallel by noting that similar growthre- 184 (168) State of the WorldI987 ductions preceded the "alarming inci- Lions register several times higher than dences" of forest damage in Europe.42 the average. The numerous dead and Hundreds of scientists in the affected dying trees in this industrial region may countries continue to search for the thus be succumbing tothe "classic cause of this unprecedented forest de- smoke injury" known to occur near large cline. Collectively they offer a bewilder- sources of uncontrolled pollution.44 ing array of hypotheses, attesting to the Detailed measurements of the chemis- difficulty of unraveling a mystery within try of runoff from the Erzgebirge moun- a complex natural system. Most agree, tain watershed also suggest, however, however, that air pollutantsprobably that acidification has profoundly altered combined with natural factors, such as the soil's ability to support a forest. insects, cold, or droughtare a princi- Czech geochemist Tomas Paces found pal cause. Explanations focus on acid that losses of the nutrients magnesium rain, gaseous sulfur dioxide, nitrogen and calcium from the damaged forest compounds, heavy metals, and ozone, were on average, respectively, 6.8 and which singly or in combination cause 7.5 times greater than from the undam- damage variously through the foliage, aged rural forest. (See Table 9-5.) Less forest soils, or both." than half of these increased nutrient Changes in soils present the most losses can be explained by the higher troubling prospects as they may be irre- rates of precipitation and thus of atmo- versible for the near future. A severely spheric chemical inputs in the damaged damaged forest in Eastern Europe offers forest.45 evidence that alterations in the soil are Runoff of aluminum, which normally indeed taking place. Large portions of remains bound up in soil , was the Erzgebirge mountains northwest of 32 times greater from the damaged for- Prague, Czechoslovakia, now resemble a est than from the undamaged one. With wasteland. Near the industrial city of the loss of calcium and other elements Most, where power plants burn high-sul- that can buffer incoming acidity, alumi- fur coal, SO2 concentrations average num mobilizes to serve as the buffering 112 micrograms per cubic meter, much agent. In soluble forms, this metal can higher than in other industrial areas, and be toxic to trees. Finally, outputs of ni- 13 times higher than in a seemingly un- trate exceeded those from the undam- damaged rural forest about 160 kilome- aged forest by a factor of 20. Paces be- ters to the southeast. Peak concentra- lieves this reflects the damaged forest's Table 9-5. Chemicals in Runoff from Forested Watersheds, Czechoslovakia, 19782 Undamaged Damaged Ratio of Damaged Chemical Rural Forest' Forest2 to Undamaged (kilograms per hectare per year) Potassium 1.9 6.8 3.6 Magnesium 3.8 26,0 6.8 Calcium 9.9 74.0 7.5 Sulfate 9.0 96.0 10.7 Nitrate 0.6 12.0 20.0 Aluminum 0.1 3.2 32.0 'Average for7 years, 1976-82.5Average for 5 yenis, 1978-82. SOURCE:Tomas Paces. "Sources of Acidific-ition in Central Europe Estimated from Elemental Budgets in Small Basins,"Nature, May 2, 1985.

1 Stabiliz ng Chemical Cycles (169) inability to properly recycle nitrogena Cornell University subjected fourspe- loss of basic ecosystem function. cieswhte pine, hybrid poplar, sugar Forests in the industrial regions of maple, and red oakto a range ofozone Eastern Europe have borne inordinately concentrations spanning those typically heavy pollutant loads over the last few found in the United States. In all four ,!ecades. Few forests outside thesere- species, net photosynthesis, which isa gions have so drastically collapsed. Yet measure of a tree's growth, decreased eLological theory firmly supports the linearly with increasing ozoneconcen- possibility of more widespread destruc- trations. Thus, even with no outward tion as chemical stress accumulates over sign of injury, trees covering largere- time. According to C.S. Ho !ling of the gions are very likely losing vigor and University of British Columbia, natural growing slower. Growth reductions of systems may sosuccessfully absorb just 1-2 percent peryear amount to a stress that for long periods change oc- substantial loss of timber overa tree's curs very slowly. Eventually, however, lifetime.46 systems may reach a stress point, and "a Chronic pollution stress now placesa jump event becomes increasingly likely substantial and ultimately inevitable."46 shareoftheindustrial Substantial economic losses already world's forests at risk. In just oneyear, are occurring from the existing level of forest damage in West Germany jumped pollution stress on forests, and they will from 34 percent to 50 percent. The 1985 magnify greatly if the prospects of large- damage survey showed just a slight in- scale forest decline become reality. The crease, to 52 percent, perhaps because Czechos;ovakian Academy of Sciences of weather conditions favorable for the estimates the cost of acid pollution at forests.49 No one knows how much the $1.5 billion annually, with forest damage forest damage in all of Europenowes- accounting for much of the total. In timated as14 percentwill increase. West Germany, researchers at the Tech- Nor does anyone know howmany of the nical University of Berlin project from injured trees will eventually die,or when current trends that German forest indus- thresholds may be reached beyond tries will suffer direct losses averaging $1 which forest damage rapidlyworsens. billion annually through the year 2060. Whether the unexplained growth reduc- Yet besides supplying timber, healthy tions in eastern U.S. forests portenda forestshelp protectthequality of similar decline there also remainsun- streams and groundwater supplies, con- known. Meanwhile, with each passing trol the erosion of soils, and providere- year of continued pollution stress, the creational enjoyment for residentsas costs of lost forest productivity mount, well as tourists. Adding in projected as do the risks of more extreme forest lo:Jses of these functions, the Berlinre- decline and death. searchers estimate that the total cost of forest damage in West Germany over the next several decades will average $2.4 billion per year.47 In the United States, field and labora- THREATS TO HUMAN tory experiments, combined with the findings of greatly reduced tree growth, HEALTH strongly suggest that ozonealready In 1775, during England's industrialrev- known to be diminishing crop yieldsis olution,epidemiologist Percival Pau reducing the productivity of some com- identified the first environmental carcin- mercial forest species. Researchersat ogen. He found surprisingly high rates 186 (170) Slate of the rldi 987 of scrotal cancer among British chimney eight times higher than the nation's pri- sweeps, and uncovered the cause to be mary standard; average levels in the their unusually high exposure to soot, a southwest city of Chongqing registered by-product of combustion.55 21times higher. Healthofficialsin Since then, the health hazards of envi- Shanghai reportedly hold air pollution ronmental pollutants have spread widely primarily responsible for a higher rate of to the general population. The same fos- lung cancer deaths there than elsewhere sil fuel pollutants damaging forests and in the country.52 crops also harm people. Metals released Heavy metals released to the environ- into the environment have become a ment during combustion, smelting, in- growing cause for concern. Most re- cineration, and other industrial pro- cently, the proliferation of synthetic cesses are of growing concern. Some chemicals applied to crops, dispersed metalsincluding copper, iron, and zinc into the air, and disposed of on land has are essential nutrients needed by the added new dimensions to environmental body in small amounts. Others, such as health risks. lead, cadmium, and mercury, serve no just as scientists cannot unequivocally nutritional function. If introduced to the prove that air pollutants cause forest body in large enough amounts, either damage, health researchers rarely can type can cause varying toxic effects, in- prove that pollution causes specific cases cluding cancer, and can damage the of human illness and death. Yet as an liver, kidneys, and central nervous sys- added stress on the human body, air pol- tem .53 lutants reduce the productivity and life spans of susceptible people, just as they do with trees. The U.S. Office of Tech- The same fossilfuel pollutants nology Assessment estimates that the current mix of sulfates and damaging forests and crops also in ambient air may cause 50,000 prema- harm people. ture deaths in the United States each yearabout 2 percent of annual mortal- ity. As many as 4 out of every 10 Ameri- Scientists have long known that high cans are exposed to high ozone concen- levels of lead in a person's blood can trations during the spring and summer, cause serious health damage. Since the when weather conditions favor ozone's twenties, when petroleum refiners began formation. Especially vulnerable are the adding lead to gasoline, people's expo- more than 16 million people already sure to this heavy metal has increased suffering from emphysema, asthma, and greatly. An estimated 675,000 young other chronic respiratory disorders.5' children in the United States have high In growing Third World cities, uncon- concentrations of lead in their blood. trolled emissions from power plants, fac- The effects vary with the quantities pres- tories, and automobiles have added ent, but include damage to the kidney, substantially to those from the burning liver, nervous system, and reproductive of firewood and coal in homes. Between system; impaired growth; and interfer- 1976 and 1980, annual sulfur dioxide ence with blood synthesis. With the bur- concentrations in S'a'o Paulo, Brazil, av- geoning use of automobiles over the last eraged 25 percent higher than the U.S. few decades, millions of children world- standard set to protect human health. wide have become exposed to poten- Similarly, in Beijing, China, sulfur diox- tially toxic amounts of lead." ide concentrations for 1982 averaged Risks from some metalsfor example,

187 Stabilizing Cmica! cycles (17 ) cadmium, lead, and mercuryamplify memory and cognitive function. The as- with their ability to increase inconcen- sociation came to light from studies of tration as they move up the food chain. the abnormal clumps of nerve-cell fibers In the United States, dangerous levels of called neurofibrillary tanglesfound mercury led the Wisconsin Department at autopsy in the brains of Alzheimer vic- of Natural Resources to issue a warning tims. Using sensitive X-ray techniques, in April 1985 against eating certainspe- Dr. Daniel Perl, a neuropathologistat cies of fish from 15 lakes in that state. the University of Vermont, found signifi- Similarly, in Poland's Gdansk Bay, quan- cant accumulations of aluminum in the tities of mercury found in herring, cod, tangles, which were absent from normal and flatfish have exceeded permissible controlsamples.Corroboratingevi- levels considerably.55 dence comes from Perl's studies ofna- In recent years, scientists have found tive populations in Guam and two other that acid rain may magnify health risks locales of the western Pacific. All three from metals. Surveys of regions receiv- populations have exhibited unusually ing acid precipitation, along with experi- high incidences of neurodegenerative ments in which lakes are purposely acid- disorders; all three regions have soils ified, show that aluminum, cadmium, rich in bauxite, an ore of aluminum.55 mercury, and lead become more soluble Just how aluminum gets into the dam- as acidification progresses. Acidic water aged nerve cells of Alzheimer victims can thus leach metals from soils and lake and whether its presence is acause or an sediments into underground aquifers, effectremains unknown. The destruc- streams, and reservoirs, potentially con- tive effects of aluminum on fish andtrees taminating edible fish and water sup- suggest that these organisms have not plies. h can also dissolve toxic metals adaptedsuccessfullytothealtered from the pipes and conduits of munici- chemistry of their environs. According pal or home water systems, contaminat- to Perl, we can only speculate at this ing drinking water. In New York's Adi- point as to whether humans will find rondack Mountainsa region receiving themselves-inasimilar vulnerable high rates of acid precipitationdrink- state.-59 ing water samples have had leadconcen- A third set of health hazards, along trations up to 100 times higher than with fossil fuel pollutants and metals, standards set to protect human health.56 stem from the introduction of synthetic Acid rain's ability to mobilize alumi- chemicals to the environment. Some num, the most abundant metallic ele- 70,000 chemicals presently are in:very- ment in the earth's crust, appears partic- day use, with between 500 and 1,000 ularly disturbing. Aluminum normally new ones added to the list each year. remains bound up in soil minerals and is Estimates of the share of cancer deaths thus harmless to living organisms. Ren- caused by these substances vary, but the dered soluble by increasing acidification, most widely accepted range from 1 per- however, its concentration in lakes and cent to 10 percent.60 streams has risen to levels harmful to Compared with tobaccowhich in the aquatic life, and in some soils may be United States causes an estimated 30 damaging to trees.57 percent of cancer deaths and nearly one Recently, some researchers havesug- fifth of all deathsknown risks fromsyn- gested a possible link between alumi- thetic chemicals pale in importance. num and Alzheimer disease, a pervasive, Nonetheless, some investigators believe degenerative form of dementiacom- these compounds account fortens of monly associated with severe loss of thousands of deaths eachyear in the 188 (172) State of the lVorld-1987 United States alone. Because of the long cals have received little or no testing for lag timeoften 20-40 yearsbetween toxicity. No information on toxic effects exposure to a cancer-causing chemical is available for an estimated 79 percent and the appearance of disease, the num- of the chemicals in commerce. Fewer ber of cancers induced by synthetic sub- than a fifth have been tested for acute stances may increase markedly over the effects, and fewer than a tenth for coming decades.61 chronic (e.g., cancer7causing), reproduc- tive, or mutagenic effects. Moreover, the NRC found that chemicals produced in No information on toxic effects is large volumes were tested no more fre- quently or thoroughly than those pro- available for an estimated 79 per- duced in smaller volumes.63 Given how cent of the chemicals in commerce. little is known about the extent of peo- ple's exposure to these substances, their introduction to the environment is akin Moreover, perhaps the greatest risks to playing Russian roulette with human posed by manufactured chemicals derive health. not from what is known about their Pesticideshave generallyreceived health effects, but rather from what is not more extensive testing, but serious gaps known. So few data exist on the toxicity remain. Charles Benbrook, executive di- of chemicals now in use and on the ex- rector of the Board on Agriculture of the tent of human exposure to them that es- National Academy of Sciences, estimates timates of the total health risk they col- that between 60 and 75 percent of the lectively present can only be educated pesticides used on food and put on the guesses at best. market within the last decade have met The U.S. National Research Council EPA's current standards for toxicity test- (NRC) estimatesthatabout 53,500 ing. Bills that moved through Congress chemicals are used commercially in the in the fall of 1986 (but that did not pass) United States. From available listings, called for speeding up the retesting of these chemicals fall into five categories: older compounds, hundreds of which pesticides and pesticideingredients, were marketed before the full health cosmetics, drugs, food additives, and a dangers of pesticides were understood. broad category of -chemicals in com- Since these older pesticides typically merce" consisting of compounds listed cost less than the newer ones, they are in the inventory of toxic substances pre- still especially widely used by farmers in pared by the Environmental Protection the Third World." Agency (EPAI. This latter category in- In the absence of adequate testing, cludes most industrial chemicals. They knowledge of adverse chemical expo- and the pesticides present the greatest sure may come only after serious health threatstothegeneralpopulation consequences arise. A classic example through inadvertent exposure. Pesti- involved diethylstilbestrol, which caused cides may leave residues in food, leach to vaginal cancer in daughters of women underground water supplies, or spread given this compound during a critical through theair.Similarly,industrial period of their pregnancy. Men report- chemicals may be released to the air or, edly have suffered reproductive effects when stored or disposed of on land, may from occupational exposure to a variety seep into drinking water.62 of Chemicals, including vinyl chloride, Despite the potential for widespread kepone, lead, and some common pesti- human exposure, most synthetic chemi- cides. Indeed, at least 20 chemicals have Stabilizing Chemical Cycles (173) been associated with adverse reproduc- than a quarter of the variation insperm tive effects in men or women, typically density found among the students.68 through exposure inthe workplace. Arthur J. Vander, a professor of physi- Harm to the general population is much ology at the University of Michigan, more difficult to detect and prove.65 points out that when considering how Recent findings of widespread human the body metabolizes environmental contamination, however, raise concerns chemicals, "we must neverassume that that pervasive hazards may exist. Some children are simply little adults." Defen- investigators now believe, for example, sive enzyme systems are not fullymature that dioxinsamong the most toxic in newborn babies or invery young in- chemicals knownare present in virtu- fants. Babies may have limitedaccess to ally everyone living in industrialcoun- the environment, but theyare exposed tries. The levels detected in the general to environmental chemicals through population are far below that knownto their mothers. Virtually all chemicals cause acute toxic effects in humans, but present in a mother's blood will get into the long-term effects of low-levelcon- her milk, which an infantmay then in- tamination remain unclear.66 gest. Also, since the placenta is designed Dioxins have produced tumors in ani- for diffusion, chemicals ina pregnant mals and have been linked with certain woman's bloodstream may rare cancers in people. Recent evidence pass, in vary- ing amounts, into the developingfetus. also suggests that they may damage the The concentration of DDT in immune system, which would weaken ivial blood, for example, is typicallyalmost people's ability to fight disease. Breast- half that in maternal blond.69 feeding babies appear especially at risk With advances in medical technolo- from any toxic effects. Researchers have gies and more sophisticated epidemio- calculated that through the dioxin-con- logical studies, evidence linking chemi- taminated fat in breast milk, an infant cals to adverse health effectsseems likely nursed for one year could acquire 18 to grow. Researchers are now investigat- times the allowable" lifetimeexposure ing the possibility, for example, that set by the U.S. Centers for Disease Con- Par- kinson's disease is associated withexpo- tro1.67 sure to environmental chemicals.70 More Additional evidence of widespread research is needed to unravel the chemical hazards comes from research com- at plex and sometimes subtleways in which Florida State University that pointsto chemicals affect the human body. Since environmental chemicals as contributing manytoxiceffects toa appearseveral decline in male fertility. In American decades after exposure to the offending men, sperm densitya measure of fertil- chemical, the full implications of the ityhas apparently diminished signifi- chemical age will take time to realize. cantly since mid-century. A 1979 study of 132 university students showed that nearly one out of four men hadsperm densities low enough to reduce theirre- productive success. Each sample ofsem- inal fluid contained synthetic chemicals, MINIMIZING RISKS including pentachlorophenol (a widely Industrial societies have spawned multi- used pesticide and wood preservative), ple and rapidly increasing changes in the polychlorobiphenyls, and metabolites of earth's chemistry. The resulting threats DDT. According tothe researchers, to food security, forests, and human toxic substances accounted formore health pose substantial risksover the

s (174) State of the World-1987 years ahead. A strategy of minimizing percent per year, just one quarter the human-induced chemical change pre-1973 rate. Carbon emissions actu- where possible, through measures that ally fell for four consecutive years, 1980 remedy several problems simultane- through 1983. But with the recent drop ouslydeserves immediate support. in oil prices and strong economic growth Because of society's past and present in many countries, maintaining this low dependence on fossil fuels, a change in rate will require substantial investments the world's climate is already inevitable. in energy efficiency and alternative en- Yet since carbon dioxide is the key vari- ergy sources beyond what the market able in the climate equation, the magni- alone would induce. Moreover, main- tude of climatic change and the pace at taining a 1-percent worldwide rate of which it unfolds will depend greatly on growth will mean putting a virtual cap on the future use of coal, oil, and natural carbon emissions from industrial coun- gas. If worldwide carbon emissions from tries to al:ow for needed growth in en- fossil fr.els return to their pre-1973 rate ergy use in the Third World.71 of growthmore than 4 percent per No nation has yet taken steps explicitly yearthe atmospheric concentration of geared toward limiting carbon emis- CO2 will reach double preindustrial lev- sions. Such limits also would curb other els in about 40 years. (See Table 9-1 fossil fuel pollutants, reducing acid rain On the other hand, holding that grow. and air pollution and thereby relieving to 1 percent per year would delay a CO2 threats to forests and to human health. doubling for more than a century. Indeed, without West Germany's 8-per- The goal oflimiting the annual growth cent decline in total energy consumption of carbon emissions to1 percent may between 1979 and 1984, air pollution have seemed utterly unrealistic 10 years damage to the nation's forests might ago. Now, however, it appears entirely have progressed even further than it feasible. For the decade following 1973, has.72 By focusing only on pollution con- worldwide carbon emissions grew at an trol technologiessuch as scrubbers for power plants and catalytic converters for encouragingly low average rate of 1.1 automobilesvirtually all nations are Table 9-6. Projected Dates for a neglecting opportunities to limit acid- Doubling of CO, Over Preindustrial forming pollutants and CO2 buildup simultaneously. Levels Given Different Rates of Growth As indicated earlier, synthetic chlo- in Fossil Fuel Emissions rofluorocarbons damage the earth's pro- Annual tective layer of ozone and also contrib- Worldwide Year CO2 ute substantiallyto climatic change. Growth in Concentration Lessening these threats requires reduc- Fossil Fuel WillHave tions in CFC emissions, and a worldwide Emissions Doubled ban on nonessential aerosol uses of CFCs would be a cost-effective first step. (percent) A few nations have already restricted or 4 2026 banned such uses. This action actually 3 2036 proved beneficial to the U.S. economy, 2 2054 with readily available substitutes saving 1 2100 consumers an estimated $165 million in souRce:Adapted from William W. Kellogg and 1983 alone. In September 1986, a trade Robert Schware, Climate Change and Satiety (Boul- group representing U.S. manufacturers d Colo.: Westvkw Press, 1981). and users of CFCs announced that it

191 Stabilizing Chemical Cycles (175) would support international limitson countries. Besides reducing health risks, CFC production, a significant policy use of unleaded fuel is essential for cata- shift. International negotiations regard- lyticconverters,thestate-of-the-art ing CFCs are in progress under theaus- technology for controlling the carbon pices oi the United Nations Environ- and nitrogen compounds emitted byau- ment Programme, but as of November tomobiles.75 1986 had resulted only in a framework More extensive toxicity testing ofsyn- for adopting control measures if theyare thetic chemicalsisurgently needed. deemed necessary." Thorough testing of a chemical, using Preserving forests and planting trees mice or rats, can take as longas five years can do much to minimize the threat of and cost up to $500,000. Short-term climate change. The clearing and burn- tests costing only a few hundred dollars ing of tropical forests adds perhaps 20 offer a useful screening mechanism for percenttothe amount of carbon setting priorities for additional testing. released to the atmosphere eachyear Adequately protecting the public, how- through fossil fuel combustion. Trees ever, will require that industries profit- also remove carbon dioxide from the air ing from the sale of chemicals takemore during photosynthesis, so increasing responsibilityfor ensuring chemical global forest cover would help stabilize safety." atmospheric CO2 levels, In mid-1985,a Under the amended U.S. law regulat- promising development emerged with ing pesticides, manufacturersmust show the unveiling of an ambitious tropical that new products do not poseunaccept- forest protection plan. Designed byan able health risks. Laws on othercatego- international task force coordinated by ries of chemicals, however, requiregov- the World Resources Institute of Wash- ernment regulators to demonstrate that ington, D.C., and supported by leading a chemical poses an unacceptable risk aid agencies, it calls for investmentsto- before taking action to restrictor ban it. taling $8 billion over five years intree Besides creating backlogs and requiring planting projects and efforts toarrest large expenditures of tax dollars, sucha deforestation.74 policy can allow harmful chemicalsto re- Threats to health from increasedex- main in use for n-a if-ars. J. Clarence posure to lead could be reduced cost- Davies of the Conservation Foundation effectively by phasing out theuse of lead points out that additional toxicitytest- in gasoline. In 1973, the United States ing, though expensive, in mostcases initiated regulations controlling lead in amounts to a small share of the total cost fuel, which have substantially reduced of producing a chemical.77 the amount of lead in the environment. Reduced reliance on potentially harm- EPA determined in 1985 thata further ful chemicals could also help minimize reduction in the allowable lead content health risks. Over the last two decades, of gasoline from 1.1 grams per gallonto for example, agricultural researchers 0.1 would yield health benefits farex- have developed techniques collectively ceeding the added costs petroleum known as integrated pest management refiners would incur. The agencyes- (IPM), which seeks to limit pest damage timated net benefits of at least $1.3 bil- while minimizing pesticideuse. It may lion (1983 dollars) for 1986 alone. That include, for example, introducingnatu- new lower limit is now in effect. Many ral predators to prey on pests, monitor- European nations are just introducing ing pest population levels and applying unleaded fuel, and standards an mini- chemicals only when necessary,or ap- mal or nonexistent in most Third World plying pesticides at the most vulnerable

192 (176) State cf theorle1-1987 point of a pest's life cycle. By reducing den's efforts to make acid rain a top pri- chemical costs, 1PM usually benefits ority on the international environmental farmers economically. In the Texas 1-fgh agenda, West Germany's call for stricter Plains, IPM programs to control the cot- pollution controls on European power ton boll weevil increased farmers' an- plants, and the recent enactment by nual net profits by $27 million.78 Austria, Sweden, and Switzerland of au- No nation acting alone can avert the tomobile pollution control standards costly consequences of altering the roughly equivalenttothoseinthe earth's chemistry. Air pollutants and United States are examples of the kind of acid rain waft easily across political leadership needed. boundaries. Carbon dioxide emissions Action by just a few countries can lead anywhere contribute to climate change to action by many. (See Chapter 11.) everywhere. Pesticides produced in one Ten nations initially made the commit- country may freely be traded for use in ment in March 1984 to reduce their sul- others. Yet translating shared risks into fur dioxide emissions by 30 percent cooperation aimed at minimizing them is within a decade; at present, 21 nations no easy task. A decision to place a hefty have joined in this pledge. Meaningful tax on fossil fuel combustion, for exam- reductions in worldwide carbon emis- ple, would have serious political and sions could begin with concerted mea- economic repercussions. Few nations sures by just three nationsChina, the would view it as in their interest to adopt Soviet Union, and the United States, the such a preventive measure without guar- world's largest users of coal. antees that others will do likewise. FossilfuelsandChemicalshave Many different institutions can help figured prominently in society's pursuit build the cooperation needed among for economic growth and higher stan- governments. The United Nations Envi- dards of living. Yet changes in the ronment Programme, the U.N. Eco- earth's chemistry wrought by their use nomic Commission for Europe, the threaten the integrity of natural systems European Economic Community, the upon which future growth and human WorldMeteorologicalOrganization, well-being depend. Alternatives to the and others have in various ways been in- present course exist. By failing to act, we strumental in achieving progress toward thrust upon ourselves and the next gen- global environmental management. But eration potential crises we have the ca- only with leadership from individual na- pacity to avert. tions will concrete measures result. Swe- 10 Designing Sus amble Econoles William U Chandler

The choice of who allocates resources is Europe, or that the subsequent oversup- crucial. In The Wealth of Nations, Adam ply on the timber market would hold Smith compiled spectacular examples of down prices. On the other hand, he government mismanagement and ar- might have felt vindicated by the price- gued that the market should be left free induced energy conservation response to allocate resources. Markets alone, he in the West since 1973, arguably the reasoned, could assemble and convey most significant conservation achieve- essential information about scarcity and ment of our time. value. Prices and profits would work to Traditional economics asks how to maximize production and minimize re- produce what for whom. Sustainable source use.' economics examines these same ques- Though overcutting of forests had al- tions, but includes future generations in ready become an issue in England by the -for whom." It asks how irreplace- 1776, when Smith published his classic able resourceswater, air, soil, and fish book, he argued that market mech- and wildlifecan be adequately con- anisms were sufficient to protect forests. served. It also recognizes that economic Growing scarcity would drive up the mechanisms that do not efficiently and equitably satisfy human needs are not price of wood, reduce consumption, as likely to be sustainable.2 well as prompt landowners to plant Sustainable economics analyzes issues more treesin anticipation of higher complicated by politics, ideology, and prices. nationalism. It tries to ascertain what He could not have predicted that acid works to make resource use more effi- rainwouldkillforestsinWestern cient. How do people behave in relation An expanded version of this chapter appeared as to their natural resources? How does a Worldwatch Paper 72. The Changing Role of the Mar. country's economic system alter its pros- ket in National Economies. pects for survival? The beginnings of an (178) Slate of theorld-1987 answer can be formed by measuring na- uninterrupted growth shaken, is debat- tional performance in food security, en- ing the need for economic reform. Ironi- ergy efficiency, environmental pollution, cally, although Western governments and equity. have also begun to sell off state-owned The issue is not socialism versus capi- concerns, they increasingly subsidize talism; it is the efficacy with which eco- private agriculture, restrict trade, and nomic systems achieve their intenaed permitconcentrationofeconomic ends. Ideally, nations could be graded power in industrial conglomerates. for degree of market orientation and as- The efficiency with which nations pro- sessed for changes in resource use. But duce food and consume energy provides no one has yet invented a grading systzm a useful indicator of their progress to- for economic philosophy or environ- ward sustainability. Countries of all po- mental sustainability.Itis instructive, :iticaltripes seek to avoid excessive de- nonetheless, to categorize nations as pendence on food imports. Air and centrally planned or not and to assess water pollution and land degradation their resource-use efficiency. A centrally are closely associated with agricultural planned economy is one that through production and energy-use efficiency. price controls, state ownership, or allo- Thus, if market pricing and competition cation of capitaleffectively manages provide greater efficiency, both econo- more than half of a nation's industrial mists and environmentalists have a stake and agricultural production. in the changing role of the market in the From the end of World War II until world's economies. recently, centralized state planning has served as a model for almost half the world. Newly independent Third World countries faced with the choice between centralized control and market orienta- EFFICIENCY IN AGRICULTURE tion usually chose the former. That their foreignrulershadbeencapitalists Some environmentalistsrejectboth turned them against market systems, markets and bureaucratic planning as in- while the tradition of colonialism eased capable of dealing with the crisis of sus- the transition to tight central control. In tainability.3 Putting a sober twist on an the postwar era, many military states and old joke, "In capitalism, man exploits even most market-oriented nations also man; in socialism, it's the other way expanded the role of government in the around,- they say both exploit nature. day-to-day management of their econo- But important differences exist betwcsa:.1 mies. systems, as shown by comparing their The world today is at a turning point efficiency in agricultural production. in economic management. The abrupt Agricultural production can critically Chinese shift to market mechanisms is affect the consumption and disruption of the most dramatic example, not only be- resourceswater, wood, and air. Soil cause of the vast number of people erosion and deforestation can result affected, but because of the reform's from low agricultural productivityif spectacular early successes. Many Afri- new, marginal lands are pressed into can nations, plagiwd with agricultural production to make up fbr lost potential. decline, have begun to extend market Overuse of chemicals can cause water incentives for agriculture. Latin Ameri- pollution. Efficiency is consequently an cans, burdened with debt, have moved essential ingredient of agricultural sus- to sell off state-owned companies. Mean- tainability. while the Soviet Union, its confidence in Economists define efficiency, roughly,

19t1 Designing Sustainable Economies (r79) as maximizing output while minimizing among the highest in Eastern Europe.5 input. When farmers produce a given The Hungarian model holds impor- value of grain with a least-cost combina- tant lessons for the rest of the world, for tion of land, labor, fertilizer, and ma- it shows that market economics can work chinery, production is efficient. When even in the absence of private landown- grain production increases faster than ership, as long as the producers effec- consumption of the inputs, productivity tively control their work.It was the and the outlook for sustained produc- Hungarian experiment, moreover, that tion improve. When productivity de- paved the way for the Chinese reforms. clines, a society is headed for trouble. Though inefficiency and shortages are Inflation, the need for costly imports, often associated with collective agricul- even famine can result. ture, three fourths of Hungarian agricul- Land and labor productivity, two par- tural landisstate- or cooperative- tial but important measures of perform- owned.Ironically,thru-fourthsof ance, reveal several advantages of mar- Poland's agricultural lapa, ,vith a much ket orientation. Crop production per lower productivity, is in 7,:ivate hands.6 hectare is generally higher in market-ori- ented countries. Of course, factors other than the economic system affect these ratings, such as rainfall levels, inherent Crop production per hectare is soil fertility, and farm price policies that gene:ally higher inmarket-ori- may either encourage or discourage ented countries. farm efficiency. Japan's population pres- sure, for example, has pushed it to in- crease land productivity, but this ex- Istvan Lang, Secretary General of the plains only about a third of the more Hungarian Academy of Sciences, ex- efficient record it has than the Soviet plains the Hungarian-Polish paradox in Union. The remainder is attributable to terms of incentives. Hungary produces policies that, among other things, keep two thirds more grain per hectare than prices high, encourage larger numbers Poland. Lang maintains that only 30 per- of people to farm, and keep farm size cent of this difference can be explained low. Similar policies have placed market- by the fertility of Hungarian soil, that is, oriented Hungary even higher in land by the resource endowment. The rest is productivity.4 attributable to policy measuresincen- Ranking nations by agricultural labor tives for production, and the technologi- productivity shows a dramatic advantage cal improvements these measures bring. for market economies. West European Noting that Hungarian farms are run countries enjoy labor productivity rates mainly by cooperatives, he says that the often double those of Eastern Europe, cooperatives "are real cooperatives,- while the United States outperforms the meaning that they are self-managing. Soviet Union by a factor of almost 20. The cooperatives, not the central state Only one third of the difference between apparatus, decide what they will grow the United States and the Soviet Union is and how they will grow it. If they choose due to the greater resource endowment to raise potatoes when meat is in de- of the former; the rest is due to policy. mand, then they lose money. But if they Labor productivity naturally tends to respond to the market and use their food be higher when farmers earn high in- production resources efficiently, they comes, which in turn indicates higher profit. They have an incentive to work levels of development, a central goal of hard and efficiently to produce what is economic policy. Again, Hungary ranks needed.7 196 (18o) -:3-1987 Hungarian state farkt, ..mers bear the cost of these distortions, a relatively small sha: )1. iying almost three times the import manage grain produ., _I emirt. ,rice for rice and other commodities.9 Growing specific pm Total factor productivity is relatively the managers can.2.- !dition. easy to determine in a perfectly competi- come from more rntr tion. tive economy. Ideally, price signals in- The nation distrihu: s these pr, 1urcts struct farmers on how much tO spend on without the excessive sto, production, and they maximize their and transportatior: earnings by choosing the least-cost com- in Eastern Europe. ov lilt is bination of labor, land, machinery, and an exportable fcrIllsuI pi= iC and fertilizer. According to microeconomic productivitythatr iavombly theory, they produce at the level at which with the West. Hur2, a- e an-ser to the cost of their last, or marginal, unit of critics who say that 7,t7-:' :,igricul- productiontheir most expensive ton of tural experiment is su,, urnw 'anly be- grainjust equals the price they receive. cause "China is China.- The hnes to buy They maximize profits in this case, mak- foodso commonin t h-c, centrally ing efficiency and productivity almost planned economies do not exist in Hun- synonymous. In nonmarket economies, gary. on the other hand, prices of resources The low Polish agricultural land pro- usually do not reflect their scarcity, and ductivity cannot be attributed to private so resources must be allocated by plan, ownership per se, but rather to the im- a fact that directly affects productivity. passe resulting from the central control Lung-Fai Wong, a U.S. economist, has imposed on Poland's farmers. Strictly extensively analyzed productivity trends regulated prices reduce profitability for in centralized agricultural economies. farmers, and deprive them of capital to Between 1960 and 1980, total agricul- invest in machinery and fertilizers to tural productivity declined in the Soviet raise productivity. Following World War Union, China, and all Eastern European II, Polish farmers were reluctant to make countries. The Soviets, Romanians, and such investments for fear that their hold- Poles experienced declines of more than ings would be nationalized, and the state one third. By contrast, the United States was unwilling to invest in private land. and japan over this period increased As a result, Poland still has 1.6 million total productivityand from far higher horses doing the work of tractors and levels. (See Figure 10-1.) If the long- trucks. It is not uncommon to see farm- term decline of total productivity in So- ers harvesting wheat or hay by hand, viet agriculture continues, it will become using only scythes. Poland, once the more difficult to sustain the country eco- breadbasket of Europe, now has to im- nomically.19 port food from the West.9 Wong notes that while total productiv- Land productivity says little about the ity declined in centrally planned nations' "total factor" productivity of an agricul- farm sectors, land and labor productivity tural system, which also takes into ac- increased. He attributes this apparent count inputs of labor, fertilizer, and ma- inconsistency to inefficient allocation of chinery or animals. Efficiency can be fertilizer and machinery. Bonuses paid distorted and productivity diminished by to Soviet state farms to meet quotas poorly crafted policies. For example, push them to use excessive amounts of high price subsidies and protective trade fertilizer. Their incentive is not to maxi- barriers account for part of the relatively mize yields while cutting costs, but to high land productivity in Japan. Con- meet quotas. Soviet cooperatives have

197 Designing Sustainable Economies (18r) Index have grown as much since 1978as dur- 150 ing the preceding 30 years." In the West, resource efficiency in the United States agricultural sector is frequently under- mined by heavy farm production subsi- 100 dies, both with trade barriers and direct budgetary expenditures. In 1980, these policies cost the United States the equiv- alent of 18 percent of the value of U.S. 50 Soviet Union agricultural output. But by 1983, they cost almost half the total value. Tax- Sources: Wong, Agriculiura payer subsidies alone were projected to Prodectivily; Cobb el exceed $30 billion in 1986." "Economic indicators" The United States is by nomeans unique among market-orientedcoun- 1960 1970 1980 1990 tries in failing to adjust agricultural poli- Figure 10-1. Total Agricultural Productivity for cies properly. Japanese farm price poli- the United States and the Soviet Union, 1960-84 cies cost that nation'sconsumers and taxpayers 62 percent of the value of more incentive to cut costs, but re- apan's agricultural output in1980, sources are allocated by central govern- though this was reduced to 51 percent ment planners rather than at the farm by 1983. Common Market countries'ag- level. Overall, improvements in yields ricultural policies drive pricesone fourth per hectare and per worker have been above world market levels on mostpro- won at the expense of inefficient use of ducts. Such subsidies hurt rr.t only do- fertilizer and tractors." mestic consumers, but also Third World Post-Mao China provides a rare and exporters who could produce more effi- vast laboratory for testing the effect of ciently art:i sell cheaper. The policies greater reliance on market mechanisms have the aim of preserving and sustain- in agriculture. Farming in China until ing the farm sector and its way of life. 1978 was modeled on the Soviet system. But the goal could be equally well served But in December of that year the Chi- without the damage caused by price dis- nese decided to switch to market-ori- tortions if governments substituted di- ented agriculture. The shift boosted rect income transfet s for agricultural grain output by a third between 1978 price supports." and 1986, and yielded improvements in Western nations, nonetheless, have per capita consumption that stand in long satisfied basic food and fiber needs, marked contrast to Soviet trends. The and government policies have playeda change als1 doubled oilseed production major role in this success. When policies and raised that of meat 80 percent. Sig- such as minimum price supportsare in- nificantly,thisgrowth was achieved troduced in order to ensure foodsecu- along with a 4-percent reduction in cul- rity and stabilize marketsthat is, when tivated area, as highly erodible landwas supports are set below international idled, and a decline in water and pesti- market levelsthey can be useful. When cide use. Shifting to the market spurred supports exceed world market levels, a dramatic increase in fertilizer use, a however, they interfere with trade, stim- near doubling within eight years. The ulate environmentally disruptiveover- increases in output and efficiency trans- production, and waste taxpayers' and lated into higher rural incomes, which consumers' money. These distortions,

