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Inégalités Économiques Inégalités économiques Rapports Tony Atkinson, Michel Glaude et Lucile Olier Thomas Piketty Commentaires Michel Dollé Mireille Elbaum Jacques Freyssinet Fiorella Kostoris Padoa Schioppa Compléments Olivier Bontout, Christine Chambaz, Valérie Champagne, Marc Fleurbaey, Denis Fougère, Dominique Goux, Francis Kramarz, Bertrand Lhommeau, Élisabeth Maurice, Éric Maurin, Antoine Parent, Pierre Ralle, Mercedes Sastre et Alain Trannoy Réalisé en PAO au Conseil dAnalyse Économique par Christine Carl © La Documentation française. Paris, 2001 - ISBN : 2-11-004897-2 « En application de la loi du 11 mars 1957 (article 41) et du Code de la propriété intellectuelle du 1er juillet 1992, toute reproduction partielle ou totale à usage collectif de la présente publication est strictement interdite sans lautorisation expresse de léditeur. Il est rappelé à cet égard que lusage abusif de la photocopie met en danger léquilibre économique des circuits du livre. » La création du Conseil dAnalyse Économique « répond à la nécessité pour un gouvernement trop souvent confronté à lurgence, de pouvoir se référer à une structure de réflexion qui lui permette déclairer ses choix dans le domaine économique. Jai souhaité aussi créer un lien entre deux mondes qui trop souvent signorent, celui de la décision économique publi- que et celui de la réflexion économique, universitaire ou non. Jai pris soin de composer ce Conseil de façon à tenir compte de toutes les sensibilités. Le Conseil dAnalyse Économique est pluraliste. Cest là un de ses atouts principaux, auquel je suis très attaché. Il doit être un lieu de confrontations sans a priori et les personnes qui le composent doivent pouvoir sexprimer en toute indépendance. Cette indépendance je le sais vous y tenez, mais surtout je la souhaite moi-même. Ces délibérations naboutiront pas toujours à des conclusions parta- gées par tous les membres ; lessentiel à mes yeux est que tous les avis puissent sexprimer, sans quil y ait nécessairement consensus. ... La mission de ce Conseil est essentielle : il sagit, par vos débats, dana- lyser les problèmes économiques du pays et dexposer les différentes op- tions envisageables. » Lionel Jospin, Premier Ministre Discours douverture de la séance dinstallation du Conseil dAnalyse Économique, le 24 juillet 1997. Salle du Conseil, Hôtel de Matignon. Sommaire Introduction ............................................................................................... 7 Jean Pisani-Ferry Les inégalités économiques ..................................................................... 11 Tony Atkinson, Michel Glaude et Lucile Olier Les inégalités dans le long terme........................................................... 137 Thomas Piketty Commentaires Michel Dollé .......................................................................................... 205 Mireille Elbaum ..................................................................................... 213 Jacques Freyssinet................................................................................. 219 Fiorella Kostoris Padoa Schioppa ........................................................ 225 Compléments A. Quelques réflexions sur la mesure des inégalités et du bien-être social.............................................................................. 239 Marc Fleurbaey B. Protection sociale, croissance et inégalités : vieux débats, nouvelles réponses........................................................... 253 Antoine Parent C. Vue densemble des inégalités de revenu et de patrimoine .............. 269 Jean-Michel Hourriez et Valérie Roux D. Lévolution des revenus et des patrimoines déclarés à limpôt sur le revenu et à limpôt sur la fortune dans les années quatre-vingt-dix............................................................ 285 Valérie Champagne et Élisabeth Maurice E. Les effets des prélèvements sociaux sur la dispersion des salaires au cours de la décennie quatre-vingt-dix ............................................... 301 Olivier Bontout, Christine Chambaz, Bertrand Lhommeau et Pierre Ralle INÉGALITÉS ÉCONOMIQUES 5 F. Une décomposition de lévolution de linégalité en France avec une perspective internationale, 1985-1995 ................................... 315 Mercedes Sastre et Alain Trannoy G. La mobilité salariale en France de 1967 à 1999 ............................... 333 Denis Fougère et Francis Kramarz H. Les nouvelles technologies et lévolution récente de la demande de travail par qualification............................................. 355 Dominique Goux et Éric Maurin Résumé .................................................................................................. 373 Summary ................................................................................................ 