Michigan Table of Contents

2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: MICHIGAN TABLE OF CONTENTS

STATE OVERVIEW 2 Turnout Analysis 3 Election Law Impacts 4 Exit Polling 4 U.S. SENATE 9 Media Spending Analysis 11 Geographic Analysis 13 CONGRESS 15 MI-07 15 MI-12 18 MI-14 19 GOVERNOR 19 Media Spending Analysis 22 Geographic Analysis 25 ATTORNEY GENERAL 27 Media Spending Analysis 29 Geographic Analysis 31 SECRETARY OF STATE 32 Media Spending Analysis 33 Geographic Analysis 33 STATE LEGISLATURE 34 State Senate 35 State House 35 Consequences 36

STATE OVERVIEW

The 2014 Michigan elections started in earnest nearly two years ago, when Rick Snyder and the Republican legislature rammed through so-called “right-to-work” legislation during the lame duck session in December 2012.1 Democrats and labor leaders in the state immediately began focusing on the 2014 elections as Governor Snyder and the entire legislature would be on the ballot.2 Former Congressman Mark Schauer, who was heavily courted by the Democratic establishment in the state, announced that he would challenge Snyder in May of 2013.3 Democrats also targeted a dozen state House seats in an effort to pick up five seats and win control of the lower chamber.4

Democratic Senator Carl Levin’s retirement in March of 2013 created an open seat that Republicans hoped would lead to a pick-up opportunity.5 Democrats tapped Congressman Gary Peters, while Republicans went with former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the race. Land got off to a strong start in the polls and in fundraising, raising expectations for her campaign.6 Both the Senate and the gubernatorial race drew national attention and heavy outside spending7 but were fought over very different issues. The gubernatorial election was largely seen as a referendum on Snyder’s first term as governor.8 The Senate race was dominated by national issues, and impacted by Land’s “no- show” strategy of virtually disappearing from the campaign trail after a series of gaffes.9 And while the governor’s race remained tight until the very end, Peters pulled away from Land in early September.

On election night, Peters defeated Land, 54.6%-41.4%, while Snyder held on to win 51.0%-46.8%. Republicans were able to grow their advantages in both the state Senate and state House as well as maintain their hold on the state’s other constitutional offices, winning both the attorney general’s race and the secretary of state race.10

1 Nick Carey and Bernie Woodall, “Right To Work: How Republicans Engineered A Blow to Michigan’s Powerful Unions,” Reuters, December 13, 2012. 2 Paul Egan, Kathleen Gray, Lori Higgins, and David Jesse, “Labor, Democrats ponder next moves after Snyder signs right-to-work laws,” Detroit Free Press, December 11, 2012. 3 Sean Sullivan, “Mark Schauer announces run for governor of Michigan,” Washington Post, May 28, 2013. 4 Chad Livengood, “Democrats target metro Detroit GOP House seats,” Detroit News, October 20, 2014. 5 Cameron Joseph, “Levin retirement leaves Dems defending fourth open seat in 2014 cycle,” The Hill, March 7, 2013. 6 Todd Spangler, “Suddenly, Republican Terri Lynn Land building steam in Senate race,” Detroit Free Press, February 16, 2014. 7 Steve Carmoody, “Michigan’s races for governor, U.S. Senate spending big on TV ads,” Michigan Radio, September 3, 2014. 8 Molly Ball, “From 'One Tough Nerd' to Embattled Governor,” The Atlantic, October 17, 2014. 9 Alexis Levinson, “Why Michigan Never Became Iowa,” Roll Call, October 22, 2014. 10 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan Republicans dominate state elections, grow majorities in House and Senate,” MLive, November 5, 2014.

Michigan 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem GOP Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % Party % % % Margin U.S. Senate Gary Peters Terri Lynn Land OPEN (D) 54.6% 41.4% 4.0% 13.2% MI-01 Jerry Cannon Dan Benishek R 45.3% 52.1% 2.6% -6.8% MI-02 Dean Vanderstelt Bill Huizenga R 33.2% 63.6% 3.1% -30.4% MI-03 Bob Goodrich Justin Amash R 39.0% 57.9% 3.1% -18.9% MI-04 Jeff Holmes John Moolenaar OPEN (R) 39.1% 56.5% 4.4% -17.4% MI-05 Dan Kildee Allen Hardwick D 66.8% 31.0% 2.2% 35.8% MI-06 Paul Clements Fred Upton R 40.4% 55.8% 3.7% -15.4% MI-07 Pam Byrnes Tim Walberg R 41.2% 53.5% 5.4% -12.3% MI-08 Eric Schertzing Mike Bishop OPEN (R) 41.9% 54.8% 3.4% -12.9% MI-09 Sander Levin George Brikho D 60.4% 36.1% 3.5% 24.3% MI-10 Chuck Sadler Candice Miller R 29.4% 68.7% 1.9% -39.3% MI-11 Bobby McKenzie Dave Trott OPEN (R) 40.8% 56.1% 3.1% -15.3% MI-12 Debbie Dingell Terry Bowman OPEN (D) 65.0% 31.3% 3.7% 33.7% MI-13 John Conyers Jeff Gorman D 79.7% 16.1% 4.2% 63.6% MI-14 Brenda Lawrence Christina Barr OPEN (D) 77.7% 19.7% 2.6% 58.0% Governor Mark Schauer Rick Snyder R 46.8% 51.0% 2.2% -4.2% Attorney Mark Totten Bill Schuette R 44.2% 52.1% 3.7% -7.9% General Secretary of Godfrey Dillard Ruth Johnson R 42.9% 53.6% 3.5% -10.7% State Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 12:02 p.m.

TURNOUT ANALYSIS In 2010, Michigan saw a dramatic drop-off in turnout that exceeded the national average. Voting Eligible Population turnout in Michigan fell nearly 25 points compared to 2008, compared to a 20.5% drop-off nationally. In 2010, that low turnout was part of a Republican wave in the state, with Rick Snyder cruising to a 58.1% to 39.9% win over Democrat Virg Bernero and Republicans winning control of the state legislature as well as every statewide office.11 In 2014 turnout was even lower than during the 2010 wave. Only 42.6% of the VEP cast a ballot, 1.9 points lower than in 2010.

Michigan Democrats had pursued an aggressive absentee program in an effort to boost turnout this year, but one in-state political observer said that, while absentee voting appeared to be up, many of those ballots came from people who would have otherwise voted at the polls. MDP Chairman Lon Johnson said that more data would be needed to see what had happened with the absentee program.12 Final numbers for absentee-vote turnout were not available at the time of this publication.13 According to Revsix Data Systems there were approximately 98,000 absentee ballots that were never returned, with 75% of those coming in Detroit City and suburban Wayne County.14

11 “2010 General Election Results,” Michigan Secretary of State, accessed October 12, 2014; Dan Balz, “The GOP takeover in the states,” Washington Post, November 13, 2010. 12 Paul Egan and Todd Spangler, “Michigan Democrats fall short in voter turnout effort,” Detroit Free Press, November 6, 2014. 13 Atlas expert interview, Office of the Michigan Secretary of State, November 6, 2014. 14 Jonathan Oosting, “By the numbers: How Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder won re-election, and how Dem efforts fell short,” MLive, November 6, 2014.