198 (182) StaLe of the World-1987 like their more pervasive counterparts in Table 10-1. Efficiency of Energy Use, planned economies, have political moti- Selected Countries, 1983 vations that may well be worthy. But their impact on environmental and eco- Country Energy Use nomic sustainability cannot be ignored. (megajoules per Ultimately they become counterproduc- dollar of GNP) tive. Market-Oriented France 8.6 Sweden 8.6 Japan 9,7 Spain 11,8 ENERGY EFFICYENCIES West Germany 11.8 Energy sustains modern societies. It not Italy 12.9 only reduces drudgery and makes inhos- United Kingdom 17,2 pitable climates habitable, it substitutes United States 19,3 for scarce resources. Energy permits us to replace copper with aluminum, wood Centrally Planned with iron, time with speed. It has been Yugoslavia 21,5 sanctified by economists with a place in Poland 26,9 their production functionsequations East Germany 29.0 that incorporate labor, capital, and other Czechoslovakia 30.1 32,3 factors into least-cost combinations. En- Soviet Union ergy inefficiency can undermine a soci- Romania 37,6 ety's sustainabilky. In the worst case, Chinai 40.9 pollution resulting from inefficient use Hunga 49.5 may make entire regions uninhabitable. 'Though the agricultural sectors of these econo- Romania and Hungary each use twice mies are now market-oriented, their industrial sec- tors are centrally controlled. as much energy per unit of gross na- souRce: Worldwatch Institute, based on energy tional product as the United States, and consumption data and dollar GNPs in World Re- five times as much as France or Sweden. sources Institute/International Institute for Envi- (See Table 10-1.) Stated otherwise, if ronment and Development. World Resources 1986 (New York: Basic Books, 1986): dollar GNPs for Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are adjusted were to increase their incomes to West- 1980 levels estimated in Paul Marer, Dollar GNPs of ern levels, they would need twice as the USSR and Eastern Europe (Baltimore, Md.: The much energy per capita as Western na- Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985). tions. Their poor ranking is related in part to their stage of developmentthey Economic Mechanism, attributesthis have poorly developed service sectors. fact to markup pricing. Industry deter- But their industries are highly energy- mines prices for its finished products on inefficient in both the economic and the a cost-plus basis; the higher the input physical sense. And sustained develop- costs, the larger its net share of reve- ment, of any type, is unlikely without en- nues. Becaus.. the net "profits" are dis- ergy efficiency as fossil fuel supplies tributedasbonuses, managers and dwindle and the environmental impacts workers actually have an incentive to of fuel use worsen.15 consume energy.16 No national economy is more energy- Hungarian economist Janos Kornai inefficient than Hungary'sjosef Bognár, describes this phenomenon in terms of who helped develop that country's New -soft and hard budget constraints." A

199 Designing Sustainable Economies (183) budget constraint is soft if cost increases using 31 gigajoules of energyper ton can be passed on, or if government will compared with the Japanese standard of bail out an industry rather than lose the 19 gigajoules. An importantreason for firm's production or create unemploy- this is a lag in innovation of new technol- ment. In such a case, little discipline or ogy. The Soviet Union, like all of Eastern incentive exists to bring aboutenergy Europe, trails far behind the West in the efficiency improvements. International use of the more efficient basic oxygen trade, to some extent, does providean furnace. In Japan, this furnace has, along impetus to cut costs in order to compete with the electric-are one, completelyre- with more efficient producers. Heavy de- placed the obsolete open-hearth fur- pendence on trade is an importantrea- nace. The Soviets, however, still use the son why resource-poor Japan is so effi- open hearth to produce over half their cient. Hungary also depends heavilyon stee1.1° exports, which the government often Other centrally plannedeconomies subsidizes to earn foreign exchange. also rely heavily on this outmoded, The soft budget constraint reflects poli- inefficient technology. Even East Ger- cies governing all of Eastern Europe, the many, with its reputation for technical Soviet Union, much of the Third World, prowess, uses the open-hearth furnace and an increasing share of the Western for 45 percent of its steel production. economies." Moreover, the Soviets recyclevery little steel. They have lagged far behind the West in the adoption of the electric-arc Sustained development is unhkely furnace, which is usually fed almostex- without .1.nergy efficiencyas fossil clusively with recycledscrap instead of fuel supplies dwindle and the envi- virgin iron ore.w ronmental impacts of fueluse A clear demarcation thus exists be- worsen. tween market-oriented and centrally planned economies in energyas well as agriculture. Where governmentsdi- rectly control industrial production,en- Gábor Hoványi, a Hungarian indus- ergy efficiency is low. Centrally planned trial economist, argues that in addition economies would probably createmore to markup pricing and soft budgets, en- goods and services with a given level of ergy efficiency is affected by policies that resources if they relied more on markets. reduce trade, limit foreign exchange, But that does not mean that markets distort wages, and reduce investment. alone can keep nationswithinthe These factors critically affect innovation, bounds of . which is essential if growth is to cOntinue Even less does it mean that the market without exhausting resources. Innova- alone will solve problems of inequity and tions for energy efficiency in steelmaking human need. offer a basis for comparing performance in market-based and centrally planned economies because steel has long been an essential component of industrializa- tion. It is also the world's foremostener- gy-consuming industrial activity.18 EQUITY QUESTIONS Though the Soviet Union now leads Any change in economic policy will the world in total tons of steel produced, touch the most basic humanconcerns. it is close to last in energy efficiency, At stake are this generation's abilityto 200 (184) State of theorld-1987 buy food, shelter, and fuel, and future Table 10-2. Income in 1983 and Income generations' prospects to produce these Distribution, Circa 1980, for Selected necessities from the resources they will Cour.tries inherit. Those prospects depend on the resource husbandry of the present gen- Average eration, for depletion of soils, forests, Income of fisheries, and energy sources can be Poorest catastrophic. The consequences of ne- Economy EquityFifth of glect can be seen in the famine and relo- Coun Typei Ratio2 Population cation of people in northern Ethiopia, (1983 where soils will no longer support agri- dollars) culture and forests have disappeared. For this reason, the fairness with which Romania 1,690 centrally planned and market-oriented East 3,660 systems distribute resources among peo- Germany ple and between generations is vital. Japan 4 4,545 Equity means different things to dif- Soviet Union 4 2,345 ferent people. Definitions range from West 5 4,570 equal incomes to equal opportunities. Germany Equity can be gauged with such mea- sures as income distribution, longevity, Poland 5 1,630 and infant mortality. Calculation of the Spain 6 1,680 equity ratio permits easy comparison of United 6 3,170 how income is distributed between the Kingdom rich and the poor within a nation. The Hungary3 6 1,650 equity ratio is the income share of the Sweden 6 4,340 richest 20 percent of a population di- vided by that of the poorest 20 percent. India 7 90 Here, income share includes nonmone- Yugoslaviu 7 970 tary benefits such as special shopping Italy 7 1,905 privileges, housing allowances, and re- South Korea 8 600 creational facilities provided for an elite United States 8 3,522 in some countries. Ranking nations by equity ratio shows Chinaa 8 n.a. no clear advantage for either centrally Thailand 8 240 planned or market economies. (See France 9 2,600 Table 10-2.) East Germany and Ro- Philippines 10 190 mania are slightly more egalitarian than Brazil 13 470 most, but many Western nationsmuch iCentrally planned (C) or market-oriented (M). richer oneshave similar distribution 2Ratio of income received by richest and poorest fifths of the population, rounded to the nearest levels. The equity ratios of japan and whole number.3Refers to total economy; the West Germany are only slightly worse market-orientedagriculturalsectorrepresents than that of East Germany. A poor West only one fifih-of the economy.4Distribution German would on average be much figures used here predate the December 1978 eco- nomic reforms. richer in absolute termsby over $900 SOURCES: World Bank. World Development Report per yearthan a poor East German. A 1986 (New York: Oxford University Press. 1986): poor East German, on the other hand, Christian Morrisson. "Income Distribution in East would on average be more than $100 per European and Western Countries," Journal of Com- yearricher than a poor American, parative Economics, June 1984. 201 Designing Sustainable Economies (1.85) though a poor American would be nearly be a direct conflict between efficiencyof $1,200 per year richer thana poor So- resource use and unemployment, which viet. Countries that have justified central may be seen as a conflict between gener- control for equity purposes have little ations, for inefficiency inresource use advantage in equity and compare poorly reduces future prospects. in absolute income.21 Future generations, if they couldpar- Income statistics reveal only oneas- ticipate in the matter, might well askhow pect of equity. Ready access to health market-oriented and centrally planned care, for example, is another important economies are husbanding theresources factor in the equation. Longevity and in- on which their well-being will depend. fant mortality rates reveal much about Although the environmental problems the quality of life and human s,.;rvicesin of the West are well known, information a country. A ranking based on average from centrally controlled economiesis life spans shows market-orientedcoun- sketchy. But evidence is mounting that tries at the top, although both market environmental disruption in thesena- and nonmarket countries (China, Egypt, tions is severe. When Marshall Goldman the Philippines, and South Korea, forex- wrote The Spoils of Progress, in 1972, he ample) are found in the lower ranks. showed that environmental pollution Market-oriented countries also have the problems are as familiar to socialismas lowest rates of infant mortality. Their to capitalism. Today, however, the effi- relative advantage probably lies in high- ciency improvements made by Western er-quality health care made possible with market-oriented nations, combined with higher incomes. Smoking and drinking regulatory policies to correct market fail- tend to be less prevalent in the West, ures, have begun to ameliorate pollution which means reduced disease.22 problemswhilethoseincentrally Leaders who would make theirecono- planned economies worsen.24 mies more market-orientedmay also Even in the early seventies itwas pause to consider the problem of unem- becoming difficult to findan unpolluted ployment. Chronic unemployment and river in the Soviet Union. Goldmanre- the spawning of a permanent underclass ported that fish kills had occurred all rank among the West'smost serious over the country, especially in the Volga, problems. The Soviet Union'saccom- Ural, and Dnepr rivers. He foundwater plishmentofzerounemployment, use in steel mills to be 40 to 150 percent though it has been achievedat the cost higher than in the United States,and of great labor inefficiency,may neverthe- similar water-use inefficiency in refiner- less be seen as an important attainment, ies and agriculture. Sulfur dioxide and particularly when compared with 7per- nitrogen oxide emissions approachedle- cent unemployment in the United States thal levels in some areas,not unlike the and 10 percent average unemployment deadly smogs of Donora, Pennsylvania, in Western Europe.25 and London, England, ofmany years At the same time, reformers in Eastern ago. Toxic emissions of lead and fluo- Europe understand that the only short- ride were permitted in large quantities. term alternative to inefficiency and stag- Lead concentrations inone city in east- nation may be to "shed labor." The pain ern Kazakhstan reached 14 times the of this step can be eased by providinga maximum permissible leve1.25 social safety net of unemployment ben- Timber in the Ukraine had nearly dis- efits or "make-work," but these require appeared, Goldman reported, and coal the political skill to effectan income surface-mining, with its profoundly dis- transfer from the employed. Theremay ruptive effects, had proliferated.Natural

202 (i86) State of heorld-1987 areas, including spectacular Lake Baikal, fur dioxide and particulate emissions the world's largest and oldest freshwater that pour over populations living in in- lake, have been exploited and seriously dusuial squalor. Ancient buildings and a disrupted. Some 50 factories were built wealth of history and culture in Krakow during the sixties along Lake Baikal's are being damaged by the pollution. shores and four fifths of them dis- Forests around Katowice show clear charged their raw wastes into the water. effects of sulfur dioxide, ozone, and hy- Goldmanconcluded,"Unfortunately drocarbon emissions. One third of the the rape of Lake Baikal shows that public forest area in southwestern Poland has greed and lust can be as destructive as been affected; many young trees are al- private greed and lust.-26 ready dead or dying.29 China also exemplifies the fact that central planning does not internalize en- Forests around Katowice show vironmental pollution costs but leaves them for future generations to bear. En- cleareffects of sulfur dioxide, vironmentaldestructionexistedin ozone, and hydrocarbon emissions. China before the communist military vic- tory in 1949, but it has intensified since. Deforestation is China's biggest envi- More recently, Goldman noted that ronmental problem: Large areas of trees the Soviet Union has made some prog- were cut down to provide charcoal for ress in environmental protection. Fish backyard steel furnaces during Mao's have returned to the Moscow River, and Great Leap Forward. Planned tree-cut- air and water pollution have been re- ting in Sichuan Province during the six- duced. The Soviets may also be relying ties exceeded sustainable yields by 160 more heavily on natural gas to reduce percent. Overall, forest area between environmenta! burdens. But the scant 1949 and 1980 declined by a quarter. literature available in the West on Soviet One reform recently undertaken to re- pollution suggests that the problems re- verse this is to give incentives to peas- main serious and uncorrected. The re- ants to plant and nurture trees: -Who- cent disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear ever afforests the land owns the trees.- power plant reinforces the impression The goal is to extend forest cover to 20 that Soviet safeguards against environ- percent of land area by the year 2000.29 mental disruption are weak.27 The environmental failures of cen- Poland is another example of the fail- trally planned nations thus rank along- ure of central planning to control pollu- side those of market-oriented econo- tion. American analyst Stanley j. Kabala mies. The former failed to internalize recently noted that a by-product of that environmental costs because incentives country's Stalinist economy is"hun- were provided to managers to boost pro- dreds of miles of rivers unfit for any use duction. Moreover, the resources al- and air pollution in nearly every major located to the managers reflected no city 50 times worse than permissible lim- scarcity value, no opportunity cost, no its- (emphasis in original). An analysis of real pricethe cost of using the re- Poland's environment prepared by plan- source was essentially irrelevant. The ner Andrzej Kassenberg confirms this absence of prices and competition led to observation. Kassenberg has mapped inefficiency as well as widespread envi- extensive areas of environmental disrup- ronmental abuse. tion due to toxic pollution, acid rain, and Energy productivity trends show a oxygen depletion in rivers. A visit to marked divergence between some cen- Upper Silesia reveals uncontrolled sul- trally planned and most market-oriented Designing Sastainable Economies (187) economic systems. Energyuse per unit Table 10-3. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, of output from 1970 to 1983 increased Selected Countries, 1982 in Bulgaria, Romania, the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia. West Europeancoun- Country Emissions tries meanwhile reduced consumption per unit of output by an average of 14 (kilograms per percent over that 13-year period. Since $1,000 GNP) 1970, the Uaited States dramaticallyre- Market-Orien ed duced energy consumptionper unit of Japan' outputby 30 percent. The Soviet Sweden 4 Union, however, still requiresan addi- France 5 tional 1.2 percent ofenergy for each 1 West Germany 5 percent of economic growth." (See Fig- United States 7 ure 10-2.) United Kingdom 8 Increasing energy use bodes ill for fu- Canada' 18 ture generations not only because fuels could be exhausted. Energyuse is di- Centrally Planned rectly related to air, water, and landdeg- Soviet Union 19 radation, as extensive damage in Europe Romania 28 related to acid rain makes clear. Com- Hungary 31 paring nations' performances in control- East Germany 35 ling sulfur emissions providesa more di- Czechoslovakia 40 rect measure of how economicsystems 'Data for 1980. affect future generations by diminishing SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute, basedon data in the resource base. OECD. OECD Environmental Data, Compmdinnt1985 Ranking nations by sulfur dioxide (Paris: 1985); N. H. Highton and M. J. Chadwick, "The Effects of Changing Patterns ofEnergy Use emissions per dollar of GNP showsa on Sulfur Emissions and Depositions in Europe." sharp demarcation between East and Ambio, Vol. 11, No, 6. 1982: WorldBank, World West. (See Table 10-3.) Czechoslova- Development Report 1984 (New York: OxfordUni- kia's rate is eight times that of West Ger- versity Press, 1984): and Paul Marer. DollarGxps of the USSR and Eastern Europe (Baltimore,Md.:The Megajoules Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985). 50 many. The Soviet rate is almost triple that of the United States. Thoughthe Soviet Union United States emitsa quarter of sulfur dioxide gas worldwide, since the_early seventies it has cut per capita sulfurdi- 30 - States oxide emissions by a third while theSo- viet Union has increased emissionsby a similar proportion. 20 - (1980 dollars) East European and Sovietrates of sul- fur emissions are highas a result of their 10- Sources: Hewett, economic strategy, as wellas the depen- 1984; Mom 1985; dence on coal in Eastern Europe andan U.& Dept. of Energy almost complete lack of emissionscon- trol there and in the Soviet Union. 1970 1975 19. This 1985 is paralleled in the West byWest Ger- Fiwure 10-2. Energy Consumption Per Dollar of many's abserice of auto emissionscon- GNP for the United States and the Soviet Union, trols and by the failure of theUnited 1970-82 States and the United Kingdomto join 204 (r88) State of the rld-1987 nations agreeing to reduce sulfur diox- could well make the next century better ide emissions by 30 percent. But in dam- balanced between the two. A shift back age per unit of output, Western nations toward markets has been prompted by do far better than centrally planned five recent developments: Mao's death ones. and his legacy of underdevelopment in Sustainable economics, in summa China, the debt crisis in Latin America, puts forward two criteria for choice of the crisis of famine and underdevelop- investment or consumption as being ment in Africa, chronic underdevelop- particularly valuable: the net present- ment in South Asia, and burgeoning value criterion and the conservation cri- deficits in the West. These economic terion. The former represents efficiency dilemmas have their roots in resource and merely says that the investment has use, and policy responses to them con- to be a good one, one that maximizes cern environmentalists as well as econo- output while minimizing the cost of in- mists. puts. Under the theory of sustainability, Worldwide, government enterprises it is a condition that can be met, how- produce about one third of the world's ever, only as long as the conservation industrial output. Dependence on state criterion is met. That is, the use of agri- firms ranges from being almost exclusive in the Soviet Union to being minimal in cultural land can be maximized as long the United States. (See Table 10-4.) as the productivity of the resource can Western nations generally own or con- be maintained. trol less than 10 percent of their national Only if the conservation criterion is output, with the important exceptions of met first and the present-value criterion the United Kingdom, Italy, and France. fulfilled second can both inter- and in- Even in Hungary, the most market-ori- tragenerational equity be achieved. Mar- ented East European nation, two thirds kets alone cannot accomplish this, but of nonagricultural output is produced by to a large degree they offer a self-admin- state enterprises. Third World countries istering check on resource waste: The fall between the East and West on the resource user pays for inefficiency. Non- spectrum of state ownership. market systems lack this internal correc- The Chinese reforms announced in tion. Theoretically, centrally planned December 1978 represented a major economies could make resource conser- turning point in world economic man- vation a high priority. But the evidence agement. Mao's Great Leap Forward of to date shows that they have not. And the late fifties had caused enormous economic as well as psycho' Igical theo- losses of production, even famine. That ries suggest that without meaningful policy was followed by retrenchment, price signals as a prompt, they are not then by the violent Cultural Revolution likely to do so effectively. from 1966 to 1976. During this period China decentralized economic control, but put decision-making authority in the hands of local and provincial bureau- crats rather than the marketplace. CHANGING RELIANCE ON Economic stagnation followed Mao's campaign to make China's regions self- MARKETS sufficient, and pressure mounted for If the nineteenth century was the age of change. In the countryside, where 80 the free market, the twentieth is the age percent of the Chinese live, incomes in of the state. Current trends, however, the two decades before the death of Mao

205 Designing Sustainable Economies (189) Table 10-4. Estimated Role of State-Owned Enterprises inSelected Economies, Circa 1980

State Share of Share of Share of Total Capital Country Steel Industry Coal Industry Investment (approximate fraction) (percent) Romania all all 95 Soviet Union all all 95 Hungary all all 66 China all all 66 Poland all all 66 Egypt n.a. 48 Pakistan all 47 India all 34 Mexico all 33 South Korea 1/2 33 Brazil all 23 United Kingdom all 17 Italy 15 Spain 1/2 1/2 15 Thailand 13

France 3/1 all 12 Japan 11 West Germany 11 Australia 0 10 United States 0 4 souttcEs: -Privatization: Everybody's Doing It, Differently," The Economki,December 21, 1 Mary M. Shirley, Managing Staie-Owned Enterpices, World Bank Staff WorkingPaper No. 577 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1983). grew by less than 10 percent. Rationing New pricing policies gave farmers in- was common, and a third of the grain centives to increase output. At first, they consumed in cities had to be imported. were obligated to deliver a minimum Over a third of the state-owned enter- quota to the government at a fixed price. prises lost money in 1976.31 A higher price for deliveries over quota The 1979 reforms have within onlya was then applicable, a premium that few years increased China's agricultural reached 50 percent for grain. Because output by more than half, rural incomes retail prices were still set artificially low, by two thirds, and industrial production budget subsidies for agriculture reached by two thirds. By 1986, private retailers approximately $23 billion in 1983,some supplied Beijing with a third of itsvege- 42 percent of budgetrevenues. The tables, eggs, and beef, and Hebei Prov- state's contract procurement system did ince with two thirds or more of itsvege- not match the demand of consumers tables and eggs.32 with new yuan to spend, and thegovern- 206 (190) State of the WorldI 987 ment accumulated expensive Western- Table 10-5. Movements Toward Market style surpluses. Producer prices and Orientation of Industry in the Eighties, quotas were consequently reduced for Selected Countries many items in 1985, and retail prices were increased.33 National- Reforms Other developing countries have been Country ization' Announced2 pushed by fiscal difficulties and mount- Argentina 1946 Seli SOEs, 1986 ing external debt to sell state-owned Bangladesh 1971 Sell SOEs, 1982 companies. (See Table 10-5.)Brazil Brazil 1940s Sell SOEs, 1983 owns almost 500 companies, five times China 1953 Permit POEs, as many as in 1960. It intends to sell the 1983 smaller of these, and to sell shares of energy-related concerns that dominate France 1981 Sell SOEs, 1986 the state-company budget of Brazil. Hungary 1949 Pricing, 1980s Shares of Petrobras, the national oil India 1956 Deregulation, company, were already up for sale in 1982, 1986 1985, though the main motivation may Indonesia 1957 Promote POEs have been to avert the need to raise $400 million in taxes to pay for Petrobras' Italy Sell SOEs, 1983 losses. Brazil is not likely to relinquish Japan Sell SOEs, 1985 control of the larger state-owned enter- Mexico 1950s Sell SOEs, 1985 prises.34 Nigeria 1960s Sell SOEs, 1986 Brazil's new civilian government finds Pakistan 1972 Deregulation, itself confronted not just with a foreign 1979 debt of $100 billionand with a debt service that costs 5 percent of gross do- Philippines Sell SOEs, 1986 mestic product (GDP)but with an en- South Korea Deregulation, trenched economic bureacracy. The 1986 World Bank estimates that the govern- Spain 1939 Sell SOEs, 1980s ment itself allocates resources to or con- Thailand Sell SOEs, 1980s trols enterprises producing 40-46 per- cent of GDP. This fact, according to one Turkey Sell SOEs, 1985 Bank study, suggests -that governmen- United 1960s Sell SOEs, 1979 tal decisions have, to a considerable ex- Kingdom tent, replaced the price mechanism in United States Deregulation, determining the composition of invest- 1979 ment and, hence, the emerging structure West Sell SOE shares, of productive capacity."35 Germany 1984 Mexico outranks even Brazil in num- 'Includesboth partial and total nationalizations ber of state-owned enterprises. The gov- of the industrial sector.2SOEsstate-owned en- ernment reserves to itself production of terprises; POEs privately owned enterprises. oil, steel, chemicals, shipbuilding, and souRm Worldwatch Institute. railroads. State ownership has concen- trated debt and thus contributed to Mex- tated Maoist and Stalinist economic poli- ico's crisis. The government announced cies, have been slow to adopt reforms that it will sell 200 of its enterprises, despite the pressure of near collapse. partly to shed debt, and in 1985 it sold Tanzania under President Julius Nyerere some hotels and small industries.36 copied the Maoist model. Nyerere has African nations, many of which imi- retired, but Tanzania remains exceed-

207 Designing Sustainable Economies (x9r) ingly poor and underdeveloped, yet progress remains slow. The African De- wedded to a Chinese model that no velopment Bank associatesindustrial longer exists. lethargy with nonmarket control. But it Nyerere's friend in revolution, Presi- notes that markets are becoming more dent Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, has important in Africa's economies. A re- been determined not to repeat Tan- cent report concluded that -it would zania's mistakes. Mugabe has retained seem that the overall direction of change market mechanisms while implementing is towards more market freedom, more specific measures to reduce inequity and emphasis on producer incentives, in- underdevelopment. Most notably, he creased resource allocation to agricul- has provided incentives for farmers on ture, and the reform of the public sector tribal lands while permitting larger com- to ensure greater profitability."40 mercial farms to continue to operate. The African Development Bank cites Programs to reduce infant mortality and Ghana, Mali, Zaire, and Zambia as exam- to provide measures have ples of nations that have begun the diffi- received high priority. Zimbabwe under cult reforms. Ghana has devalued itscur- Mugabe's rule is one of the few success rency, freed up prices, and removed stories on a troubled continent.97 subsidies, especially for petroleum pro- Egypt, with a population approaching ducts. Mali has privatized many of its 50 million and an economy riddled with state-owned enterprises. Zambia has de- subsidies and inefficiencies, must import valued its currency by 60 percent.41 massive amounts of almost everything. Twenty-five percent of the country's na- tional budget goes to pay for food and Markets are becoming more impor- energy price subsidies, State-owned en- terprises have dominated the industrial tant in Africa's economies. sector of the Egyptian economy since 1961, when the means of production were nationalized. Almost 20 percent of South Asia suffers from neither Latin GDP is used for public investment. Pub- America's debt nor Africa's famine, but lic enterprises are expected to serve so- is experimenting with economic change cial goals in the process of producing because its economies also remain seri- goods, particularly to absorb labor. The ously underdeveloped. India has led the enterprises are virtually powerless to fire way in reform, although Pakistan and unproductive workers.98 Bangladesh have also made changes. Throughout Africa, agriculture re- India had in 1956 formally restricted to mains underdeveloped and low in pro- state enterprises the rail, air, communi- ductivity, a situation for which some gov- cations, power, insurance, heavy extrac- ernments bear direct responsibility. The tive, and defense industri..n. Thesesec- Organization of African Unity heads of tors were given additional flexibility in state met in 1985 and adopted a measure 1982 when a dual-price policyone for recommending allocation of at least 20 delivery of government quotas, one for percent of total investment to agricul- the open marketwas implemented. ture. Their Priority Programme also Described as a radical change, it was de- calls on nations to provide necessary in- signed to help overcome the shortages centives for farmers, including price in- that have stymied the economy since the cen dyes .39 sixties.42 Manufacturing accounts for only 11 The cement industry in India has percent of African economic output, and shown the first positive results. In the 208 (192) State of theVorld-1987 early eighties, for the first time, it more Table 10-6. Wheat and Rice Producer than met its production goals. The in- Prices in Selected Countries, Compared crease in cement production from 1980 with World Market Price, Circa 1982 to 1985, in fact, equalled that of the preceding 25 years. Indian agriculture Country or Group WheatRice has also been liberalized, with the gov- (percent of ernment mainly providing price guaran- world price) tees that have generally been unneces- Japan 380 330 sary,as they have been set below South Korea 220 210 acceptable market prices." Turkey Western nations, meanwhile, are also 120 190 becwning more market-oriented in in- Kenya 165 145 dustrial policy. Japan, France, and West European Con n on Market 125 140 Germany have all begun to sell state- ° wned enterprises and their shares in United States 115 130 companies. Western Europe in particu- Bangladesh 75 85 India 100 80 lar has been forced by large budgetary Philippines deficits to denationalize industry. n.a. 80 The United States, at least in terms of Pakistan 85 75 ownership of the means of production, Thailand remains the most market-oriented major n.a. 75 economic power in the world. With only Brazil 65 a small percentage of GNP generated by Tanzania ILL 50 state companies and some private de- Egypt 95 45 fense contractors that are virtually gov- Yugoslavia 55 n.a. ernment appendages, the country has sourtccs:World Bank, ll'add Development tort moved even further to reduce govern- 1986 (Ne Oxford University Press, 1986); Hans Binswanger andPi..Scandizzo, -Patterns of ment's role in the economy Y! recently Agricultural Protection," World Bank, Washing- closed down the mammoth Synthetic ton, D.C, November 15, 1983; World Bank, Com- Fuels Corporation, for example, which modity Trade and Prire Trends (Baltimore, Md.: The the Carter administration created to Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985). subsidize oil substitutes. The most im- portant market reorientation, however, Elsewhere, governments hobble agri- came when President Carter deregu- culture with underpayment rather than lated petroleum prices. He also set in overpayment. The Soviet Union, which motionotherimportanteffortsat under Stalin paid farmers only about deregulation, particularlyintrucking one eighth of the value of their products, and air transportation.44 continues to underpay them. The global Yet governments worldwide have re- imbalance in agricultural policy reached sisted market reforms for agriculture. a new height in 1986 when the United Western nations continue to subsidize States agreed to export part of a wheat farm production, and distortion of agri- surpluscreated by subsidiesto fill a cultural prices everywhere in the West Soviet wheat deficit created by central has become extreme. Rice is heavily pro- planning." tected and subsidized in Japan. Western Worldwide, marketreorientation Europe and the United States also main- through the mid-eighties has left the en- tain policies that create large distortions. vironmentallyimportantnaturalre- (See Table 10-6.) As indicated earlier, sourceindustries almost untouched. these programs cost the U.S. govern- Though private companies still control ment at least $30 billion in 1986.45 oil production in Australia, Canada, the

209 Designing Sustainable Economies (193) United Kingdom, the United States, and products that drive their prices to twice West Germany, governments control oil the U.S. retail price, which is largelyun- suppliesinBrazil,Mexico, Nigeria, affected by controls or taxes. Saudi Arabia, the Soviet Union, and In sum, a dramatic shift has occurred Venezuela.47 in the structure of national economies: Over half of all coal, perhaps the most The century-long trend toward greater noxious fuel, is produced or consumed government control has ended. This by government plan. The largest state shifthas not involved the essential producers are China and the Soviet macroeconomic measures that balance Union, which together produce and use and stabilize economic systems, but over one third of the world's coal. Many rather the details of production and allo- major market-oriented nations own their cation of resources. Government inter coal-producing enterprises,including vention for enhancing the environmen- 100 percent of the coal industry in tal sustainability of nations is increasing, France, India, and the United Kingdom though possibly not quickly enough. But and half of it in West Germany." many nations, having drawn the bounda- ries of sustainability, are increasingly leaving the internal workings of econo- The century-long trend toward mies to market mechanisms. Those that greater government control has have shiftednotably China, Hungary, ended. and Zimbabweare reaping there- wards. Those that have notBrazil, Mexico, and Egyptare headed for trouble. Nations falling between these At least half of all steel, and the at- extremesIndia and Pakistanare tendant environmental burden, isro- making slow progress toward greater duced by governments. The Soviet economic and environmental efficiency. Union and Eastern Europe produce al- most one third of all steel. The govern- ments of Brazil, France, India,Italy, Mexico, South Korea, and the United Kingdom own at least three quarters of their nations' steel-producing capacity, TOWARD A BALANCE and those of Belgium and Spain own half The world of the late eighties facesa of theirs. Of the major steel-producing growing rift in incomes and resource- countries, only in Australia, Canada, use efficiency. Agricultural productivity Japan, the United States, and West Ger- has fallen in virtually every centrally many are the companies almost com- planned nation over the last 20 years, pletely privately owned.49 while it continues to increase in market- Government control of the produc- oriented nations. Energy consumption tion and prices of oil, coal, and steel has per unit of output is highest in centrally led to excessive consumption of these planned economies. Fuel consumption resources. Some governments, however, per unit of output continues to rise in have usefully intervened to conserve the Soviet Union while it is decreasing in these resources. By adding taxes to the Western Europe, Japan, and the United price of fuels, for example, to account States. Emissions that cause acid rain are for the environmental, security, and in- being reduced in market economies, but tergenerational costs of energy con- continue to grow in centrally planned sumption, they have reduced excessive ones. use. Many nations now apply taxes to oil Greater productive efficiency in mar- 210 (19-I) State of the WorldI987 ket nations has reduced environmental threatstosustainabledevelopment. pressures, while inefficiency in centrally Limitations on fishing can ensure that planned countries has increased them. the supply of fish is not depleted faster Income distributionis comparable in than it can be replenished, for instance. both types of economies, but market Similar measures can be implemented to ones enjoy higher life expectancy and protect other resources. lower infant mortality, indicators that When constraints are needed, they suggest greater overall well-being. Ab- work best when applied on the macro- solute income levels are much higher in economic level. Gasoline, for example, market-oriented economies. would not be rationed on an individual A given level of industrial production basis, but would be taxed to limit total a given level of wealthis thus being consumption. Price mechanisms would created more efficiently under market then allocate the fuel to its most produc- conditions than elsewhere. This fact de- tive uses. Equity problems may follow, rives from at least two advantages that but nations can manage these through markets have over central planning. The income policies, without resort to ra- first is that they are largely self-adminis- tioning or planned allocation of re- tering. The price mechanism brings de- sources. mand more or less automatically into Recent history suggests that econo- equilibrium with supply. mies worldwide might benefit from The second advantage isthat the finding some common new path. This prices are meaningful. That is, under new model would veer away from central competition they reflect real scarcity val- planning toward market reliance for uesvalues based both on the difficulty microeconomic decisions. It would not, Of winning new resources from the earth however, deny the necessity of govern- and on the relative priorities that con- ment intervention at the macroeconomic sumers place On them. Higher prices level to keep economies in balance and alert resource consumers to the cost of to control external costs. It would not ; they transmit critical deny the necessity for societies to act as information between the environment a whole through their political processes and the economy. to improve their lot beyond the capabili- Central planners, if they did their jobs ties of market economics. well, would replicate these functions of In the mid-eighties, many countries the market. But the difficulty of assem- have begun to reorient their economies. bling the mountain of information re- Eighteen of the world's 20 most popu- quired, coupled with the problem of lous nations are initiating measures to competing priorities of resource conser- sell state-owned industry, relax price vation and politicalstability, hinders controls, or increase competition. This their ability to set meaningful prices and reorientation affects two thirds of the to allocate resources efficiently. world's people. Beyond a point, the creation of wealth Hungarian economist Janos Kornai by market economies brings new prob- cautions against overoptimism in eco- lems, characterized by the prodigious nomic affairs. He directed this advice consumption of gasoline in the West. particularly to Americanreaders: This contradiction between efficiency -There are unsolvable dilemmas, be- and high per-capita consumption high- cause each of us has conflicting goals lights the role of sustainable economic and adheres to conflicting ethical postu- policy. A boundarya limit on con- lates." He is aware that "hard budgets" sumption of some resourcescan avert are more efficient, but efficiency means 211 De.igning Sustainable Economies (195) unemployment, and nations like Hun- ciency of central planning and soft bud- gary may not have the resources to redis- gets.Westerncountrieshaveused tribtne income quickly enough to reduce market economics to create wealth effi- the human suffering that comes with ciently. Yet to the extent that they failto economic readjustment." address the problems of underemploy- At the same time, Hungary and other ment,unemployment,andhunger socialist countries do not have there- amidst plenty, they undermine the credi- sources to continue the enormous ineffi- bility of market solutions. 11 Chartinga Sustainable Course Lester R. Brown and Edward CIVol

Until recently, responsibility for chart- alike. Future improvements inliving ing the course of development was left to standards rest more heavily than ever on economists. Appropriate economic poli- international cooperation. And time has cies, ones that ensured high rates of sav- suddenly become one of the scarcest of ings and investment, were expected to all resources. drive the engine of economic growth. -Overall, we are locked in a race,- ob- But as populations expanded and pres- served biologist E.O. Wilson of Harvard sures on natural support systems inten- University at the 1986 National Forum sified,national development policies on Biodiversity in Washington, D.C. The based on economic considerations alone race, as he sees it, pits humanity's ability often failed to guarantee improvements to gather information about the earth's in living standards. A rekindling of prog- rich evolutionary inheritance of plant ress now depends on a careful integra- and animal life against the uncontrolled tion of economic, population, and envi- degradation of tropical environments, ronmental policies. which threatens an episode of extinction Deforestation, soil erosion, acidifica- as large as any in the planet's history. tion, and desertification are undermin- Michael McElroy, Director of Har- ing economic progress in scores of coun- vard's Center for Earth and Planetary tries.Effortstodevisesustainable Physics, is one of the creators of a new development policieswill be further branch of atmospheric science that in- complicated by theglobal warming vestigates the global atmosphere as a induced by greenhouse gases, the deple- single system. McElroy and hiscol- tion of the ozone layer, and the whole- leagues hope that this research will yield salelossof biologicaldiversityas- insights that allow humanity to manage, sociatedwithtropicaldeforestation. rather than submit to, a changing cli- These new threats to progress confront mate. -There is no longer any doubt that industrialanddevelopingcountries we are in a high-stakes race with the pace

