DOCSLIB.ORG

US Growth Reporter

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
US Growth Reporter GROWTH REPORTER Europe Market Dynamics Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. INTRODUCTION . Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe. Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market. Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels . Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels . Reports on the 1st Quarter of 2017 . Week 01, 2017 till week 13, 2017 The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Copyright 2 ECONOMIC GROWTH IS IMPROVING AND SALES OF CONSUMER GOOD REMAIN STABLE Context . Economic Growth (GDP) in Europe in Q1 increased to +1.9% (source: Eurostat 28 countries ) which is an improvement on both Q4 and Q1 2016. The improving economic picture is expected to continue even allowing for the political uncertainty with elections still to come in the largest economies of UK, France, Germany and Italy. Trend . With Q1 distorted by a later Easter, Nominal growths were +0.2% and Volume Growth -0.7%. However Unit Value Growth remained stable at +0.9% indicating that there is little `inflationary` pressure in Consumer Packaged Goods in the first 3 months of 2017. The `big 5` Western European countries continue to have the lowest growth and the best momentum is still in Eastern Europe, Portugal and Spain. The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Copyright 3 DRIVERS OF UNIT VALUE GROWTH . Price Increases: typically when there is an upward pressure on the cost of goods (e.g commodity prices, global harvests, regional weather, price of crude oil, currency depreciation). Less Promotions: 23% of sales are sold on promotion in Europe *. There is still an upwards direction for branded promotions in a number of countries e.g France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands. Channel Switch: to move expensive retailers or formats. In Europe however, most sales momentum continues to the lower priced Discounter channels. Trading Up: to more expensive brands or to premium private label. Private label value share also continues to grow in Italy. Trading Down: to more smaller and more expensive packs. Products can also be `re engineered` with less volume (content) but sold at the same price (called `shrinkflation) to avoid shelf price increases . This is a Q1 trend in the UK following currency depreciation in 2016. The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Copyright * Strategic Planner 9 countries, FY 2016 4 REGIONAL SUMMARY – EUROPE Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Volume change Unit value change Nominal Value Growth 3,8% 3,6% 3,1% 3,0% 1,7% 2,6% 2,4% 2,2% 2,4% 2,0% 1,6% 2,1% 1,7% 1,8% 1,3% 1,7% 1,8% 1,7% 1,5% 1,3% 1,3% 2,3% 1,6% 1,1% 0,9% 1,7% 1,5% 0,7% 0,8% 0,9% 1,1% 1,0% 1,9% 1,3% 0,8% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% 0,7% 0,7% 0,2% 0,4% 0,3% 0,8% 0,1% 0,3% -0,6% -0,7% The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. 2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 © 2017 © Europe - Austria, Belgium , Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK. Copyright 5 Q1 2017 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2016) Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Volume growth Unit value Nominal Value Growth 11,6% 5,7% 1,0% 3,9% 3,4% 1,2% 2,8% 4,4% 5,9% 2,2% 2,3% 1,7% 1,3% 1,6% 0,0% 2,7% 2,1%1,2% 1,2% -3,2%0,9% 2,8% -0,8% 0,7% 0,5% 0,8% 0,1% 0,0% 1,7%-0,2% 0,0% 2,2%0,1% 0,2% 2,9% 2,2% -0,3%0,9% 1,9%-0,4% 0,9% -0,5% -0,9% 0,5% 0,3% -1,6% -1,2% -0,8% -1,9% -0,9% -2,1% -2,4% --4,3%1,5% -1,5% -2,3% -4,5% -6,7% -1,0% -1,6% -6,0% --0,6%7,3% The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Copyright 6 Q1 2017 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2016) Nominal Growth Finland Norway Russia Sweden Estonia Latvia Denmark Lithuania Belarus Ireland Nether- Great Britain lands Poland Germany Ukraine Belgium Czech Republic Slovakia Moldova France Austria Hungary Switzer- Romania land Slovenia Croatia Bosnia- Serbia Herze- Bulgaria Turkey govina Monte- Italy Mace- Portugal negro Spain donia Albania Greece The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Growth Rate above Europe