BICOM Briefing

The Netanyahu investigations: details, process and possibilities

February 2018 Key points partner, Australian billionaire James Packer, has also given testimony, with media • Israeli police have formally submitted their reports suggesting he shared costs for gifts. recommendation to the Attorney General According to police, the illegal gifts that that Prime Minister be Netanyahu allegedly received amount to charged with bribery, fraud and breach of 1.25m shekels, or £300,000. trust in two cases. • The police have been investigating whether • Netanyahu denies all charges and is the gifts constitute breach of trust (the receipt determined to remain in office. He appears of gifts as a public official is against the under no immediate pressure from his law) and bribery. It has been suggested that coalition partners to resign, at least until Netanyahu was acting in Milchan’s interests there is a decision by the Attorney General in a deal to sell an Israeli TV Channel (AG) about whether to indict, which will take (Channel 10) as well as helping him get months. a US visa, after Milchan’s was rescinded. Netanyahu is also alledged to have pursued • If the AG eventually issues an indictment a deal linked to Indian businessman Ratan – by no means a certainty – it could end Tata, who was Milchan’s business partner, Netanyahu’s premiership, but the complex and supported a law to extend tax breaks legal and political processes will take time to given to Israelis returning to live in the play out. country after ten years (such as Milchan). Then-finance minister, and current Yesh Atid party leader, Yair Lapid reportedly refused What are the police recommendations? to support the law and has testified that the Prime Minister pressured him to do so. • After a lengthy investigation Israeli police are Netanyahu claims that the gifts received were recommending that Netanyahu be charged from personal friends, with no relation to his with bribery, fraud and breach of trust role as prime minister. Netanyahu’s former relating to two separate cases. Chief of Police Chief of Staff and close aide Ari Harrow has Roni Alsheikh has given Attorney General become state witness in the case. The police the recommendations also recommended that Milchan be charged of the Lahav-443 fraud and corruption with bribery. investigations unit. Case 2000: Arnon “Noni” Mozes and Yediot Ahronot

What cases are covered in the • The Police have recommended that recommendations? Netanyahu be charged with bribery, fraud Case 1000: gifts affair and breach of trust.

• The Police have recommended that • Netanyahu is accused of bribing Yediot Netanyahu be charged with bribery, fraud Ahronot owner Arnon “Noni” Mozes for and breach of trust. better media coverage, by offering to restrict circulation of rival newspaper Hayom, • It has been established that Benjamin which is financed by US-based Netanyahu Netanyahu and his wife Sara routinely supporter Sheldon Adelson. A recording received expensive gifts ranging from of a conversation between Netanyahu and cigars and champagne to expensive Mozes found by police on the computer items of jewellery requested from wealthy of Harrow (and since made public) is the businessmen. The bulk of accusations relate basis for the case, and Harrow has become to Arnon Milchan, an Israeli billionaire a state witness. Netanyahu claims he was Hollywood producer who is also known not serious about what was discussed in the for his past service as an agent acquiring recording and never intended to implement technologies for Israeli defence industries the deal. The police also recommended that and nuclear programme. Milchan’s business Mozes be charged with bribery.

1 What other cases are connected to his coalition partners, who are in no hurry for Netanyahu? elections, are expected to maintain support for the time being. Case 3000: submarines/naval vessels case • Finance Minister and Kulanu party leader • Netanyahu’s close aides, lawyers, and Moshe Kahlon has said publicly he will relatives, David Shimron and Yitzhak not demand Netanyahu resign because of Molcho are accused of promoting the Israeli police recommendations, but should resign if purchase of naval vessels from German indicted. Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett supplier ThyssenKrupp, in a deal from which and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked have they personally benefitted. Former senior adopted a wait and see approach. Shaked naval officers and former National Security has said publicly that according to the law, Council deputy director Avriel Bar Yosef Netanyahu does not have to resign even if are also suspects in the case, and former indicted. The point at which Netanyahu may Thyssenkrupp agent in Israel Miki Ganor have to resign involves many complex legal has become a state witness. Netanyahu is and political factors. likely to be questioned, though it is unclear whether as a witness or a suspect. If Netanyahu is forced aside, the Olmert precedent suggest a process of months Case 4000: Bezeq affair • Ehud Omert was forced aside by his coalition • Netanyahu’s appointee as Communications partner Ehud Barak and his Kadima party Ministry director general, Shlomo Filber, rival Tzipi Livni amid revelations emerging is accused of advancing the interests of from various police investigations in 2008, Bezeq, a large telecoms company owned even before police recommended charges. by Shaul Elovitch, who is a close associate The most prominent revelations at the time of Netanyahu. Related to this case, the related to his receipt of large sums in cash state comptroller has already reprimanded from US businessman Moshe Talansky. Netanyahu for failing to disclose his Olmert agreed to call a Kadima party relationship with Elovitch whilst holding the primary in which he did not stand in July portfolio as Minister of Communications. 2008, and then submitted his resignation as prime minister once Livni won the primary Sara Netanyahu Case in September 2008. Livni failed to form a • The AG has already declared his intention new government and elections were held to indict Sara Netanyahu for fraud and in February 2009, leaving Olmert as acting breach of trust. She is accused of ordering Prime Minister until a new government expensive meals fraudulently at public was formed in March 2009. (The AG expense worth hundreds of thousands of announced his initial intent to indict Olmert shekels. Pre-indictment hearings have been in November 2008 – two months after police taking place. The Prime Minister is not a recommendations – after he had resigned but suspect. while still acting Prime Minister, and Olmert was ultimately tried after leaving office. After a lengthy court process Olmert was convicted of bribery and breach of trust and served 16 What is the process following police months in prison.) recommendations? • No member of the current coalition has Recommendations will create a storm, but not yet played the role of Barak and Livni necessarily an ousting yet in Netanyahu’s case, and a key political • The police recommendations are a major question is at what stage they will – if political and media moment in Israel. There at all. Each coalition partner will make a have already been opposition and media calculation based on their assessment of the calls on Netanyahu’s coalition partners to toxicity of association with Netanyahu, their demand his resignation. However, there is no expected fortunes in a general election, and legal obligation on Netanyahu to resign, and the proximity to the end of the government’s

