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Introduction, Structure, and Advanced Programming Techniques
APQE12-all Advanced Programming in Quantitative Economics Introduction, structure, and advanced programming techniques Charles S. Bos VU University Amsterdam [email protected] 20 { 24 August 2012, Aarhus, Denmark 1/260 APQE12-all Outline OutlineI Introduction Concepts: Data, variables, functions, actions Elements Install Example: Gauss elimination Getting started Why programming? Programming in theory Questions Blocks & names Input/output Intermezzo: Stack-loss Elements Droste 2/260 APQE12-all Outline OutlineII KISS Steps Flow Recap of main concepts Floating point numbers and rounding errors Efficiency System Algorithm Operators Loops Loops and conditionals Conditionals Memory Optimization 3/260 APQE12-all Outline Outline III Optimization pitfalls Maximize Standard deviations Standard deviations Restrictions MaxSQP Transforming parameters Fixing parameters Include packages Magic numbers Declaration files Alternative: Command line arguments OxDraw Speed 4/260 APQE12-all Outline OutlineIV Include packages SsfPack Input and output High frequency data Data selection OxDraw Speed C-Code Fortran Code 5/260 APQE12-all Outline Day 1 - Morning 9.30 Introduction I Target of course I Science, data, hypothesis, model, estimation I Bit of background I Concepts of I Data, Variables, Functions, Addresses I Programming by example I Gauss elimination I (Installation/getting started) 11.00 Tutorial: Do it yourself 12.30 Lunch 6/260 APQE12-all Introduction Target of course I Learn I structured I programming I and organisation I (in Ox or other language) Not: Just -
Zanetti Chini E. “Forecaster's Utility and Forecasts Coherence”
ISSN: 2281-1346 Department of Economics and Management DEM Working Paper Series Forecasters’ utility and forecast coherence Emilio Zanetti Chini (Università di Pavia) # 145 (01-18) Via San Felice, 5 I-27100 Pavia economiaweb.unipv.it Revised in: August 2018 Forecasters’ utility and forecast coherence Emilio Zanetti Chini∗ University of Pavia Department of Economics and Management Via San Felice 5 - 27100, Pavia (ITALY) e-mail: [email protected] FIRST VERSION: December, 2017 THIS VERSION: August, 2018 Abstract We introduce a new definition of probabilistic forecasts’ coherence based on the divergence between forecasters’ expected utility and their own models’ likelihood function. When the divergence is zero, this utility is said to be local. A new micro-founded forecasting environment, the “Scoring Structure”, where the forecast users interact with forecasters, allows econometricians to build a formal test for the null hypothesis of locality. The test behaves consistently with the requirements of the theoretical literature. The locality is fundamental to set dating algorithms for the assessment of the probability of recession in U.S. business cycle and central banks’ “fan” charts Keywords: Business Cycle, Fan Charts, Locality Testing, Smooth Transition Auto-Regressions, Predictive Density, Scoring Rules and Structures. JEL: C12, C22, C44, C53. ∗This paper was initiated when the author was visiting Ph.D. student at CREATES, the Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (DNRF78), which is funded by the Danish National Research Foundation. The hospitality and the stimulating research environment provided by Niels Haldrup are gratefully acknowledged. The author is particularly grateful to Tommaso Proietti and Timo Teräsvirta for their supervision. -
Econometrics Oxford University, 2017 1 / 34 Introduction
Do attractive people get paid more? Felix Pretis (Oxford) Econometrics Oxford University, 2017 1 / 34 Introduction Econometrics: Computer Modelling Felix Pretis Programme for Economic Modelling Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Lecture 1: Introduction to Econometric Software & Cross-Section Analysis Felix Pretis (Oxford) Econometrics Oxford University, 2017 2 / 34 Aim of this Course Aim: Introduce econometric modelling in practice Introduce OxMetrics/PcGive Software By the end of the course: Able to build econometric models Evaluate output and test theories Use OxMetrics/PcGive to load, graph, model, data Felix Pretis (Oxford) Econometrics Oxford University, 2017 3 / 34 Administration Textbooks: no single text book. Useful: Doornik, J.A. and Hendry, D.F. (2013). Empirical Econometric Modelling Using PcGive 14: Volume I, London: Timberlake Consultants Press. Included in OxMetrics installation – “Help” Hendry, D. F. (2015) Introductory Macro-econometrics: A New Approach. Freely available online: http: //www.timberlake.co.uk/macroeconometrics.html Lecture Notes & Lab Material online: http://www.felixpretis.org Problem Set: to be covered in tutorial Exam: Questions possible (Q4 and Q8 from past papers 2016 and 2017) Felix Pretis (Oxford) Econometrics Oxford University, 2017 4 / 34 Structure 1: Intro to Econometric Software & Cross-Section Regression 2: Micro-Econometrics: Limited Indep. Variable 3: Macro-Econometrics: Time Series Felix Pretis (Oxford) Econometrics Oxford University, 2017 5 / 34 Motivation Economies high dimensional, interdependent, heterogeneous, and evolving: comprehensive specification of all events is impossible. Economic Theory likely wrong and incomplete meaningless without empirical support Econometrics to discover new relationships from data Econometrics can provide empirical support. or refutation. Require econometric software unless you really like doing matrix manipulation by hand. -