213 Charting a Sustainable Course (197) of atmospheric change," wrote Jonathan sity of scientific inquiry has increasedac- Leonard, profiling McElroy's work. The cordingly. Despite this dramaticexpan- steps required to adjust to such change sion,unanticipatedandunwelcome may be drastic; unfortunately, the enor- discoveries in recent years have raised mous gaps in our understanding of at- questions about the adequacy ofcurrent mospheric processes make it difficultto research efforts.3 know exactly what to do. This counter- point Of urgency and uncertainty will dominate human affairs as the twentieth century draws to a close.2 The existing scientific effort falls The environmental and economic shcrt of what is needed toassess problems we face and the coursecorrec- the impacts of human activityon tions they will require are complex. Sim- the global environment. ply determining how basic human activi- ties, such as producing food and burning fossil fuels, are altering the biosphere The spread of forest damage incen- and atmosphere poses unprecedented tral Europe is one phenomenonthat scientific problems. These arenot ques- caught scientists by surprise. Despite in- tions that can be answered withina year tensive research on air pollution, acid or two with a crash research program. rain, and the ecological dynamics of for- Rather, they require a sustainedre- ests,scientists have not yet put the search commitment on a scale that is pieces of the puzzle together ina model massive by any previous yardstick. that can fully account for the unfolding The more serious challenge facespo- pattern of forest decline. More recently, litical institutions that must respondto the discovery of a -hole" in the layer of the emerging scientific consensuson stratospheric ozone over Antarctica each global problems. Changes in theatmo- September and October has confounded sphere, on land, and in the earth's bio- atmospheric scientists. None of the logical endowment will requirecoopera- widely accepted models of theozone tive global responses. National leaders layer predicted it. who fail to comprehend the fundamental These and other after-the-foct discov- alteration in the relationship between eries suggest that the existing scientific the 5 billion of us whonow inhabit the effort falls short of what is neededto earth and the natural systems andre- assess the impacts of human activity On sources on which we depend will find the global environment. Currentre- themselves plagued by intractable prob- search suffers from disciplinary special- lems and locked into economic decline. ization, geographic fragmentation, anda lack of long-term commitment. Recognizing these limitations, the in- ternationalscientific community has proposed a new initiativecalled the in- THE SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGE ternational Geosphere-Biosphere Pro- gram, or simply the Global Change pro- Few human activities havegrown as gramthat isinterdisciplinaryand rapidly in this century as the worldwide global, and that involvesa time commit- scientific effort. The number of scientists ment measured in decades rather than and engineers has expanded three times years. The proposed inquiry is by far the faster than world population and twice most comprehensive, cooperative effort as fast as the global economy; the inten- in the history of international scientific 214 (198) State of theVo1d-1987 collaboration. First outlined in Ottawa, Among the issues where incomplete Canada, at a 1984 meeting of the Inter- understanding is deterring action are national Council of Scientific Unions the atmospheric buildup of carbon diox- (ICSU), the Global Change program re- ide (CO2) and trace gases, and the dy- ceived a ringing endorsement in Bern, namics of the ozone layer. The amount Switzerland, in September 1986 from of CO2 produced by fossil fuel combus- the 71 national scientific academies and tion can be readily estimated, but the 23 professional societies that constitute amounts released by deforestation and ICSU.4 land degradation are poorly known. Es- The Global Change program will timates vary by a factor of two. Coupled focus on the interactions between the with this range of uncertainty is inade- geosphere (the earth's physical systems quate knowledge of the rates at which and resources) and the biosphere. In es- the oceans absorb atmospheric carbon sence, the focal point will be the physi- dioxide.7 cal, chemical, and biological processes Renewed attention to the ozone layer that support life on earth. In the words has also yielded more surprises than sat- of atmospheric scientist Thomas Ma- isfactory explanations. Alarmed by the lone, an organizer of the 1984 meeting, unexpected decline in ozone over Ant- its central thrust will be "to describe and arctica, the U.S. National Science Foun- understand quantitatively the interactive dation organized a research expedition physical, chemical, and biological pro- to the continent in August 1986 to chart cesses that regulate the total earth sys- changes in atmospheric chemistry as the tem, the unique environment it provides Antarctic spring progressed. Three gen- for life, the changes that are occurring in eral hypotheses had been proposed to that system and the manner in which account for the seasonal decline in they are influenced by human actions."5 ozone concentrations. Measurements of Strong support for the new initiative ozone and other chemicals in the Ant- has come fromtheU.S.National arctic atmosphere proved inconsistent Aeronautics and Space Administration with two of them. Team leader Susan (NASA), which in 1982 had proposed its Solomon concluded, -We believe that a own international Global Habitability chemical mechanism is fundamentally research program. NASA officials were responsible for the hole." Scientists will undoubtedly impressed by some of the attempt to untangle the chemistry in- resource degradation they could see volvedincluding the extent to which from spacedeforestation, desertifica- chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a role.8 tion, soil erosion, and other environ- In October 1986, a NASA investigator mental disruptions brought about by reported a smaller "hole- in the ozone human activities. For example, NASA sa- over the Arctic that seemed analogous to tellites photographed the progress of the puzzling Antarctic phenomenon. giant dust plumes from the Sahara This hole, like the one observed in the across the North Atlantic, and moni- southern hemisphere, appears to be tored the formation of a new island in linked to very cold atmospheric temper- the Bay of Bengal as silt was carried to atures. Whether the two seasonally tran- the ocean from the Himalayas and the sient -holes- are related to a global de- Gangetic Plain in India. NASA's Earth pletion of the ozone layerand whether Systems Science Committee will join the similar processes generate them at the National Science Foundation and the twopolesarescientificquestions National Academy of Sciences in spon- whose answers could literally alter the soring the Global Change study.8 course of life on earth.8

215 Charting a S liable Course (199) Both soil chemistry and soil fertility, taxonomic accounting hasnever been seemingly more mundaneconcerns, done; E.O. Wilson laments "we donoi contain equally large uncertainties. The know the true number of specieson link between changes in soil chemistry Earth even to the nearest order ofmag- and the forest die-off in Europe hasgen- nitude." As a result, estimates of therate erated a wide-ranging, so far unresolved and implications Of species extinctions debate in the scientific community. And are rough extrapolations based oneco- while monitoring soil erosionon agricul- logical theory and limited field studies tural land would seem to bean obvious hardly a basis for the redesign of devel- and urgent priority, only the United opment policies that may be needed to States has undertaken a comprehensive conserve biological diversity." national soil erosion survey.10 Dispelling this ignorance of planetary processes will be time-consuming and intellectuallydemanding butnot The largest international scientific prohibitively costly. The Global Change collaboration in the world today is program is expected to cost about $ I not the Global Change study but billion over a decade. Compilinga thor- the U.S. Strategic Defense Initia- ough inventory of living specieswhich tive. though not part of the Global Change agenda is equally critical toa sound un- derstanding of human impactson the biospheremight require 25,000pro- Land usepatternshave changed fessional lifetimes devoted to collecting, dramatically over the last generation, analyzing, and describing unique plants but little effort has been madeto deter- and animals. At.current levels of funding mine how these alterations have affected and scientific effort, fewer than 1percent the hydrologicalcycle.Ithas been of the world's species are being investi- demonstrated experimentally, and in- gated. Scientific enthusiasm for both deed it is obvious even to untrained ob- these initiatives is building. New tech- servers, that removing vegetation from nologies including satelli,es, powerful the land increases rainfall runoff. This in computers, and analytic techniques that turn reduces the percolation that re- monitor chemicals at concentrations of charges aquifers and the evaporation parts per trillion put such ambitiousre- that contributes moisture to the air and search objectives within grasp.12 may promote cloud formation. Yet there New constraints on funding for scien- 's little documentation of howvegeta- tific research could domore than tech- tion losses have affected water supplies nologicallimitationsto compromise and rainfall patterns. As a result, scien- progress on the Global Change pro- tistscannot predict thefullconse- gram. The largest international scientific quences of deforestation and land deg- collaboration in the world today is radation. not the Global Change study, from whichall The uncertainties surrounding physi- nations could benefit, but the U.S. Stra- zal resources and processes are matched tegic Defense Initiative, or Star Wars by uncertainties about the distribution program. Since it was begun in 1983, $9 and abundance of living organisms. Esti- billion has been committedto this re- mates of the total number of plant and search. Reagan administration plans call animal species range from 5 millionto for spending $33 billionon Star Wars 30 million, but only about 1.6 million between 1986 and 1991. Israel, Japan, organisms have been described. A full the United Kingdom, and West Ger- 216 (200 State of th orldI987 many have signed agreements to partici- lack the information needed to arrest the pate in the research, and France and deterioration of the earth's habitabil- Italy are expected to conclude formal 4.16 agreements that will guarantee them a Yet action to avert the consequences share of Pentagon contracts for exotic of global change need not await the out- defense technologies.13 come of long-term scientific research. Although the Star Wars program will Ample reason already exists to move not necessarily rule out research on the ahead on at least three broad fronts. An global environment, the enormous dis- international commitment to complete tortion of U.S. federal research funding the demographic transition, restrain car- will certainly make it more difficult to bon emissions, and launch a second en- carry out components of the Global ergy revolution could provide a yard- Change program or to fund neglected stickby which worldwideprogress disciplines like biology. According to toward sustainability might be mea- Gerard Piel, past President of the Ameri- sured. can Association for the Advancement of Science, "if the [Star Wars] program goes forward there will be enough funds to hire half of all the country's physi- cists." Star Wars is gathering momen- COMPLETING THE tum despite a broad consensus among U.S. scientists that its aims are not feasi- DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ble.14 A turning point could be reached in the late eighties, the straightforward when institutions more concerned with economic division of the world_ into the worldwide economic advance than with North and the South is yielding to a narrow definitions of national security more_ significant demographic division recognize the contribution that the Glo- based on differential population growth bal Change study could make to their rates. As noted _in Chapter 2, in one set work. The World Bank, for example, of countries, which contain nearly half plans to use satellite remote sensing to the world's people, populations are create a global data base on environ- growing slowly or not at all and incomes mental trends in the Third World. The are rising. In the second group, popula- pace at which climate change unfolds as tions _are growing rapidly and incomes a result of greenhouse gas warming has are falling, or risk doing so if rapid popu- obvious implications for Bank-financed lation growth continues. investments in drinking water supply, ir- Dozens of countries in the latter rigation, and rural development. The group, all in the Third World, have modest cost of a Global Change pro- crossed key environmental thresholds gram could be considered a down pay- and are now experiencing income de- ment toward more sustainable develop- clines. They need to slow population ment in the twenty-first century.15 growth quickly lest they fall into the The International Geophysical Year of demographic _trap. This will be particu- 1957-58 and the International Biologi- larly difficult because the economic and cal Program, both sponsored by ICSU, social improvements that _normally help offer precedents for the worldwide col- reduce family size are no longer operat- laborative effort needed if the Global ing. The urgent need to slow population Change study is to succeed. Without this growth under such trying circumstances new "mission to Planet Earth,- we may presents a situation for which the experi- 217 Charting a Sustainable Course (201) ences of other countries offer little guid- In this new situation, some policymak- ance. ers are beginning to consider new ap- China narrowly avoided this demo- proachestoloweringbirthrates. graphic trap. Government projections in Nigerian economist Adebayo Medeji, the late seventies showed thateven if Executive Secretary of the U.N. Eco- Chinese families averaged just two chil- nomic Commission for Africa,urges re- dren, the country's population would search on "the use of the taxsystem as still grow by several hundred million and a means for controlling population would overwhelm support systems and growth and discouraging rural/urban resources, undermining the economy migration." Such a recommen -lation, and reducing living standards. China's suggesting an unprecedented atvroach leaders saw the decline coming and took to Africa's population problems, indi- preemptive action to head it off. They cates the urgency that some African de- adopted the only alternativeanun- cision makers are at last beginningto precedented program to encourageone- attachto escaping the demographic child families.17 trap.' 8 The key to the Chinese successwas a national effort to foster public under- standing of the consequences of the Many nations facea demographic demographic path China wason. Using emergency. the long-term projections,theycal- culated future per capita supplies of cropland, water, energy, and jobs. These numbers formed the basis ofa broad In Afr ca, the Indian subcontinent, public education effort on population Latin America, the Middle East, and policy. Southeast Asia, progress toward the final One consequence of this effortwas a stage of the demographic transition is shift in the focus of childbearing deci- uneven. Stopping population growth in sions. Couples whose concerns would these five high growth regions doesnot traditionally have centered on howmany depend on new technologies. Existing children they would need to support contraceptives and family planningser- them in their old age began to consider vices have already sharply reduced fertil- how the size of their family would affect ity in almost half the world. The missing the world in which their children would ingredient is leadership. live. This subtle shift fromnarrow self- A dozen countries-10 in Western interest to a concern for the well-being Europe and 2 in Eastern Europehave of future generations may hold the key completed the demographic transition. to completing the demographic transi- (See Table I II.) These nations contain tion. some 247 million people, or 5 percent of Attempting to slow population growth world population. A secondgroup, 8 quickly when living standardsare deteri- countries with an annual growth of 0.5 orating is one of the most difficult, politi- percent per year or less, has nearly rees- cally complex undertakingsany govern- tablished equilibrium between births ment can face. Many nations face a anddeaths.Unlessfertilitylevels demographic emergency.Failureto change, they too should reach stability check population growth will leadto within a matter of years. Eightpercent of continued environmental deterioration, world population will soon live incoun- economic decline, and, eventually, social tries with stationary populations. disintegration. Not too far behind are severalcoun- 202) State of the World-1987 Table 11-1. Countries That Have Completed the Demographic Transition, 1986 Crude Crude Annual Rate Birth Death or Increase Country Rate Rate or Decrease' Population (per 1,000 population) (percent) (million) Austria 11 12 7.6 Belgium 12 11 +0.1 9.9 Denmark 11 0.0 5.1 East Germany 14 14 0.0 16.7 Greece 12 10 +0.2 10.0 Hungary 12 13 0.1 10.6

Italy 10 10 0.0 57,2 Luxembourg 11 0.0 0,4 Norway 11 +0.2 4.2 Sweden 12 11 +0.1 8.4 United Kingdom 13 13 0.0 56,6 West Germany 10 11 0,1 60.7

Total 247.4 'Excludes immigration. SOURCE: WOridwatch Institute estimates based on data in the United Nations, Monfhly !Mifflin of Skthslics, New York, monthly. tries whose populations are expanding Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, between 0.5 and I percent per year. This have made little progress to date.20 group includes some of the world's most More worrisome are the billion people populous nations, such as China, Japan, in the Indian subcontinent, three fourths the Soviet Union, and the United States. of them in India. Although it was the first Japan, growing at 0.6 percent per year, country to enact an official family plan- and the United States, at 0.7 percent, are ning program, India's commitment has now well below replacement-level fertil- wavered. An overzealous effort to slow ity, indicating that reaching zero popula- population growth in the mid-seventies tion growth is only a matter of time.I9 led to reports of coercive sterilizations. Of the five geographic regions where The public resistance that followed dealt population growth is between 2 and 3 a severe setback to the overall family percent per year, Southeast Asia may planning program. have the best chance of lowering its fer- India is beginning to reinvigorate its tility and moving into the final stage of family planning program. The Seventh the demographic transition. Within the Five-Year Plan endorses a two-child fam- region, wide variations in population ily norm and aims to achieve replace- growth rates exist. Indonesia and Thai- ment-level fertility by the year 2000. land have been rather successfulin Specific goals of the plan include 31 mil- going from a high to a moderate rate. lion sterilizations, 21 million insertions Other societies, however, like Burma, of intrauterine devices, and 62 million

219 Charting a St inable Course (203) conventionalcontraceptiveusersby ning clinics dispersed throughout the 1990. Recollections of the political and country.23 social costs of coercion shouldprevent Some Latin American countriesare the excesses of a decade ago as policies trying innovative approaches to boost to accomplish these goals are enacted.2i family planning practices in their soci- Whether India can slow its popui_ation eties. Brazil, the most populouscountry growth before deforestation, soilero- in Latin America, is launchinga program sion, and desertification undermine its to give all women information on birth economy remains to be seen. Severe re- control methods and a free supply of gional shortages of water and foodare pills. Spending will total $254 million likely in the not-too-distant future if per year, or roughly 10 percent of the population growth is not arrested. If social security ministry's budget. Mexico India's annual population growthper- launched an unusual media campaign sists at 2.3 percent, meager gains inper using soap operas, athletes, and popular capita food production could turn intoa music to publicize the importance of decline in food availability,as it has in family planning.24 Africa. in just over half the world, time isrun- Withthemostrapidpopulation ning out in the effort to slow population growth of any continent inhistory. growth by reducing birth rates. Unfortu- Africa's economic and nutritional diffi- nately, not all national leaders recognize culties remain acute. Only 3-4percent the basic relationship between popula- of the couples in most African countries tion growth, ecological supportsystems, use contraception. This figure will have and economic trends. Even those who to rise severalfold in order to reduce understand the links do not consistently birth rates substantially. The World support effective family planning pro- Bank,reviewingtheconstraints on grams. Perhaps the most tragic failure in Africa's prospects inlate1986, an- this area is the United States. Tradition- nounced that lending for population ally a leader in the international family control had become -its highest priority planning movement, the U.S.govern- in Africa." The Bank plans to double its ment announced in August 1986 that it spending on African family planning was withdrawing all financial support programs by 1990.22 from the U.N. Fund for Population Ac- Despite African political leaders'new tivities (UNFPA), the U.N.agency re- awareness of population problems, fam- sponsible for coordinating family plan- ily planning success stories in Africaare ning programs in 134 countries.25 few. The most progresshas been The ostensible reason for the Reagan achieved in Zimbabwe, where one third administration's decision wasreports of of the women now use contraception. forced abortions in China, a recipient of Strong support from Prime Minister UNFPA support. China denied the alle- Robert Mugabe and a well-organized gations, but the United States disputed program headed by Dr. Esther Boohene that denial. The more salient issue,one have been the keys to success. Zimbabwe ignoredbyU.S.policymakers,was has chosen to keep the family planning whether other countries in need of fam- program largely separate from the Min- ily planning assistance should b? penal- istry of Health so it can be carefully ized because of the Chineseprogram. managed and monitored. Dr. Boohene Playing politics with family planningas- credits this decision with part of thesuc- sistance counters progress towardcom- cess achieved in some 300 family plan- pleting th t. demographic transition. For

220 (204) Stale of theWorld-1987 some countries, it increases the likeli- the effects of rising CO, on climate and hood that population growth will slow the economy is even more recent. because of rising death rates rather than An enormous effort is required to re- falling birth rates.26 duce CO, emissions, butitcan be done, and it is likely to be far cheaper than adjusting to Carinduced climate change. Energy price increases have al- ready arrested the growth in one compo- BALANCING THE CARBON nent of the CO2 buildup. Between 1950 and 1979, total carbon emissions from EQUATION fossil fuel combustion more than tripled, from 1.6 billion to 5.1 billion tons. (See Carbon dioxide constitutes just 0.03 Table 11-2.) Since 1979, however, these percent of the earth's atmosphere by emissions have remained fairly stable, volume, ranking fourth, behind nitrogen with a total in 1986 less than 2 percent (78.1 percent), oxygen (21.0 percent), above the 1979 level. This will continue and the inert gas argon (0.9 percent). to boost atmospheric carbon dioxide Yet in this relative scarcity lies carbon levels, but not nearly as fast as if the dioxide's special importance to living 1950-79 trend had continued. things, its vulnerability to human activ- Fossil fuel consumption has temporar- ity, and the possibility that the human ily leveled off at a time when enormous impacts on CO, levels can be managed. potential remains for increasing energy Restoring equilibrium to the global car- efficiency in the world economy. No bon cycle is both imperative and achiev- country has yet come close to realizing able.27 the full gains in this sector that modern Industrial and developing countries technology makes possible, and only a alike share responsibility for human- handful of countries have extensively induced disturbance of the carbon cycle. substituted renewable energy sources The burning of fossil fuels, mainly by for fossil fuels. industrial countries, releases about 5 bil- Reversing the net contribution of CO, lion tons of carbon to the atmosphere from deforestation is the other crucial each year. The clearing and burning of component of efforts to restore balance forests, principally in tropical develop- to the carbon cycle. Progress may be ing countries, contributes between 0.6 made indirectly as policymakers recog- billion and 2.6 billion more tons of car- nize that continued deforestation will bon to the air. As a result, the total confront tropical countries with unac- amount of carbon stored in the atmo- ceptable economic costs. Once forest sphere, about 700 billion tons, is slowly cover is removed, many tropical soils de- increasing.28 (See Chapter 9.) teriorate rapidly. Productive agriculture Although the carbon cycle is a vigor- cannot be sustained on such land. ous one, with billions of tons of carbon The World Bank, which has financed fixed annually by plants through photo- colonization of Brazil's western Amazon, synthesis and released by respiration temporarily withdrew support for part of and the decay of plants and animals, the Polonoroeste Project in Rondonia levels of carbon dioxide have been rela- State in 1985 because of environmental tively stable through most of human his- and social problems. A phase of the pro- tory. Regular measurements of atmo- ject that originally envisioned resettling spheric carbon dioxide levels did not 15,000 families was scaled back to 5,000 begin until 1958. Public concern about families due to low soil fertility.29 An al-

2 21 Charting a Sustainable Course (205 ) Table 11-2. Carbon-Emissions Intensity of World EconomicOutput, 1950-86 Total Carbon Gross Carbon Emissions From World Per $1,000 Year Fossil Fuels Product1 Of GNP (million metric tons) (trillion dollars) (kilograms) 1950 1,583 2.94 538

1955 1,975 3.78

1960 2,495 4,68 533

1965 3,037 5.99 507

1970 3,934 7.67 513

1975 4,453 9.42 473

1980 5,058 11.27 449 1981 4,931 11.43 431 1982 4,875 11.59 421 1983 5,013 11.80 425 1984 5,105 12.33 414

1985 5,180 408 19862 5,225 11632.108 399 -0 dollars.2Prelimmary figures. SOURCES: Worldwatch Institute estimates based on data from United Nations. U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of State, and British Petroleum of North America.

ternative to settlement of rain forest A similar situationisunfolding in areas is to enact real land reform that China, though on a much larger scale. will distribute existing farmland more The share of the country's territory cov- equitably, and to organize family plan- ered by trees has increased from just 8 ning programstoslow population percent in 1960 to 12.7 percent today. growth. The goal is to have 20 percent of the Planting trees also restrains pressures country forested again by the end of the on the tropical forests that remain, and century, assuring wood supplies and re- helps slow the CO2 buildup by incor- storingstabilitytodegradedlands. porating more carbon into growing Reaching this target will store millions of trees. South Korea, beginning in the tons of carbon in trees. Unfortunately, early seventies, launched a Chinese energy plans also call for a effort to replant barren hillsides that heavy increase in coal burning during could supply the wood needed in rural this same period.31 villages. In less than a decade, Korean Reforestation in industrial countries villagers planted an area in fast-growing can also contribute needed carbon stor- pines that approximates two thirds of the age. Tree planting in England and Scot- area in rice, the national food staple.50 land is restoring cover to land that has

222 (206) State rld-1987 been bare of forests for centuries. Italy technologies and policies that helped encourages reforestation on abandoned nations use energy more efficiently than hillside farmland.32 ever before. The energy used per unit of In the United States, Congress in world economic output has declined by effect endorsed a major carbon storage over 12 percent since 1973. And this fall program with passage of the Food Secu- appears likely to continue for the fore- rity Act of 1985. The aim is to plant grass seeable future, though it may slow tem- and trees on 45 million acres (18 million porarily due to the weakening of oil hectares) of highly erodible cropland, prices.33 designated as a conservation reserve. Though the first post-OPEC energy Farmers are paid to enroll erosion- revolution is far from having run its prone land in the reserve. Although course, a second revolutionis now unusually high crop subsidies in 1986 neededone that responds to longer- slowed the sign-up, more normal market term environmental and economic con- conditions will make the reserve an at- cerns. Designing an energy strategy that tractive economic option. Most of the will maintain the earth's habitability will land is likely to be seeded to grass, but be far more demanding than allowing an estimated 5 million acres will be price signals alone to set the course. The planted to trees. Both grass and trees challenge facing policymakers and en- will store more carbon than cropland ergy planners is to reduce emissions of that is plowed each year.33 CO2, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides Balancing the carbon equation is not by further increasing energy efficiency the only step needed to slow global and accelerating the shift to renewable warming. Methane, nitrous oxide, syn- sources of energy. The first energy revolution succeeded thetic chlorofluorou,rbons, and other in stabilizing CO2 emissions from fossil trace gasessome of which are increas- fuels. The aim of the second revolution ing in concentration more rapidly than is to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide carbon dioxidecollectively may con- to slow the warming trend now under tributeas much tothe greenhouse way. Enormous opportutlitic:, exist to warming as CO2 does. But because virtu- boost the energy efficienLy ofe world ally every country either burns fossil economy, ranging from inc!.-.zsing the fuels or is losing forests, a commitment fuel efficiency of automobiles to design- to restore equilibrium to the carbon ing and distributing more-efficient wood cycle is one all countries could em- cookstoves in Third World cities. brace.34 The existing world automobile fleet travels an average of 18 miles per gallon of fuel, a poor reflection of the technical possibilities. (See Table 11-3.) The most efficient cars today include the gasoline- A SECOND ENERGY powered Honda Civic, which gets 47 REVOLUTION miles to the gallon, and the Volkswagen diesel, which travels 45 miles per gallon. Over the 14 years since the Organization Test vehicles under study in the United ofPetroleumExportingCountries States and Europe go far beyond this, (OPEC) first engineered an oil price in- achieving 60-100 milespergallon. crease, world energy demand has in- When vehicles like thew become com- creased only modestly. Efforts to amelio- mercially available, zioubling the fuel rate the effects of higher prices through efficiency of the world fleet will simply energy conservation led to innovative be a matter of time. With an average fuel

223 Charting a Sustainable Course (.207) Table 114. Fuel Efficiency of Selected Four-Passnger Automobiles Fuel Curb Car Status Economy Weight (miles/gallon) (kilogram) 1981 VW Rabbit gasoline) commercial 30 945

1981 VW Rabbit (diesel) commercial 45 945

Honda City Car (gasoline) commercial 47 655

VW Experimental Car 2000 prototype 62 786

Volvo LCP 2000 prototype 65 707

Cummins/NASA Lewis Car design 79 1,360

Volvo LCP (potential) design 85

Pertran Car (diesel version) design 100-105 545 SOURCE: Robert H. Williams, -Potential Rol s for Bioenergy in an Energy-Meier' orld,' thio, Vol. 14, No. 4-5, 1985. efficiency of 36 miles per gallon, a world 1986, when environmentalists and U.S. fleet 50 percent larger than today's appliance manufacturers agreed in prin- could run on 25 percent less fuel. ciple on standards for all refrigerators, Appropriate policies can yield effi- freezers, water heaters, air conditioners, ciency gains of this magnitude in rela- dishwashers,furnaces,andkitchen tively short order. In the United States, ranges marketed in the United States. standards adopted for automobiles in Congress passed the National Appliance 1976 nearly doubled the fuel efficiency Energy Conservation Act in October of new cars in little more than a decade, 1986, which requires major appliances from 14 miles per gallon in 1974 to 26 in to be 15-25 percent more energy- 1986. A government decision to double efficient by 1990 than they were in efficiency again by the turn of the cen- 1985.37 tury could slow the increase in CO2 Unfortunately, President Reagan emissions and acid rain in the late twen- -pocket vetoed- this bill while Congress tieth and early twenty-first centuries. was out of session in early November, so Unfortunately, two of the major U.S. au- the measure will have to be reintroduced tomobile manufacturers, General Mo- in 1987. This legislation could reduce tors and Ford, convinced the govern- consumer energy bills by an estimated ment toreduce thefuelefficiency $28 billion by the end of the century. standard from 27.5 to 26 miles per gal- The need to build 22,000 megawatts of lon for cars sold after 1985.36 new electrical generating capacity would By contrast, significant progress to7 be _avoided, restraining CO2 emissions ward increasing the energy efficiency of commensurately.36 electrical household appliance', has been Patterns of energy use are dramati- achieved,drivenlargelyby market cally different in the Third World, but forces. Added impetus came in August the same principles of policy and tech- 224 (208) State of theWorld--I987 nology can be applied to increase energy The large-scale development of any efficiency. In West Africa, Burkina Faso energy source has always involved such has launched a nationwide effort to en- environmental trade-offs. The need to courage more efficient cookstoves in balancelocalenvironmentalcosts both rural and urban areas. The U.N. against transboundary and global conse- Sudano-Sahelian Office and the Swedish quences has become especially acute. government have cooperated to develop The British are considering constructing four types of improved stoves that use a barrage across the Severn Estuary that 40-60 percent less fuelwood than tradi- would capture the energy in estuarine tionalthree-stone hearths. The new tidal flows, producing some 7,200 mega- stoves, which cost between $2 and $4 watts of power at a price competitive apiece, also take advantage of standardi- with coal-fired or nuclear electricity.42 zation they are designed to accommo- Other European countries, which bear date Burkina Faso's four standard cook- the brunt of England's sulfur dioxide ing pots, saving on materials and making emissions, would undoubtedly welcome mass production cheaper.39 the Severn project. But the biological Renewable energy sources are des- effects of the possible disruption of es- tined to play, a much larger role during tuarine processes are poorly under- the second energy revolution. Hydro- stood. Because tidal flows would be re- power is the source that can most quickly strained,pollutantsfromadjacent make a large contribution to energy sup- communities might accumulate more plies. Canada, with 100,000 megawatts rapidly in the estuary. A consortium of of undeveloped hydropower potential, ic private power companies, the Central looking south, toward the U.S. market. Electricity Generating Board, and the Increased U.S. reliance on Canadian hy- British government is now doing feasi- dropower could help some regions shift bility studies of this project.'" from dependence on oil- and coal-fired As discussed in Chapter 9, several power, which produces CO2 and the acid European countries have begun to map precipitation that has recently soured out energy strategies that reflect a de- U.S.-Canadian relations. Canadian utili- cided step away from fossil fuels. Before ties already market electricity in New En- Chernobyl, West Germany's planned gland, New York State, the upper Mid- shift to non-fossil-fuel generating capac- west, and the West Coast.4° ity included a significantly expanded re- China expectstodevelop13,000 liance on nuclear poweralthough sup- megawatts of generating capacity at the portforthisapproachdiminished Three Gorges site on the Chang Jiang following the accident. Sweden is em- (Yangtze) River, in the world's largest barking on a more ambitious and pro- hydropower project. At least 300,000 gressive path that includes a planned Chinese would be resettled from the res- phaseout of nuclear power as well as a ervoir site and 13,000 hectares of crop- reduction in oil use. Energy savings in land would be inundated. Chinese plan- new buildings and homes will help cut ners are weighing the costs of these total energy demand, and wind, water, environmental and social disruptions and cogeneration will provide incremen- againstthose of generating13,000 tal energy supplies." megawatts with coal, the country's prin- The benefits of the second energy rev- cipal alternative. China's stakes in avert- olution are impossible to measure pre- ing a global warming are high, because cisely. Progress must be evaluated not the country's most densely settled prov- only in strict economic terms, but in inces are coastal and thus at risk from a averted climate change, reduced acidi- rise in sea level." fication, and the avoided damages and

2 2 Charting a Suslainabk Course (209) costs of adjusting to these changes. One U.S. National Research Council has such estimate has been made by H.C. pointed out -the frequently large mis- Cheng and,his colleagues at Brookhaven match between the scales or jurisdic- National Laboratory, who analyzed how tional boundaries of managementau- adoption of energy-efficient technolo- thority and the scales of ecological gies could affect global CO2 emissions phenomena involved."46 by the year 2050. They assumed roughly the same reliance on fossil fuelsas at present, and found that an aggressive For some of the major adjustments commitment to energy efficiency could hold power plant emissions of CO2 to 7 facing humanity, a relatively small billion tons worldwide. By contrast, if number of countries hold the key efficiency remained at levels reached in to success. the mid-seventies, annual CO2 emis- sions would rise to 17 billion tons.43 The issues are global, but in the ab- sence of global authorities only national governments can implement policies. For example, goals for restraining CO2 CENTERS OF DECISION emissions can be set at the international level, but programs to reach those goals As withthe new scienceresearch will be carried out by national authori- agenda, policies to complete the demo- ties. For some of the major adjustments graphic transition, balance the carbon facing humanity, a relatively smallnum- cycle, and launch the second energy rev- ber of countries hold the key tosuccess. olution will have to be global,coopera- Identifying those centers of decision and tive, and interdisciplinary. Theconse- building momentum in key countriescan quences of domestic policies no longer help the world avoid the potentially dis- stop at national borders. Irresponsible astrous global changes now in prospect. energy policies in one country can lead The first imperative, and one toward to undesired acidification of the environ- which the world is making hesitantprog- ment in dozens of others. Failed popula- ress, is the balancing of birth rates and tion policies contribute to uncontrolled death rates needed to complete the migration of people in search of jobs. demographic transition. Responsibility Slow progress on energy efficiencycan for stopping population growth lies both force countries to invest in generating in the remaining high-growth regions capacity that will accelerate global cli- that have the highest stake in averting mate change. the consequences of continued rapid The question facing the world's lead- population growth, and in the low- ers is how responsibility for the new growth regions that can provide the global problems will be shared in the in- financial and technical assistance forsuc- ternational community. Continuedpop- cessful family planning programs. ulation growth, the accumulation of World population increased by 83 mil- greenhouse gases, and the clearing of lion in 1986. Two countries, India and tropical forests are a class of problems China, adding 18 and 11 million,respec- whose consequences are cumulative, tively, accounted for 35 percent of this whose causes are interactive, and whose increment. If world population is to be effects transcend national boundaries. slowed, each of these population giants The world has few effective models for will have to play a major role. China is managing such complex problems. The already doing so. With its one-childpro- 226 (21.0) Stale o the World-1987 gram, it has reduced its annual addition Egypt account for one quarter of the from a peak of 22 million in 197 L If continent's 26 million annual births. China stays on course, its population will And in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico stop growing by the end of the century are responsible for more than half the or shortly thereafter.47 births. If the regions of the Third World Overall food production gains in India with rapid population growth are to es- since the Green Revolution began two cape the demographic trap, rapid fertil- decades ago have eliminated imports, ity declines in these key countries are but they have raise° per capita food con- essentia1.89 sumption only marginally. In addition, Developing countries that have suc- these national trends mask vast regional cessfullyinitiatedfertility declines disparities that embrace what Indian such as China, Thailand, and Zimbabwe economist Ashok Rudra has called -is- can assist other Third World countries lands of modern agriculture" in a sea of to develop family planning programs. traditional technology. These regional Such South-South cooperation, though imbalances, and the political stresses it holds great promise, has not yet been they generate, could undermine India's exploited. And the industrial countries future.48 that are approaching zero population growth can play an instrumental role in helping the world complete the demo- The United States and the Soviet graphic transition. These nations carry Union generate 23 and 18 percent most of the burden for research and de- velopment of new contraceptives, and of global CO2 emissions, respec- provide much of the financial assistance tively. that supports Third World family plan- ning programs. Family planning needs are quite dif- India cannot remain in the middle ferent in high-growth/low-income soci- stage of the demographic transition eties than in those that have achieved much longer. It needs to project the in- population stability. Long-acting, inex- terplay of the country's demographic, pensive contraceptives are needed by environmental, and economic trends to Third World women whose contact with the year 2010. The Indian National clinics and physicians is sporadic at best. Trust for Art and Cultural Heritage, a Some promising methods on the hori- nongovernmental organization chaired zon include a birth control vaccine, now by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, has al- being tested in Australia, that prevents ready published some insightful reports pregnancy for up to two years, and a pill on India's environment and natural re- that can be used to induce menstruation sources and might provide a forum for after intercourse. Methods like these thoughtful analysis of the country's fu- could help prevent pregnancy and space ture by many Indian institutions. Such births better than existing contracep- an exercise could establish the analytical tives, improving the health of mothers underpinning needed for new policy and children.5i initiatives and the information needed to But several forces in industrial coun- raise public awareness of the threat tries make progress toward these and posed by continuing population growth other effective contraceptives slower and related problems.49 than it need be. Private companies have Certain countries play a dispropor- little incentive to develop such long- tionate role in shaping regional pros- acting, low-cost contraceptives. The sky- pects as well. In Africa, Nigeria and rocketing cost of liability insurance in 227 Charting aSus ainable Course (21 the United States is forcing some phar- Table 11-4. Carbon Emissions from maceutical companies to abandon their Fossil Fuel Burning, 1983 efforts to develop new birth control methods altogether. And public ambiva- Country Emissions Share lence toward contraception and abor- (million tion in the United States is eroding sup- metric tons) (percent) portforthegovernment-sponsored research that could counterbalance pri- United States 1,138 23 vate-sector biases. Worldwide, research Soviet Union 911 18 spending on reproductive health, new China 440 9 contraceptives, and birth control safety japan 224 4 declined by over one third in real terms West Germany 179 4 between the early seventies and the early United Kingdom 141 3 eighties.52 1 oland 113 2 Coupled with the uncertainty sur- France 103 2 rounding US. official family planning Italy 91 2 assistance, this decline in contraceptive East Germany 82 2 research and development is cause for All Other 1,591 32 concern. Family planning choices are still largely limited to methods that have World 5,013 100' been available for at lent 25 years 'Does not add to 100 due to rounding. while the world population continues to sounces: Worldwatch Institute estimates based on grow and the share of the population data from United Nations and from World Re- sources Institute/International Institute far Envi- entering its childbearing years reaches ronment and Development, World Resources 1986 unprecedented size. Governments that (New York: Basic Books, 1986). could be doing the most to produce safer and more effective contraceptives sions indicates because they also possess matched to the needs of high-growth re- nearly two thirds of the world's remain- gions have been slow to accept responsi- ing coalby far the most abundant fossil bility for helping to complete the demo- fuel. Their decisions about exploiting graphic transition. these coal resources will bear heavilyon The centers of decision for balancing future world climate.55 the global carbon cycle are fewer. Al- To halt tropical deforestation, which though all countries contribute some contributes carbort to the atmosphere CO2 emissions by burning fossil fuels, a and also diminishs biological diversity, few countries account for the lion's dozens of tropical countries have a role share. (See Table 11-4.) The United to play. But within this group, forest States and the Soviet Union generate 23 management inthree key countries and 18 percent of global CO2 emissions, could play a disproportionate role incar- respectively. With the addition of China, bon storage. Brazil, Indonesia, and Zaire three countries a-count for nearly half of encompass 577 million hectares of re- the global total. Although an effective maining rain forests-48 percent of the response by these three giants would not closed forests in the tropics in 1980. Un- ensure sufficient control over the CO2 fortunately, Brazil and Indonesiaare buildup, it could enhance greatly the both pursuing nationalresettlement global chance of success. And other programs that will reduce the remaining countries would likely follow their lead. rain forest are:., and Zaire has shown lit- The role of the United States, the So- tle leadership in the management of the viet Union, and China is even greater largest expanse of tropical foreston the than their current share of carbon emis- African continent.54 228 (212) State of theorld-1987 The problems of acidification and have failed economic and environmental CFC emissions relate to processes that tests in their own societies. Aggressive are currently concentrated in industrial promotion of nuclear power, the clearest countries. But efforts to reduce acidifi- and most costly example, has slowed in cation need to be focused on all coun- the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident. tries heavily dependent on grades of coal No widely shared vision exists of the with high sulfur content and in those need for worldwide progress to stabilize with large automobile fleets. For the population, control carbon emissions, most part, controlling acidification lies and revolutionize energy-using tech- in the hands of the northern tier of in- nologies. No agenda or five-point plan dustrialcountries. China and India, has been drafted that c affronts or even however, are now burning enough coal acknowledges the most serious chal- to create serious acidification problems. lenges facing the world in the decades The number of industrial countries ahead. It is characteristic of what histo- manufacturing chlorofluorocarbonsis rian Barbara Tuchman has called the also relatively small. As the consensus -Age of Disruption" that leaders find on depletion of the ozone layer takes their time and imagination eroded by shape, curbing the production of these immediate crises; few devote their tal- industrial gases should not be unman- ents to the statecraft and -planetcraft- ageable. A promising step was taken in that global problems demand.56 September 1986 by a consortium of U.S. Responsible decision making in an age firms. An industry group called the Alli- of global effects requires more informa- ance for Responsible CFC Policy an- tion on the consequences of our actions nounced that its 500 members were pre- than ever. The international scientific pared to support international limits on community hastakenthelead by CFC production." proposing the Global Change study. But Althoughtheannouncementen- simply studying global dynamics and dorsed limits on only the rate of growth global disruptions is not enough. Social, in production, rather than setting an ab- economic, and political initiatives com- solute ceiling, it marked a departure for mensurate withglobal changesare a trade group that in the past opposed needed. The values that guide the man- global controls and disputed the scien- agement of technology in modern soci- tific evidence suggesting danger to the eties have not been clearly articulated, ozone layer. The announcement offers a and the need for cooperation is not yet promising precedent for the balancing widely recognized in a world where di- of public and private interests on which plomacy remains tied to anachronistic sucessfuleffortstorestrainglobal definitions of national sovereignty. changes will rest. Technological and demographic If the second energy revolution suc- changes are leading us into the twenty- ceeds, it will be because research and first century with political institutions in- development efforts emphasize energy herited from the nineteenth. The need technologies suited to the needs of to comprehend our responsibility in Third World countries that face rapid me to exercise it successfully presses growth in the demand for energy. Indus- upon us. That we know so little about trial countries have traditionally been the consequences of our activitiesis the developers of innovative technolo- humbling. That we have brought so gies;unfortunately, industrial-country much responsibility upon ourselves is interests have tended to promote Third sobering. World adoption of technologies that The threats that emerge as we cross