2 maximum term (November 2019). Recent certain what Mandelblit will decide. He will polling shows coalition parties losing consider not only the chances of conviction ground, creating a disincentive to bring but whether the issues are serious and about early elections, at least until one of the substantiated enough to justify the political parties calculates there is electoral advantage ramifications, including the likely resignation in taking a principled stance against of the Prime Minister. Netanyahu. • If he announces his intention to indict, • If forced, Netanyahu could announce his this will be another decision moment for intention to resign and call a party primary coalition partners as to whether to demand as Olmert did, and then resign when a Netanyahu’s resignation. The pressure new party leader is elected in a to force Netanyahu out is likely to be party primary. If Netanyahu resigns as considerably higher at this stage. prime minister, this is equivalent to the government resigning. At that point he could • Netanyahu himself has the legal option continue as acting prime minister, or he to request the vote to grant him could conceivably be deemed “permanently immunity, within 30 days of indictment. incapacitated” and the government would • If Mandelblit decides to indict, Netanyahu designate another minister to act as prime is entitled to hearings before the AG makes minister. A Likud primary, for which nearly a final decision. In the case of Avigdor 100,000 registered supporters would be Lieberman, pre-indictment hearings began eligible to vote, would be hotly contested nine months after the announcement of by serving ministers and figures currently the AG’s intention to indict, and the final outside of the Knesset like former minister indictment came 11 months after that, though Gideon Saar. Only a serving Knesset member the AG could be pressured to speed up once however, can form a government. a timetable for elections become clear. • If Netanyahu resigns, the President would A final indictment decision would likely be the consult with Knesset factions to see if any end for Netanyahu Knesset member can form a government. This could conceivably be another Likud MK • The final decision on indictment, if Netanyahu is who assumes leadership of the party, or an still in office, would likely bring overwhelming MK from another party. If not the Knesset pressure for him to go. The Basic Law on the dissolves, and elections are held within three Government allows the prime minister to remain months. The closer we are to November 2019, in office. However, if Netanyahu does not resign the more likely a newly elected Likud leader and is not forced to do so by his colleagues, the would go to elections rather than form a new Supreme Court will surely be petitioned. It has government. Two polls published by Statnet ruled in the past that a government member and Panels Research in August 2017, as well indicted with a grave offence should be removed as a Maariv poll in December found that by the Prime Minister. Netanyahu could argue Gideon Saar – who is currently not a member for various reasons that the Prime Minister is of Knesset – could win more Knesset seats not covered by these provisions. But it seems as leader of Likud than Netanyahu, with Saar unlikely that Netanyahu’s coalition partners potentially taking several seats away from or his party will allow him to continue whilst centrist parties Yesh Atid and Kulanu. embroiled in a trial. Kahlon has said publicly that if Netanyahu is indicted he should resign. If the AG recommends indictment, Netanyahu gets a hearing, taking months • In theory, the basic law allows the Prime Minister to remain in office until convicted of • It is likely to be several months between a serious crime up until a final appeal, after the police recommendations and the AG’s which a legal process kicks in to remove him decision whether to announce his intention automatically. to indict, though a representative of the AG has accompanied the police team during evidence collection. It is by no means

3 How may Netanyahu fight to stay in power? does not return in 100 days the government is deemed to have resigned. There is no • Minister Netanyahu has argued all along that precedent for the use of this law by a prime the accusations against him are baseless and minister under investigation. appears determined to fight to remain in power using all means at his disposal.

• The Prime Minister’s supporters have already changed the law, apparently intending to protect Netanyahu from the allegations he faces. According to Post legal affairs correspondentYonah Jeremy Bob, the new Recommendations Law, which prevents police from publicising recommendations in future cases, might apply to Netanyahu in the potentially serious Case 3000, since he is not yet officially a suspect. Though it seems unlikely that Netanyahu’s supporters will pursue other legal changes to protect him, it remains possible, and could certainly trigger a coalition crisis. So too would any attempt to secure a Knesset majority to grant Netanyahu immunity.

• The collapse of the coalition and new elections before the AG has indicted Netanyahu could put Mandelblit in a very difficult situation. Netanyahu’s supporters would argue that an indictment in the context of an election would be an unacceptable interference in the political process and that it is for the voters to decide if Netanyahu should stay in office. For this reason, many have speculated that Netanyahu may seek to bring about an election as a tactic to This report has been produced by BICOM’s fend off an indictment. This becomes more research team in consultation with British and likely as the statutory last date for the next Israeli security experts. We are grateful for their election (November 2019) draws nearer. An help. early election is typically brought about by a decision of the Prime Minister to dissolve the Copyright © Britain Israel Communications and Knesset and hold elections, and a Knesset Research Centre 2018 law is passed for that purpose. In such a scenario there is no obligation for Likud to hold a leadership primary since Netanyahu already ran unopposed to lead the party For more information please contact: into the previous election in 2016. It would Charlotte Henry, Senior Press Officer therefore take a revolt within the Likud to 020 3745 3348 replace Netanyahu as party leader before the 07879 644099 election. [email protected] • In theory another legal option exists, whereby a prime minister can be considered “temporarily unable to discharge his duties”, for up to 100 days. For that period an acting prime minister takes over, and if Netanyahu

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