Michigan VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 7,229,512 5,001,776 69.2% 61.6% 2010 7,245,895 3,226,088 44.5% 40.9% 2012 7,312,108 4,730,961 64.7% 58.0% 2014 7,389,371 3,150,000 42.6% 36.6% Difference from 2010 143,476 -76,088 -1.9% -4.3% Difference from 2012 77,263 -1,580,961 -22.1% -21.4% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014.

* 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final.

ELECTION LAW IMPACTS In December of 2013, Governor Rick Snyder signed a new law that doubles the amounts individuals and PACs can donate to statewide and legislative candidates. The bill, which was rushed through the Michigan legislature in just two weeks, allows individuals to give up to $6,800 for a candidate for governor or statewide office, $2,000 to a state Senate candidate, and $1,000 to a state House candidate.15

An analysis of campaign finance records by MLive shows that Governor Snyder received more than 800 individual donations that were larger than the old limit, representing more than $2 million in additional contributions. Mark Schauer received just $660,000 more from individuals and PACs than he would have received under the old laws. Republican state House candidates received $760,000 from contributions that would have exceeded the old limits, while Democratic state House candidates received an additional $430,000.16 The powerful DeVos family gave nearly $200,000 more to GOP state Senate and state House candidates than they previously could have under the new law.17

EXIT POLLING The lack of exit polling in 2010 makes it tough to compare Gary Peters and Mark Schauer’s performance to previous Democrats in the state since, with the exception of 2010, most Democrats at the top of the ticket have won comfortably in the state. In 2008 President Obama won 57.4% of the vote while Senator Carl Levin took 62.7% of the vote. In 2012 Obama carried the state again winning 54.2% while Senator Debbie Stabenow won with 58.8% of the vote.18

15 Jonathan Oosting, “Governor signs law to double Michigan campaign contribution limits, codify ‘issue ad’ rules,” MLive, December 27, 2013; Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan GOP-led Senate moves to exempt issue ads, double independent individual campaign donation limits,” MLive, November 14, 2013. 16 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan's new campaign contribution limits benefiting Republicans more than Democrats,” MLive, October 27, 2014. 17 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan's new campaign contribution limits benefiting Republicans more than Democrats,” MLive, October 27, 2014. 18 Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/3/14.

RACE

In 2012, African Americans represented 16% of the electorate, a four point jump over 2008 and 2006.19 White Michiganders represented significantly less of the vote in 2012 than in 2008, decreasing from 82% to 77%.20 In 2014 African Americans only made up 14% of the electorate, a drop of two points from 2012.21 In 2012, President Obama won 95% of African Americans, a small drop from 2008, when 97% of African Americans supported Obama. The drop-off was much steeper among white voters, where he fell from 51% in 2008 to 44% of the white vote in 2012. Schauer scored even lower, garnering only 40% of the white vote, eight points lower than Peters. Among African Americans Schauer and Peters won 89% and 90% respectively. Democratic performance slipped slightly among African Americans with Peters getting 90% of the African American vote and Schauer getting 89%.22

Michigan Performance and Vote Share by Race Obama Levin Obama Stabenow Peters Schauer Race 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Race (Exit Polls) White 51% 57% 44% 50% 48% 40% African American 97% 94% 95% 94% 90% 89% Hispanic 64% N/A 63% 61% N/A N/A Asian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Vote Share by Race (Exit Polls) White 82% 82% 77% 77% 79% 79% African American 12% 12% 16% 16% 14% 14% Hispanic 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Asian 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% Other 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% Sources: “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008.

GENDER

In 2012, Obama won 50% of men and 57% of women, while Stabenow won 55% of men and 62% of women. In 2008, exit polls indicated that women made up 54% of voters. In 2012, women made up 51% of the vote. In 2014, Republicans, including both Rick Snyder and Terri Lynn Land, made an effort to cut into the gender gap.23

Democrats also campaigned on women’s health issues. Schauer made a statement that social issues would have a role in the race when he selected Oakland County Clerk and former state Rep.

19 “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008. 20 “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008. 21 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:08 p.m. 22 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:08 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008. 23 Fritz Klug, “Terri Lynn Land asks 'Really?' in 1st TV ad about 'war on women' attack,” MLive, April 22, 2014; Linda Mah, “Gov. Rick Snyder touts 'Women Strengthening Michigan' in stop in Kalamazoo on Tuesday,” MLive, October 28, 2014.

Lisa Brown as his running mate. Brown became a liberal hero in the state when she was banned from speaking on the House floor in 2012 for saying the word “vagina” in a debate over anti-abortion legislation. She has also used her role as clerk to challenge the state’s ban on same-sex marriage.24

Peters won 59% of women in 2014, two points better than President Obama in 2012.25 Schauer won women 53%-45% over Snyder.26 Looking solely at white women tells a very different story. Peters still performed well, carrying white women 52%-45%, but Schauer lost white women 45%-54%.27

Exit polling showed that unmarried women made up most of the overall gender gap in the race. Peters won married women 50%-47% but carried unmarried women 74%-24%.28 Schauer won unmarried women 64%-35% but actually lost married women 42%-58%.29 It is significant to note that Schauer’s margin among unmarried women was 21 points smaller than Peters’s.

Michigan Performance and Vote Share by Gender Obama Levin Obama Stabenow Peters Schauer Gender 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 60% 65% 57% 62% 59% 53% Men 52% 58% 50% 55% 50% 41% Vote Share by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 54% 54% 51% 51% 51% 52% Men 46% 46% 49% 49% 49% 48% Sources: “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008.

UNION MEMBERSHIP

Union membership and support have long been keys to Democratic success in Michigan. Despite layoffs, buyouts and passage of a so-called “right-to-work” law which have severely cut into union membership numbers, Michigan still has a significant bloc of voters who identify themselves as being in union households, and their support is critical to Democratic success. In 2012, 16.6% of Michiganders belonged to a union, compared to 11.2% nationally.30 Exit polls from 2012 showed that 28% of the electorate lived in a union household. In 2014 those union numbers held relatively steady as 28% of the voters in the Senate race, and 27% in the governor’s race, lived in a union household.31 Despite the loss of union members in the state, this is roughly the same percentage who identified as union household voters in 2012.

Obama won 67% of the vote from union households in 2008. In 2012, he won 66% of union households. Peters and Schauer both performed extraordinarily well with these voters by winning

24 Kate Abbey-Lambertz, “Lisa Brown just made the Michigan Governor’s race more interesting,” Huffington Post, April 3, 2014. 25 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 26 “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 27 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 28 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 29 “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 30 “Union Membership by State,” unionstats.com, accessed May 14, 2013; “Union Membership 1973-2011,” unionstats.com, accessed May 14, 2013. 31 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.