Average Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average Copyright Growth Rate below “Zero” 7 Q1 2017 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2016) Unit Value Growth Finland Norway Russia Sweden Estonia Latvia Denmark Lithuania Ireland Belarus Nether- Great Britain lands Poland Germany Ukraine Belgium Czech Republic Slovakia Moldova France Austria Hungary Switzer- Romania land Slovenia Croatia Bosnia- Serbia Herze- Bulgaria Turkey govina Monte- Italy negro Mace- Portugal donia Spain Albania Greece The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Growth Rate above Europe Average Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average Copyright Growth Rate below “Zero” 8 Q1 2017 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2016) Volume Growth Finland Norway Russia Sweden Estonia Latvia Denmark Lithuania Ireland Belarus Nether- Great Britain lands Germany Poland Ukraine Belgium Czech Republic Slovakia Moldova France Austria Hungary Switzer- Romania land Slovenia Croatia Bosnia- Herze- Serbia Bulgaria Turkey govina Monte- Italy negro Mace- Portugal donia Spain Albania Greece The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Growth Rate above Europe Average Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average Copyright Growth Rate below “Zero” 9 MAJOR COUNTRIES The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © Copyright 10 FRANCE Highlights Context . On this 1st quarter, all FMCG departments sales are declining - with the exception of weather-sensitive categories & departments like beverages and ice-creams, due to heat and sunny weather this quarter. After several years the French market remains impacted by the price war (deflation on national brands) and promotional focus, enabling shoppers to find very good deals and savings. At the same time, consumers confirm their taste for innovations and quality products - making a kind of good balance between cheap, value offers on one hand, and premium items on the other one. Dynamic channels like ecommerce and convenience keep growing while hypermarkets and supermarkets are suffering. Trend . Calendar effect of Easter lowering the trend in Q1, as Easter happened in Q1 in 2016, but took place in Q2 in 2017. Nominal sales are negative for the first time for years now (-0.8%), with volumes remaining stable this quarter and thus not compensating the drop in value change. The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. 2016 had in France the less dynamic trend for years, which is now turning to a decrease in sales in 2017. © 2017 © Copyright 11 FRANCE Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth 2,2% 2,2% 0,2% 1,9% 1,7% 1,6% 0,2% 1,5% 1,3% 1,4% 0,2% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 2,0% 0,9% 1,1% 1,7% 0,3% 0,8% 0,7% 1,3%0,6% 0,6% 0,4% 0,8% 0,5% 1,1% 0,8% 0,0%0,6% 0,8% 0,2% 0,6% 0,4% 0,7% 0,9% 0,3% 0,4% 0,1% -0,2% 0,0% -0,7% -0,8% -0,8% The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. 2014 2015 2016 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 © 2017 © Click & Drive channel included from 2013 data (2014 trends) and Convenience Stores included from 2014 data (2015 trends); Copyright 12 GERMANY Highlights Context . The German economy continues to develop positively. Q4 2016 ends with an economic growth of +1,7%. In 2016 the year-round growth is 1.9%. This positive growth is mainly affected by the positive job expectations and the positive prospects of the international economic cycle. Apart from this, the expansive monetary policies of the EZB is pushing the economic growth. In 2017 the upturn is likely to continue. Four working days less lead to a weakened increase in GDP to an estimated growth of + 1.4%. Without this special effect, experts estimate, the German economy will expand at almost the same rate as in 2016. Trend . The FMCG market can not quite take the positive momentum of 2016 at the beginning of 2017 and is decreasing by -1.7% versus Q1 2016 . Although there was a sharp price increase again, the volume sold remained below the previous year's level (-3,1 % versus Q1 2016). In particular the weaker sales development of the hypermarkets over 2.500 m2 and the supermarkets up to 1.000 m2 curb the market – also in the hypermarkets the promotion pressure has been decreased. The Nielsen Company. The Nielsen Company. Confidentialand proprietary. © 2017 © An average price increase of 16 % makes fats and oils one of the strongest growth category (+ 8,9% versus Q1 2016). Copyright 13 GERMANY Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth 3,5% 2,8% 1,5% 2,5% 2,1% 0,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,3% 1,3% 1,5% 1,5% 2,0% 2,4% 2,8% 1,6% 1,7% 0,8% 1,5% 0,8% 0,4% 0,4% 1,7% 0,9% -0,1% 1,2% 1,0%0,2% 0,9% 1,2% 0,3% 0,3% -0,8% 1,1% -1,1%0,3% -0,8% -0,2% -0,2% -0,3% -0,6% -1,2% -1,5% --4,3%1,5% The Nielsen Company.