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2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: MICHIGAN TABLE OF CONTENTS STATE OVERVIEW 2 Turnout Analysis 3 Election Law Impacts 4 Exit Polling 4 U.S. SENATE 9 Media Spending Analysis 11 Geographic Analysis 13 CONGRESS 15 MI-07 15 MI-12 18 MI-14 19 GOVERNOR 19 Media Spending Analysis 22 Geographic Analysis 25 ATTORNEY GENERAL 27 Media Spending Analysis 29 Geographic Analysis 31 SECRETARY OF STATE 32 Media Spending Analysis 33 Geographic Analysis 33 STATE LEGISLATURE 34 State Senate 35 State House 35 Consequences 36 STATE OVERVIEW The 2014 Michigan elections started in earnest nearly two years ago, when Rick Snyder and the Republican legislature rammed through so-called “right-to-work” legislation during the lame duck session in December 2012.1 Democrats and labor leaders in the state immediately began focusing on the 2014 elections as Governor Snyder and the entire legislature would be on the ballot.2 Former Congressman Mark Schauer, who was heavily courted by the Democratic establishment in the state, announced that he would challenge Snyder in May of 2013.3 Democrats also targeted a dozen state House seats in an effort to pick up five seats and win control of the lower chamber.4 Democratic Senator Carl Levin’s retirement in March of 2013 created an open seat that Republicans hoped would lead to a pick-up opportunity.5 Democrats tapped Congressman Gary Peters, while Republicans went with former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the race. Land got off to a strong start in the polls and in fundraising, raising expectations for her campaign.6 Both the Senate and the gubernatorial race drew national attention and heavy outside spending7 but were fought over very different issues. The gubernatorial election was largely seen as a referendum on Snyder’s first term as governor.8 The Senate race was dominated by national issues, and impacted by Land’s “no- show” strategy of virtually disappearing from the campaign trail after a series of gaffes.9 And while the governor’s race remained tight until the very end, Peters pulled away from Land in early September. On election night, Peters defeated Land, 54.6%-41.4%, while Snyder held on to win 51.0%-46.8%. Republicans were able to grow their advantages in both the state Senate and state House as well as maintain their hold on the state’s other constitutional offices, winning both the attorney general’s race 10 and the secretary of state race. 1 Nick Carey and Bernie Woodall, “Right To Work: How Republicans Engineered A Blow to Michigan’s Powerful Unions,” Reuters, December 13, 2012. 2 Paul Egan, Kathleen Gray, Lori Higgins, and David Jesse, “Labor, Democrats ponder next moves after Snyder signs right-to-work laws,” Detroit Free Press, December 11, 2012. 3 Sean Sullivan, “Mark Schauer announces run for governor of Michigan,” Washington Post, May 28, 2013. 4 Chad Livengood, “Democrats target metro Detroit GOP House seats,” Detroit News, October 20, 2014. 5 Cameron Joseph, “Levin retirement leaves Dems defending fourth open seat in 2014 cycle,” The Hill, March 7, 2013. 6 Todd Spangler, “Suddenly, Republican Terri Lynn Land building steam in Senate race,” Detroit Free Press, February 16, 2014. 7 Steve Carmoody, “Michigan’s races for governor, U.S. Senate spending big on TV ads,” Michigan Radio, September 3, 2014. 8 Molly Ball, “From 'One Tough Nerd' to Embattled Governor,” The Atlantic, October 17, 2014. 9 Alexis Levinson, “Why Michigan Never Became Iowa,” Roll Call, October 22, 2014. 10 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan Republicans dominate state elections, grow majorities in House and Senate,” MLive, November 5, 2014. 2 Michigan 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem GOP Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % Party % % % Margin U.S. Senate Gary Peters Terri Lynn Land OPEN (D) 54.6% 41.4% 4.0% 13.2% MI-01 Jerry Cannon Dan Benishek R 45.3% 52.1% 2.6% -6.8% MI-02 Dean Vanderstelt Bill Huizenga R 33.2% 63.6% 3.1% -30.4% MI-03 Bob Goodrich Justin Amash R 39.0% 57.9% 3.1% -18.9% MI-04 Jeff Holmes John Moolenaar OPEN (R) 39.1% 56.5% 4.4% -17.4% MI-05 Dan Kildee Allen Hardwick D 66.8% 31.0% 2.2% 35.8% MI-06 Paul Clements Fred Upton R 40.4% 55.8% 3.7% -15.4% MI-07 Pam Byrnes Tim Walberg R 41.2% 53.5% 5.4% -12.3% MI-08 Eric Schertzing Mike Bishop OPEN (R) 41.9% 54.8% 3.4% -12.9% MI-09 Sander Levin George Brikho D 60.4% 36.1% 3.5% 24.3% MI-10 Chuck Sadler Candice Miller R 29.4% 68.7% 1.9% -39.3% MI-11 Bobby McKenzie Dave Trott OPEN (R) 40.8% 56.1% 3.1% -15.3% MI-12 Debbie Dingell