Department of Geography
Department of Geography UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA, SPRING 2019 GEO 4167c section #09A6 / GEO 6161 section # 09A9 (3.0 credit hours) Course# 15235/15271 Intermediate Quantitative Methods Instructor: Timothy J. Fik, Ph.D. (Associate Professor) Prerequisite: GEO 3162 / GEO 6160 or equivalent Lecture Time/Location: Tuesdays, Periods 3-5: 9:35AM-12:35PM / Turlington 3012 Instructor’s Office: 3137 Turlington Hall Instructor’s e-mail address: [email protected] Formal Office Hours Tuesdays -- 1:00PM – 4:30PM Thursdays -- 1:30PM – 3:00PM; and 4:00PM – 4:30PM Course Materials (Power-point presentations in pdf format) will be uploaded to the on-line course Lecture folder on Canvas. Course Overview GEO 4167x/GEO 6161 surveys various statistical modeling techniques that are widely used in the social, behavioral, and environmental sciences. Lectures will focus on several important topics… including common indices of spatial association and dependence, linear and non-linear model development, model diagnostics, and remedial measures. The lectures will largely be devoted to the topic of Regression Analysis/Econometrics (and the General Linear Model). Applications will involve regression models using cross-sectional, quantitative, qualitative, categorical, time-series, and/or spatial data. Selected topics include, yet are not limited to, the following: Classic Least Squares Regression plus Extensions of the General Linear Model (GLM) Matrix Algebra approach to Regression and the GLM Join-Count Statistics (Dacey’s Contiguity Tests) Spatial Autocorrelation / Regression -
The Evolution of Econometric Software Design: a Developer's View
Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 29 (2004) 205–259 205 IOS Press The evolution of econometric software design: A developer’s view Houston H. Stokes Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of Illinois at Chicago, 601 South Morgan Street, Room 2103, Chicago, IL 60607-7121, USA E-mail: [email protected] In the last 30 years, changes in operating systems, computer hardware, compiler technology and the needs of research in applied econometrics have all influenced econometric software development and the environment of statistical computing. The evolution of various representative software systems, including B34S developed by the author, are used to illustrate differences in software design and the interrelation of a number of factors that influenced these choices. A list of desired econometric software features, software design goals and econometric programming language characteristics are suggested. It is stressed that there is no one “ideal” software system that will work effectively in all situations. System integration of statistical software provides a means by which capability can be leveraged. 1. Introduction 1.1. Overview The development of modern econometric software has been influenced by the changing needs of applied econometric research, the expanding capability of com- puter hardware (CPU speed, disk storage and memory), changes in the design and capability of compilers, and the availability of high-quality subroutine libraries. Soft- ware design in turn has itself impacted applied econometric research, which has seen its horizons expand rapidly in the last 30 years as new techniques of analysis became computationally possible. How some of these interrelationships have evolved over time is illustrated by a discussion of the evolution of the design and capability of the B34S Software system [55] which is contrasted to a selection of other software systems. -
International Journal of Forecasting Guidelines for IJF Software Reviewers
International Journal of Forecasting Guidelines for IJF Software Reviewers It is desirable that there be some small degree of uniformity amongst the software reviews in this journal, so that regular readers of the journal can have some idea of what to expect when they read a software review. In particular, I wish to standardize the second section (after the introduction) of the review, and the penultimate section (before the conclusions). As stand-alone sections, they will not materially affect the reviewers abillity to craft the review as he/she sees fit, while still providing consistency between reviews. This applies mostly to single-product reviews, but some of the ideas presented herein can be successfully adapted to a multi-product review. The second section, Overview, is an overview of the package, and should include several things. · Contact information for the developer, including website address. · Platforms on which the package runs, and corresponding prices, if available. · Ancillary programs included with the package, if any. · The final part of this section should address Berk's (1987) list of criteria for evaluating statistical software. Relevant items from this list should be mentioned, as in my review of RATS (McCullough, 1997, pp.182- 183). · My use of Berk was extremely terse, and should be considered a lower bound. Feel free to amplify considerably, if the review warrants it. In fact, Berk's criteria, if considered in sufficient detail, could be the outline for a review itself. The penultimate section, Numerical Details, directly addresses numerical accuracy and reliality, if these topics are not addressed elsewhere in the review. -