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Occasional Paper 03 November 2020 ISSN 2515-4664
    Public Understanding of Economics and Economic Statistics Johnny Runge and Nathan Hudson Advisory team: Amy Sippitt Mike Hughes Jonathan Portes ESCoE Occasional Paper 03 November 2020 ISSN 2515-4664 OCCASIONAL PAPER Public Understanding of Economics and Economic Statistics Johnny Runge and Nathan Hudson ESCoE Occasional Paper No. 03 November 2020 Abstract This study explores the public understanding of economics and economics statistics, through mixed-methods research with the UK public, including 12 focus groups with 130 participants and a nationally representative survey with 1,665 respondents. It shows that people generally understand economic issues through the lens of their familiar personal economy rather than the abstract national economy. The research shows that large parts of the UK public have misperceptions about how economic figures, such as the unemployment and inflation rate, are collected and measured, and who they are produced and published by. This sometimes affected participants’ subsequent views of the perceived accuracy and reliability of economic statistics. Broadly, the focus groups suggested that people are often sceptical and cynical about any data they see, and that official economic data are subject to the same public scrutiny as any other data. In line with other research, the survey found consistent and substantial differences in economic knowledge and interest across different groups of the UK population. This report will be followed up with an engagement exercise to discuss findings with stakeholders, in order to draw out recommendations on how to improve the communication of economics and economic statistics to the public. Keywords: public understanding, public perceptions, communication, economic statistics JEL classification: Z00, D83 Johnny Runge, National Institute of Economic and Social Research and ESCoE, [email protected] and Nathan Hudson, National Institute of Economic and Social Research and ESCoE.
    [Show full text]
  • Fine Wine Market Report May 2020
    FINE WINE MARKET REPORT MAY 2020 Data source: Liv-Ex LOCKDOWN EASES, UNCERTAINTY LINGERS As lockdown gently eases, the markets are showing signs of a typical bear market rally led by the Nasdaq & the other US markets. With governments around the world turning on the spending taps and central banks reducing interest rates and restarting quantitative easing, every effort is being made to help keep the global economy from crashing into depression. The UK Government has extended the job retention scheme until October with mortgage payment holidays also extended until then. The UK has 10 million workers on furlough, with the US having lost a truly staggering 38.6 million jobs in just 9 weeks. Quite how many will be unable to return to their old jobs is the unknown. The greater that number, the longer the depression will be. The easing of lockdown restrictions around the world has helped to start the revival of the world economy, along with signs that some trials of vaccines to combat the coronavirus have produced encouraging test results. However, any easing measures are small and subject to reversal at any sign of a second wave of infections. So far trials have been small scale and are in the process of being expanded. A working vaccine in time for autumn is still a very long shot. History teaches us that all pandemics so far have had a second or even a third wave of infections. The markets are optimistic that a vaccine will be ready in time to at least make a second wave less disruptive economically, not requiring another severe lockdown.