379 6 CONSEIL DANALYSE ÉCONOMIQUE Introduction Parmi les sciences sociales, léconomie est facilement soupçonnée davoir des tentations impérialistes. Sil est un domaine où elle doit sen garder, et quelle doit aborder avec précaution, cest celui des inégalités. En y péné- trant, elle fait en effet face à une triple difficulté. La première est méthodologique. Appréhender les inégalités suppose den définir la nature et den mesurer létendue. Ni lune ni lautre de ces démarches ne vont de soi. Parce quil existe différents types dinégalités de revenu, de patrimoine, de consommation, etc. et parce quil existe plus dune manière de mesurer une dispersion. Au contraire de ce qui se passe pour la croissance, lemploi, linflation, nous ne disposons donc daucune mesure générale de linégalité. Chaque indicateur se définit par ce quil ignore autant que par ce quil évalue. La deuxième difficulté est analytique. Doù viennent les inégalités, quels en sont les effets ? Ces questions sont de longue date au cur de débats économiques comme, dailleurs, philosophiques , et elles nont reçu aucune réponse définitive. De nouveaux travaux ont ces dernières années tenté dévaluer dans quelle mesure des facteurs généraux comme la mon- dialisation ou le changement technique pouvaient être à lorigine de modi- fications dans la répartition du revenu au sein de nos sociétés, comme entre elles. Dautres ont tenté de déterminer si le caractère égalitaire dune so- ciété était favorable ou défavorable au développement économique. Ce domaine de recherche est actif, ce qui veut dire quil est aussi controversé. La troisième difficulté est philosophique. La boîte à outils usuelle de léconomiste ne fournit que des outils très pauvres pour traiter des ques- tions déquité distributive. Elle ne leur permet ni de fixer des normes quant au degré dégalité quil serait souhaitable datteindre ni, hormis des situa- tions qui se rencontrent rarement, de dire quelles seraient à la marge les redistributions souhaitables. Pour donner une idée de lampleur de ces difficultés, il suffit de sinter- roger sur la signification dune phrase aussi apparemment intelligible que « les inégalités se sont accrues ». Pour sen tenir aux seuls revenus, veut-on dire que les pauvres sont devenus plus pauvres ? que les riches sont main- tenant plus riches ? quil est désormais plus difficile (ou, dailleurs, plus facile) de senrichir dans le cours dune vie ? que les jeunes daujourdhui disposent, au même âge, dun revenu plus faible que ceux dhier ? ou en- INÉGALITÉS ÉCONOMIQUES 7 core quau sein dune catégorie donnée, par exemple les détenteurs dun certain diplôme, la dispersion des revenus sest accrue ? Chacune de ces assertions renvoie à une dimension des inégalités de revenu, chacune peut résulter dune ou plusieurs causes spécifiques, chacune peut appeler des mesures correctrices ou ne pas les appeler. Le Conseil danalyse économique avait déjà abordé ces sujets à travers les rapports de Tony Atkinson sur la pauvreté et lexclusion (n° 6), de François Bourguignon sur la redistribution (n° 11) et, dans un domaine voisin, de Béatrice Majnoni dIntignano sur linégalité entre femmes et hommes (n° 15). Cest cependant la première fois que la question des inégalités économiques est traitée directement dans un rapport. Ou plutôt dans deux : celui de Tony Atkinson, Michel Glaude et Lucile Olier ; et celui de Thomas Piketty, qui sont publiés conjointement dans le présent volume. Ces deux rapports nont pas le même objet. Le premier embrasse large : il vise à donner un tableau détaillé des inégalités économiques dans la France daujourdhui, à analyser leurs origines, à évaluer lincidence des mécanismes redistributifs, à indiquer quels sont les instruments appropriés dune poli- tique de lutte contre les inégalités. Il prend appui pour cela sur toute une gamme dindicateurs, des plus frustes aux plus sophistiqués, et mobilise les résultats de nombreuses études empiriques, sur données françaises ou in- ternationales, pour aboutir à une image complète de la situation et formuler des recommandations opérationnelles. Lobjet du second rapport, celui de Thomas Piketty, est plus circonscrit : il porte sur la distribution des reve- nus fiscaux dans la France du XXe siècle. Mais il offre un tableau saisissant dun siècle de partage du revenu, et formule une thèse de grande portée politique quant au rôle qua joué limpôt sur le revenu pour empêcher la reconstitution de grandes fortunes après les sinistres économiques des années trente à cinquante. Ces deux rapports sont donc très différents. Leurs convergences nen sont que plus intéressantes. Trois dentre elles méritent dêtre soulignées. Les deux rapports dépeignent dabord lun et lautre une France objecti- vement moins inégalitaire que ne le suggèrent les discours
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