Bill Oppenheim, Dec. 10, 2009–Value Sires FROM THE DESK OF... Bill Oppenheim

VALUE SIRES: , WITH RUNNERS Four of the top five sires on the 2009 General Sire List (per Bloodhorse.com, abbreviated GSL) are standing “The uptick continues: both the Tattersalls December mixed for an average of one-third less in 2010 than what they sale and the Arqana mixed sale recorded 14 percent stood for in 2009. Three of the four stand at either increases in gross and slight gains in average over 2008. At Lane=s End (A.P. Indy and ) or Ashford Tattersalls, despite a 20 percent drop in the number (Giant=s Causeway), two farms who clearly >got it= catalogued, 10 percent more horses were sold, and the when it came to deciding 2010 stud fees; the fourth is clearance rate from the catalogue improved from 47 percent WinStar=s Distorted Humor. This series of articles to 64 percent. All the indicators say 2008 was the bottom aspires to be about value, particularly in North America, for the mixed sale market, so the declines from 2007 tell us so there are a number of top sires which can be what’s really happening: Arqana down 23 percent in gross, wholeheartedly recommended (GSL #3, Tiznow, and #6, Street Cry, for instance). However, at least for 21 percent in average; Tatts down 44 percent in gross top-level sires, we couldn=t say they represent quite the (mostly at the top and bottom), a third in average.” value next year as these others we=re endorsing. Their – Bill Oppenheim stud fees remained stable for 2010, which puts them at a value disadvantage compared to other top sires which have dropped around a third. A.P. Indy, the most expensive of the four, has twice been Champion Sire in North America, and five times the leading sire by A Runner Index, using the APEX system. Number five on the GSL this year, and the sire of 25 Grade I winners in 14 crops of racing age, he=ll be 21 next year. Lane=s End dropped his fee 40 percent, from $250,000 to $150,000. As long as you=re breeding for North American racing, he=s been the number one sire for over a decade. Lane=s End also ARQANA DECEMBER SALES TOTALS dropped two-time leading sire Smart Strike by 40 YEAR CAT RING SOLD %W/D %R/S %S/C GROSS AVE percent, from $125,000 to $75,000. Considering he=s 2009 1,109 933 682 8.4% 73.1% 66.9% €14,634,000 €21,457 proven at all ages, over all surfaces, and in Europe as 2008 1,022 918 629 10.2% 68.5% 61.5% €12,814,000 €20,372 well, this is a really righteous price. Both Smart Strike 2007 1,163 1,082 698 7.0% 64.5% 60.0% €19,059,000 €27,305 (he=ll be 18 next year) and A.P. Indy will be standing in 2006 812 744 582 8.4% 78.2% 71.7% €18,353,000 €31,534 2010 for half of what they stood for in 2008. Distorted Humor, who is rising 17 himself, drops another 33 percent, from $150,000 to $100,000--a third of what he stood for at his peak. Considering he=s number two on the 2009 GSL, he hasn=t suddenly become a worse sire; quite the opposite. The same is also true for the 2009 number one, Giant=s Causeway. Ashford took the scythe to his stud fee in 2008, dropping him from $225,000 to $125,000; but he too is down another quarter for 2010. I=ve thought for a TATTERSALLS DECEMBER MIXED SALE couple of years he=d be leading sire (by progeny (YEARLINGS, MARES AND FOALS) IN GUINEAS earnings) sooner rather than later because, although YEAR CAT RING SOLD %W/D %R/S %S/C GROSS AVE he=s always had huge crops, all but his third crop have 2009 2,183 1,780 1,399 18.5% 78.6% 64.1% 56,903,100 40,674 consistently delivered literally legions of good- to 2008 2,728 2,024 1,275 25.8% 63.0% 46.7% 49,901,250 39,138 high-class runners. 