    [Show full text]
  • Buried Alive in ‘Businessweek’
    Vol. 37, No.09a 233 Broadway, New York, New York 10279 • www.grantspub.com MAY 3, 2019 Buried alive in ‘Businessweek’ Things have come to such a sorry pass rency, the Fed chair, Jay Powell, replied, quality improvements where none ex- for the ancient scourge of paper money “It’s a major challenge. It’s one of the ists. They must make allowances for that Bloomberg Businessweek has written major challenges of our time.” cases in which today’s 15 cookies cost its obituary. Inflation is dead, declares Expanding on his boss’s remarks, what yesterday’s 16 did (clever packag- the cover of the April 22 edition (Hank Charles Evans, president of the Federal ing obscures the shrinkflation). Blaustein renders the image below). Reserve Bank of Chicago, last month ad- Considering the margin for er- “Dormant” is in fact the word, as we are vocated bumping up the inflation target ror—no less real for it being unac- about to demonstrate. by a few tenths of a percent. “Indeed,” knowledged—you wonder if there’s Businessweek isn’t wrong to ask what said Evans, “I would communicate com- a meaningful difference between a happened to the consumer price index. fort with core inflation rates of 2.5%, as 2.0% and 2.3% rate of inflation? Or Even the central bankers are feeling long as there is no obvious upward mo- even between 2.0% and 2.5%? sorry for it, rooting it higher. They want mentum and the path back toward 2% Evans implies that the Fed controls it, or, technically, the core personal con- can be well-managed.” the rate.
    [Show full text]
  • Quality Change and Inflation Measurement
    Quality Change and Inflation Measurement Stephanie Parsons[*] Photo: Peter Dazeley – Getty Images Abstract Households’ perceptions of inflation can differ from inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). One factor that may contribute to this difference is that the CPI seeks to take into account changes in the quality of many items that households buy. Around 2–3 per cent of the CPI basket is adjusted for quality change each quarter, with the prices of consumer durables most affected. While a range of methods have been developed to help statisticians identify and quantify quality change, it remains a challenging area of price measurement. Introduction Despite lower measured inflation in recent years, Headline inflation has declined from an average concerns about the cost of living – both the level of annual rate of around 2¾ per cent over the 2000s to prices and the rate of inflation – remain widespread [1] 1¾ per cent over the past five years. Households’ in the community. The quarterly NAB Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year, as Anxiety Survey consistently finds that the cost of measured by the Melbourne Institute of Applied living is a more significant source of concern for Economic and Social Research each month, have consumers than their own health, job security and also declined over the same period but remain ability to fund retirement, or government policy. around 2 percentage points higher than actual There are a number of potential explanations for inflation (Graph 1). Indeed, by this measure, why households remain concerned about the cost households’ inflation expectations have tended to of living in an environment of low measured be higher than actual inflation for more than two inflation: decades.
    [Show full text]
  • Business Downsizing During Recession Period 2009 – 2017
