The Fall 2019 Primetime Preview
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The Fall 2019 Primetime Preview Lisa Hollaender / VP, Director of Content Strategy AuthorFall or 2019 Company Primetime Preview YOUR LOGO 1 Contents Introduction 3 Content is Everywhere 4-9 Primetime Viewing Sources 10 Performance Highlights – 2018/19 11 Schedule Stability 12-13 Programming Trends 14 Genre Breakouts 15 Programming Strategies 16-18 Night-by-Night Schedule Breakouts 19-25 10 Things to Know About the Season Ahead 26 2 Fall 2019 Primetime Preview Introduction As August turns to September and activities change from swimming, sunbathing and barbeques to apple and pumpkin picking, hiking and football, television schedules also morph from summer to fall, tweaked with a combination of debuting new series and returning programs. While announcements were revealed in May, season performances scrutinized in June and new pilots viewed over the rest of the summer, we wanted to put out a “top-of-mind” refresher on what transpired this past season and what’s to come when the 2019-20 season begins next week! Traditionally, when ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, the CW (WB & UPN) and a select amount of advertiser supported and pay cable were the only choices, the Fall season was a time of excitement, anticipation and wonderment. What will be on Fall the network primetime schedules this coming season? Will my favorite show be coming back? Will that cliffhanger be resolved to my 2019 satisfaction? Will I still find it on the same night and at the same time as last year? Will the new programs I saw promos of this summer conflict with what I already watch? VCR’s, DVD’s, DVR’s and On-Demand made their way onto the scene along with more and more advertiser supported and pay cable, diginets and as technology evolved, streaming services. Not only that, but viewing was not relegated to TV’s, it became available on desktops, laptops, tablets and smart phones. Of course that’s not the whole story, but enough for this narrative. Content is now available anytime and anywhere and it doesn’t have to be on a set schedule, but is for those viewers who like it that way. Today, the same enthusiasm has been tempered with an overwhelming amount of choices, content from every direction. Not a bad place to be in, both awesome and intimidating at the same time. Now that all these choices exist to compete with broadcast, new content is available all year round on all fronts. Another positive thing. As long as the advertisers support the Upfronts, the expectation of the Fall season will still exist. With that said, welcome to Fall 2019! Fall 2019 Primetime Preview 3 Content is Everywhere … and can be viewed anywhere Every day more and more content is announced in development at the broadcast and cable networks, Netflix and other top streaming services such as Amazon Prime, Hulu, and CBS All-Access. Broadcast network content creators such as Shonda Rhimes, Ryan Murphy and Kenya Barris defected to the other side last year for more flexibility and creativity (and no “broadcast standards and practices” to contend with), but still have some of their projects running on the networks (GREY’S ANATOMY, STATION 19, 9-1-1, BLACKISH to name a few). Most recently GAME OF THRONES creators David Benioff and D.B. Weiss signed a multi-year production deal, joining them at Netflix. Some of the more influential producers remaining loyal to the networks (or just have longer term contracts) include Steve Levitan (MODERN FAMILY), Chuck Lorre (BIG BANG, YOUNG SHEDLON, the new BOB ♥ ABISHOLA) Lee Daniels (EMPIRE) and Greg Berlanti (too many to name). That’s not to say they won’t have projects at a streaming service too. As we’ll see later on, a huge amount of content does not necessarily carry with it huge ratings success. There is, however, some critical success as is evident by all the Emmy nominations and wins received by Netflix , HBO and others. Also, keep in mind that a good portion of the streaming audience is not only viewing original content, but is binging “classic” and newer “classic” broadcast series. On average, the advertiser supported cable networks cannot compete on the same level as ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX. The top entertainment cable channels based on HH’s and A25-54, such as USA, TNT, TBS, DISCOVERY, HGTV and THE HALLMARK CHANNEL deliver ratings comparable to the CW. There are very few exceptions on the programming front, such as THE WALKING DEAD on AMC, which was the only series this past season that placed among the top 25 of broadcast network shows. While at this time we can compare broadcast to cable, there is not enough streaming information to do the same with Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, et al. However, since the streamers rely on subscriptions and not advertisements, they are not true competitors in that arena. Fall 2019 Primetime Preview 