Estimating Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using SAS, Stata, LIMDEP, and SPSS*
© 2003-2008, The Trustees of Indiana University Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables: 1 Estimating Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using SAS, Stata, LIMDEP, and SPSS* Hun Myoung Park (kucc625) This document summarizes regression models for categorical dependent variables and illustrates how to estimate individual models using SAS 9.1, Stata 10.0, LIMDEP 9.0, and SPSS 16.0. 1. Introduction 2. The Binary Logit Model 3. The Binary Probit Model 4. Bivariate Logit/Probit Models 5. Ordered Logit/Probit Models 6. The Multinomial Logit Model 7. The Conditional Logit Model 8. The Nested Logit Model 9. Conclusion 1. Introduction A categorical variable here refers to a variable that is binary, ordinal, or nominal. Event count data are discrete (categorical) but often treated as continuous variables. When a dependent variable is categorical, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method can no longer produce the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE); that is, OLS is biased and inefficient. Consequently, researchers have developed various regression models for categorical dependent variables. The nonlinearity of categorical dependent variable models (CDVMs) makes it difficult to fit the models and interpret their results. 1.1 Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables In CDVMs, the left-hand side (LHS) variable or dependent variable is neither interval nor ratio, but rather categorical. The level of measurement and data generation process (DGP) of a dependent variable determines the proper type of CDVM. Binary responses (0 or 1) are modeled with binary logit and probit regressions, ordinal responses (1st, 2nd, 3rd, …) are formulated into (generalized) ordered logit/probit regressions, and nominal responses are analyzed by multinomial logit, conditional logit, or nested logit models depending on specific circumstances. -
Investigating Data Management Practices in Australian Universities
Investigating Data Management Practices in Australian Universities Margaret Henty, The Australian National University Belinda Weaver, The University of Queensland Stephanie Bradbury, Queensland University of Technology Simon Porter, The University of Melbourne http://www.apsr.edu.au/investigating_data_management July, 2008 ii Table of Contents Introduction ...................................................................................... 1 About the survey ................................................................................ 1 About this report ................................................................................ 1 The respondents................................................................................. 2 The survey results............................................................................... 2 Tables and Comments .......................................................................... 3 Digital data .................................................................................... 3 Non-digital data forms....................................................................... 3 Types of digital data ......................................................................... 4 Size of data collection ....................................................................... 5 Software used for analysis or manipulation .............................................. 6 Software storage and retention ............................................................ 7 Research Data Management Plans......................................................... -
Econometrics II Econ 8375 - 01 Fall 2018
Econometrics II Econ 8375 - 01 Fall 2018 Course & Instructor: Instructor: Dr. Diego Escobari Office: BUSA 218D Phone: 956.665.3366 Email: [email protected] Web Page: http://faculty.utrgv.edu/diego.escobari/ Office Hours: MT 3:00 p.m. { 5:00 p.m., and by appointment Lecture Time: R 4:40 p.m. { 7:10 p.m. Lecture Venue: Weslaco Center for Innovation and Commercialization 2.206 Course Objective: The course objective is to provide students with the main methods of modern time series analysis. Emphasis will be placed on appreciating its scope, understanding the essentials un- derlying the various methods, and developing the ability to relate the methods to important issues. Through readings, lectures, written assignments and computer applications students are expected to become familiar with these techniques to read and understand applied sci- entific papers. At the end of this semester, students will be able to use computer based statistical packages to analyze time series data, will understand how to interpret the output and will be confident to carry out independent analysis. Prerequisites: Applied multivariate data analysis I and II (ISQM/QUMT 8310 and ISQM/QUMT 8311) Textbooks: Main Textbooks: (E) Walter Enders, Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 4th Edi- tion, 2015. ISBN-13: 978-1-118-80856-6. Econometrics II, page 1 of 9 Additional References: (H) James D. Hamilton, Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1994. ISBN-10: 0-691-04289-6 Classic reference for graduate time series econometrics. (D) Francis X. Diebold, Elements of Forecasting, South-Western Cengage Learning, 4th Edition, 2006. -