2007 3,066 2,531 1,690 17.4% 66.8% 55.1% 102,269,400 60,514 It=s a lot of money, still, paying $100,000 or so to 2006 2,815 2,362 1,799 16.1% 76.2% 63.9% 100,630,900 55,937 breed to these top horses; but you have to say, do you not, that when you can breed to four of the top five on the General Sire List for half or less what they cost Data compiled by Brianne Stanley three years ago--these are pretty good offers. Oppenheim cont. With top horses like Tale of Ekati (now retired) and GI Only two other sires with runners standing for Breeders= Cup Classic second Gio Ponti (remains in $50,000 or more made this list, and they are both training), he has proven he can play in the big leagues among five North American stallions with first in the sire world. Claiborne=s Arch (remains at $25,000) three-year-olds of 2009, which make the first-foals- and Castleton Lyons=s Bernstein ($25,000 from 2006 sire class look like a very good one. Number $27,500) have both proven both very useful and seven on the GSL, and of course leading second-crop versatile sires. Arch, a son of Kris S. who presents a sire, is Medaglia D=Oro, who laid fears of potential good mid-range option from the Roberto line, has a biases to rest when Godolphin=s two-year-old colt, particularly good record in Europe; Bernstein, who had Passion for Gold, won the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud a good record from his sojourns to Argentina, has in France on November 14 (Godolphin=s Al Zir, also by continued his improvement since his move from Buck Medaglia, had also run third in the G1 Racing Post Pond. His first Castleton Lyons crop are three-year-olds, Trophy in October). So, not just a filly sire, and not just and he=s stood the raise well. Also at $25,000 (from a good sire in North America. He=s value at $100,000 $30,000) is Three Chimneys= Sky Mesa, who recovered (up from $40,000 this year) because he could have from a slow first-crop start to be Leading Second-Crop gone to $150,000 and didn=t. Sire last year, and is second on this year=s Third-Crop The other four second-crop sires also make this list Sire list to Empire Maker. He also ranked third on the because nearly always sires who start out this way will 2008 Juvenile Sire List (Bernstein, from his first be standing for more later on in their careers than Castleton Lyons crop, was fourth). they=re standing for now. They are ($50,000), sire El Corredor ran a close second to Tiznow on the of a Breeders= Cup winner in each of his first two crops; 2005 Freshman Sire List, but has subsequently turned Speightstown ($35,000), sire of six graded/group out to be just a somewhat above-average sire (1.58 stakes winners (abbreviated GSW) this year, including APEX Runner Index, 1.38 ABC Index; ranked 45th on Grade 1 winner Lord Shanakill, Grade II winner the 2008 GSL, 52nd this year). Munnings, and the runner-up in both Breeders= Cup The future looks brighter for his half-brother Roman juvenile turf races; Birdstone ($30,000), winner of the Ruler, who Andrew Caulfield wrote about on Tuesday. GI Champagne, GI Belmont, and GI Travers, and sire of He is number two on the 2009 Freshman Sire list, now two Classic winners (Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) only $4,000 behind leader . Nothing can fool in his first crop, even if his sire, Grindstone, does now you more than freshman sires--who would have stand in Oregon; and Candy Ride ($25,000), unbeaten thought Posse would be standing for $10,000 in New on the racecourse and sire of five GSWs in his first York after he ran away with the 2007 freshman sire crop. He seems to have a new black-type horse every title?