Terry Bowman OPEN (D) 65.0% 31.3% 3.7% 33.7% MI-13 John Conyers Jeff Gorman D 79.7% 16.1% 4.2% 63.6% MI-14 Brenda Lawrence Christina Barr OPEN (D) 77.7% 19.7% 2.6% 58.0% Governor Mark Schauer Rick Snyder R 46.8% 51.0% 2.2% -4.2% Attorney Mark Totten Bill Schuette R 44.2% 52.1% 3.7% -7.9% General Secretary of Godfrey Dillard Ruth Johnson R 42.9% 53.6% 3.5% -10.7% State Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 12:02 p.m. TURNOUT ANALYSIS In 2010, Michigan saw a dramatic drop-off in turnout that exceeded the national average. Voting Eligible Population turnout in Michigan fell nearly 25 points compared to 2008, compared to a 20.5% drop-off nationally. In 2010, that low turnout was part of a Republican wave in the state, with Rick Snyder cruising to a 58.1% to 39.9% win over Democrat Virg Bernero and Republicans winning control of the state legislature as well as every statewide office.11 In 2014 turnout was even lower than during the 2010 wave. Only 42.6% of the VEP cast a ballot, 1.9 points lower than in 2010. Michigan Democrats had pursued an aggressive absentee program in an effort to boost turnout this year, but one in-state political observer said that, while absentee voting appeared to be up, many of those ballots came from people who would have otherwise voted at the polls. MDP Chairman Lon Johnson said that more data would be needed to see what had happened with the absentee program.12 Final numbers for absentee-vote turnout were not available at the time of this publication.13 According to Revsix Data Systems there were approximately 98,000 absentee ballots that were never returned, with 75% of those coming in Detroit City and suburban Wayne County.14 11 “2010 General Election Results,” Michigan Secretary of State, accessed October 12, 2014; Dan Balz, “The GOP takeover in the states,” Washington Post, November 13, 2010. 12 Paul Egan and Todd Spangler, “Michigan Democrats fall short in voter turnout effort,” Detroit Free Press, November 6, 2014. 13 Atlas expert interview, Office of the Michigan Secretary of State, November 6, 2014. 14 Jonathan Oosting, “By the numbers: How Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder won re-election, and how Dem efforts fell short,” MLive, November 6, 2014. 3 Michigan VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 7,229,512 5,001,776 69.2% 61.6% 2010 7,245,895 3,226,088 44.5% 40.9% 2012 7,312,108 4,730,961 64.7% 58.0% 2014 7,389,371 3,150,000 42.6% 36.6% Difference from 2010 143,476 -76,088 -1.9% -4.3% Difference from 2012 77,263 -1,580,961 -22.1% -21.4% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. * 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final. ELECTION LAW IMPACTS In December of 2013, Governor Rick Snyder signed a new law that doubles the amounts individuals and PACs can donate to statewide and legislative candidates. The bill, which was rushed through the Michigan legislature in just two weeks, allows individuals to give up to $6,800 for a candidate for governor or statewide office, $2,000 to a state Senate candidate, and $1,000 to a state House candidate.15 An analysis of campaign finance records by MLive shows that Governor Snyder received more than 800 individual donations that were larger than the old limit, representing more than $2 million in additional contributions. Mark Schauer received just $660,000 more from individuals and PACs than he would have received under the old laws. Republican state House candidates received $760,000 from contributions that would have exceeded the old limits, while Democratic state House candidates received an additional $430,000.16 The powerful DeVos family gave nearly $200,000 more to GOP state Senate and state House candidates than they previously could have under the new law.17 EXIT POLLING The lack of exit polling in 2010 makes it tough to compare Gary Peters and Mark Schauer’s performance to previous Democrats in the state since, with the exception of 2010, most Democrats at the top of the ticket have won comfortably in the state. In 2008 President Obama won 57.4% of the vote while Senator Carl Levin took 62.7% of the vote. In 2012 Obama carried the state again winning 54.2% while Senator Debbie Stabenow won with 58.8% of the vote.18 15 Jonathan Oosting, “Governor signs law to double Michigan campaign contribution limits, codify ‘issue ad’ rules,” MLive, December 27, 2013; Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan GOP-led Senate moves to exempt issue ads, double independent individual campaign donation limits,” MLive, November 14, 2013.
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