71%.32 The difference was that, while Peters and Land split voters who didn’t live in union households 48%-48%, Schauer won just 36% of voters who didn’t live in a union household.33

Michigan Performance and Vote Share by Union Affiliation Obama Levin Obama Stabenow Peters Schauer Union Affiliation 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Union Affiliation (Exit Polls) Union Household 67% 71% 66% 71% 71% 71% Vote Share by Union Affiliation (Exit Polls) Union Household 34% 34% 28% 28% 28% 27% Sources: “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008.

PARTISANSHIP (SELF-ID)

Exit polling suggests Democrats in Michigan have a strong and unified base, meaning the difference between a narrow win and a substantial margin of victory seems to be support among independents. No other major demographic characteristic shows enough movement to effect this change in election outcomes among different candidates for different offices.

In 2008, self-identified independents voted for Obama at a rate of 52%.34 In 2012, Obama dropped to 48% support among independents, narrowly losing them to Mitt Romney, who captured 49% of the independent vote.35 In 2014 Peters edged out Land among independents 48%-44%. Schauer didn’t fare nearly as well among independent voters, losing them 34%-61% to Snyder.36

Michigan Performance and Vote Share by Party ID Obama Levin Obama Stabenow Peters Schauer Party ID 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 93% 95% 94% 96% 95% 89% Republican 10% 17% 4% 12% 8% 6% Independent 52% 61% 48% 54% 48% 34% Share of Vote by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 39% Republican 29% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Independent 29% 29% 30% 29% 30% 30% Sources: “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008.

32 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 33 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 34 “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012 35 “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012. 36 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.

AGE

Democrats perform well in Michigan with voters under 29. In 2012, Stabenow won 62% of young voters, and President Obama won 63%. Young voters made up 20% of the electorate in 2008 and 19% of the presidential electorate in 2012. There was significant down-ballot drop-off among these voters in 2012, as just 17% of the Senate electorate was under 29. Young voters made up just 15% of the electorate in 2014.37 Both Peters and Schauer underperformed among young voters, with Peters winning 57% of 18- to 29-year-olds and Schauer winning just 50%.38

However, it is important to note that, tracking across the previous three federal election cycles, there has been a sharp divide in nationwide Democratic performance among young voters, falling along racial lines. In national exit polls of the last three federal election cycles, Democratic performance with young minority voters has remained consistently high, while over the same span, national Democratic performance with young white voters has dropped in successive cycles, down from 54% in 2008 to 45% in 2010, 44% in 2012, and 43% in 2014.39 This cycle, it is likely that the strength of the youth vote in Michigan was, in part, attributable to this trend.

Recently, support for Democrats among seniors has been lower than within other age groups. In 2012, 51% of seniors supported Obama and 56% supported Stabenow. Schauer’s focus on pension taxes was seen as part of a larger effort to target seniors.40 Despite that focus, he won just 46% of the senior vote.41 Peters won 54% of seniors, better than Obama’s performance in either 2008 or 2012.42

Michigan Performance and Vote Share by Age Obama Levin Obama Stabenow Peters Schauer Age 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 68% 71% 63% 62% 57% 50% 30–44 56% 61% 56% 58% 60% 51% 45–64 52% 58% 51% 58% 52% 45% 65+ 53% 63% 48% 56% 54% 46% Vote Share by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 20% 19% 19% 17% 15% 15% 30–44 28% 27% 23% 23% 19% 19% 45–64 37% 37% 41% 42% 45% 45% 65+ 16% 16% 17% 17% 21% 21% Sources: “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Michigan President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008.

37 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m. 38 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m; “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014 39 Surbhi Godsay, Amanda Nover, and Emily Kirby, “The Minority Youth Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, October 2010; “Young Voters in the 2010 Elections,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, November 17, 2010; “National President Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 6, 2012; “National House Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 7, 2014, at 11:48 p.m. 40 Jake Neher, “Seniors Could Play An Especially Big Role In Upcoming Election,” WKAR, October 23, 2014. 41 “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014 at 2:09 p.m. 42 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m

U.S. SENATE

In March of 2013, Democrat Carl Levin, been in the U.S. Senate since 1979, announced that he would not run for re-election.43 Levin’s retirement gave Republicans a chance at a seat that had seemed to be out of reach.44 Both Democrats and Republicans avoided a primary with Democrats settling on Congressman Gary Peters and Republicans backing former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

Land proved to be a prodigious fundraiser and received heavy outside support from the Koch brothers and other leading conservatives.45 Peters made climate change, the protection of the Great Lakes, and other environmental issues -- like the piles of petcoke from Koch facilities that had been illegally stored along the Detroit river -- key issues in his campaign.46 Peters received heavy backing from both the League of Conservation Voters and Tom Steyer’s Next Gen Climate Action.47 Land actually outraised Peters, bringing in $11.9 million through the third quarter to $9.5 million for Peters.48

There were signs early on that Land might be a flawed candidate. Her first TV ad, where she attempted to counter the “War on Women” argument by simply pointing out that she was a woman, was called the worst ad of the cycle by Frank Luntz.49 She followed that with a disastrous performance at the Mackinac Policy Conference in May.50 Land virtually disappeared from the campaign trail, holding only private events, refusing to agree to debates, hoping that a paid media blitz could carry her through the election. Some critics dubbed it a “no-show strategy.”51 The strategy didn’t work. Peters began pulling away in the polls in late September, and on October 7, the NRSC announced they were cutting the TV spots they had reserved in the state.52

While Peters held the lead in most polls, the race remained close into the fall before he pulled away in September.53

43 Rachel Weiner and Aaron Blake, “Michigan Sen. Carl Levin will not seek reelection,” Washington Post, March 7, 2013. 44 Cameron Joseph, “Levin retirement leaves Dems defending fourth open seat in 2014 cycle,” The Hill, March 7, 2013. 45 Cameron Joseph, “NRSC cuts Michigan TV,” The Hill, October 7, 2014; Ashley Woods, “Koch Brothers Group Boosts Michigan Republican’s Senate Run,” Huffington Post, January 14, 2014. 46 Greg Sargent, “A Senate race about…climate change!” Washington Post, May 12, 2014. 47 Andrew Restuccia, “One Democrat's gamble on climate change,” Politico, August 28, 2014 48 “Michigan Senate Race,” Center for Responsive Politics, accessed October 25, 2014. 49 Molly Ball, “Did Republicans Blow the Michigan Senate Race?” The Atlantic, October 14, 2014. 50 Jack Lessenberry, “Terri Lynn Land shows she’s not ready for prime time at Mackinac,” Michigan Radio, May 29, 2014. 51 Steve Benen, “Terri Lynn Land’s ‘no-show strategy,’” MSNBC, September 15, 2014. 52 Cameron Joseph, “NRSC cuts Michigan TV,” The Hill, October 7, 2014; “Michigan Senate: Land vs. Peters,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 13, 2014. 53 “Michigan Senate: Land vs. Peters,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 13, 2014.

Michigan Senate 2014 Public Polling

Michigan Senate Race Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Peters % Land %

Rasmussen (R) 10/20-10/22 1000 LVs 51% 42% Detroit News 10/22-10/24 600 LVs 48% 33% EPIC-MRA 10/26-10/28 600 LVs 50% 35% Public Policy Polling (D) 11/1-11/2 914 LVs 51% 38% Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell 11/2 1224 LVs 52% 40% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 50.4% 37.6% Final Results N/A N/A 54.6% 41.4% Difference N/A N/A 4.2% 3.8% Sources: “Michigan Senate – Land vs. Peters,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 4, 2014; “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

On Election Day Peters won handily, defeating Land with 54.6% of the vote.