Package 'Ecdat'
Package ‘Ecdat’ November 3, 2020 Version 0.3-9 Date 2020-11-02 Title Data Sets for Econometrics Author Yves Croissant <[email protected]> and Spencer Graves Maintainer Spencer Graves <[email protected]> Depends R (>= 3.5.0), Ecfun Suggests Description Data sets for econometrics, including political science. LazyData true License GPL (>= 2) Language en-us URL https://www.r-project.org NeedsCompilation no Repository CRAN Date/Publication 2020-11-03 06:40:34 UTC R topics documented: Accident . .4 AccountantsAuditorsPct . .5 Airline . .7 Airq.............................................8 bankingCrises . .9 Benefits . 10 Bids............................................. 11 breaches . 12 BudgetFood . 15 BudgetItaly . 16 BudgetUK . 17 Bwages . 18 1 2 R topics documented: Capm ............................................ 19 Car.............................................. 20 Caschool . 21 Catsup . 22 Cigar ............................................ 23 Cigarette . 24 Clothing . 25 Computers . 26 Consumption . 27 coolingFromNuclearWar . 27 CPSch3 . 28 Cracker . 29 CRANpackages . 30 Crime . 31 CRSPday . 33 CRSPmon . 34 Diamond . 35 DM ............................................. 36 Doctor . 37 DoctorAUS . 38 DoctorContacts . 39 Earnings . 40 Electricity . 41 Fair ............................................. 42 Fatality . 43 FinancialCrisisFiles . 44 Fishing . 45 Forward . 46 FriendFoe . 47 Garch . 48 Gasoline . 49 Griliches . 50 Grunfeld . 51 HC.............................................. 52 Heating . 53 -
Limdep Handout
Limdep Handout Full Manuals are available for consultation in the Business Library, in the Economics Department General Office, and in my office. Help from the course T.A. related to accessing and running LIMDEP using NLOGIT via the VCL is available in the Econ Dept 9th Floor Computer Lab. See course web page for times. The TA will show you how to run LIMDEP programs and try to help troubleshoot basic problems, but will not write your programs for you! ▪ General Comments for programming: 1) Use “$” at the end of each command to separate commands; 2) Use semi-colon “;” to separate options within a command; 3) Use “,” to separate variables within a option (eg. dstat; rhs = income, gdp, interest ). How to run the Limdep program? ▪ Left click and select lines you wish to run. You can click “go” (or Ctrl-R or Run button on the top) ▪ If you need to re-run your program, you will often get an error message. To solve this problem, you can do as follow: (1) Select output right click clear all (2) Click “Project” menu on the top and select “Reset” To get you started here are some basic Limdep commands 1. Data Input (1) Text File Input Read; file=”location of file.txt” (eg. file=”a:\data.txt”) ; nobs=# (eg. nobs=34) ; nvars=# (eg. nvars=9) ; names= list of names of variables $ (eg. names=year, interst,…) Notes: You MUST tell Limdep the number of observations and the number of variables that you have in the text file. You also have to provide a list of variable names using the ‘names’ option. -
An Evaluation of ARFIMA (Autoregressive Fractional Integral Moving Average) Programs †
axioms Article An Evaluation of ARFIMA (Autoregressive Fractional Integral Moving Average) Programs † Kai Liu 1, YangQuan Chen 2,* and Xi Zhang 1 1 School of Mechanical Electronic & Information Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China; [email protected] (K.L.); [email protected] (X.Z.) 2 Mechatronics, Embedded Systems and Automation Lab, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA 95343, USA * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-209-228-4672; Fax: +1-209-228-4047 † This paper is an extended version of our paper published in An evaluation of ARFIMA programs. In Proceedings of the International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers & Information in Engineering Conference, Cleveland, OH, USA, 6–9 August 2017; American Society of Mechanical Engineers: New York, NY, USA, 2017; In Press. Academic Editors: Hans J. Haubold and Javier Fernandez Received: 13 March 2017; Accepted: 14 June 2017; Published: 17 June 2017 Abstract: Strong coupling between values at different times that exhibit properties of long range dependence, non-stationary, spiky signals cannot be processed by the conventional time series analysis. The autoregressive fractional integral moving average (ARFIMA) model, a fractional order signal processing technique, is the generalization of the conventional integer order models—autoregressive integral moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Therefore, it has much wider applications since it could capture both short-range dependence and long range dependence. For now, several software programs have been developed to deal with ARFIMA processes. However, it is unfortunate to see that using different numerical tools for time series analysis usually gives quite different and sometimes radically different results.