    Batziou, L. “Business Downsizing During 2018 Recession Period 2009 – 2017” SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Master Degree in Business Administration (MBA) DISSERTATION “BUSINESS DOWNSIZIMG DURING RECESSION PERIOD 2009- 2017” Author: Lamprini T. Batziou Supervisor: Aristeidis Bitzenis & Varvara Myloni PATRAS, 2018 HELLENIC OPEN UNIVERSITY - DISSERTATION 1 Batziou, L. “Business Downsizing During 2018 Recession Period 2009 – 2017” ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΑΝΟΙΚΤΟ ΠΑΝΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΙΟ ΣΧΟΛΗ ΚΟΙΝΩΝΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ Πρόγραμμα Μεταπτυχιακών Σπουδών στη Διοίκηση Επιχειρήσεων ( ΜΒΑ ) ΔΙΠΛΩΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΕΡΓΑΣΙΑ “Συρρίκνωση των επιχειρήσεων κατά την περίοδο της ύφεσης 2009 – 2017” Λαμπρινή Θ. Μπάτζιου ΕΠΙΠΒΛΕΠΩΝ: Αριστείδης Μπιτζένης & Βαρβάρα Μυλώνη HELLENIC OPEN UNIVERSITY - DISSERTATION 2 Batziou, L. “Business Downsizing During 2018 Recession Period 2009 – 2017” Πάτρα, Σεπτέμβριος 2018 Περίληψη Το θέμα « Η συρρίκνωση των επιχειρήσεων» έχει απασχολήσει κατά καιρούς, τόσο την ακαδημαϊκή όσο και την επιχειρησιακή κοινότητα. Ο βασικός λόγος αυτής της έρευνας ήταν για να γίνουν αντιληπτά τόσο τα αίτια που οδηγούν μια επιχείρηση στη μείωση του προσωπικού, όσο και να γίνει μια σύντομη καταγραφή των συνεπειών αυτής τη πρακτικής. Η μελέτη έγινε με βάση τη θεωρία επικρατεί γύρω από αυτό το θέμα, καθώς και παρατάθηκαν ορισμένες «μελέτες περίπτωσης» εταιριών οι οποίες προχώρησαν σε βαθιά συρρίκνωση. Ακόμα, γίνεται λόγος για τα πλεονεκτήματα και τα μειονεκτήματα από μια τέτοια μέθοδο αναφέρονται εκτενώς, επίσης. Δεδομένου ότι η χώρα μας έχει μπει σε βαθιά ύφεση, θεωρήθηκε αναγκαίο να γίνει μια αναφορά τόσο στον ιδιωτικό όσο και στο δημόσιο τομέα. Κατά πόσο δηλαδή, επηρεάστηκαν οι επιχειρήσεις που δραστηριοποιούνται στον ιδιωτικό και το δημόσιο τομέα. Η Ελλάδα είναι η μοναδική χώρα στην Ενωμένη Ευρώπη, η οποία βυθίστηκε σε βαθιά ύφεση ύστερα από το έτος 2010. Γι’ αυτό το λόγο, έγινε μια σύντομη αναφορά στο βασικό αίτιο που οδήγησε την Ελλάδα να ζητήσει τη χρηματοοικονομική στήριξη από τo Διεθνές Νομισματικό Tταμείο.
    [Show full text]
  • In Gold We Trust Report 2016
    Incrementum AG In Gold we Trust 2016 June 28th, 2016 In Gold we Trust 2016 Gold is back! With the strongest quarterly performance in 30 years, the precious metal in Q1 2016 emerged from the bear market that had been in force since 2013. A decisive factor in this comeback is growing uncertainty over the recovery of the post-Lehman economy. After years of administering high doses of monetary painkillers, will the Fed succeed in discontinuing the practice? Or is the entire therapy about to be fundamentally challenged? Generating growth and inflation remains the imperative of monetary Authors: policy. The systematic credit expansion required for this just doesn't want to get going. Even the ECB, which initially acted with restraint after the financial Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT crisis, is nowadays stuck in a perennial loop of monetary improvisation and [email protected] stimulus. General uncertainty has now increased even further after the Twitter @RonStoeferle surprise outcome of the Brexit referendum. Mark J. Valek, CAIA [email protected] After years of pursuing low interest rate policies, central banks have Twitter @MarkValek maneuvered themselves into a lose-lose situation: Both continuing and ending the low interest rate regime harbors considerable risks. In an attempt to finally achieve the desired boost to growth, a monetary Rubicon has been crossed in several currency areas with the imposition of negative interest rates. Gold is increasingly attractive in this environment. It used to be said that gold doesn't pay interest, now it can be said that it doesn't cost interest. As a last resort, even the radical measure of helicopter money is considered these days.