Michigan Senate 2014 Results Active Other Total Voters Peters Votes Peters % Land Votes Land % Other Votes Voters % 6,538,733 3,102,354 1,693,301 54.6% 1,283,315 41.4% 125,738 4.0% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “2014 Michigan Registered Voter Counts,” Michigan Secretary of State, October 2014.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

The first ads in the race were run by the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity in January.54 It was a sign of things to come, as outside spending were an important factor in the race. Terri Lynn Land was far and away the biggest spender on broadcast, running 11,291 ads at an estimated cost of $5.6 million. She ran another 938 spots at an estimated cost of $625,260 in conjunction with the NRSC. The Peters campaign ran just 8,494 broadcast spots at an estimated cost of $4.9 million. Peters and the DSCC combined to run another 418 spots and an estimated cost of $537,710.55 The leading outside groups on the conservative side have been Americans for Prosperity and Ending Spending. On the progressive side, Senate Majority PAC, Tom Steyer’s NextGen Climate Action Committee, the DSCC and AFSCME/AFSCME PEOPLE were all actively involved in the race running 4,591, 4,444, 3,636 and 2,044 broadcast spots respectively.56

Michigan Senate Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, January 1 – November 4, 2014

54 CMAG data, accessed October 26, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 55 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 56 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Michigan Senate Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, January 1 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

Peters and his progressive allies hammered Land on environmental issues, using her support from the Koch brothers to tie her to the huge piles of petcoke that had lined the Detroit River.57 Both the Koch Brothers and Tom Steyer, whose NextGen Action Fund spent an estimated $2.8 million on 4,444 broadcast ads supporting Peters, actually became issues in the race.58 They were so prominent in TV spots that, according to the director of the Suffolk University poll in Boston, when voters were asked in September “What’s the first phrase you think of when you hear the name Terri Lynn Land” four percent of them replied unprompted, “Koch brothers, big business.”59

Peters also attacked Land early on for her opposition to the Detroit auto bailout, an issue that was critical for President Obama in his victory in the state in 2012.60 Land tried to modify her position from two years earlier, but the issue resurfaced in October, when Romney held an event with Land in the state.61 According to exit polls, 19% of voters had someone in their household who worked in the auto industry. Those voters overwhelmingly backed Peters 62%-35%.62

When Land ran an auto-biographical spot early in the race highlighting her working class roots by talking about growing up in a trailer park, the Peters campaign responded almost immediately with an ad pointing out that Land and her husband had later bought the same trailer park and evicted all

57 Andrew Restuccia, “Koch oil leftovers fire Michigan race,” Politico, August 30, 2014. 58 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 59 Peter Overby, “A New Campaign Ad Sport: Billionaire Bashing,” NPR, September 17, 2014. 60 David Eggert, “Michigan’s Peters attacks Land on Auto Bailout,” Associated Press, March 4, 2014. 61 Frtiz Klug, “With Mitt Romney visit, questions over Terri Lynn Land's auto bailout stance return,” MLive, October 6, 2014. 62 “Michigan Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:09 p.m.

of the families that lived there.63 The campaign continued to attack Land as someone who was out of touch with middle-class Michigan families.64

As a way of quantifying messaging analysis, Atlas utilized CMAG issue tags to measure the paid media messaging in key races. It is important to note that this analysis quantifies the share of issue messaging across all broadcast advertising in a race, and it is not a reflection of the percentage of ads that featured one type of issue messaging or another.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 24% 36% 30% Health Care 24% 17% 21% Energy/Environment 16% 13% 14% Social Issues 17% 4% 11% Other 19% 30% 24% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

63 “Truth Squad: Ad accusing Terri Lynn Land of evicting families broadly true,” The Center for Michigan, May 20, 2014. 64 Kyle Trygstad, “Terri Lynn Land Targeted in Super PAC Ad in Michigan,” Roll Call, July 12, 2014.

Historically winning Democrats in Michigan have based their path to victory around winning a commanding victory in Wayne County. A winning Democrat should typically aim to win 67% of the vote in Wayne County. They also need to break even in the inner Detroit suburbs (Macomb and Oakland Counties), the Lansing region, and the Flint region. Democrats need to come close to 50% in the rest of the Detroit media market (Outer Detroit). The rest of the state can be hostile to Democrats but they should aim for 45% on the Upper Peninsula, 43% of the vote in Western Michigan and 37% in Northern Michigan.65

Gary Peters exceeded those marks in almost every corner of the state.Peters won 71.8% of the vote in Wayne County. That is just off the 73.0% President Obama won in the county in 2012.66 Peters also performed extremely well in Macomb and Oakland Counties where he won 55.1%, outperforming President Obama in 2012, who won 52.8% of the vote here. Peters took 55.8% of the vote in Oakland, his home county, and 53.9% in Macomb.67 Peters also won 57.7% in Flint-Saginaw and 55.7% in Lansing.68 He won 52.5% of the vote in Outer Detroit, slightly better than President Obama, who got 52.0% in 2012.69

Peters even did well in some of the most Republican parts of the state taking 45.6% of the vote in Northern Michigan and 48.1% on the Upper Peninsula. He did slightly better than President Obama’s 2012 performance in both of these regions.70 His worst performance came on Terri Lynn Land’s home turf of Western Michigan where he got just 44.0% of the vote..71

65 Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 66 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “Key Michigan Races,” Atlas Project Online Toolkit, accessed November 6, 2014; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 67 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “Key Michigan Races,” Atlas Project Online Toolkit, accessed November 6, 2014; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 68 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 69 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 70 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 71 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14.

Peters 2014 Performance by County

CONGRESS MI-07 Republican Tim Walberg first won this seat in Southern Michigan in 2006 but was defeated by Mark Schauer in 2008. He beat Schauer in a rematch in 2010 and did not face a serious Democratic challenger in 2012, but with a DPI of 47.3% in the district, he was seen as potentially vulnerable.72 Former state Rep. Pam Byrnes decided to challenge Walberg and was among the first round of challengers named to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program.73 Walberg said he wanted to return to Congress because he wanted to continue to cut government spending. Byrnes’ ads were often

72 Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/3/14. 73 Ryan J. Stanton, “Pam Byrnes announces she will run against Tim Walberg for Congress,” The Ann Arbor News, July 18, 2013; “DCCC Chairman Israel announces first 35 districts in red to blue program, historic high for women,” DCCC, March 3, 2014.

negative and attacked Walberg for continuing to take a salary after voting to shut down the federal government in 2013.74

Through the third quarter of 2014, Walberg had raised $1.7 million, compared to a little more than $1.3 million for Byrnes. Walberg also had a big advantage in cash on hand in the final quarter of 2014. October financial reports showed him with over $760,000 left in the bank, compared to $98,165 for Byrnes. There was very little outside spending in the race.75