223 Charting a Sustainable Course (213 ) natural thresholds are no longer hypo- always been concerned about the future, thetical. Already environmental deterio- but we are the first to be faced with deci- ration and mounting external debtare sions that will determine whether the combining to reduce living standards in earth our children inherit will be habit- scores of Third World countries. In- able. comes in Africa have fallen by nearly one The course corrections neededto re- fifth since 1970, and in Latin America by store a worldwide improvement in the several percent since 1981. Reversing human condition have no precedent. these trends will not be easy. And they may not be possible if the mili- A sustainable future calls uponus tarizationthatis hampering interna- simultaneously to arrest the carbon di- tional cooperation and preempting lead- oxide buildup, protect the ozone layer, ershiptime,fiscalresources,and restore forests and soils, stop population scientific personnel continues. Anyone growth, boost energy efficiency, and de- contemplating the scale of the needed velop renewable energy sources. No adjustments is drawn inescapably toone generation has ever faced sucha com- principal conclusion: The time hascome plex set of issues requiring immediate to make peace with each other so that we attention. Preceding generations have can make peace with the earth. Notes

Chapter 1. Thresholds of Change Cleared,"Washington Post,September 29, 1986. 1. National Science Foundation,"Na- tional Ozone Expedition Statement,"press 5. "Ukrainian Nuclear Fire Spreads Wide release, Washington,D.C., October 20, Tragedy With Radiation Cloud,-Wall Street 1986; National Aeronautics and Space Ad- Journal,April 30, 1986; "Soviet Union Hit By ministration(NASA). -PresentStateof Nuclear Disaster,"Christian Science Monitor, Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere" April 30, 1986. (draft), Washington, D.C., January 1986; 6. For morf: information UnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtection on the Food Se- Agency (EPA), "Analysis of Strategies for curity Act of 1985, see R. Neil Sampson, "A Protecting the Ozone Layer," prepared for Landmark for Soil Conservation,-American the Working Group Meeting, Geneva, Swit- Land Fonim Magazine,Spring 1986; Tim T. zerland, January 1985; National Research Phipps, "The Farm Bill, Resources and Envi- Council,Causes and Effects of Changes in Strato- ronmental Quality,"Resources,Winter 19S6. spheric Ozone: Update 1983(Washington, D.C.: 7, Herman E. Daly, "Towarda New Eco- National Academy Press, 1984). nomic Model,"Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2. P.D. Jones et al., "Global Temperature April 1986. Variations Between 1861 and 1984,"Nature, 8. See G.H.M. Krause et al., "Forest De- July 31, 1986; -Warming of Alaskan Tundra cline in Europe: Possible Causes and Etiol- Linked to Use of Fossil Fuels," NewYork ogy," paper presented at the International Times,November 1, 1986. Symposium on Acid Precipitation, Ontario, 3. -World's Population to Reach Mile- Canada, September 1985; see also Susan stone of 5 Billion Today."Washington Post, Tifft. "Requiem for the Forest,"Time(inter- July 7, 1986; figures on the number ofyoung national edition), September 16, 1985. people entering reproductive yearsover the 9. Cropland area from United States De- next generation derived by Worldwatch from partment of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Population Reference Bureau,1986 World Research Service (ERS),World Indices of Agri- Population Data Sheet(Washington, D.C.: cultural and Food Production 1950-89(unpub- 1986), lished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1986). 4, Philip Shabecoff, "Action is Urged To 10. Der Bundesminister Ftir ErnShrung, Save Species," New York Times,September Landwirtschaft, und Forsten,"Neuartige 28, 1986; Roger Lewin, "A Mass Extinction Waldschäden in der Bundesrepublik Without Asteroids,"Science, October 3, Deutschland," Bonn, West Germany, Octo- 1986; Boyce Rensberger, "Scientists See ber 1983; Federal Ministry of Food, Agricul- Mass Extinction As Rainforests Are ture, and Forestry, "1984 Forest Damage

231 (216) Notes Survey," Bonn, West Germany, October Review (Cambridge: Oxford University Press, 1984. 1982). 11. See Sandra Postel, "Protecting Forests 19. Robert E. Dickinson and Ralph J. Cic- from Air Pollution and Acid Rain,- in Lester erone, "Future Global Warming From Atmo- R. Brown et al., Stale of the World-1985 (New spheric Trace Gases," Nature, January 9, York: W.W. Norton & Co, 1985), 1986. 12, D.W, Schindler et al., "Long-Term 20. B.B. Vohra, The Greening of India (New Ecosystem Stress: The Effect of Years of Ex- Delhi: The Indian National Trust for Art and perimental Acidification on a Small Lake," Cultural Heritage (INTACH), 1985); B.B. Science, June 21, 1985. Vohra, Land and Water: Towards a Policy for Life 13. Byron W. Bache, "The Acidification of Support Systems (New Delhi: INTACH, 1985); Soils," and B. Ulrich, "Production and Con- Janaki Nair, "Many Faces Of Drought," Eco- sumption of Hydrogen Ions in the Eco- nomic and Political Weekly, May 3, 1986. sphere," in T.C. Hutchinson and M. Havas, 21. Peter M. Vitousek et al., "Human Ap- eds., Effects of Acid Precipitation on Terrestrial propriation of the Products of Photosynthe- Ecosystems (New York: Plenum Press, 1980); sis," BioScience, June 1986. Tomas Paces, "Sources of Acidification in Central Europe Estimated from Elemental 22. Ratios of tree cutting to tree planting Budgets in Small Basins," Nature, May 2, from United Nations Food and Agriculture 1985; jan Nilsson, "Soil is Vulnerable Too," Organization (FAO), Forest Resources Divi- Acid (Sweden), August 1986. sion, Tropical Forest Resources, Forestry Paper 30 (Rome: 1982); Eneas Salati and Peter B. 14. J.P. Malingreau et al., -Remote Sens- Vose, "Amazon Basin: A System in Equilib- ing of Forest Fires: Kalimantan and North rium," Science, July 13, 1984. Borneo 1982-83,- Ambio, Vol. 14, No. 6, 1985, 23. The amount of energy (oil equiva- lent) used in agriculture is a Worldwatch In- 15. Ibid. stitute figure based on the amount of oil 16. World Bank, "The 1983-84 Drought embodied in the manufacture and mainte- in Sub-Saharan AfricaShort Term Impact nance of farm machinery and inputs such as Desertification and Other Long-Term Is- fertilizers and pesticides, and the amount of sues" (draft), Washington, D.C., May 1984. energy needed to run tractors and irrigation pumps. No aggregate data exist for global 17. Lester R. Brown, "Conserving Soils," pesticide use, so this was assumed to be 20 in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World- percent of the total energy for all other cat- 1984 (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1984). egories. Energy used in the manufacture of 18. Preindustrial concentration of CO2 fertilizer and fabrication of farm machinery from Eric W. Wolff and David A. Peel, -The based on David Pimentel, Handbook of Energy Record of Global Pollution in Polar Snow Utilization in Agriculture (Boca Raton, Fla.: and Ice," Nature, February 14, 1985; atmo- CRC Press,1980); energy consumed by spheric levels of CO2 at Mauna Loa from tractors based on USDA, Agricultural Statistics Charles D. Keeling, Scripps Institution of (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- Oceanography, private communication, June ing Office, various years); energy for irriga- 26,1986, updating C.D. Keeling etal., tion pumping based on Gordon Sloggett, "Measurements of the Concentration of Car- Energy and U.S. Agriculture- Irrigation Pumping, bon Dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory, Ha- 1974-83 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern- waii," in William C. Clark, ed., Carbon Dioxide ment Printing Office, 1985); total fertilizer

232 Notes (217) consumption from FAO, Fertilizer Yearbooks Bundesrepublik Deutschland,- paper pre- (Rome: various years); world irrigated arca sented at Symposium on Costs of Environ- from W.R. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drain- mental Pollution, Bonn, West Germany, Sep- age in the World," paper presented at the tember 12-13, 1985. InternationalConference on Foodand Water, TexasA&M University, College Sta- 30. Debora MacKenzie, -Acid Rain May tion, May 26-30,1985, and from W.R. Trigger Alpine Avalanches," New Scientist, Rangeky, "IrrigationCurrent Trends and January 2, 1986. a Future Perspective," World Bank Seminar, 31. Ann Henderson-Sellers and Kendall February 1983. McGuffic, "The Threat From Melting Ice- 24. Worldoilproductiondatafrom caps," New Scientist, June 12, 1986. American Petroleum Institute (API), Basic Pe- 32. Ibid. trokum Data Book (Washington, D.C.: 1986); growth in world grain production from 33. Joseph Lclyveld, "Dutch Inaugurate USDA, ERS, World Indices, Dike, a $2.4 Billion Marvel," New York Times, October 5, 1986, 25. Oil production 197345 and world oil production in 1985 from API, Basic Petroleum 34. Thorkild Jacobsen and Robert M. Data Book: grain production from USDA, Adams, "Saltand Silt in Ancient ERS, World Indices. Mesopotamian Agriculture," Science, Novem- ber 21, 1958; Diane E. Gelburd, "Managing 26. U.S. oil imports from British Petro- Salinity: Lessons from the Past," Journal leum Company, BP Statistical Review of World of Soil and , July/August Energy (London: 1986). 1985. 27. Indian flooding due to deforestation 35. Jacobsen and Adams, "Ancient Meso- inthe Himalayan watershed from John potamian Agriculture"; Gelburd, -Managing Spears,"Preserving Watershed Environ- Salinity." ments," Unasylva, No. 137, 1982; siltation in the hydroelectric facilities of Central Amer- 36, Jacobsenand Adams, "Ancient ica from Catherine Canfield, Tropical Moist Mesopotamian Agriculture." Forests: The Resource,thePeople,the Threat 37. Norman Hammond. "The Emergence (Washington, D.C.: Earthscan/International of Mayan Civilization," Scientific Anzerican, Au- Institute for Environment and Development, gust 1986; Robert J. Sharer, "Mathematics 1982), and the Maya Collapse- (a review of The Dy- 28. Amount of carbon released into the namics of Apocalypse), The Sciences,May/June atmosphere, total and per person, from 1986. Gregg Mar land and Ralph M. Rotty, Carbon 38. Sharer, "Mathematics and the Maya Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels: A Procedure Collapse. For Estimation and Results For 1950-81 (Wash- ington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy. 39. John W.G. Lowe,The Dynamics of 1983). Apocalypse(Albuquerque, N.M.: University of New MexicoPress, 1985). 29. Information on the West German wood market from Von H. Stein lin, "Wald- 40. Per capita grain production in Africa sterben und Raumordung" (draft), Albert- and Latin America from USDA,ERS,World Ludwigs University, Freiburg, West Ger- Indices. many, 1986;HJ.Ewersetal.,"Zur 41. For a discussion of food-related riots, Monetarisierung der WaldschNden in der see Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf,

233 (218) Notes "Assessing Ecological Decline,- in Lester 7. World Bank, Desertification in the Sahelian Brown et al., State of the World- 1986 (New and Sudanian Zones of West Africa (Washington, York; W.W. Norton & Co., 1986). D.C.: 1985). 42. Earth System Sciences Committee, 8. Ibid. Earth System Science Overview: A Program for Glo- 9. James Nations and H. Jeffrey Leonard, balChange(Washington,D.C.:National AeronauticsandSpaceAdministration, "Grounds of Conflict in Central America,- in 1986). Andrew Maguire and Janet Welsh Brown, Bordering on Trouble: Resources and Politics in 43, Additions to world population from Latin America (Bethesda, Md.: Adler & Adler, Population Reference Bureau, 1986 World 1986). Population Data Sheet. 10. Three stages in the population/natu- 44. W.H. Lindner, World Commission on ral support system relationship are discussed Environment and Development, Geneva, in Kenneth Newcombe, An Economic jastifica- Switzerland,private communication, No- Hon for Rural Afforestation: The Case of Ethiopia, vember 5, 1986. Energy Department Paper No. 16 (Washing- ton, D.C.: World Bank, 1984). Chapter 2. Analyzing the Demographic 11. Herbert R. Block, The Planetaly Product Trap in 1980: A Creative Pause? (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 1981). I. The demographic transition theory is a term first used by Frank W. Notestein in 1945 12. Ibid.; International Monetary Fund, in reference to the experience of Western World Economic Outlook (Washington, D.C.: Europe; it was later applied to the Third May 1986). World. See Regina McNamara, "Demo- 13. Grain production data derived from graphic Transition Theory," International En- U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), cyclopedia of Population,Vol.I (New York: Economic Research Service (ERS), World In- MacMillan Publishing Co., 1982), dicesof AgriculturalandFoodProduction 2. Frank W. Notestein, Dudley Kirk, and 1950-83 (unpublished printout) (Washing- Sheldon Segal, "The Problem of Population ton, D.C.: 1986). Control,- in Philip M. Hauser, ed, The Popu- lation Dilemma (Englewood Cliffs, NJ.: Pren- 14. For a discussion of Mexico's debt tice Hall, Inc., 1963). problems, see John C. Pool and Stephen C. Stamos "Devising a Bankruptcy Plan for 3. Populationfiguresthroughoutthis Mexico," New York Times, June 8, 1986, and chapter, unless indicated otherwise, from Robert Pear, "Hard Times in Mexico Cause Population Reference Bureau, 1986 World Concern in U.S.," New York Times, October PopulationDataSheet(Washington,D.C.: 19, 1986; Brazil's foreign debt discussed in 1986). Alan Riding, "Brazil Gets Back on the Fast 4. United Nations Food and Agriculture Track,- New York Times, October 12, 1986; Organization (FAO) and United Nations U.S. federal debt reported in U.S. Census Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), Ex- Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States pert Consultation Report on Land Resources for 1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Populations of the Future (Rome: 1982). Printing Office, 1986). 5. Ibid. 15. USDA, ERS, World Indices. 6. Ibid. 16. Ibid.

23 4 Notes (219) 17. Changes in per capita income 1979-84 26. "Africa Struggles for Food Security," from B. Blazic-Mettner, Economic Analysis journal of Commerce,May 22, 1986. and Projections Department, World Bank, ashington, D.C., private communication, 27. Wiarda and Siquiera Wiarda,Popula july 25, 1086; per capita income data for non, Internal Unrest, and U.S. Security. 1985 from David Cieslikowski, Economic 28. Jorge Castaneda, "Mexico's Coming Analysis and Projections Department, World Challenges,"Foreign Policy,Fall 1986. Bank, Washington, D.C., private communica- tion, October 22. 1986; data for 1986 from 29. Ibid. USDA, ERS,World Situation and Outlook Report 30. Ibid. (Washington. D.C.: June 1986). 31. Ibid. 18. Radha Singha,Landlessness: A Growing 32. Grain production data in Egypt from Problem(Rome: FAO, 1984). USDA, ERS,World Indices. 19. Ibid. 33. Paul Jabber, -Egypt's Crisis, Amer- 20. Inderjit Singh,Small Farmers and the ica'sDilemma,"ForeignAffairs,Summer Landless in South Asia(draft) (Washington, 1986, D.C.: World Bank, July 1981). 34. John Kifner, "Egypt's Army Praised in 21. For information on Brazil's resettle- Quelling Riots, But For Mubarak, Crisis Is ment programs, see Philip M. Fearnside, Not Over,"New York Times,March 9, 1986; "Spatial Concentration of Deforestation in Hirsh Goodman, "The Terrible Tide,"New the Brazilian Amazon,-ihnbio,Vol. 15, No. 2. Republic,March 24,1986. See also John 1986, and Mac Margolis, "Land Disputes Kifner, "The Egyptian Economy Has No Trigger Wave of Violence in Brazil,"Wash- Mace To Turn,"New York Tinle5,July 6, 1986. ington Post,August 29, 1985; Indonesia's re- settlement program is described in Nicholas 35. Per capita income distribution in Cen- Guppy, -Tropical Deforestation: A Global tral America from Diaz-Briquets,Conflict in View,"Foreign Affairs,Spring 1984. Central America. 22. Singha,Landlessness: ii Growing Problem, 36. Data on income distribution from World Bank,World Development Report 1986 23, Nazli Choucri,Population and Con w (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986). (New York: UNFPA, 1983); Howard Wiarda 37. USDA, ERS, and Iecla Siquiera Wiarda,Population, Internal World Indices. Unrest, and U.S. Security in Latin America(Am- 38. John C. Pool and Stephen C. Stamos herst, Mass.: International Area Studies Pro- Jr., -Devising a Bankruptcy Plan for Mex- grams, 1985). ico,"New York Times,June 8, 1986. 24. Sergio Diaz-Briquets,Cor_ wt in Cent-al 39. Robert J. Sharer, "Mathematics and America; The Demographic Dimension,Popula- the Maya Collapse" (a review ofThe Dynamics tion Trends and Public Policy No. 10 (Wash- of Apocalypse), The Sciences,May/June 1986. ington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau, 1986). 25. Georgie Anne Geyer, -Our Disinte- Chapter 3. Assessing the Future of Ur- grating World: The Menace of Global banization Anarchy," in Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc., 1. Number of people living in cities in 1985Britannica Book of the Year(Chicago: 1950 from Bertrand Renaud,National Urbani- 1985). zationPoliciesinDeveloping Countries,Staff

2 5 (220) Notes Working Paper No. 347 (Washington, D.C.: 12. Salas,The State of World Population World Bank, 1981); number in 1986 from 1986. 1986 World Population Reference Bureau, 13, Lees,Cities Perceived. PopulationDataSheet(Washington,D.C.: 1986). 14. JeffreyBartholet,"Mediterranean's 'Pearl' Now Awash in Raw Sewage,"Washing- 2. For a discussion of the historical evolu- ton Post,August 21, 1986. tion of cities throughout the world, see Lewis Mumford,The City inHistory (Orlando, Fla.: 15. Survey on African households from Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, 1961). Adepoju, "Large Cities in Africa." 3. Renaud,Urbanization in Developing Coun- 16. Weltstädte defined in Lees,Cities Per- tries. ceived;Salas,The State of World Population 1986. 4, Mumford,The City in History. 17. Jonathan Kandell, "Nation in Jeop- 5. Percentage of British living in cities in ardy: Mexico City's Growth Once Fostered, 1800 from Andrew Lees,CitiesPerceived: Turns Into Economic Burden,"Wall Street Urban Society in European and American Thought, Journal,October 4, 1985. 1820-19-10(New York: Columbia University Press, 1985). 18.For urban economic concentration in Mexico, the Philippines, and others, see 6. Population Reference Bureau,1986 Jorge E. Hardoy and David Satterthwaite, World Population Data Sheet.The definition of -Third World Cities and the Environment of an urban area differs from country to country Poverty,"Geofonan,Vol. 15, No. 3, 1984. and by region. What is considered a city in relatively unurbanized Africa may not be 19. Andrew Hamer,Brazilian Industrializa- considered a city in Asia; minimum city size tion and Economic Concentration in Sao Paulo: A for the purposes of definition may vary from Survey(Washington,D.C.: World Bank, 10,000 to over 20,000 people. Global and Water Supply and Urban Development De- regional percentages used throughout this partment, 1982). chapter are United Nations averages based 20, United Nations Department of Inter- on individual country censuses. nationalEconomicand SocialAffairs 7. Rafael M. Salas,The State of World Popu- (DIESA),Population Growth and Policiesin lation 1986(New York: United Nations Fund Mega-Cities: Metro Manila,Population Policy for Population Activities (UNFPA), 1986). Paper No. 5 (New York: 1986). 8. Ricardo Jordan, "Population and the 21. Food prices rise in the 1972-76 period Planning of Large Cities in Latin America,- from International Monetary Fund,Interna- paper presented at the International Confer- tional Financial Statistics Yearbooks(Washing- ence on Population and the Urban Future ton, D.C.: various years). sponsored by UNFPA, Barcelona, Spain, May 22. For information on Egypt's subsidies 19-22, 1986. and the economic burden they impose, see 9. Aderanti Adepoju, "Population and the Christopher S. Wren, "Cairo Seems to Lose Planning of Large Cities in Africa," paper a Chance to Prosper in a Time of Peace,"New presented at UNFPA Conference. York Times,August 23, 1986, and John Kifner, "The Egyptian Economy Has No Place To 10. Aprodicio A. Laquian, "Population Turn,"New York Times,July 6, 1986. A de- and the Planning of Large Cities in Asia,- tailed discussion of different kinds of subsi- paper presented at UNFPA Conference. dies and their varir.us ramifications can be 11. Ibid. found in Grant Scobie, "Food Consumption

23 6 Notes (221) Policies" (background paper prepared for Individual Countries(Washington, D.C.: vari- WorldBank, World Development Report 1986), ous years); USDA, FAS,Foreign Agriculture Cir- RuakuraAgricultural Researcl.Center, cularRice Reference Tables For Individual Coun- Hamilton, New Zealand, August 1985. tries(Washington, D.C.: various years). 23. Total energy used in the United States 30. Yue-Man Yeung, "Urban Agriculture food system from David Pimentel,Handbook in Asia," The Food Energy Nexus Pro- of Energy Utilization in Agriculture (BocaRaton, gramme of the United Nations University, Fla.: CRC Press, 1980). Tokyo, September 1985, 24. Sandra Poste!, "Protecting Forests," Ibid. in Lester R. Brown et al.,State of the World- 1984(New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1984), 32. John Spitler, "Many Hard-Pressed U.S. Farmers Sell Produce Directly to Pub- 25. B. Bowonder et al.,Deforestation and lic,"Christian Science Monitor,November 12, FuelwoodUse in UrbanCentres(Hyderabad, 1986. India: Centre for Energy, Environment, and Technology and National Remote Sensing 33. Nutrients present in human wastes Agency, 1985), that are lost through disposal isa World- watch Institute estimate based on figures 26. The energy efficiency of charcoal mak- from A.M. Bruce and R.D. Davis, "Britain ing is roughly twice the yield by weight from Uses Half Its Fertilizer As Sludge,"Biocycle, the wood burned. Energy efficiency ranges March 1984; Robert K. Bastian and Jay Ben- from 20 percent to 50 percent, depending on forado, -Waste Treatment: Doing What the ypc of charcoal production method Comes Naturally,"Technology Review,Feb- used, whether with earthen mounds or steel ruary/March 1983; Hillel1. Shuval et al., kilns. A more detailed discussion of this topic 'astewater Irrigationin Developing Countries; canbe found in Gerald Foley, Charcoal Mak- Health Effects and Technical Solutions(Washing- ing in Developing Countries(Washington, D.C.: ton, D.C.: United Nations Development Pro- Earthscan/Imernational Institute for Envi- gram and World Bank, 1986); United States ronment and Development, 1986). Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),En- 27. For a discussion of World Bank efforts vironmental Regulations and Technology: Use and to boost hydroelectric capacity in the Third Disposal of Municipal Wastewater Sludge(Wash- World, see Christopher Flavin,Electricity For ington, D.C.: 1984). a Developing lVorld: New Directions,World- 34. Seoul's night soil collection system de- watch Paper 70 (Washington, D.C.: World- scribed in United Nations, DIESA,Population watch Institute, June 1986), Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities; Seoul(New 28. Walter Sullivan, "Parley is Told of York: 1986); China's use of night soil inHil- European Gains from Burning Waste and lel I. Shuyal et al.,Appropriate Technology for Garbage,"New York Times, May11, 1978; Water Supply and Sanitation: Night-soil Compost- Christopher Flavin and Cynthia Pollock, ing(Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1981). "Harnessing Renewable Energy,- in Lester 35. The First Royal Commission in En- R. Brown et al.,State of the World-1985(New gland set a precedent with guidelines and York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1985) suggestions for the land application ofsew- 29. Food self-sufficiencyinIndia and age wastes in 1865. A detailed discussion of China derived by Worldwatch from United the history of nutrient recycling in European States Department of Agriculture (USDA), cities can be found in Shuval et al.,Wastewater Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS),Foreign Irrigation in Developing Countries. Agriculture CircularGrain Reference Tables For 36. Yeung, "Urban Agriculture in Asia." 237 (222) Notes 37. EPA, Primer for Was tewater Treat ent 46, Hong Kong's water supplyisdis- (Washington, D.C.: 1984). cussed in Ian Douglas, The Urban Environment 38. Kuwait's wastewater recycling plans (Baltimore, Md.: Edward Arnold Publishers, 1983), from "From Effluents to Affluence?" Techni- cal Review: Middle East, May/June 1986; infor- 47. Catherine Caufield, -The California mation on Hidalgo from Shuval et al. Waste- Approach to Plumbing," New Scientist, Febru- water Irrigation in Developing Countries. ary 21,1985. 39. Shuval et al., Wastewater Irrigation in De- 48, Douglas, The Urban Environment. veloping Countries. 49. Quoted in Hardoy and Satterthwaitc, 40. An excellent discussion of wastewater "Third World Cities and the Environment of aquaculture in practice in a number of coun- Poverty.- tries can be found in Peter Edwards, Aquacul- 50. Ibid. ture: A Component of Low Cost Sanitation Technol- ogy (Washington,D.C.:UnitedNations 51. Ibid. Development Program and World Bank, 52. Mumford, The City in History. 1985). 53. Michael P. Todaro and Jerry Stilkind, 41. Robert K. Bastian, EPA, Washington, City Bias and Rural Neglect: The Dilemma o D.C., private communication, September Urban Development (New York: Population 1986,updating Bastian and Benforado, Council, 1981), "Waste Treatment: Doing What Comes Nat- urally." 54. Michael Lipton, "Urban Bias and Food Policy in Poor Countries,- Food Policy, No- 42. S.C.Talashilkar and O.P.Virnal, vember 1975. "From Nutrient-Poor Compost to High Grade Fertilizer," Biocycle, March 1984. 55. Garza quoted in Kandell, "Nation in Jeopardy"; Lipton, "Urban Bias and Food 43. Martin Strauss, "About Wastewater Policy in Poor Countries." and Excreta Use in India- (draft), World Health Organization International Reference 56. Todaro and Stilkind,City Bias and Centre for Wastes Disposal, Duebendorf, Rural Neglect. Switzerland, June 1986. 57. Scobie, "Food ConsumptionPoli- 44. Detailed discussions of the pathogens cies.- found in human wastes and the treatments 58. Ye Shunzan, "Current Policies and and management strategies necessary to Tendency of China's Urbanization," pre- safely recycle wastes for agricultural pur- pared for Conference on Population Growth, poses can be found in Richard G. Feacham et Urbanization, and Urban Policies in the Asia- al., Health Aspects of Excreta and Sullage Manage- Pacific Region, East-West Center, Honolulu, mentA State of the Art Review (Washington, Hawaii, April 8-12,1985; Martin King Whyte D.C.: World Bank, 1980), in Shuval et al., and William L. Parish, Urban Life in Contem- lVastewater Irrigation in Developing Countries, in pory China (Chicago: University of Chicago Shuval et al., Night-soil Composting, and in Press, 1984). World Health Organization, The Riskto Health of Microbes in Sewage Sludge Applied to Land (Copenhagen: 1981). Chapter 4. Reassessing Nuclear Power 45. Beltsville Aerated Rapid Composting 1. USSR State Committee on the Utiliza- System. designed by USDA scientists, dis- tion of Atomic Energy, -The Accident at the cussed in Shuval et al, Night-soil Composting. Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant andits 238 Notes (223) Consequences, draft, Information Com- Dr. Robert Gale, University of Califor- piled for the International Atomic Energy nia at Los Angeles, presentation at "Sympo- Agency (IAEA) Experts' Meeting, Vienna, sium on Chernobyl: How the Soviet System August 25-29, 1986; direct financial losses Responded," Russian Research Center, Har- from "The Cost of Chernobyl,"European En- vard University, October 6, 1986; McCally, ergy Report(Financial Times Business Infor- "Hospital Number Six." mation), June 13, 1986. 14. USSR State Com -Accident at 2. Worldwatch Institute projections, Chernobyl.- based on trends discussed in detail later in this chapter. 15. Stuart Diamond, "2 Experts Foresee Deaths of 24,000 Tied to Chernobyl,"New 3. "Swedish Chief Assails Nuclear Po York Times,August 27, 1986; Gale, at "Sym- New York Times,August 18, 1986. posium on ChernobyL" 4. Quoted in Ralph E. Lapp, "The Ein- 16. Frank von Hippel and Thomas B. stein Letter That Started It All,-New York Cs.dchran,"Chernobyl:Estimating Long- Times Magazine,August 2, 1964. Term Health Effects,"Bulletin of the Atomic 5. Gordon Thompson, "What Happened Scientists,August/September 1986. at Reactor Four,"Bulletin of the Atomic Seien 17. "Sweden: Health Consequences of ts,August/September 1986. Chernobyl Assessed,-Nuclear News,July 6. USSR State Committee, "Accident at 1986. Chernobyl.- 18. Bureau Europeen des Unions De Con- 7. Ibid. sommateurs,Chernobyl: The Aftermath. 8. C. Hohenemser et al., "Ch nobyl: An 19. Hohenemser et al., "An Early Re- Early Report,"Environment,June 1986; Bu- port"; Bennerstech et al.,Chernobyl: Fallout reau Europeen des Unions De Consom- Measurements and Consequences. mateurs,Chernobyl: The Aftermath(Brussels: 20. -Italy Three Months After Cherno- 1986). byl,"WISE News Communique(Amsterdam), 9. Hohenemser et al., "An Early Report"; September 5, 1986; David Webster, "How Torkel Bennerstedt et al.,Chernobyl: Fallout Ministers Misled Britain About Chernobyl," Measurements and Consequences(Stockholm: New Scientist,October 9, 1986, The Swedish Institute of Radiation Protec- 21. Judith Miller, "Trying to Quell tion, 1986). a Furor, France Forms a Panel on Chernobyl," 10. USSR State Committe"Accident at New York Times,May 14, 1986; "Le Gouverne- ChernobyL" ment Tente D'apaiser la Polemique sur les 11, Bureau Europeen des Unions De Con- Effets de L'accident de Tchernoby1,-Le Monde,May 13, 1986. sommateurs,Chernobyl; The Aftermath;Stuart Diamond, "Long-Term Chernobyl Fallout: 22, World Health Organization, -Cherno- Comparison to Bombs Altered,"New York byl Reactor Accident: Report of a Consulta- Times,November 4, 1986. tion," Copenhagen, May 6, 1986; "EEC Pro- 12, Michael McCally, "Hospital Number poses Nuclear Safeguards,"European Energy Six: A First-Hand Report,"Bulletin of the Report(Financial Times Business Informa- Atomic Scientists,August/September 1986; tion), August 8, 1986. Herbert L. Abrams, "How Radiation Victims 23. "Swiss Plan Nuclear Meeting,"Euro- Suffer,-Bulletin of the AtomicScientists, August/ pean Energy Report(Financial Times Business September 1986. Information), September 19, 1986.