    [Show full text]
  • Lockton Food & Beverage Report
    Lockton Food & Beverage Report The tipping point: cost cutting pressure piles recall risk onto UK food & drink manufacturers. Broking done differently Methodology 200 respondents were surveyed in August and September 2017. Target respondents were Heads of New Product Development, Heads of Quality, Heads of Ops, Finance Directors, Heads of Logistics, Company Secretaries within UK based Food & Drink manufacturers and suppliers. Fieldwork completed by Coleman Parkes. Executive Summary Lockton’s inaugural food and beverage industry report has revealed that manufacturers are feeling the pinch as the British consumer, and in turn retailers, demand lower prices in the face of rising inflation. Three quarters (76%) of manufacturers surveyed claim they are under pressure to reduce their prices to meet retailer demands, including almost a third (31%) who strongly agree that this is the case. This pressure is increasing. Recent research expect the need for increased liability to price from analyst Nielson shows more than half them out of future contracts. All of this adds up (53%) of Britons are taking cost-cutting to greater risk for manufacturers; compromising measures, and switching to cheaper groceries is product quality in favour of cheaper ingredients the most popular tactic for saving money.1 leaves the door open for reduced sales and more product recalls, while neglecting health Almost all (98%) UK manufacturers surveyed and safety improvements runs the risk of more agree that continued price pressures will staff accidents. have an effect on the end product we find on the shelf. Many manufacturers have already Manufacturers must now strike a difficult resorted to ‘shrinkflation’ – reducing the size or balance between keeping costs low and amount of a product while keeping the cost the ensuring they are not increasing their same – with only 1% completely ruling this out vulnerability to liability claims, all while for the future.
    [Show full text]
  • Shrinkflation! a Bite Missing?
    Agenda Advancing economics in business Shrinkflation! A bite missing? While the price of a Toblerone bar has not changed in recent years, its size has—between 2009 and 2010, a standard bar became 30g lighter (from 200g to 170g), and by 2016 it had shrunk to 150g. What factors lead a firm to pass on a cost shock by changing the size of a product rather than its price? And what effect does this have on consumers and inflation statistics? ‘Shrinkflation’ is the media’s buzzword for what happens of a cost shock will be passed on. Typically, a greater when a firm makes its product smaller as an alternative proportion of an input cost change will be passed on if: to increasing its price. Not only has Toblerone shrunk, but Mars bars have recently reduced from 62.5g to 51g,1 and • the cost change affects the marginal cost of even Carlsberg beer bottles in Russia have got smaller.2 producing the output; Shrinkflation is a way for firms to pass on cost increases • the cost change is experienced by the whole market in a way that is less visible or more acceptable to (rather than by some firms only); and consumers than a price rise. Indeed, some consumer protection agencies are paying close attention to • the market is competitive.6 shrinkflation, such as the Israel Consumer Protection and Fair Trade Authority, which mandates that shrinkflation The pass-on of higher input costs to consumers is often is clearly signposted.3 Shrinkflation has also led to class understood and measured in terms of end-user prices.
    [Show full text]
  • Weekly Market Commentary July 26, 2021
    Weekly Market Commentary July 26, 2021 The Markets Shortest ever. Last week, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) finally announced the official dates for the recession that occurred in 2020. Economic activity peaked in February 2020 and bottomed in April 2020. That makes the pandemic recession the shortest in American history. According to the NBER, “The recent downturn had different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions. Nonetheless, the committee concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warranted the designation of this episode as a recession, even though the downturn was briefer than earlier contractions.” Since then, the United States’ economy has accelerated like a sports car on the German Autobahn, leading the developed world in the race toward economic recovery. A gradual slowdown was inevitable. However, three obstacles in the road may result in a sharp deceleration, reported The Economist. #1. Inflation. A shortage of goods triggered inflation. Consumers have noted some price hikes, although others are less clear obvious. Makers of cereal, snacks, candy, and other products, are offering unchanged packages, priced as usual, that hold smaller quantities of product, reported Axios. The technique is known as shrinkflation. #2. The end of pandemic policies. Enhanced unemployment benefits end in September, and the national moratorium on evictions ends in late July. The latter was the first of its kind and no one is certain how unwinding it will affect the economy, reported The Economist. Almost 36 percent of adults living in households that are behind on rent or mortgage payments, according to the latest Household Pulse Survey.