According to an October poll from the MIRS News Agency Walberg had a narrow lead over Byrnes leading 51.5% to 48.5% among likely voters.76

On Election Day Walberg comfortably defeated Byrnes 53.5%-41.2%.77

MI-07 2014 Results Registered Total Byrnes Walberg Other Byrnes % Walberg % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes Votes N/A 222,061 91,403 41.2% 118,715 53.5% 11,943 5.4% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Walberg barely outspent Byrnes on broadcast TV, running 1,947 spots at an estimated cost of $394,600 compared to 1,917 broadcast spots for Byrnes at an estimated cost of $350,170. Byrnes was also aided by the Sierra Club who ran 115 spots on broadcast TV at an estimated cost of $15,360.78

74 CMAG data, accessed October 25, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 75 “Michigan District 07,” Center for Responsive Politics, accessed October 25, 2014. 76 “Walberg leads Byrnes in 7th District Congressional race, but margin is narrow,” WTVB, October 15, 2014. 77 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m. 78 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

MI-07 Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, January 1 – November 4, 2014

MI-07 Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, January 1 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING Byrnes called Walberg “the worst kind of politician” and attacked him for voting to allow oil companies to drill in the Great Lakes and for being too close to big business. She also blasted him for taking his congressional salary after voting for the government shutdown. Walberg attacked Byrnes for wasting taxpayer dollars and for being too liberal for the district. He also ran positive spots highlighting his conservative plans to improve schools and create jobs.79 MI-12 In February 2014, Democratic Representative John Dingell, the longest-serving member of Congress in American history, announced that he would not run for another term.80 A few days later, Dingell’s wife Debbie, who serves on the Wayne County Board of Governors and is a top Democratic strategist in the state, announced that she would run for the seat.81 State Sen. Rebekah Warren announced in March that she would not challenge Dingell, giving Dingell a chance of winning the Democratic nomination without facing a serious opponent.82 Dingell raised $1 million and easily defeated longshot candidate Raymond Mullins who raised less than $6,000.83

Dingell was the heavy favorite against Republican Terry Bowman, an assembly line worker at a Ford plant in Ypsilanti.84 She outraised Bowman by more than 40 to one, bringing in $1.4 million to $42,541 for Bowman.85

On Election Day Dingell won a convincing victory taking 65.0% of the vote.

MI-12 2014 Results Registered Total Dingell Bowman Other Dingell % Bowman % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes Votes N/A 204,981 133,323 65.0% 64,112 31.3% 7,546 3.6% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

According to CMAG there were no broadcast ads run in the race.86

79 CMAG data, accessed October 25, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 80 John Bresnahan and Alex Isenstadt, “John Dingell, longest serving Congressman to retire,” Politico, February 24, 2014. 81 Paul Kane and Sean Sullivan, “Debbie Dingell to run for House seat being vacated by John Dingell,” Washington Post, February 25, 2014. 82 Ryan Stanton, “Rebekah Warren not running for Congress: ‘My heart is in Lansing right now’,” March 7, 2014. 83 Ben Freed, “Debbie Dingell wins Democratic primary in bid to fill husband's congressional seat,” MLive, August 5, 2014. 84 Ben Freed, “Debbie Dingell wins Democratic primary in bid to fill husband's congressional seat,” MLive, August 5, 2014; Shoam Geva, “GOP challenger Terry Bowman aims to take Dingell House seat,” Michigan Daily, October 23, 2014. 85 “Michigan District 12,” Center for Responsive Politics, accesed October 26, 2014. 86 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

MI-14 Gary Peters’ open seat in MI-14, a heavily gerrymandered seat that includes both part of the City of Detroit and some of its wealthiest suburbs, attracted a crowded Democratic primary field. Candidates for the seat included former Congressman Hansen Clarke, Southfield Mayor and 2010 lieutenant governor candidate Brenda Lawrence, state Rep. Rudy Hobbs, and Burgess Foster. In the 2012 primary, Clarke finished second to Peters, while Lawrence finished third.

In 2014, Hobbs racked up endorsements from Senator Carl Levin, Congressman Sandy Levin and a string of labor endorsements including UAW, AFSCME Council 25, AFL-CIO of Michigan, the MEA, AFT, and the Detroit regional Chamber of Commerce.87 Lawrence won the backing of EMILY’s List, which spent over $340,000 on a direct mail program aimed at women voters in the district.88

Lawrence narrowly defeated Hobbs, with Clarke finishing in third. The district is heavily Democratic, making Lawrence the overwhelming favorite in November. She faced Republican Christina Barr and won a convincing victory, taking 77.7% of the vote.89

MI-14 2014 Results Registered Total Lawrence Other Lawrence % Barr Votes Barr % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes N/A 212,582 165,116 77.7% 41,801 19.7% 5,665 2.6% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

Hobbs went on broadcast TV during the primary running 362 spots at an estimated cost of $215,000. All of his ads were positive.90 Write-in candidate Wesley Pruden was the only candidate to go on broadcast TV during the general election. He ran 2,150 spots.91 GOVERNOR

Republican Rick Snyder handily defeated Democrat Virg Bernero in 2010, winning with 58.1% of the vote to Bernero’s 39.9%.92 Shortly after the 2012 elections, Public Policy Polling showed Snyder defeating a generic Democrat 47%-41% and described him as someone who is “favored for another term, at least for now.”93 In December of 2012, the whole race changed when Michigan Republicans

87 “Endorsements,” Rudy Hobbs for Congress, accessed October 30, 2014. 88 “EMILY’s List Congratulates Brenda Lawrence on Advancing Through The Primary for Michigan’s 14th Congressional District,” EMILY’s List, August 6, 2014. 89 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m. 90 CMAG data, accessed October 25, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 91 CMAG data, accessed November 7, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 92 “2010 General Election Results,” Michigan Secretary of State, accessed October 12, 2014 93 “An early look at the 2014 Governor landscape,” Public Policy Polling, November 12, 2012.

pushed through so-called “right-to-work” legislation during a lame duck session.94 Snyder’s job performance ratings plummeted, and his approve/disapprove numbers went from 47%-37% to 38%- 56% in just a month.95 In May of 2013, former Democratic Congressman Mark Schauer announced he would challenge Snyder.96

While Snyder was regarded as the early favorite in the race, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “Likely Republican” to “Toss Up” in late June 2013.97 Schauer took longer to close the gap in the polls, but from mid-July to mid-September of 2014, most polls to showed the race within the margin of error.98 Snyder faced criticism from Republicans for not taking the challenge from Schauer seriously early in the race.99 Snyder still managed to bring in, more than he raised in his landslide victory in 2010.100

Political reporter Susan Demas cited two key problems for Snyder. The first was that there were a number of Michigan voters who had supported Snyder in 2010 thinking he was a moderate, only to see him move the state farther to the right that any governor in recent memory.101