--but Roman Ruler does impress as the type whose time you open up the paper. stock are going to improve with age. He remains at Seven sires standing for between $25,000-$35,000 $20,000, also at Hill >n= Dale. Offlee Wild (remains at get the nod (from here down, the criterion is not $7,500!) has been a complete revelation himself. By whether their stud fees dropped, but just whether they out of a half-sister to strike this observer as good value for the money)-- , nothing about him shouted Leading starting with two more from Lane=s End, both at Freshman Sire. Roman Ruler may outgun him this $35,000. The first is Dixie Union (remains at $35,000), month, but when bounced back from her who doesn=t necessarily feature towards the top of the GI Alcibiades defeat to win the GI Breeders= Cup leading sire lists, but he is very capable, especially for Juvenile Fillies=, his reputation was made. Darley two-year-olds. decided to leave him at $7,500, but even though He probably had the best two-year-old filly in the freshman sire figures are notoriously misleading, that country this year, Hot Dixie Chick, but she won=t be has to qualify as one of the bargains of the year. champion because she didn=t make the Breeders= Cup. The connections of Freshman Sire List number four, Lemon Drop Kid ($35,000, from $50,000) is a model of Kitten=s Joy, took him out of contention for consistency: he was 10th on the GSL in 2007, 14th in consideration of value when they jumped him to 2008, and is 14th again this year. He is short on Grade $40,000, since you can breed to the three horses in I winners, perhaps, but he is so solid at all other levels front of him for $7,500, $20,000 and $10,000, that for $35,000 it=s easily worth the gamble that more respectively. Grade I winners are in the pipeline. But I would be seriously looking at Wintergreen=s Stormy Atlantic ($35,000 from $45,000) has been at one-eyed Pollard=s Vision, number three on the Hill >n= Dale since moving up from Florida, where he Freshman Sire List. Somebody referred to Carson City made a successful start at Bridlewood. He has finished as a sire of sires, which I would say is stretching it: 10th, 12th, 8th, and now 13th on the GSL the last four City Zip continues to have remarkable figures for a years. That also reads like a very reliable sire for the $10,000 stallion, and Cuvee is doing well enough, but money. Ashford=s Tale of the Cat (remains at $30,000) they hardly qualify Carson City--a most admirable sire is 10th on the GSL this year, and was the champion of racehorses--as a sire of sires. However, Pollard=s juvenile sire with his second crop in 2003. Vision is doing his part. He would never have figured on anybody=s list of prospective top five freshman sires, Oppenheim cont. but there he is. He won or placed in six Grade II-Grade III Derbies There=s some very attractive value among proven (won the GII Illinois and Grade III Lone Star, placed in horses at the $10,000 level. Lane=s End=s City Zip, had Lousiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) as a 18 two-year-old winners, four black-type winners three-year-old, and placed in two Grade I=s at four (abbreviated BTW), including unbeaten Run Away and (including a third to Offlee Wild in what then looked like Hide, in his first Kentucky crop in 2008. This year, in a weak renewal of the GI Suburban H.), so it=s not as if his second Kentucky crop, City Zip=s had no fewer than he was devoid of credentials. He is $10,000 next year 35 two-year-old winners and ranks number four on the (from $5,000). national Two-Year-Old Sire List. Yet he drops 20 Gainesway=s Afleet Alex, the best three-year-old of percent, from $12,500; that has to qualify as good 2005, now ranks sixth on the 2009 Freshman Sire List, value. Darley stands two at $10,000 who merit a and, after a slow start, looks to me like he is getting mention. E Dubai, who has always scored well on the plenty who are showing promise, but