2 3 9 (224 ) Notes

24. Francis X. Clines, "Chernobyl Shakes "Nuclear Deception: the U.S. Record,"Bulle- Reindeer Culture of Lapps," NIW YOrkTimes, tin of the Atomic Scientists,August/September September 14, 1986. 1986. 25. "Cost of Chernobyl,"European Energy 32. Author's observations based on dis- Report;"Chernobyl Costs Put at $3 Billion," cussions with antinuclear activistsinfive journal of Commerce,September 22, 1986. European countries in August and Septem- ber 1986. 26. USSR State Committee, "Accident at Chernobyl"; L.M. Toth et al,The Three Mile 33. "Chernobyl: Western Europe's Reac- Island Accident: Diagnosis and Prognosis(Wash- tion,-EuropeanEnergyReport(Financial ington, D.C.: American Chemical Society, Times Business Information), May 16, 1986; 1986); "Costs at $3 Billion,"Journal Of Com- "Massive Response to Chernobyl in FRG," merce. WISE News Communique(Amsterdam), June 13, 1986; Italian figure from Laura Radicon- 27. Susan Tirbutt, "Farmers Claim £10 cini, Amici della Terra, Rome, personal com- Million Chernobyl Damages,"The Guardian munication, July 31, 1986; Michael Parkin (Manchester),August27, 1986;David and Edward Vulliamy, "Villagers Foil Nu- Winder, -Swedes Come Unglued Over clear Dump Tests,"The Guardian(Manches- Atomic Energy,"ChnistianScience Monitor, ter), August 19, 1986, and -Villagers Win September 9, 1986; "West German Farmers Round Two,"The Guardian(Manchester), to be Compensated for Chernobyl-Related August 20, 1986. Losses,- World Environment Report,August 12, 1986; Jackson Diehl, -Poland, Facing 34. "Sweden After Chernobyl,"WISE Hardships, May Try Liberalizing,"Vashing- News Communique(Amsterdam), September 5, ton Post,August 29, 1986. 1986; Netherlands vote from Asa Moberg, "Nuclear Power in Crisis: A Country by 28. Walter Pincus, -Chernobyl Is Focus of Country Report," Lima, Sweden, unpub- IAEA Session,-Washington Post,September lished, June 1986; "End of the Line for Ital- 30,1986; Stephen Wermiel, "Chernobyl ian Nuclear?"European Energy Report(Finan- Raises Questions on Liability of Soviets for cial Times Business Information), Damage in Other Countries,"Wall StreetJour- September 19, 1986; "A Fight to the Fin- nal,May 12, 1986. nish,"Sien-a,October 1986. 29. Gary Lee, "Sovie s Begin Recovery 35. Andrew Holmes, "The Ratchet from Disaster's Damage,"Washington Post, Turns Again on Safety and Economics,- October 27, 1986; Three Mile Island figure is Energy Economist(Financial Times Business author's estimate; problems of Soviet encrgy Information), June 1986; poll information economy from Theodore Shabad, Soviet en- in Table 4-3 from "Gallup Poll: Alarm ergy expert, presentation at "Symposium on Over AtomicPower,"SundayTelegraph Chernobyl." (London), March 16, 1986, and from An- 30. Alexander Amerisov, "A Chronology drew Holmes, Financial Times Business In- of Soviet Media Coverage,"Bulletin of the formation, private communication, Septem- Atomic Scientists,August/September 1986. ber 25, 1986; -A Referendum to Halt All Nuclear Activities in Italy,"Nucleonics Week, 31. John Kemeny etal.,The Need for May 15, 1986; Washington Post-ABC News Change: The Legacy of TMI(Washington, D.C.: Poll, "785 of Americans Balk at New Nu- U.S. Government Printing Office,1979); clear Reactors,"Washington Post,May 24, Walter C. Patterson, -Chernobyl: Worst But 1986; Hubert Poznaril, Eco-lnstitute, Ljubl- NOE First,"Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,Au- jana, Yugoslavia, private communication, gust/September 1986; Barton J. Bernstein, September 25, 1986; Gallup of Canada, pri-

210 Notes (225 ) vate communication, September 24, 1986; 45. Wiedemann, -Cattenorn-; Dobbs, Gallup Institute of Finland Poll, "Nuclear "Fission Splits France." Opposition Doubles in Finland,"journal of Commerce,May 9, 1986. 46. -Police Break Up Protest at West Ger- man A-Plant,"New York Times,April I, 1086; 36. "78% of Americans Balk at New Nu- author's observations in travel to Wackers- clearReactovs,"WashingtonPost;"More dorf, August 31, 1986. Than Just a Soviet Problem,"U.S. News and World Report,May 19, 1986. 47. "Nuclear Protests Cross Borders, European Energy Report(Financial Times Busi- 37, David Dickson, -France Weighs Ben- ness Information), July 11, 1986; Robert Mc- efits, Risks of Nuclear Gamble,"Science,Au- Donald, "German-Austrian Tensions Mount gust 27, 1986. Over Planned Wackersdorf Reprocessing 38. "Le Gouvernement Tente D'apaiser," Plant,"Nuclear Waste News,Sample Issue, Le Monde;Miller, "France Forms a Panel"; 1986; James A. Markham, "Spreading the "France Discovers the Nuclear Scare,"New Anti-Nuclear Gospel in Europe,"New York Scientist,May 29, 1986, Times,August 3, 1986. 39. Jackson Diehl, "Chernobyl's Other 48, Karen DeYoung,Massive Nuclear Losers,"Washington Post,June 8, 1986; Mi- Site Disturbs Britons,"Washington Post,May chael T. Kaufman, "Three Weeks Later, 'The 19. 1986; -Ireland vs. Sellafield,"WISE News Claud' Still Bothers the Poles,"New York Communique(Amsterdam), April 4, 1986, Times,May 20, 1986; "Poles Protest Con- 49, Lee Yee, "China's Plan for Nuclear struction of Nuclear Plant," Washington Post, Plant Illuminates Hong Kong Politics,-Wall May 17, 1986. Street Journal,September 29, 1986; "Show- 40. "Confusion Reigned in Yugoslavia," down Over Daya Bay,"Asiaweek,September Nucleonics Week,May 15, 1986; -International 14, 1986, Briefs: A Call for a Referendum in East Ger- 50. Yee, -Hong Kong Politics-. "Show- many,"Nuclear Neu!, August 1986; M. Med- down Over Daya Bay,"Asiaweek. vedkov, former member, Moscow Trust Group, Vienna, personal communication, 51. Paul Lewis, -94 Nations Urge Reactor September 26, 1986, Safeguards,"New York Times,September 27, 1986; "Making Safety International,"Euro- 41. Worldwatch Institute calculations pean Energy Report(Financial Times Business based on map included in "Von dcr Atomru- Information), June 6, 1986. inc zum Atomruin,"AktionMtffileberg Stillegen, Bern, Switzerland, 1986. 52. Pincus, -Chernobyl is Focus.- 42. Author's assessments basedon meet- 53. Electricity shares from IAEA,Nuclear ings with government officials andnongov- Power: Status and Trends, 1986 Edition(Vienna: ernmental observers and activists in Stock- 1986). holm, August 11-12, 1986, and in 54. Worldwatch Insitute estimates based Copenhagen, August 13-14, 1986. on numbers of plants and current average 43. "Sweden Agrees to Study Early Bar- constructioncostsworldwideof about seback Phase-Out,"Nuclear News,July 1986. $1,500 per kilowatt. 44. Erich Wiedemann, -Cattenom: Stor- 55. IAEA, 1974 AnnualReport(Vienna: 1974). fall fur die gute Nachbarschaft,"Der Spiegel, September I, 1986; Michael Dobbs, "Fission 56. Worldwatch Institute projection based Splits France, W. Germany,"Washington Post, on assumed completion of 70,000 megawatts August 4, 1986. by 1990 and 55,000 additional megawatts in

241. (226) Notes the nineties, mainly in the Soviet Union and Voiture a la Casse et Acheter une Diesel Eastern Europe. The year 2000 estimates are . . Pour Rouler 10,000 km par An," WISE highly speculative but are more likely to be BulletinInternational(Paris), June15-30, overestimates than underestimates. 1986. 57. Atomic Industrial Forum (AIF), "His- 65. -Power Too Cheap to Meter," Energy torical Profile of U.S. Nuclear Power Devel- Economist, opment," Bethesda, Md., January 1, 1986; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy 66. Jacques Neher, "France: N-Power Ex- Information Agency (EIA), Nuclear Power pertiseAimed Overseas,"BostonGlobe, Plant Construction Activity 1985 (Washington, March 9,1986. D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice, 67. "World List of Nuclear Power Plants," 1986). Nuclear News, August 1986; "Japan Lowers 58. DOE, EIA, Month ly Energy Review, June Nuclear Capacity Forecast, Citing Conserva- 1986; AIF, "Historical Profile-; coal data tion,Political Opposition,- ElectricUtility from DOE and Kidder, Peabody, and Co., Weekly, January 16, 1984; Sub-Committee New York, private communications. on Nuclear Energy of Advisory Committee for Energy, Japanese Ministry of Interna- 59. DOE, EIA, Nuclear Power Plant Construc- tional Trade and Industry, "Nuclear Energy tion Activity 1985; coal and nuclear costs per Vision:Perspectivesof Nuclear Energy kilowatt-hour based on ibid. and AIF, "Eco- for the 2 I st Century," Tokyo September nomic Survey," Bethesda, Md., September 1986. 25, 1986. 68. Theodore Shabad, "News Notes," So- 60. James Cook, "Nuclear Follies," Forbes, viet Geography, April 1986; "Statement by the February 11, 1985. Head of the USSR Delegation to the Special 61. Union of Concerned Scientists, Safety Session of the IAEA General Conference," Second: A Critical Evaluation of NBC's First Dec- Vienna, September 24, 1986, ade (Washington, D.C.: 1985). 69. George Stein, "Soviet Nuclear Indus- 62. Ulrich Steger, State of Hesse Minister try Riddled with Problems,- Los Angeles Tunes, of Economics and Technology, -The Nu- May 16, 1986; Dusko Doder, -Problems Re- clear Power Debate in West Germany after portedly Plague SovietNuclear Reactor Chernobyl," presented at International En- Plant," Washington Post, November 29, 1983; ergy Seminar, The Johns Hopkins University "USSR: Best Year Yet, But Improvements School of Advanced International Studies, Still Needed," Nuclear News, February 1986. September 18, 1986; Mark Hibbs, "Study of Costs of Closing German Nuclear Plants 70. Lee, "Soviets Begin Recovery from Di- Fuels Debate," Nucleonics Week, September saster's Damage.- 18, 1986. 71, Jasper Becker, "China Abandons Nu- 63. Dickson, "France Weighs Benefits, clear Plans," Journal of Commerce, March 11, Risks." 1986. 64. "EDF Under Fire Over Tariffs,- Euro- 72. John J. Fialka and Roger Cohen, "Nu- pean Energy Report (Financial Times Business clear-Plant Projects in Nations Like Brazil Information), October 17,1986; "Power Falter After Accident," IVall Street Journal, Too Cheap to Meter but Only on the Night June 5,1986;James Bruce, "Brazil Changes Shift," Energy Economist(Financial Times Nuclear Course,- Journal of Commerce, August BusinessInformation), September 1985; 11, 1986; Gregory Kats, "Importing Insol- "CFDT: Supercapadté Nucleaire: Mc ire sa vency; Nuclear Energy: The Investment That

242 Notes (227) Doesn't Work,"Multinational Monitor,May Times Business Information), September 5, 1986. 1986; "Labour Halt on Nuclear Power," 73. Estimates based on Worldwatchanaly- The Guardian(Manchester), September 4, sis of "World List,"Nuclear News,adjusted 1986. and updated with press reports, private com- 81, Peter Jankowitsch, Federal Minister munications, and comparisons with AIF, "In- for Foreign Affairs of Austria, "Statementat ternational Survey," Bethesda. Md., January the First Special Session of the General Con- 1986; IAEA,Stoat and Trends, 1986;Andrew ference of the IAEA,- Vienna, September 24, Holmes, "World Status: Nuclear Power,-En- 1986. ergy Economist(Financial Times Business In- formation), January1986;and Shabad, 82. "Making Safety International,-E ro- "News Notes." pean Energy Report;Moberg, "Country by Country Report." 74. The figures in Table 4-8 are for firmly scheduled plants listed in "World List,"Nu- 83, Nuclear Control Institute, -Report of clear News.They include almost all the West- the International Task Force on Prevention ern and Third World plants planned by of Nuclear Terrorism," Washington, D.C., 1995, and probably arc overestimates for 1986. some countries. However, Soviet and East 84. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology European planners plan far more plants in Assessmmt,Managing the Nation's Commercial 1991-95 than are included in the table. High-LcvelRadioactiveWaste(Washington, 75. "Statement by Head of USSR Delega- D.C.:U.S. GovernmentPritgingOffice, tion to Special Session of IAEA." 1985). 76. "Nuclear Power Controversy Balloons 85. Bernard L. Cohen, "Exaggerating the inW est Germany ," Journal of Commmerce,Sep- Risks," in Michio Kaku and Jennifer Trainer, tember 22, 1986; David Fairhall, "No Retreat eds.,Nuclear Power: Both Sides(New York: from Nuclear Age. says Walker,-The Guard- W.W. Norton & Co., 1982); Centre for Sci- (Manchester), June 27, 1986. ence and Environment,The State of India's En- vironment 1984-1985 77. Blix quoted in Bill Rankin, -Hashing (New Delhi: 1985); Jon- athan Kandell, "Mexico City's Growth, Once Over the Political Fallout from Chernobyl,- Fostered, Turns into Economic Burden," Energy Daily,October 9, 1986. Wall Street Journal,October 4, 1985. 78. David Fishlock, "Chernobyl's First 86. See, for example, Joshua Gordon, Victim is Zwentendorf,"Energy Daily,June "1984-1985 Nuclear Power Safety Repart,- 12,1986; William Branigin, -Chernobyl Critical Mass Energy Project, Washington, Prompts Philippines to Reassess Reactor," D.C., 1986; U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Com- Washington Post,May 16, 1986; Costis Stam- mission, -List of Significant Operational bobs. "Greek Utility Announces Major Wind Events and Regulatory Problems," report to Energy Program,"Solar Energy Intelligence Re- Representative Edward J. Markey, Chairman, port,September 16, 1986. U.S. House of Representatives, Committee 79. Tony Catterall, "No Nukes, Says Bonn on Energy and Commerce, Sub-Committee Party,"Energy Daily,August 18, 1986; "Kohl on Energy Conservation and Power, Wash- Fails to Calm Reaction to Chernobyl.-Nu- !ngton, D.C., May 4, 1986. clear News,July 1986. 87. See, for instance, William Cannell, 80. -End for Italian Nuclear?"European "Chernobyl, Challenger and the Numbers Energy Report;"Swiss Launch Anti-Nuclear ,"Energy Economist(Financial Times Initiative,"European Energy Report(Financial BusinessInformation), September1986;

243 (228) Notes Charles Perow, Normal Accidents: Living with lion people, do not have electricity. In other High-Risk Technology (New York: Basic Books, developing countries an average of 75 per- 1984); Jim MacKenzie, "Finessing the Risks cent of the 1.7 billion rural people do not of Nuclear Power,- Technology Review, Feb- have power. Even in "electrified" villages, ruary/March 1984. many homes lack power. 88. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2. World Bank, "1982 Power/Energy Data "Reactor Safety Study: An Assessmem of Ac- Sheets"; Edison Electric Institute, "Electric cident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Output," Washington, D.C., April 30, 1986. Power Plants," WASH-1400 (Washington, 3. World Bank, "1982 Power/Energy Data D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice, Sheets." 1975). 4. World Bank, The Energy Transition in De- 89. S. Islam and K. Lindgren, "How Many veloping Countries (Washington, D.C.: 1983). Reactor Accidents Will There Be?" Nature, August 21, 1986. 5. World Energy Conference, Survey of En- ergy Resources, 1980 (Munich: 1980). 90. "Soviet Union Showed the World How to Evacuate," New Scientist, September 6. Figures compiled by Worldwatch Insti- 4, 1986; Stuart Diamond, -Chernobyl Caus- tutefromvarioussources;Christopher ing Big Revisions in Global Nuclear Power Flavin and Cynthia Pollock, "Harnessing Re- Policies," New York Times, September 27, newable Energy," in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World-1985 (New York: W.W. Nor- 1986. ton & Co., 1985). 91. Sandia National Laboratory,"Esti- mates of tne Financial Consequences of Nu- 7. World Bank, China: The Energy Sector. clear Power Reactor Accidents," prepared 8. Patricia Adams and Lawrence Solomon, for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, In the Name of Progress: The Underside of Foreign Washington, D.C., 1982. Aid (Toronto: Energy Probe Research Foun- dation, 1985); Ken Lieherthal, "Energy Deci- 92. Klaus Michael Meyer-Abich and Ber- sion-Making in China,- lecture at The Johns tram Schefold, Die Grenzen der Atomwirtschaft Hopkins School of Advanced International (Munich, West Germany: Verlag C.H. Beck, Studies,Washington,D.C.,February5, 1986). 1986. 93. Ronald Klueh, -Future Nuclear Reac- 9. World Bank, E ergy Transition in Develop- tors-Safety First?- New Scientist,April 3, ing Countries; World Bank, China: The Energy 1986; Richard K. Lester, "Rethinking Nu- Sector. clear Power,- Scientific American, March 1986. 10. World Bank, China: The Energy Sector; Massachusetts Division of Air Quality Con- Chapter 5. Electrifying the Third World trol, -Acid Rain and Related Air Pollution Damage: A National and International Call 1. Per capita estimates based on figures in for Action," unpublished, Boston, Mass, Au- World Bank, -1982 Power/Energy Data gust 1984. Sheetsfor104Developing Countries,- Washington, D.C., July 1985, and in World 11. "World List of Nuclear Power Plants," Bank, China: The Energy Sector (Washington, Nuclear News, August 1986. D.C.; 1985); 1.7 billion figure is Worldwatch 12. Hugh Collier, Developing Electric Power: Institute estimate based on figures in several Thirty Years of World Bank Experience (Balti- regional and country studies. In China, half more, Md.: The Johns Hopkins University the rural households, representing 400 mil- Press, 1984).

24i.; Notes (229) 3. A. Heron, "Financing Electric Power 22. Howard S. Geller, "End-Use Electric- in Developing Countries," IAEA Bulletin, ity Conservation: Options for Developing Winter 1985; Edward S. Cassedy and Peter Countries,- American Council for an Ener. M. Meier, "Planning for Electric Power in gy-Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C., DevelopingCountriesintheFaceof March 1986. Change" (draft), in Planning For Changing En- ergy Conditions (New Brunswick, N.J.: Trans- 23. Howard S. Geller et al., -Electricity action Inc., forthcoming). Conservation Potential in Brazil," American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 14. Worldwatch Institute estimates, based Washington, D.C., March 1986. Additional on figures available for selected countries; electricity supplies in developing countries National Rural Electric Cooperative Associa- cost on average about $2,000 per kilowatt, tion (NRECA), "Central America Rural Elec- including about $500 per kilowatt for trification Study," report to U.S. Agency for trans- International Development (AID), unpub- mission and distribution; see Heron, -Fi- lished, Washington, D,C, 1985. nancing Electric Power. 15. Heron, "Financing Electric Power"; 24. Mohan Munasinghe and Jeremy J. World Bank, Energy Transition in Developing Warford, Electricity Pricing: Theory and Case Countries. Studies (Baltimore, Md.: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1982). 16. Robert Ichord, AID, presentation at meeting of Society for International Devel- 25. Geller, -End-UseElectricity Conser- opment, Washington, D.C., September 12, vation." 1985; "Power Shortage a Priority," China 26. Ibid. Daily, April 29, 1986. 27. Ibid. 17. World Bank. "Latin America and Caribbean Region Power Sector Finances," 28. The 10-15 percent figure is basedon unpublished, Washington, D.C., April 22, data from Brazil, developed by Howard S. 1985. Geller, American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C., pri- 18. Mohan Munasinghe, World Bank, pri- vate communication, May 2, 1986. vate communication. May 19, 1986; NRECA, "CentralAmericaRuralElectrification 29. Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Study." 1985 Energy Management and Consemation Ac- tivities (San Francisco: 1984). 19. Robert J.Saunders and Karl e- choutek, "The Electric Power Sector in De- 30. Geller, private communication. veloping Countries,- Energy Policy, August 31. Douglas V. Smith et al., "Report of the 1986; Fox Butterfield, "Filipinos Say Marcos Regional Rural Electrification Survey to the Was Given Millions for '76 Nuclear Con- Asian Development Bank- (draft), Manila, tract," New York Timec, March 7, 1986. Philippines, October 1983. 20. Howard S. Geller. "Progress in the 32. World Bank, "1982 Power/Energy Energy Efficiency of Residential Appliances Data Sheets"; Randy Girer, "Rural Electrifi- and Space Conditioning Equipment," in En- cation in Costa Rica: Membership Participa- ergy Sources: Conservation and Renewahles (New York: American Institute of Physics, 1985). tion and Distribution of Benefits," Masters Thesis, Graduate Program in Energy, Man- 21, Ibid.; Arnory Lovins, "Saving Giga- agement and Policy, University of Pennsysl- bucks with Negawatts," Public Utilities Fort- vania, 1986; World Bank, "Electricity Use in nightly, March 21, 1985. India: Third World RuralElectrification 245 (23 0) Notes Project," Staff Appraisal Report, Washing- 45. Allen R. Inversin, "Pakistan: Villager- ton, D,C, May 7, 1986. Implemented Micro-Hydropower Schemes," NRECA, Washington, D.C, 1983; Smith et 33. World Bank, China: The Energy Sector; al.,"Report tothe Asian Development Smith et al., "Report to the Asian Develop- Bank"; AID, Decentralized Hydropower. ment Bank." 46. NRECA, "Nepal: Private-Sector Ap- 34. AID, Rural Electnfication: Linkages and proach to Implementing Micro-Hydropower Justifications (Washington, D.C.: 1979). Schemes: A Case Study," Washington, D.C., 35. Douglas F. Barnes, "Electricity's Effect 1982. on Rural Life in Developing Nations,- paper 47. "Small Power Units Rise," China Daily, prepared for the United Nations University April 2, 1986; World Bank, China: The Energy and the International Development Research Sector; Robert P. Taylor, Decentralized Renew- Center, Ottawa, September 1984. able Energy Development in China (Washington, 36. Douglas F. Barnes, Electric Power for D.C.: World Bank, 1982); Eugene Chang, Rural Growth: How Electricity Affects Rural Life, in -Little Plants Give Lots of Power," China Developing Countries (Boulder, Colo.: West- Daily, December 14, 1985; He Quan, "Nation view Press, 1986); Girer, -Rural Electrifica- Tags 100 Counties for Mini-Hydro Experi- tion in Costa Rica." ment," China Daily, April 16, 1986. 37. Barnes, "Electricity's Effect on Rural 48. Alan S. Miller et al., Growing Power: Bio- Li fe. energy for Development and Industry (Washing- ton, D.C.: World Resources Institute, 1986); 38. Barnes, Electric Power for Rural Growth. Abubakar Lubis et al., "Solar Villages in In- 39. Girer, 'Rural Electrification in Costa donesia," SuniVorld, Vol. 9, No. 2, 1985; Phil- Rica";AID,Bolivia:RuralElectnfication ippines Ministry of Energy, 1984 Annual Re- (Washington, D.C.: 1980); Barnes, Electric port (Manila: 1984). Power for Rural Growth. 49. Frank H. Denton, Wood for Energy and 40. Cited in Smith et al., -Report to the Rural Development: The Philippines Experience Asian Development Bank." (Manila: Frank H. Denton, 1983). 41. AID, The Product is Progress: Rural Elec- 50. Recent appraisals based on author's trification in Costa Rica (Washington, D.C.: discussion with Filipino and AID officials in 1981). Manila, November 1985. 42. Author's observations based on travel 51. Xu Yuanchao, "Remote Areas Switch in northern Luzon Province, Philippines, on to Windmills," China Daily, February 27, with the National Electrification Administra- 1986. tion,November1985;SamuelBunker, 52. Robert Lynette, "Wind Turbine Per- NRECA, Washington, D.C., private com:-..u- formance: An Industry Overview," Alternative ni-ation, January 24, 1986. Sources of Energy, September/October 1985. 43. "Remote Power Market is Predicted to 53. Donald Marier,-Developmentsin Swell,- Renewable Energy News, July 1985; Wind Projects Overseas,"Alternative Sources of Smith et al., "Report to the Asian Develop- Energy, November/December 1985. ment Bank.- 54. Christopher Flavin, Electricity from Sun- 44. AID, Decentralized Hydropower in AID's light: The Emergence of Photovoltaics ((,olden, Development Assistance Program (Washingwn, Colo.:Solar Energy ResearchInstitute. D.C.: 1986). 1985).

2 6 Notes (231) 55. P, Joinde, ',Iar Electrification of the Container Recycling," ConsaIioml & Recy- French Polynnian Islanc=is," G.I.E. Soler, un- cling, Vol. 6, No. 1/2, 1983. published, 1085, 6. National Soft Drink Association 56. Philinkes Ministry of Energy, 1984 (NSDA), -The Soft Drink Industry of the Annual Report UnitedStates:StatisticalProfile1982," 57. Ichord, at Socicy for International Washington, D.C., 1983. Development, 7. Ibid.; Stephen Christophc, financial an- 58. Christopher Flan-Rio, "Reforming the alyst, NSDA, private communication, Sep- Electric Povimlndustry,- in Lester R. Brown tember 1986. et al., State of the Warl..r1-1986 (New York: 8. Reynolds Metals Company, -Alumi- W.W. Nortaa Co., -86). num's Centennial: Reynolds Role," 1985 An- 59. MichaelFarmer, ALT Asiatic Corpo. nual Report, Richmond, Va., February 1986; ration, New York, privite communication, Aluminum Association, Inc., Aluminum Statis- January 9.1980: "Chin Power Sector De- tical Review for 1985 (Washington, D.C.: centralized," aim Daily. June 6, 1985. 1986). 9. Christophe,privatecommunication; Chapter 6. Realizing 1==tecyding's Poten- -Current Business Statistics,- Suniey of Cur- tial rent Business, August 1986; Jonathan Puth, "Take Back That Trash," Environmental Ac- 1. Environmental Dcfnse Fund (EDF). To tion, July/August 1985. Burn or Not tohm: The E..ronomic Advantages of Recycling Ova Garbage Inr-ineration in New York 10. Community Environmental Council, City (New York:1985). Solid Waste Managment Plan City of Berkeley 2. David Morris, -A National Resource (Santa Barbara, Calif.: 1986); Kenneth R. RecoveryPolicy Emerg Building Eco- Sheets, "The New High-Tech World of Plas- nomic Alternalitu (Co-op America, Washing- tics," U.S. News & World Report, February 24, ton, b.C.), Spring 1985. 1986. 3. Robert Cowles Let her and Mary T. 11. "Market Update,- Resource Recycling. Sheil. "SourteSeparatiot-i and Citizen Recy- July/August 1985. cling," in William D. Robnson, ed., The Solid 12. "Mounting Garbage Threatens Cit- Waste Handbool (New Yc=srk: John Wiley & ies," Beijing Review, February 18, 1985; Rich- Sons, 1986). ard J. Meislen, "Mexico City Gets Too Big a 4. "Wastelloduction," R E: SO U RCES (En- Million Times a Year," New York Times, Sep- vironmental Talk Force, lirWashington, D.C.), tember 8, 1985. Summer 1986; "Cost o Packaging Food 13. Martin V. Melosi, Garbage in the Cities: Could Exceeahrm Net," Journal of Commerce. Refuse,Reform, and the Environment, 1880- August 12, 1086. 1980 (College Station: Texas A & M Univer- 5, Evelin Flajek, "The lownportance of Pack- sity Press, 1981). aging in Hounhold Wast,- in A. Bridgewa- 14. Ibid. ter and K.Lidgren, Howehold Waste Management inEurope; Econ-csmics and Techniques 15. "City Expands Landfill Moratorium; (New York: Van Nostramld Reinhold Co., Sets New Task Force," The Neighborhood Works 1981); L.L. Gaines and M. Wolsky, "Re- (Chicago), March 1985; David Morris and sourceConservation TThrough Beverage Neil Seidman, -New Ways to Keep a Lid on

247 (232) Notes

America's Garbage Problem,";VailStreet April 18, 1986; Richard E. Hoffman et al., journal, April 15, 1986. "Health Effects of Long-Tel in Exposure to 16. Morris and Seldman, "New Ways"; 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p7Dioxin,"jour- Neal Peirce, "Garbage-to-Energy Plants a nal of the American Medical Association,April 18, 1986; proposed U.S. Environmental Protec- Golden Opportunity,"Journal of Commerce, tion Agency rule,Federal Register,December February6,1985; WilliamK.Stevens, "Philadelphia Trash: Too Much and No- 19, 1985. where to Go,"New York Times,March 9, 1986; 23. Maurice D. Hinchey, -Resource Re- costs of shipping from David Morris, "The covery and Solid Waste Management in Nor- Cost of Burning Garbage,"Alternative Sources way, Sweden, Denmark and Germany: Les- of Energy,April 1986. sonsfor New York," New York State 17. Maurice D. Hinchey, "Elements of a Legislative Commission on Solid Waste Man- Materials Policy for New York State," pre- agement, Albany, N.Y., December 1985; Hershkowitz,Garbage Burning Lessons. sented to the Conference on Materials Recy- cling and Composting, Albany, N.Y, Octo- 24. Walter Liong-Ting Hang and Steven ber 9, 1985. A. Romalewski,The Burning Question: Garbage 18. United States Conference of Mayors, Incineration Versus Total Recycling in New York City(New York: New York Public Interest Re- -Resource Recovery Activities,"City Currents (Washington, D.C.), April 1986. search Center, 1986); J.E. Heft and K.M. Myles,Energy from Municipal WasteAssessment 19. For a discussion of the Public Utility of Control Technologies for Stack Gas Emissions Regulatory Policies Act, see Christopher (Argonne, Ill.: Argonne National Laboratory, Flavin, "Reforming the Electric Power Indus- 1983). try," in Lester R. Brown et al.,State of the 25. EDF,To Burn or Not toBurn. World-1986(New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1986). 26. Ibid.; Hang and Romalewski,The Burn 20. John Reilly, "Garbage Has Promise as ing Question a Power Source,"USA Today,1,ay 22, 1984; 27. Morris, "Cost of Burning Garbage"; Donald Marier, -Waste-To-Energy Project Asalie Larrson, Office of Science and Tech- Updates,-Alternative Sources of Energy,April nology, Swedish Embassy, private communi- 1986; EDF,To Burn or Not to Burn, cation, July 29, 1986; Hershkowitz,Garbage 21. Colin Leinster, "The Sweet Smell of Burning Lessons. Profits from Trash,"Fortune,April 1, 1985; 28. Hershkowitz,Garbage Burning Lessons; Allen Hershkowitz,Garbage Burning Lessons Hinchey, -Lessons for New York-; Martha from Europe: Consensus and Controversy in Four Gildart,California WasteManagement European States(New York: Inform, 1986); Board, private communication, November 6, Plastic Waste Management Institute (PWMI), 1986. Pla.stic Waste; Resource Recovery and Recycling in 29. James S. Kennedy, "Energy and the Japan(Tokyo:1985); Matthew L. Wald, Primary Aluminum Industry,- International "Converting Waste to Energy,"New York Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Times,April 18, 1985. Commerce, Washington, D.C., January 1985; 22. Christoffer Rappe et al., eds.,Chlori- William U. Chandler,Materials Recycling: The nated Dioxins and Dibenwfurans in Perspective Virtueof Necessity,Worldwatch Paper 56 (Chelsea,Mich.:LewisPublishers,Inc., (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 1986); Susan Okie, "Dioxin May Weaken October 198:; Letcher and Shell, "Source Ability to Fight Disease,-Washington Post, Separation and Citizen Recycling.- 248 Notes (2 =3 3 ) 30. Organisation for Economic Co-opera- de's Wesi Coast Workshop," Resource It 7ecy- tion and Development (OECD), Household cling, March/April 1985. Waste: Separate Collection and Recycling (Paris: 1983). 38. 'County Profits From Recycling," Re- sourceRecythug, July/August1983;L--z-nis 31. Mill costs from Shigeo Egusa, "A Sec- Burns, refuse collection division, Montgc=.m- ond Life for Wastepaper ," f ournal of Japanese ery County, Md., private communicatin, Trade & Industry, No. 6, 1985; reclaimed mills Ocatosh:e1r927,:.86; OECD, Waste Paper Ilecorery from Richard Hertzberg, "Searching for Common Ground: The Third National Recy- cling Congress," Resource Recycling, Novem- 30. PW1111, Plastic Wastein Japan. ber/December 1984; "National Science Test 40. Michael .). Ducey, "Waste-to-Encr-z-gy II," NOVA Series, WGBH-Boston, broadcast Incinerationylants May Cut Future Wastea- on May 6, 1986. per Supplia,"Pulp & Paper, March 1985 32. "Waste Paper Recovery," Resource Re- 41, Milgrim quoted in Charles PapMe, cycling, May/June 1985; Mal Tariff, "India "Plastics Raiding As a Business," ResoiL-zrce Paper and Paperboard Industry," Resource Recycling, September/October 1986, Recycling, March/April 1986; "Around the 42, PWMI,Plastic Was e inJapan; Arommend World," Resource Recycling, July/August 1985; the World," Resource Recycling, Novernbe-,:-r/ Chris Dupin, "The Wastepaper Boom: US December 1985. Ports Love the Business,"Journal of Commerce, 43. "Portland Metropolitan Area SoLlid March 28, 1986, Waste Reduction Program," Metropolitn 33. Aluminum Association, Statistical Re- Service District, Portland, Ore., April Z-T 2, view for 1985; European Glass Container 1986, Federation (Brussels), The Glass Gazette,Is- 44. The states are Connecticut, Delaware, sues 1-12; U.N. Food and Agriculture Orga- Iowa, Mainaassachusetts, Michigan, N-=-1,v nization, Waste Paper Data, 1982-84 (Rome: York, Oregon, and Vermont; Karen Die 1985); historical recovery rates in Chandler, mueller, "Buried in Garbage," Insight, Jona_v_i- Materials Recycling, ary 27, 1986, 34, OECD, HouseholdWaste;Chandler, 45. Jonathan Puth, recycling analyst, pri- Materials Recycling. vale communication, August 12, 1986; "Cor-n- 35, Judy Roumpf, "The Plight of Plastics tainerDeposit News,"Resource Recyclin, Recycling,- Resource Recycling, November/ July/August 1983; Nth, "Take Back Tht December 1984; Sigrid Huston, -PET Plas- tics Recycling: Ryder Conference '85," Re- 1. Dowicad and K. Lidgren, eds.,Pro- source Recycling, May/June 1985; PWMI, Plas- lems in Packaging:The Environmental Issue (Ne.4., tic Waste in Japan; "State Watch," Resource York: John Wiley & Sons, 1984);"Around Recycling, May/June 1985. the World," Rsource Recycling, January/Feb*2.- ruary 1985; "Deposit Law News," Resour=e 36. "Interview with Neil Seldman: New Vi- Recycling,January/February sions of Waste Disposal," RE:SOURCES (En- 1985;Torc=e Planke,'Recycling: A Challenge, Not vironmental Task Force, Washington, D.C.), Threat," Beverage World, June 1985; DereM Summer 1986; Tony Abatanti, Fiber Market Stephenson, 'Ontario Unveils New SofT't News, private communication, November 3, Drink Container Law," Resource Recycling 1986. September/October 1985, 37. Chuck Papke, "Recycling Municipal 47. Stephenson, -Ontario Unveils Nevq.../ Refuse, Sludge and Industrial Waste: Biocy- Soft Drink Container Law."

249 (234) Notes 48. Steve Rypins and Charles Papkc, "Re. tion, June 13, 1986; Oregon Senate Bill 405, verse Vending Machine Update,- Resource Re- 02nd Oregon Legislative Assembly. cycling, January/February 1986. 58, Hertzberg,"PerspectiveonRecy. 49, "Reverse Vending Machines for Bev- ding"; New Jersey Departments of Energy erage Containers Installed," Beverage World and Environmental Protection, "Statewide International, October/November 1985; Survey of Recycling Programs," Newark, Tomra Systems, informational brochures, N.J., May 1985. Asker, Norway, 1986; Rypins and Papke, 59, New Jersey,"StatewideSurvey"; "Reverse Vending Machine Update. Dawn Schauer, "Innovative Methods Move 50. Guenther Lubisch, "All Glass Bottles Recyclables to Market,- Biocycle (Emmaus, Are Returnable," Glass Gazette (Brussels), No- Pa.), May/June 1986, vember 1984; "Around the World,- Resource 60. Papke, -Recycling Municipal Refuse; Recycling, November/December 1984; Wolf- Derek Stephenson, "Recycling in Canada: gang Helm and Gerd Rocks, German waste Commitment to Recycling," Resource Recy- analysts, private communications, May 22, cling, January/February 1986. 1986; "The 1985 Results,- Glass Gazette, Oc- tober 1986; "Around the World," Resource 61, Richard Keller, "Purchases of Recy- Recycling, May/June 1986. cled Paper: An Important Tool for Market Development," Resource Recycling, July/Au- 51. OECD, -The Recycling of Beverage gust 1983, Containers in Switzerland,- in The State of the Environment (Paris: 1985); OECD, Household 62. Ibid.; Clifford Case and Richard Kel- Waste, ler, "Buying Recycled Paper: Thc Story Con- tinues," Resource Recycling, July/August 1985. 52, Aluminum Association, Statistical Re- view for 1985; "Reynolds Aluminum Will 63, "Recycling Equipment Tax Credits/ Close Its New Jersey Recycling Centers," Waivers,"ResourceRecycling,July/August New York Times, May 20, 1984; Community 1986, Environmental Council, Solid Waste Manage- 64. Neil Seidman and Jon Huls, Waste to ment Plan of Berkeley. Wealth: A Business Guide for Community Recycling 53. Sandra Johnson Cointreau et al., Recy- Enterprises (Washington, D.C.: Institute for clingfrom Municipal Refuse: A State-of-the-Art Re- Local Self Reliance, 1985); Community Envi- view and Annotated Bibliography (Washington, ronmental Council, Solid Waste Management D.C.; World Bank, 1984). Plan of Berkeley; "Will Today's Soft Drink Bot- tle Become Tomorrow's Carpet," Waste Age, 54. Ibid. March 1986. 55. Ibid.; "Around the Country,- Resource 65. Bureau of !' (msus, Statistical Ab. Recycling, January/February 1986, sfract of the United 1986 (Washington, 56, Joyce Purnick, -Testing a Plan for Re- D.C.; U.S. Department of Commerce, 1985); cycling of City Trash," New York Times, July Peter M. Emerson et al., "Wasting the Na- 16, 1985; -Community Recycling Update,- tional Forests: Selling Federal Timber Below Resource Recycling, January/February 1985; Cost," The Society, Washington, Richard Hertzberg, "Perspective on Recy- D.C., September 1984, cling: New Jersey Steps Out Again,- Resource 66. H. Richard Heede et al, "The Hidden Recycling, January/February 1985. Costs of Energy," Center for Renewable Re- 57, Lorie Parker, Waste Reduction Man- sources (now called Fund for Renewable En. ager, Oregon Department of Environmental ergy and the Environment), Washington Quality, Portland, Ore, private communica- D.C., October 1985; Sandra Poste!, Conserving NT-toles (235 ) Water: The Untapped Alternative, Worldwatch Min millinthe United States(Washington, Paper 67 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1986), stitute, September 1985); Letcher and Sheil, "Source Separation and Citizen Recycling." 67. Letcher and Sheil, "Source Separation Chapter 7, Sustaining World Agricul- and Citizen Recycling." ture 68. See various chapters in Boustead and 1. Data on per capita and total grain pro- Lidgren, Problems in Packaging. duction in Africa and Latin America from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 69. Papke,"PlasticsRecycling";Sheil Economic Research Service (ERS), World In- quoted in Hertzberg, "Perspective on Recy- dicesofAg-riculturalandFoodProduction cling"; Roumpf, -The Plight of Plastics Recy- 1950-85 (unpublished printout) (Washing- cling." ton, D.C.: 1986); figures for 1986 derived 70. Diegmueller, "Buried in Garbagc-; from USDA, ERS, World Agriculture: Outlook Jerry Powell, "Plastic Beverage Cans: What's and Situation Report, Washington, D.C, June Ahead?"ResourceRecycling, November/ 1986. December 1985; Kevin Thompson, "New 2. USDA, ERS, World Indices. Plastic Coke Can Sparks Comroversy," jour- nal of Commerce, February 12, 1986. 3. Ibid. 71. Eleanor Johnson Tracy, "Plastic That 4. Data for 1986 from USDA, ERS, World Won't Clutter the Countryside,- Fortune, Agriculture: Outlook and Situation Report;all September 1, 1986; N.L. Uttley, Market De- other years from USDA, ERS, World Indices, velopmentManager,Marlborough Bi- 5. USDA, ERS, World Indices. opolymers Ltd., Stockton-on-Tees, U.K, pri- vate communication, July 3, 1986. 6. Ibid. 72. "StateWatch,"ResourceRecycling, 7. Soil loss information based on data May/June 1986; "State Watch,- Resource Re- from USDA, The Soil and Water Resources Con- cycling, May/June 1985; Puth, "Take Back servation Act; 1980 Appraisal, Part II (Washing- That Trash"; Puth, private communication; ton, D.C.: 1980), and wind erosion data from Planke, "Recycling; A Challenge, Not a USDA, Soil Conservation Service, and Iowa Threar; Boustead and Lidgren, Problems in State University Statistical Laboratory, Basic Packaging. Statistics: 1977 National Resources Inventory, 73. Nancy Statistical Bulletin No. 686 (Washington, VandenBerg, "Recycled D.C.: 1982). Materials Procurement Part 1," Resource Recy- cling, September/October 1986. 8. For more information on the Food Se- 74. Ibid.; Nancy VandenBerg, Council on curity Act of 1985, see R. Neil Sampson, "A the Environment, New York City, private Landmark for Soil Conservation," American Land Forum Magazine, Spring 1986; Tim T. communication, October 31, 1986. Phipps, "The Farm Bill, Resources and Envi- 75. VandenBerg,"Recydf:dMaterials ronmental Quality," Resources, Winter 1986. Procurement." 9. USDA, ERS, World Indices. 76. -New Jersey Senate Approves Manda- tory Recycling," Resource Recycling, Septem- 10. Population data and projections from ber/October 1986. Population Reference Bureau, 1986 World Population Data Sheet(Washington, D.C.: 77. Donald F. Barrett and Robert W. 1986); world per capita grain area from Crandall, Up From the Ashes: The Rise of the Steel USDA, ERS, World Indices.