Another common criticism was that Snyder oversold the state’s economic recovery. For most of the election cycle, he called Michigan the “comeback state,” and his first ad, which ran during the 2014 Super Bowl, called him the “comeback kid.”102 The message failed to resonate with Michiganders, who felt that things were getting better in the state, but that they weren’t seeing any of the benefits.103 Schauer ran a campaign that catered to his base, saying that Snyder was only concerned with his wealthy friends at the expense of middle-class workers and Michigan schools.104 Schauer attacked Snyder for cutting education funding and raising taxes on pensions to pay for a tax cut for big business.105 While Schauer said that he likely would have authorized a bankruptcy for Detroit but criticized Snyder for using an Emergency Manager in the city and for reducing pensions for the city’s workers.106 Snyder eventually changed his messaging to say that Michigan is “on the road to recovery,” with one of his ads even saying, “You might not feel it yet, but you will soon.”107

Polls showed Snyder as the early favorite, but Schauer was able to close the gap by the early fall. In October, state-based polls began to show Snyder pulling away, while national polling firms showed that the race remained close.108

94 John Flesher and Jeff Karoub, “Michigan Right-To-Work Bill Approved By Republican-Dominated House,” Associated Press, December 11, 2012. 95 David Eggert, “Poll: Gov. Rick Snyder's support drops; voters oppose right-to-work law,” MLive, December 18, 2012. 96 Paul Egan, “Democrat Mark Schauer to challenge Gov. Rick Snyder in 2014,” Detroit Free Press, May 28, 2013. 97 “Michigan Governor 2014,” Cook Political Report, accessed October 15, 2014. 98 “Michigan Governor – Snyder vs, Schauer,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 15, 2014. 99 Molly Ball, “From 'One Tough Nerd' to Embattled Governor,” The Atlantic, October 17, 2014. 100 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder outspends Mark Schauer, surpasses his own totals from 2010,” MLive, October 24, 2014. 101 Susan J. Demas, “If Gov. Rick Snyder were a moderate, his re-election wouldn't be in doubt,” MLive, October 10, 2014. 102 Jonathan Oosting, “Comeback kid? Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder's Super Bowl ad prompts mixed reviews, some confusion,” February 4, 2014. 103 “Governor Snyder tweaks ‘comeback’ message,” Associated Press, October 13, 2014. 104 Mark Lammi, “Democrats rally behind Schauer,” Livingston Daily, October 11, 2014. 105 David Eggert, “Snyder, Schauer at odds over recovery, major laws,” The Fresno Bee, October 29, 2014. 106 Chad Livengood, “Snyder, Schauer differ on Rx for ailing cities, schools,” Detroit News, October 6, 2014. 107 Jonathan Oosting, “Snyder talks 'road to recovery' in new campaign ad: 'You might not feel it yet, but you will soon,” MLive, September 2, 2014. 108 “Michigan Governor - Snyder vs. Schauer,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 25, 2014.

Michigan Governor 2014 Public Polling

Michigan Governor Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Schauer % Snyder %

YouGov 10/16-10/23 2394 LVs 45% 44% Rasmussen (R) 10/20-10/22 1000 LVs 46% 49% Detroit News 10/22-10/24 600 LVs 40% 45% EPIC-MRA 10/26-10/28 600 LVs 43% 45% Public Policy Polling (D) 11/1-11/2 914 LVs 45% 46% Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell 11/3 1310 LVs 47% 49% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 44.3% 46.3% Final Results N/A N/A 46.8% 51.0% Difference N/A N/A 2.5% 4.7% Sources: “Michigan Governor – Snyder vs. Schauer,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 4, 2014; “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

On Election Day, Snyder survived, winning 51.0% to Schauer’s 46.8%.Snyder’s margin was the narrowest for in a gubernatorial election since Jennifer Granholm beat Dick Posthumus in 2002 and the narrowest margin for an incumbent since 1990.109

109 Jonathan Oosting, “By the numbers: How Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder won re-election, and how Dem efforts fell short,” MLive, November 6, 2014.

Michigan Governor 2014 Results Registered Total Schauer Snyder Other Schauer % Snyder Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes Votes 6,538,733 3,137,941 1,469,375 46.8% 1,598,922 51.0% 69,644 2.2% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “2014 Michigan Registered Voter Counts,” Michigan Secretary of State, October 2014.

Snyder started his ad campaign early with a 60 second spot that ran statewide in September 2013.110 The ad focused on Snyder’s “One Tough Nerd” image while Michigan was “back on a solid foundation.” Both national governors associations jumped into the race early, with the DGA going on the air in January and the RGA going on the air in March.111 Almost all of the spending in the race was by each individual campaign, the DGA and the RGA.112

Snyder outspent Schauer on broadcast TV, running 12,884 spots at an estimated cost of $8.5 million to Schauer’s 6,205 spots at an estimated cost of $3.5 million. The DGA helped close the gap by running 18,791 broadcast spots at an estimated cost of $10.0 million, countered by 15,266 broadcast spots at an estimated cost of $7.3 million from the RGA. The Michigan Republican Party spent an estimated $2.6 million on 4,027 broadcast spots.113

110 CMAG data, accessed October 26, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 111 CMAG data, accessed October 20, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 112 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 113 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Michigan Governor Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, January 1, 2013 – November 4, 2014

Michigan Governor Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, January 1, 2013 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

The Michigan governor’s race quickly became a referendum on Snyder’s first four years, with the DGA going on the air early with negative attacks. Their first ad featured Mark Schauer attacking Snyder for cutting education funding.114 The Schauer campaign and the DGA continued to hammer Snyder for cutting education spending and for raising pension taxes while cutting taxes for big businesses in the state.115 The attacks over the pension tax increase were seen as an attempt to improve his performance among seniors but according to exit polls Schauer lost seniors 46%- 53%.116

Snyder tried to sell himself as the “Comeback Kid” by touting Michigan’s recovery, but most people in the state simply weren’t buying his message. By September, he was forced to put out an ad saying, “We’re on the road to recovery for every Michigander. You might not feel it yet, but you will soon.”117 Republicans also attacked Schauer as a “career politician” and over his vote for Obamacare.118

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 76% 51% 62% Other 5% 23% 15% Education 19% 11% 15% Environment/Energy 0% 3% 2% Health Care 0% 12% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

114 Emily Scultheis, “Democrats slam Michigan governor in new ad,” Politico, January 28, 2014. 115 Chris Christoff, “Pension Tax Bites Michigan’s Snyder in Re-Election Bid,” Bloomberg, September 3, 2014. 116 “Michigan Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014 at 2:09 p.m. 117 Jonathan Oosting, “Snyder talks 'road to recovery' in new campaign ad: 'You might not feel it yet, but you will soon',” MLive, September 2, 2014. 118 Chad Livengood, “Michigan GOP targets Schauer in new TV ad,” Detroit News, October 6, 2014.

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

Schauer narrowly missed this path to victory. He got 63.8% of the vote in Wayne County,and performed relatively well in both the Lansing and Flint markets. He narrowly won the Lansing region with 49.5% of the vote and won Flint-Saginaw with 51.4% of the vote.120 In 2012 Obama carried those regions with 53.6% of the vote and 54.9% respectively.121

119 Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 120 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 121 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14.