are more likely to APEX scale (2.38 A Index, 1.90 ABC Index), has four make three-year-olds--so his sixth placing can only be a GSW this year--his oldest are just five-year-olds--but good sign. He is down to $15,000 (from $20,000 this drops from $15,000 to $10,000. We loved him at year, and $40,000 when he went to stud in 2006), and $15,000, so we must love him even more at $10,000-- wouldn=t be the worst gamble to improve on that and we do, genuinely. placing next year, when he has three-year-olds. More There=s a lot to be said for useful $10,000 stallions. speculatively, I would point out Freshman Sire List Holy Bull, rising 19 now (remains at $10,000), is the number 10, Leroidesanimaux ($15,000 from $17,500), sire of GI Breeders= Cup Juvenile winner, champion a crack miler bred in Brazil, by Blushing Groom=s son juvenile, and successful sire Macho Uno; GI Kentucky Candy Stripes, out of a half-sister to the dam of Dansili; Derby winner Giacomo; and GI Stephen Foster winner and two more Hill >n= Dale stallions, number 11 Flashy Bull. Flashy Bull is a good idea for a promising Freshman Sire Closing Argument, the 2005 GI young mare, and by the way, talk about an outcross. second, who has 19 winners but drops He=s by Great Above, from the Rough=n Tumble line from $12,500 to $5,000; and number thirteen, Grand (very American), out of a mare by Al Hattab, out of a Reward, an impeccably-bred son of Storm Cat out of mare by Grey Dawn II, Believe it or not, he=s a complete Serena=s Song. He=s sired 22 winners, and drops to outcross to ! And my final $10,000 nominee is $6,500 from $8,500. We must also put in a good word Vinery=s Pure Prize. Sire of the near-$2 million-earner for Wildcat Heir, who stands at Journeyman Stud, and multiple Grade I winner Pure Clan >up north,= he has Florida, not (yet) in Kentucky. He ranks fifth on the also been a very successful sire in Argentina. He=s Freshman Sire List and at this writing has 37 down from $12,500 this year, and is another who has two-year-old winners, one short of the modern-day consistently racked up good APEX ratings (2.35 A record set by Oasis Dream last year. Index, 1.81 ABC Index) for this stud fee range. Now a few older stallions standing at under $20,000, Finally, three candidates at bargain-basement $7,500 and who else must kick us off but Forestry. If I loved fees. First (these are alphabetical) we have Hill >n= Dale=s him this year at $40,000 I must really love him for next Indygo Shiner, a Grade III winner on the turf at Churchill year at $17,500, less than half that price. But talk Downs, by A.P. Indy out of a Grade III-winning full about being in the freezer! In 2006, when he had his sister to Toussaud, Grade I winner and dam of Empire first five-year-olds racing, in crops which included Maker and Chester House. This is Indygo Shiner=s Discreet Cat and the world record-priced , second year as a >reverse shuttler=; he went to stud in The Green Monkey, Forestry ranked number 20 on the Argentina in 2003. His first crop there included the dual General Sire List, and his stud fee for 2007 jumped to Group 3 winner in Dubai, My Indy, and his second crop $125,000. Also standing at Taylor Made, he looked like included four Group 1 winners in Argentina (three in he was going to be the next Unbridled=s Song. But it=s Classics), and So Shiny, Group 1-placed in Argentina been just about all downhill from there. He ranked 55rd and winner of the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas in Dubai. on the 2007 GSL, 73rd in 2008 (stood for $100,000), Claiborne repatriates Stroll after a two-year lease to and ranks 62nd this year. Nine weanlings by him, bred Italy. He had only 57 foals in his first two crops, but a in the year of a $100,000 stud fee, have averaged 3.95 A Runner Index grabs your attention. He was a $39,333 at the mixed sales. The gamble is that his Grade I winner himself, by Pulpit. And the final nominee three crops out of mares bred to a six-figure stallion is Ashford=s Van Nistelrooy, a son of Storm Cat who (foals of 2007-2009) will ignite a comeback. He really kicked off with four two-year-old GSW and was fourth looked like he was poised to become a major sire son of on the 2007 Freshman Sire List from his first crop. Storm Cat three years ago. Though he=s only 14th on the 2009 third-crop sire list, Proud Citizen, by Gone West and second to War hist stud fee has been cut in half for 2010, and there Emblem in the 2002 GI Kentucky Derby, was third on was no fluke about that good first-crop two-year-old the 2007 Freshman Sire List and second on the 2008 form. He=s also the sire of the very good mare Second-crop Sire List, but he=s running only 11th on the Boundless from his first crop in New Zealand. third-crop sire list this year. He=d been jumped to $30,000 for 2009, but Airdrie has slashed him in half, Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at [email protected]. to $15,000 for 2010. That looks fair value, considering Please cc TDN at [email protected]. his bright start. P TDN HEADLINE NEWS • 12/10/09 • PAGE 9 of 9 • thoroughbreddailynews.com OPPENHEIM’S RECOMMENDED 'VALUE' KENTUCKY SIRES with RUNNERS Arranged in descending order by 2010 stud fee, then alphabetically 2003-8/2/2009 2010 2009 A ABC SIRE YR HIS SIRE 1st Fls ST FARM Fee Fee Index Index A.P. INDY 1989 SEATTLE SLEW 1994 KY LANE'S END 150000 250000 5.10 2.93 DISTORTED HUMOR 1993 FORTY NINER 2000 KY WINSTAR 100000 150000 3.02 2.48 GIANT'S CAUSEWAY 1997 STORM CAT 2002 KY ASHFORD 100000 125000 2.87 2.06 MEDAGLIA D'ORO 1999 EL PRADO 2006 KY DARLEY 100000 40000 3.55 2.42 SMART STRIKE 1992 MR. PROSPECTOR 1998 KY LANE'S END 75000 125000 3.38 2.07 TAPIT 2001 PULPIT 2006 KY GAINESWAY 50000 35000 3.76 1.69 DIXIE UNION 1997 DIXIELAND BAND 2002 KY LANE'S END 35000 35000 2.10 1.56 LEMON DROP KID 1996 KINGMAMBO 2002 KY LANE'S END 35000 50000 3.06 2.45 SPEIGHTSTOWN 1998 GONE WEST 2006 KY WINSTAR 35000 35000 3.85 2.88 STORMY ATLANTIC 1994 STORM CAT 2000 KY HILL 'N' DALE 35000 45000 2.39 1.71 BIRDSTONE 2001 GRINDSTONE 2006 KY GAINESWAY 30000 10000 3.38 1.35 TALE OF THE CAT 1994 STORM CAT 2000 KY ASHFORD 30000 30000 1.70 1.62 ARCH 1995 KRIS S. 2000 KY CLAIBORNE 25000 25000 1.73 1.84 BERNSTEIN 1997 STORM CAT 2002 KY CASTLETON LYONS 25000 27500 2.70 1.40 CANDY RIDE 1999 RIDE THE RAILS 2006 KY LANES END 25000 12500 4.70 2.14 SKY MESA 2000 PULPIT 2005 KY THREE CHIMNEYS 25000 30000 2.54 1.95 ROMAN RULER 2002 FUSAICHI PEGASUS 2007 KY HILL 'N' DALE 20000 20000 FORESTRY 1996 STORM CAT 2001 KY TAYLOR MADE 17500 40000 2.65 1.77 AFLEET ALEX 2002 NORTHERN AFLEET 2007 KY GAINESWAY 15000 20000 LEROIDESANIMAUX 2000 CANDY STRIPES 2007 KY STONEWALL 15000 17500 PROUD CITIZEN 1999 GONE WEST 2005 KY AIRDRIE 15000 30000 1.31 1.39 CITY ZIP 1998 CARSON CITY 2003 KY LANES END 10000 12500 2.57 2.05 E DUBAI 1998 MR. PROSPECTOR 2004 KY DARLEY 10000 15000 2.38 1.90 HOLY BULL 1991 GREAT ABOVE 1996 KY DARLEY 10000 10000 1.60 1.54 POLLARD'S VISION 2001 CARSON CITY 2007 KY WINTERGREEN 10000 5000 PURE PRIZE 1998 STORM CAT 2004 KY VINERY 10000 12500 2.35 1.81 INDYGO SHINER 1998 A P INDY 2010 KY HILL 'N' DALE 7500 7500 OFFLEE WILD 2000 WILD AGAIN 2007 KY DARLEY 7500 7500 STROLL 2000 PULPIT 2006 KY CLAIBORNE 7500 3.95 1.64 VAN NISTELROOY 2000 STORM CAT 2005 KY ASHFORD 7500 15000 1.24 1.33 GRAND REWARD 2001 STORM CAT 2007 KY HILL 'N' DALE 6500 8500 CLOSING ARGUMENT 2002 SUCCESSFUL APPEAL 2007 KY HILL 'N' DALE 5000 12500

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