251 (23 6) Notes 1 1. Data for 1950-80 from W.R. Range- Begins to Shift From Farmland to Cities," ley, "Irrigation and Drainage in the World," Christian Science Monitor, August 26,1985, paper presented at the International Confer- and from "Mystery Farmland Buyer Turns ence on Food and Water, Texas A&M Uni- Out to be Thirsty Denver Suburb," U.S. versity, College Station, May 26-30, 1986; Water News, June 1986; Fraser, "Water Crisis irrigated areafrom 1980to present is World- Threatens China'sFuture";Celestine watch Institute estimate based on ibid. Bohlen, "New Economics Shrinks Soviet Irri- 12. Peter Beaumont, "Irrigated Agricul- gation Plans," Washington Post,March 5, ture and Ground-water Mining on the High 1986; Mike Nicol, "South Africa Reaching Plains of Texas, USA," Environmental Conser- Limit of Resources," World Environment Re- vation, Summer 1985. port, June 12, 1985. 11 Australia's irrigated area from Range- 20. PhillipMichlin,Western Michigan ley, "Irrigation and Drainage." University, Kalamazoo, Mich., private com- munication, December 15,1986. 14. U.S. irrigated area from USDA, Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey-1984 (Washing- 21. For Soviet irrigation reducing electric- ton, D.C.: 1986), and from John Hostetler, ity generation by 30-40 percent, sec Thane Agricultural Economist, USDA, ERS, private Gustafson, "Transforming Soviet Agricul- communication, May 29, 1986. Lure: Brezhnev's Gamble on Land Improve- ment," Public Policy, Summer 1977. 15. Club du Sahel quote from Asit K. Bis- was, -Evaluating Irrigation's Impact: Guide- 22. Norman K. Whittlesey et al, Energy lines for Project Monitoring,- Ceres,uly/Au- Tradeoffs and Economic Feasibility of Irrigation De- gust 1985. velopment in the Pacific Northwest, Bulletin896, College of Agriculture Research Center, 16. Gordon Sloggett and Clifford Dicka- WashingtonStateUniversity,Pullman, son, Ground-Water Mining in the United States Wash., 1981; see also Gordon Sloggett, En- (Washington, D.C.: USD,.A, 1986); for addi- ergy and U.S. Agriculture: Irrigation Pumping, fional discussion of groundwater depletion 1974-83 (Washington, D.C.: USDA, 1985). in Texas high plains see Beaumont, "Irri. gated Agriculture on the High Plains of 23. World fertilizer use from United Na- Texas." tions Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FertilizerYearbooks (Rome: various 17. For aquifer depletion in China, see years); world grain area and grain production David Fraser, "Water Crisis Threatens to Dry from USDA, ERS, World Indices. Up China's Future,- New Straits Times, May 8, 1986; for Tamil Nadu, see Sandra Postel, 24. FAO, Fertilizer Yearbooks. "Managing Freshwater Supplies," in Lester 25. U.S. fertilizer use from USDA, Statisti- R. Brown et al., State of the World-1985 (New cal Reporting Service, Commercial Fertilizers York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1985); for Ari- (Washington, D.C.: 1985); 1986 figure is a zona, see Sloggett and Dickason, Ground- Worldwatch Institute estimate based on in- IVater Mining. formation from Paul Andrilenas, USDA, 18. Hall quoted in Janet RalolT, "Surviving Washington, D.C., private communication, Salt," Science News, November 17, 1984. August 1986. 19. Information on competing uses of 26. Fertilizer use in China from Anthony water in the Sun Belt states from Ewan M. Tang and Bruce Stone, Food Production in MacAskill, "Colorado Cities Thirsting for the People's Republic of China (Washington, Wilderness Water," Washington Post, October D.C.: International Food Policy Research In- 15, 1986, from Marshall Ingwerson, "Use stitute, May1980),and from Bruce Stone,

2 5 2 Notes (237) "Chinese Fertilizer Application in the 1980s 1984); Government of India, Departments of and 1990s: Issues of Growth, Balance, Allo- State and Agriculture, Economic Surveys (New cation, Efficiency, and Response," in U.S. Delhi: various years); Rip Landes, USDA, Congress,JointEconomicCommittee, Foreign Agriculture Service, Washington, China's Economy in the Eighties (Washington, D.C, private communication, October 4, D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice, 1986; pump irrigation data for China from forthcoming). Frances Tuan, USDA, Foreign Agriculture 27. Stone, -Chinese Fertilizer Applica- Service, Washington, D.C., private commu- nication, October 2, 1986.

28. ElliotBerg,"FertilizerSubsidies" 32. USDA, Agricultural Sta (draft), World Bank, Washington, D.C., De- 33. Ibid. cember 1985. 34. Average grain yield per hectare in 29, Ibid. 1986 based on USDA, Foreign Agricultural 30. Unless otherwise indicated, data on en- Service, Foreign Agriculture CircularGrains, FG 6-86, June 1986. ergy use(oilequivalent)inagriculture throughout this chapter arc Worldwatch In- 35. USDA, ERS, World Indices. stitute estimates based on the amount of oil 36. USDA, ERS,China:Situation and Out embodiedinthe manufacture and mainte- look Report (Washington, D.C.: 1986). nance of farm machinery and inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, and the amountof 37. Per capita grain production in Africa energy needed to run tractors and irrigation from USDA, ERS, World Indices; Edward V.K. pumps. Since no global data exist for pesti- Jaycox, -Africa: Development Challenges cide use, their use and that of all othernon- and the World Bank's Response,- lecture listed uses were assumed to be 20 percentof delivered at Woodrow Wilson International the total energy for all listed categories. En- Center for Scholars, The Smithsonian Insti- ergy used in the manufacture of fertilizer and tution, Washington, D.C., August 6,1985. fabrication of farm machinery based on David 38. Carryover stocks in 1976 derived from Pimentel, Handbook of Energy Utilization in Agri- USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Foreign culture (Boca Raton, Fla.: CRC Press,1980): Agriculture Circular: Grains, Washington, D.C., energy consumed by tractors based on USDA, various issues. Agricultural Statistics (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, various years); 39. Shlomo Reutlinger, -Food Security energy for irrigation pumping based on Slog- and Poverty in LDCs,- Finance and Develop- ment, December1985. gen, Energy and U.S. Ag-riculture:Irrigation Pumping, 1974-83; total world fertilizer con- 40. Ibid. sumption and tractor fleet from FAO, Produc- 41. Ibid. tion Yearbooks (Rome: various years); world irrigated area from Rangeley, -Irrigation and 42. USDA, ERS, World Indices. Drainage" and from W.R. Rangeley, "Irriga- 43. John Kifner, "The Egyptian Economy tionCurrent Trends and A Future Perspec- Has No Place To Turn," New York Times, July tive," World Bank Seminar, February1983. 6, 1986.

31. Growth of pump 44. USDA, ERS,WorldIndices. from World Bank, India Division, Situation and Prospects of the Indian EconomyA Medium 45. Ibid. Term Perspective(Washington, D.C.: April 46. Ibid.

253 (238) No 47. Sampson, "A Landmark for Soil Con- USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Foreign servation"; Phipps, -The Farm Bill, Re- Agriculture Circular Grains, FG-9-86, Wash- sources and Environmental Quality." ington, D.C., August 1986. 48. Sloggett and Dickason, Ground-ater 4. USDA, ERS, World Indices. Mining. 5. World Bank, China: Agriculture to the Year 49. Reductions in the number of tons of 2000 (Washington, D,C.: 1985). grain produced in states where groundwater 6. Ibid.; Bruce Stone, "Chinese Fertilizer mining may force the conversion of irrigated Application in the 1980s and 1990s: Issues of to dryland farming is a Worldwatch institute Growth, Balance, Allocation, Efficiency, and estimate based on Sloggett and Dickason, Response," in U.S. Congress, joint Eco- Ground-Water Mining in the United States, and nomic Committee, China 'sEconomy inthe on both irrigated and dryland yield data for Eighties (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government several crops in 11 affected states from Pi- Printing Office, forthcoming). men tel, Handbook of Energy Utilization in Agri- culture. 7. Organisation for Economic Co-opera- tion and Development, The State of the Envi- 50. Debora Mackenzie, "Ethiopia: Count- ronment 1985 (Paris: 1985). down to Disaster," New Scientist, November 1, 1984; Haiti's food production data from 8. Rodale quoted in Charles A. hands USDA, ERS, World Indices. and Richard R. Harwood, Enough Food: Achieving Food Security Through Regenerative Ag- riculture(Emmaus, Pa.:Rodale Institute, Chapter 8. Raising Agricultural Produc- 1985). tivity 9. Robert Rodale, "Internal Resources 1. Data on adoption of high-yielding va- and External Inputs The Two Sources of rieties from Dana G. Dalrymple, Development All Production Needs," in Rodale Institute, and Spread of High-Yielding Rice Varieties in De- Regenerative Farming Systems (Ernmaus, Pa.: veloping Countries(Washington, D.C.: U.S. 1985). AgencyforInternationalDevelopment, 10. D.F. Bezdicek etal., "Influence of 1986), and from Dana G. Dalrymple, Develop- Organic Nitrogen on Soil Nitrogen, Nodula- ment and Spread of High-Yielding Wheat Varieties tion, Nitrogen Fixation, and Yield of Soy- in Developing Countries(Washington, D.C.: beans,- Soil Science Society of America Proceed- U.S. Agency for International Development, ings(Madison, Wisc.), March-April 1974; 1986); regional grain area data from U.S. De- D.F. Bezdicek, -Biotechnology and Farming partment of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Systems: On-Farm Applications and Conse- Research Service (ERS), World Indices of Agri- quences," in Institute for Alternative Agri- cultural and Food Production 1950-85 (unpub- culture, Biotechnology and Agriculture: Implica- lished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1986). tions for Sustainability (Greenbelt, Md.: 1986); 2. Population data based on estimates of D.F. Bezdicek, Washington State University, agriculturally active populations from United Pullman, private communication, August 6, Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1986. 1984 Production Yearbook (Rome: 1985). 11. For a review of regenerative practices, 3. Population projections from Popula- see Franci- and Harwood, Enough Food, tion Reference Bureau, 1985 World Population Rodale Tii.Ate, Regenerative Fanning Systems, Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: 1985); grain- and Rodale Institute, Proceedings of Workshop yield projections by Worldwatch Institute, on Resource-Efficient Farming Methods for Tan- based on world grain utilization data from zania (Emmaus, Pa.: Rodale Press, 1983).

254 Note (239) 12. Dana G. Dalrymple, "The Develop- Cent,rs(Washington, D.C.: World Bank, ment and Adoption of High-Yielding Varie- 1985). ties of Wheat and Rice in Developing Coun- 23. Debora MacKenzie, "Ethiopia: Famine tries," AmericanJournalofAgricultural Economics, December 1985. amid Genetic Plenty," New Scientist, August 8, 1985; Jonathan B. Tucker, "Amaranth: The 13. Dalrymple, "High-Yielding Varieties"; Once and Future Crop," BioScience, January Inter-American Development Bank, Economic 1986. and Social Progess in Latin America; 1986 Report 24. Gary Paul Nabhan, Gathering the Desert (Washington, D.C.: 1986). (Tucson: University of Arizona Press, 1985). 14. Consultative Group on International 25. MichaelPhilips, "Rodale Research Agricultural Research (CGIAR), 1984 Annual Center Holds Premier Amaranth Collec- Report (Washington, D.C.: 1985); News from tion." Diversity, Number 9, 1986; William the CGIAR (Washington, D.C.), January/ Liebhardt and Charles S. Kauffman, Rodale April 1986. Research Center, Kutztown, Pa, private 15. Dalrymple, "High-Yielding Varieties"; communications, March 26, 1986; Wes Jack- USDA, ERS, World Indices; Dunstan S.C. son, New Roots for Agriculture (San Francisco: Spencer, "Agricultural Research: Lessons of Friends of the Earth, 1980). the Past, Strategies for the Future," in Rob- 26. Quoted inSterling Wortman and ert J. Berg and Jennifer Seymour Whittaker, Ralph W. Cummings, jr, To Feed This World eds., Strategies for African Development (Berke- (Baltimore, Md.: The Johns Hopkins Univer- ley: University of California Press, 1986). sity Press, 1978). 16. CGIAR, 1984 Annual Report. 27. W.C.Liehhardtetal.,-Research 17. International Development Research Needs for the Development of Resource Effi- Center, The Fragile Web: The International Agri- cient Technologies," in Rodale Institute, Re- culturalResearchSystem (Ottawa:1983); generative Farming Systems. CG1AR, 1984 Annual Report. 28. Peter R. Jennings, "The Amplification 18. Donald L. Plucknett and Nigel J.H. of Agricultural Production," Scientific Ameri- Smith, "Sustaining Agricultural Yields,Bio- can, September 1976. Science, January 1986. 29. Ibid. 19. International Rice Research Institute 30. Gerald G. Marten, -Traditional Agri- (IRRI), I RRI Highlights 1985: Accomplishments culture and Agricultural Research in South- and Challenges (Manila, Philippines: 1986). east Asia," in Gerald G. Marten, ed., Tradi- 20. Ibid.; CGIAR, Summary of International tional Agriculture in Southeast Asia (Boulder, Agriculture Research Centers: A Study of Achieve- Colo.: Westview Press, 1986). ments and Potential (Washington, D.C.: 1985). 31. Traditional acacia-based systems de- 21. International Institute of Tropical Ag- scribed in National Research Council, Board riculture (1ITA), IITA Annual Report and Re- on Science and Technology for International searchHighlights1985(Ibadan.Nigeria: Development, Environmental Change in the West 1986); "Mycorrhizae: Can Africa Benefit?" African Sahel (Washington, D.C.: National International Livestoch Center for Africa Newsletter Academy Press, 1983). (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia), July 1986; IRRI, 32. Ibid. Highlights 1985. 33, Michael McGahuey, Impact of Forestry 22. J.G. Hawkes, Plant Genet c Resources: The Initiatives in the Sahel (Washington, D.C.: Che- Impact of the International Agricultural Research monics, 1986).

255 (240) Notes 34. Sedogolresearh discussed in Chris- Yujiro Hayami and Vernon W. Ruttan, Agri- tian Pieri, "Food Crop Fertilization and Soil culturalDevelopment(Baltimore, Md.: The Fertility: The IRAT Enzperience," in Herbert Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985). W. Ohm andfoicph G. - Nagy, cds,Appropri- 44. Estimane of USDA-supported biotech- ate Teehnologiti far Forn---ners in Semi-Arid West nology research from U.S. General Account- Africa(West layette, Ind.: Purdue Univer- sity Ituernanionl Promrams in Agriculture, ingOffice, Biotechnology: The U.S. Department of AgTiculture '5 Biotechnology Research Efforts 1985). (Washington, D.C.: 1985); Monsanno invest- 35. Shilling cultivat.==ionisdescribed in ment from Frederick Runnel, "Bionechnology D.B. Grigg, TheticullmtralSystems of the World and Alternanive Agriculture: An Overview of (NewYork: Cambridtage Universiny Press, the Major Issues and Concerns," in Institute 1974). for Alternative Agriculture,Biotechnology and 36. Curreciresearcl--7-1 in alley cropping is Agriculture. described inilTA,Annixtexil Report 1985, andin 45. These and other challenges facing the IITA,Alley Oping: 4.7-1Stable Alternative to international research centers are discussed Shifting Cultivalion(lbo=lan. Nigeria: 1984). in Frederick H. Buntel and Randolph Barker, 37. 5pence0Agriet_dtural Research." "Emerging Agricultural Technologies, Pub- lic Policy, and Implications for Third World 38. V.& Congress, C7T)ffice of Technology Agriculnure: The Case of Biotechnology, Assessment (OM),rehnology, Public Policy, American Journal of Agricultural Economics,De- of American Agriculture and the Changinghlnictur cember 1985, and in F.H. Buttel et al., "The (W ashiogiuti, Government Print- IARCs and the Development and Applicanion ing Office, 1916). of Biotechnologies in Developing Coun- 39. For ovcAiews f the environmental tries," in 1RRI,Biotechnology in International implicationsof biotee=hnologies, see Jack Agricultural Research(Manila: 1985). Doyle. "Bionahnology Research and Agri- 46. W.G. Padolina, "Snranegies no Develop culturaltabiliirlsuie.s. inScience and Technol- Biotechnology in the Philippines," in IRRI, ogy.Fall 1985,and Jack Doyle,Altered Harvest (New Yor14: Siding Pert: guin Inc., 1985). Biotechnology inInternational Agricultural Re- search. 40.OTA, Changing Ststructure of American Ag- iculture. 47. CGIAR,1984 Ann ial Report. 41. Marjnriefun, 1.--rigineering Crops no 48.News from the CG1AR(Washington, Resist Weed Killers," Science,March 21, D.C.), May/August 1986. 1986. 49. Randolph Barker, "Biotechnology and 42. Da o on conseruwanion tillage in the Farming Systems: An International Perspec- United Stotcs fromIs70:43-Till Fanner,March Live," in Institute for Alternative Agriculture, 1986; African touservamition tillage research Biotechnology and Agriculture;The Rockefeller described intIfl'A,Tt-z..ks for the Eighties: A Foundation,The President's Review and Annual Long-Range Plan(lbadar1, Nigeria: 1981), and Report 1983(New York: 1983); Kathleen in IITA,firl4imual eport 1984(Ibadan. Teltsch,"RockefellerUnitDoublesIts Nigeria: 1985). Third-World Aid,"New York Times,May 4, 1986; The Rockefeller Foundation, "The 43. Frederick H. ttii_vttel en al., "Genetic Rockefeller Foundation in the Developing Engineering and the R... estructuring of Agri- World," New York, May 1986. cultural ilesearch,"The Rural Sociologist,Vol. 3, No. 3, 1983;for the 17tistory of public agri- 50. Robert Barker, -The Changed World cultural research in thswe United States, see of Research Opportunities," in Martin Gibbs 25 6 Notes (241) and Carla Carlson, eds., Crop fkrodAily W. Wolff and David A. Peel, "The Record of Research Imperatives Revisited,coulcmuce at Global Pollution its Folar Snow and Ice,"Na- Boyne Highlands Inn, Boyne, Mich.,October ture, February 14, l85. 13-18, 1985, and at Air lie Flousc,h, De- cember 11-13, 1985. 5, Revelle, "Carb---oon Dioxide and World Climate"; Carbon Di iioxide Assessment Com- 51. News from the CGI411, Nay/August mittee, National ge--search Council(NRC), 1986. Changinv Climate (Washington, D.C.: National 52. For several perspectives un farming Academy Press, 198 .-43); Stephen Seidel and systems research, see Joyce Lovingcrifoock, Dale Keyes, Can We s&Delay a Greenhouse Warm- ed., Understanding Africa's Rural llotatholdi and ing? (Washington. DC.: U.S. Environmental Fanning Systems (Boulder, Colo.: Watview Protection Agency (IEPA), 1983). Press. 1986); potential for farrnencientist 6. Ice Age compx=arison from National collaboration described in Marten, 'Agricul- Aeronauticsand SpaceAdministration tural Research in Southeast Asia." (NASA), Goddard Sp..oace Flight Center, "Po- 53. Paul Richards, Indigenous Agrimbral tential Climatic Imiaa.lcts of IncreasingAtmo- Revolution (London: Hutchinson & Co,Ltd., spheric CO2 With tat aphasison Water Availa- 1985). bility and - in the UnitedStates," prepared for U.S. En-..tvironmental Protection Agency, Washingtco,..,... D.C., 1984, Chapter 9. Stabilizing Clien-tical Cycles 7. NRC, Global Cisci=nge in ihe Geosphere-Bio- sphere (Washington, 1. G. Tyler Miller, jr., Living in the Num- National Academy Press, 1986). went: Concepts, Problems, and Alternutka (Bel- mont, Calif.: Wadsworth Publishisg Com- B. D.H. Ehhalt,1%.-..04ethane in the Global pany, Inc., 1975). Atmosphere," Envirotz-.-zment, December 1985; 2. A.M. Solomon et al., "The GlobalCycle estimates of warrning----4- from GordonJ. Mac- of Carbon," R.M. Rotty and taD, Masters, Donald, "Climate Cit.siange and Acid Rain," "Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Puel Combus- The MITRE Corporawtion, McLean, Va., De- cember 1985, and fro ...r.7-11 V. Ramanathan tion: Trends, Resources, and 'Technological et al., "Trace Gas Trends at---rld their Potential Role Implications," and R.A. Houghton ct al., in Climate Changc,ourna/ of GeophysicalRe- "Carbon Dioxide Exchange tetweenthe At- search, June 20, 1985. mosphere and Terrestrial Ecosystems," in John R. Trabalka et al.. Atmospheric Gabon Di- 9. Global estimates from PJ. Crutzen and oxide and the Global Carbon Cycle (Washington, M.O. Andreae, "Atroo=-spheric Chemistry,"in D.C.:U.S. Government Printing Bike, T.F. Malone and J.G. Roederer, eds., Global 1985). Change (Cambridge: CiCambridge University Press, 1985); U.S. figuw-es from EPA, National 3. G.M. Woodwell et al., "Global Defores- Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1984 tation: Contribution to Atmospheric Carbon (Research Triangle Fa__rk, NC.: 1986). Dioxide," Science, December 9, 1983: range from Solomon et al., "The Global Ole of 10. MacDonald, "litnate Changeand Carbon." Acid Rain"; Ramanatftwan et al., "TraceGas Trends.- 4. Roger Revelle, "Carbon Dioxide and World Climate," Scientific American, August 11. Crutzen and Arxmdreae, "Atmospheric 1982; Roger Revelle, "The Oceans ad the Chemistry." Carbon Dioxide Problem," Oceans, Summer 12. Walter W. Fleelc_--- et al., "A Reassess- 1983; preindustrial concentration Iran Erie ment of Crop Loss fron ri Ozonc, Environmen-

257 (242) Notes tal Science & Technology,VoL 17, No. 12, 1983; zation, and inter-non--Gnat Council of Scien- Environmental Resources Limited,&V! Rain: tific Unions, Villach, _Austria, October 1985, A Review of the Phenomenon in the EEC and 20. Miller,Living 17.--n the Environment;NRC, Europe(London: Graham & Trotman Ltd., Tes1ing forEffectsc Chemicals on Ecosystems 1983). (Washington, D.C. Isrli ational Academy Press, 13. JackG.Calvert et al., "Chemical Mech- 1981); David rimet and Clive A. Edwards, anisms of Acid Generation in the Tropo- "Pesticides andEc=osystems,"BioScience, sphere,"Nature,September 5, 1985; Ellis B. July/August 1982. Cowling, "Acid Precipitation in Historical 21.NRC, Testing Effects of Chemicals; Perspective,"Environmental Science & Technol- Robert M,Carrels et Chemical Cycles and the ogy,Vol. 16, No. 2, 1982. Clobal Environment: Ar-z.rsessing Human Influences 14. A.H. Johnson et al., "Spatial and Tem- (Los Altos, Calif.: 1Nilliam Kaufmann, Inc., poral Patterns of Lead Accumulation in the 1975); Arthur]. Vanc=ler,Nutrition, Stress, and Forest Floor in the Northeastern United Toxic Choonals (Arm Arbor: University of States," Journal of Environmental Quality,Vol. MichiganPress,19&1; Lawrie Mott and Mar- 11, No. 4, 1982;James N. Galloway et al., tha Broad, l'esticid..- es in Food: What the "Trace Metals in Atmospheric Deposition: A Public Needs to Kilo- -w," Natural Resources Review and Assessment,-Atmospheric Envi- Defense Council,1n_ __c., Washington, D.C., romnent, Vol.16, No. 7,1982. March 1084, 15. NRC,Causes and Effects of Changes in 22. Foracomprehnsive review of climate Stratospheric Ozone: Update 1983 (Washington, issues,seeNRC, Cliaiging Climate. D.C.: National Academy Press,1984). 23. Michael E. ScIL __lesinger and John F.B. 16. Ibid.; Peter H. Sand, "The Vienna Mitchell, 'ModelProjections of the Equilib- Convention is Adopted,"Environment,June rium Climatic Resport__L se to Increased Carbon 1985;recentproductionincreasefrom Dioxide," in Michae-I -I C. MacCracken and Chemical Manufactuters Association, "Pro- Frederick M. Luther, eds.,The Potential Cli- duction and Release of Chlorofluorocarbons matic Effeclrof Increasin Carbon Dioxide (Wash- 11 and 12," Washington, D.C., October ington,D.C.: U.S. epartment of Energy, 1985. 1985).

17. NASA, "Knowledge of the Upper At- 24. S. Manabeancll R.T. Wetherald, "Re- mosphere," draft, January 1986; EPA, "Anal- duction in Sutnmer Sil Wetness Induced by ysis of Strategies for Protecting the Ozone an Increase in Mrsiaspheric Carbon Diox- Layer," prepared for Working Group Meet- ide,"Science,May 2_ 1986; "The Role of ing, Geneva, Switzerland, January 1985. Greenhouse Gases iri Climate Variations," 18. NASA, "Present State of Knowledge statement from Villah conference. of the Upper Atmospherc-; Paul Brodeur, 25. Dean Abrahason, Responses to "Annals of Chemistry,"The New Yorker,June Greenhouse Gas IndL.j1ced Climate Change," 9,1986. testimonybefore the Senate, Committee 19. Ramanathanetal.,-TraceGas on Environment and Erublic Works, Subcom- Trends"; "An Assessment of the Role of Car- mittee on Toxic Sub=sstances and Environ- bon Dioxide and of other Greenhouse Gases mental Oversight,1---earings, Washington, inClimateVariationsandAssociated D.C., December 10, 1985; rule of thumb Impacts,- statement from conference co- citedby LoydStcoone,Departmentof sponsored by United Nations Environment ,Kansas Stte University, Manhat- Programme, World Meteorological Organi- tan, private cornmuni-- cation, June 1986. 258 Notes (243 ) 26. Revel le, -Carbon Dioxide and World reau of the Census, "1985 Census of Climate"; William W. Kellogg and Robert Agriculture,"U.S. Department of Com- Schware, "Society, Science and Climate merce, Washington, D.C.,1984; present Change,- Foreign Affairs, Summer 1982, overconsumption in Lower Colorado from 27. Dean Abrahamson and Peter Cibo- U.S. Geological Survey, National Water Sum- rowski, -North American Agriculture and the mary 1983HydrologicEventsand Issues Greenhouse Problem," Hubert H Hum- (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- phrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of ing Office, 1984); irrigated area calculation Minnesota, Minneapolis, April 1983; Kellogg assumes an annual consumptive demand of and Schware, "Society, Science and Climate 5,500 cubic meters per hectare, which is 55 Change." percent of the average per hectare withdraw- als for irrigation estimated in Revelle and 28, M. Barth and J. Titus, eds., Greenhouse Waggoner, "Effects of a Carbon Dioxide- Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for This Induced Climatic Change": existing irrigated Generation (New York: Van Nostrand Rein- area from ibid. hold Co., 1984); "The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations," statement 34. Global calculation based on average from Villach conference; Erik Eckholm, -Sig- investment needs for new large-scale irriga- nificant Rise in Sea Level Now Seems Cer- lion projects in the Third World of $5,000 tain," New York Times, February 18, 1986. per hectare, from Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drainage.- 29. Sylvan H. Wittwer, -Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change: An Agricultural Per- 35. Cost estimate from John A. Laurmann, spective," Journal of Soil and Water Conserva- "Strategic Issues and the CO2 Environmen- tion,May/June 1980; Sylvan H. Witmer, tal Problem," in W. Bach et al., eds., Carbon "Rising Atmospheric CO2 and Crop Produc- Dioxide: Current Views and Developments in Ener- tivity,- Hortscience, October 1983. gy/Climate Research (Dord, ncht, Netherlands: D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1 d83). 30. Paul E. Waggoner, "Agriculture anda Climate Changed by More Carbon Dioxide," 36. William W. Kellogg, "The Socio-Eco- in NRC, Changing Climate; Sylvan H. Wittwer, nomic Response: Human Factors in Environ- -Carbon Dioxide Levels in the Biosphere: mental Change," paper presented at the an- Effects on Plant Productivity," CRC Critical nual meeting of the American Association for Reviews in Plant Sciences, Vol. 2, Issue 3, 1985, the Advancement of Science, Los Angeles, Calif., May 26-31, 1985. 31. Irrigation figures from W.R. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drainage in the World," 37. Der Bundesminister FUr Ernahrung, paper presented at the International Confer- Landwirtschaft, und Forsten,"Neuartige ence on Food and Water, Texas A&M Uni- Waldschaden in der Bundesrepublik versity, College Station, May 26-30, 1985. Deutschland," Bonn, West Germany, Octo- ber 1983; Federal Ministry of Food, Agricul- 32. Roger R. Revelle and Paul E. Wag- ture, and Forestry, "1984 Forest Damage goner, "Effects of a Carbon Dioxide-Induced Survey," Bonn, West Germany, October Climatic Change on Water Supplies in the 1984. Western United States," in NRC, Changing Climate. 38, AllgemeineForstZcitschnft, Munich, West Germany, No, 46, 1985 and No, 41, 33. Trend in Lower Colorado from U.S. 1986; G.H.M. Krause et al., "Forest Decline Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Statis. in Europe: Possible Causes and Etiology,- tics 1983 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern- paper presented at the International Sympo- ment Printing Office, 1983), and from Bu- sium on Acid Precipitation, Ontario, Canada,

2 5 9 (244 ) Notes September 1985; see also Susan Taft, "Re- Deutschland," paper presented at Sympo- quiem for the Forest," Time (international sium on Costs of Environmental Pollution, edition), September 16, 1985. Bonn, West Germany, September 12-13, 1985. 39. Krause etal.,"Forest Declinein Europe"; Yugoslavia figures from A llgemeine 48. Peter B. Reich and Robert G. Amund- Font Zeitschnfi, No. 41, 1986. son, "Ambient Levels of Ozone Reduce Net 40. Dieter Deumling, Wissen, West Ger- Photosynthesis in Tree and Crop Species," many, private communication, March 1986; Science, November 1, 1985. "Swiss Forests are Depleted Further by Pol- 49, Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture, lution," New York Times, December 9, 1985; and Forestry, "1985 Forest Damage Survey," Allgemeine Forst Zeitschnfi, No. 41, 1986. Bonn, West Germany, October 1985; Dieter 41. Arthur H. Johnson and Thomas G. Deomling, Wissen, West Germany, private Siccama, "Acid Deposition and Forest De- communication, October 1985. cline," Environmtntal Science & Technology, 50. Michael Castleman, "Toxics and Male Vol. 17, No, 7, 1983; Raymond M. Sheffield Infertility," Sierra, March/April 1985. et al., "Pine Growth Reductions in the South- east,- Southeastern Forest Experiment Sta- 51. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology tion, Asheville, N.C., November 1985. Assessment (OTA), Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants:Implications for Public Policy 42. Arthur H. Johnson, "Assessing the (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- Effects of Acid Rain on Forests of the Eastern ing Office, 1984); NRC, Epidemiology and Air U.S.," testimony before the U.S. Senate, Pollution (Washington, D.C.: National Acad- Committee on Environment and Public emy Press, 1985). Works, Hearings, February 7, 1984. 52. Brazil figures from NRC, Epidemialoo 43, Sandra Postel, Air Pollution, Acid Rain, and Air Pollution; Dianwu Zhao and Bozen and the Future of Forests, Worldwatch Paper 58 Sun, "Air Pollution and Acid Rain in China," (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, Ambio, Vol. 15, No, 1, 1986; Shanghai refer- March 1984). ence from Michael Weisskopf, "Shanghai's 44. Nico van Breeman, "Acidification and Curse: Too Many Fight for Too Little," Decline of Central European Forests," Na- Washington Post, January 6, 1985, ture, May 2, 1985; Tomas Paces, "Sources of 53. Vander,Nutrition,Stress,andToxic Acidification in Central Europe Estimated Chemicals; Organisation for Economic Co- from Elemental Budgets in Small Basins," operation and Development (OECD), State of Nature, May 2, 1985. the Environment (Paris: 1985). 45. Paces, "Sources of Acidification in 54. Joel Schwartz et al., Costs and Benefits of Central Europe.- Reducing Lead in Gasoline: Final Regulatosy Im- 46. C.S. Holling, "Resilience of Ecosys- pact Analysis (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern- tems: Local Surprise and Global Change," in ment Printing Office, 1985); figure on U.S. Malone and Roederer, Global Change; see also children from NRC, Epidemiology and Air Pollu- F.H. Bormann, "Air Pollution and Forests: tion; see also Richard Rabin, -Lead Poison- AnEcosystemPerspective, BioScience, ing: Silent Epidemic," Science for the People, July/August 1985. July/August 1985. 47. Andrew Csepel, "Czechs and the Eco- 55. Don L. Johnson and Quincy Dadis- logical Balance," New Scientist, September 27, man, "Acid Helps Mercury Contaminate 1984; H.J. Ewers et al., "Zur Monetarisierung Lakes," Milwaukee Sentinel, October 2, 1985; der WaldschMen in der Bundesrepublik Eugeniusz Pudlis, "Poland: Heavy Metals 260 Notes Pose Serious Health Problems,'lmbio, Vol. of Sciences, Washington, D.C., private com- 11, No. 1, 1982, munication, May 1986; see Philip Shabecoff, 56, Tri-Academy Committee on Acid "Senate Votes Tougher Pesticide Law," New Deposition, Acid Deposition: Effects on Ceochemi- York Times, October 7, 1986. cal Cycling and Biological Availability of Trace Ele- 65. Ian C.T. Nisbet and Nathan J. Karch, ments (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Chemical Hazards to Human Reproduction (Park Press, 1985); Thomas H. Maugh II, -Acid Ridge, N.J.: Noyes Data Corporation, 1983). Rain's Effects on People Assessed," Science, December 21, 1984; OTA, Acid Rain and 66. Janet Raloff, "Dioxin:Is Everyone Transported Air Pollutants. Contaminated?" Science News, July 13, 1985. 57. Magda Havas et al., "Red Herrings in 67. Thomas H. Umbreit et al., "Bioavaila- bility of Dioxin in Soil from a 2,4,5-T Manu- Acid Rain Research," Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 18, No. 6, 1984; Bernhard facturing Site," Science, April 25, 1986; Susan Ulrich, "Dangers for the Forest Ecosystem Okie, -Dioxin May Weaken Ability to Fight Due to Acid Precipitation," translated for Disease," Washington Post, April 18, 1986; EPA by Literature Research Company, An- Janet Raloff, -Infant Dioxin Exposures Re- nandale, Va., undated. ported High," Science News, April 26, 1986. 58. Daniel P. Peri, "Relationship of Alumi- 68. Ralph C. Dougherty etal., -Sperm num to Alzheimer's Disease," Environmental Density and Toxic Substances: A Potential Health Perspectives, Vol. 63, 1985, pp. 149- Key to Environmental Health Hazards," in 153; Daniel P. Peri et al., -Intrancuronal Alu- J.D. McKinney, Environmental Health Chemistry minum Accumulation in Amyotrophic Lat- The Chemistry of Environmental Agents as Po- eral Sclerosis and Parkinsonism-Dementia of tential Human Hazards (Ann Arbor, Mich.: Guam," Science, September 10, 1982. Ann Arbor Science Publishers, Inc., 1980). 59. Peel, -Relationship of Aluminum to 69. Vander,Nutrition,Stress,andToxic Alzheimer's Disease." Chemicals. 60. "The Quest for Chemical Safety," In- 70. Roger Lewin, "Parkinson's Diseas ternational Register of Potentially Toxic Chemicals An Environmental Cause?" Science, July 19, Bulletin (UNEP, Geneva, Switzerland), May 1985; for a fascinating sketch of how the link was discovered, see J. William Langston, 1985; Michael Shodell, "Risky Business," Sci- "The Case of the Tainted Heroin," The ence'85, October 1985; Philip M. Boffey, "After Years of Cancer Alarms, Progress Sciences,anuary/February 1985. Amid the Mistakes," New York Times, March 91Emissions rates based on data from 20, 1984. Ralph Rotty, Institute for Energy Analysis, 61. William U. Chandler, Banishing To- Oak Ridge AssociatedUniversities, Oak bacco, Worldwatch Paper 68 (Washington, Ridge, Tenn., private communication, May D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, January 1986); 1986 Arthur J. Vander, University of Michigan 72. Eike [Wiling and Jochen Mohnfeld, Medical School, Ann Arbor, private commu- "Energy Policy and the Energy Economy in nication, April 1986, FR Germany," Energy Policy, December 1985. 02. NRC, ToxicityTesting(Washington, 73. Sand, -Vienna Convention is D.C.: National Academy Press, 1984), Adopted"; EPA, "Strategies for Protecting 63. Ibid. OzoneLayer";CassPeterson,"Chlo- rofluorocarbon Group Supports Production 64. Charles Benbrook, Executive Direc- Curbs,"WashingtonPost,September17, tor, Board on Agriculture, National Academy 1986;status or negotiations from EPA.