Schauer won 47.2% on the Upper Peninsula, almost identical to the 47.7% President Obama got in the region in 2012. He did not fare as well in the state’s other conservative areas, winning just 37.5% of the vote in Western Michigan, 40.8% of the vote in Northern Michigan and 44.7% of the vote in Outer Detroit. Obama won 45.6%, 43.7% and 52.0% in those three regions. Some of Schauer’s steep drop off in Outer Detroit could be a result of his poor performance in the heavily Democratic Washtenaw County, home to Ann Arbor. While Obama carried the county with 67.3% of the vote in 2012, Schauer won the county with just 56.5% of the vote. 122

The region where Schauer underperformed the most was in Macomb and Oakland counties, winning just 43.3% of the vote in these suburban counties combined. He won 42.8% of the vote in Oakland and 44.0% in Macomb. Obama won 52.8% of the vote here in 2012 — 53.6% of the vote in Oakland and 51.5% in Macomb.123

Schauer 2014 Performance by County

122 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14. 123 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Data Shop module, accessed 11/6/14.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette had a long career in politics, starting with his election to the U.S. House in 1984 at the age of 31. He lost a U.S. Senate race to Carl Levin in 1990. Schuette then served as the director of the Michigan Department of Agriculture, as a member of the state Senate, and on the Michigan Court of Appeals.124 In 2010, he was elected attorney general, defeating Democrat David Leyton 52.6% to 43.5%.125 This year, he faced off against Democrat Mark Totten. Totten is a former prosecutor who now teachers at the MSU school of law.126

Schuette has been overtly political in his role as attorney general; he attempted to strike down a union-led ballot measure that would have enshrined collective bargaining in the state constitution, worked to allow a version of the state’s Emergency Fiscal Manager law be reinstated even after it was defeated at the polls, and failed to prosecute GOP House Speaker Jase Bolger for allegedly trying to rig an election.127 Schuette is also a leading defender of Michigan’s ban on marriage equality.128 While Schuette has said that he and Snyder agree “on about 95% of issues,” one major split came during the Detroit bankruptcy fight. Schuette tried to protect police and firefighter pensions that were reduced as part of the “Grand Bargain” Snyder negotiated to end Detroit’s bankruptcy.129

Totten said he was inspired to run for the job because Schuette “wasn’t doing his job” and that he wants to be the Attorney General for all of the people of Michigan.130 While Totten attacked Schuette for being too focused on his right-wing causes, Schuette accused the Democrat of inflating his resume.131

Schuette was able to raise $3.6 million for his re-election campaign while Totten only brought in just over $670,000.132

124 “Biography of Attorney General Bill Schuette,” Michigan Attorney General, accessed March 19, 2013. 125 “Attorney General 4 Year Term (1) Position,” Michigan Department of State, accessed March 19, 2013. 126 Leonard Fleming, “Michigan's attorney general race feisty till end,” Detroit News, October 29, 2014. 127 “Attorney Nickelhoff details why Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette is wrong for attacking working families,” Protect Working Families, August 8, 2012; Steve Carmody, “Michigan’s Emergency Financial Manager law survives legal challenge,” Michigan Radio, December 5, 2012; Paul Egan, “Detective believes Bolger, Schmidt conspired to commit perjury in state House scandal, records show,” Detroit Free Press, August 20, 2012. 128 Emily Lawler, “Coffee-pouring Attorney General Bill Schuette says upcoming election is his 'job interview',” MLive, October 23, 2014. 129 Emily Lawler, “Coffee-pouring Attorney General Bill Schuette says upcoming election is his 'job interview',” MLive, October 23, 2014. 130 Emily Lawler, “Attorney General candidate Mark Totten promises to be lawyer 'for the people',” MLive, October 23, 2014. 131 Kathleen Grey, “The race for AG: Bill Schuette versus Mark Totten,” Detroit Free Press, October 12, 2014. 132 Paul Egan, “Snyder and fellow GOP incumbents have financial edge,” Detroit Free Press, October 24, 2014.

Michigan Attorney General 2014 Public Polling

Michigan Attorney General Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Totten % Schuette %

Detroit News 10/22-10/24 600 LVs 34% 38% EPIC-MRA 10/26-10/28 600 LVs 35% 47% Public Policy Polling (D) 11/1-11/2 914 LVs 37% 47% Average N/A N/A 35.3% 44.0% Final Results N/A N/A 44.2% 52.1% Difference N/A N/A 8.9% 8.1% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “Schuette leads, but attorney general’s race tightens,” Detroit News, October 27, 2014; “Poll: Absentees put Snyder, Schauer race in dead heat,” Detroit News, October 29, 2014; “Michigan Survey Results,” Public Policy Polling, 914 likely voters, November 1–2, 2014.

On Election Day Schuette won a second term, defeating Totten 52.1%-44.2%.

Michigan Attorney General 2014 Results Registered Total Schuette Other Totten Votes Totten % Schuette % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes 6,538,733 3,059,006 1,350,920 44.2% 1,594,595 52.1% 113,491 3.7% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “2014 Michigan Registered Voter Counts,” Michigan Secretary of State, October 2014.

Bill Schuette was able to dominate spending in the race, running an estimated 2,559 spots on broadcast TV, compared to just 591 spots for Totten and the Democratic State Central Committee. Outside spending in the race was limited to a conservative outside group called the Michigan Advocacy Trust that ran 1,477 spots on behalf of Schuette.133

Michigan Attorney General Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, January 1 – November 4, 2014

Michigan Attorney General Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, January 1 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

Advertising in the race was overwhelmingly positive. Schuette’s ads were focused on his work to crack down on sex trafficking and restore funding for rape kit testing, while Totten used his ads to spotlight his work as a prosecutor. The only negative ads were run by the Democratic State Central Committee, who attacked Schuette for pursuing an “extreme personal agenda” and an ad from the Michigan Advocacy Trust saying that Totten inflated his work experience.134

134 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 135 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Other 32% 71% 62% Social Issues 46% 17% 24% Health Care 21% 5% 9% Economy 0% 7% 6% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Totten ran behind Gary Peters in every region of the state, and behind Mark Schauer in every region except the Inner Suburbs. Totten won 43.6% in those key suburban counties, slightly better than the 43.3% of the vote Schauer received there.136

Totten 2014 Performance by County

136 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

SECRETARY OF STATE

In 2010, Ruth Johnson narrowly defeated Democrat Jocelyn Benson 50.7% to 45.2%.137 Democrats struggled to find a candidate to challenge her for re-election, but in August 2014, Detroit civil rights attorney Godfrey Dillard announced that he would take on Johnson.138 Both candidates said they wanted to make voting easier. Johnson said she supports extending the absentee voting window to 45 days and eliminating the need for an excuse to vote absentee in the state.139 Dillard’s platform went even farther. He wanted to allow in-person early voting, no-excuse absentee voting, and same- day registration. He also pushed for voting “supercenters” in urban areas that would have voting booths and parking places.140 Dillard has said that Johnson’s move to put more options online is not a “panacea” and fails to make voting easier for many Michiganders.141

Johnson outraised Dillard nearly 10-to-1 over the course of the cycle, bringing in $894,000 to just over $120,000 for Dillard.142

Michigan Secretary of State 2014 Public Polling

137 “Secretary of State 4 Year Term (1) Position,” Michigan Department of State, accessed March 19, 2013. 138 Paul Egan, “Detroit Democrat Godfrey Dillard drops AG bid, will run for secretary of state,” Detroit Free Press, August 1, 2014. 139 Emily Lawler, “Ruth Johnson: Kayaking, motorcycle-riding Secretary of State runs for 2nd term,” MLive, October 22, 2014. 140 Emily Lawler, “Godfrey Dillard: Longtime civil rights lawyer sets sights on Secretary of State position,” MLive, October 22, 2014. 141 Emily Lawler, “Godfrey Dillard: Longtime civil rights lawyer sets sights on Secretary of State position,” MLive, October 22, 2014. 142 Paul Egan, “Snyder and fellow GOP incumbents have financial edge,” Detroit Free Press, October 24, 2014.

