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Peterborough Rail Study Final Report PO #1138 Volume 1 February 2010

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Peterborough Rail Study Final Report PO #1138 Volume 1 February 2010 Metrolinx Peterborough Rail Study Final Report PO #1138 Volume 1 February 2010 © Greater Toronto Transportation Authority, 2009 In association with IBI Group Metrolinx Peterborough Rail Study Final Report Metrolinx Suite 900 20 Bay Street Toronto, Ontario M5J 2N8 Canada Metrolinx Peterborough Rail Study Final Report PO #1138 February 2010 Hatch Mott MacDonald 2800 Speakman Drive Mississauga, Ontario L5K 2R7 Canada Tel: 905 855 2010 Fax: 905 855 2607 Pat.O'[email protected] Patrick O'Connor, P. Eng. 260555/0/R1 In association with IBI Group Metrolinx Peterborough Rail Study Final Report Metrolinx Peterborough Rail Study Final Report PO #1138 Issue and Revision Record Rev Date Originator Checker Approver Description R0 12/01/10 HMM/ IBI DG PAO’C 100% Submission R1 05/02/10 HMM/IBI DG PAO’C Final Release This document has been prepared for the titled project or named part thereof and should not be relied upon or used for any other project without an independent check being carried out as to its suitability and prior written authorization of Hatch Mott MacDonald being obtained. Hatch Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for the consequence of this document being used for a purpose other than the purposes for which it was commissioned. Any person using or relying on the document for such other purpose agrees, and will by such use or reliance be taken to confirm their agreement to indemnify Hatch Mott MacDonald for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Hatch Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for this document to any party other than the person by whom it was commissioned. To the extent that this report is based on information supplied by other parties, Hatch Mott MacDonald accepts no liability for any loss or damage suffered by the client, whether through contract or tort, stemming from any conclusions based on data supplied by parties other than Hatch Mott MacDonald and used by Hatch Mott MacDonald in preparing this report. PR260555/0/R1 In association with IBI Group Metrolinx Peterborough Rail Study Final Report List of Contents and Appendices Page Volume 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 5 1 Project Overview ......................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Policy Context .............................................................................................................. 10 1.2.1 2008 Federal Budget & Building Canada Fund .............................................. 10 1.2.2 Places to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe ................... 11 1.2.3 Metrolinx and The Big Move .......................................................................... 11 1.2.4 GO 2020 GO Transit Strategic Plan ................................................................ 12 1.2.5 City of Peterborough Central Area Master Plan .............................................. 13 1.2.6 Central Pickering Development Plan .............................................................. 14 1.2.7 Pickering Airport Lands .................................................................................. 14 1.2.8 Previous Peterborough Rail Studies ................................................................ 15 2 Project Execution ...................................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Project plan of work ..................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Reference Data ............................................................................................................. 16 2.3 Train Schedule Modeling ............................................................................................. 16 2.4 Demand Forecast Modelling ........................................................................................ 17 2.5 Development and Depiction of Service Options .......................................................... 17 2.6 Engineering and Estimating ......................................................................................... 18 3 Description of Existing Rail Corridors and Rail Traffic ........................................................... 19 3.1 The Havelock Subdivision ........................................................................................... 19 3.2 CP Toronto (Agincourt) Freight Yard .......................................................................... 20 3.3 The Belleville Subdivision ........................................................................................... 20 3.4 The Don Branch ........................................................................................................... 20 3.5 The Uxbridge Subdivision ........................................................................................... 20 3.6 The North Toronto Subdivision ................................................................................... 21 4 Assessment of Market Potential ................................................................................................ 28 4.1 Transportation Demand Trends .................................................................................... 28 4.2 Existing Travel Context ............................................................................................... 33 4.3 Tourism Demand .......................................................................................................... 36 PR260555/0 Rev. R1, Page 1 February 5, 2010 In association with IBI Group Metrolinx Peterborough Rail Study Final Report 4.3.1 Niagara Falls Excursion Train ......................................................................... 36 4.4 Future Growth and Travel Demand.............................................................................. 37 4.4.1 Land Use, Population & Employment ............................................................. 37 4.4.2 Future Travel Demand ..................................................................................... 42 4.5 Future Transportation System Performance ................................................................. 45 5 Peterborough Rail Service Concepts ......................................................................................... 49 5.1 Role & Function ........................................................................................................... 49 5.2 Routing and Terminus Options .................................................................................... 49 5.3 Basic Routes – Main Features ...................................................................................... 50 5.3.1 Route A – Havelock Subdivision to Belleville Subdivision (North Side of Toronto Yard) ............................................................................................................... 50 5.3.2 Route B – Havelock Subdivision to Belleville Subdivision (New Connection East of Toronto Yard) .......................................................................................................... 50 5.3.3 Route C – Using New Connection to Uxbridge Subdivision .......................... 51 5.3.4 Comparison of Basic Routes ........................................................................... 52 5.4 Station Identification .................................................................................................... 57 5.4.1 Station Assessment .......................................................................................... 58 5.4.2 Proposed Stations ............................................................................................ 61 5.4.3 Potential Rapid Transit Connections ............................................................... 63 5.5 Operating Concept Scenarios ....................................................................................... 65 5.5.1 Service Level Scenarios .................................................................................. 65 5.5.2 Running Speed and Station Dwell Times ........................................................ 65 5.5.3 Prototype Schedules ........................................................................................ 65 5.5.4 Train Service Schedules .................................................................................. 67 6 Detailed Ridership Forecasts ..................................................................................................... 72 6.1 Scenario Results ........................................................................................................... 72 6.2 Ridership at Horizon Years .......................................................................................... 73 6.3 Access and Egress Modes ............................................................................................ 74 6.4 Diversion from GO Rail Services ................................................................................ 76 6.5 Summerhill Station Assessment ................................................................................... 78 6.6 Land Use Projection Sensitivity ................................................................................... 80 6.7 Weekend Demand .......................................................................................................
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