4 Content is Everywhere On ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX & the CW With competition from every side, ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and the CW have introduced an array of new content to their primetime schedules. Rom coms BOB ♥ ABISHOLA (sock salesman meets nurse in hospital) and THE UNICORN (a widower gets back into the dating game) join CBS along with CAROL’S SECOND ACT (Patricia Heaton as a middle-age-empty nester achieving her dream of becoming a Doctor. Diverse sitcoms PERFECT HARMONY (Bradley Whitford leads church choir) and SUNNYSIDE (Ex- councilman Kal Penn’ earns redemption by teaching a group to become American citizens) debut on NBC. BLACK-ISH prequel MIXED-ISH premieres on ABC while FOX’s animated BLESS THE HARTS joins “animation domination.” The law and order corner introduces courtroom drama ALL RISE on CBS, BLUFF CITY LAW (Jimmy Smits) on NBC and STUMPTOWN (graphic novel P.I. Cobie Smulders) on ABC. Thrillers, all in their own way, join ABC (EMERGENCE), CBS (EVIL) and FOX (PRODIGAL SON) line-ups. On the CW, new faces include contemporary takes on the NANCY DREW and BATWOMAN stories. ABC’s present-day version of KIDS SAY THE DARNDEST THINGS, hosted by Tiffany Haddish, will be one of only two new unscripted, non-sports programs in primetime. WWE SMACKDOWN LIVE on FOX is the other. While there are many questions pertaining to the returning series, one of the biggest regards YOUNG SHELDON’s ability to pick up the BIG BANG mantle? Maybe not at the same level, but let’s hope it will be a solid anchor to Thursday. THIS IS US has been promoting its new season all over broadcast and social media, releasing a trailer with the promise of new characters and a lot more flash forwards added to the mix. On the Alternative front we can look for the return of all the reality and competition shows along with the Democratic Debates and the unmasking of the newest MASKED SINGER. Sports is on the rise, so let’s get ready for some football (NFL on Thursday and Sunday), College (on Saturday) and WWE SMACKDOWN LIVE (on Friday). All the networks have been moderating over the last three seasons in the face of increased content competition, however they still deliver the highest ratings/shares/impressions versus even its closest cable competitor. Fall 2019 Primetime Preview 5 Content is Everywhere Streaming Services and Top Cable Competitors The following few pages are a primer on Streaming Services. They include a look at the some of the key up and coming content competitors (Disney Plus, HBO Max, NBC Universal), the main original content providers available for streaming now, and the providers that only offer live streaming and no other services. Some of the notable new and returning advertiser and pay cable series include THE WALKING DEAD, OUTLANDER, AMERICAN HORROR STORY, KILLING EVE, BIG LITTLE LIES, ATLANTA, BARRY, HOMELAND, THE AFFAIR, POSE, CHERNOBYL, ANIMAL KINGDOM AND YELLOWSTONE. On the streaming side, significant content includes, but is not limited to, THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, THE CROWN, THE GOOD FIGHT, THE HANDMAID’S TALE, STRANGER THINGS, 13 REASONS WHY, ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK, WATCHMEN, FLEABAG, MINDHUNTER and WHEN THEY SEE US. 6 Fall 2019 Primetime Preview 6 Content is Everywhere What You Need to Know About Streaming Today § Cord cutting is accelerating, as consumers feel bundles underperform compared to perceived value. § The average household subscribes to 2.1 streaming services. § One-third of consumers still don’t subscribe to any streaming service. § Consumers are open to having four to five streaming services for around $40 a month combined. The limit for any service is $15. § Consumer awareness for new services is still low, although Disney Plus has some early awareness. § Content and value are the biggest drivers of service choice. § 55% of consumers are open to free streaming content with advertising. § Sports and news content will grow in streaming to reach a younger demo. § 45% of consumers say they’ll churn through services for content availability. § A bad user interface can create a huge barrier to consumer acceptance. § New services will sacrifice short-term licensing fees in exchange for long-range DTC subscriptions. Source: The Magid Video Entertainment Pulse Study - May 2019. 7 Fall 2019 Primetime Preview 7 Content is Everywhere Streaming Wars There are currently over 100 sources of streaming video content available in the US, and more are joining every day. The industry dominance and “one-stop shopping” of Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime is being threatened by major players such as Disney Plus, HBO Max, NBC Universal and Apple TV Plus coming into the streaming landscape. Not only are the additional players creating a battle for subscriptions, they’re increasing the competition for both original and licensed content.