Michigan Secretary of State Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Dillard % Johnson %

Detroit News 10/22-10/24 600 LVs 33% 41% EPIC-MRA 10/26-10/28 600 LVs 37% 41% Public Policy Polling (D) 11/1-11/2 914 LVs 38% 46% Average N/A N/A 36.0% 42.7% Final Results N/A N/A 42.9% 53.6% Difference N/A N/A 6.9% 10.9% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “Schuette leads, but attorney general’s race tightens,” Detroit News, October 27, 2014; “Poll: Absentees put Snyder, Schauer race in dead heat,” Detroit News, October 29, 2014; “Michigan Survey Results,” Public Policy Polling, 914 likely voters, November 1–2, 2014.

On Election Day Johnson easily won a second term defeating Dillard 53.6%-42.9%.

Michigan Secretary of State 2014 Results Registered Total Dillard Johnson Other Other Dillard % Johnson % Voters Voters Votes Votes Votes % 6,538,733 3,062,400 1,313,941 42.9% 1,640,267 53.6% 108,192 3.5% Sources: “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.; “2014 Michigan Registered Voter Counts,” Michigan Secretary of State, October 2014.

According to CMAG there were no broadcast media ads run in the Michigan Secretary of State’s race.143

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dillard ran well behind both Peters and Schauer in every region of the state. He did run ahead of Mark Totten in Northern Michigan (35.3% to 33.8%) and in Flint-Saginaw (46.8%-43.9%).144

143 CMAG data, accessed November 6, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 144 “Michigan: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

Dillard 2014 Performance by County

STATE LEGISLATURE

The entire state legislature was up for election in 2014 in Michigan. Republicans control both chambers, with a 26-12 edge in the state Senate and a 59-50 majority in the state House. Democrats ran an aggressive campaign in an effort to win five Republican seats and take control of the state House to provide a check on GOP power in Lansing.145 Democrats actually lost ground in both the House and Senate, preserving the Republican supermajority in the state Senate and their majority in the state House146

145 “Parties vie for control of state House,” Associated Press, October 13, 2014. 146 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan Republicans dominate state elections, grow majorities in House and Senate,” MLive, November 5, 2014.

STATE SENATE The Michigan state Senate is made up of 38 members from single-member districts, each elected to four-year terms. Republicans control the chamber, 26 to 12.147 All senators are elected in the same year as the governor and are limited to two terms; consequently, all 38 seats were on the ballot in 2014. There were no state Senate races on the ballot in 2012, so these were the first races under the state’s new GOP-drawn maps. Republicans were able to pick up one new seat expanding their majority to 27-11. That is the largest majority either party has had in the body since 1954.148 Arlan Meekoff, one of the sponsors of the state’s so-called “right-to-work” law was named majority leader, replacing the term-limited Randy Richardville.149

Historical Partisanship of Michigan State Senate150

STATE HOUSE The Michigan House consists of 110 members from single-member districts. State Representatives are elected to two-year terms and are limited to three terms. In 2010, Republicans picked up 21 seats to win a 63-seat majority; Democrats held only 47 seats after the election. In 2012, Democrats were able to win back some of those GOP gains, picking up five seats, but Republicans still controlled the body, holding a 59-to-51 edge.151 State Rep. John Olumba, considered one of the most liberal members of the legislature, left the Democratic caucus and became an independent in early 2013.152 Democrats targeted a dozen races across the state, including four GOP incumbents in Metro Detroit.153

147 “Governor and Partisan Splits,” Stateside Associates, accessed August 12, 2014. 148 Jonathan Oosting, “Meet Michigan's next Senate Majority Leader: Arlan Meekof to take reins of Republican supermajority,” November 6, 2014. 149 David Eggert, “Michigan lawmakers pick new leaders of Republican-controlled House, Senate,” Associated Press, November 6, 2014. 150 “State Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, accessed November 7, 2014. 151 Paul Egan, “Republicans hold on to state House, but with smaller margin,” Detroit Free Press, November 7. 2012. 152 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan state Rep. John Olumba leaves Democratic Caucus, declares himself Independent,” MLive, February 19, 2013. 153 Chad Livengood, “Democrats target metro Detroit GOP House seats,” Detroit News, October 20, 2014.

In spite of the aggressive campaign by Democrats to take back the House, Republicans managed to pick up two open seats and defeat two first-term Democratic legislators.154 They will head into the 2015 session with a 63-47 edge. Kevin Cotter has been named as the new House speaker, replacing Jase Bolger, who was term-limited.155

Historical Partisanship of Michigan State House

CONSEQUENCES Governor Snyder has already said that his victory and the Republican gains in the legislature mean that “we have a strong mandate to continue the reinvention of Michigan.”156 Snyder went on to say that, while he is still working out his priorities for 2015, he wants to find a solution to increasing road funding in the state during the upcoming lame duck session.157 Snyder also said that the state would continue to defend its ban on gay marriage.158

While other Republicans in the state are clearly emboldened, both the new House speaker and the new Senate majority leader sounded cautious notes. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof said that he recognizes that Republicans represent a broad coalition and not all of his members come from conservative districts.159 The new House speaker, Kevin Cotter, pledged that his caucus would not “take up issues willy-nilly.”160

154 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan Republicans dominate state elections, grow majorities in House and Senate,” MLive, November 5, 2014. 155 David Eggert, “Michigan lawmakers pick new leaders of Republican-controlled House, Senate,” Associated Press, November 6, 2014. 156 Jonathan Oosting, “Gov. Rick Snyder: GOP victories a 'mandate' for Michigan, plans lame-duck push on road funding,” MLive, November 5, 2014. 157 Jonathan Oosting, “Gov. Rick Snyder: GOP victories a 'mandate' for Michigan, plans lame-duck push on road funding,” MLive, November 5, 2014. 158 Jonathan Oosting, “Michigan Gov. Snyder says defending gay marriage ban a duty, 'not a matter of personal preference',” MLive, November 6, 2014. 159 David Eggert, “Michigan lawmakers pick new leaders of Republican-controlled House, Senate,” Associated Press, November 6, 2014. 160 David Eggert, “Michigan lawmakers pick new leaders of Republican-controlled House, Senate,” Associated Press, November 6, 2014.