261 (246) ;Vales "Stratospheric Ozone Protection Plan,"Fed- September 25-26, 1976, and amended at Bir- eral Register, January 10, 1986. mingham, England, September 1978. 74,World ResourcesInstitute(WRI), 4. Lung-Fai Wong,Agricultural Productivity World Bank, and United Nations Develop- in the SocMlUt Countries(Boulder, Colo.: West- ment Programme, -Tropical Forests: A Call view Press, Inc, 1986), for Action," WRI, Washington, D.C., June 5. Ibid.; U.S. Department of Agriculture 1985, (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS), 75. Schwartz et al..Costs and Benefits of Re- 4c1 Indices of Agricultural and Food Production, ducing Lead in Gasoline;Warren Brown, "End 9-85(unpublished printout) (Washing- Nears for Leaded Gasolinc-And Bargain to,,,D.C.:1986). These statements hold Fuel Prices,-Washington Post,December 29, whether productivity is measured in physical 1985; Robert McDonald, "European Minis- or economic terms. ters Set Timetable for Auto Emission Stan- 6. Istvan Lang, Secretary General, Hun- dards,-World Environment Report.April 17, garian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hun- 1985. gary, private communication, May 7, 1986. 76. NRC,Toxicity Testing. 7. Istvan Lang,Bioresources(Budapest: 77. J.Clarence Davies, "Coping with Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 1982). Toxic Substances,"Issues in Science and Tech- 8. Stanislaw Gomulka,Growth, Innovation nology,Winter 1985. and Reform in Eastern Europe(Madison; Uni- versity of Wisconsin Press, 1986); USDA, 78. R.L. Frisbie and Pl. Adkisson, "IPM: ERS,Eastern Europe: Outlook and Situation Re- Definitions and Current Status in U.S. Agri- port, RS-85-7(Washington,. D.C.: June culture," in Marjorie A. Hoy and Donald C. 1985), Herzog,Biological Control in Agricultural IPA4 Systems(Orlando, Fla.: Academic Press, Inc., 9, World Bank,World Development Report 1985). 1986(New York: Oxford University Press, 1986). 10. Wong,Agricultural Productivity in Social- Chapter 10. DesigningSustainable ist Countries. Economies 11. Ibid.; Charles Cobb et al,Economic In- I. Adam Smith,The Wealth of Nations(Chi- dicators of the Farm Sector(Washington, D.C.: cago: University of Chicago Press, 1976). USDA, 1986); USDA, ERS,USSR: Situation and Outlook ReportRS-86-3 (Washington, 2. See Paul A. Samuelson and William D. D.C.: May 1986). Nordhaus,Economics (New York:McGraw- Hill, Inc 1948) for the classic introduction 12. Grain output figure compiled from to economics. For discussion of sustainable USDA, ERS,World Indices;World Bank,World economics, see Hazel Henderson, "Ecolo- Development Report 1986. gists Versus Economists,"Harvard Business 13. D. Gale Johnson et al.,Agricultural Pal- Review,July/August 1973, and Herman E. ey and Trade, A Report to the Trilateral Commis- Daly, ed., Towarda Steady-State Economy (San sion: 29(New York: New York University Francisco: W.H. Freeman and Company, Press, 1985); Keith Schneider, "Cost of Farm 1973). Loss Might Be Double Original Estimate,- 3. See, for example, The , New York Times,July 22, 1986. "Manifestofora SustainableSociety," 14. Johnson et al.,Agricultural Policy and adopted at the third annual conference of the Trade;see also World Bank,World Development Ecology Party held in Sheffield, England, on Report 1986. 262 Notes (247) 15. William U. Chandler, Energy Productiv- Europe," 'halo, Vol. II, No. 6, 1982; OECD, ity: Key to Environmental Protection and Economic OECD Environmental Data, Compendium, 1985 Progress, Worldwatch Paper 63 (Washington, (Paris: 1985). D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, January 1985). 25. Goldman, The Spoils of Progress. 16, Jozsef Bognar, Director, Institute of World Economics, Budapest, Hungary, pri- 26. Ibid. vate communication. May 9, 1986. 27. Marshall I. Goldman, -Foreword," in 17. See, for example, Jhnos Kornai, Con- Boris Kornarov, The Destruction of Nature in the tradiction.s and Dilemmas (Cambridge, Mass.: Soviet Union (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe The MIT Press, 1986). Inc., 1980); Philip R. Pryde, "The 'Decade of 18. Gabor HovAnyi, Budapest, Hungary, the Environment' in the USSR," Science, April 15, 1983. private communication. May 12, 1986, and letter to the author, August 4, 1986; Chan- 28. Stanley J. Kabala, "The Hidden Costs dler.EnergyProductivity.SeealsoBela of Development," Environment, November Balassa, Reforming the New Economic Mechanism 1985; Andrzej Kassenberg and Czesawa in Hungary, World Bank Staif Working Paper Rolewicz, Przestrzenna Diagnoza Ochrony Srodo- No. 534 (Washington, D.C.; World Bank, wiska W PoLsee (Warsaw: Panstwowe Wydaw- 1982). nictwo Ekonomiczne, 1985), as described by 19. Chandler, Energy Productivity; dataon Andrzej Kassenberg, Warsaw, Poland, pri- steel production technology from Interna- vate communication, May 11, 1986; Anita Bi- tional Iron and Steel Institute, Brussels, Bel- alic, KrakOw. Poland, private communica- gium, private communication, June 1986. tion. May 21, 1986; Elzbieta Bukowy, staff scientist, Environmental Pollution Abate- 20. International Iron and Steel Institute, private communication. ment Center, Katowice, Poland, private com- munication, May 22, 1986; Zdzislaw Kacz- 21. Romania, for instance, has a low equity marek, Scientific Secretary, Polish Academy ratio, but fuel and power shortages,as well as of Sciences, private communication, May 20, other constraints, have recently led tomany 1986. hardships in that country. 29. Vaclav Smil, The Bad Earth: Environmen- 22. William U. Chandler, Investing in Chil- tal Degradation in China (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. dren,Worldwatch Paper 64 (Washington, Sharpe Inc., 1984); Liu Dizhong, "Tree Tar- D.C.: June 1985); William U. Chandler, Ban- get for 1986 Planted in Six Months," China ishing Tobacco, Worldwatch Paper 68 (Wash- Daily, July 9, 1986, ington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, January 1986). 30. World ResourcesInstitute/Interna- tional Institute for Environment and Devel- 23. Organisation for Economic Co-opera- opment, World Resources 1986 (New York: Lion and Development (OECD), OECD Eco- Basic Books, 1986); Ed A. Hewett, Energy, nomic Outlook (Paris: 1985); David Lane, Soviet Economics, and Foreign Policy in the Soviet Union Economy and Society (New York: New York University Press, 1985). (Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1984); U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 24. Marshall I. Goldman, The Spoils of Prog- Energy Information Administration (EIA), ress: Environmental Pollution in the Soviet Union Monthly Energy Review (Washington, D.C.: (Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press, 1972); January 1986); Paul Marer, Dollar GNPs of the N.H. Highton and M.J. Chadwick, "The USSR and Eastern Europe (Baltimore, Md.: Effects of Changing Patterns of Energy Use The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); on Sulfur Emissions and Depositions in Central Statistical Board of the USSR, The

263 (2,18) Nola USSR in Figures for 1984 (Mosco Fininsy 40. Ibid. Statistika Publishers, 1985). 41. Ibid. 31. Elizabeth L Perry and Christine Wong, 42. U.S. Department of Commerce, Inter- eds.,The Political Economy of Reform in Post-Mao national Trade Administration, "Doing Busi- China(Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Univer- ness in India," Overseas Business Reports. sity Press, 1985). Washington, D.C., September 1985. 32. "Economic Growth and Rural Devel- 43. Sheetal Shankar, "A Decontrol Suc- opment,"Beijing Review,March 10, 1986; cess Story,-Economic and Political Weekly,June USDA, ERS,China: Outlook and Situation Re- 1, 1985; Government of India, Ministry of port, RS-85-8(Washington, D.C.: July 1985); Finance, Economic Division,Economic Survey James P. Sterba. "China's Change,Wall 1985-86(Delhi: Controller of Publications, Street Journal,June 16, 1986. 1986). 33. USDA,ERS, China: Outlook and Situa- 44. "Death Watch At Synfuels Corpora- 6on Report;Perry and Wong,Reform in Post- tion,"Energy Daily,December 20, 1985. Mao China. 45. Johnson et al,Agricultural Policy and 34."Minding Latin America's Business, Trade;Schneider, "Cost of Farm Loss." The Economist,April 12, 1986; Mary M. Shir- ley,Managing State-Owned Enterprises,World 46. Marshall I. Goldman,USSR in Crisis: Bank Staff-Working Paper No. 577 (Washing- The Failure of an Economic System(New York: ton, D.C.: World Bank, 1983); "Cruzado W.W. Norton & Co., 1983); Albert R. Karr. Enthroned.-The Economist,March 8, 1986. "Reagan Plan to Subsidize Wheat Sales to Soviets Will Cost U.S. $52 Million,"Wall 35. World Bank,Brazil: Economic Menwran- Street Journal,August 5, 1986. dum(Washington, D.C.: 1984). 47. "Privatization: Everybody's Doing It, 36. U.S. Department of Commerce, Inter- Differently,"The Economist,December 21, national Trade Administration, "Investing in 1985; British Petroleum Company (BPC),BP Mexico," Overseas Business Reports, Wash- Statistical Review of World Energy(London: ington, D.C., December 1985; Youssef M. 1985); DOE, EIA,International Energy Annual Ibrahim, -Nation in Jeopardy," {VailStreet 1984(Washington, D.C.: 1985); DOE, EIA, Journal,October 9, 1985. Monthly Energy Review. 37. Chandler,Investing in Children;Lester 48. -Privatization: Everybody's Doing It, Reversing R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf, Differently,"The Economist;BPC,BP Statistical grica's Decline,Worldwatch Paper 65 (Wash- Review of World Energy;DOE, EIA,Interna- ington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, June tional Energy Annual 1984;DOE, EIA,Monthly 1985). Energy Review. 38.JeffreyBartholet, "Egypt Faces Harsh 49. "Privatization: Everybody's Doing It, Cuts in Government Subsidies,"Washington Differently,"The Economist;U.S. Department Post,June 26, 1986; Sadiq Ahmed et al, of the Interior, Bureau of Mines,Minerals Macroeconomic Effects of Efficiency Pricing in the Yearbook, 1981, Volume 1(Washington, D.C.: World Bank Staff Work- Public Sector in Egypt, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982). ing Paper No. 726 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1985). 50. Kornai,Contradictions and Dilemmas. 39. Organization of African Unity meeting reported on in African Development Bank ChapterI 1.Charting a Sustainable and U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, Course "Economic Report on Africa 1986,- Abidjan, Ivory Coast, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 1. Edward O. Wilson, "The Current State March 1986. of Biological Diversity,- presented at the Na- 264 Notes (249 ) tional Forum on Biodiversity, Smithsonian release,Washington,D.C., October 20, institutionand NationalAcademyof 1986. Sciences, Washington, D.C., September 21, 1986. 9. Stefi Weisburd, "One Ozone Hole Re- turns, Another is Found,"Science News,Octo- 2. JonathanLeonard, "GrandTour ber 4, 1986. Through the Amazon Gasworks," Harvard 10. Fred Pearc Magazine,November-December 1985. "Unravelling a Century of Acid Pollution,"New Scientist,September 3. Harvey Brooks, "The Typology of Sur- 25, 1986; results of the most recent U.S. soil prises in Technology. Institutions, and De- survey from U.S. Department of Agriculture, velopment," in William C. Clark and T.E. SoilConservationService,"Preliminary Munn,eds., The Sustainable Development of the 1982 National Resources Inventory" (un- Biosphere (OldTappan, N.J.: Prentice-Hall published printout), Washington, D.C, April Publishing Co., forthcoming). 1984, 4. For a thorough description of the Glo- I 1. Wilson, "Current State of Biological bal Change program, see T.F. Malone and Diversity." J.G. Roederer,eds., Global Change (Cam- 12. Estimated cost of Global Changepro- bridge:Cambridge University Press, 1985); gram from Dickson, "ICSU Gives Green M. Mitchell Waldrop. "An Inquiry into the Light-; effort needed for complete inventory State of the Earth,"Science,October 5, 1984; of biological diversity from Edward O. Wil- David Dickson, "ICSU Gives Green Lightto son. "The Biological Diversity Crisis: A Chal- Global Change Study,"Science,October 3, lenge to Science,"Issues in Science and Technol- 1986, ogy,Fall1985; technologies and analytic 5. Thomas F. Malone, testimony before techniques described in more detail by Ma- the U.S. House of Representatives, Commit- lone, testimony, Subcommitteeon Science, tee on Science and Technology, Subcommit- Research, and Technology. tee on Science, Research, and Technology, 13. Peter Didisheim, legislative aideto Washington, D.C., February 26, 1986, Representative George E. Brown, Jr, Wash- 6. Robert C. Cowen, "NASA Urges In- ington, D.C., private communication, No- vember 3, 1986. tense Earth Surveillance,-Christian Science Monitor, June 30, 1986; M. Mitchell Waldrop, 14. Gerard Piel, "Natural Philosophy in "Washington Embraces Global Earth the Constitution,-Science, September 5, Sciences,-Science,September 5, 1986. 1986; Fred Hiatt, -6,500 College Scientists 7. For a discussion of current uncertain- Take Anti-SD1 Pledge,"Washington Post,May 14, 1986; Barbara Carton, "In Growing Pro- ties surrounding carbon emissions,see Jill test, Scientists Vow to Shun SDI Research Pger, -Floating New Evidence in the CO2 Funds,-Washington Post,October 15, 1986. Debate,-Environment,September 1986; for an early effort to estimate carbon emissions 15. The World Bank,Annual Report 1986 due to deforestation, see G.M. Woodwell et (Washington, D.C.: 1986); Hobart Rowen, al., "Global Deforestation: Contributionto "World Bank May Nearly Double Loans for Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,"Science,De- Third World by 1990,"Washington Past,Sep- cember 9, 1083; for the role of the oceans, tember 22, 1986. see Andrew Cra'ne and Peter Liss, "Carbon 16. Burton I. Edelson, "Mission to Planet Dioxide, Climate, and the Sea,"New Scientist, Earth,"Science,January 25, 1985. November 21, 1985. 17. The evolution of China's population 8. National Science Foundation,"Na- policy and the origins of the one-childpro- tional Ozone Expedition Statement,-press gram are discussed in H. Yuan Tien,China: 265 (250) Not _s Demographic Billionaire,Population Bulletin, The Coevolution of Climate and Life(San Fran- Vol. 38, No. 2 (Washington, D.C.: Population cisco: Sierra Club Books, 1984). Reference Bureau, 1983). 29. Maritta Koch-Weser, World Bank, 18. AdebayoAdedeji,"Environmental Washington, D.C., private communication, Management in the Context of the Present November 4, 1986. African Economic Crisis," testimony before 30. Erik Eckholm,Planting for the Future: the World Commission on Environment and Forestry for Human Needs,Worldwatch Paper Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, Septem- 26 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, ber 18, 1986. February 1979). 19. Current population data from Popula- 31. China's reforestation objectives are tion Reference Bureau,1986 World Population discussed in Vaclav Smil,The Bad Earth(Ar- Data Sheet(Washington, D.C.: 1986), monk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 1984). 20. For data on fertilitydeclines, see 32. Robert Ross,U.S.Forest Service, World Bank,World Development Report 1985 Washington, D.C., private communication, (New York: OxfordUniversity Press,1985). October 2, 1986; Francis Urban and Thomas 21, United Nations, Department of Inter- Vollrath,Patterns and Trends in World Agricul- national Economic and Social Affairs, Popu/a- tura( Land Use(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Gov- lion Policy Briefs: The Current Situation in Devel-ernment Printing Office, 1984). oping Countries, 1985(New York: 1986). 33. Ward Sinclair, -USDA Readies Steps 22. Hobart Rowen, "Birth Rate Accelerat- to Combat Erosion,"Washington Post,Febru- ing in Africa,-Washington Post,September 3, ary 18, 1986; Ken Cook, "Pinch Me, I Must 1986. Be Dreaming!"Journal of Soil and Water Conser- vation,March/April 1986; Ward Sinclair, 23, Glenn Frankel, -In Zimbabwe, Birth "Conservation Plan Falls Short of Goals," Washington Post,July 14, Control Works," Washington Post,June 10, 1986. 1986. 34. Research on trace gases is described in Gazeta Mercantil, 24. "Family Planning," StefiWeisburd, "Greenhouse Gases En June 16, 1986; for information on Mexico's Ma:se Rival CO2,"Science News,May 18, Coleman, initiatives, seePatrick -The Power 1985. of Popular Music,"People(London), Vol. 13, No, 2, 1986, "Spreading Soap Opera,"Peo- 35. Worldwatch Institute estimate based ple,Vol. 13, No, 2, 1986, and "Marketing on economic data from Herbert R. Block,The Brings Results,"People,Vol, 13, No. 2, 1986. Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause? (Washington,D.C.:U.S.Department of 25. Robin Toner, "U.S. Withholds U.N. State, 1981), and from International Mone- PopulationFunds," New York Times, August tary Fund,World Economic Outlook(Washing- 28, 1988. ton, D.C.: May 1986), and on primary energy 26, Ibid. consumption data from British Petroleum Company,BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Atmospheric composition from "At- (London: 1986). mosphere," in Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc., Encydoped0 Britannica,Volume 2 (Chicago: 36, WarrenBrown,"FuelStandards 1976), and James Lovelock,Gala: A New Look Eased on '87, '88 Model Cars,"Washington at Life on Earth(New York: Oxford University Post, October 3, 1986. Press, 1979). 37. JohnMcCaughey,-Long-Running 28. Woodwell et al., "Global Deforesta- Appliance Standards Battle is Settled,- En- tion"; Stephen Schneider and Randi Londer, ergyDaily,August 15, 1986;Elizabeth

266 Notes (251) Tucker,-ApplianceEfficiencyMeasure 48. Ashok Rudra, "Technology Choice in Urged," Washington Post, August 26, 1986; Over the Last Three "Appliance Standards Ready," Energy Daily, Decades," presented at conference on Mac- October 20, 1986. ro-Policies and Their Relationship to Appro- 38, Elizabeth Tucker,Energy-Standard priate Technology, Overseas Development Veto: No One Won, Groups Say," Washington Council and Appropriate Technology Inter- Post, November 5, 1986. national, Washington, D,C., January 23, 1986, 39. "Improved Stoves Save Fuel," Develop- 49. Gerald O. Barney, Global Studies ment Forum, October 1986. Center, Arlington, Va., private communica- 40. Philip H. Abelson, "Electric Power tion, October 31, 1986. from the North,- Science, June 28, 1985. 50. Population Reference Bureau, 1986 41. Han Baocheng, "The Benefits of the World Population Data Sheet Three Gorges Project," Beijing Review, July 51. Celia Curtis, "Birth Control Vaccine 28, 1986. Unveiled,- People (London), Vol. 13, No. 2, 42. Helen Gavaghan, "Time and Tide are 1986; Walter Sullivan, "Scientists Develop- Right for the Severn Barrage,- New Scientist, ing A New Drug That Blocks and Halts Preg- July 17, 1986. nancy," New York Times, October 13, 1986; for a discussion of other promising contra- 43. Ibid, ceptive methods, S cc Linda E. Atkinson et al, 44. Eike Waling and Jochen Mohnfeld, "The Next Contraceptive Revolution," Fam- "Energy Policy and the Energy Economy in ilyPlanningPerspectives,January/February FR Germany," Energy Policy, December 1985; 1986. for non-nuclear alternatives in Germany, see 52. Trends in contraceptive research and Tony Catterall, -No Nukes, Says Bonn development are discussed in Linda E. Atkin- Party,-EnergyDaily,August 18, 1986; son et al., "Worldwide Trends in Funding for ThomasLand,"SwedentoGo Non- Contraceptive Research and Evaluation,- Nuclear," Worldpaper, January1986;Michael Family Planning Perspectives, September/Octo. Cross, -Nuclear Sweden's Final Meltdown," ber 1985. New Scientist, May 22, 1986. 53. Coal reserve data from British Petro- 45. Fred Pearce, "I-low to Stop the Green- leum Company, BP Statistical Review. house Effect," New Scientist, September 18, 54. Data on tropical forest resources from 1986; H.C. Cheng et al., Effects of Energ-y Tech- U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, Tech- nology on Global CO2 Emissions (Washington, nologiestoSustainTropicalForestResources D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy,1986). (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print. 46. Commission onLifeSciences, Na- ing Office, 1984). tional Research Council, Ecological Knowledge 55. Cass Peterson, "Chlorofluorocarbon and Environmental Problem-Solving (Washing- Group Supports Production Curbs,- Wash- ton, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1986). ington Post, September 17,1986;Stefi Weis- 47. Current data on China and India from hued, "Hope for International Ozone Ac- Population Reference Bureau, 1986 World cords," Science News, September 27, 1986. Population Data Sheet; China's record increase 56. RushworthM. Kidder,"Barbara in 1971 from Tien, China: Demographic Bil. Tuchman," ChristI Science Monitor, October lionaire. 7, 1986.

267 Index

acid deposition, 6, 7-8, 85, 193, 208 ecological deterioration from, 122-24, 1227, effects on forests of, 157, 166. 168, 174, 177, 136-37, 142-43, 148, 150 186, 187 efficiency in, 140, 149, 153. 198-82 formation of, 160 energy use in, 5-6, 10-12, 93, 130-32, heavy metal mobilization by, 171 140-41, 144, 154, 156 Adams, Robert, 16 fertilizer use in. 127-30 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 41 irrigation in, 10, 48-49, 93, 94, 124-27, 131. Adedeji, Adebayo, 201 135, 140-41, 163-65 Adirondack Mountains, 171 management of. 143, 148, 155-56 Afghanistan, 95 in market-oriented economies, 178-82, 192 Africa, 29, 208 nitrogen cycle and, 159 agricultural practices in, 125, 126 131, 139, policy options for, 155-56, 178-82, 189-00, 143, 144, 146, 147, 149-51 192 agricultural productivity in, 140, 164, 191 productivity of, 10-14, 139-56, 162-66, carrying capacity in, 25. 26 178-82, 193 ecological dewrioration in, 10, 13-14, 17 203, regenerative approach to. 143, 148-51, 211, 213 155-56 "ecological refugeesin. 33 research, 140, 145-48, 151-56 economic reform in, 178, 190-91 subsidies for, 122, 178, 179, 180 181, fertilizer subsidies in, 130 189-90, 192, 206 food consumption trends in. 12, 122 sustainability of, 4, 8, 12, 122-37, 143, food production in, 17. 28-29, 133, 134, 135, 148-51, 154-56, 188 148, 163 trends in, 27-20, 122-25, 127-28, 129, 130, grain trade in, 45-46 132-37, 144-56 hydropower use in 84, 95 urban growth and, 42, 45-47 population growth in, 28-29 367, 201, 203, set also cropland; fertilizer; irrigation 210 agroforestry, 149, 150 rural electrification in, 91, 92 Alaska, 3, 106 rural landlessness in, 31 Alexandria, Egypt, 41 underdeve!opment of, 188, 191 Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, 212 urbanization of, 39, 40. 54 American Association for the Advancement of African Development Bank, 191 Science. 200 Agency for International Developmen U.S. Angola, 27 (USA1D), 86. 95, 144 Antarctica agriculture DDT pollution in. 162 biotechnology's use in, 148, 1E1-54 ozone depletion above, 3, 4, 161, 197. 198 in centrally planned economies, 178-82, aquaculture, 47, 49 189-90, 192, 193 aquifers climate change's effect on. 14, 15, 162-66 contamination of, 105, 142-43, 169, 171, deforestation's effect on, 204 172

268 (254) Index aquifers (continual) Barker, Robert. 155 depletion of, 51, 126. 127, 136, 137 BarselAck nuclear plant (Sweden), 66 recharging. 199 Bataan nuclear plant (Philippines). 75, 87 Aquino, Corazon, 75 Beijing, China, 104, 170, 189 Arctic Belgium, 193 nuclear fallout in. 59 Be Band Corporation (Switzerland), 120 ozone depletion over, 198 Benbrook, Charles, 172 Argentina Bengal, Bay of, 198 electricity use in, 82, 84 Benin. 130 grain trade hy, 46 Berg, Elliot, 130 income trends in, 29 Bern, Switzerland, 198 nuclear program in, 74, 85 Bezdicek, David, 143 population growth in, 22 Bhutan, 95 recycling in, 121 biomass Arizona, 126, 127 research, 154 Asia use of, in Third World, 93, 96-97 agricultural practices in125 127, 128, 131, biotechnology, 148. 151-54 139, 141, 146 Black Forest, 166 IiuI productivity in, 140. 148 Mix, Hans, 68, 75 ,Lural research and, 146 Blue Nile River, 163 An trade in, 45-46 Bognar, _Josef, 182 Orem Revolution in, 139 Bogota River, 53 hydropower use in, 84 Bolivia. 92, 93 nutrient recycling in, 47 Bombay, India, 40 rural electrification in. 92 Boohene, Esther, 203 urbanization of, 39, 40 Borneo, 8 see also East Asia; South Asia; Southeast Asia; Brahmaputra River, 125 individual countries of Brazil, 26, 30, 123 Athens, Greece. 105 deforestation in, 211 Atommash nuclear facility (Soviet Union), 73 economic reforms in, 193 Australia. 210 energy use in, 82. 84, 88-89, 90, 91 irrigation in, 125 external debt of, 87, 190 oil production in, 192 family planning in, 203, 210 recycling in. 114 income trends in, 29 steel production in, 193 nuclear program in, 74. 85 Austria, 162 oil production in, 193 antinuclear feeling in, 58 resettlement program in, 31, 204, 211 cross-border nuclear disputes by, 67 state-owned enterprises in. 190, 193 forest damage in, 166 steel production in, 193 nuckar program in, 75. 76 urban bias in, 41 pollution control standards in, 176 waste disposal in, 107 recycling in. 110-11. 115 Bremen, West Germany, 113 Brookhaven National Laboratory (New York), Baikal, Lake, 186 209 Bangkok, Thailand, 115 Bulgaria, 187 Bangladesh Burkina Faso agriculture in, 144, 145, 164 agricultural research in 149-50 economic reform in, 191 energy efficiency in, 20 electricity use in, 82 fertilizer subsidies in, 130 fertilizer subsidies in, 130 Burma, 95, 202 food consumption in, 31 population growth in, 30 Cairo, Egypt, 40, 46 rural electrification in, 91 92. 94 Calcutta, India. 40 rural landlessness in, 30 air pollution in, 53

269 Index (255 ) population growth of, 56 human error and. 77 wastewater aquaculture in, 49 official reaction to, 63 Cali, Colombia, 116 political fallout from, 57-58, 6 72, 73. California 74-76, 79-80, 81. 85 emissions standards in 108 toll from, 58-63. 77 energy use in, 90-91, 131 Chicago, Illinois, 105-6, 116 irrigation in. 126, 127, 131 Chile, 87 recycling in, 116 China small power projects in. 97, 99 agriculture in, 123-24, 127, 129, 131. 133, solid waste disposal in, 106, 112 135, 142, 144, 145. 164. 179, 180, 181. water competition in, 127 189-90 Canada aquaculture in, 49 agriculture in, 163, 164 aquifer depletion in, 126 food packaging in, 104 coal in, 85, 176. 193. 211, 212 hydropower use in, 208 cross-border nuclear dispute by, 67 nuclear power in. 72 Cultural Revolution in. 188 oil production in, 192 ecological deterioration in. 53, 186 recycling in. 110, 114 economic reforms in. 178, 179, 181, 188-90. steel production in, 193 193 carbon dioxide, atmospheric buildup of, 3, 6, energy use in, 82. 86, 97, 99, 131 8-9, 14-15, 85, 102. 136, 158, 162, 164, food self-sufficiency in, 46, 47 174, 175, 198. 204-6 grain trade by, 46 Carlsson, Ingvar, 58 Great Leap Forward program in, 186, 188 carrying capacity, 7-15, 24-27, 37, 136-37, hydropower projects in, 85, 96, 208 196-213 income trends in, 29 Carter, President Jimmy, 192 land reforms in, 30 Caspian Sea. 127 nuclear power program in, 74 Castaneda, Jorge. 34 nutrient recycling in, 48 Cattenom nuclear plant (France), 66 oil reserves in, 12 Center for Renewable Resources (Washington, population growth in. 22, 145. 201-3, 209-10 D.C.), 118 reforestation in, 205 Centers for Disease Control, 173 rural electrification in. 92 Central America urbanization in, 40, 55 carrying capacity of. 26 water competition in, 127 economic crisis in, 35 water exports by. 51 energy shortages in, 13 chlorofluorocarbons, ozone depletion and, 4. external debt in, 86, 87 161. 174, 198, 212 rural electrification in. 95 Chongqing, China, 170 social conflict in, 32 Choucri, Nazli, 32 see also individual countries of CIMMYT, see International Center for the Central Electricity Generating Board (England), Improvement of Maize and Wheat 208 cities CFCs, see chlorofluorocarbons agriculture in, 47 Chang Jiang River, 85, 125. 164. 208 air pollution in, 160 chemical cycles economics of, 42-45. 50-53 carbon. 8-9. 158-59. 175. 201-6, 211-12 energy and, 42-45, 206 disruption of, 158-62, 204-6 food security for. 45-47. 189 ecological deterioration and, 157-76 growth of, 4. 39-42, 50-53 metals, 160-61 role of, 39 nitrogen. 159-60, 168-69. 175 solid waste disposal in, 101, 104-9, 112, 113, sulfur, 159-60 114. 115, 116, 117 Cheng, H.C.. 209 sustainability of, 41-53 Chernobyl accident, 4, 186, 212 climate change economic costs of. 62-63 CFCs and, 161-62

270 (256) Index climate change (continued) Darjeeling, India, 52 economics of, 164-66 Davies, j. Clareoce, 175 effect of, 3, 6, 0-10, 13, 14-15, 85, 102 36, debt 157, 162-66, 174 agricultural productivity and, 143 food security and, 157, 162-66 external, in Latin America, 143, 178. 188 forest cover's effect on, 175 external, of Third World, 18, 27, 33-35. 52. reasons for, 158-59, 174, 204, 206, 211 55, 81. 86-87, 128, 136, 190, 213 Club du Sahel, 126 roar ,. security and, 136 coal servicing threshold, 36 carbon emissions from, 158, 176 deforestation, 18 dependence on, 85, 187 acid rain and, 185, 186 pollution from, 170, 174, 212 in Africa, 10, 17, 211 production, 185-86, 193 agricultural production and, 178 reserves, 211 carbon cycle and, 158, 198 sulfur cycle and, 159 from chemical stresses, 166-69 see aLso energy use; fossil fuels halting, 175, 211 Coalition for Recyclable Waste (Washington, in Third World, 6, 8, 12, 13, 43-45, 184 D.C.), 119 Delhi, India, 40, 44 Coca-Cola Corporation. 119 demographics Coimbatore, India, 44 of electricity use, 81-82 Colombia social conflict and, 32-35 agricultural practices in, 146 of urbanization, 38-42 coal development in, 85 demographic transition, 20-240 7, electricity programs in. 84. 09 200-204, 209-11 water pollution in, 55 Denmark Colorado. 126, 127 aquifer contamination in. 142 Colorado River: 51 cross-border nuclear disputes by, 66 Common Market, 61-62, 68, 176, 181 population growth in, 33 see also individual countries of recycling in. 119, 120 Conservation Foundation (Washington, D.C.). solid waste disposal in, 107, 108 175 Department of Agriculture, U.S. (USDA), 50, Consultative Group on International Agricultural 103, 137, 153 Research (CGIAR), 145. 154. 155 Department of the Interior. U.S., 126 Continental Can Company, 120 desertification contraceptives, see family planning cropland and, 24. 25-26. 122. 136-37 Cornell University, 169 in Third World, 9, 17 Costa Rica, 81, 86, 93, 94 developing countries, see Third World Cote d'Ivoire, 8 Diaz-Briquets, Sergio, 32 cropland, 5-6, 132 Dnepr River, 185 access to, 30-32 Donora, Pennsylvania, 185 carrying capacity of, 136-37 Douglas, Ian, 52 degradation of, 8, 122, 126-27, 136-37 expansion in, 5, 10, 122, 123-24. 158 East Anglia. University of, 3 irrigated. 10. 48-19. 93. 94, 124-27, 131135, East Asia, 21, 30, 40 140-41, 163, 164-65 see also Asia; South Asia; Southeast Asia: synthetic chemicals' effect on, 162 individual countries of see also agriculture; fertilizer; irrigation Eastern Europe Cuba, 22 agricultural efficiency in, 179-180 Czechoslovakia, 168, 187 antinuclear feeling in, 74 Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences. 169 ecological detrioration in, 8, 167, 169, 187 economic costs of Chernobyl accident to, 62 Dacca, Bangladesh, 46 emissions control in, 187 Dalrymple, Dana, 144 energy policy in, 182. 183 Daly, Herman, 6 fertilizer use in, 141

271 Index (25 7) import restrictions from, 61-62 of nuclear. accidents. 62-63, 78 political fallout from Chernobyl accident in, of nuclear power, 68-72, 73, 75 66 population growth and, 23-24, 27-30 population growth in, 201 of recycling, 101-2, 105, 108, 111-13, 114, steel production in, 193 115, 116-21 unemployment in, 185 of Strategic Defense Initiative, 199 see also Europe; Western Europe; individual sustainable, 177-95 countries of of toxicity testing, 175 East Germany of waste disposal, 106, 108, 109 antinuclear feeling in, 66 efficiency energy efficiency in, 183 n agriculture, 140, 149, 153, 178-82 equity ratio of, 184 economic, 178-79 recycling in, 118 in fertilizer use, 142-43, 149-50 East-West Center (Hawaii). 149 in market-oriented economies, 193-95 ecological deterioration, 3, 19, 213 unemployment and, 185, 194-95 from agricultural practices. 122-24, 126-27, water use, 127, 149 136-37. 142-43, 148, 150 efficiency, energy, 182-83, 193-94, 206-9 from biotechnology, 152, 154 in centrally planned economies, 182-83, 186, in centrally planned economies, 185 193-95 193 ecological deterioration and, 174, 177, 178. chemical cycles and, 157-76 182, 207, 208, 209 economics of, 164-66, 169 innovations in. 183 from energy development, 81, 85, 208-9 in market-oriented economies, 182-83, 186, energy efficiency and, 177, 178. 182 193-95 from fertilizer use, 142-43 policy options for, 206-9 Global Change program and, 197-200, 212 in Third World, 82, 86, 87-9 managing, 211-12 in waste disposal, 88, 101-2, 105, 109-10, minimizing risks from, 173-76 I 12-13 nuclear power and, 57-60, 61-62. 77 Egypt recycling's effect on, 102, 104-5, 110, I I 1, agricultural productivity in, 34 118-20, 121 economic crisis in, 33, 34-35, 193 social consequences of, 15-19 external debt of, 34-35 economics family planning in. 210 of agricultural policy. 10-11. I78-82, 189-90, food riots in. 17, 35, 42 192 population growth in, 33. 34-35 of CFC use. 174 subsidies' use in, 35, 42, 135. 191 of cities, 42-45. 50-53 water allocation conflicts in, 33, 34 of climate change. 164-66 Electricite de France (EDF). 73 of cropland expansion. 124 electricity, 70 of ecological deterioration, 4, 6, 12-15, in agriculture, 93 164-66, 169 cooperatives. 94 of electrification, 85-7. 88-89. 0-91, 93, 05, demographics of, use. 81-82 98 diversification in generating, 94-100 of energy use, I I, 42-45, 207 ecological deterioration from use of, 81. of equity, 183-88 85 of fertilizer use, 129, 130 efficient use of, 82, 86, 87-91 of food packaging. 103, 119 from nuclear power, 68-72, 73, 74, 75 of Global Change program, 199-200 pricing of, 89, 93 global trends in. 27-30, 32-35 private sector and, 86-87, 98-99 of grain production. 10-11, 133-34. 137 for rural areas. 89, 91-100 of Green Revolution, 144 from solid wastes. 106, 112, 113 of integrated pest management, 176 subsidies for. 89, 93 of irrigation use, 126-27 see also energy use; nuclear power; renewable market reliance and. 188-93 energy