    [Show full text]
  • February 2021
    JIGSAW TALENT MANAGEMENT MONTHLY MARKET REPORT FEBRUARY 2021 SYDNEY MELBOURNE BRISBANE Level 43, Australia Square Level 9 Level 38 264-278 George St 2 Queen St, 71 Eagle St Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Brisbane QLD 4000 JIGSAW JOB STATS CURRENT MARKET DEMAND February 2021 Live Roles by Industry 74% 26% Permanent roles Contract roles Live Roles by Job Category Procurement Supply Chain Supply 2 Inflation Nation – The Rise of the Commodity 2021 is here. Jigsaw thought we would start the first report for 2021 with a macro view of economic inputs and outputs over the past 50 years for the US. The trends are taken from the US as it has more scale re population and capital. The trends that play out in the US typically impact the rest of the world and as the US is the key country for the debt market, we felt US data would better clarify key trends over the past 50 years. Before we explore the 50-year macro chart and add some insights, Jigsaw want to touch on the key issue potentially confronting procurement over the next 5 – 10 years - Stagflation. As financial assets lose favour with investors and US Treasury’s are shunned as a vehicle to store reserves, capital will start to seek out commodities to obtain value. Combined with high unemployment, business insolvency and increased central bank stimulus, this could transpire into stagflation. Businesses who are reliant on energy and commodities as key inputs to their operations will see both direct and in-direct costs escalate at a time where consumer demand could start to reduce considerably.
    [Show full text]
  • Investment Insight Friday, 11 August 2017
    Investment Insight Friday, 11 August 2017 Once bitten, twice shy: For several years, The Inside Track European equity analysts over-estimated the Paul Casson, who has managed the Artemis Pan-European Absolute Return fund since its launch in July earnings growth potential of European companies. 2014, has shown himself to be an astute observer of markets and of investor behaviour. The following So much so that this year, as we observe the are some of Paul’s recent views on the current state of the European investment universe. investment tide turning in favour of European Globally, economic data point to an acceleration in activity. The threat of inflation has replaced that of equities, they were probably too cautious. deflation. Central bankers recognise this change: the US Federal Reserve has begun to raise interest rates and the European Central Bank will follow in time. Wages across Europe are rising. Generally speaking, when people get paid more and are feeling more confident, they spend more. We expect this to happen Europe’s perceived political risks have abated for in the larger economies: Germany, the Netherlands and France. Meanwhile, for the peripheral countries the moment. The election of president Macron in still recovering from sharp recessions, the change is about more people having jobs – and any wage May and the commanding parliamentary majority growth at all here is an additional and welcome boost. This virtuous circle is the means by which GDP growth accelerates when demand rises. Bank lending follows – something we can already see he won in June seemed to signal a lurch back from happening.
    [Show full text]
  • FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - While the Global Economy Will Continue to Expand, Keep a Close Eye Upon Shifts in the Financial Market
    FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - While the global economy will continue to expand, keep a close eye upon shifts in the financial market - February 15, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Key points of our forecast The global economy will continue to follow an expansion track in 2018 and follow a firm footing in 2019. However, the growth momentum will gradually moderate due to the slowdown of the Chinese economy and peak-out of the IT cycle. Even though Oct-Dec quarter growth fell among major countries, economic conditions among each of the countries generally remain sound. Among the developed market (DM) countries, capital investment – which had led to concerns regarding secular stagnation – is showing signs of recovery due in part to policy support in the US. In the US, reform of the tax system is stimulating consumption and investment, thereby prolonging economic expansion. The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) under its new Chair, Jerome H. Powell, will likely continue to pursue interest rate hikes during 2018. Even so, given the inflation target still has a long way to go, a policy review is likely from 2019. The risks factors are a sharp fluctuation of the financial markets, slower-than-expected growth of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical risks in areas such as the Middle East. In particular, it will be necessary to keep a close eye upon US long-term interest rates and stock prices which are showing signs of a shift. Turning to the Japanese economy in FY2018, even though exports are forecast to slow down along with the moderation of the pace of recovery of the IT sector and the Chinese economy, capital investment should continue to follow a gradual recovery, supported by investment related to the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games and investment to boost productivity.
    [Show full text]