Race 9

Win contenders: #7 Core Beliefs – Fair odds 2/1 #3 Bolt d'Oro – Fair odds 3/2 #6 – Fair odds 2/1

Exacta: Box 7,3 Box 7,6

I am going to pick Core Beliefs to post the upset in the Santa Anita Derby and, at the least, to run a lot better than his odds will suggest he can run. After two third place finishes in sprints in January and February, Core Beliefs stretched out to two turns and improved tremendously, drawing off by three lengths with a 109 Equibase Speed Figure. This was on par with the 108 figure Justify earned winning a two-turn race three days later. Core Beliefs was sired by , whose progeny have proven themselves at top levels just as the sire did. Using Stats Race Lens to get a feeling for pedigrees that have produced classic talent, it is easy to find the sons and daughters of Quality Road have won 8 of 39 stakes races for three year olds on dirt over the past few years, including 2017 winner and multiple stakes winner . Although the 109 figure effort Core Beliefs put forth last month is well short of the 118 figure Bolt d'Oro earned in the San Felipe, the colt has potential to improve markedly off the effort in his second route and he will have to do just that because he needs to finish first or second to get the points required to run in the . Using his early speed as he did when victorious over the track last month and with the only other horse likely to be on or near the early lead being Justify, Core Beliefs should be in the thick of the action from start to finish.

Except for an exceptionally wide trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall when finishing third, Bolt d'Oro has made no mistakes, winning all four of his other races. In last month's , Bolt d'Oro showed his battle- hardened nature once again when battling head-and-head the length of the stretch with McKinzie before losing by a head. After a steward's inquiry, McKinzie (who will miss the Kentucky Derby) was placed second and Bolt d'Oro was moved up to first. Being as he had been away from the races for four months prior to that, the 118 figure earned was exceptional. With 64 points on the "Road to the Derby" leaderboard, a spot in the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby is virtually assured so Bolt d'Oro may only need a good effort to keep fit to move on to the big dance next month. However, in his current form, even his "B" level race may be good enough to win.

Justify has been impressive in both his races to date. He won his debut by almost 10 lengths and then by six and one-half lengths last month in his second career start and in spite of coming out of the gate a bit tardily. Like Core Beliefs, this will be the second two-turn start for Justify and improvement off his 108 figure last out can be expected. Justify was sired by Scat Daddy, who may have three horses in the starting gate in Louisville next month if Justify finishes first or second to gain his first points on the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" leaderboard. The other two Scat Daddy colts include Flameaway and the most impressive winner of the U.A.E. Derby last weekend, . Certainly, if the hype surrounding how big, strong and fast Justify may be is warranted, he will win the Santa Anita Derby and create a lot of buzz in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby.

Pick 3: Race 9 – Core Beliefs, Bolt d'Oro, Justify Race 10 – Midnight Crossing, Thundering Sky Race 11 – Spectator,