2 72 (258) Index El Salvador, 30, 35 fertilizer subsidies in, 142 energy use hydropower use in, 84 in agriculture, 5-6, 10-12, 130-32, 140-41, lead levels in gasoline in, 175 144, 154, 156 nuclear reactors in, 66 in Central America, 13 ozone concentrations in, 160 in cities, 42-45 pollution controls in, 176 climate change and, 174 radioactive fallout in, 4, 57-59, 61 econotnics of, 11, 42-45, 207 solid waste disposal in, 105, 106 efficient, 182-83, 193-94 trade by, 45 for fertilizer manufacture, 47, 48 me also Eastern Europe; Western Europe; for irrigation, 130 individual countries of policy options for, 182-83 European Economic Community (EEC), 61-62, recycling's effect on, 101-2, 105, 109-10, 1 I I, 68, 176 112-13, 115, 116, 118-19, 121 in rural areas, 89, 91-100 family planning, 202-204, 210-11 in Third World, 11, 81-83 Federal Republic of Germany, see West Germany trends in, 2069 fertilizer see also electricity; nuclear pm , renewable agricultural productivity and, 140-41 energy compost as, 50, 102, 129, 149-50 England ecological deterioration from use of, 142-43 antinuclear feeling in. 58, 64, 65 economics of, use, 129, 130 aquifer contamination in, 142 efficiency in use of, 142-43, 149-50 biomass and, 97 energy costs of manufacturing, 47, 48 Chernobyl accident and, 61, 62 fossil-fuel-based, 140, 144 cross-border nuclear disputes by, 67 nitrogen cycle and, 159 deforestation in, 177 subsidies, 128, 129-30, 142 emissions control in, 187-88 trends in, use, 10, 127-30 food packaging in, 104 waste as, 47-50, 51 hydropower use in, 208 Finland, 65, 110, 166 nuclear fallout in. 59 Florida nuclear program in, 76 irrigation in, 126, 127 population growth in, 22 recycling in, 118 recycling in, 48, 110 solid waste disposal in, 106 reforestation in, 205-6 water competition in, 127 SDI participation by, 199 Florida State University, 173 state-owned enterprises in, 188, 193 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), trade by, 45 134-35 Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. (EPA), food price policies, see subsidies, food 49, 161, 172, 175 food security, 10-12, 54 equity, in economic systems, 183-88 for cities, 46-47 Erzgebirge Mountains, 168 climate change and, 14, 15, 157, 162-66 Ethiopia risks to, 157, 162-66 ecological deterioration in, 24, 184 trends in, 123, 132-36 grain varieties in, 147 Food Security Act, 4, 124, 137, 206 population growth in, 23 Forbes, 70 water allocation conflicts in, 33 Ford Foundation, 145 Euphrates River, 39 Ford Motor Company, 207 Europe forests agricultural practices in, 125, 142-43, 163 air pollution's damage to, 6, 157, 166, cancer toll from Chernobyl accident in, 60-61, 168-69, 170, 174 77 carbon cycle and, 158, 204-6 ecological deterioration in, 6, 7, 14, 166-67, chemical stresses on, 166-69, 170, 171 168, 169, 187, 197, 199 damage to 7, 14, 157, 166-69, 170, 171, 174, energy use in, 206, 208 197, 199

273 Index (259) management of, 175, 205-6, 211 groundwater, see aquifers recycling's effect on, 102, 110, I l I, 118, VI I Guam, 171 Forest Service, U.S., 118, 167 fossil fuels. 5. 6 habitability, 198, 206-9ij 1 in agriculuire, 130, 131 Haiti, 27 carbon cycle and, 158, 175, 198, 204, 205, 206 Hall, Warren, 126 climate change and, 174 Hainer, Andrew, 41 in fertilizer production, 140, 144 Hardoy, Jorge, 53 pollution from, 160, 170, 174, 175, 176 Harvard University, 196 litrogen cycle and, 159, 160 Hawaii, 158 recycling's effect on, consumption, 102 heavy metals, 53, 160-61, 170-71, 185 in Third World, 82, 83-84, 85, 95 Hinehey, Maurice, 106 see also coal; energy use; oil Hippel, Frank von, 60 Framatome (France). 73 Hiroshima, Japan, 60 France Hailing, C.S., 169 aquifer contamination in, 142 Holmes, Andrew, 65 biomass and, 97 Honduras, 86 cross-border nuclear disputes by, 66 Hong Kong, 43 energy efficiency in, 182 cross-border nuclear dispute by, 67 food packaging in, 119 grain trade and, 46 forest damage in, 166 urban agriculture in, 47 nuclear program in, 65, 66-67, 68. 72-73, 79 water use by, 51 political fallout from Chernobyl in, 65 Hoványi, Gabor, 183 recycling in. 115 Huang He River, 125 SDI participation by. 200 Hungarian Academy of Sciene 179 state-owned enterprises in. 188, 192, 193 Hungary French Polynesia, 98 agricultural efficiency in, 179, 180 Freshwater Institute (Canada), 7 economic reforms in, 193, 195 fuelwood, use in Third World, 4, 9, 10, 12, 13, energy efficiency in, 182-83 43-45, 52-53, 97 state-owned enterprises in. 188 trade subsidies in, 183 Gale, Robert, 60 Hyderabad, India, 4 Gandhi, Rajiv, 210 hydropower, 208 Ganges River, 53, 125, 164 economics of, 85 Garden State Paper Company. 112 in Third World, 13, 45. 83- 5 Garza, Gustavo. 54 see also renewable energy Gdansk Bay, 171 General Motors Corporation. 207 Imperial Chemical Industries, 120 German Democratic Republic, see East Germany India Geyer, Georgie Anne, 33 agriculture in, 46, 125, 129, 131135, 139, Ghana. 8. 191 144, 145, 148, 163, 210 Global Change program, 197-200, 212 coal production in, d5, 193. 212 Goldman, Marshall, 185-86 deforestation in, 44-45 grain ecological deterioration in, 9, 13, 44, 53, 126, fertilizer use in, production, 128, 129 198, 203 prices, 123, 130, 133 economic reform in, 191-92, 193 production, 10-11, 17. 27-29, 122, 123-24, energy use in, 82, 91, 96. 99, 131 132-33, 137, 140-42, 163, 179. 181 external debt or, 87 trade, 45-46, 134 fuelwood prices in, 13, 52-53 Greece, 59, 75, 167 population growth in, 21, 23, 30, 202-3, 209 Green Revolution, 34. 156, 210 recycling in, 48-49, 50, 110 agricultural progress and, 139, 140, 144-45, rural electrification in, 92, 93, 94, 95 148. 154-55 rural landlessness in, 30, 31 economics of, 144 steel production in, 193 (260 In ex India (caniinutd) Ireland, 67, 167 subsidies in, 55, 130 irrigation. 124-27, 135, 163 urbanization in, 40 agricultural productivity and, 140-41 wastewater aquaculture in, 49 climate change's effect on, 163, 164-65 windpower use in, 97 economics of, 12627 Indian National Trust for Art and Cultural energy used for, 93, 94, 131 Heritage. 210 food diversity and, 135 Indian Point nuclear plant (New York), 78 trends in, use, 10, 124-27, 135 Indian subcontinent, see South Asia with wastewater, 48-49 buligraous ilpwu1Iural lb-volution,156 Irtysh River. 127 Indonesia Israel, 199 agricultural productivity in, 142 Italy, 61 biomass use in, 97 ecological deterioration in, 124, 166 biotechnology programs in. 154 nuclear program in, 76 deforestation in, 8, 211 recycling in, 110, 121 Green Revolution in, 139 reforestation in, 206 population growth in. 22, 202 SDI participation by, 200 recycling in, 115-16 state-owned enterprises in, 188, 193 resettlement program in, 31, 211 steel production in, 193 rural electrification in, 94, 95 Ivory Coast, see COte divoire urbanization in, 40 Indus River, 125, 164 Jacobsen, Thorkild, 16 Industrial Revolution, 38, 39, 45 Jakarta. Indonesia. 41 Institute for Local Self-Reliance (Washington, Japan D.C.), 101, 106 agricultural efficiency in, 146, 179, 180 integrated pest management (IPM), 175-76 agricultural subsidies in, 142, 181, 192 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 66, emissions standards in, 110 68, 73, 75, 76 energy efficiency of, 82, 87-88, 183, reaction to Chernobyl accident by, 61 193 International Biofertilizer Germplasm equity ratio of, 184 Conservation Center. 146 food packaging in, 104 International Biological Program, 200 land reforms in, 30 International Board for nuclear program in, 73 (IBPGR), 146 population growth in, 202 International Center for the Improw:ment of recycling in, 110, 111, 113, 114, 116 Maize and Wheat (CIMMYT), 145 SDI participation by, 199 International Council of Scientific Unions solid waste disposal in, 107 (ICSU), 198, 200 state-owned enterprises in, 192 International Food Policy Research Institute steel production in, 193 (IFPRI), 142 urbanization of, 40 International Geophysical Year, 200 Jerusalem, Israel, 45 International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, see Johnson, Arthur H., 167 Global Change program Johnson, President Lyndon, 148 International Irrlituic for Applied Systems Analysis. 24 Kabala, Stanley J., 186 International Institute for Environment and Kandelljonathan, 41 Development, 53 Kansas, 126 international Institute of Tropical Agriculture Kariba Dam (Zimbabwe), 85 (IITA), 146. 151, 153 Kassenberg, Andrzej, 186 International Monetary Fund. 35. 55 Katowice, Poland, 186 International Rice Research Institute (IRR1 ), Keller, Richard, 117 145-46 Kellogg. William K., 166 Iran, 85 Kenya Iraq, 27, 85 electricity use in, 82 275 Int ex (261) high-yield crops in, 144 manila, Philippines, 41, 42 population growth in, 23, 33, 37 electricity rates in, 83 Khartoum, Sudan, 41 recycling in, 115, 116 Kiev, Soviei Union, 59, GO renewable energy sources in, 45 Kinsh.oa, Zaire, 41 solid waste disposal in, 103 Kohl, Helmut, 75 Mao Zedong, 123, 129, 181, 186 188 Kornai, JAnos, 183, 194 Marten, Gerald, 149 Krakow, Poland, 186 Maryland, recycling in, 112, 117-118 Kuwait, 48 Mauna Loa, 158 metals, see heavy metals Ligos, Nigeria, 41, 46 Mexico Land Institute (Kansas ), 147 agricultural research in, 144, 145 Lang, Istvan, 179 economic crisis in, 33-34, 35, 193 Laos, 95 electricity use in, 82. 84 Li Paz, Bolivia, 41 external debt of, 18, 27, 33-34, 35, 52 Lapland, 62 income trends in, 29, 34 Latin America population growth in, 23, 33-34, 35 203, 210 agriculture in, 17, 24, 30, 139-40, 144, 197 recycling in, 48, 110, 116 ecological deterioration in, 213 state-owned enterprises in. 190, 193 economic reforms in, 178 urban bias in, 91, 54 external debt of. 86, 143, 178, 188 Mexico City fertilizer use in, 143 air pollution in, 53 food consumption trends in, 12, 22, 46, growth of, 39, 40. 41, 56 135 recycling in, 48, 116 grain trade in, 45 solid waste disposal in, 104-5 Green Revolution in. 139, 144 urban bias in, 41, 54 hydropower in. 84, 95 water shortage in, 4, 51-52 income trends in, 29 Michigan, agricultural productivity in, 164 nuclear programs in, 74, Middle East population growth in, 22, 37, 201, 203, 210 cropland salinization in, 126 rural electrification in, 91-92 demographic trap in, 37 urbanization of, 39 food deficits in, 135 see also Third World; individual countries of high-yield crops in. 139, 144 Leningrad, Soviet Union, 46 irrigation use in, 124 Leonard, H. Jeffrey, 26 oil in, 12, 17 Leonard, Jonathan. 197 population growth in, 201 Liehhardt, William, 148 see aLso Third World; individual countries of Liebig, Justus von, 127 Milgram, Jack, 113 Lima, Peru, 41 Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power Lipton, Michael, 54 (China), 99 London, England, 40, 48, 185 Minneapolis, Minnesota, solid was e disposal in, Los Angeles, California. 51 106 Lowe, John WC., 16 Minnesota, 106 Lugano. Lake, 62 agricultural productivity in, 163 Lusaka, Zambia. 41 Mitterand. Francois, 72 Luxembourg, 66, 166 Monsanto Corporation, 153 Morocco, food riots in, 17 McElroy, Michael, 196-97 Morris, David, 101. 106 Madras, India, 40 Moscow River, 186 Malaysia, 8, 202 Moscow, Soviet Union, 46 Mali, 130, 191 Moscow Trust Group, 66 Malone, Thomas, 198 Moselle River, 66 Managua, Lake, 53 Mozambique, agricultural productivity in, 13-14 Manchester, England. 48= 160 Mugabe, Robert. 191, 203

276 (262) In ex Mumford, Lewis, 39 S-54 Nigeria Munich, West Germany, 45 agriculture in, 13-14, 156 fertilizer subsidies in, 129 Nablian, Gary Paul, 147 income trends in, 29 Nagasaki. Japan, 60 oil production in. 193 Nairobi, Kenya, 41 population growth in. 22-23, 210 National Academy of Sciences, U.S. (NAS), 3, Niger River, 163 172, 198 Nile River, 39 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, competing thims on, 33, 34 U.S. (NASA), 17 North America Global Habitability research program or, 198 agricultural practices in, 125, 131, 141, 146 ozone depletion and. 161 energy use in, 131 National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, fertilizer subsidies in, 142 207 food self-sufficiency in, 46 National Electrification Administration forest damage in, 167 (Philippines), 97 grain production in, 163 National Forum on Biodtversity, 3, 196 grain trade in, 45-46 National Institute of Biotechnology and Applied hydropower use in, 84 Microbiology (Philippines), 154 nuclear programs in, 74 National Radiological Protection Board oil reserves in,I I (England), 61 ozone concentrations in, 160 National Research Council, US. (NRC), 172. population growth in, 36 209 see aLto individual countries of National Science Foundation, U.S.. 198 North Carolina, recycling in, 118 Nations, James, North Korea, urbanization of, 40 Nebraska, irrigation use in, 126 Norway Nepal food packaging in, 119 electricity use in, 82 recycling in, 115 hydropower use in, 96 Notestein, Frank, 20, 21 population growth in, 30 Nottingham, England, 105 rural electrification in, 92. 95 Nuclear Energy Agency, 68 Netherlands nuclear power antinuclear feeling in, 65 ecological deterioration and, 57-60, 61-62, 77 aquifer contamination in. 142 economics of, 68-72, 73, 75 forest damage in, 166 policy options for, 79-80 recycling in,I I I, 112, 114 promotion of, 212 Newcornbe, Kenneth, 43 public opinion of, 57-58, 63-68, 70, 72, 73, New Economic Mechanism (Hungary), 182 74, 76-77, 79, 80 New Jersey, recycling in, 117, 121 security measures for, 79 New Mexico, irrigation in, 126 trends in, 4, 58, 68-80. 85 New Scientist, 61 nuclear reactors New York. 208 accident rates of, 77-79 recycling in,I I I, 114, 116 Barsebdck (Sweden), 66 New York City Bataan (Philippines), 75, 87 recycling in, 116 cancellations of. 57-58 solid waste disposal in, 101, 102-3, 107. 108 Cattenom (France), 66-67 waste paper exports from. 110 Chernobyl (Soviet Union), 4, 57, 5 , 77-78 water use by, 5I Daya Bay (China), 0 New Zealand, carrying capacity in, 26 decommissioning, 70 Niamey, Niger, 43 Diablo Canyon (California), 91 Nicaragua Indian Point (New York), 78 revolution in, 35 Sellafteld (England), 67 water pollution in, 53 Three Mile Island (Pennsylvania), 58 62, Niger, fertilizer subsidies in, 130 65, 77-78 277 Index (263 ) Wackersdorf (West Germany ), 67 Paris, France, 40 Windscale (England), 63 electricity rates in, 83 Zwentendorf (Austria), 75 solid waste disposal in, 105 Nutrients Peroisylvania, 58, 106, 112 carbon dioxide concentrations and, 164 Perl, Daniel, 171 losses of, from acidification, 168 Peru, population growth in, 33 recycling of, 47-50 pesticides, see synthetic chemicals Nyerere, Julius, 190-91 Petrobras (Brazil), 190 Philadelphia, l'ennsylvania, solidwastedisposal Ob River, 127 in, 106, 112 Office of Recycling (New Jersey), 116 Philippines Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. (OTA), agricultural practices in, 146 152, 170 antinuclear feeling in, 58 , depletion of, 126, 137 biomass use in, 97 Ohio, solid waste disposal in, 106 biotechnology program in, 154 oil electrical diversification in, 98 climate change and, 174 energy efficiency in, 90 dependence on, 17 high-yield crops in, 145 emissions from, 158 nuclear program in, 75, 85, 87 prices. 11. 27, 34, 83, 86, 174, 192, 206 population growth in, 22, 202 production trends, 10-12, 132, 192-93 recycling in, 115, 116 reserves, 11-12 renewable energy sources in, 45 sulfur cycle and, 159, 160 rural electrification in, 93, 94, 95 in Third World, 84 urban bias in, 41 sec also energy use; fossil fuels urbanization in, 40, 42 Oklahoma, irrigation in 126 Phoenix, Arizona, aquifer depletion near, 126 Oregon, recycling in, 113, 114, 116, 118 Piel, Gerard, 200 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Plastic Recycling Foundation, 119-20 Development (OECD), I 1 I Poland Organization of African Unity, 191 agricultural efficiency in, 179, 180 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries antinuclear feeling in, 166 (OPEC). 12, 206 ecological deterioration in, 166, 167, 186 Ottawa, Canada, 198 economic costs of Chernobyl accident to, 62 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. 43 policy options ozone agricultural, 155-56, 178-82, 189-90, 192 depletion of 3, 4, 18, 161, 174 1 7, 198. for economic equity, 183-88 212 for electrification, 82, 89, 99-100 formation of. 160 for energy efficiency, 182-83, 206-9 for family planning, 200-4 Paces, Tomas, 168 for market reliance, 188-93 Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG for nuclear power, 79-80 90-91 for sustainable development, 18-19, 196-213 Padolina, W.G154 for urbanization, 41, 54-56 Pakistan pollution agricultural productivity in, 144, 145, 164 air, 6, 14. 53, 85, 102, 105, 107-8. 110, 113, cropland salinization in, 126 119, 157, 166, 168-9, 170, 174 economic reform in, 191, 193 from aluminum production, 102, 110, 119 electricity program in, 86, 96, 97, 99 from chemicals, 157, 161-62, 169-73, 178 fertilizer subsidies in, 130 energy efficiency and, 178 nuclear program in, 85 forests and, 6, 157, 166, 168-69, 170, 174 population growth in, 30 health effects of, 157, 169-73 rural electrification in, 93, 95 from heavy metals, 160-61, 170-71 rural landlessness in, 30 recycling's effect on, 102, 108, 110, 113, 119 Papua New Guinea, 94 regulation of, 119

2 78 (264) Index pollution (conlinued) Recycling Opportunity Act (Ore r in ), 116 in Third World, 53, 85 reforestation, 205-6 waste disposal and, 105, 107-8 renewable energy population in cities, 45 growth, 3, 4, 5, 17, 20-24, 32-37, 140, efficiency and, 204, 206, 208 201-204, 209; see also Africa; Latin in Third World, 82, 83-86, 93, 00, 174 America; North America; South Asia; see also biomass; hydropower Southeast Asia; Third World; individual research countries of agricultural, 140, I45A8, 151-56 stresses, 17, 24-27, 30-32, 36-37 biomass, 154 see also carrying capacity; demographics; family planning, 210-11 demographic transition; family planning forestry, 167-68, 169 Portland, Oregon, 113 for sustainable development, 197-200 Portugal, 167 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, U.S. Pott, Percival, 169 (RCRA), 120 Pravda, 63 Reykjavik, Iceland, 45 Pripyat, Soviet Union, 60, 62 Richards, Paul, 156 Public Utilities Regulatory Polici Act (1 URPA) Rockefeller Foundation, 145, 155 (1978), 99, 106 Rodale Research Center (Pennsylvania), 147- 148 radioactive materials Rodale, Robert, 143 cesium 137, 59, 60, 61, 62, 64 Romania

from Chernobyl accident, 4, 58-60 agricultural efficiency in, 1 0 disposal of, 77, 79 energy efficiency in, 182, 187 in food chain, 59, 61, 62 equity ratio of, 184 health effects from exposure to, 59, 60-61, 77 Rome, Italy iodine 131, 59, 61 antinuclear demonstrations in. 63 plutonium 239, 59 recycling in, 118 strontium 90, 59 Rotterdam, Holland, 45 in water supply, 59 Rudra, Ashok, 210 Reagan, President Ronald, 199-20003, 207 rural landlessness, 30-32, 54-55 recycling Rwanda, ecological deterioration in, 150 barriers to, 102, 108-9, 112, 114, 118-19 of degraded materials, 109, 110 Sadat, Anwar, 35 economics of, 101-2, 105, 108, I I 1-14, 115, San Francisco, California, 45 116-21 solid waste disposal in, 101 effect of, on air pollution, 102, 108, 110, 113, Siio Paulo, Brazil 119 air pollution in, 170 effect of, on ecological deterioration, 102, electricity rates in, 83 104-5, 108, 110, I I I, 113, 118-20, 121 energy efficiency in, 91 effect of, on energy use, 88, 101-2, 105, growth of, 39, 40, 41 109-10, I I I, 112-13, 115, 116, 118-19, renewable energy sources in, 45 121 Satterthwaite, David. 53 effect of, on forests, 110, I I I, 118, 121 Saudi Arabia, oil production in, 193 food packaging and. 102-4, 119-20 Scotland, reforestation in, 205-6 products unsuitable for, 103, 104, 110, I I I, Seidman, Neil, 106 I 19-20 Sellafield nuclear plant (England), 67 promoting, 111, 114, 115, 116-21 Senegal, fertilizer subsidies in, 130 reverse vending machines for, 114-15 Senegal River, 163 scavenging and, 115-16 Seoul, South Korea, 47 subsidies, I I I, 114, 116-18, 120-21 air pollution in, 53 successful programs for, 112, 113-18 Shanghai, China, 47 sustainability of,I 11-12, 116-18. 119, 121 air pollution in, 170 trends in, 109-13, 119-21 solid waste disposal in, 104

273 Index (265) Shea, Mary, 119 steel production in, 193 Singapore, energy efficiency in, 00, 91 urbanization of, 40 Sloggett, Gordon, 137 Soviet Union Smil, Vac lav, 53 agricultural efficiency in, 179, 180- I Smith, Adam, 177 agricultural policy in, 123, 136, 192 Smith, Robert Angus, 160 antinuclear feeling in, 66, 74 Smithsonian Institution (Washington, D.C.), 3 cancer toll from Chernobyl accident in, 60 soil coal reserves in, 85, 211 acidification of, 8, 168 coal usc in, 176, 193 chemical ehimges in, 168-6 ecological deterioration in, 185, 187 depleted, 184 economic costs of Chernobyl accident to, 62 erosion, 4, 6, 8, 12-13, 122 124, 136-37, economic reforms in, 178 148, 149, 169, 178, 199 emissions control in, 187 Solidarity (Poland), 66 energy costs from Chernobyl accident to, 63 solid waste energy efficiency in. 182, 187, 193 disposal in cities, 101. 104-9, 112, 113, 114, energy policy in, 183 115, 116, 117 equity ratio of, 185 managing, 101-2, 104-8, 119 fertilizer use in, 141 Solomon, Susan, 198 grain production in, 123 163 South Africa grain trade by. 46, 133 high-yield crops in, 144 irrigation in, 127 irrigation in, 127 nuclear power program in, 4, 57, 68, 73-75 South America population growth in, 202 irrigation in, 125 recycling in, 114, 183 rural electrification in, 95 solid waste disposal in, 107 see also individual countries of state.owned enterprises in, 18:193 South Asia unemployment in, 185 carrying capacity of, 26 Spain demographic trap in, 37 forest damage in, 167 food deficits in, 134, 135 recycling in, 121 grain production in, 123, 133 steel production in, 193 high-yield crops in, 144 spoiisof Progress, The, 185 land distribution in, 30-31 Sri Lanka, fertilizer subsidies in, 129 oil reserves in, 12 Stalin, Josef. 192 population growth in, 29-30, 201, 202 Star Wars, see Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) rural landlessness in, 30 Stilkind. Jerry, 54 underdevdopment of, 188, 191-92 Stockholm, Sweden, nuclear fallout in, 59 urbanization in, 40 Stone, Bruce, 142 see also Asia; East Asia; Southeast Asia; Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 199-200 individual countries of stress Southeast Asia chemical, 7-8, 157-76, 204-6 high-yield crops in, 144 economic, 32-35 population growth in, 22, 201, 202 effect on humans of. 170 rice production in, 163 environmental, 15-19, 24-27, I7-76 see also Asia; East Asia: South Asia; individual on past societies, 15-16, 37 countriesor population-induced, 3345 South Korea subsidies electricity use in, 82 agricultural, 42, 122, 178, 179, 180, 181, energy efficiency in, 89-90 189-90, 192, 206 income trends in, 29 for electricity, 89, 93 land reform in. 30 fertilizer, 128, 12940, 142 nuclear programs in, 74, 85 food. 35, 55, 135 recycling in, 110 for nuclear power, 75 reforestation in, 205 for recycling, 1 1 1, 114, 120-21 280 (266) Inc ex

subsidies (continued) trade, 183 integrated pest management in, 176 urban bias of 42 irrigation in, 126, 127 Sudan water competition in, 127 agricultural productivity in, 13-14 Thailand external debt of, 27 biotechnology program in, I. food riots in, 17 family planning in, 22, 202, 210 water allocation conflicts in food price policies in, 55 sustainability urbanization in, 40 of agriculture. 4, 8, 12, 122-37 143, 148-51, wastewater aquaculture in, 49 154-56, 188 Third World of cities, 41-53 age structure in, 32, 33 of economies, 177-95 agricultural practices in, 126-27, 128, 143, of electrification programs, 81, 82, 86400 146, 147, 153, 172 leadership toward, 68, 209-13 agricultural productivity in, 17, 139, 140, 142, policy options for, 196213 143-45 recycling and, 111-12, 116-18, 119, 121 agricultural subsidies and. 128, 129-30, 181 research for, 197-200 biomass use in, 93, 96-97 Sweden biotechnology in, 148, 151, 152, 154, 155, acid rain curtailment in, 176 156 antinuclear feeling in, 58. 64-65 demographic trap in, 36-37 Chernobyl accident and, 58, 59, 61, 62, 64- ecological deterioration in, 4. 6, 12, 13, 65 43-45, 50, 53, 85, 161, 170, 175, 200, cross-border nuclear disputes by, 66 213 emissions standards in, 108. 110. 176 economic crisis in, 33-35 energy efficiency in, 182 economic systems in, 178 forest damage in, 166 energy efficiency in, 82, 86, 87-91, 206 recycling in, 114 energy policies in, 183, 212 renewable energy use in, 208 energy use in, 6, II, 42, 174, 207-8, 212 soil acidification in, 8 external debt of, 18, 27, 35, 52, 55, 81, 86, solid waste disposal in, 107. IOS 128, 156, 190, 213 Switzerland food consumption trends in, 122, 134-35 antinuclear referendum in, 63-64 fuelwood use in, 4, 9, 10, 12, 13, 43-15, forest damage in, 14, 166-67 52-53, 97 government reaction to Chernobyl in, 61, 62 grain trade in, 45, 46 nuclear program in, 76 high-yield crops in, 139, 144-45 pollution control standards in. 176 nuclear programs in, 74, 85 recycling in, 108, 1 1 1, 114, 115 nutrient recycling in, 47-50 solid waste disposal in, 107 population growth in, 22-23, 33-37, 200-4, Sydney, Australia, 51 210 synthetic chemicals renewable energy use in 45. 81, 82, 83-86, health effects from. 162. 171-73 93, 95-100 pollution from, 161-62, 171-73 rural electrification in, 91, 97, 98-100 toxicity testing of, 172, 175 rural landlessness in. 30-32 Synthetic Fuels Corporation (United State, 192 state-owned enterprises in, 188, 190-91. 193 unemployment in, 55 Taiwan urban bias in, 41-42, 54-56, 82, 91 nuclear program in, 74, 85 urbanization trends in, 39, 40-42, 54 nwal electrification in, 92 waste treatment in, 41 urbanization of, 40 see also individual countries of Tanzania Three Gorges project (China), 85, 208 agricultural productivity in. 13-14 Three Mile Island nuclear plant (Pennsylvania) economy of, 190-91 cleanup costs for, 62, 78 Technical University of Berlin, 169 human error and, 77

281 Index (267) official reaction to, 63 nutrient recycling in, 48, 49 political fallout from, 6E oil in, 11-12, 193 radioactivity released from, 58 ozone exposure in, 170 thresholds, crossing natural, 3-10, 12-17. 23. population growth in, 22, 202, 203 24-27, 36-37, 157-59, 168-69, 200-12 recycling in, 110, 113, 114, 115, 116 Tianjin, China, 104 reforestation in, 206 Tigris River, 39 research in, 147, 169 tobacco, 171, 185 solid waste disposal in, 101, 102, 1 -6, Todaro, Michael, 54 107, 108, 112 Togo, 130 state-owned enterprises in, 188. 192 Tokyo, Japan. 45, 57 steel production in, 193 Tuchman, Barbara. 212 synthetic chemical use in, 171-72 Tucson, Arizona, aquifer depletion near, 4, 126 tobacco use in, 171 Tunisia, food riots in. 1'7 unemployment in, 185 Turkey water competition in, 127 electricity program in, 09 Ural River. 185 new crop varieties it., 145 urbanization, see cities Uruguay, population growth in. 22 United Kingdom,seeEngland U.S. Conference of Mayors, 106 United Mission to Nepal, 96 U.S. Geological Survey, 3 United Nations (UN), 208 utilities Economic Commission for Africa, 201 debt in Third World. 86-87 Economic Commission for Europe, 176 efficiency programs for, 89, 90-91 Environment Programme (UNEP), 175, 176 nuclear pc wer and, 70 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 24. reforms in, 80 134-35 in Third World, 82-91 Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), 41, 203 Vander, Arthur J., 173 World Health Organization, 61, 134-35 Venezuela World Meteorological Organization, 176 hydropower projects in, 84 United States oil production in, 193 agricultural practices in, 125-29, 132, 142, Vietnam 153 population growth in, 22, 202 agricultural productivity, 122. 147, 179, 180 urbanization in, 40 agricultural subsidies in, 181, 192 wastewater aquaculture in, 49 antinuclear feeling in, 65 Virginia, solid waste disposal in, 106 aquifer depletion in, 126, 137 Vitousek, Peter M., 9 biotechnology in, 152 Volga River, 185 CFC ban in, 174 Volta River, 163 climate change's effect on, 164-65 coal in, 85, 176, 211 Wackersdorf nuclear plant (West Germany), cropland in, 123, 124, 133, 136 67 ecological deterioration in, 137, 159, 162, Walker, Peter, 75 167, 170-71, 187, 199 Washington, D.C. emissions standards in, 108. 110, 170, 187 electricity rates in. 83 energy use in, 81. 82, 87-88, 132, 182, 187, nuclear fallout in, 57 193, 206-7 Washington State University, 143 equity ratio of, 184-85 waste management, 101-21 family planning and, 203, 2 10-1 1 Waste Management Board (California), 112 food packaging in, 103-4, 119, 120 waste stream, 102, 103, 109. 112, 113 forest damage in, 167, 169 Water and Power Development Authority grain production in, 137, 163 (Pakistan), 99 heavy metal pollution in, 170-71 Wealth of Nations, The,177 nuclear program in, 68, 70-72 -Weltst3die", 41 282 (268) hide. Western Europe World Bank agricultural efficiency in, 179, 193 Brazil and, 190 agricultural subsidies in, 192 carrying capacity study by. 25-26 antinuclear demonstrations in, 63 electricity development and. 86 budget deficit in, 192 food price policies and, 55 energy efficiency in, 187 Global Change program and, 200 forest damage in, 7, 166, 169, 177 hydropower and, 45, 85 grain production in, 28-29 land access study by, 30 grain trade in, 46, 122 nutrition analysis by. 134 nuclear programs in, 74 nutrient recycling and, 47-48, 49 nutrient recycling in, 49-50 population control and. 203 population growth in, 21, 28-29, 201 resettlement programs and. 204 recycling in. 116 rural electrificaton and, 96 solid waste disposal in, 107, 108 World Commission on Environment and unemployment in, 185 Development, 18 ser aLsa Eastern Europe; Europe; individual World Court, Chernobyl accident claims before, countries of 62-63 West Germany World Health Organization (WW, 134-35 antinuclear feeling in. 58, 63 reaction to Chernobyl accident by. 61 aquifer contamination in, 142 World Meteorological Organization, 176 Chernobyl accident and, 61-62 World Resources Institute (Washington, D.C.). cross-border nuclear disputes by, 66, 67 175 ecological deterioration in, 7, 166, 169, Worldwatch Institute, nuclear power projection 187 by, 68-69 emissions standards in, 108, 110 energy use in, 174, 208 Yangtze River, see Chang Jiang River equity ratio of, 184 Yellow River, are Huang He River forest damage in, 7, 166, 169 Yugoslavia nuclear program in. 68, 72, 75-76 antinuclear feeling in, 66 nuclear security and, 79 cropland reduction in, 124 pollution controls in, 176, 187 energy efficiency in, 187 population growth in, 22, 33 forest damage in, 166 recycling in, 110-11, 113, 114, 115, 120 Zaire resource recovery training in. 108 deforestation in, 211 SDI participation by. 199-200 economic reforms in, 191 state-owned enterprises in, 192, 193 hydropower use in, 96 Westinghouse Corporation, 87 population growth in, 21 Wiarda, Howard, 32 Zambia Wiarda,'maSiquiera. 32 economic reform in, 191 Wilson, E.O., 196, 199 food price policies in, 55 windpower, see renewable energy Zimbabwe Windscale disaster, official reaction to. 63 economic reform in, 193 Wisconsin, 118 economy of, 191 agricultural productivity in, 163-64 family planning in. 203, 210 heavy metal pollution in, 171 high-yield crops in. 144 Woebegon. Lake. 300 hydropower project in, 85 Wong. Lung-Fai, 180 Zwentendorf nuclear plant (Austria), 75

28:3 "Our relationship with the earth and its natural systems is changing, often in ways that we do not understand,- write Worldwatch Institute President Lester R. Brown and Senior Researcher Sandra Poste!. "The scale of human activities threatens the habitability of the earth itself. A sustainable society satisfies its needs without diminishing the prospects of the next generation. But by many measures, contempo- rary society fails to meet this criterion." State of the World 1987 examines the counterpoint of urgency and uncertainty that has come to dominate world affairs in an age when the environmental consequences of human activities transcend national boundaries. The report is the fourth inan annual series from Worldwatch assessing worldwide progress toward achieving a sustainable society. Producers of the award-winning NOVA programs on public television are working with the Institute to develop a ten-part documentary series on the State of the World reports. The 1987 report assesses human-caused disruptions of global chemical cycles; evaluates the worldwide reappraisal of nuclear power after the Chernobyl accident; profiles the accelerating urbanization of the world's population; discusses the shift to reliance on markets in a growing number of countries; and advocates new initiatives in recycling materials and raising agricultural productivity. In contrasting State of the World 1986 with the State of the Union address, Time's Hugh Sidey wrote that it was "arguably ti more accurate and provocative picture of the globe than the one sketched by the President."

Economic activity could be approaching a level where further growth hi gross world product costs more than it is worth. By 2000, three out of the five cities with populafions of 15 million or more will be in the Third World. Over two-thirds of the petople in most European countries are now against the construction of nuclear plants. More than half the cities in the United States will exhaust their current landfills by 1990. Climate change could carry a global price tag of $200 billion for irrigation adjustments alone. The existing scientffic effort falls short of what is needed to assess the impacts of human activity on the global enAronment. For some of the major adjustments facing humanity, a relatively small number of counfiles hold the key to success.

COVER DEMON BY MIKE McIVER

FPT ISBN 0-393-30389-6>. *1.95

A